Transcript of A Rockets Gut Punch, Expectations for the Celtics and Pacers, and a Vegas Tourism Slump With Zach Lowe, Sean Fennessey, and Chris Ryan

The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by the Ringer podcast Network, where I put up a new rewatchables on Monday night. We did Airplane, one of the funniest movies ever made, one of the most influential comedies ever made. We talked about that and a whole bunch of other things with special guest, Bill Hater, who absolutely loves this movie. We dove into not just all the great things about this movie, but what it meant to multiple comedy generations and even little kids It was like me who saw it in the theater. So airplane, you could check that out. You can also check out the Prestige TV podcast where we're breaking down Task every episode. We did the third one on Sunday night. Just for the record, we watch the episodes along with you. We only watch one. We do a podcast, then we watch the next one because I hate knowing, trying to do those pods and pretending to make predictions when you have already gone three episodes ahead. So we have a special email address that you can email us mailback questions for and a whole bunch of stuff.

Task is great. A couple of other house cleaning things before we get to the podcast. So Ravens Lion last night was just an awesome game. And it's funny, I got killed gambling on Sunday, and I really like the lions on the road. I liked the underdog parlay, just them to win the game with the over. I was probably going to do that on Monday. And I got shellacked on Sunday. I stayed away. And of course, the lions and the game goes over. I thought they looked... I just loved how they played. I loved how physical they were. I loved how over and over again they went for it. And I think what I... I didn't do a great job with the preseason this year with some of the takes. I had some good ones, some bad ones. I think what I really underestimated with the Alliance was, I think they heard a lot of the stuff about, well, their coordinators left. They've lost guys in the offensive line. This won't be as good of a team. They have a real fire in their belly I really thought that was a fuck you performance by them in Baltimore.

And even going for that fourth and 2, and they hit Amon Ross, say, Brown on that long pass, and then Montgomery for the exclamation point, breakdown at the end. I thought golf was fantastic, and I thought they really, really bullied Baltimore in a way that was more shocking for wherever you feel about Baltimore, big picture. Now, it's a game where if Henry doesn't fumble, maybe this just goes back and forth and whoever has the ball last wins. But Sal and I talked on Sunday about who was the eighth team. We always want to have the eighth teams we think can win the Super Bowl. And we were debating is Detroit even in there. We learned on Monday night that Detroit's definitely in there. And if anything, Baltimore probably has a shaker case to crack that top eight with the way they got ran on, some of the sloppiness they've had. Now, Baltimore does this every year. They always start out a little shaky, and then all of a sudden, they went 10 straight. Not too worried. But seeing Lamar get sacked seven times and really frazzled a few times was surprising. I didn't know anyone could sack Lamar that many times.

I think another big takeaway is Josh Allen has just clearly cemented that he's the most important guy in the league right now. Now we have 14 weeks left for somebody to take it. But to me, I feel like he's just levitating slightly above Lamar Mahomes and Herbert, because I think Herbert is in that conversation, too, now, which we'll talk more about on Thursday. We're going to do a lot of football on Thursday's podcast. We are going to do on this podcast, Zack Lo. He's coming on because Houston had a just unexpected, terrible Fred Vanbleeid injury that has completely changed. I have to look at them as a contender. We talked about a bunch of options with them. We talked about some of the other teams that we're not sure about as we head into the preseason here, Boston, Indiana, Dallas. Very fun podcast. Picasso, The Trade Machine came out at one point, too. So we have that. And then Sean Fentany and Chris Ryan and I, we did a rewatch was yesterday. And then afterwards, we decided to do a segment about this story about Vegas and how Vegas is offering this big sale this week, and tourism is way down for them, and it's a little bit of a panic time in Vegas.

And the question is, why? What's going on with Las Vegas in 2025? So this might not be the only time I do this segment because it's just something I'm personally fascinated I've been going there for 30 years. I think this will be the 1. 0 version of what's going on with Vegas. I want to do this again with Dave Chang. I want to do this again with Cousin Sal and Jimmy Kimmel at some point. But just checking in every once in a while this year with Vegas and just what's going on with this city? What do they want to be? What's going wrong? What's going right? We just talked about all this variable. So speaking to Jimmy Kimmel, good luck tonight. He's going to be back on the air. Can't wait to watch it. And I think since I did my thing on Thursday about the whole situation, I talked about leverage and power. And the biggest thing that changed over the next couple of days was that Disney just took an absolute schlacking from everybody. And I think it hit the point where it made them look so bad to handle it the way they were handling it that they had to bring the show back.

So we'll see how it goes. I haven't been this interested in a show that he's I don't think ever. We'll see what he has planned tonight and how he handles everything. I am just glad that the show is still going to continue to exist. Good luck to him. We're going to take a break. We're going to do Pearl Jam and then come back with Zack Lowe. And then after that, Sean Fennessey and Chris Ryan. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by Fandil, and the NFL is back. And thank God, Fandil has everything. They got an awesome app. They have SGPs. They have great futures. They have good prop bets, live betting, your way bets, clean app. It's great to use. Been using it for a few years. Every time I go back to Boston or any place that has Fandil and I get to use it, I'm always excited. I'm on an airplane runway. You done the airplane runway? Yeah, everybody. Or airplane runway. There should be a button, the runway button. I'm on the airplane runway. I got to get this in. Get your bets in, build something bold, make every game feel bigger.

Download the Fandil app or head to fando. Com/bs to get started. The Ringer, committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help. Com to learn more about the resources and help lines available and listen to the end of this episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus in President Select States or 18 plus in President DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Get in a problem call, 1-800. Gamble or visit rg-help. Com. Call 1-88-789-777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat-in-connecticate. Paid endorsement. All right, we're recording this Tuesday morning. Got up early for this one. Zack Lois here. I've been on his podcast, but he hasn't been on mine since the finals, and it feels like a million things have changed since the finals. The biggest thing recently is Fred Van Blicke goes down. Torn ACL, Houston was a team I had been looking at as, how good could these guys be? And now they don't have a point guard. And this is a weird one for me because I both felt like he was the biggest obstacle that I'm actually winning a title, but just not having him completely is even a bigger obstacle. What was your reaction when you heard it?

My reaction was, I I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this injury by itself takes the Rockets from a team that could plausibly win the Championship to a team that might not be able to win, maybe can't win the Championship. He's that important. And they don't have I mean, Ahmed Thompson is going to get more reps. That's awesome. He's a completely different player. Reid Sheppard, is he ready? He barely played last year. I just think they have just nobody like Fred VanVleet and no traditional point guard who can calm you down. They have Durant now, and I think one of the ripple effects of this is the risk of overtaxing Durant in the first 40 games of the season, like run a bunch of pick and rolls, all that stuff. So I think it's a disaster for the Rock because I think it's a break for the Lakers, the Wolves, the next tier of teams in the West because I had them. I had, OKC, Denver, Houston as a clear top three in the West.

I agree with that. I had Houston as a 3A and Minnesota as a 3B because I still feel like, I don't know why we're just discarding Minnesota and making them 20 to 1 to win the title, all that stuff when they have a top seven guy and a pretty deep team.

I can't wait to get into that.

Yeah. All right. So you run through the seven stages of grief with this injury. And at some point, and Hollinger wrote about a little bit for the athletic today. Not to call it a silver line, but it's like, okay, well, now they get to find out what do they have with Reid Sheppard. Could Ahmed Thompson actually run the offense through him more? Could you run the offense through Schengen? All that This stuff sounds great. There's a regular season version of this where it's like, Yeah, okay, we'll find out some stuff. I'm just fast forward into the playoffs. I'm fast forward into that game that we went to, game four in Indiana, when Dorton Caruso were just like, You're not dribbin the ball over half court. They're not going to have anybody who can play in an actual playoff series, not just against OKC, but against Minnesota that I completely trust as a ball handler. And it's like, cool, we have Kevin Durant. Cool, we have Schengen. We can run half court shit through them. I'm just talking about the 94 feet, the pressure. And one of the biggest revelations from last year was how important multiple guards were, ball handling, playmaking, having people be able to share the distribution of stuff.

And this now puts all of the pressure on Reid Sheppard, who didn't play last year.

It's too much pressure on Reid Sheppard. It's too much to expect from him to take a huge leap to being like, all of a sudden, what is it going to be a 30 minute a game point guard on this team? I haven't read Hollinger's column yet. I missed it this morning. All that stuff, I think, was going to be discovered in the regular season anyway. One of the things that's great about Fred Vanbleet is he doesn't have to be a high volume. You got to run every play through him. He can be off the ball. This is why they got him. This is why they got him instead of James Harden. Eimear O'Doke has said that on the record to me last year. We didn't want a guy who would siphon ball handling duty from our main guys. And I think you would have found all that stuff out. He's a low mistake player, and they don't have anybody like him. Actually, it made me think, they're built to win right now. You don't get Kevin Durant at age 37 and maybe be on the verge of extending them if you're not built to win this season immediately.

So regular season self-discovery is not even that big of a silver lining to me because I think it would have happened anyway, and it's not what this season is about. And it's made me think, will they actually start getting aggressive in trades for a guard? I think that's in play, too. I haven't gone through the list of names who that would be yet, but I don't know who's going to be available. They have some salaries they could trade, but it wouldn't surprise me if they just were like, No, we're not punting. We're not just doing this Silver Lining stuff. Let's go get somebody.

So I've been up since five o'clock in the morning. Don't ask. Sometimes you get older, you just wake up sometimes. And that's probably why I probably have some eye bags under my thing. But yeah, I was going through all this stuff, and that was... I landed there. Can we go there in 10 minutes?

Yeah. It's your podcast. We can go anywhere you want.

No, but I landed there mentally by about 7: 15 AM Pacific Time, where I was like- See, I went immediately into the worst stage of grief.

There was no stages for me.

I was like, Oh my- I did the whole... I test her up the Reid Sheppard 30 minutes a game. What if he's ready? He was the third pick in the draft. But by 7: 15, I was like, You just traded all this stuff for Kevin Durant. You're in win-down mode. Every year that you have him, God only knows what he's going to look like two years from now. This is the moment right now. You can't go into the playoffs with the roster you have. So what's the move? Now, Reid Sheppard, they picked third in the draft. Our draft guys really liked him. A lot of people liked him. There were some Mark Price possibilities with him. I thought he was going to play more last year. He just didn't fit in with their timeline and having another undersized guard. I think they were trying all these different lineups. I do think he's talented. There's some shooting stuff that he brings to the table. I was looking at their three-point shooting was probably like their Achilles heel last year, where you have Schengen and Thompson who just can't shoot from three at all. So 40% of your guys, not threats at all.

Van Buit was around 35, 36%. Jalen Green was in the 33, 35 range. Brooks was their best three-point shooter, which speaks for itself. So that was one of the things that I think they had to really think about. Their 21st three-point percentage. It felt worse when you watched them, and they were just a weird team in general. They were first in rebounds. They were 28th in assists. They couldn't shoot threes. It was just this hodgepodge team that somehow made sense when you watched it but didn't really make sense. It ended up losing to a pretty limited Warriors team in seven. I don't think that was a great series for the Rockets, which was one of the reasons they make the trade. So if you're going to reinvent them a little bit, you would reinvent them with three-point shooting, which opens the door for Reid Sheppard, who they spent the third pick on. And if he's good, they have to find out this season, even though he's like 21.

