Transcript of The Best College QBs With Todd McShay. Plus, the Irresistible Jags, the Resistible Steelers, and NFL Week 4 Picks With Joe House

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All right, Todd McShea is here. It's been a while. Good to see you.

Good to see you, man. How are we doing?

How are we feeling about football season so far? College football seems like a B minus. Nfl is like a B plus.

I think it's going to go to be B plus for college football this weekend. Oh, good. Yeah, it's a big weekend. Obviously, we've got Penn State and Oregon. We've got Georgia and Alabama. We've got LSU, Ole Miss. So there's nine games with ranked teams. It's a pretty wild slate. But it's been a frustrating year, man. It's like taxi cab confessions for me coming on with you. I've been tiptoeing around it on my show because I'm trying to be careful. And there's some young quarterbacks that I think are playing at a really high level. The veterans who I was... I came into the air screaming at everybody, this is the golden age of quarterbacks. And we've got all these... Last year's class was subpar. This could be close to two years ago in 2024, when we had six drafted in the top 12.

Yeah.

And then the season starts and it's like Nussmaill is struggling. Clubnicks regressed. Arch is not who we thought he was. Sellers gets injured and it's up and down. So it's been a little frustrating. So I'm here to talk about it with you.

All right, let's go rapid fire because I went back and I found your newsletter when you basically did your top 15 heading into the season for a mini mock draft, right? You clubbed nick first in the mock draft at Clemson. They're one and three. There's possible, are we sure he's going to finish the season as the starter stuff happening? Yeah. I mean, we've seen this before. Sanders was one at one point last year on some of the boards, and he fell to the fifth round. But were you shocked that it turned out this badly this fast?

Yes. I'm here to freely admit it. I spent some time at the Manning Passing Academy this summer, just talking to people and getting to know who he is as a guy and he's everything you stand for, and a leader, and just a great human being, and it tax the process. And we saw last year, because back in 2023, he was disappointed. And then last year, as the season progressed, he started to carry Clemson. As they got on that run late in the year, they obviously got to the ASE Championship game, won that, got to the playoff. Even in the loss to Texas, he did some really good things. I remember sitting there in Thibodeau, Louisiana, with the general manager. He didn't quite dive into the quarterbacks yet. I'm like, he's not there yet, talking about Club But I think he's ready to take that next step. And so far, it's been really disappointing. He lost his top receiver in the first game, the first quarter of the first game against LSU, Antonio So the Williams comes back this past week, and he doesn't look comfortable in the pocket. He doesn't look comfortable with his reads.

He's panicky. It's not at all what I expected. And it's disappointing for Clemson fans, obviously. It's I'm pointing for NFL general managers who thought, like me, he could take that next step. And so you look around the landscape, and not to shift gears. The thing I'm most shocked about, because I didn't have him on my preseason ranking, so I'm not sure if you'd even bring him Dante Moore from Oregon is the best passer of the football in all of college football. He's what the NFL is looking for. And the problem with Dante was he came out and he wasn't great in the lead 11 stuff and all of that. He went to UCLA, and that thing was a mess. I think he started five games. Transfers last year, we don't hear about him. Reports out of Eugene this summer, he's in a quarterback battle, has not established himself. And then he comes into the season. And the reason I've been slow to bring him up, and I finally talked about what I saw on tape on just the show yesterday. The reason I've been slow is I have a responsibility, right? And I talk to general managers, and what I I don't like his head coach is calling me in the college football and saying, You got my guy in the first round, and he's not ready yet.

I'm really careful with these young quarterbacks, especially. We've seen that from Trent Richardson to Trubisky to Mark Sanchez, the 13 starts and inexperienced guys, it's not working. And so I don't want to jump in headfirst and be like, I'm all in on this guy, but I'm all in on this guy.

Wow. Okay.

Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State. None of them are good. None of them. And so I'm saying this before Penn State this week, a whiteout night game, Happy Valley, all of it. And it may not go perfectly, but When you see it and you know it, it's just there. His ability to drive the ball down the field, he reminds me that he's just a smooth criminal throwing the ball. He's got some parts of Jordan love. He's got some aspects of C. J. Stroud at his best. He's got some Baker Mayfield to him. Catchable ball, driving it down the field, using his eyes to see the whole thing and manipulate defenders. He's just the best pure passer in the country. And I can now say that after four Could you see a world where he's the number one pick next April? I absolutely could, but I hope he's not. I hope he's not in the 2026 draft. For him, not for Oregon, even though obviously, Will Stein is a tremendous... I mean, Will Stein came in and Eric a relative unknown as the offensive coordinator at Oregon. Look what Bo Nix did under him. Remember, Bo Nix was a laughing stock in NFL scouting circles at Auburn.

Well, now it's circling back.

I don't know if you've seen him this season. I I hear you, but he's the 12th overall pick. He played really well his rookie year. So I'm just saying, but what Will Stein got and then what he developed him into is the 12th overall pick. Then he gets Dylan Gabriel, who's not nearly as talented as Bo Nix and not nearly as talented as Dante Moore. And he's a third-round pick and won the starting job. Pickets out. Shador is on the sideline watching during practice. So another year with Will Stein, I think, would be the best thing for Dante Moore. But if you're asking me right now based off of a tiny sample size and four starts at Oregon. I think he's tracking to be the number one overall pick if things continue to play out. Yeah. That's why I wanted to jump the gun here and get that in there.

Well, the four you had before the season And I love these lists because it just shows you, not you, just everybody. We're trying to predict kids that are 19, 20, 21, 22, right? Yeah. Who the fuck knows what's happening with them off the field? They might have some girlfriend break up with them. They might have some roommate they don't like. You just don't know. It's all the variables in place. But you had Clubnik first, you have Nussmaier fourth, you had Sauer sixth, you have Mendoza, 15th, and then Penn State quarterback, Al is not in there. Matier, who people have gotten excited about this season. The Baylor quarterback, Carson Beck. We got to talk about the Beckesants. And then Dante Moore. And then we didn't mention Arch Manning, who got the most attention of everybody before the year. But now, you didn't think he was coming out to begin with. You were pretty adamant. He is not coming out. This will not happen. But now there's no way he's coming out anyway, right?

Yeah. I tried to warn everyone starting back in May. And I have a great deal of respect and a relationship with the Mannings, and I can absolutely separate business from friendship. Even Archid, his best on tape last year, just wasn't ready. And there were some things, some warning signs that saw on tape. And Sarkisian, there's a reason that the Mannings chose Steve Sarkisian in Texas, because he can mask things and develop quarterbacks better than the vast majority of people in college football.

You think that's a huge reason why they picked him?

I think the developmental aspect of it, and Texas's resources, and everything that the program has going for him. But I'd be lying to you if I told you I thought we'd see this. I mean, from the mechanics to the lack of certainty and decisiveness as a thrower to just the flat out misses, he's got a long way to go. And I'm not saying he can't. We saw Jaden Daniels was a third, fourth-round prospect going into his final year at LSU. He was considered like a fifth, sixth, seventh-round guy when he came to LSU. So Kam Ward was a fifth-rounder. If you pulled NFL scouts like Pete Thamble does for game day when he pulls NFL scouts. Kam Ward was a fourth, fifth coming into last year. He's the number one overall pick.

Even September, there was no chance. He was not on anybody's radar to go first.

No.

You know what? I think a big piece of this is? Because I watched that entire first game Archmania had. It just couldn't have been more impressive. When you think of all the hype that comes in. I was trying to think, is there another sport that we have where there's more pressure on somebody who's 19, 20, when you're old.

Maybe, I mean, you would know better, but maybe the NBA when a guy comes out of high school.

The thing with the NBA is, even if they come in after one year and they're 19, they're always going to a bad team. They're not in a situation where there's like Spotlight expectations, title chances at stake, any of that stuff. You come in and it's like a bonus if they're good in the first couple of years. Like Anthony Edwards, when he went to Minnesota, nobody remembers what team he was on that first year. It's like, oh, he might be good. This is great. You have a situation like some of these guys that come in where not only are they being discussed in the best possible ceiling of whatever could happen when they haven't even done anything yet, but then you also have these giant, giant games, all the discourse about it. You're going to a stadium with 80,000 people. I just feel like when it craters, it feels like it would crater the most in college football for a QB.

Our arch is an economy right now in Austin. When you I can't remember a guy who hasn't been a true starter coming into a year where it was like, Heisman favorite, like FanDuel. These are not places that lose money. Number one overall pick by a lot of people who weren't in the know, but a lot of people who were highly respected in this space.

Meanwhile, you didn't even think he was coming out.

No. What about the Manning history and the Manning's devotion to process and development, and Eli going back for his fifth year, and Payton going back for his final year at Tennessee? What about that told anybody that he would be coming out after this year? But it was a perfect story. Even talking to people in a circle, that weighs on a young man. All of that attention. He can't go to the convenience store and grab a bottle of water in a candy bar without people filming him and taking pictures with. So you're thrust into all of that. And by the way, you may may not be quite as talented as some people thought, and your mechanics and the way you trust, it's not there yet. Texas is coming off the college football playoff. They're talking like, Oh, that was cute with Quint Newer's last year, but now we got our guy, national championship in the state of Texas. I can't imagine more... And the back of his jersey says Manning.

Well, how about first game, Ohio State on the road, 80,000 people.

Patricia, right? Yeah. Yeah. And I placed it... Outside of Michigan, nobody goes and wins. It couldn't have been a harder setup for a young man to walk into.

All right. So you had Nussmaier fourth, and he brings a lot of stuff to the table that I personally like that I feel like at some point I'm going to translate that there's some leadership, charisma stuff with him that I always overvalued when I just floated into college football. And I'm like, oh, that guy seems like... But But it's been disappointing for him, too. So what's going on with him?

It has been so far. Of all the guys who have struggled, I'm still hopeful with Nussmaier that he's going to start to put it together. He's got some new This is around him. He's got four new offensive linemen. As you know, their best one was drafted by the Patriots, Will Campbell.

By the way, I've enjoyed it. I've enjoyed the Will Campbell there. It's a little bit of a bully.

That was a fun five-month, you and going back and forth and just watching your whole mindset change on that.

Listen, I didn't decided not to get flicked out by somebody's arms being a half inch shorter than they should be.

Or an inch and a half.

Whatever it is. I just decided not to freak out. Anyway, I interrupt you?

No, Nussmaher plays the game neck up better than any other quarterback in the country. What made Nussmaher so enticing and intriguing last year was his aggressive style. But it It came with some of the mistakes and some of the critical moments, or he was trusting it too much or overly aggressive. And so I've now seen him overcorrect, where it seems like it's very clear. Lsu now has a defense. They didn't have one last year. Lsu has a semblance of a run game, although not great, but they didn't have at all a running. They had one of the worst running games of a Power Four school in all of football last year. So he has been trained by Brian Kelly and that staff that, Hey, you don't have to carry this team like you did last year. And so he was trying to play within the construct of the team. And I think it's leading to a little bit more hesitation and not as... John Matier, I don't know if you've watched him at all from Oklahoma.

