Transcript of Believe in Darnold, Burrow’s Playoff Shadow, Week 18 Madness and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal

It's the Bill Simmons podcast. We're going live on a Sunday night with Cousin Sal. Week 17 was a little crazy, not too crazy. Week 18 is going to be crazy, and it's all coming up next. We're also brought to you by the Ringer podcast Network, where I put up a brand new episode of the Rewatchables. Every Monday night, including tomorrow night, we are doing Friday Night Lights, The Movie. I tweeted about this from the Rewatchables account because it's on Netflix, actually, for the next couple of days. But 20th year anniversary of this movie in 2024. It's in the running for one of the best football movies ever. Some people think it might be first. We're going to talk about that and a lot more on the podcast that's going up Monday night. You can watch that on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well. You can watch all the clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. Coming up, Cousin Sal and I, live Sunday night. We're doing it. Let's bring in Pro Jam.

We just watched Washington, Atlanta, and you lost your wise wager, which was you were 13 and 2 for the season.

You had Washington 24 and a half under, which It seemed like when Atlanta was about to score in the last minute, you were going to win it. Then Raheem Morris is like, How many timeouts can I take into overtime? Turned out he had the wrong answer, and Atlanta blows it. Roller coaster ride of the game. Washington makes the play Atlanta is down in a lot of trouble. This is one of my favorite podcasts to do. Heading into week 18, we have all our playoff scenario. I was trying to guess the lines, but Atlanta is going to be kicking themselves all week.

Yeah, I was all... Well, first of all, I have too much shit going on. I had the 24 and a half, but I also have Tampa Bay to win the South. So I'm rooting against Atlanta, but rooting for Atlanta to stop Washington and rooting for Rahim Morris to get his brain out of his ass. Those skip timeouts. It's just, of course, you want 22 seconds with one timeout is better than seven seconds and two timeouts. And then he takes one before. And then you have a tired defense, except for one drive. They were on the field the entire second half. Start calling your timeouts then, too. Get them a little fresh so that Dane Daniels isn't running for seven yards. But yeah, it was congratulations. We have a lot of Washington fans, friends in our club here, but I don't know. A weird win, a weird win for sure.

Well, our favorite Washington fan is Chang because we're on a text with him, and Chang gets so mad during these games that... I told him I would do a Patreon subscription for Chang's text during every Washington game. He was so mad. It was a lot of, Fuck this team. I hope the guy makes the field goal. We're losers.

He's out of control. I think he's going to send poison noodles over to Dan Quinn or something. I don't know what he's capable of.

So the time out. So they got They got basically to midfield. There's 40 seconds left or 35 seconds left, whatever it was. They had two timeouts left. It was interesting because braided, who I thought was good today during the Vikings Greenback game, he was talking about the exact timeout scenario at the end of the first half. He was saying how when he'd like to do it, if he had two timeouts left with under two minutes left, he always thought of it as take one time out in that one minute to two-minute mark, take the second one somewhere between 30 and a minute and then saved that third one for the kicker. And I was thinking about that as I was watching Atlanta just completely mangled the same situation and just basically take two timeouts in the 12 seconds left in the game. They didn't do that at all. I think if they call time out, I think they would have kicked a field goal and scored.

Well, here's the thing. Everything's situational, right? So Brady's theory is right. Add to it. You got a rookie quarterback there on the road. Might want to just get him a couple of plays, stop the clock anyway, if you're not sure. And you have a kicker who can't make it from 35. So you want to get it closer than you even got it. So everything points to calling a time out with 35 seconds left, and they didn't do it.

For some reason, I was thinking about you during this whole fourth quarter because you've been so hot and you've had some luck with these wagers. I've been hot on million dollar pick. We're doing great. This had gotten to the point where I was like, Atlanta is going to somehow win this game 27, 24, and we're going to be like, How did Sal do it again? How did he pull this out? Atlanta is driving down and see what's going to happen. Then the other way, Washington had the ball, and they're driving down, they're driving down, and it felt like they were setting up for the, They're going to go for it to win the game on fourth and one and not get it. Then Atlanta would either play for the tie or do whatever.

I think if I could speak broadly, and I think you had Atlanta plus four and a half on something you were saying before the podcast.

I was upset.

There's favorites winning and covering, and then there's favorites winning and covering like Cincinnati did and like Washington did today. How about everyone in week 17? That's what I'm saying. There's all that, and then there's crazy covers like this where neither Cincinnati or Washington deserved it, except for some craziness that happened in overtime and some That's what I'm saying. That Brad brain farts from coaches.

Bigger picture, the favorites were 14 and 1 in week 17, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, and today. That's why we're not too upset.

That's why we have our chin up there.

Well, yeah, there were some very good money line, parlay, all kinds of plays. 14 and one at this point of the season for favorites. If I had said to you heading into this week, somebody's going 14 and one, favorites are underdogs. I just would have assumed underdogs, right? This is right the time of the year when weird shit happens left and right, but that's not what happened. Atlanta, who's somehow still alive, it feels like they went to Pennex, what, three weeks too late? Four weeks too late. Even though he's up and down, he's still way better than Cousins is.

I was going to send this to you, and I'm like, Maybe this is an overreaction. But when he was flying in the first half, I was like, Man, if they had put him in a month ago, they might be fighting for the one seat. Maybe that's a little strong. Because of their schedule? Yeah, Yeah, but for sure, they might have had this NFC South locked up.

Yeah, they would be at 10 wins already. I think it's fair to say Cousins probably cost them 3-4 wins by being unable to move. What's weird, though, We're in this weird situation where Atlanta... Pennex, I think, is the starting quarterback. I don't know if he's ever going to be an all pro or anything, but he's clearly pretty good. He's at least on that, I think, has a chance to be on that Bo'Nicks level, maybe one-notch higher. He's older. But you also can't praise Atlanta for this because they spent $100 million on Kirk Cousin and destroyed their salary cap. If you're talking the GM, Terry Fontana, who Lombardi always used to make fun, I'm really like, Terry, great Pennex pick. You almost can't say that because the pick was so illogical when he did it. I was thinking today, imagine if they had taken... If they had spent that free agent Cousins money on one other defensive player, two defensive players, whatever. Instead, they put all of that. This is what happens. You end up losing this game in OT because your defense can't do anything. This is what we were saying in April when they took Pennex.

If you're going to spend all that money on Cousins, use the eighth pick on a defensive player, or if you know you're going to take Pennex, use the free agent money on a defensive player, and they didn't do either.

It's a little different what I'm about to bring up, but it's what San Francisco. You really want to praise everything they did after what they spent on Trey Lance. It wasn't money, but But draft capital and might have won the Super Bowl if you had some position plugged in on defense against Kansas City, and now you're paying the price. But yeah, there's some odd stuff going on. I know you're a quarterback. I feel like you need to see two or three years out of these guys In Sam Darnold's case, seven years, but at least two or three.

Sam Darnold, the most emotional Twitter video during the season we've seen all year. Sam Darnold coming back late to the Vikings locker room, and it turned into a sports movie scene. I was waiting for explosions in the sky to play in the background. Playoff picture, and we'll talk about it. There's so much shit to go through.

I feel naked not knowing the sky. You and I love the playoff reschedule, right?

Well, I want to guess this.

We love the week 18, and we're like seven-year-olds waiting for Santa to come down the chimney. I keep refreshing. I don't see anything. I see the Jimmy Carter, Jake Paul fight is rescheduled, but I don't see anything on week 18 yet. This is terrible.

We're on this text thread with our cousin and a whole bunch of people. And anytime a super old celebrity dies, it's always like, what was the cause of death? And we do Jimmy Carter, my favorite president, by the way. But anytime it's 100, what was the cause of death? Anyway, NFC playoff picture. Washington is at least the seventh seed. Possibility they can sneak in the sixth seed, but Green Bay would have to lose to Chicago. But we're looking at two seed Philly versus seven seed Washington, which I'm not happy about it from Washington. Three, six is Ram's Green Bay. I'm super happy if I'm Green Bay playing the Rams the way their offenses look. Four, five would be Tampa, Minnesota, which is an awesome game. Or Atlanta, Minnesota, if something funky happens a week 18. Afc, it looks like we're going to have Buffalo versus Denver, unless Denver completely chokes the big kids, Carson Wentz, and we'll go in all those scenarios in a second. Baltimore against the Chargers, and then Houston, Pittsburgh. I didn't tell you I was going to do this, you're going to be mad, but I already made guesses for the round one schedule, and I'm going to throw this at you.

I don't do that yet.

No, I'm doing it.

All right. Well, I think we agree on the Shakeies game. There's a lot of shaky quarterbacks that belong in the Shakeies game, but I think we're on the same page with that.

Well, we texted about the Shakeies game, which if you haven't seen our listener on our pod before, it's the first on the Saturday of round one. Our knockout league that we're in, the loser used to have to buy pizza for everybody else for the first game, and we would do it at Shaquies in Santa Monica, which we made plenty of jokes about. Is it still open or no?

