Transcript of NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The East With Zach Lowe and Joe House

The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by the Ringer podcast Network, where you can find Fairway rolling with Joe House. You can find the Zack Lo podcast. Whoa. Yeah, that's on the Ringer, too. It is. He's here right now. We did part one, NBA Over Under. We did the West, which was a more traditional old-school, a lot of good arguments. Now we're about 10 to the East, which is just a freaking abyss. And I can't wait, but we're going to take a break. We're bringing our friends from Pearl Jam and then The East. This is the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on. Fanduel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live. Your way, so you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast, it's easy to use, best of all. When you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts, recently. Guess what I did? Use FanDuel. Super fun. Download Download the Fandil app or go to fandle.

Com/bs to get started. Must be 21 plus President select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Get in a promo call, win a 100, gambler. Or visit rg-help. Com. Call 888-789-777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut. Well, we have many traditions here with the Over Under's pod, one of which is we usually do the East second because House's division with the Washington Wizards is usually the last division. They're usually the last pick. It's like a little cherry in the Sunday house.

It's very nice.

We do your team last.

We get to end with Washington. I always leave feeling good. No matter what the pick is, I leave feeling good about it.

We're going to start with the Central, where the Cleveland Cavaliers are at an over and under of 56 and a half. They won 64 games last year. They lost high Jerome. They lost Isaac O'Coro. They gained Lanzo Ball and Larry Nance and Thomas Bryant. They are our first title-related second-apron test case, Zack Lo. It's a true contender with zero outs. This is their roster. They can't really trades. They can't improve it. They can't even get buy-out guys. This is who they are. Even if Charlotte's like, Hey, we'd love to give you LaMelo ball in three first-round pics for Darius Garland, the Cavs would have to say, We can't. We are trapped under a giant second apron. Is this a good thing or a bad thing when a contender has a disappointing playoff loss and then can't make any moves and actually has to run it back?

I don't think it's either good or bad. For this team, I think it's fine. They're all young. They all fit well together. There's a proof of concept that everyone got hurt or Darius Garland and other people got hurt in the playoffs. Last year, Mowbley was a little banged up when they lost Cindy. I think it's good. I think it's fine for this team. Of course, sticking together is good. I'm okay with it.

Okay. How about you, house?

Yeah, I totally agree. This is a team that showed us it still has room to grow. The big what if is what if Garland was healthy.

Right. What if Moby plays game one? What if Garland was healthy?

Hunter was banged up.

Yeah. Because I was thinking we did Phoenix for the West in part one, and we were talking about how badly that went to shit over the span of three years. It all starts because Luka beats him in that playoff series. It just just sends them on tilt. Then Ishmael comes in, and all of a sudden, the KD trade happens and they just start blowing things up. I think in the old NBA, I think I wonder if Cleveland would have done a let's blow it up something. You know what I mean? Would Garland have been dangled? Would they have said, Maybe we can get away with Evan Mobley and maybe shop Jared Allen for two guys. But in this new NBA, this is where they're going to be. What would an Evan Mobley MVP season look like for you, Zack?

How many points did he average last year? Let me look at it. He was 21, something like that.

He was 19 and 9, something like that.

So 24. It has to be a big jump in scoring. Three-point shooting has to get better. Although he was 37% last year, low volume. And just a little bit more, oh, he really feels more like a 1A than a third option behind Garland and Mitchell in terms of creating, initiating possessions.

I had the minutes per game has to go up because they had low minutes for everybody last year, so maybe 34, 35 minutes a game. 24 and 12, realistic?

12 is tough. 12 is tough from nine and a half to 12 with a center that eats a lot of rebounds. That's tough.

Top three defensive player of the year. Rankings somewhere in there. He's there.

He's number one. Check it.

50, 40, 80 percentages. It's 24. I think that Cavs would have to have 65 wins. I don't think it's going to happen. How's what do you got?

In terms of what I think about this team? Yeah. I think they're capable of running it back. They just set such a high bar last year, and it really was... I wonder how much of it was to just that arrival of Kenny Atkinson and everything to the guys on the floor starting to make sense. You could see how the combination of Atkinson plus those guys are like, yes, okay, this is... And this is in shade of J. B. B. B. Kerstaffe. He got the most out of the crew with what he brought to the table. Atkinson, different guy, different approach. And I think he elevated Mowbley. The guy who gets credit for elevating Mowbley is Atkinson, in my humble opinion. And there There is still that room to grow. This is a huge drop off in win total that I don't really grasp, especially in view of what we've all observed in the east.

Right. The attrition. No Tatum, no Halliburton.

I'm skeptical about some of the teams that we say, Oh, there's big leaps coming and wins for a couple of teams that we'll get to. I don't think I'm going to Am I supposed to say my pick? Yeah, go. Yeah, it's an over for me because 57 wins is perfectly reasonable for this team.

I am a little surprised to be going under. It's a high number, 56 and a half. I realized they won 64 last year. They were 20 and 9 in close games in the last three minutes. Score within three points. I don't know if they could duplicate that. I'm just a little nervous that Garland's already hurt to start the season. Struis has already hurt to start the season. That Not combined with maybe someone else gets hurt along the way, we're not going to go pedal to the metal all the way like we did last year when we're good vibes with the first team together. Let's see what we can do. I could just see a little ease off the gas and just have a nice normal 55 54 win season. So again, I got to go under on some people on the high and I'm going to go a little under on the Cads. It's fine. It's weird to go under 56 and a half on a 64 win team. I don't know. The injuries to start the season make me a little nervous.

Well, and then you also have the Alonso piece, too. Last year, the Ty Jerome, certainly, this year of Alonso, who if he's playing, it's great. I thought about the injuries stuff, too, and I think that's why the number is priced where it is because I'm with house. It's a good number. The first time I looked at it, I'm like, whoa, that's low. They won 64 last year.

There's a very good chance this is a very stupid under by me, especially with the Mowbley leap potential as the best possible reason to go over, even if you're concerned about the injuries.

I'm going over for two reasons. One is the Mowbley leap possibility, which I think at age 24, it's right around now. I think they treated the regular... I know they won a bunch of games in the regular season last year, but the minutes number was low. I remember some of the dialog when they got to the playoffs was like, these guys weren't ready for the ramp up because they had been babyed throughout the regular season. And did we do something wrong? Should we have handled the regular season a little more aggressively than we did versus trying to get these guys pacing them, getting ready, and then all of a sudden they're taking haymakers in the play-off. It's like, What's this? So I wonder if they're going to be more aggressive in the regular season. So that swung it for me. Maybe that's two, three extra wins where they're just taking it a little more seriously that they have to keep laying the smack down. Also, the East is just worse. There's just multiple games now, especially in the first half of the season where you're playing the Celtics without Tatum. There's two games that they should probably be favorite.

I think they're going to be favorite in a lot of games.

You know what? I'm changing my pick. I'm going I'm changing it. I'm doing my first midstream. He did it already.

I did. I'm doing my first- No, I left mine was open for a conversation.

I'm doing my first midstream change. I'm going over 56 and a half. It's just too many. There's too many wins to grab against 34 win mediocrities across the conference. I'm going over on Cleveland. Sorry, Kav's fan.

You're a coward.

I don't think it makes him a coward. I don't feel great about it from the beginning. I'm going over.

The East is lousy. Over is the right move. Detroit is over 46 and a half. They were 44 and 38 last year. They added Karras Levert, Duncan Robinson, Jeff Green. Still in the lead. Givante Green?

Yeah, definitely not Jeff Green.

I wrote down Green. They had a green. You said Jeff Green. Givante Green? Javante Green.

Aj. They had a green.

Jero Green?

No, AJ Green.

Not Draymond Green.

Milwaukee. Ac Green?

They lost Tim Hardaway. They lost Schroeder. They lost Fantechio, and almost definitely lost Malik Beazley. There's still a chance maybe he comes back on a short contract because they have some rights with that. This is a team that's being thrown into a lot of taking a leap conversations. I'll just start. I'll start us off. Normally, I like to throw it, but I don't really see it with Detroit. I thought the 44 and 38 last year was a little deceiving because they played hard every game and there are some schedule stuff with it. And Cade was really good and it was exciting to watch. But I think they're worse than they were last year. I'm not a huge Levert guy. Robinson, Miami, quit on 14 times over the last five years. And I thought their vets really mattered to them with some of those games. They look good in that next series. I like Cade, like Dern, obviously. Ivy's coming back, which would be the other factor, you would say. The only way I see it is if there's some giant Saw a Sarah Thompson leap that I think people really seem to want to happen.

But 47 felt rich to me, and I'm leaning toward under. Where'd you stand, Zack?

First of all, Sarah Thompson is my pick for most improved player. So I'm excited about him. That would help. This is fun. And he missed... He actually played more than I thought last year. He only missed 23 games, I think, but he didn't play a ton of minutes. Other than Ivy and him, they were very, very healthy last year. Other than Ivy, they had Schroeder for a lot of the year to make up for that.

Who was pretty important for them in those last two months. Yeah, he was. Yeah.

And the playoffs.

I'm bullish on Detroit's medium term future. I think last year was pretty real. I think the payoff toughness was pretty real. I ended up going under just because I can see this being one of those, well, development is not always linear in terms of win total. Sometimes you have a little step back or a little plateau along the way on your rise up to something. I think we're a year away from the rise. And ironing out the offensive kinks, I think, is going to be the story of the season. Duren, Asar, they don't have a lot of three-point shooting. They were a very high turnover team. I don't know how much of that they can really fix. So I can see a Another year just like last year. So I'm going on during the trip.

Yeah, somewhere in the mid '40s. Then bringing back Ivy, who I think is going to be extension eligible in a year. But it's now.

Now. He and Duren are extension eligible It's Cade's team.

You got to slide him in. What do you see, house?

The single biggest factor for me is the Beazley thing. He was unbelievable from three last year, and that was really important to them. He was one of the three best three-point shooters in the entire NBA, Malik Beazley. It was very quiet over the course.

And one of the worst gamblers.

We don't know anything about that.

We don't know anything about that. Nothing proven.

There's just allegations out there.

Nothing proven, just allegations.

