Transcript of Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House

Hey, WENBI and the Spurs are going to be in Austin next month, and I decided I wanted to see WENBI in Texas, and I have to go. I'm going to see him live. But while I'm in town, let's get together. Let's do a live show. Paramount Theater in Austin on Wednesday, February 19th. Tickets go on sale tomorrow at 10:00 AM Central Time. Again, live Austin, Wednesday, February 19th. Paramount Theater, some special guests. Basically, the BS podcast just doing its thing. Tickets go on sale Saturday at AM Central Time. Details will be available at theringer. Com/events. Very soon. Hope to see you there. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. If you missed part one of this podcast, we put it up earlier today, and it was a midseason power poll that I got a lot of takes off on and really had a good time. Then, Joel Anderson and Van Lathen join me to talk about college football and a whole bunch of other stuff, the Ohio State Notre Dame game, Joel's five favorite things. Really fun pod, but we had to keep going because football is happening this weekend, round two, NFL play-off.

I have Shiel Capote and Joe House joining us. We're going to break down every game, our favorite parts of each matchup, and then we're going to do some million-dollar pics. I mentioned I wanted to talk about the Wildfire recovery efforts out here in Southern California. There's a lot of great things happening. I wanted to pass along five charities that I really like. The Wildfire Recovery Fund, which is calfund. Org. It's set up by the California Community Fund. That's just trying to get money to all the places we need as Southern California is obviously in a major, major crisis right now. The SoCal Fire Fund, which you can find at eifoundation. Org. It provides immediate long-term support for community centers Standard Recovery Initiative that aid students, school employees, and families impacted by the January 2025 fires. The third one is the LAFD Foundation Emergency Fire Fund, which you can find at supportlafd. Org. They provide vital equipment and fund critical programs to help the LAFD save lives, protect communities. Then there's World Central Kitchen, WCK. Org. Their relief team is in Southern California right now, supporting first responders and families impacted by wildfires in the LA area.

They have a link at the top when you go right to WCK to help Los Angeles, specifically. Then last but not least, Habitat for Humanity, which has really gotten involved in the last week. They have a disaster response fund set up on their website at habitat. Org for the wildfires. I'm committing $250,000 total, 50K a piece to the five that I just mentioned. If you're listening, do whatever you want. Do whatever you can. There's no right answer for any of this, but that's what I'm doing, at least. All right, we are going to talk football right now with Sheil and House. Stay safe out there in Southern California. Hope everybody is good. We're going to talk some football right now. Our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, we're taping this. It is Thursday afternoon, Pacific Time. Joe House is here because we do Million Dollar Picks. We did not get to do them last week. We're going to to bounce back strong this week. We brought in the real star of the Ringer Sunday pregame show, Shiel Capadeya, who comes in every couple of weeks like Deion Waiters and just crushes it. Big heat checks from you.

Congrats on that.

Yeah, I said on the show, Indian Timothée Chalame. He goes on game day and just goes in, crushes it, disappears. I feel like that was my role on the Ringerwise guys this year.

I mean, respectfully. Everybody loves winners. We love having Shiel on. Shiel comes on. All he does is give out winners. But respectfully, if you're picking one thing a week, some of these winners were Deshaun Watson Under's. Like, okay. Aj Brown on, catches the week after he complained. He bitched like, Oh, is AJ Brown going to get caught? Yes. Again, we love winners.

We love winners.

This is what success looks like. Success comes with the backlash. You're feeling the backlash now.

Minus 110 or better. Listen, that's all I look at, and then I go with the pick. I'm retiring on top. Thank you.

Can Can we go right to the Eagles's Rams game? We're going to break down all four games. Sheil is a Philly student. You can see him on the Ringer Philly special sometimes. I do the playoff manifesto, and I'm going to read all the rules in a second. The playoff manifesto goes back to the late '90s. I've been honing it, cultivating it, working it, adding rules, taking out rules. Eagles's Rams has more manifesto rules attached to it than any playoff game I can ever remember. It has It has red flags. It has come hither, this is good. It is all over the map, which is what I could imagine you're probably feeling with this Eagles's game, right?

I actually feel like they're going to win pretty handily in this game. Oh, my God. Yeah, and I'm not usually like that. I've been on the fence. I wasn't sure about that. Packers game. I feel pretty confident that the eagles are going to win this game, so I need to hear the violations they have going in.

So we got to go through the manifesto. Before we do, You're leaning eagles. You're eagles-ish, too, for this game, correct?

I'm beyond eagles-ish. I'm full on eagles-hump. I mean, it's go, birds, go. I think that this is a terrible spot for the Rams. I think that The Eagles have advantage on both sides of the line, both defensive line and offensive line. It's like we're playing in the freezing effing cold, and I know the team that has the better lines. Let's go. Let's go get a W.

Thirty-five degrees, maybe worse. Rain and snow, potentially. Matthew Stafford coming from LA. I'll go through some of the manifesto rules because it really is eye-opening. Rule number one, beware of the looked a little too good the previous playoff round team. That couldn't be more Ramsey. Rule number three, beware of the nobody believes in us team. Don't try to talk yourself into one either. I think the Rams are trying to... There's a nobody believes in us case. Rule number four, a sad one, but beware of any team that might use a major off-field distraction as galvanizing force leading up to a game. We saw that last week, the Rams, all the terrible stuff in LA, it really seemed like it affected them in the game, positively. Rule number six, never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win. I'm going to stop there before I keep going with the rules. Do the Rams genuinely have a chance to win, Sheil?

I don't think they have a great chance. The Eagles have not lost a game that Jail and Hertz has started and finished since September 29th, week 4. We've gone through this whole season where you're watching them, you're going this passing game sucks sometimes. Every drop back is resulting in a sack or a throw away. And then their talent usually just overwhelms the opponent. There's one play by A. J. Brown or Saquon Barkley, or last week it's Dallas Goddard or Devante Smith. It's like they don't have to be efficient down to down. And then what House said, they've got probably the best offensive line in football. So I add all those things up. And with as conservatively as Jalen Hertz is playing right now, for better or worse, they're not a team who's going to give the game away. So every team always has a chance. We know that. But when you read that one out loud, that really rang true to me.

House is Sam Darnold. Is it true he's living in your attic right now?

I mean, he's welcome. And by the way, he's still going to get a great contract. It's not going to be the massive contract, but still, I mean, a couple of years, 25 million bucks, you could do worse. I mean, congratulations to him. What was his best hope for outcome when he took the ball on first down, the first play of this season? I mean, I think if you told him, How about another couple of years and 25 million bucks? You're good with that? I think he might have said yes.

Unfortunately, it was the sports movie for him where the final scene was him, his teammates lifting him up after the packers game and going nuts. And the movie should have just ended? But there was 20 minutes to go in the movie, and he got his ass kicked by the lines in last week against the ramps. Sheil, we didn't talk about this on the pot, at least with you. Were you surprised that Darnold cratered like that? Because he wrote me in. He wrote me in, he roped Salon. Did he rope you in? He half roped you in, right, house? Darnold? Well, sure.

