Transcript of Breakout Picks + Injury Anger, Mike Returns! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/17

Alright, alright, alright. It's almost that time of year. The time when I set the foundation for supreme and total dominance at my fantasy football draft. How can I be so confident? Because I use the Ultimate Draft Kit from The Fantasy Footballers. Man, it updates all offseason, so I never worry about using old busted information. Consistency charts, auction values, full projections. Oh baby, this thing's got it all. You want to keep it 100 for your draft? Head to ultimatedraftkit.com to get your copy today.

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Chase Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

Welcome in. Monday, August 17th, the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Jason Moore is here. I'm Andy Holloway. And guess what? What? He's back.

The Mucus King returns.

Mike, the Fantasy Hitman, returns to the studio.

No bear extraordinaire in my chair.

No, we have the full crew back and it is a huge week. Breakouts, busts, values, sleepers, 10 tips and tricks episode, mock draft mayhem, and too many injuries to talk about.

Yeah.

I'm, I'm so, this was like, listen, this was a, this is a regular week in season amount of injuries to our guys.

Every year we, I've lived in Arizona my whole life and every year the summer surprises me fresh. Sure. And how, and how much of an inferno it is, how hot it is, how horrible it is. I, every year I'm like, oh my gosh.

Yeah.

And the same thing happens with injuries in fantasy football because we have an offseason of anticipation and excitement and joy. And the worst part is we have like done work to try to decide on how something's going to happen. And we never get to see for some players.

It's unbelievable. We have a board that has our My Guys or maybe our MVPs or, you know, we've got breakouts today. And it's like we've got all these players we're looking for and waiting. And then all of a sudden behind the scenes, we're excited to talk to you about some— ah, my groin. Yeah, my offensive lineman, my toe. I don't have a knee anymore. This, this game is brutal. I don't know if you guys know this. Football is a rough and tumble physical game.

But we must go on without knowing how some of these situations will turn out. And this is why, like, we've had a hard time. People have been asking us for our My Guy picks and we kind of have to thread the needle a little bit.

On the timeline.

On the timeline. Like I, I'll say this now, like I really wanted to make Alec Pierce my guy for most of the offseason. Yeah, you did. Can't really do that right now. I can't go say invest on the draft pick and start him. I don't know when he's going to play. Maybe it'll be week 1. I don't know. But those are coming next week as well. The my guy picks. Your drafts will get started. Ours is on Labor Day. So hopefully you've pushed yours back as far as you can because you, this is why we say draft as close to kickoff as possible.

I think that's important because Maybe people don't realize that kickoff is a week later this year than it usually is. So instead of doing it like if you're, if your league always does the second weekend in August, I guess you would be done. But you know, whatever. If you time it that way, you should push it later. And we always say every year, like push your draft as late as possible towards kickoff. I would recommend having it be after the third and final week of preseason because there's no, There's no fun in like you leave a draft, you're excited. And then before the first week, before the first fantasy point is scored, a guy you got in the second round is like done for the year in the week 3 of the preseason. That, that stinks. So push them late.

Yeah. Push them as far back as you can. The exception being if you can get people together for in-person drafting, do that whenever you can.

It's the best.

But what else do we got going on? We got one week left. In our UDK for Life giveaway, we're giving away the ultimate draft kit for the rest of your natural life. And we have added the bequeathing capabilities to this gift. If it's in writing. If you have an unnatural life, it's really up in the air. We won't really be able to apply anything.

It's a little, it's too great.

It's really just, it's like, it's just us giving something away. It's just us giving because I think right now everyone who's preparing for drafts, they're they're getting the Ultimate Draft Kit anyways. It's like, we're just also including the fact that you might get it forever for always. And maybe a signed Ja'Marr Chase jersey as well.

UltimateDraftKit.com. Winners will be selected during our live stream. Maybe next Monday.

It's for sure happening.

Yeah, it's definitely happening. But maybe for each individual, right?

Only maybe you will be the one to get it.

Not every person is going to get it. That would be a bad business move.

What it sounded like for a moment.

If we gave everybody a free UDK forever. But if you've purchased it already, if you're an Ultimate Foot Clan member, you're automatically entered to win. The community is over at jointhefoot.com. You can follow us on Instagram, instagram.com/fantasyfootballers. We had another Just the Tips episode hit YouTube, youtube.com/thefantasyfootballers this past weekend. Our quick question of the day is, comes in, what part of doing a fantasy football podcast is something that most people don't know about? Maybe it's a part of the daily, weekly process. What is something most people don't know about?

Let's see. I mean, there's definitely a few things. I guess the one I would say is what has really changed is the ebbs and flows of the calendar. Like when we weren't in it, fantasy football was still life. You know, I was all in.

When you weren't in—

when I was not— yeah, when we weren't doing the podcast, but like when you hit June, it was like you could really feel it inside of like, oh baby, football's coming back. Football really never leaves for us.

Oh, so you—

so that I find that, that I don't get the same—

Christmas forever for you type of thing.

Exactly.

Yeah.

I don't get the same juice ramp up inside. Of the natural time. I still—

you're always juiced.

I love football. Like, I— with the preseason on, it was, you know, it was— oh, thank goodness. Thank goodness this thing is back because it has been too long. I love football every day, but it's just that the natural ebbs and flows of timing that you, you know, your circadian rhythm of sports, we don't really have that.

Yeah. Like the like a decade ago, the idea of Hard Knocks coming out, it's like, oh yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, I got to throw that on. Now it's like, I would consume everything. I would love, I love watching clips. I don't know if I'm going to sit down because I know I'm going to be sitting down watching film all the time. But I think the thing people might not know about doing a fantasy football podcast is like, we do, we do the show for about an hour a day. How much goes into it prior to that? The amount of research and reading and Google Sheets and work behind the scenes. We try to come on here and sound as relatively dumb as we can, but you know, we are putting in the work.

