Transcript of Top 10 WR Rankings + What Could Go Wrong? - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/10

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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

Welcome in.

Monday, August 10th. Welcome into the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Jason Moore, Mike the Fantasy Hitman. I'm Andy Holloway and we are back. The season approaches. The injuries are piling up. That is the official sound effect of injuries.

I feel personally targeted with these, with this current round of injuries.

Yeah, I agree. I mean, Luther Burden and Flowers, say Flowers. Yeah, it's, what's this all about? Oh, and then, you know, even I guess it's more than just injuries I feel like are attacking you in the moment.

What's that?

Because I feel like the news is bending on a couple situations like against you, like the Bayshaw Tune.

Oh no, that, Yes.

I mean, there's a few things that feel like Mike is finally— we're turning the corner on the year of Mike.

The year of Mike is, you know, was back there.

The chips are still in on Tuten, guys.

Oh, okay.

Well, please bring that ADP down.

Is that what it is?

That's my hope.

It's a win-win for you. If the news is bad, then the ADP is down. We got a great show. We got wide receivers today, the top 10 countdown. We've got injuries to catch you up on. That's not so fun, but we'll do it. And it should be good. We have more and more camp, more and more highlights. I mean, Carson Beck, there's no looking at across the field.

Oh my goodness.

That was pretty ballsy.

Yeah.

But if you're a Cardinal, you just do what you want because—

Because why?

What's the worst that could happen?

It doesn't matter. Nothing matters.

Also, you get to throw against that defense, which is you don't even have to look.

That's what that proves about the defense for the Cardinals. I don't know why they paid Jacoby Brissett though. That's the part that's just—

because we are an unserious franchise.

That's why.

Yeah. I know somebody was trying to break it down and I go, yes, but you're applying logic to the situation. That's not part of the Arizona Cardinals.

Correct.

YouTube.com/TheFantasyFootballers. Make sure you subscribe. Click the bell over there. Make sure you are up to date on all the new videos because Sunday Live is coming soon. Mike is with you an hour before kickoff, last minute changes and adjustments. I mean, we can get the rankings. Our rankings get updated all Sunday morning, right up to kickoff. But there's still news and things that are, you know, decisions that you're making. We'd all love to be able to lock our lineup in on, you know, Wednesday afternoon and have it be a done deal. That's just not how fantasy works.

Well, and everything is, you know, it, there's nuance to everything in fantasy football. You know, we talk through, we talk through rankings of like sometimes a player is slightly ranked ahead, but look at the actual situation. Don't just go off blindly off of this, this list. What does your team need? And also Just the Tips. It is our short form content that we've been putting out in August. New episode just hit on Saturday.

What's that?

Exclusive. This week was sleepers, 10 late round sleepers talking through. You know, like my process of how we identify those situations and then not just giving you situations, but also some names that, that like I'm going after.

Is Dontavian Wicks one of the 10?

He's not in this one.

He could be though.

He's the drumbeat is getting louder.

Yeah. And that is exclusively on YouTube.

Yes.

Yep. YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers can watch it over there. What else is going on? You can follow us on X at the FF ballers. The Ultimate Draft Kit available now with the new mock draft tool, ultimatedraftkit.com to learn more about that. Become an Ultimate member and get access to everything. Let's talk some news.

News and notes from around the league.

All right. Luther Burden is going to miss the entire preseason. They believe he'll be back for the regular season opener. It is not great news. It's a groin injury. Thank you. That was the authentic sound clip from the practice field and piped it in.

And me.

Groins been getting wrecked.

The groins have been getting wrecked.

Yeah.

More ways than this one was a full disturbance.

Yeah.

The force like I didn't even have to check Twitter. I just all the hair on my body just started standing up.

It's like your actual groin started hurting a little bit in sympathy.

Luther.

The grade 2 injury Matthew Betz is talking about. You just don't like to hear that at all.

Of course not. You don't, you don't want to hear it, especially with the hype that everyone's so excited about Luther Burden, what he's been doing at camp. I will say that the normal timeline for a grade 2 groin strain should put him totally 100% fine to start the season. No dip in, you know, a lot of times we talk about when you're coming off of certain injuries, it takes a couple of weeks to ramp up to pre-injury production. The data doesn't say that on this one. So he should be good to go from week 1. However, there, there does come now a higher re-injury risk. And that would be the fear.

I mean, talk to me for a second of how you're thinking about like, we got news that Alec Pierce is about 2 weeks away from returning to practice. Ironically, on the last episode of the show, I said, I was saying if it's within 3 weeks and then we kind of agreed, all right, within 2 weeks it comes back to practice. I'm feeling okay. Which situation are you less comfortable with? Pierce is coming back maybe in 2 weeks, got the contract that gives him like 3 weeks for the season, a little less than that, or missing the rest of practice with a re-injury risk.

I like, I'm definitely more personally, I'm more concerned about Alec Pierce than I am about Luther Burden. Luther Burden has spent this entire offseason the entire time using himself in the new role. He's established himself and now he's unfortunately got to take some time off to rest. Alec Pierce, one of the arguments I know you've made. I've been more that Josh Downs is going to be the largest beneficiary.

Hold on, let me do the Josh Downs effect.

Yeah, he's also got groin injury now. But you know, the who's going to be the biggest beneficiary of losing the Michael Pittman targets. The issue is Alec Pierce, if he's going to go into that different type of a role and be more of a possession guy, he just didn't get to, he didn't get to practice it, you know, but if he comes back and just plays the role that he's played for this offense for the last couple of years, then there's no worry. Like if I'm a coach, I'm going to be like, dude, he knows his role. He knows this offense. He knows not that he can't move into other things, but obviously that is a big deal when you miss a year. If you want to like really go into a different role, but you missed the entirety of the offseason training camp preseason, all the reps, Jay.

My argument with Pierce has just been that, that he already has done a lot of that stuff. So we'll see what happens with the injury. At least the team has come out and said, hey, he's going to get a ton of more targets. I mean, we have an injured Right now we have an injured Downs and an injured Pierce, a recovering from injury Daniel Jones, a newly minted Jonathan Taylor, and a ready to go Tyler Warren. That's your situation. Dog. Dog. I almost forgot. We have so many shows. It's funny because people text us and message us things that we've said on the show, but we do hundreds and hundreds of shows. And I'm old.