Let's talk about him because he seems like another one who's gaining steam.

He's a lunatic.

Yeah.

And I know he's got the hand injury, and so now it's a setback, and he could be out three, four weeks. But I suspect he'll come back, and it will be right back at it. He's a different cat. You talk about the work ethic and the competitiveness. I remember there's this play against Texas Tech last year. I'm watching Washington State before he transferred, Texas Tech, fourth quarter, up 34 to 17, midway through the fourth quarter. Pick up a first down. Let's run out this clock. Let's get out of here. He picks up the first down and goes bolting towards this left sideline, gets tracked cuts. At that point, it's like, Come on, John, just step out of bounds, right? Cuts back inside, takes off. He runs like a four or five. He looks like a fullback. I met him in person. I'm like, No, where's John? The Manning's brought in a guy, a fullback to catch some outlets. He's got these huge legs, but he cuts back in running like a 4-4-8, 4-5-0, and goes darting down towards the end zone. Two defenders come converge on him, and I'm watching it sitting here in my office with my remote, and I'm like, Just go down, just slide.

And he looks up these two defensive backs and starts stiff armoring them, both of them. And I was like, Oh, this guy's built different. He's just a competitive lunatic.

So who's the comparison to him? Because that seems like an unusual in a phone corner.

I think he's a faster Baker Mayfield. He's got a good arm, but Baker's got a stronger arm. But he plays with that urgency and that excitement. And there's no throw that he's afraid to attempt. So it does get him into trouble, a little bit like Nussmaier a year ago. But he does so many things in terms of driving the ball down the field and showing up in clutch moments. If he comes back and plays the way he was playing prior, and he bet on himself. It was like Flacko that year with the Super Bowl run. Totally bet on himself. He could have gone to Wisconsin. He could have gone to... He had all these different offers. He looked at Oklahoma and said, I I got to show that this style works in the SEC, and I got to prove it. And by the way, outside of maybe Florida, I don't know if there's a team in the country that has a tougher schedule. They'd play five ranked opponents to finish out the year. And that's after Texas. And that's after they've already played Michigan and Auburn. So he bet on himself, and so far he's shown it.

And if he comes back and plays the same clip that he was playing, I think Mateer is going to be a first-round draft pick.

High first down, high first round, mid-first round, or lower first round?

I could see more like a Jackson dart range, like mid-late. I think there will be some intrigue. He's not the tallest guy. His mechanics are all over the place, so he leaves four or five throws on the field.

The teams fall in love with the guy. They fall in love with the person. They fall in love with the interviews.

And what he can be if we drill in some of the footwork stuff and all that.

Tell me about sellers of Mendoza because you had seller six and Mendoza, 15 before the year. Mendoza has had a little climb, right?

He has. He's played really well. Let's start with sellers. I think a lot like Dante more, but even more emphasis for me. The same with more sellers and Mendoza. They can all be eligible. They can all come back and be in that 2027 draft, okay? Yeah. Sellers is the furthest away development-wise. I've already said Nussmaillers, the the best in terms of neck up. Dante Moore is the best pure passer in all of college football.

Is that a rating for you, neck up? Do you have a- I think it's going to have to be from now on. I like my neck up rankings.

I don't know what the scale would be. Yeah, he's number one in the neck up board. But Sellers is the most physically gifted of all of them. He does things like, athlet and then throws he makes that are just like, very few people can do that. But we said some of the same stuff about Anthony Richardson, right? Oh, boy.

Too soon.

No, I know. But I'm very hopeful that whether it's at South Carolina or if he transfers somewhere, whatever it is, that Sellers comes back for another year. He had the injury, a setback for just a minute.

This is such a weird sport, by the way, that you've done this now three times just in the last 20 minutes where you're projecting wherever he is, wherever he transfers next year. This is just the sport we have now, where we have no idea. No, I know. No, I'm just saying it's like we have no idea where this guy is going to be next year because this is Ring Around the Rosie now. It's not an actual anything.

It is. And honestly, here's the Just take away my love for college football and the game and the sport and all of it. Just as an NFL evaluator, what would Bo Nicks be without that transfer?

So you're pro. I like this. You're pro Ring Around the Rosie.

What What would Kam Ward be if he didn't go from Incarnate Word to Washington State to Miami? What would Jaden Daniels be if he stayed at Arizona State and came out early?

What about Carson Beck right now?

What about Carson Beck? So it's not always the best fit, and we can get to Beck in a minute. That was the right fit moving from Georgia to Miami. For some of these guys, go be in more of a pro-style system. Go get a new, fresh set of coaching and put your eyes on something different. Go develop in the second place. Jaden Daniels was ready when he came in, man. Bo Nicks was ready, but the ceiling... I had a second-round grade on Bo. I'm just not the biggest fan. But you can't tell me he wasn't ready. All these guys are coming in with 50, 60 starts, and they're more ready. And it goes back to the Parcells stuff from years ago. You can tweak the numbers a little bit, but Parcells was on it. Be a college graduate, be a starter for three years, have 30 starts, have a bunch of wins. So I just think it's an important experience. It's why I hate sitting here on your show, which is going to have more eyes and viewers, unfortunately, than mine. But seriously, and saying, Dante Mohr is the best.

He's the number one prospect. This show is doing great, just for the record.

Thank you. I appreciate it. And we're loving it. But I hesitate, and that's why I've been hesitant to come out and say this stuff. But Mohr is the best, and Sellers is the most gifted.

I love it. Well, yeah, I trust you completely. So when you go all in on somebody, I just follow you. You did it last year. I appreciate it. Yeah. I mean, you nailed the draft last year. You're red hot right now.

You got to keep the momentum going, right?

We got to take a break, and then I want to finish this and talk about some NFL guys that I have a fun gimmick for. The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by FanDuel. It is one of the biggest weeks of the year, and FanDuel is turning into a mega full-on celebration. Fanduel Boost Fest every day, September 25th to 28th, brings you a 50% profit boost on the biggest matchups in football, baseball, golf, a lot of golf this weekend, and more. I'm excited to do Ryder Cup bets parlayed with NFL bets and maybe even some Sunday baseball bets as well. Nothing makes me happier than a multi-sport parlay. However you play, that 50% profit boost is ready to every single day during Boost Fest. Strong name. Download the Fandil app or head to fandil. Com/bs to jump into Boost Fest, where the games are big and the boosts are bigger. You must be 21 plus President, select states or 18 plus, and President DC, Kentucky, Wyoming. Opt In Required Bonus, issued as non-advocable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration, max wage or amount. See terms at sportsbook. Fandil. Com. Gamble problem, call 100 Gamble or visit rg-help.

Com. Call or visit ccpg. Org/chat-in-connect. This episode is brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket. My friend, NFL Sundays are back. You won't want to miss the action. Nfl Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. Another friend of mine lets you catch every game every Sunday all in one place. Now, get NFL Sunday ticket month to month and cancel anytime. Head to youtube. Com/bs and sign up now. Local and national games on YouTube TV. Nfl Sunday ticket for Adam market games excludes digital only games and commercial use. If you cancel YouTube TV, you will lose access to NFL Sunday ticket. Terms of Bargo's device and content restrictions apply, commercial use excluded. Renews every month during the 2025 regular season. Cancel anytime. We didn't talk about Mendoza. What are you seeing? Indiana QB.

I'm seeing a guy that's found his home. Again, he can come back for another year. I don't know that he's going to... He completed all but two passes against Illinois. He comes out and he was a little bit up and down. They were trying to be vanilla and not show what they were doing. Frank Signetti. I know you love my guy, Mensch. Steve Mensch. He is the great line of the RCF, the resting Signetti face. And that's who he is. He's just crusty, but he pops off. But Signetti wouldn't let Mendoza go to the Manning Pass Academy to somewhere. He wanted him there in the bubble, working the scheme. It's RPO-based. It's all quick decisions, fast lost eyes. And so when you get done with 30 throws in a game, maybe only seven or eight are like NFL style throws that you can start to create a catalog on. So he's going to have this high percentage, and the numbers are going to look great. But when you dig into him, he's 6'5, he's 2. 25, he's got mobility, he's got a good arm, he can be inconsistent. And so I want to see as the season progresses and the schedule gets harder.

But there's talent there. And I've talked to some people in the league who are like, Yeah, I see more third round. I've talked to some people like, if he puts it all together, he could be first round. So to me, he's top 50 right now, and it's a wait and see. But I really liked him coming out of Cal last year, and I was hopeful that he would get off to this start.

And Carson Beck, what happens with this? Give me the ceiling and give me the basement.

I had to quit Carson Beck for a minute.

Like cigarettes?

Yeah, like cigarettes. I had to put the box down and come back later.

They get rid of them?

Yes, like Nicolette, whatever it was. It was frustrating to watch him at Georgia because it felt like every throw, the weight of the world was on him. And he was He was overthinking. He was making his... Even on the completions, making his receivers really work. And nothing felt smooth. He didn't look relaxed and playing free and easy and all that. And then the season ends and then it begs the question. I have sources, and I talk to It's like, Georgia's got money. If Georgia really wants him back, and Gunner Stockton, their starter now who's played really well, he's not setting the world on fire with physical tools. But they were like, Yeah, thanks for your service. Go ahead. You can transfer to Miami. They didn't put up a fight. And then it's like, all right, now he's buying Lamborghini's, and then the Lamborghini's get stolen, and he's dating a Cavender twin, and then he's doing whatever he's doing to break. And all the headlines, all the noise after a It was a frustrating year last year. It's just like, of course, you went down to Miami, and of course, you're doing all this social media.

Stop. So I quit him. I gave myself a few months off Beck, but then two weeks before the season starts, I started getting reports that, Hey, this guy, he's at home. Players love him. He's there early in the morning, staying late. He's part of this grind. He's leading this grind, and he loves this system. He's decisive, getting the ball out. He's leaned up a little bit. He's moving around better. And I'm like, Yeah, we'll And then that first game against Notre Dame, I was like, everything they were saying is true. He looks like he loves the game again. He's playing light and free and easy. So I've been really encouraged because you got to remember, coming into last year, it was Beck as the number one prospect. I think when Thamble did that, that first one for game day, when he pulled all the scouts, he had the most votes. He was a top 10 pick. And so the talent's there. And now we're starting to see him play at that level again, which is fun to watch.

It's almost like you just laid out a sports movie.

Right?

He just let everything go to his head and just lost his mind. It's like an '80s sports football movie where the guy has to find himself. But He found himself in Miami, which is weird.

Yeah, he just found himself in an alley one morning and decided he's got to peel himself up and bring himself back. It's the comeback story.

Inspirational music for him? Yeah. All right. Then do we need to talk about the Baylor QB or the Penn State QB, or do you want to move to the NFL?

