Transcript of Five NBA Trade Ideas, a Sleeper NFL Playoff Team, Eagles-Packers, and Week 10 Picks With Joe House

The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by the Ringer podcast Network, where I have a new rewatch that was coming for you on Monday. It was me and Sean Fennesey and Van Lathen. And we did snake Eyes, the Brian De Palma movie with nick Cage. That is just a time capsule of what it was like movies in the late '90s, just the chances they took and also movies that were less than 100 minutes. So great times all around. We cut out a piece of that podcast that we ended up running on this podcast on Tuesday, if you missed it. Coming up today, so House is going to come on, as always on Thursdays to do NFL picks, but Picasso had to go into the Art Studio and do some Trade Machine There's a lot of unhappy teams. I don't know what's going on with John Morant. Even though it is November sixth, it's feeling very trade-wiffy. So we're going to make up some fake trades. Well, I made up some fake trades. I'm going to throw them in house, and then we're going to talk about the NFL Slate, Ringer 107. Complicated week. It's all next.

We're going to take a break. Then Pearl Joe. This episode of the Bill Simmons podcast is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm, it's like needing the protection of an offensive guard on the football field, but getting an elementary school crossing guard. Sure, they're both guards, but you can only trust one to keep your quarterback safe when the game is on the line. So don't settle for just any insurance. When you can have State Farm, like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. All right, we're recording mid-afternoon East Coast time. I'm on the East Coast. Went to the Celtics game yesterday. Joe House is here. We'll talk NFL a little bit later. A lot of stuff. This is a good House Simmons pod because it's just NBA, NFL. Just a vortex. I went to the Celtic game last night. I saw your terrible Wizards team. Not that the Celtics were much better. The Trade Machine, Picasso has definitely bought Azizal and bought some paint and bought some brushes once the John Morant knew this going to happen. But going to that Celtic game yesterday, the wheels started to turn, and I don't really know what the point of this Celtic season is.

I don't mean to be a dick. It's fine. Jalen Brown is good. Derek White is good. Simons is okay. Pritchard is okay. Kate has been fun. He's a double-double guy. You won money on that yesterday. But it's probably a below 500 team. And the question is, what's the point? And if Tatum is going to be out, maybe with this legendary draft class, maybe you start audibly. And that got me thinking about Trade House. And here's the problem. Really hard to make trades this year. The new CBA, first apron, second apron, big contracts, teams that just we can't take more money. It's actually against the rules for us to add even $1. Is this good? Because I was arguing with Bobby Marks about this today on text. Bobby Marks, the league is... He said this on ESPN, The League's in better shape. This is all good. We have a better balance now. I feel like a lot of teams are stuck with who they are. What do you see?

Well, you have to define good. What goal are you seeking to achieve with the parity that is the world that we live in right now?

I mean, if you're Adam Silver, what's your goal? The League What do you think their goal was? You think it was just parody across the board and no high payrolls, and that's it?

Yes. Parody above all else. Not that dissimilar from the NFL, where a team like Washington can be really bad for a number of years, luck into something in a lottery, in a draft, get a franchise-changing quarterback, and then make it to the NFC Championship game or a team like New England, which has been bad for four or five years, gets a great addition in a draft, and all of a sudden, New England, not just a playoff threat, but potentially, it's okay for the good people in It's a difference, though. It's a dream. Let me hear it.

If you get your quarterback, you can still spend money around him, and you can still push money forward into the future and pay for shit. You can do what KC has done. And like, KC was trying to trade for Brees Hall at the trade deadline. How do they have They wanted to do anything. I look at some of these basketball teams. The Knicks and Cleveland are the two best teams in the East. They also can't make any trade that would improve whatever situation they have now, which maybe that's a good thing. I don't know.

They made the trades. I mean, the Knicks made four trades, five trades, franchise altering. Mikael Bridges, Cat, acquiring Brunson, stealing Brunson away from the Mavericks, convincing Brunson to take an under-market deal. That's how you build up a nucleus that's competitive.

Most teams have not done that. And also the way they sprung these rules were instead of saying, these are going to start three years from now, they just jumpstart I heard it. And I look around and it's not just that I see teams that are probably upset about where they are, stuck with their roster or whatever, but I also don't see a lot of options for fixing it. And that's what I don't remember before.

What needs fixing? You don't like the way that the West lines up competitively with Houston, Denver, Oklahoma City. Houston is a point guard. They can still get that point guard. They have an asset in the form of a friend of mine's contract sitting right there for a team that has guards.

The problem is the guards are either really expensive or not quite expensive enough.

That's a complaint about a guy getting hurt, which happens in the NBA and the NFL and everywhere else.

But one of the things I was looking at is the Lakers really just can't trade LeBron. He has no trade clause anyway. But even if they decided, you know what? We're having a better time without you. You don't really want to be here anymore because it's Luca's team now. Let's figure this out. There's nowhere for him to go. He can't go to the Knicks. He can't go to Cleveland because of the rules. And then I look at some of the other guys that are already available, like Marant, I'm assuming, Trey, you've been on this Hawks thing. You love the Tuesday game when they look great without Trey Young. And it was like a little, Hey, look at us. Look how long and happy. You were in on that.

It wasn't me. It's just I wish that we had gambled on the over-under of when the first story is about, Hey, we have a chemistry here without Trey Young. Oh, it's so interesting.

We still love Trey, but it's interesting that we can also play without You knew that story was coming.

The first one hit immediately after that Orlando game. I loved it so much.

So you seem like you like these new rules more than I do. I wish there was some hybrid version of both of them. I look at, for instance, your team has C. J. Mccollum and Chris Middleton, who I got to watch in person last night. In Middleton, whatever life he's leading this year is just the ideal life. He's making like 33 million. He jogs around, takes a couple of threes, pats some dudes on the back, and I guess they're just going to buy him out in February, but they can't really trade him. They can't trade McCollum. Mccollum is a guy that is still a good offensive player. He's going to be on the team and get bought out in February because nobody's going to trade for him. And I don't know if that's I don't know if that's a good CBA if you have situations like that.

Yeah, don't fill in the blanks. I like a version of the NBA where trades are possible. I mean, we've been living, you and I, nobody better than you, but I've enjoyed it along the way as well. 25, 30 years of imagining trades to improve teams along the way on the fly. And quite a bit of the way that I've enjoyed the NBA over the years is getting through the first month of the season. Okay, now that we have that under our belts, let's really start seeing what moves can be made, what stuff is out there, how can teams get better, who's.

Now we're two weeks in. Now it's two weeks in. It's like eight teams that would immediately make a trade if they could.

But if you can't make the trade, then that's not a good version of the NBA, in my humble opinion. The trades are an elemental part because this version of the NBA, as has been talked about ad nauseam over the last 12 months, people don't watch the NBA like, I'm watching the games, and then I'm going to talk about the games afterwards. Everybody's already in some conversation where the games are secondary to the ongoing narrative of the league. The games give us some color for us to talk about. How about the Chicago effing Bulls? How about Josh effing Gidey? That's great stuff. But it's not crucial that I sit and watch the Bulls from the beginning of the game to the end of the game. I don't have to watch the game at all.

Well, so like, baseball, my team needs a left-hander reliever. Let's just go get one. And then you go get one, right? Football, Even though the cap seems pretty prohibitive, it seems like teams can always figure out how to add somebody if they really want somebody. The Colts really wanted a cornerback. Fuck it. Let's go get one. Basketball has lost a little bit of that. And yet, I did find five trades that I really liked. I did not send these to you.

I knew you did. I knew it. I knew it.

Well, two of them have Ja Morant. Great. And the first one is pretty chalk. I think this one's probably floated around, but it's Miami and Memphis. You send Ja to Miami. You put KCP in the deal. Memphis takes back Hero and Rozier, and you just call it a day. And Memphis basically turns Ja into Hero, and Rozier is expiring. Miami has to take on an extra year at KCP. They get Ja. They roll the dice that Ja can be turned into a superstar again. I thought the Durant stuff on court that got captured by video last night when he was going back and forth with Ja's dad. And he's like, your guy doesn't even want to be here past the weekend. And when the players are talking like that, that tells me this is a wrap. And there's really not a lot of spots for Ja. And I also don't really know what his trade value is at this point with all the issues he's had and the lack of durability. If you told me that two years ago, it looks like, well, Miami's got to throw in three first and two swaps. It's like, I don't think they have to throw in anything.

I think just getting hero for a job might be enough if you're Memphis, right?

It has to be that way. I mean, what reasonable expectation does... Memphis already hit its draft pick lottery with the Bane trade. And what that creates for them... I don't really blame Bane, to be honest with you.

Do you see it? Just asking if you saw his stats.

The man's out on an island. It's not good.

