Transcript of A Hawks Power Play, Plus a Round 1 Playoff Mega-Preview With Joe House and Billy Gil

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All right, 2: 15 Pacific Time.

Joe House is there. We're going to talk football in a second. But House's team made a big basketball trade. You got Trey Young. We've joked about it for years. We wondered if he was the perfect Wizard. You were appalled for the last week or so as the rumors started. And then you make a trade where there's no pick in it. And I'm not sure which team should be more assaulted that they didn't get a pick in this Trade, Trey Young for Kispert and McCollum, two expiring contracts. The trade happened a while ago. There's been 100 podcasts about it, but none of those podcasts have an actual Washington Bullets fan on So Trey Young, you get in the Jersey. What's happening?

Yeah, I love that you went bullets. That's appropriate, right? Because we're OGs and we're old school, and I'm coming from it from an Ogie, old school perspective. I will tell you that I have come all the way around.

I knew it. Because you were mad yesterday. I was like, I'm going to give this 18 hours. Let's push this back in the oven.

Great. If you think about this from the perspective of trying to enhance your asset pool, it was a good trade for Washington. It was a good day for Washington.

And we will start- Plus you outbid zero other teams. The market was robust.

I will have my- Even the Kings were like, We're out. I have my quibbles, but here's the thing. We started yesterday with one player in the top 100, and now we have two. That's a good starting point, right? Ceeja McCollum- 19 hours after the trade, that's where you've landed?

Is that where you're trying to tuck yourself into it, the top 100?

Here's the thing. The most important thing for the Washington basketball franchise in 2026 is to suck. And this trade absolutely, positively helps them suck because Trey Young has an injury that has kept him out of quite a bit of his own teams, the Atlanta Hawks games this season. And I think that trend will continue. It also is a very low cost for Washington way of looking at a distressed asset.

I love that you're like an autopilot with the explanation. You're dying inside. I will tell you. You're dying inside.

I've had a chance. I went on local radio. I went over to the Sports Junkies this morning. It was great.

The Sports junkies. I love those guys.

Our guys love those guys. I know. I went on Toronto radio today. I'm all over the place.

What the fuck is happening with the house? This Netflix thing has really turned it around. Fairway rolling is going to be on Netflix next week. Yeah.

How about that? That's exciting.

I thought you gave up nothing and why not? Plus, he's going to probably either opt in or take a much cheaper deal for next year, where it's either you opt in for 45 or he'll do 90 for three. You get in there.

A nice extension that rewards him for biding his time for the balance of this season. Then let's see if Washington can finally get lucky in a draft that's absolutely loaded. They protect themselves by not winning enough games to fall out of the bottom four. They must finish in the bottom four of the league to make sure that they have a pick that won't drop below eight because if it gets to nine, then they're going to take it.

I don't even know if that's possible. Can't have that. Without a look at that now. You have 10 wins already.

Well, I'm not kidding, buddy. I was at the Wizards' Magic Game. Now, I don't know what the F is going on with the magic.

They are a team. You know what's going to go on? Their coach is going to be on Red Fence soon, looking for new places to live.

This is what's going to happen. Are they quietly tanking? What am I on misunderstanding with the magic? They put their third stringers in, and those third stringers made a very spirited comeback against Washington, so much so that I almost fired off one of my favorite betting angles of the season, which is, hey, the Wizards are up by 17 going into the fourth quarter.

Oh, the live bet against them.

Why don't you just get a little bit down, live bet on the magic. And the magic came all the way back. They were down by four points.

Yeah.

None of their starters saw the floor for the rest of the game. All those third stringers were on. It was Jace Richardson and Jet Howard all the way to the bitter end. But Washington- You were texting us during that second half, and I almost seemed like Jamal Moseley was trying to get fired because he just kept all his dudes out.

They have a Palo problem, too. We can talk about that another time. So Trey Young, who made the Eastern Finals once, worth mentioning, is only 27, which is a nice time to trade for somebody, and you gave up nothing other than expirings. Worst case scenario, he just leaves this summer, and it's just two ships passing in the night. I don't think- Right? I don't think- Best case scenario, he's Maybe he comes in on a cheaper deal. Maybe he needed a change of scenery. The thing that's always bug me about him, other than the fact that he doesn't play defense and his teammates don't really seem to like playing with him, he can't make threes anymore. And this has been a long time. The He peaked with threes in 2022 at 38 %. And since then, he's been 33. 5, 37, 34. And this year, he was 30. 5, combined with the fact that he's not getting the line like he did. And it's a little like the John Moran thing, where In your head, it's the young guy from five years ago, and I'm not sure it's the same guy. So that's the part. I trust you.

You're one of the basketball people I trust. You're going to have to watch him all the time now, and you'll know what's actually going on. I don't know anybody who's been watching the Hawks all the time.

Well, I don't think I think that we're going to get a real indication of what his role with this team is going to be until next season. I really, really, really hope that he plays tomorrow night, that is to say, Friday night against New Orleans Pelicans, because I'm going to that game, and I hope that that's his debut. But I bet the over-under, we should ask Fando if they'll do this, of games played by Trey Young over the rest of this season, I would set it at 19 and a half. He's not going to touch the floor.

I'll take that now. I think I said 12. I think they'll make an arrangement. He'll get some surgery that he's always needed.

The only thing is that the poor Washington franchise, it's been reported, is embarrassed by their attendance figures this season because I guess the open and notorious tanking job, not putting buts in seats is not producing much in the way of gate money. So that would say, Oh, let's get some tray buzz right now, get some buts in seats. But it's counterintuitive to our goal, which is bottom four. That's it. That's the only thing that matters.

Well, I'm sure there's going to be a rush to the ticket gates for a guy who doesn't play defense and shooting 31% from three. But taking nine of them.

Gilbert Arenas thinks he's a superstar.

Watch out traffic jam. Here it comes.

Gilbert Arenas thinks he's a superstar.

I'm fine. I don't mind a change of scenery trade when you give up nothing for a guy who at one point was a meaningful NBA player, and he's only 27. It's not like he's 32. I feel like you or the Kings were the two teams that were probably going to be swimming in this pool. The most interesting thing about this for big picture is what this did for Atlanta from a trade flexibility standpoint. That's where my head went immediately. That's where a lot of the reports have come since. Is this step one, the gateway drug to the AD trade? Or my theory, you go down the road pretending you're going for the AD trade, but you're really pressuring Milwaukee a little bit to be like, Look, we're going to do this AD thing. If you speak now or forever hold your peace with Yannis. By the way, the Bucks lost last night to the Clippers, which I thought was a bad sign because they've been playing okay. The AD thing won't cost much because they got McCollum's expiring, they got Porzingis expiring. Ad is making 54 million. You throw in a pick, I don't think it's a New Orleans pick, but maybe it's something else.

