Transcript of A Crazy Good NBA Rookie Class With J. Kyle Mann, Plus Tua’s Cleveland Adventure, and NFL Week 7 Picks With Joe House

The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by Fandil Sportsbook. We are also brought to you by The Ringer podcast Network. New rewatch was coming on Monday. Last one for Redford Month. It is a quiz show, an awesome movie nominated for an Oscar. Brian Koppelman has been requesting it for at least five years, so he's finally getting his wish doing it with Koppelman. That will be on Monday. If you missed Sneakers last Monday, really, really fun one. Broke down Ben Kingsley's Running for a good five minutes. So if you want Ben Kingsley Running takes, get ready because I had them. So you got that. And then Sunday night, Prestige TV, final episode of Task. Right after it ends, you can listen or watch to me and Rob Mahoney and Joanne Robinson break down everything we thought about, not only the final episode, but the season itself. I am in Boston, Massachusetts right now. It's cold. I feel like a wuss because I grew up here on the East Coast. I spent my first 32 years here. Now, when I come back and it's cold and windy, I'm just freezing the whole time. I've incorporated this in some of my sports gambling, particularly with one game we're going to talk about later with Joe House.

When you go from the warm weather to the cold, this is why I moved to Southern California. When I come back, I just feel like a wuss every time. Anyway, great to be back. First, J. Kyle Mann. He's coming on to talk about rookies because we talked about a little in the Over Under podcast, but not enough. I feel like we needed a whole segment talking about how great this rookie class is. That's first. Then Joe House comes on. We're doing our Over Under's postmortem. Then after that, Ringer 107. That includes our single favorite game of the 2025 slate so far. That is all next. Let's take a break and then pro-jump. This is the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on. Fandool is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live. Your way, so you can your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all. When you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts, recently. Guess what I did? Use Fandool. Super fun.

Download the Fandool app or go to fandil. Com/bs to get started. Must be 21 plus, President Select States, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Get in a problem, call 1-800, get in, or visit rg-help. Com. Call 888-789-777, or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut. All right, taping this late Thursday afternoon East Coast time. I'm on my second coffee of the day. Duncan Donuts, not a sponsor. I don't think they've ever... I don't know why. I don't know how much Dunkin' Donuts I need to drink before they sponsor something. But anyway, Dunkin' Donuts.

You think by now? I mean, seriously, it makes sense.

Honestly, those ungrateful jerks, they should Something. I should have the Duncan Donuts studio by now. Instead, I have the Aspiration Dome in my back house now. Aspiration Studios. Jay Kyle, man. What's up? Nobody knows more about the draft classes and the rookies. I mentioned this on Tuesday Today's pod that I really love the rookies this year. And it's so different than last year. And we did a little Dylan Harper stuff, and we did some flag stuff, obviously, and some, but I really wanted a deep dive. I thought this was worth an entire segment. I want to start with Harper as the second pick. I talked about him Tuesday that he just jumped out of the TV to me immediately. Like, holy shit, this guy's ready to be something now. Size, the body, the lefty, real patience already. Seems like he could play off the ball or with the ball. And I was just blown away. I don't know whether that was too small of a sample size, but what did you see with Dylan Arpher?

Well, watching him in this context, and we can get to Ace Bailey, I guess, in a little bit Two, it's a similar thing is that they just played in a crowded elevator offense last year at Rutgers. I didn't blame the coach. I didn't blame any of those people. They had a they had a major roster turnover that was super heavy, and none of their teammates really drew any respect. So the thing that popped to me immediately when I'm watching Dylan in these first few games is just... He had a play where he got a back cut for a wide open layup, and I was surprised they didn't call time out and just be like, Dylan, that's what a wide open layup off of a cut feels I was like, he had to be- Enjoy this.

Savor this.

He had to be because I was looking back at his synergy stats, and I was like, he never got wide open cuts. Ace was always playing in the crowd, too. So I think he's probably enjoying that. But there's a little bit of Some of these guys who are crazy, crazy, downhill talents. You mentioned his poise in the paint. Number one, I don't think that... I was thinking back about it. I was like, I don't think that I have watched a more talented scoring guard with poise in the paint since probably Shay in 18. Shay was just a layup monster. I think Dylan is a little bit different in that. Shay was a little more angular, slithery. He's added some of that physical stuff. The big shoulder bumps. I don't want to piss off OKC fans, but that stuff he's developed. But Dylan already plays that way. He's really, really physical. And they already had some plays where he wasn't even cutting. He was almost catching it like he was on a jet sweep, and he'd get into the lane, and he's so physical. And Wimby draws so many eyes that you can already just see, will he be able to knock down open jumpers?

That'll be a thing. But he's going to be able to roam and add a lot of value, even if he's not their primary, even if he doesn't get a whole lot of primary point guard reps for them.

Yeah, I think the overthink for me this summer was just thinking about the right roster around Wemby. And all right, now you have Fox and Castle and Harper. None of those guys are knock down shooters. And that was the glass half empty. And then you watch all those guys with Wemby Now, and you're just like, holy shit, athletes and just blue chippers, right? And I think the thing I didn't really fully think about with Harper was how ready he was athlet. Because we've seen guards come in and either they're skinny in their first year, even somebody like Kate. I thought Kate had... I know his teams were bad, but he also seemed pretty choppy. We had some actual questions about, What is this? Is this somebody who could be an awesome lead ball handler? Harper, my questions were, Can he shoot? Can he play off the ball? It's just clear he's going to be on the court for them. I actually think they're going to have a pretty interesting numbers problem for them with Fox and with Castle and with Harper. They're going to be able to juggle those minutes, but they have more guys after that.

So I think ceiling-wise, that's why we all went... Two of us went over on the Spurs, house went under, but I went way over. I really feel like if he's going to be able to give them 28 to 30 minutes a game, maybe that's too high. Maybe let's say 25, whatever, somewhere in that 25 to 30, but at a high level, they just didn't have anybody like that last year.

Is there a decent chance that they're the best team in this this year. I don't remember what you guys- I think it's in play.

We talked about the division odds for them and about how Houston is up here at 52. Now, we got to talk about Reid quickly because I watched them preseason with him two nights ago, and he's just firing now. He's like, Man, it's gone. I'm fucking firing. The bench was really into it, and there was a little different demeanor to him. That made me a little worried about my under. But yeah, I think the ceiling of San Antonio with Wemby, if he's a top five guy, Houston is not going to have a top five guy. If the pieces around him are good, I don't know. I think they're going to be really hard to play. You have that many athletes, plus you have rim protection, plus you have some size you can bring him with him now. They have a lot of answers.

Wemby is just flat out distracting. I was trying to watch the rookie. Any game you watch with him on there, I sent you a clip of he was in a boss or in a handoff in that jazz game, and he was on the on the other side of the screen defender on the other side of Nerkich, and he just reached into the frame and stripped the ball off of, I guess it was Ace. And Ace had this look like, What just happened? He's just a ridiculous distraction. But yeah, I think it's very much in play that they're going to be so athletic on the perimeter, man. And in terms of thinking about their roster for Dylan, if you're in this position, and this was the argument that I made at the time, I'm just thinking of it simply like, if I have a chance to get a player or a talent like Dylan, does he fit with Wemby? That was all. I was like, I'll figure out everything else later.

Do I have these two guys? I could figure out the other 10 later.

Yeah.

So my answer is already he fits in.

Yeah. I think the thing with guys who have the ball in their hands is you always have to start from this first. The square one is like, are you going to be hurried? I know you like Yaka Chones. I did, too. I'm sure we'll talk about him, but that That was something at Summer League. Guys that come into the league who are very used to hitting first, like Luka is the all-time example of he came in and he was like, Yeah, I'm going to punch everyone first. Dylan is the same thing. It's just like he never seems hurried around the basket, and he's just really angular and clever. I was noticing, too, he has some of that. You see some of those guys shoot layups, high glass layups off the wrong foot. Dylan does this thing where he'll go wrong footed and wrong handed, and he'll get under and just get away from guys. He's just really sneaky and really crafty. The great thing for them is that they don't have to put a ton of pressure on him. They can really bring him along slowly and get all the value without getting the waste that might come with dumping too much on him too early.

Yeah, I'm Why did you mentioned the crafty because I think that's the thing that really resonated with me. They had one play. Granted, it's preseason, who cares? But he had one play where he was on the ball on the right side and he's a lefty. He went baseline and did this herky-jerky and forth thing, got lower to the rim, did more herky-jerky, and then finally got a shot off. I was like, wow, this kid's 19. That seemed like a move you make when you're 26. I feel like I probably underrated last June how important it was that they got the number two pick because it was so weird with the records thing was... I know you guys, you talked about, you and Tate talked about it nonstop. The records thing was so weird. It was almost like the ceiling in the basement, you couldn't even come up with what it was because it was like that was just too weird. But clearly, when you talk about guards coming in the league and being good right away who have the ball a lot, it's pretty unique. And then the other thing is if Castle goes up a notch, now you're talking about, okay, and they have all these trade pieces.

So I'm with you. To me, them versus Houston, I think it's a lot closer than the odds. They're eight wins lower with the overrunners in Houston. I think it's way closer than that.