I think they closed it after we stopped going. I think we were probably the only ones there.

We were the last thing. Anyway, Pittsburgh, Houston is the most... I would say that's a minus 1,200 favorite to be the Shakeies game. With the way he Houston's look with Russell Wilson, I don't see how it's not the Shakeies game.

I'm trying to think who else would be. All right, you're going to give me all of them? Go ahead.

Well, these are my guesses. You tell me. I'll rip through them. You tell me.

There's a Monday game in there. You got them all. You're right. Go ahead.

So Saturday night is going to be Amazon. And I think that's Green Bay Rams, and they keep it in LA. Al Michael's is super happy. It's like a 35-minute drive for him. Amazon in LA. Amazon is in LA. So I was going Green Bay Rams for that. Then Sunday, Okay. Denver Buffalo, the Chargers versus Baltimore, and then Washington, Philly as the Sunday night game. But you could flip that and you could make Washington, Philly, the Fox game with braided, and then Chargers, Ravens, Sunday Night. Then my last prediction, Bucks versus the Vikings in Tampa Bay, Monday Night, Monday Night Football.

On Monday? Yeah. What are your thoughts? The only thing with that is... I'm not ready. I feel like I'm not ready for this.

I know. That's why I didn't prepare. I tell you to prep. I wanted to throw this at you.

Well, here's what could throw it off. I really think the Chargers want that five seed now. I think they're going to fight for it. They're in a good spot if they get that five seat. Of course, you want to go to Houston now. By the way, if they get by that, I know the Chief, we're going to have to praise them. We have to. But that's not a bad deal for Harbaugh. They played him twice. They lost by two. They lost by seven. What a What a thing that would be for Harbaugh to go into Kansas City and win. I think that's the ideal spot for the Chargers. So I think that would throw off a little. The only thing I would say about a Saturday night, I think they like an outdoor game there. They had the Chief's Dolphins, so I'm not sure what that would... I know that doesn't agree with Al's habits, but what would it be?

We got to look out for Al. So Chargers, to get the five seed, the Chargers would have to beat the Raiders, and Pittsburgh would have to lose to Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. And that's the path. I was going to do this later, but I'd rather just throw this at you right now. I know the Ravens aren't going to tank week 18. But if you're the Ravens, just fundamentally, looking at this big picture, we're trying to make the Super Bowl. If you're the Ravens, would you rather be the five seed or the three seed? Because if I'm the three seed, I have a home game against almost definitely the chargers. It's either the chargers or Pittsburgh home game. Then round two, I'm going to Buffalo if I'm the three seed. I'm going to Buffalo unless Buffalo shockingly loses. If I'm the five seed, I play Houston, and I'll be favored, and I should beat Houston. Then unless there's an upset, I'm going to KC for round 2 who hasn't played a meaningful game in a month. If your goal is to make the Super Bowl, we always talk about this, I'd rather catch KC in that round 2 game when they're a little rusty.

I know is going to try to win. I know it's better to be at home, but you could argue it's a better path for them to be the 5-seed.

Well, first of all, we'll go over the lines in a second, but maybe this will clear it up. There's so much speculation. The Saturday games are out, and there's two of them.

Were you right? You had guesses on this.

I had one right. It's Browns Ravens and Bengals stealers. The Ravens are first. The Ravens are 130. I don't know why they're doing this, actually. It doesn't benefit. The Ravens are 1:30. The bangles stealers are five. These are Pacific times. If the Ravens win and they should, then the stealers could lose, and the chargers do get that five. And we're talking all different things here.

Well, you have for the Stewards-Bengles game, bangles trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. Yeah. Stealers trying to either be five or six, but you want to be five, so that game actually becomes meaningful. So that's probably why they did it.

Oh, I guess so, right. They would still try. Yeah. I Is it so meaningful that you would want to not rest your starters for the following week? That's always a thing. I don't know. When we think it's meaningful, it usually isn't.

Well, to me, who is the worst playoff team to you other than the AFC 7 seed. Because I think you could make a case it's the Rams. And the Rams are going to be the three seed. But if I'm Green Bay, I'm 100% delighted to play the Rams in round one. The Rams can't score 20 points anymore, and they I thought dominated by the Cardinals on Saturday night. I can't believe we had to sweat out that LA-LA parlay like that. It ended up coming down to Kyla Murray, whipping a 130-mile-an-hour pass off his tight end's head that bounced up in the air for an interception. But the Rams did nothing offensively to win that game. I would want to play them over anyone except the AFC7 seat, I think.

They are a bizarre team. I mean, it was four weeks ago, they scored 44 against Buffalo. Then The next three weeks, they score 44 combined.

And Cooper Cupp- It feels like they ran out of gas.

Cupp commits mass murder on fantasy owners all over the nation. I think they did run out of gas. I don't know, McVay, that was some questionable calls by him, but you're right. Kyler, he did his thing. He got too excited. He's now 13 and 29 straight up in November, December games and one in 17 in the division.

Jesus. Rudy just texted us that... You know what? I did a shitload of research for this podcast. I really thought I was prepared. Somehow I missed this. Green Bay is not guaranteed to be the sixth seed. It could actually be Washington because Washington wins a tiebreaker. So if both of them win, Washington is going to be the sixth seed. I thought Washington needed it. I thought Washington gets it if they went.

Oh, yeah, because they have the win now, right? They're the same record. Yeah. All right. So who's going to try?

Well, if you're Washington, first of all, they're We're going to have a lot of fans at that Rams game if it's Washington at the Rams. But if you're Green Bay, that's a disaster. People didn't know how much that Minnesota game meant today. It actually meant a shitload because it's difference between potentially playing the Rams or playing Philly, who's the two-seed.

And you're going to have a 13-win team as a wild car. I don't think it's ever happened before.

The Vikings. Let's talk about that, Vikings. The Packers game.

Good one.

A lot of people love the packers. It turned into an everybody believes in us, nobody believes in us situation, which I didn't fully know on Thursday, but by the time we got to Sunday, I was betting on the Vikings. That line was moving. That line was the most erratic line of the year. It was minus one and a half, plus one and a half, even, back to minus one and a half. By game time, it was even, which is, I think, three times this year, we've had an even line at game time.

We know now that I guess they have something to play for with the six seed, five seed. But really, compared to Minnesota, they didn't have as much to play for. As much. And Minnesota is fighting for the one seed. They have the better record. They were one and a half point favorite when we did guess the lines. Then it moved to Green Bay, like you said, as favorite. Then Minnesota settled in. I'm like, I'm staying away. They gave us six free money line wins going into Sunday, which was insane. But why is everybody taking the packers here? And I can't do a lap because they won by two points. But I think they did. It was perfect what they did because I think all these NFC North teams are able to catch up. They're eventually going to get to 25, 28, 30 points. But the defense played great for three quarters. They really did. Flores had them, like Cashman, Shaq Griffin, Van Ginkle, They're all locked and stepped. And KOC did a great job with 220 left. Bleeding the clock, we'll talk about it. He did it better than anybody's done it, really.

Yeah, he's Coach of the Year. He has to be. It's crazy that Harba completely He completely rejuvenated the chargers, made chicken... Hold on, I'm going to get this right. Do it. Made chicken salad out of chicken shit. Good. Yeah, I did it. I nailed it. He's not going to win Coach of the Year. You think where that team was last year, all the stuff he did for them. They had some injuries, too. It wasn't like it was the easiest season. He has no chance.

The quarterback went out. Yeah. J. J. Mcarthur was supposed to be a guy.

Well, so KFC, I think he gets it. The packers, you get their five losses, two against the Alliance, two against the Vikings, one against the Eagles. This was everybody's Super Bowl sleeper. It'd be nice if they beat one of the top three teams in their division conference once. I'm also not positive. I really like Jordan Love, and I think he's good in spurts. I've watched the game that they played today, I feel like six times in the last year and a half, where they suck. He misses a couple of throws. They're a little erratic. All of a sudden, they're behind. Then they do this furious rally with a quarter left or half a quarter left. Then the score, they played this exact Minnesota game happened already in the first month of the season where they were way behind, rallied back, and the final score, they lost by two. This was not a two-point loss. Minnesota dominated the game. Field goal kicker missed two field goals. I just felt like this was a double figures win. Now, it will say they won by two.

Yeah, I I agree. Yeah. Then they pressured him the whole game, and Green Bay couldn't really pressure Darnold. That seemed like the difference. The one thing I'll say is I wonder if Watson really makes a big difference for this offense.

I think he does.

Yeah. Him not being there, I don't know, with some nice spots in there. Jaden Reid is a fun player, but he'll disappear for quarters at a time. He had a one-reception, five-yard game a couple of weeks ago, and today it took him a while to get going.

