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Transcript of Niners Magic, Schlitt Happens, a Red Sox Postmortem, the Seahawks Ceiling, and Week 5 NFL Picks With Kevin Hench and Joe House

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Transcription of Niners Magic, Schlitt Happens, a Red Sox Postmortem, the Seahawks Ceiling, and Week 5 NFL Picks With Kevin Hench and Joe House from The Bill Simmons Podcast Podcast
00:00:00

The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by Fandil Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by the Ringer podcast Network, where you can find me on two other podcasts, the Prestige TV podcast. We are breaking down Task every Sunday night right after it runs on HBO. Fifth episode, it's really something. So we are on right after. You can find it, download it, watch it on Spotify, on YouTube, wherever you get it. Rewatchables. We're doing Redford Month. And on Monday, we're doing Jeremiah Johnson, one of my dad's two favorite movies. It is unlike... It might be the ultimate mountain man movie that's ever been made. It's one of Redford's, I think, best performances. It's a good one for his catalog, which we talked about on the podcast, but that's actually on Tubi. So if you want to watch that before Monday, you can find it. Also, big news on the rewatchables front. Eddie and the Cruisers, a movie we've been dying to do for a couple of years, is He's going to be on TMC at 11: 30 PM on Monday, October 13th. So record it, watch it live, whatever, because we have to do Eddie and the Cruisers.

00:01:10

It is one of the great bad cable movies of all time, but it's not bad. It's actually awesome. And I'm so glad it's running because there's some rewatchable movies that we want to do and they just don't exist. I don't know what happens to them. Like the rights get screwed up or whatever happens to some of these movies, like The Sure Thing or Reconcilable Differences, Kiss of Death with nick Cage, can't be found. But there's a million of these. It might be one of my crusades in 2026 to get these movies back in the eyes and ears of people that should be watching them, and more importantly, for the rewatchables. All right, before we talk about what's coming up on the podcast, Niners of Rams, tonight. So this was on during the Red Sox game that we're going to be talking about later. And then actually, the fourth quarter was happening as Kevin Hinch and I were recording our Red Sox postmortem and talking about Schlittler and what this means for the Yankees. Red Sox rivalry. What are the Silver Linings? We did a whole bunch of stuff, and it was really fun. And then the game went in overtime.

00:02:08

So I actually watched the overtime just now, and the Rams went for it on fourth and 1 with a typical terrible Sean McBay fourth and 1 call. This is like, for what a genius he is as an offensive mind and what a great coach he is. And I think he's one of the best five or six coaches. It's stunning how bad some of his big fourth and 1 or season on the line, game on the line. Some of his calls, I was like, I'm watching it going, please don't run Williams right into the middle in front of eight guys. Just do the play where Puka just flares out and he throws it for two yards. Or fake that, you're going to... No, nothing. The Niners end up stealing it. The Niners are now four and one, even though half of their team is injured. Mac Jones, who looked like he was playing on one leg and just got hurt over and over again during the game, finished with 342 for two touch downs. Kendrick Bourne was over 100 yards. These are all former failed Patriots. This is the year of former failed Patriots. Why is God torturing us?

00:03:05

But it was a great win for the Niners. The Rams fall to three and two. And I think the big winner might have been the Seahawks because I still think the Seahawks are the live bet in that division. Joe House and I are going to talk about that later. But it was a really, really great Thursday game. And for a second, it felt like another tie was in play. There are never ties ever. We had a tie Sunday, and it felt like there would be another one today. But the Rams really blew it. They ended up, I I think they were eight and a half, 8 point, nine point favorites. It was over seven by the time game time happened and the Niners playing on short rest. It seemed like a throw away game for them in a lot of ways, and it wasn't. Somehow they are now four and one. Their over and under for the year was 10 and a half. It seemed like when they started getting all these injuries, no way. No way they're hitting that over. Now they're four and one. Can they get to 11 and six? Bizarre. They've had some very strange games this season.

00:04:04

The Rams, I just feel like, are probably the most talented team in that division and are somehow a game back with Seattle looming. As we talk about later with House, I really like that Seattle team. House and I are coming up later. We're breaking down the week 5 slate. We're doing Ringer 107 picks. Coming up next, my buddy Kevin Hensch, Red Sox Post-Morning. We're going to talk about the Yankees. Do they actually have some World Series chances? We're going to try to jinks them as much as we can. It's all coming up next. We're going to take a break, and then our friends from ProJam. This is the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on. Fanduel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game, parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live. Your way, so you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all, when you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts, recently. Guess what I did? Use FanDuel. Super fun. Download the app or go to fandil.

00:05:01

Com/bs to get started. Must be 21 plus present in select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Get in a promo call, win a 100 game, or visit rg-help. Com. Call 888-789-777 or visit ccpg. Org. Com. At gmail. Com/chat. Com. All right, recording the top part of the podcast. It's a little before eight o'clock on Thursday night. The Red Sox season is over. The Niners-Rams game is going. We're going to try this one. We're going to have the NFL game on as my buddy Kevin Hinch and I recap the end of the Red Sox next season. A team that was lovable, frustrating, and you saw all of it over the course of this series. It all came down a one-inning, Hinch. A four-run-inning with our rookie early out there, and our defense let us down, and all of a sudden, the season was over.

00:06:16

I mean, really, the series was lost last night. Jaron Durand, being built like D. K. Metcalf, not always great for baseball. He's a bodybuilder. And so he did all the hard work of getting to Aaron Judges' pop fly. And then the simple part, which is also D. K. 'S problem, by the way, the simple part of just squeezing it in your mitts got away from him. So that's one run that they shouldn't have scored And then obviously, if Seydan gets the bunt down last night, Sogard's fly ball is the sack fly. We win the game 4-3. Instead of losing the game 4-3, we vanquish the evil empire. But Seydan's bunt... Now, believe I wish I was in Zoe Simmons' soccer game last night. So Seydan, Cora puts the bunt on first and second, nobody out. You're like, definitely the right baseball play in a playoff game, for sure. Then Seydan proceeds to stab at a pitch 14 inches outside the strike zone. And I'm like, you got to take the bunt off. This guy is not going to execute a bunt. And so he doesn't. He leaves the bunt on and say, Don, bounce it on the fly to the rubber, which, ironically, is further than he hit a ball for eight weeks in July and August.

00:07:38

He had a slump after the All-Star break where he just never hit the ball, and then he rips a bunt back to the pitcher's mound. They don't advance the runners. They lose last night by a run. And just tonight felt pre-ordained. I was like, when you let a team off the hook, when you have them, Cora going and getting Bayo in the third. He was not messing around. He knew he went for it last night, and we had him, and we let him off the hook. And then you and I have a lot of experience with Kam Schlittler Very little of it is good as Roto owners who now have to keep him for $19.

00:08:22

We actually have to. He played himself on our roster next year. Hinching I picked him up, what was it, mid-July for We took a flyer. He had big strikeout numbers. And he had some good starts for us, but nothing, nothing, nothing.

00:08:36

Historic dominance.

00:08:40

A shitty lineup.

00:08:42

Yes. And that's the thing. This is not our team. Our best player is out for the season, Roman Anthony, the best player in a generation for the Red Sox. Willier Abreu, a top five player on this roster, also essentially He was essentially out for the season. He never got his timing back. So he came back and dressed, but he didn't do anything after he came back. Our first baseman, Tristan Kassas, lost him for the season. And then we lost Hauke, Cutter Crawford, Hunter Dobbins, and Richard Fitts. Those are four guys who could have made 120 starts. They made 30 starts. So you end up with, why are you guys starting Conley early in a playoff game?

00:09:28

And G Alito, who He made it all the way to the end of September to get his bonus for next year and then got hurt.

00:09:34

We're on our 11th starter. That's why this kid who doesn't look like he's old enough to drink is starting a deciding game in Yankee Stadium. This is modern baseball. You have to have a staff where six guys have TJ, and that's how you get through the season. But so obviously, going back to Sunday, I was like, We have to lose to the tigers. We have to lose to the tigers. And this was- Yeah, you were comparing it to the Joe Milton game. Yeah, it was.

00:10:05

It was the same thing.

00:10:07

David Hamilton and Jose Deleon, Joe Milton, us on the last day of the season where we absolutely have to lose. Butch Coolidge is supposed to take- Hold on.

00:10:17

The irony of David Hamilton, who had the worst bunting sequence, not just of the season, but of the decade, that cost us the extra win that we would have had to maybe even sniff something better than where we ended up.

00:10:31

There's three bunting attempts in San Diego where it's like you're an under 200 hitter, middle infielder, utility infielder.

00:10:38

With no power.

00:10:39

Borderline guy. This obviously is a skill you have to have. You must do this You must do this all the time. And it's like, Nope, can't bunt as nobody. I feel like Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino. Why can't anybody bunt? I'm just angry.

00:10:55

That's the thing about these 160 new game seasons that we experience day to day on our tech thread, these little moments that happen during the six months. And then when you get to the playoffs, they all come back. Like Rafaela, who I think is a fantastic center fielder, he has one weakness on those little stupid pop fives in the mid-center that he's always laid on and he's always diving wrong. And how many times did that happen this year? Eight?

00:11:21

It's insane for a guy who catches everything in the triangle. You're like, How is he even there? And I don't know, he just must not get a good read because the last 22 pop flies in front of him, he's laid out, got leather on them, and caught zero of them. So we had to lose so we could face the guardians who obviously they were going to pump in. That team was That team had a minus six run differential on the season. They were not good. We had to lose on Sunday. And then, of course, when Jose Deleon starts for us, I'm like, Who's Jose Deleon? And I go to the baseball stats, and he He's 0 and 9 with a 6. 93 ERA in Triple A, and I'm like, Okay, Cora is doing everything he can. You can't get a call from the commissioner. You have to put players on the field. So it's like, you start Jose Deleon, you start David Hamilton, you're doing everything you can. Jose Deleon has the start of his life, and David Hamilton hits a home run, and we win, and we have to play the Yankees instead of the backfield.

00:12:25

The funny thing was, you were actually focused on this. I was just like, whoever We play whatever the roster we have. It's not like we're winning four rounds. Ryder Cup was on, NFL was on. But in retrospect, I wish I had been more focused on Jose Deleon.

00:12:42

The guardians, They're number five hitters hitting 195. Their lineup reminds me of our lineup. They are terrible. And I know you, me, and O'Malley ensure the thread all recognizes how flawed this Yankees team is, but they also almost always have a terrifying guy at the plate. You say what you want about what a weird team they are, but a lot of time you're like, Oh, Ben Rice could go deep here.

00:13:12

Well, especially if you have a righty going against them, it feels like six, seven guys could just go deep on any of that, which we used to have back when the owner spent more money and they actually cared about the roster. Now we have Nate Lo. Is there a more obvious guy in the history franchise to make the last out of the season than Nate Lo?

00:13:32

I mean, it was such a bummer. I mean, because, of course, we had no first baseman for most of the year. We were trying to do it with Abraham Toro.