I think that that's not like, Oh, we just acquired Duncan and we fixed it. Some of that offensive stuff, Karras Levert will fill in some of those blanks. I like this team to win 46 games. I like this team to win more than they won last year. So you're going half under. And it's an under, right. Because 46 is not a bad record in the East, and it's still an under, so it's an under. You guys already said, Tell me how Jaden Ivey is going to play. Tell me what his impact will be.

I think he'll be fine. Where are we staying on Levert?

I think Jaden Ivey will be fine. Catching shoot through is really Well, I like Levert and Robinson better than you guys. I don't think they've lost as much from the Beazley volume. Duncan Robinson won't be able to duplicate, but he's a little bit of a better passer, like two-man game with Duren, I could see. Okay.

Because Levert had Cleveland winning with him being like, I think we can do better. That makes me nervous. I thought he was very ball stoppy.

Wild card here, as you have mentioned in the West part, is do they make some massive move in the middle of the season to win now? And that could vault them over to the over. I think actually, we'll see what they do. I don't feel great, but I'm going a little under.

Just a tiny bit. Sight under is for all of us, and the marketing trade could really fuck it up. Yeah, sure. If they just come in in February, come in hot.

This is the sequel to all of us being over on the Clippers. I'm surprised all of us are under on the Clippers.

They feel like every year there's a team, and where they was, Orlando last who had the year from hell. But there's always a team that people just vault to the next level, even though we haven't really seen it. And a lot of it is you have to look at the circumstance from the previous season. I thought 44 and 38. To me, they were a 500 team that played harder and weren't fun to watch. We'll see. I also like this next team a lot more. Just spoiler alert, the Milwaukee Bucks. Over under 42 and a half. They are 20 to 1 to win the conference. Which is the eighth best odds in the East, even though they have the best player in the conference in Giannis. Minus 2: 15 for the playoffs. They were 48 and 34 last year. They turned Lopez into Miles Turner. They turned Dame Lowe into Cole Anthony, and they turned Connaughton into coffee and Harris. They're deep. They're a sneaky great shooting team, Zack.

Great. It didn't take a lot, but they were the number one three-point shooting team by percentage. 38 0.

5 last year. They had Prince, Green, Porter, Trent, and Rollins all over 40%. Turner was at 39. 6. Porter's 37. Dame was actually lower than all those numbers. They have shooting and they have Giannis, and this number is dumbfounding to me because I don't think they're trading Yannis this season. I just don't see a world where this isn't a 46-win team.

Well, look, what did they win last year? 48? Yeah. They added Thanasus and Alex O'Tentacoumpo.

No brainer. And Russell Westbrook O'Tentacoumpo.

Talk about a freak-off. All the freaks are in Milwaukee. It's a literal freak-off.

It's a G-rated freak-off.

It's the real freak-off right here in Milwaukee town. Now, I think this team actually makes more sense than last year's team. I think that the version of this team... Me, too. Now, I got hammered. I want to right-hand up. I got smashed at the outset of the playoffs because this version of Milwaukee with all those shooters going up against Indiana, I thought that that freak was going to be able to assert his will and the shooters on Milwaukee would keep them in and the Pacers ran them the fuck off floor, and I lost a bunch of money. But I still think that the core identity of this Milwaukee team, like Turner coming in makes it absolutely seamless. He's an improvement over Brook Lopez.

I mean, a huge improvement. I didn't think Brook was good last year.

He was fine. I think where I would disagree with you is that who do I want dribbling the basketball other than Giannis? And at least I had another guy to do that with Dame last year in a pick and roll combination that made sense. Kevin Porter Jr is probably a little overtax in the role he's going to get. Same with Ryan Rollins. But as long as... I mean, and Giannis typically plays about 65-ish games. So the remaining 15 to 20 are going to be big for how much, if or how much they go over this number. I am also on over. Giannis plus shooting just makes a lot of sense to me if he gets to 65, 70 games.

How about Desperate, Giannis? This is my back is to the wall career-wise, and I've thought about this all summer, and I'm tired of losing Giannis.

Kuzma can't be worse. I think Jericho Sims is a decent backup center. I agree with this. And again, but the wild card is, is there a world where this goes really south and Giannis is not on the team after the trade deadline? I agree with you. I think that's much more likely to be an offseason thing than an inseason thing. So I am taking without much thought, actually, this is an aggressive over for me.

Yeah, I have it as I'm locking it down.

So am I. It's triple lock. Triple lock.

It's on my lock.

It's Tuesday, October the 14th. We're taping this podcast, Doc Rivers' birthday.

Oh, my God. How about that? Wow. Happy birthday, Doc.

Triple lock on Doc Rivers' birthday.

Everyone invested in this needs the bucks to win basketball games. They have no picks. Doc Rivers doesn't... I mean, he left lost them the moment they were even hitting a rebuilding. He doesn't want to rebuild with anybody. Yannis, if he's going to be there, he's going to try to win every game possible. Miles Turner just signed this deal and is pissed at Indiana, and he's going to want to beat everybody, too. They also, a lot of the guys in this rotation are still chip on their shoulder. Nobody believes in me. Why don't people think I'm good guys? Kevin Porter, what the fuck has he ever done? He's still playing like he's proving himself. Trent, over and over again gets discounted in free agency. Pauertas. He's born with that chip.

Cole Anthony. How about like, I was a six-man-of-the-year candidate a hot minute ago.

I was given away. I think Cole Anthony could play crunch time for them. I like that Rollins. I thought he was pretty good for them last year. Green is just the one thing we've seen with shooters like that, they get better every year that they're in the league. They always go up. I thought he was good last year. I think this team is going to be good.

Ajay Green is a good player. Great chemistry with Yannis. Pauertas is just rock-steady offense off the bench. We barely even mention him. We take him for granted because he just does what he does. I'm stunned that this line is so low. I don't know what is that was happening.

I really think that's it. I think people think he's just going to ask for a deal. I think they're either fourth or fifth in the East. I have them or Atlanta. Sure. Four or five. I think they're not a playing team. I think they're a play-off team. Mid-fourties?

That makes tons of sense.

I agree. They're top six for me, for sure.

We're all in agreement.

I did write down, if we did get to vote for... You're going to get your vote back, would be my guess this year.

I haven't asked for it.

You don't want the vote anymore, do you?

I'm torn, but we'll see how it- If you don't have the vote, you can gamble.

That's why nobody offered it to me, but I'm...

If they added an LVP award for most damaging player who played at least 25 minutes on a playoff team- Don't do this to Kyle Kuzma. Kuzma is minus 250. I can't even think who would be That's another heavy prohibitive favorite.

That's not him. I know he became a punchline last year. He's not a bad NBA player. He's going to bounce back this year.

You're predicting the Kuzma bounce back?

Kuzma bounce back.

Will I hit the legacy button or not?

Not doing the legacy.

2020 champion Kuzma legacy button?

The Kuzma legacy.

Well, they need him because if he actually can be somewhat what he looked like three years ago before House's Wizards contaminated him.

Well, not contaminated.

He got bit by a spider.

He was his own... It was a self-sabotage alongside what was happening with the team. The problem with him, what happened is that he checked the fuck out two years ago, and you can't flip a switch in this league and show up with a team that's contending and get your head right for contending. We're going to see this offseason with this group is his head in the right place?

I'm proud that we got through this whole segment without talking about Yannis' future and where he's going to go.

Well, we did. We talked around it.

You have a whole season to do that.

If there was one team, if we're wrong and he gets traded during the season, you could only pick one team that that trade would happen to. What is the team?

Do I have to go first?

I'll go first. Go ahead. San Antonio.

Okay.

Because I don't think the Knicks, I just don't think it's an advertising trade for the Bucks. I'm not trading Yannis for what the Knicks are offering.

Houston Good.

So you guys took one and two.

So what's that trade? Schengen. I don't know it.

You just asked me to name a team. Stop there.

I'm not going any further. Schengen.

Mine is.

Reid Sheppard.

Oklahoma City.

That's insane. Okay.

Just saying they have the picks and the players.

Presti is even more risk averse than Zack.

What's the risk of taking on Yannis?

They just won the championship.

We all picked them to lock in over 62 and a half wins. What are they trading for Yannis for?

Does Yannis hurt Yannis diminishes their win potential?

I feel comfortable predicting that he will not get traded. It's okay, so. That's fine. I'm reporting that right now. This is a ridiculous exercise.

So I gave an answer.

I don't think San Antonio is ridiculous.

It's not.

I think that's the team that makes a ton of sense. And by the way, Yannis and Wemby on the same team is absolutely like Zack, putting the microphone down, walking away, doing a couple of laps, doing this a few times.

That's That's all fine. But just acknowledge that that is an enormous fuck you to Milwaukee. There's nothing they're getting back from San Antonio other than, We'll be good in five years, guys. We'll be good again in five years.

Fox can be in that trade.

I was going to say.

And we'll be good again in five years.

Castle could be in that trade.

We'll be good again in the East in three years.

There's a bunch of pics that could go in that trade.

That's what I mean. That's what I'm saying.

Kelly O'Linnett could be in that trade.

I love Kelly O'Linnett.

Lou Cornet on top of the book.

Great Lou Cornet came. He's hanging up. Don't mention Lou Cornet.

One of the best eaters in the NBA, Kelly O'Linnett.

Our next team is the Indiana Pacers. The over-under was at 38. 5. It dropped to 37. 5, and now it is at a comfortable 36. 5. I think because Oh, I remember, Tyrese Halbern is out for the year. That probably hurts it. Mcconnell is out for the first month, it looks like. And they lost Miles Turner to the Bucks. They were 15-32 last year. So this would be a 14-win drop if you think they're going under. They are plus 154 for the playoffs. They're plus 110 for the play-in. They are 35 to 1 for the conference. They do have their own first-round pick. I'm going to do my first, Are we Sure? Of either over or under pod. Are we sure the Pacers aren't going to be pretty good?

So you're going over? I mean, I'm not sure. This was one of my toughest ones because the line is very low, 36 and a half. And I will say this for the Pacers. And this is relevant on the flip side to some other teams we're going to talk about. Yeah, they lost Halliburton. Their whole identity is wrapped up in how he plays, and particularly how he plays with the stretch center who they also lost and are replacing with a mishmash of guys who are not quite that player. All that said, this is a bunch of serious fucking dudes who care about the right things. You will never hear anything on this, and a serious coach. You will never hear anything on this team about this guy's hogging the ball. There's a little Matherin like, does he fit in the identity? But this guy's shirking his responsibility on defense. This guy's not executing the scheme. This guy's being selfish. There's just none of that on the team. It's a team of serious adult basketball players, and that gets you pretty far in the East. So that's my answer to, I'm not sure that they're not going to be pretty good or whatever the double negative I just said was.

