Transcript of Bust & Value Picks for 2026! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/20

Foot Clan, before we start today's show, it is important to let you know the Megalobolt is back and it's back in a big way. Over 20,000 players last year. We're going to break a record this year. Go to Megalobolt.com and you can be a part of the biggest fantasy football league in existence. Have a chance to not only win a spot in the listener league for next year, but you'll also have a chance to win an ultimate Foot Clan subscription for life.

For life.

And you compete and the pride is really, I think, the key.

It's so mega.

It's so mega. Head over there right now. We're going to start the show. Megalobull.com.

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

Welcome in. Thursday, August 20th, the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

Oh boy.

Another day, another groin. That's my motto. Another day. Another groin.

Dude, I was going to make a joke.

This show is rated R this week.

We made it to tomorrow, but I forgot.

You forgot? You thought we did?

No, we had a pretty big one.

Yeah.

Just one day. We just want one day without a groin injury.

Tyler Warren this time?

Yeah, Tyler Warren wasted.

What would you tell him?

I would tell him to stretch it out like a butterfly would do. I've got a picture.

The wings, man.

Honestly, if you go to groinindex.com, you can see the technique. I am personally presenting it. So groinindex.com.

You were briefly going to— There it is.

Oh, look at that. We are on the show.

Nice location for you.

Fly like a butterfly.

But you were going to be a PT for a while, right?

I thought about it for a long while.

Focusing on groins.

Solely groin, a groin PT.

But another day, another injury, not the only one. We'll talk about the news. We got leader of the pack today. We got Bust picks and value picks on the show today. So if this thing goes over, it goes over. I don't care.

We'll just, we got, oh, dad's getting crazy.

We got fantasy football teams. We've got to prepare Thursday on a Thursday. I was out late. Why not? You know, just keep it going. But you heard at the top, the Megalobowl, go compete right now. Megalobowl.com if you want to participate there. And don't forget, you do. We still have our UDK for Life giveaway going on. We're going to do a live stream next Monday, answer tons of questions. Drafts are coming up. I'm going to do, I'm going to do it, Mike. I'm going to do it. We're live on the show. I'm going to do something that I just brought up as an idea to you a minute ago.

Do you know?

No, I don't know. Now listen, our My Guys episode is next week.

Oh, okay.

I'm going to just do the halfway.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Our My Guys episode is next week. We have had some people like, oh, I'm drafting this weekend. I don't have your My Guys yet. And I'm like, okay, the episode's next week. The season starts a week later this year. We have to thread the needle. We don't want all of our 9 guys going down with groin injuries.

Do you see how many people are getting hurt?

But some of you are drafting this weekend and I know you'd like to know them. And here's what I'm going to do for you. Our show's next week. But I am going to go into our Ultimate Draft Kit and I'm going to mark—

Personally, he's going to do it.

I'm going to mark— we always mark the My Guys once we have the show. I'm going to mark one My Guy per person early for this weekend. So if you have the Ultimate Draft Kit, I'm going to ask you two things. One, go in, find the My Guys. They'll be marked by, you know, we put them in the system. Two, let's keep it secret. Keep— don't tell anybody. Don't blow it. No spoilers. I feel like I might get more spoilers by asking.

Yeah, well, I mean, you'll get them.

The Foot Clan.

Someone's going to LaShawn McCoy this.

They're integrious people. That's why I'm only giving one away. I could go, I could put them all 9 in there, but I'm not crazy. But I'll do that if you're in the Ultimate Draft Kit, if you have it.

Josh says, well, there goes my side business.

Oh, you guys, you were selling the data early?

If you knew how many people have emailed me asking for the My Guys early, you would be shocked. How much money have you made?

I can't say.

Check his live Venmo feed.

But shout out to next week's spitballers.

Yeah, but, but yeah, if you, if you, we've had the question being asked because the timing, people don't necessarily know that the season starts a week later. And anyways, I'll reveal, we'll put 3 of them in there early and then we'll do the show next week. But we're doing the giveaway. We have a live stream coming up, ultimatedraftkit.com. Get prepared. All of our rankings, right? Our projections, our tier-based rankings, 100+ player profile videos, a brand new— if you're just coming back to the show, because I know a lot of comments lately, they're like, oh, your back wall is different and stuff like that. If you're just coming back to the show, we added a fully featured mock draft tool that will be going— not— it's on the mobile apps. It will be on web today.

Nice.

It will be on the web today. So lots going on. UltimateDraftKit.com. Let's get the show started.

Leader of the Pack presented by PetSmart.

All right, we are looking once again at a complicated situation depth chart-wise on a certain team. We've covered a couple of teams over the last couple weeks. Today we're looking to crown a leader of the pack. And I'm not, I'm not going to say that, you know, some, some of these teams, maybe it's a stroll through the meadow and the flowers are blooming and it's this year we're going through the swamps here.

Sometimes it's like it's a pack of wolves. Sometimes it's maybe like some coyotes or hyenas.

All right.

I'm terrified of hyenas.

Why in this case it is, uh, it's terrified of the Dolphins receivers. It's the Dolphins wide receivers.

Brooks calls it a pack of Dolphins.

Brooks.

A pack of dolphins.

It's a pod.

You idiot.

Oh man, get by.

Yo, Brooks, all the money in the world.

Brooks on a podcast, he doesn't know what a pod is.

Can't buy an education. Give me a break.

So rich.

Learn about sea life.

Well, 60% of the Dolphins salary this year is dedicated to players not on the team. Did you know that? That would be Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, two wideouts that are not on the team, but will be receiving a ton of money. And counting against the cap, incredibly, $28 million Tyreek will count against the cap, $23 million that Waddle will.

But has to be a record where there is an absence.