A little bit. I mean, the thing that we couldn't divine on our own, it just revealed itself, is that that offensive line for the Viking suffered injuries on the left side that created some mismatches for both Detroit and for the Rams. And he couldn't. Yeah, he couldn't. He held the ball too long. He froze. He went back to his old DM A.

Why didn't that happen against Green Bay? Shio, what happened?

Yeah. I mean, I wrote on the Ringer in week 14, I had this piece that said, The Vikings can't make the Daniel Jones mistake with Sam Darnold. And then the next three weeks, he was awesome. And I'm like, shoot, I I just screwed that one up. I think if you zoom out, I think part of it's what House said. I think part of it is we probably overrated that Vikings passing game. I mean, in the regular season, they were 14th in passing DVOA. They were statistically in the mediocre range. Then they have these two games where you have some protection issues. A lot of what they did was based on the explosive passing game. If he's holding onto the football and that's taken away, their run game was never really that efficient. They weren't that methodical. So, yeah, I got roped back in. I thought they were going win that game. I thought that Lyons game was a blip on the radar, and they were trending in the right direction. But it was two games in a row where the ghost of Sam Darnold came back a little bit.

I stayed at the craps table too long with Sam Darnold and with the Steelers heading into December. Just should have taken my chips, gone with House to get some food, some 2 AM pizza, and just would have been super happy with it. Hey, House, when he said the Daniel Jones' mistake, which I think is a great way to frame it. That's basically been the philosophy of the Washington Wizards for the last 40 years, the Dana Jones mistake. This guy showed some hope. Here's a lot of money. Oh, shit, we shouldn't have done that.

Why is there Wizards violence on this football podcast? What are we talking about? What are we talking about? What are we talking about?

What are we talking about? What are you talking about? What did that resonate with you.

Who cares about the Wizards?

I thought maybe it was... I didn't know if Daniel Jones was the guy starting for the Sixers tomorrow night because none of their guys played. I was a little confused there. I'm glad you took the shot at the Wizards, not the Sixers.

Thank you. Well, Embiid, he'll be back eventually when there's that four really tough games in five. When do you play Charlotte? Embiid is going to be back for that one. Circle it. Embiid has got Charlotte circled. Is there a Toronto game? Oh, I'll play against Toronto. That's great. All right, more manifesto rules. We're not even done with this game. Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather. Yikes. Rule number eight, beware of any and all aging QBs in cold weather unless they drink half their body weight in water in like 40 things Tom braided did. Rule number 15, this is working against the Eagle Shield.

Okay.

Make sure the team with a home field advantage actually has a home field advantage Philly's in that weird zone. The fans, they get fickle really fast. They get upset really fast. There's an ornery vibe in that stadium. Do you feel that changes this week with the snow and the rain or does it get worse?

Yeah, I was in the stands those early 2000s when they had the McNab teams and they were favorites against the Bucks and the Panthers, and the fan base was so confident going into those games, and then you saw what happened. So really, it comes down to early in the game, if you have a few three and outs, no, it doesn't change. This is it In our DNA, this is what it's going to be like. But I think there's also a possibility that Saquon Barkley has a 35-yard run in the first quarter, and all of a sudden, the place is going bonkers, and they don't actually have to worry about that. But yes, to answer your question, it could go either way if they get off to a slow start.

It's the only out of the four home games house. It's the only crowd that I feel like you might be able to take out in the first quarter. I don't feel like you're taking out Buffalo. Kc has been there too many times. Detroit is going to be a mad house. I don't feel like that crowd is going to get nervous. But I feel like you can get to the Philly crowd because there's that motto of the Eagles, that first quarter, 39 seconds of play. It just feels clumsy and discombobulated. It's zero, zero after the first quarter. Don't you think, house? There's a world. Well, that's been the script all season.

They're among the bottom teams in the NFL in terms of scoring in the first quarter, so they're not coming out and instilling confidence. They're not coming out and kicking ass. Now, they did score a countdown within the first three minutes of the first quarter of this most recent game, but that's because of the bogus fumble that happened, and that was the only shutdown of the first half. If you want to be frustrated with the Eagles getting going, I think I I hope, I don't know, the good people of Philadelphia, having seen Hertz get the rust off a little bit with that Green Bay game, they'll be patient and understand. The best way for the Eagles to win this football game is to just run the football down the Ram's throat and do it, and it may take a little while to get the battering in place. That is their pathway. But Philly doesn't really strike me as a place that has a lot of patience.

The only thing I didn't believe about everything you just said is when you said the good people of Philadelphia. You don't like Philadelphia.

Who are you kidding? You don't. You don't.

You don't like Philadelphia.

You don't. Philadelphia. Here's the thing.

You're from Washington. Why would you like Philadelphia?

Over the years, I've softened because of two things. There is incredible golf. Super underrated golf in the Philadelphia area. I got to play Marion last year. Marvelous. But yes, the food in Philadelphia, again, crazy underrated. The food in Philadelphia, we should go do. I did a Philadelphia food tour with Chris Ryan five or six years ago on the of Carbs, and the scene just keeps getting better and better. I have my soft spots for Philadelphia.

Yeah. It's basically just all selfish, food and golf, the two things you care about. That's how to win over Joe House. Shil, you agree with the food scene?

Yeah, I want in on all of this house. Next time you come, Marion is about 15 minutes that way. I'm pointing here. Then obviously house eating. I mean, whether I'm observing or participating, I'm hearing about this. You're participating. Yeah, over a I've been hearing about the legend.

It starts out with participating, and then it turns into observing. At about the 45 minute mark when everyone else is finished and the house is still eating somehow.

Guilty. Guilty as charged.

Two more rules. Take one last look at the quarterbacks. Remember, there's plenty of time to bet against any QB or coach. This is specifically a Hertz question. I know is Hertz, what does he command on your Eagles text thread, Sheil? How much of the conversation is what's up with hurts? Like 40%, 20%, what is it?

Yeah, it might be over 50% and the conversation has been, is it hurts or is the coaching terrible? Because you'll be looking at the film and all that and everyone's pointing out no one's open and they're running the same play seven times in a game. And it's like, what are they doing? And then you watch some of these other offenses, and they're beautiful and guys are getting schemed wide open. So that's the big argument right now. In addition to, Can this team win the Super Bowl? You know how Philadelphia is.

With the defense you have.

Yeah. The defense is awesome. Everybody's happy with the defense. Everybody's happy with the offensive line. Saquon Barkley might have the highest approval rating of any Philadelphia athlete right now. Wow. And he's only been there for a year.

Who's this competition for that?

Bryce Harper.

How about this? Nobody on the Sixers.

No. Maxi. Maxi. Everybody still loves Maxie. So Maxi is on there. Whatever. Bryce Harper is there. Bryce. Yeah, But I think Saquon Barkley has only been there for a year. But I said it's the best offensive season for a Philadelphia Eagle since I've been alive. And I think that's true. And so I think, yeah, he's taken over the fan base.