00:13:41

We did have a first baseman. We just never asked them to play first base in February and March. Raphael Demers.

00:13:47

That's right. I forgot about the guy who- We just told him he was going to DH only.

00:13:51

And then when our first baseman got hurt, all of a sudden, he was mad at everybody and didn't want to play first base.

00:13:57

That guy's dead to me forever. So So Abraham Touro, bless his heart, because he really battled, but he was like my height, and I am not. As someone who's played a lot of shortstop, you don't like throwing the midgets at first base? Every throw has to be right on the money. There's no stretch.

00:14:18

What's funny is you bringing him up that he was like 12 terrible Red Sox hitters ago. He's not even in the team anymore. He badded cleanup for us after the trade-in.

00:14:27

He wanted to hit fifth tonight. I really Anyway, so when we got Nathaniel Lo, the first thing I do is I'm like, Oh, he's 6'4. Okay, well, that's right off the bat where he's 6'4.

00:14:39

He looks the part.

00:14:40

And then I look and I'm like, Oh, he want to go a glove. Okay, that's good. And then I looked at his ranger numbers and I'm like, This guy's not very good. He strikes out all the time. And he obviously just finally fizzled out with the national. So there's a reason he was on the flag heep and then hit the big home run against the Orioles. And we're like, Oh, he's going to have that death rattle two months where he's awesome. And then it's like, No, he's just a not very good hitter.

00:15:08

And it really- Well, he had the death rattle on the ground ball to first base where we needed him to make a really good play. And of course, he did not.

00:15:15

I mean, it's funny about the four runs tonight because not only last night, our bodybuilder in left field couldn't squeeze the ball, but Romy Gonzales is also built like a bodybuilder. And then when he was trying to get to Volpe's dribler, he's fast in a straight line like Dike, but you have to move laterally. And then he also could have been standing under Bellinger's pop-up that started the whole problem. Somebody should have been camped under that, Paul, because it was up there for a week and a half.

00:15:48

It was ridiculous. I can't believe that started everything because early was dealing.

00:15:55

But as depressing as those four runs were, I texted I texted you early on. I was like, How are we going to score a run?

00:16:02

You could tell with Schlittler right away.

00:16:05

It was just like, Oh, my God. He could just announced, Hey, it's going to be one on one right down the middle. We were overmatched from jump street.

00:16:14

He must have loved playing our lineup, too. Oh, I know.

00:16:17

You get excited, right?

00:16:17

Well, the thing with these guys, these big strapping right handers who can throw one on one, and you also give them an awesome crowd and play off adrenaline. We were arguing on our thread about whether he should have even come back in for the seventh. I liked it because he was only at 90 pitches, but it's like, We haven't touched this guy. But when they brought him back for the eighth, I thought that was pushing it. And then, of course, we swung at everything, and it was a seven-pitch inning.

00:16:43

I mean, game one, Luke Weaver scarred Booney for life. So he just was like, Please get me to Bednar. Lo's body would look out of shape on a men's league softball team. He would be the fat, out of shape guy on a team of 50-year-olds.

00:17:04

They had a slowmo of him swinging and missing, and his belly was juggling in the slowmo. I was like, I haven't seen that in a while.

00:17:11

He hits a comebacker, and It's the most slow motion double play. I think it was Devon Williams last night airmails Volpe. So it's like he almost throws it into center field, and you're like, Oh, are they going to get no outs? It's like, Oh, no, no. Volpe saved it from going to center field. He came down on the bag. Well, it's obviously not going to get a double play. It's like, Oh, no. Lo still running. He's two-thirds of the way to first base. Wow.

00:17:40

He's like running like he's in a horror movie being chased by a serial killer villain. So I got to be honest, especially after yesterday, wasn't feeling great about today because it was October second, which is our Michael Myers day for Red Sox fans. You just go back to 1978, Which I think was the first real... Maybe the Ben Dreith game. I was pretty young when that happened, but I knew something bad had happened in Raiders Pats. Definitely watched it, the rough in the past, they're going to Sugar Bear Hamilton. But that Bucky Den game was the first actually crying from a loss game for me. Just seeing that this game was on October second, I can't say I felt great. You must have felt the same way, right?

00:18:26

Yeah. I mean, obviously, all the success has ameliorated the pain of that day quite a bit.

00:18:34

Yeah, but there's still just the day itself. It's hard not to just think of Yas popping out to the nettle.

00:18:41

It's funny because your doc was on a couple of nights ago, and I was watching the comeback from 3 Zip, and it never gets old. It's so amazing. All those characters, all those moments, all those plays. You talk about Duran not squeezing Judges' Ball last night and missing the bunt. It's like the 2004 Red Sox, it made every play. There was no Curtis Laskana. There's nobody. Once we had no margin for error, nobody did anything wrong. It was insane.

00:19:15

Well, and then we got every break, too. I'll never forget that Tony Clark double going into the stands and just saving our asses.

00:19:24

So whenever you're establishing what the mood was in 2004, you have to show 2003. Sometimes I see these things and I'm like, How did I survive? How did we survive?

00:19:38

We didn't. We were working together at Jimmy's show. I left the next day. I left early. I asked if I could leave. I couldn't function.

00:19:47

Then when Tito brings Pedro in in game seven- Why are you doing this? 2004, there's no explanation for it. Then I know Tito is already doing sound bite, so I know he's going to be asked this question. Then Pedro has already said, I didn't have my cleats on. There's no circumstances did I think I was pitching in this game. And then Tito goes, It was really important to Pedro. I love those moments where someone's lying. Someone is definitely lying. It's like, well, if it was so important to him, he should have known where his cleats were because he didn't think he was pitching. But it took me back to even when you're up 8-1, you can get nervous because you're a Red Sox fan.

00:20:37

Yeah, but we flipped this, though, in them. By the time we got to this decade, I felt like we had flipped the Juju, and now it took 2025, where they just have a way more expensive, better lineup, and better pitchers, and better everything. And we had basically this. We had a five-band team.

00:20:55

You don't think Nathaniel Lo could start for the Yankees?

00:20:58

I don't. I was thinking about, some people don't really watch other teams until we get to... If you're a National League fan, you've probably haven't watched the Red Sox this year. I was thinking about people just watching our lineup going, Wait, this guy's batting fifth?

00:21:18

Or just first pitch, Rob Refschneider is your lead off hitter? That guy has been a utility player for 10 years. And we did have this crazy smoking mirrors thing where Romy and Ref were our lefty killers.

00:21:33

I actually thought they were going to do well in game one.

00:21:35

They are utility players. They're not everyday players. And so when they started the series 0 for 13, I was like, Yeah, America is being introduced to our lineup.

00:21:48

Well, and then those guys, and then the other one was Rafaela, who really came on the last couple of weeks of the season and seemed like he was back to where he was in June. And then he stuck in this series.

00:22:00

He had the 11 pitch walk, and I was like, The 11 pitch walk against Weaver that really won game one was like a poker player setting a guy up for the big win at the end. Rafael spent 600 plate appearances going, You're not going to believe what's going to happen. I'm going to take that pitch out of the strike zone. I'm going to walk.

00:22:27

He was like this thing.

00:22:30

He went back to his normal self tonight, striking out on ball four in the second.

00:22:35

Let's take a quick break, and then I want to do Silver Linings. All right, Hinch, Silver Linings. The Yankees have to bring back Aaron Boon now. I think that's a win for us, right? You can't fire him now. He won a playoff series. They might have to extend him.

00:22:51

And by the way, I don't... I mean, I've said this a lot, but I miss George Steinbrenner. We grew up with the Billy Martin, Bob Lemon, Billy Martin, Dick Houser, Billy Martin. That was fun. This thing of Cashman and Boon have lifetime appointments, like Supreme Court justices. Where's the fun of New York? And I feel the same way about the Cowboys Guys. Jerry Jones is the nicest guy in the world. They lose a game and he's like, I'm sick to death for the kids. I love those guys. Are you pissed off? Nobody's angry anymore. Billionaires aren't angry. Yeah, Boon should have been fired 10 times over. And Cashman, I can't believe how many lives Cashman has lived through this drought. 2009, you're the Yankees. Why is this guy still making personnel decisions?

00:23:45

Silver Lining number two. Judge didn't really do anything. Playoff judge is still a factor. It's still a fun thing because all we have now once the Red Sox get eliminated is now rooting against the Yankees, which brings me 97% of the satisfaction of the Red Sox winning. So Judge not being able to get over the hump as this awesome playoff hitter, we still have that holding on to it.

00:24:07

Well, and sure made the great point that like, judge hitting a flare to left that Duran drops and then going, this is our house at first. You just hit a weak fly ball to left that Randy Macho Man Savage couldn't haul in. Why are you You're proud of yourself?

00:24:30

Here's my third Silver Lining. Mcmahon made that great careening into the dugout catch in the... What was it? The eighth any? Yeah. Nobody helped him. I like that the Red Sox-Yankees animosity is still there. That guy was just going to careen to his death, and people were like, No.

00:24:50

Obviously, the lesser angels of our nature immediately when Slate and hit Judge were like, Oh, is that a hammockbone fracture?

00:25:01

I was like, Oh, maybe that'll sting them for the rest of the game. The Four Silver Lining, and this is a bigger conversation, are the Red Sox owners going to care that they lost the series to the Yankees, the team that we have tilted the upper hand on over the last 20 plus years. And now when you watch the Yankees roster versus the Red Sox roster, and they allegedly traded Dever so that they would have more money to spend this winter. And you have Roman Anthony, who's this generational talent, as you said, who I do think if he's in this series, I think he maybe swings game two. But I just want people to understand how good that guy is. Are they going to actually give a shit about next season in a real way? Because I have no idea.

00:25:46

Well, I mean, obviously the nucleus is already there. So the question becomes, what do they add?

00:25:52

How about some starters? That would be fun. How about not doing the roll the dice with the $19 million guy coming off some injury keeping your fingers crossed? Can we stop that?

00:26:02

The Walker Buhler formula has failed. It's repeatedly failed. Maybe we get a guy like nick Pavetta. Hey, that's an interesting thing. Four years, 55 million for a guy who makes every start. I And then Quinn Priester going 19 starts for the brewers without losing. When we are going into, literally, into double A to get to the finish line because we have no starters, and Pavetta and Priester are making every start for- We're in an AL keeper league, and we also follow all the baseball America prospects.

00:26:37

At no point in the first four months of this season was I like, I wonder if early can start a playoff game for us. That was not a conversation we had.

00:26:45

We all had our eyes on Toli because he was ripping through the system so fast and he threw so hard. And then you're like, oh, he's not your best rookie lefty. I mean, Conley early knows what he's doing out there.

00:26:59

He And it was so unfair that I was annoyed by the announcers. I thought they did a terrible job in the fourth any. I thought they were pretty good for the game, but being like, oh, and they finally figured them out second time in the order. They're finally late. And I was like, are you watching this? We should have caught the popfly. The grounder is like, Volpey would have had to stop one of those.