Er.

Than someone that could remember everything we've ever said. So they were just reminding me that if you go back far enough, man, this was like, I forgot about Katston-Dawglin situation. I forgot how much you dogged on the cat.

Well, in college, he was like yet to break a tackle. He was not the, he is the downfield disc guy.

Are you doubling down on it?

I'm just saying that it was true. It was like, that's not, that's objective. He didn't break tackles? No, he didn't. He didn't really break tackles in college. He ran away from guys, but he was not a huge tackle breaker in college.

Devontae Smith, Makai Lemon remain sidelined on Saturday, not practicing. There was a report this morning about like Makai Lemon. It's been a re-injury situation. He is somebody I'd be worried about the reps on significantly.

I got a snake, man. Oh yeah. Oh, that's the kind of snake.

The press conference.

Yeah.

Because of the serpentine slither.

I'll be honest. I was a little scared there. But the report this morning, all the news on Dontavian Wicks has been very, very positive. You got to remember this is not a high, like this was one of the lowest passing offenses in football. And so I love Dallas Goedert and this does not hurt my love of Dallas Goedert. I think he's a sneaky near my guy level, like endorsement from me. I think Dallas Goddard is a machine this year because Eli Stowers, no news. Mekhi Lemon constantly hurt. AJ Brown gone. Dontavian Wicks, you can give him a bunch of press. He's had it before. Got to catch the football.

He does. And even it's a low passing.

But that's the thing. Like there's not a lot to go around.

There's not.

There's 3. Yeah, for the 3.

And that's really maybe 4. I mean, if, if Wicks, Smith, and Goddard are getting more targets than Mekhi Lemon, Yeah, I'm just saying that worries me because you're not getting 5,000 passing yards out of Jalen Hurts.

I agree. And the thing for Goddard is it— he has to run hot with touchdowns, which he was at 11 last year after being 2, 3, 3, 4. You know, the targets, it was 82 targets. So I mean, it's not bad. It's not— no, it's not bad. That was in 15 games. But I was going to mention of, yeah, the volume is lower. But there's always been enough for AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith for them to both be like top 24 guys.

But Wicks is undrafted.

If Wicks truly becomes the number 2, like he has the playmaking ability to really make some noise in fantasy. The drops and everything. Players drop the ball. It does happen. It seemed like it happened more for Wicks and then it just, it becomes this, self-fulfilling prophecy of you're like, we see it. You're like, oh, there, he's going to drop it again. There are some guys traded for him and they gave him like a little bit of boost in money and he's probably starting on the outside.

Drops are not always a sticky thing. You know, you see some superstars, Ja'Marr Chase or CeeDee Lamb or whatever that they go through a little stretch, but there are a few guys and I can think of three. Wicks, Quentin Johnson, Quentin Johnson, and Marvin Harrison where it's like it's become such a thing for them that it can't not be in their head every pass.

Yeah, the league leader in drops every year is always a superstar, but you see D-Lam or Amon-Ra St. Brown. It's somebody that gets 150 targets. So you're going to have more of those. But I just think it's one of those obviously sneaky situations where you can have an undrafted guy which should go at the end of every draft. You could put them on your team and have Like you have two injured guys like Devonta Smith is a, he does get hurt. We talk about when AJ Brown or him miss a game, Goddard benefits. We know that because the data is there because they miss time.

I mean, Wicks was like, there were, you know, if you were, if you were around for fantasy football in the offseason when Wicks got traded, at least I'll just speak for me personally. It was a, oh, this is actually sort of interesting because you already had it combined with the locked in, you know, promised that AJ Brown was going to be traded and it got completely derailed because Makai Lemon was drafted in the first round, which that totally makes sense. But if Makai Lemon is not a factor, maybe have some more excitement for Wicks.

Have you guys heard one word about Hollywood Brown? No, he's there. No, I just remembered like I was like, who else is there? Oh yeah, isn't, isn't Hollywood Brown there? But I've heard like I, if he, if you told me he retired early this offseason, I would believe you. I'd be like, oh, I missed that news.

Josh Jacobs did not practice Thursday or Friday or Sunday with a groin injury. The groin is going around. Jaden Reed did not practice on Sunday. Ankle injury. Matthew Golden, toe injury. So the Packers taking some time off there. Couple of bigger pieces of news. We got news this morning that the, the new center for the Lions is going to miss 8 to 10 weeks. Or longer midseason return. That sucks. That was an upgrade point for them. They went out, they spent the money, and then they're going to miss it. Laramie Tunzel will miss the majority of the season. Torn triceps. That would be the Commander's left tackle. And that's, that's a big deal. It's a downgrade for that offensive line, which means Jayden, which means Bill, Bill. And then Hunter Henry agreed to a 2-year contract extension for $14.5 million. I mean, he's the definition of a Dalton Schultz-esque solid tight end that could— if you start those guys on any given week, they could be fine.

Absolutely.

Hunter Henry is a good player, especially to start the year.

He always gets off to like the first 2 weeks of every season.

Does feel like he owns the first 2 weeks.

He waited till weeks 3 and 4 this year.

Was it somewhere early in the season he goes off every year?

Is there any news that I— I mean, sprained MCL for Isaiah Pacheco. I missed that. They think he'll be ready in week 1.

That's all I know of right now.

Yeah, Malik Nabers trending towards being ready for week 1. That was the other news coming out from ESPN's Jordan Renan. How do you feel about that? Oh yeah, and the quad contusion for Zay Flowers.

Yeah, it seems as far as Malik Nabers, every video that you watch, you go, okay, he seems ready whether he is 100% fully cleared for, you know, every bit of contact in every route. But I've also heard over the last couple of weeks, you know, from boots on the ground that he's looking better. Like every week that goes on, he's looking more and more like himself. So I think come week 1, he will be on the field. I think come week 6, he'll be back to his normal, you know, pre-injury self. Also, one other piece of news. I do believe that the quad issue with Mike Evans is in the past now. He was back out there.

Okay.