I don't know if Risa Shay is in that. I wouldn't give up on Risa Shay at age 20. I still like him. And then Dallas, if you do that and you're just getting expirings and a pick, now I'm tanking. Now I'm trading Gaffard for Kominga. Now I'm Khyrie and P. J. Washington. Now I'm trying to become a bottom five or six team, and I'm just punting on the season, telling Kyrie to take the year off. Then the other thing with Atlanta, if you get Davis, which I think we could argue about whether that's even a good idea. They're at least in a better spot than they used to be. If you're Dallas, could you then take McCollum in that deal and flip him for Fred VanVleet in a pick? And if you're Houston, you're getting zero from Fred VanVleet, you can turn him into McCollum for three months and maybe even resign VanVleet after the season. I don't know. It just felt like there were some dominoes in play with this house.

Well, I will say this, and I'm interested in your take on this. I don't mean to immediately take every single piece of content that we touch and flip it into what does FanDuel say, except I'm very interested in what FanDuel has to say.

I beat you four hours ago to this. Go ahead.

Regular season wins for the Atlanta Hawks. Right now, 40 and a half is right there at plus $104 plus money for the Hawks over.

See, that's not where I looked. I looked at Hawks 27 to one for the East. I thought, caught my attention.

If they got three months of AD.

Three months of AD actually giving a shit with the rest of the team that they have. We've watched the East. Who do you like in the East? Do you like anybody? I don't.

I like the Knicks. I do like the Knicks. I think the Knicks are good.

They're battle testing. I like Detroit, but I don't know if that's the team that they'll have.

Well, I loved your conversation with Goldsbury. I mean, there's a deal to be made, but it's just, do they want to mess with the chemistry?

Right. Do they want to move ahead of their circle?

They're tough, man. That's a tough team. I have been so impressed with Detroit this year.

So Anthony Davis, assuming that this is piece number two in this trade, and I think... And by the way, if you've been listening or watching or listening and watching to Rich and Max. Rich was spreading some breadcrumbs here, just throwing that out there. Not to promote another Ringer pod, but I just promoted another Ringer pod. Davis, I think the big fear with him is he's got a big contract player option thing. I'm looking it up. So if you trade for him, and the issue would be there's too many miles, there's too much wear and tear. Well, Goldsbury and I talked about the other day. The car fax for him was even worse. The report wasn't honest. Somebody lied about the extra 50,000 miles on there. He's got 54 million, 58 million, player option for 62 million in the '27, '28 season. And by the way, if you're trading for him, our guy Rich, the Ringer's Rich Paul, probably pushed him for an extension at that point, too.

Our guy Rich. How about that?

So you just have to factor all that in if you're Atlanta. You got Jalen Johnson on a nice, cheap deal. He's one of the He's one of the best star contracts in the league. I think he's like 30 million a year. He got expirings all over the place. He could probably afford the big one. From what you've seen of Davis, would this be your bet? I'm not sure it would be for me.

I feel the same way. I mean, You have an opportunity that you really can't waste if you're Atlanta here. You've done the thing. And this is my quibble. Nobody else in the entire NBA was in the position that Washington was in terms of taking on salary. You said at the outside of this, nobody else was competing for Trey Young's services. Washington couldn't get any pick out of this. Now, the pushback would be, I think from the front office, as I've thought this through, Why do we want an Atlanta pick? If we look at how Atlanta might fare over the balance of this season and the next couple of seasons, Youngcore, let's see what they do in terms of this trade market. They might be good. So do you really want a pick that's going to be in the high teens or low 20s from Atlanta? Why don't we see how Trey Young performs over the next 18 to 24 months? And that's where your draft capital might come in if he's able to rehabilitate himself. So I'm over here making excuses for the franchise.

I just give me a swap in like 2085, just something. Give me some swap or somewhere.

Yeah.

That would be a thing. You got all those swaps in the Bradley Beale trade.

Amazing.

Although I don't know now. Which turned out to be great, except Phoenix is pretty good now.

God damn it, Colin Gillespie. Can you just slow down a little bit?

Yeah. So if I'm Atlanta, I go down the road with AD. I feel like I try to see if I can get them for cheap. And as I'm getting close to maybe being in the vicinity of Atlanta at the on a deal, I push hard with Milwaukee. Yeah, I like this. And I say, Look, man, we have all the expirings you need. We have the New Orleans pick. We have all of our other picks. We have Risa Shay. Let's have a real talk here. What are you doing with your team? Two first-round pick. That would be amazing. We can give you a get-out-of-jail free card. Plus, we have the pick that is either the best of the Pelicans pick or the Bucs pick. You're the Bucs. You can tank. Now, you can tank with no conscience because you might get that pick. That's what I would do if I were to talk.

This is a very good deal. I want your reaction to this. Parlay, Atlanta Hawks, over 40 and a half games, Dallas Mavericks, under 30 and a half games. Is that too few for Dallas? That parlay pays out plus 289.

My only fear with Dallas is what Goldsbury said on the pod we did on Tuesday, that they have a kitchen right now that, let's just say Dave Chan would be throwing punches. There's five people in the kitchen.

Well, that's a helpful thing.

No, it's a group paralysis thing. But that doesn't translate into wins. I know, but what they should do is if you're going to trade Davis, then you just keep going and it's a fire sale. And P. J. Washington is on a good contract. He would be really helpful for a team.

A bunch of Gaffard would fetch something attractive.

Gaffard for Comingo is my favorite fake trade.

Oh, wow. Amazing.

Yeah.

Is that because you want Dallas to tank?

I have a confession house. I didn't tell you this.

Let me hear it.

As you know, I've mentioned a couple of times over the years, I have Clipper season tickets. I share with the one and only Mike Toland.

The great Toland.

Said over the weekend, Usually, we go to the Warriors games together because Steph Curry and Yoke Jokuj, are my two. I'm going if they're there. Wemby has now entered that group. Jokuj, Curry, Wemby, I'm there if they're in town.

Unimpeachable.

He asked, he's like, I can't go Monday. You want the tickets? I said, No. Let's sell them. And we sold them.

Wow.

Wasn't available for my buy. Steph comes twice, the two times a year Steph comes. I rain-checked it, made up an excuse. I'm under the weather, Steph. I can't make it today. I just didn't want to watch him on a shit Warriors team with fucking Draymond getting kicked out of every other game or Steve Kerr getting mad at the refs or these fucking guys that come in and Butler taking 10 shots. I couldn't do it. It was going to make me mad. I wanted to enjoy my Monday night. Didn't go. Amazing. Unbelievable.

Is that Steph Curry, who's, by the way, having an incredible year?

Yeah. Couldn't do it.

I sat home and watched that game and was unimpressed as always by the war.