I think they will. I mean, you don't invest. I remember he was getting thrown into trades. It's just like when they were in the Durant sweepstakes. Just like Reid Sheppard is the fifth thing in a trade. You don't put the third pick in the draft with the comps that he had as a shooter and a guard playmaker coming out of college after one year where he barely played. He's not a throw-in guy. But I do think a lot of people-We're going to do this now, aren't we? Well, no, No, I just don't know what else to say. It's just they were a team that could not afford an injury like this if they want to compete against the heavyweights in the West in the playoff. Beat two of those teams in the playoff. Fred Vanvlie was a perfect player for them. Low mistake, good shooter, good playmaker, calm under pressure, natural pick and roll partner for Durant and Shangoon, can play off with Shangoon. They just have no one... Ahmed Thompson's awesome. We both put him on the freaking dream team in 2028. He's on our Olympic roster, no brainer, locked in. We love Ahmed Thompson.

Yes, we did. He did make progress running some of the offense last year, but he was still mostly like a cutter, screener, a secondary option. There's a gigantic leap from there to like, okay, here's 35 pick and rolls a game. Go ahead. It's a huge change.

So if you're going, let's go glass half full with the Rockets. Do you have any Eurobasket people in your life? I know you didn't care, and I know I didn't really care at all. But did you have anybody who was like, I'm really into this. I'm watching these.

Do NBA scouts who were in attendance count? Because that's all I had. Only those people who are like, Hey, are you here? Are you coming? I can't believe you're not going for the final four. I'm like, Sorry, it's not going to happen.

So there was like a Schengen summer breakout thing happening. And it was a thing. It's the deep recesses of this is you go on vacation, I'm in football. I'm sorry, I'm not going to watch Eurobasket. But people are really excited about Schengen. He's He was 1910 and five last year. And the word that was getting thrown around, including by somebody I trust, was like, he looked Yokey in Eurobasket.

I was going to say, is it going to start with a J. I don't want to start with a J? Don't put that on him.

Don't put that on Al Frenchenglo. This is a tournament where Dennis Schroeder not only was the MVP, but probably solidified his FIBA Hall of Fame candidacy as one of the greatest international basketball players we've you've ever had. So take it with a grain of salt. But could he make a leap up? What's he going to look like with Durant? Are there big, giant lineups they can play where they're just like, fuck it. We're going to play Thompson at point forward. We're going to have Durant out there with Eison, with Chibari Smith, with KD, with Schengen. Look at us. We're just gigantic. Good luck.

Yeah, they're going to do that. They did that last year. I mean, their identity last year was defense and beating the shit out of you on the glass, including with the double center lineup that became such a delightful plot twist in the season with Adams and Schengen. I do think, and nothing about how they changed their team other than maybe playing Sheppard a little bit more chips away at any of that identity. Durant certainly doesn't. I do think Schengen will make a leap. I love Schengen. I'm all in on Schengen. He's awesome. I mean, it's less about him and what's left over and more about the void that Vanvleet leaves and how that void would manifest itself on the biggest stages in this conference against these teams. There's a competition in the West at the top is just so good. You have the best player in the world. You have the defending champs who won 68 games. You have all these teams below them that have interesting upsides, including Minnesota. It's your margin for this injury is like nothing in the West.

So their odds dropped to 16 to one on FanDuel. Okay, C is plus 210. And I don't know if that's too high or too low. To me, it's like if you could take, okay, so you're the field.

This is to win the West or to win the Championship?

No, this is to win the title. Okay, C is plus 210. Oh, my God. Cleveland is plus 650, and then Denver is plus 750. I've been saying this for two months. I don't understand how Denver doesn't have the second best odds because I think I personally think- But yes, you do.

They're in the West. That's all. It's like by default, the East team will have the second best odds.

I No, but I just think whoever wins, if I had to say, now granted, this September 23rd, whoever wins that OKC Denver series to me is probably going to win the title. Well, I'm looking at it now. Unless there's a weird injury.

Why is Cleveland plus 650 and the Knicks are plus 1,000?

That's another weird one.

I'm sidetracking. I'm sorry.

But why is Minnesota 20 to 1? How does Minnesota have worst odds than Houston?

I have to click show more to get down to Minnesota, who has worse odds to win the NBA title than the Orlando Magic.

And the Lakers. The Lakers are 14 to 1. Now, granted, they jack the Laker odds up because the dumb ass Laker fans bet them every year. They do this to the Red Sox. Oh, my God. Well, they do this to the Red Sox fans, too. There's certain fan bases where you're like, we're just going to price this differently, and these dumb asses will bet it. The Clippers are 18 to one. So Minnesota has the ninth best odds. And I think this Houston situation has really opened the door for them because they have a chance to be a a two-seed, right?

You are preaching to the preacher. I have said on multiple podcasts, mostly when we talked about the Lakers, though, I did a Minnesota one last week, that I feel like the Lakers being where they are in the odds, I've used the phrase disrespectful to the Timberwolves who have made the Western Conference Finals two years in a row. Yeah, they lost one key guy in Alexander Walker, but they've got some young guy. I mean, that's just part of being a team. You should be able to afford losing your six best guy.

They lost the most replicable guy you can lose who's a bench guy, who's like a swingman perimeter guy. You can find those guys. You can find them at the trade deadline, whatever.

They have Ant, who's just nothing but ascending superstar. They have a good defense. They're just a good team. They're a really good team. They're tough to beat. As long as they don't beat themselves with turnovers, they're really, really tough to beat, and they don't have a lot of weaknesses.

Well, I mean, in the Lakers defense, they did handily beat Minnesota in the playoffs last year. Oh, no, that was the complete opposite. Minnesota killed them.

Yeah, but LeBron was banged up. He He won't get banged. He's only 40, 41. He won't be banged up again in the playoffs.

Lebron was banged up. He was banged up in the fifth game. All of a sudden, the banging up seemed more prominent. Back to Houston.

Yeah.

I got to do it. Picasso dusted it off, started to go through the rosters, look for some people.

This is why you were texting me. Now I know why you were texting me about the Rockets, Nets, Trade, Pick, Trade swap last year in connection with the McHill-Bridge's trade. Now I know why, because you're building Houston trades with all the assets they still have.

Well, the interesting thing about the Rockets for this particular situation, if they decided there was some real urgency, and maybe they won't. There's Shingun's '23 and Thompson's 22, and those are the guys they care about the most. And maybe they're like, let's not overreact. With that said, they don't have their first round pick this year. It doesn't matter because I don't think that would be a big draw anyway, even though it's a good draft. Next year, they can swap their first with Brooklyn, but they also have Phoenix's is unprotected first. They have their own first for four straight years, five straight years.

I think you should stop right there. If you're the Rockets, what you just said about 2027 is like, hey, guys, we could have two lottery picks in 2027.

Like the next pick and the Sun's pick. Impossible high lottery pick.

That's a big, big deal.

Yeah. So they have that. And they also have... They have two in '29 of Dallas, Phoenix, Houston. They get the best two out of that. That Brooklyn trade... So we should talk, we should sidebar and talk about this Brooklyn Trade really fast. So Brooklyn, and you were saying it was part of like, they're not doing the Bridges Trade unless they can also get their 25 first back. They get their 25 first back from Houston because Houston had the swaps rights on it. And they get a 26 first back from Houston. So Brooklyn gets control of their own picks in 25 and 26. In exchange, they gave Houston Phoenix's first in 2025, Phoenix's 27 first unprotected and the best two of Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, and 29. The reason this is important, because last year, Brooklyn ends up being better than they thought they were going to be. They get the eighth pick. The pick they gave up in the trade was the 10th pick. So they moved up two spots. So this comes down now, really, to the 2026 first for three first-round pics, including Phoenix's 27 first, which I would love to have if I'm basically anybody.

That trade is a disaster. Can you defend it? Or this is yet another terrible Sean Marks moment. I don't know what else he has to be looked at.

It turned out to be an absolutely great bet by the Rockets, betting specifically against the Suns, betting Getting the Suns' picks would help them get either Durant or Booker or both. And I believe they used one of those picks to get Durant, the number 10 pick. They did.

That number 10 pick they got back from Brooklyn was in the Durant trade.

I thought the Rockets had slightly underrated the risk that that pick last year could turn into Cooper Flag, but they actually properly waited it. The new lottery odds change all this. And they just said, we're going to bet on a bounty of Sun stuff over this one golden chip, Net's asset. And it turned out to be a fantastic bet. The Nets self-sabotaged by being too good to get into the Cooper flag derby. And now they're just going to try to do it again and again and again going forward. But they can only do it again this one time, because after that, the Rockets got to swap their pick in '27. I thought that was a hugely underrated a part of that whole series of transactions that the Rockets kept those swap rights with Brooklyn in 2027, because the message to them was, you get two years to do this, two summers to do it. If you can't do it and you're still bad, you're still fucked. We're still going to take your pick.

Yeah. I didn't love it for the Rockets because I thought Brooklyn had a chance to be the worst team in the league. And I find it hard to believe they wouldn't have done that Bridges trade, if this trade, if they couldn't have gotten their pick back. I still think you have to do the Bridges trade because it was so many picks. How do they be like, now we can't do it. We're just going to go 38 and 44. But I think it worked out unbelievably well for Houston.

It could not have worked out better.

Because part of that calculation was we think Phoenix in a couple of years could be really bad. I thought Phoenix was going to be good last year. I thought they were... I had them as a top four seed. It crated immediately, and now that pick looks awesome. If we were drafting, if we did a draft and forth on five first rounders you would want in 2027, Phoenix would be one of the five teams, correct? Who else would you pick?

Well, I mean, you got to pick all the also-runs like Washington, Sacramento. It's always good to have a King's pick. And by the way, Utah, I believe, owns... They have some golden... I'm looking at the wrong thing. They have the Suns 2031 pick because remember the Suns did that thing? Give us three pics, now we'll give you one pick out the They've traded a lot of potentially massively valuable individual picks.

Utah got really hosed on their Lakers first round pick swap. They had to have been secretly the most upset about the Luka trade because they were just sitting there in pole position with a Lakers team that God only knows what would happen to them. Let's take a break and Picasso is going to throw some names at you. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. It's one of the biggest weeks in sports. It really is. Lots of stuff to gamble on. Fanduel turning into a full-on celebration. Introducing FanDuel Boost Fest, where every day from September 25th to the 28th brings you a 50% profit boost on the biggest matchups in football, baseball, golf, and more. I mean, we got Ryder Cup, we got NFL, we have college football, we have the last week of the baseball season. There's just wherever you want to go. But Ryder Cup, especially, really fun wrinkle. However you play it, 50% profit boost. That is ready to go every a single day during Boost Fest. Download the Fanduel app or head to fanduel. Com/bs to jump into Boost Fest, where the games are big and the boosts are bigger.

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They could be cutthrowed and put the Van Biet contract in a trade as a salary. He's 25 million this year, 25 million next year. So if you put him and Sheppard together, that gets him in the 30s, which opens the door for the Trey Young type of guys. You could put... Oh, boy. Wow. I'm not saying they should do that. I'm just saying. Jibari and Shepard together puts them in the 20 range. Shepard by himself is around 10. And I think they're probably looking at stop gap guys because you're thinking about, okay, see, we're a point guard short. We need somebody really good if we're actually win the So I'm going to give you five names in no particular order.

By the way, I just jotted down as we were doing this. I went through the standing, just literally jotted down names. So I'm excited to see if just my instantaneous jot down matched any of yours.

I have five names. Number one. I'll go in descending order from least likely to get an eye bulge, you don't breathe for a second to huge eye bulge.

Can't wait.

I Sun Mu.

Not on my list. Good name. Talked about his extension case yesterday on the Zack Lo show. He's a good player.

Seven million a year, stop gap. They could probably patch some stuff together, maybe even throw some of their lesser pics and just grab them. If you're the Bulls, what do you care? You just want to go 40 and 42 again this year and not pay the luxury tax. That's your only goal year after year.

