Transcript of Unsolved Mysteries + Camp Injury Updates - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/30

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

Ah, welcome in.

Thursday, July 30th. Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway, welcome into the Fantasy Footballers podcast at theFFballers over on Instagram.com/FantasyFootballers. Jason's looking extra golfy today. That's a golfy shirt.

It is a golf shirt indeed. I have golf shorts on and it is time to do the laundry.

Oh, so wait, did you— we golfed this morning and you showered.

I did. I changed out of that golf gear into this golf gear. That's what I was wondering.

So you switched from like the gear you played golf in to now gear you're not playing golf in.

Correct.

Because of the laundry.

Because I've worn all my regular stuff.

But you keep an abundance of golf outfits.

I have definitely purchased a lot of golf gear.

Do you— That is one of the keys to golf.

My shirts in my closet are outrageous right now. Because I had a wardrobe before I took up golf and now I have an entire golf wardrobe.

Do you change at the turn?

Well, if I need to, yeah. I mean, you know, you got to bring an extra shirt.

How often do you need to?

Well, usually it's the mustard and the ketchup from the hot dog. So yeah, it's pretty much every time. Hot dog bowl.

And sometimes he drives home from the turn.

Yeah. Yeah. Sometimes you have to do that.

I never turned around.

Sometimes I wonder if Mike doesn't come to golf as much just because he doesn't want to follow the like decorum and rules of golf.

Which, which part?

Like collared shirts and the collared shirt part is pretty weird to me. I assumed it bothered you.

Well, yeah, because they're like, hey, your shirt looks just like mine. But that one, have you seen what's going on with the neck? Holy crap. That's a fancy shirt.

Do you feel the same way about a, like a fine dining, not letting you wear like a hat or wear and you have to wear a collared shirt in a restaurant too?

The, that one I at least I can vibe more with that one.

Is it because of the like—

Well, it's like you're all in an enclosed area. When it's like when you're golfing, it's like—

They don't see you.

No. The only people who see me are the people behind me because I'm so bad and too slow.

I don't think Al Borland likes the dress code either. Luckily he dresses like a golfer all the time. I do.

But some golf courses make you wear a belt.

I don't ever wear a belt. And why?

Like you have to tuck in your shirt? And me and Kyle and Jason went to a restaurant once and I got turned away because I didn't have belt belt loops on my pants. I just can't stand dress codes, man.

My man.

I've been in the restaurant where they made me take the hat off and what was under the hat was not good.

It's like, you prefer this?

And I was so self-conscious the rest of the time. We have a great show today. Unsolved Mysteries episode talking about belt loops. Yeah.

I didn't need a belt for the restaurant. I just needed belt loops.

Oh, and I was wearing— I missed that.

I was wearing some like expensive joggers, but they didn't have belt loops. Wait a minute.

You were wearing joggers? Yeah, with that, I mean, at a fancy restaurant, that's like sweatpants. No, that's sweatpants to a restaurant.

These are nice joggers.

Are they made of sweatpants material?

No. Are they made of—

when you walk, does it go?

No, that's the khakis make that sound.

Unsolved mysteries, some NFL news to talk about, and the Ultimate Draft Kit is here. UltimateDraftKit.com. More updates to the mock draft tool have been made. We're getting the keeper support into those. And some other tweaks and changes to the settings for you. You'll probably see new updates to the UDK every day or two for the rest of August. The draft analyzer's in there as well. Mike, you were going to add something.

Oh, just the news. I mean, news is starting to pour out.

Another, you're just saying you can get your newsfeed inside the UDK.

Well, you can get your newsfeed. I'm saying for the changes, like, you know, you had like the last month or so is really just a couple vibes here or there from, from some beat reporters. Now real stuff is happening, which like injuries always happens is the injuries.

Yeah, that sucks. Yeah. All right. Quick question of the day comes in from Adam in Los Angeles. Hey, ballers, how do you go about prepping for a live draft without a common ADP displayed? And the randomness that can come from everyone following different ADPs. Should you reach earlier on players that you must have? Well, if you must have them, then probably. Or should you trust that players should fall to their quote normal ADP? It's a good question.

I mean, our main league of record, we purposely every— we have a draft room. There is no ADP sorting there. You come prepared or you don't come. And so we're used to this format where you are, and I prefer it. Obviously, we have the UDK. That's what I draft with. That's what I bring to my draft. So the order of players I like are in there, but I do pay attention to the ADP on that. Like, our charts will always show the ADP of a guy. I'm not going to reach 2 rounds for a guy, even if he's like the next up in the ranking, especially in the first half of a draft. That's just malpractice where it's like you still want to squeeze as much value as you can. So you will take some risks of letting a guy go that, you know, usually goes later. I will say that you also need to know your league. I know in our league, we're a keeper league. Rookies.

Yeah.

Rookies ADP, throw that crap out the window. If you want a rookie, you are taking them 2 or 3 rounds ahead of ADP sometimes. And so you just have to know that that's not going to be the same in every league.

Yeah. And positionally, like, you know, in our— because we're in a keeper league, we know that there's a bunch of running backs that are kept. So all of a sudden that the shift of the supply of really usable running backs, it depletes rather quickly. So you have to know all those things, but have your rankings and just— I mean, just be ready. Just be ready to take your guys.

Yep, absolutely. All right, let's talk news.

News and notes from around the league.

Okay, we have a decent amount to talk about. Jameer Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, both on fifth-year option contracts, rookie contracts, not practicing on Wednesday as they await new deals.

Get that money.

Yeah, that will be happening very soon. I wonder like who's, who's going to get it first. And like, what's the approach here? Are the Atlanta Falcons waiting? They're waiting for the Gibbs contract to set the baseline or—

Oh man, they should be talking.