It's not good. That's a rough one. Anyway, go ahead.

Well, I like this. So the reason that Morant is a damaged goods proposition is because what situation is going to work for him where he will come and play grown up? He won't be a grown up in Memphis. Memphis is a situation that I think it's run by adults. I've always respected the acumen of the front office. I've respected what they put in charge of coaching. And so he couldn't make it work there. Okay. So what are the situations where it might work? You can cross off literally two-thirds, maybe three-quarters of the league. Just cross it off. There is not a world anywhere near the universe, the Milky Way we live in, where he could come to a place like Washington, and that would be a successful situation.

I think it's actually illegal in the cap for you guys to trade for anyone who's had some gun incident in the past. I don't think we've served the 50-year sentence yet. No, I'm just being honest.

Still feels too soon. I think it's just a fact. It was 20 years ago. It still feels too soon.

When you talk about situations, it's not just like, Oh, this team, he doesn't make sense in this market because this team is not that good. He'll run amok. It's also, this team is doing really well. They wouldn't want to risk it just in case this goes sideways. And then the third group is teams that probably would take a chance on them, but they can't figure out how to make the trade. I think the Clippers are really good example of that. Yeah. So I would trust the Clippers. I could say the Clipper is like, oh, James Harden and something else for John Morant. Conceivably, but there's no way that trade happens, and why would Memphis do that? So there's really... Miami is the one- Miami is very good. Yeah, because he's definitely... The ceiling of him is higher than Hero. You get out of having to pay Hero when his extension is coming up. And then you hope, Hey, if we can get John's head straight, we have him and Bam. Those are two of the best 25, 30 guys in the league.

And Miami also has an institutional thing. They'll get Alonso Morning, they'll get Udonis Haslem, they'll get all the old heads with the Miami lineage to come get in this kid's head to talk to the camp and be like, this ain't it. There's a way for you to make another $500 million. If you would like to make another $500 million over the course of your career, let's figure it out together. As a team, you are now part of heat culture, and there's a pathway to this, but you got to get right.

There's one other team for him. I didn't make this one of my five trades, but I was thinking, if you're just talking about a bad team, there's a Brooklyn case I think this draft that's coming up is so good. I don't think Brooklyn is going to do anything that will jeopardize them getting a top three pick because you have the Kansas kid might be the best guard prospect since Vince Carter or even then go back to Kobe. That's potentially how good he is, Peterson. And then De Bança. Then Booser's son, the power forward, Kam Booser. Those three are all franchise guys. And if I'm Brooklyn, I'm doing nothing I could get you out over the summer if I have to. Sure. But that was the only team because I was thinking like, Man, just make him like the king of Barclays. He's obviously one of the coolest guys in the league. He's got the shoe and he's the whole There's street cred with him that Brooklyn just doesn't have. Brooklyn is invisible. They couldn't be more relevant. They're the third most popular team in New York. And at least if you have Ja, now I can put somebody on the side of the building.

Now, it'll be the same case for Trey Young, by the way. But yeah, Brooklyn is doing nothing because of this draft. Next trade. I do like that Miami trade. I'm as somebody who hates the heat. If that trade happened, I'm like, Fuck, they're going to fix Ja Morant. Yes, they could. The only other John Morant trade is in this... Team is in this next trade, and it's a three-teamer. And of course, Trey Young has to be in it as well. Memphis gets Trey Young.

Okay.

Toronto gets John Morant.

Okay.

Atlanta gets quickly. Murray Boyle, the number one pick they took. Yeah, Toronto liked him. And protected 29 first. Not like an unprotected, but like some other asset. And Memphis basically turns Marant into Trey. And Trey goes in there. The Memphis fans will love him immediately. And maybe everybody's happy.

So we can't have Marant to Atlanta and Trey to Memphis because Marant in Atlanta feels like a disaster. You agree with that?

A disaster, maybe off the court, and I think on the court, if I'm trading Trey Young and I'm not investing in him, it's because I really like these long guys that I want to build my team around, Johnson and Risa Shay and Daniels. I want this to be my team. I don't want to bring in another point guard who's going to have the ball all the time. But you turn John as some depth, quickly as a six-guy off the bench. Murray Boyle is another long guy, and that's just how you spend the 50 million a year on Trey Young that you would I have to spend. You know what I mean?

What does Atlanta get?

That's what they would get. They would get quickly in Murray Boyle.

Oh, I see. Okay. And what Memphis gets is Trey, and what Toronto gets is Ja, and that's it.

And maybe Memphis has to throw in a tiny bit extra because I don't know. Do you think Trey and Jha have equal trade value? I would say Trey is like a whiff higher, right? At this point?

Well, the problem is the contract.

It's expiring. Yeah, you're right. So maybe they're even.

I think they're pretty close to even.

I like that idea for Toronto because they're just a movie where there's no star for the poster.

We the North. Yes, a guy that can rally around, a guy that it's easy to say, Oh, his situation, he was cheated out of his potential down there. In Memphis, we're going to rally behind him. I do like the coach in Toronto. I think he's very good. Organizationally, they move past Messai, which seems like the right move. They have to have some structure for Ja to succeed. Seems like a town that he could work in. I like it. T. I like it.

I like it. If I'm Toronto, I don't do it, though.

Why?

I want to see what I have with this team a little bit longer. I think they're mildly intriguing. Did Did you see any of the game on Tuesday when they just housed the Bucks?

Yes.

They've had some moments this season, and they're a 500 team, but they've had some moments where I'm like, huh.

I get it.

Yeah, I understand. And maybe there's a better trade for them in December, January.

But that's a lot of wadage. You know what I mean? That guy that's on the precipice of a super star thing, he was going to have a whole shoe line. He was going to have all of it. How are you getting that in Toronto?

I guess my question is, and Bernos seems like he doesn't even have the answer to this either, why is John Moran unhappy this year? Shouldn't he be trying to prove himself? Something to Memphis? Something seems like broken there.

There's some communication issue that wasn't resolved when they fired Taylor Jenkins. It just didn't get fixed.

It's been two years of this.

It feels like it's been going on for a long time.

Third trade. This goes back to what I was saying with Celtics at the top. I hate saying this, and this has been floating around for six weeks.

Okay.

And I've resisted. I actually think they should probably trade Derek White, and I love Derek White. He's an awesome Celtic. I don't want to trade Derek White. But this team is just good enough that they're going to screw up their pick. They have all of the reasons to just be one of the five worst teams in the league. They're really close. They can't rebound. Kata is incredibly important. If he's not in the game, they completely fall apart. They have a small lineup. They play with Josh Minot. That's fun. He's been a revelation as a dirt sheep guy on the bench, although now he's starting. They just live and die by threes. But he's going to be 32 later in the season. By the time Tatum comes back, I just It's the one where I'm like, why wouldn't they... If somebody was willing to really go after him, how do you not think about it? Because you're not only getting assets, but you're making the team worse, which is where you maybe want to be. They're playing Luca Garza and Shireman. They're playing guys who are just not NBA rotation guys, I don't think. Jalen has been really good.

Jalen, the question was, could he be a true number one? He really can.

But Can you explain me something with him?

The hair thing? Why is he painting on the hairline? I think to get attention.

I was so upset that Washington wore the Striped jerseys because we couldn't see the painted on hairline.

I know. That he wiped. Here's my Derek White trade, and it's a trade that has been floated around for two months. But I think the trade is a little different than maybe it was two months ago. He goes to Houston. He goes with Tillman's expiring. And the Celtics get Vanvleet, and they get Tarieson, who's been awesome this season. And they get Phoenix's 2027 first. And look, if Houston doesn't want to do that, then there's no trade. But I think that's the price. That's a stiff price. They could turn Derrick White into Easton in that Phoenix pick. Tarieson. And you're the Celtics. You have to do that. I don't know how you say no to that.

That's a triple, double, triple, double win for Boston. You kidding me? That Phoenix pick and Tari Easton?

I'm respectfully. Okay, so now- Respectfully.

Get the fuck out of here. That's outrageous. All right, but if you're Houston- Tari fucking Easton and that pick?

Right, but that's my price up on Boston. So What do you do if you're Houston?

Something that costs a lot less than that.

So you say no way?

Yes, no way.

Houston's close to winning the title this year. Yeah.

Tari Easton is an important part of that.

You got to give up something to get something.

I understand that, but that pick is crazy valuable, the 27 sons pick. And Tari Houston is very valuable to him. And the FVV contract is a movable It's a good part for somebody.

Yeah, it goes this year and then next year. So would you do Eeson in a lesser pick than the Phoenix pick? I don't know, man. Because now I'm not doing it from Boston. I'm only trading Derek White if you It's blown me away. I get that part.

That part resonates. I understand it. But where Houston is right now and the way that they're playing- Houston looks scary.