But I was very impressed. I thought it might be a double tight-end game for them. Oh, yeah. Just being more physical. They were... Like, braided was really bullish on them riding Jacobs, and he's comparing McCory Dylan and all these different runningbacks. But the Vikes played great, and they've been underestimated all year. I really regret on Thursday not going all in on them because I think they're really good. I think they could absolutely beat Detroit. I could absolutely see them in the Super Bowl. Watching them today, I was thinking, because I felt that same way watching that Cincinnati game, and I had Denver plus seven and a in that one, so I actually ended up hitting it. But since he's so scary when they have the ball and they just need eight yards or it's third and eight, it's third and six, it's second and 10, and they have those two receivers, and it just feels like any time Boro He can hit somebody for eight yards on and out, or you can hit them down the sidelines or across or whatever. I think Minnesota has the same thing. Those two receivers, when they really need to complete a pass, they can find one of those guys, it seems like.

Sam Donnell doesn't It doesn't seem like he's going to blow a game. The coach doesn't seem like he's going to blow a game. The defense seems like it's going to play good enough for long enough. I don't think going forward, are they going to be an underdog at any point by more than two points or three points? I don't think you can make it.

Who would have been on Detroit? Not in the NFC?

No, no way.

Well, we'll see. You should have said today they should have been at least a one and a half or two-point favorite, and the market said otherwise. I just think people, Sam Darn on three years in the Jets, two in Carolina. He was on the Niners last year. I just think people are slow to come around on this, but he's been doing this all year, really consistently. I said last week to you, I felt like when I really needed to make a play, and that come from behind game last week. I was like, I think he's going to do it. I believe he's going to make the play. Felt the same way in this game today. I just felt like he was going to come through. He has one shaky throw a game, but I think you could say that about literally any quarterback in the league.

I don't think it's fluky at this point. I think we can move on to the next argument with, Oh, JJ McCarthy, keep him or trade him. You're not going to have results like Sam Arnold put out there. It just feels different from the team two, three years ago, whatever it was, where Cousins won every game by one score. It's just something about it like, Yeah, this guy fits in this offense, and it's going to work for a little bit.

Yeah, Rahim, not Rahim Morris, guy who took two timeouts into the overtime. Our friend Rahim, who's on the Ringer Sunday pregame. He had a good tweet about this one-score win-loss record, which has become a really fun way when we talk about teams after the fact or during the season. Is this real? Is this not real? The theory is, if you're 8:1, 9:1, 10:1, and one-score games, there's something fluky about that. We've talked about this a lot for years. There was that Cousins Vikings here a couple of years ago when they just had crazy luck in one-score games, but we knew they weren't good. I don't feel that way at all about this Vikings team. I think they're legitimately good, and I actually think they shouldn't have been in as many one-score games as they were because they just had these dumb games that all of a sudden in the last five minutes, the other team scored whatever. To me, they're not. To me, they're a legitimate, awesome contender. I think you could make the case. I think I would bet against them against any NFC team.

Wait, say that again.

You would do what? I think-Chicken shit. No, I screwed up. I think I would bet on them against any NFC team. I like them the most.

Yeah, I think so, too. It's really tough. That coach just showed me so much. When 2 minutes, 20 seconds, Green Bay has three timeouts. Almost anybody just runs it into the line three times, and you have to treat it like you're losing the game at that point. That's exactly what he did. The next four plays, three of them were throws, and none really liked to Jefferson or Addison It was all just nice plays, but they made it nice and easy, and Darnold just so comfortable in that situation.

Yeah, and the second down, it was second and nine. Jefferson was cutting across, and Darnal just whipped it. It was a great throw, but it was probably four receivers in the league can get that extra split second of a step and also make the catching traffic. Then the game ender, they ran the classic fake, Everybody runs to the left. Oh, the circles around to the right, lofts over the screen pass. It's one of the best place. I almost turned into Collinsworth when I watched that. I just love that. I just love when teams do that.

Bill, there's only one Lamar Jackson, but there's another one here with Michael Pennix and maybe even a third one with Jaden Daniels. The referees are Lamar Jackson. Everyone's Lamar Jackson.

I can't believe the JJ McCarthy thing is even a question at this point. No. There's No way. Darnold is their quarterback now. This is done. It's a wrap. It's like this is braided bloodsout multiplied by 17. Braided bloodsout, even heading into the playoffs, was still an argument. There's no argument anymore. Whether they keep McCarthy for a year and just keep him as a backup and then figure out what to do. But considering the quarterback class is pretty shaky beyond the top two, I feel like they could get a mid-first-round pick for him or late-first rounder or high second rounder. That's somewhere in the 15 to 35 range, right, for him?

Well, the best part is, there's teams like the Giants dropping out of the top two quarterback slot, right? Yeah. Can't wait to talk about that. Who may have to trade up to get a JJ McCarthy.

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Bonus issued as non-metral but bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook. Fender. Com. Gail in a problem, call 1-800 Gamble or visit rg-help. Com. All right, switching gears. There's some big questions left. Can the Bengals make the playoffs is one of them, which I think everybody wants just as football fans because Burro has been so great this year. The scenario is this. They have to be Pittsburgh. Denver has to lose to Carson Wentz and the Chiefs, and the Dolphins have to lose to that Hot Garbage Jets team, who was just a complete train wreck of an embarrassment until Tyrod Taylor came in in fourth quarter. Now, granted, it's garbage time. Buffalo, they won the game. It's a wrap. Tyrod Taylor, all of a sudden, it was a little like the Panics Cousins thing. He could move around. He was making plays. I think they'd be crazy not to start him next week unless they... If they want to protect their pick, which is probably top seven, top eight at this point, you play Rodgers because he's a sunk cost at this point. But if they play Tyrod Taylor, I could see them beating Miami.

Miami was It doesn't seem like two is going to play next week. Cleveland's so bad, and Thompson Robinson is so bad. Miami, they had no choice but to win that game, but the Jets could beat them. I'm trying to look at- Then it comes down to Carson wins.

Yeah. Obviously, they put all these games together. Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Riders, Dolphins, Jets. Those are the late afternoon games. Yeah. I think you're right. I have no idea with Tua. You and I were like, What the hell is going on? Jj, John's or Scampchee, big Dolphins Give us a heads up about Tua. We don't find out until Thursday. He may not play again. So you might end up with a garbage match like that. But it was so fun watching Tyrod being better than A-Rod. Really, really great.Unbling.Right..

Rogers was just horrible. I did a 13-pointer, which I think I lost three legs of. It was my one losing bet today other than this last one at the end. Rogers was so bad, and it was so hopeless from the moment it was like, I don't know, 12-0, 19-0. It was just that you just knew it was over. It doesn't seem like the teammates like them that much. Wilson, there's stuff about, If Rodgers is back next year, please trade me. That stuff is starting to float around. It'd be really funny if Taylor came in and the Jets were Austin next week.

Let me read a couple of Roger's things. First of all, he goes in there. He's supposed to go for his 500-touchdown pass. I'm like, Oh, this is going to suck. Not that they'd stop the game in Buffalo But he's going to get 500. Devante Adams is like, I'm playing. I want to be there. I want to catch the 500. I'm like, Shit. Instead, he sets the sack record. He's the most sack quarterback of all time. My favorite of all, it was early in the first quarter, maybe middle of first quarter, third and one, driving right to left. He rolls right, and he's got nothing but daylight. And Romo even is like, run it. And Romo doesn't do that. He does a lot of what people might think are annoying things, but he definitely blurted it out when he didn't mean to. He had 15 yards of daylight, maybe too scared or whatever to take off. He fires the ball at his receiver's shins and then yells at the receiver. The receiver is like, Oh, I'm sorry. I wasn't paying attention. Me and the other receivers are watching, thought you'd walk the ball into the end zone here.

But a 1.2 QBR today, the lowest QBR in a game since Davis Mills' 0.8 in 2021. Good job by you, Aaron Rodgers.

You ruined Peter Schrager's season.

I didn't do it.

Our guy Schraegs. There was a tweet that had over 3 million views at the time of this taping by somebody on Twitter named StakeFriend. He said, Jets getting Aaron Rodgers is like, finally banging your high school crush when she's 40 and has four kids. That's great. It's over 3 million views at this point. It lost in how bad Rodgers has been, is how bad Jeff Ulbrech's been as the Jets interim coach. Yeah. Today, they had 16 penalties for 120 yards. That makes the Patriots look like well-behaved contract. He's horrible. One thing we've learned this year is that the interim coach isn't necessarily this magic elixir because the bears are way worse. The Jets, I think if they had had Salah, at least with Salah, their defense was better.

We had the clogger. We were enamored with the clogger for a minute, and then that went to shit, ironically.

Spenser rather. Ironically. Hard to say with the clogger. But yeah, rough Jets season. I feel bad for the Jets fans. One thing with the Bengals.

I think they're about 16 to one if you put those three possibilities together to make the playoffs.

