Transcript of NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West With Zach Lowe and Joe House

The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where we put up a new episode of the Rewatchables on Monday night. We did Sneakers as part of Robert Redford Month. We have one more Redford movie coming next week. We're going to do quiz show. I think we have to do a horror movie for the last week of October. I think one more Redford Month movie and then a horror movie. Prestige TV podcast Task episode 6. That is up now with me and Joanna Robinson, breaking it down. The season finale is on Sunday. We have a little announcement with The Ringer. We are going to be in January moving some of our podcast. They're still going to be on Spotify. They're still going to be on all platforms. There's still going to be a video podcast on Spotify, but we are also going to be moving the video to Netflix as part of their experiment/initiative with video podcast. So very excited about that. This podcast will eventually be able to be watched on Netflix as well as the rewatchables and a bunch of other Ringer stuff.

We announced the first wave. Hopefully, there's more to come, and we're very excited to team up with that. There's going to be some big upgrades all the way around from a production standpoint. You've already seen some of them. So very excited about that. Very excited for this Over Under podcast we're about to do. We've done this every year. I think it's year 16. Joe House has been a staple since we've done it. Zack Lo is going to join us this year. This is part one. Doing the West. We get guests the Over Under. They do win totals, FanDuel has them. Any place where you bet, but we love FanDuel. Win totals for the season for each team. We go over or we go under, and we talk about every team, and we have some laughs, we have some fun, and it's about to happen. We're going to take a break. Pearl Jam, and then The West. Over Under is next. This is the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on. Fandool is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live.

Your way, so you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast, it's easy to use, best of all. When you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts, recently. Guess what I did? Use Fandool. Super fun. Download the Fandool app or go to fandil. Com/bs to get started. Must be 21 plus President Select States, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Get in a promo call, win a hundred game, or visit rg-help. Com. Call 888-789-777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut. All right, the time is here. Mda Over Under. Joe House is here. We We first did this on the BS report on ESPN in 2010. Wow. Yeah. I looked it up. Fifteen years. Yeah. Somebody on YouTube has all the old BS Report podcast. 2010, so that would make it I'm bad at math.

Fifteen.

If we're inclusive, it's 16.

So it's our 16.

This is why we have Zack Lo.

Zack Lo is here. Never has been on the Over Under's pod. In fact, you and Joe House have never done a podcast.

This is it. Is that true? We're doing it. Amazing. I'm doing it.

I have one goal. I told Zack already. I want him to say something bad about somebody. That's my goal for this podcast, to get Zack to say something bad about somebody.

I don't know. Zack looks tan, rested. I don't know. But ready to roll. I'm ready to go.

I'm excited.

Dare I say, One of the most fun over underseasons we've ever had. There's so much flux. There's so many teams you could make a case for either way, just being either way better than people think or way worse. And yet we're going to start with the West. This is part one. And we're going to start with the Oklahoma City Thunder, who won the title last year, Zack, and are somehow not that exciting to talk about. I just think they're going to be awesome again, and I don't really have a lot of thunder takes. Why wouldn't they be awesome again? What would be the case against it?

Well, they're going to be awesome. There's no question about that. They have some injuries. Jalen Williams, how quickly is he going to be ready to start the season? Good Jelen Williams. Topich had some surgery. Kenrich Williams.

It wasn't some surgery. I don't want to get into the details. How did you research the testicular Topich surgery?

I did not. I felt like it was okay.

I did not either. I just saw the timetable. But there's no question they're going to be awesome. They're the favorites to win the title. The question is 62 and a half. It's a pretty giant number.

62 and a half wins house, minus 340 for the division, plus 130 for the conference, and plus 210 for the title. Minus 210 for the one seed on FanDuel, if you're interested in that one. House, only 11 teams, I think in the last 30 30 years or something have been over 60 wins for an over-under. And I think it's eight and three where it's been under. Most recently was the Warriors of 2019. We were dumbfounded by this last night. Over-under of 67 and a half for them. That was the year Durant got hurt. But did you think this was too high?

It's just a tad too high, and it's just because of the math aspect of it. It's what you just described. We know what history tells us about teams that come in having won the title. Every team in the league circles that game like, Hey, Oklahoma City is in town. Let's give a good effort here. Let's see how we match up against the champs. I don't feel like it's disrespectful to say that they win '61 or '62 games. It's still an awesome season. They're still an awesome team. They should be the one seed. They should win the conference. But I am not going to bite down too hard on this one.

They would have to go six wins worse to go under because they were 68 and 14 last year. They had a plus 12. 7 net last year.

So best in the history of the NBA.

I don't know why that would be considerably worse. I just don't see how they're not a mid-60s team unless there's some major injury, but we could say that about any good team.

Their expected wins last year were 69, according to Cleaning the Glass. So you have to do the thing where it's like, how many did you win? Were you lucky? Were you unlucky? They're flat out, basically a 70 win team.

We'll be talking about that during the Detroit section in part two.

Wow. Just flashing all the way ahead. Wow.

Just 46 wins, but was it?

Is this the part where I say what I think is going to happen? You have the cadence for this over-under thing. You're going under, it sounds like.

Let me set you up.

Okay.

In 2002, they went 24. In 2023, they went 40. In 2024, 57. And in 2025, 68. So if you do the math, they're going to win 77 games this year by those. So they're going to go 77 and five. This is how it's going to go. I'm going over. What are you doing?

I'm going aggressively over.

Oh, wow. Aggresibly over. I didn't even know that was an option. I just thought we were doing overs.

So no doing aggressively overs. I just think they're so good and so deep, and their defense is so much better than everybody else's. How many games are they going to be underdogs in the entire year? On the road against Denver.

Well, the other thing is they can sit dudes and it doesn't matter. It's like, Oh, we'll just put this guy in instead. It'll be fine.

And they seem like the team... But first of all, they won 68 with Chet missing half the season, Hardenstein missing Almost half the season. Maybe they suffered some other injuries this year. I just think they walk into every game with a defense. It's like we can play a shitty offensive game and still win, and the floor is so high. And they do strike me as a team that is going to like what you said. Like, Oh, you're going to give us your best shot? Come at us. We're young. We're not this old, creaky champion. Actually, we like being the hunted. We like kicking the shit out of everybody on defense. We want history. I think 70 wins is in play if they're healthy.

So the case for this house would be the 1992 Bulls, who went 67 and 50 in the year after they won the title, were young like this team, had that were still ascending, had Pippin going up a level, which you can make the case, maybe Jalen Williams or Chet or both this year.

Chet, big time.

I'm with you. I think they have a chance to be better. The reason I mentioned this is you can bet on this house if you think the OKC Thunder can win 70 games. What do you think the odds are on Fandil?

Probably not great. You know what I mean? Probably 3-1, something like that.

I was going to go longer than that.

How about plus 680?

Oh, wow. Now that you have my attention.

I was going to say 12 to 1 or something like that.

Could they win 70 games? Yeah. Has not happened a lot. I think the plus 680, I thought was high.

Out of all the bets that we've talked about so far, that That's the one that's got my attention. Are you over or under? I'm over now. Okay.

Wow. Just like that.

No, he just had to be talked into it.

Because 63 is still over. I was finally the first in last year.

I was stunned by how little I thought about a number this big. It was like, over. What do I feel bad? If they win 61 games, I still feel good. '60 games are still awesome. I'm going over.

Yeah, 63. One other thing with these guys, some assets to trade if they wanted to get frisky. They have all the draft pics, which aren't quite as good as they felt like they were three years ago, they're still all right. They have some Philly stuff. They have some Utah stuff that's protected. They have some swap stuff with the Clippers. Was in Houston. They have some Denver pics that I'm not too excited about because they have Jokuj. They have a 2028 swap with Dallas. That was way more exciting before Dallas with 1. 8% odds, won the Cooper flag letter.

Let's not talk about that.

But they have stuff. They can just be like, Here's four first. We want to upgrade this spot and do it. I wanted to do one question for each team beyond just the over-under. Is SGA the most untradable guy in the league for you right now? How many people would you put over him? We're doing trade value rankings because I had him three when I did my list in January. I had Jokuj ahead of him and I had Wemby. He's 27 years old. He is MVP, Finals MVP. He's 31, 6, and 5 the last three seasons. I wrote down, he's independent movie, Kobe, basically. He's Kobe, but it's a lower budget with the director who did for scale and got a bunch of actors, and they made it for 2 million and took it right to Cann.

Yeah, he's not a blockbuster.

Even Shay did this GQ interview, like cover story, and had quotes it in. It's like, whoa, Shay being interviewed. He's just like, we don't know anything about him, and I think he likes it that way.

No. I mean, look, it's tempting to say Shay, Wemby, and Jokuj are completely untradable, and yet we are eight months removed from Luka Donchik getting traded, like inexplicably to the Lakers. But I think it's just Wemby. If you're going to rank them all, I think Wemby has to be the number one most untradable.

Would you put him over Jokuj house?

Wow, that's great.

I think Wemby is the one, but I think- He's so young. Jokuj versus Shay is a really good argument now because Jokuj is now in his 30s. So you're getting basically three extra apex years from Shay. Although maybe with the way Jokuj moves, he could just play until he's 55. It's possible.

His body looks like he's going to be able to withstand it.

I still have Joker and Wemby over him. Wemby won Joker, too. I think Wemby is one now, especially after the preseason game we watched last night. It was like, I think Wemby is now our number one. Okay, we're all over for OKC. Next one, ironically, the Denver Nuggets. Their over-under is 53. 5. They are plus 470 for the conference plus 750 for the title, 6 to 1 to be our one seed. And unlike OKC, which basically returned the same team, they dumped Porter and Sarij and Russell Westbrook. Good joke on the internet this about Russell Westbrook might change his name to Intetacunpo to see if he can get signed by a team. Mean, funny. It really checked all my boxes.

It's mean to everybody. It's mean to everybody involved.

Everybody's insult. Multiple people get insulted with that joke. They added Cam Johnson, huge fan. Bruce Brown, who really piqued with those guys and then was adrift for a couple of years. Now back, Jonas Valenzschenis, who is a weird agent situation over the summer. Unclear if he wanted to put Denver or not, but he's there. Then Tim Hardaway Jr. Plus Holmes is coming back. This is the deepest bench they've ever had. Zack, this is the best Nuggets team I think Jokuj has ever had. Is that fair to say?

It's in play. It could be the best regular season team they've ever had for sure.

What would be another one for you?

You're the one. The year that won the title would be with Bruce Brown and KCP and other guys who Jeff Green was still a viable player.

So they went seven deep that year?

Probably a little deeper than that. Seven and a half. Probably a little deeper than that. This is on par or better than that as a regular season team. We'll see how the young guys develop. I've always liked Strauher, but it's never really happened. I like Payton Watson. Can you make enough threes? If some of the bench young guys hit, like Picket is interesting. It's like an Andre Miller clone, but not nearly as good, but the big, bulky point guard guy.

It's interesting to watch somebody try to walk across traffic. Interesting or interesting?

One of these young guys is going to pop a little bit at some point. How much of the Bruce Brown slump was just like, I'm long in for Jokić. I miss Jokuj. I made a mistake or I I make a mistake, I got paid. But yeah, it's on the table. This is the deepest and best regular season Nuggets team.

What I like about this team house, they can bring in dudes that aren't as good as their starters, but can replicate a lot of stuff that those guys... When Balanchun is comes in, you can run offense through him for five minutes. You had him in Washington. Bruce Brown comes in, he can pretend to be Aaron Gordon for a couple of minutes. Hardaway can come in. He can pretend to be Cam Johnson for a couple of minutes. The issue I had within the last couple of years is the guys that were bringing in the bench, it's almost like an NFL team where it's like, here's Lamar Jackson's backup, a guy who's a completely different quarterback than him. And it's like, why don't you just have a running quarterback? Anyway, what do you think of the Nuggets?

I absolutely adore them. I'm so happy for the Joker to have this cast at this moment after what we all saw the last couple of years, them being quality-wise as good as any team in the league, them being able to stand up in a series to any team in the league, and then they just get to that threshold moment, and they just didn't have the depth. They didn't have the depth against Minnesota. And still almost went. That's right. Yes, this is the thing. So I absolutely We've been clamoring for this for how long now? Years, right? You know who else was clamoring for it? Mike Epping-Malone, who gets to watch it on television this season because him and Calvin Booth couldn't get on the same page, right, Zack?

Yeah. So they cleared out the cloud of dysfunction, those hanging over the organization. David Adleman is the new coach. Everyone seems to like him. He's doing creative stuff in the preseason. They're playing zone, they're playing the centers together.

Some people are calling him Dave.

Is that on the table, Dave?

He's like, he's David Adleman, but now they're so comfortable with him. There's a couple of Dave.

He's Dave to me.

He's doing the opposite of Malone, who went from Mike Malone to Michael Malone. He's going long to short. It's a culture shift. Dave Adleman.

It's all across the board for them.

Maybe one or two Davies.

You can't go Davy. Davy. Were you on a- Quick question, Davy, on the zone defense you're in in the third quarter.

Were you on a side in the cloud of dysfunction or were you just- I was on the side of like, I can't believe you two.

I can't believe it got this bad. The team is good. They won a title. How does it get this bad? Why did it get this bad? Valenzudis is interesting because he's become a journeyman now. He's been all over the Western Conference and a little bit in Washington, Toronto, obviously. I just think When Jokuj would go out of games, they would have just no identity. It was like, if Jamal Murray doesn't make a crazy step back 20 footers, we're just not going to score.

You were holding on for your life for five minutes.

Jv is at least like, I can dump it to him in the post kill time and feel like I'm not just desperately grasping at straws to score points.

I was blown away by the short stint that he enjoyed in Washington.

I loved him.

Well, I got lucky enough to sit low enough at a couple of games in Washington. Tickets were available, and you could hear him talking. The leadership role that he played with those kids, that dude just knows how to play effing basketball. He gets to the right spot. He knows where everybody's supposed to be. He tells them, Go, go, move, whatever. He is a big That's a big boy. That's a big boy right there.