Easton is playing awesome. So the Rockets fans are listening this and be like, Fuck you. We're I'm trading tire. I just said that. And I don't blame you. I'm with you.

I'm with you, Houston fans.

I'm just saying that's the price for Derek White. And if they can't get something like that, I'm keeping them.

Okay, that's fine. Good luck. You're going to keep them. And the most important thing- Then we have the eighth pick in I'm in three-player draft.

Next trade. You're going to love this because your team's involved.

Oh, boy. Here we go.

Philadelphia gets Chris Middleton and C. J. Mccollum.

Okay, fine.

Washington gets two and a half years of Paul George, Eric Gordon, and Jared McCain.

Okay.

So you take Paul for the next almost three years. He becomes your Chris Middleton this year, but just for three years, and you get McCain out of it. That's the tax.

It's worth it. It's worth it. I would do that. You would do this? Yes. I think McCain is extraordinary. The problem that you have with McCain is now two consecutive years with this injury stuff. Is this a persistent Is this a trait or is it above? Bad luck. Yes, exactly. You have to make that determination. But talent-wise, for a young player of his caliber, there's nobody on Washington as good as Jared McCain, and there's nobody coming down the pike to Washington that's as good as Jared McCain. Now, I'm sitting here enjoying Mr. Sahr. You got to see him last night He's got some skill. There's some skill there.

Here's my scouting report. Really, really promising stretch five. Like a dead-eye three-point shooter. I thought it was going in every time he took it. He's got size. I wouldn't say he's a great rebounder, but he's not bad. I didn't really see him be able to put the ball on the floor at all and really do anything. Basically, I think he becomes a better shooting Miles Turner would be my guess for him down the road. That was my takeaway watching him for two and a half hours last night. It just looks like Miles Turner and Serge Abaka had a baby, basically.

You just have to remember, he's 20. We're getting a lot of evidence that there is NBA skill there.

No, he's the opposite of a bust. You should feel good about Sahr.

I do. I do feel good about him.

I have really no idea what's going on with the guards.

Neither do they.

Like, Bob Kareenton seems like he'll be in the league for a little while, but he's not a starting point guard. I don't know why they would ever in a million years play him and Trey Johnson together. That was really confusing. Trey Johnson, I texted you. His nickname should be drive-through. Everybody was just going by him. It was just going in, get a cheeseburger, keep going. But he's somebody that we know who he is. He's going to be like a scorer. But on that team, everybody wants the ball, and it It's a bad fit for him. Yeah.

God forbid, somebody like VJ Edge, Komer, Ace Bailey.

Yeah, you just missed it. Well, Saur looked like that. Sahr thing worked out. I think if we redraft that draft. They'd probably take him again. So do you think Philly would do that? Because I guess it depends on how good you think McCain is and how desperate you are to get rid of the Paul George contract. They might be like, We're fine with the Paul George contract. We'll just pay it. Yeah.

I mean, the calculus for Philly is, can we have this team going forward with both Embiid and Paul George? And the success of the team depends on both those guys mining their manners for a little while.

Maybe not even playing.

Because really, both of them should shut the fuck up. Neither one of them should talk about anything having to do with career. And They have no contribution to make to this iteration of the Sixers other than to play the role player thing that Embiid is playing. I mean, his inefficiency right now cost them the game against Cleveland. They have him perfectly set up to play in this role where it should be about 25 minutes. He gets shot, but he took 21 shots. He took six fucking three-pointers. He was one for six from three three-point land, and they let the Cleveland Cavaliers come back from 20 some points down. That's bullshit. It shouldn't be permissible. They have a hard strategy thing to solve because you're joyfully Well, Embiid, we signed him to this giant extension. He's a 22 to 26 minute player a night who should be able to come in off the bench and give you 16 to 20 because of the skill that he has.

Well, he's basically late 2000s in Jurbana. Sure. Big guy that comes off the bench. He can carry the offense for six minutes, hopefully. But maybe in crunch time, you don't want him out there because he's too slow.

So you have that role filled. What's the Paul George role? Do you start him? You have to start him.

The thing with the Sixers, and all of their fans would say this, is they just want to watch VJ and Maxi, and they want to see the team go up and down, and they know what the team's identity is. I agree. And they have these two guys that are in the way of that identity. I don't think Paul George can play that way anymore. Me either. So if you're them, it's like, maybe we're selling high in McCain. He wasn't even a lottery pick. He was my favorite pick in the draft.

Yeah, you know him I was all in. You're from Southern California, right?

Yeah, I loved him in high school. I think he's a real dude, but he played really well for a couple of weeks to start the season, got hurt. So maybe you're selling high in that, and it's a way to get out of the Paul George I don't know. I think Philly would ultimately probably say no to that, but I think your team, that's the trade they should be thinking. Totally agree with you. We'll take your terrible contract. We have these two expirings. You can get out of jail with whatever you have and give us an asset to do this.

I didn't hesitate Tate. I said, yes, please. For the record.

My fifth trade is my favorite one, and I'm going to give it to you. Let's go. Right after this break. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Your Friday night, she's got a ladder. Mba Happy Hour happening on FanDuel. Every Friday from 6: 00 to 7: 30 PM Eastern, FanDuel has got limited time specials to pregame the weekend. Boosts, bonuses, surprises, all live in the app. On Friday, for instance, Houston is playing San Antonio. I think San Antonio is in some trouble because they lost Dylan Harper. They don't have Dieran Fox yet, and the lack of an actual point guard, I think, is starting to hurt them a little. Houston's got a lot of size. I like Houston that game, but you could bet on that. Bet on whatever you want. Nba Happy hour every Friday from 6: 00 to 7: 30 Eastern, only on FanDuel. Officials a sportsbook partner of the NBA. Visit fanDuel. Com/bs to get started. Must be 21 plus present, select states are 18 plus than present in DC, Kentucky, Wyoming. Opt-in required. Rewards are non-metrable. Restrictions apply, including bonus and token expiration leg requirements. And max wager amount.

See terms at sportsbook. Fandr. Com. Game problem, call 1-800. Gamble or visit rg-help. Com. Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Shaky's, the People's Pizza Parlor. When it's game day, it's group day at Shaky's Pizza. Nothing beats piping Hot Pizza, a pitcher of ice cold beer, and rooting for your favorite team with your pals at Shaky's Pizza Parlor. I've done this. I'm going all in with Shaky's ultimate meat pizza, golden fried chicken, legendary crispy mojo potatoes, and you could order it online at shakies. Com. Or watch the game at your neighborhood Shakey's with handcrafted pizza, chicken, and mojos. Turn football fantasy into reality at Shakey's, the People's Pizza Parlor. My fifth trade is my favorite one out of all of them, but we're going to do it right after this break. Our friends from FanDuel, they put NBA fans in control right from tip-off, allowing us to choose our own reward. Before you place your bets, check out the FanDuel Sportsbook app. Choose your own reward that best fits your betting style. So for choose your own reward, I'm choosing my starting five so far this season.

The players that have impressed me knocked my socks off the most to date. I thought we could do this together. Gitty has to be number one. Number one.

Put them up there.

I'm so proud. I was like, so few of us like the Gitty Caruso trade for Chicago. I just always like it.

It was a tremendous win-win. An amazing win-win.

One of the better trades. Yeah, it was almost like a Kauai Jura Chille trade.

I think if you go back, anybody wants to go back and listen to the podcast of Bill Simmons and people from the Ringer talking about that trade, I think everybody was very like, Hey, this is a good trade. We were all like, high.

Yeah. All right, so Getty One. I got to say, I really like Saar. I think I would put him in my starting five. I think if you have a 20-year-old- It's nice of you to say that, but you don't have to do that because I'm sitting here.

There's been some other guys.

20-year-old, seven-foot, one guy who can make six threes in a game. That's not nothing.

That's not nothing. I agree. It's hard to say. A team that doesn't win any basketball games, it's really hard to get I'm playing with a point card.

By the way, my favorite guy in the Whizz is Kispert. That guy should be on a winning team at some point in his life. He's just a winning player. It's a shame to waste him on that team.

Very underrated golfer. He's excellent. He thinks he's the second best golfer in the NBA behind Steph Curry.

Wow. Tari Easton is my third guy.

Tarry Ethan. Is he really a revelation? He's established himself.

He's shooting 55% from three, I would Yes. I get that point. He's going to shoot threes like that.

I get that point, but all I'm saying is he's already in a certain class.

They're asking me... They said there was no criteria. I'm looking at the fanDuel rules here.

Let me bounce the name off.

I think they've been awesome.

How about... Well, let you finish because I know you go. Maybe you already have a guy. Maybe you already have this guy. Who? The Jake Leravia guy. You don't think for the Lakers?

The Snowtime Lakers?