Yeah. Houston Houston has a little experience on them in a couple of spots, but I'm sure the Ahmed love, and I'm right along with everybody else. I love watching Ahmed Thompson. I mean, play him at the center. That's the way I'm thinking about it. But I'm sure Steph Castle was over there thinking, I got something for this guy. I'm sure he's like, I was the rookie of the year. It's just been interesting how big of a gap there's been. And Castle brings a lot of the playmaking stuff, too. It's just interesting what the shadow of Wimby affords towards them on offense and defense. I was watching that Miami game, and there was a particular play where Wimby, he was doing his thing where he causes big guys to just look up and go, No, I'm not going to do that. And you could just see all of the other guys on the perimeter just basically become free safeties who have five steps on the ball. There was one where I think it was like, it might be Kalele Ware was just stuck, and Kalele Ware is gigantic. I don't know if you've ever seen him in person.

He was like, I can't go up with this. So he turns and looks and you could just see that... I can't remember who intercepted the pass for the Spurs, but he just had an easy run to go intercept it. So they just have a lot of... Having Wemby just changes the conversation in a lot of different ways. That's a really good point.

That's That's a really good point, because then the other piece of that is when you have Wemby behind you, you can gamble way more and be way more aggressive 25 feet from the basket because you have some protection. They're down to plus 370 to win the division. I still think that. I Mav 6 to 1 is probably a reach with how long Kyrie's out. But yeah, I think that division is a little more open. The other thing I'll say with Harper, and this is like, whatever, this is a classic Bill Simmons ridiculous point. He carries himself like a star, and you notice him immediately. There's certain guys like that where you just see him walking around and there's... For a 19-year-old, he's handsome, he's filled out already. I felt the same way about Thompson on Houston, which I was like, I don't know about these guys. And then you watch them on a court and it's like, Oh, yeah, that guy's got it. Sometimes there's just these guys that are like, Oh, yeah, that guy's got it. And the way he carries himself, he's in this weird situation. He's not starting point guard. He's on Wemby's team.

You would think he would be a little... But he's not. He's not like that at all. He's cool. Then we didn't even talk about Flag yet when we're talking about rookie jumping. Flag as this all-purpose Swiss Army knife. What do we need, guys? Oh, Davis isn't playing a knife? Fine. I'll play power forward. Oh, should I just play point guard tonight? I don't even know how you could assign a dollar value to what he brings in as a guy in a rookie contract. But this is what he's doing. He's like a max contract guy, basically. But they got him for 1. 8% odds in the lottery. Unbelievable.

He's just ready to roll right off the assembly line. I got to the point around the draft where I reached this point where I was thinking about this fall, and I was like, well, blah, blah, blah. And I was just like, what are you talking about? Why are you overthinking this? I was just like, what? Every single step of the way, and I've done a few shows with Mav's people, and I'm just trying to just give them an idea of maybe what's coming from having watched him in high school and stuff. And it's like, he's not stagnant in any way, shape or form. Every single step of the way. And I was like, I'm just done underestimating him. And you're talking about he has a little ways to go in terms of his set up moves and getting to the basket. But he's also very clever and crafty about the things that he does know how to do. If you watch him, he's really good at giving a bump with his back and then turning in face. And he just doesn't dance a lot with the ball wastefully. His shot looks good. He came off of a couple of...

The shot looks really good. Yeah, he came off a couple of, I don't know what they were flex or whatever type of screen it was, but he was moving left or right and hit a great shot. But you just watch him, it's the same thing, too, as Harper is they played a lineup. Their lineups are going to be really interesting. They played a lineup that was Cooper, Dilo, Clay, PJ, and Lively. Because the Hornets went ahead on their first unit, if I'm not mistaken. They put in that lineup and they just surged back. It was just really fun for a minute. Say what you want about Dilo. If you control him, I love all the stuff you said, and I'm with you on it, but it's like if you can control what Dilo is, Cooper is already mature enough to guide an offense like that.

It's a little like Zion, where there's going to be situations where it's like, I guess we're playing him at center. I guess he's our point guard now. He's going to be all over the map. The one thing I've noticed from watching him at Duke last year, even in the preseason stuff, it feels like he's more sophisticated offensively with some stuff like going to the basket, shooting off the wrong foot, some of the explosive stuff. It just feels like he's added some stuff to his bag that I wasn't positive he'd have. He felt way more closer to Tatum than I was expecting. I'm not talking about Tatum last year before the injury when he was one of the best sport players in the league, but probably like year, two, year, three, Tatum, when he was just starting to put together some off some dribble, dribble move to the basket stuff. First year, he was basically in the corner. We were basically begging him to take the ball. Then he started adding stuff. Flag offensively, it seems like he's where year three Tatum was, which I was really surprised by it. But did you notice that?

I mean, he's very... He and Tatum are on different paths with... I think that, and I've thought this for a while, that Cooper is ahead of him in terms of his spatial sense and his passing and things like that. But I think that Tateum was a little wigglier with a live dribble at the same age. So it's just like they're coming from different spots. We need more size.

Three more inches.

And at 25 years old, maybe they'll end up at a similar spot. But I just like... I like all of the different ways they can use him. He did get a little... He did this at Summer League, too, where there were a couple of times where you could tell he was really enjoying the show, and I'd never seen him do that before. At Summer League, he was looking around, all the players are on the front row. He makes a couple of risky passes and plays. He threw a couple behind the back passes in that preseason game. Granted, preseason Summer League, they're both unserious. You're experimenting, you're tinkering, things like that. But he made a couple of plays like that. I was like, What exactly is he doing there? But I don't know, man. I just don't put anything past him anymore. I think he plays within himself. He's just a right-play machine. He's also a really smart... The defensive stuff is translated immediately, too.

And the competitiveness is almost crazed. He's trying in these preseason games where you're like, Dude, settle down. The reason I brought up Tatum, what do you think he averaged in year two for the self-explained 31. 1 minutes a game?

Oh, that's tough.

How many points a game do you think he had.

What? That would have been 17, 18?

No, 18, 19. Second year.

God. I don't know. 15?

Yeah, 15. 7. Good guess. He was making one and a half threes a game, 45% field goal and 2. 9 free throws a game. And then year three, that 2020 season, that ended up getting stopped by COVID. But that was when all of a sudden the free throws are close to 5, 23. 4 points a game. Flag seems at least a little ahead of year two Tatum, but not where year three, Tatum is yet. And he's not going to have the same size, but he's a maniac. And as you said, he's like... Tatum always had a question of when he's going to learn to make the right play, what's he going to learn to make the right play? What's he going to do? And then he finally started to unlock that as the 2020s went along. And then last year, I thought he was really good with that stuff. Flag seems like he has it immediately.

I think this Mavs roster, there's just some funny, ironic stuff going on with the fact that they have this insane collection of elite play finishers. Gaffer and AD and Lively are all elite or borderline elite lob threats. Clay is one of the best catching soup. I was thinking today, I was like, it's like that episode of the twilight Zone where the guy has all the books but no glasses. It's like he has this insane resources and assets at his disposal. And it's like, if they just had Kyrie, it's like, where are they going to to end and warp the defense with some of these bigger lineups. That's why I think it popped so much when they had Dilo in there because AD might have one of the bigger questions of just how... It's not necessarily naturally implied, the lively AD and Gaffard thing. How's that going to balance out because they can put some lineups out there that could be pretty interesting.

Yeah, ironically, AD feels like he could be trade bait to get something, and they'd probably be a little more interesting. But I like the way they are. They're such a I think they're going to be really hard to play. And then having Flag just be able to guard dudes in the perimeter. It's already incredible to watch him on defense, fighting over screens, jumping through. He's already one of the higher-end defenders we have. Edgecom, neither of us have watched.

You haven't seen a lot of Edgecom. I'm still catching up on him.

I think we're fine with that because it seems like he's going to be an energy guy the first year. Kniple. Let's do it. And the Hornets in general, because there's a couple other rookies on that team, too, including Calkbrenner, who seems like he's going to play like real... What pick was he?

I don't know what off top of my head.

Was he like end of first round, early second round?

I think. He was Yeah, he was, I think, early second round.

That dude's going to play actual minutes.

Yeah. I'm not surprised by that. I do think that in a really competitive scenario, he's probably your rotation big.

On this team, he's 40 minutes a game center because they don't have any centers.

Well, Rob and I were talking about this last night, and I was like, they threw some lineups out there. They threw out a Bridges, LaMelo, Miller, Kohn, and I think KultBerner might have been out there, but it was the The ball was humming. I mean, it was... Lamelo, I was joking about this on Twitter that... Well, first I was telling Rob, I was like, I think this is going to be one of my League Pass teams because they're just absurd. Oh, fuck it. I'm in. But Rob was like, Well, he was It's like, dude, that front court is just one of the worst. And it's true, it's going to be... They are going to hemorrhage easy points on the glass. They're going to have a heart. They're just going to give up a lot of easy points. But LaMelo, man, I go back and forth between I've defended him a lot. Last night I was watching, I wrote down it. I literally wrote in my notes, The Hornets should find a way to trade LaMelo. And then he just rattles off five plays that no one else can make. So it's just that team, and it makes you wonder if Cohn, I would love to give a lie detector test to some of LaMelo's teammates because Kahn's used to play in a very regimened, like right play, we do this, this is the sensible.