Did you move Luther Burden in your rankings because I have not adjusted yet? Okay. I mean, are you going to?

Right now I don't plan to. I was already here. Let me go. I can double check again, but like because of his ADP, we've just been lower on him than the ADP because it took off like a rocket ship.

Yeah. It's ironic because we have not been drafting much Luther Burden even though we, love the talent and the situation because of his ADP. But now with the injury, he's probably going to drop quite a bit as people are worried about it. And then maybe we end up with some burden. I did up his risk rating in the ultimate draft kit.

Yeah. And I may, I maybe moved him just a touch because there, I mean, there's a risk now of, I mean, he could miss week 1. That actually is in the realm of possibility. All right. We'll take a break and jump into the top 10 wide receivers.

Wide receivers.

All righty. We did a wide receiver episode on Friday counting down the number 20 through number 11 in our consensus rankings. We're looking at the top 10 today. This should be fun discussions to be had. What makes a top 10 wide receiver in fantasy since 2015? Someone finishing in the top 10 for fantasy, 67% of them averages 9 or more targets per game. So you're talking cream of the crop. 73% had 8 or more receiving touchdowns. So we should discuss these players in the context of can they reach that mark? The average numbers for top 10 wide receivers, 99 receptions on 148 targets, 1,300+ yards and 9.5 touchdowns. Touchdowns. So you're talking big time year.

Yeah. I mean, yeah. Top end is pulling that average.

Yeah. And maybe if we have time at the end, I'd love to know a name. I mean, maybe it was discussed on the last show. Maybe it's somebody else outside of the top 20, but somebody that you think can get up into that tier that isn't in that tier. We'll go ahead and we'll start it off here.

Number 10.

Nico Collins comes in at number 10.

We finally found a guy.

Yes, there it is.

That I am the highest on.

Yeah, it turns out that Mike is the highest on Nico Collins. He's been the wide receiver 9, 20, and 8 the last 3 years. He has not played a complete season ever. I think that's something that might be not talked about much about Nico. 14 games, 10 games, 15, 12, 15. So, you know, when you look at what he did last year, points per game, it was a little bit down. 12.7 versus he's been at 14.7. He's a machine. He's a great player. 3 straight 1,000-yard seasons. Second in yards per route run over the last 3 seasons. We love that number. Seventh in PPR points per game over the last 3 seasons. So he, if you just look at points per game, Puka, Ja'Marr, Amon-Ra, CeeDee, Tyreek, and Malik Nabers, and then Nico Collins ahead of Jefferson, ahead of AJ Brown, ahead of Davante Adams. We know he's the number one. We might not like CJ Stroud a lot, but this is the team that's going to be very good, threatening for the division. Where are you with the, you know, I'm looking, they're favored in 6 of their first 7 weeks. The Buffalo matchup in week 1 should be fun.

Why doesn't he necessarily feel like drafting Ja'Marr Chase or Jefferson? Is it all related to Stroud?

I don't think it's all related to Stroud. A lot of it is also related to volume. He is, you know, the deep threat gets, you know, those bomb touchdowns. That's great. Wins you a week. But he's not a guy that's going to be up, you know, we just talked about pretty much the average top 10 wide receiver is usually about 150 targets. He's not going to get 150 targets. I don't think, I mean, that's just not how he's been utilized this last year. He had 120 targets.

Yeah. He averaged 8 targets a game and we said the threshold was 9.

So yeah, so he's just slightly below range probably.

Yeah.

I mean, last year finished as the wide receiver 8. Which is like, oh, that's great. But it's ironic because we've talked a lot about how Zay Flowers finished as the wide receiver 7, but it was like fake because this year with injuries to other guys and the points per game, like he had his lowest points per game this past season. Nico Collins did in the last couple of years. So what we saw last most recently was not really exciting, really inspiring as like we went into last year believing he could be a top 3 wide receiver and then regressed on a points per game basis. Now you get a couple other guys. The news around Jaden Higgins has been phenomenal recently. I don't know if people are plugged into that, but Higgins has been talked up like crazy, not just by beat reporters, but also, I mean, CJ Stroud himself.

How about by Nico Collins?

Yeah, Nico Collins.

That boy a dog. Got all the tools in the world. Going to be the face of the franchise one year.

Yeah. So I mean, pretty good. And then you get Tank Dell back. So I mean, maybe this just helps open things up for Nico. But to me, when I look at Nico versus the other guys around him, my biggest hardship is just target volume. And I will say he's usually overcome it. So it's not a big scare. I don't, I don't look at him like a, like a bust pick. He's just not my favorite archetype personally.

I wonder what Kyle, Kyle, if you want to look up what CJ Stroud's yardage line is set at this year, that's a concern for me. 217 yards a game last year. For CJ Stroud, a defense, a defense that is going to be built to minimize Stroud's mistakes, allow David Montgomery and Woody Marks to run the football. And then you'd think that Nico Collins would have been a player that has gotten to double-digit touchdowns with that frame. He's never done it. 8, 7, 6 the last 3 years.

Oh no. If these trends continue.

Yeah. I mean, based on how numbers work, but I think those are all, I think you guys brought up the main points there. And I think he's a, very solid, you know, top 12 type of guy, but not going to be somebody that's going to— can finish at number 1. I really think that's possible.

It's really funny because there's 2 like types of options you want in the receiving game. You want a team that is just, you know, the Bengals, the Cowboys, teams that are going to be putting up 30 points, seen as a top 5 NFL offense, or you want a team that's like, they're going to be down all game. They've got to throw like crazy. And this is neither of those. This isn't going to be a top 10 offense. At least it's not currently projected that way. Because this is such a good defense. But this is a really good team. They're going to be hopefully running the ball in the fourth quarter versus throwing the ball. So it's like this double whammy against the passing game for the Texans. And it's at no fault of their own. It's, it's a good strategy to win ballgames for the Texans.

Yeah, they have Stroud.

They're going to win. And well, Nico is like the Jaden Higgins stuff. I think it's interesting. Higgins is a, is a He's a fun player as like we're going into year 2. Day 2.

I wasn't impressed on film last year by Jalen Higgins. I wasn't. I watched the film and I felt like he left a lot on the table and I was surprised. Maybe it's Stroud that, you know, brings it down. Not enough opportunities, not enough good situations. The Stroud yardage line is 3,599.