00:27:23

And then Nate Lowe. The goal of the answer is like, a guy gets completely beaten by a pitch and it jams and he hits a flare over the first baseman's header. Great piece of hitting.

00:27:33

Yeah, gutsy.

00:27:35

It's like, oh, what a save. That thing that hit him in the throat that he didn't know anything about. What a save. Yeah, that they had figured something out the second time through the order so that they could hit all those weak pop flies.

00:27:49

Meanwhile, as we recorded this, the Ram's driving for a possible game-winning countdown. This could be yet another Kyle Shanaher has the lead and then collapses late game.

00:28:00

I don't know how he does it. If you win three games with Mac Jones, you should go right to the Hall of Fame. I'm sorry.

00:28:08

I don't know how- You should get the Aaron Boon extension.

00:28:11

Obviously, I've been watching baseball, so I don't know how Mac Jones is done tonight, but it's pretty crazy.

00:28:17

Well, big picture thoughts. Mike Schur, our friend, texted that it's the least talented Red Sox playoff team since the Jose Offerman years. And that's when it chilled down my spine because Because I remember those '90s teams talking yourself into the chance while deep down knowing this was a freaking mismatch and that these Yankees teams were juggernots and we weren't going to be there. Now, the reasons for that, there were a lot of injuries, a comic amount of injuries this year combined with some bad frage moves. But I also feel like the nucleus isn't that far away with the young guys.

00:28:54

I think my guy, Kyman Williams, just fumbled at the one-yard line.

00:28:57

Come on.

00:28:58

He remondrace Stevenson did.

00:29:02

No.

00:29:03

I think so. I'm sorry.

00:29:05

He just remondred it?

00:29:06

He remondred it at the six-inch line. I just looked up because I thought I was getting my third Kyron Williams' shutdown. The Niners are celebrating. Sorry, sorry.

00:29:18

Nucleus. 2026 Nucleus.

00:29:20

But what I'd say, okay, so I don't know if Tristan Kossas is a 3. 2 war or a 2. 5 war, but we've never really been given an opportunity to see his ceiling. Like, does he hit 27 home runs and walk 90 times? Tristan Kossas, I'd like to see him play a season at first base if it's physically possible for him.

00:29:46

I would have traded him last February, as we argued about many times, for one of those Seattle guys.

00:29:51

That would have been the correct move. Another guy who can't stay on the field, but if he could, Marcelomere Meyers showed us a lot defensively, and he's got a great swing. You and I have been with him for years in rotisserie, and we know he has trouble staying on the field. But if he could play second base-Trouble. Every day. That would be a huge upgrade.

00:30:18

We drafted him. We had the first pick in the AL keeper thing in the minors. We drafted him over Volpe. And I think every single year, he's had the red flag next to his name on our team roster thing for at least two months.

00:30:34

It happened again. He never makes it to the finish line.

00:30:37

I told you, my dad has given up on him. He's like, I just don't think he's ever going to be healthy. He's not showing us that he can be a durable baseball player. I have not given up on him.

00:30:45

Hopefully, that's not the case. Obviously, the outfield of Roman, Seydan, Willier, and Durán in some combination and rotation is pretty good.

00:30:59

What You know what? Yoshida, who was the best hitter we had for the last five weeks of the season that we made fun of all through July.

00:31:06

Then if you... Story seems to have... He was great. He had an incredible season. He was healthy. And you and I were just talking earlier about the Bregman thing, which is suddenly confusing and terrifying because- Well, explain that for the audience, because this seemed like he was going to opt out at the end of the year after he had this awesome season and then sign a bigger deal.

00:31:29

But then he got hurt, comes back, and I'm not sure I want to send him a bigger deal.

00:31:35

So the tigers thought they were getting Bregman because they offered him a six-year deal and had crazy money. And then the Red Sox offered him a three-year deal for 120 million with the option to opt out, which is like, you're going to make it 120 million, but you're also betting on yourself. It's a double whammy. You get 120 million, but... So he was so good right away that I was like, Oh, we should give him the Tiger's deal. Then he got hurt. Then he came back and he was excellent. Then he vanished. From August 22nd on, he was the second worst player in baseball. He could not drive the ball. And then Brian Barrett was saying, If Meyer had been healthy, he could have played two days a week at third base, and Bregman might have made it to the finish line. But it's like, well, you can't sign a guy to a six-year extension if you're already thinking about how to play him five days a week.

00:32:39

Well, you forgot the irony of this whole thing is that part of the reason that they traded Muki Betts, which they were dumb enough to tell us when John Henry did the whole thing about these big free agent contracts, when these guys hit their 30s, they transform into a different level of player. So it's like, now you're just going to overpay Bregman. So it'll be interesting if they just completely do the opposite of why they traded Muckie Bets, which is still one of the worst trades in the history of Boston.

00:33:06

I was against Bregman across the board when it was rumored because It felt desperate.

00:33:16

It just felt like they had struck out. They needed to do something so we wouldn't be mad at them.

00:33:20

I was looking at that baseball card, and I was looking at the year he knew what was coming versus all the other years. I was like, this is a decline phase in the making. We could get overtime in this game.

00:33:33

Ram's kick off back to 30. Wow, this is some exciting podcast. Of course, there's a flag.

00:33:40

I was like, I don't love this Bregman signing. And then I just had to shut up because he was incredible offensively.

00:33:48

We were in awe of how good he was that first five weeks.

00:33:52

And an incredible leader.

00:33:54

He was great defensively, great base runner, everything.

00:33:58

He was explaining the game to guy And so it's just such a great presence. But then watching him hit shallow fly balls for six weeks down the stretch was rough and not a great salary drive. It was So he obviously had a huge hit in game one. But you didn't feel the confidence.

00:34:26

No, he didn't feel like the same guy.

00:34:28

Ironically, you had a a lot more confidence in Story. I mean, I always thought Story was going to hit the ball hard by the end of the season.

00:34:35

And Yoshida. I think Durán is probably the trade piece because he's on a reasonably good deal. I think they get a pitcher for him, and they have other outfielders to play his position, right?

00:34:52

Yeah. I mean, we have four outfielders for three spots. And the thing about Durán, he's so terrible against lefties. And if you're in a division and in a league where you're going to have to deal with Max Fried and Carlos Ordon every year, what is the point of having this guy that you have to either not play at all or drop him way down in the order because he can't hit the two best pitchers on your rival? His value shrinks. So you got to go get somebody who can hit those two guys.

00:35:26

He could play center for a bunch of teams. It's not like It's not like he couldn't help. So the Rams third and 10 now, 32nd side.

00:35:33

It's so weird because I watched him play center field, and he graded out very well, and he didn't regularly drop balls in center field.

00:35:44

No, let's say.

00:35:45

That drop against the Yankees was... He had a bunch of those this year where he just gets disoriented on his route to the ball and then gets there and doesn't finish the easiest part, catching a baseball with a baseball goal.

00:36:02

We had eight eight-figure guys this year for Moneywise. Yoshida, 18, Bregman, 25, Story, 22. 5, Chapman, 10. 8. They're bringing him back. G Tolito, 19, which I think triggered an option that he's in control of for next year, so he might be come back. Matt's at 12. 5. Jordan Hicks, 12. 5. Couldn't make the playoff roster. The third in the punch bowl, the Rafael Dever's trade, we knew with him immediately. It was just 99 right down the middle and guys teeing off. And then Buhler at 21 million who got waived.

00:36:43

Wow, there's a lot of pooh-pooh platter in there.

00:36:46

So here are the Yankees. Cole, 36, Radon, 28, Fried, 14. 5, Goldie, 12. 5, McMahon, 12. 5, Judge, 40, Bellinger, 27, and Stanton, 32. The contract that everybody He said he was too expensive. And meanwhile, he's fucking terrifying when you're going in a play upstairs. It's a miracle when you get him out. You can't believe you escaped him.

00:37:08

He hit 300 miles per hour worth of balls on consecutive swings. The one that was foul was 200 miles an hour. And then he hits one that he thinks is gone. I just don't know how a guy who can look that bad. It just feels like you can bounce the ball up to him sometimes and he'll swing it at anything. And then the play the playoffs come around and it's like, No, I'm only going to hit lasers.

00:37:35

Well, so big picture with this Red Sox. Roman is the only thing that matters. Ultimately, we could talk about all this other stuff, but I We didn't talk about him a lot on this podcast because I didn't want people to think I was a maniac, but we just were in awe of how incredible. That was the best rookie season for the part that he played that I can remember since Nomar in '97, when Nomar would just come up and just hit these rockets time and time again. You're like, This guy's a rookie? And Anthony, I think, was better than him.

00:38:06

Because obviously, he hit the 497-foot home run in Worcester, and it was like, Oh, my God. Get him up. Roy Hobbs is coming. This is mythical. This guy's coming. And then struggled out of the gate and was like, All right, that's what rookies usually do. And clearly, he figured it out. And then the three at-bats that come to mind, which make it so depressing about how our season ended and how his season ended. So we're in Minnesota after the turbulent flight, and they bring in Yohann Duran, who's definitely going to get moved, but he throws 100 miles an hour with movement. And Roman's unfazed. There's no pitcher he's faced by. He gets the game-winning base hit off to ran. Then against the Astros, they bring in a lefty specialist who hasn't given up a hit on his slider to a left-handed batter all year. Roman goes off the base of the wall for the winning hit immediately on the pitch, no left feet.

00:39:10

We're texting when he's coming up like, Roman's going to hit this guy. Roman's going to hit this guy.

00:39:14

We're like, We don't care what the numbers are. We're so confident in him. Then, of course, the greatest moment of our season, he takes Paul Skine's deep while Payton Toley's dad is being interviewed live. Payton Toley is pitching a shutout, and he hits one-off Skine's like, Who the fuck is Paul Skine? I don't give a shit. Then Payton Toley's dad is like, That ball's gone. And we're like, That moment, that was obviously the peak of our season because then Cora likes to totally come out for the sixth, then it all falls apart. Then Roman tears us a muscle that didn't exist when Hank Aaron and Willie Mays were playing, but I don't get that part either. But anyway, so we've already seen that nobody dominates Roman Anthony. Once you're launching off Paul Skine's, there's nobody better than that. So he is the reason we're going to be so excited in March. Crochet is the guy. I mean, that performance where he gives up the home run to Volpe, and then he just said, Well, that's it for you guys. That is it for you guys. 17 in a row are going down. And then Bayo made a big leap until he didn't.

00:40:24

So he's probably a three or four guy.

00:40:26

Kind of ran out of gas the last six weeks.

00:40:28

I think early is going to be a three or four guy. Can Hauke come back and be a three or four guy?

00:40:36

Can Crawford come back?

00:40:37

Those guys. But to your point, what we need- Will they spend money on a starter?

00:40:42

Who's Max Fried this year? Can we get that guy?