Is there any explanation for the weird pace of the Eagles's offense and the lack of unpredictable and just how there's a sameness to every drive. There's a methodical nature to it, and they never zag, they never keep you on your toes. Why did they it that way? I just don't understand it as a football fan.

I think Siriani has this Bobby Knight saying in his office, that the team that makes the fewer mistakes wins, or whatever the quote is. That's how they play. If you watch this last game, they are running the ball on every third and long. They're being conservative on fourth down. If Jalen Hertz has an opportunity to throw the ball to A. J. Brown, and he's not sure this year, he is just tucking the football, throwing it away and running And so everything they do is like, Hey, our defense is awesome. Saquon is going to break one eventually. Let's not give the game away. And so I think that's why it looks like that.

So just save as few plays as possible. It's old school. Keep the clock moving. Do you agree with that house?

I do. It does fit the personnel that the Eagles have. We did think that Ketland Winslow was going to come in as a Whiz-Bang guy and really show, open up that offense in a way that who is the poor guy that got run out of town last year.

Brian Johnson.

Yeah. There was a lot of bad taste left in the mouth from the Ron Johnson experiment. And Brian Johnson. All of them. All the Johnson.

Anyone named Justin.

Bad Johnson in the mouth. That's all I could say.

Possible new rule. This is not in the manifesto. I'm just going to throw it out here. It's a possibility. Possible new rule. Beware of any home playoff favorite with a frustrated fan base that might Who do you hate the team, coach, and/or QB?

I don't think they're there. I think they like the team a lot because the defense- Okay, good.

I'm checking.

They like the team a lot. It's probably split on Hertz, and it's probably split on Siriani, I would say.

For the lean for a million dollar pick, I think House and I, we were talking about it earlier. If I had to bet it straight up, I would take the Eagles, and I think the Rams won their game. I think the biggest manifesto rule is where team that looked too good last week, I think they fit. I like them more on a tease or a parlay, though. I think that's the play with them. If they screw us, they screw us. But I think that's the way to go. Are you safe with that, still?

Yeah. I mean, this would go down as one of the darker upsets at home. Now, there have been some of those in recent Philadelphia sports memory. I think they're justifiably six and a half point favorites in this game. I would They could lose, but I would be surprised if they lost this game.

And has here on board with that.

Yeah. I think the Eagles are going to win. I don't mind laying the six and a half. But if you want to tease them from six and a half down to a half and just have them win out, right? I'm not going to argue with you.

Let's do Chiefs Texans really quick. Chiefs minus eight and a half over the Texans. I still feel like if they call the intentional grounding on Stroud or if that fumble shotgun that goes over his head bounces to the left and the chargers are up 13-0. That game's probably over. It was like it gave Stroud the superpower. I wasn't really impressed with either of those teams. Meanwhile, you got Casey, three wins from a three-peat. Andy Reid could have 29 playoff wins by mid February. Mahomes could be 18 and three in the playoffs by mid-February. They're plus 350 for the Super Bowl, which seems high because I clearly think they're going to win this game. And now you basically have plus 350 for two games. The one that jumped out to me, though, this was in the bundos column about how KC has failed to cover every seven plus spread this season. 0 and 7, even though they won all of those games, Sheil. So this looks like the classic, just put them in a tease parlay because this is just what they do. They win by seven, they win by four, they win by three. And yet, I like how the Chiefs look lately.

This is the best version of them we've seen this year. Could this be a little bit of a breakout party for them? Where are you leaning?

Yeah, DeBundo scared me with that one, too, in his column. But I feel the same way. I feel like the Chiefs have a lot of things going for them in this game. The way they want to play is get the ball out quickly, methodical drives downfield, and that's the way you want to play against a team that has a great pass rush with the Houston Texan. So this isn't going to be a new thing for them where they got to play left-handed or whatever. That's how they want to play. And to your point, that's how they were playing down the stretch of the season, where it was just long, methodical drives, the ball's not hitting the ground, Mahomes short completions, go down the field. So I like them offensively there. And then defensively, C. J. Stroud is 29th against the Blitz this year. When you look at all the efficiency numbers, I like to look at Chief's Blitz at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. So I'm with you. I didn't watch that Texans game last week. I wasn't like, wow, I feel differently about their offense. This was the worst offense of any team that made the playoffs by DVOA.

And so I think they're going to have issues offensively. I think there's a chance they could ugly up the game a little bit with their defense in their pass rush. But I like the Chiefs, but I think you're right. If it is a slow game, maybe bump the Chiefs down and do a teaser.

Chiefs, eighth run, eighth against the run, fourth QB hits, six QB hurries, 11th tackles behind the line of scrimage house. There's a random non-nerd sports hack talk case with Mahomes where it's been Lamar and Josh for three Three, four weeks here. Mahomes is shoved to the side. He's like, Old guy Mahomes, even though he was 27, 28. It's like, Oh, yeah, and Patrick Mahomes. But all the hype with this Lamar versus Josh and everyone talking about them the whole year and the Ravens, and they're the best team. It's just fucking fuel for that. Everything we know about Mahomes, this is absolute fuel for this dude. I wonder if he pulls it out this week, because he waves it around and he does the lasso. He's like, This is the first game of the weekend. Hey, by the way, I'm Patrick Mahomes, and he just does 17 Mahomes things and reminds us how great he is.

Well, part of what is going to facilitate that is the health, the restored health for Kansas City, really on both sides of the ball, but definitely on offense, all of their weapons will be available. One of my very favorite bets on the FanDuel sportsbook is Patrick Mahomes over one and a half passing TDs. It was minus It's 144. I have no issue whatsoever with laying it, and I'll probably parlay that with Kansas City to win outright. That's fine. I love the narrative aspect of this that you're describing, BS, which is we're going into a weekend where everybody is absolutely appropriately fantasizing about what's going to come between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes in the first game of the weekend is like, I'm still here.

I'm right here. I'm right here. I'm going for a three-peat, guys. Hey, I'm right here. Winner still has to go through me. I think those certain guys are... Like, braided was always wired like this, and he's talked about it pretty openly. These guys take everything personally. They take every slate. They notice everything. They pretend they don't, but they do. Shiel, does this add up to you at all? This could be an FU performance from Mahomes.

Yeah, absolutely. It could be an FU playoff run. I mean, they are well positioned. They are monster favorites at home, and then they're going to get to face whichever team lost that Ravens Bill's battle. Which will be a battle. Yeah, and then they're potentially in the Super Bowl. Absolutely, from the narrative stand, not getting mentioned with AllPro, MVP, all those conversations that happen this time of year, and all they are are the one seed in the AFC going for a three-peat.