This level of wildness, I would be curious.

He's in a freelance jazz band now.

Basically.

I agree with you. I think they're going to be an amazing League Pass team. And I like their four. I don't really care who the fifth guy is. I think the four will be fun to watch. I have no idea if they'll get stops. And Knippel is who he thought he was. He's in the right spots. He's a dangerous three-point shooter already. He rebalanced. They're going to actually need him to rebound. So no surprises. We were all in on him. Ace Bailey was a surprise to me. We talked about this a little on Tuesday, but the size and the ease that he's getting his points. I don't know if he's going to be able to do anything else, but it seems like him and then Trey Johnson, ironically, who taken right after him, those guys are just going to be able to score immediately, which is no small thing for rookies. Rookies don't just come in and throw up 25 in their third game, especially at the non-point guard or the small forward, whatever Ace is. I don't even know. But any surprises with ace other than what you already said about the telephone booth thing?

Yeah, I mean, it's just he's coming in, and these are the things we knew he could do. I mean, if he has space and you let him catch and shoot, this was the case at Rutgers. He's going to score, man. He didn't have the space, and he didn't have the space and he didn't have the scheme to do that. I'm sure that Will Hardy knew immediately what to do with him and that he comes out there. The other thing for me, too, is, I mean, you were talking about comparing him like the early KD. I think that's everybody's temptation, usually. I've heard people say like Richard Lewis. I like that. I probably should have included that, but he's a little more like an MPJ type of run something for him, let him be a shot maker. Granted, anytime he dribbles the ball, I think he had one play where he tried to attack a closeout. His just awareness help and things like that. It's just a little ways away. He's just not quite ready to do that stuff.

Can we agree this is the perfect team for him? Although I guess they don't have the right point guard to set him up.

Are the Jazz a perfect team in any way? I don't know.

It's just like he's going to play minutes and get shots and make mistakes. Yeah, for sure.

And they have a lot to gain by him even being wacky and letting loose and being messy. I was going to say another thing, too, is that I think Walter Clayton Jr. Might be better than Keante George right now. I bet he He was watching Summer League and being like, Fuck. He just looks really smooth and steady out there. He's probably older. Is he older?

He might be older than Keante. He might be. He's like 23.

I like him. But yeah, with Ace, everything that he does is just his superpower is the one-step thing. And that's what I was saying going up to the draft. It's like, if he has a step to go after a chase down block, he'll do something incredible. If he has a step to go catch a lob, if he has the room to show off that athleticism, if you let him jump and get to his shot, he's going to make it. So, yeah, he's going to have some moments this year. I wasn't surprised.

Well, all we care about is whether somebody's a fun league past team when they're a non-playoff team. And in that case, I will test them out multiple times. Try it out. We'll see how it goes. Trey Johnson, too. Just house is all in already. He's just a professional scorer. So, Fears at number seven. That one worried me a little. They're definitely given the car keys and have him... Who knows? It's early. But that one, I don't know. That seemed pretty high for him at number seven. And especially, it does feel like there's a distinct drop off between those first six guys in the seventh pick. And I don't know if he makes or not, but did you see anything with him?

Nothing that really... I mean, for me, watching him in the first couple of preseason games and watching him in summer league, it was like, you see all the positive. It's just in a serious game. I mean, he can get to spots. He's very fast. He's a pretty good lob thrower. It's just, is he going to be able to shoot pull of threes? Is he going to get mercilessely picked on on defense? Because that threshold is pretty cruel, no matter how good you are. But I was going through early in the season, you do this thing where you try not to overreact to the first couple of returns because fierce was somebody I was lower on. I think I had him in the 20s. And then because of those things. And I'm just going line by I'm like, I had him low, didn't I? But then you just look and you're like, all these guys are showing signs that they're going to be good. Yeah, and even Young Hansen for Portland, that was one that I was lower on. It might ultimately be just like a lot of people got duped by the lack of information, and Portland just had a crazy advantage with the tape because apparently the tape was just really hard to get on Young, and it was really limited on synergy.

So you had to be a detective and go get that stuff. But yeah, this class is looking like it's going to be good. I mean, you don't want to overreact, but it's looking good.

The fear's problem, that's been a bust type of profile, right? Those guards that they don't have a ton of size. They're fast, but what's their calling card? So we'll see with them. Just zoom in through. I saw Young. I called him Yang for the entire Overrunners podcast. I'll get it down. But he's clearly something.

Yeah.

I don't know what he is, but it's like, I just signed me up for more. Clayton looks like he's going to play right away. And then this Berenger on Minnesota seems like he might actually play and fits the profile of somebody who succeeds on a winning team. Long energy Athletic, rim runner, shop locker. Don't ask him to do anything else, but they needed a guy like that. So I feel like he's going to play. And then we watched the little Maluch on a... Malayak. Malayatch? Malawatch. Malawatch? Yeah. We watched some of him on Tuesday night. It was interesting because he was playing against DeAndre Ayton. They're very similar bodies. It was funny. They got rid of DeAndre Ayton, so they could basically take the next DeAndre Ayton. But he really tries and he can second jump, which I think when you look at somebody on that size, if you had that one jump and then the play is over for you as other side, he was able to get back up. There's something there. I liked him in college, but I thought he fit in in an NBA game. Have you seen him?

Yeah. My worries with him started. I'm worried about some of these faster bigs, like jumping, getting to the ball quicker than him. I think for him, it's going to be a question of just learning how to wager in a smart way whenever he's in space with a really fast player, learning how to stay down and let his length just be his strength, because the more he goes for things. I mean, Brook Lopez mastered that. There's a lot of guys who have it. He's a smart kid. I could see him doing that. But yeah, he's even bigger than Aiton, right? I mean, I think he's longer than Aiton. I'm pretty positive.

He's a little longer, but they're around the same size.

Yeah.

The only other guys I wanted to mention, and then you tell me who your favorite random guy was. There might be something there with Jace Richardson. And I didn't have him on my bingo card, but I'm monitoring that one because he's unlike anybody they have in that roster. But I'm just intrigued to see if he plays. And then González on the Celtics. They keep throwing darts at the board of these athletic wings who can't really shoot but really try hard. They failed with Jordan Walsh. But Gonzales, I think they've been impressed by, and I think he's shooting a little better than they thought. And he's like an absolute maniac. I mean, he's actually crazed. And I'm wondering if he might play. But those were the two that jumped out. Who's jumped out for you at post-lattery?

I was going to say the Gonzales thing. I was going to second that. Everything that I've heard from them is a lot of enthusiasm. They're really, really loving him. I think they saw his upside as higher than consensus. And he is a maniac. He reminds me of that just pesky, annoying, high-motored guy that like, OKC would take. And there's been some, we've talked about it before, that like, OKC in Boston have some overlap in their personnel preferences that you've been able to see. But yeah, I really I liked him a lot. Neat Clifford is a guy that I've gone to bat for. If you were going to just siphon any little positive thing for the Kings, it's that I really do like Clifford, and I think Keegan Murray is good, obviously, and I do think that Devon Carter is going to be worth keeping around. I think those three guys I was joking about when Clifford was playing well, it's going to be the shame when Sacramento punts him for like Kuminga in January. But let's hope they don't do that. But he just looks like an out there. He can come at you from a lot of different ways.

He can really pass the ball. He's a really good movement shooter. I just think he's going to be able to play for them really quickly.

Well, now he gets to learn from Russell Westbrook.

I could not believe that.

He gets to learn how to lead a team.

Great mentorship in story here for him. Yeah.

And then... Oh, the Nets is the last thing. Have you watched them?

Yeah.

The Rookish Morgaspart. Did anybody How did he jump out?

I mean, Wolf actually looked better in the preseason games than he looked in summer league. To me, the impression that I've gotten is that they feel pretty good about the shooting upside of Deman when he comes back. But Wolf looked really comfortable. He had one play, I think, where he was attacking Drew Ubex. I mean, I might as well stick with it. I had him pretty high. I had him higher than Malawatch, I think. I think I had him 13 and Malawatch 14. No, I mean, he attacked the basket at one point to the right and came back to his left and then shot like a lefty soft left-handed shot in the lane. It's just all these Brooklyn guys, man. I mean, if you want to talk about the shooting challenge of a lifetime, they drafted four guys who like to be on the ball, and they all are questionable shooters. I guess if you get maybe one or two out of the four, that can get to the point where they make a shot. But the team, I agreed with you all from the overrunner pot. I mean, it's just an abject disaster.

All right, that's our preseason rookie blink test. I guess the big headlines are Harper and Flag, specifically. Really, as a combo, it might be a pretty special twosome to get two guys in the draft to have a chance. I I think both of them have first-team All-MBA potential. Flag probably is a safer bet, but Harper, definitely. You think San Antonio putting him with Wemby together and just that being your foundation. You're pretty good if you can keep Wemby on the court. But in general, this draft seems really like a possible A+ draft, right? When we're talking about 21st century draughts, I think it's going to be one of the story lines of the year.

What about Yaka Chanas, though? I thought for Sure. Did you have any takeaways on him? Listen, I went all in.