There is an opportunity, right?

That is correct.

The most vacated target share and air yard share in the NFL and a wide receiver room entirely undrafted in fantasy. Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell, Jalen Tolbert.

Greg Dolcich.

These are the players that my, not a my guy, but my, this is like your dynasty team. Excuse me. I have Cyrus Allen. You know, these are the Malik Willis has to throw the ball to these players. And he will.

By rule, by rule, the Dolphins have to play 17 games this year. And so they will actually have offensive yardage. And I know it can't all be Devon Achan. So yeah, I mean, I did have Kyle look up once upon a time because I was like, this team will be playing 60 minutes every single week and no one is drafted. Is there a situation in the past where you see a bunch of wide receivers where we're just not sure? We think it's a bad offense. No one is drafted. And you know, what's the lowest they finish? Unfortunately, it did seem like historically there are, there are plenty of examples where it turned out no one was worth drafting. But the question is, Who is, if someone's worth drafting here, who would it be? And I know my answer clearly.

Was anybody worth drafting for the Raiders last year? I mean, it was a similar situation.

Brock Bell.

Not at wide receiver. No, no, wide receiver. Mike, what are you doing here?

Well, we have a tight end listed in this group here.

No, I read the wide receivers.

And I mentioned Greg Dulcet.

Oh, okay. Well, he doesn't count.

He, we're looking at plays tight end. Just making sure you know.

What are you talking about?

Greg Dulcich, he plays tight end.

Yeah.

Yeah.

We're talking about the wide receivers for the Dolphins. What is it? Okay. Who's the winner for you?

For me, it's Caleb Douglas. And it's funny because recently I've made a lot of comments. We all have about the fact that when you draft and I don't mean rookie year playing them, I'm just saying at our fantasy football draft. When you draft wide receivers who weren't drafted in the first round, it is universally usually a bad pick. The reason why is because even day 2 picks average sub-50% snaps. And that's really genuinely what it comes down to is, are you on the field week 1? If you're not on the field week 1, it's a bad draft pick. You don't need to hold on to a rookie wide receiver who might develop later in the year. You don't need that the first few weeks. But the reason why Caleb Douglas might break the mold, I mean, we always talk about this, right? Even if it's an 80%, 80% of the time they bust, that would mean 20% of the time it works out. And the reason that I think Caleb Douglas is maybe able to break the mold is because he will be on the field from week 1. I expect him to be playing pretty much 100% of the wide receiver snaps.

He played every snap with Malik Willis.

The preseason.

In preseason.

You've seen enough Malik Washington to—

To know that he's just not that good.

Not good enough to produce.

Exactly. He's fine. He's a good NFL wide receiver. He should be on an NFL team. But for fantasy football, he is not good enough to go out there and average 70 yards a game and get a ton of touchdowns. Like, I just— I think he's irrelevant for fantasy football personally. So I want to take the shot of the unknown of Caleb Douglas. A guy, if he's, he was a 3rd round pick, 75th overall. He's also been making a lot of noise, like consistently the entire offseason. They've been saying Caleb Douglas has looked really good.

I'm with you. I think we've seen enough Malik Washington to feel a little bit capped on what the production can be. I like Malik Willis. I think he's a good quarterback. I think we've really heard no negative news about Malik Willis. During this offseason. Can't say the same for Tua Tagovailoa or Kyler Murray. Like Malik has had some highlight plays in training camp and I think Caleb Douglas is the highest upside opportunity and probably one where we have been here before. We completely as fantasy players dismissed Jalen Waddle. Now Waddle was a higher draft capital player. So it still happened though. People just didn't believe that the team can have a productive player. And to broaden the conversation, I know we like Greg Dulcich to be a target in the offense, but Greg Dulcich is not the— he's not Brock Bowers. He's not Trey McBride. He's not a player that, you know, like is going to have 100 receptions on this team. Bowers and McBride can do that. Dulcich can be a higher value sleeper tight end. But at the end of the day, I think you can look at this team and say, wow, if they out perform what our expectations are on offense, who would be the beneficiary?

To me, I like Caleb Douglas.

Yeah, he's— his production profile was pretty good. His physical attributes are great. I mean, this is a player who's 6'4", £206, ran a 4.39 40, which is 91st percentile for weight-adjusted speed score. He's been making plays. I mean, to be honest, I don't think it's going to be anybody. Yeah, I think it will be no one in the last round. You know, you're taking wild shots and I talked about this on the tips and tricks episode yesterday. Be willing to move on right off the bat. If he's out there for 62% of the snaps week one, get rid of him. But I do think there's a chance he's out there for 100% of wide receiver snaps from the get-go.

I'm on the Malik Washington side. He's been the name that has popped up the most to me while I've been following the beat reporters. And it's been pretty positive news. Like, generally speaking, I do agree, Jay, of the, like, the process of, okay, he's a— Malik was a 6th round pick. We're going into year 3.

He's been— Malik to Malik things going on this year then.

Hey, it doesn't hurt. No, it doesn't hurt. We can Malik wrote down my name, but it's like— and Washington is, you know, as a rookie, 220 yards, and last year, 317 yards. He was, I mean, buried on a depth chart with two superstars, two superstars. So I don't completely blame him for not being able to break into that rotation at all. I mean, you know, we had last year, or I'm sorry, 3 years ago, Parker Washington, 132 yards. Parker Washington, year two, 390 yards. And now Parker Washington's the hotness. Like, it's not impossible. It's not probable at all. But I'll put my bet on the third year veteran.

It was a tough decision for me between those two. And I will say the underdog in this situation, unfortunately, you know, the guy with maybe the most talent.

Oh yeah. And we're just with Chris Bell.