That said, I am going under on 36 and a half. I just think they lost. What a zag. I think they lost so much of their identity. Zack, zag. I love it. I think they lost So much of their identity, so much of their style of play. Their full-court press is not going to take everyone off guard like it did last year. Mcdonald's already injured. Their margin for any more injuries is pretty slim. Can Nemhardt really be a co-number one option and guard the best guy on the other team? How long can he sustain that? And if we're five games under 500, we do, thanks to the Pelicans, by the way, own our pick, and we don't own it every year going forward. There are some years they don't own it because of the Pascal trade. Is there some reverse incentive? So I'm going under. Sorry, Pacers.

This was one of the controversial over-unders just in general house. What do you have?

I have them over because 37 is such a low bar in the East. Zack made a compelling case, the case, for why this team is not showing up to roll over. They get derailed with any more injuries. They cannot have any more injuries. But I have Benedict Matherin in my most improved. I'm looking hot and heavy at those odds. It's a great job, Haes. Wow. He gets the touches. I really like it. I think the touches are the thing that into him getting his head right. Because, Zack, you alluded to it a little bit like, Where is this guy? Where is exactly he thinks he should get the ball more than he does. Well, that's not a concern this year.

He's 14 to one on Fando, second best outs.

Wow, really? Who's number one?

Ahmed Thompson, plus 850. And your guy, his brother is 20 to 1. I'll book all Nikola Jovich 25 to 1 bets if you guys want to make those with me directly. Exactly.

You know who else is a serious basketball player? Pascal Siakam.

Serious dude. There we go.

Doesn't play selfishly, plays hard all the time. Serious dude. Bunch of serious dude. Naira Neesmith. Neesmith Island. That was an island. Serious dude.

Boy, did we clean up on New Smith Island. I'm going over. I think this team just has a bunch of professional dudes who really got a taste of it for a long, prolonged stretch of time last year and really understood this is the level it needs to be at. This feels great to be here. I don't want to lose this. I was watching the preseason in San Antonio, Indiana last night. Just Toppen. Toppen is going to play more minutes this year. Toppen is ready for it. Toppen is good. You think Toppen is like, Oh, no, we lost Miles Turner. He's like, Fuck that. More minutes for me. Siakam, Neesmith, Matherin. You think he's super upset that he's going to be getting all the Tyrese Halbert in touches for six months. He's fine with it.

Contractee of Matheron.

Could be.

Love them hard. I'm excited to see what he can do with more stuff. Jairus Walker? I've always liked Jairus Walker. I've been mentioning that for the last two years. I really want to see what happens with him. I guess the thing for me is, can they mismatch Phil, the Turner stuff with Toppen, with Isiah Jackson, with Huff? Can they just to piece together a facimile of his numbers and not- A facimile? A facimile. Factimile. Factimile. I'm sorry, was that ignominious?

Well, you're going to...

It's where a fax machine comes from, facsimile.

I think they can patch together as numbers on offense. Defense probably won't be the same, but he was a real liability in that OKC series. I like Huff. I really like Carla Lyle. My biggest fear is beyond Halbert and can they survive the loss of James Johnson, what he brought. Knowing that you're winning any bench clearing bra so you can be aggressive because James Johnson is right there. He's your double deuce bouncer. I'm a hard over and it's a borderline lock for me. Wow. Yeah.

Okay.

I think they're going to be good.

It doesn't feel good to me to take the under on a team of serious professional basketball players. I'm doing it anyway.

There's something about the season after an overachieving team that had some bad something. Somebody left, somebody got injured, whatever. But there's still the DNA of what it took to get to where you got the year before that I think carries over. I really do.

Okay.

Strong agree with that. Yeah.

I think they're going to be an above 500 team.

You're only asking me to win 37 games.

Also, my thing was how much of the DNA is Halliburton.

Right. I would argue the DNA is more from Carlyle and that style they had with all these ball handers, all this pressure, all this unselfishness. It's a little like what I... Not to step on the Celtic section, but I think the Celtics had a real style and a system that even if you take Tate him out of it, which is awful, he's one of the best six players in the league, they're still going to shoot threes. They're still going to have guys who do certain things, and they still know who they are. I like when teams know who they are compared to a Sacramento. I guess I just do- That's the thing.

So we take one more shot at Do they know who they are or are they just tough mentally and physically? Who are they without Tyrese Halliburne and then Miles' turn? I don't know who they are.

Well, I think Sheppard is going to have to step up. Serious dude. Then Matheron. Basically, those guys are going to split the minutes for the Halliburne 30 plus minutes a game. I don't know. I think they're going to be good.

You guys are making me feel bad.

That's not the point.

Don't worry. You can make fun of me for this next one. The Chicago Bulls, 32 and a half. Last year, they were 39 and 43. They lost Alonso Ball and added Isaac O'Coro, plus a lottery pick who won't play. Playoffs plus 320. Year 2 of Buzellas. They went 17 and 10 after the All-Star break. Then the 10th net rate in the league. So, House, why would they go 32 and 50 in a worse east with guys that are a year older?

I don't think they are. I'm not taking the under on this team. Billy Donovan, nine of the last 10 seasons, has won at least 39 games. This franchise has given us no indication that they intend to rewrite the play in purgatory that they are in. That is their playbook.

It's the safest non-tanking bet in the NBA because they just want to go 40 and 42 every year for the rest of eternity.

They want to go to the play in and lose Miami. That is the goal of the Chicago Bulls. They are perfectly aligned to meet that goal this season. I am taking the over on the Chicago Bulls.

To them, 40 and 42 is 62 and 20.

It's exactly right.

I think the better question is, why is this line so low? For a team that's won 40, 39, and 39, why is the line so low? I actually think the line is very well placed. I think this team is going to win fewer games than it did last year, despite the bulk of the team being young. I think the roster is just full of question marks on the wing, almost across the board, of which his defense is getting worse and worse every year.

Defense is bad.

I don't know how they build competent defense out of this team. I don't know how they build an above-average offense out of this team, but 32 and a half is just too low. It's too low for a team that's going to run like hell to try to get to that magical 38, 39 win mark in the play-in. So I'm going over, but I think the line is shrewd. I think this is a worse... I'm going over and I see 34 and 48.

I thought the line should have been 34 and a half. I thought you were getting two free wins. One thing I like about this team as a bad team is they actually know who they are. They have a style. I went to that Laker game last year when they just ran up and down and tried to run the Lakers off the court. Was that the Gitty Heave?

Was that game? Yeah.

The Gitty White together. I really like Buzellas. Me too. Yes. I think there's a little under the hood with him to bump this up. And they have more of a bench this year. I mean, even having guys like Herder and Zack Collins, these guys are at least like-Acorros. 10th, 11, Ocorros. These guys are like, rotation guys.

Bench I think it's an easy over at this number. If you had set the over at 38 and a half, I would have been an under at that, which is where it should be based on what they've done in the past few years. It's interesting that the line of solar. They were also 29 and 40 last year, finished 10 and 3: 00 against a pretty angel food cake schedule. So there's some might be some fakeery there. That's the thing.

We know they don't tank. They, for whatever reason, don't believe in tanking. I said it's like one of those rom-coms that come on Netflix that my wife is trying to decide whether she should click on or not. The thumbnail has Kate Mara, Patrick Dempsey, and Connie Britain. My wife's like, I like all three of those people, but I've never heard of this movie. Should I click on this? Is this movie good? I'm like, I don't know. First of all- That's a 34 and 48 team.

You got to stop right now.

Connie Britain? You cannot- Disparence Connie Britain?

You cannot comp- Kate Mara? Dartmouth College's own Connie Britain with anybody on the Chicago Bulls roster. Don't do it. Like a Kobe White?

Take it back.

Delete it from the podcast. Mrs. Coach.

Mrs. Coach. I won't have it. Wait, Lotus lady.

I won't have it. All right. You want to compare her to an All-Star, fine. Not anyone on this team.

Last 10 years, the Bulls are 349 and 444.

Great. Mission accomplished.

Sixth worst record. The other five teams are all the East. Pistons, number one. Wizards, two, Hornets, three, Magic, four, Nets, five, Bulls, six. The six worst teams in the league the last 10 years are all in the East.

The Kings not being on that list is one of the greatest offsets that I can...

They lit the beam.

But we're all over.

We're all over on the Bulls.

My stock guy.

Oh.

Buzelece, really? Buzelece Island. Well, Zack's right here.

Not everything can be an island. Everybody loves Buzelece.

Zack said there's no value. Okay. Not everything can be an island. How dare you? Are we going to have one island? We're going to create this year? If you want to create an island- I do want to create an island this year.

How about you create Dale and Terry Island, Julian Phillips Island? Those are islands.

I have a couple of Celtic islands.

Pat Williams Island. Pat Williams Island had a decent population for a while. It's déserted. It is, yeah. The volleyball is floating off the Coast.

Josh Minot Island might come up later. Oh, God. All right. So we're all going- Over on the Bulls. Over, over, over. Wow.

It's a sad state of affairs.

The New York Knicks are coming up after we take a break. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA season is coming. Fanduel is the place to let you play your game. Everything, everything they have to get you ready for this season. We're going to be talking about a lot on the podcast for not just today, but the rest of the week and next week. Cool bets, season leaders, player specials, win totals, exact team outcomes, playoff parlays. You can go nuts. Even better, you can parlay your favorite bets together for an even bigger payout. Take a flyer in the MVP race, crown your champion in October, parlay your playoff dark horses. We're going to be doing our season future boost. We're trying to figure this out during the Over and Under pods. Fanduel is going to have it. I'll talk about it on my Thursday podcast. We'd like to put three teams together with win totals, 40 plus wins, 45 plus wins, 50 plus wins. Put them together. And we're on a win streak. We lost last year because of the stupid sons, but we're going to win this year. So get ready for our boost announced on Thursday's pod.