If you're KC, do you lose intentionally to Denver? Is the question somebody texted me today that I thought was intriguing. I don't think teams lose intentionally in the NFL. I guess you could play like your third string QB and not give a shit. But they're just much better off if Denver is the seventh seed than Cincinnati, I think.

Well, let's think about this. Wouldn't they want Cincinnati to play Buffalo? I think they want Buffalo out, right? They're not going to play both those teams.

You're saying so beat Denver to try to get Cincinnati in the 17th century.

Yeah, I think so. You're not going against Cincinnati in the first round. So you're going against one of those two teams. I think they'll slap Cincinnati around if they have to go to Arrowhead. I mean, that's a flawed team. We like rooting for them. I think you could have it both ways, like we said. We could talk about how bad they are now they can't get out of their own way and also not want to meet them in the first round.

Their defense is pretty awful. It was interesting because that game feels like it happened 100 years ago, and it was yesterday, but I don't think Sean Payton covered himself in glory yesterday with some of the calls, some of the clock management, just in general. It's something I've noticed over and over again with him, where people seem to think he's This is what we were talking about with Kevin O'Cano earlier, but instead, it just feels like... I don't know. Were you happy with how he coached yesterday?

No, I don't know. I was a little confused, but I think People wanted him to go for a two-point conversion at the end of the regulation.

Well, he needed the tie, right?

Yeah. So they needed the tie as good as a win.

Tie was good as a win, so it didn't make sense to go for the win because in overtime, a tie would have won it for them.

Also, bangles kicker He was probably factoring that in that, too.

So we'll go to overtime. And Chase Brown got hurt.

And Chase Brown got hurt. And also, they went three and out, Cincinnati. So they had the ball, Denver, with a chance to win with a field goal.

They did twice. They had two series in overtime, and they had that second and nine, or it was second and seven. They ran the wide receiver screen. The guy got tackled for two in the first series. Bo'nicks tried to throw it deep for some reason, didn't get it. It was weird. I just felt like they could have run the ball on since the all day. They ran the ball for five years as a carry. It was a bad loss.

I did, too. I felt the same. It was a very similar game to tonight's. B. John Robinson could have run the ball, and they could have done that. I thought it was one of the luckiest covers of 2024. Maybe tonight changed that. But I don't know. Cincinnati is a weird team. Burrows great. Like you said, they have that pitch and catch thing going for seven yards. Higgins is going to get Juan Soto money next year. Good for him.

Hopefully from the Patriots.

There you go.

Mvp rates, at least when I checked it this couple of hours ago, Allen was minus 300, Lamar was plus 250, and Burrow and Barkley were 50 to one. The thinking was if Burrow somehow got the seven seed for the bangles, he has to be in the MVP consideration. I just don't agree.

Burrow is 30 to one now.

Oh, he's 30 to one? He went back to 30. I don't think you can't lose eight times in a season to be the MVP. That's absurd.

It's dead money. Yeah, that's a waste. I think it's got to be Josh. I it's fair to say, all right, whoever gets the two seed, it can't be Mahomes. His numbers don't support it, right? So it's got to be the Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, and give it to whoever has a two seed at this point.

It's tough. There's some stat stuff that's a little more favorable for Lamar. I test it was a little more favorable for Josh. I would say the infrastructure of the roster is you'd probably want Baltimore's a little bit more. Buffalo had a lot more uncertainty heading into the season. I don't really know.

Does that just crack your brain when you hear Josh Allen broke Thurman Thomas's record for the Bills' Touchdown Rushes? For someone who watched football and loved it in college in the '90s, what the... Really? He really did already. That's spectacular.

I mean, right now, and I don't know if there's a 100% right answer. I like when people get so upset about it. We've had some NBA MVP, things like this, too. Right now, I I think it could really come down to something as stupid as Baltimore's five losses and Buffalo's three, because it's really close. It's just like Buffalo's had a better... They've had a better team. I've been a little more impressed with their season. I think both guys are equally important. He doesn't have anything like Derek Henry. He doesn't have the coaching infrastructure that the Ravens had. Even though McDermott is a top seven or eight coach, the Ravens have been doing this forever. I would just have slight edge to Josh. So he's Does the head-to-head matter? Well, how about this? So Baltimore beat him 35 to 10 in week four. So that's a case for LeBron. I don't know. I don't know the answer.

So Rudy, shut up. We've been doing this for 37 years. We don't need your help. No, it's a good question, but I think here's what matters more. They beat the one seat. Baltimore didn't. They were a total away from meeting the one seat.

They had the only KC win.

Yeah. They have more wins, and they beat the one seat, and you're not giving it to Mahomes.

Another off this off Josh Allen. I won our keeper fantasy league today.

Yeah, congratulations. I saw that. Thank you. Easily, right?

It's an emotional time for me and my fans because we had Joe Burrow. We've had this league four years. I had Joe Burrow, year one. We had this rule where you could keep him for a maximum of four years. He's been with my team the whole time. Oh, he's gone. Then he really came through in the last game, and it meant a lot to me and my fans to watch him do that for my fake fantasy team and his fake team, it's 41.1 points. The question, though, about fantasy, is it possible to win a league if you didn't have Alan Lamar, Burrow, or Baker this year? It It felt like you had to have one of those four guys. Who did Tony have?

Well, he said Barkley, right? Did you mention Barkley?

No, I'm saying one of those four quarterbacks.

Oh, I see. Yeah.

Because it was unusual because normally, we always talk about our quarterbacks don't matter that much in I know. And then this year, who did Tony have in our knockout league? In Lamar Jackson.

Yeah.

I would love to know, percentage of league won by those four quarterbacks has to be like 80 %.

Yeah, it's off topic, but I did see 50 % of all teams that had Barkley made the finals, at least. I did see some ESPN stat, but that's Barkley. I know you're talking quarterbacks here. You're going to bid for... How much will you bid? So I know now. Burrow?

I need Burro. Well, I'm going to have to figure- I got them back. I can see it.

I know. I need Joe.

Four more years, Joe. I asked Craig Horbeck from the Ringer fantasy show about who were the guys you had to have this year that seemed to be around the most titles. He said the guys that tripled your odds of making the finals were JJ Jefferson, Chase, Ammon Ross, St. Brown, Saquon, Gibbs, Lamar, James Connor, and Brock Bowers, who was wasted on my shitty team in our other league. Well, just like whatever you paid for them or wherever you drafted them, whatever the return was, was way higher than what you got. But Brock Bowers was a good example. If you had him, he's going to be the throwing tight end next year.

Forget that. I'm looking for him for... Well, they don't have him, but he should maybe win MVP. I mean, that junk squad of quarterbacks have been throwing to him.

He's sending records. He's made Aiden O'Cano look like a possible keeper. It's crazy. Maybe they don't need a QB. Oh, that's it. That's a good pivot. The Giants. We have the Raiders who win two games in a row and completely knock themselves out of a possible Sanders or Kam Warrant I got to say, I didn't like Kim Ward leaving the bowl game at halftime.

No? No, I didn't like that. Nobody's going to care.

Nobody's going to care. I didn't like it. I just don't think Drake May would have done that in North Carolina. I think he would have stayed. I think he would have played both halves.

All right. But no team is going to care. But go ahead.

We had the Drew Lock game today. You could feel it immediately. The Colts were in a coma. I don't know what happened to them. This murdered, I think, 80% of the teases and parlays that people made today because they'd already... Well, they had to. They made all their bets that they'd already won. It's like, what do I do on Sunday? All right, I'll throw the Colts in something. And the Giants went. So now the Giants are four, Pats are one, Tennessee's two, Cleveland's three, and most important, the Pats are one. I was going nuts.

Why are you going nuts?

I was going nuts.

What are you going to do with it?

We're going to trade down. We're going to get a fucking haul. I want to make that Carolina bears trade. Let's do that. Let's get like, move back seven spots, get somebody else's first, get a player, get a second. Let's fucking cash that thing in. I'm so excited.

All right. This weekend went great if you have your quarterback. Well, you're not out on May, right? You have your quarterback. So now you're going to trade it and you're going to get something. I don't know. I feel like... I say good for the Giants. I really do. I don't love the tanking talk. I think it's a bad word. It should only be used for the NBA. This is one of the reasons, many reasons, The NFL is infinitely better. But half these guys are playing hard because they don't even know if they're going to be on the team next year. Like, Monleague Nabors is the only one safe, and Drew Locke gave him probably his best game of the year so far. So good for the Giants. Learn your paycheck. I know it's It's easy to burn down the fledgling local tavern and collect on the insurance, but guys out there are trying. I'd go for that every time.

Counter. This giant season was so depressing that it was hilarious that it was like, All right, we're the number one pick, just two more games. And then all of a sudden, they have a fun three hours and completely ruin it. But you're right. This is the difference to football and basketball is you can't really tank in a sport with non-guaranteed contracts where they change half the roster every year.