I like the Baylor quarterback. I think he's maybe... If he continues to play at this rate, it's awesome to see. The reason I love Sawyer Robertson so much is because I was at that Manning Passing Academy. I didn't know much about him. He was a transfer in. He's cousins with Jared Stidham. He's got a cool backstory, baseball player, all that. And then he comes out and we've got Sellers, and Clubnik, and Nussmaier, and all these great quarterbacks that are out, and they're doing okay in these drills. It's like Friday night lights. It's like the purest thing left in football. There's no cameras, there's no television there, there's no sponsorship. It's just guys out throwing at night. A beautiful night in Thibodeau, Louisiana. And this Robertson kid who's 6'4, 225, comes out and he nails this competition, all 12 throws or whatever it was. And he just walked back like, nothing to see here. And I was I got to pop in this guy's tape. And then he comes out and it's like 400 yards each game. And he's keeping this Baylor team in that's not very good in tough games. So I'm excited for him as probably a backup quarterback and all that.

But Drew Aller, to me, is the most confounding prospect. I get the National list and Bresto list, all the scouts put together. Nfl teams uses it as a resource. And talk to scouts. Everyone's got a first-round grade on him, it seems like. High grades. He's big, he's competitive. I like that he's strong, he sees the field, all those things. But he's not mobile, and he's slow with his feet. He doesn't win big games, and he's not accurate, Bill. There's some visualization thing with him. Receiver's running away from him. He doesn't trust his throws. And if you're not mobile and can't run around and you're not accurate, why are you a first-round prospect? Yeah, what's the last? You watch the game on Saturday night and text me. I want to get your opinion. When you watch Dante Moore in his first level up competition, and mind you, just nine starts going into Happy Valley, whiteout. But just watch him as a passer, and then watch Drew Aller as a passer, and let me know what you think.

Okay. So neck up scale, Nussmaill still winning.

Yeah, he is. But his tools aren't elite. I see it. He doesn't have the great arm and it doesn't have great size and all that stuff.

But neck up, he's the winner. Who's the neck up scale all-time winner? Is it braided?

Well, I mean, we didn't know that coming out.

Oh, true. So it has to be college only. So if anyone you've ever evaluated who wins the neck up award.

Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck. Yes. Neck up.

Smart enough to retire. That was like, he was neck up to the end.

Too smart.

Why am I doing this?

Too smart for the cold flight.

I made enough money. I'm done. All right. Nfl QB's. So Sal said something on the Ringer Gamble show on Wednesday that I really liked about these quarterbacks.

Sal's a trip, man.

He's always on one.

He's a trip.

He had his Cut the Shit QBs, where these QB's where you're just like, Cut the shit. Are you good or not? Can you just tell us one way or the other? Trevor Lawrence is obviously the number one of that. Of course. A lot of drops for him this year. A lot of stuff that wasn't his fault. I bet on them twice and probably going back for thirds this week. Inside the 10, your guard's up. You're waiting for something stupid to happen. Every once in a while, he'll just miss a guy completely. You're like, What just happened there? And then all of a sudden, he'll run like a gazelle. He'll nail somebody in stride. It would be fine if it was year two, but it's not.

What is it, year four, year five now?

It's year five. I think it's year four or year five. I think it's year five. Where are we, Trevor Lawrence?

I don't know. I know he's not what we thought he was coming out.

So you've given up on that version.

When you go through different coordinators, and obviously the Urban Meyer thing was a disaster. And so there was some recovery. And we saw some glimpsings and some flashes, and you thought, he's going to be okay with Doug Peterson.

This is year five, by the way.

Year five, okay. And I like Liam Cohn. I think he's going to get the most of them. I think he's I think at his best, he's a good quarterback who you can't trust to be consistent enough, and they're going to have to be great around them, even though usually that guy is like the game manager. He's just going to make some mistakes and miss some throws that you wouldn't expect, and he's going to create some plays and do some things. But I can't envision... Here's what I try to do sometimes with these guys. Envision a world with the quarterbacks that are in that league, where they go head to head and it's some shootout and the game's on the line the fourth quarter, where he outduels Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hertz, even, if they can get that off. Justin Herb or Joe Burrow when he's healthy. I just don't envision that world. So maybe he gets him to a 9, 10 win season playing really well if he goes on a run. But now we're in the playoffs, and I'm looking at a matchup between him and Burrow or him and Mahomes, him and even Herbert, who doesn't win the playoffs yet.

I don't know. It's hard to imagine he's ever going to take that next step.

It seemed like he was in a good spot with Brian Thomas, and then they get Hunter. They're like, Well, they got him the weapons. Thomas has been a mess this season. I don't know what's going on with that dude. What's up with that? Believe me, I've done a lot of research on it because he's on all of my fantasy teams, basically. It is one of those things where the Jaguar fans are mad. It's a whole thing. Then Hunter who they thought was going to be early '90s Deon, it just has not been the case early. That might have been too ambitious to begin with, but they give up a lot. Mason Graham is doing really well for the Cleveland Reels.

Really well, yeah.

They He got it out of that spot.

Now they got two first next year. Yes.

You could have just stayed at six and taken or set. I think it was five. But they were good. Tyler Warren was on there who ends up falling all the way to 14. Mason Graham was the easy pick. They're two good tackles, like Membo, who I think is the. Banks, I think, has been good with the Saints. There was a lot of good shit going on, and they trade everything to move up for Hunter, who doesn't seem like he has it yet. Anyway, it might have That might have been Lawrence's chance to have the right supporting cast. I'm not sure he has it. That'd be the only defense I could make up for him.

Yeah. It's just like there's too many excuses I feel like we've made. I'm right on the ledge, and I just I keep wanting to walk it back, but I don't know that I'm going to get to a point where I don't want to just jump off the Lawrence ledge.

No excuses for me. I'm long out. I've been out since last season. How do we explain C. J. Stroud?

I'm shocked by that. I mean, the offensive line is probably how we explain it.

It's a dumpster fire. It's a top four worst offensive line in either.

It's horrible. So it's hard when you have a quarterback who lives in the pocket and needs not a lot of time, but needs enough time It's frustrating to watch because we all saw the ability. It didn't take some super Scout to figure out how talented he was. But it's hard to watch because you know it's there. And I really like Ryan, Dimeco Ryan. I really like that organization, I think. But they can't get the off. And in the offseason, they just shipped off that offensive line. Like, not good enough. Let's start over. If you're in the O-line room, basically, get out of here. But now it's not any better. And so I have to believe that that's leading to a lot of the problems. I know he misses Tankdell a lot. You go back, I don't have the research in front of me. But if you go back, whether it was Jackson Smith and Jigba who had equal or better production than the star first-round wide receiver is Alabe and Garret, whether it was... Who was it? Was it Mekah Mbuka? It might have been who is just as productive or more productive than Marvin Harrison Jr.

He's a slot receiver guy. And so I think missing that type of guy at the slot, It hurts him a little bit, but I really do think it's the offensive line is at the crux of this.

We don't need to talk about Kyla Murray as a Cut the Shit guy because he's playing after we do this. But I gave up on him two years ago. On the flip side of a non-Cut the Shit guy, Herbert, who I've been probably more dubious of them because it always bothered me that the nerds were always so excited about him and always basically rating him by his potential instead of the results, which I've talked about a million times. I think he's been incredible this year. Does he seem any different to you or is the situation different? Or where is he right now in your eyes?

He seems different.

Okay.

That's how I feel as He does. And if I go back to that draft, was that the Burro, Tua?

It was Tua. Yeah, it was Herb versus Tua.

And for me, it was Jordan Love. I remember fighting with Kuyper. I'm like, Herb is the most talented. I'll give you that. But I also sat in a meeting at Oregon with Cristobal there, and it was the protection they had for him. I think it was me and McDonald. I've got to remember. It was either me, McDonald, and Spielman, Chris Spielman, or it might have been Levy and Greasy. I can't remember. But we sat in this meeting and all of a sudden, Justin Herb is a star, and they're undefeated, I think, at that time. And we're there to... It's a showcase game. And we're the number two crew. And there was a big SEC game that Herbie and Fowler had. And so we got this game, and Oregon is rolling. And he comes in, and he lets the offensive lineman talk for him. He sits in the back of the room.

Yeah.

And I've been doing that for eight, nine years at that point. And the quarterback comes in, and he goes, and you get to know him. And it always concerned me because it was so much talent. And then you blame Cristobal, and they were run first. And then he gets to the NFL and it's like, I just don't know if he's got that... You know that... Like, Brady's an all-time prick. So is Peyton Manning. So all these guys, you hear some of the real stories behind the scenes. It's not about the commercial in the front. They're brutal to be around. I just wondered if Herbert would ever be like that. And now I'm starting to see a little bit of prick in him, and it's good. I think Harbaugh has empowered him. I think Harbaugh, it's not necessarily the mechanics, the footwork, the scheme. For him, it's the way he... The confidence that you can't help but have when you walk out of a room. Harbaugh is crazy. I have so many But when you're in that fox hole with him, you'll go to war. And so I think- You want to feel like if he infected Herbert in a good way with some of that?

In a good way. Yeah, absolutely. I'm seeing a different guy and the way he's carrying himself on, off the field, all of it. So I'm hopeful for him, but I still like Jordan Love a little bit more coming out. We'll see how that all plays out. Interesting.

But now who would you rather have, Herbert or Jordan Love?

Early this season, Herbert. And it It takes a lot for me to say that up coming into this season, I was like, it took a few years, and I'm not fighting with Kiper anymore, but I wanted to jump into the screen and be like, Hey, Mel, what's up now?

Well, you had the neck up scale. I remember it was my podcast that Trent Dauphre came on 15 years ago and told the Mark Sanchez story. I forget what draft for all the QBs in that draft. And he was like, if you were going somewhere and you had your car keys on you and somebody was going to drive, you toss them to Sanchez. And that was his way of saying- That was Stafford's year. Was it Stafford's year? Yes. So he made the case like, Sanchez is a car keys guy. And I was always like, that's a different scale, I think, the car keys. So you're saying Herbert was low on the car keys? Yeah. In Oregon, you wouldn't have been like, here are the car keys.

He was sitting in the third row of the Lincoln Navigator. He was going to sit back there, but super talented. Always, yeah.

I got to say, I bet against them in week one and week three, and he just was just breaking hearts if you had the other side. But it got to the point, especially in the Denver game, where I started to feel like he was going to come back and make plays. That play he made, Denver was killing him that whole game. I mean, I think they had 29 pressures. That team was just good. Yeah, they were all over him. That last countdown he had was just an amazing play. I thought that was probably the best play of the season.

I never question his toughness. He takes hits and keeps coming back.