He had one bad summer league game, and everybody made fun of me. And guess what? I'll be vindicated because that guy went seven picks later than he should have, and it was fucking I'm stupid. I don't know how Miami pulled that one-off. But yeah, he is who he thought he was. He's fun to play with. He's going to be really devastating in pick and rolls, and I think he's going to play right away for them. I don't know, with this hero being out for 25 games, 30 games, he might actually get real minutes for them, and we're going to find out almost right or he's going to get thrown in the fire. If you're talking about throwing in the fire, guys, he's probably one of the few that a team is actually going to need, I think, especially if Rozier, I guess, it's just whatever the hell happened with him.

Yeah. But- He looked like he had real chemistry with wear when he was out there. It's just like, you want to say the Pajimski thing because he's got the reddish blondeish hair. You want to do the esthetic bias thing where you're like, now that looks like that. He's a better passer, though. It's close. They're both pretty creative. I don't think it's a ding on either one of them to say they're both in the same, but he's going to be dared to shoot, but he's young. If you're riding him really hard as your primary guy, I think you're going to come away frustrated. But if he's just moving within the teeth of their offense, and he's got good hands on defense, too, I don't know. I think he's just going to be a nice rotation guy for them.

All right, before we go, give us 40 five seconds on why Reid Sheppard is the X-Factor of the 2025-2026 season, because this was your guy. You were all in on him being good.

As another white guy who's 6'1 and from Kentucky, I felt like I took a personal interest in Reid Sheppard Rappered. Shocker there.

You threw the name Mark Price around, was thrown around at some point. You threw a couple of big names around with him last year.

I did. I don't think he's as wiggly as a pull-up shooter as Price. I think that was off. But I think he's more of a... I wrote Something before the season started where I was just talking about how they might use him. People are just assuming he's just going to be pounding the ball all the way up there at the top. I think if they have him be super aggressive with his shot, just start with that proposition. And then if he doesn't have a shot initially, he's running off screens and things like that. I know they want him... Three-point attempts is a great stat for them. They're not as obsessed with the mix. If he gets them up and establishes that audacity for their offense, that's something that they can use. And you've seen him, he's being hyper aggressive. He's not afraid. He's a really good connected passer. I just think it's going to take some time before they can really lean on him. But, man, yeah. He turned the ball over immediately twice in a row when I turned the game on the other night, but he steadied the ship. But that's... Yeah, man.

I mean, as long as he's aggressive from three and not a liability on defense, I think that's a good starting point for them with him.

One thing I noticed with them, they just put him in the right corner, and you have to ran it at the top, and you have Thompson floating around being Thompson. And then just Sheppard, he's just pulling the defense. You have to. You can't leave him because he's got the quick release.

He'll stand up by the hash mark sometimes. They'll have him post stand up there 38 feet away. And it's like you got to take a step towards them.

He's got that rare thing where if he gets the pass right, he could just flick a three. The no dip. Yeah. There's five guys in the league. Curry, obviously, I think he probably invented it. But there's five guys in the league who could just do the quickies. So they got that. But anyway, it made me think, I wonder if they're just going to use him almost as an off the ball. You have to worry about this guy over here guy to basically open up the rest of the space for them. I still don't I don't understand how their offense is going to work with guys who just... I don't want to say ball stoppers, but I'll say ball stoppers. I want to see who's the glue guy that combines everything. It's a big question I have with them.

I think they'll try to go get Dinwiddie. I feel like Emei would kill Dinwiddie. I can't imagine that relationship working. No, I mean, I think the last thing I'll say about the Rockets, if you were going to give one positive, and I said this in this piece, is that I think the guys making decisions off the catch, that is one area they upgraded. If you're talking about Jalen Green and Dylan Brooks, and you're talking... You get Durant, Durant's a better pastor. I think Sheppard is a better pastor, just a little smaller. So that's one thing that you can work with. But I think that initial on-ball to off-ball toggle thing is something that he can do now.

All right. Kyle, man, what's your next thing for the Ringer?

We're starting up draft stuff, wrapping up a gigantic project that I'm hopefully going to be able to announce soon. And then, yeah. So we're just going to Start covering the college season and the rookies.

Awesome. Good to see you. Thanks.

You too.

This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. Every football season, the same thing happens. The game somehow makes everybody really hungry. Quarterback scramble is clearly a sign for breakfast burritos. Yeah. Turnover, suddenly dessert at 2: 00 PM doesn't sound so crazy. Wing formations, well, those can only mean Buffalo wings as if they're ever not in play. Even the goalpost, start looking suspiciously like French fries. It's almost like football sending a message to eat more food. Yeah, the good news Uber Eats makes those cravings easy to satisfy with game day deals all season long. From wings and pizza to chips, drinks, and even last minute grocery runs. Don't sleep on those. You'll find savings on all your favorites delivered straight to your door. Order now on Uber Eats. All right, Joe House is here. It's Thursday afternoon. I'm on the East Coast. We've already done four and a half hours of content this week, but just in a normal week, if our pics had been going as badly as they had been, maybe I just bump you for the week. Our house was on the NBA Overrunners pod. I'll just get somebody else for this week.

But we had a really good week, though. We were four and own. Vernon was the own one on our pics.

Four and own. Trial separation would have made sense. But, buddy, when we fuck in, it's good. We have to stick with it.

We got to stick together. Let's talk NBA over and under the aftermath, really fast. Okay, great. Because FanDuel I talk to them because they do the Super Boost every year. It looks like this is going to be the Super Boost, and they're going to be pushing this starting on Friday. Here we go. The Milwaukee Bucks, a team that you, me, and Zack all agreed on as locks at 42. 5. Triple lock. Triple lock. 45 plus wins for the Super Boost because we need something. Golden State, 45 plus. We all were over on them at 47. 5, so we're getting a little value there. And then OKC, who's over under a 62. 5 wins. We all love that. That's 60 plus. Bucks, 45 plus. That's going to be the hardest one. Warriors, 45 plus. Okc, 60 plus. That's going to be around plus 415 plus 420 range. And with the Parlay Boost token gets bumped up into the plus 535, 40 range, however it nets out. So that's the boost. And we need the Bucks. Is That's basically how this needs to go.

So the question is, who's going to fuck us? You think the answer would be the Bucks?

Well, they would have to overachieve three wins beyond their... Or two and a half wins beyond their over and under number.

We think that 45 is probably the right number, especially with some developments that we're going to see coming in the East.

Yeah, we had them in the 4-5-6 range in the East. And I was thinking about some of the pics we had after and some of the arguments we had. What would be your do-over? Because for me, I think I'm not positive I was in the right spot with Orlando with the under. It was 50 and a half, and I think I had too many overs, and now I'm looking at that going, why did I go under on those guys? I didn't feel good about it to begin with.

I'm queezy about Orlando. I feel like I'm not that concerned about that. It depends on 100% health. Well, why did that team with all those young guys have bad injury luck last year. Franz Wagner is young, Paula was young, and Sugs is young. And Sugs is not starting the season on the basketball team.

Well, that's why I backed up.

I don't think that we were in the wrong direction in terms of Orlando. The one that I personally would do over is San Antonio, because the way that the West is shaping up, you and Zack both went over on San Antonio. I went under. I don't like going under based on a thesis that depends on a little bit of injury, bad luck, but I did it. But I would do that over because I'd like to be on the side of just rooting for the Spurs to be awesome and for Wemby to be awesome all season.

I thought you were going to be a coward and actually flip your pick on that. Which, by the way, Zack did. What did he do? He added a locker. Zack had one. He did a 180 on one of his picks, which I thought was pretty funny.

It's okay. That's our first time together.

Well, the biggest tragedy of our podcast, we were very, very, very, very, very And they got spiteful and mad and upset that we did that. And they signed Russell Westbrook the next day. And they deprived us of the ability to talk about how fucking crazy of a signing that is for a Rundant podcast. It's like, why are you doing that? That would have been five minutes of content. How dare they?

It would have been tremendous because they told us, just suck it. We're not giving you anything else to add to your highly inappropriate snark from their perspective.

Here's the other thing they did. Keegan Murray, who's starting at the season hurt, I mean, he'll come back. They gave him $140 million for five years. Oh, my God.

How do we miss this? Can we do the worst contracts, the NBA worst contract next week?

We do it after the All-Star break every year. And I'll tell you something, Keegan submitted his resume for top 10.

Right on first week of the season, we got a resume in.

Those are my least favorite contracts when it's a guy who can't be an All-Star and you're paying him basically right under that $30 million a year. Those are the ones... Like from Patrick Williams and the Bulls when they gave him $90 million for five. That range, basically from Patrick Williams to Keegan Murray is like in the fucking graveyard of bad contracts.

Yeah. And it's the team not having a firm conviction, so they kick the can with a shit contract.

And he's one of those, he seems fine on paper, guys.

Yeah.

You watch them and you're like, oh, hypothetically, I like them. There's some other people like this. I probably like Jabbari Smith more than most, but Jabbari Smith, for the most part, has been a hypothetical guy versus an actual guy. Well, this really- Yet, at least he has size and I can play him as a stretch five. Keegan, I can't.

We should just give that category a name. I think it's the Emmanuel quickly, the annual Emmanuel quickly. That's another one. That's the one. That's the contract.

Yeah, the Raptors have five of these contracts. They're tweener contracts.

Yes.