Visit fandil. Com/bs today, and you could start planning your futures bets now. Fandil, play your game. Must be 21 plus present in select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800. Game, or visit rg-help. Com. Call 888-789. Com. 777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut. The Atlantic division, the New York Knicks, over under 52. 5 minus 250 for the division, plus 380 for the conference, 11: 01 to win the title, plus 280 for the one-seat house. They added Yaba Selleh, who we all love, whatever's left to Malcolm Brogdon, whatever's left to Jordan Clarkson. They lost Precious Achua, and they exchanged Tibbs for Mike Brown. Will that solve this? Solve whatever's ailing the next Zekla?

I don't know what it will solve. It's one of those things you could see coming based on how the Indiana series was going. I'm just going to come out and just say right now, they were pretty healthy last year with their core guys, but I'm just going to lead with it. I've seen a lot of unders on this number. A lot of the projection systems are under. It's a big number. What did they win last year? 51 games.

51 and 31.

I'm going over on the Knicks. I feel good about it. I think there's this line of thinking like, well, a Tib's team always maximizes regular season win total. He over plays everybody, blah, blah, blah. There's probably going to be a regression this year. I think this team is deeper. I think the core holdover guys are pretty hungry to prove, hey, we're not just like some paper tiger from the East. We're a real team. We got more continuity. We got cat in the door right before the season started. I know it's a big number. I feel pretty good going over on 52 and a half. I think the Knicks are going to win more games than It is a lock over for me.

I think this next team is loaded. It's a two-unit play on the one seed for me. I think the Knicks are the best team in the East. I think the two things about what Zack just said that resonate. Mike Brown is going to come in and immediately free up some aspects of the offense. Their bench, I think, averaged under 22 points a game last year. They had, scoring-wise, one of the most bereft benches in the league in terms of scoring talent. They have addressed that. They have adults. And I think that the bit that we saw with Brunson injured in the run up to the play-off, the onset of the play-off, where that team got a little more diverse on offense, I think that that clicks. That works with a Mike Brown offense. And I think that that's going to translate into regular season wins. I think they are built for I think it's going to be a New York party all season long this upcoming season. It's a lock for the K-N-I-C-K-S.

Mitch Rob, can we get a real season out of him? That's a game changer in terms of just their versatility on both ends of the floor. I've seen a lot of the projection systems be low on the next. I'm the opposite.

I test drove it. I really tried to talk myself into it because I felt like I had one too many overs. And you just go back to last year, the town's trade happens right before the season, basically. And Mitch doesn't play for two-thirds of the season. And their bench was fucking awful. They still won 51 games. And I think Yaba Selleh is really good. I don't know why more teams weren't on him. I thought, I I really like Cornet, too. But Cornet going for twice the price of Yaba Selleh, I thought was crazy. I also think there's some McBride stuff with them that they can unlock because as a Celtic fan going against them, I was happy when they would take him out. There's some him and Brunson together stuff I think they could do. I don't know. I just... Him, I don't think Brogdon has anything left. I guess we'll find out.

Spot minutes, and he's smart. He's not a big dummy.

Sure, maybe. He's not a dummy. I do think- Then, Shamet found himself in the playoffs a little bit. So maybe they have 10 guys.

I like Shammet. It's confusing to me that Shammet can never hold down. You can't just be a consistent 10th man. No one seems to trust him. I like him. I like him for this team.

There's homecourt advantage, too, with them. And the tips thing was just super weird last year. It was weird to watch in person. He was playing everybody too many minutes. The only thing that really worried me was if the Yana's thing goes bad and all that rumor stuff starts and trades and just this team being in trade rumors could undermine something. I always feel like we underrate that. It would always happen with LeBron teams where starting December, January, February, these guys were just being rumors. Then you I would see how it would affect the team. Towns in Ananobi would be the natural some piece for Yannis. If they're just going to be in rumors from January on, I think that fucks the team up. But I don't think it's going to be enough. In a bad east, 54 55 feels right, right?

Yeah. It's an organization that's all on the same page. It's the CAA, right? It's the CAA organization. Everybody's seeing eye to eye. There isn't any There isn't going to be any undermining.

You're just trying to suck up to Vino right now?

Well, I always suck up to Vino because I was saying, how else am I going to get a beautiful master's best with the CAA logo on it? But there is something to be- House can be bought. I don't know if you knew. That is right-hand up. I think, yes. There's something to be said for that institutional stability and Mike Brown, that fit. There's a fit to the whole thing.

There's going to be a real energy around this team this year, especially if Cleveland starts out a little gamey, if the Bucs start out 9 and 10.

This is the most exciting/pressurized New York Knicks season from the jump since Patrick Ewing's prime.

Yeah, this is a big- That's what's at stake. That's the thing. Those Knicks teams would go 60 and 22, 59 and 23, whatever. All right, we're all on. Wow.

I thought for sure somebody would be under.

I tried. I test drove it. I looked at it. I just couldn't get there.

I'm going to look up what Pelton... Some of the projections are like, Oh, The problem is when you actually start looking at their schedule and you're like, Well, they're going to be favored by 11 in that one.

They'll be favored by 15 in that one. They'll be favored by 8 there. This will be more fun. The Philadelphia 76ers.

For the record, Pelton has them projected 47 wins the Knicks. Crazy. Okay.

Philadelphia 42 and a half. Plus 490 for the division, 13 to one for the conference, minus 240 for the playoffs. They were 24 and 58 during a tank-tastic 2024-25 campaign. They added B. J. Edgecom. They lost Yabis Celi. They're getting Embiid back, we think. Mccain's hurt already for a while. When does McCain come back? That's going to be unclear.

Unclear. But I don't think it's too, too long.

Yeah, it's not. Like in the end of November.

There's a scenario where this team, Embiid, who's skinnier, we should mention. Skinny Embiid and Some guards and a slightly rejuvenated Paul George and stuff's happening. There's also a scenario where the coach and GM are just getting cleaned out in January. If you had to pick one of those two scenarios, what would you pick, Zach? You have to pick one.

What was the first one?

First one is Skinny & Beads, Some Guards. The vibes are good. Didn't realize Paul George had this much left in the tank. Oh, can see the vision.

I think that's a little more likely than everyone gets fired in December, January. I don't particularly think either one is likely, but we'll get there.

Great. What do you got? What do you got for this team?

There's almost no number that's realistic that you could have given me where I would take the over. I just can't do it. I'm sorry. I can't do it. I get the upside scenarios. I get that they shot... I looked this up yesterday because last year, you can point to the missed games, and they missed a ton of games. Everyone knows that. Last year was also It was the first year that they were not good with Embiid on the floor. It was the first year that they were either neutral or... With all three of Embiid and George and Maxi, they were plus two. With Embiid on the plus two total points, so neutral.

You know what the big reason for that was? Other than that he was hurt and seemingly out of shape.

Yeah, he wasn't the same guy.

He doesn't protect the rim anymore. Well, look, I'm just saying- The rim protection stats with him were terrible last year.

And PG, for as disappointing as he was, it wasn't like he I'm abysmal. He's 16 a game, 43% shooting, 36% on threes. It's what you would expect for a player entering the tail end of their time in the NBA in his mid-30s. It's a low number. I just cannot, in good conscience, go over it. I just can't. I don't trust the infrastructure. I say that, I looked this up. This is what I looked up. They shot 29. 8% on threes in Embiid's minutes last year. That's unthinkably bad and should be a case for some encouraging.

How Sure. Edge comes helping that.

How can anyone bet the over on this team right now?

Embiid, 11 years, 452 games house, 31 years old, never made the Easter Conference finals, won five playoff series total.

I think it's better to go to the gas station and get a scratch ticket than to bet on this team going over.

I wouldn't bet anything on this team. I wouldn't bet any. It's a complete stay away over, under, anything. But we have to make a non-bet. I'm picking under, but it's a complete stay away from me.

I would go to the Wawa, the Philadelphia Wawa, and grab a nice scratcher. I would get $100 worth of scratches and try and... That's not a Philadelphia accent. I can't do Philly.

I will say Embiid being in better shape this year, I think is encouraging.

He's listed day to day right now. So is Paul George.

That part's not encouraging.

Day to day.

Hard Under for all of us?

I'm not locking it.

It's not hard. I just had a hard Under.

Who the hell knows what's going to happen?

I thought about locking it.

It's a scratch ticket.

The Embiid thing's too bad. I know we've been critical on them on all the pods, but it just was more fun when he was really good. It was fun to have a guy like that in the league that on any night might drop 60 on a Tuesday night on League Pass. I know the era is over now, but it's hard to believe.

Well, let's press the legacy button. If he plays 60 games... No, he needs 65 to qualify.

He's not going I don't think so either.

I don't think so either. 65 is impossible. They're definitely going to sit back to back, so you're already subtracting. He's not going to be... Bring him out for a minute, then sit him down, AC Green style.

He's not going to be eligible for any of the awards. That's the reason, the only reason I mentioned 65. But if he plays 58 games, 55 games, and this team gets through the East with 44 wins or whatever, and then he and Paul George are both healthy, and Jerrord McCain and Maxie are healthy, and Edgecombe is a revelation, and they arrive at the playoffs, and they win the first two rounds of the playoffs because they get to play depleted Milwaukee or depleted Indiana, something like that. Toronto, who's made the push up, and they're into the Eastern Conference Finals. Is there something we're going to say nice things about Joel and B? Of course.

Eastern Conference Finals- That sounds great. They've literally never been to the Eastern Conference Finals. I understand.

It's why It's why I'm saying.

I think their ceiling is we get to the end of the season and they're like a nobody wants to play us team in the first round of the playoffs. I can't anything beyond that. My soul is too injured to even imagine at this point.

Completely understand. When you're sailing The thing is, hopefully we can become a nobody wants to play us nine seed, I'm going under.

It's just the repetitive knee injuries are scary for the best player on the team.

I'm just too old now, and so are you, house, with basketball. We've just seen too many seasons. We know how this goes with the injured guys. It never ends well.

Obviously an under.

Celtics over 42 and a half. Division 8 to 1, Conference 11 to 1, title 33 to 1. Playoffs minus 225. They turned Drew Hallida into Anthony Simons. They turned Porzingas into Luca Garza and Josh Minot and Chris Bouchet. They lost Al Hoerford. They lost Luke Cornet. They turned Jason Tatum for at least four months into Hugo González. They have a $22. 5 million trade exception in their own 2026 first. They're in the first apron, $12 million over the luxury tax line. For a while, we thought this would be a tank season because they have their own pick. Then Jason Tatum kept doing Instagram videos of how good was looking, and now he's dunking in the practice center and trying to make history with the fastest Achilles come back. Then now openly saying, I am coming back. I'm going to be on the team this year, and I've told the Celtics that. 42 and a half What do you got?