The other one we should talk about, who I guess isn't going to cut the shit guy anymore because he's had real playoff success. But I thought Goff was so good on Monday night. I don't know how bad Baltimore's defense is, but even that backbreaker throw he had to St. Brown on fourth and two, it was fucking perfect. And he was playing with so much confidence. I was really impressed.

I love seeing him do it without Ben Johnson because I think a lot of people, and myself included, question like, how much is this is manufactured? It fits perfectly. He's a play-action guy. The run sets, all those things. And to see him doing it now, and then the It was the first game where they came out and they struggled. It looked awful.

Yeah, it was Green Bay.

Green Bay, yes. And then to see, yeah, that was a blip. We're back to what we are. I really liked him in that draft, I had him as the first quarterback, but I always thought the ceiling was lower with him. To see where he is. Then when a guy like McVay, who I think we all have a ton of respect for, just discards him after having success and going to Super Bowl, it's like something's up here. To see him make that move and to pick himself up and to have the success he's had, I just pull for Goff, and I'm excited that he's doing what he's doing. But he He is significantly better now than he was as a prospect coming out, and he was in his early year or two.

Yeah, it's funny. I felt prey to their offensive line as in the same You can't lose coordinators like that. When I was thinking about them as a playoff team, how good are they going to be, completely missed it. I'm usually good at this specific stupid thing because this is- It's a very stupid- It's stupid. This is usually my domain.

It's my stupid niche.

But I totally miss them getting pissed off that everybody is like, Yeah, with Ben Johnson, your offense isn't going to be good anymore. I think that's a real fuel for them. I think they really took it personally in the offseason. And Dan Campbell, specifically, who that should have been easy to guess, but you could see it in Monday night with the way they played, how they finished the game, the stuff they said after. I just think they were like, fuck this. Ben Johnson was a good coordinator, but we're really good. It wasn't about our offensive coordinator. Fuck off. That's the energy they have. It's like a passion project for all of them.

For Campbell, Campbell getting involved in it, it's pretty wild to see.

Yeah, because they take after him and his mentality as great as the play calls were. But some of those The fourth and 2 is not an easy call there at midfield with a minute 50 left. You knew they were going to go for it, but it wasn't a no-brainer.

No, he's wild. He's crazy, but it works the vast majority of the time. He trusts his group and his group trusts him. It's pretty cool to watch. I don't know how many other guys in the NFL, if you were to draft head coaches with an organization, he'd be on the very short list, I think, truly.

I always rank when I do my little player rankings, I rank the coaches, and I downgraded them this year because they lost their... I had them above average, but not top 10.

I was worried. I was legitimately worried.

But I think this is a big, No, I'm really good.

And I know I'm getting older- Trust my infrastructure. When Kelvin Sheppard now... When I was like, Oh, he's a coordinator. He wasn't in my first two or three years of evaluating players. He was like, you're seven or eight. I'm like, now he's been in the league how many years coaching? It's wild to see, but it's pretty cool to see, too. A guy who you saw as a 19, 20-year-old kid trying to make to the NFL, and where he is. It's just wild.

That is one of the stages of getting older because one of the first eye-opening things is when somebody's son is playing in baseball and you're like, Oh, my God, Fernando Tatis Jr. But when it's a grandchild, that's when you're like, Just put me in a fucking home.

I know. I'm worried that that hasn't happened yet that I'm aware of, but I'm worried about that. What do you think about Jackson Dart? I want to get your opinion.

As you know, I eat up all the off-field, how the team feels like he leads in the locker room and him in the meetings and hard worker. He checks all those boxes, got the charisma. I thought they should have gone to him last week. I thought that was the perfect game. But I know Wilson had a big game against Dallas.

Yeah, you're coming off of that.

I get it, but when Wilson sucked in the first part of that game, they I brought Darden, I was like, I wonder if they'll just keep him out there. And it was like, they didn't have the balls to do it. This is the right time, though, because they have an easy game next week. So chargers will be hard.

But I think you had to do it. We set the over-under before the season started at week six. So it went under.

Interesting.

I had a fascinating conversation, and one has nothing to do with the other here. I had zero to do with Jackson Dard, Giants, Dable, all that. But I'll never forget, I'm in Mobile, Alabama. It's the first day. Practice hasn't even started yet. And we mentioned I were doing some interviews before with some general managers. And Dable comes in and grabs me and is like, Hey, I'm just getting caught up on the quarterbacks. The season just ended, and coaches then get involved in the process. He's like, What do you talk me through? And this is like a three, four-minute conversation. He said, Who do you like? I've never told this full story before. Oh, great. Who do you like? What do you think? And I went there. I was like, I don't know that Shador is the right fit for you? Kam Ward is probably going to be the first quarterback taken. I said, If I'm being honest, the guy I want to see with you, and I want you to have a chance to develop, is Jackson Dart. Jackson Dart was considered a second rounder coming in that week of this senior bowl. I was like, You're picking at five.

I'm like, So it's not going to be at five. But maybe he's there in this early second. I was like, Maybe you guys have to move up for him. It was just totally just spitballing, right? And he hadn't got... He just came off the East West Shrine game, and Shador was there, but Shador didn't play. And so he's like, All right. He's like, Good to know. And he just walked away. And then we went through this whole process, and then it was like, Jackson, They might like Jackson Dard a little. So it was cool to see that he thought the same thing of dart. And I'll never forget watching darts. It's 161 clip reel, where the PFF ultimate, where you marry it to our game tape, and you can break it up. Anyone throws from 10 to 20 yards, whatever you want. It's a versus pressure clip reel that I watch for all these top quarterbacks. Every year I do it. And the 161 plays for him is when I fell in love. And listen, he does not have a big time arm. And I think that's the thing that was lost in all. He can't drive it down the field like Josh Allen, like Mahomes, like some of those guys.

It's adequate, but he's got to be on time. But watching him in the pocket, as I'm watching Shador and Cam Ward, and they're bailing and drifting and extending and laxing. And then I watched DART every place, like urgency, climbing the pocket, sliding over, throwing down the field. And you know how Josh Allen, when you watch him, it's almost like the chaos calms him down.

Yeah.

That's how I felt. So I'm like, he's not as tall as Josh Allen. He's not as mobile. He certainly doesn't have the arm. And I'm hesitant to say it at the time, but I was like, screw it. He He reminds me so much of Josh Allen, not the physical traits, but the way he carries himself, the way he is with pressure around him. And so I'm excited. I know the team isn't very good. I know they're playing the charges week one, and maybe they can bounce back against the Saints with DART in his second start. But I'm excited to see what happens here because I think this is a marriage that is perfect for both of them.

You know what's funny? The Giants might not be that bad because that Chief's game, I was thinking, I wish I had talked about it more on Sunday that That defensive countdown that they should have had where the guy, Mahomes, stripped the guy back. But remember that?

That backward pass?

I do wonder what happens if that happened, if they get that play and they score combined with Wilson just completely shit in the bed. He was just awful. But they do have a pass rush. They do have a pass rush. Nabors is a problem.

And their receivers as a whole are not... They're better than what we've seen.

And Skatebu, I don't know. I I don't like him. I wish the Pats had taken him.

He's a maniac, man. I like him, too.

I can see in the Chargers 3-0, smoke blown up, Herbred MVP. They're six and a half point favorites on the road. Everyone's going to have them in a tease. To me, it is an all-time stay away. I would not bet on either team in this game. Who knows with DART? The crowd will be into it right away when it happens. All right, we got to do it. Actually, one more thing quick. I said before the year, I thought Alan was the best QB in the league, and people got mad at me.

Why are they getting mad at you?

Because of the Mahomes. I was like, I'm sorry. Alan is the best quarterback in the league right now. Alan is the best quarterback in football, and he was last year. I don't know why, just because Mahomes has the three titles, and he's still like, if I have a fourth quarter, he's still probably the guy if my life depended, I would probably take. But Josh Allen, week to week, for a season, right now, the player he is, I don't see how you could say he's not 1A and Lamar is 1B, but I would have him over Lamar.

But do you agree with that, though? I actually would, and I'd like to disagree with you. It would be more fun. I always try to, before, I try to ask myself, who do you want to face the least? Who's the biggest problem? And it was Mahomes for the longest time. And he'd be second on my list. But if you're asking, who's the guy that creates the most problems for me, if I'm a defensive coordinator, if I'm an opposing team, it's Alan. It's the physicality, it's the mobility, it's the driving the ball down the field, the amount of field you have to cover. And look at We all talk about the Chiefs and their lack of weapons and all that, but are the Bills that much better?

I mean, Curtis Samuel was a healthy scratch last week. I don't know. I think James Cook is really good. He's certainly better than anyone on the Chief's. But from a receiver standpoint- Receivers, I mean, yes. Yeah. I just think he's the hardest one to play, to back up your point. If it's third and five on the five-yard line, you have to be like, he's probably going to do a QB draw and we probably can't stop it. We're going to have to keep more people in.

And now he's got the sides open.

But maybe he won't. Yeah, but maybe he won't. Maybe he'll wait. Maybe he'll roll around. I just think he's hard to split. And then the other piece of that is, if you If you switched him with other people's situations, what would happen to that team? If you put him on Kansas City right now, I feel like he'd figure it out at least as good as Mahomes has tried to figure it out these last years. But I don't think Mahomes... To me, Mahomes could absolutely take it back. Worthy is coming back this week. Rice comes back, I think, week seven. There's a world where all of a sudden the chips are fun and explosive. But the reality is they haven't been fun and explosive in two years. They haven't been for a couple of... Yeah, more than two years now. Two plus years. I don't know. Okay, let's talk, Drake, man. Let's go. We'll end with the pats. We'll end with our guy, Drake. I thought the pats played really well last week, except for the five turnovers. In His first downs. They were in all the right spots. They dominated the game. I think they had 349 to 101 yards the last three quarters.

I have no idea how they lost the game. It was one of the stupidest losses in recent Patriots history, but I- Ball security, right? Yeah, Drake does one down play a half, right?

He does. You look at his passing efficiency. He's actually further along than I thought he would be as a passer. I even remember going like that Jets game live last year and watching before he got the head injury. And it's like, man, the way he's carrying himself and the mobility aspect, he's going to be just fine. I really like this is better than I thought in his rookie year. And then he has made a jump. And they don't have great supporting cast around him, but it's good enough. And you're seeing that he's going to keep getting... I think they're going to wind up being the most improved team in the National Football League, from what we saw week one against the Raiders to what we see in weeks 10 through 17.

I really do. So I agree with you, and I don't know if I'm being a homer, but I genuinely believe this team has the pieces to be a good team as the year goes along.

Yeah, a good team. Good team.

Not like, Could they sleep in nine and eight? Yeah.

Yeah, in the hunt at the end, but maybe they don't make it. Maybe they make it and they get knocked out. But I think this year is critical for May to continue on this trajectory and start cutting out the maybe five, six plays a game that he'd like to have back. Maybe cut that down to one or two. You said one turnover. But start chipping away at that a little bit because the good is really good, and their defense is significantly better than a year ago. I like this team, but I know what it is, but it's huge. This first year with Vrabel is huge that they progress. Then next year, I think with another offseason and with the draft and with a couple of moves, I think they could then be serious and someone you have to deal with.