Yeah.

So he's sitting right at 3,600. That's the same number as Baker Mayfield. Stroud or sorry. Nikko's the number one. That's like, that's the argument for Nikko Collins is he's very good. He's like the last 3 years has been solid for fantasy. This past year was more down than the other 2. And Stroud, for all of his weaknesses or, you know, perceived, he's just, he can't get over the hump. He's not gonna be able to do it. 3,600 yards, that's enough where, you know, I've talked about, you know, Teteroa McMillan and Bryce Young. It's like the reason that McMillan kind of freaks me out as the true number one on the team is Bryce Young, 3,000, 3,100 yards. Like that's a good season for Bryce. Stroud, Stroud hit 4,000 as a rookie, was 3,700 in a full year his sophomore season. Even if it didn't work out for us for fantasy football, That's 3,700 passing yards that he can easily return to. And Nico's the number one and is a good player.

His line is set at 3,600 yards right now. And usually if you don't, if you're unaware, lines are set a little lower than what a full healthy game is.

Right. You got to bake in some risk.

Number 9.

George Pickens comes in at number 9. I've got him at 8. Mike is of course the lowest.

Of course.

Jason, of course. So we're right across that. I mean, I, I really, really, I believe Dallas could be a very good team this year.

I agree.

It's not too dissimilar to Cincinnati. We've said it a million times, but they're very similar teams. Two all-star, all-pro wideouts, running games that'll be okay. Defenses that through Caleb Downs and Dexter Lawrence have both improved. To the point where I think competitive, you know, being competitive and winning games with that kind of an offense should be there. You know, the story with George Pickens, number 5 overall last year, he was awesome. 5 weeks of 20-plus points. Only Puka had more week-winning performances than George Pickens. You just have to have 2 guys on the same team finish as wide receiver ones here. We've seen it before. We've averaged one pair per year. Since 2015.

You know, if I had to pick which team does it this year, which obviously I think everyone would be like Bengals or Cowboys, it would be the Cowboys.

Yeah.

The rankings and the ADP are pretty confident for the Cowboys.

What other teams are in contention there?

Would it be like Rams did it last year?

Yeah. Rams. Maybe Detroit. I mean, because Jameson's finished as a top 10 before.

Yeah. They'd be in there.

Maybe. I mean, that was 2025 was Amon-Ra and Jameson.

Yeah.

Dark Horse Saints.

Yeah.

Now we're talking. Now we're talking.

Yeah.

Target competition with CeeDee when CeeDee was in the game. Pickens was at 21% target share. So we don't like that number for a top 10 finish.

Yeah. 21 on his routes, 26% when CeeDee was out. The, I think it's just the looking at last year is it's very noisy of in terms of, I don't think you can cleanly gather out of just doing like the box scores. Hey, you know, CeeDee is for sure just by far the number one because you had early on in the season, it was George, his first games with the Dallas Cowboys and CeeDee Lamb was dominating. Then he gets hurt and George completely takes over. Not only the Cowboys, but he takes over fantasy football. And then the end of the season, they're both doing well. And there's a couple low games here and there. I think George Pickens is truly an elite budding superstar for the NFL. You know, I have him at 12 because I'm just, it's a little bit hedged. His ADP is at 11, but I have no problem with him going at 11. I have no problem with you, Andy. You got him at 8. I think that's perfectly acceptable for what George could do with CeeDee on the field.

If you take out the first 2 games, the argument you're making is like, okay, that was the first time George played with CeeDee in real games. You know, CeeDee dominated those targets.

Takes some time.

Then he got injured. George went off. Once CeeDee came back, so week 7 on, the 17-game target pace when both those guys were on the field, taking out those first 2 games would have been 143 to 137 targets. So it was not that wide of a gap.

However, tough end of the season.

Yes.

Really tough end of the season for the last 5 weeks for Pickens. And you might, you know, the last week I think they sat down starters.

Yeah. That's what I say. The final 3 weeks was tough just for the Cowboys. CeeDee Lamb was 8.1, 7.1, and then doesn't really play the game.

Number 8.

All right, AJ Brown comes in as our number 8 wide receiver. That's where his ADP is right now. There have been moments this offseason where I've wanted to be like super all in on AJ Brown. Like, like it should work. That's it.

Should it almost makes too much sense?

It almost makes— I mean, It's too quiet. I mean, he's, he's been a dominator last year. The much bemoaned offense, he still got it done, still finished at number 10 with 2 games he missed. It should be a very good, at least one more year, I think, for AJ Brown in New England. Now there's going to be acclimation to this offense to some degree, building that rapport with Drake May. Does that happen instantly? We know AJ Brown is a particular kind of guy when it comes to squeaky wheel, baby. Squeaky wheel. And it should be, you know, you're moving from one of the worst passing offenses in football statistically in terms of pass rate and total passing offensive statistics to one of the best in football. New England was unbelievable last year. You can say what you want about the schedule, but production is production. And Drake Maye went out there and like, I mean, they were, they were just really, really good and they passed the ball a ton.

The case with AJ Brown is, does he still have it? Like, that's the entirety for me, because there's some people last year—

Old Man River now—

that looked at the film and said he looks like he lost a step, and he's going to turn 30 this year. So either he's not the same dude and he's lost a step, and so you will be maybe disappointed with where you're drafting him and he's not, and he's not that guy. If that's your argument, Fine. But if he's still good and keep in mind last year he was the wide receiver 10 missing 2 games on a low volume offense. How can he not almost project to be a top 5 wide receiver? This is a, a dominator for fantasy for many, many years who is going from a low volume to a high volume to a team that just lost Stefon Diggs who had 1,000 yards and was basically their primary receiving option. The volume of opportunity for him should be 25% more than it was last year.

I've got two things I want to discuss and get your thought on. One is you may see between building the rapport with Drake May and the schedule, I don't know if you can have a tougher first 4 weeks in the NFL. You go to Seattle.

That's really tough.