Limited resume as a ball handler, okay shooter, very good defender fits in that way. I don't hate it. I don't think it really moves you back into the upper, upper stratosphere. It does not.

It was just a name that jumped out. I would rather not do anything in Hope Aaron holidays, half decent. Second name, Jose Alvarado.

Okay, yeah, you're starting lower than me. I didn't have him on my list. Look, I love Jose Alvarado.

How does that mean? He makes four and a half million, could probably steal him. I don't think that swings an OKC series, but I think that would help them. Don't have to give up a lot. Maybe you throw first at them.

Protected contract. I'd rather get to sumu for the size, but Alvarado is a better playmaker, maybe a little bit better shooter. Trading with the Pelicans, you never know. You could get an unprotected first or something for the Pelicans. You just never know what's on the table from them.

Some swath. All right, now we're getting serious. Scottie Pippen Jr.

I like that. That's a good name.

Cheap contract, could get him easily. I don't know what Memphis's plan is for this season, but I assume they're not trying to win the title would be part of, I guess, considering they traded Desmond Bain for a bunch of stuff, and they waived Cole Anthony, and Jaron Jackson was hurt, and I don't know when he's going to start this season. Could you actually turn Pippin into a real draft pick asset?

Pippin is good. And one of the things I like about these names at the lower price point, salary-wise, is they can be one for one or two for two deals. Houston is reaching the point without Vanvleet that a two Rockets out, two Rockets rotation guys out for one back is like you're thinning your team out quite a bit.

Oh, yeah. I should have mentioned this earlier. So the starting lineup they have right now is Schengen, Durant. I'm going to say Finnie Smith, Thompson, and Sheppard. Let's say that's the five. Adams, Jabbari, Eison. Clint Capella is just randomly at this team. Akoji, holiday. So to your point, they have eight and a half plus Capella plus Akoji plus holiday as Stopgap guys.

I'm just going to say that I like Jay Shantate. I have a soft spot for Jay Shantate.

All right, let's throw Tate in there, too. All right, here are my last two, unless you want to throw one at me. Actually, throw one at me.

I have bigger names.

Okay, I'm moving into my bigger category right now.

All right, so some of this is depending on how the first 20 games of the season goes. Is there a team that is way below expectations and suddenly pivots, including perhaps your team, which we'll get to in a second. On a lower salary scale, Jaden Ivy?

I don't think I'm beating OKC with Jaden Ivy as my ball handler. I don't mind it, though.

Do you throw a boatload of assets at the Celtics for Derrick White?

Can we put a pin on that for a second? I'll give you two lower-level guys, and then we'll talk Derek White. Okay. Payton Pritchard.

You can throw any of the Celtics cards. I have Simons on my list. I don't think defensively he fits into their culture. But any of the Celtics cards, why not throw them in? Payton Pritchard would be fine.

Payton Pritchard is making, I don't know, nine million a year, 10 million a year, somewhere in that range. It weirdly lines up with Reid Sheppard's salary. So part of the question for me is, if I'm doing a trade value list, where is Reid Sheppard? He's certainly not in the top 50. Is his trade value higher than Payton Pritchard? Is it lower? Is it the same? I have no idea. Do you have any take at all on that?

I'm trying to look at I'm looking at Boston's. And if you're Boston, did you do that? I think they're probably about equal. And Pritchard maybe edges him out by a nose because his contract is longer than I thought. He has three years left on his contract at a salary than Reid Sheppard. Sheppard's got the intrigue. Pritchard just won six men of the year. I would say Pritchard probably has a little bit more like next two years trade value. That's an interesting one, though. Again, it depends. If Boston season goes off the rails fast, Who knows?

Well, if they've made it, and we're going to talk about them in the next segment, but if they made the decision to Tatum, we don't care how good you look, you're not coming back, and they own their own draft pick, part of maybe making yourself a little worse for this would be turning Pritchard, a really good bench guy, borderline, decent starter into a project like Reid Sheppard. But you'd have to really like Reid Sheppard. I think that's the first one out of the names as I escalate up the ladder, Where you go, yeah, that's a guy that could actually play in a series against OKC in Minnesota. I don't know if you played Crunch Time, but you could get 20-25 really good minutes from him. Then the other one, ironically, another white guy, T. J. Mcdonald. And I would say his trade value is probably lower than Pritchard. But Indiana in the same boat as Boston, I don't know what their strategy is going to be for this year. But if you can turn T. J. Mcdonald on a Reid Sheppard, you got to at least think about it because you're going nowhere this year anyway, right?

I think for Houston, you need more than... You need another asset.

That almost seems to be a two for one.

Yeah, T. J. Mcdonal is 33. We both love T. J. Mcdonald. Suddenly, the greatest isolation score in the NBA out of nowhere.

Single-handedly with Knippel, bringing back the upfakes around the basket.

Yeah. I think I need a little more. But these are good names. I was doing, as you would say, blink test just looking at the Stanies who pops into my mind, and I want bigger names than this. But these are a good range of names.

These are the, let's do something, but let's not do anything dramatic. Derek White is the D dramatic name. I mean, that's one where I need... Give me some shit back for Derek White. I need... Oh, yeah. That Phoenix pick you have in '27, that's coming back. You're giving me real stuff for that. And If you're Houston, I don't know what the price is. I think Sheppard probably has to be in it, too. But if you're Houston and you basically turn this Van Biet disaster into Derek White with some of your pics and you make a real run at this year, could you actually win the title with Derek White? I think is a real question.

You get four years of runway. Now, that takes him through age 35. He's got four years left on his contract with a player option in the fourth year. I mean, Emey knows him already.

He's a top 50 player. This is a different caliber of dude. Going from Fred Bambli to Derek White, you have upgraded your team.

You made your team better. He's a better player.

Yeah.

I had a couple other- What's the price for him, though, for you, in your opinion? For Boston, it's three firsts, a young player. They would demand up a shitload justifiably for him.

It's a tough phone call to Tatum. It is a tough phone call to Tatum. Heard the rehabs going great. And to Jalen, too. Heard the rehab's going great. We've traded Derek White for a bunch of assets that won't help you guys until about three years from now.

It's a tough phone call to Tatum. On the other hand, Tatum has won an NBA title, several first-team All-MBA appearances, and is slated to make $71. 5 million in 2029, 2030. So I would hope that he would see the bigger picture.

Just these numbers starting with a seven for NBA players is really something. Who else did you have for the big names?

I get these are just names I randomly wrote down in a 45-second scan while you were talking on the podcast. So take them with a grand assault. The recently injured Tyler Hero So it would be hard to get there from a salary standpoint.

What's his salary? He's like at 30?

31. 31. So Vanvleet is 27.

So Vanbleet has to be in that. Yeah. Man, that's pretty cutthroat, trading. I don't know if I'm doing that unless I can... I would put Van Bied in a Derek White trade, but not...

Okay.

Am I winning the title with Tyler Hero in the Van Bied spot? Probably not.

The next ones are just wild. And again, I cannot emphasize enough of how little thought I put into any of this.

Yeah, no. This is why we love podcasting.

If you're willing to eat a lot of years, I actually don't think this is possible. Emmanuel quickly just popped in my mind. I just think it's too much money, too many years. He's too unproven. I don't see it.

Yeah, he doesn't solve my, I want to make sure I have ball handling and leadership in the most tense possible moments in May and June. I'm not feeling that with a manual quickly.

The last one requires 17 different different things that go wrong for one team and just a lot of bad vibes, a lot of puzzle pieces have to shift.

I'm excited for this.

What if things just go very badly this season for Austin Reeves with the Lakers? What if it's like, you asked me to come off the bench, extension talks, they couldn't really get started because you couldn't offer me enough, but I'm not sure, do you really value me enough in a Luca world? Lebron is still here. Is he retiring? If he's retiring, is that good for my future in LA? I'm just saying, there's a world in which it goes... I don't think this is going to happen, but it's a name that popped into my head.

So you're running some offense through him, not as a point guard, but as a ball, almost like how you'd use hero.

Yeah, he can do that.

It feels like you have some thoughts on maybe Austin Reeves might be more available this season than we heard.

No, I'm not saying The Lakers love Austin Reeves.

The aggregators are like...

No. The Lakers love Austin Reeves. Austin Reeves loves being a Laker. Austin Reeves's people are very close to the Rambi and Jeanie Buss. They love it there. But I'm just saying, we've seen more hunky dory situations go awry before in big markets where a lot of stuff happens. Who knows? I don't think that will happen. I don't think any of these names are likely. I like your little names I just don't know that the little names do enough for me.

I'm surprised you- Derek White does, though.

Oh, Derek White. I mean, look. But to your point, I think right now- I don't want to train Derek White. I think right now the Celtics are with you. I think right now the Celtics are like, look, even if this becomes a gap here, we're bringing everybody back next year. We're going to try and go full bore again. Got the Js in their prime making a gazillion dollars. And Derek White is just an A plus plus winning player.

So I agree with You don't want to hop in the Trey Young Trade car and just drive around the block?

Drive it. Hop in. I'll ride shotgun. I'm on record of saying that I said yesterday that if I'm the Hawks, I'm going four years, 180 million for Trey Young right now. And I'm offering a bit to him today. And if he doesn't take it, then I got to think, do I want to raise it up a little bit? But take the car out. You're the rocket. You want to trade for Trey Young?

Well, I really like my roster from the Hawks. I don't want to be I'm paralyzed by the Treyung extension, where I basically limited myself to, it's going to be this year only. And then I'm going over the second apron from that point on with my roster once we have to pay some of these other guys. Treyung on Houston with Durant and with Schengen, I'm just not going to be good enough defensively. I don't think.

It's a big ingredient to throw into your team two weeks before the season starts.

To have you mention doing on the court together. I'm not winning the title.

This is also a guy who is accustomed to running like literally 60 pick and rolls a game. He is the entire offense and plopping him into one of the greatest scores of all time. And this young ascendant center who does a lot of stuff with the ball. It's tricky. That's tricky. And it's a lot of money going out, too. He's making 46 million dollars.

I really like Payton Pritchard, but I also like that move for the Rockets. I actually think that's the answer in this because it's a little lower risk. It makes sense for Boston because you would only do it if you got a better asset than him as a player. Then you keep Simmons for the year and you have this asset that maybe you could flip back. The Derek White thing, though, if I'm Houston, I'm calling about Derek White. Like, Yo, had to make this call. What's going on? Would Boston trade with Houston is another interesting one.

Because of?

Their coach, the Celtics.

Can I give you one more name as I'm going through a random team that I just have to remind myself sometimes that they exist and we should talk about them?

Yeah. Colin Sexton?

Yes. How did you know? That's the name.

I looked at him, too. Expiring contract, 19 million. Charlotte doesn't care. Could Charlotte get Reid Sheppard for Colin Sexton? No, no. That would be crazy.

No, no, no, no, no, I think Colin Sexton is pretty good. I think that's actually a good name. I'd have to work out what the trade would be, but I think that's a good name.

I jettisoned him because he's at 19 million.

It's a great use of the word jettison. I don't know that if I've said that out loud in five years, that word.

That's a great word. I like to dust them off. They would have to put... That would have to be their VanVleet. And I don't think they're going to trade VanVleet for Colin Sexton, just for a variety of reasons. But Jabbari would have I don't know. I couldn't figure out how to make that one work.

Can I ask you one more Rockets question?

Yeah. Well, I have another Rockets question for you, too. What's yours?

Are you surprised at all that Tauri Yussen extension has not happened and there hasn't been a whiff of noise about it at all?

What does that extension look like for you?