Under.

Okay, make the case?

I just think they lost so much. Their front court is just a morass of completely unproven guys. And I understand the stuff I said about serious dudes with Indiana. These are serious dudes and a serious coach that are used to winning, that know what it takes to win, that know how far you can get in the NBA by just playing hard and playing right every single night. I get all that. They just lost so much that if Derek White misses 15 games, it's just that they have no margin for White or Brown missing any time this season. And And you combine that with all the incentives that are pointing to, are they going to try to duck the tax? Is this going to be if we get to the 40 game mark and we're not doing well? Does this transition into the tank gap year that people started to... I just think there's too much. They lost too much, and there's too much tugging. I'm going under. I'm sorry.

Who are you apologizing to? You. What do you mean? I'm fine.

You've got Tatum coming back on Christmas.

I mean, honestly, I hope he doesn't. I hope he comes back when he's 120% ready to come back. I hope he's cleared to play and then two more months pass before he plays. House?

Under. 42 and 40 for the Boston Celtics. That is under 42 and a half. It is. I honestly would have bet the over if it stayed at 41 and a half because 42 and 40 is over.

It's so funny you said that because I was leaning- That's a cop-out. That's a little bit of a cop-out.

No, it's They're exactly a 500 team. The DNA that you just described is of a winning team. The design of this team is going to be fascinating. They're going to take a minimum of 63s a game. Jalen Brown said he's on a track team, not a basketball team. That's going to be fun to watch. I'm going to enjoy watching it. They're not going to get any offensive rebounds, so they better make the threes. They better be allowed to make threes. But against the East, that's a 500 team with the players they have. I'm betting on them being a 500 team that's under.

Come on. Come on. Go over? You got to go over.

It was so much more enticed than me at 41. 5. Are you serious? One win? 43 and 39. Is way less enticing. To lose less than 40 games. I can't believe you people.

You just made the case for the under, and it's a good case.

Here's the thing. I think it's 50-50. I think it's straight. Totally It's not like our Philly argument where I'm like, I'm not sure. There's two outcomes. The one is that the system they play with and all the threes they shoot with and the Missoula being an alpha, all that stuff, that it just translates better the regular season than people think. They know how to play with each other. There's real familiarity, real DNA. The other thing is what Zack said, where if one guy goes down for four weeks with a sprained ankle, the entire team falls apart or the balance is way off. I'm going to go over anyway. Yes. Yeah.

Good.

I think they're going to be pretty good. I don't think it'll be fine. All the guys that they got, all the weird signings they have, all these bigs. They're all energy guys who play hard. On paper, the rebounding is going to be a disaster.

Disaster. Not on paper. On the basketball court. Everyone's going to try.

I think Jalen is going to secretly enjoy this whole...

I agree with you.

Alpha Jalen. We still have me. I'm sorry. I thought I was still one of the best 20 players in the league. Why don't we a playoff team? I like it. I really like the guards. I think the guards are going to be a problem in crunch time. Prichard, Simons, White all together with Jalen in one big, and they just go super small Indiana style. I think teams are going to be like, What is this?

Look, I don't feel super confident about the under. The guards are really good. I just think the team is super thin in proven NBA players. Couldn't agree I think more. Thin is just bad for regular season.

I really like Simon's on this team. I think he's a potential-The rehabilitation of Anthony Simons. Closes games like they're running plays for him in certain matchups guy. I think there's games where he's just going to have like 35 points. They're going to be running up and down there and be like, just fucking shoot three.

Is that for the nets or for the Celtics?

Well, that's the question. The question with this over and under is, will Simons be in the team in February?

There's different ways they can cut the tax They can get under it. They can flip a couple of minimums here and there. There's different ways.

But if Tatum is playing the last 30 games.

I'm sorry, what?

If Tatum is playing the last 30 games, hypothetically. So he comes back. Last 30 is February.

Yeah.

Who plays more games this year, Jason Tatum or Joel Embiid? Come on, answer the question.

Wow, that's a great one.

That's a great one. Let's get Fandel to write a prop for that.

It's got to be Embiid. Come on.

What's the over-under for Embiid games?

I don't know. I just asked who's playing more.

Embiid's a safer bet. Embiid would be favorite in that matchup. I would have bet it.

I can't believe you're thinking about this.

I just don't...

I love everything about the Celtics discussion. I'm still going under.

Me too.

We Can we talk about Mizzoula enough? So I'm just going to mention this one other piece. I don't think that dude's built to tank. I think he's an absolute maniac. Can you talk about what the Celtics used to have with KG way back when, where it was just every practice, every game, just like crazy, crazy, crazy. I think he's the KG for this team.

Just to be clear, this isn't a tank bet. The under isn't a tank bet. The under is that Derek White misses 15 games or that Jelen Brown- It's going to be right in that low 40s.

The under is like, Wait, how many minutes did Baylor Shireman play last night?

He looks great.

He couldn't be very good. He's just young and unproven. Property available on Shireman No, but Josh Minot Island, I did put a little something down.

Toronto Raptors, 39 and a half. They added Mamu. They added Murray Boyles. They lost Bouchet. They have one of the weirdest rosters/salary cap situations. I think they have a top 10 expensive roster.

They're over the tax.

They're in the first apert.

Over the tax. I don't understand the team. And the over is right around where I would have had it. There's actually a little action plus 104 on the over for 39. 5, if you want to do that. Zack's always a complementary of the Raptors. You're in the back for them a little bit.

It's a great line, 39 and a half.

Yeah. What do you have?

Over. Over by default, the two sweetest words in the English language, default. I just think they have too much talent. I understand all the questions about how weird the is. The bench is unproven. Are any of these shooting guards going to pop? Does Murray Boyle give us anything? Blah, blah, blah. They just missed so many games due to injury last year. And I can get to 42 wins with this roster. If quickly can give me 65, 70. If all the core guys give me some minimum threshold of games, I can get to 42 wins in these. And the organization top down has to win. They're like, this is a front office that is a holdover front office, new controlling owner under super amounts of pressure to see, yeah, this model works, this team we built works. I'm going over.

So for them to hit this house, they were 30 and 52 last year. They have to be 10 wins better.

I mean, they weren't even trying for two months.

They actively took wins off the table in that stretch. They were ahead of teams considerably in the second half and just walked themselves back to losses. It was Was appalling if you were a Toronto fan, rooting for wins. Fine if you were betting on second half, the other teams to beat them in the second half. This is a lock over for me. This is a lock. For all the reasons Zack just mentioned. Plus, I mean, look, five of their top six players last year missed a combined 143 games. They had bottom three injury luck in the league I like the coach. I think the coach is a real dude. I said this to you and you laughed. I think they have in their own heads the idea of being a poor man's Oklahoma City, which is to get out in transition to force turnovers, to take force teams to miss threes and get moving. And they have the guys that can convert. Now, this is why I asked Zack about the plant situation in Toronto. They have extended Brandon Ingram. They didn't just sign that homeboy and say, please show up and give us a good year.

They said to that man, We want you here. And this is a lot of investment in Mr. Ingram. I'm willing to make it, but look, he has to show us this year that he wants to play competitive basketball because it's a team that's built for a decent showing in a weakened east.

I was leaning under for a while with them, and my issue was that they spent all this money in capital to basically lock down a 43-win ceiling roster, which I just didn't fundamentally understand. I don't want to be in the area they are with this really no chance to improve it. It's expensive, and you don't really have a chance to maybe do anything. But with that mindset, 39 and a half, they should be over that because they've spent all this money to lock in a 43 and 39 team, so maybe that's what they're going to be. I don't see a scenario where this team's terrible, especially in the East. They'll score points. I don't know if they'll make sense as we're watching them. There's a Scottie Barnes. Is there something else there? I don't personally think there is. Some people like him more than I think I do.

His shooting really regressed last year across the board.

He was dealing with some pretty bad ankles, playing through some pretty bad ankle stuff for a lot of last year. I'm betting on a Scottie Barnes bounce back.

The Ingram piece, and if you're going the other way, Ingram was available for a year, nobody wanted him. That was weird. He left that Team USA thing basically bagged out near the end, had an injury or whatever, but he wasn't going to play. You're building around him and Barnes, two guys that I don't know if I trust to lead anything. I do like some of their younger guys a little bit as at least rotation guys, but I think they're right somewhere between 40 and 43. You're going over? We're all going over on the records. I didn't want to, but I think there's no other outcome.

You sound like you're-I don't feel great about it.

I locked it. Yeah, I don't feel great about it. Brooklyn Nets over under 19. 5. I'm going under. I'll just tell you guys now. They're going to be awful. This team, wow. I mean, wow.

We can keep it quick if you want. I'm also going under.

We're all going under. The only thing to talk about is how good that coach is, and I'm super impressed. He's another one like Will Hardy to me. He deserves the shot once they get the talent to stay and coach some legit talent.

Yeah, but the front office You already proofed the roster this year. They did. The only argument for the over is three of their starters are Kam Thomas, Michael Porter Jr, and nick Klaxon.

That's like, those are- Hold on. Let me tell my grandkids.

I said the only argument for an over on a line of 19 and a half. You don't have to tell your grandkids about it. Those are like representative NBA starter-level players. Now, and one of them, Kam Thomas, can handle the ball and run some of the offense. I just think, A, they're all going to be trade candidates, and B, if you hand an NBA team to rookie guards, and they have a thousand of them, the results are generally like, disastrous.

I said this in June. The draft picks they made are all guys who need the ball. Even that Danny Wolf, he needs the ball. They drafted all these dudes who need the ball, and then they're going to all throw them out in the court together. I really like the draft last year. I didn't like their draft.

The offense is going to be a mess.

This team is going to be awful. All right, we all went under. Trying to give your tickets away.

It's a bummer that it ticked down from 20: 30 to 19: 30.

Would any net play in OKC?

That's a mean question. I think nick Klaxon. I agree. Klaxon. Klaxon get minutes.

Who's he playing over? Jalen Williams?

No, he's going to get all the home grand miss game minutes.