You'd be shocked how much we prepare to sound this dumb.

Yeah. Yeah.

I always think it's funny. Like we do, we do so many shows over the course of the year and how many times we're like doing the dance of like, timing recordings so we don't miss news so that we can—

Yeah, yeah.

Like we're trying to thread the needle of like record where like the work we've done pretty well, I feel like, except for your like Courtland Sutton thing in the middle of the show.

Oh, that was the best. Actually, I think I made a show moment of the year.

But, but just like when we record and we like know stuff is going to happen, we try to dance the recording times around the news, which, which is kind of fun. But yeah. I, speaking of like Christmas year-round analogy, Mike, did you see that they're opening a coffee shop down the street?

Oh yeah.

That is from us.

Yes.

It's a Christmas.

From where we live.

It's a Christmas.

It's called Christmas Cafe.

It's called Christmas Cafe. It's Christmas themed and Christmas music and Christmas. 365.

365.

What do you think of that? Is that going to ruin the magic or is that amazing?

My initial thought is very optimistic.

It is. I can't wait. If you're telling me at any point in the year. I could just check out the Christmas Cafe.

Just that AC better be—

oh, it's got to be frigid. It's got to be frigid.

Oh, that's a good point.

If it's not like kind of snowing in there, like a little bit, I can't wear snuggly hoodie. That's not Christmas.

And pants. And then that's not going to work.

I can walk there from my house. I can't wait.

It's that close to you.

Yeah. I'm very hopeful. I think they're optimistic.

I'm optimistic.

Like you're pro Christmas Cafe.

I think That might be too much, but I'm excited.

One way to find out.

You're willing to find out.

We'll see if they're open a year and a half from now. People will decide.

Yeah. Let's jump into the news.

News and notes from around the league.

This is a—

Oh man, the people hate the news today.

This time of year is just all—

I was going to say this is a breakout show, but the news is going to feel like a breakdown show.

We are the messenger, not the— Well, we didn't make it happen.

The first, the first piece of news, like Mike, you weren't in here, but we came on and got to talk about the preseason game Cardinals-Raiders and Jeremiah Love and how good he looked. I mean, it was ridiculous how obvious it was that Jeremiah Love will be a dominator at the NFL.

It was almost like they could have known that before they drafted him number 3 overall in the NFL draft.

Well, he ended up to be sure though receiving 14 carries for some reason and the 14th carry resulted in a hip drop, ankle sprain. Looks like a high ankle sprain.

They just weren't sure, you know, that's their 13th carry. We got to get— let's see what happens next.

They're still hopeful that he will be ready for Week 1 against the Chargers.

That terminology means it's high ankle. You usually miss 3 weeks, come back.

And then you lose production.

Oftentimes you lose production, peak production for a couple of weeks. Obviously, if they are bringing him back off of an injury and his first time back is week 1, they are not going to take this young future centerpiece of their team and say, here's 25 touches in your first week back from injury.

It sucks so much. I mean, and Connor isn't even back to 11 on 11, which means there's a really good chance Tyler Allgeier is like the starting full-time running back for the Cardinals in week 1. Oh, by the way, their other top 4 picks are also hurt. Yeah, they lost their guard for the year, their second round pick. Carson Beck is hurt.

They lost their DT in the fourth round.

Yeah.

So there's no, they don't have a draft this year.

That's cool, man.

Breece Hall suffered a strained groin at practice.

This one is, I mean, I don't know on the groins how often it's due to physical contact. Or not, but this was, you know, this was just on his own. He's running a route, catches a ball, no defender, and pulls it and goes down.

So butterfly stretch.

Thank you, Mike, is what I've been trying to tell everyone.

You are the leader of the charge.

Butterflystretch.com. Jason Moore's physical therapist platform.

There should not be groin injuries, guys. Butterfly stretch.

How are there so many groin injuries?

Makes no sense.

Flap, flap.

All right. Let's hypothesize here. Christian McCaffrey has now missed one full week of practice. Originally it was revealed it was due to quote tightness. Perhaps the tightness of the wallets of the 49ers.

Genuine, genuine question because Mike, you have a much better memory than anybody alive.

Okay.

This was going on. It was either last year or the prior year. It was one of the last 2 years where he's going to be fine. But that was 2 years ago. That was 2 years ago.

Yeah.

Okay. And it kept seeming like, yeah, totally going to be fine. Nothing to see here. And so then 2 years ago, it wasn't— there was something to see there and it was very, very bad. I'm okay.

It did time up.

Nothing to see here.

It timed up with Bijan and Gibbs getting money.

Yeah. There's some— the bushes are whispering.

I think the bushes are just hopeful, man.

Yeah, I do too.

Josh Downs exited with another injury. Hard fall on his back. Tried to walk it off, was in pain and had to leave for a few snaps. Don't know the severity. Alec Pierce not expected to practice this week.

Go draft Ashton Dulin.

Yeah, there's like no wideouts right now in Indianapolis.

The good news is if, you know, unlike when Mike Williams would have those terrible tumbles to the ground and injure himself, which is what Josh Downs did. Not a lot of weight on him fell on him.

That's true. Lightest feather.

By himself.

I'm going to hit the button for this one, but Saints head coach Kellen Moore said the team is quote, still in collection mode regarding Jordan Tyson's hamstring.

Leave the red light on me.

I mean, this is, this is really sucks.

Let's really not good.

The range of outcomes here on this injury for those that don't know, Jordan Tyson, top 10 draft pick, from ASU, multiple hamstring injuries while at ASU, had a hamstring injury in the draft process, was just getting some of the best publicity possible with some of these, you know, routes he was running in practice.