00:40:44

We need the second. We need the number two starter. And it's like, when you look at the bubble gum and match sticks that we tried to put this roster together within the series against the Yankees, and then look at the Dodgers who are like, okay, Okay, well, obviously, Snell, Yamamoto, Glaznau, and Ohtani are never going to give up a run. But what do we do about the bullpen? And they go, oh, look in our garage, we have this 100-mile-an-hour Sezai just laying around. Everyone forgot about him. It's like, Oh, he throws 100. Let's have him go close out the series. The Dodgers roster is so comically deep. Pahes would be our best hitter. He would have hit third in our lineup in this series.

00:41:30

We used to spend money like that, though.

00:41:33

Nobody spent money like that.

00:41:36

No, not money like the Dodgers, but we used to be in the stratosphere where we would have an embarrassment of riches with expensive guys.

00:41:43

We were so torn because we love Muki eternally because he's just the fucking greatest human being to ever play professional sports. And so we don't like it when he's got a 690 OPS and playing shortstop seems to be ruining his career. And then the playoff's come and he's just hitting lasers all over the place. They're like, okay.

00:42:04

Well, big picture, we need the Yankees to lose just because that's what we need to begin with. That's what the world needs. But also, I'm a little worried about them next year because This Schlittner, I don't know, that was a pretty... I know it was against our crappy lineup, but we were watching him the last two and a half months. He was throwing 100 every time he pitched. And he just looked like, Oh, this guy, they have something. And he's going to be their number four starter next year because Cole will be back at some point. Rodan, they still have.

00:42:36

Fried Cole, Rodan, Schlittler.

00:42:38

Schlittler is your number 4?

00:42:40

Is terrifying.

00:42:41

And are they keeping Bednar? They are, right?

00:42:44

Because I think You're right to be terrified. That is a terrifying rotation.

00:42:49

Not to mention they still have... Stanton and Judge are going to be back. They're going to have jazz. By the way, that was another great thing about this series. Boon not playing jazz Jazz in game one was like a gift. That guy's... I don't care if he's lefty or righty. I don't want him in the game. He does too many good things, even if he's not going to get a hit.

00:43:09

And I mean, all the things it took for us to lose a one-run game last night Whitlock threw Jazz change-ups that everybody swings at. He threw him these change-ups. They were like, That looks like a strike for 59 feet.

00:43:28

And he just put on them.

00:43:29

You're You can't throw a better pitch. You can't throw a change up that's a strike that he'll hit it. So he lays off it, he walks, but we're still okay unless the count goes to three, two and Wells hits the fucking chalk Then he scores by six inches. It was the nightmare of all the things that had to go down for us to lose by one run, and it all happened.

00:43:55

Who do you think is the best baseball team? You watch more of the other teams than I do.

00:44:00

Well, I've been very high on the Mariners since they got all those guys. Me, too. Because we got them in Roto, you've been- Oh, Naylor.

00:44:11

We're keeping him next year. Yeah, Naylor for 24 is happening. Our Roto season came down to not going an extra dollar for Cal Raleigh and letting him go. And then spending the money we would have spent on Cal Raleigh on Christian Campbell, thinking he was going to be the next guy. And he had a month and a half and was never seen again.

00:44:30

That April may be unprecedented in baseball history. I mean, I'll let the Tim Kurchin dig into it, but he just hit nothing but line drives for a month against Major League pitching.

00:44:43

And then- We were comparing him to Moukhe bets. We were like, this is what Moukhe was like when he was young, just line drives.

00:44:49

And then starting on May first, he did not hit a ball over 70 miles an hour.

00:44:53

Yeah. The league figured out something with him, and that was that. All right, give us your 32nd, the Patriots might win in Buffalo on Sunday Night case?

00:45:03

I think that Bill's defense stinks. Me too. I think Drake May is good. Our defense is not as good as I thought it would be. Obviously, looked a lot better with our full complement of players, including Gonzo. But I think if the Bills, if we're within a score late, I think we could drive on that defense. And if it's 31-30, I hope Vrabel goes for two.

00:45:32

Well, we'll be talking about that on Ringer 107. My last question. The good son at the end when she's holding Macaulay Culkin and Elijah Wood, and she doesn't have the strength to keep both and has to drop one of them.

00:45:44

Oh, no.

00:45:45

You're holding Drake May, and Roman Anthony, and you only have this strength to keep one. Who do you keep?

00:45:52

Goodbye, Drake. Goodbye, Drake.

00:45:55

I love you. Yeah, you love Roman Anthony. I love Roman. Since we've known each other, I don't think Not even Tatum. I think Roman Anthony is number one for you.

00:46:05

He's one of one.

00:46:06

He really is. I mean, he was like, must watch. It was the first time in a couple of years where I was going out of my way to watch at Bats from a Red Sox hitter. I think Manny was probably the Ortiz, I guess like 2013 range Ortiz. But Manny was the last one where I was like, I just don't want to miss a single pitch with this dude.

00:46:31

The way he carries himself, like his interviews, he seems like he's from another time. He's just so great.

00:46:37

We like his family.

00:46:39

His parents are going to every game.

00:46:41

They just seem like good hanks.

00:46:42

Meanwhile, I'm like, So do I have to hold my breath every time he swings as hard as he can? Is this oblique something that's going to...

00:46:50

We didn't have these obliques and Achilles when we were growing up with sports. In my day. It was... People just blow out their knee every once in a while. All right, Kevin Hinch. Great to see as always. Can't wait to figure out our alekeeper team with you over the course of the winter as we debate on Schlittner for $19. He roped us in. We're going to keep him, and it'll probably put some curse on him.

00:47:12

Would you go back in time and kill Baby Will it learn?

00:47:19

See you, Edge. All right, brother. All right, we're recording this before Ram's Niners. So whatever happens in that game, we don't know. It happening in the future. Ringer 107 also happening in the future. We're going to come up with some pics. We did okay last week. I felt like it could have been better. I wanted to throw some October odd stuff at you. Just that stuff I noticed on FanDuel, like Josh Allen now being a minus odds for MVP. He's minus 105. Feels early for that, and yet I couldn't come up with somebody I like more Herbert, 6 to 1. Mahomes is plus 6: 50. Nobody else has really emerged. But do you agree with Allen having minus MVP odds?

00:47:59

No. But they have this incredible schedule in front of them. It's really hard to go through the Buffalo schedule and find losses. And if they end up 14 and 3, it seems like everybody else, the Chiefs look like they're fine, but they're like a 12 and 5 team. The Rams, the one that does intrigue me is Matthew Stafford. Now, I'll knock on wood right now. He will have played. It will have results in that game when people are hearing this.

00:48:31

How about Jake May at 70 to 1? Nothing?

00:48:34

Come on, man. Drake, maybe. Nothing at all? No, thank you.

00:48:38

No, thank you. Are you in the Drake, maybe camp?

00:48:40

No. I do expect a really good game from him out of this Buffalo. This is a Great referendum on Drake, maybe. Let's see. Let's see it.

00:48:48

He's Drake, definitely for me. Some division odds that jumped out to me. Afc North, Pittsburgh still plus 185. And taping this on a Thursday afternoon, who knows if Lamar is playing or not? They're claiming he might try to play against Houston this week. But Pittsburgh plus 185 still feels mildly enticing. It feels like they can get to nine and eight. I'm not betting it, but I just thought the odds would be lower. Do you notice that one?

00:49:13

Yeah, I'm looking at it. I don't know what to do. It's a stay away to me because- Because Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback? And they could be one and three? It's still Baltimore can rip off 10 wins in a row.

00:49:28

They're decimated, though. They are. There's this imaginary point that you can pass during the NFL season with injuries, and it feels like they've either passed it or they're really close. But on the other hand, Lamar and Josh are the two guys that you feel like they can win 9 to 10 in any situation. I guess we'll find out. Plus 185 seemed a little high, considering the Baltimore injury stuff. Houston, AFC South, plus 650. They were minus 110 before the season. If they beat Baltimore this week, they'd be two and three. And if you're playing it out like Jacksonville loses to KC on Monday night. Houston beats Baltimore. Indy, they're probably winning this week against the Raiders, but they'd be four and one, but at least the Texans would get to play them again. Plus 650 seemed high. You're surprised by that?

00:50:16

It's worth a little taste just because of that defense. But honest to God, I like getting the Colts even money. I think the Colts are legit.

00:50:27

I think you're right because they should have won last week. They had two touch downs that got called back. This is my favorite. And sadly, I can't do it because I have so much money in them already from June, July, August. But Denver plus 460 to win the AFC West. And the case would be you also have to expect them to beat Philadelphia this week. That would be the upset for week five to move to three and two. But there's some really good advanced metrics with them. They lost two games. They easily could have won. And you could argue that they Blue, and their defense is good. I think they have a top five running game right now, at least by the stats, and there's the Bo'Nicks issue. But plus 460 seemed high to me, house.

00:51:10

Well, it's basically you're gambling on Bo'Nicks. That feels like the right amount of return on the risk of Bo Nicks. Let's see him go on the road and beat a playoff team just once.

00:51:23

So you're gambling on Bo Nicks, you get to feel like Sean Payton because that's been the last two years of his life. He's like, Oh, I'm Sean Payton right now. The Charger is losing all for definitely this week, maybe next week, and just how much pressure Herbert was under the last couple of weeks, which they've talked about, all the articles were about, That can't happen anymore. We can't have him being hit like that. But look, man, you only have so many hits before something bad happens with one of the hits. Nfc North, Atlanta's plus 290. This would be more of a Tampa Bay losing this week and continuing to just have injuries hedge. I thought that price is pretty good, three to one. They're not playing this week, but more a little hedge against Tampa and some stuff that's happening. I'm not doing it. I'm just flagging it.

00:52:13

Yeah, I already have a preseason on Atlanta, just on the theory that Tampa wouldn't stay healthy the whole season. That was really it. In the preseason, I got it.

00:52:24

You do a flyer on Atlanta, I feel like, every August.

00:52:28

I don't know. You check them out. I mean, 9-8 could win that division yet.

00:52:33

Yeah. Well, here's my favorite, NFC West, Seattle's plus 360 still. The odds and the respect for them has just not been there all year. It wasn't there before the year. It's not there now. They're number one in DVOA house through four weeks.

00:52:49

Yeah. So this game this week, them hosting Tampa, is speaking of referendum games. Let's see it. It's a good team, even though Tampa is beat up. They should hold serve at home. The line is fair. So if we see them handle their business against Tampa, if that defense is what we're- That's going to be too late.

00:53:11

The plus 360, you got to basically gamble on them beating Tampa.

00:53:15

I understand. I'm just saying the gamble is them making a leap over the ramps. Right.

00:53:22

So we got Rams night or somebody's losing that game today. So somebody's gone to three and two. And then the Cardinals, who lost their second string running back and are now down their third string running back and they're 28th passing, I think that feels like a possible creator. I like that plus 360. I think Seattle is good. Some conference odds. Buffalo is still plus 180. Kc is plus 460. Denver would be the long shot, probably at 16 to one. I think that's a pretty fair price of the talent. And then in the NFC, Philly plus 2,90, Detroit plus 4,40, Green Bay plus 4,80, Seattle, 17 to Is there any team you're interested in other than those seven from an odd standpoint?