They're like a notch under an all-star spot, but you could probably get somebody to make $4 million a year who could put together 85% of the same stats. That's where the issue is.

That's where it comes in.

That's why I didn't even like that Jovich contract. But anyway. Other than as we head toward opening day, I think those are the biggest NBA stories that happen.

Fun.

Good stuff. Let's talk NFL. We did well last week. We were 4-0. I like the slate this week. You said you only like three games. We have this new pack where we don't talk at all about the games beforehand, so I have no idea what games you like. I was just going to go through the stay aways first and stop me if any of these were your games.

Okay, great.

I don't want any part of that Lyons five and a half over the Bucks.

Oh, interesting. Why not?

Because I don't know who's playing receiver for the Bucks. I don't know who's playing defense for the Lyons. I don't want to bet against Baker Mayfield ever the way the heater that he's on. But I also don't really want to bet on the Bucks when I don't know who's playing. The line is in the Vegas zone for a reason, and it just felt like a stay away to me.

So early in the week, I was plowing into the Lions. I have a ton of lions exposure. They have a tremendous record off of a loss, the combination of Dan Campbell and Jared Goff. I lost some of my enthusiasm. I'm saying it right now. I'm not going to buy out of the position, but the Brian Branch suspension is bad. That's bad for a team with all of the injuries in the secondary. That dude is heavy lumber. And for him to be out plus the secondary, no, I do I still think for the Bucaneers, this is the moment where it finally catches up with them. But it seems like Mike Evans is practicing.

I'm starting them in the fantasy league I care the most about. Also, there's two breakdown potential for them, too. Stop it. It's fine.

It's fine. It went from a love for me into a like. Again, the Brian Branch suspension was a... I'm not going to use the word I was going to use. A bummer.

Very fun game to watch. I look forward to belatedly doing a Bucks.

Giant overs.

Yeah, I feel like on Sunday, I'm going to do a Bucks tease with the over and probably just add a pure boredom. We'll see.

The thing that I love the best about when you are in Boston. It's really dangerous. The FanDuel, the flow. Oh my God.

Is it dangerous or is it glorious? Why did you use the wrong O-U-S word?

In the eye of the beholder. Because I the text that I'm getting from you. You just sitting there firing, firing, firing. How long are you in Boston for?

I'm only here for a couple of days. But the problem is I'm leaving Saturday, and there's going to be some runway bets as well. I'm getting to know it. You'll see a couple of those.

You'll see a couple firing them off.

The funny thing is we're taping this before Pittsburgh, Cincinnati today, which is just the definition of a just stay away. It's a Thursday night. It looks like a classic bad spot for the Steelers. I don't want to bet on the bangles, but I'm sure I'll talk myself into something just out of pure boredom. Plus there's baseball, a little interstricing. It's great. Washington and the Cowboys in Dallas, I think, is a stay away for us.

No, thank you. Please, let's stay away. I think Dallas is going to win.

Are you nervous about that game? Because that's one of those- Are you kidding me?

Yeah, you're in trouble if you lose. Have you seen Dak Prescott play quarterback?

You're in trouble if you lose that.

Incredible. The past defense for Washington is not setting the world fire. They let Caleb Williams go right down the goddamn field for the game-winning field goal. I did not enjoy it.

It's a must-win because your next three are at Chiefs, Seattle, and then Detroit.

I think we can get Seattle at home, but the other two, those are losses. Put them in the lost column now. I mean, Washington, they're going to have to battle hard to get to nine and eight and be in the playoff conversation.

How worried are you on a scale of one to 10 about my bet that I have against you and every other person who likes Washington?

I already took the 500 bucks and put it in a stock. Because I was supposed to say the amount out loud.

Well, we did. It was $500 a person. Yeah. I got an extra two wins because the pats were plus seven and a half or seven and a half over under. Washington was nine and a half.

Those were the totals. I mean, that was it. We played it that way.

Where it could get lucrative is it's win by win against Chang. The pats have the easiest schedule the rest of the way.

It's It's outrageous.

The Pats could just stumble into 11: 06 out of nowhere.

The funniest thing that could possibly happen is the Titans beating the Patriots this week, except for it's Vrabel's revenge game. So I think the right way to play it as Patriots by 55 points. I'm going to be in the alt-spread market looking at that.

Well, when you said the funniest thing that could happen, I thought you were going to tell the story of the dinner we had with Chang and Nathan.

I'm not telling that story.

At Capo on Saturday.

No, because you can't say the restaurant's name if we tell the story.

I'm not going back there. I'm happy to say it.

I love that restaurant. I want to go back there.

Well, they need to apologize to us.

They apologize to Nathan already.

Did they apologize?

It was an Alzheimer's. He said they apologized. It was an all-timer.

They brought bottles of wine and didn't tell us the price and tried to jack the price out of us. We were like, zonke out basketball players. The price was the price.

We just didn't do enough inquiry. They didn't tell us.

And then they brought a dessert wine that we didn't ask for, and then charges us for that. I've never had... I've been going to restaurants my entire life. I've never seen that happen.

Well, the dessert wine is just completely unnecessary. It is not for us.

We thought they were bringing us dessert wine because Chang was there. No, they decided to bring us a bottle and charge it to us.

The cherry on top.

If I said what the price of the bottle was, people wouldn't actually believe it. Don't say it. Yeah, I'm not going to. Don't say any prices. I'll never go back there, so I have no problem.

We'll see if it's- I love it. I'm going back. They have my business for life. I love that spot.

When I used to work as a waiter and bartender, we had this one waiter we worked with. And it's standard. If it's six people or more, it's a standard, you add the tip, right? I think it was 18% in the '90s. But you would tell the table. It's the right thing to do. It's the karma thing to do is to be like, Hey, just so you know, the tip has been included. And this one waiter we worked with would never tell the tables hoping he would get double-tipped.

Was it the Jay bug?

No, the Jay bug would never have done that, ever.

The Jay bug is a man of integrity.

I don't mean to- The Jay bug would never, in a million years, have done that.

He is to the contrary.

He was an all-time karma guy. He was this other dude we had, and he wouldn't tell the tables, and we would get so mad. It was like this fucking terrible that you did that. He was like, Well, I got 36% instead of 18. It's a congratulations, fuckface. I just think when you do stuff like that, the karma comes back. So we'll see. That's fine. We'll see with that place. Anyway, back to the football games. Broncos Giants. Broncos minus seven at home against the Giants. That is two crappy offenses. I don't want any part of this game in either way. I have no idea who's going to win. I don't ever want to bet on Bo Nicks again. And I'm not putting them in a tease, anything.

The problem is it's them at home. The funny thing is it's basically the same number as the beginning of the season. The Titans at the Broncos landed. It was over the summer, seven and a half. It moved up to eight and a half, and then the Titans covered. But it's another rookie quarterback on the road, and There's a lot of reason to be skeptical about the success of the Giants had.

Ricky Corkback against a great defense who takes unnecessary chances. I'm just scarred from last week.

It's fine. We're staying away. It's good. It's fine.

Last one that I looked at, and I was I was intrigued by the 49ers minus one and a half against the Falcons. Especially, Falcons coming off a Monday night game, great win. They're home, they're feeling great. Now they're on the road, Boes is out, Warner is out. Who knows who's actually playing for the Niners? It just felt like an awesome spot to be like, Oh, yeah, of course. And my shit detector is going off. It's a Sunday night game. I don't trust the Falcons. I can't get there.

We definitely Don't trust them on the road under any circumstances.

Don't trust them on the road. Just period. Their defense is first against the pass. It's fourth on third downs. It's seventh in sacks. All the stat signs are like, you should probably bet the Falcons here, but I'm not. It needs to stay away.

Yeah, I agree with staying away. I will end up playing this game as Sunday night rolls around, and I'm going to play the Niners just because we established the rule for ourselves. So we don't play the Falcons on the road.

I will probably do the Niners or Yeah, or some tease that takes the Niners to four and a half or something, something goofy. We'll see. By Sunday, Kittle might be playing. Right. They might have a couple of receivers that we don't... Right now, we don't know who's playing.

Is Purdy playing?

We expect Purdy. We don't know. That's why they can't be in there. But I think that's worth monitoring. If that's just mind stays under three and they get some guys back, Falcon's Outdoors, Night Game, California, that feels a little bit tasty. So one other I didn't know if it was a stay away or not. Well, there's two, actually. One is Texan Seahawks. Houston plus three and a half in Seattle. And initially, I was like, this looks like a smash spot for Houston because I really like their defense. I don't think the Seattle home field advantage has been there the last couple of years. I mean, the record backs it up. I don't know what happened to it. Houston's Defense, first in the league, scoring, fifth passing, seventh rush. Seattle's offense has looked good the last couple of weeks, but maybe Houston can disrupt them. Then you look at the Seattle defense, the stats, the stature, there. Some of the stuff they're doing against Houston's really shitty offensive line. As Lombardi always said, offensive lines don't travel. You're putting them in Seattle with a loud crowd. Seattle, second against the run, third QB hit, second hurry He's third sacks.

Just feels like, Oh, I have Houston. And then a quarter in, you're like, Oh, my God, they can't block Seattle. So I think it's a stay away unless you feel strongly.