Well, Jabbari got what? Four or five and 5,120. I think it was something like that. You know, I think if I'm Easton, I've had some leg injuries that have kept me out for a while that have been recurring. Hopefully, those are behind them. But he's probably asking for 30, 25 a year, four years, 100, something like that.

He played 25 minutes a game last year. Okay. Twelve points a game, six rebounds, 30 million?

I wouldn't give him that. I'm saying he's 25 too much. I mean, Gidey just got 25. Gidey is a more proven player, but with a lot of question marks about- You put up stats.

I mean, you and I both really like Tari Eeson, but man, he's going to make more than 20 million a year?

If there's an extension, I'll bet you it's over 20 million a year.

Really? Wow. I just didn't think they were given those. You did the pot about it yesterday with the aprons. It just feels like that money is in there in the same way. Do you think he has more contract value than Kominga, who nobody even wanted to offer 20? I personally like Thierry some more, but I don't know. I'd say they're around the same vicinity.

Yeah, they're around the same vicinity. The injuries would scare me. I mean, he did play 82 games as a rookie, 22 the second year is disturbing. 57 last year. I still think these guys just get 20 million. What was your Rockets' question?

Did Van Buit going down make it more or less likely for them as a Yannis trade.

Oh, my God. Okay, now.

Because if we were doing the Yannis Trade Possibility Rankings, they were always in the top three and had a case for number one, right?

Wouldn't you have to say more? Would you just have to? But I don't think Yannis is getting traded this year.

Do you? Listen, it's the NBA.

It's harder to do it during the year. It's harder to do it during the year. That's the only problem.

I'm just conditioned to weirdness and guys being available that we never thought would be available.

But it would have to be- What would happen to Thanasis?

I think he's in the trade. Yeah, I'm just checking. It would be Schengen and Jibari and all the picks, right?

To what end at that point?

Well, but But this is the question of, we have our winner now at Durant, and now we have Yannes, and we can run the team through Yannis because Yannis can basically be point center, and you could talk yourself into it.

It's easy to talk yourself. I was talking to someone in the lead yesterday about the Hawks and Yannis because I just have my radar up on the Hawks. They have those Milwaukee Picks, pieces of the next two Milwaukee Picks. They have Jelen Johnson, they have Risa Shay, they have all the ingredient. They almost hired... They interviewed Yannis' agent to be their GM. There's a lot of just dots sitting out there. And we were pitching this guy and we were pitching trades. He's like, so what's the trade? I was like, well, it's like Jalen Johnson, Risa Shay, probably has to be in it, a bunch of pics and whatever else. And probably Dyson isn't in it. And he was like, oh, you do that for Yannis 100 times out of 100. And I said, well, someone made the point to another person made the point to me, we just saw Dame and Yannis not work well enough. It worked, but not well enough. Should the Hawks think that Trey and Yannis is going to work better than that? No. And he was like, no, you just do the Yannis deal. It's Yannis, you do it. I'm like, I feel like we always say that about now.

He's only 31. He's not old. He's not a shooter, which is a little worrisome for his aging curve. But we always say that about these superstar trades. It's this person, you got to do it. I'm like, I don't know. Do you?

I would zag and say, if you did it, Trey Young should be in the trade.

Yeah, that could be it. You could go that way.

We've already seen this game with Yannis and Dame. I think that's why the Rockets fit is weirdly interesting to me, because I think Yannis really likes to have the ball all the time.

But who's with me? In your trade, it's me. Yannis, Durant, Schengen's out. Amen, Thompson. It's everybody else but Ahmed Thompson and Durant is gone.

Can I just end up with Yannis, Durant, Thompson, maybe Eison? That's interesting. And maybe I keep Reid Sheppard, and then you can have everything else on all my pics. Because I think those pics, that Phoenix '27 pick is a true trade trip. It's interesting because our guy Bobby Marks- You better fucking win.

You better fucking win in the next two years.

Well, our guy Bobby Marks did a piece on ESPN five, six days ago ranking the best draft assets everybody had. I think he had Houston fifth. They have great I completely disagree. I would rather have Houston's picks than anyone else's picks because you could make... Okc has a ton of picks. I don't really individually love any of the picks. Their best pick is probably that top four protected Philly pick. Philly is not going to be bad this year. The Edgecom thing, I think, was a little bit of a game changer for their ceiling. I don't think they're going to buy that.

I heard you with... I can't remember who it was, but you in-house, I think. You're I'm going to say intrigued.

I'm intrigued by Philly because I think they can- You're skinny and beat in particular, has gotten your attention. Wow. Anytime a big man does the Tim Duncan, you have my interest. Skinny Tim Duncan is one of my favorite Tim Duncan.

So you are all in on the 2025, '26 Philadelphia 76ers? I couldn't be less all in.

I did. One of the things I said- I was trying to trick the aggregators.

Simmons, 50 wins coming.

I think they can win the title. I sent you my top 100 list to look at that I was tinkering with. And I had... Embiid was one of those where I just, where does he go? I know it Is he in the '60s? Should he be on the list at all? Should he be in the top 30? I don't like it. Because I don't know how many games he's going to play. If I gave you an over-under for Embiid for 40 games, would you go over or under?

Under.

Yeah. So how can he be higher than, I don't know, 65?

You have him 63rd, one spot behind Rudy Gobert, continuing just the train, the freight train of Rudy Gobert disrespect.

Yeah, honestly, that was just shots at Rudy. There's really no other reason for that. Yeah. So speaking of those finals odds that we mentioned earlier, do we agree, Minnesota 20 to one is the most jarring value bet that doesn't make sense When you look at all the collection of the rest of the guys?

Yeah, because once you get, once you get, Minnesota, then Atlanta is next. And that's, I mean, Warriors plus 3,000 behind Atlanta and Detroit.

Can you see that?

I could see that, yeah.

Those are the odds. And I left out a couple of teams, but- The Warriors aren't there.

The Warriors are- You know why the Warriors aren't there?

Because I would urge everyone not to bet on the Warriors to win the 2026 NBA title. It's ludicrous.

I know they're in the West, too, which influences all of these, but for them to be behind Detroit and Atlanta- By the way, I didn't put Detroit on that list either.

I was looking at because guess who's not winning the title this year? Detroit.

Well, I'm just going on. I'm just looking at FanDuel. You edited FanDuel's list to fit your preferences. Just say Golden State plus... They were like 25 and five with Butler and Steph. I'm like, pull a little respect on Steph Curry's That's all I'm saying.

Sure. Listen, it took them seven games to beat that flawed Houston team last year. And I don't know what's going to be different as everybody's a year older. They're going to be healthier this year. We went through this with LeBron for the entire 2020. It's like, old guys get banged up as the season goes on. This is how it goes. I'm betting on youth every time.

Look, I have already said the window is closed, in my opinion, on this iteration of the Steph Warriors winning the title. That's close. And I don't see a roadmap for them to get back to prominence that does not include a lightning strike trade or free agency signing, which, of course, is possible. But I think they're in a more precarious position as a franchise than perhaps anyone but their diehardiest diehards realize right now.

If I gave you Dallas, 40 to one, Boston, 50 to one, San Antonio, 55 to one, and Milwaukee, 55 to one. And I told you one of those teams was going to win the title with those odds, which one would you guess?

Milwaukee.

So I had that as well.

And it's a simple equation, Giannis plus East.

Yeah. And he gets to the finals, and then it just becomes the best guy in the series. Yeah, you'd probably need some injury luck during the finals on the other team. So when I did my Ringer 100 exercise, the sobering part was there were only two bucks in the hundred. I had Giannis and Miles Turner. And nobody else on the bucks. Not a good sign for the season. I want to talk about that. Let's take one more quick break, and then we'll talk about that. All right, we're jumping into a special part of the show brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. You know how I feel. This is a must. If you like the NFL, you have to subscribe to NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. You get every game every Sunday all in one place. You watch up to four games at once with MultiVue, my buddy. So you can never miss a key moment in the field. It's just incredible. And they made me the CMO. They crowned me their Chief MultiVue officer. So it's my job to tell you which games are a must watch this week. Remember, local national games on YouTube TV, NFL Sunday Ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital-only games, a commercial used device and content Restrictions apply.

Terms and embargoes apply. No refunds. This is a perfect day for us because we have an Ireland game. The Thursday game with the Ireland game. And then they actually staggered the early and the late games perfectly. So we only have seven early games. And here are the four that I would target for the multi-view. Chargers Giants, Chargers 3-0, Jackson Darts, first start. That's a must watch. Philly, Tampa, awesome game. We saw in the playoffs last year, two 3-0 teams. Got to lock that one in. Cleveland, Detroit. So Detroit just looked awesome in Baltimore. And then Cleveland has the makings of... It's a top three defense. We'll see if it travels on the road. I think that's the third one. And then for me personally, I would have Pat's Panthers because I'm a Patriots fan. But I think the right choice is probably Washington, Atlanta. We'll see if Atlanta can bounce back from an embarrassing loss West Carolina, Washington on the road, indoors. That's a really good one. So thanks again, YouTube, for crowning me there, Chief Multiview Officer. Remember, every game, every Sunday, at your fingertips, choosing the ones that deserve a spot on the I take it more seriously than just about anything.

Never miss a moment of the action with NFL sending a ticket on YouTube TV. For a limited time only, get $36 off NFL sending a ticket using code BS36 at checkout. New users only while Supply as last ends 9: 22. Go to youtube. Com/bs to sign up now. Local and national games on YouTube TV, NFL sending a ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital in the games and commercial use device and content restrictions apply. Terms and embargo supply, no refunds. So I mailed you my preliminary Ringer 100. And one of the things I did was I wrote down the teams with how many players they had. And I did this last year and it really helped crystallize in my head, Oh, okay, so you should probably win the title if they can stay healthy. In this year, I have OKC with seven of the top 90 guys. Sga2, Jalen Williams, 11, Chet, 18. And then you still have Dork, Caruso, Hardenstein, and Wallace. It's interesting. The only other team that had more than five was Minnesota, who I had at five, Anthony Edwards, and then 47, 59, 62, 72, and 90. So that's six guys, including DiFrancenzo, who I think is one of the best 100 players in the league.

And nobody else had more than five. Denver, I had five, Nicks, five, Houston, five. They had six before Vanvleet, and then after that, it's four or less. I think that matters. I think you have to think about the league that way. And if somebody has six of the top 90 guys, including a top seven guy, they should be one of the title favorites, in my opinion.

Look, I think Minnesota is underrated. We agree. I did not have them quite in the same... I had them knocking on the Houston Denver tier. I think Denver is better than them. Although, again, as I've said repeatedly, Minnesota fans, they now have a track record against Denver and against Joka That could not be dismissed. It could not be ignored as a fluke. There's something there. I think you may have Divenchenzo a little bit overrated. I would take a couple of guys and put them in the top 100 over him, but it's fine either way. Yeah, I think they're tough as hell. Their defense is going to be solid. I said this last week with Mahony, I just think there's something structurally just slightly askew with their team that manifestsends itself at the There always seem to be one playmaker short, like half a playmaker short, half a shooter short, or one of each. Just something. And then figuring out the big man rotation among those three guys is just something that just can't- Something Not quite click into place with their rotation, but they're very, very good.

If Dillingham was actually playable and impactful as a bench guy this year, does that change their ceiling for you?

Sure. And I think Shannon is going to be as a bench guy as well. And Clark, maybe too. Jalen Clark, they tried him against Oklahoma City in the conference finals last year. He wasn't quite ready for it, but Shannon was ready. And again, Dillingham as the playmaker The straight line drive guy, that's a missing piece for them. But they're just rock solid, rock fucking solid. It's just their biggest problem. I said this to Mahoney, their biggest problem is the same problem that everyone else in the West has, is that the Thunder are just incredible and young and going to be getting better.