Chris Bell is a— he was a fringe first round pick, tore his ACL. Drops to the third round. But from a talent perspective, you know, right now their coaches say he's a long way away.

That would be next year in a dynasty league. You know, after the draft, I had Chris Bell ranked ahead of Caleb Douglas because long term, I think he is the more talented player coming out of college. In redrafts, when you're at your draft right now, Chris Bell's— yeah, that's an— that's what I'm going to need right now. And I would say that he—

it tolls for thee.

He's completely undraftable.

That was Leader of the Pack presented by PetSmart. Visit your local PetSmart store or go to PetSmart.com today. PetSmart, anything for pets.

News and notes from around the league.

Well, the Colts tight end Tyler Warren suffered a groin injury. We talked about it earlier. Yeah, that is the— I mean, not all groins are equal.

No. No, they're not. This one's—

I mean, those are big boys.

Right now they're saying there's no—

just shut it down, please.

Yeah, right now they're saying there's no worries for week 1 of the regular season.

And we had some weird reporting because it was like adductor 2 to 3 weeks and then it circled back to 1 week with a groin. Those are connected probably. I don't know. Uh, Makai Linton.

Adductor is connected to the abductor.

Right.

I don't know. There's a machine. That does that thing.

Finally, good news in the news section.

Yeah, Makai Lemon is returning to practice on Thursday.

All right.

So don't pull a Jordan Tyson. He's coming back from a hamstring. Stay on the field.

Yeah, that's tough always.

I got a snake, man. The snake himself.

I don't know how I feel about that anymore. I just don't. It's just not. Okay. Okay. Makai Lemon's press conference lives forever. I don't have any other big time news. Was there anything that like, I will say this, the commentary right now, let's talk Giants running back room for a second.

Yeah.

We brought up the Najee Harris signing, which, you know, was easier for me to dismiss without seeing any film of Najee Harris recovering from this injury. He looked good in the limited amount of film we had and Mike brought up individual drills.

Yeah. His cuts were nice.

And Mike brought up, The missed block by Tyron Tracy Jr. was significant. And then more news around New York came out that like it shed a different light on Tyron Tracy when he missed a block, allowed their future, basically their franchise, Jackson Dart get blown up. And Najee, you mentioned being a very good pass blocker. But the whole point of this that I want to bring up that we didn't discuss was, and I know you adjusted him down, but the possibility that really Cam Skattebo doesn't maybe play as much as we think he will for the first half of this year in terms of volume.

Yeah. And I would say these are not— I'm not setting off panic alarms by any stretch, but you got to pay attention. This is a new variable. We know that it's being reported by Jordan Renan that it's a veteran minimum deal. There's no guarantees. So this could be Najee's a camp body. It could be. And then he gets cut and then Okay, but there, I mean, that's all, there's smoke when you have a guy coming off an injury. You have a player with one of the biggest pass block whiffs we have witnessed in the preseason.

Oh man, it was bad.

It's just, it's something to pay attention to.

All right, that'll do it for news. We will take a break and we've got some buzz.

Oh, Kyle's saying Najee's workout was set up even before the Tracy non-block.

Yeah, I mean, that lends itself even more towards like just what involvement will Skadaboo have, Tracy, Singletary, and depth. I mean, you just, you need it.

I want as an absolute lover of Cam Skadaboo's play style, film, history, everything. I want to be so in like coming into this offseason. I was like, he's probably going to be my guy. And I just have bad vibes there. I don't love I'm not quick to pull the trigger right now. I think it might be a slow start to the season.

Well, we're going to continue the conversation here because we get to talk about this team again in a moment.

My last point on it is, again, I'm just trying to, you know, think out loud and not— I don't want to be an alarmist or panic, but it's like we've seen this before. We've seen day 3 running backs come in and have success in fantasy football. We love these players. And then someone new comes in and they're gone. And it like, it doesn't make sense. What, you know, we just had, we had the Damian Pierce year where he comes in. He's pretty solid for fantasy football. And you think, well, he's got to be the guy moving to next year. Absolutely not. They just got rid of him.

Well, it doesn't help that there's a change in—

That's what I'm saying. Like you have a, like Scott is not only a change in— Not only a change in— Harbaugh's guy.

Like there's a turd at offensive coordinator. Yeah. So, but we can just move on because we're going to talk about this team.

Okay.

All right. We have individual picks for both the bust and value segments today. So lots to talk about, to debate, to discuss, and to, well, in the bust case, be fearful of. Let's get into it.

Bus.

Bus.

All right. Well, these guys are not guaranteed to fail. We have consensus busts in the Ultimate Draft Kit, but we are kind of looking at situations we think are high risk. Maybe look really good from the outside, but kind of buyer beware situations. And unfortunately, I know that this name—

Oh man. It is not agreed upon here.

No, no, we have a difference of opinion and it's not, it's not really difference of opinion at all about the player, the talent, the ability of them. It is a concern with the, I mean, you just, you love Cam Skatteboo, but you have concerns about the, you know, situation, the vibes.

Yeah, the vibes aren't great in New York and that makes sense with Matt Nagy there.

Yeah. And so my, my bust pick, the one that I am not Like if I took this player in the draft, I know it's a good value and you can take the shot on the first couple of weeks. I don't think that's a problem. It's not like you're overpaying, but you might not get a starting quarterback out of it. My bust pick, unfortunately, regrettably, is Jackson Dart, Jason's 5th overall quarterback in 4-point passing touchdowns. I know the people hate it. Well, the people want to see Jackson Dart and the New York Giants have success and With Harbaugh's arrival, I thought it was on the way. When Greg Roman and Matt Nagy pulled up in the car behind in the Uber, someone need an offense to fix in the Uber pool.