Also, what fun situation has he been in? He was on that weird New Orleans team. He was on Washington. He was on Sacramento. This is the perfect team for him. Just come in. We'll run everything through you for six minutes and a half. Then if Jokuj gets in foul trouble, we actually have an option of a professional basket.

Can I just state some dings?

I'm excited for Skeptic Zack on the 53 and a half. No, the 53 and a half is a little high for Zack.

The Aaron Gordon leg stuff seems to come and go. Looks good in the preseason. Cam Johnson has missed a lot of games over the last couple of years.

I wouldn't say he's Cal Ripken Jr.

I think their rebounding will take a little bit of a hit without MPJ. That was one of the things he did consistently pretty well for them. Jamal Murray, all the camp reports are very exciting. He's in better condition and mentality. Then you always start slow. That's one of the reasons the Nuggets tend to not blow away their win total over under. Those are the dings, I think. Do these bench veterans whose names sound good? Like Bruce Brown, he did stuff for Denver. Tim Hardaway Jr. Do they actually help the team or is their name recognition allowing their value? And just like win totals from the last ex Denver Seasons, 46, 47, 48, 53, 57, 50. They just don't have a track record as a blow away regular season team. Playoffs, different story. Absolutely terrifying with the best player on the planet and a team that makes sense. Regular season, they're not like, blowing you away.

The 57 would be the doppelganger, I think, for this season, for me. The last year, the Murray thing was so weird, those first six weeks. House, I have a question for you because you've shared season tickets with people before.

I have.

When you share season tickets with people, you do a draft where you send your list and like, Here's my 20. Then you do like, somebody gets first pick and you get it. If I was doing this with my season tickets, Denver would be my first pick. Oh, wow. I would want to see them over every other team in the league. Would they be your first pick?

No, because I need to see Wemby. I haven't seen Wemby yet in person. I need to see Wemby.

So that would have been my second pick? Yeah. What would be your first pick? Look, fortunately for you, you can go to MSGC any game you want.

But with Denver- The Barclays Center, you're not even considering that.

I just thought they had WMBA games. They have an NBA team? Wow. What's it called?

Poor Jordy. It has the worst team name in the NBA, the Nets.

I thought that was where the Liberty played.

In any case.

And they have pizza.

I think WMBA is now ascended to like, I got to see this guy again and again. But to your point, Jokuj, I go to Toronto every year for the holidays where my wife's parents live. The Raptors have a murder's row schedule right after Christmas, including Denver at Toronto on New Year's Eve. And I've told my wife and my family, A, we're staying through New Year's Eve, so I'm going to that game, and B, we're going to all go to the game together because you need to watch this dude play in person and just ravage the poor raptors. It's still a hot ticket.

Can I make the Joker case? Because you're doing this draft in September. Jokuj is playing, probably 97% certainly when he's in your town. I got to start. I got to start. I got to start. Wendy, I have no idea?

We're going to knock on wood.

Joker plays. Joker is out there, and you know you're going to see him, and especially if it's a bigger city, he shows up, unlike, say, a Joel Embiid in Denver. If you're doing the season ticket draft, you live in Denver, Embiid goes 30th because he hasn't played in Denver in a decade. I would have Joker first, Wendy second.

Can I tell you a heartbreaker for me? I got laid off from ESPN last year. What?

When did that happen? Zack Lo.

You still worked there.

Organized my wife. Big mistake on my wife's part. It was like when I got home from LA, she was like, You know what, Zack? Carp launch. Take whatever trips you want to clear your head. And she said it in front of a dad friend of mine. So the planning began like, Oh, Carp launch. Seven dads from Connecticut descend on the deep south for a week, starting in New Orleans, built around Nuggets Pelicans. Because I'm telling you guys, this is a religious experience to watch this guy. We had great seats. This is a religious experience to watch this guy in person. Here was the Nuggets starting lineup that night. Dario Sarich, Michael Porter Jr, Payton Watson, Jamal Murray, Christian Brown, Hunter Tyson got in the game. Hunter Tyson. Jokić. Jokić's wife gave birth.

See, it has to be a crazy event like that. Heartbreaker.

You didn't do anything wrong.

Heartbreaker. Found out on the flight down, news broke. I didn't know how to break it to them. It's like, now you guys are... Payton Watson is going to find Mike Block a shot. Luckily, they played the Lakers the next night, and hit a game-winning jumper.

That was a good game. First legacy shift. New segment on the Over-unders pod. Got to talk about legacies. Is there a star player with a bigger legacy shift brewing on a pot on the stove than Jokuj this year? Because if they win the title and he wins MVP again, I think he's indisputably one of the best 10 players ever. I think that has to be the outcome. Because at that point, his 2020s, I'm including, let's say, he first-team this year MVP, just hypothetical. His 2020s, just this decade, four first-team, two-second, four MVPs, two second-place finishes, and probably should have won one of those two. Then he would be basically a triple-double for the entire decade, plus 29, 13, and 8, and 80 playoff games, whatever it's going to end up being. I just don't see how he's not on a top 10 list after that. He has to be.

I think the more interesting question is, if they never get a second title, is he still... His statistics are so... And individual honors are so crazy. And no one who has watched the Nuggets for the years they haven't won the title can make a case that it's Jokuj's fault at all. He shows up in every- It becomes a Jerry West situation.

I had West in the top 10 when I did my book. He only won one title. I didn't hold that against him because they were in there every year.

But if he gets a second one, the names he's next to, like next to immediately, not next to like, three more years is next to immediately, are the Holy pantheon of NBA players.

He has to be with Bird of Magic at that point. Yeah. He's next to them. And then we can start talking about top four.

We're all in agreement. It's an agreement, and it's why the fist pumps, the hasas as this offseason occurred, and we saw this team finally giving the assets, creating the multiplicity in terms of... They were They're built to withstand a little bit of time off for Gordon. They're built to withstand a little time off for Murray. They're built to even if Joker wants a little break, I'm okay with JV getting some starter minutes there over the course of this long regular season. The answer is, hell, yes. I do wonder. I do want to have this legacy shift conversation. I have a guy in mind. Do we save it for when we get to that team?

If you want to hit your legacy shift button, just pound it.

Okay, well, I'm sitting on mine for now.

I had one other thing on Jokuj because I thought of this when I was doing the research. It's not 100% fair because it's a decades thing. Somebody could peak starting in the middle of a decade and then to the first two years of the next decade. So you can't say whatever. The '60s were owned by Russell. The '70s were owned by Kareem. Those were indisputable. '80s were Bird of Magic together. '90s were Jordan. 2000s were Duncan and Kobe together. The 2010s were LeBron and Curry together. The '20s are just Joker right now. I don't think we have '26, '27, '28, '29. So we have four. Where do you stand on what is decade in for the '20s? Does it have to be the '30 season or the '29 season? That's where it gets super confusing for me.

I have not put a lot of thought into. It's really a decade.

But who would you even have in the running for the 2020s other than Joker? If we were like, what were the 2020s? Who owned that decade? It's Joker right now, convincingly.

Kawhi just for being in the news all the time.

But in the 2020s, they haven't.

No, I'm just kidding.

Shay, maybe- I just got your aspiration joke five seconds later. By the way, we're in the aspiration dome. Yannis. They just came to say, Yannis is the only...

That was my other one.

Yannis, who hasn't made the- I understand. I understand. I've got five years to play with. We do. Yeah.

25, 26, 27, 28.

The guy who can take it over the rest of the decade is Shay.

Sure.

Couple more titles with the resume. He's the only one I think that's in the- You're just dismissing Jason Tatum.

You've already got him coming back in February, Celtics.

I mean, that's maybe another candidate, Jason Tatum. I'm over for the Nuggets at 53 and a half house.

I am super over. This is a lock. Put it in my book right now. House Lock, Denver, over for all the reasons.

I'm not going to announce my locks until- Oh, At the end of the pod. But you can do whatever you want. You can hit the legacy button whenever you want.

Nuggets over is a lock for me. Are you over, Zack?

This is one of the ones I struggle with the most. There's three that I went back and forth on. I'm going under on 53 and a half. Based on their history as a regular season, good but not great team. I can't go over on everyone in the West. I've got to have some unders. I'm going slightly under like 51 and 31, 52 2 and 30. Prepared to be very wrong. I just got to go under on someone. I'm going under on them. Playoff, different story. I don't want any part of these dudes in a playoff series. I think they would be the number two seed in the West, and I'll go from there. But I'm going under.

I would like to go on the record and say, because the season is about to start, that I think it's OKC, Denver, and then we dropped. That's the final. I think those are the two best teams.

Western Conference final is OKC.

Look, who knows what changes, right?

Injures and everything.

Yeah, of course.

If you're just talking about a ceiling of a team that could potentially join that nightclub, maybe Cleveland, just from a talent standpoint, and the fact that they won 64 last year, but I don't feel as certain.

Honestly, I mentioned this on my part yesterday. One of the fascinating... I rarely start thinking about seedings until we're 60 games into the season. Everyone in the West has to be rooting for some scenario where Denver falls to four and has to play Oklahoma the city in the second round, where you don't have to go through both of them because they're so clearly, to me, in a tier, hovering above everybody else.

Would you see that GM survey? They said, which I thought was really interesting, but they had the home court advantage question in Denver and, okay, so you were basically had 95% of the votes or 90% of the votes or something. I was like, yeah, that's fair.

But that's a good point because that's another incentive for Denver to get to be motivated to win 55.

I'm still staying under. It's fine. I got to be under on somebody.

I can't hold it out against Emails from Denver, message board, things from Denver, tweet replies from Denver.

Fuck you, Zack. You went under your motherfucker.

I was so early on Jokuj. I have a lifetime of. With the Denver fans.

Nuggets Capital.

Minnesota is over, 49. 5, one of the toughest ones. They were 49 and 33 last year. They are 10 to 1 to win the division and the conference, 17 to 1 for the title. They have the seventh best finals odds. Zack, why don't the sportsbooks respect this team? What is Minnesota missing? What did they do to antagonize?

Okay, we're going to go this way. All right. 49 wins last year, you said. That's not a lot of wins. That's under their current number. Lost a critical bench player, and Alexander Walker have to replace him mostly with young guys. When does the Mike Conley thing just fall apart completely to the point that they have to start Divenchenzo? That would be my number one. And there's a trickle-down effect there. That That would be the case for the line being this low.

Counterhouse?

Well, the crazy thing is they got to 49 after they started off really slow last year. They were an under-500 team through the first 20, 25 games or so.

I would say unhappy. I mean, there were multiple podcasts for multiple weeks about what's going on in Minnesota.

Is this Randall fit like a disaster? What's happening?

Defenchenza was miserable. I mean, they made a pretty dramatic trade right before the season.

It was. It was traumatic, and it took a little bit the chemistry experiment to work, but then we saw it work a little bit. I think the version of what we saw in the Western Conference finals, the second consecutive Western Conference finals, that's who this team is. There's still another level for Anthony Edwards. There's still another level for that dude. I am in the same place as Zack is puzzled by the number being flat, and I'm not sure what informs that. I think it's anticipating the market being out on Minnesota. Because this number hasn't moved. It's been a hard 49. 5.

I mean, them having worse finals odds than the Lakers is pure lunacy. I just don't understand it. They were top five net last year. They have a top 10 player. They still have a top five defense. One thing that I used last year that helped me a little bit, I leaned out more this year is the records and the numbers for the last 30 games of the season. In Minnesota, it was 20 10 the last 30 games. There's plus 7. 3 with basically the team they have. And the only piece that's an X-Factor is Alexander Walker, who's getting those minutes other than Conley. But they have young guys that they can throw in those Alexander Walker minutes and maybe get lucky. Plus, they'll have a full DiFrancenzo year. And Conley is like Horford. I'm just not ruling him out anymore until we see that he's just completely washed up. I'm over. I think I think you make a case this is the fourth or fifth best team in the league. So at that point, you have to be 50 wins and over. So I am an over yet again. Three overs in a row for me.

Dillingham, Shannon. I like Jalen Clark. I think they can eat up the Alexander Walker It's well enough with Ant ascending, Randall feeling more comfortable, Gobert just as a great floor for your defense. Okay, the other case against is they got 82 games out of McDaniels last year, 82 Alexander Walker, 80 Nas, 79 Edwards, 72 Gobert, 69 Randall, though it felt like he missed more time. They were very healthy last year, but expected wins last year, 54. They shot the bet in close games.

For two months, remember? They were really bad.

I am going aggressively, enthusiastically over. All right. I'm aggressively over.

I am, too. I think this is a 50-win team. Yeah.

I understand why Zack wouldn't want to do Denver because it would put him in the position that you and I are NPS, which is another over. Over, over, over. We show up at the Over and Under podcast, 2025, and we're banging Westovers. But you know what?

Denver's number is four numbers higher than Minnesota.

But if we think these are three of the five best teams in the league, it makes more sense. It's just coincidentally, they're on the same division. We didn't mention Julius Randall living happily in his post-marijuana life. No more marijuana for him. He felt like it made him distant. It slowed him down. His brain's He's feeling great.

Do you think that message reverberated around the NBA community and there are going to be imitators?

There are some players. There was a great Durant quote where Durant was like, Yeah, I respect it, but me personally, I really like the plant He called it the plant.

I did not see that. I do want to hear from Zack. This will factor in. We'll get to Toronto eventually. What's the Toronto situation with the plant? That's going to factor in crucially for me.

Are you asking me because you think I plan on vacations around around this?

No, I just think you're generally aware as a person that spends time in Canada every year.

Is it a marijuana city?

I'm unaware, but Canada generally is a friendly- Toronto is a forward-thinking- It's a fun place.

There's a player I'm thinking of that I'm worried about.

House, don't get us canceled. Come on.

Just a player I'm worried about.

That's all. House, are you over or under?

Over.