He looked amazing.

I mean, and this is, this is why he was the number one scouted wide receiver for us. We watched how twitchy he was at ASU. It was amazing. But this hamstring is now genuinely threatening potentially his entire season. I want people to understand surgery is a potential outcome of the hamstring injury to Jordan Tyson. It doesn't mean it is the outcome. But when you have to say you're still in collection mode, you don't get to, oh, we hope he's back soon. Remember, pay attention to bad news, not good news.

You're seeking doctors' opinions because you don't know.

You don't like the first few opinions.

Do not usually. I'm just putting this out there. When you see, oh, guy has a hamstring injury, hamstring problem. They don't usually go seek like, no, oh no, what do I do? It's a hamstring issue. It's like rest it for a couple of weeks.

You get a great price on a car. You don't go to 5 other dealerships.

No, this is, this is really bad. And so as of this moment, I am expecting him to miss the beginning of the season. That's not based on like, no, I think for sure he will, but it's not based on absolute knowledge. That's what I'm saying is just my draft strategy. I am approaching it like I'm not going to have him at the beginning of the season if I'm going to make that selection.

Do these guys ever— this is a, you know, it's kind of funny, but it's a genuine question. When they have an injury like this and they go to the first doc and the doc's like, oh, surgery. What? No, no, no. I'm saying like everything. You'll be okay. It's a strain. You know, we're just a couple of weeks. Are they, is, are they still like, we need to make sure?

No, no, no, never. No, no. If they get good news on the first one, they don't go to a follow-up doctor.

Human nature. Yeah. George Kittle, very confident he won't start the season on the PUP list, has a chance to play Week 1.

What he means by that is he knows he's not going to miss the first 4 games, in which case he will not be starting on the PUP. That's kind of how it was laid out. He's hopeful he's there for Week 1, but he is very confident they won't place him on the guaranteed to miss a month worth of games. So that to me says if you're drafting George Kittle, which I don't blame you.

Oh, it's easy.

Grab another tight end. Are you going to say Tondreus?

Yes, I am.

See, we had this question.

I 100%. I would draft if I'm taking Kittle, if I'm accepting the risk and they talked about because they're the Australia game, like they'll know he won't make the trip essentially. So you'll have one.

Can I make a counter argument for that?

Sure.

The counter argument isn't that Tondreus can't perform well. Kittle, like in a very binary Kittle out, Tondreus in. I think that works out. The problem that I have with that strategy is that there could be a middle period of time where it's limited snaps for Kittle, therefore limited snaps for Tondjous. And because of the players that I like at the back of the draft, and Isaiah Likely is an option, right? I'd rather have somebody that I might, I might have two good players, right?

If you get Dalton Kincaid late, Isaiah Likely late, Dallas Goedert late, all of a sudden come week 10, for Kittle's back and rocking and you still have someone that with value.

I don't mind that at all. I'm saying like you have a Jawan Johnson.

I know I can tempt you with Jawan Johnson.

Yeah.

You're taking him over Tondjous, aren't you? Jordan Tyson's hamstring?

The— Yeah, probably. Don't you? Yeah, I would.

I do love Jawan Johnson.

But my point is like, if you know Kittle is out, like Tondjous is a free square. In your draft. Like some other people might take Isaiah Likely in round 10 or something like that. If you, if you want to punt all the way to the end, Tondjus will be waiting for you. And if Kittle is out, this team with the dot, dot, dot. Exactly. It's like, okay, well, if, if everything works out, it's great. It's brand new Mike Evans. It's brand new second round rookie Stripling. And Tondjus produces when George Kittle is out. And he's already familiar. I think Tondjus I would be a very strong start.

That's fine. And I would say draft strategy-wise, if you have an IR spot, you don't need to use your draft. Just draft Kittle. No one is going to go and draft on just a different Kittle. Unless they're just—

it would be very vindictive if somebody did it.

Yeah, but I would just wait till the draft is over. Throw Kittle on your IR when that happens before week 1. Yeah, there you go.

There's a compromise. I like Tucker Kraft said the team will probably keep him on a snap count until halfway through the season. He was out there practicing for the first time.

Then there was like a quote about the wolves.

Yeah, slap him on the butt, send him to the wolves after the snap count. Yeah, I don't like that.

It's going to be like the gray.

I've been out with limited snaps.

He can. He absolutely can. He was dominant last year. I have personally been out in the 6th round on a player that I think gets off to a slow start. The fact that he is literally saying I'll probably be limited the first half of the year. Not that he can't just take one pass. You know, he doesn't have to be out there for, for every snap. But I will counter that by saying like, look at Dalton Kincaid last year, the best yards per route run of all tight ends in the league. He just didn't play enough snaps to be very, very valuable. And I don't know if I'm willing to wait half a year for Kraft to you know, to be that. That's me personally.

Kyle Manungai left practice early with an apparent right knee injury, believed to be fine after testing, but, uh, it's not been a good offseason for Manungai's health. DJ Moore, it looked like a high ankle sprain was heading his way, but according to Joe Brady, he's good to go. So that's nice to hear. And then this one, I am the, uh, you saw the DJ Moore play, the, um, wide open, completely wide open.

And people were, oh man.

Wait, you're talking about the one where he catches the ball wide open and he calls the defender to him?

Yeah, I'm just saying like he's wide open so he gets a button and people are like, yeah, I told you, DJ Moore. It's like, you might be right about DJ Moore, but this is not the play that proves your thesis.

All right, guys, I don't know. You tell me whether you want the button on this one, but Emeka Egbuka underwent more testing and a specialist confirmed it was a toe sprain. He's stable. What I don't like is that They asked head coach Todd Bowles about his availability for Week 1, and he could not confirm right now that Emeka Egbuka will be back there for Week 1, although they are optimistic.