So one bet, and this is something we saw last week with the quarterbacks that you don't want them to run during the first 18 weeks of the season. But when we get to the playoffs, you start using your legs more. And this has been house. We've cashed in on this with Mahomes Holmes so many times. It's basically even odds, 25 plus yards this week against Houston. We know he does this in the playoffs. In the playoffs, he starts moving around more, taking more chances using his legs. I thought last week I was mad that I didn't think of that with Lamar. It was so obvious that, of course, they were going to do that. Of course, he was going to use his legs like that. With the Texans, their D-line is really good. Their ends can Can put some pressure on, and the Chief's tackles make me nervous. As I play the game out on my head shield, that's the one thing I keep coming back to is, let's say this is just one of those weird, classic, ugly first half Chief playoff games. They're putting pressure on Mahomes. They get the one long Nico Collins pass.

Chief's guy fumbles a punt, and all of a sudden it's like 10-7 Texans at halftime. We're like, What the hell is going on? My tease is in danger. What's happening? I don't see another scenario other than that. Is there anything else we're not thinking of?

No, that's the biggest thing. Their pressure against those tackles is one. Two is the Chiefs are 30th in explosive plays. The only teams that create explosive plays at a lower rate than them have been the Raiders and the Browns. So they are going to have to work at it. If you shrink the game and all of a sudden you have a weird fumble or a weird penalty and you ugly it up that way, then maybe the Texans have an opportunity here. The other thing is, if you still believe in C. J. Stroud and feel like the season has I still like him. I don't like him here in this spot. If you ask me if we're doing a pot in August and how do I think he's going to perform, I think he's going to bounce back next year. I don't think he has it this year. But if you think he does have it this year and he comes in and has him and Nico Collins combined for, like you said, 160 yards, maybe that keeps him in it. I don't see it with their offensive scheme, their offensive line. I think he's going to have a tough day.

He's an unusual quarterback because during the same game, it can feel like he lost his confidence, and then he completely gained it back and has It's all happening over the course of three hours. You saw it happen last week. The play-off manifesto is for this one. This is a big one. Rule number 6. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win. This has been something that's been really helpful over the years. Look, if you pick Casey minus eight and a half and they don't cover the odds of threading that needle between the higher number and them winning, we call it. I just want to pick winners and not worry about the line, so maybe a little bit less on that. But I don't think Houston has a chance to win. I don't think they're good enough. So that's one. Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather. Boom, Texans. Beware of any team that reminds you of the 2007 Giants rule. I don't think the Texans remind me the 2007 Giants, but I just wanted to talk it out. There's a couple of similarities, mix and run in the ball, a younger erratic up and down back like Eli in 2007, a good pass rush, a really good coach.

There's elements, but I'm not willing to go there. Shil, you agree?

I don't think so. Yeah, that would shock me.

House? The mix-in thing, especially, is a stretch. He only runs well against teams that are permitted and the game script. He had 60 of his 100 yards on the last drive of the game where Houston really closed out that game. Otherwise, he had a very average day. And that's really been the story of Joe Mixon this entire season. They came out with an offense that looks super formidable when everybody was healthy. I thought, oh, this is the version of Houston that's going to win this division and maybe win 12 games or something and really be a threat. And then they had the injuries and their offensive line never was up to the task. And that's the problem with mixing. You can't establish the run with the offensive line that they have. And they ain't establishing the run against the Chiefs. I'll tell you that much right now.

Rule number 16 is take one last look at the quarterbacks. It's Mahomes versus Stroud. Mahomes has lost three times. He lost the D-Ford game to braided. His first year as a starter, where if D-Ford doesn't... It's one of the great breaks in the history of Boston sports, D-Ford jumping offsides. You have that. You have him get his ass kicked by Tampa in the Super Bowl, where there's real reasons for that. Tampa's defense was great. They were able to pressure him the whole game. It was a little bit of a goofy KC season. So that was the one. And the third one was the game House and I lost incredible amounts of money on when the bangles beat the Chiefs, where Mahomes got concussed at the end of the second quarter, and they pretended he wasn't. But something happened, and he was never the same the rest of the game. My point is, it's very unusual for Patrick Mahomes to lose in the playoffs, and I feel pretty safe about putting money on him against the Houston Texans guys.

Yeah, agreed.

I think we're unanimous.

Okay, great. We're going to take a break and hit the other two games. The Bill Simmons This podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. From first whistle to final drive, FanDuel takes the NFL playoffs to the next level. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That's $300 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 bet. The FanDuel app gives you everything you need for live bets, same game parlay, so much more. Plus, when you win, you'll get paid instantly. We're ripping through million dollar pics at the end of this podcast. I like round two. We have some good props as well, so stay tuned for that. Visit fando. Com/bs to join today. Get started with $300 of bonus bets. Again, fando. Com/bs. You can go check out the Ringer specials as well on the NFL page. Make this playoff season, Unforgettable with Fando, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. Must be 21 plus in President Select States or 18 plus in President DC. First online real money wage or only $5 for a deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt.

Restrictions by seat terms at sportsbook. Fando. Com. Game problem, call 1-800, gambler, or visit rg-help. Com. All right, our third game, The Lions against the Washington Seawards, the beloved team of Joe House. Here are the rookie quarterbacks that have made the conference title, Gamehouse. The true rookies. Rock Purdy, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacko, Ben Rothsberger, Sean King. Daniels is the most talented of all of those guys. His team needs him the most out of all of those guys. I'm just pointing that out because... So, braided, first year as a starter, made the Super Bowl. Mahomes' first year as a starter, almost made the Super Bowl. So if you think he's on that class, maybe that's a better comparison. Does Daniels have it in him to win two playoff games and drag this team to the conference title game?

Are you Are you asking me that question?

I am.

Hell, no. And it doesn't have anything to do with Jaden Daniels. He doesn't get to play defense. I mean, the problem is that the offense, they will have a great game plan, and they will do their best to shrink the game. They will try and have long drives. They'll try and replicate what they did against Tampa. In that game, both teams had exactly seven possessions. That's the best way for Washington to have a chance. They Every possession is a four-down possession. There's no such thing as three downs and punt with Washington unless- Unless it's like fourth and ninth or something.

Yeah.

And very much on the wrong side of the field. That's exactly right. But Jaden Daniels can't control the defense, and the defense, God bless them. It's been bend, don't break all season long. They've put that offense in position to go win six consecutive last possession games. The last possession of the game for Washington, they've won. It's an absolute miracle. And Jaden Daniels has been a tremendous... The hyperbole for his performance, I can't overstate how much he's done to transform this franchise, but he doesn't play defense, so it's not up to him.

Everything House late just laid out, Shiel. This is why I'm not betting it because I always lose on over-unders, but the over-underer seems so high to me. It's 55 and a half. The lions, I think, are 33 a half, the over-under for their total points on Fandil. And I agree with House. I think Washington is going to try to have these long-ass drives and try to keep it to seven possessions on each side, and that's it. Why does everybody think this is going to be a shootout?

Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with House. House nailed it. An average NFL game, you get 11 possessions in a game. And so everything about this commander's game plan has to be lean into the variance, like House was saying. If it's only seven possessions, and now Jared Goff has a pass deflected at the line of image that somebody comes down with.

It gives fumbles before it gets stripped.