By the way, no regrets. Wasn't like I was sitting there at 10 o'clock going, damn, I should have gone. But I thought that was a sad moment for the Curry.

I'm sorry.

Curry has been saying over and over again, he's like, We're so far away. We have no chance. I don't know what his agenda is with that.

He's telling the truth.

The real story is we're not a must-see team anymore, which is totally different because you have Steph Curry in your team.

You got to pour a little What's it about? Anchor Steam ale. Isn't that up there in the Bay Area? Isn't that the beer Anchor Steam?

Anchor Steam.

Good beer.

One other thing happened yesterday. Jalen Brown had his, and I've been very praiseworthy of Jalen Brown this year. He had his first, I'm doing great this year and I'm on ESPN. Everyone watched me for a couple of hours.

I thought you were going to talk about his first. He went out with his natural hairline.

No.

That is an underrated story here.

We don't talk about it on the BS podcast.

What about the Trey Young hair clips?

I don't know about that either.

Don't do it. Don't do Trey Young. I was thinking about monitoring Trey's the growth of his hair because that's part of the refresh here. He arrives in Washington. We don't know what his hair looks like. And he starts growing a giant head of hair. It would be amazing. I feel like I should start a Twitter, get a Twitter handle to monitor Trey's hair growth.

White shaved his head for us, Derek White. It looks great. It was like a game changer for him. He does look great. Lebron seemed like he shaved his head the other day, and I thought he looked really good, too.

Lebron's just handsome. What's happening with his beard and his head? He's doing a great job.

It's the best he's looked in a while. I remember when Karl Malone shaped his head near the end was a huge It helped him. It helped him. It did move for him. It helped him. He had the Dennis Haysberg look.

It did help him.

But yeah, so Jalen had a... There was no ball movement. Murray was unbelievable. Just destroyed the Celts. He was great. He's got to be in the All our team. But it just worried me a little that Jalen...

Drinking his own Kool-Aid a little bit.

Yeah, this team was a very unselfish... Last night didn't look that way, so we'll see how it goes. All right, we're going to take Congrats on Trey Young. Thank you. We're going to take a break. We're going to bring in the Duke, Billy Gill, our Picks counselor, to help us turn it around in the NFL playoff. Here we go. The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by FanDuel Football Fans. We waited all season for this. It is to switch to playoff mode on FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, all FanDuel customers can get in on the action with a wild card reward for NFL wild card round. Just pick your card. You can win up to 100% profit boost. We made all of our pics on the Thursday BS pod. Also have a special thing I think they put up on Fanduel of you can bet on Will Jacksonville or New England win the AFC title plus 250 if you think those are your teams, and Denver is not going to do it or anyone else. Head to fanduel. Com/bs for a a chance to double your winnings for the NFL Wild Card Round player game with Fanduel, an official sports spending partner of the NFL Playoffs.

Must be 21 plus present in select states or 18 plus in present DC, Kentucky, Wyoming. Often required rewards are non-metralable Restrictions apply, including bonus and token expiration leg requirements and max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook. Fando. Com. Game problem call 1-800. Gamble or visit rg-help. Com. Call 1-888-789-777 or visit c cpg. Org/chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures. Have you ever hit rock bottom and found yourself telling jokes on stage? I have not had this happen, but that is the new film directed by Bradley Cooper. It's called Is This Thing On? Starring legends Will Arnett, Laura Dern, Andre Day, Bradley Cooper. It's about a guy trying to get his life back by throwing himself into the New York comedy scene. I saw this as a child of divorce. Obviously, I'm in on all child of divorce movies. Enjoyed the stand-up stuff. I thought Will Arnett was really good. Bradley Cooper. I've been with him since Star is Born as a director. Is This Thing On? It's worth saying it's now playing only in theaters. Get tickets today. All right, Joe House is still here. The Duke, Billy Gill is here.

You can hear him on the Ringer NFL with Sheil a couple of days a week. Very entertaining, as well as College Football Tailgate, which is just... I looked in the Golden Globes nominations, not nominated this year. It felt like a snub.

I feel like we started too late in the year. There's the cut offs or whatever. So next year we should be fine.

Yeah, you're right. Maybe we didn't get in front of the voting committee in time. So 2025, I had a terrible everything year. I had my over-unders house. I was 13 and 19. That's where I ended up. Even though I had Denver, New England, Seattle, Chicago. I had all the main ones, and then everyone in the middle just killed me. I think I went 0-8 in the south divisions. All the fringe ones, Buffalo not getting there over, Philly. It just was a bad year. Then for the Picks, Ringer 107, 40 and 50. My worst year in a while, but the good news is 2026, small sample size, 2025. I'm going to bet on the history with me. I doubled down. I did three days of work. We brought in the Duke. I'm feeling good about Ringer 107. Billy, how are you feeling about the playoffs?

I feel like for you guys, this is a turnaround point in the season, right? You're 40 and 50. You're still in it in terms of Ringer 107. Last time I was on with you guys, I think you went three and two or four and one. The The playoffs? I don't know. I'm excited that we're here. It was a good regular season. It was an exciting season. The playoffs were missing the classic people in the playoffs were missing, I think... I don't know who the team that you root for is. There's always one of those. I mean, you would root for the Patriots because of the Drake May and all that. But there's also not really the team you hate. Maybe the Eagles are that team just because they're the defending champions. But it's wide open in terms of teams and story lines and who you're rooting for, rooting against headed into the first week.

That's a really good point. We don't have the everybody in America can align one way or the other teams. I think most people... House, would you agree? I don't have to ask House because he's from DC. But I think people are done with Philly and their contempt for being entertaining. Even their own fans seem like they can't stand them. But other than that, I don't really have any hatred for any of these teams, I don't think. It's not like people are like, I fucking hate the Rams, that Sean McVay, staff are. He going down the line, it's a pretty likable group of teams.

It feels like this could be the season that we get two random teams in the Super Bowl, which I don't know how I feel about. It's like a Well, you hated the Warriors towards the end because they were there every year. But also you wanted to see them in the finals. But the NFL is saying, I want to see an established good team in the Super Bowl. Two random teams, I feel like. I'm going to watch either way, but two random teams will be like, Eh, is this That's the Super Bowl?

Well, I was looking at some of the exactas, trying to find some value in terms of the Super Bowl matchup and the outcome. And I landed on Seattle beating Jacksonville.

Oh, fucking A house. That was the matchup I had.

Well, you could still do it.

Why are you cursing at me? No, it's Seattle, Jacksonville, I think, is the most likely Super Bowl in my head.