Turf toe can linger. Turf toe can really impact players. It's always— it's silly and stupid because it's a sprain, Jason. Yeah.

They're not—

no, I know.

I know.

It's not turf toe yet.

Right.

But if it comes out soon—

If it happens on grass, I don't think you can get to it.

Well, it's turf toe. It has to be the big toe, right?

Yeah.

Yeah.

So we don't know which of the little piggies it is.

Not yet.

Did we say we're going to remove the ring toe?

We said we could. I don't think we have to.

In honor of Jaden Daniels, though?

Oh, nice.

Oh, no, that's— you got to get the pinky for that one.

I mean, you just think you got to respect 5.

Najee Harris is green.

I own the number 5, man. He's got rag grass. I don't remember the time he was green. Of this. Was this on the show yet?

No, not on the show. This weekend it came out that Jayden Daniels' legal team told LSU that they can't—

Is that his mom?

Sounds like it. It's his biggest fan for sure. They told LSU that they can't use his name and image likeness, that type of stuff, because they let another quarterback wear number 5.

How to get everyone to turn on you immediately. Yeah, I think over stupid bullcrap.

Yeah, there's got to be something.

What are you doing?

I want to see. I genuinely want to see.

What are you doing?

With all the bad pub, this would be the silliest thing. Does his ADP move? Does it move down just like a couple spots because people are like, I don't want to draft him?

It won't go there, but you definitely have people who don't like him.

What do these teams do?

Like this, I blame Shadur. Yes.

You can't, do you know how numbers work? There's only so many numbers, right? A jersey fits all the double-digit numbers. If you just because you threw a touchdown pass or I know, I know, I know he won a Heisman. I know.

But like he wasn't even there. He didn't win a national title.

And I think Burrow's is. Yes, Burrow is out.

But Burrow won a national title. He went undefeated. His numbers were better. This is for LSU.

Yeah. And they had already promised this recruit, which you should want your team to do well. They promised to recruit this number and the recruit didn't want to give it up. I'm not saying that you don't retire anybody's number ever. It's just. It's a slippery slope of like how everybody's going to feel like they had a good career.

And if you're Jane Daniels, how are you not like calling them up? Be like, dude, make the number 5 proud.

This is Michael Irving. Michael Irving was like 88.

Are you saying Irving?

No, Michael Irving. Have you not heard Michael Irving?

Michael Irving.

Don't.

Oh, he's got me Bucky Irving.

Yeah, you just did it. Irving. All right.

You poisoned me.

You got to get everyone to turn the show off.

It was with an I, but it was also with a G. Yeah. Get the— it wasn't just— no, I wasn't doing a magic trick. Johnson thing. This was I with a G, my bad.

Yeah.

However, I with an N. I know.

Okay.

I'm saying, I'm just, I wasn't, I wasn't all the way to E and G. Anyways, he comes out and he's like, he was 88. His number should be retired. He's the best. Instead, he creates this.

Oh, it's the, it's so smart.

Incredible legacy for 88 with the Cowboys and then Desmond Bryant and then CeeDee Lamb. This is like, welcome to the club of greats.

Well, and he talks about, he's like, you know what they do? They talk about it when, when Dez Bryant has a great play. Oh, shades of the great Michael Irving.

Stop it. No, I will walk off of this set.

Dude, honor.

Did you hear his Charlie Kolar crap he was doing?

Kolar.

Kolar and Irving.

This is, is this how you felt when we were doing the, what was the stupid nickname?

Darnell Anderson.

Yeah. Now I'm with you.

Yeah.

Years later, I'm with you. That's a slippery slope.

That was the best nickname ever.

My goodness. There you go. Najee Harris visiting with the Giants. I don't think we need to talk much about it until he signs there.

Do you think maybe not at all because Tyron Tracy whiffed so hard on the block? I would tell Tracy the same to not come back to work right into the blue tent.

All right. We'll take a break. We'll, we'll get into breakouts. Let's do it.

Breakouts.

Joe Montana.

Montana.

All right. We have all of our consensus breakout picks inside of the Ultimate Draft Kit. This is a great show opportunity for us to talk about individual breakout picks that we are convicted about that we have faith in that we believe could help your team at a discount in fantasy drafts. Since we just talked about them multiple times, might as well. I guess I'll start it off. My breakout pick is Isaiah Likely.

Okay.

Isaiah Likely.

I can see why you wouldn't draft Jake Tonjes.

Yeah, there you go. I mean, you're going to get a 10th, 11th, 12th round value on Isaiah Likely. He's one of the highest paid tight ends per year on average. And I think we're, I think we're suffering from unmet, unfulfilled promises with Isaiah Likely in days gone by. The truth of the matter is, is he's one of the most gifted athletic tight ends. They went out and spent the money to bring him into New York. And while I have my concerns about this offense and Matt Nagy and the, you know, the offense clicking and Dart behind center, I think likely is one of the most obvious, clear, like discounts and values in fantasy football. We've seen great moments from him. We've seen him dominate end zone threat and every single bit of news about this team and what they're saying is he's going, he's been the number one target without neighbors on the field. And I think the capability is, is there. I think Likely is the most obvious late round pick that's going to, I believe, be an every week easy start. You know, when John Harbaugh was talking about his confidence on Isaiah Likely, they asked him specifically about high volume in this offense.