Then you play Pittsburgh at home. Okay. Then you go to Jacksonville, you go to Buffalo. You are underdogs in 3 of the first 3 weeks. You're on the road in 3 of the first 3 weeks and you're trying to build a rapport with the quarterback against defenses that are going to be pretty good. It could be a slower start is all I'm saying. It concerns me like if I—

Week 1 concerns me that that first game out there and then playing against a world-class defense in the Seahawks. But like the Jags are a good team and you might be the underdog. The Bills are a great team and you're probably the underdog, but those are also good offenses where you're going to have to pass. And so I don't mind that personally. I think that those, those two games, the Jags and the Bills, those games will be like, I want that. I want those environments.

Those will be huge tests though for a team that had the schedule they had last year. I mean, Drake Maye, we saw him in the playoffs. He wasn't the same guy against these top tier teams. Team. One other thing. What were you going to say?

I was just going to say I'm in on AJ Brown. I don't think that he's lost a step.

No, I don't either.

And if he hasn't, this should be a pretty easy and obvious successful pick.

There have been a handful of guys, 7 in fact, that since 2017 that are wide receivers that just changed teams. And how did they perform? So like Brandon Cooks was the wide receiver 9, became the wide receiver 12 when he switched teams, also went to New England. Amari Cooper went from wide receiver 13 to 18. Beckham went from 7 to 26. Antonio Brown never played again. No, I don't know why they're in the sample. What is it? Oh, he just, he got, that was the year he peaced out, man.

Yeah.

Like, if I remember right, Tyreek got better.

Like it was going well for Antonio Brown.

He was very good. And then just took his shirt off and left the field.

It was a game. Is that what?

Yeah, one game.

Oh my gosh.

We'll move on.

Number 7.

Justin Jefferson comes in at number 7. I've got him at 6. Mike at 6. Jason is at 7. Justin Jefferson is 27 now, guys.

Yeah.

Not forever young.

It happens.

But still very young. This is the number 1 all-time through the first 6 years of the NFL in receptions and receiving yards. We know the player. We just want to know that he has a stable situation offensively. And we now know, like we didn't know, how bad it can get. It can get pretty bad.

I mean, sub-10 points a game.

We've had all-time— this is a really, really good thing to look at. We've had all-time players have down years. This has happened for Larry Fitzgerald before. AJ Green, Hopkins, Davante Adams, they've all had years where they slipped outside that top 20. But you know, they're Hall of Fame type talents. When AJ Green finished at 24, the next year he was the wide receiver 7. When Hopkins finished at 30, the next year he was the wide receiver 1, same team. When Davante Adams finished at 24, he was the wide receiver 1 the next year. The best players end up coming back to form. Everything about Jefferson in camp has been amazing. It's just the J.J.

Kyler mess and maybe, and it's still a mess.

Maybe that's affordability though for a player that could be number 1 again.

It's not really in the sense that most people are in on Justin Jefferson. I guess if you're, if you're taking him as, you know, the wide receiver, you know, 6 off the board and he finishes at 1, then you did get a, you know, a discount. But he could slip into the second round for a lot of leagues for a guy that finished as wide receiver 22 last year playing all every single game. I mean, it was, atrociously bad. And now the— all is forgiven. No one is— no one is off of Justin Jefferson. But the quarterback competition right now this year has not looked great. You know, the most recent reports— it goes back and forth— the most recent reports I've seen are that JJ has had more— Justin— not Justin Jefferson, but 9. McCarthy has had more better practices than Kyler Murray. So it's, you know, it's, it's not, it's not impossible that Justin Jefferson comes out this next year and is the wide receiver 15. Because if he gets, if he scores 5 touchdowns because these quarterbacks can't throw touchdowns, that's the issue.

He had 10 games with McCarthy last year, 5 with Carson Wentz, 2 with Max Brosmer. I do think that that's borderline impossible for him to do in this offense. I think it's going to be better. I mean, a second year JJ McCarthy is better than a first year McCarthy and Kyler Murray could be the starter and that would be much, much better, I think. I think that's too low for me, but you think he could be a full-on— that would be one of the biggest busts in fantasy again.

That would be it. I mean, I get it. The quarterback situation should, should be better this year. I mean, I've got him as my wide receiver 7. I'm not projecting him to be there, but to say it's impossible. I mean, he literally just played every single game and was the wide receiver 22 because of quarterback play. The quarterbacks are not guaranteed to have been solved. And I really do think—

you probably wish they had Geno Smith.

I wish it came down to touchdowns. And you know, that's whether or not around the red zone—

are you bypassing? So like ADP-wise, what I'm seeing right now is after Jefferson is Drake London, And AJ Brown.

Yeah, I mean, every time that I've had that decision, I've gone AJ Brown over, over Justin Jefferson because how far does it go?

Nico?

I would not take Nico over him.

George?

George. So I'm looking at my rankings and I literally was like, I think I would rather have George. That's crazy. It feels crazy.

In which case, you know, it just, to me, it just, um, Like, again, a down year versus a downward trend, I think, are different things. So you're not confident in Kevin O'Connell to get it fixed. Because if you— I mean, to me, it's a discount on Justin Jefferson if you have any confidence in Kevin O'Connell as a head coach.

Yeah.

I mean, I can't let that happen 2 years in a row. And there were, again, you had 3 quarterbacks that started.

And that's why they went and got Kyler, because the hope was, okay, we can— if it doesn't work out for McCarthy, then we just, that we have this veteran who was at least not the worst. Kyler's not great.

He's not, he won't be the worst. Strategically, strategically, isn't the smarter thing for them to do to start JJ?

If, if the camp battles are actually as close as we are hearing, I'm just thinking of the transition.

It's a lot easier to pull JJ for Kyler to me.

I just like team-wise. If it's close, you should be putting McCarthy out there. Because he could be— he's still young. He can still get better. Where it's like Kyler Murray's not getting better.

No.

At football. He is—

he's regressed a lot, actually.

Yeah.

If anything, he's only getting worse from this point moving forward. But it's a mess, man. Like, McCarthy has his supporters online. It seems like the media prefers Kyler. I could look dunking on JJ McCarthy's pretty easy and so fun and based off of what he did last year with the memes, everything. It's pretty fun. So I don't, I'm, I think I'm more on Jason's side of just like Jefferson's ranked high because of I'm respecting the player, what he can do, but the risks are, it's very high, right? You need to know what you're getting yourself into. Don't just It's not blind. Everything is totally fixed. Things could be status quo from last year.