Well, I just, looking at the last 15 years, once Every five years, we get one of these matchups that Billy's describing. So the last one was Cincinnati against the Rams. Now, the Rams had been to the Super Bowl with Jared Goff against the Patriots. The Patriots strung the life out of them. But we had a really exciting Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow Super Bowl that really came out of left field. I feel like that's the situation that we're in this season.

I couldn't agree more. I've been comparing it for the last few weeks to the 2008 season, which was the year that braided blew out his ACL eight minutes into the season, and then just all hell broke loose. And we ended up with Carson Palmer in Arizona in the Super Bowl against a pretty strange Pittsburgh team. And that was just the Super Bowl. And it turned out to be a really good game, but I don't feel like anybody was watching it going, These are two peak football teams. It was just where we landed. I think Cincinnati and the Rams is a good one, even though the Rams are good that year. But the bangles making it is the thing that I think is in play this year. So we all agree on that, that this is going to just be a weird play-off?

It feels like it. Looking back to the 2020 Super Bowl between the 49ers and the Chiefs, obviously, that was the start of the Chiefs' dynasty and the run that they went on, right? But at the time, did it feel like that to you? If you could forget about everything that happened after the fact, Oh, the Kansas City Chiefs made it to the Super Bowl? Andy Reid's, I guess, back. Let's see if he does it. That seemed like a random one at the time. Then you had Rahem Mostert running loose. I think he had 200 something yards the week before to get him to the Super Bowl. It seemed like those were two random teams that ended up being powerhouses as the years went on.

Well, what was the year? It was Vrabel when they made it to the It was Tennessee, Cincinnati, right? Wasn't that one of the years? The year Cincinnati made it, I guess they beat KC.

They beat Tennessee. You're right about that.

They beat Tennessee, but it was... I think we got killed in that game house. Ryan Taylor killed us.

I don't forget when- I still feel like the bruises from that one. Yeah, there's still a chalk outline.

One of those Tennessee years when it just felt like Tennessee had a chance to make the Super Bowl, we have that sometimes. I'm ready for that this year. If I had to pick, so FanDuel did a bet for me that people can do that Jacksonville or New England will make the Super Bowl. I think the Pats house disagrees. I think the Pats and Jacksonville win this week, and we go to round two, and that's going to decide because I do not believe in Denver. I don't know. Billy, how do you feel about Denver?

I saw that at FanDuel right now, you get plus 800 for the Broncos and the Seahawks to both make it both number one seeds. Two one seeds. Yeah, which seems like two one seeds. You should do that. But I don't know if anyone actually believes in Denver. I know that they had a great season. They're the one seed, obviously, but there's just something about them. Bo Nicks, is he actually that good? Sean Payton, I mean, I don't trust them. I really don't. I feel like this could be a division round exit for them, depending on the matchup.

I don't trust them either.

The problem with Denver is Jacksonville went in there and kicked their ass. If we didn't have in our recent memory seeing Trevor Lawrence go into Denver, and it mattered, in meaningful December football, and they just whipped them. I mean, it was one of those games that Denver's defense just couldn't keep up. That's the problem. With that in our recent memory banks, you can't say, Oh, well, this is all Denver. This is an all Denver path here.

Yeah, Housemates. I thought the same thing about there are certain games you can't get the taste out of your mouth. We had Denver that game, of course, from Ringer 107, and Jackson will kick their ass for three hours. And it was impressive. And I actually don't think they've got enough credit for how good they've been the last couple of months. They have talked about this every week. I think it's been a big rallying cry for them, which is another thing. We're going to go in the playoff manifesto in a second. They're a pretty complete team. And the catch is Trevor Lawrence turns into a pumpkin in the playoffs, and you're like, I knew it. I knew that was going to happen. But it just might not happen. We're going to go through the Playoff Gambling Manifesto, which I've been on every year since I had my old website, pre-ESPN. I sent this to you guys. I'm going to read through it quickly. It's been pretty reliable over the years. We've added a couple of things over the years. There's some stuff that doesn't qualify for this year, like beware of the looked a little too good, the previous round team.

That's rule number one. We won't know about that until round two. Don't bet against God, puppies, and gambling theories from Pakistan. That's really Tim Tebo, Kurt Warner related. When religion comes in in a strong way, just put the flashers on. Rule number three has been incredibly reliable this entire century. Beware the nobody believes in us team. But then we also had to add the don't try too hard to talk yourself into the Nobody believes in us team either. So I want to stop here. I think the Duke probably has the best feel for this. I like calling you the Duke, even though I don't even think you really like it.

Okay.

The Nobody believes in us. Jacksonville has tried to embrace it. San Francisco, Carolina is out. I mean, Carolina is a plus ten and a half underdog at home and around, but they don't even count. Is San Francisco feel Nobody Belives In Us to you at all?

I was trying to figure that out. The three teams that I wrote down coming into this week, nobody believes in us. Jaguars that you mentioned, the Panthers that you kicked out. I'm wondering if the bears are one of those teams, it's a nobody believes in us team. Because the fact that they're an underdog at home seems surprising to me.

Can I offer one more? Because part of the nobody believes in us is you have to play out the entire upside in your head, followed by the postgame interview after. I found myself moving to Monday night, Houston, Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh, not only covering the plus three, but winning outright. Then Roger's talking after and doing the dismissive Rodgers thing and going, Look, nobody's believed in us all year. That hasn't changed. Doing that, I'd be like, Oh, this is how the Stealers feel. But it's almost baked into the Stealers' house. Does it even count with them?

No, it's part of their identity. Nobody believes in them, including their own fan base. I mean, they were literally chantting Fire Tomlin less than a month ago. In Accrochure, isn't that the name of the stadium? Fire Tomlin.

Yeah, that was a slap in the face.

And yet here we are. So right, it's part of the DNA. It's part of their voodoo. I don't think that they qualify.

Jacksonville is the team because I think the case for that, on top of that, they've been playing the card for eight weeks, is they are not favored at home as a three seed against a team. They have a better record than them. They've been out playing for the last three months. Buffalo is favored because of Josh Allen, really only. There's no other reason. I think that's the answer, Billy. I think it's Jacksonville.

Okay.

Rule number 4, be careful of the Everybody believes in us team and the Nobody believes in our QB, but us motherfuckers team. There's a certain level of Nobody believes in us where they get very possessive and protective of their own quarterback. You saw this happen with the Rams or Jared Goff a little bit, but there's certain... I don't think that qualifies But the Everybody believes in Us team. Who is that, Billy? Who has too many people on the bandway? The Rams?

He's right. It's the Ram. Duke is on it. It's the Rams.

Anybody else? Is there an AFC? Not really. I don't think anyone believes in any AFC team.

People are high on the Seahawks, too. I mean, they're the one seed, so it's easy to be high on the Seahawks. We haven't seen Sam Darnold's unravel yet, which he did at the end of last year, some. It hasn't happened this year, so it makes you wonder, is it going to happen at some point? I mean, he has the buy week, so it can't happen this week, but it seems like it's the Rams right now.