And he said, look, the numbers that you're talking about, the stats that you're talking about, that wasn't part of the thing in Baltimore because of the supporting cast. He said it's going to be a big year. And I know he said positive things about Likely before, but the truth of the matter was he had to share a lot of opportunities with Mark Andrews and the rest of this offense. To me, Likely is going to be a breakout sans injury in year one in New York. It's been the theme of spring and summer. I'm excited about it. And we've seen a lot of tight ends be the late bloomer type of situations where, you know, you had guys like Greg Olsen not really blossom until he switched teams going to Carolina. You saw Darren Waller, his first fantasy season was at 27 years old. Kelsey at 27 years old. You didn't get Njoku delivering big performances until his 7th season. So right place, right time to me. It's a home run. I was— the reason he's on this show is because he just narrowly missed being a My Guy for me. So that's the level of conviction I have around Isaiah Likely.

The drumbeat for him, I think it's been there. It hasn't been loud in your face like some of the other players that are just really getting hyped.

I mean, Jake Ferguson's going ahead of him, Mike.

No, the ADP is fine. I'm saying I like it. I think of a late-round tight end that could really make a jump. A team that, you know, unless Malik Nabers is ready to go 100% week 1, you don't know who the top target earner on the team is going to be. Could easily be Isaiah Likely. And I would say that underneath, there really has been buzz about him. It's just not loud, you know, including the— we, Jason and I interviewed Dart. Isaiah Likely was kind of the only player he talked about when we asked him about targets. And then there's been little blurbs here and there that I'm surprised haven't elevated his ADP. So he's sitting at a point where I think he is a very low risk, high upside guy. I don't know if I'm convinced it will happen, but in this, in the market, in range of outcomes, there is definitely one where Isaiah likely ends up as the guy who jumps into the top 5.

What about the fact that Matt Nagy, while we hate him most places, he does involve tight ends more than we usually like.

Sure.

He loves getting John O. Smith the ball.

Yeah. I mean, I just think that it's going to be a pretty— like Mike put it best, this is a chance for high upside late in your draft where it's not that we love Colston Loveland. I love Ty Warren. The Kraft thing is tough. I love him, but if he's limited snaps, that's tough. But like there's a world where like the gap between Isaiah Likely's performance and some of those guys may not be as big as you think, but you do have to sacrifice a lot to pull the trigger on Loveland early. So it's just something to think about. But there's, I mean, there's other late round tight end names we've brought up multiple times. Like Goddard is another one that I think will be involved. But I think Likely is a really interesting play in this new offense despite the fact, and I think that there's going to be some growing pains for Dart in this offense, but Likely is going to be You know, we saw it. We saw it last year with Theo Johnson that he built a rapport with his tight end right away. And it's interesting because Hayden Weeks pointed out like when he played, all the plays that likely came in on were passing downs.

He never put his hand in the dirt once. Theo Johnson was in there blocking for the blocking down. So I think he'll be a targeted receiver in this offense.

And you do it. It's just like a little bonus for him of like If Dart continues to get exploded on the field, waiting in the wings, guys, Jameis Winston.

Oh, I mean, the odds of seeing Jameis this year feel very pretty good.

And if Jameis comes in, I will not have any concerns for any of my pass catchers.

Yeah, we want them routes for the tight ends. I think you'll see a ton of them from likely. So that's my breakout pick. Jason, Mike, who wants to go next?

I'll jump in here. It is a player that I think the three of like, oh, this guy took the nation by storm last year. And I think as a show, all three of us, we were pretty hesitant because it's a seventh round rookie running back. Everyone's so excited.

Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill Korosky.

He became like the bit of the show. It was a good time.

This one's so interesting to me, Mike, because we are post-hype season of last year.

Yes.

And you keep coming. I feel like the way it's gone is this offseason you haven't been like trying to chase JCM. You just keep coming back to a place where you bring his name up.

I spent most of the offseason of like, hey, they added Rashad White. Could he end up being the guy? And, you know, just the way I'm reading the situation right now, it sounds like the team really just, they want it to be Bill Kroski merit. And the ADP is shocking to me. On Sleeper, Bill Kroski is going as the running back 37, which is in fact lower than he was last year around this time. Like that, that is absurd. The people are so mad at Bill.

He was, which what, Ekeler was around last year.

And Ekeler was a huge part of why I wasn't sure that Bill could take over as the 7th rounder. But then of course Ekeler goes down to the Achilles in week 2. But Bill, for what he was able to put on the field, he was very efficient. You know, over the first 5 games, you were seeing an average of 6.6 yards per carry. And then honestly, the whole team falls apart. You know, you have Jayden Daniels' injuries. Things are just— the other guys are getting injured all over the place, like Terry missing time. It just really didn't work out for Washington and Bill struggled mightily. But towards the end of the season, you know, the final 3 games, we had an 18 for 96 with a touchdown. It's against the Giants. That's not great. As in like people are beating up on the Giants, but he's taking what's there. The week 17 against Dallas, 11 for 105. He had, he has the juice on a high note and we knew he had the juice like his, his highlights are like this is, he's one of the few running backs that at any point could rip off the 40-yard touchdown.

He has that ability.

He's going lower than last year.

It's, it's, it's insane. And Washington, Washington should be a, at least middle, you know, to an upper echelon offense. I still believe in Jayden Daniels despite his thinking he owns the number 5. And this is, this is an ambiguous situation.

You know what he doesn't own?

Oh, you see?

Yeah.

We're watching you. Think you're going to get 55, but it's like Chicago, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Washington. These are the, the, the more potent potential offenses that is there. Their running backs are going outside of the top 24. These are the players that can change the balance. Yeah, we want, I want to hit my fourth rounder and all this stuff. I want to find the late round running back that can come in here and really stabilize my team, if not take it to the next level. They've been expressing, we need him to get better with the ball out of his hands and talk of like, we don't want to have pigeonholed running backs. We don't want to— when Bill's out there, the defense knows, oh, they're going to run it. And when White is out there, oh, they're going to throw. This is something that Washington does not want to happen, which sounds like if Bill takes the job, that's potentially a 3-down running back. And like, so that's, that's very, very exciting for going as the running back 37. Krod is gone. So he doesn't have, you know, that type of competition at the goal line.