Yeah, it has a bigger impact. Exactly. And that's how the commanders want to play. Methodical long drives, run the football, complete passes at a very high rate. So they've got that in them. And then the same thing about the fourth down stuff. If they're in the red zone, if they're on the past midfield, they need to be aggressive, a fake punt here and there. When you're an underdog of this magnitude and you're facing an offense in such a mismatch with the Lion's offense against your defense. I think that's how you have to play. So I would not go against Jaden Daniels in a big spot. I don't know that there's another quarterback in the NFC that you say, Hey, if you take the Lions here minus eight and a half, and it's whatever, a three point game, a five point game in the fourth quarter, and the commanders had fourth and six. I want to be on the Jaden Daniels side on that because he's come through over and over and over again. And there's a couple of schematic things here. We know how the Lions play: man coverage coverage, and they want to blitz.

Jaden Daniels, very good against man coverage because he can use his legs, and he has killed the blitz this year. All those rookie quarterbacks you named, as you were reeling them off, I'm like, That guy had a great team. That guy had a great team. Jaden Daniels doesn't have a great team. He's putting the team on his back. I took the commanders with the points just when I pick every game. I don't like being on the other side of that guy.

Also in a dome against a not that good defense. It doesn't seem like the crowd is going to bother him because it doesn't seem like anything bothers him. The amazing thing is how much they fucking trust him house. Some of the things they were asking to do in the second half, it was like he's 32 years old. That little So, I don't know, lobbed screen pass that was one of the key plays of the game, I mean, nine things can go wrong in that play, but they trusted him. It just seems like over and over again, he has the wherewithal to know what to do in the right spots. He's really exciting. I think the line's too high. I'm not going to put a ton of money on Washington or anything, but I was looking at the alt line of Washington plus four and a half as plus 182 on Fando. I think this could be a close game. It reminds me of some of the games last year when we had Green Bay as a big underdog. We had Tampa as a big underdog with the Rams or an underdog at one point. I think they can score, and I think even if they're down 14 plus, they can get a cheap countdown down stretch.

I think the line is too high.

So that's the case, right? Nine and a half is a big number when you have a quarterback on the other side like Jaden Daniels. And Washington will play this entire game all the way out, right? They're not going to do an El Foldo here. And so even if the Detroit's up 17 points with six minutes left and Washington gets the ball and goes down, they could score a shutdown and get a two-point conversion. And you lose your bet because they take it from 17 down to nine, and you've lost the nine and a half point cover. It's a great tease candidate. I mean, the thing with Detroit that I really believe is going to be the big swing here is they're going to establish the run. If David Montgomery is back and is in full force, they're going to establish the run and just run the football down Washington's throat. They might get explosive with it. Because if Jamer Giff gets outside, he gets gone. It just could be a couple of quick scores.

That's my fear. You I always write down all the different stats and see how the teams match up in the offense versus defense. You just see that Washington defense 30th against the run, Detroit sixth with the run, and that was without Montgomery the last couple of weeks. The fear would be Detroit just rushing 49 carries for 270 yards, one of those games. Manifesto rules. Beware of the Nobody believes in us team. Is Washington or Nobody believes in us team house? Because it seems like there's belief.

I think there's belief. I mean, certainly here in Washington. I think Jane Daniels, this is part of the joy of being a Washington fan. He's captured the national imagination because of his stones. He has the biggest balls of any athlete in Washington that I can think of. I mean, Ovie came in with big balls, but then Cydney Crosby kicked his ass for a while. Ovie finally got the Stanley Cup, where he's threatening the great ones record.

Bradley Bill. Bradley Bill is the other one.

God damn it. Just let's move on.

Well, you're talking about Washington stars with huge balls who came through in big moments. That was the other guy that jumped to mind for me. You got a bunch of pick swaps for him.

You're a dick.

Two more manifesto rules. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win. I don't necessarily think Washington is going to win, but I also don't really believe in that Detroit defense either. And part of the calculus when you think about We're back in on Detroit, partly because their defense looks so good against Minnesota. Then the Rams who were 26, the DBOA, also looked awesome against Minnesota. Where do we stand on the Detroit defense right now, for what we know? Yeah, I'm with you. Guys coming back, all that stuff.

Yeah. I mean, you look at the stats and stuff, and they're what, top five in DVOA, and they got some guys back, and they hung in there, and they had a great game plan against the Vikings. But I'm with you. I want to see a little bit more. When we saw the Rams do that to the Vikings, I had the same thought like, All right, let me rethink what I think about that Lion's defense. I don't know. I think the Lion's, I picked them to win the Super Bowl before the postseason began. I still think they're going to win this game. But if you told me, Hey, which of these big dogs is going to actually win this weekend? Commanders, Rans, or Texans, I'm riding with Jaden Daniels out of those three.

I think I agree with that house. I'm not just saying that because you're here.

I love it. No, I love it. That's the best case, right, is that Jaden Daniels in Washington controlling the ball on offense. They play defense by playing great, efficient offense, and that's their best opportunity.

House, is it possible for you to talk about the resurgence of Washington football over the last 12 months without breaking into tears?

I mean, tears were beyond tears. What it's done for my libido, for my love life, it's just been unbelievable. It's like a Viagra. It's better than that. I tell you what, it's better than that.

Washington ultimately as a football town, and this brought it back after Dan Snyder basically injected medicine into everybody's bodies to put them into a medical coma the entire time he was an owner.

It was worse than that. Danny Heifitz of the Ringer, a great story on at ringer. Com about the return of Washington as a place where good football can happen. We have this legacy, this unbelievable 20 years of success that a bad owner came in He ruined it for three generations, almost. There are people in my life who are like, this is our first playoff win. There are young folks here who never saw any of the old glory Days with Joe Gibbs and the high flying Washington attack. And it's just this city is for sure a football city. It's back. It's back. Yes.

Shia, when I met House in 1988, and we went to college together, you were a year ahead of me, but 88, 90, 91. Washington was like, they were probably the team. There was a bunch of successful teams in the '80s, but they were the most consistently successful over a 12-year fan all the way through the rip in Super Bowl. That's how I knew you as this confident football fan. Then I gradually watched it get beaten out of you.

Well, it coincided with the Patriots getting good and Tom braided. Well, we flipped. Think about how bad that was for me.

Well, we both sucked in the '90s and then it went back. But, Shio, is it weird for you that Washington has hope again? Because you've probably given up on them as an Eagles fan.

Yeah. When I was first following the Eagles, it was those teams you're mentioning, and they were better than the Eagles. There has been this long... I mean, the Giants have been one of the worst teams in the NFL the last decade. The Commanders have been hopeless. Now it's flipping a little bit. I will say a lot of love there for Josh Harris. I mean, if Josh Harris wants to buy the Wizards and give up the Sixers and just be a full-time DC guy, I think that would be okay with the people in Philly. That's a big thing in Philly. Franchise trading.

Philly hates Josh Harris. They are so out on him as the Sixers owner. I hear it all the time from my Philly people.