Yes. Yes.

Part of the mayonnaise, boys?

There you go. Now we're talking. Protein Cup.

That's good. And I'll do Cedric Howard as my fifth one because I really like that guy. Great. Love him. No matter how you play, Fandos give me the power to choose your reward on your game this NBA season. Make your choice now. My fifth trade, my favorite one. You mentioned the Bulls earlier, and I intentionally held you off. They've been really fun to watch, and it dates back to last year. We talked about it when we did the over-unders. The over-under was like 32 and a half. We didn't understand it because they were so good down the stretch. They didn't really lose anybody, and we figured Buzell's would be better. What's interesting is all of it, they're six and one, and Gidey's been basically a triple-double this season. They're shooting the lights out. They have actually defense on the swing spots now. Jones has come in as a backup point guard, and the guy that hasn't played yet is Kobe White, who is in the final year of a $12 million deal. You know who needs a point guard house? Well, there's a few teams, but I would say Minnesota is leading the way.

Oh, wow. Yes, they do need a point guard.

Chicago has a big-ass trade exception that can make some funkiness with their trades in a good way. It's one of the few teams that with these modern rules, they can get pretty creative. They can take Kobe White, they could add somebody to him, they could take somebody back who makes more money than him. They have a lot of flexibility. But if you send him to Minnesota, a team that desperately needs a point guard, and you take back D. Fincenzo and Rob Dillingham and call it a day, I think I would do that if I was both teams.

What's in it for Chicago?

D. Fincenzo, another swingman shooter. He can get the Kevin Herder minutes or maybe share the Kevin Herder minutes or whatever. And then you're rolling the dice with Dillingham, hoping that down the road, he's more of an asset. Maybe you can get more from Kobe White. I don't know. But he's in an expiring deal making 12.

I mean, is Kobe White going to play better than Trey Jones?

I mean, the way Trey Jones has been playing, I don't know. That's what I'm getting at. Kobe White is a good player, though. He's on average 19, 20 a game.

Over 29 minutes. Trey Jones, isn't he 85 cents on the dollar, Kobe White?

Because the other The other way to go is you could talk to Houston about see if they're interested in a Rich guy, Reid. Try to do a little Reid Sheppard, some other contract, send them back Kobe Jones.

Kobe White.

Kobe White.

Not Trey Jones. Trey Jones and Kobe White.

You said Jones. I screwed up. Trey. Trey is right there. Trey is right there. Kobe Jones was a really good soccer player in the mid '90s. Okay. Houston is another thing, but I think Koby Jones is a live trade asset right now.

You said it again.

Kobe White. And I think Kobe White is a trade asset right now. And Kobe White. I think Kobe White is live in the Trade Machine.

I do like this a lot. Kobe White, underrated, and this Bulls team getting better. The only question I have is, is DiVincenzo, how does he fit with what this Bulls team is trying to do?

Maybe that's not enough. I had a lot of trouble with Minnesota because they don't I don't really have any picks. I think you could do swap stuff with them. I was just trying to figure out a way to get them there because if I'm Chicago, I'm now in a car keys situation. I've struck oil with Josh Gidey. This is not a sample size. This guy is dominating games. He's getting even like a crunch time. He's getting where he wants on the court and creating what shot he wants. You've got something really special happening here. I don't want Kobe White coming. I'm not going to pay him next year. I'd rather put my chips into the gitty basket, and I would try to trade him.

I mean, especially like, Buzales is everything you hoped he could be. Mother effort.

We were talking about that in the over-unders. We were hoping it was sitting there for him.

47% from the field, over 42% from three.

Yeah. Over 80% free.

Oh, he's a professional basketball player in the NBA.

Well, the thing with them when you watch them, and I've really enjoyed watching them all year, is multiple guys who beat somebody off the dribble and kick out or go to the basket. And they're just really hard to defend because you're always going backwards. And Kobe White fits into that. So they might decide we're just better off keeping him. But I think when you have a $12 million point guard and expiring contract in a league where nobody can make a trade, that's a really good asset. Maybe DiFrancenzo and Dillingham is not enough. I guess Dillingham, he was the eighth pick in the draft, and Minnesota gave up an unprotected 2032 first for him. So I would assume he's an asset. He's only 20. And it's the one asset they really have at this point. So whether that's a fair trade or not, I don't know. But the Kobe White thing, I'm really watching to see what they do. We've never seen Chicago spend money. They've been happy to go 40 and 42 every year, not pay the luxury tax. That's who they've been for 15 years. But they have a chance to...

It's really fun.

They also, if they wanted, they could take Kobe and a couple of their bigger contracts and go after an expensive guy.

Well, who's an expensive guy that we think is going to be- Like a guy in the '40s, 50 million range, like a real guy.

I'm not going to say a Jalen Brown, but like a Jalen Brown. Not actually Jalen Brown.

Not Jalen Brown.

Not actually Jalen Brown.

Unless, Buzelles is. Nobody wants to mess with Sabonis, right? Sabonis isn't...

Sabonis for Chicago? No. I think they would improve the wings if they did anything. That Patrick Williams, O'Coro, those guys. But fun team to watch. All right, that's it for The Trade Machine. We're moving to NBA. Any other basketball before we go? Any other basketball takes you want to get off? No. You believe in this Lakers thing yet?

How can you not? I'm super proud of myself. I stared at it for so long last night. The only basketball take for me to get off is I've started playing money line parlays. I stayed away from last night. The slate didn't line up for it, but the game I stared at long and hard was that Lakers-San Antonio game because I really wanted to bet the Lakers, and I'm glad that I stayed away from it. But I understand, but it's like that would have been too nerve-wracking. That late at night, I don't need that.

San Antonio is in a rough spot without point guards here. They don't have Fox yet, and they lost Harper, and they feel like they're a ball hand or short. I thought I watched a lot of that Phoenix game. You're right about this. Phoenix did work some stuff against them. All of a sudden, they seem very stagnant to me. They just need those guys back. I'm monitoring San Antonio because when they get all these guys back, I think they're going to go rocket ship.

Okay.

All right, football. I sent you, we are right in the... As we try to figure out Ringer 107 picks, we're right in the exact part of the season when everybody thinks they know who the playoff are going to be. And yet somebody comes out of nowhere and somebody has a swoon. And sometimes it's one team in each conference where it happens. So I mailed you all the candidates. And I think there's three teams that you could say have a chance to make a leap. And I'll just use the FanDuel playoff odds to show that this would be significant. Houston is three and five plus 520 to make the playoffs, and I think they fit all the criteria for a possible leap team. Minnesota is four and four. They were three and four. They won last week. If you're under 500, week seven or later, you fit this criteria. So they're four and four now. They're plus 430 for the playoffs. And then Arizona is three and 5 plus 980. So I'm just going to give you those three teams to start. Houston, Minnesota, Arizona. I'm going to tell you one of those three teams will be in the playoffs.

Which of those three would you pick?

The team that I think is the best of those three teams is Arizona.

I think you're right. That defense- I couldn't believe the plus 980. I thought that that seemed really high to me.

They haven't lost five games so far this season, but none of them by more than four points.

I have them with the adjusted record. I have them as three and one with four either or games. And all their losses in games have been close. And it seems like they're happier with their quarterback situation than they were.

To put it mildly, the problem with Arizona, the reason that the price, it's just a gauntlet. They are on the road at Seattle battled. They're home against San Francisco. Now, Jacksonville, I'm sure we'll get to today. Home against Jacksonville, that doesn't worry me. But on the road at Tampa, home against the Rams.

They have two easy games. At Cincinnati, home Jacksonville. And at Cincinnati, I don't even know how easy of a game that is because Burrow might be back. It's week 17.

Burrow is not coming back. What's the point of playing Joe Burrow on that terrible football team?

At Seattle, at Tampa, at Houston, at Sunsi, at Rams, left. And they're three and five. So they basically They'd have to go seven and two.

It's tough. I think you would say, Cincinnati, to me, is a win. They have Atlanta at home. That's a win. Atlanta is what a team. They're at Houston, I think, just because of the injuries. Houston and Arizona are very similar. And I think it's like you have them properly organized in the same class. This concussion situation with C. J. Stroud this weekend against Jacksonville. It just couldn't come at a worse time. And the Houston Texans were poised to do the thing that we picked them last week to do. We had that. That's stupid. It It was a cheap shot. He didn't hit him in the head, but he hit him as he slid down, and he got concussed from hitting his head off the turf. I feel like not enough has been made of the fact that that's a cheap shot, and it knocked the quarterback out. And that probably clenches for Houston, their inability to make the playoffs this season because they were kicking Denver's ass in that game.