When Cliff Kingsbury was the offensive coordinator, if you don't remember, Cliff Kingsbury basically, the report was Cliff Kingsbury signing to be the offensive coordinator for the New York Giants. It was like, oh baby. And then it was like, no, just kidding.

Nagy.

One of my— so I don't like the vibes, but that's like, you know, it's Matt Nagy's history, Greg Roman, and the changing office. I don't like that. But here's what I do not believe is compatible for Jackson Dart. I do not believe you can simultaneously run the way Jason wants him to run and play enough football to make you happy in fantasy. He had 10 games last year. He went to the medical tent in 5 of those 10 games. He has already gone to the medical tent in 1 game. You cannot be in a position where at any moment your starting quarterback runs with such reckless abandon, finishes runs with reckless abandon, and then in press conferences tells them, that's just who I am. If you're not built like Cam Newton, I have concerns.

Maybe he's got like a cappuccino machine in there or something.

Uh, in, in, he loves the blue tape.

In the medical tape. He needs his little pick-me-up.

I think you would either see a fundamental change in the amount that he runs, which is very, very possible, I think, with these old heads as quarter— as head coach and offensive coordinator. I think you could see a change in offensive philosophy that is concerning and is going to require Dart to do some things we didn't get to see evidence of last year, which was be under center more often. Make the right read, don't run the football. And so I think there's a lot of excitement. I understand that he represents high rushing upside, but I do believe that he will be hurt if he does what he's been doing. And I think Harbaugh is the kind of guy that's going to rein that in a little bit for the sake of his team having a quarterback that is healthy. And, you know, it's a concern. If you look at last year, He was on fire to begin the season. First 7 starts, 23.3 fantasy points per game, 3.1 design runs per game. Let's go. Oh wait, you got concussed. You come back, you have another 5-game span. All of a sudden you got 1.4 design runs per game.

That's a big difference. You go down to 16.6 fantasy points. If I had to guess where he ends up this year, it's more in that range. It's 16 to 18 fantasy points a game. I don't think the upside is as high as Jason does because I think that there's something that's going to go wrong. And I won't get into just how horrible Matt Nagy is, but yes, I will. Brian Daboll, by the way, after he was fired, the offensive system changed. I love Brian Daboll. I think it's one of the reasons I've been in on the Titans making a progression forward. Brian Dable was the key to some of what Jackson Dart was having success with. Matt Nagy, man, he does not press the easy button in the modern NFL. Second lowest motion rate of any play caller. Third lowest play action drop back rate since 2021. So we're not going to pretend to run, right? Let's not do that. Let's not give an easy opportunity for your quarterback. Let's just do what no one else is doing anymore and put him in behind center. They ran a ton of no huddle last year. I think Dart was great with that.

Dart was, Dart's like metrics and stuff when they were going no huddle and hurrying up and, you know, playing some street ball. His numbers were elite.

He was pretty much one of the best in the league in no huddle and one of the worst in the league in not no huddle.

And I will say this, like, you're going to, here's the last piece of the puzzle.

We are not huddling.

The last piece of the puzzle is kind of wild, and I'm going to paint the picture for you. You're going to start with some matchups that are okay. They're favored in 3 of their first 6. They have the Rams in Week 2 in LA. That's a tough one. But you're— that's your acclimation to the new system. So how quickly does that happen? You go from Week 7 on. I don't know if there's a worse schedule. It's a gauntlet. You're in Houston. You're in Philadelphia. You're in Seattle, in Detroit.

Detroit's defense should be injured by that point in the year.

I mean, you are favored. They are favored in 2 of their final— what is that? The rest of the season, the final 10 games from— I said the first 6. So the final 11 games, they're favored in 2. They got to play Cleveland. They got to play Jacksonville. They got to play San Francisco. I don't know. I am concerned with the hype. I think it's gotten out of control because we want it to happen. There are players that we just want to work. I think Travion's a guy we want. We all want to work.

Yeah.

I don't know if there's a better person in the NFL than Travion Henderson. If you've listened to his interviews or a more dedicated player, just stand up guy. We want the faces of the NFL to be the faces of the NFL. And I just don't know if it's going to be easy.

The calling this a bust pick is very realistic, I think. I mean, the idea that Jackson— first of all, all the reports out of camp have been that the offense has sucked.

That's my point.

Everything has been like, they don't have it together. Even Matt Nagy came out and said like, Jackson Dart's so talented, but he's really struggling. It's like, well, it's your fault. But no, I have like no doubt that Jackson Dart can bust and be terrible this year. I'm really in on Jackson Dart because I think should it work, he is, you know, if he's in the 9th round where I've seen him in plenty of drafts, should it work, he's one of only 3 quarterbacks in the league that I think can easily rush for over 700 yards. He's on a 17-game pace of about 700 yards last year in his rookie season. It's him, Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson. That's it. You know, and if you look at—

finish your thought and then we have to hit the stupid breaking news.

Okay.

All right.

If you do look, I know it's like the injury risk is out there. And he's not built like Josh Allen. But you look at Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jackson Dart, and you got 6'4", 210 in Jayden Daniels, £210, 6'2", 205 in Lamar Jackson, 6'2", 223 for Jackson Dart. So I do think he can— everybody can get injured. Lamar's been injured. Daniels has been injured. I am in on taking this shot.

What was his height weight?

6'2", 223 for Jackson Dart. So this is not bad.

Did he seem that big?

He didn't seem that big. I mean, he didn't seem that big, but I don't know people's weight in person. I don't know. But I like the upside. I certainly could never— no one could argue that like he is as unguaranteed a success as possible.

I'm just afraid you can't draft him and start him and be guaranteed to have a starter and then you got to figure it out, which maybe that's worth it in the ninth.