It's funny that you could be good at owning one team and then bad at owning the other team. Yes. But it's basically like you would think it was something on the same skillset. All right, so we're going to lean toward... So lions in a parlay or tease, we're all good with that? Yes. And then maybe a little hedge Washed in Bet, like a little tiny one house?

You can do it. I'm not participating. You do it.

All right, The Big Cahuna, Ravens bills, which flipped. It was bills minus one and a half, and now it's Ravens minus one and a half, as predicted on this podcast with Sal on Sunday. There's so many ways to go with this. A couple of people have brought up versions of this, but I feel like I've been alive long enough that I've seen a lot of these. People throw in the great QB matchups, and they just grab two people who are really good. To me, it's different than a great QB matchup. It's a point of the career QB matchup, which I think is completely different and a lot more special. I wrote down, When we were in college, Montana and Elway played in this Super Bowl, and it was really meaningful. Elway felt like this one-man band. Montana had a chance to be the greatest ever. It was like, Who's winning this? Just that moment felt important. Elway Farr was really fun. Elway had already won. Favre was the next Elway. Elway is trying to go back to back. Favre was the next guy. That was a QB moment. '06, some people would say '03, '04, but braided wasn't braided really until '06.

I don't personally think. '06, he had nobody. The Colts were the team. He goes in there in Indianapolis. It's braided versus Manning. Manning's never beaten him in a big game. Manning comes back from '18. That was awesome. Braided versus Russell Wilson. Would you put that in there for where we were with Russell Wilson in 2014 in the Super Bowl, already winning a Super Bowl? Felt like he was heading toward Rodgers. Is he not quite good enough, Sheil?

I think not quite good enough. That was still the defense, I feel like with the identity of that team.

How do you agree? Totally agree with that. We'll cross off then. 2018, braided versus Mahomes in KC, AFC title game. Then same thing in 2020 when braided was on the Bucks. That was the last Last time, that, braided Mahomes was like the old, the old, Wizen champion versus the new upstart. This Lamar Josh battle is so unusual because neither guy has won. They're at this awesome point in their career. Even like I mentioned, '06 '98, Montana Elway. One side had won. This one, neither guy has won. They're competing against each other for the right to now have to then beat Patrick Mahomes. It's a really unusual game. Shiel, can you remember any matchup quite like I've seen this in football? We've seen it in basketball, but not in football.

No, this is because of the legacies, and they're both still young in their career. So I still think there's going to be a lot of narratives that come out of whichever quarterback loses, and I'm probably going to be the nerd being like, Relax, like that. It wasn't all on that guy. They're going to get there eventually. But it's been the same conversation around both these guys, really, to a large degree. They're both among the top two or three MVP candidates pretty much every year. You have them on your team. They get offensive coordinators paid. They get other players It's like they are the star of the show, and you can move the piece.

And they're one of ones, too.

There's nobody like either guy. Exactly. You have that as well. It's just a matter of time before one of them breaks through. I'm not saying either of them is ever going to be there with Mahomes, but I think each of them is going to have their year. Who's it going to be this year? Who has the better supporting cast? Who has the better chance? It all comes down to this matchup and how they play in this game.

House, I know how you feel about this game. This just seems like a terrible matchup for Buffalo. I just don't like the matchup. It's like a basketball team that's just going against an awesome center and doesn't have enough size to defend the center. It's Those three Shaqiers in the Lakers where they would just play whoever. They play the Sixers, the Nets. You just felt like, Man, they just don't have the size. I just think Baltimore has too much size for this Buffalo defense. I don't see a world where that Buffalo defense can win the game, which means Allen just has to be perfect and has to have one of the great moments of his career, I think, to beat them. You agree on this seems stacked for Baltimore angle, right?

That's definitely my point of view. But the aspect of it that is so curious and what we'll see in this upcoming offseason, I wonder, allowed, is it looks like a Baltimore has a defense that is well-constructed to compete against Kansas City. I don't think that they could have anticipated what impact Derrick Henry would have on Baltimore, and they don't have a defense that is... They're just not big enough. They're- You're talking about Buffalo's defense.

Buffalo. I'm sorry.

Buffalo's front seven is just too light. They just can't They could put everybody in the box, and that is a terrible predicament to put yourself into because Lamar really does have a next level of confidence. The way that they ran their offense against Pittsburgh last week, they just ran this this option play. It was like a pick and roll. And Pittsburgh had one solution for it. But just the confidence that Lamar demonstrated in his ability to make the right choice and just do it. And he didn't break a sweat. He just was like, this is the way. And I just think the way that Baltimore will get off with Derrick Henry, he's going to establish. Now, I don't think he's going to run, have a 90-yard countdown in the first touch like he did when these teams played in the regular season. But I do think they're going to establish him, and I do think he's going to get his yards, and it's going to come early, and then that Baltimore offense opens up. It's just a tough... I mean, I'm rooting for a tremendous game, so I I wanted to see the very best out of Josh.

But I just- You're a lover of football. The field is tilted in my humble estimation.

Sheil, I watch Hard Knocks because they're doing the AFC North, so I actually watched this week's episode. They had There's a lot of behind the scenes stuff of before the game and during the game. Lamar is just so fucking confident in all the stuff they capture. Confident in a way that I just don't remember seeing in the previous things. I think they all know they have something special with this combo, with the Lamar and Henry, that it's just unusual, it's different, it stands out, it's hard to stop. They have a swagger to it. You could just see it. What was interesting about it, they had Kam Hayward miced, and near the end of the first half when the Ravens got that last countdown and the Stealers are on the field, and he's like, We got to try to strip the ball. I'm dead. They're wearing us down. We got to force a turnover because he knows. He was like, They were killing them. I just don't see why that wouldn't also happen to Buffalo's defense. What world does Buffalo win this game?

All right, let me make the case for the people of Western New York. Josh Allen. Yeah, let's go. Narrative. Josh Allen, this was supposed to be a reset year. They get rid of Stefan Diggs. People like me are picking the Jets to win the AFC East. All the guy does is put this new cast of characters on his back every week. They win that division going away. And now he gets to the playoffs, and he's an underdog at home. He's healthy. He's one of the best quarterbacks we've seen in the last decade, and his team is an underdog. Everyone's pointing to that week four matchup, and the Bills did not have either starting linebacker in that game. They did not have Taryn Johnson, their nickel corner, who might be one of their best players on defense. All those guys are back here. By the way, people are forgetting that the Ravens probably are not going to have their leading wide receiver in this game. Zee flowers did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. You're looking at two evenly matched teams, one that is healthier, the other that is without its starting wide receiver. You don't have to be perfect on defense.

Derek Henry is going to get yards. Lamar Jackson is going to get yards. Can the Bills match them possession for possession? And can you get that one key turnover, that one key play on special team?

And home field advantage.