I think that's fair. They're a five seed. They blew their chance to win the division. They've looked a little gamey in a couple of these outdoor games. We'll come back to them later. Rule number 5, beware of any team that could use a notable offfield distraction or tragedy as a galvanizing force. Not in play yet. Rule number six is a really important one. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win. It doesn't always hit. There's been times underdogs cover but don't win. But for the most part, it's the playoffs. You're just better off thinking in your head, can they actually win? And this is a key one Niners, Eagles. Don't take the Niners plus four and a half and be like, I think it's going to be close. It could be a three point. Do you think the Niners are going to win or not? And if you don't think they're going to win, don't take them with the four and a half. The next two are weather-related, and they're also very important. And this one, especially, I added this year, but we're of all dome or warm weather teams playing outdoors in cold weather or cold weather teams playing outdoors in human weather, which is really Florida and Carolina.

So we have that in play this weekend. We have a Florida home game and we have a Carolina home game. It seems like Jacksonville is going to be high 60s. You have this Buffalo team that's cold all the time, getting a little gamey during the afternoon. I'm just monitoring that. When you like that one at all house, because we've seen the Pats go to Miami when it's 80. I know Billy enjoys when this happens, and they just run out of gas 2 hours into the game.

Well, I'm not going to blame the weather, but we just watched the Bills go down to Miami. Now, it was right after the Chief's game, so they were running on empty. But they got a boat race. I mean, that was 30 to nothing, wasn't it?

Right. That could be the Rams in Carolina, too. There's a bunch of interesting reasons to zag against the Rams. Number nine, discount first five, six weeks in the season. I think everybody knows how to do that. What you did in September doesn't matter. Rule number 10. I'm sorry. Rule number 8 was the beware of any aging QB in cold weather unless it's Tom braided. So this It fits Rodgers, but is Rodgers an outlier for this rule because of how many games he's played in cold weather? What's your ruling, Billy?

I had Rodgers as my guy for this one, too. I looked up the weather there. It's supposed to be 32 degrees. It feels like 24. Not snow, 22% chance of precipitation, 50-mile-per-hour winds. But he spent his whole career in Green Bay in those games.

So it's not like- He's like a fucking Eskimo. He's not used to this yet?

32 in Pittsburgh is Balmy compared to Lambo.

Yeah, I I think that bounces often. Plus, he grew up in Northern California. The weather is weird. So I almost feel like I should add Rogers to this. Rule number 10 is crucial. When in doubt, gravitate toward the one pick that would screw over the most gamblers and experts and definitely be the opposite side of the single worst gambler you know. What is the most obvious game this week?

The Rams and the Panthers.

Rams Money Line, Rams minus 10.

Ram's Money Line.

So the most The obvious pick, I think this week is people doing money line teases with the Rams as the first leg.

Right.

Either a 10-point tease, throwing the minus 6. 50 in the rest of their bets. I think that's the most obvious thing to do this week, and it makes me nervous. Just out of the gate, along with a lot of other things about that, Ken. Is there another one that you think is too obvious? Eagles against the banged up Niners. Does that line move the point?

It's the second highest line because it's a really weird set of lines.

You have anything, Billy? Anything.

No, I had the same one. I had for that one, the Panthers. I feel like everyone's staying away from the Panthers. We saw them beat the Rams a couple of weeks ago, but it was like everything had to go right for the Panthers in that game, and everything went wrong for the Rams in that game. They still only won by a field goal and still almost tied the game with a field goal at the end. But then Stafford fumbled the ball with two minutes left.

Yeah, I went back and I looked through that game. There was a pick six from Stafford. The Panthers had two long pass touch downs on fourth down. Then, Bryce Young was great. Bryce Young was three touch downs, no picks. It was arguably the best game he's ever played. As you said, the Rams had the ball at the end, and they fucked it up. But I'm not sure the Panthers could do that well ever again. They were missing guys on their side. I don't think they had J. C. Horn for that game. I think they're healthier than they were. But do I think they could score 31 points against the Rams again? I don't.

That game fell apart quickly, though, and the Rams were still in it the entire way. They were going back and forth. Rams score, Panthers score. Rams drive down the field, Interception in the end zone. Then Panthers punt it, Rams throw a pick six, and then they're still in the entire game, even with all of that going right there in it. Then it took Rain at the end of the game. And by the way, Puka didn't have a good game. He had his miraculous catches here and there, but he didn't have a countdown. He less than 100 yards in that game. They would need to replicate that exact formula to win again against the Rams. I don't see it happening.

None of us do.

We only have to pick five Ringer 107 games. That could be the one we punt. It's one of these games we just kick to the side. That's the leading contender. Rule number 11 is don't ever talk yourself in a terrible QB ever for any reason. This rule really came into effect the one year. Who was the guy in Dallas in the early 2000s who had to start? Quincy Carter, his name like that. He was really awful. The line never adjusted for how bad he was. It stuck with me ever since. But bad QBs in general, you just don't want them in the playoffs. Miami has had a couple over the years where we've had some payoff games, not to bring up terrible memories, but- Skyler Thompson almost beat the bills when he talked about- Skyler Thompson worked out the best, yeah. Rule number 12 doesn't count yet, but we're team that celebrated the weekends, previous weekend's playoff victory, like to win the Super Bowl. Rule number 13 is a recent ad. Don't dismiss the nerd evidence if the nerd evidence is absolutely overwhelming. So this is where we move into the DVOA EPA land. And honestly, it's stuff like Buffalo having the 31st ranked run defense in the EPA is significant.

When you think of the Jaguars have had some games where they have run on people's asses like they did to the chargers. It's just When you see Chicago is another one that has some pretty convincing nerd stuff going against them.

Yeah, you take the turnovers away from their defense. And it's one of the two worst defenses in the NFL.

Yeah, they're 25th in DVOA anyway. Epa, they were 17th against the pass and 24th against the run. Would they have 22? They're plus 22 with turnovers this year? Can't ignore any of that stuff. Rule number 14 is another. This one I added this year. Our old friend Mike Lombardi, who stopped podcasting and become the UNC general manager. He had a law that I always thought was great about bad offensive lines don't travel. The rule is bad offensive line, you can get away with it at home. But if you're on the road, the crowd's loud, your offensive line sucks to begin with, just be careful. There's a couple lines like that this week, including the chargers, fortunately for me. But I actually texted Lombardi and asked him if the Texans qualify, and he said yes. Shaky offensive line for them, too. Rule number 15, look at the coaches. Just take a long look. We don't have any... Do we have a stinker coach this year, Billy? Do we have a playoff coach that you're just like, I don't trust that dude at all?