Seems like he should get that no matter what. So I'm very interested in his ADP and I'm very interested in what Bill could turn into.

The Krod point is really interesting because he was very effective active down there and got a lot of opportunities.

Super active. To be fair, that is what Andy said.

I didn't realize.

It didn't need to be repeated.

I didn't realize.

You don't need to beat that.

I didn't realize how bad what he said was. I just knew he misspoke and I had to call him out on it. And then I realized that's very bad.

Leave this in, but you got to beat him.

That's very, very bad. I take 20%.

Vowels are very important.

I take 20%.

You're telling me I said it like that?

Yes, you did.

You did.

Yes.

You guys are nodding like you're right.

We all heard it.

You're nodding like you're telling the truth.

Mm-hmm.

That's why.

I don't believe you.

Yeah. No, I, that's it.

There's no way to know.

There's no way. We'll never be able to tell if you had actually said it that way first or not.

All I know is that whatever way Jason said it was worse.

Yes. Yes, I will agree with that because I hit it a little harder. Oh my goodness.

You tripped into your own trap.

I tripped into your trap.

Yeah, well, is this show still on the air? Do we have to mark this episode differently?

We have the technology to push through.

Oh my goodness.

Back to Bill. I'm 12 years of shows. I'm sorry, everybody.

Back to Bill. I just have a question.

Okay.

If this is the only— I know you didn't bring this up and this was basically you've made all the arguments for why Bill's a good breakout pick. He can do it. This office is blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

Yeah.

I actually think the only reason that you like him is because your argument for why Bucky Irving was a breakout was just simply because you were betting against Rashad White. You're like, he's not good.

If you really was the crux of the entire argument.

Is that what's happening here? It's just like you just have to compete with Rashad White who's not that good.

It, I mean, look, if you want 3.5 yards, Rashad White's your dude. If you want 4.5 yards, he's not.

I'm not even listening to the show anymore.

What?

Oh man. All right, Jason, it's time to talk about your breakout. This is one that I think, I think you might stand alone in this studio on because—

I want it known that I do. I want it known that I do stand alone on this. And I'm looking at you, Mike. I stand alone. You are the lowest. You have him at running back 26.

I'm very out.

Yeah, you're out shooketh. So what an honest guy Mike is. I am going—

this is calling balls and strikes, guys.

I'm going against the grain. It feels contrarian, which is a little weird, but my breakout pick— MVP-wise? Well, a little bit, a little bit in both directions. I'll explain. My breakout is Travion Henderson. An absolute dynamo of a running back, an explosive, you know, anytime he touches the ball, he can house it. He can get a touchdown. He had a very weird rookie year, right? The first 2 months of the season, he was not used. He was basically like, he didn't get the, he didn't get 9 touches a game. He was kind of a gadgety guy, the rookie being brought along slowly, despite the fact that he was almost a first round pick. He was like, super high second round pick. The draft capital was there. The explosiveness, we still saw it in those, in those, those plays, but it took Ramondre going down to an injury before he really got to explode. However, once he was a part of the offense, it was a clear working strategy. He was dominant. He was very, very good. In fact, during that time from week 9 on, he was the running back 9 averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game.

When it happened, he was a monster.

Yeah. His rookie season, he—

not to be confused with Raw Monster.

Correct.

Correct. Not to be confused with Raw Monster. Yeah. Yeah. You can hit it.

Yeah.

Thank you.

People don't really like that one.

But here's the thing.

He don't like nothing.

He was good. I know I've heard— I know I've heard Andy say, oh, I don't like how he looked between the tackles or whatever. But the truth is he was a very good running back. He was extremely efficient. Of 55 qualifying running backs with 80 or more rushing attempts, he was number 1 in yards before contact, 6 in yards per carry, 12th in explosive rush rate at 5.6. That was identical to Bijan Robinson. He had 4 touchdown runs of 50 or more yards last year, most in the NFL. So this is a guy you want the ball in his hands and they gave him work inside the 10. He, you know, Ramondre had 16 10-zone rush attempts. Trayveon had 21. How good was his rookie year? He had 1,100 total yards and 10 rushing touchdowns or 10 total touchdowns. He did that on only 215 touches. He's a good running back. He's a good player. He's explosive. The argument against him is is Ramondre Stevenson. Like, that is the whole argument against him is that he's—

and it should be an easy argument to overcome, but I fear that it has become—

and totally. And that's why he's not being drafted in the first or second round. He was a rookie running back who averaged over 5 yards per carry, had a 50-plus percent rush success, and 10 touchdowns since the year 2000, which is amazingly over a quarter of a century ago.

I don't believe you.

The— oh, I know. I felt bad when I realized that. The only guys who have done that in their rookie season is Clinton Portis, Zeke Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, and Achan, and then now Travion Henderson. You say that Henderson is being drafted super high like he's broken out, but he's, he's actually, his ADP is so far beyond what those other guys' year 2 were. Those other guys were all first round picks or Achan was a second round pick. Pick the following year. We're talking the 411, almost a 5th round pick here for Travion Henderson. I realize he's in a timeshare, but, but, but Jason, you know, you're doing it to yourself. The timeshare is a big deal. Except the fact that like those other guys that I just mentioned, Kamara, he was with Mark Ingram who had 12 rushing touchdowns and was the running back 6 his rookie year. Achan was with Mostert who had— he was the running back too with like 20 touchdowns. Yeah, it's the point that I am saying.

Sorry, let me give you your exclamation point. Go ahead.