All right, three hours. Well, we spent a lot of time in those three teams, so we're going to take our first break and come back with the two crappy teams in the vision. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA season is coming. Fanduel is the place to let you play your game. Everything, everything they have to get you ready for this season. We're going to be talking about a lot on the podcast for not just today, but the rest of the week and next week. Cool bets, season leaders, player specials, win totals, exact team outcomes, playoff parlays. You can go nuts, even better. You can parlay your favorite bets together for an even bigger payout. Take a flyer in the MVP race, crown your champion in October, parlay your playoff dark horses. We're going to be doing our season future boost. We're trying to figure this out during the Over and Under pods. Fandil is going to have it. I'll talk about it on my Thursday podcast. We'd like to put three teams together with win totals, 40 plus wins, 45 plus wins, 50 plus wins, put them together. And we're on a win streak.

We lost last year because of the stupid sons, but we're going to win this year. So get ready for our boost announced on Thursday's pod. Visit fandil. Com/bs today, and you could start planning your futures bets now. Fandil, play your game. I don't feel like we mentioned Anthony Edwards enough in the last segment, but it's fine. We have a whole year of podcast for him. We're going to go to the Portland Trailblazers, the next team in whatever this division is called. Northwest, the State Farm Northwest division.

Presented by Keia.

Their over-under is 34. 5, and they're plus 4. 10 to make the playoffs. Plus 200 for the play-in house, if you want to get frisky. They had a Drew holiday. They traded Anthony Simons for him. They lost DeAndre Ayton. They didn't lose him. They Basically, they brought him to the airport like a suitcase and just left the suitcase and the baggage.

They evicted him. They had evicted.

They added Yang Hansen, who already feels like that was one of the smartest marketing moves of the decade. People love him. He's selling jerseys, hats, everything. The kids love him.

He might be good. My kid insisted on watching every summer league game with Young Hansen.

The kids love- I'm telling you. Young Hansen.

Who's he, Zack? They can see his enthusiasm out there. Yeah. It's infectious.

He is really fun. I have no idea if it's going to translate to NBA games, but I do enjoy him. The one thing with this over-under, and I was leaning more toward over, but Scoot tore his ham string and is out. They're like one to two months. I feel like that's one of those injuries where you're not right for a while, even when you come back. Zack, that shaded me toward the under here.

Okay. Thirty-six wins last year, so they went over this number. Expected wins 33, fattened up at the end of the season, 23 and 18 in the last 41, which you could read either way. They found something or they took advantage of the morass.

You know what they found? House's old friend, Denny Avdia. He was on fire.

He was one of the two guys.

He was one of the best 20 players in the league in the stretch.

I think that was totally real. I think that dude is a legit- Me too. It's sustainable. Very good player. Shaden maybe goes up a level. Grant only played 47 games last year.

46 too many.

We both had the same joke.

I'm sure you're hoping this is the year Time Lord plays 80 games. He's still on the Blazers. Not betting on that one. I am going under on this, which surprised me because I felt like a jolt of optimism about how the Blazers finish the season. I'm super intrigued by their young guys. I just don't like their depth. I think their offense is going to be putrid. There's just no shooting. I don't know if the centers are really ready for this level of offensive responsibility in Klingon and Young. And the West is just really good. I think Portland is going to be solid. Their defense is going to be really good. Like Kamara, Abdiah, Klingon, a rock solid defensive team. I just think they're not going to score enough to go over this number, so I'm going slight under.

This is literally the script. They can't score. I don't want the Portland soccer bombs to get mad at me. I love this Portland team. I root for them because Denny, I root for Denny. It broke heart when they shipped him out of Washington. I understood why. I get the timeline that Washington is on. He's too good for the Washington timeline. I'm glad for him to be in the situation that he's in, but I think that they are going to have a hard time scoring the basketball. I am doing the underplay for the Portland Trail.

I was surprised. I was over in my head all off-season. Me, too. I think here's the title that they're going to win because I think we all think they're going under, and I think they will. They might have a It has to be 2026's Hipster NBA team.

Oh, that's a good idea.

Defense. There's going to be some really good defense.

Say Kamara. We have to say Kamara's name multiple times.

We haven't said it. Tumani Kamara, I said it. Kamara.

I like when you call them though. I'm going to keep up. Because you had the first malpropism in the pod. You're the first misprononciation.

It's going to be one of a dozen.

Kamara, who I think was really the thinking man's... That really, really, really nerdy epicenter of basketball on the internet where people are like, Look at these fucking numbers when this guy's plays. Look at the numbers of guys that he guards and how much he... I think I voted for him, second-team defensive, all defense.

I didn't have a ballot, but I would have. He had a first-team. He made it.

I still have all my scoot stock feeling great about it. And then Yang Hansen. I think this will be a really fun League Pass team. But you made the key point house. No for two months. We're not even positive if he's going to be, I don't know, an efficient offensive player. But I thought, Simons is intriguing. The Celtics are like...

Oh, boy.

Zack knew I was going to do this. The Celtics are like, whoa, Simons. This guy's a really gifted offensive player. You can run offense for him in the last four minutes of the game. He did that a lot for the Blazers last year. He did. They just pulled that out. And guess what? I love Drew Halladay, but that's not Drew Halladay.

I don't have a lot of faith that he's going to get to 60, 65 games for the Blazers. They're already down one guard and scoed. It should be noted. I think their incentives are all like, we're trying to win this year. We're diehard trying to get in the play-in, chase of whatever. Like, win as much as we can get.

The heart's in the right place.

However, they do owe a lottery-protected pick to the Bulls. If things are not going great, 55 games into the season, you always have to factor those in. You always have to factor it in. I don't think they care. I don't think it's going to guide their thinking. It's just if we get to a point where we have to start thinking about them.

I didn't love the Drew holiday season last year, and I said that as somebody who loves Drew holiday. I thought it was alarming that he couldn't guard anyone on the next because I thought a year ago, he's somebody who could have guarded all of the next. In that next playoff series, I was really surprised that he wasn't at that same level. I mentioned this because they're paying Drew holiday, Jeremy Grant, and Dame Lillard, who's not going to play this year, it combines $77 million. And wait, that then goes to $82 million guaranteed the year later. Oh, wait, $88 million in year three of that for those three guys and how they will be 37 at that point. It's really bad cap management. I'm just going to say it. When we have the second apron and stuff, that's just a lot of money to pay for those guys. I don't agree with it.

Well, Grant was the desperation trying to Keep Dame. We promise you this deal.

It was the Miles Turner. I really want to stay married. Here's a ring. Here's a new ring. I gave you a new carrot. Please don't divorce me.

The Drew Trade was a little ahead of their skis for me. That was a very win now. We need an adult in the room. We need leadership, which is all that stuff is valuable, but it's not as valuable as a $37 million player option three seasons from now. That's just-It was a miracle trade for the I get why they did it.

It's good to have adults around. It really is. That's fundamentally, they just felt you can just be too young and it's nice to have a couple of people. Even I was talking to I was talking to our friend Calleigh Curry because Seth went to Golden State. And it's like, well, what's different about Golden State than Charlotte? I don't think she'd mind me saying this. And she's like, well, they have people his age on On Golden State. Curry, Al Horford, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler. These are older players. There's something to have a couple of old guys around. I get it why Portland is like, hey, we need a couple more experienced guys. Drew is like a beloved locker room guy. I get it.

I wouldn't have done it, but I get it. What's the difference between Maui and Galveston? What?

What question is that? Are we three-unders?

Three-unders.

Unders, yeah.

Utah Jazz, over under 19. 5. They were 17 and 65 last year. They lost John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, and Colin Sexton. Didn't really get anything back for any of those guys. They have Kyle Anderson, They have my Comeback Player of the Year pick, Yusuf Nerkich. That's not true. George Deang, and they added Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton. And most importantly, Zack, we'll keep mentioning this with the picks, they owe Top 8 first, protected to OKC, which means to be safe, you want to be in the bottom five to feel really good about not having to hand that pick over. I don't know where to start with this team. We'll start here. How does Will Hardy explain his job to his wife? When he's home at night, what does he say? This is year four for Will Hardy being like, Hey, if it's cool, we want to go 18 and 64 again.

I think you say They're only 30 of these. They keep extending my contract into perpetuity. Do you like the home we live in? School system seems pretty good. We're living in the five-star hotels on vacation all summer, where we go. Ski is great.

Yeah, I think it's a good situation. I think he's like, Look around the league at the coaches. If he became available, he would instantly, by any of the top teams in the league, if a top team needed to make a move. None One of this is going to besmirch his character.

San Antonio?

Interesting name.

This is why Utah... I mean, they've literally... I've lost count of how many contract extensions Will Hardy has got. I assume his deal runs for 17 more years. They know, but that's what you do. If you believe in a coach and the coach is going through a rebuild, you give him these years. So it's not the classic thing where as soon as the team gets good, oh, we're hiring the veteran coach.

He's overqualified for this team, and that's been the case for all four years.

Plus it worked out incredible for Brett That's what I'm saying.

You treat- That was a joke. I know, but that's what I'm saying. This is what the extension signaled to me.

You just made the case that Brett Brown's friends were making in the 2010s. No, this is great. Someday it's going to be awesome, and he's never coached again.

But they never gave him extensions on top of extensions on top of extensions like the jazz are doing with- Why do you think they did?

Why do you think they did?

He gave him the GM job. That's true. He took Margot Fultz over Jason Tatum.

That wasn't him.

Wasn't him? Who was it?

I think that was one of the- Here's What's in it for you at this point?

What's in it for Lory Markinen house at this point? Why does he want to be in this team?

$175 million. Great contract.

Yeah, a lot of dollars.

Well, they gave him the extension. You're being the team this year, and then we'll talk about it after.

Nice comfortable situation. Not being asked to do too much.

That's the over argument, is that the number is extremely low, and they have an all-star, borderline all-star level player who played 47 games last year, and a good starting center who played 58. And if they get 75 games out of those two, can they go over this number? Because the bigger issue beyond that is I think all these other veterans are going to go to contenders. I think a guy like George Nian could help a contender. I think they're all gone. The biggest issue is who in the hell is dribbling the ball for this team that I trust to manage productive NBA possessions? And the answer is at this point, and it's not a bad thing because they're all so young, I don't trust anybody. And so like, Lowry Marconin is not a first option ball handler type of star. I just don't know. That combined with the possibility of them trading Marconin, I'm going under, which is shocking, considering 19 and a half is an embarrassingly low number.

It's a super low number. The thing that makes me nervous about it is that Ace Bailey might be a badass motherfucker, and it might make those people so excited that they come out and they try and win games. They do like what Brooklyn did last year, which is They come out and win some games early on in the season and look really good.

Hold on. I'm with my realtor. I told him we'd be calling because apparently Ace Bayly Island, there's condos. There's no island. How is there an island? It's a giant island. It's like a peninsula. He was a top five pick of the draft. It doesn't matter.

It's a huge island. He was a top three that slid.

There's beachfront property available on Ace Bayly Island. I'm in. Are you in?

I assume we're all in.

Yeah, we're all in, obviously. It's overcrowded. I'll call you back. It's overcrowded. The bars are packed. No, he's telling me it's not overcrowded. But like he said that all the stuff in the offseason made people nervous, right? Yeah, okay. All right, we're in.

He's going to be very exciting. I'm high on him. He's going to have crazy highlights. I just don't think it's going to be efficient against adult NBA teams. That's all.

Counter. He looked like a more filled out 19-year-old Kevin Durant in all the highlights I've seen so far.

I would take it a little easier.

I just said, Look, you can't see my boner right now.

Zack Loe is sending you some settle down juice right now.

He's pushing it right in your direction. I assume you're going way over.

No, I'm going under.

I am going under as well, but I just wanted to make the case that Ace Bailey is the argument for the over. Because that enthusiasm- I actually thought he was going to be a bust after some of the advanced stats with him as a college player, combined with how erratic some of the non-basketball All stuff seemed, and then him going to Utah and not seeming like he wanted to go there.

I was like, Oh, man. But I understand why Danny did it because it's like, you have to go high as ceiling. This guy's the highest ceiling. You got to do it. But then all the stuff I've read, all the stuff I've heard, and then watching him, how comfortable he seems physically in these games already when he's a baby. He's a professional basketball player. He has more thickness and size than I was expecting. And then the shot, I don't know if he would to play with. He might just be his own solo act, but I think it's going to be really easy for him to score. And it may be right away, which to me makes me think that maybe you move faster on marketing, like trying to make the trade. Because it's like you can put ace in. Let's get him the ball. Let's get him shots.

I just want to say for the Utah fans, me saying who's dribbling the ball. I watched your team. I saw what Isiah Collier did, solid. Keanthe George has flashes. I'm just saying this is the NBA. It's hard to run offense, and their efficiency numbers were bad. If you I have property on Ace Bayly Island, which is, by the way, ridiculous. It's like a continent. Can I get a little condo on Philipowski Fjord?

I like that guy. He's pretty good. I like him, too. I like Sensible. I like some of the guys in this team. They're going to be terrible this year.

I'm going to watch them, by the way.

Our only disagreement in this entire division is Denver. We're going to have lots of disagreements. I'm under and you're over. That's it. Otherwise, we're unanimous. We're all under on this? Yes, we're all under.

Can I give you three marketing teams really quick? Sure. Detroit's been the sexy one. Could this be our last gasp gold state move? They already tried to get them.

I'm not sure how that one works now with Butler in the door. Salary-wise.

Kominga, they can't patch the salaries together or no?

They have pics to trade. I mean, Kominga has got a base-Kominga, Moody, Buddy Healed, all their picks.

Is Komingo on the right timeline for Utah?

That, I don't Would I want to jeopardize the Ace Bailey continent with Kominga? I'm not sure. Should Houston have gone after marketing over KD?

We're going to have... That's a fascinating question.

That's a good one.

I was thinking about that the other day. Would Utah have taken Jalen Green, Dylan Brooks, and the number 10 for marketing? Probably like another first. You'd have to throw in more stuff, right? Maybe a Brooklyn pick?

Yeah, you'd have to throw in more stuff. The contract The contract is right now, after he played 47 games last year, not entirely his fault. The Jazz were faking injuries and all that stuff. The contract is an eye of the beholder contract. You can find executives around the other day going, I don't know if I want to pay Larry Markin in $54 million in four years.

I sent house the death charts, the starter's bench for each team. Utah's bench, Ace Bailey, William, Sensenbach, Clayton, Nerkich, and Philly.

Sure, Ace Bailey is coming off the bench.