I'm not saying the GMs, the front office, and the players are on a different wavelength, I think. It's not like that in any other sport. I think it's because of what I said. Half these guys aren't going to be Giants next year. They're just trying to put together. You think Tracy Jr is definitely going to be resigned by the Giants? No. They're going to try their asses off.

If the Pats beat the Bills next week, I'm going to lose my mind. I just want you right now. First of all, Gonzales has a concussion, so don't play him. He's the best defensive player. Put him on the side. I would not play Drake May. Sit him down for a week 18, play Joe Milton, the third string guy. They have to lose this Buffalo game. If you're Buffalo, I would want the Pats to beat us. They're in our division. I wouldn't want the Pats to have the number one pick and trade back and get Mike Vrabel as the coach. This was a huge week for Pats Manzo because there's real momentum now for like, Hey, maybe Maybe you need an actual coach in a gym. Maybe he's getting worse. Getting worse in every part of football over the course of four months. Maybe that was a bad sign. Maybe that we fucked up the draft in free agency and did basically everything wrong. Maybe all that was a bad sign. Now, we hit the ladder with this Jake Magai.

I just don't like the losing and going crazy for the one pick. It's stinking thinking, Simmons, is what it is.

I feel dirty, but I'm going to do it anyway. Speaking of Dirty, the Colts, four straight years of absolutely horrible indefensible end-of-the-ear losses or choke jobs, or even last year where they had a chance to make the playoffs and they blow it on the fourth down. They had that 2021, they lost to Jackson Sibyl when Jim Mercy is like, Yeah, Carson Wentz off the team. I don't ever want to see him again. So it's four straight years of that. I think Shane Steiken is a secret might get fired after the year guy. I have no inside info. I just think that team is pretty ratchid the whole year. I don't think they're well-coached. I think they've underachieved. We always have that one surprise firing after week 18. He would be my leading suspect.

Did he get an extension Because that's the key. That's the tell all that he's going to get fired if he got an extension. I don't think so.

He's only in a two-year... He's in year two, right? He was a first-year coach last year.

Yeah, I guess you're right. Yeah, this is the second. I'm thinking of someone else. Yeah, it might be It's the case that there just aren't enough new good coaches out there. He might have been on the bubble and saved himself. But yeah, you're right. They're pitiful.

It's absolutely ludicrous that Mike Vrabel wouldn't be getting hounded by five teams. Mike Vrabel, I think in '21, he went 12 and 5 with this banged up Tennessee team, Ryan Tana Hill, who I don't think ever started a full season again as a quarterback. Aj Brown, who got traded after the year. I just always felt like that team was supremely, extraordinarily well-coached. They always overachieved. I never really understood how they were doing it. I don't understand if you're the Jets, the bears. People are like, The bears need an offensive coach. The bears need a coach. It doesn't have to be an offensive coach. Just somebody that will give them some culture, which is what the path is.

He's number one. I think he gets to pick his spot. So if you were him, where do you go? He could probably coach at UNC now and steal that a job from Belichick if he wants.

My dream would be he was in the Patriots Hall of Fame. You got Drake May, you have all this Cav space, and you have the number one pick. That seems like the best job. I don't know. You go to the bears and your ownership's a complete mess. You're doing everything wrong and you've built this team. That's this run and gun team to play in Chicago in 10 Degree weather. I don't know. I wouldn't want that job. The Jets' job is mildly intriguing. They do have a lot of talent. I just said it's a Woody Johnson thing. I'm not sure I'd want to work for him. Yeah, that's the whole thing. Who would you want?

Well, if I'm him, I think you stay out of the NFC North. That's a disaster when you have 13 win teams making the- It's a great point.

Yeah, why do you want to be in Detroit, Minnesota, Green Bay and battle those teams six times a year? It's too long.

Yeah, it's too long. It's not a sexy team, and you can't be happy with Anthony Richardson at this point, but I think you'd stay in any AFC South job that you could get. I mean, the The bad divisions are still the bad divisions. Maybe New Orleans. So Jacksonville? Yeah, somewhere like that.

Matt, a couple of other short things I had for you. Matt Jones has as many wins this year as Trevor Lawrence. Just putting that out. I am 25 and 5. You did a great job. Season future over under. Thanks to the Atlanta loss today. I need a Houston win and an Arizona win next week, and I would go 7 & 5, which we always... We have all these media accounts where everybody shits on anyone with a podcast or a column or a feature or whatever. It's like this cottage industry. There's no benevolent version of it where it's like, Hey, this person did a really good job. Hey, Cousin Sal is 13 and 2 on why is this wager? Good luck to him this week. We need happy version of those terrible media accounts.

I'm with you. So get the Ringer people to plug it.

25 and 5 overrunners. Put that on some fucking tweet somewhere.

Make a freaking billboard outside your You got my doing. It's fun. 25 and 5, we did great on the other futures, right? Yeah. You beat me in that.

I had two locks. I had Carolina under, New England under, three, and Green Bay over. All those hit.

So maybe we should tell people what to stay away from because we hit the mother load if the lions get the one seat. And I specifically do because I got 26 to one on Chief's Lion's one seat. And so we- Amazing. Again, after how many years, still don't know how to hedge this. We got five to one When we get the lines, let's talk about the hedge for that.

You got. Dorian Thompson-Rovinson, Threw a pick today, no countdown. Career, one countdown, 10 picks. I was like, I wonder who else has done that. I wonder what other players in NBA and NFL history have one countdown or less and 10 interceptions or more. So you have that stat head on the pro football reference. So I went up. How many other people do you think have done that? History. Three. History of football. Five.

Five?

Well, anyone we know. Nobody in the last 40 years. We had Stan Heath, one shutdown, 14 interceptions. Len Barnum, 0 for 10. Randy Headberg, in 1977, 0 for 10.

It's like an accounting firm. Who are these people?

Wayne Clark, zero touchdance, 14 picks in the early part of the '70s. Nice. Then Rusty Lish, One TD, 11 Picks. So he's done something that he's done in 40 years.

That doesn't sound like a quarterback's name. You deserve what you get if you're drafting a Rusty Lish. I mean, that's not- Collinsworth would have trouble with that one.

Rusty Lish or Pash Fashion rush.

Yeah. The DTR, did he seem right to you? I felt like something was off.

No, he seemed hurt. I'm making a joke.

That's what we say about the good quarterbacks. We're going to find out he was injured.

I think he actually was hurt. He thought he was not good, but he was hurt.

He had one interception, he had one fumble, he had three intentional groundings and a 20 QBR. Plus, whatever you're saying.

Now, that's a team that is tanking. They want to get a top three pick. They have a chance to get one or two if one of those teams, if Tennessee or the Pats. We're not playing Jameis again. Jameis is too unreliable. He might actually win this game. He might actually beat Miami. We can't play him.

I don't know what their plan is. They basically announced this week they're going to keep Watson for two more years. That deal just gets worse and worse.

Last thing before guest lines, great passed away, and they were talking about him in all the games the last couple of days. I was really bummed out. I feel like, especially people who grew up with the '80s, the ESPN, and he was one of the five or six people. It was him It was Gael Gardner, it was Chris Bermann, it was Tom Lee. It was the same six people for an entire decade. Then he went on, he graduated, did all this stuff. He became a studio host.

He was an original WFAN guy, too, in New York.

Right. Going way back. Then has a really important... He did the tuck roll game, a. K. The snow game for Pats fans. Last game. He announced that one. But beloved guy by all counts and feels like he's been in our lives ever since we like sports. I was bummed.

And yet, like a dozen years older than I would have thought. Like '78, right? I know he helped them. He looked young. But yeah, man, I would get very excited. I'm a big Selection Sunday guy. I write it down even though they have the bracket right on the TV. The Duke Blue Devils are the number one seed in the East region. It's just like something cool and you could rely on. And yeah, he'll be missed. Another great voice.

Passed through a lot of great sports and sports moments. I was thinking about that whole E Pancrew in the '80s. That was our lifeline to all this highlights and information back then. You had these people, and it was the same way the local news anchors mean the most in your dad's house in the '70s. We had these six, seven, eight people that were just the people we found out what happened. You really felt like you had relationships with all of them. Bermen was the funny one. Tom Lee was the serious one. Bob Lee He was the professor. Then Charlie Steiner showed up. I don't know, Gumball was in those. When he graduated out of that, I was like, whoa, somebody hired one of the ESPN guys. It felt like we all made it. Anyway, All right, guess the lines. Week 18. We're going to go in order of impact.

Do you care? So you know what the Saturdays are, right?

Yeah, I didn't do it that way, though. I'm just going to follow this I had. Because the biggest game, the NFC one seed on the line. That's going to be Sunday night, right? That's Sunday night. How can that not be?

They saved it. Honestly, if the Vikings lose that game, I'm not sure what what NBC does and the league does with that game. I think they maybe have to stop with the everyone plays a division the last week. I think maybe just go with the preseason, the play-offs from last year and try to mix them up and try to get lucky because now we see that only one out of eight divisions or two in the AFC Nord's case barely matter. But most of these are settled by week 18.