Out of those three, I have Houston as the team that I would pick, even though I think Arizona is the best of the three. Because Houston's three and five. I have them at three, three, and two either or games so far. They're plus 5, 20 to make the playoffs. But if you look at the schedule, first of all, they'd have to win the Jacksonville game this week, which is home, which is going to come up in Ringer 107 because I have hard thoughts on that game. At Tennessee, they could be five and five in 10 days, right? A little more doable at that point.

It could be.

Home Buffalo, at Indy, at KC, home Arizona, Home Las Vegas, at the Chargers, home Indy, and that game might be nothing to Indy. So they might be locked into a one or two seat.

The problem is they'll be five and five. I like the idea of where you're going. But then Buffalo, Indy, Kansas City, Arizona, those are the next four. That's how you define what- They have to go two and two. Yeah, they at an absolute bare minimum, must go two and two.

The question for me is, can nine and eight make the playoffs in the AFC? Because you have four teams. I have five teams that I think are going to be in the playoffs, New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver, and KC. I know KC is the eighth seed, but I just think those five teams are going to be in. I'd be shocked, really genuinely shocked. Really, genuinely shocked, right? Would you have any of those out? No. New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver, Casey, they're all in. So there's two spots left. And we know one of those spots goes to the AFC North, and then the other goes to the Wild Card. See, in Pittsburgh at five and three. Again, two spots left for these four teams. Pittsburgh, five and three, they're minus 115 to make the playoff some fan dual. It seems like the right price. Baltimore, three and five, they're minus 170. Chargers, six and three, they're minus 192. In Jacksonville, five and three, they're minus 158. So the odds are off. There's actually value in playing all of those to not make the playoffs, right? Because only two of them are going to make it. So you're probably going to win that either way.

I would have the chargers out. I think the Joe out thing finished them.

I agree with this.

I just think they can't block.

Cannot.

On top of some of the other shit that's happened to them. I think Herb is just going to get banged up.

They're so vulnerable to pressure.

They have a Philly home game. They have Pittsburgh this week at KC. They have at Denver last week of the season. It just feels like 9: 00 and 8: 00 to me. I think they can go 3: 00 and 5: 00. That would be one of my nos. And then Jacksonville, I I just think is fraudulent. No, they're out. That's what they're supposed to say many times. No.

The two teams that I have in, you didn't ask, are- No, AFC. Yeah, Baltimore and Denver. I have Baltimore and Denver.

I had Denver in already.

You said AFC West when you ran through the teams because you had the Chiefs in, and then you said another spot for the AFC West.

I had New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver, and KC. I had those five.

Okay, okay. So two left. I see. Oh, okay.

Now I got it. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chargers, Jacksonville, Houston. Pick two. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chargers, Jacksonville, Houston.

I have Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

I think that's right. Houston would have to take one of their spots. I think is how this plays out.

This is how stupid I am. We'll get to it in Ringer. We're 107. Okay. I really like Pittsburgh in LA this week.

Unfortunately, I did, too. I had it marked down. Damn it.

It makes a ton of sense.

You know what killed Houston? That game last week. It did. They'd be four and four right now. I think they'd be fine.

With a game in hand against Denver, which is an important thing.

Going six and... So there's three and five that have to go seven One and two down the stretch to get to 10 wins.

I can't get there with Houston. I can't get there.

All right. The only reason I bring all this up is I think it informs how we should be thinking about Ringer 107, because this is a fork in the road for the play-ups in a lot of ways. In the NFC, where we have four teams that I think are in, Philly, Green Bay, Tampa, and Seattle, there's three spots left. And yet the Rams are minus 750 to make the playoffs at 6: 00 and 2: 00. Detroit is minus 4: 30 to make the playoffs at 5: 00 and 3: 00. And San Francisco is minus 3: 85 to make the playoffs at 6: 00 and 3: 00. This is all in FanDuel. So FanDuel is basically saying the other four spots, 4: 1 odds against these teams making it basically, which is their prohibitive favorites. So Chicago is plus 1: 85, they're five and three. Carolina is five and four, they're plus 2: 35 with a pretty easy schedule. Then Minnesota, four and four, and Arizona, 3: 5. There's a mild bears case house. I actually was surprised they were plus 1: 85. I thought that should have been a little closer to even because they got the Giants this week.

They could be 6: 3 at Minnesota, Pittsburgh, at Philly, at Green Bay, Cleveland home, Green Bay home, at San Francisco, home, Detroit. I think they can get to at least nine wins. But would you go chalk or would you have an outlier? Detroit, Rams, San Francisco, last three spots. Would you go chalk?

Yeah.

You would. You would go chalk.

The parlay that we talked about and we've been pursuing over the last couple of weeks still feels right to me. Even though Chicago, I want to give them credit because they keep surprising with changing the script of things that they can't do, and then they start doing it successfully. I think they're the best rush team on offense, the best running team on offense. Over the last maybe at least three weeks, maybe month. The combination of the André Swift and the guy that you picked up in free agency last week for his dominant 170. Monagai? Monagai. Monagai? Yeah, Monagai. Not a guy, Monagai. Yes.

Well, so Detroit, Ram's, Detroit, San Francisco, all to make the playoffs right now is minus 112. Basically, even odds, those are the three. If I had to pick a party crasher, I think I would pick Chicago just because they've had the turnover luck all year. It's weird, but with turnover luck, it seems to change season to season and not during the season. Once you're in that turnover, good shit's happening. It feels like it just keeps going. I have no anecdotal evidence. I mean, no hard core evidence, more anecdotal. But sometimes it feels like there's a horse shoe up the ass team in each conference every year. And this year, it's Pittsburgh and Chicago. It just feels like a run that keeps going.

The team I'd like to fade, based on all the vulnerability we saw out of them last week, is Detroit, because that offensive line has revealed something to us.

They've had a lot of injuries.

The injuries He's in the secondary. But they still have three games against the worst teams in the NFC East, which are all of the NFC East teams except for the Eagles. They get to play Washington this week. Now, eight and a half is a ridiculous number, preposterous. Under no circumstance do I tell anybody to lay eight and a half with the Detroit Lions on the road outdoors against Washington. They might end up covering it.

If Daniels was playing, that line is four?

Three and a half, right. Exactly. And the difference between Marriott and Daniels is not five points.

Well, this year's version of Daniels.

Sure. Yes. I'm here to tell you. But Detroit also still gets the Giants. They still get Dallas. And so otherwise, because their schedule ends with two division games on the road against Minnesota and on the road against the bears. If they're We're duking it out with the bears, that bear's last game of the season might be for that playoff spot. So what are the odds for the bears to make?

Plus 185. Well, and then Carolina, we should mention quickly. They're five and four. I have them at two and two with five either or games. That's not bad. But they're playing New Orleans this week. They're going to be six and four. At Atlanta next week, they could be seven and four. At San Francisco, who knows who's left on that team. Play the Rams by week at New Orleans, Tampa, Seattle, and then at Tampa last week of the season, but Tampa will at least quench whatever they needed. There's a pretty easy case for nine wins for them. And then all that would need is one upset after that. Then all of a sudden, they're 10 and seven in the playoffs.

I haven't been 8 and 8 going through the schedule the way you just did going into-8 and 8, but like-week 17.

All of a sudden, they beat the Rams in Carolina. And you're like, oh, my God. My issue with looking at the playoff picture this year is there's no, I can't believe this. When we get to January, we're like, I can't fucking believe this team's in the playoffs. And that team is there every year. And I don't know who that team is this year, but it's going to be a team. It's going to be the bears. It's going to be the Panthers.

What's the Carolina odds to make the playoff?

Plus 235.

So a tiny bit on the bears at plus 185 and a tiny bit on Carolina at plus 235 to offset the plus 340 seven-team parlay for the NFC picture that I bet two weeks ago.

That's what it was, plus 340?

Plus 340.

When I sent it to you.

And then it dropped because Washington went out and put up a stinker against the Chiefs. Washington at that point was still in the running.

San Francisco is the weak link in that threesome. Yes. Yes, they are. With the amount of injuries they've had. And they still have at Zona, they still have an at Indy. They got the Rams this week where they're getting four and a half points in that game. They have Seattle last week of the season. They're at Cleveland one week. I could easily see them losing five more games. I was telling you and Sal and Hanchau, I had made some San Francisco bets before the year. I bet the under ten and a half. And when I was in Boston, you can look at Fandil they offer you, though, do you want to buy this out now?

Cash out.

Yeah, you can cash this out if you're not happy. So they offered me 85% of the Niners' under bet. Maybe even mid-90%. They're like, You can have all this now, or do you want to ride it out? And I was like, Oh, that's interesting. So FanDuel doesn't think the Niners are winning 11 games because they really want me to cash this bet out for 90 %. Not a good sign. All right, we're going to take one more break and do some pics. All Ringer 107. We're one game under 500. Some bad luck last week with Houston. I just felt like we've been banging out three and twos, four and ones for a while. The Houston one, what can you do? Stay away this week. I'd like to stay away from Panthers minus five and a half against the Saints, if that's possible. I don't want to lay that many points with the Panthers.