No, I don't. I have a little on the Texans already because the three and a half is just too rich for me. And you mentioned how bad Seattle has been at home. The thing with Seattle that I can't forgive them is that loss against Baker Mayfield and the Bucks. That was a situation that Seattle, if you're a serious team, you need to take care of business. That's a seeding in the playoff game. The implications are there because Seattle already lost at home to the 49ers. So these are the teams that you have to beat if you're going to be in a serious place come playoff time. But you're right in terms of we can't bet on the Texans with that offensive line. We just can't do it.

If we were 20 and 10 in Ringer 107 right now, I might have talked myself into it, but we need wins. There is one parlay that I didn't stare at for a while. If you take Houston to plus seven and a half, and you take the under up to 47 and a half, I don't see 48 points in this game with the two defenses unless there were some weird turnover special team shit. I just don't think- Why don't you just play it all the way up.

Play it at full teaser. Texans up to nine and a half and whatever the total is for the full six.

Well, the 47 and a half, you're getting seven extra points for the over under. 47 and a half is a nice number because then- Yeah, key number is 47 in total.

That's a lot of points.

Yeah, that's a lot of points. Anyway. Then the other one that I think is a stay away, but I'm willing to be talked out of it just because I probably overrate this team. Saints plus five and a half in Chicago. Is this one of your three?

We're playing this one, buddy. Okay. Let there be no doubt.

Let me move that one up. Okay. The other one I was looking at from a tease standpoint, Jacksonville and the Rams. And sadly, this is London, which has become we're 0-3 in London games. Jags are plus three. Ostensibly, you're going to have a home crowd. Who knows? Yes. Rams flying there. Puca is questionable and probably not playing. And if he plays these on one leg. That makes me nervous. The Jags are just goof balls. But the spot I was thinking that made me feel better about this is a Parlay-Rerties taking the Jags up into the seven and a half, eight range and making the Rams have to beat them by two scores late. Because I'm not positive they can, but the London game scares me. So what do you think of that one?

We're not playing it. There's a reason that we have a rule against playing the London games. We're just not playing it.

We've broken the rule for three straight weeks.

Big dumbasses. So having said that, I do think the Jags are the correct side and directionally putting them in some... There's no No reason that you can't sit on the runway Saturday afternoon and fire off whatever you want on that. We just can't put it into this contest under any circumstances.

You wouldn't even put that Jags plus eight and a half.

Fuck, no. They're playing in London on Sunday morning. There's a reason that we have a rule.

So the Chiefs minus eleven and a half at the Raiders, they're minus 700. And I think for any parlay, they have to be in. Rice is back. Bowers, I think the Raiders without Bowers is just... I'm just not afraid of them. I know there's some history with these two teams. The Raiders have beaten them weirdly, maybe two times over the last four years. But this to me feels like they break where she riced out of the garage. They drive them around. They do little wheelies outside in the street. They zoom it down. They rev the engine a little, and they probably take their foot off the gas in the second half. But I feel very comfortable throwing them in some parlay.

Okay.

On the money line? As a minus 700. Yeah, it's like we do a three-teamer. Great. Sure. I feel great about putting them in it.

Great. No problem.

No chance, the Gino and the Raiders, nothing. Anything scare you?

No. No.

No. No. Chips quietly up to the number three offense in the league by EPA now.

Catastrophe is the only thing that scares me with that.

Pretty bad. They barely beat Tennessee last week. Who then immediately fired their coach and the coach's dad. Callahan tires.

The Raiders beat Tennessee's ass. Tennessee tried to show some life in the fourth quarter.

It's got 20 points.

Tennessee is so good.

Callahan tires is no longer. Our guy Callahan finished 4-19 against the spread for his career. He's the number one worst against the spread in the history of football since they've been tracking spreads.

It's amazing that. I think I only bet against him half the time.

At what point in your life do you brag about that? When you're 65 years old and somebody's like, I heard you were a coach. Yeah, coached an NFL team. Really? What team? Tennessee. Coached there for a year and a half. Pause. You know I have the worst record ever against the spread. Nobody's ever done worse. There were 23 opportunities to bet for or against me. And if you bet against me, you won 19 of the 23. It's a record. It's 80% of the time you bet against me, you won. It's never happened He's a record holder.

That's it. He is. You know, I'm a record holder as an NFL head coach.

Yeah, I hold a record. Really? What record? Well, it's a weird one. Also, how did Hugh Jackson not have the record?

You put that question into one of the threads. Did anybody answer it? There's no way that Hugh Jackson did very much better. A little bit better, maybe, but not very much better.

Four and 19 is just incredible. I'm in awe of it. Yeah, in awe. It's like when we were growing up and they would show Bob Beeman's Mexico City jump. And you'd be like, oh, my God, he jumped four feet further than everyone else. How did he do that? Four and 19, really amazing. Great stuff.

The Outer Limits of Human Achievement.

That dumb ass Tennessee owner group, they fired the GM, they fired Vrabel, they hired this guy, and ran Carthon, they fired him. They've had four firings in two years.

What an amazing We need to look up.

They should have Vivek Ronadabe as their minority owner. Get him in there.

Shots. Shots there.

He could own a piece of the Titans.

That's disrespectful because Sacramento, at least, they were lighting the beam just a couple of years ago. It wasn't that long ago.

They were lighting the beam. They did the beam for six months.

Yeah, but that was a good team. They took the Warriors to seven games. When's the last... Tennessee was the last good when Mike fucking Vrabel was the head coach.

They went 12 and 5 with Mike Vrabel. Yeah, good head coach. In this decade.

Yeah, this decade.

Speaking of the Titans, Pat's Titans, it's in Tennessee. It's the first game after a fired coach. It's been Drake May National Appreciation Week.

On the Ringer, for sure.

What do you mean on the Ringer? On everywhere. Watch ESPN. Jesus Christ. I flew to Boston on Wednesday, and I had ESPN without the sound just on the TV, and it was 17 Drake May segments. I mean, these advanced stats for him are unbelievable. Why are you so... That's fine. Hey, listen, I'm sorry you got the wrong quarterback from the draft, and then he's two years older, and then he's not as good as Drake May. I'm sorry.

Let's see the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, then we can have that conversation.

Fair enough. Thunderstorms and wins for this game, and yet I am not deterred. I think the pats have to be in a parlay with us.

I don't want to do it. I don't want to do it. I don't want nothing to do with it. I'm literally in the alt spread market right now for that game on the idea that Vrabel would like to win by 20 or more points. And if you want to let him- You mean like a pour it on game? Yeah, pour it on game. Why wouldn't he pour it on? But here's the problem. It is the new coach situation, which is not favorable for me. That didn't work.

It didn't work last year.

I'm just saying in general, I think they've been 0-2 with the new coaches last year. It's not a favorable situation. But the thing that- They're terrible.

Tennessee's terrible. They're terrible.

The New England Patriots put the fucking ball on the ground five times against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The New England Patriots beat the crap out of the Steelers up and down the field, but put the goddamn ball on the ground. I just am not there yet altogether. I can't trust the team. I will put a small bet on them.

Unfortunately for me, I have two picks that I get to make myself. I get two. This is true. We split two and you get one.

You're right. You're right. You are the boss.

You didn't even make a case against that. You were just like, I don't know. They put the ball on the ground, fired Five times a month ago. They did do that.

Congrats. They did that.

Did you feel like Packers Cardinal should be in any parlay or tease? No. Packers minus six and a half in Arizona? No. No Marvin Harrison, I'm assuming, because he had a concussion. Third string runningbacks for Arizona. Maybe Jacobi Riber said again?

They showed some life against the Colts. Now, what that tells you is some more about the Colts, which we'll get to soon enough than about the Cardinals. But the Cardinals are playing. You know what I mean? The Green Bay team is too schizophrenic for me. They left the back door open. We were almost in a situation where Joe Flacko was going to have the ball in the fourth quarter with a chance to either tie or take the lead. Come on, Green. Why did they do that? That's at home. That's at Lambo. I don't trust Green Bay yet. I'm telling you right now, just for you, I am going to play the New England Patriots minus 19 and a half, available on the FanDuel Sportsbook. This is why I'm playing it at plus 420. The kids know what that means. Plus 420.

Can we start a new segment with Fandil called Runway Bets? Airplane Runway Bets? That's one of those that I wouldn't do until the guy's like, Please shut down your phones. We're about to take off. Please make sure your belts are fast. I'm like, Oh, my God, I got to get the pats plus 420. Let me get this off. Hold on, pilot. Let's take a break, and then we'll talk about the games that we love. All right, this is interesting. We didn't talk about beforehand which ones we liked. You said you liked three games. Have any of them come up with? Was Saints one of the games?

Saints was one of them, yes.

Okay, let's talk Saints then. Saints plus five and a half at Chicago. Saints Outdoors, bears overvalued, so those things cancel each other out. Bears Defense, 36 Second yards per play, 31st against the run. They have no pass rush whatsoever, and a pretty lucky win against your dumb team last week with your stupid turnover. We watched it together. More than pretty lucky.

The effing Washingtons fumbled the ball at midfield with three minutes left in the game on a third and short with a chance to just win the effing football game. The goddamn bears have won two straight games by the score of 25 to 24, one point. And both of them have been these preposterous outcomes where the other team is like, Would you like to win a game this season? So dumb. I'm so upset with it, but five and a half.