Home, yeah. I see the path for Ravens blow. You guys are right. House made the great point that the bills are small up front, and now you have the one team that you do not want to be small up front against, and the Ravens could run for over 200. But I'm not counting up. I was basically going to take whichever team was the dog here and just say, I'm going with that. Oh, I like it. So I was just flipping a coin back and forth, changing my mind all week. But Josh Allen is a home dog. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes. When these guys are home dogs, I'm just like, take them. If you lose, I'll live with it.

Two playoff manifesto rules. Rule number nine, severely discount anything that happened in the first five to week, six weeks of the season.

That's a good one.

That's a good one. When we go back to week four, week 5, guys are out. It's just stupid. I always discount that. Rule number 16, take one last look at the quarterbacks. Here's the difference. This isn't just Alan versus Lamar. It's Allen versus Lamar and Henry. I like James Cook. He's good. The Henry thing is different, and especially if they have a lead in the way they can keep it. I also feel like Baltimore's defense is just awesome against the run. We saw it again for Pittsburgh, it was just the all-time worst-case scenario matchup. For Alan, I think to beat them, he's going to have to do stuff with his legs. He's going to have to use his different receivers. It's going to be a lot of moving the ball, 10, 11, 12 play drives. I just think Baltimore is the best team, guys. Now, we've been in this spot heading into round two, and usually it doesn't work out with whoever we think that team is. I I think they're really good. I'm always a little slow. The catch is the playoff Lamar piece. What's interesting about this matchup is the stakes for both guys, if one of them really fails in this spot, it's We talk about legacy a lot in sports, but Lamar needs this game.

If he loses this one now with the better team, then I think it opens up a conversation where, Cool, you're the regular season guy, but every year in January, we see the same thing What are you doing wrong? When you talk about playoffs with quarterback Sheil. Is that fair to hang the losses on them like we do? Semi-fair, a little bit fair? Where do you stand?

This is where I feel like we've swung too far in the modern be fair to everyone type of sports analysis. When I was a kid, I remember watching a local Philly sports show, and they took a pumpkin, and Michael Jordan hadn't been Michael Jordan yet, and they took a bat and smashed this pumpkin and was like, Michael Jordan hasn't done anything. He's selfish. I'm like, All right, that was crazy. But also now we're like, this past week, you can't criticize Justin Herbert or Sam Darnold or Jordan Love. It's their offensive line. It's like, All right, you can tell me a guy had a great regular season. You can show me the film from week 12. When the stakes are at their highest, how do they perform? I agree that it hasn't been all on Lamar Jackson last year. Zee flowers fumbles. We should point that stuff But also when a quarterback doesn't play well in a big spot and they're in a certain year and it's not their first or second year in the NFL, I think it is fair to criticize them. So, yeah, if these guys go up and down the field and they both play awesome and one of them loses, then no, I'm not going to be like that guy can't win.

But if one of them comes out and lays an egg and turns the ball over more than they do in the regular season and their team loses, then we're allowed to. It's okay. We don't have to be overly fair to some of these guys.

I agree. I thought Justin and Herbert It was reprehensible last week. I don't feel like I criticized them enough.

He sucked and Jordan Love sucked. And Sam Darnold sucked. They all sucked. And looked at the quarterbacks. C. J. Stroud was excellent. Jay Danos was excellent.

For an hour and a half.

Yeah, well, enough to win the football game. Matthew Stafford was excellent. We're allowed to say that.

We're going to take a break and come back and do Million Dollar. Shil, you're going to stay on. We'll do Million Dollar Picks for round two. All right, Million Dollar Picks, round two. I'm going to throw out some possible bets. Ravens minus one and a half we talked about. Shil sounds like you just like the dog. You don't feel like you're just afraid of the game, it seems like.

I took the Bills in my official picks, but it was a coin flip. So, yeah, don't let my opinion there change what you guys say.

I'm sticking with my Malcolm Gladwell blink test on that one. I felt before I even knew what the line was, I was like, I just like the Ravens. I think it's a bad match up for the Bills. If the were playing the Chiefs, I'd feel better about it. I just don't like the Ravens bills, so we're probably going to put something on Ravens minus one and a half. There's a couple parlay teaser options with Chiefs, Eagles, lions on FanDuel. We do a little eight-point tease, even odds.

Oh.

We could take the Eagles all the way to plus one and a half. I know it infuriates Rahim, but it's actually better odds than the Moneyline Parlay to do the eight-point tease and to bring everything down. There's a seven-point tease, that's plus 120, and there's a six-point tease that's plus 140. So you would have Baltimore... I'm sorry, KC minus two and a half, the Eagles minus two and a half. Oh, no, the Eagles even, Lyons minus two and a half. My instinct is the eight-point tease, and you just have to win the chiefs. You just have to win the Lyons, and then you get the free point and a half in the Eagles game, and that's even odds, and who's going to fuck us? This is my instinct. Any alarms for either of you?

I feel like if you lose that, you get to watch a Jaden Daniels classic playoff game. I think other than that, you're safe, so it'll be worth it.

I think that Lyons 33 and a half is too high, but I don't want to bet it because I could also see a world where they score 50 points. But I just think it's too high. I think they're trying to sucker you into... It's a lot of points, especially with how we laid out the game. I like the Mahomes 25 plus rushing yards bet. That's one 15-yard scramble when he does the thing where he sticks the ball at the end and then gets a cheap shot and tries to pretend he got knocked unconscious for a second to try to get the flag. And two more scrambles, it's like a 4 for 20 Evan Sheil. Does that make sense to you?

I think so, yeah. And the Texans like to play man covers. They've got good corners. So there could be some plays in there where he has to hold onto the football, make a play, and he takes off.

So here's my concern, and I'm going I'm not going to make a recommendation. You can't parlay this, but I prefer attempts to yards when it comes to Mahomes because kneel downs count as attempts, and kneeldowns, behind the line of scrimage, detract from your rushing total. So if he's in the low 30s and they are running out the football at the end of the game and he knees down twice, you're all of a sudden in the real danger zone of getting down to like 24 yards and you lose your bet. The total for rush attempts is four and a half. Three rushes over the course of the game and then two knee-downs, you collect on your bet. Yeah, that's one that I like.

That's a better right there. I feel like I need to take notes. I'm in awe. That is a man who has been burned by a kneel down at some point in the last 10, 20, 30 years.

Shiel, which one do you like more, the 4.5 runs or the 25 plus yards?

How sold me on the kneel. Coming in the first half.

You can do both.

No, I'm doing one.

You can't parlay them, That's plus 110 on Fandil.

I'm going to mark that one down. So, Kelsey and Hopkins to both score touch downs, plus 931. Just mentioning it. Hopkins to score plus 310. It's been interesting watching them integrate him into their offense, and it seems like they really like him inside the 10, or usually it's Kelsey, and it seems like they like him, too. I've always had bad luck with the TD bets, but I mentioned that Stafford and Stroud to both throw a pick. So two road QBs against good defenses, both throw a pick plus 195.

I'm in. I love that one. I like the 2 to 1 odd. Stroud is like crazy. It's like minus 160 for him to throw a pick. It's some crazy number. So this is really a Stafford bet. And what's the status of Higre? I mean, is he...