Say less. Don't have to argue about that one.

Browns minus two and a half against the Jets who just traded two of their best guys on defense and look like a classic U. A. Theory situation. I don't want to take Dylan Gabriel on the road. No. And Jack kids might not be playing.

Whether, all kinds of stuff.

Whether. I don't want any part of that. I don't want that in a Ringer 107 That's up. Lions at Washington, lane eight and a half. I thought about the Lyons in a parlay situation, but first of all, they screwed us last week. No. Second of all, we're not taking Washington. They've lost by 22, 21, 24 the last three weeks. And it seems like if they fall behind by 10, the game's over. And their defense is 38 yards per play, 29th pass. I have no idea what's going to happen this game. I don't really want to have money on it. You agree?

I'm not going to make a case that we should bet on Washington. I'm just saying the number is crazy. It's way over inflated. It's not a good number.

No, it is. It's our flash sale line of the week. Yes, it is. It's do you like Washington at five and a half? Here's It's eight and a half. Right now, 12 hour lightning deal.

But now, Washington can get pressure. They don't have no edge pressure, but they can get pressure up the middle.

Well, it's also that this is the season. If they lose this game, the season is over. In their home.

And I do think they're going to lose this game, but eight and a half is preposter. Anything over a countdown is ridiculous.

House, remember when Washington was awesome and they went to the last year?

It was last year. I enjoyed it. It was amazing.

It was great. It feels like it was about eight It was just last year. I think Seahawks Cardinals is a stay away from me. It's Seahawks home minus six and a half. I know there's some cases for the cards playing them. You've I mentioned them earlier. Every game has been close, et cetera. Seattle's advanced metric stuff is pretty nuts, and I want to see somebody beat them before I go against them. I also don't want to lay seven in a must-win game for Arizona.

I don't know what that number is based on. If Kyler Murray was playing, then I could see this number making sense because Mike McDonald would absolutely have something cooked up for Kyler. But the six and a half is not a good number. I think Arizona is much better than that. And Seattle is super gettable at home.

On the flip side, you could say that number is not high enough because Seattle is first in DBOA in the whole league. Aaron Schatz said they had the fourth best DBOA through eight games since 1978. So they're not just really good. They're fucking killing teams. Their D is second in gets a run, second year per play, third for quarterback hits. Their passing offense is obviously awesome. Here's my fear with this one. I think they're good, especially post-Shaheed trade, a little too much buzz.

I agree. I think six and a half is a bet.

This feels like a classic, Oh, and in Arizona, Arizona is up 10-0. I don't want any part of this game. Next one is Bear's Home against the Giants. They're laying four and a half. My eyes keep drifting to it, and I keep trying to talk myself into it, but it feels too square. It's in the Vegas zone for a reason. I mean, the Giants run defense is awful. I love that Bear's running back last week. I think he can run all over these guys. But yeah, you look at the turnover luck the bears have had some of the other signs, and it's a stay away from me. I wish the sign was like one and a half.

Then that'd be fine. Then it would be worth betting on. Yeah, no chance. I won't let us bet on the bears under that number.

Do we want to go near Packers-Egals?

I have a strong conviction on one side of that game.

Well, let's hear it. The packers are favored by two and a half in Green Bay. What is your strong conviction?

I really think this is an opportunity for the Eagles to reassert themselves at the top of the NFC class. I think the Eagles are super live to go get the one seed in the NFC. It is there for the taking. In view of the trades that they made, they have told us that that is their desire. They have been very good against Green Bay historically. And the argument in favor of Green Bay is, will they show up or won't they? Every other game, they've played the good teams in the league very well, Green Bay has. But it is inexcusable to have the loss that they had last week against Carolina. And their receiver room, the only guy that I can look at and know confidently is healthy coming into this game is Dobbs. I think that-Who wears the kazoo helmet?

Yes, he does.

Yes, he does. I think that it is yet to be written how impactful the absence of Kraft is on that offense.

Manthee Golden playing, maybe not playing at all. Who knows?

Kraft, especially, though, is the thing to me.

But Kraft Yeah, Kraft. We talked about that. Shiel and I talked about that Tuesday. Good. Shiel thought he was the best tight in the league.

Right. Yes. The different things that Green Bay could do. They can't really run the ball. They I don't really run the ball. I think it's a great situation to get into the Eagles.

Can I interest you in maybe a little slight bump up and some tease or parlay situation with the Eagles to get them over four?

I'll listen.

I think you're right on the Eagles. My one fear is Green Bay doesn't turn the ball over, and they're great on third down. They're second on third down, second on turnover. So when they have the ball, they have it for a while. The Eagles are 26th on third down, 22nd in causing turnovers. And my fear is you take the Eagles and the packers just have these long, boring seven-minute drives, and then the Philly gets the ball back and they go three and out, and the packers have the ball for eight minutes again. I just was playing that in my head. Dvoa, Green Bay seventh and Philly's 11th. I'm with you on... I like the Eagle spot because I agree with you on Kraft. I think that was a bigger issue than maybe the lines are giving credit for. Do you have an opinion on Charger Stealers? Because that was in the maybe camp for me.

I think that it is basically a West Coast home game for the Pittsburgh Stealers. I think that the place is going to be packed with the Steelers fans. And I thought that the adjustment that they made on defense and the way that they played the Colts was amazing. Now, yes, they generated six turnovers. Are they going to generate six turnovers against the chargers? It feels unlikely. But they showed an ability to adapt. And they took away from the Colts what the Colts like to do And we've been sitting here waiting for this Pittsburgh defense to reveal itself to us all season long. They worked in too high cover. They just showed a lot of flexibility that they, for whatever reason, and been unwilling to show us earlier.

And I think that this- Did they play some Robert Bernays?

I think they did.

Did the Steaksaw splits?

I think they had that one. There were some simulated pressure, some simulated- Some simulated? Worcestershire pressure.

Oh, interesting. Yeah. Did they do any ex-robber?

There was probably some ex-robber Tabasco.

Well, the stats say Pittsburgh's Defense fucking sucks.

Yeah, they do.

This year, they've given up 278. 3 passing yards per game. We watched it. Per game?

Yeah. Watch it all season long.

They're 32nd in the league against the pass, and they're second in turnovers, which makes no sense. Here's a concerning stat. The Cleveland Browns have 134 first downs. Would you say that's a good offense?

It doesn't feel like it.

The Steelers have 139. They're five more. They basically have the same number of first downs as the Cleveland Browns. It makes me nervous. They're also 30th in the run. I don't know. This is still a maybe to me. Let's go to the parlay section of this, where I have the Bills' Dolphins minus nine and a half. I would love to put the Bills' Money Line with a pick and adjust the line just a little bit. Where we have the Bills' first run, third pass, or third yards per play. Miami's 30th against the run, 28 yards per play. Miami stinks, by the way, in case you haven't noticed. Buffalo's defense, second against the pass. All these good matchup stuff. Plus, every week we've had a new MVP, and this feels like it's the Josh Allen. Hey, actually, I'm the MVP week where he just kills the Dolphins. Well, he is I'm scared right now after that performance against the Chiefs. No, I know, but nobody's like... Each week somebody's had a, Is he the MVP? But we haven't had the Josh Allen, Is he the MVP week yet? Maybe it's this week. I would love to put them in with something.

I was thinking that something could be the Ravens in Minnesota unless you want to do the Eagles.

Let me hear the... I love the Ravens this week, so you're not going to have to sell me.

Ravens, this This line drifted a little high. This line went to Ravens minus four and a half in Minnesota. But it's an absolute must one for Baltimore, and they're completely healthy. Could Minnesota really beat Detroit, Baltimore, and back to back weeks? No. That's what I keep thinking.

No.

I was thinking, for instance, we could take the Ravens line to two and and a half, throw it with the Bill's money line, and that gets us in the minus 120.

Fine.

We could also take the Eagles's line up to four and a half, put that with the Bills money line, same bet. I think we should do one of those two.

I'd rather put... Because one of those two bets, I feel like we need as a standalone bet.

So which one do you- Well, we can figure that out. Yeah. Well, we'll go through the rest of these. Just talk me out of the Falcons cults. Falcons plus six and a half. I'm dying to bet the cults.

The line's too high. I'm dying to bet the cults.

It's in Indy. I'm sorry, it's not in Indy. It's in Berlin. It's in Germany. Yeah, it's in Berlin.