I called Tom, Tom meets Tom Lee, by the way.

Yeah, that's Yeah, it's fine. It's good. I didn't need to. Rest in peace.

Lions Vikings. It's in Detroit. I'm giving this the tic-tac, so Lyons minus one and a half against Minnesota for the one seed. I think this is a dead even game. You could even talk me into Minnesota being favorite in this, but I don't think it'll start that way. So I'm going Lyons minus one and a half.

All right. I have to now adjust because some of these have moved. I said minus three, it's minus two and a half for the Detroit Lyons. Interesting. I love that. I get that. And I'm telling you right now, I might get two more, and that's it. We almost shouldn't count this week. Much like they don't count week 18 in fantasy, I almost think we shouldn't count this for you. Guess the lines. And I'm not just saying that because I'm off by four points every game.

Detroit does not need to beat San Francisco tomorrow.

Right.

The game somehow doesn't matter, even though week 18 matters the most, which is just weird.

Kornacki was a little... He threw me a little bit. I feel like he made it like they did need that this game did matter. Then like, no, 49 doesn't matter at all.

It 100% does not matter. Dan Campbell is doing the whole, We're playing anyone anyway. I think that would be crazy to do that. Sure. Week 6, Detroit won 31-29. Somehow we had three two-point games that the Vikings were involved with against the Lions and Green Bay, which is just weird.

Right. That's where the tic-tac comes into play, the one and a half. Got to get it the right way.

Nfc South, on the line, not really. Falcons win, they get the four seed. They're playing the Panthers in Atlanta. I'm sorry. I screwed this up. Tampa wins, they get the fourth seed, right? Yes.

Tampa's up a game. They lose a tiebreaker if they lose a game.

So Tampa wins, they get it. Tampa loses, Atlanta wins. Atlanta gets it because they beat Tampa Bay twice. Tampa is home for the saints who stink. And Tampa's offense is really good. And as we discussed earlier, Baker Mayfield, fantasy MVP, at least one of them. I have the Bucks minus ten and a half.

I'm going to beat you here. I had eleven and a half. It's 13 and a half. Wow.

Think How about that?

We're going to have to do something here.

Can you imagine if I told you in mid-August, Week 18, the Bucks are going to be favored by 13 and a half against the Saints. What would you have thought happened?

I would have thought the Saints named Spencer Rattler, their starter.

And had the clogger as their coach.

Yeah. God, they're so bad.

This would have been so much more fun if Atlanta won today because we would have had all kinds of scenarios. Washington had to win. There was all different tiebreaker shit. We won our NFC South bet, by the way. So kudos to us.

Oh, good. With the under.

Nice. Because they can only have two more. Two more. The highest, it could get to 28. So we made it by two.

It wasn't even scary. When was it at scariest? I'm trying to think. I guess when New Orleans beat up on Dallas and Carolina. A week ago. A week ago?

When Carolina started upsetting people and it was like, holy shit. If Carolina won today and Atlanta I guess Carolina was playing NFC South. Yeah, they're still... But if Atlanta had won, it got a little closer than I wanted. Falcons against the Panthers. I have Falcons. This is in Atlanta. I have Hawkins by seven and a half against the Panthers.

You got it exactly. I had eight. But it's not going to matter.

Teaser?

Well, I just worry that Baker does like he did today and has like 40 points up there, and Atlanta calls off the dogs. You know what I mean? They're playing the same time, obviously.

I'm going to put the Washington game in this category, too. No, I can't do that now because they lost. I need to put them in a different category. Hold on. Doing this on the fly here. Okay. Put them later.

The problem with this is, and I'm going to show my hand here, is a lot of these lines don't reflect when Thursday, the coach says, We're and everybody. Then the lines fly another five points. Just be careful, everyone.

Nfc West on the line, the Rams are minus two and a half against the Seahawks. Oh, no, that was my guess. I screwed that up. If the game is in LA and I have the Rams minus two and a half over the Seahawks, I should have let you guess first.

I had Seattle by one, and then Seattle by two and a half. The Rams are in, right?

They're not necessarily 100% in yet.

No, they needed one more team to win.12 things had to happen.No.

I'm going to go through it.

It's crazy what needs to happen for Seattle to win for this game to matter.

They need... Oh, no, they're out. You're right, because they needed Atlanta to beat Washington. Yeah, they're done. I think that was the last one. Oh, man. So this doesn't matter. I'm keeping that.

I don't care. I'm taking that win.

Yeah, take it.

Go. What else we got?

I did all the work for Washington winning, and then when Atlanta came back, I changed all the work, and then I didn't change all the work.

Rahim screwed everything up.

I was so excited to go through all the things that needed to happen in week 18 for Seattle. It's like two things. Because it was actually pretty conceivable. They needed Arizona to beat San Francisco, Denver to beat KC, Atlanta to beat Carolina. All three of those things could happen. Miami to beat the Jets, still conceivable. Chicago to beat Green Bay, not playing for anything, not inconceivable. Chargers, Vegas, Tampa beats New Orleans.

It wasn't the Saints or something?

No, the weird one was the Pats would have had to be Buffalo. That's where the wheels got.

That's going to happen. Get ready.

All right. Playoff spot on the line. Three teams, one spot. Broncos against the Chiefs. It's in Denver. Wow. I did Broncos minus seven and a half.

I said four and a half, and it was seven and a half, it went to eight and a half. So you get it?

Wow.

Man, that's high. I guess if Carson Wentz just plays with all second string, the whole first string sits, then it's going to be tough. But That's a lot of points for Denver. It's a lot.

I don't know. I like the Chiefs in that game.

Yeah.

I like the Chiefs, and I don't know if mind the Chiefs' money line either. I could see them being like, Fuck it. We're not playing for two weeks after this. We'll play Carson Wentz. Let's run all our stuff. I don't know. Here's what I know. Here's what I know. Because Denver is not that good.

How many favorites It's where it's Fandle and Vegas gotten walloped on in the last year? I don't know, four months.

Colts today.

There's a team. There's a team that's going to blow it for everybody. There's a team. Could be them.

Dolphins are home for the Jets. I'm sorry. Jets are home for the Dolphins, but Dolphins need a win, and they need a Denver loss, and two of them might not play. Steve Puntley was passable today, and people are excited about it. I don't see how this can be less than Dolphins by four and a half.

All right, I got it exactly. It's two and a half. But I was getting a headache thinking of these. There really were.

Who in God's name would bet the Jets? Well, now, if they had Tyrod Taylor, I might bet them. They have a chance. That's it. Because it might be a whole spite game.

Snoop against Taylor?

I love it. By the teammates.

Yeah.

Steelers-bengals in Pittsburgh. Since he needs a win plus Denver-Miami losses, Pittsburgh gets the three seed with a win and a Baltimore loss. Pittsburgh could drop to six if they lose and the chargers win. I did Stealers minus one and a half.

Wow. I did since he minus three, and it's sincey minus two and a half.

What? Honestly, that's stupid. I'm going to bet the Stealers.

No, don't bet the Stealers.

I'm 100% bet on the Stealers. They're no good. The bangles aren't good. The bangles are eight and eight.

Listen, You cursed the Steelers three weeks ago when you named them the best team. You cursed the Steelers and you cursed Drake May. I cursed everybody else in the league, but you cursed the Steelers and Drake May.

I said three weeks... I said what? Four weeks ago, I said, I thought the Steelers were playing the best of anyone in the AFC. Pickens immediately got hurt. That bunch of their guys on defense got hurt, and Russell Wilson turned into Denver Russell Wilson. My words were hanging in the air, and all of a sudden... You go the other way, though, and you could say they just played three really tough teams in 11 days, and maybe they're still pretty good.

Pickens played last week on Christmas. It didn't matter. Russell Wilson, the defense is just average right now for whatever reason.

Defense hasn't been good for a month.

If hustle and bustle isn't playing out of his mind, it might as well be anyone, the Stealers team.

Stealers are home dogs, and they need the game in playing a team that doesn't have a good defense, and he's a pretty shaky coach, let's be honest. I know he made a Super Bowl.

I don't think they start anyone, honestly. I don't think they care. I don't think Tom is the guy.

You think they don't care if they're two or three?

Yeah, I think he's like, Give us the Ravens again. It's Fine, because they play at the same time. The Ravens are going to be up 30 to nothing on the Browns. No, they play the same day, but later in that day.

Would you rather play the Ravens or the Bills if you're the Steelers?

I think the Ravens Isn't that always like an 18, 16 game for the most part?

Yeah, and they've beaten them a few times. They beat them earlier this year.

They'll figure it out. Still lose, but...

Afc seating on the line. Chargers at the Raiders. Raiders are red hot. Chargers could get the five seed with a win or Pittsburgh loss.

But it was a stupid team.

I have the Chargers favored by eight.