Yeah, being one and two after three is tough because I don't think the Raiders are very good, but the Pats just gave up a bunch of big plays. Gonzales comes back this week, which I think people have underrated how important he is.

What did I read? I didn't actually... Albert Breer said something like, there wasn't a ham string or what's the buzz?

Oh, really?

Yeah, there was something. Look that up. There was something about where he's in- You think it was in the ham string or it moved to something. I don't know. I thought, yes, do some We'll have to both find that out after that.

That Albert Breer, always start in trouble. Jesus.

But he's good, man.

I think I could see... So we're aligned. I could see around week 10, week 11. I also think this team is going to have an upset over somebody at some point over the next four or five weeks. Because I do think they can rush a passer, they can move the ball. Some of the offensive stats are pretty good, like some of the advanced stats that really count the multiple turnovers per game.

That's the thing. When you take away that handful of plays every game, he's actually been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the National Football League this year, which is wild.

I just think once a game He's going to have a play where he's under siege and he tries to be hero and something dumb happens.

Josh Allen did want a lot of games doing that.

Josh Allen did that forever.

Forever. Until last year. Truly, until last year. Last year was the first year where he actually was like, Oh, he's protecting the football. He's not making those mistakes. So it might be three, four years down the road before he completely turns the corner on that.

The more frustrating one was having Boody in the corner and just not doing the little alley-oop lob pass to him. And it's an easy countdown. Instead, he's trying to fire it through somebody and it gets tipped. That's like three years from now, he's laughing that over. It's a countdown.

I hope people understand he is a pup. He has not played a ton of ball. You compare his starts come out of North Carolina and that system he was in to what Jaden Daniels had and what some of these other guys have had, Bo Nicks, certainly. He's learning on the job, which considering the results, pretty good.

Well, tell the freaking boss, the media that. I mean, I don't think- Really reprehensible. I was there last week. I mean, that...

Everyone just got so spoiled. Come on. Yes. And it's always been like, if it wasn't the Patriots, it was the Red Sox during our childhood. I mean, They'll run people out of town if they're not careful. That's the problem with people around here.

Why isn't he like Roman Anthony right away? Roman Anthony was immediately the best part of the Red Sox. Why isn't that Jake May?

Everyone should be.

Jake bang. Everyone's making excuses for them. They'll probably play this on one of the shows. Listen to these two shitheads making excuses for Jake May. Yeah, exactly.

No, I know. They'll do a whole segment on it. Yeah.

Jake May is good. Anyway. All right, McShay. So every Saturday, you do a live, you YouTube show with Mench for your podcast. Outside of doing the draft nationally at the site, it might be the most fun, my favorite project I've ever done is the Saturday Night Show.

We just stumbled upon it.

So you're coming on- We break into the late in the games. The Georgia game is going to be the one.

Georgia and Penn State, Oregon. So we'll break in with five, seven minutes left, and we'll just react. I'm looking at the big screen over here, and it's just a mess. And then we'll reset, and we'll do a recap of the whole day. And this week we've got like nine, 10 games. We got to recap. We'll probably be on two in the morning this week. So it'll be fun. Eastern time.

We love having you. It's great to see you.

It's been great, man. I love it here and I'm excited about what we're doing.

All right. Thanks, man. All right. We're going to talk NFL and Ryder Cup with our guy, Joe House. Ringer 107. We're five and 10 through three weeks. It's a bad start. I'm not scared. I'm not rattled. This is the first week I've actually liked this week for. Listen, it lit a fire under me. I got to be honest. I feel a little like the Atlanta Falcons after that Panthers 30 to nothing. Shut out. We've had bad luck. Our worst pick, actually, ironically, was the Falcons, which we had in a parlay, and they lost 30 to nothing to the worst team in the League, Carolina, we're about to talk about. But House, am I right to say week four looks delightful, looks enticing? It's the first time I feel like, Oh, okay. I feel like I have a handle. I like some of the matchups.

Let's Yeah, it does set up with some semblance of normalcy, I guess I'll say, because I think we've gotten the overreaction out of our system now.

And the end of reactions.

But you're both of those. The the overs and the unders. I mean, the Falcons fired their wide receiver coach, and they're working on better communication with Michael Penix. What are you and I going to do? Don't fire me. Who can we fire?

They also moved their OC from the booth down to the field, which is another one. Sometimes it's a move in the deck chairs in the Titanic situation. But even if you look at the stats from that game, it's hard. That did not seem like a 30 to nothing game if you just examine all of what happened. And Carolina is going to come up later because I still think they stink. And I'm willing to make our money back. Here are the stay aways for this week. I want to zoom through this a little bit because we got a lot of Ryder Cup to talk to. Ryder Cup on the East Coast. Great. I have a lot of thoughts. Stay aways. Rams, Colts. I'm staying away unless you like it. I don't know what to make of this Colts team. They feel like the Rabbit team this year. It's Rams, three and a half at home. I don't like the line. If it was Rams, two and a half, I'd be intrigued three and a half a minute.

Sure. It's a fair number. We are going to, I think, transact on another team involved in next week's Thursday night game, which is, to me, the most compelling reason to stay away from this Rams Colts game. The Rams go from this game to Thursday night hosting the San Francisco 49ers. So short work week for both the Rams and the 49ers, and that's a crucial matchup for those teams. So I like the idea of staying away. I think it's a fair number. Three and a half seems fine with me. Good test for the Colts. This is a good referendum on who these Colts are.

House, remember when we took the Niners Ringer 107 minus two and a half. And then Mac Jones, they were driving and it seemed like we had it.

It was minus one and a half.

Minus one and a half.

It was minus one and a half.

And then Mac Jones threw a terrible pick, and then they'd scored. And then he took a safety in the end zone, they're down, too. And then Mac Jones then drove them down so they could win by one, and we didn't win.

We'll have a chance to talk about the Niners in context, but they have still abominable special teams. That safety by Mac Jones was a special team's safety because the dumb ass punt return guy field the punt at the goddamn two-yard line.

It's like a 65-yard punt. He's like, Let me get field position right here.

All right. Just get out of the way. Just let the ball bounce in the end zone, dopey.

Next day away is Bill Saintz, which is over two touch downs. It'll probably land, who knows, somewhere in the 16 to 17 range. The Saint's offense is just decent enough That there's backdoor stuff. You look at the advanced stats, they're not reprehensible. They can move the ball. If it's like 31 to 10, they could get one laid up. It's a stay away.

If you had come in on fire for the Saintz, I would have gone along with it. I don't hate this spot for them. I'm not going to do that. I'm not going to bet on them, but I don't hate the spot.

Dolphins Jets, a complete stay away. There's a mild case for the Jets just because they really could be two and one. But there's also a mild case for the Dolphins because they're 0-3, and if they're ever going to win a game, this would be it. And they showed some fight, and they're on 10 days rest. I don't want to find out. Justin Field, the first tua. It's a no thanks across the board.

That's fine. That's a fine Monday night game. Just sit back and enjoy. Don't have anything on it.

And then last but not least, the Broncos laying seven and a half to Cincinnati. And Bo Nicks has just been awful. He's cost us money. He's made me scared for my futures. Pff ranked him, I think, the 35th out of 36 quarterbacks who have played football this year.

Not good.

I really want to put them in a parlay or talk you into some tease on Sunday, and I'm I can't until we see Bo Nicks have three hours that look half decent. So we're going to stay away from that.

I have put the Broncos in a tease, but no way I'm laying seven and a half. That's a preposterous number, even though the bangles really bangled the hell out that Vikings game. I mean, they just bangled that game.

A guy in the Viking scored two touch downs who wasn't on offense.

True story. He did that. He was a defensive guy.

He had two touch downs. If you had him in fantasy, it would have been a huge day. All right, two games that I think are stay aways, but I'll let you, if you got super excited about it, I'm willing to have the combo. Eagles minus three and a half over the Bucks. It's in Tampa. No Mike Evans for Tampa. It's time for his annual ham string injury.

Yeah.

It's like we have Halloween on October 31st. We have Thanksgiving. We have Mike Evans with a ham string. No Godwin, probably. Worfs might play. I just want to stay away unless there's something you'd like here. No.

If the Tampa Bay Bucaneers had better health in any of those areas, I mean, Baker continues to be banged up and always halfway through each game, we see him with a limp. If they had just a tiny bit better health luck, I would be all over the box. They have been tremendous in this spot against the Eagles year over year. Ask any Eagles fan. Tampa plays them super tough. They always, for whatever reason, because of the way the schedules turn out in the way that Tampa and the Eagles have fared well in their divisions.

It feels like they play a lot. It's almost like they're... Yeah.

That's right. It's a stay away. I agree with you.

I was doing a bunch of homework trying to get our mojo back this week, and I was assigning team's records, not win-loss records, but actual win, actual loss, and then just the number next to it, which meant it's an either-or game.

Sure.

Tampa's actual record is zero, zero, and three. Sure. They haven't got a convincing win yet.

There is some stat out there, like the first team in modern history to win on the last drive or second to last drive, some crazy number like that.

And Philly is two on one. All right, we're staying away from that. I don't want to stay away from Chiefs Ravens.

I don't want to bet on it.

But I also don't want to bet on it. Chiefs plus two and a half at home against the Ravens.

What's your lean on that? I'm interested in your lean.

My lean is the Chiefs. They're begging you to take the Chiefs. I think that Ravens run defense. It's just going to be bad for the whole year.

So you're right, but who the hell runs the football Well, that's part of the chiefs, right?

And then from an explosive play standpoint, it just feels like Baltimore can at least put up points against anybody, and they're going to be in the 25 to 30 range just because that seems to be what they do. And then can the chiefs get there? Casey is just mediocre in every single offensive category. Give me anything. Give me yards per play. But what's weird is I think they still have the eighth ranked offense by EPA, and then every other stat is in the middle. Give me Primers defense, 30th rush, 31st pass, 25th yards per pass, 30th first down. They're both one and two. Obviously, one of these teams are going to be one and three. My lean is the Chiefs, and I feel like on Sunday, I'm going to talk myself into a tease with them getting eight and a half is where this is going to land.

I actually like that. Let's compare notes on Sunday. The thing with the Ravens defense is they cannot put pressure on anybody because the injuries to Van Nooy and Matabuuké up the middle. And we saw that. We saw Jared Goff just enjoying the comfort and peace of a quiet pocket. And he absolutely picked that Ravens defense apart. I think ultimately that Ravens defense will be fine. And we went through a version of this last year if they can get the restored health. But I think at this stage of the season, it makes sense to stay away. Let's just enjoy the game.