I mean...

We don't have a Norv Turner this year.

No, we have some rookie coaches that we have see, is Liam Cohen going to do well? How's McDonald going to do in the playoff? You have unproven coaches, I would say, but no outright stinkers that snuck their way in there with a good team, I don't think.

House, any coach you just dislike?

Many people are still skeptical about Siriani. His record is outstanding, both in the regular season and in the playoff. But there's still that lingering fear, skepticism that this This Eagles team resembles the one from a handful of years ago. The one a couple of years ago completely fell off the rails. And everybody saw the first round where they were favorites going into Tampa, and Tampa beat their butts, knocked them out of the playoffs. This is a different version altogether because this Eagles team defensively is a million miles superior to that one. But Shana Hans, Siriani, I don't know.

Did you have one, Billy?

No. Can I ask a question about this rule? There's a lot of hypothetical in this rule also that involves traveling and a passport. I was wondering the specifics of that when we looked at- Should I read that? Yeah.

The whole rule is rule number 15, take a long look at the head coaches, consider their playoff history, compare them in your heads to some of the all-time January stink bombers like Marty Schotnerheimer, Jim Mora, Herm Edwards, Norv Turner, or theapper Jason Garrett, then pretend you're flying abroad with one of these coaches and they're holding your wallet and passport the entire time. How would you feel? There's no coach in here that would make me nervous like that. By the way, just as an aside, may the klapper please come back. I saw his interview for multiple jobs. I've never been more excited for non-Buston news ever. I know you were delighted.

It's unbelievable. When cousin Sal broke it out, we did our Hump Day headlines on the Wednesday Ringer Gambling Show, and he said it with a straight face, Jason Garrett is interviewing for the Tennessee job. I thought it was a comedy bit.

Right. You were waiting for him to finish the punch.

What has anybody been watching on television that would instill in gender confidence? He was a horrendous coach in Dallas, undermined great teams at every turn, and then has been extraordinarily mediocre. The guy that said that he has, what is it? The Hambone, the mad game, a frozen Hambone for the free? Get Get the fuck out of here. This guy? Are you fucking kidding me? Please, dear God, if there's a football God have been so good to us, please, in 2026, give that man a head coaching job.

Billy, we didn't have enough comedy on the coaching sidelines this year. Everyone's hiring these young Whipper snappers who actually know what they're doing. Mike McDaniel did his best. Yeah. He really tried to be hilarious every week.

Calhand is pretty good.

Yeah. God bless DJ Mikey Mac. We're going to miss him. Not spending his tracks anymore for the Dolphins. But yeah, I thought we were late this year, right?

Yeah. This, honestly, was like, was this the best coaching cycle hires ever? None of them flop. They all worked out. And this coming year, I mean, I guess you now have John out there, right? John Harbaugh is going to get a job right away. Mcdaniel, everyone's thinking about, where is he going to be in OC? I don't know if Joe House wants him up there in Washington. That seems to be a favorite.

I do.

I do. He signed up already.

Big fan. That's his job. That's his best The highest use. Let him be an OC for Dan Quinn.

I saw that Vans Joseph is getting some run now, and I remember him being terrible. I went back and looked at his two teams. He lasted two years at Denver. In the second year, Case Keenum was his quarterback. I'm like, You know what? Who knows? I think if we've learned anything, it's if you have a shit quarterback or a mediocre quarterback or whoever, you just have no chance. There's other times where it's like Antonio pierce. There's more stuff going on, then your quarterback wasn't good or Hugh Jackson. But with Vance Joseph, he's a very well-respected DC, so maybe. There's some other coordinators they're throwing out. I don't think- Brian Flores. Brian Flores. People seem to keep trying him out, and it never really takes. But Harba, that had to be one of the reasons he must be happy that... Which job would you take out of those two, Giants or Falcons? Because to me, I would take the Falcons 100 times out of 100.

Would you take the Ravens? I feel I feel like the Ravens might be the best job that's out there right now.

Well, not for Harba.

No, not for Harba. No, not Harba. Yeah, no. If you're Harba, I honestly was wondering if this is a thing where they didn't announce Mike McDaniels firing right away. Steven Ross always wanted Jim him a Harbaugh. I was wondering if this is a situation because there was the rumor out there where it's like seven teams have already contacted John Harba, but there's only six openings that would apply to him. So someone is out there talking to John, and then all of a sudden after that was out there, McDaniels fired a day later. I wonder if there's some insider trading going on there with Steven Ross, where he's already decided, You know what? I couldn't get the Harbaugh I wanted. I'll set it for the other Harbaugh instead.

So how? So you could be New York Giants, Jack Dax & Dard, Neighbors Coming Back, top five pick, good defense, fourth place schedule, famous franchise. That's pick one. Atlanta, loaded on talent. We're probably a 13-win team that went eight and nine. They don't have their first-round pick, easier schedule, and you could go right in and make an impact. Or Miami, you could just live in Miami. What would you do?

What Harbaugh would do and I would do are two radically different things because I would say to Steven Ross, I just want $20 million a year over the next five years. If you give me $100 million, I'll come coach this team.

The problem is- You don't care who's on it.

Yeah, don't care. Who's the quarterback of Miami next year? When you were- Is he going to be the starting quarterback of the Miami Dolphins?

He looked good for about an hour against the Pats, and then he just threw it right to us in the end zone. Who is that? And that was that.

Oh, right. The Duke, you're a Dolphins fan.

Yeah, it's been bad.

Who do you want?

They have to get rid of Tua, right? It's obvious that they're going to move on from Tua at this point in time, but it seems like that's going to be a thing just because of financial reasons. They'll wait till after the June first deadline because then they can move the money around. But they don't have a high enough traffic to get a quarterback in the draft. You have to hope that they trade for a quarterback. There's not a quarterback out there. You're going to hope that Justin Fields is released, and then you try with him for a year and then he's bad enough.

Harba is not doing that. Somebody might do that. John Harbaugh is not doing that.

Well, I mean, the Dolphins thing is going to be fire McDaniel. He then goes becomes an OC for a team. I see a scenario where he can then go. If he doesn't go to Washington, he can have a reunion in San Francisco, depending on how the playoffs go there. Or he can then maybe go up to Baltimore, where he has Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and then he becomes the OC there. And then all of a sudden, he's an offensive genius again. You fired this offensive genius that you had because he didn't have the quarterback that he needed. He did the best anyone could probably do with Tua, right? But the thing that the Dolphins would do is fire the offensive genius without a replacement plan, hoping that you get John Harbaugh, who then goes to the Giants to coach Jackson dark. Right.

And then you have to figure out what to do.

How many times have somebody backed out in the Dolphins at the last minute? That's happened at least four times. I mean, you had braided, basically, too. That was the other one. The secret braided deal was one of the great 2020 stories.