Yeah, there's miss game minutes there to be had.

Would any net play in the Nuggets.

Michael Porter Jr. Knows the system.

Back up. When does Brooklyn flip the tank switch?

It's flipped. They already flipped.

They flipped.

The season starts on October the 22nd.

They'll let Jordi try to win games for a month. I don't think so. They'll let Jordi settle down.

They are praying someone gets desperate enough to take the Michael Porter Jr. Contract off their hands, I'm sure.

Can I give you, before we go to a break, the Brooklyn Nets, 15 years in Brooklyn recap?

It's a winding tail.

Seven coaches and two playoff series wins. They went for it, tanked, went for it, tanked. They peaked for three weeks in 2021 with Zack's most theoretical great team of all time.

The greatest theoretical team of all time.

They built the Tate and Brown dynasty in Boston. They have some future picks, and they're the third most popular professional basketball team in New York.

You left out so much stuff.

I was just giving you the highlights. What else do you want to put in there?

Well, there's a lot. There's a plague. There's a plague on the world that affected their team more than other people. There's a mascot that they created and then murdered because everybody hated it so much, the Brooklyn Night, RIP.

There's It's good pizza.

It's been a wild, wild. I was thinking in my head, how many of the seven coaches could we name in 30 seconds?

Let's see if this is a good one for House because he's a little groggy now because he has a coffee in five hours. I am groggy. It's true. How many Nets coaches can you name from the 15 years?

Four, maybe.

Would you start naming them? Let's hear it.

Steve Nash, Jordi Fernandez. Oh, from the Jack Vaughn, he coached.

One of them is easy from the last five years. He's now coaching another NBA team.

I don't know. Kenny Atkinson. Oh, yeah, of course. Kenny is good.

Avery Johnson?

Lionel Holland?

Would not have gotten either one of them.

Jason Kitt.

Is that it?

I think that's it. Wow.

Good job by us. It's crazy. Isn't Tony Brown? Isn't there an interim Tony?

There's some interms. Yeah, there's- I don't count the terms. They have their own first.

Sean Mark is still there.

We've talked about them too long.

Sean Mark is still there.

They can swap their first in Houston, 2027, but it's Houston's choice, which is not good for them.

Houston can swap first.

Not good for them. Anyway, we'll take one more break with the Southeast, the most fun of all the divisions. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn Ads. The best B2B marketing gets wasted on the wrong people. So when you want to reach the right professionals, use LinkedIn Ads. Linkedin has grown to a network of over 1 billion professionals, including 130 million decision makers. And that's where it stands apart from the other ad buys. You could target your buyers by job title, industry, company, role, seniority skills, company revenue. So you can Stop wasting budget on the wrong audience. That's why LinkedIn ads generates the highest B2B return and ad spend on all online ad networks. Seriously, all of them. Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one. Just go to linkedin. Com/simmonsbill. Terms and conditions apply. As you could tell from this Over Under's pod, I love betting NBA Futures. One of my favorite things. It gives you a little stake, not just in your team, but you can pick five, six, seven other teams. Just monitor their progress over the six-month season. I like doing finals winners.

I like doing pairings for the finals. I'm not allowed to bet on any of the awards because I have a vote. But the play stuff is really fun. Playing is a fun one. Season leaders, you can bet on stuff like, Will Wemby have a quadruple double this year? You can bet on that on Fandil. You can parlay stuff together. I love betting on Steph Curry for most threes every season because he usually wins if he plays enough games. Anyway, we're going to be talking about a bunch of these during the Overrunner podcast. Then on Thursday night's podcast, we're going to be announcing our big Superboost for the upcoming season. That will be Friday, 10: 00 14 on Fandil. Be ready. Southeast, Orlando Magic over 50. 5 minus 185 for the division, 6 to 1 for the conference, plus 450 for the one seed. They lost Coanthony, KCP, and finally, thankfully, Gary Harris. They added Desmond Bain. They added Thais Jones. They added Jace Richardson, who a lot of the stealth draft nerds really like and think might actually play for them. Mo Wagner is going to come back at some point. Yes. Pretty deep team.

Desmond Baines is the big ad. So they went 34 in 2023, 47 in 24, last year regressed to 21. And the thinking, the common thinking with this team, with the over-under being 50 and a half is that this will be a top three team in the East. Do you agree, Zack Lo?

This is a huge number. When I first saw this number at 50 and a half, starting with a five, I was like, whoa. I was prepared to hammer the over on the early end of magic because I thought it was going to be 47 and a half, 46 and a half. Fifty and a half for a team that hasn't been a top 20 offense in a gazillion years. Team that can't shoot straight. Yeah, they got Desmond Bain, blah, blah, blah. And you know what? I'm hammering the over. Over, over, over. Give me all the action. I just think this team's defense is a legit top three to five defense. Every night, they play super hard. Palo, Leep, Franz, Leep, Sugs, can't be any less healthy than he was last year. Bane, huge addition. Tyus Jones, huge addition. Young guys, I like De Silva, even like Anthony Black, Mini Leap. I just think this team is going to be a regular season wins machine over 50 and a half for a team that hasn't won this many games in a long time.

They could do that. They did start last This year, 17 and nine.

47 wins two years ago? Yeah.

I just don't think they're going to. I mean, we're already in Jalen Sugs. What's the timeline for him? I don't think he's far away.

From what I've heard, he's not far away.

He's not far away. Okay. Okay.

Jalen Sugs timeline injury. Go keep talking to us. I'm just looking this up.

The real thing to me is I still- Left knee trochlea cartilage tear. Yeah, well, we knew about that. I'm just Getting the timeline.

Expected, maybe, removed.

The secret sauce, and I was a prick about it last year. I just need Franz Wagner to be a consistent scorer in this basketball You don't want him to shoot like... I need him to... He had one season of good three-point shooting.

I'm all in on Franz.

You have to be. That's the only way to get to the over here.

Zack's all in on Franz.

He's You know what he is? All in. All right. The hitch is what it is. It appears, it disappears, it reappears. Hitch, first of all, unlike most guys with jump shooting, whatever he had, he keeps shooting, at least. He's just a basketball player. He knows how to play both things.

You're a basket, apparently.

I want you to go under. Go under.

Come on. I already wrote it down. I'm under.

Yeah, we're both under.

Orlando Magic fans, just remember who had your back at 50 and a freaking half?

Me. That's a high number.

It's a high number. You know what?

It's time. I just think 51 and 31 is a really good record for a team that is pretty young, that's adding a big Bane piece, that does no one sucks is coming back, that has this Franz. I never know what I'm getting from him month to month. I don't- Let me see. Go ahead. I don't 100% love the coach.

Oh, there we go. That's the part of it. Make your Jamal mostly.

You know what else I don't like, Zack Lo? Yeah, what don't you like? Lots of expectations for a team that hasn't done Jack shit. It's a good over-under recipe for... We felt for it last year with them, and they had the year from hell. But I just think if this team goes 49 and 33, that's a great season for them. So is 50 and 32. 50 and 32. Another great season for them. Great season. 38, 34. Congrats.

Over.

It's an under.

It's an over for me.

We got to see one time. People were begging for it last year. Let's see a little offensive ingenuity, a little innovation out of Orlando. We can't just continue to tolerate the miss shots. You asked earlier what happened to KCP. What's the answer?

I don't know. Right. I don't know.

None of us have an explanation.

The bench wings make me a little bit nervous. I'm counting on De Silva to give me something. I might be counting on Jace Richardson to give me something. I'm definitely counting on Anthony Black to give me more. That makes me a little nervous. Jonathan Isaac, I don't know how to pencil him in. They just have a lot of guys.

They're like, What am I getting from this guy? What am I getting from this guy?

I think Bane is a transformational stylistic player for them. I think he will unlock a lot of different things they can do offensively. I don't think he's a top 30 player in the NBA, but he's not far from that. But I think for them, he's a game changer. I respect the culture. I respect the I'm going to over. You cannot talk me out of it. I like being on an over island. Over Island. Over Island is the most fun place to be on this podcast.

I did my top 100 exercise for the Ringer, and they had five guys on the list. Atlanta, 47 and a half, another team with a ton of expectations. I chose to go slightly under with Orlando and slightly over with Atlanta.

It's a combo deal.

Yeah. I felt like you had to choose and you couldn't go over for both. I love it. They were 40, 42 last year, and I just like everything they did. Alexander Walker, Porzingas, Cunard, Jalen Johnson back. Missed what? He missed the last two-thirds of the season. I think he has a chance to be an All-Star. Kongbu, they finally gave him the car keys, got rid of Capella, and Trey Young contract here. But I just like the team. I think this is a really fun regular season, get some wins, high 40s range. So the over-under, I wish it was one lower. I wish it was 46 and a half, but I still have to go over. What do you have, house?

I'm in the same boat because I thought about it the same way, which is to say if I'm going to go under on Orlando, then I'm going to go over on Atlanta, and this number stayed right at that 47 and a half. There was 46 early, and I think in the summer, it was like 45. There was some great numbers.

Oh, man, remember the draft? I mean, they were like 60 to one. There were some great future bets with them. I have now.

And now it's at the right number. It's settled at exactly 47. 5, which I think is a super fair number. This is what you're gambling on if you take the over. You're gambling on the infectious enthusiasm of Alexander Walker and Dyson together to create a defensive- With Jalen Johnson.

Yes.

So there's your defense because this team didn't play no defense. This is a no defense situation on the perimeter. They gave up threes to everybody and their sister last year. This team better come out and play some defense on the goddamn perimeter. This is also a bet on Quinn Snyder. We made this bet before. We lost on Atlanta. Did we win or lose last year?

We won in Atlanta last year.

Okay. All right.

One other thing on this before we get to Zack, who's ready to zeg.

He is. He's going to murder us.

It's a stealth move team. They have really good picks. They have that Pelicans 26 first on their own. They have a $13 million trade exception. Maybe Maybe Richa Shay could be on the right table on the right thing. Maybe Jalen Johnson, if you want to start talking and have a really honest conversation.

I was going to say they're the stealth, the honest team because they own the rights to Milwaukee's pics, too.

A couple of them.

So it's an over for Meath House. What do you have?