You know it's funny? They always talk about turnover regression and regression on fourth down, all this stuff. And you had all these amazing stats last year. And When we're watching in real time this season, the regression just flipped. Last year, third and three from midfield with a chance to put the game away, you would have taken two chances.

Jaden would have just run it.

Put it away. Yeah, that's right. I don't know what the difference is this year.

The offensive line isn't as good. There's no receivers.

No McLaren.

Right. So that's the difference. And Jaden had a bad game.

All right. So what's your case for this, Saints plus five and a half?

It's a ridiculous number. It's The bears. The bears is the case. Five and a half, what are we talking about? If you wanted to say the bears at home by two and a half or something, some reasonable number, less than a field goal. But this is based on priors that don't exist this season. The Saints are averaging nearly five yards per play on the road against good teams, against Seattle and Buffalo. They did it against New England. This is the easiest defense that the Saints will have confronted by far, by a long shot. And the Saints have better net yards per play. There's a whole bunch of stats that just support the idea. We're not saying that the Saints are good. They're competent, though. They're playing hard. And we're seeing in front of us Rattler growing more and more comfortable, even if they end up in a game script where the weather is going to really mess with this. I'd much rather have the Saints offense in bad weather than the Bear's offense in bad weather. The bears can't run the football. The bears got lucky with a real route swing pass to goddamn DeAndre Swift against my Washington team, where Kwan Martin thought he was playing two-hand touch.

He two-hand touched him on the sideline and then run 55 yards for a countdown. That was the game deciding goddamn countdown. I am not a believer in this bears team. Give me all the five and a half points, and I'll probably play New Orleans on the money line as well.

It's a great case. I'll add this. New Orleans, they lose 20 to 13 in week one to Arizona. First week, they actually were a little more competitive than I think people realized. And Cardinals went up early, and the Saints were coming back, trying to win.

There was like, ride receiver with the ball in his hands in the end zone with 13 seconds left for the Saints. It just didn't stay in his hands. The ball fell out of his hands. But we're about to tie that game up.

49ers week two, lose by five. Another respectable effort. They get killed by the Seahawks in Seattle in week three. That's a good defense game. Turnovers.

That game was all turnovers. Their net yards were fine.

At Buffalo, hung around the entire game.

Whole game.

And I watched that game and had that game on and was shocked how they were able to get first downs and just hang around, stay in. They beat the Giants 26, 14. Last week against my team, 25, 19, we watched together some awful calls, some of the worst calls ever. And multiple times Pat's guys were wide open down the field, but they pressured May. They were around him the whole game. They moved the ball. Rattler was okay. They had a chance to win that game. So their schedule has been pretty good. They haven't played I don't think they're a shit team yet unless you count the Giants. I don't think the Giants are a shit team. They're not one of the five worst teams.

No, they're not.

I agree with you. I think this line is too high. That's why I had it marked down.

The other thing that I like, and I'm tracking now that we're enough weeks in, I'm looking at the allocation of tickets because the public is getting violated. So I just want directionally to have some validation, some confirmation. Right now, 60 % is on Chicago. That's on the FanDuel Sportsbook. If you go under their stats thing, 60 % of tickets on Chicago. So directionally, that makes me feel good.

One of the most fun is taking a team right after they looked awesome on a Monday night game. Right. And also, Akemen was really hard on Caleb Williams in that game, and it turned into a story. But I don't know. I stayed with Trey Akemen.

The Saints are going to play his own coverage, and the weather's going to be bad. Let's see it, Caleb. I'm rooting for Caleb. Went to my high school.

Can we talk Panthers Jets? Was that one of your three?

It was not.

Panthers minus one and a half at the Jets. Tictac game. I'll admit, Bryce Young on the road has been admittedly rough. It hasn't been great. It's been a home away situation with them. At home, they've been Panthers, finally with some scope position, guys. Defense, not terrible. Fourth against the run. Sixth, first down is allowed. Jets defense, 32nd, forced turnover. Something's got to give with them and Bryce Young on the road. Panthers defense, ninth against the run, and their issue is past defense. The Jets don't have Garrett Wilson, and we're already 32nd out of all the teams in passing success every metric ever. Yes. So there's two things. One would be you could say, well, if the Jets don't win this one, they might not win this year. This is a nice spot for them. The other one is maybe there's something here with Carolina. To get over the pump, it'd be four and three after this game. We could do the, whoa, oh, my God, the Panthers are four and three. I think this is going to be Justin Field's last start ever.

Well, do we know for sure that he's starting? Have they announced?

He might have already had his last start ever last week.

It was up in the air. I thought the news reports were suggesting that Tyrod might be the starter. Great. There's some news out there that suggests that.

The Jets are terrible. And I thought Denver, we watched that game together, too. If Boehnick slides in the first half over the marker, I just think Denver wins by 30. This feels like it just booze the whole thing. Anyway, I like the Panthers, so you're not as enthusiastic.

Just because, I mean, Let him show us. Let him go win a game on the road. Just show us that you can do it. I don't care. I don't care who... I don't like going up against a team that hasn't won yet. Even in the completely depleted state that the Jets are in and that the coach, that head coach, he will soon enough, again, be a defensive coordinator.

Aaron Glenn? I like when he's... Aaron Glenn is already doing the... I watched this with Dan It takes a while to build a house and doing that whole thing. It's like, you know what else would help build the house? Calling timeouts for the end of the first half.

A little foundation. Using the right materials.

Some game management maybe helps the house.

Construction manager. Yeah, some of those things could help.

Was Vikings, Eagles, one of your games?

I gave it a good long, hard look.

Let's give it a hard look now. Vikings plus two and a half at home against the Eagles who don't have Mitchell, a cornerback, probably don't have Dickerson. There's like a million pieces you can find online about how different their offensive line is this year than last year. Carter, playing hurt or not playing. Their best guy, their night and day when he's not out there. Is it Darius Smith just retired? Yeah. They have no pass rush anymore. Their top three pass rushers are now out. And hurting a cornerback against Jefferson and Addison, I love that. I assume it's Wenz. I don't mind Wence against a really bad defense. But the real thing for me, I think that you could say the Eagles have a below average defense so far this year. I think that's fair. They're somewhere in the If you have four tiers of defense, they're in the third tier. They're not bottom tier, but third tier. Their offensive stats are unbelievably bad. And they back up what we've been watching, which has been a big shit sandwich. 29th against the pass, 25th against the rush, 28th yards per play, 31st tackles for loss. And there are against this Minnesota defense, second versus pass, second on third down, third Keebie Harries.

They have Cashman and Van Ginkle coming back this week. They're home, they're underdogs, And I don't understand the line.

What is the line now?

The line is Vikings plus two and a half.

Yeah, we would be playing at a Vikings plus two and a half. So here's the problem for me. This is why I was stuck on it. The Vikings haven't really done much in terms of inside the numbers. They're 0. 4 net yards per play better against Chicago, who they came back late to win against Atlanta with Pennex.

Are you a full nerd on me right now?

Well, I'm just looking at this. They have Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh on a neutral field, and Cleveland. This This is like these games, these teams that they played under these circumstances, not really blowing me away with this Minnesota team. Now, you would say, well, Cashman and Van Kinckel missed a chunk of a significant chunk of those games.

Yes, they did. They were missing the two linebackers who were the fuel to their team.

And the reason to be bullish on the Vikings is Jalen Hertz has been horrific, horrific against two-man and against zone defense. Absolutely terrible. And the Minnesota Vikings will blitz the hell out of him. But the only thing you have to say to yourself is we're betting on Carson Wents, or had they said for sure that it's Wents?

Can I offer you this? I just looked this up on FanDuel. Vikings up to plus three and a half. Sheeps Money Line minus 120 right at the cutoff of what we can do for a parley. And now we're over the field goal hump with that.

Yeah, I don't hate that. I don't hate that because it still permits the idea that the Eagles win a close one. I don't like the defense, the matchup for the Eagles in any way, shape, or form.

Chiefs money with Vikes plus three and a half. Okay. Okay.

We have two comebacks by Minnesota that have saved their season. They came back against Chicago in that fourth quarter, and they came back in the final minute against Cleveland.

But we They didn't have Addison in the first three games. Now they have the two receivers with Hawkinson.

Okay.

I think they can run on them. I actually like Jordan Mason. I think he's been good. I have one of my fantasy teams.

We also like O'Neill off the buy, right? Yeah. With a chance who's got a long look at this Philadelphia eagles.

The eagles have been telling us who they are for six weeks, and they really could be two and four. Okay.

I like it.

Bikes plus three and a half, chief's money minus 120.

That's one of our bets.

Put that in the book. I marked it down.

Okay.

Two more games. Chargers, Colts. Did that one intrigue you?

Oh, it sure did.