That braided situation is so wild. And with all the tampering and cheating that goes on in the NFL. And you read the reports of how Brian Flores, he ended up suing the Dolphins, and that was the whole thing, and suing the league, right? But then there were reports that he lost a team. Ryan Fitzpatrick came out, I think earlier this week, and he was talking about how he changed. From when he started towards the end, he became a dictator and was trying to embrace the Belichick Patriots way without actually having any of his success to do so. But this is just one of those things where he decided that that was the moment with Tom braided, that he was not going to step foot on a yacht to cheat and bring Tom braided to the Dolphins. I don't understand why that is the point of integrity that you need to take a stand on. It's crazy to me.

Also, he was cheating the whole time and then didn't complete the cheat.

Yeah. If you're going to cheat, go all cheat. There's no honor in half-ass cheating that then gets you fired.

You paid for the OnlyFans model to come over. No, I didn't. Sorry, Haas. No, I didn't. That hit too close to home. How dare you?

I did not.

I think the funniest outcome would be Harba actually coming the Dolphins and bringing Snoopuntley with them. Any given Sunday style. Interesting. Like, Pacino, I'm going on a new expansion team and I'm bringing Willy Beeman as my first signing. End of credits. It'd be amazing.

A nice reunion for Snoopuntley, who was there last year when Tua was out and tank the Dolphins season.

He can live in the same Airbnb. Crazy that eight of the 32, that seems like a pretty high number for NFL coaching of people. Some of them are a surprise. We said on Sunday, we said going to Sunday that Pittsburgh-Baltember was a loser leaves town match. I just really felt like whoever lost that game was done. Quickly, four more rules. Beware of any team that reminds you of the 2007 Giants. Maybe the Chargers. I don't think their defense is good enough is the problem, but it's that blueprint 17, 14 type games. But I don't think we have that team this year. Make sure the team of the home field advantage actually has a home field advantage. Really crucial for the The Eagles. The Eagles at home, their fans can just get really bummed out and surly if it's a certain type of game where I almost wonder...

You mean a zero pass completion in the second half?

Yeah, we've watched it. One of those. You know what I'm talking about. One of those? Yeah. There's a vibe that can unfold in those games. I got to be honest, I'm a little worried about the Sunday Night Pats game.

Why?

Why?

Just cold night, late. I don't know.

I mean, your household brothers will have been drinking all day.

That's part of what I'm worried about. It might be peaking around 3: 00 in the afternoon. I don't know. It just does that game always worry me. 18, look at the quarterbacks again. And rule number 19, don't try to be a hero. Just try to win money. So there's some good ones to apply to the six games. We'll take a break. We're going to come back and we're hit all the games. All right, we talked about it in the manifesto, Rams minus 10 and a half Panthers. Give us your your wacky angle for this game first, Billy.

I have two angles for this one. If you'd like two, I could just give you one.

No, you can double up. Okay. We got all the time in the world.

All right. First angle, is this, Bryce Young's power ball game/playoffs? Is this the game where they were out on him two years ago? They Drafted him, didn't work out. Last year, they benched him. It took a car accident for Andy Dalton to then get removed. You bring Bryce back. He then plays this season. He does well. It seems like he's not what they thought he was going to be as a number one pick, but he's now gotten them to the playoffs. It's hard to find a franchise quarterback in the playoffs. If he somehow pulls off a miraculous win, does he do enough with the Panthers who are notorious for mismanaging everything in their organization? They still don't need to do this. They still have a fifth-year option that they could give from 26. 5 million, and he still has a year on his rookie deal. But if he does it- And they can tag him after that. Yeah. But if he does it, is this something that gets the emotions to a place where they give him the Daniel Jones four years, $160 million a year?

Is that what we're calling it now, the Daniel Jones? I like it.

It's a powerball. It's one game, and you win life-changing money because you just have the one game. You also have Joe Flacko. You can go back to 2012 when he had the playoff run where he was done with his rookie deal. He wins the Super Bowl. He gets the long term deal. And at the time, it was like 120 million, but it was like one of the highest average annuals.

I mean, it really should be called the Flacko.

Yeah. Well, I mean, it's the Jones. When it's Bryce Young, you sign him to the deal, and then it completely falls apart. We're not looking for something like, this is a statement game. He's arrived. Now he's here. He has one game. They make a bad deal, give him all this life-changing money. And then it's like, oh, no, now our hands are tied. Now we need to figure out how to get out from under this contract because we're just stuck in the middle for the rest of time.

Can I add an addendum to this?

Okay.

If Chicago, Philly, and Carolina all somehow win, which the first two teams are home. This isn't unrealistic. We would get the Bryce Young Trade Referendum Super Bowl in round two, Chicago versus Carolina. If you remember, controversial trade once upon a time. And now, if Bryce Young gets killed in Chicago, doesn't that solve your issue? He wins the playoff game, but then gets killed by the team that they made this crazy trade for Bryce Young, and then he does get the contract. If he beats the Rams and Chicago, now we're in a Trey Young 2018 situation where now you're a franchise guy.

Until you're not.

What's your other angle?

My other angle. Does Matthew Stafford know the MVP race is over or is he going to try to be doing too much. So there's the whole Matthew Stafford- Do you think he thinks it goes through the playoffs? I think that he thinks that there's too much- Somebody's got to tell him. There's too much going on here. I was going and I was looking on message boards of Ram fans, seeing what they're talking about, seeing if they're excited. And it's just conspiracy theories over why Matthew Stafford is the MVP of the league. They are so upset that Drake May could win the MVP that they're just looking into different things. It's an obsession that they have. So here are some of the things that they've come up with. They were trying to make the argument that a one-yard countdown pass, which you have said and others have said, he would have just pad his stats, and then he'd go in there and he'd lead the league in touch downs. The argument by Ram's fans that was being made was that the one-yard countdown pass is actually the hardest of the countdown passes to come by because all you have is 11 yards of field to work with, where at any other point in time, you have a wide open field.

So it would be easier to get any other countdown than in a crowded 11 yards. Do you buy into that theory?

No. Especially not when I have Devante Adams, who's like his last remaining super elite scale is to catch his short telephone booth passes.

All right. Do you want to hear another theory that they have going on?

I'd love to hear all the theories. By the way, the Rams fans were the ones who were playing in the parties in New Orleans in 2001. See, now I'm going to root against the Rams. I don't like this Rams right of thing at all.

I think you wanted to root against the Rams this whole time. I was looking for an excuse. All right. So here's another theory that they have out there. They believe that Drake may intentionally patece his stats in passer rating by taking Sacks because that doesn't count against you in passer rating, to prevent Matthew Stafford for winning a quarterback triple Crown of touch downs, yards, and quarterback rating. And their argument was that Drake may have been sacked 24 more times than Matthew Stafford, but only had 50 more sack yards. So therefore, these were all close sacks where he could have easily just thrown the ball away, but was opting not to do so so that he would have a higher pass.