Yeah. They should be signing.

No, the two general managers should be talking to each other.

I believe that's called collusion.

I was thinking Bijan and Gibbs should be talking.

Yes, they should.

Whatever. Just go get the same contract.

They're both going to get so much money.

But I do, it is interesting the game of chicken of like whoever goes second gets more. More.

Yes.

Because they'll be like, I want, even if it's the quintessential, I want a dollar more.

Yeah.

Whoever signs first, like the smarter franchise is whoever signs the first one to a contract.

Bijan Robinson is 24.4 years old. Jameer Gibbs is 24.3 years old. Same draft, same spot in terms of like the leverage is gone for both teams.

Yeah.

I mean, like Algiers gone and Montgomery's gone. They're in such identical situations. They're the number 1 and 2 picks in most fantasy drafts.

There's plenty of times where—

And they both get paid. And right now they can't get hurt when they're waiting.

Yeah, where a veteran player is holding out for a contract and you're not sure if they're going to get it or not. There's no one unsure here. This is a situation where it's like, just figure it out.

Jonathan Taylor.

Let's try that again. Who is that?

Jonathan Taylor.

Rawr.

Um. He is at practice. He wants an extension as well. He says, quote, I have faith. There have been some good conversations, but I have faith between my agent and the front office. So he is not, um, okay.

That's one where if he was holding out, that would scare me a little bit more.

He already did. Like he did that years ago and then got the money. So maybe they have a better relationship now. Chris Solave has no restrictions and is quote full go.

We love it.

Jordan Tyson participated. Fully an 11 on 11.

Love it.

You're not going to love this one. The 49ers news is always 49ers news. We already last show Christian Kirk not practicing, right? No one wants to hear this. Ricky Pearsall not practicing because of swellness.

Swellness. You're thriving. You're really crushing it today, Andy.

My knee is swell.

Swellness? That's, I mean, I had French toast for lunch. All right.

That'll do it.

Someone told me to get the—

Do you feel swelling? Okay.

So I've got—

Somebody told me to get croissant French toast because they said it would be good. And then I did.

Here's what's really funny.

And now not so swellness.

At lunch, you're doing just fineness. At lunch, at the end, Andy offers if anyone wants some eggs because we ordered from a breakfast place and it was just, it was just some like healthy eggs. It's like scrambled eggs. And I literally thought to myself, wow, good for you, Andy. You went healthy.

You just like, I didn't eat enough.

Like you didn't eat enough, but all you got was like some, some eggs.

I didn't just find out I got croissant French toast.

Yeah, I did.

You should try it. It's so good.

Kyle is letting us know that swellness is a rare archaic word. Meaning the quality of being swell.

Well, Ricky Pearsall's knee is not swell.

No.

But it is swollen.

Yeah.

And the team says all options are being explored. There are concerns. He missed like 6 weeks last year with a PCL strain and then missed more time later with knee and ankle. And it's the same knee.

Yeah.

That same PCL.

And all options, they are the S-word.

Surgeon.

Being used. Yes.

Yeah.

No, that's the fact that it is the same knee. That he had an entire offseason for and it is, it is.

You all right?

Yeah.

Did you have some French toast?

No.

I saw a funny Slack message from you, Andy. You got me. Look, the issue here is it's already swollen up and it's the same knee that he struggled with last year.

Yeah.

They are probably going to have to rest. Didn't fix it. I'm not a doctor, but I mean, the options are rest more and pray more and then hopefully it's fine. But what would lead you to think, oh, this time it'll work? It's terrible. Scary, scary proposition.

I mean, the implications here, you know, Kirk, Piersall, Mike Evans is—

Kirk is banged up.

Mike Evans is tied with Davante Adams as the two oldest players being drafted in the top 72 in fantasy, the first 6 rounds. Those are the two most vulnerable to, you know, I looked at this. I looked at the old players that we've taken, the top 5 that we've taken over the last 3 years in the top 72 and how things worked out. And the basic, the basic conclusion is this, that if you have age baked in as a discount, they kind of can work out. If you're paying up for them, they've been, there's been some years where it can be injury. I mean, look at Mike Evans last year. He was a loss last year.

Yes.

He was one of the oldest. Again last year and it was a loss because of all the injuries. But standing in the way of— this is all to say standing in the way of rookie Deshaun Stribling is a 33-year-old Mike Evans right now because Pearsall and Kittle's hurt and Pearsall's hurt and Kirk is hurt.

And Jawan Jennings is gone.

So and all the news has been so positive around Stribling.

So yeah, Stribling is, is, he's definitely a beneficiary here. But also I do think, I mean, Mike Evans, I stand a little bit more on an island. I mean, he is the clear one right now for this team is currently healthy. And I do think that there is, I don't know what your study was as far as injury dip based on whether where that player has historically gone or just what rounds of the draft. But obviously Mike Evans is not being drafted where he used to be drafted.

No, no, he's, he's priced where there's an age discount right now. Him and Adams are. So that's good. I mean, that's a good thing. You're not paying that, you know, somebody like Henry, like we're not pricing him factoring in age anymore. Like people just keep taking him at the top because we, he's ageless or so it seems. All right.

There was also running back Jordan James who seemed like he should be the favorite for the running back 2 position for the San Francisco 49ers. He suffered a rib fracture. So he will be out some time, which opens that door back up. And it's basically Kaelin Black, their 3rd round selection.

Till he is hurt.

Yes. But Garendo is also hurt.

You know that the electrical substation is— it's already doing some work.

Got one.

Two.

Got two. We have Falcons quarterback news. Tua Tagovailoa suffered a flare-up. He will be out at training camp.

Oh, that's not good.