Pausky. Are they going to play him and market him together?

Let's go.

What are we waiting for? That's a good point. We're moving to the Southwest division, which is led by the Houston Rockets over under 52. 5, minus 220 to win the division, which surprised me. 17 to one for the title, 10 to one for the conference. They were 52 and 30 last year. They added Kevin Durant, you might have heard of him. Clint Capella for some reason. Finnie Smith. They lost Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green. They lost Landale, who I like. They lost Whitmore to House's Wizards.

Let's go Whitmore.

Can't Whitmore. And sadly, they lost Fred Van Biet. And I think that's the question with this over-under is, I'm old school. I still believe point guards matter. And this seems like a high number and a really good conference for a team that I have no idea who's going to be handling the ball for them against pressure and crunch time situations, who's going to be making sure people get the ball properly. I talked about with Goldsbury last week. There's some stagnation, toilet ball offense potential with this team. 52 seemed high, Zack. What did you think?

The Vanvleet injury is a killer. Ahmed Thompson, Reid Sheppard, they'll get their turns. We'll see how that goes. I think game to game, their floor is really high because their defense is going to be so good, their rebounding is going to be so good, and they're going to play super hard every single night. I'm worried about Eison missing games because he misses games every year. Vanvleet's already out. Finne Smith has had health issues in the offseason. Durant generally checks in at 60 games.

Durant was in the 2007 draft.

Yeah.

Were you married yet, has?

No.

How many wives ago was that?

That's not funny. I've only been married to one wife, but I took my time. That's why I wasn't married in 2007.

I thought it was funny.

52 and a half is a big number. I'm surprised it didn't move a little bit more with Van Vliet's injury. Me, too. And I am going under on the Rockets.

I wanted to be the first one to say under on the Rockets. I'll be the second one to say under on the Rockets. That's the case.

I think they're going to be like 50 and 30, 49 and 33, 48 and 34, but I'm going under. That's a big number.

Just tell me who they're going to acquire for the FEV spot. They need a body.

That's the wild card. They can make any trade they want.

How does it make your case for your team with this in this spot.

Well, I do think that C. J. Mcallen would be an incredible replacement for FVV. I think it's like an 85 cents on the dollar thing. I just shout out my guy, Ben Standing, who threw that at me. He's like, Why wouldn't Houston grab C. J? I was like, You know what? That's a goddamn good point. The other thing, the reason to be concerned about this number is because their coach is just a monster. You would worry looking at this team coming in with the FVV injury and say, The chemistry piece of this is going to be funky. Are they going to be like Minnesota, a 500 team for a little while until they figure it out? Not with Dimey. I think they're going to come in prepared.

Are you sending out Vanvleet in this McCollum trade? Just cold-hearted. Like, thanks for your service.

Cold It's the NBA.

Enjoy your rehab. House is just ice cold when it comes to trades.

Ask them about Isaiah Thomas.

Yeah.

It's fair.

I mean, this is the NBA. It's a 1-10 scale with the 10 being trading Isaiah Thomas when he had a hurt hip. That was just fucking brutal. I didn't feel good about that when it happened.

Houston wants to win the title. They acquired Kevin Durant. How many more years is Kevin Durant going to be effective?

So the case for the over 52, if you're going to make it, Thompson would have to go make the leap that everyone's been- He's making a leap. But I'm saying a leap-leap.

Like reliable 18 to 22.

We'd have to be like, Holy shit, this guy's turned in on, I think, a pretty amazing He's an amazing two-way player. But the other thing is defense is good with the over-unders. If you're reliable defense night-to-night over 82 games, it's usually a decent indicator with the overs.

I think Schengen goes up a notch this year, too.

Eurobasket? You wouldn't do it.

What? I wouldn't watch it?

You weren't watching the Eurobasket pay-per-views. I don't need another streaming service, but I think Schengen still has untapped stuff. House didn't watch it. He just went on NBA, read it a couple of times and watched highlights.

Good enough. That's it.

That was all you had. Good enough. Uh-oh. Legacy makeover.

Oh, my.

Uh-oh. I'll be where we're doing it, aren't we? We're doing it. We're just going to dive right in and do the thing.

If they make the finals this year without Vanvleet and Durant's the centerpiece of this, super happy, this is the last thing that could shift anything for him, I think. Because I think people have decided one way or another on him. If If you're for the camp, I think you and I are in house where it's like, we actually think this guy's better than people realize this career was better in 17 and 18 on Golden State. He actually was fucking unbelievable. That 14 MVP season in all the scoring stuff. I think he's the best pure scoring forward of all time. The LeBron fans will debate that because they'll be like, Well, LeBron has the most points. I'm just saying, just from getting two points, I think he's the surest bet we've ever had at the forward position. And yet there's all the other stuff that we don't need to go into and all the baggage and how unhappy the Phoenix thing was, how unhappy the Brooklyn thing became. 2016, OKC, up 3-1 in that series, blowing it. 2014, not being able to get over the pump. There's a lot of ways you can ding him. But if he takes Houston to the finals as their best guy, that's an unbelievable new wrinkle to this.

Look, we could do three hours. We could.

We probably at some point.

Reconstructing Kevin Durant's career or going through the alternate realities of Kevin Durant's career after that 2016 season, including one where maybe he goes and saves the Wizards.

I would say he's had the most sliding doors of any NBA player of the century, even if you start with the Seattle thing. Just them moving and just having that nucleus. He's probably still there now in the Seattle Supersonics.

I think he and his people were caught off guard by, and I don't think they should have been, but just the perception that the Warriors' Championships count as half-champions. He's just never going to get the credit that a two-time Finals MVP should for those two seasons because the deck was stacked. And he's been searching for Brooklyn, Phoenix, and it just hasn't worked. And he's part of the reason it hasn't worked. He's been awesome, but the mood of those teams has not been very happy.

In the ad house?

No, I agree.

He turned down your team seven different You didn't even take the calls.

Didn't take the calls. Zack knows. I didn't have to say it. Yeah, I mean, you can understand why. Franchize in Washington finally has a good front office.

Have you decided on KD or could he do anything with the rest of his career that would change anything in your head?

I feel like there's two more years. It's this year and next, and let's see what happens.

I'm excited just to have him have all the Jalen Green possessions from last year, just in my head with the Rockets. Just give him all of the Jalen Green, dribbling the ball up for 15 seconds and doing some Jalen Green play. That'll be fun.

Are you reigniting your feud with Jalen Green? Is that what's happening right now?

No, I'm just excited to see Kevin Durant.

Are you going under? What's your call?

I'm a hard under. No, I'm just under. I think they're somewhere in the 48 to 51 range for me. But I think them going 53 and 29 or higher without Van Vuitt, it seems insane to me. In this conference, they're in the East. More of an argument. Zack, I asked Goldsbray this last week. West teams, you'd want to be the next five years. Okc, Insane Antonio are one, two in some order, correct?

Yeah. I mean, without thinking about it, it's hard to be.

It's hard to be with that. Those two are the top two. House, you agree? Okay, see, San Antonio. You want to have those rosters and those assets over anybody else. Okay. To Does Houston have a case for the third spot?

This is a great question.

I gave you Houston, Denver, Dallas, Minnesota. No, it's Minnesota.

Minnesota is the one that I think is the closest for me. I think Anthony Edwards is going to be that motherfucker.

I think it has to be Blink test, as you like to say, I think it has to be Houston. Because of the Picks. The Picks and Ahman Thompson. Just give me all the Ahman Thompson stock.

And the trade flexibility. Yeah. I think we all agree. All right, San Antonio, 43. 5 is the over-under. There was some action on this. This was 44 and a half last week. It dropped plus 4. 50 for the division. Hold that thought. 35 to one for the conference, 65 to one for the title, minus 166 for the playoffs. They went He played four games last year, even though Wemby did not play after the All-Star break. They added Luke Cornet and Kelly O'Linnick. They added Dylan Harper, the second pick in the draft. They added Carter Bryant, and they lost CP3 Mamu, who I know you love. Brandon. They have new coach, Mitch Johnson. Fox is out to start the season. The case here would be, are these guys 10 wins better than last season? What do you think, House? Are they 10 wins better?

Just right out of the box? No, I don't think so. It's asking a lot with the injury uncertainty, and I don't feel like we're completely in the clear with injury uncertainty with this team. Like the way they're building, Wemby looks unbelievable.

So is that a Wemby injury certainty?

It's just across the board.

You're just nervous for him just perennially.

Yes. I'm going to be until we get 70 games from him. Give me a nice easy, reliable 70, and then we can build from there after what happened. And the Fox thing is a bummer also. Ten Wins is just a bridge too far for me. And I think the West, this is a function of how competitive the West is. I only have one team dropping out of the top 10, one team moving into the top 10. The Spurs ain't it, so it's an under for me.

Zack Lowe?

Over. Over. 43 and a half over. I just think Wendyam is incredible. And he's going to be, I mean, what's at worst, the sixth or seventh best player in the NBA this year. Top 10 defense all by himself. The Fox thing makes me nervous. The Fox injury was my only pause. The only reason I even thought about this. You I can say, well, do they have enough shooting around one? But I'm a fair question. How does Fox, Harper, Castle, three ball handlers who are shaky three-point shooters, how does that all fit? Sohan is another non-shootter. I think the Cornet thing is a massively underrated upgrade for their team. O'linnick can help their team. But to me, it comes down to, I just think this dude is so goddamn good, and their supporting cast is good enough that I can get to 44, 45 wins. I'm over.

Best big man, year three. I Now. Duncan won the title in year two. Kareem also won the title in year two. Hakeem lost the finals in year two. These are all things that happen the first three years of someone's career. Dave Kauin's, year three, MVP, 68 wins Eastern Conference Finals. Shaq, year three, 57 wins, made the finals. David Robinson, year three, was his famous fantasy season house, 23 and 12, with 6. 8 stocks, blocks and steels combined. Moses, 49 wins Eastern Conference Finals. The only two... Yau had 51 wins. The only two year three guys out of the great centers, Ewing and Dwight, where nothing happened. We had him on a TV last night as we watched football. I just think it's indisputable that he looks way better than he did as a rookie, that he moves better. All the shit that he's doing with- He's a tiny bit heavier. He's a tiny bit- He doesn't look like a baby deer running around in the woods that's falling over half the time. He's just moving fluidly. And there's some stuff he's added. He has this crazy two-hand shack dunk now where he thrusts his chest and groin into the guy's face, basically.

Thrusting groins. There's been a lot of innuendos.

No, he's French. What do you expect?

The three-point shot looks more fluid. I'm with you. I think he might be actually awesome. He's 12 to win the MVP. I I think it's a real- He might be actually awesome.

He is awesome. He's already awesome.

He's fucking awesome.

I'm saying MVP conversation, 12 to 1, awesome.

He's in the MVP conversation. I said this last week on my pod. It's like people keep saying, Well, if things go right, he could get in the fringe of, No, he's going to be in the MVP conversation.

He's one of the best six players in the league. To me, it's an automatic over. But we didn't mention one thing. You skipped over it because you mentioned Cornet and O'Linnick, and I think that's going to be really important that they actually have competent big guys that can play with him, that can come in when he's missing a game, whatever. I was thinking of a nickname for them house. Cornet O'Linnick. O'linnick? I can offer you White Castles, Cracker Barrows, or the Mayonnaise Men. I like the mayonnaise man or just the mayo man.

You're so sad that Cornet's not on the Celtics. I love Cornet. Are you over it?

My dad has really been inconsolable, but he was also a great locker room, really beloved personality. He would just make gestures on the court after random events. Really? Just a great teammate.

Even the teammates were like, I don't know what that signifies.

That's another thing, the Spurs. I think the chemistry is going to be awesome. I agree. But we didn't mention one thing, and I think it's really important. I don't think it's been mentioned enough. I think people just assumed he wasn't going to be impactful this year, myself included. But watching some of the preseason. This is the only preseason team that I've actually watched multiple times, plus reading the stuff about the team and the the quotes from people. I think Harper is going to be good right away. I think he's going to be actually impactful. When you watch him, and he's a kid, he was a freshman in college last year, there's a comfort and an ease with how he plays that you just see immediately. He really knows where to go. He's patient already. He's big. He's not like this 19-year-old guard coming in who's like, Oh, man, when he grows into his body, he has the fucking body already. He's lefty. I think there's something really special there potentially with him. Granted, I've only watched him a little bit, but to me, that is the X factor. I'm already counting in Wemby. It's the harper piece.

That's fine. I'm content with waiting to see it. I want to say out loud I know that Wemby played over 70 games his rookie year and then 46 last year. I don't need people saying, Hey, you played 70. Well, I want to see it post this injury.

He had a major medical issue. He's gigantic.

That's what this is is about. I'll reserve judgment on Dylan Harper, which feels fair.

I think there's a castle. Everybody forgot about me, and I've worked really hard on my game, and I'm really good, too.

I don't think we forgot about me. One rookie of the year, it's It's not that... It wasn't overwhelming.

When you talk about this team, you talk about Wemby, you talk about Dylan Harper, you talk about all the bench ads, and nobody's like, Oh, they also have Castle, who was the best rookie last year.

I think this is a great landing spot for Dylan Harper. Everyone is fixated on Fox and how does he fit. Timetable is like, when Fox is back, you can play Dylan Harper 15 minutes a game. You don't have to force feed him anything. You don't have to overdo it. You can stagger the minute so that Fox is out, he's in, and Wemby's in at the same time because you're going to stagify and make his life a little... I think it's a great spot for him. And I just want to say, did you guys see the highlight of Carter Bryant chase down block attempt where he's... It's in the flow of the game and he jumps and his hand is above the square and the backboard? They were measuring I'm hearing it.

Yeah, I saw that.

If this guy can give them anything on offense, he is such a freak and such an elite defender already. I'm tempering my excitement.

Well, that's the thing. Over.

That's fine. I'm going to lose. You guys are going to win this one, and I'm not going to lose it.

I'm not just a hard over. I'm a fully erect over house.

I want you to know the market moved. They were 44 and a half, and people thought that was too rich. So it settled at 43 and a half. And I'm just going It just tempered my enthusiasm.