In the ninth. I mean, I like him. At the end of the year, it's very easy that this could be like, oh yeah, he failed.

I won't hit the breaking news button, but I will tell you that Sam Laporta is now injured.

Jason, cover your ears.

No, that's my dude.

Sam Laporta is out with a hip injury.

My all-time favorite player.

Well, Geno.

Well, my second all-time favorite.

Dan Campbell says he's not sure if the injury will go into the regular season.

Man.

So Jameson Williams.

Not a groin. Jameson Williams, dude. Jameson Williams.

You guys, you guys don't. I know. Don't get me started on how much I wanted.

Yeah.

I'll let the people know he's not a my guy.

You're not. You didn't allow it.

I would never do double lion same exact my guy, for example.

Well, yours worked better.

Kind of. I mean, the first half of the season last year was so bad that most people like moved on, but he finished pretty darn good when Laporta went down. When Laporta went down, he was unbelievable. And if Laporta starts the season on the bench, this is an offense you want pieces of. I'm— I find myself way more like Andy this year on Jameson Williams. I want Jameson Williams on my team.

He finished as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver.

Oh yeah.

Also, and you're like, meh, meh, first half.

Yeah.

I mean, he finished in the top 10, man. If the first half sucked, that means that he's winning championships.

I mean, it's just like the truth series though.

It was the change of coaching.

Yeah.

I mean, it was when they did the offensive coordinator change and Laporta combined.

But I think if you were someone that had drafted him, I mean, up through week 8, you had what, 2 playable games? Sure.

So yeah, I just said that you definitely helped people win.

Yeah, they helped whoever's team they were on at the end of the year. Yes. That was like Chase Brown. Like you felt like you took a giant L on a my guy last year because it was for the first 6 weeks. It was like, oh man, what a loser. And then he was unbelievable and helped people win.

I call that a win.

I didn't realize that. I thought you moved off this bust pick. I did not know that you went forward with it.

No, no, no, no.

I very much— It's funny because make a trade on the show then.

We might.

I'm going to go make an offer. You go on. Share your bust.

Okay. So this bust pick was in there for your bust.

But go on.

This, this pick was in here for a couple of weeks now. And then we got news that I think made everybody think I was going to change my bust. I did. You did. Andy did. Then Kyle was giving me other options.

I was like, I wanted you to do it too.

Well, he just thought I would. And I was like, no, I'm. I don't want to change. I completely still believe this and I'll explain my rationale here. My bust pick this year is Travis Etienne Jr., running back for the New Orleans Saints.

The artist formerly known as Travis Etienne Jr.

If you are, you know, we know from the comments.

Oh my gosh, that's what I'm going to call him from now on. The artist formerly known as Travis Etienne. There you go. Full time.

That's fine. He wants to be Etienne. Yeah. So if you are coming back to fantasy football and you're like, why are you saying his name wrong? That's the French Creole pronunciation that he prefers. The commentators in the Hall of Fame game basically said, we're going to call him that this year. So as the season goes on, you'll hear Travis Achan Jr. It stinks only because there's an Achan. Like, if it was someone else that was unique, you'd be like, but anyways.

So let me read you a Slack channel message that we sent last night. I said, we were like, Mike's like, hey, are you still sticking with Travis Achan Jr. as your bust? And I said, I wonder if he'll change that. And then you got tagged and you said, yes, I am.

Well, I was saying yes to Mike's, the first question of, are you still sticking with him? Yes, I am. So I see how you see it both ways. But here's the thing about the artist formerly known as Travis Etienne. There are 3 reasons why I don't like him as a pick where he's going right now. One is the change in the offensive expectation, right? He was on the Jags last year, which, was a top offense and he's switching to the Saints, which hopefully can be a better offense, but they're obviously a much worse offense last year than, than they were. And as far as the offensive line, it's a downgrade on the offensive line. Second is the way he scored fantasy points last year. And then there are some specifics on the tips and tricks we brought up yesterday that you brought up, Mike, that really speak against Travis ETN Shane. ETN. This year. Yeah. Okay. So here's, here's the thing. The first point offers. Oh, you made me a live offer.

No, I don't worry about it. Do you're talking.

Okay. How he scored last year. He's not ever been a very efficient back. I don't think he's, he's been okay for fantasy. He scored a lot of touchdowns. But he hasn't really been a very efficient back and inside the red zone, he was downright horrific. Inside the 10-yard line and inside the 5-yard line last year, 10-zone attempts, which these are money in fantasy. He had 26 carries inside the 10. That turned into 4 touchdowns, a 15% rate. That is abysmal. He had 12 of those 26 inside the 5. 5, and those turned into 2 touchdowns. The only running backs last year that were worse in those metrics were weirdly Saquon Barkley and Woody Marks. He was not good. Where his touchdowns came from were receiving touchdowns. He had 6 receiving touchdowns and yet he only caught 36 passes. How rare is that? He, he, he joined 2014 Ahmad Bradshaw and 2018 Kareem Hunt as the only running backs over the last 25 years with 6 or more touchdowns on less than 40 receptions. 43% of his fantasy points came from those touchdowns. That is not repeatable. 5 of those receiving touchdowns were inside the red zone.

I mean, how rare is that? Well, he had zero receiving touchdowns inside the red zone for his entire career. So now you've got a guy who kind of was propped up from rare touchdowns that aren't very repeatable. Wasn't efficient on the ground. He's changing teams to a worse team. And my biggest argument against him for most of this offseason has been, I'm sorry, but Alvin Kamara is going to be involved.