But don't worry. Michael Penix is not cleared for 11 on 11 and it might be 4 more weeks.

Yeah.

So they are on hold.

The phone is thrown.

They signed Cooper Rush.

Oh, the Tua.

Jack Strand.

Yeah, the Tua injury right now.

That's why I like Gibbs more than B. Sean.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Right now they're saying that it's a minor thing. It's, you know, days, not weeks for Tua. And in the meantime, Penix isn't out there.

Tank Dell was not placed on the PUP to start camp.

All right.

But he will be held out of team drills to open camp.

Yeah, man, please get back, Tank. The world is better with you in it.

Wasn't he a My Guy the year he got hurt?

Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah.

By one of us. I don't even remember what it was. That was yours?

Yeah.

All right. Chris Brazell, also pretty significant injury for the Carolina rookie. They're talking like 8 weeks.

He was, he was carted off.

Third round pick.

Too early to tell. However, it could be pretty serious.

All right. We've got a main segment coming up, Unsolved Mysteries, diving into a number of questions and situations. And we'll find out what we think. In just a minute. I'm just too old to be eating like a cake for lunch, I think.

Probably.

But it's just hard for me to resist.

Because it tastes good?

I think that if I didn't have— I wasn't like born with the genetics I have in my family, I could be one of the heaviest people in on earth.

You definitely eat worse than I do a lot of times. And you are in much better shape than I am. But you also work out more. So, you know, tomato tomato. I will say when we went to the FF Expo, you also got a mountain of pancakes. Chocolate chip.

I'll admit that that was a mistake.

Yeah. It was, it was.

We got there and I was trying to tell you that pancakes are quite variable on the style in which they come. They could be like big giant pancakes. Do you get a bunch of them? Do you get like a short stack?

You got a bunch of big ones.

This was the equivalent. This is the funny thing we do as people is we say cake for breakfast is ridiculous.

Yeah.

But then we say chocolate chip pancakes are acceptable, which is, I mean, what I got was the equivalent of a full birthday cake worth of thickness.

Yeah. 6-inch deep, like, you know, 8x9 slice of cake covered that in syrup.

And I felt ashamed of myself. Perhaps it was on the menu.

Perhaps as a youth, I wasn't paying as much attention. You know, we had the chocolate chip pancakes or the smiley face stuff.

I feel like the way they do it now, though, I think they're stepping it up.

Well, they have.

They have.

But that would— that's more recent in history in terms of giving all the bread in terms of like pancakes, the history of pancakes.

Like, and I like that they're like, hey, American appetites, Mike, I don't know if you know this, they have increased.

Cake for breakfast? No. What if I said I made it in a pan? You're like, oh, whoa, whoa. That's part of a balanced breakfast.

Oh yeah, it's in the name.

It is right there.

Yeah, it's just a cake in a pan that you cover with rich maple syrup instead of frosting and maybe sometimes have chocolate chips in it instead of sprinkles.

Yeah. Okay. That you have in your oven cake.

Right, right, right.

Yeah. I would never have an oven cake for breakfast, but you put it in a pan. I'm in.

We're a weird species.

Yeah, we are. Here we go.

Unsolved Mysteries.

All right, our unsolved mystery number one that we're going to start with is should you buy the injury dip? This year there are four big names among others, obviously. I mean, you could argue Jonathan Brooks and other players too, but neighbors, Kittle, Tucker Kraft, Patrick Mahomes. Jason, you know, we've had conversations around buying the injury dip. We looked up some information, 140 players from 2021 to 2025 who are either coming off of surgery. So they were limited in camp or they were picked or picked up a training camp injury like during camp. And so a pretty big sample size, 140 players. Just giving you the data before you answer the question. 26% or 37 players exceeded their age. ADP. 57% failed to meet their ADP. That was 80 players in that sample. And then 23 players, 16%, they met ADP but did not exceed.

So, you know, you look at that and you say, like 42, 43% of them still worked out as a pick.

Yeah. That's one way to look at it. Yeah.

I mean, because if you meet your ADP expectation, then it's—

well, but keep in mind, you're buying a dip. So your expectation was for them to surpass lower.

Of course. But I'm saying if they, but you still drafted them, like they gave you the points that they were drafted. You're hoping for more.

No, I don't agree with that.

Really?

Yeah. Because I think buying the injury dip implies an expectation that surpasses the ADP 100%. Like I don't, if I'm taking a player on a, on a round, a multi-round discount and they perform to that round, I'm not happy with that pick.

I, with these rookies, generally speaking, you would. You would not be happy with that. Obviously not a bust. It didn't ruin your chance, but the opportunity cost of what else you gave up in that round was—

And more than 50% of them, 57%, didn't even meet that.

The opportunity cost is the same because they're meeting the price.

So looking at this, this is 140 players from 2021 to 2025. This was a redo of a study that in 2018 on the Things to Remember episode, it was don't buy the injury dip. And at that time we had kind of looked at the data and it was really bad. It was like, you know, you more often than not, those dips don't pay off. Now this data, you can argue whether, you know, you're happy or sad with not meeting the, or with just meeting, but not exceeding the ADP dip. Obviously you can't argue that the majority, 57%, correct, failed to even get to the dip. 26% clearly happy with. So when I look at it, the way that I interpret that data is way more often than not, buying the injury dip doesn't pay off.

Yeah, I would say that the idea of them paying off It for me, I interpreted that as outperforming the status quo at that spot. And because you're trying to get a discount on them. So for me, 75% of the time it doesn't work out.

So let's look at the specific players and how it applies this year. Because this year there's a handful of guys that we absolutely love. You know, a couple of tight ends and George Kittle and Tucker Kraft that were dominating in fantasy last year other than their injuries. And then obviously Malik Nabers, who looked like he was going to start on the PUP, didn't even start on the training camp PUP and is running routes today and looking very good.