The Thunder, who was hiding the Jalen Williams wrist injury that they never told us about from the last basically three months of the season, including the playoffs. So just from that alone, they're probably going to be better. I think it's funny that these three teams are all in the same division. Okc Denver, Minnesota, not that divisions matter. But I'm wondering, they changed. I always forget this. They changed the seeds a little bit, right? So we could potentially have OKC, I'm sorry, Denver and as the two, three, or is that impossible?

No, I think that's possible. I think division, they've reduced it to a tiebreaker thing in very rare scenarios.

So your Minnesota case that you made about how well they matched up with Denver over the years, that might be our two, three.

Could be.

I assume OKC is going to win it again. Yeah, so going through that top 100, which was just a fun exercise for my brain. I had Denver with number one, 40, 44, 66, and 74. And I didn't have Michael Porter on my list. So Cam Johnson is basically a free ad for them, not to mention the Bruce Brown, Hardaway, Valanchunis, whatever they can get from the young guys, Watson and Strather this year. I think they're the best. I think they're still the best bet for the odds right now, plus 750. Them are Minnesota, because basically, if you're betting against OKC, those will be the two teams I would deal with, because I think the winner comes out of the West.

They took Oklahoma City to seven games last year with Michael Porter Jr. Playing with one arm and a pretty flawed and shallow roster to the point they were like, Hey, Julian Strather, can you have two straight Miracle games for us after doing nothing the whole season for us to survive in this series.

What about Russ, who was just cast aside immediately after, who actually had moments where he played real minutes in that series?

Unsigned. Unsigned.

Well, we didn't talk about that. Is there Houston maybe on that?

I wouldn't do it, but they've lived the experience already in what feels like a completely different league in a completely different universe.

Do you think there were texts? Raphael Stone and Doka and a couple of people. There was a Russell Westbrook. What are your thoughts?

I don't think we're on... I don't think so. I don't think so yet.

Not even a text thread.

It's still too fresh.

Any interesting on Russ? No? Okay.

The thing with Denver that's worrisome is in your rank, not worrisome, but from your rankings perspective is 140. Number one, and then the second guy is 40. That's a lot on number one to do that. They need Jamal Murray to play himself back into the killer playoff guy, Jamal Murray, who was closer to 20 than 40.

And I had Orlando, and I probably had... I had Franz at, I think, 49, which is probably too high. I should lower him into the lower 40s.

That was one of my notes. You have Franz below three spots lower than his teammate Jalen Sugs, which to me is- Yeah, I got to fix that.

But regardless, they have four of the top 50 now with Bane included. So we'll see if the supporting cast can come through. But as you looked at this preliminary list that I laid out- Wait, can we stop for a minute?

Four of the top 50?

For Orlando, yeah.

Franz, Paolo, Bane, and Sugs. Sugs is just no brainer top 50 player for you.

I love Sugs. Now, the Orlando fans are going to be mad at you.

Well, that's fine. I mean, there's 17 of them. They can only do so much damage. I love Sugs. I just wanted to- I love Sugs.

Their season fell apart when he got hurt last year.

No, I love Jion Sugs. He's great. Love everything about him. Love the way he plays. Don't love that he's a career 33% three-point shooter. But more than that, I don't love that he played 48 games, 53 games, 75 games, and 35 games. Can I get a little bit more availability before I just pencil you in as a top 50 player in the world's greatest basketball league? That's all.

Would you rather have him, LaMelo Ball, or Tyler Hero this season?

You're going to make me say it. You're going to make me say it. You're going to make me say it. I'm going with LaMelo Ball. I'm going down with the ship. It's a fun ship to be on. It's neon green, highlighter yellow, whatever it is. Everyone's dressed funny. I'm going down with the LaMelo Ball ship.

I almost put Knipple in the top 100. I thought about it because I think he's going to be immediately good.

I looked for him in the top 20, and I was like, Oh, I guess he's somewhere in the '50s or 60s.

No, somehow he dropped. But they do have four guys with a top 100 case now if Knippel is good, right? So there's at least the signs of something. Now, I have no idea their center is going to be. No idea.

Maybe Knippel, Small Ball 5, just Jack of all trades.

There's a Plumly still on that team. There's only one Plumly left. Saloon has an undersize center. Salon. Salon, whatever his name is. I like calling him Saloon.

They like the Kalkbrenner kid that they drafted from Creighton, I believe. I think he was a defensive player of the air multiple times in whatever conference Creighton is in now. If he went to Creighton, I could be completely wrong. He did go to Creighton.

Yeah. So anyway, with this top 100, to me, Jokaj, SGA, Yannis, Luca, and Edwards have to be the top five in that order. And then the question for me is, is it a top five or a top six? Do you have Wemby in that top tier yet, or Do you want to see him play a full season and be on a team that's above 500 before you give him top level status?

Well, these are forward-looking rankings, right? The idea is to project for the season. This season. I'm ready to put him in in the top six tier. I just think if I'm projecting forward what he's going to be this year and what the Spurs can be this year, I'm going to put him in there. He's already going to be, by some order of magnitude, the most destructive and defensive force in the NBA. And so that's like half of the game is played on that end of the floor, and he's single-handedly dominating it at all times. And so I think the offense will come up a tick on every possible metric and in every possible skill. So I'm going. Let's put him in the initial top six tier.

Okay. Because I do feel like then you go into Mitchell and Brunson and Curry and Cade. I just think Wemby's ceiling is just higher than those guys. He could be the destructive kick-ass for us on a really great team. The Dallas Mavericks. So the three teams before we go, the three teams where I'm like, I don't know what to expect this year are Dallas, Boston, and where I think those are the teams with the most floors in the building between the basement and the top floor. And Dallas, if Kyrie can somehow come back and be pretty competent March, April range, and if Flag is as good as I think he's going to be, I think Dallas is going to be really good. And I think they're lurking as us going in March. Like, holy shit, Dallas is good now. So I just think it's notable that their odds were as bad as they were.

I actually quite like their team. I agree with you that they're hard to project. I think they're more a 26, 27 team than a 25, 26 team because you led it with Kyrie. I got to see that first because with Dilo in his spot and the trickle down effect of that to the bench guards, I think they'll be solid and defensively pretty solid, assuming AD stays relatively healthy. I can't get further than that in the West. And also, I just still think that they're going to have to figure this out. We really want to play AD at the four for 75% of his minutes. Do we really think that's a good idea? Because I'm not sure that that's a good idea.

So they play lively or Gaffard with AD and Flag altogether, and they're just like, nobody's doing anything around 15 feet from the basket anymore. And we're getting all the rebounds.

That was the vision when they made the Lukaa trade, among many other visions that were unvealed.

It's so weird that I like it.

I don't mind it. I just think offensively, you got to figure out what Anthony Davis is doing besides spotting up for 18-foot jump shots that no one cares to really defend very hard.

Are we sure he's still on the team in February?

Oh, my God. Well, I do. Given what they did to get him, I think it would be pretty catastrophic for him to not be on the team, even optically.

But they didn't know they were getting Cooper flag when they made the trade.

No, they did not. What are you talking about? That was division. What did he say? The plan is coming to fruition now?

I forgot. Apologies to Nico. Nico did have the vision.

But I will say, I did this whole thing on better and extensions yesterday and how difficult it is to suss these out for guys who are making an enormous amount of money. Ad is not eligible now. Next summer, he is. And I think that becomes one of the most interesting extension cases in the NBA. How do you extend Anthony Davis at age 33 or 32, whatever he's going to be, coming off a 58. 5 million dollar contract, or a 54 million dollar contract, going into a $58 million dollar contract. That's hard, man. That's a big, big decision. I'd be very nervous about that. For a team that didn't want to pay Luca, the Supermax, right? That's one of the reasons they got out of the Luka business is it's just too much money. So what's AD's next contract going to be?

And now Luca's built like the rock. It's just fucking ripped.

I mean, this was all incredibly predictable, right? This is all we said. I didn't have a job when he got traded. I still said it anyway. If this doesn't light a fire under his ass to get in better shape, to get in the best shape he's ever been in, nothing will. And all of a sudden it's like, oh, here he is on the cover of freaking Men's Health. Men's Health, breaking stories. I didn't see that coming.

I loved it.

It's a great PR strategy. You know what? You know who we should go to? Men's Health.

Yeah, who knew? He revived him. I'm very excited for the Luka MVP. I know we'll be talking about all season, but Luka never having won the MVP and still being plus 380 on FanDuel when it feels like he would be the favorite for me. I just don't see a scenario where he's not fucking awesome this season.

I keep hearing this on podcast that she'll not be named. My sneaky, this is a hot take. I think Luka is going to at the center of the MVP discussion. You think so? He's going to be at the center of the MVP discussion? Yeah, obviously.

Also, the best narrative. Giannis at 12 to 1 is not intriguing because he could just single-handly drag Milwaukee to 52 and 30 and have the greatest year he's ever had. And plus now with Thanasus at his side, like a Bird McHale type thing.

It's really interesting because if Luka puts up his normal numbers over, let's say, 75 games, I mean, those top four guys put up stats where it's like, I don't even know what-Yeah, they're like brain breakers. If Jokić averages 30, 10, and 10 and breaks the efficiency records again, it's like you have to come up with a case against him. And Shay to his credit, was so outrageously good last year and matched him in all the metrics that he did it. But it's just like when you're talking about, could Sindorella or MVP, it's like, Could Donovan Mitchell play his way into it? It's like, I love Donovan Mitchell. It's just a different stratosphere of of player.

We saw the best possible MVP campaign from Mitchell last year, and he had no chance. They went 64 games, and he was the best guy in the team. And he wasn't even like... I think one person.

It's like Kade. You and I both love Kade. I've always loved Kade. It's like, he sneaked Maybe that's a sneaky MVP candidate. I'm like, I don't think I like Kade, but that's maybe sneaky fifth ballot spot candidate.

Do you think there... Is there a Malik Beesley getting signed this year, a possibility, where he just sneaks on to a really good team as a wild card? Have you heard anything about that?

I have not heard much, except that I think that there's a lot of frustration from the players union about how this all unfolded, the timing of it, how it was leaked, where it was leaked, and they're trying to figure out exactly what to do about it.

Yeah, because it unquestionably cost him $40 million.

And he's been cleared, but not really cleared, according to the reporting. He's still being... I don't remember what the terminology was, but they're still looking at him, but he's been... I don't know what it was. So I don't know if that haze is still too thick for teams to look at him. But, yeah, look.

Before we go, what awkward pre... We never talked about Boston, Indiana. Let's do it. What's the rush? Let's do it really quick. We talked about Dallas, high ceiling, low floor. Boston, Indiana is weird because we have no idea if they're just going to toss away the season. Halliburton is definitely not coming back. Tatum, who The Celtics are saying he's not coming back, but I don't know. It'll be 10 months, like mid, right after the All-Star break, right around his birthday, which has been floated around in circles about, could he be back on his birthday on March third? That's 10 months from the injury. We've talked in the past about he had the surgery within 10 hours in New York, never flew. This would be the greatest test case for it. Could somebody actually come back And he had the real surgery because there's two ways to do it. Where Dame had the other type of surgery where they do the... It's almost like a patch and you can come back faster, but it's not 100%. I think Clay had that, too. Tatum had, though, we're fixing this. And if you're the Celtics, you can't not think like, well, what happens if he's 100 % in scrimaging in February?

And what are we just going to do? Not play him? So I don't know the answer to that, and I don't think they do either.