One thing I was thinking with that. So the Ravens Ravens defense died in that Bills game in the second half, right? And it died in the second half of that lions game. And I was wondering if there was a cousin south special, maybe looming.

Well, the problem is the Lyons won the first half and one, was it tied or they were up at the half?

No, I'm saying for this week. Oh, okay. Like the Ravens take a lead and then the Chiefs come back. So Ravens would first half, chiefs, second half.

It fits every character of these two teams, the idea of these two teams over the years. The Ravens are historically great in the first half of games. And the Chiefs have been a second half dynamo. Just like, that's the Patrick Mahomes story. So if you want to do that, I'm not against it.

When I The thing I like about this house, if you're going to take the Chiefs, is the Ravens could go one and three, and then immediately Texans home, Rams home, Bayou week, bears home, at Dolphins, at Vikings, at Browns, home Jets, home bangles, home Stealers, at bangles. Pats, at Green Bay Week 17. This might be the last game they lose for three months.

And we've seen them do this.

We've seen them do this.

They were eight and five last year, and then they didn't lose any more games. Just finished out the season with a nice run.

Slightly in Chiefs. I I still wonder the Giants might be a little better than maybe we think. And maybe that's why the Chiefs, even though it was a little ugly last year, they still did win 22 to none. But I just feel like after this game, we're going to be like, Oh, okay. And we'll know a little more. I'm leaning Chiefs.

You know that Baltimore to win the first half, Kansas City to win the game?

What is it?

Plus 850. It would be worth a couple of dollars.

It might do a sprinkling. Okay. The possibles. Packers at Dallas, minus six and a half, the money line could go in any part that we want to Green Bay is a little banged up. Detroit's defense might be the worst defense in the league. I'm sorry, Dallas's defense. It's in the running for worst defense. And then Green Bay's offensive stats, even after that weird Browns game, When they went against that juggernaut, they're still seventh pass, third run, second yards per play. And it just feels like they're going to light them up, the Parsons thing. And yet something scares me about this straight up. So we'll have to talk parlay in it. No CeeD Ceevee Lamb. Dallas looked dead after CeeD Lamb. It just seemed like they had no chance whatsoever. There's no case for Dallas, in my opinion. But I didn't like how the packers looked last week either.

That's the only thing that is worrisome is that there's no case for Dallas. And I can't imagine anybody out there betting on Dallas. When we sit down and wake up, I mean, when we wake up Sunday morning, the splits are going to be like 85 % of the tickets on the packers. And this number is just held tight at six and a half, like no movement at all. It's six and a half.

I mean, everyone got excited about Caleb last week, and rightfully so, he made some good throws. But then if you watch the highlights, these guys are wide open. They're open by five, six, seven yards every pass.

He had hours to throw.

And he had hours to throw.

That is by far the most comfortable he's been as a professional in terms of dropping back.

Okay. Starting to get a little more serious here. Texans, Titans. Texans minus seven and a half. Only as a parlay here. It's a kitchen sink game for them. They're 0-3. Season might be over anyway, but in the AFC South, who knows? And they're playing this Tennessee team. Pick a stat on offense, their 32nd. Just name a stat. I'll be like, Oh, no. Actually, they're only 30th in that one. They stink. And the Callahan tire fires, which you nicknamed them Dumbo two weeks ago. So it could be the last one for him. Houston's defense is probably at least a top 10 defense. Gave up 14 to the Rams, 20 to the Bucks, 19 to the Jacks.

They're good. It's a good defense. So nothing wrong with the Houston defense.

This is a How many points are they going to score a game for Tennessee?

Yeah. So I don't want to mess with the number. Let's just take the Texans on the money line and put them in a parlay. They're one leg. I like that leg quite a bit.

Browns-lions, Browns getting nine and a Half. And I would be all over this, except their left tackle, Dawan Jones is out, and their right tackle, Conklin is questionable, and they can't really score to begin with. But man, the defensive stats for them, what they did to Green Bay last week and That's what they've been doing in general. They're first in rush, fourth in pass, first in yards per play, third in sacks, first and first down. Baltimore ended up with 41 on them, but that was a weird game. It wasn't a 41-point offensive game. And then Detroit has a really good offense, too. But Detroit coming off Monday night, just everybody blowing smoke and Dan Campbell proving that it wasn't all about Ben Johnson. They just have this awesome win, and it has all the makings of a stay away, and that's what I think we should do.

Yeah, I don't disagree. I think the number is crazy. Nine and a half is an insane number.

It's too high.

It's way too high. I agree. Yes, exactly. Three full points, too high. You cannot say enough about this Cleveland-Browns defense. You got to give it up to Jim Schwartz They had the person. They figured out what they did wrong last year. And the pass rush is back, and it's ferocious. They have played Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love, and they get pressure on all those dudes. The only reason why we're not going to fire on this is because we can't bet on Joe Flacko on the road, I don't think, to get any points.

I like Judkins, too.

Me, too. And they established the run pretty effectively. But that's the injury to the offensive lineman is a bummer in that respect.

They made a great trade. The Travis Hunter trade was awesome, and they ended up with Graham, who, I don't know, their front four is just really good. I was really, really impressed by them in that Green Bay game because we had... I can't remember how I bet Green Bay, but I was nervous in the second quarter because it was clear their defense was disrupting everything Green Bay wanted to do. Giants Chargers is another one that looks like a let's be careful out there. Giants, six and a half point underdogs at home. Jackson Dard starting, Andrew Thomas back in at left tackle. And that Chargers O-line, no Slater who's out all year, but then Becton looks like he's out. Their center, Bozeman might be out. They're riding high off these three wins and a lot of Herbert love. But I thought they had a ton of trouble protecting Herbert last week. And this Giants defense, if the crowd's fired up about dart. This feels upset-ish to me. The Giants defense is 28th past 31st rush, and the chargers are second in pass. But yet their offensive line worries me. It feels like a stay away, but I do like the Giants.

I don't want to bet on a rookie quarterback in his first start.

That's why we're not doing it. Because we're five and 10. We can't do a rookie QB.

I mean, Harbaugh is 4 and 0 against the spread against rookie quarterbacks. Just throw a stat at me? Yeah. Well, because I was considering, do we do something with the chargers? I did the teaser that America should not do, which is the chargers down to one and a half and the Green Bay packers down to one and a half. Oh, no house. I did it. Oh, Jesus. Or a half, whatever it is. I did that. I did that. I told America not to do that on Wednesday's show just because I did it. That was my public service announcement to everybody. Do not tease the chargers and the Green Bay packers together. Don't do it.

That was like the bad idea jeans commercial. That tease.

I agree.

She asked me, Have an unprotected sex. And I said, When's the next time if I'm going to be in Haiti? Remember that commercial? It was one of the classics.

Bad idea jeans.

I think that tease is a bad idea. Okay, the likelies. I have five. Tell me, I'll just say what they are, and then we can go to them. Raiders, bears, jags-niner, falcons, Washington, Viking, stealers, pats, panthers. Is there anything we don't have out of those five that you liked?

No. So when you sent me the note, some people accuse us of being, I'm too agreeable. But the whole point of this is us collaborating and trying to find games that work.

We're talking about beforehand.

We're trying. You're too agreeable.

The fuck?

I We argue all the time. I did talk you out of week one, the Seattle Seahawks against the 49ers. You had that on the list.

The problem is we've been agreeing on bad pics. We're five and 10.

Bad pics. We're bad at this.

I almost want to I'm going to tee a four and one this week, but I'm not going to put that change.

Don't do that. I just want to say I have hit my same game parlay each of the first three weeks on the Sunday pregame show, and I am two and one on the Sunday pregame show with my best bet. Good.

We'll bring some of that magic here for you guys.

I'm trying. Let's see. Here I am.

Raiders, bears. Raiders by one and a half. Bares coming off, we looked way too good last week game. Raiders coming off, we didn't look good at all game. So there's a double zag that I like. It's a loser leaves town match. I think if either of these teams lose, I find it hard to believe they're going to make the playoffs. The Raiders going one and three. They're going to go eight and five down the stretch. They're just going to be two up and down. They're pretty healthy, though. And apparently, Bauer is fine. I didn't love the way he looked.

He didn't look good against Washington.

The bears had this miracle game where they play this really limited Dallas team, and Lamb gets hurt in the first quarter. So it's not like... I think that could have been a shootout, and it just got taken off the table. They have a bunch of secondary injuries, and all the defensive stats for them are really bad, including their last in the league in yards per play allowed. And Vegas' offense, I don't know.

So put a pin in this one because I'm not all the way there yet. And the reason I'm not all the way there yet is because we had two consecutive crappy Geno games. Now, we anticipated that they were going to have, I did at least, I said on this show and other shows that I thought that it was a bad spot for the Raiders coming off of that Monday night football game against the Chargers in the previous week. Just a tough spot for them coming east out here for a one o'clock game. The compelling reason to invest in the Raiders here is because he's back home in that dome. His splits in a dome are so much better. And they are showing something in terms of offensive potency. That guy, Tucker, was unstoppable. He had two giant plays.

Listen, this is pro-sports. You have a shitty week. You recommit during the week in practice. We got to get it. And this is why we do this with the season. We go down, we go up. This feels like a bear's come back down, raiders go back up. I like the price. I think this line should be two and a half. Okay. I don't know. How do the The bears only... How is this in the tic-tac zone? The bears fucking suck on defense. And they're on the road. Why do we think they're... So anyway, I feel like we're getting a free point. And if the Raiders lose this game, their season's over. Next one, feel more strongly about this one. Jags plus three and a half against San Francisco. No Bosa, no Kittle. Pierre Saul and Jennings, questionable. The Niners have had just a slew of injuries already. We're either going to have a Mac Jones with a sprained PCL or a slightly injured, Brock Purdy at starting QB. Scary special teams, as always for San Francisco. The cousin and I talked about this on Sunday. I like how Jacksonville looks. I think their defense, I think they have a pass rush.

I think they're causing turnovers. They're doing shit.

You are correct.

And offensively, plays are there. Guys are open. They're just not... The stupid shit's happening with them. But they remind me a little of the paths where you can see the potential of what's there. I just think I like the Jags. I got to be honest. I mean, just in general, not even this game. I just like them.

Yeah, I agree with you. I like the spot, and I like the number, and I like the Jags to win this game outright. Because I think the Niners, this is the angle that I'm particularly invested in, is them looking at their division game on Thursday against the Rams and saying, Look, we have to come into that Thursday night game as healthy as possible. And so if Purdy, in any way, shape, or form, shows distress or he's not moving well, get him out. It just doesn't make any sense to to rush him in and push this one all the way through. And you hit on the key. I think on both sides of the ball, Jacksonville has a spine. They have an identity. The thing that they keep doing is self-sabotaging. They need their goddamn receivers to catch the goddamn balls when Trevor Lawrence hits them in the hands, and Trevor Lawrence needs to do better in hitting them in the hands. His accuracy is still in the bottom third of the league, but they lead the league in terms of drops, drop percentage and so forth. How about this?