Let's just put it this way. Nabers, Kittle, Kraft. Where do they go if there is no injury?

Malik Nabers goes in the first round.

Yeah.

You think he goes in the first round?

If he was never injured, absolutely. He would be up there with—

He was in the first round last year.

At 112.

That was with a, you're not sure we have a good quarterback.

And George Kittle, you're talking about him. 5th round. Yeah, probably goes behind McBride and Bowers. Yes, but much higher than 9th.

And then Tucker Kraft probably goes ahead of Kittle.

Yeah, I would agree.

Maybe even ahead of the—

he'd be there with the second-year guys.

Loveland.

Yeah, so that, that's kind of where, like, if you apply that data the way that I'm thinking about it with where they belong versus the discount you're getting, like, You know, if you drop Malik Nabers at 4.02 and you get the performance of 4.02, would you have been happy with Malik Nabers? Because I think you're going to appropriate these guys into spots that maybe isn't the same thing as what you would get there. I don't know.

No, yeah, I don't, I don't think you would be happy with that. I mean, you're talking about a wide receiver selection that you're trying to swing for the fences as opposed to right next to being drafted the same spots, Tee Higgins. You know, if I would imagine that that would be a better pick than someone that is drafted and just barely performing at this level of a draft pick.

So it seems like the ADP for Nabors is likely to rise significantly.

He is—

that video looks like it. Yeah, there's a video of him, you know, he's running, cutting, running routes and seeing the video. He is 100% doing all those things. That doesn't mean he's ready to play football.

No. But, but it's better than not seeing him do it.

It is. Except it's not better for ADP.

No, but it's also way better than the video where he was at the celebrity baseball game and he looked like he couldn't round first.

No, he looked like he had a, like a stilt on or something like that. But so, so when you look at neighbors, Kittle, Kraft, Patrick Mahomes, is the reward there? In the draft to outweigh the risk of taking these players? Obviously, if you take Kittle and he doesn't start week 1, you're now rostering 2 tight ends, right? You've traded the selection for Kittle and another pick to fill in for Kittle for a time. What is your outlook based on that data for those 4 guys?

So I think everyone is priced Honestly, I think appropriately, like Malik in the fourth is— that's an expensive pick. There's great players going around there. But the upside is by the end of the year, you have a wide receiver who's returning first round value. Kittle, because he's— because of the age and when the actual injury was, it was in the wildcard round and it was an Achilles where we just don't have tons and tons of data on on guys tearing their Achilles.

Like Betts did talk about the fact it's a mid-tendon injury. He said it's closer to where the tendon meets the muscle of the calf. And that is generally good news for Achilles recovery. Outcomes are more favorable. But like you said, he does have age working against him.

He does. But he's going in, you know, the 9th as about the tight end 10. You know, the—

I don't feel like the 3 of us have taken him in any mocks there.

No, not usually. I haven't. I mean, I've been— the only one of these guys that I've been drafting is Malik Nabers. I think at the 4th round value, that dip is big enough to where when he gets back to health, and I am aware that it's going to start slow, I'm willing to take that on. When he ends up rising from this, I'm probably also out on Malik Nabers because I think he'll end up— if he is If he is on track to play week 1 and the videos look good, keep in mind he will— usually these players will have a period of time where they're not back to peak performance even when they're on the field. I imagine he's going to be drafted around like AJ Brown, you know, Nico Collins. So that would be like early second round right now. Yeah, I feel like it would be too expensive for me. The other guys I'm pretty much out on.

Well, the one thing I was going to bring up was Patrick Mahomes, just in the fact that his ADP has dropped every year for the last 3 years. But now, so our expectations for him are very low. They were going to be low if he was 100% healthy ending last year with the run that he had in fantasy. But 9th round Mahomes, he was 5th round Mahomes in 2025, 3rd round Mahomes in 2024. Now he's 9th round Mahomes. He's basically like, I mean, he's, he's a really late round quarterback. He had the torn ACL and LCL, not placed on the PUP, not going to see the rushing production from last year.

That's the issue because last year so much of his fantasy production came from the running game. He couldn't find someone to throw the ball to and he scrambled like he had never done in his career, had a ton of rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, really had that dog in him. He was, you know, willing them on drives with his legs that will vanish this year for two reasons. One is the injury and two, they should have a running game. With Kenneth Walker there. So if you take that away, I don't, I don't love the upside.

Yeah.

He was quite a few fantasy points per game higher than his previous 2 years last year.

Yeah. He was.

Yeah. Because the past few years have been horrifically bad. His, his passing numbers averaging 256 yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. Like you take away a good chunk of that rushing and Those are, those numbers are not going to be getting.

He was on pace for over 500 rushing yards last year.

So his, his points per game would have, you know, looking at last year, still not been good enough to be, I mean, that's still to put him outside the top 12.

I don't think they've done enough to convince me to be in on Patrick Mahomes where George Kittle to me at, at that spot, because Jason, I'm with you of If you don't get an elite tight end, just wait, just wait. Because they don't make a difference anymore. They're all the same. George Kittle could be a difference. It is, it comes with a huge amount of risk. But the, the, the risk of those other players is none, but the upside is none.

Does that mean Tucker Kraft's off your board in the 6th round?

No, not, no. So I think I'm open to it.

I think that I am less open to it, but I'm, that one I feel like I'm holding my breath on. I know Mike, you've talked about you're pretty in on Tucker Craft.

Yeah.

What he was doing last year was, was an impact difference maker at the position.

But you got to spend a higher pick on a player that might not be there week one.