I just know I would be nervous bringing a guy off an Achilles tear back, let's say mid-March, optimistically, right? Super optimistically. Be like, hey, we're fighting like hell to get into the in tournament or stay in the play in tournament.

We're in eighth seed.

And if we do that, then we're going to play New York in the first round of the playoffs. That would make me nervous. You know I'm lower on Boston, and I don't know what their over-under is, but I just think their lack of depth has been... Now, they'll turn Minot into something, and Garza will get free reign to just Chuck Threes. I just think their- Garza. Their depth chart is a whole bunch of question marks If you're the six best guys on the team who are good, who are good, one of whom is Anthony Simons. He's like, did the Celtics even want Anthony Simons? I'm not even sure about that.

I flew back from Boston on Saturday night, and I did my first of MBA research on the fight as I watch terrible movies on AMC, or terribly good movies, I should say. What did you see? What did you watch? Movies I've seen a million times. Taken. What was the other one?

I've never seen that.

You've never seen Taken? You have a daughter. It's a must watch if you have a daughter. Why? It's just a guy trying to save his daughter.

But she gets kidnapped. It sounds horrible.

He gets her back. In the end, he kills a thousand Albanians and gets her back. You got to watch it. But yeah, so I laid out the starters in the bench, like the chart. And I don't think... I must have been in denial or lying to myself, but when I actually saw it laid out, I was like, oh, my. I had Bouchet and Hauser in the starting lineup.

Yeah, when you write it down, you're like, Oh, this is what happens.

Schermann playing?

One of your best guy gets hurt, and then we trade two of our other key guys to dump money. Like, yes. And Horford is playing for the Warriors, apparently at some point. It's a lot of atrophy.

Hugo Gonzales might play? You And then Tate him with three question marks. And it's pretty grim. The good thing for them is they have the infrastructure with the style they play and the coaching staff. They have multiple guards that are going to be able to handle the ball shoot. Jalen will take 25 shots a game.

That's what I want to ask you. What do you want to see from Jalen Brown this year? What's the Bill Simmons? This was a loss season from a contention perspective, but we learned X, Y, and Z about Jalen and I'm thrilled about that. What does that look like?

Well, I thought it was interesting. I looked at the FanDuel points per game leader odds you can bet on. So Shay is plus 165, Luka is 5 to 1. Just who's going to lead the league in points per game. And Jalen was 50 to one. If I told you he was going to average 32 a game next season, what would be your reaction to that?

I would say that that's... I mean, 32... What did Shay average? Shay was about there. But I would say that's a lot. I would say 29 would be a realistic high target To go from 23 and 22 the last two years to 32 is even amid this new-What's the highest that he's gotten to? 26, 6, two years ago, three years ago.

Right. Yeah, so 26, 6 in the '23 season, he took 20 shots a game. If you give him four more shots a game and he makes two of them, I'm now at 30.

I mean, and you give him more free throws. He only got the line five times a game that should be higher, too. I mean, look, 50 to It's a great bet. 50 to 1 is a great bet.

From everything we know about Jalen Brown, whether he's right or wrong, he's definitely going to this season going, I've got this until JT comes back. And we've seen it. We saw it in the games when Tatum didn't play. And Jalen Brown is like, Finally. It's like the understudy in the Hamilton production. Like, Finally, I get to be the Lin-Manuel Miranda part. So I don't know. I think they could hang around with three-point shooting. And I've heard that they, oh, watch out, they're in a tank because they have their pick. I just don't think Mizzou is capable of it. The man is a maniac.

My worry about the Jalen Brown scenario you outlined is like, the how does he get there? Is he getting there by just taking a shit ton of shots and you end up? You average 30 on 44 % shooting and 31 % from three and didn't evolve as a playmaker. That's my worry about it. That's not a big worry because- So you want to see him like, the offense is running through him, but he's actually not like, I'm just going to shoot a shitload of shots, and I'm going to actually set up my guards.

We're going to play off me. I'm going to find open shooters. I'm going to play really smart basketball.

I don't think he's going to turn into a 10-assist-a-game guy or even a seven or eight-assist-a-game guy, but like, jack it up a little bit. If he's just taking a bunch of tough mid-range shots the entire season, even more than he usually takes, I'm not sure that that's what I want to see, although he's going to have to do more shooting, obviously.

The Celtics have Bouchet and Garza right now as the center combo with some Kata. The people that cover the team think Kata is going to be the starter. I'll believe that when I see it. But if you compare them to Indiana, who lost Hallibur and Turner, I actually think Indiana is a more likely, fuck it, let's suck this year, candidate, right? Yeah. I mean, that's Jarris Walker will play. So they could maybe... He'll fill a minute somewhere because they didn't have them in the playoffs. But other than that, what else do they do?

Well, they have depth, right? They were deep last year, so that definitely will help them now. And they signed... Jay Huff can play 15 minutes a game. Isaiah Jackson is coming back. They have depth. Furfy. I love just saying furfy. I want furfy.

Little furf.

The furf, man. Furfy. And talk about a maniac coach who's going to just scheme his way to 35 wins on a down year. It's Rick Carlyal. To me, that's the down, the almost boring Indiana prediction is, I don't know what their over-under is. I'd probably take the under because I just think that their entire identity is wrapped up in one guy who's not going to play. But I could see them having a down year and it being like 32 and 50 or something like that. I'm a lower on them. I just think that what they lost is a lot.

Who do you think has a higher over under, Boston or Indiana, for the season?

Boston. Yeah. What is the numbers?

Boston is 41 and a half. Indiana is 37. 5.

That seems right to me on both counts. I would probably take the under on... Well, we're going to do this at some point.

Indiana, 37 and a half. And it could really end up being like 22 60 if they just said, fuck it.

I don't think it can get to... They'd have to organizationally make a decision that Siakam has a fake sprained ankle and trade McDonald and do some stuff because I just think they're going to be tough and nasty and play smart And like, Nemhardt and Siakam are good. That's not a terrible fallback. Like, now we're a 22-win team.

I mean, so they lose Halleburn, right? Obviously, was the top 15 guy. But they are equipped to patch together some of his stats because Shepard, he'll play more. Nemhardt, McDonal. They could patch together some guard stats. The Turner thing, I don't know how they've fixed that with Isiah Jackson and whatever. The counter to that would be Turner was terrible in the finals and was pretty up and down in the playoffs.

Yeah, he's generally an up and down player. I think he'll fit well with Yana. I did like Walker.

Should I buy more Walker stock? I already have a bunch.

I don't think you need to buy that much more. If you have a bunch, I wouldn't I'll keep what I have.

You think Indiana more likely to be like, Yeah, let's throw this year away and wait for our guy to come back?

I don't think either. No, I would say they're less likely because I think they're deeper and their coach might be- Less likely. More of a maniac than even Missoula is about just scheming to win every single possession of every single game.

What TV shows are you watching? Other than the Mets disaster.

Hey, stop. Stop now. We're not out of it yet. What are we watching? We currently, I got to say...

Couldn't get there a task?

No, too violent for my wife. I would say a couple of things.

Number one... Is she a pacifist?

She just doesn't like Violence. It scares her. She's just out on all the violent shows. Violence and unpleasant suspense. She's just like, I'm not spending my leisure time doing that. Wow. Number one on the list right now is the Great British Bake Off. Huge fan. I've seen every I'm a big fan. Great British Bake Off corner might replace Metz corner if the Metz don't make the playoffs. This hurts me a little bit to say. I don't know if you watch this show. It was right in our spousal Venn diagram I am. Only murders in the building charm is wearing off on me.

Never got into it.

I think that's all we got going right now. Am I forgetting?

Are you a morning show family?

No. I'm weirdly Should I be interested? Is it preachy? It seems preachy to me. I don't like preachy.

It is a self-parody of a self-parody of a self-parody. A very enjoyable hour for my wife and I. Lots of jokes. That's probably our number one. We're making jokes the entire time we're watching that show.

Oh, you're making jokes.

The show is not making jokes. We are making jokes. No, the show is very serious, and they make decisions on the show that you just can't fathom.

Speaking of funny, one of the things I just want a show to make me We fucking laugh a lot, and I'm missing that in my life. I want to laugh. I want a joke show. And Joanna Robinson recommended, and we did a whole segment where I was like, Here's what my wife's TV taste is. Here's what mine is. Here are a couple of shows we really love together. Recommend one for us. And her number one draft choice was Party Down. And we did Party Down. Party Down was just rock solid. The highs weren't that high, but the floor was high. It was pretty funny the whole time. Good recommendation, Joanna.

The Porn Party episode is a personal all-timer for me. It's one of the funniest half-hours of the 2000s.

That's a good one. That was a good one. Yeah, that was a good show. I mean, that's a short. There's 20 episodes, and they're all short.

I would test drive Morning Show Season 1 with the wife because it's also like they're doing it during this COVID, me too era, and it's very self-conscious about all the stuff's going, and they're just clumsily blowing through all these crazy story lines. It's about a morning show, but it's a couple of years behind where we are. So right now, they're doing the 2024 Olympics for this season. And they're also going back and commentating on... It's a must watch.

I see it come up.

It's a mess.

I see it come up on the TV as recommended for you or this and that.

I'm always like, Yeah, it could be. It's a mess. It could be. That's all I got going right now.

You're not a bake-off guy?

My wife likes that show. I've never been a cooking show person.

It's like taken... Neither have I. I can't cook, and I don't like cooking, and I sure as hell don't bake. It's just like stepping into a warm bubble bath. It's so pleasant. Just everything about it is so pleasant. I love everybody on the show, even Paul Hollywood, who's the villain of the show. It's just wonderful. It's just a great time.

I want to say Mina Kimes is on that show this year for an episode. I think that's the show she went on. She went on a cook I think that was the show.

There was an American- It hasn't aird yet. There was an American version, like an American knockoff. Same franchise, like same people that maybe... That would be very... If she suddenly appears on the actual Great British Baking Show filmed in a tent in England somewhere, I'm going to go crazy.

Okay. Zack Lo, good to see you. We have your podcast. It's at least twice a week. Sometimes there will be emergency episodes. If you're honest, get straight to the Rockets. You'll probably hear from Zack. You can find it on YouTube as well.

Just dropping that at the end of a podcast.

Who knows? If something crazy happens. Good to see you. It was always always.

Always fun, sir.

All right. I'm here with Chris Ryan, Sean Fentacy. We just did a two-hour rewatchables that is running next Monday for Redford Month. Yeah. But there was a topic I want to talk to you guys about, about Las Vegas. When did you move here?

2012.

When did you move here? 2012. So there was an article today about Las Vegas is doing this big five-day sale. They tweeted out from the... This is not sponsored by Las Vegas, by the way. Big sale, hotels, restaurants, everything off. And the reason they're doing it is because Las Vegas, the tourism has really declined. And I was on a couple of different text threads about this because we all thought it was really interesting. What's going on with Las Vegas? What has changed over the last 30 years? What are the reasons why tourism post-COVID, where all this other stuff, movie theaters are doing great, people are back in sporting events. All normal life stuff feels like it's and Vegas is in bad shape. So why? What's your theories, Ciar?

Gosh, I mean, where do you want to start? I think Vegas is pretty unique in that it's one of the only places you would go to lose more money. And so it's not just the price of the hotel and the price of the restaurants and the price of valet parking and the price of everything, then you are also pricing in, I might get cleaned out and I might not be able to help myself. If you can gamble on sports, at least, pretty much anywhere, and there's obviously friendly games everywhere you want to go, making that trip and chalking up... You can either lose the flight and the hotel, or you can go somewhere nice and not have to lose thousands of dollars gambling. I think people are just making that choice. But there's also a ton of other reasons I could think of.

Sean, you still road trip down there to poker every so often.