Is that this is the type of player that you have to take a shot on to truly be a breakout candidate.

That's true.

You have to call your shot that the backfield just won't stay the same. And that's what we have seen over and over. Nick Chubb was an explosive guy, but he was bare, you know, it was like Carlos Hyde. That was a big problem.

Then they traded him away.

Kamara with Ingram, James Cook with Devin Singletary. Sounds silly afterwards, but in that year, Gibbs and Monty, it was like when there is the more explosive special player with high draft capital, they're going to end up getting the work. And honestly, we saw it last year. This is the thing that I think what happened in the playoffs when they played these unfathomably great defenses. I mean, their run of playoff to get to the Super Bowl, they played Super D, Super D, Super D. And Ramondre was the guy on the field. I get that. But when Ramondre came back from injury during Trevo's rookie season, from weeks 12 on, they gave Henderson 13.3 rushing attempts per game and they gave Ramondre 7.8. Like the switch happened. You get to the playoffs. You go, oh, we got to do the trusted. They played defense. They didn't score a lot of points. It was a great strategy. I think as a full season goes on, your most explosive player is going to get the ball more than, than Ramondre. And if that does happen, and that has to happen to pay off at 4.11, but if Travion Henderson ends up at the end of the year with the 60-40 opportunity count over Ramondre.

He's going to be a great pick, a top back. So I'm calling him a breakout player now because next year, if he broke out, you just go, oh, I mean, that was a great pick. There's only one of two directions it goes. I don't think there's a world where he is exactly what you're drafting him as right now.

Okay.

Personally.

Yeah, I think it's a tough situation to see what happened in his rookie year because you had His 3 first, his first 3 productive games were when Ramondre missed. And then Ramondre was limited in practices and stuff coming back. And they obviously were kind of, they showed what they wanted to do when they got to the playoffs, in my opinion. So to me, there's, there is a world where he's the exact same thing. And I worry about his pass protection. There's nothing about him to me that says 3-down back. Just me personally, from what I saw on the field. I think he's a compliment back. I think he's an explosive guy, but the reports in the offseason have been really negative about his pass protection.

And they have.

And the, and Ramondre is the thing that nobody wants to say out loud is that he's a really good running back. We were willing to say it when Trevo didn't exist when he got a contract extension and we were excited about him then. Now he just represents a thorn in the side of this other sexier guy that we like. But the team said, in my opinion, they said in the playoffs, that Ramondre is their number one running back.

I think, I think Ramondre is a very good running back. I'm not afraid to say that. This isn't like Rashad White where I'm going, oh, all he's got to do is beat Ramondre and that's so easy. My point is more David Montgomery was a good running back. Mark Ingram was a good running back. These other guys in these really good offenses' timeshares are good running backs. The more explosive, the better running back, can be great for fantasy.

And I have to be the better running back though.

Yeah, they do have to be.

That's the rough.

I don't know that he has to be better. He just, he has to duplicate being that explosive and efficient and hitting that many big plays.

Yeah. And the thing is, is how do you look at the Patriots offense? Like I know Andy, you've been very, very bullish on Drake May being legit, being a a top quarterback in the league from what he did last year. He was an MVP candidate, got to the Super Bowl. You are a believer that it's real. If this offense ends up as one of those like top 5 or 6 offenses in the league, I don't think it takes a complete bell cow total volume going to Henderson to be really successful. However, there is the, there is the world where I mean, Ramondre has missed 10 games in the last 3 years. He's not been a pillar of health. When he went down last year, you say you don't have evidence of him being able to be a bell cow. Well, in those 4 games, he was—

I didn't say that.

You said—

I didn't say anything about him having— I said I don't see him as a 3-down back in the NFL, which is why his— I didn't say I didn't have evidence of it. I said I don't see that being his prototypical role. What you're going to see on a regular basis. Anybody can be forced into that if their leader, if the lead back gets hurt.

Yeah, you, you, I mean, you basically said, I didn't say the word evidence. You said we haven't had anything to make us believe. I, I, let's go to the tape. We got to be, we, because you said I can't quote you correctly. I said we haven't seen anything to make us believe is a 3-down back. But in those 4 games, in those 4 games, he was on pace for 3.

I'm allowed to have an opinion that's different than you. But you're also allowed to tell you that I don't think that the that he's a 3-down back in the NFL and his draft pick says that.

You're also allowed to like what you say, stand by what you say and not change it 10 minutes later.

I didn't change it. I didn't say—

The nice thing is we have tape.

I didn't say there's no evidence. I said I don't see him as a 3-down back and the team doesn't. That's why they don't play him on 3rd down very often sometimes because Ramondre can pass protect. You don't like it that I have a different opinion and that's okay.

It has nothing to do with I love the young different opinion.

Who's the number one running back on the team? Ramondre Stevenson. Okay.

What is number one running back mean? Carries?

It means the guy that they look to win. Yeah. I mean, I think carries.

I think at the end of the year, Henderson has more carries.

Mike Vrabel is a big part of the equation. They're a successful team that went to the Super Bowl with this recipe. Ramondre Stevenson is a Vrabel type guy. He does the dirty work. They love him. They throw him the football. He was great in the passing game.

I like Ramondre, but we've got to have a bet here. And the bet that I think you'll easily— the bet that I think you will easily take and easily win—

I'm sorry, I shared a different opinion.

That is not what I'm saying.

My God. I'm sorry.

You are— you are wrong.

We will check the tape.

Yeah, we will. The bet that I think you will definitely take is when they are both healthy, like if they're both playing in the game, total carries on the season. Like carries per game, I think Henderson has more than Ramondre, which would make him—

I mean, I'm fine with that. I don't really like the situation right now, but I'll give you that. Waterbed injuries notwithstanding, of course.