Yeah.

That's why I'm out.

I'm out on player, but his injury was in November.

What was the latest?

So the latest we've seen, he was, so he's on the PUP. If you didn't hear that, Tucker Kraft is on the training camp pub to start. And he said, quote, I'll probably come off the pub here very soon.

So it was him.

It's quoted as I. It was not sourced to Tucker Kraft, but probably I'm just going to do some analysis here.

Unsolved mystery number 2. Can the streaming quarterback strategy still work? In single quarterback leagues? This was something we talked about, I feel like ad nauseam from probably the first year we started the show through maybe like 5 or 6 years.

Because it was an elite strategy.

So some data as you kind of craft your answer to the question, but some data that's interesting about the streaming quarterback strategy and what we've seen evolve in the NFL. If you look, and Dwayne McFarland tweeted this out, so this is where the data comes from, but the number of quarterbacks to throw for 250 yards a game. We were at 17 quarterbacks in 2016, 19 quarterbacks in 2018, 16, 16.

Yeah.

Then in 2022, 2023, it was 10 and then 10.

So I guess when the, the 2-shell started hitting, started becoming very popular.

Now in 2024, there were 8 of them. Last year there were 7. So I mean, that's a— we had a year in 2018 of 19 quarterbacks with 250 yards a game. Again, that's an average. That's the average of 250 yards a game. Now it's 7. We used to shoot for 250 and 2 when you're streaming a quarterback and we're not seeing that as a very common average.

Yeah, not an average across the season, but that's the point of streaming, right? Is you can find a matchup in a game where a guy who you would not usually expect averaging 250 and 2 should go out there and throw for 250 and 2, if not, if not more.

Now we have also seen the fewest total pass attempts. Last year in the last 15 years.

Yeah. But scramble rates have risen. And that's where when we're talking about late round quarterbacks, streaming quarterbacks, you're looking for those guys that can scramble. They can, they can. That's today's NFL is using the legs more. That's better for fantasy football. So that's Jackson Dart, Kyle Murray.

We're more aware of that. And so those players are getting pulled up in drafts.

Exactly. That's what happened. That's why the strategy, you know, if you're saying, oh, it hasn't worked as well lately yet because the average fantasy football player is, is wising up there this year though, you still have a handful of guys who are, are, are interesting because they fit the bill, you know, 10th round or later, at least from the ADP I'm seeing right now. Bo Nix, like what's his rushing floor? 300?

Yeah, that's the floor.

He should hit 300 yards. Tyler Shook, I love him. He should hit 300 rushing yards. The next guy, Malik Willis, he could hit 500 rushing yards. Like Malik Willis, he could hit 800. Malik Willis is the— so along though with the rushing, because the rushing is just the floor. You need the passing to take you over the top to become a week-winning type of a quarterback. So that's the question for like, in my opinion, I'll just do Shook versus Willis. I'm so much more confident in the offensive passing attack of the Saints and Tyler Shook.

Certainly.

But you're only getting, you know, I'm not getting Malik Willis rushing yards. But if Willis and that team, if they can figure out a way, that's a, that's a large butt of trying to figure out how like when you're your wide receiver one's probably Malik, but it's probably Malik Washington. And we're talking about like Greg Dulcich as a sleeper. But if Malik Willis can find his way to 200, like 200 to 215, and he's— and you're getting, you know, 1.5 to 2 passing touchdowns, then goodness gracious.

So, well, not all that being said, for— I guess, do you believe the late round quarterback strategy?

Yes.

With including streaming, not just finding a nugget, but like actually having to play week to week streaming can still work.

Yeah, I still believe it.

I do too.

Yeah, I mean, there are names we like. I mean, I think no matter what we say on the show, even if every show was dedicated to Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford, those players' ADPs are not moving.

No.

So there are going to be players like that, like Baker, Daniel Jones coming back that are going to be out there for free on waivers every week unless you're in a super flex league. So yeah, it makes sense. All right. Unsolved mystery number 3.

Number 3.

What will the Chargers offense look like with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel?

It'll look sexy.

You think?

Oh, I do. I think the offense is going to be great. It will look very different. It is a team that ran Justin Herbert into the ground, not just because of a bad offensive line, but also they didn't bring tight ends in line very much. They utilize 12 personnel on just 6% of their offensive plays. That's the lowest rate in the NFL. McDaniel, you know, he is a guy that's going to come in and they, you look at the transactions, they brought a fullback in. They brought in two tight ends. One is a blocking specialist, David Njoku and Charlie Kohler. The offensive line just got so much help. Two All-Pro tackles. That weren't there last year. So I think this, I think it's going to change a lot.

The, to your point about Kohler and Njoku, like Mike McDaniel was one of the, you know, at least in Miami, maybe it was personnel related as well, but he only had 3 or more wide receivers on 41% of plays. He likes the, the 2 tight end sets.

We were very, well, he likes 2 running backs. Sure. Like he, he, like Mike McDaniel is willing to ebb and flow with trends or personnel. I know that having two running backs out there, the amount of time he did, you know, like from 23 on, he had Achan and it's like, well, Achan's a running back, but he's just, he's a real versatile player. We need to get him involved in the passing game. So what will it look like? I think, I think you will have more 12. The idea of them running out Hampton and Keaton Mitchell is pretty interesting.

Well, I mean, they also brought in Ingold to play fullback in front of Hampton.

Yeah.

You can have him out there in those personnel. I, it's hard because the Chargers feel like, they feel like a team where like you go in to the doctor and the diagnosis seems like it's so simple and he's just going to write you the most basic script. And you're going to go home and get well. And now we're on like year 5 of like, you know what, you have, you maybe you have a different disease than we thought. And we keep trying a different shot and a different medicine and a different vitamin. And we are always left with an illness.