But, but Jason, but Jason, he's—

Alvin Kamara is injured. Yeah, he is. At most, Alvin Kamara at this point in the timeline says he could be ready week 1. But let's say he misses the first 2 weeks of the season. Okay. He's not back till week 3. When he gets back, he will be eating into the pass catching work of Travis Achan Jr., which is where he made his fantasy points last year. Those first 2 weeks that he might be alone, you want to be on the road against the Detroit Lions who have, when they're healthy, one of the best run defenses in the league? Or do you want to be on the road against the Baltimore Ravens? Both games you are more than touchdown underdogs. That's not good for running.

Camara is going to be eating Jell-O at the retirement home in week 2.

Yeah, I mean, I'm just saying, by the time you get to any good schedule, so early underdogs, that was a tip and trick from Mike yesterday. You're an early underdog on a bad team, it doesn't usually work for fantasy. I think that how he scored fantasy points was not great. So there's no reason for him to be on your team.

I sent you a trade.

Well, I think he's going to be great. So we'll see if the value matches.

No, no, the rubber meets the road right here. Look, I think that you could, you can make, I think there, I don't think you can make an argument that anything you said was incorrect. I think the only argument that I have is the same sort of argument I feel towards Kenneth Walker. The market and the teams that I trust, the play caller that I love, they put their money where their mouth was. 4-year, $52 million deal. Ken Walker has a ton of crappy efficiency metrics in, in different areas. This dude dances behind the line of scrimmage and gets caught back there. I just love the fact that they decided to make him their franchise identity at running back. So I'm in on that.

I do love that. And I love Kellen Moore offenses, especially for quarterbacks and wide receivers. One of the weird things about Kellen Moore's offense though, they have routinely ranked among the bottom of running back target shares over the last 4 years, 26th, 26th, 20th, and 27th. So it's like it, and honestly, that's smart. That's wise. Throwing to a running back is less efficient than throwing to a wide receiver or a tight end, just statistically speaking. Have a fast pace of play. Like if I was an offensive coordinator, have a fast pace play, throw to your wide receivers as much as you can. That's how I'd play. And that's how Kellen Moore plays. But yeah, I do love the investment. And I will say there is another metric of a certain barometer of money given to running backs in the offseason where if you are over it, you usually work. And the artist formerly known as Travis Etienne is over that mark.

So Rumble Aya.

Yeah, you've got both sides of it. I'm more wary. And I will look at the trade-off.

It means that you're convicted about it if Kamara goes out and you still feel like, I mean, I got a trade offer from you yesterday. I thought good.

I don't remember.

Oh, you don't remember the offer?

Oh no, that was good. I tried. Why didn't you accept it? Wasn't that for, that was, that was for this dude.

Yeah, but it wasn't a good offer. I ran like 5 mock drafts, dude. The guy, you hate him. The guy. Okay. I hate him if I don't take your crappy offer. All right. Chuba Hubbard, Mike, that's your bust. Sure.

Oh my gosh.

Okay.

I'll just admit this was a crappy offer. He says I made a crappy offer. His offer was the 3-0-1 in our league for Travis Achan Jr. 3-0-1 in a 3-keeper league. That's basically the 6th rounder. A 6th rounder for— he's going in the 4th. So no, I will decline.

I have run a tremendous amount of— so Bashaw Tuten goes around. I mean, is Bashaw Tuten versus Travis Achan?

Bashaw Tuten will not be there at the 3-0-1.

Well, Jajarian Price will be.

No, he won't.

Oh, okay.

So I mean, I know what you're saying, but I know our league and how we, and how we, I mean, you know how we draft. Baysell, Tuten, and the running backs go up in our league of record.

I have taken, you love Achan. I've taken every opportunity that has ever been presented in front of me to either dump on or bet against Travis Achan Jr. to the point of just a truly horrific outcome last year. Good luck. If you recall, there were co-starters on the Jacksonville Jaguars last year and we were all taking sides and then they traded one of the guys to be a backup in Philadelphia.

I forgot.

And then it really worked out for, for Travis. But I'm with Andy on the volume. I think the volume will make him okay. And I like the Saints offense. So I don't think that he's a special player at the running back position, but I think he will end up being okay. My, my bust pick here currently running back 28 going in the 7th round. So this isn't like a huge investment, but I'm just putting, I'm putting the foot down and putting the flag in the ground. It's Chuba Hubbard. I want absolutely nothing to do with him like this. He is a full fade for me at this point with what's going on in Carolina. You know, recalling last year, weeks 1 through 4, he was getting an elite work percentage, he was at 29, the work percentage, which is, you know, targets and attempts. He was at 29%. 30% is elite. So like it was, the volume was completely there. In that time period, I will say he did not force a single missed tackle as a runner. So this is a guy that's just voluming his way to fantasy value. Then he loses his job to Rico Dowdle.

He had no runs of 15 or more yards last year. Like his efficiency metrics are, they're red. He had one total carry inside the 5 because they just, they didn't trust him. They wanted that job went to Rico Dowdle. And you know, we've also seen Jonathan Brooks. I struggle with Brooks's ADP, what is going on because he is right next to Chuba Hubbard in ADP. I've seen leagues where Brooks gets drafted in front of Hubbard, but it's just pointing out that like he, Chuba's at the tail end of the dead zone for running backs, which Jay, you've talked about. You're like, you're at the end, man. This is the deadest of the dead zone. I want nothing to do with that situation. And if you remember somehow the Panthers, despite being under .500, they were first place. So they get a first place schedule. Warren Sharp has them ranked as the 3rd hardest schedule for 2026. And to piggyback on my tip yesterday of teams that start as dogs, well, 3 of the first 4 games, they are underdogs. They are underdogs on the road against Atlanta. That's how down bad the Carolina Panthers are at this moment.

So people are drafting Chuba and I just want absolutely nothing to do with it.