I got to find this now. I I had seven. Let's see where it is. I got to find it because they're all moving around. Five and a half. So I got it.

Wow. Vegas on this. Are you going to beat me this week? It feels like you're going to beat me.

This is crazy. I have some bad The one's coming up.

I always suck in week 18. My fans were prepared for it. I'd take it easy like the Chiefs.

We could do this, Jacobi. Hang in there.

Ravens are home against the Browns. They get the three seed with a win. Cleveland clinches a top three pick with a loss. You can guess where this game's going. I'm going Ravens by 13.5. Okay.

I said 15. 17.5. Wow. It's the biggest of the year, right?

Jesus. I can't even put that in a 13-point tease. What am I going to do with that line?

You can. It's fine. Like you said, the Browns aren't going to put up a fight.

Nfc 6 I see it on the line, technically. Washington has the edge right now. They're at Dallas, and the packers are home for the bears. Washington, I have minus three and a half over your Cowboys.

I bet you got it exactly. I thought it would be five. It's three and a half.

I had a small bet on the Cowboys with the over in that game, teased. Cooper Rush was awful. I mean, your team was awful, but Cooper Rush, why don't they... They just don't want to see what Trey Lance, what's there. They just give it up on him?

I think it's an absolute mystery. I think maybe they want to trade him and they don't want to show how bad he is.

Oh, interesting. They're hiding him?

They don't have enough makeup. But did you see what the fans did to Jerry Jones today? I'll send you that clip. I don't know why he ever goes to Philly, but the fans within earshot, they're like, Keep doing what you're doing, Jerry. You're doing great. You're doing great for the organization. Oh, no.

Yeah, man. They're like, sarcastic praising him?

Oh, yeah. I don't know if he gets it or not, but he's like, I try not to disappoint. And he's like, Oh, my God, just get out. Why are you ever going there?

These old owners. How old is Jerry? He's in his 80s now, right?

He's there, I think. Yeah.

We have Bob Kraft, he's 83. That's part of what with the I just feel like these guys are old. How many years left do they have? Why do they want to mess around? We have the wrong coach and the wrong GM. Just fix it.

Why do they want to live in their house?

Maybe 84 next year.

I know.

Other one for the sixth seed, Packers, bears. The bears coming off, I think, probably the worst televised national TV game of the year, the Seahawks, Bears, game, just a complete atrocity. Packers can lock down the sixth seed. I'm going to say by 11.5..

You get it. I was way... See, this is one of the ones I was way off on. I said seven and a half, it's 10. But again, this is another one. Jordan Love can rest or he could play this game and stay at the 6.

What's the score?

I don't know. 1, 2, 3, 4. 2, 3. 6 to 4, me.

I might I still get this.

I think you are going to get it. Bunch of garbage coming.

We only have five games left. Yeah. All right, so we type. All right, next category is top three draft pick on the line. The Bills are at the Patriots. The Pats clinched the first pick with a loss. Buffalo has clinched everything already. And yet, I think Buffalo is still going to be favored by five and a half. Even with Mitch Trubisky.

I went higher than that. It's amazing that you're going to win this and be off by so much. I went Bills by six. It's Bills by one and a half. Wow. So you get it.

Mitch Trubisky.

This has got to make you nervous. One and a half in the game that you think for sure you're laying down in?

I don't know for sure. We don't have a smart franchise. I don't know what expect.

But one and a half. Well, I mean, you and I thought five and six.

We ran a play. I mean, the Chargers game was one of the lowest moments in recent Pat's history and brought me back to the mid '70s before things turned around, brought me back to the late '80s. There was a play, though. First of all, it looked like Jake May got concussed five minutes in the game, and then he came back. Then Gonzales got concussed. But there was a play when Jake May, he turned and it was like, Douglas was coming around on a reverse, and it seemed like he was pitching to the running back, but he was pitching to the wide receiver instead, but the wide receiver wasn't there yet. The ball just rolled back. You think he was?

He was pitching? Because I was wondering. I'm not being dick.

I thought it was a play to the wide receiver.

Interesting. I feel like it was just whoever's there. Just take it.

I think Douglas started going in motion too late, and it was supposed to be turned, flipped to the wide receiver, but he was three feet back. That was awful. I mean, it was an awful game. The crowd was booing. It was really depressing.

Yeah, man. I mean, I don't know. He has three wins. You could be excited about him, but he's been just bad enough that you're in the spot to get the number one pick.

I love Jake, man. The only thing that makes me worried is when he starts doing things like tiptoeing down the sidelines, spinning into a guy going 30 miles an hour. It's like, Please don't get hit anymore, Drick May. Eagles Giants in Philly. Giants clinch a top four pick with a loss, maybe even a little bit better. Philly, nothing to play for. I'm going to say Eagles by nine.

Oh, All right, I get this. I said five and a half. It's three and a half.

See, I'm always bad in week 18.

Look out for the Giants. Eight, two, five. And how many left?

One, two. Three games left.

Okay, good. You got to sweep them. You could do this. You could pull it off.

Texans are at Tennessee. Tennessee clinches the second pick in the draft of the loss.

Did they not cover again? I honestly don't know. Did the Jaguars win that game?

They went by seven.

And they covered. So they're like two and 14 now?

Yeah, two and 14 against the spread. Beautiful.

Great job.

I have Texans by three and a half at Tennessee.

All right. I had Texans by one and a half. It is, let me see because these things change.

I love how you have to check because I'm- I do have to check.

All these have changed. Tennessee by four and a half.

Tennessee by four and a half.

Tennessee by four and a half. I get that.

Over Over Houston by four and a half.

Yeah. See, this is why this week shouldn't count. We are going to count it. Damn right, we're going to count it, but it shouldn't count.

What in the hell? Why would Tennessee want to win this game? They don't have a quarterback. Their quarterbacks are Will Levis and Mason Rudolf. There's two quarterbacks in the draft. Why would they want to win the game and move back in the draft?

They're not going to sit everyone. The Texans are going to sit everyone. They're going to be calling guys off the street. Why wouldn't the Titans do that? Houston Barbecue and stuff. I don't know.

Two more games. These are in the category, absolutely irrelevant. Colts home for the Jaguars. I did Colts minus seven and a half.

You're going to get it. It's five and a What did you guess? I said two. Then Cardinals at home for the 49ers.

I need this one for my over-unders. I need Houston to win with their underdogss, and they need the Cardinals to win, and I could go 27 and 5 with my NFL runners, which delight me to no end. Cardinals, I'm going to guess minus three and a half.

I said Cardinals by two, and the Niners are favored by one and a half, so I get that. What? What a win for me. But they'll be favorite. Wow.

What a great week. Every year, you win Week 18. That's the only one I win. I swear you won for 11 straight years.

All right, so now going into the playoffs, it's 9-8.

I'm winning by one?

Yeah, nine to eight to one. One time. Wow.

That's the closest you've been in a while.

Very exciting. Well, you know what I do in the playoffs? I just completely crapped a bet.

Have you thought about that Minnesota-Trey game yet?

Well, we have too much. We're too interested in actually trying to figure out who wins. We have to hedge. We have to hedge.

We have to hedge. We have five to one, and we may not have the better team. On Detroit.

Yeah. And plus, we have a little... I mean, Detroit can win by two. You talked about all the games the Vikings were in the one by two. We could take the points there. We should probably do it now.

Really proud of us.

I like it.

It's a great bet. Yeah. We did it. I did more when I was in Boston on FanDuel. Just making weird FanDuel bets. That was one of them. Had some losers, though. I had some flyers on Houston to be the one seed. I had a Green Bay to be the one seed flyer. The five over-unders that I got wrong, the two that I got wrong, the worst other than the Jets, was Minnesota was one of them. I had the under six and a half for them. Then we both had Jacksonville over. I think that was like, what, seven and a half, eight, at some point that?

I thought they were in the division.

They were awful. The Jets, those were the three that I was the most off on. Jets, Jets. Tampa didn't hit.

Right. Yeah, you just feel like some of these teams are going to hit a wall. I'm stupid. I had the Browns over, I had the Raiders over, all these dumb ass teams that don't even try.

What did you think of this whole gauntlet we just went through with football? Because I actually got conditioned to it by today, just with all the games We had two Wednesday, one Thursday, three Saturday, and then a bunch today. It was nice because there was only two late games today. I liked it. I did a little power walk.

Really?

Had the game on my phone. I just had braided and Burkart just walking around LA watching on my phone.

Well, you could do that with the two in the late afternoon.

Because I didn't Miami, Cleveland. I was like, I don't care. I'm out. Yeah, who cares?

But we had six games before Sunday. I think it's a little too many. I don't think you a Thursday night game if there were two Christmas games on one, right? Yeah. Maybe you don't need three on Saturday because honestly, it ended up being okay. But we had Rattler O'Kunal, Rudolf Mack, Rush Picket, Flacko Lock. Those are four of the six games. Aaron Rodgers was going into the morning games early afternoon. He was the third best quarterback going into them. It was Baker and obviously Josh Allen, and then Aaron Rodgers was third. I don't know.