Chargers minus one and a half favorites at home against the Colts. The Colts have major, major cornerback injury stuff. They've been ravaged, so there's that. We watched them last week play Arizona. And Jacobi Brisset, who was not a playable quarterback last year for New England, I think he went 27 for 44. He threw for over 300 yards. There was a quarterback controversy in Arizona after the game. And the reason he did so well was the Colts defense was awful. And if you look at it, they beat Brisset by four. They beat Gino, they beat Kam Ward, they beat Bo Nicks in a game that they should have lost, that stupid leverage play, and they beat two in week one. The chargers have... It seems like Joe Walsh coming back for a left tackle. It seems like he did the limited practice, might be back, and then Cleo Mac might be back as well. It's funny. I started the week really liking the Colts and thinking they were underrated, but these defensive injuries... It comes down to this for me, Joe House. This just to me feels a Justin Herbert is awesome game. We're going to find out if Johnston is playing, but I think he is.

He's been limited practice. But if Bricek can do that against the Colts defense, this just feels like a Justin Herbert. Just take us home. All we need to do is win by three Justin Herbert. Just take us home. Add this to your MVP candidacy. I'll ride you. And also, should the Colts really be six and one? That seems crazy.

Yeah, good. We're on the same page here. All the reasons you just listed, that cult secondary without Chivarius Ward, who has been incredible.

He got concussed before the game yesterday. It's a week long injury anyway. But I think that... I mean, he's had multiple, multiple concussions.

Yeah.

So I don't think we'll be seeing him. Yeah, they have no D-backs.

They have no D-backs. The other thing I love is that the public is on the cults. Right now, 59 % on the Colts. We wanted to get to 60 %. So go ahead, public, please. Hey, the Colts. The Chargers barely beat the Dolphins last week. So let me have the Colts on the road. Okay, please. Please do that. Let's get this nice 60 % for the public.

Chargers, the top six against the pass. So the thing that would worry me in this game is they run all over the Chargers. Taylor just goes nuts.

Sure.

By the way, they've played in LA already, weirdly. They played the Rams in LA. So they did the Sofi double. I don't know if that's good or bad for him.

He had lost close.

Yeah.

But do we really believe that Indiana Jones is going to be- Six and one? Yeah, and as triumphant as he's been thus far? One mistake?

Let me ask you this. How many games in a row can Daniel Jones play before just having an awful game, before just submitting a shit sandwich? What's a realistic number? Even if we were the best case version of a Daniel Jones season, I mean, I have my right-hand up.

I'm ready to see it. This is the game.

We've gone through six games where he hasn't been terrible in any of the games.

He has not been. He's been very good.

Where we haven't said, Oh, man, he's just walking off the sidelines with that weird look on his face.

Chargers minus one and a half.

Chargers will be five and two if they win this.

They will have earned it, too.

I think if they win this, first of all, it completely changes the complexion of Texan Seahaw on Monday night because the Texans can steal that one all of a sudden. They're back. But I feel like we're going to be flipping our opinion on the AFC South all season.

Probably.

All right. I saved the best for last. I knew this would be one of your games. There's just no doubt. We have the Cleveland Browns favored by two and a half against the Miami Dolphins. The weather report, I don't think ominous is a strong enough word. Here's what we know we have. Definite, definite rainstorm. The mile and hours for the winds, they said, conservative, 15 to 20. Possibility of 50 to 60. The temperature is not going to be that low. So with the two a thing, it's like when two and the dolphins under 40 degrees, dolphins in any scenario, under 40 degrees, just an automatic smash. But two in bad weather. And then on top of it, their defense is 30 second against the rush. So if this is just bad weather, let's see who could run the ball. You have on the one hand a defense against up the rush. On the other hand, you have a Cleveland defense that's third against a run and is good, even though they didn't look great last week against Pittsburgh.

The most important thing by a long shot is that It's the Cleveland defense at home. The Cleveland defense at home is magnificent. They took a season off last season, but the season before that, when they went into the playoffs with Joe Flacko as their quarterback, a dominant defense at home. We are right back in that saddle. Again, a dominant defense against the run in particular. And Tua not being able to throw the football in these weather conditions.

The fact that this stayed- Only their third Brown's home game this year, too. And you're right, they're a completely different team when they're home with the defense. Go ahead.

Well, all I was going to say is... I forgot what I was going to say. The Gabriel part, too. Like, remember the situations that he was put into as a starting quarterback. He went up against Minnesota with the Blitz defense in Floris. Welcome to the NFL. And then they lost a day. They traveled from Europe back to the United States to play Mike Tomlin at Pittsburgh. So I think this is his first real week to be with this. Real normal game.

Yeah, right. I don't think he's very good.

I don't think so either. I'm not making a case for him.

You know who I know is very good? The Miami Dolphins. So how about this house? They have the 32nd rush defense, right? Last in the week, and we have some bad rush defenses. They played Kamani Vidal last week in the chargers. They played Rico Daudo. They basically turned Rico Daudo's career around. They played the fucking Jets. They played my team. That rushed for 22 for 45 with their two starting runningbacks last week. We can't run the ball at all. I'm making up Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara trades with my friends. And then they played James Cook and Taylor, who are two of the best. But if four of your six games against those four teams and your 30-second against the rush, you can't stop the rush. So this could be the Judkins game of all time would be my guess.

Let's go. This is it.

This is the... Browns minus two and a half feels like a miracle.

I just don't understand why it stayed a two and a half.

This is my favorite game of the year.

I feel the same way. And you know what?

I love this I can't wait to watch Miami shivering cold with the wind. Miles Garrett coming after two in horrible weather. This just feels like a fucking godsend.

Yeah, all over it. I wish we could bet this five times. Let's enter this into the contest. It says, Browns, Browns, Browns, Browns, Browns. I wish we could do that.

Today's Rigger 107 brought to you by FanDuel. We are 14 and 16 for this season, but we had a lot of momentum from last week, and we've had a lot of bad luck this year. I feel like our luck is starting to shift. We have five picks. House has the first one, Saints plus five and a half in Chicago. You thought this line was three points too high. You don't like the bears. I do not. You think the Saints are maybe a five and a half on the frisky scale? What else am I missing?

It's time to pour some settle down juice on the bears.

Well, is there any bitterness that they beat your team last week after you just kept turning the ball over and letting them hang around?

Yes, there was a lot of bitterness.

The bears have won a couple of dumb games. Anyway, I think This is a three-point game, and maybe the Saints can win. I'm with you on that one. Next one, we both like chargers, colts, chargers minus one and a half.

Fine.

The Justin Herbert MVP game. Let's see it. Colts defense ravaged with secondary injuries. Let's go, Justin Herbert. Show us why you should be in this conversation with Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes and my guy, Drake May. Outrageous. Maybe Josh Allen. I forgot about him. I don't want to forget about Josh Allen. But yeah, the Colts, this feels like a bad spot for them. Second LA trip for them already. We're waiting for the Daniel Jones. Don't forget that he's not a mortal lock to be good all the time guy. We are. Next one. Panthers minus one and a half against the Jets. This is my pick. Panthers minus one and a half. We're breaking the seal off of Bryce Young and the Panthers skill guys. Rico Doudal, Ted McMillan, Jalen Coker from Holy Cross coming back. I think they can move the ball. Listen, we've said the Panthers only bet on them at home. I think this is when We finally get some growth. We get some stories on Sunday night. Panthers finally one-one on the road where they look like maybe... By the way, they could be four and three after this. And I think the Jets are just apprehensively bad.

They might be.

No, Garrett Wilson. The way to beat the Panthers, throw the ball on them. Jets, 30-second pass. Offense, no, Garrett Wilson. Sounds awesome. Next one is our parlay. Chief's money line against the Raiders. Free to throw that one, and it's minus 700. Pat's money line against the Titans. Calhand Tire fires no more. Pat's on the road. Rayball all-time revenge game. House loves this for Pat's minus 19. 5 as an airplane runway bet. Plus 420. Minus 19. 5 plus 420. Anyway, Chiefs Money Line, Pats Money Line. We're going to bring the Vikings against the Smoking Marys' Eagles up to plus seven and a half at home. We think that can actually win the game. We sure do. But Chiefs Money Line, Pats Money Line, Vikings plus seven and a half against an Eagles team that has not looked awesome. Then last but not least, our favorite pick in seven weeks.

Literally.

Cleveland Browns minus two and a half at home against the Dolphins. Thunder Worms. Wind estimated between, worst case scenario, 50 miles an hour. Scariest scenario, 60 miles an hour. And Tua and the Dolphins and DJ Mikey Mac. Yeah, mixate Mike. She's trying to dial it up with their 30-second run defense as the Browns run all over them, their defense goes nuts. And we like the Browns at home.

We sure do. Quinchawn Judkins' breakout game, more breakout game in that defense against us. That's great. Let's go, man.

That's Today's Ringer 107. It's brought to you by FanDuel. Odds subject to change. House, you did so well. I want to pour you a glass of dessert wine and then charge you $500 for it.

Don't say, oh, well, believe me, that feels like a bargain. You're only charging me five hundred? That's a bargain.

Maybe I went low. House.

Hey. Hey.

I'll see you next week. Good luck in the Rigger 107.

Good luck to both of us.

All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Kyle Mann and House and Eduardo and Gehow. Enjoy the weekend. I'm going to be back on Sunday night with The Cus talking NFL. See you then. Must be 21 plus in President Select States for a Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus on President DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800 Gamble or visit rg-help. Com. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat-in-connectget or mdgamblinghelp. Org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelp-line-ma. Org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts, or call 877-8 Hope, N-Y, or text Hope, N-Y, in New York.