I think the personnel matters. And, and last year I was very excited for them.

Yeah. I was going to say, we were, we got to be honest about like last offseason with the Greg Roman combo.

Right.

But we were in that boat.

But it's the thing that happened. The biggest change to me. I mean, we've talked about it a bunch, but they lost their two superstar tackles. So they went— I mean, look at it this way. Herbert had led the league in percentage of dropbacks pressured. That's the first quarterback since 2018 who led the league in that stat and made the playoffs. He was— they just didn't have an offensive line. Then they went out and got one of the best centers.

Yeah.

And now you get two All-Pro tackles. Like, you're going to go from one of the worst to one of the best lines.

Why didn't they give Greg Roman a pass and keep him?

Why did someone's got to take the fall, man?

Well, but I mean, why can't they just say, yeah, we're our offensive line was all beat up. I mean, I feel like it was, I think it's oversimplistic to blame the offensive line by itself.

So here's a question about the Chargers offense for fantasy. We just talked about it and it's great for fantasy. A lot of times people think you want more wide receivers on the field. You don't. The consolidation of only having 2 means that the targets go to the players that are on the field. However, there will be far more of that for the Chargers than what we're used to seeing. So the question comes down to Ladd, who is their best wide receiver. Like, he's their best wide receiver, but he's been, you know, his slot rate the last 2 years, 71%, 64%.

I just have no worries about Ladd getting on the field because I don't think Mike McDaniel's an idiot.

Fair.

No, I thought he was an idiot. Then I would like if this was Nathaniel Hackett, not to, but you know, like a true idiot.

You are saying Greg Roman's an idiot.

No, he didn't. I mean, no, I'm not.

Yeah, he didn't.

He didn't take Lad McConkie off the field a bunch.

No, he just put him in the slot.

That's the idiot part. The idiot part is not playing Lad McConkie. Okay. It's not where you play Lad McConkie. It's not playing him at all. So the fear with the breakdown of 2 wide is that Malkonkey will not be a part of it.

Yeah. I mean, I have no fear of that. Yeah. He should 100% be on the field for that. Last year, Trey Harris technically led the wide receivers in snaps when they were in the 2 wide receiver set. I'm just saying it was— I'm not laughing at you.

I'm getting made fun of for saying Malkonkey. I had French toast.

Swelling again.

I had French toast. You know what? I'm happy I did. It was delicious.

McConkie, Colin.

But if you look at it, what's funny is that I don't remember who tweeted it, variation of where wide receivers line up. One of the players that never moves the most was Quentin Johnston. Like he just doesn't do anything else.

From college on.

And the versatility is going to help in this offense for Ladd McConkie.

This is like, this is a really big one. For training camp to let us know, you know, when McDaniel came in, he had a lot of very nice things to say about Cujo. So it's like, well, then we, okay, we expect him for sure to be one of the guys. Then is it going to be Ladd on the outside? And now you get some Trey Harris talk coming up who is like, he is a good wide receiver in his own right. He just hasn't had a lot of opportunity in the NFL. So it's pay attention here.

To me, a lot of what happens with Los Angeles is that, and maybe why it's frustrating, is the offseason, they're just made for conversation. I feel like every offseason we have tons of conversation around the Chargers since Herbert became their quarterback. And there's so much, and there's a lot of positivity around all their players every offseason. But I'm at the point now where I want to see it proven out on the football field. And I don't feel like we ever allow for the middle outcome. That you're just kind of, you're kind of okay.

Is that what you think for, what do you think this offense, regardless, throw the, you know, the years in the past in the garbage or whatever, this offense, do you think they will be a middle offense, a top offense, or a poor offense?

Not every offense has the opportunity to reach a top 5 offense and this one does with the personnel and the coaching. But no, I think the most realistic outcome is that they are an 8 to 15 offense on the positive side. I think that's the most realistic outcome for the offense.

Yeah, I usually like splitting the league when I think of offenses in thirds to really think like the top third offense are good offenses. And the bottom third offenses are ones I want to avoid. I think they'll be in the top third, which I think you think that too based on, you know, the 8 to 15 is more in the top third, right?

No, no, that'd be more in the middle because a third means there's 3 groups.

Yeah, but it goes past 8.

10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15.

Yeah, 11. I mean, you can't, you can't evenly split 32 and 3.

8 to 15, like what numbers are more in the, the more numbers are in the middle.

Well, but if it's— do you count 11 as the top third? Because you can't—

it's not— oh, because there's 32 teams. Yeah, I did break it up 10, 10, 10 in my head. Yeah, I shouldn't— we shouldn't have really been—

no, that's— hey, you should— you could take 2 teams and just be like, Cleveland, we don't count you.

We will get our calculators out.

I will say, yeah, with the Chargers, if you're going to draft them, I think their schedule matters a ton. They open against Arizona where they're nearly 12-point favorites. Then they play the Raiders where they are 8.5-point favorites. This is incredible. Like last, just, it's just a reminder. Last year, Justin Herbert in week 1 scored 28 fantasy points and became so locked into everyone's roster that like, you're like, we did it. It's happening for Justin Herbert. Then it fell apart. I bring that up because week 3 is set up to do that again. Week 3 is at Buffalo. Week 4 is at Seattle, then it's Denver, and then it's on the road against Kansas City. So you, while I think they're going to have a great first 2 weeks.

Saying sell.

I'm not saying sell. I'm just saying be honest with yourself about what just happened.

Yeah.

Let me, they're going to beat the crap out of the, out of 2 of the, like Arizona and Vegas.

Let me audit my bottom 4 teams. I think they will be a top 1 offense for 2 weeks. Okay. Let's take a break. I'll be right back.