Yeah, we had the Jonathan Brooks conversations earlier too, and we have all of our bus picks, our consensus bus picks in the UDK, ultimatedraftkit.com, if you want to get on in on that before your draft. We'll take a break and we'll come back with value picks. All right, value picks. I'm going to take a layup here.

I think genuinely all three of our value picks are fan-freaking-tastic. I think they're layups and they're mispriced players in fantasy football. I really do.

It's Chris Godwin. Chris Godwin for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Ibuka, whether he's there or not. I don't like that he's dealing with the toe injury. That's going to add to the equation in terms of like Chris Godwin is the exact kind of name that never moves up no matter how much you talk about him, has a history of productivity, will be sneaky good from a PPR perspective. I mean, we talk about Keenan Allen leading the Chargers in receptions at 34 years old last year. Chris Godwin has a connection with Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield is back and is healthy. You have a lot of question marks with Hurst, McMillan, Tez Johnson. None of those guys profiles high volume.

What's your face here, dude?

But, but Emeka Abukah being hurt doesn't really even bother me. I like Godwin.

Godwin on ESPN. He's in the 13th round, 13.04 in full PPR. What are we doing?

Yeah. To me, it's just a layup situation. He was not one of the names I mentioned in the 10 oldest players, right? I mean, you, you have a close, he feels older. He's 30 years old and yet he signed a 3-year extension last March. I mean, this team has him as part of the plans. You know, he dealt with injuries. Injuries are going to be a concern for players that get older and especially at wide receivers, but he's not in that group yet. When he came back, he had some high target finishes. To me, this is just like most of the time I say you want to take high upside shots at the back of your draft. This is one of those stabilizer. Players that I think you can start any week you need to, might start more often than you think, and has been a standout at OTAs. So there's really been no concerns around Godwin, but not enough publicity. So to me, my value pick is Chris Godwin.

I'm in. I think Chris Godwin is a solid pick for—

there's a—

I think he has a lot going for him. You can even say, uh, Ibuka is that he's the— we get to the end of the year, Ibuka is clearly the number one. Okay, fine. Like Baker Mayfield can give you enough production that you have two contributors in the receiving game. Like, and of the other players, yeah, but your, your chips have to go to Chris Godwin.

Godwin does not need Emeka Ibuka to be injured to be good. At all. He's been good with Mike Evans on the field and Mike Evans is gone. I mean, it's where he's going right now. Like, I totally understand when you're older, you don't have the upside of being like, oh, this guy could be a top 7 wide receiver in fantasy. But like, you need— he's— he could— here's what he could be. An absolute every single week.

Yes.

Must start wide receiver 2 type of player. He could— and that is so valuable in fantasy and to be basically a free square ADP-wise. I can't believe that ESPN ADP 13th round.

Yeah, I mean, I think it's just one of those like people are going to take Diggs ahead of him in drafts. People are going to take Keenan Allen ahead of him in some drafts. That's going to happen.

Yeah.

Because Chris Godwin is just quietly, quietly.

He was injured last year and I think that's a big part of it. People just think he's injured and they're tired of it.

But genuinely It is 2 years in a row that he played 7 and 9 games.

Camp reports have said not just that he's been good, but that like his explosion's back and he's just really explosive.

Even if you get half a year with Chris Godwin for that price, I don't care.

That's fine. My value is so weirdly underpriced. If I describe the player before telling you the player, it makes no sense. What if I had a 3rd-year quarterback who has literally scored the 4th most fantasy points through 2 years ever. Last year, he led the league in passing attempts. And this year, he's got all of his wide receivers back, including a high-drafted wide receiver too last year who's been making buzz. But then they trade for a star wide receiver to add to the core. And his first year was the quarterback 6, his second— I'm sorry, the quarterback 7. The second year, he was quarterback 6. And so this— now all of that coming together, He's being drafted at quarterback 15.

What?

Bo Nix. Bo Nix is—

Boom shakalaka!

I mean, why is he being drafted over double the amount of positions that he's ever finished? Like, he's never finished half as bad as quarterback 15. They add Jalen Waddle. They're on a good offense. But Jason! Yes?

He got hurt last year and their schedule—

And in the playoffs, yeah.

Their schedule's really crappy.

So a crappy schedule is absolutely true in the sense of difficulty, but it isn't necessarily a bad schedule if he's good.

He also sometimes seems drunk.

What?

He does. When he's outside the pocket, sometimes he seems like he's had a drink. He rolls out and he's like, I feel like sometimes he looks at the crowd and he's like, check this out.

I genuinely— Boom!

And then you're like, oh, not even close.

I genuinely think that thought that what you were saying was some interview thing. I'm like, I don't remember him seeing me throw.

No, no, him on the field.

That would be us during our—

So the opening schedule, the opening schedule, he's got to play the Chiefs. Great team. They're probably not favored. He's got to play the Jaguars. Great team. He's got to play the Rams. Great team. He's got to play the 49ers. Great team. He's got to play the Chargers. Great team. I get that those are teams—

He was not a my guy for me solely because of the first 6-game schedule. Yes, he's been on our board as a my guy. I'm so in on Bo Nix. And I didn't know some of those numbers you just shared, but the beginning of the season, for some reason, there's doubt about Denver in general. Right.

I get it because there were games last year. No, there were games last year where you're like, why is their offense so bad? There were, if you remember.

They played the Raiders and they scored 12 points or something silly.

Yeah. Didn't they lose to them in week 1 or something? Oh, the Patriots.

Well, what's the, what's the divisional odds too?

They are.

Third highest. So Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders.

My argument on these. Yeah.

Plus 160.

Excuse me.

I have to visit someone real quick.

Chiefs plus 160, Chargers plus 190, Broncos plus 225.