There's a couple... There's one fando bet I wanted to mention. They're three to one to win 50 games. I think of all the teams that we're not thinking of as 50 win teams, this is the team that has the ceiling for me because... You just mentioned Carter Bryant. They have multiple athletes at these wing spots. I always think about it like if you're just on another team and you're looking at the schedule like, Oh, where are we going this week on our road trip? And San Antonio is of the teams, you're like, Fuck. This is a fuck.

They got stuff to trade. They got anything they need to trade.

They have stuff to trade, which was the last piece of this house. They have all their own first. They have first swap with Atlanta this year, which might not matter. They have Atlanta is unprotected next year. They got some Boston, Dallas stuff. They have a swap with Sacramento in '31.

Anything you got with Sacramento is always a golden ship.

They have some contract stuff. They can put like, with Keldon Johnson. If you want Faisal, we'll talk about it. They could pretty quickly add up to a 40 to 45. This could be a marketing team.

They're on my marketing list.

That's a good one. This could be an out of nowhere Jalen Brown team.

You can't even pencil in a better fit than marketing Wembenyama. It's just if you have marketing Wembenyama Fox, you are now loaded with $3. 50 million plus in salaries.

Harper was the one that flipped it for me, though. You You know. Sometimes you know with this shit. That guy belongs on a basketball court with good players. I think there's something with him and Wemby that... When they traded for Fox, they didn't know they were getting the second pick. I don't think they trade for Fox if they know they're getting the second pick. I think they probably saved the assets, even though that was a pretty fair trade for them. All right, next team. Wow, if you thought our boners weren't in full swing, the Dallas Mavericks over 40 and a half They are plus 850 for the division. They are plus 108 for the playoffs, which might be my single favorite bet on the board, not to tip my hand. Their 39. 43 last year, they lost Spencer Dinwiddie, and they added D'Angelo Russell. They don't have Kyrie for probably two-thirds of the season. They added Cooper Flagg, who has a chance, Zack, to be the most impactful American rookie since Anthony Davis. I think that's in play, and I think it's going to happen. Okay. Over, under.

Just flat out, you're asking me?

Where do you want to start?

This was the one that I struggled with the most. I mentioned to you after I left last night, before the commanders blew that game. Sorry. Come on.

I thought we were new pod friends here.

That I was going to go revisit. Just make sure Adam locked in. This was the team that I was struggling the most with. Because it's a 40 and a half. It's obviously right in the middle. Flag is going to be awesome. They're a weird team that trends super big.

They're just openly not starting a guard.

Yeah. Last night they were like, what would it look like if we just don't even start D'Angelo Russell and we don't have Kyrie Irving and we don't really have another-What did they do?

Flag, Washington, Gaffard, Davis.

It was a gigantic lineup.

Yeah, everybody was like six, seven and up.

And Clay is still here. It's a strange team. I am going under on 48 and a half.

Okay. I'm stunned.

Well, can Can I...

You know what? You're not allowed on Cooper Flag Island.

No. Not everything can be an island.

You're not allowed on the Cooper Flag continent.

An island is designed to be something with a limited population in a small territory.

It is true. It's fair.

All right, here's my case for this. These are Anthony Davis's games played.

This is exactly the right angle.

This is from 2020 on. 62, 36, 40, 56, 76, 51, 42. If it's 55 games or 50 games, they're going under. With Kyrie missing two-thirds of the season, nothing about flag, love flag, love their centers, love the PJ Washington deal, love some of their depth heaps, shout out Najee Marshall, like Max Christie, blah, blah. If they just don't get enough games out of Kyrie coming off a massive injury and AD, who I just read the game logs, 41 wins in the West is a bridge just a teeny bit too far for me.

Wow.

When you're talking about But your concerns about Anthony Davis's durability, that's just right in the house, wheelhouse. I think he was the first person ever to express concerns in America.

Look, fully healthy, and I don't know if you can count on Kyrie. They're more a next year team than this year Because of Kyrie. Kyrie changes their team, obviously. Fully healthy, they're a scary motherfucking team in the playoffs. I'm just talking about getting through 82 games and winning more than half your games. Plus, there's a sneaky If this season is not going great and we do have injuries, this is the one of the only years we control our first-round pick in the next half decade. So I'm just enough is pulling me to under.

Well, we know that they'll gladly tank down the stretch. I mean, we have recent memory to look at for that exercise. That's how they got Derek Lively. Man, this one is indeed the most difficult, really, probably across the whole NBA. Because Davis thing. Because, yeah, I mean, Anthony, every other- If I told you AD was playing 65 games, you would go over, you wouldn't even think about it. No, not even think twice.

He has played 65 games once since 2017, '18.

So What are you doing, house?

Over. Because 40 and a half, this team with the size and the wings and the versatility, you're asking for a 500 team to get to the over. And I think Cooper Flag with 45 Anthony Davis games is enough for the over. I also think, here's the thing that I really regret. Karma, the basketball gods, should be on the side of an under, should be this team's sucking ass this upcoming season as the... Because I mean- But then they're in the lottery again with another chance. And with that chance, they get the 14 pick. That's the karma that the basketball gods should Reward.

Great trade. They traded Luca for Anthony Davis and Cooper Flag.

Fuck me.

I don't know. Maybe Nico knew what he was doing.

You see the vision.

He saw the vision.

You see it. He had the vision.

This total dropping from 41 one and a half to 40 and a half, put it right into my kisser, and it's a 41-win team. So I'll take the over.

I mentioned earlier the teams that the people look at the schedule and they're like, Fuck, we're playing that team. I think Dallas is another example. This is just a long, scary team that's going to try really hard. Flag tries as hard as any rugby we've come in the week.

I love Flagg so much. It hurts me to go under for that reason.

I just think they're going to have an intensity that's going to cover up some of like, okay, Davis isn't playing for four weeks. They're actually probably fine if he doesn't play for a couple of weeks because they actually had big men depth. It's like, all right, fine. I guess we'll just play Gaffard and Lively with Cooper Flagg at Power Four. We'll be okay.

I love Lively. I think Lively is being slept on as a potential leap guy. The strangeness plus the injury risk plus the West just being loaded, I'm going like, slight, slight under.

It's very fair case. Who's going to shoot threes on this team and knock them down?

Clay.

That's right.

Dilo. Don't forget about first three months of the season Dilo. I would like to.

This is what he does. I'm okay with forgetting about him.

You're going over?

I'm going hard over. Yeah, he loves the over. I think this team is going to be good. I already bet on this. Is Anthony Davis the 21st century's most frustrating superstar, or would you pick someone else? Granted, he's won a title.

Just in basketball or in other sports? In basketball. Nobody's more frustrating than Joel Embiid.

Good counter. Nobody's. You know what? That just... Okay. I was going to nominate Harden, but he's one multiple. He's one AMVP, rather.

Fair. He's made it to a conference final, at least.

It's Joel Embiid. We talked about Dylan Harper. Yeah, Ben Simmons is up there, too.

Gilbert Areenas is pretty frustrating. He made an All-MBA team.

No, Gilbert Areenas just got hurt. Gilbert Areenas seemed like he was as good as Kobe for a year and a half. No, maybe for three months.

Flag and Harper. I just wanted to say this, that this draft is night and day from last year, where last year, some of the guys... Reid Sheppard was the third pick and just was a G League player. We don't know if he's good or not. This year's draft, Flag has a chance to be a transformative star. I think Harper is really special. Edgecom is going to be winning Twitter and NBA Reddit and Instagram. Ace Bailey, we are fascinated by. House's dude Trey Johnson.

Yeah, he's going to be good. God damn, we got the sixth fucking pick.

He's going to be a really...

Come on.

He's going to be an excellent scorer.

He's going to be great.

But then all these other wings, these athletic wings that some of these teams have. I don't know. I think this draft's awesome.

Did you intentionally skip over Bill Simmons, 2028 Olympian, Conk and Ippel? Just left him. Is he above this discussion?

I talked to my lawyers and they said, only talk about Khanda in the Charlotte part because it's getting weird. I'm just trying to obey that. But here's another one, though. He's going to play 35 minutes a game.

I think the kid in Toronto is going to be sick.

This really has a chance to be an all-time. We'll look back six years from now and be like, Oh, my God. We've had a couple of those draughts over the years, but I think this one would be a really good one. Memphis, 39. 5 dropped. Was 40. 5, went to 39. 5. They've had some injuries. They traded Desmond Bain. They lost Cole Anthony. They lost Lou Cunard. They lost Huff. I know you're a Huff guy.

I like Huff.

Zack's already running out of steam. We got 20 teams left.

I'm going great. I'm not enthusiastic about Jay Huff mentions.

Ty Jerome, they added him. Kcp, Lando, Cedric Howard, Burnau's guy. They're plus 154 for the playoffs, plus 100 for the plan, which might be the bet of the year. They have some injuries coming out of the gate, and John Marantz already hurt. Should be okay at some point. First couple of weeks.

Not just some injuries. It's not great when all your centers are hurt except for Joclando.

Edy's out for a while. Edy's out for a while. And it's one of those where it's like, No, he should be back in December.

It's like, Willy, he's- Brandon Clarke had another thing, another surgery. Triple J is out for a bit. Yeah, it's not great. The number is This is on the surface, a disrespectful number to a team that has won 48 to 50 whatever games in the last few years. And they just seem to win. They just seem to punch above their weight in the regular season until, of course, they fell apart last year, could not beat any good teams down the stretch, plummeted down the standings, et cetera. I think this is a really good number by Vegas. That's off to Vegas because like 39 and a half, they can be under 500 and go over this number. I think that's appropriate given their injury situation. This was a very tough one. This was another one of my very toughest, toughest mix.

Has. Totally agree with Zack. I'm going to play over because this team goes so goddamn hard at home. They play their asses off for that Memphis crowd. They have a chip on their shoulder perpetually. I think, say his name properly, Tomás Ayasalo.

Tuamos Isolo.

See that?

Tuomas. It's tricky.

Isolo. I think Coach Isolo. See, they lost a defensive identity. That was part of what contributed them, sucking ass down the stretch. They couldn't stop anybody. Their games, their overs in the last 45 games, money in the bank. I love playing Memphis overs down the stretch last year. I do think that If they can weather the storm with these injuries and have any injury luck whatsoever, when Triple J, and Chris Vernon made this case, he makes it every single time we give him a microphone, when Triple J and John Marant play together, they win basketball games. What's our over and under for number of games that those two guys play? That sets the- It's a fair question.

That's a big question.

That sets the total number. We're asking for them to win half their games. I think they're going to win half their games.

You What would that number be? Over under on how many games both Marant and Jaron Jackson Jr. Play? 55 and a half? I mean, I would even be like- A hundred and five? No, but I'm saying together, they both play in the same game.

There's 82 games. How many of those? 82 do those guys play? It's like 40. You think it's in the 40s? See, I think it's worth, I think 60-ish is in play. I think this is why I'm taking the slight over here.

But you guys can't. You made the whole Anthony Davis case, and then now these two are going to be- I just said the over 55.

5. I thought it was low. You're going lower than me. Okay.

I just don't trust the health with those guys.

We're doing over-unders within the over-unders.

It's an over-under pod.

The Edy thing, I thought was really bad because I feel like that's a half the year. Look, Bane was really good last year. He's the top 40 to 50 player in the league, wherever you have them on your list. They traded him for a bunch of future stuff.

I don't know what happened in Orlando last year where literally no one could shoot, including the guy that they got to shoot. Kcp is like a solid fifth starter. I feel good about his fit on the team. I like Scottie Pippen Jr. And Ty Jerome off the bench. That's like a good stabilizing benchback court. I'm going over with House here. I think the number just got too low. I'm going over.

Okay. I'm only going under because I felt like San Antonio, Dallas, and Memphis, you can't do all three overs. And I already did my overs on San Antonio, Dallas.

I went under on Dallas.

I don't trust I don't trust the health stuff. I thought the last 25, 30 games of last year were so bad, maybe more of an indication of who they are.

Well, they fired the coach.

I get it.

There's also some If this becomes the year from hell, 25 games into the season, what do you do about that if you're the grizzlies? There's some year from hell potential starting off with this many injuries.

I could argue you already They have the year from hell with all the injuries they've had.

It was two years ago.

Yeah.

That's true.

The Jaron Jackson extension was pricey. I know they had to do it. He's sick.

He's a sick ball player where he plays.

I love him. Can you give me Seven rebounds a game? That's not his game. Well, who's going to rebound for this team this year?

Whenever those big guys...

My boy, Jon Conchard.

Yeah, I couldn't get there. Santee. I look forward to them Starting out the season well, and then Verna sending me long, angry text about it.

I went deep enough into the Memphis weeds that I looked at their first 15 games. It's a pretty soft first 15 games, which is another reason I went over. I was like, they should be able to survive this being seven and eight after this amount of time.

We're going to take a break, and then we're going to talk about the most entertaining team in this conference from a conversation standpoint, the New Orleans Pelicans.

Oh, my God.

As you could tell from this Over Under's pod, I love betting NBA Futures. One of my favorite things. Gives you a little stake, not just in your team, but you can pick five, six, seven other teams. Just monitor their progress over the six-month season. I like doing finals winners. I like doing pairings for the finals. I'm not allowed to bet on any of the awards because I have a vote, but the playoff stuff is really fun. Playing is a fun one. Season leaders, you can bet on stuff like, Will Wemby have a quadruple double this year? You can bet on that on Fandil. You can parlay stuff together. I love betting on Steph Curry for most threes every season because he usually wins if he plays enough games. Anyway, we're going to be talking about a bunch of these during the Overrunner podcast. Then on Thursday Night's podcast, we're going to be announcing our big Superboost for the upcoming season. That will be Friday, 10: 14 on Fandle. Be ready. New Orleans Pelicans. Over 30 and a half. They have the first-row pick. It's just gone. They lost it in a crypto scandal. Where did it go?

They lost it. They invested in aspiration and lost their first-round pick.

What's that guy's name? What's the bushy head guy who's in jail? Sam Friedmann. Yeah. He took it.

He took it. They invested in a movie studio. They went bankrupt.