I don't have to choose between Orlando and Atlanta. I went under on Indiana. I went under on Boston. I went under on Detroit. I'm going emphatically over on the Atlanta Hawks. There's no zag. If It was a zag, it's that I don't have any of this. If it was 46 and a half, I'd feel a lot better. That's chicken shit stuff. I'm going over. No thought. The Hawks are going over 47 and a half, and the Magic are going over 50 and a half. Over.

They have some of my favorite players. I've always wanted Luke Cunard to be on one good team. I always felt like on the right situation, he could be a really good rotation guy.

I thought it might be Memphis.

He had a Memphis moment, but it's never been just for a year. I always wanted to go to Denver. I thought he would have been an awesome Nuggets bench guy. Obviously, poor Zingas. I got to watch that and so did Howe's firsthand. When he plays, he's genuinely impactful. So even if you pencil him in for 50 games, the team is going to be fucking awesome in the 50 games. They're going to be able to go poor Zingas with the three perimeter guys and Trey at crunch time. And I think they're going to be really hard to guard. We used to say should be better this year. He was up and down.

It's a good situation for him.

But their core guys are 23, 22, and 20.

The case for the under is every time we're all ready to trust the Hawks as an NBA collective, they kick us in the nuts.

You are right.

Shooting is a little shaky. Their bench after Cunard, Alexander Walker, and a Kongo. So now we're into eight guys. Their bench after that makes me very nervous.

They're going to need Newell to play. They're going to need to make a trade, which they have the pieces, they have the exception, things to do.

You cannot, and I cannot temper my enthusiasm. I'm going over.

So over under Atlanta All-Stars, I'm going to give you the definites. Yannis, Cade, Palo, Brunson, Mitchell, and Mowbley. I think those are the six definite All-Stars.

Jalen Brown didn't make the list?

Probables, Jalen Brown, Bam, and Towns. I think we can comfortably say those are nine All-stars, barring an injury. There's three spots left. Could the Hawks have two All-stars? So that would have to be Trey. And then I think Jalen Johnson.

Oh, okay. Not Dyson Davis.

I would bet against it because we still have to account for all the Sixers guys, whoever among them survives.

I forgot about the Walking Dead.

Did you say Bancaro? You said Bancaro, right?

I said Bancaro, yeah. So there could be a Bane in there. You know what? It's very possible they could have two. I thought Jalen Johnson. I thought that was the most underrated injury last year. Scottie Barnes maybe. If we believe in Trona. But I thought that was the most underrated injury last year because he was really becoming a guy, like a a capital G guy, and then he was gone, and then nobody talked about him again.

If Embiid plays half the games and has a great-For Voten? And has good numbers, the coaches will pick him because he's got that stature. Then Maxi is still there. If you could pick any- I'm going to bet against two Hawks All-stars.

If you could pick any East team to have three All-stars, which one would you pick?

It has to be Cleveland, right?

Well, New York.

I'd say still Cleveland. Mitchell, Garland, Mowbley feels like the most likely trio. Orlando?

Not for me, no.

Atlanta. Atlanta, with the two picks and the trade exception, to me, there's a bench guy they don't have yet that they're going to have. It'll be worst case scenario, George Nang, Maybe they can't even trade for him because they already had him. But somebody of that ilk, somebody who's a very impactful eighth man. Miami Heat, 38 and a half. They added Norm Powell and Fantechio and Etchua and Yaka Shunis, my favorite post-lattery rookie.

Wow, I didn't know he had that status.

Oh, yeah. I was so mad when they got him. It was classic Miami. You're the thing.

He could draft anybody and you'd be mad that you got him.

No, that one made me mad because it was like he just fell five He got his spots lower than he should have. It was stupid. I was vindicated in the GM survey. Everyone said that was like the steal pick. They lost Robinson. They lost Hy Smith, who they gave away. Remember, I said that. They lost Kyle Anderson. They have their own 2026 first. Most important, Tyler Hero, ankle surgery. He's out. They're saying maybe end of December, to me, that means all-star break. They always lie about that shit. Could be 35, 40 miss games. Does that make Miami a stealth tank candidate for you, Zack Love?

This is my blind faith pick.

He Culture? You and Adonis Haslem, the only two left in He Culture, Allen?

Because the tank scenario is there. The hero injury timetable is unclear. I don't think it's going to be as bad as you said, but I don't know. I don't know.

I just always add three to four weeks to any timetable.

They were 37 and 45 last year, and their best perimeter ball handler is injured. Yes, they introduced another one in Norm Powell, not a playmaker like hero. The playmaking quotient is getting pretty low.

By the way, Norm Powell is more like a heat check.

Finisher, straight line, finisher, shoots some threes.

Just gets hot for five minutes. He's not like, let's run a week of plays for Norm Powell.

That was the idea with Terry Rozier. I don't know what in the hell is going on there. What am I going to possibly be expected out of him? But this is my blind faith pick. I'm allowing myself the leeway of like, I just trust the infrastructure. I think some of the young players, people are already out on Hakeh. I think Hakez bounces back. I like Jovich. I like where. See what Yacachunis gives them.

Jovic is just a blind. Anybody with an itch, you're in.

I like Yowich. I think he's a guy. If he stays healthy, he's an itch, but he's also going to be good.

There's literally no evidence of that, but fine.

We're not going to argue about Nikola Yowich on this podcast. I'm going over on the heat. It's my blind faith pick. Hardest working, hardest playing, toughest, whatever you want to write on the court. They get points. They're bringing back the Miami vice jerseys. That's like five wins. I'm over.

I was excited for that.

I bet you guys are both going I'm going to go under.

Oh, I'm 100% going under.

Under is the smart pick. It feels disrespectful. I'm going over.

I'm a hard under.

I am over. Oh, my God. You're with me. I am over.

The reason is- I don't know how. You're locking it in. You might lock it in. Not locking in. I wouldn't lock in against heat culture.

This team in each of Spolster's 17 seasons has top 36 wins every season. They won 37 games last year in what was most disastrous. Jimmy Butler tried to sabotage the basketball team. He effectively sabotaged the basketball team. He did it. He fucked them up so bad, and they won 37 games.

They were the worst crunch time team imaginable. They were so bad in close games.

Do you recall how many times I went on the Ringer Gambling Show and told people to live bet the Miami Heat in the fourth quarter? Live bet whoever's playing them. It doesn't matter how much they're up by. They gave up double-digit leads in the fourth quarter at an unprecedented rate last year. It was because they didn't have an offensive solution. Tyler Hero just took the ball the last four and a half minutes of every single game, and they lost a bunch of those. We made a bunch of money out there.

This is the question for me. Let's say Tyler Hero was starting this season and playing healthy. 100%, he's good. He's playing 82 games. What would you think their record would be?

Well, the line was not much different than this before his injury, right?

Yeah, it was below 40.

I I think they're a '45 win team. I think they're closer to the Pistons, Bucs tier of the East than they are to where they are. I have them in the Pacers, Celtics cluster.

There's DNA here, but I'm not sure I trust what's going on. But not having Hero for... He was everything they did at crunch time. What are they going to do at crunch time now? They're going to run places or they're going to aim for all?

All they did last year was lose.

Yeah, win games.

Can't get any worse. Just lose worse.

But here's the thing. If you start out the first two months, then they start out 10 and 16 or 10 and 17.

That's what worries me, the pick incentive. At that point, you're like, Fuck it.

Yeah, that's right.

Oh, you want Andrew Wiggens? You're willing to give us a first.

Have we said enough about Cleo Ware yet?

Look, there's a reason I called this my blind faith pick. I'm just giving Miami the over. I'm just doing it out of respect.

Moving on to Charlotte. I'm going under. Over, over, under. Charlotte Hornets, 26 and a half is the over, under. They lost Yusuf Nerkage.

You're You're leading with nerd.

That's a loss. Mark Williams, Seth Curry, and Ekoji. They added Colin Sexton, Dean Witte, one of the Plumblies, Connitan, Knipal, McNeely, and Calkbrenner. He's getting a lot of buzz. A lot of Calkbrenner buzz. Like a lot. He better. Like a lot of buzz. He'll be playing a lot of minutes. A lot of buzz. He's starting for them.

He better.

They just have way more talent than they did last year when you include the part that Brandon Miller is actually going to play basketball and be healthy, that LaMelo Ball is going to try to be healthy and is at a fork in the road. What the hell are you season?

Can you put it as a minimum 10 to 12 wins for you. Who? Caniple. We're at the point where your lawyer has told you it's now okay to start talking about Kniple.

I just think he's going to be immediately impactful. Just glue guy. He's going to rebound. This team, even though they have a center, I think they're going to rebound. They have guys who are fill the box score guys. Bridges had a pretty good year, statistically last year. But I think we have to set... Before we do our picks, we have to set a deadline for, can we find out if LaMelo is a superstar or not? What year is that going to be? It could be this year, it could be next year, you go two years from now. Just let's set a deadline for it because I don't want to talk about it anymore.

A superstar?

Superstar.

I'd give that another a couple of years. I'd settle this year for all-star.

Okay.

Two more years. Great. Two more years.

Can't have a reference on that now. Because he's one of the most popular players in the league.

Yeah, but popular.

But the league needs him to be good. They need good stuff to What's going to happen with them and this team. I like the coach. I think the front office and the ownership, everything they've done are things I would do if I ran a team and I was trying to rebuild and just be like, I'll take that asset, I'll grab that. Grant Williams might be back at some point.

Congrats.

I can't defend the Saloon pick, whatever his name is, because we didn't say a lot.

Tijon Solan.

Solan.

Doesn't look great as of today.

Guys, it's an over for me. I think they're going to be a competitive bad team. I think they're in the high 20s. I think they'll win some games and hang around. I don't think the East is good.

I am also an over. Okay, There are two reasons I don't feel great about it. Number one, does ownership actually want to win games this year? Or do they want one more bite at the apple, particularly since what they get out of Solana is going to be a question mark? That might have been one bite and it may not yield fruit. We'll see. Number two, I just don't know how the hell Charles Lee is going to make this defense anything better than abysmal. Like a Miles Bridges plus whatever non-entities they have at center defense is just drawing dead from beginning. But I think offensively, they could be all right. And just like, I think LaMelo is a good offense player. The numbers suggest their offense was okay with him last year. Miller was a zero last year because of health he's going to play. And this could be with the lack of teams in the West that are outright tanking other than Utah. And combined with the fact that we have now seen a decent amount of years with these new lottery odds where losing at a high level does not reward you the way that it used to.