Which franchise of those two do I think, is going to be better prepared. The fucking Falcons can't figure out how to travel to San Francisco and be competitive. They can travel internationally and have their shit together enough to put up a modicum of resistance against this Colts team that's dying after getting its pants pulled down on that stage with Pittsburgh to show everybody- That wards can cuss and Garner is supposedly cleared, but Garner is going to go from the Jets to the Colts and then fly to Germany, and that's his first game, and he's going to be good?

I'm a little dubious.

Better than their alternative. Better than the alternative, that's for sure.

I thought the Falcons were pretty good last week.

They were.

I thought they played a great spot for them.

They did. They did play a great... I don't think they're bad. They're not good.

This does violate our Europe roll, which is why I had to put an asterisk next to it. I would probably lean Falcons, but I think we have to stay away. Okay. Fucking A. I like the Niners. I wish I didn't. Niners are plus four and a half at home against the Rams.

You're supposed to grab all points with the Niners. That's what we were supposed to do.

They played in week five. It was an overtime game. San Francisco won 26-23.

The Rams won every aspect of that game. The Rams beat the crap out of the Niners in that game until there was a fumble at the goal line.

Niners are home. There's all kinds of weird Rams kicker shit going on. So I feel like there's a free three points in this game. It's Niners plus four and a half, but it's really Niners plus seven and a half because somebody in the Rams is missing a kick.

Interesting.

There's a lot of the McShea versus Shanehan stuff, I think, has been overblown because the Rams did beat them twice last year. But it's a nice, fun, long rivalry. I don't know. How good do you think the Rams are? Because the advanced metrics say they're better than what I feel like I'm watching with my eyes.

Their defense is gettable. Their secondary is super gettable. It's just that they've been able to put pressure on teams, and they've been able to- Third and sack, fourth and hits. Yeah, there you go. So that is how they've addressed the fact that their secondary is crazy vulnerable.

I think it's too many points. I have it marked down.

Okay.

Next one, Bucs-Pats. Bucs minus two and a half in Tampa against the Pats. Listen, we're under 500 and it's week 10, and I have no problem going against my team for one week. I'll still root for them. Okay. I think this line is too low. I just think this is a horrible matchup for the Pats. I don't like it at all because the Pats are great stopping the run. It's not going to really matter. I don't even think Bucky Irving is going to play. I think that Tampa is going to throw the ball and move the ball and do the stuff they do with Baker. The Pats, Atlanta was going up and down the field on them throwing the ball last week. I think they have problems covering tight ends. They have problems covering running backs. There's receiver issues with the Pats, whereas Boody, the moment he left the game, they were never the same. They lost their deep threat when they lost him. Diggs is playing half the game. If you look at the snaps, Matt Collins played 60% in the snaps last week, and Kyle Williams played 50 %. And also, Ramondre is hurt.

They're not really running the ball. I just think they're due for a shit game. They haven't been down by 10 points to anybody since week one. I don't like the spot. I I think this- We're in lockstep.

I was worried that I was going to have to talk you into this.

I absolutely love Tampa. I feel bad because I didn't want to go anti-Pats, but we have- It's not anti-Pats. This is under 107. We have to get it.

We're in lockstep to Tampa as a play this week.

At that number- Plus, if the Pats win, I'm happy to sacrifice the under 107 pick. Fuck them. Texans, Jaguars. I can't believe we're going back to the wild, but I like the Texans again.

I just can't with Davis Mills. I just can't do I just can't.

Well, it might have to be one of my picks.

It could be your pick. I watched it. We were in a perfect situation with the Denver game.

I'm aware.

The Jaguars, let there be no doubt. I mean, Trevor Lawrence, his completion percentage over expectation. He is in the company of players like Kam, what's the... Kam Ward and Dylan I have his EPA.

He's 46. Yes. Fields is 37. Two is 43. Kirek Cousins is 52. So he's barely better than Kirek Cousins, who was dead? You want to play Houston here? I just don't think Jacksonville against that defense is doing jack shit. Let me make the Davis Mills case for him. He's 5, 19, and 1 as a starter. Oh, wait, that didn't help me.

Shit. That's your opener.

No, I got to make a different case. Came in cold last Sunday.

They didn't know he was going to play.

This whole week, they didn't know he was going to play.

They made a plan for him this week.

Last week, they didn't make a plan for him. Now he knows he's going to play. It's like, Hey, we're playing Jacksonville. Jacksonville, 27th against the pass. 31st sacks this year. Pretty good against the run. First in penalties. That's another Jacksonville thing. They have 10 penalties a game. Davis, Here's the plan. You're going to do this. You're going to do this. We got Nico back. Third and five. We have this pet play for you. They had the whole week to plan them.

How starved Jacksonville is in the receiver room.

They don't have Thomas or Hunter.

To think that Jacobi Meyer is going to be the... They had to go in that direction.

Yeah, I watched the Raiders game last week, and I don't remember him doing anything. I remember or Brock Bauer's doing stuff. Sure. By the way, I forgot to mention during the indie thing. I was so mad. I missed this on Tuesday. A couple of people have mentioned it to me. New Owner syndrome with the sauce gardener trade. It was a basketball trade.

Very good. I like this.

The daughters took over the team. Everybody loves the daughters. This was like, We got a Sauce Gardner, let's go get him. It was a classic new owner trade.

It really was.

Two first, Gardner for Sauce Gardner. We got to do this. Houston's defense is top six everywhere. I just feel like the defense wins the game. Mills makes two throws. They're going to be able to run the ball. It's minus. Is it still minus one and a half? It's minus one and a half.

Wait, the Texans are underdogs in this game.

Did it flip again? It's flipped. I'm telling you. No, yeah. Texans are underdogs. They were favored four hours ago.

For what we're For Ringer 107 purposes, what are they?

They're plus 1. 5.

So they're underdogs.

There you go. Yeah, they're underdogs.

That's what we want. Okay.

All right, we're going to take a break, and then House and I are going to come back and figure out the Ringer 107 once in for all. All right, today's Ringer 107, it's brought to you by Fandil. We have five pics that we like that we figured out over the long commercial break. You'll have no idea how long it was. This is House's pick. House gets a every week. House, you picked the Bucs minus two and a half over the Patriots. What was your case?

The case is the case that you made for how to New England is. It's a tough spot. It's Bucs. It's Tampa coming off of a buy, restored Both in a lot of skill positions, even with Bucky Irving still missing up a class for New England. New England has been impressive, but this is a real heavyweight that needs to win games to finish out the season. So I like Tampa at home.

Yeah, the Pats can come out of this and still be only three losses in with only a couple of games left in this season that are hard, and in two Jets games as well. Yeah, it's a tough spot. Put this way, I'd be very surprised if the Pats won this game with some of the injuries on offense, with the way they blocked the last couple of weeks, 17 sacks in three weeks, with the way they've been covering tight ends and running backs, this is a tough spot for them. Next pick, we're going to do a little parlay. Ravens down to minus two and a half in Minnesota. So Ravens have to win by three in a must-win game. And if you believe the Ravens are still a Super Bowl contender, there's no way they can't win this game against JJ McCarthy in Minnesota. And we're going to put that with the Bills' money line against the Miami Dolphins. And that is exactly minus 120. House, we barely made it. If it had been one inch another way, we lose that partly. So anyway, that's minus 120. Ravens Wins minus two, now Bill's Money Line. And I could see both of those where both teams win by two touch downs.

Me too. I feel like we're going to be smooth sailing with that parlay. Next one is another Joe House favorite. It's the Eagles plus two and a half in Green Bay, and I agree. The craft injury, the uncertainty in the wide receiver room, the Eagles needing to play a good game. All their stats are like...

It's the pass rush for the Eagles that I think we're going to see for the first time. Remember how dominant they were down the stretch and through the playoffs? We have the return of Nolan Smith. We have the addition of the Jalen Phillips trade. We have the addition of the Jalen Phillips. Now we're talking now.

Yeah, now we got some dudes.

And look, this is the vulnerability of Green Bay. They have the training wheels on Jordan Love because that offensive line isn't quite 28th in run block win rate, the packers. So they don't intimidate you with establishing the run, Green Bay, and they can't set up play action because teams aren't taking the run serious.

London at game two for this. Yeah. Yeah, this is a nice eagles. We've now reclaimed our territory spot. I like it. So eagles plus two and a half, that's our third pick. The Niners. This is my pick. I just think it's too many points, and I can only name four guys in their defense at this point. But Niners plus four and a half at home against the Rams. You're getting an extra three points from the miss field goal that the rims are going to have during this game. So it's a flash sale. You're getting it at nine or seven and a half. I just think these games are going to be close. With all these NFC West games, I just feel like that's how it's going to go all season. They're all going to come down the wire. Maybe Seattle can elevate above these teams. But the Niners, it's a little bit of a... I hate the word must win, but it's a You don't want to go six and four, lose. Yeah, but they stole their split. Now, you split with the Rams.