It's just gone. They were trying to buy trees. They wanted some trees.

No matter what happens with this team, they won't be able to draft to play off their success, which makes them an enticing over for 30 and a half because we've seen this every year. There's two teams that they're not going to tank. Why would we tank? We have nothing to tank for. Let's play hard. Let's try to win. They added Jordan Pooh, House's guy, who was actually sneaky good last year. Kavan Looney, veteran. Sadiq Bayes back. They drafted Derrick Queen, who's already hurt, and Jeremiah Fears, who won't play until about 2030. They lost McCollum O'Linnick and Bruce Brown.

That was a very pointed shot at the He's 18. He's playing now. He's going to play now.

Okay. We'll see. The question, Zack, is, could they be this year's 2025 Hawks? This year is 2025.

Last year's Hawks, this year's Hawks?

Last year's Hawks. Last year's 24, 25 Hawks.

What happened with them?

Why are they interesting? They didn't have their first-round pick, and they just gave a shit and tried. And even when Jalen Johnson got hurt, they were like, We're still going to try. We're not going to be arresting anybody. We're still going to be going for And the addendum to that, did Skinny Zion suck you in at all?

No.

No?

I mean, it's better than the alternative, but I'm not sitting here like, Oh, I saw some photos pencil in 70 Zion games. I'm going to pencil in. If I'm an optimist, I'm going to pencil in 56 Zion games. I'm not hoping for anything better than that.

We should have done a games played draft.

Then save it.

You have a podcast. Maybe we'll do that for Philly. No, we could do that later.

I can't wait for Philly.

You guys do it.

Well, Herb Jones played 20 last year. Murray played 31. He's going to miss at least a big chunk of the season.

Murphy got hurt right before the season. Ingram played 18.

Yeah, it was... No, Skinny Zion did not suck me into like, Oh, everything's great now. They figured everything out. But your question is the interesting one. When I talk to people around the league, you would think The trade and all the flak they took for it would incentivize them to win, win, win, win, win at all costs. And Willy Green may be coaching for his job. Win, win, win at all costs. We have to save ourselves from embarrassment as a front office, save our job as a coaching staff. But also the counter is the front office is massively incentivized to show right away that queen in particular is good, that queen in fears is good. Do they put their thumb on the scale with the coaches? You got to give these guys major rotation roles because we got to show they're good because the more they play, rookies tend to not help you win games. I think it's a fascinating story.

What a conundrum house. This is another situation where the front office and the coaching staff Maybe not on the same page.

Well, maybe the front offices knew they didn't hire the coaching staff.

Great point.

I mean, Willy making it through last year was a miracle. I certainly didn't agree with it.

They won 49 games the year before that. I get it.

Queens hurt to start the year. Yes. If they're like a frisky 8 and 9 when he comes back or whatever the timetable is for his return, does he get gifted 25 minutes a game because he's Derek Wean and we made this massive swing for him? Or does Willy Green have the leeway to be like, Hey, man, Sorry, we're rolling. We'll spot you six, seven minutes at the end of the first half and see what goes from there.

House, let me give you the rotation. Missy, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones, pool.

Looney is going to start over, Missy.

Okay.

Which I like. Adult in the room. Set screens, get rebounds, make the right reads. I like it.

So Looney, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones, and Pool. It's a professional basketball team. Sure is.

And the guy's on the bench.

Missy, Alvarado, Hawkins, who I just continue to like. I would have been trying to trade for him the last two years. Queen when he comes back, Murray when he comes back, fierce. Bay, did you say Bay?

I like Bay on the- Bay, I haven't seen him yet. He's playing okay in the preseason.

That's a lot of basketball players house. I agree.

I'll just come out. I'm an over on this team. I think the way the incentives run. Willy Green, they won 49 games two years ago and 42 games the year before that. And that's with all of the Zion, how many games is he playing? Situation, they have a lot of dudes, and they have the capacity to be a pretty intense defensive team, and you're only asking them to win 31 games.

31 and 51. Over. And you're like this. Right. I have a confession. I have two confessions for you guys. I like the Jordan pool trade the more I looked at it.

For Washington?

For both teams.

Okay. I love it for Washington. I still find it inexplicable for the Pelicans.

I'm going to try to explain it. Are they ever signing a free agent ever in a million years?

Okay. Continue.

Pooh has this year and then next year.

Yeah.

Pooh, I think for the team they have, is probably a better fit than expiring C. J. Mccollum, who they're not going to trade for future pieces anyway because they already lost their first-round pick. And then Poehl is then expiring a year from now. I thought Puhl was really competent last year. House and I talked about him a bunch of times. It was like, this guy's a good offensive player.

He could help a team down the stretch. He can help a team that needs the Who's scoring-wise. You just really have to tell that dude, Here's the roll. Don't let him think that he's in charge of anything.

That there's no big three. He's not on T-shirts with Zion.

Don't roll and say, Oh, we're rolling the ball out, Jordan. Go ahead and do your thing. No, no, no.

They also got Bay in that trade who I was finding.

Who we all liked for a while, and then it got hurt.

I was hoping he was going to be able to play for Washington.

I have another confession for you guys. There's a couple of Pelicans starting fives I really like. How about Center Zion with Murphy, Jones, Hawkins, and Pooh. I want to see that for five minutes.

The opposing offense is also dying to see that for five minutes.

I just want to see it. I didn't say I was going to win with it. I just thought it would be entertaining. Then Missy, Murphy, Jones, Hawkins, and point forward Zion, no guards. When they do the point forward Zion thing, that'll be fun.

That's what makes me a little nervous is we know Zion's health is always going to be an issue. They really need more point Zion than they've ever needed before with any team because you just said, I don't want Jordan pool in charge of the whole machine for too long. No. Mccollum, gone. Murray, gone for at least part of the season. Alvarado is a good backup. Fears is a rookie. They're going to need not only Zion to play, but to run more of the offense than he's ever run before. Sounds great.

I like when he does that.

Well, does his body like when he does that? Everything takes a toll, right?

He's taking things seriously now.

You're going players.

I am going over 30. I think they win between 31 and 35 games.

Me too. You win You win the bet.

I win the bet. We are all over. The number is too low. Too much talent for this to be 30 and a half.

One Pelican's point quickly. Remember when they had this war chest of pics? We were like, wow, the Pelicans, all these pics. No war chest. The war chest is empty. They have their own first in 2832. They have that 26 first is going to Atlanta. And then they to have a Bucks or New Orleans first. The worst goes to Atlanta. They get to keep the best one in 27.

The thing I have to remind myself all the time from that queen trade, that they traded the best of those two picks to Atlanta is Milwaukee still gets the other one. New Orleans just gets nothing. Milwaukee gets the lesser of their own and the Pelican's picks.

The most dumbfounding decision.

Atlanta might get into the lottery with two bites at the apple. If the season goes badly for Milwaukee.

Or Atlanta might have a major trade piece with that pick. All right, we're going to the Pacific. Where the LA Clippers were the second-highest favorites in this division. And then LeBron had some back issues, and the odds flipped, and the Clippers jumped two spots or two wins to 49. 5.

They're up to 49. 5.

They sure are. They're up to 49. 5.

Nelly.

They are plus 130 for the division. Now, they're the favorites. They are 16-1 for the title, minus 600 for the play-off. Last year, they were 15-32. They lost Powell, Koffie, and U Banks, and added John Collins, Bradley Beal, Brook Lopez, and Chris Paul. They also added a pretty annoying offseason scandal that still has not been resolved. Zack, how hilarious would it be if the Clippers won the 2026 title? I'm I'm going to give you some of the things that would happen from that. The Kauai Trade will have worked out. James Harden would get off the pump. Chris Paul would get a ring. Bradley Bill would be a cult hero. And Steve Ballmer would go from embattled Clippers owner Steve Ballmer to an absolutely crazed guy holding the trophy and screaming like a fucking maniac. Those are all things on top of all the other things like the Clippers have never made the finals before. Anyway, I think it would be hilarious.

It's a double legacy button.

It's two. It's legacy buttons everywhere.

It's legacy buttons. It's Harden's legacy. Chris Paul. It's Kawhi's legacy. It's Chris Paul getting the chip.

Kawhi titles on three teams.

Kawhi's legacy is really going to be incredible. Two-time Finals MVP. And just all the injury, mistime, mystery, controversy.

Artguably, he should have been the finals MVP for OKC last year.

Wow.

I would voted for him. I didn't get a vote. That's so rude. Imagine that. Seven SGA votes and a vote for Kawhi Leonard.

Paul George doesn't even get any votes.

I guess he could have. Anyway, 49 and a half for the deepest, veter-ish-y team in the league, seemed low to me. I have to go over on this. I do that knowing that Kawhi Leonard is on this team. What do you have, Zack?

I mentioned how I went under on the Nuggets because I can't go over on everybody in the West. I like all these teams, love their depth, hardened, love him, hate him, look forward to his game seven shit burgers, whatever. The dude is a regular season wins machine who plays all the time, which is the best possible insurance for whatever happens with Kawhi. I can at least... I know I hand him the offense. They have depth. I was going to go over 48 and a half. If I'm going over 48 and a half, I should go over 49 and a half. I'm over. The age really makes me nervous.

You seem really excited about it.

Bogdanavich is already a little banged up. Cp is ancient.

It is one of those on paper versus the actual, because if you go through, it's like, well, Chris Paul is over 40. Brook Lopez looked on the last legs of being a productive rotation guy last year.

Zu plays every game and plays a ton of You mean my third team all-MBA?

Yeah. Pick last year, Zu.

Perfect spot for Brook Lopez. Deserved it, too.

I also think they actually have a little bit of a homecourt advantage now, which is the opposite of where they've been forever. There's good energy at these games. They have a good-in the aspiration to them.

A little bit of us against the world energy now?

Especially now. The league's trying to bring down the Clippers. What do you have, house?

This team won 51 games in 2023, 2024, 50 games last year, and a total under 50. Sign me the fuck up. I will take the over. Thank you, sir.

We all went over on the Clippers at 49. 5. That's not a small number, 49. 5. In the West, with Ty Lou, with this group, these are professional basketball players.

Who's the chump on this team?

One thing, the Collins piece I really like because I always felt like when Kawhi wasn't in there, they always just felt like Batum was the only tall wing with size that they had.

He shot 40% from three last year, didn't he?

Yeah, in Utah, he's good at Trade Collins because he was too good for them.

He's become the most underrated player in the NBA. I think John Collins is good. I think he's going to be good for the Clippers. Good for the Clippers. That's all we're saying. I don't know if he's going to start or come off the bench. They've been a little cagey about that. It seems like he's going to come off the bench. They'll start Derrick Jones Jr. Because they want someone to guard the best wings on the other team and not have that someone be Kawhi, which I get. But he needs to play a lot. John Collins, I think he checks a lot of boxes for them. Me, too. He's wildly underrated. I had Young, at least, or Young in his prime, at least on this team, he's like a I had the OKC Denver, DROP, Clippers, and then I would add Houston.

I would add a 3A, 3B, 3C with Houston, Clippers, Minnesota. I think Houston can't be in there anymore because of the Bamboo thing. I would say Minnesota, Clippers, 3A, 3B for me. I'm stunned.

The top four. I went over on the Clippers. I'm stunned. Why?

They have so much talent.

It's a big number, and they're so old.

They were really good in the play. Also, I got to hit the legacy button for Brad Beal. This is a chance for Brad- They were really good in the play I know the matchup-wise. I like the way that they matched up. I understand the outcome.

I thought they played Denver great. They did. They were great. They should have won that series. You get no flowers from me. But they should have won in six.

Well, they didn't. You get no flowers from me for that when you embarrassed yourself in game seven.

Hot take. I thought they were third best team in the league last year. I really did.

And yet would you ever trust them in a game seven on the road?

No, I wouldn't trust them at all, but I think they could win 50 games.

We all make money that way. We wait till them to get to game seven, then we Look, I took the over.

I'm stunned no one went just aggressively like, too old, scandal, under, boom. No, I thought it was like a sitting there for you to just make fun of the Clippers for 10 minutes.

With the way they care about the environment through aspiration. That's it.

All the trees.

All the trees. Trees have been planted thanks to the clippers.

You love the wall.

Do like the wall. The wall is good.

The wall is good. We went over on the clippers, all three of us.

Remember when Balmer flew the wall, the core of the inner circle of the wall to Denver for game seven?

It's a sad flight home. Yeah. No, I think, look, a lot would have to go wrong for this to go under.

I don't think that much has to go wrong.

But I'm saying you'd have a 30-game Kawhi season. Okay. You would have to have Chris Paul and Lopes are just washed. You would have to have Beal being 10 games in. I signed here because I thought I'd be a bigger part of everything that's happening. I guess I'll have to get used to my new role.

I'm I'm waiting for you to say something that's wildly implausible.

All right.

You said over.

Over. Zubots would have to not be as durable. I don't know.

Zoomots getting hurt fucks this up. That for Sure. Undoubably without- I just think they have defense. That pick and roll with Harden was fucking awesome.

The thing they didn't totally have last year that I think they have this year is different kinds of lineups depending on who they're playing. But I felt like... I just thought they played OKC so well last year. It was the one team that I felt like it was like boxing, could go toe to toe with OKC and really move around the ring with them. All right, the Lakers dropped from 49. 5 to 47. 5. They added DeAndre and Jake Larevia and whatever version of Marcus Smart this is going to be. They lost Fannie Smith. They lost Goodwin, who I liked. They're plus 220 for the division, 16 to one for the title, which is ludicrous. I guess the question for me when LeBron comes back, can you actually be a contender when you have to hide your three best guys on defense? That's the most part, I can't wrap my head around with this team. Their three best guys are all people you would attack if you're the other team on defense at this point. Lebron can have those moments when he looks like Miami LeBron for two seconds, but for the most part- He was pretty dialed in for a two-month stretch last year.

He's going to be a year older, and now he has some herniated disk, whatever makes me nervous. I'll just spoil my pick right now. I'm under for this. I think I have them in the 44 to 46 range. This is shocker.

This is shocker. The whole world hate.