Huge point. I think this team could win 28 games and still be the fifth or sixth worst record in the NBA and be absolutely fine with that. I am hammering the over. I might lock the Charlotte Hornets over. Amazing. Which is insane.

Yeah, every year, I was looking it up for the last few years because I thought this was one of the most interesting ones. We have five or six teams that are 26 wins and under. So the worst six are usually 25 wins or below. And the question with this bet would be, are they going to be one of the worst six teams? When you think they're in the East, there's easy wins to be had. There's players they have that are... Brandon Miller wants to prove that he's a good player. He's got an extension stuff coming up. Lamelo wants to prove that you can build a franchise around him. Then Knippel wants to prove he's a good player right away. Charles Lee wants to prove he's a decent. There's a lot of proving stuff with this team. I think they'll be fun to watch. I always look at these four o'clock on the West Coast here, and it's always Charlotte, Miami, and Washington, and Toronto. We just said before, the six worst teams in the last 10 years were all these. Those teams are always on at four o'clock. Charlotte's probably the one I would gravitate to of all those teams because I think they're going to be fun to watch.

I think they're going to play with the style. So we're all over.

Yeah, we're all over because we're asking for eight more wins. I think the Brandon Miller thing is most compelling to me. I think he can play. I think he can be a two-way guy, too. And the contract incentive, it's that plus Charles Lee. There's a lot of East teams.

A lot of teams periods. A lot of these teams that we're talking about where the over-unders around 40. You're going into Charlotte on a back-to-back. It's like a pain in the ass game to play. Like, man, they're going to run like dunk all over the score.

It's always a dangerous Celtic game these last few years. Last one. Hey, you made it. Here we are again. We made it. The Washington Wizards That's amazing.

We did it.

It's amazing. 20 and a half. They're 28 to one to make the playoff house. If you want to put some down on that.

No, thank you.

They lost Brogden, Pooh, Smart, Bay, and Holmes. They added McCollum and Whitmore, and they drafted Trey Johnson and got Will Reilly as well. They have a top eight protected first that goes to the Knicks.

I don't think the Knicks should expect that one.

I don't think they're going to be getting that one. So one house, one more worst four teams in the league season, and then you're good.

That's what it feels like. They need to win 21 games to hit their over this season, which is three games more than last season. Just a tiny over for me. I like the over for it. I'm going to be last half full.

Come on, be more enthusiastic. I want to hear the enthusiastic over here.

Yeah, give us your top five things you're looking forward to.

I keep watching this team. They are a bottom three offensive team and a bottom three defensive team. I just like, Where's Trey Johnson is already doing the thing that you want, which is he's the first in the gym, he's the last out. They have to tell him to go home, all of that. That's infectious. That's what you want with a young scorer. He, for sure, rookie of the Year odds.

Cooper flag injury ads?

Well, because he's going to play as many minutes as his body can tolerate. He's going to put up as many shots as the team is willing to tolerate. There is no question that he is going to have the combination of volume shooting and opportunity. That's two-thirds of the- Third best odds, 10 to 1.

Yeah.

That's a play for me for sure. Trey Johnson, Rooky of the Year, is a hard play at a tiny bit over because as a team.

He makes tiny bit of progress.

Why not? Why not?

Tiny over for me for Washington.

What's Dylan Harper?

I think he's 13 to one.

Pretty good ads.

What do you got, Zack?

I'm going under on the Wizards.

It's fine.

Part of this assumes that McCollum and Middleton are going to be traded and/or arrested enough to not impact the offense. Fair. I just think, other than that, you are handing the basketball to a lot of inexperienced guys who are going to be facing adult-experienced defenses, and that tends to go badly. As I said, I'm Zack Loeser earlier this week. I'm excited about a lot of young players on this team. I just think this particular season, I'm actually surprised the line jump from 19 and a half to 20 and a half. I'm not sure why it did. So I'm going under on all three of Brooklyn, Utah, and Washington, which seems basically It's based on gambling history, a very stupid thing to do. No.

I'm also making this one of my locks, which I did last year, too. It's fine. I just don't think Washington wants to be good. And by the way, I like the ask. They did a great job on asset collection. They talk about asset I think Charlotte's done a good job, Washington. But this roster makes no sense if you actually put all these dudes together on a basketball court. It's a bunch of wings. Nobody on the roster is a glue guy. Even like McCollum, they're The only glue guy is Middleton. Middleton's at the tail end of his career.

Bilal Koulibaly.

Who's a terrible offensive player. I mean, he's really bad. I know he's exciting and he'll have a play every once in a while, but he's a bad offensive player.

I'm not defending him.

Marvin Bagley III?

I would argue he's got... Yeah, Marvin Bagley III. I would argue Koulibaly... Who was that guy, Poku, on OKC? That was a great tanking.

Don't pretend like you forgot about Poku. Who was that guy, Poku?

So many O KC wins. Alexander Pokushet. Remember, Poku started playing a lot. I wonder with Kulibali, it'll be a lot of clearouts in March and April.

Don't do that.

Kulibali, call on your number. I do like the assets, though, and I think there's going to be some fun. I've always wanted to see Cam Whitmore on the right team.

Me, too. No, you haven't. You've never wanted...

I've liked Cam Whitmore the entire time he was in the Rockets. He never played.

He's going to shoot a lot of shots. Fine with them.

I think if your name's Cam, you just come out firing. That's what we've learned from the basketball. So the McCollum trade will happen pretty soon. Then Middleton- That's a big salary to trade, man.

Let's see. That's what worries me a little bit about going under is that these guys just might lay around on this team for a while. Okay. And be helpful in ways that I don't want them to be helpful if I'm betting an under.

Okay, let's go through the picks. Cavaliers 56 and a half. We all went over. I'm going to lock that one at 56 and a half.

Do my locks from the West carry over to my total lock total?

No, you can do however many locks you want.

What do you mean, do they carry over?

Well, I was told I need a minimum of six locks. I don't know if that's per conference or total.

No, no, no, no.

Total. It carries over.

I've got five already.

Detroit Pistons 56 and a half.

46 and a half.

46 and a half under for all three of us.

Yeah, disappointing.

Milwaukee Bucks, 42 and a half, over. We already locked it down. Three locks, triple locks, triple lock. Indiana Pacers, 36 and a half, over for me in house, under for Zack. I really thought hard about locking that, but decided not to. Chicago Bulls, 32. 5. We all went over on that. Knicks, 52. 5. Over, over, over. House, lock, over.

Lock the Knicks.

Philadelphia 76ers, Two and a half. Under, under, and I'm going to lock my under. Just for fun.

Dangerous.

Yeah. Is it dangerous, though? Is it, Zack?

I wouldn't lock anything.

Is it dangerous?

They could put the over under at 25 and a half, and I wouldn't lock it.

You know what? I'm going to unlock it. I've unlocked my lock. Oh, you unlocked it. No lock. Lock waived. Zack's right. Just stay away from this team.

Stay away.

Stay away.

By scratchers.

42 and a half. I went over, you guys went under. That was one of our big disagreements. Toronto Raptors, threeovers, including a lock from Joe Haas.

I'm going to lock the Raptors.

I'm locking the Raptors. See? Look at this. Love to see it. Me and Zack are on the same page.

Why did I do that? You know what? Once I lock, the lock is locked.

The lock is locked. You're not going to unlock it.

Net's under 19. 5. Are we all under? Yes. Yes. Well, not only am I under, this is a hard core lock with some Vini's pizzas thrown in.

Oh, Vini.

Lock for me at under 19 and a half. I don't see any scenario where this team wins 20 games. I honestly can't.

You won 26 games last year.

They're going to be so bad. They're going to be like watching when you go... Like when your son started playing basketball and you're just watching these crazy 11-year-old teams of people just running around not knowing who should have the ball.

All right. There should be... Does the Reddit Bill Simmons page, your comparisons need to be tracked? Aten has already been compared to multiple pieces of furniture. The nets were compared to an 11 and under basketball. I would love how many metaphors in this podcast. It's wonderful stuff.

I I felt like I've been late. I feel like I could have dialed it up.

I mean, I compared the Kings to the Hindenburg.

You did do that.

Hawks, threeovers. Oh, I want to do a lock so bad for them.

Don't do it. I'm too scarred from previous.

Hawks. Yeah, it's just- Don't do it.

It's the Hawks.

Miami, under 38. 5 for me, over for you guys. Charlotte, 26. 5, over, over, over. Washington, 20 and a half. I locked that one down as an under. You went under. House went over. So you were light on the East Coast locks.

I'm going to lock something now. I'm locking Orlando over 50 and a half. I feel strongly about this. I like being on Orlando by myself on the over, and I'm going to lock it. You're allowed. I'm going to get super behind that one.

So playoff teams really quick before we Okay. If you just say in the top six, Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Atlanta. Do we all feel good about those four being four of the six playoff teams?

Yes.

Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Atlanta. Would you put Milwaukee in there as the fifth playoff team?

I can tell you who my next two would be, are Detroit and Milwaukee.

Yeah, I have Detroit and Milwaukee in there also.

I have Milwaukee and then Detroit.

Okay, so fine.

Playing Boston, Indiana, Chicago, Toronto, in some order?

Boston, Indiana, Chicago, Toronto. I am kicking out Chicago.

Okay.

And I am putting in- Philly? The Philadelphia 76.

Okay, that's fair.

All right. Well, we just went for... What time did we start? A little before 10: 00. That was a four-hour extravaganza. I'm hungry. Joe House, pleasure as always. Pleasure. Zach Lo is hungry. We did it.

We did it, Zach Lo.

Our first one. Great work. Thanks to Chris. Amazing. Great. For hanging out. Great job. For multiple hours with us. Thanks to Ronick as well and Eduardo. I'm going to be back with one more podcast. We'll do some football. I don't know if you're going to be on it. What? Well, maybe you'll be on it.

We just went four and one, you saw a pitch.

Yeah, we did go. You will be on it. I'll see you on Thursday. On behalf of myself and Conknipple's family, we'll see you next time here on the BS podcast. Must be 21 plus on President's Select States for a Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gamble problem, call 1-800 Gamble or visit rg-help. Com. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat-in-connecticat or md-gamblinghelp. Org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelp-line-ma. Org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8 Hope, N-Y or text Hope, N-Y in New.