00:54:04

Kansas City at that price is remarkable to me. It feels like an auto-play, must-play, go-do-it. What's that going to be if and when they take care of business against Jacksonville this weekend?

00:54:16

Right. And they got Rice coming back week seven. And I agree with you. That's an amazing price. The plus 460 jumped out to me. Yeah, that could be plus 220 by Monday morning. Right. And then I still like the Seattle 17 to one. I'm not saying they're going to make the Super Bowl, but I just think those odds are pretty good. The Rams 6 to one. I wanted to see a Rams number that made me go, Oh, and I think the people have already bet it. It's already priced in. And then just from a long shot standpoint, there's really nothing. And I think at this point, I don't think we're going to see anybody over the 17 to one range. Even the Jags, which is how the Jags But she was like, Oh, the Jags, maybe throw. They're only 15 to one in the AFC. There's not even real value in that, and everybody else is too far. Houston, 27 to one. I wish I liked their teamwork. All right, we're going to hit. We're going to do Ringer 107, but as always, we do the stay aways. So last week we went three and two in Ringer 107.

00:55:22

I really feel like we had a good week. And the mistake was just not assuming something stupid was going to happen in the Sunday night game. Green Bay, Dallas. Everyone was on Green Bay. Everybody had them in Teaser Parley. The favorites had been winning nonstop for four weeks. I don't have regrets, but I guess that was the mistake. I still don't know how they give 40 points to Dallas without Cee D. Lamb.

00:55:46

The mistake was us gambling on Carson fucking Wentz. That was the mistake on the Sunday boarding game. That's a mistake. That's what we did. It was a mistake.

00:55:55

You brought it up. You said, This is just for the record, a 9: 30 ET game that we're waging on. We shouldn't do this. And I plowed ahead. So we're staying away this time. It's Browns-Vikings, Browns plus three and a half. Actually, if this was a normal game, I would probably want to bet the Browns because I think their defense could just win this. Minnesota's offense, the 32nd in Sacks, 31st in QB hits that just suck in general. And then the Browns, first and run, fourth and pass, first yards per play. Their second in DVOA. It feels like the defense might win it by himself. I'm excited for Dylan Gabriel. I thought Flacko looked terrible. Here's why you don't bet Cleveland. A rookie QB in his first start in a 9: 30 overseas game. That is what I talked about when Fanduel sends you the automatic alert and you're trying to make the bet. And Fando is just like, Hey, just so you know.

00:56:49

And not only that, it's against a Brian Flores defense. It's also a defense that's going to blitz him half the time.

00:56:56

Yeah. I mean, they are missing a couple of linebackers. You could feel it last week with no Van Ginkle.

00:57:01

I think they're going to run. The Cleveland game plan, it's an under. I think it's the lowest total on the board. It's like in the 34 and a half range or something. And this has all the makings of a 14 to seven game or a 10 to seven game.

00:57:15

The under almost seems too easy.

00:57:17

I don't think it feels too easy. Who's going to score? I don't know. And what are the circumstances?

00:57:23

Well, for Minnesota, Carson went overseas with a banged up offensive line in a depleted Minnesota front seven in a 9: 30 overseas game. That's also a fando alert. Stay away. So we're staying away. Chargers, Washington. Chargers minus two and a half at home. I wrote rat line in all caps.

00:57:40

Oh, wow. Okay.

00:57:42

The Chargers, we were talking about as a Super Bowl contender a week ago. Your team doesn't have McLaren. It's got Daniels in a playing with a knee brace. To me, just to stay away. I don't know how long Herb can stay healthy, but interestingly, Washington is fifth in and the chargers are 10th. But what do you expect Washington fan?

00:58:05

I do think that Washington's defense is going to play better than they played against Atlanta on the road last week. But the problem is it's too much uncertainty to try and make a wager on what the hell is going to happen here because Jaden Daniels in a knee brace. The receiver room continues to be a mess, and the defense Defense has to come up with an identity. They have to be able to stop the run because that's how the chargers are going to try and establish themselves. So it's a stay away. I'm rooting very hard. It's a good opportunity for Washington to go beat a good team on the road. So I do think the odds are decent.

00:58:48

What do you think the Washington fan base in LA on Sunday?

00:58:52

Oh, I think there's a big contingent. We know a bunch of them. Yeah, I think that's another case. I think it'll be vocal. Yeah, for sure.

00:58:58

Yeah, that might be where the half point All right, we're staying away regardless. I don't know what to make of the chargers with both of these tackles out. I just don't want to bet on their offense. Cowboys, Jets. Cowboys minus two and a half at the Jets. This is the sell high, buy low game of the week.

00:59:14

Yes.

00:59:14

Where Cowboys looking great. Oh, yeah, they can put the ball on anyone. And then the Jets just couldn't have looked worse. And I will stay away. I was leaning Jets for a second. And then that stat that keeps popping up about how fields is 0-25 when the other team scores 21 plus points. Dallas can score 21 plus points.

00:59:35

If this was three, if Dallas was favored by three, I'd be making a really passionate argument on the Jets.

00:59:42

Three and a half would be a real conversation. Right.

00:59:45

Yes, for sure. The two and a half is not enough. Dallas coming off of a Sunday night game where they played 70 minutes, the 60, and then every last second of the overtime. Yeah. And and the splits for Dak, outdoors versus indoors and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

01:00:04

Did you see that stat when that happens? The underdog in the game is like 0 and 4 in the next week. Fields had a classic Monday Night game where you're just completely out. You're like, this guy has no chance. This guy just cannot complete passes. And then he has the 45-yard, fourth and one awesome run. You're like, Fields? Oh, maybe there's something here. I think that's just going to be his whole career. Then the other stay away is cards minus eight and a half at home against the Titans. I would make the case Arizona should not be favored by eight and a half over anyone in the league. Even their schedule, which was easy so far, Saints, one by seven, Panthers, one by five, lost to the Niners by one when the Niners were missing a bunch of guys, then lost to Seahawks by three last week. And now they're on their third string running back, so I don't think they can protect leads. And yet I'm never taking the Titans. That Titans, their streak against spread. What is it? Three and 18?

01:01:02

They're three and 18 since Tommy boy Callahan has taken the helm there. So the only thing to do ever is to bet against the Titans on the line. But we can't count on this. The Cardinal's buy it.

01:01:19

Can we pay some respect to the three and 18, though? What an incredible record.

01:01:26

Where have we been? That's my question. Where the hell have we been?

01:01:29

They're setting these odds so that they're conceivably will have action both ways, and they're three and 18.

01:01:35

Here's the thing. They're really two and 19 because they get credit for the fact that the line moved a full point from the summer into the actual beginning of the game in that first game of the season against Denver. So they're getting credit for covering a spread because Denver won by eight or whatever it was rather than eight and a half. But that line was seven and seven and a half all summer long. That's how- What just happened?

01:01:59

She swiped your I did.

01:02:01

Are you sick? I need a little hot water worth of lemon.

01:02:06

Listen, don't knock until you tried it.

01:02:09

I could have used some. Yeah.

01:02:11

Maybe you're having some right now.

01:02:12

I was at Beth Page Black this weekend, and I'm a little horse from yelling all my FUs at Rory. It didn't work. But here I am.

01:02:23

You should be cheering for Rory. They had all of our favorite golfers.

01:02:27

I'm making a joke. I obviously bet heavily on the Euros.

01:02:32

Yeah, you were cheering for Rory and yelling your support to him and telling the fans to leave him alone.

01:02:38

I was saying F you New Yorkers.

01:02:40

My favorite was when you pretended you didn't bet on Europe. You were doing this bit on Ringer podcast. You were like, Look, I wouldn't necessarily bet this because I want us to win. That's not true. I did bet it. You told me how many times you bet this.

01:02:54

I said that I bet it. I just said that that doesn't make me any less of a Patriot.

01:03:00

Here is a new category called Getting Three Free Points, and yet it's still a stay away. These games include the Saints plus one and a half against the Giants. I don't know how they're not favored their home. They actually can move the ball. The Giants don't have neighbors. I don't know what's good about the Giants. Aaron Schatz had a thing. The Giants have the worst run defense by DBOA through four games since 1979. They've allowed 6. 1 yards per carry. And guess what the Saints like to do? Run the ball and get first downs. Tate some Hill, maybe back. And yet I'm not going near the Saints. As you know, I don't like betting a two terrible team's game.

01:03:46

That's what this is. The problem is it keeps bouncing back and forth. The Saints right now are minus one and a half.

01:03:51

Did that move again?

01:03:52

Yes, it just keeps moving. So it's a definite stay away. Anything where those one and a halfs flip. They've been losers so far this season. The Raiders was one, and the Ravens were the other one so far this season, where the ones, the one and a halfs are flipping across the line.

01:04:08

I think there's a scenario where the Saints actually kill the Giants.

01:04:12

I don't disagree one bit. I do not disagree. I don't disagree.

01:04:17

All right, I just out it up house. The Saints to win by 13 and a half is 5 to 1. Saints minus 13, five to 1. Saints minus 19 and a half, 10 to 1.

01:04:29

No.

01:04:30

No, can't do that. They're just blowing out the Giants. It's like a 30 to 6. No. Jackson Dart looks terrible game. I don't know. I won't be putting any money in the normal spread. Colts, Raiders, Colts minus six and a half, Colts, 6. 5. Colts' cornerback situation in Shambles. It's a kitchen sink game for the Raiders, and they're getting three extra points. I don't know. I'm just saying it says season's over if we lose this one game. They're I got all the stops. You don't think the season's over?

01:05:02

Well, I do think the season's over because I think the Raiders suck.

01:05:06

You think it's already over?

01:05:07

It's already over, and I'm not ready to just move past this game in terms of things we might consider for our card.

01:05:14

Yeah, All right. God damn, I'll mark it. I wrote down on my notes, Gino Smith and Pete Carroll, the worst reunion since De Niro and Pacino and Righteous Kill. Do you ever see Righteous Kill? It's really bad.

01:05:27

Not familiar with that one.

01:05:29

It Because we get older, we forget stuff. I think it sucked me in three times on cable over the last 15 years. Like, De Niro and Pacino, I'll give it a chance. And it's just horrible.

01:05:38

I feel like there's some worse reunions than that. We can do better.

01:05:42

How about this? Watch Righteous Kill and then decide whether I'm right. All right, I'll mark that down because apparently you are intrigued from a parlay standpoint, I'm guessing. Panthers Dolphins. Panthers plus one and a half was the move.

01:05:58

No. This is the official No. It's the Pooper Bowl, right? It is the Pooper Bowl.

01:06:02

Yes, sir. Is this the worst game we can have without Tyreek Hill?

01:06:06

Let's think. What is the worst game? Well, Tennessee would have to be involved. Tennessee needs to be involved. The worst game we can have.