All right.

We have, we have two more unsolved mysteries and time for one more. Oh, so you guys get to decide. Oh, we either talk about the unsolved mystery of Lamar Jackson bouncing back to elite form for fantasy football.

Okay.

Or we discuss the backfield for the Jacksonville Jaguars and how it will be split.

Oh, well, that one's not a mystery for Mike.

I think it's right now not a mystery for Mike or I. Yeah, I'm, I'm, yes, I'm a little gassy. Yeah, baby.

Welcome on board. Let's go.

Let's go.

This is the day. Today is the day that Chris Rodriguez just got active to go make plays at camp.

To go train on the side.

Yeah. Yeah, but he can do it now.

I simply look, Tuten should. I mean, he's a high upside. All the, all the offseason. Hold on. Let me, let me find it.

Chugga chugga.

Where's our offseason? You know, best player in camp so far. But we haven't seen anybody else. Just saying. So are we discussing?

Yeah, let's go there. Let's go there.

No, I don't want to. How will the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield be split? Travis Achan Jr. is vacating 312 opportunities, 260 carries, 52 targets, 6 receiving touchdowns. We have a lot of red zone attempts that he had in that offense that are, you know, going to be up for grabs. I think that's part of the discussion, right?

Yep.

53 rushing attempts inside the red zone. That was the 4th most in the NFL. And those are gone. So you got— that says it's a great offense. That's what that says. You got a great offense that was in the red zone a ton. And the guy that got the ball the most there, I mean, that's right behind McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, James Cook, and blank space for Jacksonville. So Chris Rodriguez was one of the offseason signings, had played at Kentucky with Liam Cohen. Not placed on PUP, starting to do individual drills at camp. He's coming off foot surgery. He did not participate in minicamp. Bashall Tuten, sophomore. We brought it up on the show when Liam Cohen talked about him. He said in year one, did a lot of great things, but also had to learn a complicated offense, pass protections, you know, figuring out what to do. And a lot of it was not reacting. A lot of it was thinking. A lot of it was processing. And we all saw, you know, to me what I saw the most out of Tuten as a rookie was explosive plays that ended up just happening more in the passing game on a play here or there than it was, you know, chunk plays in the backfield over and over again.

But he has that capability. He's a fast runner.

He's 4.32.

Yeah.

At 209. Like this is, he is, his build.

Oh boy. I'm sorry.

You just seeing the glass eater?

Yep.

Yeah.

I'm just, we got another.

Oh, it's a good quote.

Now we've had a, hold on. We've had a cran eater before and we know who that is and his favorite color cran is blue.

Yes. Did we ever, hey, social guy, did we ever share that?

Yeah, we did.

Okay.

Yeah. Cam Skattebo said his favorite cran. He's a cran eater, right? We got another category, Mike. Liam Cohen came out on Wednesday and said, this is troubling.

About Crod.

About Chris Rodriguez. He doesn't say a ton, but he's tough. He's one of those glass eaters. He is. He's going to run through a wall for his teammates, for his coaches, for their organization. So we're eating glass now.

Okay.

Which is more dangerous than crayons.

Oh yeah.

By a—

Children can eat crayons. Exponentially.

Are crayons like completely like non-toxic?

I think they probably have to be. Huh. There probably was a time where they were very toxic.

It'd be a fun poop.

A toxic—

oh, just no, not a toxic poop. Okay. A non-toxic cranberry would be a colorful adventure.

The glass one would be a painful.

Wait, what is— I don't think it would be a colorful. I think it would still be brown.

I—

yeah, there's only one way to find out.

Oh man, there is only one way to find out.

And Google. The Falcon just throws in the Slack channel $2,000 and I'll eat a box.

Oh my God.

Falcon, we know that Josh will do it for way less.

Josh would eat a box of crayons for way less money. Let me take lower, lowest bids from you guys.

No, we're already down to $1,200. Keep the bids coming in.

$1,000.

Let's see.

Okay. Are we talking like 64 count? No, no, no, no, no. A standard children's, whatever that is. 12, 16, the normal pack. We all know what that is.

$1,000.

$900.

$800. 400.

Whoa, there we go.

We're getting—

go, let me tell you this.

Okay, now we're into it.

We're at a range where somebody might be eating crayons.

We're at a range where I chip in $100, you guys chip in $100. We just needed one. We got to get it to $300.

First one to say it. Jeremy's good for this.

First $300 for a box.

There's $300. I'll chip in.

That's what I mean.

Yeah, I'll take care of that. Matt, you're on the hook now.

I got a new tighter I want to buy.

So are you eating a box of crayons for $400?

I have good news for you. This might change your— this might change. Yes, eating a box of crayons can make your poop colorful. So there is actually not just money in this, but an exciting time.

Crayola has tested their products to ensure they pose no poisoning risk, though eating them is still not recommended due to the crayon.

Oh man.

A box of 24 is the crayon standard.

Okay.

Okay.

So we'll get back to this.

300 and you got a deal. 400. I'm setting the line at 3.

4.

All right. You chime in if you change your mind by the end of the show. You said you have a new putter to buy, but you must not want it that bad.

No.

Listen, this does matter. Like, Crawd is a glass eater.

Yes.

And there are 53 red zone opportunities available. Chris Rodriguez, there's a fatigue and kind of like dismissal of him because of the years of injury and not getting opportunities. He was 4.5 a carry last year on a decent—

I mean, I think it's more than 6 touchdowns. Yeah. No, he was actually— he was— some of the advanced metrics for Chris Rodriguez were very good. We've always liked him. Like, as a show, CROD, we've always said when he's get— when he gets his opportunities, he's been pretty good. But it does really seem like he's the backup for one. Simply, he's coming in. He's got to learn this new offense. Offense that Liam Cohen said it took, it was very hard to learn.