Yeah, right now he's going right next to CeeDee Lamb. Like they're—

Oh, give me CeeDee Lamb.

Yeah, I would take CeeDee Lamb there and Ashen Gentee. Like those are the two players on each side, or if you prefer Hampton or AJ Moore.

It's more about cost is what you're saying because the risk is still there. You don't see it removed. I am comforted by the fact that the comparisons that we have with other legendary wide receivers, you are going to have odd years, but to go from 30 to 1, to go from 24 to 7, you know, Adams, same situation. It's comforting to me. I think the talent is too good and the target share is too large. But yeah, there's risk because we don't have— I think people wanted to see this guy won the job today. Like if I, if you, if you knew today that one of these guys that dominated and was named the starter, would you feel different about Jefferson?

Yes. Yes, entirely. This is not a Justin Jefferson problem. Correct. Justin Jefferson is, I mean, he's probably the best wide receiver. Like, if I was drafting, I mean, Chase is younger. So if I was drafting as a GM, but whatever, but as a prototypical wide receiver, I think Justin Jefferson's the best in football. That's not an anti-Justin Jefferson take. And so If you give the best wide receiver 160 targets, he should be okay. But it is just quarterback.

Number 6.

I'm sorry. I thought you saw it. I got to really just, you got to throw your hand up or something when you're done.

It's just a quarterback worry.

Okay. Number 6 is a quarterback worry.

I'm going to go move him down. I'm freaked out.

Well, talk. It's a perfect next player to talk about, Drake London. Jake London is our— I have Jefferson ahead of London, as does Mike. Jason, you have them flip-flopped. This is where it's like I get a little bit confused about that storyline because, you know, you don't have a quarterback situation here in Atlanta that you should feel confident about. Some combination of Tua and Penix is not the most exciting situation in the world. And so are we giving— does London have a pass because he's thrived in bad situations once versus, you know, Jefferson, who doesn't get a pass because we saw him struggle in a tough situation once? I guess that's, that's kind of my question. Is it about target consolidation? Like, why is London higher here?

I think it is just target consolidation in the sense that You've got Jordan Addison and Hawkinson versus Kyle Pitts and Zachariah Branch or, or, or—

I mean, it doesn't sound too different to me. Pitts is much better than Hawkinson in the target pecking order.

Yeah. Addison's would be way better than those two.

Yeah.

So I mean, I get what you're saying. I think it's a very fair— and that's why Jefferson's usually going above London in drafts. They both have a quarterback issue. And you've got a better player in Justin Jefferson. I mean, I would, you know, have to take a strong look in the mirror to actually select Drake London over Jefferson. This is where when I'm really in that spot, feel more confident in some of the running backs there.

Sure.

As far as what they cost versus when it comes back around to the next round, the wide receivers that are there versus the running backs.

We've only ever had one. According to the data that Kyle's pulled here, because it's very rare to have a top 10 wide receiver in fantasy with a quarterback outside the top 30, like a late round quarterback. The only one to do it, I mean, 2024, Davante Adams, it looks like Drake London with Michael Pinnock's. It's just difficult to pull off.

Yes, we don't—

and maybe Tua plays every week and we're happy with the offense.

That's the question is we don't 100% know what's going on with the quarterback situation. The tea leaves, at least for Atlanta, seem to be stronger for me of it's going to be Tua, at least to start the year. And I know Tua collapsed last year. And this is not a saying Tua is a fantastic quarterback. But he's, you know, Kyler, I guess, has given us some, some fantasy hopes in the past, but it's like Tua is more recent of it's been able to get it done.

Kyler is a better fantasy option than Tua. So when we talk, you know, in the fantasy circles, it's like Kyler greater sign Tua. But in reality, Tua has led the league, the NFL, in passing yardage before. So, you know, Kyler is not a guy—

How much is Tua and how much is Mike McDaniel? Was the— sure, the question.

Absolutely. I would say, you know, 70% McDaniel, 30% Tua. But passing volume, that's, that's never been Kyler's strength. Kyler is a good passer with legs that can get out of the pocket and be a dual threat guy.

Tua's play— he played 14 games last year. He's on pace for 3,200 passing yards.

Oh, yeah.

I said last year was a collapse.

He threw 18 picks. So I, I, I find myself in a position where I trust the talent of Kyler. Jefferson a little bit more than Drake London. And I don't think Drake London is ever brought up in any context.

I think this is to be a bust like Jefferson was last year.

But to me, the quarterback situation says it's at least in the realm of possibility.

No, I think it's very, very fair.

Let's take a break and we'll talk the top 5. All right, we're going to get into the top 5. And by the way, like, This is our top 10 wide receiver episode. So we are trying, like there's a built-in compliment when you announce each player already because they're ranked in our top 10. So we're trying to find pathways to differentiate between range of out, find the range of outcome for these players so that you have perspective.

Number 5.

CeeDee Lamb. CeeDee Lamb's coming off of a down year.

We'll say once you get in the top 5, things get a lot easier.

Is it easier with Lamb?

I mean, it is for me.

11.7 fantasy points per game last year. That was a huge deal. I mean, when he was number 1 overall, it was 19.7, then it was 14.2. Now it's 11.7. Some people think maybe Mike is one of them that Pickens is the better actual wide receiver.

The per-game numbers are wonky. You had his injury game where he played 9% of snaps, scored 0 points, and then week 18 where you didn't play the starters really and he scored 0.9 points. So the per game is not really that low. It's, that's just the easy to grab number when you pull those out.

I'm seeing around 13.

Yeah. So I mean, he also had, he dealt with drops, which was weird. And I don't think that we're going to say he's, I was frustrated, man. I had CD last year. I was like, oh my gosh, he left so many fantasy points on the field with those drops. I don't think that's going to happen all the time. And he also, you know, maybe it was, maybe it was George that was really siphoning the touchdowns away. I mean, I, I loved the George Dax. Quarterback match made in heaven. That's why he was a my guy last year is because he was perfect for that team. But the touchdowns really seemed like they were going George's way. I very much believe that CeeDee Lamb is the alpha for this team. But I think both these guys are going to be wide receiver ones. And whoever is the better, which I definitely think is CeeDee personally, will be dominant for fantasy.