A lot of times when you are playing against another good team, if the Broncos are a very good team, if Bonix is a good quarterback, then you actually want games like the Chiefs, like the Chargers, like the Broncos, like the Niners. Those games could end up where the quarterbacks go tit for tat and it's over 50 points scored. Yes, they might be not favored in the game and you go, oh, the, you know, for the first 6 weeks, they're, they're underdogs. Being an underdog isn't always a problem, much more so for running backs, but for a quarterback where you've got to keep up great because they've got a great defense. So you want them to play against teams that are going to score a lot. So I think he's just right now, if you're in a, if you're in a super flex league, he is just so much.

How about you pass on Jackson Dart and take Bonix?

Sure.

I'd be happy to. If, if, if I'm in the often I am waiting for Dart in the 9th and someone takes him before me. Bonix is a great consolation prize. I have no problem with that.

Oh, this is breaking news. I had no clue you liked this dude, Mike, your value pick.

I love this player and people are coming back. And yet I think he remains an absolute value in drafts.

You are, in fact, the highest on this player.

You did it.

Hey, we found one. Hey, we did it.

I do like him.

I don't know how you were lowest on every other player in the NFL, but you're the highest on this guy in our rankings.

It is Mr. Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens, who—

Did he get the Mr. when he collected that check?

Yeah, I say we're going to start at the top. The dude is hashtag good. Baltimore thinks so to the tune of $104 million. Geron Teed. All right. Now that we got that out of the way, let's look at the career, the trajectory of his career. Fantasy finishes 30, 22, 7. His consistency ranking 29, 25, 16.

That one I care a lot more about.

His really target share. 24%, 25%, and then 28% of Baltimore's targets last year. We've— we talk about it all the time. Targets are the stickiest stat. Like touchdowns come and go. Targets are forever.

Forever.

And looking at the way that the draft is going, like everyone else with a target share of 27% or higher is being drafted as a top 12 wide receiver besides Garrett Wilson and Zay Flowers. Those are the only two guys not in the top 12 who last year had at least a 27% target share or higher. You have Lamar Jackson. Yes, it was a down year for him. I'm throwing that in the garbage. Lamar Jackson still remains an elite quarterback in the NFL, in my opinion. Since 2010, 30 wide receivers were drafted in the first round that saw 300 or more targets through the first 3 years. They averaged a touchdown every 18.3. So Flowers' touchdown expectation, he's more— he should be at 19 instead of 14. Like I'm saying, I think there is some touchdown regression that can happen for Lamar. It's not the same system. Like if you said, hey, positive regression.

Yeah.

Yes. In a positive direction. If everything were exactly the same, Maybe I'd have less hope for Zay Flowers pulling in 7 or more touchdowns on the season.

Are they going to be— are they long ones?

No, I'm— look, this is what I'm saying. If we don't know exactly what's going to— what will change, but we know there will be a big change. What won't is he's number 1 on the team and they're like the separation between him and the rest of everyone else on this squad as a skill position player. I think it is a massive, massive gap. I mean, we're talking about Jacoby Lane is the, like the hotness of like a fourth round rookie.

We know what Bateman is. So Bateman's not a threat to Flowers.

Right.

We know what Andrews is at this stage of his career. They don't have another up and coming tight end.

Correct.

That's actually a concern for the Baltimore, like, like if you go beyond Andrews, it's a bit of a concern.

Yeah. They do have, and they lost some offensive line stuff as well.

But like Jacoby Lane is the next, possible contributor in the passing game. And you can't imagine Jacoby Lane threatening a $104 million man.

No. Which says to me, he might be a 30% target share player this year. That's not out of like that. That's not a wild thing to project. I'm not going to go that high, but that would not be a shocking thing at the end of the year for what they invested in him and what the rest of the team is. Look, the books still love Ravens. They're favorites in each of their first 7 games. And yes, we do. I want, I want the Ravens to be favorites. I want them to know that they're going to go out and they're going to score a bunch of points. So they are, they're tied with the Bills for second in Super Bowl odds. The Ravens are a solid squad and it's just, it's Zay Flowers here. The targets are going to be there and Flowers is sitting in a range that is not with the top tier guys.

The Ravens are currently the number one team in terms of odds to win the AFC title.

There you go.

At +470.

Really? Oh, they, they passed the Bills?

Bills +510. Sometimes those numbers, Mike, when it's Super Bowl versus AFC title are somehow different, even though they're the same thing. Tomorrow we have a mock draft mayhem episode on the show. We're going to be talking through a lot of great stuff next week, including players were embarrassed to love. Mike is not embarrassed of Zay Flowers. He is proud of it. And then we'll get into some mailbag. We will do the My Guys next week. And like I said, I'm going to sneak 3 names into the UDK. Somebody over there remind me to do that right after the show so that you guys have a little teaser. Don't tell anybody about it. We got the show on Wednesday and don't forget about that. Oh, the Megaloball. Go get in there. Megaloball.com. The time is now. Drafts from September 4th through the 8th, the day before kickoff. A bunch of different times you can choose from. You'll get placed in a league. We have really refined the rules over the past few years. We've got double the amount of like admin commissioners this year to make sure that these leagues are run exceptionally well. And let me tell you, the amount of hours and hours and hours that go into making sure these drafts go off correctly, that the, that there aren't, you know, tanking or collusion or problems in these leagues.

And it's just a lot of work goes into them. They're very, very fun to play.

They're very fun. Everybody who's in them loves them and they play year after year after year. And I enjoy it. I enjoy meeting Foot Clan members in it.

Yeah. So go there right now, megaloball.com. We will say goodbye for today, but we'll say hello again tomorrow because we have another episode coming your way. Some mock draft mayhem. We'll talk to you then.

Goodbye.

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter. At the FF Ballers.