I think he's supposed to play, but we don't know.

She'll seem lukewarm on the double pick bet.

Plus 195.

Listen, it's fun. My only concern would be if it's snowy, are they going with a run-heavy game plan? And then the Eagles are having one of those drives where it's like the Eagles have possessed the ball for 11 minutes in the set, so he doesn't have the opportunities to throw the pick. But listen, it's a little... You don't have to put... It's a sprinkle.

It's a tiny dabble.

It would be a sprinkle. I'm not going to say no to any bet like that.

Henry and Barkley both score touchdowns plus 134 on Sunday. The little Sunday running back stud, touchdown parlay. Henry with Hertz bumps to plus 174 Tush Pushy, something. Five-yard scramble. Hedley both. Kerts TD, plus 175.

Play both.

Josh Allen, TD, is plus 105. The other Can you jump out?

Well, when you were talking about the runningbacks, I like Saquon and Derrick Henry's longest rush. Derrick Henry's is like 20.5. Saquon Barckley's is 18.5 yards. I think both of those guys are going to get the ball a lot and break one of them throughout the course of the game. That's just if you're worried about getting cheated, like you said, on a shutdown where Saquon Barkley runs it to the one, and then they give it to Jalen Hertz. That's one I would look at. I like the Barkley one, specifically over 18 and a half yards as his longest rush. Pairing that with something with Henry could make sense.

What are the ads on that longest rush? Do you remember?

I'm looking at it now. I think it's around minus 110, probably.

House, have you ever experimented with the longest rush? I feel like I'm doing an exotic tequila shot.

I'm really exciting. I'm horrible.

I'm more of a- Barcly's minus 120 for Barclays, 19 and up. Then for Henry, it's probably, I'm going to guess this same. That will It'd be 20 and a half minus 120. If you try to hit both of them, probably split one, maybe lose a little big or hit both. What do you think, house?

Part of them. Just put them together. I agree with the idea that both of them are going to get them. Both of those teams are committed in a way that the future of the franchise is based on those two dudes going out and getting Russians. They're going to get all the touches. They're going to have all the opportunity. If we believe in those offensive lines, then they're going to there. Oh, it's a plus 2,36.

And now. So we need Henry for 21 yards, Barkley for 19.

Let's do that. That's happening. Come on. Before they change the odds.

Put it on the card. The Shield Special. Put it on the card.

All right, so we're going to add that one plus 2.36. And then there's some most rushing yards that I thought were interesting. Henry plus 3.20, Barkley plus 1.55. The Barkley plus 155. The Barkley plus 155, I thought was a little delectable. Gibbs plus 550, but Montgomery is probably going to be back, so I don't know how many carries he's going to get. But the rushing receiving one I really liked was McLaren plus 8:50 for most receiving yards this weekend. Some garbage time stuff, one long one. House seems dubious.

Well, I like it. The I don't know how deep they're going to try and go. It would have to be like a pitch and catch thing. What receiver would beat that? But that's the thing, right? Look at the scripts for the other teams. To me, it might be Xavier worthy. I honestly think worthy is going to get a ton of touches.

60 yards?

What do you have, Joe? Yeah, I have one of my best bets of the weekend is McClore in over 68 and a half receiving yards. I mean, they're going to have to move the ball. He is by far their go-to target. The lines don't have a number one corner. The lions don't play the type of defense where they're going to put a safety over top of him. They're going to say, We can be aggressive and play man coverage. I had McLaurin last week, and it was fruitful. He had it very early in that game. You're right, two of these games are in bad weather, potentially Buffalo and Philadelphia, and maybe even Kansas City. So you get the weather aspect of it being easier to throw the ball. So yeah, I'm in on the McLaurin over.

Plus 850, most rushing, most receiving for the weekend. I think it's worth that little dabble.

I'm on that. Yes. Hale, baby.

Then the last one. Washington plus four and a half plus 182. Is it worth a dabble?

I'm out. You get your answer from Sheil.

You have the lions in the other T's at what? Minus two and a half, right?

It's like a very hairy middle, which is why you probably don't do it. If you take the lions, you're just rooted for the lions.

Yeah, It might conflict you, but if you didn't have the other bet, I would say, again, Jaden Daniels rule. If it's over a field goal, why not?

See, I've never seen House do this before with gambling, where he doesn't want to jinks his own team. It's really interesting.

The divisional round of the effing playoff has been 25 years. What are you talking about? It's not surprising at all. I haven't been in this position in forever.

Okay.

You only have a few weeks left. I mean, why? If you're feeling it, go with it. It's not like week three.

I'm just going to play my McLaren over. I'm going to be satisfied. You made a great case. We'll play McLaren over. It's fine.

All right. Do we like Josh Allen, Touchdown for a plus one on five or no? Not really? Okay. All right.

I think a decent chance he'll do it.

It's time. The Million Dollar Picks, round two here with Joe House and Shio Capadeya. We are up 1.867 million for the season. We took last week off. We're coming back strong. First bet, an eight-point tease on FanDuel with the Chiefs minus eight and a half, the Eagles minus six and a half, and the Lions minus eight and a half. We're teasing all them down. It is even odds on FanDuel. We are breaking the Raheem Palmer rule. We're teasing the Eagles through the zero I can see him almost having a convulsion right now, but Eagles to plus one and a half, the other two just to win. That's plus 100. We're going to put 300K on that. Next bet. The Ravens minus one and a half. Sheil was nervous about this one. House and I just think it's no disrespect to the great people of Buffalo. Bad matchup. Wrong team, wrong time. Ravens minus one and a half. We are putting 250K 50K on that one. Then we're going to dabble on some stuff. Some 10K. Mahomes, four and a half runs over plus 110. Saquon and Henry, Saquon, 18, A half yards over longest run.

With Henry, longest run, 20 and a half plus 236. That's red shield?

I think so.

Each bus runs were good.

It's a great one.

Stafford-strowd, both to throw one interception as the road quarterback in potentially bad weather games, plus 195. So we're doing McLaurin over 68 and a half receiving yards? One dude, two small McLaurin bets?

Yes.

Okay. Two-thumb 60 and a half. Mcclorent have the most receiving yards of the weekend, plus 850, where there's two games outdoors. He's one of the only ones indoors. And what do you want to put in the parlay? Is it 25K or 10K? I mean, not the parlay, it's the prop bets.

10k is a good number. That's how people play them.

10k. That's good. Those are the million dollar picks for round two. Sheil, happy gambling. Good luck with the Eagles. House, happy gambling. Good luck with the Washington, whatever your name is now.

Hell, yes. Hell, yes.

Hey, Al. All right. Thanks, guys. Must be 21 plus in President Select States for Kansas and affiliate with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President DC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 Gambler or visit rg-help. Com. Call 1-88-789-7777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp. Org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma. Org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support, Massachusetts, or call 1-8778 Hope, NY, or text Hope, NY in New.