It led to a Funny Ringer Sunday pregame show where the half the games were games nobody would have wanted to bet on in a million years. You just had to come up with stuff. All right. You want to do Parent Corner?

Yeah, let's do it. How does this go again? We say terrible things about our kids. Now, you know what? I'm going to say a good thing. It's like the last one of the year, right? And we're usually trashing on them. But I'm proud of my kids for all different reasons. Everyone's home, right? Zoe's home from school. Archie's home from They each did something that made me proud this week. Archie, for instance, the oldest, took his younger brothers out for a family portrait, and they all wore ties and buttoned down shirts, and they went to Sears or wherever the hell you go now, and they paid for it. And he got wallet sizes for his grandparents and all different options. It was like a real- The three kids. Yeah. And they're all different fun poses, like a real braided Bunch moment. He made his mother cry, which is a big plus. It's different from the way I make her cry. Making Melissa cry is not an achievement.

That's true. It's good that he made her cry happily.

Exactly. It was a different tears. Middle guy Jack made an audio clip of our friend Brad screaming, and he plays it on a loop and has driven everyone nuts. So I'm proud of him for that. He replaced Mariah Carey's song on the Spotify Top 100. So good job by you, Jack. And perhaps the winner, my little one, Harrison. We went to Florida for a couple of days. We had to visit Melissa's father. When you go through TSA and the grownups have TSA check and the grownups show their ID, and then the little guys, what they do is in a very stern way, they ask, What is your full name? And you have to say it. They'll point to the kid. He's put on the spot. And I swear, Harrison, without meeting a beat, missing a beat. How's it go? Without missing a beat, the guy says, What is full name. He says in a very as deep a voice as an 11-year-old could do, he says, Creet Humphrey, Alabama. I was like, You're my fucking guy. I love it. That's the best. Now, it sidelined us for a couple of minutes. Melissa was not happy at all.

And the guy is not a football fan as you can imagine. He's like, I need your real name right now. He's like, It's Harrison. It's Harrison. It's Harrison Icano. That's my name. We got through it, but I was like, That's- Creet Humphrey.

When I came up with Creet Humphrey.

I don't know. It might be something he and his friends say because it's like the Monday night football thing. But good job by the three of them.

Wow. How many times for tears from Melissa in 2024? Do we have a final count? Is it on wifereference. Com?

A lot, man. It's the age. I don't know. You're going through it, too?

No, more tantrums.

Oh, tantrums. I wouldn't mind a tantrum every now and then.

Well, it's the Zoe and my wife just being in the same house. It's great.

Yeah, right.

Well, it's... I mean, there's a lot of tears since this Brad recording has gone viral in the house.

But other than that...

Can you put the Brad recording on Instagram or something?

I think I will. I think I will. It's pretty good. It's going to be a little out of context. People don't know them, but it's good.

My parent corner. I had Zoe on the last 40 minutes of my podcast on Thursday, and she did her Teen Culture Awards for the last time because she turns 20. Both of our kids turn 20 next year, and they're not teenagers anymore. Have you really thought about that?

No, I haven't. Shit. Is that true? Come on, you're still a teen at 20, no?

No, you're 100% not a teen. I don't know what you are.

It's not 20?

No. 20 is that limbo year before you turn 21, where you're just like, I'm not a teenager anymore, but I can't legally drink either. What am I?

Oh, man.

Anyway, we went to the Clipper game on Friday. We saw the Clippers against the Warriors. She wanted to see Steph Curry. It was great. Then Friday morning, Steph Curry is not playing tonight. The NBA, just it's like, I wonder what's wrong with the league. Well, it's because shit like this because Steph Curry is in town and then he's not playing. We don't need to litigate that for the 100 times. It was just funny. It's funny with your kids to go through the stages of the stuff that we've all litigated as sports fans for years and years where she's like, I don't understand. I thought we were seeing Steph Curry. Why isn't he playing? How How hurt is he? I was like, Well, they're playing Phoenix tomorrow night. They played on Christmas. Yeah, but still, I don't... But he should play.

I love it. You deserve this.

All these people are coming to the arena to see Steph Curry, and he's not going to be there. What if he got it for a Christmas? I'm like, Yeah, it's got conversation for 10 years. This is one of the many reasons why the schedule should be 60 games. Steph Curry would actually play in all the arenas. Anyway.

He wouldn't, but you're right. Yeah, I know what you're saying.

I really love the Clippers Arena. They did a great job. My daughter had a great time. The places, they really did it. They figured out how to create this arena where they have good fans. It's loud. You feel like you're on top of the court. The fans feel like they're affecting the game.

There's real energy. There's games going on in between everything.

It's just cool. When you go to get a drink or food or anything, there's no TVs anywhere. Swype it. He wants people in the stadium. Anyway, third quarter, time out, and Zoe runs off to get a candy The guy behind me taps my shoulder. He's like, Hey, anyone ever tell you look like Bill Simmons? He starts laughing. He's like, Hey, how are you? He's like, I'm a fan of the pod. I didn't want to say it. Was it Steph Curry? No, it could have been.

That would have been exciting.

So he goes, I didn't want to say anything until your wife went, but when your wife went to the bathroom. I was like, That's not my wife. That's my daughter. She's 19. I was just completely for the rest of the game. First time somebody has thought my daughter was my wife, so I really wanted to kill myself.

All right, let's think about this. That's a huge compliment for you, right? I think.

There is no compliment to be taken from any aspect of this. It was a dark moment.

If you had said, Granddaughter, that would have sucked, right?

Granddaughter would have been tough.

Okay, so a granddaughter would have been really hard. Wife is not as bad. Not as bad.

Wow. Are you telling me this? Of course. I was thinking, Girlfriend would have been even more logical. Wife is like, What is this? Is she a child bride? When she turned 18, her family- You're not going to commit to this soon to be not Right now?

Wow.

Oh, that's good. I could see Zee looking like she's 22, 23 to somebody, but not... But just like, I'm old. I don't know. It threw me out.

But you're in LA also. It's not inconceivable.

Well, that's the thing. It's an indictment of LA, right?

If you had a Thunder game in Oklahoma City, they would have gotten it right, I think. Good for you. Congratulations. Did she laugh? Did she laugh about it?

She was horrified. She's Flat out horrified. Anyway, thanks to that guy.

What did he say? Did he apologize or did you just pull him?

No, he said, Oh, my bad. He did one of those. Nice guy. But yeah, anyway, that's it for Parent Corner. There you go. What else do we have to hit? What do you want to plug?

What do we got? Against all odds, the fellows and I will be doing the college football pics Monday night for the Tuesday and Wednesday games. It's fun. Four big playoff games in the Ringer pregame. Which is your Show on Sunday. What's your favorite playoff game? You know what? I'm taking Boise to upset Penn State. I think that's it. I think that- You like the running back. I like John Day. I think there's going to be a FU moment for the committee who has been told they've screwed this And God damn it, of course, they have screwed it up. But I think they're going to be like, Aha, told you this is going to be a good matchup. And so at least take the points.

I'm excited for it. Casual College football fan Bill likes the playoffs. I like that there's more teams, even though the first round of games suck.

And Archie's going to the Rose Bowl because Oregon's playing Ohio State there. It's nice and convenient.

So he's gone. Oh, no, it's Rose Bowl. It's here. Yeah, Rose Bowl. Yeah.

Yeah. Couldn't have worked out better.

So how long When did he stay for the break?

He's here until the day after he leaves, the second. I don't know. When does your wife, Zoe, go back?

My wife, Zoe, is going to Miami to see the boyfriend. Oh, on the fifth of January, sixth of January, somewhere in there. Because this is another thing. Her boyfriend's turning 21.

Oh, really? Okay. Interesting.

Just we're getting old, I don't know. I don't know how to stop it. I know. Souruti is one of the producers. He's got this tiny kid, her whole life in front of her. She's barely... Meanwhile, we went through all these stages. It sucks. Just sad how fast it goes.

I almost missed my flight. I had a sprint. I don't think I've ever run this fast. I made it one of those things where they were about to close the door at a sprint to the... I think I sprained both my hamstrings. I just sat in my seat and cried for the five-hour He blew out your Achilles. Yeah, I was like, Fuck, what is this? How do you get this back?

It's over. You didn't have any wrestling tournaments or anything over the break?

No, not yet. No. We're good. We're good till next week.

All right, that's it for the pod. Thanks to Sareud and Kyle on the How. Cus, good job by you.

Good job by you, buddy.

Thanks to everybody. We'll be back on Tuesday. Must be 21 plus in President Select States for Kansas, an affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President DC. Gambling problem? Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help. Com. Call 188-789-7777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp. Org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma. Org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts, or call 1877-8 Hope, NY, or text Hope, NY in New.