Mike, do you have thoughts on CeeDee? Or do you want me to move on?

No, I think he's very easy, a top 5 type of player. Jason was right about you got to navigate his box score because it was, you know, the last 3 weeks was an absolute disaster. But it's like in real football games, his low was 5 for 66. Like, you know, he was over 100 yards. What, 7 times? I'm trying to count real fast. CeeDee Lamb was still a dominant player. It was just, it was one of those years where the injuries and drops and things just, it got in the way, but he's still an A in consistency.

How old is he?

He is 27.

All these guys are 27. Nico's 27. Jefferson's 27. CeeDee's 27.

All right. Disrespectfully coming in at number 4. Of course. I mean, what? There's nothing better than a receiver that has been the wide receiver 3, 3, and 3.

We're doing y'all a favor.

Coming in at 4. I mean, isn't that just the biggest slap in the face?

It is. No, no. Amon-Ra lives for doubt. He is fueled by hate and negative comments. So we're just, that's all we're doing.

Here's a wild stat about Amon-Ra. He has, he had 11 touchdowns. Touchdowns last year. And what was he— was he dragged down inside the 5 the most of anybody? Yeah. So like Ian Harditz sent this out, led the league in most receptions where he was tackled inside the 5. He had 8 times and he still scored 11 touchdowns. That's how good this offense was. So Amon-Ra, is he the safest pick?

I don't— I mean, safest I would still say Jamar but you've got it close yeah I mean he's to Jamar's point on safety I mean Burrow has been hurt a lot yeah well and Jamar I mean that's that is one of the things that you have to love about Amon-Ra he was supposed to miss a game Isaac Dislott was supposed to have his moment in the sun and Amon-Ra was like no in his career 17 games played 16-6 touchdowns. 17, 17, and he plays through injury. And the thing is, is he plays well through injury. Some guys hobble through injury and they hurt themselves and they should take time to rest. He is tough. He is used around the red zone so much. The thing is, is he years ago, it was like, well, I don't know that he's going to be a touchdown guy because, you know, he's, he's a slot player. They move him everywhere. They have him as a first read target. This is one of those offenses that you want to target the most. And if you compare, like when I think of the tip-top offenses, which I, you could put the Rams there for sure.

They scored, you know, we will. They were there. Personally, I have the three of the Bengals, the Cowboys, and the Lions. But the wide receiver two option for those teams in T. Higgins and CeeDee Lamb and Jameson Williams. I feel like the target share is so much more towards the one for Amon-Ra. They just, he is the possession receiver, kind of like a real version of Rashee Rice. Like Rashee Rice is like, like a real boy.

Yeah.

Rashee Rice is just the Pinocchio, the system using him right and getting him the ball all the time. And it's kind of annoying. Because he's not good enough to deserve that. But then Amon-Ra is and they still do it.

I, yeah, it's just been a crazy run. He stays healthy. He plays 17, 15, and 15 plus points per game. That's just automatic. And they're favored in 14, remember they're favored in 14 of 17 games. I think the only games they're not favored in is a road game against Chicago. I think a road game against Buffalo. And those are going to be fun games anyways. I mean, they're just, they're set up for I believe like the best, just one of the best schedules we've seen in a long time.

And target share the last 3 years, 30%. Sorry, I'll go 4. 28%, 30%, 27%, 31%. This is, this is what we're seeing of— he is extremely safe.

He's unbelievable. And that is, yeah, he's been over 100, not targets, receptions in 4 straight years, over 100 1,000 yards in all of them, but up by 1,500 yards. Oh, trip double-digit touchdowns in 3 years in a row. Like, it feels— we are disrespectful.

Yeah, I do. And I think it's a good discussion with this guy.

Number 3.

So Jackson Smith-Njigba was unbelievable last year. 17.7 fantasy points per game. Insane. Super Bowl champ. 1,793 receiving yards.

Led the league.

35% target share. That's insane. But we have talked at length like everything went right for JSN last year. He was not the same level of total volume as the other top tier type of guys. He was just exceptionally, exceptionally efficient with his work. I guess the question being is, you know, everybody, I mean, CeeDee had a 17+ point year, right? And it was a special year. Amon-Ra had one, right? 2 years ago, he somehow finished at 3rd still because of course, but he was at 17. So you do have special years. Double-digit touchdowns for JSN, 1,700 yards, 15 a catch. That was way higher than we'd seen before. Catch rate is 73%. I think it's a very fair discussion, the JSN versus Amon-Ra question.

I do too. And I wouldn't have any issue with taking Amon-Ra over JSN. I think the The hope is that because JSN is so young, he's 24 years old, he's still getting better. There's no one else really to throw the ball to for this team. However, this is a team that wants to play great defense and they can. They want to run the ball, spend a first round pick on a running back. And, you know, so it's like, how does this team win? Does this team put up 30 points as often as the Lions? No. And so, I mean, we're splitting hairs, but I think that We've seen enough years in a row of 110 receptions for, you know, and double-digit touchdowns from Amon-Ra. JSN, we've got one and it was better. But yeah, that it's, it's an interesting debate there.

They're both there. They're the same as the Lions. They're favored to win for, or they're favored in 14 of 17 weeks. Look at the red zone for JSN target-wise. He didn't dominate his you know, compatriots on the offense. He had 15 targets in the red zone. Barnard, 13. Cooper Kupp, 12. Now Rashid Shaheed gets an offseason to establish in this offense. You get back Torrey Horton. You didn't have him before. I wouldn't, I wouldn't be just surprised to see JSN's target share come down a little bit.

Yeah. He arguing against JSN feels—

I mean, I don't want to draft him and be happy.

That's I think that's where, where I'm at, but there's just, there's two other guys I would take in front of him.

36%.

Yeah. That's a—

Taking the over or the under on that one?

I will go under.

Yeah.

You got to take the under there.

56% of the wide receiver targets on that offense. But he's great. Draft him. He's awesome.