Exactly. Because I can't believe that this sentence is not enthusiasm. How dare both of you.

How dare both of you. We came to your house when we called you out.

I went way over them two years ago, and I think we crushed on it.

The challenge for me, Zack Lo, is there used to be a rule. We used to have a rule that you just can't go under 46 or 47 games when one of the game's five best players are on a team.

We're right on the cusp here with the 46 and a half. I thought the same thing.

Are they down to 46 and a half?

I'm sorry, 47 and a half.

It's 47 and a half. So Luka, skinny Luca, Luca with an agenda. This team is Luca's team. This is his season to make his mark, the true welcome to Los Angeles, because they went out so feebly in the playoffs. Luca can wipe that dirt off his shoulders. This team is his team. It's going to succeed or fail with him. I am taking the under because I don't have a defensive identity for this team. I can't come up with the defense for this team. I go through the personnel. I don't know. Nobody jumps off the page. Also, I can't overemphasize the respect for the LeBron. I don't think... Sciatica is not like, Oh, it's this thing that gets fixed. Here's the fix for sciatica. No, no, no, no, no. Not when you're 41 years old. This is going to be a persistent problem all season long. If you want to do over under for games played for LeBron James, and I'll set it at 30 and a half. Wow. I'll set it at 30 and a half for LeBron James. I think you're over on that. Well, here's the thing. The important thing is for him to play in the playoffs.

Got to get there.

In the West, you got to get there. You can't have these conversations in the West for one of these teams. Well, we get to the playoffs. That doesn't exist in the West. That's Luca's role.

That's Luca's role. That's Luca's role. That's Luca by himself is 42 wins.

He better be.

What do you think the most regular season wins Luka Mavericks team ever got was?

It was low 50s, right? 52. Yeah. This is why I said it. They had a couple under 40. What was the year?

They made the finals 50 wins.

But they had the one year when they got lively.

That was the tank year, so they went 38 and 44.

How many of those games did he miss, though?

I don't think he missed as many as He was playing most of that time. All right.

Well, Lakers fans, I'll be on the island by myself. I'm going over 47 and a half. The line dropped to a point where I felt comfortable doing it. I trust Luka. I trust Reeves. I I think they have better depth this year. I think LeBron will play more than what you just said, but who the hell knows? I've never had sciatica before. It sounds awful. Fifty wins last year. Expected wins, 45. Went a lot of clutch games, got some opponents shooting luck from three.

They also had some crazy schedule stuff where it felt like over and over again, they were playing some team where their best guy wasn't playing or two guys were missing. So yeah, I didn't feel like they were 15-18.

Well, and to lean into your Lakers exceptionalism thing. They will lead the league in free throw rate every year and never get called for any fouls. So I feel like I'm starting every game ahead 5-0.

They certainly have the right head coach for that.

That's a great point.

I'm going over 40. I don't feel... This feels like optimistic. I don't think I wouldn't go 50 on this team, but I can see 49 or 48, so I'm going to go barely, barely over.

So part of my case for if there was real urgency with this season with them, I might feel differently about it, but this feels like such a transition season in so many ways.

The smart money is on the under because they have a little bit to trade now, but they have more to trade later, and they have the cap room thing looming.

And they've been very clear, 27 Let me- Yeah, we got him. Yes. An hour and a half in, we finally broke Zack. He's got real regret about a pick.

I'm sticking with it.

I'm not letting- What's going on with the ownership group? In the sense of direction. Oh, my God. Bill Simmons his hand up.

This is part of my thing. I think this is a really tumultuous year for them. You have the ownership group where a lot of stuff has not come out yet about what's going on with the kids. I can't wait to see who does that.

You're talking about the bus kids.

The bus kids, the sale. There's a lot of acrimony all over the place. I feel very comfortable saying that.

Second- It was a 4-2 vote among the siblings. That means two said no.

Second, you have LeBron who did all the stuff last summer. I know.

We got him. His head was in his We'll be monitoring this.

We'll see if they want to be competitive. Meanwhile, he has nowhere to go. He's never been in a situation before. He's been on somebody else's team. Now, House made the point. I had sciatica. I had all kinds of backstab in '03 and '04. I was working for Jimmy Kimmel Show, we would have the writers meetings, and I would just lie on the floor because I couldn't sit in a chair. When it goes down to your knees and your feet, it's a whole other... It does not just heal in two weeks. That's it. I don't care how much technology you have. It's like every hit he takes, he's going to feel it. And on top of it, he doesn't have a contract next year. So you have that. You have Rui isn't expiring. You have Gabe Vincent is expiring. Max State isn't expiring. I don't feel like they're going to use future assets to try to upgrade. I think they want to just get to 27 and see what's going on with Yannis, see what's going on with whoever the other stars are.

They took care of the most important part, which was the Luca extension. They did that thing. That was the important thing.

And they told Luca, Just go nuts this year. Score 33, 34, 35 a game. Do your thing. A year from now, we're going to go all in. They gave JJ. How about the suspicious JJ extension? The guy was hired a year ago as the head coach. He got an extension. Why did he get an extension? Because they're telling him, We don't care if we're a contender this year.

He did a good job.

I don't think Can't take care if they're a contender this year.

You don't think Connect was the steal of the 2024 draft anymore?

I think most of the guys they have can't play defense. I would include Marcus Smart, who I think can guard bigger guys but has no chance against point guards anymore. Vanderbilt is going to have to guard everybody in the other team. We didn't even mention DeAndre Ayton.

This is the most fired up you've got in the entire podcast.

I just think they have so many variables. Deandre Ayton, two teams with DeAndre Ayton have said, Please take him. You can have him. He's like a couch that people are just trying to get rid of. I see on paper, he's been like, what if this happens?

He's already been in a suitcase and a couch in this podcast.

I've just gone through furniture. I just don't think they care about this year.

Are they over 500?

I think, Luca, they have to be between 42 and 45. Don't be disrespectful of Luca. I think they're an above 500 team.

I'm not being disrespectful. I'm taking the over. You guys are not talking me out of it. I came in here with my convictions. I'm sick of my convictions.

Over.

I think 48 and 34 is really hard, especially if I don't know how many games LeBron's playing.

That's it. 47 and 35 because the. I set my number.

I'm an under, but I do think there's a possible year from no potential.

Lakers, nobody Nobody believes in you. Nobody believes in the 2025, '26 Lakers. Luka, nobody believes in Fit Luka.

There's got to be one way or the other. Fit Luka. Fit Luka. I love Fit Luka.

Well, here's the other thing. I always think about this, too. What's the best case scenario for their season? Like, 50 wins, 49 and 33?

There's a best case scenario where they can win 52, 53 games. You're talking best case. Best case means LeBron's healthier than we expect. They get lucky in close. That would be fine.

I'm over.

I'm over. Here's I want to be clear.

I like to watch LeBron play.

I thought like there could only be one at 47 and a half, and you had to go over with one and under and the other. Our next team, the Golden State Warriors, 47 and a half is the same number.

We just transitioned right to the Warriors?

What's wrong with that? They're in the same division.

I understand. I'm fired up now because you guys are just the East Coast bias.

You're feeling good on the side. East Coast bias. Golden State, 47. 5. I don't think you could take over for Golden State and the Lakers. Why? You have to pick one.

You know who has two thumbs? You know who has two thumbs and took under for the Denver Nuggets for this exact reason? This guy right here. You don't get to tell me what I could do on your own.

That's fair enough. Fair enough.

God damn.

Plus 220 for the division, Golden State. 27 to one for the title, same odds as the Atlanta Hawks. Minus 420 for the playoffs. Plus 130 for the play-in house.

Now I'm fired up.

Plus 130 for the play-in.

They lost Looney. They added Al Horford, the most beloved Celtic teammate, probably in the history of the franchise. And they added Seth Curry. They have a veteran, good karma, good personality, professional team, and Jonathan Kaminga.

Tell me who Jonathan Kaminga is on this team whenever they decide to trade him. Who's it going to be? Because Jonathan Kaminga, they're not entering the playoffs in April of 2026 with Jonathan Kaminga.

I had that as one of my questions. Where is he playing in February? Because it won't be a gold state.

I earnestly asked that question because it will help me determine. I have a big question mark. I don't know what to do with this team.

I went through all the fake Kaminga trades last week, and I don't remember what they all were off the top of my head, but it was actually hard to find one that was realistic.

Is marketing not realistic?

Marketing is realistic for me.

It would have to be Kaminga and everything else. Remember, he's got that weird base year compensation thing where his salary counts differently for the Warriors than it does for the team that gets him, which is tricky.

Doesn't that help with marketing? Because marketing is expensive, isn't it?

I feel like it never helps. Okay.

Well, so right now they would be starting, I would guess, Draymond with Kaminga, Butler, Podzempski, and Curry, Horford, Hield, Moody, Jackson Davis, GP2, and Post off the bench. But they have contracts they can put together. They have all their picks.

Except one, which they owe you, you guys.

They can get frisky. Yeah, let's go.

Right. That's the Jordan pool.

But they can trade a piece of that pick.

Is the best case Are you in the area of a 2026 Warriors season, top six in the West, just being one of the six teams?

Yeah, for sure. Yes. Remember, 48 wins was the number to make the play in in the West last year. And this This team, to me, looks like a 48-ish win-win team. Now, the number moved. The market responded to the Lakers' injury, to the LeBron's injury. The Lakers have been docked, and the Warriors are the beneficiary.

Nobody believes in the Los Angeles Lakers, except for me.

My hands up. I like it. Yeah, it's good.

Here's another case for Golden State, if you're going to go over. They were just really good the last 30 games of the season. They're 22 8. They were 8. 8 plus net rating. They had probably the second best defense in the league for that stretch. This was all with Butler. I just think when you're that good for that long and you're bringing everybody back and you could be reasonably healthy. The question and the issue with the overrunners with a team like this is just you got old guys. I'm counting on Butler, Curry, and Draymond on two play minutes.

They had to go 22 and 8 down the stretch to make the effing play in. They weren't going make it.

Urgency. Yeah, right. But their team changed in exactly the kinds of ways you would hope it would change by adding Jimmy Butler. Their turnover rate went way down. Their free throw went way up. Their forcing turnovers on defense went way up. It was like they just injected all this stuff they didn't have that came in one guy who can play their cut and screen and move style of play without any tutorial. Just walk in and execute it.

Also, you go from having Curry to now Curry where there's less attention on him. So you're getting a better Curry on top of all these other things.

And also, just like we talked about with Denver, when Curry goes to the bench, we actually have a reliable thing. This was one of the easiest overs on the board for me. I'll press my lock button for the first time. This is a lock over.

This is amazing.

I worry about their payoff, getting through 82 games plus a grind of a couple of payoff series because they're so old. But I just think the IQ and talent on this team is way over 47.

The chemistry is going to be awesome.

And I do. My eyes pop. My eyes pop when all the projection systems like Pelton, Hollinger are spitting out huge numbers for this team. If they're all in agreement, I'm like, okay, the Vegas is missing something.

Horford, too. Because part of the problem with them, just the way the league has changed, which is being able to put shooters around Steph to give him more space. You're just flipping Looney for Horford is so massive for him. If Horford has anything left, we can just park him at the top in that post-roll. They're playing post a bunch who I don't even think I'll do respect to him. He's not somebody you really want to rely on for 25 minutes a game. Now you have Horford, who then can play defense, too. I think they're going to be really good defensively. I just like the team.

I have a question for you guys. Well, let me ask first- We haven't made a pick yet, so do you want to do that first? I know because I have a question. I'd like to ask the question first. How many games do you think that Drayamont, Steph, and Jimmy Butler will play together? There's 82 games. How many of those 82 games will those three guys be healthy to play?

Is it also fair to say this will be our last happy Jimmy Butler season before he'll then have a year left. So this next summer will be when he starts up with the, I don't know what's happening in my contract.

Would you say that to his face?

I probably would, actually.

He would like it if he did. Yeah.

It's like, Hey, Jimmy, can you be happy for a year?

Maybe.

My question is how many? Because that is important, I think. Or is it not?

It doesn't matter. I would say 60 plus for me.

No, I don't think so. I think it's more than that. I was going to say 45 or 50. That all three of them play together.

55, maybe. Are you talking about injury or they're going to- Both.

Injury and rest.

I'm going higher. They all project to be 65 game players. So you just start doing the math of how much of those overlap.

So if you have two of those three guys for good stretches of the season, we're saying that it doesn't matter, right? I feel good.

On the one side with Curry, Kerr has been... Steph looked a little gamey tonight. I'm resting him in Phoenix tomorrow. He'll always do that. On the other side, they really hated being in the play-in last year and just all the miles you have to put on yourselves. In games like that, I don't think they want any part of it. I think they want to be in the top six, which makes me The question for me, though, Zack, they'd have to jump, OKC, not happening, Denver, not happening, Minnesota, probably not happening. The Clippers, I'm going to say not happening. Houston, Lakers, San Antonio. They have to jump two of those to be in the top six, basically. That's where it gets hard. They're going to have to be in the 49 range.

For me, it gets easier.

They're not jumping. They don't have to jump San Antonio. They are ahead of San Antonio last year and coming into this year.

We just made the case earlier that Wemby has a chance to be like...

You guys made that case, not me.

But this is why I said when Vanvleet got injured, it's not hard to come seventh in the West. Not a lot has to go wrong for your team for you to suddenly be in the play-in tournament. Houston fans, I'm not saying they will. I think they're going to be a little better than that. But you can't pencil any of these teams below Oklahoma City and Denver into the third seed. Just like, no brainer.

If you win 47 In games, you're in the play-in. You're looking like you're fighting to make the play-in. I am going to take the over. I want to be on the record with this team. I think they're going to win 48 games.

You just fucking copycatted us. That was bullshit.

We talked it through.

It was ridiculous. I like that, too. You should have come in with the pick.

I like Melton.

I was cheating.

What's cheating? What are you talking about?

You guys couldn't talk me out of the Lakers over. I look forward to being wrong on that one, but I'm taking it. I'm sticking with it.

You mentioned the Houston play-in possibilities.

Yeah, what are the odds?