That's what I said. When they're both playing and games play, I think Henderson leads that team in rushing attempts.

You're allowed to pick. You can have him as a breakout. I do. I'm sorry for filling in the other side.

Thanks.

Mike is also on my side, just quietly on the side that he doesn't have a contract.

He's playing both sides. He's playing both. He's hoping on one and believing on the other.

We'll take a break and talk mailbag.

Mailbag. Mailbag.

Ooh, I wasn't sure I was going to be able to do it.

Yeah, you were voiceless. I'm glad you didn't come in on Friday. That would have been a mucus fest. Oh, brother.

Did you hear Matt's mailbag?

No.

You didn't hear what happened?

Oh, it was really exactly what you would expect.

Do we have a clip?

No, we don't.

That's bad. The situation that happened, Mike, just to give you the quick TL;DR, is that Mike, Jason Cho, I gave Jason the power to choose who does the mailbag. Okay. He chose Matt. When Matt was given the chance to do the mailbag, he was dead silent. He didn't say anything. He was trying to set these guys up to help him. And then he just was quiet to try to sell them down the river. So then I said, I'm not hitting the drop again. You're doing the music and the drop.

And he did an effort at that.

He did try to do that.

Well, I'll have to check it out.

All right. If you have a question for the show, we're here to help. Go to the website, thefantasyfootballers.com. Click the submit a question button. Or dial our voicemail hotline 302464-TFFB. YouTube question from Josh. Who is usually the first to lock in all 3 of their My Guys?

Is there an answer for that? Man, I don't think there is one. I feel like I usually lock early. I think you are the one that locks someone in the earliest. Like you usually have an offseason like this year. Alec Pierce from the get-go was going to be until recently when he hasn't been able to get healthy. I think most years, Mike Evans for you one year was super early, like all offseason you were locked. Jameson Williams was like an all— you always have one guy that you're like very early and never sway on. I don't, I don't know that.

I feel like you might have had yours down before anybody this year.

Yeah, I would say most years there isn't really an answer to this that's universal.

It's just, it's not great to lock. I mean, we give that advice to our listeners like, You want to stay water. So like that was actually one of the things I think we probably brought up in the, you know, maybe not in 10 things to remember, but basically like I want to wait a while because you can feel great about a situation and personnel, the draft, all that stuff happens.

I want to remember don't trade George Pickens, my guys, to Jason.

Yeah. Because he was yours for a long time.

Yeah. Because that dude was on the board forever.

Eric in Iowa City, Iowa, when considering strength of schedule, why do you put so much emphasis on weeks 1 through 6 rather than the entire season?

Well, number one, you want hot starts in fantasy football. It's silly, but this is the human part of the game, the emotion of waiting so long to see a player. And if someone has two awesome weeks, then it, hey, this is probably going to be a successful season. If they have two terrible weeks, they're a bust and you need to, there's panic in the streets. Also with the changeover of just defense, this is all we have to go on right now. I can't project the entire season of how a defense is going to go. Some of the team that stinks against tight ends, they will reveal themselves to us over the course of the season. It may not be the same people.

Yeah, I would also suggest look at the end of the year roster and then look at your draft. And more than likely it will be surprising like, oh wow, I only drafted these 3 guys. You have a lot of changes. The season is long. Trades, you know, swaps on the waiver wire. Getting off to a hot start will allow you to make trades high to grab people who get off to a slow start and do better there. So certainly getting off to a good beginning to the season is very valuable in fantasy. Debra in Jonesboro, Tennessee.

When is it a bad idea to reach for a player in your draft?

Top 5 or would you go 6 rounds? I feel like after 5, right around after that, everyone has their warts. So, you know, if there's a player in the— whose ADP say is in the 7th, but I'm in the 5th and it's like, I got a bad feeling in my gut that someone's going to take him. I'll just take that player then. But right around the 5th, 6th round is where it starts to break open.

The top of drafts in ADP are pretty good. Like, yeah, statistically, historically, especially in the last 5 years, people get things right more than they don't. Obviously, when you get to the later rounds, it's a scattershot. So when you, when you reach too far in those early rounds, you're usually going to be making a mistake. And the thing is, is In those early rounds, ADP is more established to where it's not just that you're making a mistake and grabbing a worse player over a better. Even if you reach and that guy is correct, you're not getting the value you could get by getting him the next round or, you know, obviously if he falls all the way to his ADP, you're just not getting the most value you can. Jeff in Madison, Wisconsin.

I haven't heard much talk about the dreaded RB dead zone. Where would you say the dead zone falls this year, Mike?

So we did just briefly start talking about it.

I had a whole thing that released on Saturday about the running back dead zone on Just the Tips. You can go listen to it from this last weekend, but it's back. You know, the thing that we have seen, and we're going to be talking about this on Wednesday as well, is that running backs this year, because of the health of the last couple of years, have been pushed up a little bit. More than it was a couple of years ago.

It's always there. It just kind of shifts where it is inside the draft.

We'll talk about it in detail here in a couple of days.

All right. I was going to say, I think it probably starts. And look, I love Skadaboo, but I think right around there is where you start. You have guys where you're either concerned about the team or you're concerned about the timeshare.

All right, we have sleepers on tomorrow's episode. Wednesday, we'll cover the 10 tips and tricks. We'll have busts and values and a mayhem mock draft with Mike back in the building.

Yeah. He was just afraid of the mayhem. Oh, I was. He was terrified. I was very afraid. He was very afraid.

All right, don't forget the UDK for life giveaway.

Pick it up. Take my Theraflu away from me.

Yeah. The drafts are here. Ultimate draft kit. Www.fantaskit.com.

We'll talk to you tomorrow. Goodbye.

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @TheFFBallers.