Number 2.

Jamar Chase comes in at 2.

Really?

But Jason and Mike both have him at 1. So figure that out.

This is a points versus ranking situation where you, so you have Puka.

The difference in points.

Yes. The point total of the three of us combined has Puka higher because you have Puka higher than Ja'Marr in a greater gap than Mike and I do.

Yeah. I just, and we can talk about both of them. I'll hit the button.

Number one.

We'll talk about Ja'Marr and Puka in the same, in the same conversation because both are awesome. I mean, statistically last year, both guys missed a game. Puka was at 19.4 fantasy points a game and Chase was at 15.7. Chase's season before was at 20. Both of these guys are going to be pushing those numbers every single year. I just, I just like Puka more because I think I like the volume more. But how, I mean, to me, Puka is going to be, Like we were talking about breaking fantasy with Jameer Gibbs. It looks like Gibbs is just set up to have an incredible year. That is Puka for me. I just think that I trust McVay to get him the ball a ton. I don't, I think Higgins is probably greater than Adams right now in the career, but splitting hairs. You guys both have Ja'Marr Chase ahead.

I don't care.

Yeah. I mean, I don't, we don't care either. Both guys are awesome.

We're not doing the debate. So very good.

Puka.

You guys like him? Okay, that's cool.

I don't care. I mean, I don't, I don't understand.

If I was on the clock and I had to choose, the reason I would choose Chase over Puka is simply because of the offensive and defensive environments. I think that the ceiling case for the Bengals and Burrow when he is healthy is higher than the ceiling case for the Rams, especially assuming Aaron Donald is added to this team and their defense is one of the best in the league and maybe they can win at the end of games where they don't need to throw the ball that much.

But, and I mean, you could argue maybe Puka does something dumb legally.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Do you want to lose the risk? I mean, these guys are literally capable of pushing 200 targets. I think this year.

Yeah.

They're capable of pushing 200 targets. You have the MVP of football at quarterback for the Rams and you have a quarter— they were a good defense last year. And so my counterpoint to that is McVay just doesn't let up on other opposing teams. They like burning people to the ground.

No, I'm with that. I think I am in agreement of Jason's case of the more likely ceiling outcome and projection for me is, is Ja'Marr. But You want to take—

I would take both of them if you get the chance.

Yeah, we're— I can't even argue this.

No, I mean, they're both machines. I mean, all these guys are. I think if you end up with Puka, Jamar, JSN, or Gibbs, or sorry, or Amon-Ra, I think that is— I think that's the actual tear break to me. And no disrespect to CeeDee Lamb. That's true. CeeDee Lamb is awesome, but I think because CeeDee Lamb has been, I mean, he's been 8 and 18 for whatever you're missing games. I know, I know, I know. But those other guys have been at 15 plus fantasy points in the last 3 years. And those guys, you know, the other guys haven't. Jefferson, London, those guys. So it's fun. I mean, I think we all have a few names in the wide receiver category that I think are really sneaky. Maybe outside the top 20. I know you and I were talking Carnell Tate this morning.

Yeah, that was the name I was going to bring up is, is if you want a guy that's going to surprise and come from much lower to be a top 10 wide receiver, you're talking about a rookie superstar. And that's, you know, what they drafted him to be. We'll see on the field if Cam Ward can support that.

It's been a good camp according to reports.

Yeah. I mean, the connection there, he's been the closest clear number one and I think he's mispriced.

Christian Watson.

Yeah, I think Watson, Lad McConkie, Ibuka, and who else am I thinking about jumping up into that? A Burden. I think those are special players that are outside the top 10 that could get up in there for sure. Let's— you up for a little mailbag, Mike?

Sure.

Mailbag. Mailbag!

Woo-hoo!

If you have a question, go to the website, thefantasyfootballers.com, click the submit a question button or dial our voicemail hotline 302464-TFFB. We love helping you out. We'll answer a couple before we shut down today. Mack in Nashville has a good one here. My question is simple. How come there's not enough hype around Jadarion Price? First round draft pick, Super Bowl winners, day one starter, going low in redrafts. Why is there such a difference between ADP of Love and Price?

It's a great question. I think that the biggest reason is the worry of passing role. He had no production profile in college of work in the receiving game. If he doesn't have that in the NFL, it would be very difficult to be great for fantasy. But everything you laid out is great. You're a first-round talent, or at least a first-round draft pick on a team that lost both of their starting running backs from last year with a good offensive line and good offense.

He's on his way up ADP-wise. So if you're drafting right now, enjoy your 6th round running back pick. As once preseason games are going on, like week, let's say preseason game week 2, if Jajarian Price goes out and takes the first snap, he'll jump at least to the 5th, probably the back of the 4th.

I love the fact that, I mean, almost every highlight I see is receiving work. Every, I mean, his head coach came out and said he's like a wide receiver and that nobody can cover him. And the highlights are downfield catches for Jahdarian Price.

He is, he is someone that could get on the Abdullah Express this preseason. If he has one highlight reel, one runaway touchdown run, he's going to skyrocket.

If you like Jahdarian Price, you, I would hope he does nothing in this preseason. Yeah.

If you're a believer. Yeah, hope he stays low.

Bella says dynasty win now team, would you rather have Rashee Rice or Garrett Wilson and Tyson?

Garrett Wilson and Tyson.

Like, I mean, if you said Rashee Rice or Garrett Wilson in a dynasty, if you said Rashee Rice or Jordan Tyson in a dynasty, I would take—

Let's win now.

Yeah.

No, I'd rather win now with Garrett Wilson. I'd rather win now with— because it's close enough in a dynasty.

To where it's not only, it's never only win now. It's, I'm trying to win now. You can still win now with those other guys.

Man, if you could, if you could pull that, that seems wild to be able to bail out of Rice for those two guys.

All right. That is going to wrap it up for today's episode of the show. The giveaway still going on, footclangiveaway.com. If you want a Bijan Robinson signed jersey, head over there. And of course, the draft kit, ultimatedraftkit.com. We will be back. We've got more rankings episodes, running backs, another mock draft this week, 10 tips and tricks to win your league also.

Catch you later.

Goodbye.

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter. At the FF Ballers.