They should be three and a half. They beat the Panthers. They completely gave away that Bangles game that they should have won. And I don't know how they didn't win. And then they beat the Texans last week. But I really like that one. I think the line's too high, too. I think it should be one and a half or two and a half.

Yeah, we're in agreement. The only thing you would say we worry about is, are Jacksonsville's defense numbers somewhat illusory because they've played offenses that that are not top-notch?

Panthers, Joe Burrow getting hurt. C. J. Stroud and whatever, and a team with a terrible offensive line. All right, next one. Falcons, Washington. Falcons plus one and a half. Atlanta coming off a horrible loss and Washington Coming off an easy win. The big thing here is your team is just banged up. No McLaren, it looks like. You have a bunch of defensive injuries. Daniels might play, might not play. Ekwer is already gone. You have a bunch of just no-name receiver. I mean, running backs. The Atlanta D, the stats are pretty... With three games is like enough of a sample size. The stats are pretty good with them. They're first against the pass, fourth yards per play, second, first down is allowed. I think there's something there with them. The question for me is, why did it look like you guys had never had a practice on offense last week? And did you fix that? I'm going to bet on the talent. I think they can win the game, all right.

Well, the difference is Pennex on the road versus Pennex at home and all the communications issues, all of the things that we cited at the top of the show about things that Atlanta did to figure out how to make the communication work better, bringing the coach down, the offensive coordinator down to the field, fire the wide receiver's coach. We got to get the plays in quicker. We have to have Pennex. All of that should work better at home. And they have shown us a class, what they did going into Minnesota and being able to establish the run. And they They just ran the ball with the two-headed monster of Algier and Béjane Robinson. And they got to get Pennex throwing the ball to those receivers in the end zone. I think they're committed to it. This is the game in which they're going to possibly have some success. It hurts my feelings to go against Washington. But man, that secondary is so depleted across the board. So the spot is correct for Atlanta.

And that's counting Lattemar, who's still playing. Oh, my God.

Fake thugs. Fake thug.

Falcons have the Bucks beat. This is one of our Ringer 107 losses, and they fucking blow it down the stretch. That was week one.

Multiple ways. They blew it multiple ways.

Week two, they spank the Vikings.

Spank them.

Week three, really stupid Panthers game. They fall behind seven-nothing. They just stopped running the ball. I don't know what they were doing. And I think they bounced back. I really like the Falcons plus one and a half. Let's go to Ireland.

There's a nice angle there also for teams that get blown out by 30 or more. Oh, yeah. I saw that. They cover nearly 70 % of the time in the next game.

How about this angle? Conspiracy Bill, looking at week six, Bills, Monday Night Football. So Atlanta plays the Commanders, and then there's a week five by, and then the Bills. I think the league wants the Falcons to be two and two heading in that It's a little more fun. Coming off a win. Okay, fine. Maybe get some calls.

That's fine.

Viking Stealers in Ireland. It frightens me how much I like the Vikings in this game because their quarterback is going to be Carson Wents. But I love the Vikings. And I think part of it is because I watch that entire Stealers Pats game every play, and I just do not think the Stealers are good. And I can't believe the Pats lost that game. I cannot get over it.

I started I started preparing myself after I listened to you and cousin Sal on Sunday night. For this week? Yes. It violates all your rules. It's a Sunday morning game. It's the first game in Europe.

One of my first rules is don't bet on this game. Do not bet on the game when you wake up and an hour has already gone by and you're down to nothing.

And then there's a Carson Wents rule. I mean, there's some amazing rules that we are going to violate because I think that the template that they showed us last week against the Bengals is eminently repeatable against Pittsburgh. Super repeatable template. That defense, blitzing Aaron Rodgers into oblivion. He is the worst quarterback in the NFL under pressure. His completion rate, his accuracy, everything goes down. He is immobile, and they do not have any safety valves on that offense to let him get the ball out and protect him. They're cooked. I like the Vikings.

I said to Sal last week, I really only feel like Rodgers can do two things anymore. Gets the snap, quick throw, like bubble screen or right over the... And he has that, and he has that three steps back, quick throw, back shoulder play, and nothing else. I just didn't see one other thing that he could do. Here's the other thing. Minnesota's run defense isn't good. Which might be a problem certain weeks. It was a problem against Atlanta. It's not going to be a problem against Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh's running game is bad.

Bad.

Roger's bad against pressure. Minnesota loves pressure. Pittsburgh should be 0-3. They should have lost the Jets game, and they should have lost the Patriots game. And I just don't think they're good. Here's another thing. Jordan Addison back from Minnesota.

Yeah, I love that.

This happens right around week three, week four, week five. Guys pop back in and you forget. It's like, oh, your left tackle who is suspended for steroids. Now he's back. I forgot. Addison being back for them is a big deal because now you can actually throw the ball in Pittsburgh, which the Pats did. Pats had 26 first downs in that game.

Let me just say this out loud so that we're acknowledging it.

When we wake up- It's Carson Wents as the quarterback of the Vikings.

We wake up Sunday morning.

And he's playing at 6: 30 in the morning Pacific Time.

We wake up in the morning, we turn the game on, and Pittsburgh is up 17 to three. And you're like, What the fuck is going on here?

Listen, that's why I'm going to wake up at 6: 00 in the morning, so I don't have to have that experience. I want to watch every play live. All bets are off in Ireland. You just never know.

The other thing, I mean, Pittsburgh's defense, super gettable. I mean, I'm not saying that Wentz is the guy that's going to get them, but I do like Jordan Mason. I like what he showed us. And he didn't have to play the fourth quarter against the bangles.

Hyisman still after the Stewards. Another angle I like, Craig Horbeck and the fantasy football guys are going to be there. Craig, big Stewards fan, about to shed some Irish tears watching Aaron Rodgers backpedaling He's going to be in for his life for three hours.

He can drown those tears in a delicious Guinness and a Jamieson. That's what I recommend. Jamieson and a little Jamieson and then a little Guinness.

Last one, Pats minus five and a half or minus 250 against the Panthers. There's Just abysmal stats for the Panthers here about dogs after a money line win the next week is really bad. Panthers hurt on the offensive line. González is going to be back for the Patriots on defense. Carolina's offense, 30th yards per play. Their defense, 32nd in sacks, 32nd in QB hits, 32nd in hurries, and 31st in tackles. Oh, that sounds wonderful. The Pat's offense, eighth and first downs, seven passing.

They moved the ball up and down the goddamn football field against the Steelers. Here's the thing. Let me just say this also. Another thing I'm going to say out loud for us to hear. We're not going to be pussies. We're going to lay the fucking number. We're going to go ahead and lay the five and a half. We're going to do it. We're grown as We're trying to win picks on this show. The number is five and a half. It's, to me, a little light. If it was seven, I might tap the brakes. But there's nothing instructive about the way that Carolina handled Atlanta. There are no takeaways from that game that inform what's going to happen in this game. The inside rush ability. The Patriots have a pass rush. It is a good pass rush. Barmore and Milton. What's Milton's last name? Millon Williams. Millon Williams.

Were you just about to Doris Berkman call him Mr. Milton?

I got that close. I got that close. I love that idea of them getting Bryce Young off his spot, get that man moving, and then When good things happen in terms of turnovers, I want to go ahead and lay the five and a half.

If they can't win by seven against this Panthers team, this season is going to be awful. But I really think the Pats... I had McShea on before you. Mcshea was saying the same thing. He thinks the Pats by week 10, week 11, there's going to be something there. I really think there's something here with the Pats, and I thought they should have won last week.

The other thing is, to that point, the handicap for last week was correct. It was a good handicap on the Patriots. They just turned the fucking ball over five times. Let's just not do that this week.

We fumbled on the goal line and we threw a goal line-tipped pick.

Let's not do that.

All right, So it sounds like we have five picks that we like. No parlays this week for us? We're just doing five straightups? Because the fifth one right now would be Raiders, Bears. And we could run from that one and do Yeah, that's the one we put a pin in.

I'd rather just do a money line parlay.

Okay. So you want to do a packers-Texans money lines parlay?

That's the one. Let's go to Texas, where the Texans are sending Callahan home. Tommy boy Callahan.

All right. Well, you know what? Let's take a break. We're figuring what we do. We'll come back. We'll do our Ringer 107 pics, and then you're going to break down the Ryder Cup for us and tell us how to win money in better against our country. And now it's time for a special part of today's episode. It's brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. Two things I really like. If you're an NFL fan, considering your new cable contract, you're basically an unrestricted free agent. Trading that contract for NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV, the best possible trade you can make during the offseason. If you're a new user, ready to make that move. Here's why I think you should do it. First of all, Sunday Ticket, as you know, I love it. But when you get YouTube TV, you also get whatever your local games are for the multi-view, which is huge, which I didn't realize during the old days when I didn't have YouTube TV and you couldn't put the chargers or RAM games here in LA into the multi-view. Now I can. But YouTube TV is great. It records basically everything.

You could just say, record Celtics, and the Celtic games, if they're on YouTube TV, they'll just record for you. It's like the greatest DVR of all time. If you are a fan free agent, NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube TV, that's the contract you should sign. Get every game every Sunday on one place. It's a no brainer. Right now, you can get NFL Sunday ticket month to month and cancel anytime. Try it out. Go to youtube. Com/bs to sign up now, Local and national games on YouTube TV. Nfl Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital on the games. Base plan required renews every month during the 2025 regular season only. Your membership for the following month can be canceled at any time before your renewal date. Terms, restrictions, and embargoes apply Commercial use excluded. No refunds. Today's Ringer 107 is brought to you by Fandil and Holy Macro. House and I, we just did a 25-minute break. Poor Gahao and poor Eduardo were just sitting there pouring gasoline on themselves like the people on an airplane. As we just debated, trying to figure out odds, trying to figure out what our parlay was going to be.

And I think we ended up in the right place because we had to obey House's edict that we had to be men, put chest hair on our chest, for me to act like a guy whose birthday it is and just get on the path straight up. Happy birthday to you. Thank you. Just to go path straight up minus five and a half. Here we go. The Ringer 107 for week 4. We are 5 and 10. Hopefully, we're 10 and 10 after these five picks. We decided not to do the Raiders' Bears. We talked about a lot. If we were 10 and 5, I would bet on Gino Smith, but we're 5 and 10, so we can't. So we are going to bet on the Jags. Plus three and a half against the very, very, very banged up San Francisco 49ers. Both House and I like the Jags, just in general. We're not going to apologize either. We think they're pretty talented, correct?

They are talented. They have to stop self-sabotaging.

Well, we're taking the Falcons plus one and a half against your beloved Washington Seawards, and we're doing it because we're five and 10. And if we have to bet against one of our favorite teams, we're going to do that. Not a great spot for your team.