Plus on Fandall. Kind of intriguing. Before the season starts. Because there's going to be a play-in team in the West that we did not think was going to be in the play-in.

One of these older LA, LA Golden State teams is going to just run into a pile of bad injury luck and just like, something is going to go wrong for one of these teams.

It's literally the Lakers. Lakers plus 155.

Nobody believes in the Lakers.

Two more. Contractually, we have to do these last two teams.

Contractually, I'm just getting fired up now.

The Sacramento Kings, they're over and under. It's 35 and a half. They are plus 360 for the playoffs. They're 2 to 1 for the play-in. They lost Laravia and Valenzunis. They added Schroeder. They added the artist formerly known as Dario Sarich and Drew Yubinks, and they lost Keegan Murray for at least the first 10 to 12 games of the season. They also had some weird offseason stuff with Vivek's daughter being peripherally involved in this Chance Comanche story, which was pretty crazy. In general, just saying that King's had a weird anything is, I don't know if I needed to say that. Do they get enough credit for being reprehensibly and on in, Zack? Oh, yeah. Okay. You think they're going to get enough? Yeah. I just want to make sure.

Yeah. No. They're about to get more. So we can keep going.

They have one playoff series appearance since '06. They haven't won a playoff series since '04. They haven't made the finals ever. And they just seem to keep popping up whenever weird shit happens with the NBA. I feel bad for the Kings fans because we got a taste of how cool it was once upon a time. Two years ago, it feels like 20, light the beam. And then they just decided to reassemble the 2023 Chicago Bulls with Sabonis. And that's where we are now.

I would like to congratulate Vegas again. I don't know how to do this. I don't know. I'm not a gambling guy. This team in the last three years has won 48, 46, and 40 games. And Vegas is like, Yeah, how about 35 and a half? How about you eat that crappy number, Sacramento Kings? And I could not be more aggressively under even on that low number. Give me all the Kings understock. I hate this team. I hate this roster. I hate Dekegan Murray's already injured. I hate the vibes. I hate everything. I think this is going to be a year from hell for the Kings. I'm taking under Under.

You didn't even mention Coach Doug Christie.

Under. Could not be like, it's a low number, and I just could not be more like, this is the year from hell. Who's playing defense on this team? Why are DeMar Derozen and Zack Levine on the same team anymore? I hate everything about the... Dennis Schroeder, I don't hate Schroeder. I don't hate everything. There are parts I don't mind. I hate the construction of the team. I just hate it. I'm going under.

How else are there... So we'll say Utah. Is there another West team you like less than the Kings?

No. No, no, no, no. This team, it is the epitome of shit alchemy, taking gold and spinning it into a giant pile of shit. This team had Tyrese Halliburton on it. This team had D'Aaron Fox on it. This team had a beam. I liked lighting the effing beam. That was an amazing season. I enjoyed that season.

I'm sorry. I got to look.

What happened?

No, I'm just like, who's the backup power for it on this team. Doug McDermott. Look at the depth on this team. Nick Clifford's got to step in and play like 30 minutes a game.

Like Sarge is going to play. Why?

What is that? Hey, you didn't play at all for the Nuggets. We'll take you.

Also, they tried to trade Malik Monk. Monk? Malik Monk. I did it house.

Our first one of the season.

My first one. Love it.

We haven't even got to many of the Yugoslavian players yet.

They tried to trade him all summer. I like him.

There's still time to do it.

I would take it.

They'll do it. This team stinks.

They tried to trade Carter for Kominga.

The whole thing stinks like the garbage bags on the sidewalk that have been out two days too long. It just stinks. I could not be more happy to take an under on a low number on a team that has been around 500 or over for three straight years.

Here are some of my notes. This is the single dumbest NBA roster. They have no salary cap space. They have no young studs. They have no under-25 player. They were This guy. They have no chance. There's no point for the team. There's no five-man- That's not nice. There's no five-man rotation you can put together with the players they have that could win two games in a playoff series. If they played all 48 minutes without a bench.

I like Kean Ellis. They messed that one up, too.

This is just... I hate it. I mean, thank God for these guys that Joe Dumars came back to New Orleans and was able to do his thing because this is the height of ineptness. Some of the East teams have gotten more competent. Some of the ones that we've had from an inept standpoint, like Charlotte, Detroit, the Wizards, they were like some really dumb, stupid, and now we just have the Nets. We have the Nets and the Kings and the Pelicans as our big three. I'm a hard under as Wellhouse, and I assume you are, too. Yes. Okay. Three enders.

I think this is the Hindenburg of NBA teams this year.

Also, it might be the number one fan base really mad at the team by December. Trying to think of a fan base that would be madder at the team.

Chicago is hard to beat.

Oh, yeah. Wow. Wait till we get to them.

No, but Chicago is just trapped in a loveless marriage. The hilarious thing. If you're a Chicago Bulls fan, you have no hope every year.

Zack, I think this was on your podcast, maybe with the guys yesterday. This is a team whose head coach went from Sacramento to a team that I think is going to be in the NBA Finals. Didn't take a break. I think that was on your pod. I think I heard that on your pod.

I don't even remember.

But yeah, my brow went from this goddamn garbage dump to becoming the head coach of a team that will be my pick for the NBA Finals in the East.

Also, why did they trade De'Aaron Fox? Why did they have to do it when they did it? What was the point of that?

Because he asked for it.

He asked. Okay, we'll talk about it after the season, De'Aaron. That's what the max money was for. Let's try to make it through this year. We'll talk this summer. Instead, they made this crappy trade that nobody liked. Well, just when you think you can't get worse, here's the Phoenix Suns. Over under 31. 5.

It's a low number.

New coach, Jordan.

Yeah, I like him.

They lost Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, among other players. They lost half their team. They added Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green. They have centers now, Mark Williams and Maliak.

Malawatch.

Malawatch.

Did I say it right?

Malawatch.

Yeah, Malawatch. Zack gave me the word.

They have to swap 2026 first with Washington, but might not have to because Washington's also going to be bad. Plus 680 for the playoffs, plus 200 for the plan. And they're paying Devon Booker. My math might be off, but I think he makes $143 million this year. Somewhere in there. 133, 143. Their starting lineup looks like Mark Williams, Royce O'Neill, Dylan Brooks, Devon Booker, and Jalen Green. How many minutes of League Pass are you going to watch of this team? Over under 50?

Oh, a lot.

Why?

This team intrigues me. Why? Because I think that they have something to prove. I'm actually interested in this team. I think that this is a curious experiment. Ishmael and George- How S&M is an experiment? Well, that... What, over Under 50 minutes of that? Making a snuff film is an experiment? No, we don't go that dark. I'm not that mean. I'm not that mean. Anyway.

I'm not that mean.

No, I actually think that this team with Booker is incented to try. It was so dead there last year, the breathing the new life into the I'm actually intrigued.

Counter. They could just suck and keep either their pick or Washington's pick and have a top five pick.

They don't have to do anything. That's going to happen, right?

Probably might happen. They're probably the third worst team in the West, second or third?

I don't think they keep... I think their pick swap is so complicated. I think Memphis has left them in pick swap rights in this morass of picks. I'm not sure how their pick swap works. They don't control their own pick.

I did so much research for this pod.

It's impossible.

It's a giant paragraph right here, but I just remember talking to people about how Memphis is almost more or less guaranteed a lottery pick between Washington's pick and Phoenix's pick. In any case, I don't care. Either way, I'm going under anyway. It doesn't matter to me. I'm with you where they got a lot of, and I I mean this in a good way, a lot of tweener forwards on the team that I'm interested in, like Brooks and O'Neill and Fleming, the kid they just drafted, and Igadoro and Dunn. They trend a little big, which is interesting because they can be switchy and whatever. It's the ball handling behind Booker That makes me really, really nervous. If he misses any amount of time, it's Point Jail in green, or it's like calling in Colin Gillespie for like super duper emergency 25 minutes of game duty. That makes me very nervous. The youth of the centers makes me very nervous. Mark Williams missing half of every season makes me nervous.

Mike Williams being frantically traded by his team, even though he's 23 years old.

There's some Dylan Brooks, like flip you for a future pick potential to Oh, yeah. Which I think he's a sneaky, nourishing trade candidate. Me, too. I think I'm with you that there's stuff to not hate here, and the number is very low, but I'm still going under because in this conference, I just have too many questions about the roster.

So I think you're right, Zack, on that, sons. It's super complicated, but it looks like Charlotte's involved, Memphis is involved. I think Memphis- They did a use of Nerkage Trade where they dumped some protection with something with 26.

Were you going over either way?

No, I wasn't going over.

No, I'm going to correct it. You're going over? Yes. I am going over. Yeah, I am. Because '32 and '50 is a terrible record, and they're still in that lot.

Absolutely. It's absurd. It's fine.

They won 33 games last year or 36 games last year.

With a roster where they hated, everybody hated each other and the coach. I mean, Coach Bud Light.

Can we talk about Jalen Green and Devon Booker sharing a backcourt together? I think it'll be fine. Fine in what context?

Ask Jordan-ott. This is a little bit of a- Jordan-ott is going to be a good coach.

I agree. Ask Jordan-ott. But this is the place where coaches go to die.

All that has been retread coaches. This is a new young- Terrible pick.

Look, literally- I love it. I actually love it.

Monty Williams made his mark with this. He went on to the ignominy that he deserved. But Monty Williams, there's a playbook for- Ignominy? That's a word.

You mean ignominy?

Say it however you want.

How about the correct way?

Pull it up on the Google machine.

So you're going over for the Suns. Over.

It's just 32 wins. That's a shit team with a shit record.

I think they are either the second or third worst West team. Lock it down.

I mean, that's fine.

I love that you're going over. I am going over. Because there's more talent here than people think. I agree. I just don't think it's enough to go over.

This guy who came from the MVP season in Europe or he played really good. Hayes Davis. Yeah, Hayes Davis.

Another Phoenix made the 2021 finals, and then they went 64 and 18 in 2022. Heading into that playoff, they were a 64-win team.

And Luka broke them. Luka broke the whole Luka broke them.

Kd Trade, Biel Trade, They lost all their pics and swaps plus Bridges, Cam Johnson. They lost Aiton. They went from 45, 49, 37 wins. They paid the highest luxury tax for three years.

The Aiton thing, the Nerkit, they also traded Kamara Zara in that trade. It's like a sneaky disaster trade within a trade.

It's one of the great, terrible three-year runs in the history of the league by a front office ownership, which would be a fun podcast for a rainy day. Just the all-time worst anti-heaters by a team. Just a three-year shit fest.

How many different King's stretches could we put?

It'd be tough. You'd have to pick Ares. They couldn't overlap the Ares. You couldn't take 2012 to '14 if '14 to '16 was in there. All right, we're going to go backwards and go through all of our pics. Okay. You guys tell me what the locks are. Oklahoma City, 62 and a half. We all went over. Lock.

I'm locking a 62 and a half over. I'm locking it. It's one of my... How many locks do am I required to lock up?

You can honestly do as many as you want, up to 10. I want a minimum number.

I don't want that many locks. Six is my minimum.

Six to eight. Yes.

Double lock for OKC.

I'm not locking it. I like the over.

You guys talk me into it. Denver Nuggets, 53. 5. House and I went over. Zack went under.

I am a lock on Denver over 53. 5. Okay.

Very exciting. Minnesota Timberwolves. All three of us are over at 49. 5.

Lock it.

Okay.

I'm joining Zack. I need more locks. I'm joining Zack on the lock for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I'm going to stay away. Okay. Portland, 34. 5, under, under, under for all three of us. Utah, 19. 5, under, under, under for all three of us.

I can't believe we all went under on 19. 5. Congratulations to the Utah Jazz.

Houston Rock, Rockets. 52 and a half, three-unders for us. It's a borderline lock. Lock it for me. Oh, you're locking that?

Locking the under, wow.

I want to lock it, but I really want to root for the Rockets to be good because I think we need one more really good basketball team. But that seems way too high. I'm going to stay away. San Antonio, 43 and a half. Over for me, over for Zack, under for house. I'm locking this down. 43. 5, over for me.

I'm not joining you.

Dallas Mavericks, 40. 5. Over for me, under for Zack, over for house. It's a lock for me.

You You said that. You looked right into my eyes.

I'm locking it. Memphis, 39. 5, under for me, under for Zack, over for house.

I thought I went over on Memphis.

I went over on Memphis. I'll switch you to over.

I didn't even remember you going under.

Under. New Orleans, 30 and a half. Threeovers.

Obviously, in franchise, you can trust to that level.

What's the go wrong?

Clippers, threeovers.

That's unbelievable. Someone should just go under on principle.

Lakers, under 47 and a half for me and for Joe House. Over for Zack Lo.

You hear that Lakers fans? Lakers.

Right into the camera, he says, Lakers. He It has it right into the camera.

Golden State Warriors, 47. 5, three overs.

Lock. I already locked it. I pre-locked it.

Yeah, you did lock it.

I'm not going to lock it because of the old guys. But I am going to lock this. Next one. Sacramento 35 and a half. It is three o'clock.

That's the legacy book. Are you locking that one, too? No, I'm not locking it. You're not locking it? No. What are you doing? They're so weird. It's a disaster.

I have four different locks. I have a combination lock, I have a bike lock, I have a chain lock, I have a tire lock, every possible lock.

The vagina lock.

For Doug Christie. That's right. I forgot about I got that story. Phoenix, 31 and a half. Under for me. Under for Zack, over for house. Lock it up.

I only have two locks, so I'd like to lock the clippers as well. I'm applying a lock of the clippers over 49. Nine and a half. It's not retroactive. We're talking about it now. I have Denver, Minnesota, and the clippers as lockovers.

You know what? Since we're going backwards on locks, I'm going to lock in Denver over 53. 5. Yeah. As well with my guy, Nikola Jokić, my favorite non-sulting.

Are you on Jokić Island?

I'm Jokić continent. That's it for part one of the NBA Overrunners. Part two will be the East. It's going up about 12: 15 hours after you listen or watch to this one, which you can hopefully watch on Spotify or wherever you get your pods. Thanks to Chris. Thanks to Eduardo. Thanks to Ronick as well. We will see you for part two.

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