They stole that split by winning in week five the way they did.

Yeah. I just don't want to be six and four with half my team in the hospital.

Fair enough.

Then if you're the Rams, it's a little bit of a must win because you don't want to lose every tiebreaker to the Niners, potentially. But I don't know. It feels like there's some voodoo against the Niners. Fando asking me to cash out of my Niners under ten and a half made me suspicious. We'll see if they can fight the voodoo off this week. Texans plus one and a half at home against the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence, favored in Houston against one of the three best defenses in the league? What are we doing? No. Here's my impression of Trevor in the third quarter.

With the beautiful locks.

Here's my impression of Trevor in the fourth quarter.

Eyes in the back of the head, hands covering the eyes, hands covering the back of the head.

D'mico Ryan's owe us, too. A little bit. He owe us. The 14-second drive with the minute 14 left on your own 10-yard line, he owe us. My word. Anyway, we're taking the Texans plus one and a half. To recap, Bucks minus two and a half, Ravens minus two and a half with Bill's Moneyline Parlay minus 120, eagles plus two and a half, Niners plus four and a half, Texans plus one and a half. I like that we have a couple of home dogs this week, too.

Yeah, I feel the same way.

Some home cooking. And I can't believe we went against my team. But that was the Ringer 107, and it was presented by FanDuel. Did you like the sauce gardener trade?

I did. I understand the- You're always a mark for trading multiple firsts for a good player.

You've always loved that.

Because he's a good player. You don't have to wonder. He's a first-round pick that is like, how many of those first-round picks that they traded are going to be as good as Sauce Gardener? Tell me the answer to that, and then we can assess this. But look, this Colts team recognizes the window and recognizes they have it. It's the part of their team that is the most vulnerable because of injury and the talent that they had there. I have absolutely no issue whatsoever with them going for it.

It's like when you went got Marshawn Vladimir last year. It was- He was one of your favorite commanders.

That's not true. And good luck to him and the rest of his... I don't think he's going to have much of a football career after this, but to the rest, to whatever happens to him in life, good luck to him.

Can we talk about the guillotine league really fast? Go ahead.

Before we go? Go ahead.

Are you still alive in the guillotine League?

You took all of my good players. I had- Yeah, you're not alive. This is the beauty of the guillotine. I had a great team. I mean, I had an amazing team. I just I had a week. I had B. John Robinson going up against the Dolphins, and he produced four fantasy points. I had Caleb Williams in a good situation. Oh, yeah. I did take Caleb Williams. I can't remember. You took all my guys. I had Bucky Irving.

There's two strategies. One is in the guillotine league, for people that don't know, you start out with 17 teams, 16 teams, however many teams you want to have. Lowest team every week gets voted out. So we started. I voted out.

It just gets cut.

Well, it's just cut. You're just cruelly... That's it. And your players become available and people can bid on them. And there's two ways it can go. One is you have a thousand bucks to spend bidding more for the guys like when Bija and Robinson becomes available, or you try to get cagey and see long you can last with the team you picked. Pick around the edges, but wait until there's less teams. I chose the latter strategy and almost lost twice. I probably should have lost. I don't really think I should be alive, but I looked out. I had a couple of work. I had a couple of work. The week that I got cut. I barely made it.

You beat me on Monday Night Football with Isiah Pacheco running for 48 yards or whatever. That's how I got cut.

We both had terrible weeks and I barely edged you out. But I had the most money this week, and When somebody's team got cut. All of a sudden, it was Josh Allen was available, and James Cook, and Jamar Chase, and Jalen Waddle, all these dudes. Good team. I had the most money. I had like 630 bucks. Jeff Chau had 500. Then nobody else had more than 180. I was planning it out. I actually outwitted Jeff Chou, who runs business for The Ringer in Spotify Studio. So I'd outwitted him. Just flat out, I bid $2. 51 for Josh Allen and 251 for James Cook, thinking Jeff would go for one, beat him on both of those, and then got your bar chase, too. And now I'm in the driver's seat. And I just stuck it to Jeff Chou. It was great.

Sure.

Mr. Who's the business? Yeah. Who's the business guy now?

I'm not privy. Once you get cut, you can't go back and look. And honestly, I don't know why I would. But what did he bid? What'd Chou bid on those guys?

I don't know. You know what he bid? Not enough. So here's my team. Josh Allen, Jamir Gibbs, James Cooke, Ameca Agbuka, Quentin Johnston, George Kittle, Sam Laporta, and D. K. Metcalf.

It's a pretty good team.

That's a pretty good one. It's pretty good. And this is what happens if you can somehow survive and then go all in in week 9, week 10. But now that everyone knows that strategy, I don't know what the counter strategy is to that. I guess it would just be drafting.

Don't have guys get hurt.

Well, that's the thing. The other guillotine league I was in, we had Lamar, and he got hurt week four, and it was like, I'm done.

So you're done. That's right.

Yeah, you're done. You got to get a little healthy. But you liked it, though.

I loved it. Are you kidding me? I did a good job drafting. I was very proud of myself. You just catch a dry week and you're done. You just go home.

I'd rather be done versus have the carcass of my mediocre fantasy team drag on for 14 weeks.

You know what I mean? I'm in a league where my team is one and eight. I did an auto draft, and the rankings that... It was CBS. I'll call them out. I mean, it was an abomination. They should be embarrassed claiming that they have fantasy experts. All I did was hit auto draft and went to the 10th overall pick in a non-PPR league. They gave me Lamar Jackson. Like, what? I need a fucking running back at the 10th pick. Whoever the best running...

Well, couldn't you have set that in your settings?

This is the point of autodraft. You're the fucking expert.

I'm not telling you the strategy. Maybe AI will make this better. Maybe AI will be used for some good.

It's so stupid. So it's fine. But I do diligently set a lineup every week because I have integrity, and it's for the integrity of the league. I mean, I made six trades or acquisitions this past week.

But yes. Did you just praise your sofa making moves in a fantasy league?

Just maintaining the integrity of the league, not just walking away from my hot trash autodraft, CBS bot, go fuck yourself, hot garbage scenario.

Hey, one other thing before we go. It looks like It looks like the Sunday Ringer pregame show is going to be available on all the FanDuel RSNs.

Let's go. How about that?

So if you have one of those FanDuel RSNs where you see goalic and Golic ads, that's usually one of them. We're going to be on those and we're going to be on them with the Ringer gambling show as well. So a little extra market share.

A great way to spend your Sunday morning. All we do is give out big We've had winners.

It's 11: 00 AM this week, though. We're starting early. It's a two-hour show at 11: 00 AM.

Why can't we start at 10: 00?

All the way to kick off.

Fine. Start at 9: 30. I'm here. We're doing the games. We're trying to give out winners.

There's a good chance I'll be sitting in some airport watching it because my flight has been delayed for 19 hours. You might have to host Guest Aligns with Sal.

Just come down to DC. You should have a great time.

That might have to do that, actually.

Come see Cornheiser. We'll have a great time together.

Cornheiser. He's never leaving.

Leaving what?

He just signed again.

Why? Why? It's a great life.

He's been telling us he was going to retire for 10 years.

He plays golf and he does the It's a great life. I really admire it.

Do you have any farewell thoughts for ESPN bet?

Oh, is it gone?

It's gone. They're wrapping up.

They tried.

Best of luck. Too late to the party.

A little bit late.

Yeah, it's a wrap. Anything else before we go?

Nothing. Okay. Some great golf in Europe.

Great golf in Europe?

Well, it's actually the DP World that is playing in their race to the whatever cup. I think they're in the Middle East. They are in the Middle East. They're playing somewhere in Dubai. But all the best guys are playing. The entire Ryder Cup team for Europe is playing.

The team you won money on.

John Rom and Tiro Hatt.

It was your team. Those are your guys. Yeah. All right, house.

Good time.

My favorite NBA trade that I came up with was which one?

What was the last one? Well, honestly- Kobe Kobe Jones, Kobe White. No, I like John Morant to Miami better.

That's it. So that was the chalk one.

Makes a lot of sense.

It's a winner. For content. All right. See you, house. All All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to House and Gehow and Eduardo as well. I am going to, hopefully, have a podcast on Sunday. I'm flying back on Sunday to the West Coast. Is this going to be a good idea with what's going on with airports right now? We're about to find out. If you see me Sunday night, I'll be happy. You'll be happy. Everyone will be happy. Have a great weekend.

Must be 21 plus in President Select States for a Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus on President DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming.

Gambling problem, call 1-800 Gamble or visit rg-help. Com. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat-in-connectget or mdgamblinghelp. Org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema. Org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts, or call 877-8 Hope, N-Y or text Hope, N-Y in New York.