01:06:12

But yeah. Yeah, you're right. No No, Tye Rigg. Dolphins played Monday. Panthers coming off a blowout loss. And already the Bryce Young whispers are starting again. Watch out. Andy Dalton, just go Uber for the next few weeks. People are worried. Lying Lyon's Bengals is the other one. Lyon's minus 10 and a half at Cincinnati. This is just way too high. I just automatically, if a home dog is getting more than 10 points in our Picks poll, I'm just taking them. It's at least three free sincey points on paper. They're coming off a horrible loss. And Detroit's having a cornerback crisis. They're just running out of cornerbacks completely. And yet I'm not taking sincey. It's funny. They're two and two. It feels like they're minus one and five. Well, that's- I went...

01:07:02

Go ahead. No, I was just saying that's because we've seen two and a half games with Jake Browning, and it feels like that's days of our lives that we can't get back.

01:07:11

I have all the team Reddit pages bookmarked, and I zoom through there on Thursday mornings as I have my coffee just to see what their fans are saying.

01:07:20

Oh, no.

01:07:22

By far, since he has the funniest Reddit page of all the team Reddit pages.

01:07:27

Oh, congrats to since he. They win something.

01:07:30

They had seven or eight different pictures of that photo of their offensive line blocking a three-man rush where the two guys are going around the tackles and four guys are blocking the guy in the middle. And the two guys are going around the tackles. They're about to sack the quarterback. And it's just all these different jokes about it. They're talking about boycotting the home game, doing chance. They're so fucking pissed that they had this borough Tee Higgins chase thing and then decided not to give them an offensive line, which anybody who is watching from afar is like, What are these guys doing? The Sinsi fans are mad, and they have a cheap owner who doesn't really spend that much money.

01:08:11

That's the thing. That's the thing that they have every right to be mad about. And the constant mismanagement, the institutional mismanagement of the franchise is appalling. It reminds me of what happened here in Washington, although we never had anybody as good as Joe Burrow for the 20 plus years that the devil was the owner.

01:08:33

The devil? Wow. Strong takes from Joe House. All right, we're going to take a break, and then we're going to do Ringer 107 and try to figure out our picks. All right, possibles for Ringer 107. Seahawks Bucks. Mentioned earlier Seahawks first in DBOA. This is a Darnold versus Baker. Nobody can get revenge for the Carolina situation because they were both miserable game. Tampa's D is really banged up. Missing a bunch of D-backs. You look at their injury report, just out, questionable, questionable, didn't practice. This just seems like a bad spot for them. And again, that Seattle defense. Six first to run, second yards per play, fourth in hits in hurries. Tampa had some trouble blocking for Baker. That Philly game was pretty fluky. They were way, way down. In Philly, they had the classic. They're wilting in the Tampa heat. You just knew what was happening as was happening. Philly holds on for the win. I really like the spot. I wish this was two and a half, but Seahawks minus three is one of my favorites.

01:09:36

We have to play it. It's an auto play on Seattle. The crazy thing is, have you ever seen a minus three at minus 124? Do you see how much you have to lay minus 124 on field or right now to get the minus three? But you know what? It's worth it. Bucky Irving, have we heard the MRI results yet? I mean, he's in a walk and food.

01:09:58

He's another question, Bo. And he's been awesome.

01:10:00

He's awesome. If they don't have him, that's the bridge too far.

01:10:04

If they don't have him, this should be minus four and a half.

01:10:07

And maybe it'll move in that direction. So we're very lucky to get the minus three. I don't expect Bucky Irving to play. In fact, I've already benched him in our guillotine league because the deadline to create your roster is Wednesday night. And if you don't set it by Wednesday night, you're fucked until... Anyway. There we go.

01:10:29

Okay. A lot of jokes about our guillotine league app. Monday Narrative Alert. Are the Seahawks genuinely good? Could the Seahawks make the Super Bowl? I feel like this would be the game they're on the radar. No, no, no. I'm talking Monday.

01:10:50

Not, Can they make the Super Bowl, but there will be- That's 11: 10 on Monday on ESPN.

01:10:55

Somebody will say it.

01:10:56

There'll be respect. There'll be heightened respect for Seattle.

01:10:59

All right. We're marking down Seahawks.

01:11:01

That's a lock.

01:11:03

Next one I marked down was Broncos plus four and a half at Philly. This line feels like it should be Philly by three.

01:11:12

That would be fine. I would be totally fine if it was Philly by three. I know that we will continue to confer respect upon the Denver defense, except the Denver defense had a chance to close out the chargers in LA with four minutes left in the game, and they let the chargers drive twice, and the chargers scored a shutdown in a game-winning field goal. And I just cannot, in good conscience, endorse betting on Bo next on the road. Go have a tremendous game and prove it and just jam it in my face. Jam it in my face, Bo Nicks. Just take it, put it right in my face.

01:11:55

Please don't cut this out as a video, Internet. No, please do.

01:11:58

I'm begging you to put him and says, Stick it to me, but I got to see it. I got to see it one time. One time from Bo Nicks. I won't do it. I mean, Jalen Carter's banged up. Philly's out of rhythm. Their offense is a disaster. There's all this stuff that says that's a good number. You should play that number because it should be about a field goal. But fuck that.

01:12:22

Denver's ninth in DBOA, Philly's 12th. Philly's defense, 21st against the run. Denver's D first in sacks and hits, ninth against the pass. If they're for real, it starts this week. I asked Shio Capote, our colleague, host of Philly Special, knows the Eagles inside and out. I was like, Why isn't this line, eagles minus two and a half, eagles minus three? He said, 18 straight wins when Hertz starts and finishes a game. Feels like they can't be less than a 3. 5 favorite at home unless they play the bills. Their defense played awesome last week. Looked like last It could put Nicks in a blender.

01:13:01

Those are all great points.

01:13:03

It's our guy, Sheil.

01:13:04

I have to agree with Sheil Capatea there.

01:13:06

I'm still marking it. I'm not going to put it in bold.

01:13:08

All right.

01:13:10

Texans Ravens in Baltimore. Texans minus one and a half. No Lamar, we're guessing. And if it is a Lamar, it'll be a compromise not moving around that well Lamar, which is not a Lamar I'm excited about. Defense decimated. I mean, it's comical how bad it's been so The year from hell is now lingering. Houston's one and three. I do like their defense. There's a guy in their team that I have on two of my fantasy teams, Woody Marks.

01:13:43

Oh, wow. Congratulations to I do.

01:13:45

Backup, running back. I picked him up. He just played a couple of plays, and it was one of those immediate like, whoa, who's that? They unleashed him a little bit last week, and I think he's a game changer for them. I agree with you. He makes dudes miss, and they went from having a running back situation that I absolutely hated to one that I feel pretty good about. I also think this could be a C. J. Stroud. C. J. Stroud in our guillotine league was on the waiver wire. I was like, I'm just out of principle picking him up. I have Jake Browning on my team. But if he was ever going to have a big week, this is the week, Texans minus one and a half in Baltimore, what do you think?

01:14:26

I really want to play the Texans. If you When you look at the losses, they lost by five to the Rams on the road in their opener. They had a Baker last second pulled out of his butt in week two at home. They had the game one.

01:14:43

Baker had a, what was it, fourth and 10, fourth and 12?

01:14:46

Exactly right. And they were driving to tie the game against the Jaguars on the road at Jacksonville. Cj did throw a bad pick in that game. They clinched it for the Jags. But they aren't far away. They played three teams that I think we'll look back, and I think all three of the teams they lost to are playoff teams this year. And then they went and handled their business against Tennessee. I think you're right. The missing ingredient with that Houston offense has been a running back with any burst. Remember last year when they had Mixin, it was a radically different offense. The splits between that offense with Joe Mixin versus without. So if Woody Marks is 75% of Joe Mixon, but really what we're betting on here is Cooper Rush and that Houston defense against Cooper Rush. And they basically just had a week off.

01:15:44

That's one thing. And They know how bad the Baltimore defense is. I don't understand why this line isn't Houston by three. This is like a name only spread at this point. They're missing as many guys as they are.

01:15:57

It might get there.

01:15:58

It's really crazy. Sports Illustrated five hours ago. Woody Marks is quietly becoming NFL star, thanks to Touchdown Search. Here we go. All right. Starting to get some press. Here we go. We're right down to Texans. Patriots bills. Patriots plus eight and a half. That was the line that we have to work with for Ringer 107. I'm just telling you, I think they can hang in this game. I've obviously watched every play of the Patriots. I think they're going to be able to move the ball on that Buffalo defense. And the backdoor cover is in play even if the Buffalo is up by 14. But I think the Pats, I think they're pretty good. I know they beat Carolina last week and Carolina stinks, I get it. But they've been moving the ball multiple weeks. They moved the ball against Pittsburgh for the last three quarters of that game. And I think Mays, I don't know, this Sunday night spot for them with Brable as the Coach, understanding what that means. This is a kitchen sink game for them. I thought they were intentionally a little bit vanilla last week. There's some wrinkles in there. There's Diggs coming back to Buffalo.

01:17:10

And I don't think Buffalo has looked that good this season. The most exciting game they had all year was beating Baltimore. And then after week four, do we feel that great about lightening up Baltimore? I thought the Saints were hanging around with them in a really disturbing way last week. So the eight and a half just seems high to me. I don't know what the right I would be maybe seven, but eight and a half is a lot of points, and I think we should grab them.

01:17:34

Yeah, I don't disagree. I'm not doing this because we're pals and because the Patriots are upstarts.

01:17:41

No, you love to make fun of me when we take the bet.

01:17:44

At the outset of the season, we have a bet that Washington is going to end up with two more wins in the Patriots over the course of the season. So it's not like I'm heavily invested in the Patriots. This is just a bet. You know who agrees with you that the Patriots can move the ball and score? Vegas. This is the highest total on the board at 49. 5, and there were 50s out there over the course of the week. It's just a point and a half too many points. Buffalo can win by margin. We've seen it, but not against an offense like what the Patriots are able to bring to the table here. I like the idea of the extra one and a half points. That's the way I would handicap it. I like this. I do like the Patriots He's getting eight and a half.

01:18:31

I don't think Buffalo has enough of a pass rush to force May to make some of the mistakes he's made. I think they've intentionally not had him use his legs that much because they're saving him for games like this. Not to compare him to Mahomes by any stretch. But those big games for the Chiefs when Mahomes actually uses his legs and has the 10, 11 rushes, I think May, those plays are in there, and they haven't... They've been intentionally holding him back. When he's moving around, he turns the corner as well as any quarterback of the 25 and under generation. He flies around that corner and takes these hard angles, and the pass rushers can't get him. There's a parlay here where we could take the pats up to 11 and a half on Fandol with the over of 37 and a half if you wanted to even get more points out of this. So I'm just flagging that one as well.

01:19:24

That would be our little parlay thing?

01:19:26

If we wanted to do that or we could just man up and take the pats straight up. And then the last one is Chiefs, Jags in Jacksonville. Chiefs minus three. Dboa advanced metrics all around the same, except the Jags played the Panthers, the Bengals, The Texans and the 49ers. Probably should have lost the Texans game or had a chance to. You could also say they could have beaten the Bengals and they could be 4-0 right now. I think my case here I think Jacksonville is the good bad team. I think they're just going to beat the other bad teams. I like this. I think this step is a step too high for them, playing on a Monday night at home with a big crowd and the Chiefs really starting to figure out who they are and with a little more speed. I just don't want to take Trevor Lawrence against Mahomes.