Speaking of self-sabotage, yes.

We like the Falcons with the bounce back. We're going to Ireland for a 6: 30 PT start. Viking Stealers. Both of us absolutely love the Vikings minus one and a half.

This is a rule breaker special. We are breaking the rules.

We're breaking the rules of don't bet on this game ever. Don't bet on a game that starts before 10: 00 AM on a Sunday. And don't bet on a game with a bunch of drunk Irish people.

Don't bet on Carson Went.

I'm 25% Irish. Don't bet on Carson It's another rule we're breaking. But bet against Aaron Rodgers and bet against a fraudulent Stealers team are two really good rules. So we're taking the Vikings minus one and a half. We're going to bet the Patriots straight up minus five and a half at home against Carolina Panthers. We think the Pats are better than the record. I think the Panthers are probably a little worse than their record.

Well, they've only won one game.

Yeah, they're one and two, and they should be minus one and four. We're going to take the Pats straight up. And then this is what we debated. We threw in a bunch of people in this. We really wanted to put the packers in a parlay.

We did. We tried so hard.

We wanted to figure out a packers-Texans parlay. But the minus 120 rule for Ringer 107, the bet has to be minus 120 or better from an odd standpoint, and we just couldn't make it work. We turned to our old friend, Patrick Mahomes, and the Kansas City Chiefs.

We're going to do this.

We are doing the packers minus two and a half against Dallas, a team that will not have CeeD Lamb, that will be going against Michael Parsons, and we do not think they're going to be able to move the ball that well. And we expect a Green Bay bounce back, so minus two and a half. And we're putting them with the Chief's alt line on Fando plus seven and a half. Close Chief's Ravens game. I I'd like to talk you into it. Something scared you? Is it the Ravens offense scared you? What scared you?

That's literally it. The Ravens offense is incredible. Speaking of self-sabotage, if Derek Henry stops fumbling at crucial moments of the game when they're driving to go up by by significant margin. I was hoping that we could figure out a way to get the Chiefs by eight and a half, but seven and a half is satisfactory because the Chiefs at home don't lose by margin.

Xavier worthy back.

Yes.

I mean, really, the Chiefs are going to get blown out by double digits at home and go one and three to start the season?

I don't think so.

Ravens defense is bad. The Chiefs should be able to run the ball, some Pacheco. I feel okay this house. Those are Ringer 107 picks. I hope we turn it around. Today's Ringer 107 brought to you by Fandil, subject to change. Okay, let's talk about something you are passionate about, the Ryder Cup. You've been just putting more and more money On the other team that's not America. Over and over again, you bet as the foreigners keep winning PGA tournaments, and you would just sprinkle more and more Ryder Cup money in them. But now you're going to the Ryder Cup with our buddy Nathan Hubbard, and you're going to root for America. Do people know you're a turncoat? What's the deal?

Well, I've been public about the fact that as a rational better, when I'm trying to help all of the Birdie Buddies out there, put a little bit of green US dollars in their pockets, the rational bet is on Europe. And Europe at the moment is getting on the FanDuel sportsbook. Let's see.

I think they're plus one.

Plus one-sixty, right? Plus 170, right? And the US is minus one-fifty.

So your take is you feel like this is basically 50/50.

That is my take.

That's exactly right. The foreign side, the bad guys, are plus 170 in a 50/50 matchup where they have a more experienced team. You pointed out on the Ringer Gamble show yesterday, it's basically the exact same team as they had in the last Ryder Cup, except for a twin brother switch.

If you took the picture of 2023 in the picture of this year, it looks the same. Same team.

It's like The thing is different. I want to explain on a point you guys made that I thought, I've been thinking the same thing because this is such a hard ticket to get and it's so expensive. And everybody is like, Ryder Cup in New York, this is going to be crazy. And it's like, is it? Is it going to be crazy? Because do you see the US Open tennis crowd?

Yes. Yes, I did.

Similar, you really need connections and some money to get here. And, oh, what's that drink they have at the US Open, the Honey Glaze or whatever it's called.

Yeah, that's right. It's like with honey to melon. It's like, 38 dollars. Right, yeah, 38 dollar drink.

You should get an overpriced sandwich from David Chang. Just kidding, Chang. I just wanted to make sure he's listening. Why are you firing shots of Chang? I just wanted to make sure he's listening. Overpriced short rib sandwich from Chang. Thirty-nine dollars. But anyway, that's just kidding, Chang. That's going to be the vibe at this thing, right? Are normal people going to be at this?

There will be some folks, and they did offer up a set of tickets, but the early movers and the bulk of it, I think, was folks moving in on expensive ticket packages.

It's all people like Vino from CAA. He'll be there wearing a vest.

I'm speaking up. Where's my hat? There we go. I have my Vino. Yeah, there we go.

Yeah. He'll be there with some snazzy vest, shaking hands. But it's going to be a lot of that. It's going to be a lot of people that we know Poor Vino. Guess what? People like us don't make a lot of noise at golf tournaments.

It depends on how many things we have.

Yeah, we share, but we're not like... You want people like the Jaybugs circa 1995 at this thing.

That's what you need.

You want like hard core people in their 20s who are like, I'm going to fuck with that. That fucking guy from Germany. I'm going to fuck with that guy.

Or the Thierryl Hatton, right? Tiero, you piece of shit.

Fuck you. All right. So give us some bets that we should do this weekend with the Well, in the first place, yes, the Europe price remains attractive at plus 170.

They announced the first four matches tomorrow morning. It's an alternate shot.

It's going to pour It's going to rain tomorrow morning.

So it's like, isn't it now? I don't know. We're going to see the weather forecast is iffy indeed. It rained today out there. The four matchups are The lead-off is Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas. So we're going to be coming out with bangers up against John Rahm and Tyrell Hatton, speaking of. And the line on that match is Rahm and Hatton plus a hundred, so even money. And DeChambeau and Thomas are plus 130. I love the Rahm-Hatton combo.

And that's one of our best duos. That's not a good sign for us winning the thing when We're not even favorites in a match where we're throwing those guys out.

I don't know whether or not it's one of our best duos. It's an enormous unknown.

What's our best duo in your opinion? What's the one you're counting on the most?

In this foursome format, which is the Alt shot, our best team is Scottie Scheffler and Russell Henley. Russell Henley, deadly short game specialist, and Scheffler will put them in good position. And unsurprisingly, that That team is favored by a good margin over Ludwig Oberg and Matt Fitzpatrick. The Scheffler-Henley team is minus 165. If you want to lay that, I'm not mad at you. I think that's a perfectly fair price.

Should have put that with the packers.

There's nothing. There's still time. Yeah. I mean, you can build any parlay. I already parlayed the Europe to have the first day lead with the Georgia Bulldogs. That was plus 2: 23 tomorrow on the FanDuel sportsbook.

You can't do any shenanigans with Ringer 107 because Sheriff JJ gets upset.

He just wants to know what the rules are. I'm not mad at JJ.

And you like that... What was the other one you like? Just for the... There was one... What was the blanket? There are some- There was one golfer you love.

There are some matchups. Oh, Victor Hovland. Yeah, there are some matchups. So Victor Hovland is matched up in who will win more points in this tournament, Victor Hovland or Cam Young. Cam Young was favorite at minus 148, and Hovland was plus 110 or something like that. Hovland has played every single session of the last two Ryder Cups. He played all five sessions in 2021, and he played all five sessions in 2023. And the Euro team comes in with analytics saying, yeah, we think that Hovland is a good investment. So I just I think for Cam Young, he's the king of New York. He was born in... I don't know where he was born, but he was raised out in the Hudson Valley. His dad was a golf pro out in Sleepy Hollow. And he, as a kid, won a tournament at Beth Page, and I think set the course record. So he has good vibes at Beth Page. But that price is crazy to me for a rookie.

Baby doll is going to be there at Ryder Cup to no surprise.

I wonder if If there's... All I have to do is go find the smoking area. That's where Baby doll will be.

Find the smoking area. Also try to find the odds on Fandil for amount of hours Baby was at the Ryder Cup this weekend compared to amount of hours he was in LA for Jimmy's show.

What did he need to be at Jimmy's show for?

The Ryder Cup is favored by 38 hours. More details to come on Sunday's pod.

I'm backing Baby on this one. What did he need to be at the show for? His The work was done. The fact that there's a show, that's the work. That's what Baby doll is there for. Jimmy's on the show. Is there a show? Yes. My work is done. Where's the golf tournament? I can't do a Baby Doll accent.

Baby, come on. I got to meet Carson Daily. He's hosting a Ryder Cup thing. He did.

He did host one.

Yeah. Baby is very excited for this. He really feels like this is going to be a special Special Weekend for America. I'm a little more dubious. There are some unbelievable home field advantage Ryder Cup stats, at least for the last six or seven. So that is hence the thing. I'd be surprised if we won. I really would. I would be surprised.

Why?

I just think that foreign team, the one thing they haven't done lately is come on our turf and take the cup. I thought what Sal said about how the draw 10 to and Europe gets to keep the cup, that's an interesting one. But I would bet the raise the trophy bet for Europe, which I think was plus 125, something like that.

Let's look and see if that's changed any.

Because then you're covered with the stupid draw because they could always play for the draw.

Lift the trophy, USA minus 140, Europe plus 124. So that's closer to the implied probability. I like the 124. Those odds. Yeah. That's a little bit.

All right. So you're going on Saturday. People should know if they run into you. You love buying drinks.

I hope to be going from hospitality tent to hospitality tent, just helping myself. I don't plan on.

Is there a signature drink?

That's a great question. I don't know. What would it be?

Like a Beth Page.

Yeah, I'm sure.

Beth Page Spritzer.

Probably.

Beth Page Splash.

I haven't done any of that research yet. A patriotic punch. I'm not planning on buying any drinks spending my own money on that.

Don't buy one Let Vino buy you drinks if you're running. Vino.

Yeah, come through, baby.

I guarantee he'll have a really nice Ryder Cup 2025 vest. All right, house. Have a great time. I really hope we're 10 and 10 next time I talk to you.

You and me both. I'm not going on wood. Good job by us.

Good job by us. See you later. All right. Thanks to Todd. Thanks to house. Thanks to Gehow and Eduardo as well. Don't forget, Prestige TV Task Sunday night, and then new rewatchable is coming Monday. So you have four days here to watch this thing. And I will be back on Sunday night with the Cus. And we'll talk about some of the... We both went to Jimmy Kimmel's show on Tuesday, which was fantastic. Just a It's been a great experience. But we'll talk about all the stuff that happened with Jimmy this week. And we'll talk about Sunday night football and college football and a whole bunch more. Enjoy the weekend. I'm off to enjoy my birthday, and I will see you on Sunday. Must be 21 plus in President's select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help. Com. Call 1-88-789-7777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp. Org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma. Org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts, or call 1877-8 Hope, NY or text Hope, NY in New.