Do you go once a year?

I do. For 10 years, I went every November to see friends because one of my best friends lives there. And this is related to some of my thoughts about it. I still think it's fun to go there. I do think it is a little bit hard to gamble in the way that I like to gamble there. And obviously, sports betting has changed a lot, too. So the idea of it being a destination for sports betting has gotten complicated over the years. But the thing that struck me, I'm not saying this is the primary reason, but it is a reason. When the Golden Nights went there and it started to become a destination home for professional sports, it started to feel more like like any other city. When I was driving in a couple of years ago and I saw a Legion on the way in, right when you're coming in into the strip and a Legion is on the left there, and it was a football stadium, and it was like driving into Chicago or driving into Philly. It lost the glamor, the uniqueness that made Vegas, Vegas, where Vegas was really only one thing.

You didn't even really think about Vegas as a place where people lived when you visited. You visited and you were like, Everybody here is in a hotel, and we're gambling in casinos.

I remember hearing somebody lived in Vegas. I'm like, What? They live in Summerland. What? Every day they're here, how do they survive?

But when a city has sports teams, it's a town. It's a residential place. It's a place where there is a fandom. There's a community of people that live there. There's nothing wrong with it being coming a community, but it feels different. It gives it a different energy, and it feels like a factor as to why it's not as unique or special to go there as maybe it was 10 or 50 years ago.

Yeah, I have so many... I think those are both really good reasons. I also feel like... Because I started going there mid '90s, right? And it was... I'm not saying it was underground, but it was just you went, you shared a hotel room with two people or four people, you didn't really care about where you ate at all. It's like, let's go get two slices of pizza.

Let's go the buffet is cheap. Or even if you're treating yourself, you're going to get a steak.

Yeah, for people in their 20s and their 30s, the ancillary stuff never mattered. It was like, where are we gambling? How much blackjack are we playing? Are we playing poker? Are we playing craps? All your money went toward the gambling part, at least for my groups or everything I saw. And nobody was ever like, we got to go to Rios tonight. I heard it's awesome. You didn't think that way. You didn't think like, we're in this three-hour dinner from 8: 00 to 11: 00.

How about we're going to go see Adele? You know what I mean?

Now, granted, I am in a very small... I was a giant sports fan. We would go. We really wanted to just gamble. But we never cared about the other stuff. We maybe ride the roller coaster once.

I think people would go and they would want to go see Wayne Newton or like when we went- Older people, not the people in their 20s or 30s were going for specific things.

It's like, I can gamble on sports here. I can play blackjack with my friends here. I can play poker. I can play craps.

Well, the other thing I started noticing probably maybe 20 years ago is that the casinos were turning into malls. And so there were really these big shopping centers that were coming in there. And a lot of those spaces are really nice. But it's like, why? I'm not going to go to the Prada store when I'm at a casino. I'm in a casino to play cards. The only reason I'm there is to drink, see my friends, play cards, maybe swim in the pool and eat at the buffet. That's all I'm really going to do. Even as... Forget about my 20s and my 40s, that's all I care about. But it is more of a... It's like a glamor, high-toned destination in a way, but it is still in the middle of the desert. So it doesn't really make sense as like, why would you go? Wouldn't you go to Hawaii if you were trying to have a vacation like that? Like a nice vacation.

I think now it's like if you want to party, people go to New Orleans or Austin or Nashville or all sorts of places. Miami has had two or three peaks in the time that Vegas was the destination of all bachelor parties and going clubbing and also gambling.

Well, now it's like there's the F1 weekend, there's the sports teams that are there, there's NBA Summer League, there's then NBA, the actual like the Cup thing. And MLB is going to be there, too. Big boxing, UFC, MLB is going to be there, too. Wnba is there. So there's sports and big stuff happening constantly, which is better if you live there than if you're visiting. If I'm visiting... I've always wondered this. You go for an NBA Cup, right? Or Summer League, yeah. Or Summer League, whatever. We went there for 2018, 2019, and we did a dinner, right? You have this huge dinner, you're stuffed. It's not the mood. You're like, Yeah, now let's go gamble. I just wonder, did something shift where the gambling became ancillary? And then the books and the places realized that. And that's when they started shifting the odds against the 6 to 5 payouts for Blackjack. And I just feel like it's harder to win. It's weird as that sounds. I have much more fun gambling in New Orleans. In New Orleans, I feel like I might actually win. In Vegas, I feel like I'm this cog in the machine that's just going to get crushed.

Yeah, I'm not really such an expert on all of the table games there, but it does feel like it's easier to get crushed now than it did in the past.

Yeah, I'm telling you, I don't think luck turns that much over 30 years. There was more fun. Now it just seems like They just want you to lose money and get you the fuck out of it.

I don't know if this is... We don't have to get into a huge discussion about how much private equity is bought into these places and what returns they want on investment. But I do think in the last couple of years, especially, since COVID, when everything pretty much contactless with payments, I wonder if they are pumping people more now because of just tap your card, just tap your card, just tap your card. You want to go do this, do this, just tap. I remember the first time we went to Vegas together and I was like, I had money in an envelope. I was like, if I tear this envelope open, that's it. That's all the cash I'm going to spend gambling tonight or something like that. Now we have reached this just forget about it until tomorrow. Maybe it's tomorrow for a lot of people. And they're like, I can't fucking afford to go to Vegas. Because the big thing about all these events in this country now, when you go... I went to the Dodgers this week. It was an awesome time. Went to the Philly's Dodgers. I got fucking pumped, man. It's like, 40 bucks for two beers, another 35 for hot dogs and peanuts.

And then that's not even parking and everything else.

And you're just like- That's Blu-ray money.

Yeah, but you're also just like- It's like seven Blu-reys. Dude, that's several hundred dollars not counting the tickets. That's crazy. It's baseball. The game's not even that long anymore.

It's two and a half hour.

It's a good example of... I feel like Vegas was seen, especially if you lived on the West Coast, as a cheap vacation. And you might end up losing a lot of money.

But you could drive there.

But staying there and driving there and the accommodations. Now things are just very elevated. There's some amazing hotels and amazing restaurants in Vegas now. Vegas has gotten really, really tony.

I would say it's one of the best restaurant locations in the world at this point. It's amazing.

It wasn't the whole allure for a while there? You go and if you're gambling, the drinks are comped. If you stick around long enough, you'll get a comp dinner or breakfast ticket, right?

Yeah, it was just way more underground. The sportsbook piece can't be understated either because I don't know how many states have legalized gambling now where you can bet somewhere. The first time, I can't remember if it was '95 or '96, the first time we went, that was the number I wanted to go. I was like, We're going to go and we're going to put... And then we'll watch the game in the sportsbook, and then we'll make the money, and then we'll put that on something. That was all we wanted to do is stay in that sportsbook for two days and watch all the games. Now, it's like, there's nothing special about that now.

People would go from March Madness or the first week of NFL playoffs or whatever. Now it's like guys sitting at a bar, ambiently betting women's tennis. Putting parlays on 19 college football games on a random Saturday.

When I did my second week My second book, which ended up being about basketball, I almost did a Vegas book as my second book. Then I almost did it again as the book after. I felt like something shifted from the mid-2000s, even to the early 2010s, where I'm like, this isn't as good of an idea for a book anymore. Vegas had this... I used to write about it a lot, especially on my old website. That was some of the pieces that really got the website moving with audience. And then when I got to ESPN, same thing of this whole scene in Vegas. Basically, you have two days, you have a certain amount of money. You have this anvil hanging over your head the whole time. You can only go to the ATM one time a day.

The swingers thing where they embarrass themselves. But that was aspirational to me. When I saw that, even though those guys were buffoons, I was like, this is so cool. They just drive there. That's amazing. I was there in April for CinemaCon, and we were... And cinema at night is so great for me because I can just wander around, play cards. We sat at the sportsbook, me and Craig and Amanda and Matt Bellany. We sat at the sportsbook for an hour and a half waiting to go see David Copperfield. We're going to go see Copperfield. Never seen him before. It was dead. It was a Thursday night in April So you've got NBA. Mlb has just started and you've got college sports on. And there were four people there.

I remember when they built Mandalay, and Mandalay seemed like the future. I had this huge sportsbook, Big Casino, just felt very modern. And you could see all of a sudden they were... I can't remember when Paris went up, but the casinos just got way better. We stayed Treasure Island in the mid '90s, and then gradually things got better. Then there was this moment when they started the Whatever Happens in Vegas ads. And enough people were talking about the culture of it that something really happened. I think it peaks with the hangover. In 2009, then Vegas is such a big part of that movie, and It was the peak. Now, if you did a movie in Vegas, I don't even think it would be important that it was in Vegas. I'm like, Oh, there's Vegas.

I wonder whether or not there is... If you think of Vegas as a musical artist or a band, and there's always the question that they face where it's like, do you want your audience to get older with you or do you want to leave them behind? If you're talking about your guys, specifically, because of Vegas, it's not been a huge part of my life. But for you guys, it's like there There was the degenerate gambling part. Then there was the what happens in Vegas and it's fun to do a bachelor party there. Now it's almost like bring your whole family to Vegas. But you can't really do that. You wouldn't do that. You would take them to Disney World. You wouldn't want your little kid at the win.

Me and Sal and our fans, we did a Vegas trip in '06. It was this whole different side of Vegas where it's like, oh, they have stroller ramps and shit like that. It I think it's fun, but I think it was probably more fun for Sal and I. Where these wheelchair ramps can also be stroller ramps. I think it was more fun for Sal and I. Maybe not as much fun for the wives, but I think Vegas is a little more built toward it now. There's another piece of this now about people in their 20s and 30s and what they're doing day to day and whether you need to go to a place like Vegas in the same way that you did when I was in my mid-20s and 1995, where it was like we didn't have a shitload of options for things to do other than to just go out where you were. It's like, well, we're going to Vegas. Now it's like, I don't know. I just wonder, do people in their 20s, do they want to go out and just gamble for 10 I mean, I think even beyond the generalization of it, it's just way cheaper to go to New Orleans.

If you were going to do a party trip.

Is there just more options now? Is there more stuff to do?

I think Vegas has never actually had more that you can do in Vegas, but it does take a little bit of the spotlight off of the gaming. I remember very well in 2019, I had a meet up with a lot of friends in Vegas. It was basically like my high school reunion, me and 10 guys. I vividly remember it was 8: 00 PM, we'd ate dinner, grabbed a drink, and we were like, Let's go gamble for a few hours before we do whatever happens after that. And six of us went to go play Pygao, and we got absolutely scull fucked by a dealer. It sounds like an amazing day. We just got absolutely completely annihilated. And piegow, the whole thing with piegow is like, it's very communal, it's low stakes. You should be able to sit at a piegow table and play for an hour, two hours if you want, and only lose $100 or gain $100 or whatever. And we just got our guts ripped out. And I remember feeling like maybe we shouldn't gamble for another 24 hours after that, after guys were dropping $700 at a pie gow table. And it was deflating.

It wasn't fun. And then now, ever since then, all those guys had kids, and now nobody goes to Vegas anymore. That's the other thing that happened. But if it's ever going to make a comeback, it's not going to be defined as a gambling trip, I don't think. It's going to be a different version. It's going to be like, let's go eat at great restaurants and go to the pool with our kids.

This pop star has a residency.

Exactly. Go see Selena Gomez.

I just think it has to decide. Is it for degenerates or for everyone? Is it for this is my secret shame or this is what I look forward to all year? It's my weekend.