01:20:22

Nor do I.

01:20:24

Chiefs minus three seems like a nice fun one on Monday. Don't you think that gets to three and a half by Monday I think.

01:20:30

Probably. Yeah, I'm comfortable with this. And it's already minus 118 right now. The three is. So wouldn't be surprised to see it jump.

01:20:39

All right. Well, we only have four bets here. So make your Colts case.

01:20:45

It's really a Raiders case. We keep saying the game, the spot that the Raiders were supposed to show us that they were going to be competitive this year was at home against the fucking bears after they went on the road and laid a giant egg against the on Monday night and then went to Washington and laid another egg. We said, Oh, okay. Well, this is a get-right spot for the Raiders. They're going to come home and they'll move the ball. They move the ball, it will, against that bear's defense. They ran the ball up and down. It was the first Ashton Genti good game. You know what else they did? They put the effing ball in the other hand's team five times when they were on the bear side of the 50. Five times they did it. Who What is that?

01:21:31

That's Righteous Kill. It's a. It's Gino and Pete Carroll.

01:21:37

An unholy reunion.

01:21:40

Worst reunion ever.

01:21:42

If we think this cult thing is legit at all. Why are we afraid of the idea? Gino has thrown into, and I haven't had a chance to sit down and do any of the real deep PFF, deeper than turnover worthy, where you go into the windows that throwing into. But it's as though he doesn't see defenders. He's not colorblind. He's linebacker blind because he keeps seeing things that aren't there.

01:22:11

Can I give you the Bill Simmons DBOA for Gino? Let's hear it. Sucky, sucky. Not just the seven interceptions, but Salem passes. I thought that Monday night game against the Chargers, the Chargers were dying to let them back in that game. Remember? And he was just missing wide open guys. He really just looks like he's not himself. I mean, so are you thinking parlay for this potentially?

01:22:35

I don't know. We came up with four bets thus far that don't have anything exotic about them, right? They're all sides that we like.

01:22:44

Right. So would you go over with this?

01:22:47

What about a money line parlay?

01:22:50

With the over?

01:22:52

I don't know. We can't money line parlay with another team?

01:22:57

No.

01:22:57

Okay.

01:22:58

No, we could. We definitely could. Why? What team are you thinking?

01:23:04

Well, it would be the Rams, my favorite play of the week. I have so much money.

01:23:08

The Rams is happening four hours from now. We can't do that.

01:23:11

It'll be hilarious when people hear this and somehow San Francisco beat the Rams because that is by far my favorite bet on the board.

01:23:19

I can promise you that's not going to happen. What about... What's a number for alternate total points that would get your attention?

01:23:32

Alternate total points.

01:23:33

41 and a half?

01:23:34

Like an over for that? See, my problem is I don't want to- 42 and a half.

01:23:40

I don't want to mess with that. Colts-raders, 43 points.

01:23:42

See, I don't want to mess with the total Because what if the Raiders only score 14 points?

01:23:49

With the Colts cornerback situation, the Colts had a guy who played, I think most of the game, Xavier Howard last week. He retired. He deserved to retire. They had a starting Started, quarterback retired.

01:24:02

That's a bleak situation. He made the right call. It was a good decision by him.

01:24:08

The only reason I noticed him was he was the guy running after the guy who was wide open Four times a game in the close game. So I think it was a good move.

01:24:18

Here's what I'm going to propose. Let me see if it works out.

01:24:20

By the way, this game's in Indianapolis.

01:24:22

I know. I'm aware. The Raiders are going to go on the road. This feels fair to me.

01:24:27

I know, but I said this to Sal on Sunday night, This is the fear with the Raiders is Gino isn't really comfortable until he's a big dog ready to mess up some teases and parlays for people. That's when he feels the most comfortable. He doesn't want to be a favorite.

01:24:44

Well, that's why I'm suggesting all we do is play the Colts on the Money Line. Let me see if I can get you to agree to the Colts and the Eagles together. That's minus 107. That's a Money Line parlay. It's square. I'm acknowledging that it's square, but I'll I'll take it. I already told Bo Nicks to stick it in my face, and then it would be Gino going on the road and beating Daniel Jones, which sounds hilarious, except he's been really good.

01:25:13

Colts, Eagles, minus 107?

01:25:16

Yeah. We don't have to do it. Listen, we do Ringer 107.

01:25:23

I get two pics, we share two pics, and then you get your own pick. You could just make this your own pick.

01:25:27

Okay, this is my pick. I'm willing to live it. I'll take all the ridicule. I'm willing to live with it. I'm sure that it's square.

01:25:36

Okay.

01:25:36

I don't care. I don't care. Let Bo Nix go beat the Eagles.

01:25:40

I'm willing to live with it.

01:25:41

Let Bo next go beat the eagles and let Gino go into Indianapolis and beat Indiana Jones.

01:25:48

All right. Today's Ringer 107 is brought to you by our friends at FanDuel, who also sponsors our Ringer Sunday pregame show. You can watch Houses on that one. It's on our YouTube channel. We come on at 11: 30. What are we coming on during these weird Sunday early games?

01:26:06

We're 11: 30. It's just the game is all we're talking about. Why would it change?

01:26:11

Get all the bets. You, Sal, the Bundo, JJ, Rahim, The whole crew's there. A lot of great bets. They'll be talking Ringer 107 on there. We're 8: 12 for the season. Had some bad luck. I only feel really shitty about two of those picks, and I feel like we got hosed on a couple. I'm I'm not panicking. I'm not nervous. I think we have a good feel for the slate. Ringer 107, first one, Seahawks minus three at home against the banged up Bucks. House and I are both a little more bullish on the Seahawks than maybe the lines are reflecting. Still plus 360 to win their division. I don't know. I like this team. I think this line probably moves up, right, House, to three and a half, maybe by Sunday.

01:26:53

Wouldn't surprise me one bit. It's already, the juice is there.

01:26:57

We're grabbing it at three, and if Baker Mayfield beats Godspeed. It's happened before. I tipped my hat to that man. He's a legend. Texans at Baltimore, Texans minus one and a half. This is a bet against Cooper Rush, and it's a bet against If Cooper Rush doesn't play because Banged Up Lamar is playing, it's a bet against Banged Up. Can't really use his legs, Lamar. And it's a bet against a Baltimore defense that has been absolutely violated and has given up 133 points. This feels like a get-right spot for the Texans. And you love their defense.

01:27:30

I do. I think there's plenty to support loving their defense.

01:27:35

Did that guy get suspended that they have who does a cheap shot every Alshayer?

01:27:40

I don't think so.

01:27:42

He didn't get suspended for that, right?

01:27:43

I don't think so, but he does He gets suspended every year, so it's only a matter of time.

01:27:46

I hope he won't get suspended in this game. All right. Chiefs minus three on Monday night against the Jaguars. I made the case to you that I thought the Jags were the good bad team, and you liked it.

01:27:57

We're rolling with Mahomey. This is easy. Mahomey. This is not We're not going to...

01:28:00

This is it. By the way, I said Josh Allen was the best QB in the league. Mahomes could take it back in three weeks. Who knows?

01:28:07

Plus 650 for MVP. That's a good price.

01:28:11

Patriots plus eight and a half in Buffalo on a Sunday night in the biggest game of Drake May's career by far, the first big Mike Vrabel Patriots game, a Patriots team that I feel like has been keeping stuff in their back pocket for this game the last couple of weeks. And And a Buffalo team that just does not look that inspiring. And the Saints were moving the ball on them. They have a lot of injuries on defense. You can run the ball on them. On the flip side, they're going to score. And I think for the For the pats to hang with this eight and a half, they're going to have to put up points. They're going to have to maybe even get a backdoor cover. But I think they can hang around, hang around, hang around. I also love the over in this game. I just think there's going to be a lot of points. This to me feels like a 33 to 27, 36 to 30, in that range. You agree with that?

01:29:04

Oh, that's fine. Yes, that's all fine. Those are all winners for us.

01:29:08

All right. So I had two of those picks. We shared two of them, and then the house got his own pick because that's how we do it in Ringer 107. And you like the Indianapolis Money Line at home against the failing Las Vegas Raiders parlayed with the Eagles Money Line against Denver. I actually like Denver plus four and a half. You, Shio Capate, made the case. They don't lose when Jalen Hertz starts and finishes games. They've won 18 straight. Defense looked a lot better last week until the heat did them in. Colts, Eagles, Money Line parlay minus 107, make the case.

01:29:45

Yeah. This is a last opportunity to go against Gino, it feels like. We're not going to get lines of less than a countdown. Where's he going? When they play good teams. I don't know. To the eye doctor because he's He's linebacker blind.

01:30:01

He's a quarterback blind. Maybe that's what it is. It's like when my eyesight changed, when I turned 44 and my eyesight got better, my contacts... I thought I had a brain tumor, and it was just my contacts were too strong. Maybe Gino needs to get his eyesight checked.

01:30:14

Yes. The eagles portion of this is just, show me, Boenex. Show me one time.

01:30:20

Well, you were a lot more explicit before. Today's Ringer 107 was brought to you by Fandil. Odds subject to change. Have you done any NBA homework?

01:30:30

I haven't really started yet. I know it's coming. It's October. Today's October the second.

01:30:34

Coming faster than you realize. We're two and a half weeks away. You're right.

01:30:38

I'll be ready. Don't worry.

01:30:40

We had Golden State sign, Kaminga. I have to tell you. They announced the Al Hoerford thing.

01:30:45

I did bet. The Celtics are 42 and a half or 43 and a half.

01:30:51

I thought they were 41.

01:30:53

Whatever it is, I bet the over. I bet it last week. I'm just telling you right now, you're going to be happy. I I think that's a crazy number for the East. All of a sudden, all these trash teams in the East are going to win 45 to low 50 games. Get out of here. The Celtics are going to be a 500 team. They're going to be better than that just because they get to play in the East.

01:31:17

They're 41 and a half. Yeah, great. Right now in FanDuel.

01:31:20

I'm telling you, I bet it. That's the only NBA bet that I can think of off the top of my head right now.

01:31:25

I've been making the case that just the system they have and all the three is they're going to shoot and how fast they're going to play. There was only one thing from the Tatum injury that I'm not even using the word a positive. I'm just saying that will change their style in a potentially positive way. Is Tatum As you know, it used to drive me crazy. Would walk the ball up, walk the ball up, start the shot clock late. They're going to fucking run a gun now. They're going to push the pace, shoot threes, run off, made baskets. They're They're going to shoot 55 threes a game. And I think they're going to be weird to play. I think teams are going to be like, oh, shit. We have to play this track me team. And then they'll change their style when Tatum comes back, if he comes back this year. I was all... I don't want to do the over and under because we're in a couple of weeks, but I just wanted to mention the Hawks is up to over 47. 5.