And so he knows it from, from Kentucky, but go on.

They'll be out there running Kentucky's offense still. But then you have the biggest question to me in this backfield is who's going to catch passes because Travis Etienne, that's where his fantasy points came, was really in the receiving game. That is an important part of this offense. Now, is it neither guy, neither one of these guys have a huge production profile in the NFL. But Crawd, year 1 as a rookie, had 2 targets. The number went down to 1 in year 2. And then last year in 13 games, he got his new career high with 4 targets on the season. So it's like that really, maybe he does steal the goal line and that could be a problem. That's a problem. It is also possible we should keep the door open, the undrafted free agent running back. LaQuint Allen could be involved in the, in the receiving game. He is a good pass protector. And so, but it does seem like if you're, if you're taking your shot on someone who's going to be one explosive and two involved in the passing game where most of the fantasy points are going to come from, it is, it's, you know, I'm gassed up for Tuten.

The also in the range of outcomes is that Baysell Tuten is a total workhorse. You know, it's like when Cohen was in Tampa Bay, when healthy, Bucky Irving was— he was the running back position. And truly, Achan Jr. was the running back position last year for the Jags. So, you know, we don't have a full gigantic sample here to go off of, but Cohen might just be one of these guys. It's like, no, I don't want to tip, you know, I don't want to tip the play. Because if you have Crowd back there, my defense that I'm calling in is I'm calling in a run stop.

So I guess a good way to put it would be, are you ever— if Tuten doesn't get gassed up, that's ADP-wise, which he will. But let's just say Tuten is drafted at the top of the fourth round because I think he probably will be.

Top of fourth round would be a substantial ADP jump for where he's going right now.

Yeah, he's not going to go at 5.06 though. If the current— okay, make it 5.01.

Okay.

Okay, make it 5.01. Is there any chance you're going to be disappointed with that pick? Because 100%. You think so?

Yes. There is. Tuton's profile to me is a very risky pick. But the upside is a 3-down running back for a top 5 offense in the NFL, which will be very, very substantial. League-winning capability.

Travis Etienne is a, is a good, well-rounded player, but I don't think he's like the best of the best. And he was the running back 10 in fantasy football last year for this offense.

You can tell Jason has made a significant shift in his tootin' mentality. I am worried about the liability of a box of crayons. So here's where I'm at. Oh, there, I mean, everything I'm seeing, non-toxic, safety, they're more disgusting than dangerous. But what's our lowest bid for one crayon?

One crayon?

We don't need 24 crayons. I just want to know.

$50.

Okay.

$40.

$40 for a crayon? Now I'm feeling bad about like, do we not pay them enough?

I'm out. Okay. $40.

$40 for a crayon?

Yeah. Now let me ask you.

Is the box of crayons for $400?

No, it's $300. That's what it was always about.

You can have the box for $300 or one crayon.

Or one crayon per color.

Jason's pick of color for $40.

Thank you.

Yeah, that's fine. I'd like to go higher if that's an option.

Like more crayons.

You'd like to eat more crayons?

I thought you meant more money. Yeah, you can.

You can go all the way to the box for $300. $300 for a box, $40 for a crayon. You decide. It's your choice.

Up front. This is all off the record.

I just feel like our liability goes up with the more crayons we make him eat.

Yeah, no, this is— we're going to take this outside of the office.

Yeah. TBD. This is a personal, not company-based friendship. No, nothing to do with the company at all. This is just friends goofing around, but social content. You know what I mean?

Well, I mean, they would want to see our friends.

Just documenting history. You guys can pay me and I'll pay Matt just to launder that a little bit.

I would actually never ask, but would you like to ask?

You know what? I am out. I will not be doing this anymore. Yeah, you guys shouldn't. Matt, you should have taken the deal. You didn't take it.

We're done.

Jeremy has a question for you.

Yeah. If $40 for one crayon or $300 for a box of crayons, would you like to offer me $400? I would not.

I mean, you could be the last $100 of that $400 if you want the box, but I'm worried about impaction. He's got bowel problems already.

I change mine.

I go $35.

Oh, what is this?

I'm back in. I'm back in.

One crayon?

Did you do more research?

He's got the dog. It's one crayon.

I'll do it for $30.

Okay.

All right.

Oh my gosh.

Okay.

$30.

This is great.

Oh my gosh. You could be doing it for the lint in my pockets.

That sounds like you wanted more. I mean, yeah. How about $10?

And then capitalism showed up. Yeah.

Yeah. What a delight. All right.

Sold to Matt for $30.

That's between you and him.

Yeah.

I don't know what you're talking about.

But we—

oh, it looks like the—

if you do it, it's like somebody bought a couple boxes. They're on the way.

Hopefully through your personal account. All right.

That is going to do it for today's episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast.

5 days a week coming up in August. On Monday, we have the Ice and Fire episode. Oh, baby. That's our next episode, right?

Correct. Because Saturday is August 1st, which we go to 5 shows a week, Monday through Friday in August.

Amazing.

This Saturday, there won't be an episode of the Fantasy Footballers. However, On the YouTube.

Okay.

Our miniseries is back.

It is. People have been hoping that we'd bring it back.

If you want a short form version of the Fantasy Footballers, like you're like just the highlights, just the tips.

Just the tips by the Fantasy Footballers.

YouTube.com/TheFantasyFootballers.

We just recorded those. Getting ready to release them. August is here. We're getting ready for the Ice and Fire ranking shows, mock drafts, My Guys, MVPs. It's all coming this August.

Goodbye.

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @TheFFBallers.