Honestly, I think Vegas already decided. I think that's part of the problem. They want to be for They want to have the best restaurants and the best entertainers. The Sphere is a huge piece of this. Now, you go to Vegas for the experience of The Sphere, instead of 25 years ago, you went because it's like, I just want to play Black Jack with my buddy Jim Grady for eight straight hours. And that's what we want to do. Now, it's like, We're going to The Sphere because so and so is playing there. And then we're going to go to the... The Russellmania is two days later. We'll do that.

And Chang has a restaurant there. Yeah.

Yeah, it's just different.

A friend of mine is pitching a project to The Sphere here right now, and he was telling me about it, and it sounds like a really cool thing. I hope it happens for him. But that becoming a billion dollar industry, too, it just takes all of the attention off of the other things that you think of as Vegas being Vegas. The idea of going to Vegas to go watch a movie in a giant circle is crazy, but people are doing it.

I wonder how many people who go to the sphere or go, say, to a UFC fight, then also gamble. I wonder how many, how it's reoriented.

Ufc is interesting because UFC ends around... It's like 11? Starts 7: 00 to 10: 00. Basically, you're out of there. It's like 10: 30 at night. At that point, you're either doing late dinner or you're just going to gamble. But either way, it's just not what it would have been 30 years ago. Same thing for when the NBA Cup was there.

We need to get another You house, Sal and Chang session, though, at the tables. I do feel like that's some of the all-time best BS pod.

That was some of the best content we ever But I feel like even that feels like it's from another era.

I still feel like I was at the Blue Note watching guys play like when I watched him and Shay.

I think Vegas would probably say, This is what we wanted. We have way nicer casinos. We have a million restaurants. We have all these different teams and all these different places to see live events. We had to elevate everything we're doing. And at the same time, they're having a massive sale right now to get people to come because tourism is way down. So something got broken, and I don't even really know what the answer is.

There are other factors. I mean, there was a terrible shooting there that happened. That chilled a lot for a little while. I don't know. I don't really believe in the younger people don't want community thing, though. I think it's the opposite. And gambling, that's a fun road trip to take with your friends to go for 48 hours and go six, eight people and go have fun. But it might just be too expensive is really what it might come down That's what I think it is. It might just be like, I can't afford to stay in these hotels.

That would be my number one reason. And it's hidden costs. It's like the things where you're just like, whoa, like $65 a day to a valet park or whatever. I'm sure that there are more affordable hotels that I'm thinking of that have better deals.

I'm just saying- That's why I led with what it cost when we used to go. We would go four to a room. I told this story before. I always used to share a bed with my buddy Bish because we had mastered how to never have our bodies touch ever. I went one way, he went the other way. But we...

Ciar likes to go dick to dick. That's what I say.

Ciar goes face to face. But all we were thinking about with everything other than the gambling was how to save as much money as possible. We never wanted to spend more than $10 on dinner. We were like, Oh, that place has chicken. It was all the money went toward not being there at one in the morning out of money while our friends were still playing, being like, Well, what the fuck am I going to do now? I'm getting my limit.

But you were in a strain of degenerate, where it was like, this is the most important thing in the world.

It really was. He built an oasis in the desert. He did.

He did.

He came my oasis.

You did. You were like Ace Rothstein in Casino.

You said you wonder if young people, they don't care about having the community I think they do. No, I think they do. I think they do. I just think it shouldn't be too expensive. But I think they can find it in better ways.

Yeah, exactly.

You can find a community fucking online with people you didn't even meet it. Us going to Vegas, all hanging out together, and then all the stories we would have from all the crazy dealers and the crazy person that sat at the table, we would be talking about it for three weeks after. Now, I mean, there's so many dopamine fixes you can get in 2025 online and however else. I don't think it's the same.

I think you hit on something that is, how do I make this sound not like I've discovered gold or something. But when I was a teenager and I'd never been to Vegas, we never took a family vacation to Vegas. I had an idea of what Vegas was like in my head. And it probably It was more like Casino. It was like, we're going to the Flamingo. We're wearing suits. And Don Rickles is there and he's performing. The rat pack is around. And then you get to Vegas and it is not that. It's not glamorous in the 2000s and in the 2010s. It is a little bit more broken down and has a charm to it that you can get really interested in. You can discover where are the good places to eat and where are the good places to go, what are the right rooms for the games that you like to play. And then it did start to flip, guess right around the 2010s, where it started to get more elevated, and you lost a little bit of that social culture that was an interesting part of it. Conversely, if you're a kid now, you can see what everything is like online.

Even just the Yelp alone reveals what those hidden worlds. When we were in the 1990s, I had Incarta, and that's how I learned information on my computer. There were no photos or reviews, let alone YouTube and tours. The way that you can conquer Disney World now on YouTube, and they just show you every single thing inside of it. Yeah, it's a good plan. When you went to Disney World when you were five, you were like, is this place actually magic?

But crucially, Disney now is like, don't worry about any of that stuff because if you pay enough, you can skip the line. And I think that that is another thing where people are like, is there any limit to how much I'll get charged to do something that used to just be, you pay this thing to get in the gate and then everything inside is more or less set up fairly for you? I mean, things were always expensive, but I do think that there's something weird about When you look at your bill from... You stay at one of the hotels, you're just like, what the fuck are all these towel fees and resort fees and parking fees? And you're just like, I didn't use this parking. Why am I getting charged for this? Or something like that. There's just a lot of crazy stuff there.

All the porn you ordered.

That's right.

I was like, And this is all part of my platform when I become the governor of Nevada. That's right. I wish I had a better answer for what Vegas should do, but I think they're so far down the road with what they became. I I don't know if there's a way to unwind this.

It should just all be the sphere. They should just go the sphere on top of it.

They might just have to triple down and definitely get an NBA team. Maybe it's not a destination place as much as a place you actually live.

Then it's just Houston. But I think that's what's happening.

Have you been to a Raiders game there?

Yeah, I've been there a bunch of times. I've seen Russellmania there.

Is there any vibe at the Raiders games? Is there any atmosphere?

You know what? I've been to the Raiders Arena. I haven't been to a Raiders game, but I've been to Russellmania there. I went to summer There's a Super Slam there.

It looks like an awesome stadium. I'd love to go.

The arena is great. I think a fair amount of people moved there in the last five years. I think it'll continue to grow. I'm sure in 15 years, it might be, like you said, a Houston place, but it's in a weird moment of transition.

It's so funny. My buddy Tony, who's lived there for years and years, and we went to high school together, and he's been a lawyer there for over a decade. He just got engaged. Shout out to Tony. Congratulations. To wait a long time. That's Tony.

Love Tony. He did it.

Him getting engaged is a little mini metaphor for Vegas. It's like he finally settled down. I feel like the city has settled down. It's like we're done being the crazy uncle. We're ready to be a normal American.

We're the dead in company.

Also, maybe in the 2020s, we did want a crazy uncle anymore. I wanted a crazy uncle, but maybe most people- What's the candidate for next great crazy uncle city?

What could just go absolutely apes?

It's pieces of Vegas, but it'll never be. People, Nashville, I think, has gotten a lot of steam. I still New Orleans is still Awesome. That's the funny thing about New Orleans, compared to Vegas, I feel like New Orleans is exactly the same from when I was there for the Pats Super Bowl. Just same restaurants, the food's the same, the casinos in that one spot in the middle. When I go, I almost feel like in a good way, I'm going back to a time warp of like, Oh, I fucking love New Orleans. When I go back to Vegas, I'm always noticing stuff they added.

You have sensory overload.

How chaotic it was. There's just the Every single chef has a restaurant there now, including our friend Chang as a couple. And they're just adding, adding, adding. They built a fucking F1 track. They're going to have this this awesome basketball arena and on and on it goes. So to me, it's less of a destination and more like, maybe you should just actually live there. If you live there, you're not going to gamble as much, which is why they're giving sales.

That's because you turn into a Martian because it's 115 degrees there. I do.

Part of me...

That's why I go on November, though. The weather is on believable in November. It's also just beautiful to be there.

What's your maximum amount of time you can spend in Vegas in any one trip?

When we went for cinema, it was three and a half days. And I was like, this is a long trip. I got to get out of here.

30 hours, like 36 hours.

I did, I think, six days once when my first year for Page 2, right as my column was taking off, I convinced them to send me for the Rockman Lewis sequel fight. And it was 2001. I went early. I covered the fight. I'd always wanted to cover a fight like a real writer and did the whole thing, went to the fight. But that weekend, my boys came, and we had all a Vegas weekend. Then I stayed.

Did you charge Skipper for that?

It was the first time I was like, Oh, I can use- I got dinner.

…

This Disney money. I can charge stuff.

John Walsh is like, Bill, I have some questions.

I'm seeing a Speermann Rhino charge here.

What is this? My son had bronchitis. The Pats played the Rams. It was the year the 2001 Pats won the Super Bowl. Played the Rams. We lost, but we hung. I watched them in a sportsbook. I'm just coughing up oysters. It was day five, and I was like, I might die. Because I had done Vegas the way you would do it if you're there for two days for five straight. I can handle.

Do you feel like if... One thing I have noticed is it does feel healthier in the casinos now than it did.

Way less cigarettes smoke. Yeah. Yeah, no question. Sorry, CR.

No, it's all right. All the guys who go for Summer League who are like, I've been here 13 days, they all turn into Martin Sheehan in Apocalypse now. They're all just like, Day 10. I can't believe I'm still in the fucking Aria.

The horror.

I am really nostalgic for the old, even though Even in that scene in Swingers, that really was what going to Vegas was like. You went in, it was super boring to get there. You got there. It was great. It was low-scale discounty. Then there was a couple of aspirational casinos, like Someday We'll Gamble There. I don't know if that still exists.

I think Sean drove me out there once, and I think in my mind, I still thought it because in Swingers, it's like they leave and then, yeah, there's the we're not there yet scene, but it feels like it takes place in an evening. And we drove out there. The drive back was even worse because you drive into the sun driving back. And we just listened to Rage Against the Machine, and I was like, I'm never driving again. I'm flying next time.

Yeah, I still like to drive. It's a sneaky long drive, though. Yeah. Not if you're Bill Simmons.

No, that's true. Wait, aren't you guys both- 329 was my record. What's your record?

It's in that zone. It's in that realm.

You like to time it.

It's like I'm watching F1 right here.

You get really lucky when it goes from three lanes to two.

That's also if you go at night, that's better, obviously. If you try to leave at 9: 00 AM on a Sunday, it's hell.

No, you either have to leave from LA 9: 00 9: 30 AM or late. 8: 00 PM.

9: 00 PM.

Because if you're heading the traffic for mush hour either way at any point. But we'll see.

I'm not giving it up, though.

How about this, Vegas? Come invite us and let us help you with some ideas. We're available.

I'm willing to take Adele's spot.

I think if they hired us to be like, All right, give us your pitch. What are we doing wrong? What are we missing? You're not giving stuff for the people in their 20s and 30s who don't have a shitload of money, who want to go for the weekend and don't want to get bankrupt because they can't afford to go to Reyes.

I bet that there is a wellness bar and hot yoga and stuff like that. But people are like, I don't come to Vegas to get well.

You would help design the AI-assisted virtual porn chambers, though.

Yeah, exactly.

The sports books are not going to be the same. What can you do? I mean, That's over. That's a loss.

That's over.

It'll just never be the- The Ringer 107 has replaced that, unfortunately. Well, unfortunately for the pics we've had, too. Sean, Chris, great to see you guys. Thanks, Phil. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Zack Lo. Thanks to Sean and Chris as Well, thanks to Gahal and Eduardo. I'm going to be back on Thursday with one more podcast. We'll do a lot of football, and I got to dig myself out of a pretty brutal start to the gambling season. I'm not worried. I've We've had our backs a while before. We'll be fine. But I will see you on Thursday.

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