01:32:26

That's what I mean. That's just crazy. I love the The Hawks.

01:32:30

47 and a half.

01:32:31

We've been enthusiastic about the Hawks, but respectfully, get the fuck out of here. It's like...

01:32:38

38-34 is like a real record.

01:32:40

Yeah, that's for a real team. I like it over. We like what they did in the offseason, but holy cow.

01:32:49

What did you think of Michael Pina making the case that Wemby at 12 to 1 for MVP has to at least be, or not make the case, but brought it up? I mean, it's fine. The Wemby guys are Jose season could be- I'm going to put 50 bucks on it.

01:33:02

Every year that he's... I bet him to win the MVP last year, some crazy number. I'm going to bet Wemby to win the MVP every year that he's in the league. It's like a layaway plan. Just like a layaway plan.

01:33:13

Yeah, exactly. I don't mind that. It's fine. My favorite... So I'm trying to... The preseason, reading all the stories. I can't get enough of the Philly coverage. We had actually a good piece on the Ringer this week about them. This Mori now doing the, We wanted to more youth on the team and blah, blah, blah. It's like, Oh, yeah, that's why you have Joe Embiid and Paul George. All like the spin. But that is, I think, I've I'll use this analogy a couple of times. I think that is the ceiling for most floors between the ceiling and the floor team. Okay. You could tell me 20 wins. You could tell me 52.

01:33:54

Oh, guess what? I tried 50 last year. Yeah, you lost. I'm not going to tell you what hole went into my orifices, but it still hurts. Still hurts. I still haven't recovered.

01:34:07

They're 42 and a half. Sure. Whatever. Anyone who bets that just has a gambling problem.

01:34:15

That's right.

01:34:16

Just flat out, I have an issue. That's like when Sal's betting on the Singapore Open when there's no football.

01:34:25

Or whatever this German League soccer. I think he's He does that sometimes.

01:34:30

Tennis. He definitely 100% does that sometimes. You're Wizards, by the way. 21 and a half for the over-under. I like the over.

01:34:38

It's right at the number. Like 22, okay. 21, okay. Both of those are fair numbers. I don't know.

01:34:46

They're just going to have to keep trading veterans that might even show any sign of helping them or not.

01:34:52

Well, you know what? You missed this, by the way. You and Zack missed this. The obvious answer for Houston is C. J. Mccollum. He's sitting right there. He's extremely available, and he would go there and immediately, I might even argue that he's at least an equal to Fred VanVleet. I don't know if he's an upgrade, but he's at least treading water competency-wise, offensive acumen-wise, leadership-wise. Ceej McCollum and KD, that's pretty fucking good.

01:35:28

Didn't they beef once about C. J. They had a podcast seven years ago, and they talked about how they could have beaten the title, and Kevin Durant was like, You mean over the Warriors? Do you remember that moment? There's something funny that happened with them. You're right. Wait, so C. J. Mccollum, who's on the Washington Wizards somehow. I can't believe you have him on your team. That's so weird.

01:35:52

For a minute, for at least five minutes, he's on our team.

01:35:55

So you're saying Van Bleet makes $24 million a year and C. J. Makes That's tough to trade Van Bleet. He's the leader of the team, though. I guess he's out for the year.

01:36:07

He's not going to play. They need players. They're trying to win. They're in the top five of winning the NBA title. They're in the top three of winning the Western Conference without Van Bled.

01:36:17

They trade him there in January, and then Washington waves him, maybe. Maybe he's got one of those deals where he can, I don't know, clear option for year or two.

01:36:28

Anything is possible in the NBA. Just ask Kawhi. That's pretty cold. What's cold?

01:36:35

It's cold to just... The guy trades his ACL, and it's like, Hey, bad news. We've traded you to Washington. You'll finish your rehab there. I mean, that's it.

01:36:43

What do you think? How about Isaiah Thomas? Do you think Isaiah Thomas with the Celtics did the hit?

01:36:48

Well, that was cold. I didn't feel good about the Isaiah Thomas thing. Any other NBA story lines you're excited about?

01:36:56

I'm a little bit... Nothing yet. I want to pour some settled down juice on the Golden State Warriors situation. Which part? Well, the news this week that they took care of Kominga and they got the Alhore for deal done. And now they're really excited. They're looking, they think they're in that upper echelon. They think that they're among the... They think that if they had that team that went 24 and 7 down the stretch, that's the identity. Okay. All right. Let's see. But I'm, count me mildly skeptical.

01:37:30

45 and a half over for them.

01:37:32

Perfect number. 45 and a half is a perfect number for them.

01:37:38

I dig my favorite so far. I don't want to step on the pod. Charlotte, 26 and a half I've been staring at.

01:37:48

Which way he could play it?

01:37:50

Over.

01:37:51

Wow.

01:37:53

Let me hear why. I think they're going to be really fun for the first two months of the season. I don't know. I like the guys in their team. Remember last year, we really liked Brooklyn before the year as a like, that team's not bad. They have professional basketball players. And then we were right. And then they immediately and frantically had to trade a lot of those guys to get them off the team. They hit their over. I think they hit their over.

01:38:18

We did. They did hit their over.

01:38:20

I think Charlotte, first of all, they're not going to... They're going to be too competent to potentially train. They don't have anyone to train. They have a young guys.

01:38:31

This is Kenanpel. This is your boy. I understand what's going on here.

01:38:36

This is Brandon Miller, year three, coming back. All right. This is Miles Bridges. This is Grant Williams, eventually come back. This is LaMelo, trying to play 60 games? I don't know. I think they have some talent.

01:38:48

They do have talent.

01:38:50

Because the difference with them versus your team is you're going to be trying to get rid of guys that can help you. Charlotte can't do that. I don't even think they'd mind if they were good.

01:39:01

Who's their starting center? I can't pull it off. They trade at every center. They trade at all their centers.

01:39:06

Listen, that's where it becomes an issue. I'll give you their team. Hold on. It's looking like it might be a Plumly.

01:39:24

Sure. That's phenomenal.

01:39:26

God bless them. There's a Plumly involved. Liam McNeely is on this team.

01:39:32

Congratulations to him. Congratulations to him.

01:39:34

Oh, yeah. Spencer Dinwiddie is on this team.

01:39:38

Kyle Kuzma's favorite. Din Shitty.

01:39:41

One of the Martin twins is on here. Josh Green.

01:39:44

I wish them the best of luck.

01:39:47

If you always trade for a center.

01:39:48

A 27. Okay, I don't mind a 27.

01:39:51

Well, here's the thing. This is why I bring it up. I think one of these East teams will be... Just because there's so many bad East teams, one I heard these teams be like, All right, fine. We'll be the one that wins 32 games. It goes 32 and 50. I would say they're a candidate.

01:40:05

Is there any information out there about whether or not Malik Beesley is going to be allowed to play basketball in the NBA this coming season?

01:40:12

Not a lot.

01:40:14

Not a lot of information. Detroit can't resign them? They don't have the CAP room anymore?

01:40:22

I think they can resign them, and they do have the CAP room.

01:40:24

Oh, okay. This is- It's weird.

01:40:28

They close the investigation Shane, and then the investigation doesn't seem like it's totally over.

01:40:33

Because the NBA is conducting its own investigation after the district attorney's office cleared him. So I'm excited to hear what the NBA comes up with that the district attorney's office didn't find.

01:40:45

I think the NBA is way more interested in figuring out this Clippers thing so it doesn't linger around the next four months of the season and affect the All-Star Game and all that shit. How did you feel about Nikoli Yovitch signing a four-year rookie extension with the Heat for 62. 4 million dollars. Do you think that would be in our worst contract draft with Bigwas in early March?

01:41:13

I mean, it's an amazing job by him and his agent. The Heat, what are we going to do with the Heat? I don't have an opinion on Jovich.

01:41:22

Can I give you some Jovich stats? He's played 107 of a possible 246 games.

01:41:29

How can you have an opinion on him?

01:41:31

Go ahead. He averaged a career high 10. 7 points last year. I just thought now that we're into the second APERN era, I thought teams would start to be way more careful about these guys that aren't impact guys. Even the Kaminga thing, I don't feel great about for the warriors. That's a play for it. That's a place for it. That's a place for it. That's the trade.

01:41:54

That's the perfect trade contract.

01:41:56

Who's trading for that? Would you want your team to trade for Kaminga for 24 million?

01:42:01

My team's not competitive.

01:42:02

Then you have to pay them again?

01:42:03

There will be a competitive team out there that sees... They have to do the audition that they've-There's only one team dumb enough, and they are also in California, and they play in the state capital of Sacramento.

01:42:20

Oh, wow. It's the only team dumb enough to talk themselves into 120 million for four years for Kominga.

01:42:26

What makes sense to me, and I'm not kidding, is the Clippers. I think the Clippers If Kuminga could work for the Clippers. I really do think that with what they have, and they have parts- After Kawhi's ban from the NBA? Whatever happens ultimately with Kawhi. The heat are interesting at 37. 5. They feel like they have a move. That's a place that Kuminga can land.

01:42:49

Well, they don't have their pick this year. That's the other thing is these pics are so complicated with who has who's pick You know? Like, San Antonio has, they can swap with Atlanta, but now Atlanta is good. So that pick that they had that they thought was going to be awesome, they don't have it.

01:43:11

We said we weren't going to do it. We're too far down the rabbit hole. We're talking about pick swaps between the Spurs and the Hawks. We should stop. Well, the Clippers.

01:43:19

The Clippers.

01:43:20

We should stop.

01:43:23

The Clippers could either send their first to Philly or OKC. They don't get to keep it, but they're going to be good. I don't know. There's a million things. You're right. We should stop. House, I hope we do well on Ringer 107.

01:43:37

You and me both. I'm knocking on one.

01:43:39

I hope the Rams win tonight in the future, and I hope the Red Sox win tonight against my most hated team, the New York Yankees.

01:43:46

Respectfully, I am rooting for the Red Sox because I can't, under any circumstances, root for the Yankees ever.

01:43:52

Thanks, House. Yeah, my pleasure. Good job by you, as always.

01:43:55

Thank you.

01:43:56

All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Hinchin House. Thanks to Eduardo and How as well. Don't forget new Prestige TV podcast coming this weekend on Sunday. New rewatchable is coming on Monday. Enjoy the weekend. Have a great time. Keep a smile on your face. I'll see you Sunday. Cousin Sal, we'll be going live on YouTube this Sunday, by the way. Live YouTube Sunday, me and Sal. See you then. Must be 21 plus in President's Slate States for Kansas, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus in President DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help. Com. Call 188-789-7777, or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut, or visit mdgamblinghelp. Org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma. Org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support, Massachusetts, or call 1877-8 Hope, NY or text Hope, NY in New.

AI Transcription provided by HappyScribe
Episode description

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Kevin Hench to react to the end of the Red Sox's season (5:43). Then, Joe House joins for their Ringer 107 picks for NFL Week 5 before discussing some early NBA bets (47:22).

Host: Bill Simmons

Guests: Kevin Hench and Joe House

Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo

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