That's amazing. As somebody who watched every snap this season, first of all, he's running for his life 12% of the time because they're offensive line, especially when they have left tackle. But he was really good at almost getting out of the sack and then getting chased down. So it was a lot of ones where he should have been sacked further back in the line of scrimage, but was able to fight for survival for five yards. So that doesn't add up to what we watched this season.

Listen, don't shoot the messenger. So that's all leading to with those theories out there, is Matthew Stafford going to think that he's still trying to prove to people that he's the MVP? And if you remember, we talked about it earlier, last game against the Panthers, he had two interceptions. One of them was in the end zone, then another quick one in the next drive. Then he had the fumble at the end of the game that ruined the game. I started looking at FanDuel. Matthew Stafford plus 130 for an interception might be something. If he's trying to force things, the weather is also not I'm supposed to be great there. I looked into, because of the manifesto, I started looking into the weather in Carolina. Accu weather says that a Bank of America Stadium, 70s degrees, real feel, 66% cloudy chance, thunderstorm. It's going to rain, probably. Second half of that game, like it did the last time when he had that bumble.

Is it Rico Doudal time? Could he be doing the Marshawn Lynch beast mode versus the 2010 Saints?

Amazing.

Is that in play?

You know what? I want to parlay. I want to parlay that pick that Billy is describing. I'll see if Fando lets me do it.

No, they don't let you parlay the pics.

Oh, that's right. You can't parlay interceptions with anything.

No, because I wanted to do the Bryce Young. I actually looked at the Bryce Young pick parlayed with the Matthew Stafford pick.

I thought that this was a perfect, Everybody throws a pick in this game game, and you can't do it. Because I was going to do it with Kieran Williams over 64 and a half rushing yards because I think that McVay is going to try and protect Matthew Stafford from himself. I think if the The fans get up by really any 10 points, then we're going to see a ton of Blake Caurum and Kieran Williams touches in the second half. They're just going to try and run the game out.

I had another MVP wrinkle off Billy's MVP wrinkle. It is in play for Drake May and Matthew Stafford, the winning the MVP but having a terrible round run playoff game and losing, and then they announced the MVP after, a. K. The Dirk Nowitzky. You remember what happened with our guy Dirk? Sure do. We love Dirk Nowitzky. Nothing was more awkward than Golden Steep. The We believe warriors knocking Dirk out. And then Dirk was like, Here's your MPA. Thanks. Also, David Tepper. What's he going to be capable of in the luxury box? I think is an angle. Is it an angle? The much Are they blind over the years, David Tepper?

What a crazy friend. I don't want to make any jokes.

They really are. He has too much money. I can't afford a defamation lawsuit.

So if the Rams win, they go to Seattle for round two unless Green Bay or San Francisco win. If you look at the nerd stuff, it's a Massacre. The Rams had the ninth-highest DBOA ever. Carolina was 25th offense DBOA and 22nd defense. Epa was just as bad. There's one thing that I thought was pretty interesting beyond what we mentioned. I I looked at... I really dove into... I spent a lot of time in the pics this week, guys. I really like after the 40 and 50, it was like a wake-up call in a lot of ways. Aaron Schatz had a really interesting worst DBOA to make the playoffs from 1970 to 2025. And what happened with some of those teams on the list. So the worst team ever to make the playoffs since 1978, DBOA was the 8-8, 2004-Rams. What happened in round one? They won. They beat Seattle, who was four-point favorites. The second worst team ever was the 2010 Seahawks, who were 10-point underdogs against the Saints. They won. The next team was a strike season team. We're not counting them. 2016 Houston was the next full-season team. Four-point underdogs in Oakland, they win by 14.

And the fourth team was the 1998 Cardinals, seven-point underdogs against Dallas, they win. And then the fifth team was the Tim Tebo Denver Broncos, who won an overtime against Pittsburgh as seven and a half point underdogs. There's other people on the list. The point is there is evidence that this DVOI America would happen. The problem is this would be pretty unusual from a point spread standpoint. This would be the biggest home dog that's ever covered a playoff game, basically.

House, I saw this that you might be interested in if you believe that Kyron Williams is going to run all over them and it's a rainy day. So FanDuel has a game special. Kyron Williams and Rico Dautil each having 50 plus rushing yards in each half plus 40,000.

In each half. So both guys go over 100. I mean, plus 40,000.

I can't even... So it's $10? You win $400,000?

$100.

Yeah.

$100. You win $40. I don't know. I can't figure it out.

I'm not.

$100,000, $4,000. Is that what it is?

Yeah, I guess.

Now, if you're worried about your 10-point teaser with the Rams, the last 20 times we had a straight-up, nine-and-a-half point-and-up favorite, 19-1 straight up against that. The only time the team didn't win was the 2019 Ravens who lost to Mike Brables, Tennessee Titans, 20 to 12 as 10-point favorites. It's the only time since the Seahawks-Saintz game, and they weren't even home dogs.

That's 15 years.

It's a long time. We talked about a lot. There's a lot of manifesto for this one, including Nobody Believes in Us, the Underdog, Don't Pick Them Unless You Believe They Can Win, the warm weather team or cold weather team. No, dome team, playing in humid weather or cold weather, either one. Agent QB in weird weather. Is this the pick that screws over the most gamblers? Do you really want to put money on Bryce Young, the nerd evidence, and then the quarterbacks? House, where are you sitting in this game?

I'm going to take 20 bucks. I'm going to bet it on the Carolina Panthers money line, and I'm going to kiss that 20 bucks goodbye, and that's it. That's the only bet I'm making on this stupid football game. You mentioned it, the DVOA, unprecedented. They have the same differential as the New York Giants. But this team is 8-0 against the spread, the Carolina Panthers, after a loss. And all of their wins this season have come after a loss.

Well, they lost last week. They've been a pretty good home team for the most part.

Pretty good home team. This is the biggest point spread in the history of the NFL as a home dog. I just don't have any appetite for messing with it. What do you get out of this? It could go exactly the way a lot of us imagine, which is the Rams get in, they roll. But man, we watched the Rams these last three weeks. Have you really been blown away by anything you've seen out of the- I haven't.

For three weeks. I think you I can throw on them, too. You definitely can. Arizona certainly did. The Panthers got Cogerback and T-Mack. I really don't think the Panthers are bad. The weather was really weird in that Tampa game. Weird stuff happened in general in that game, but I felt like they should have been moving the ball better in that game. The referees, they got phoned over by every call. A couple of props I was looking at. Puka plus 370 to have the most receiving yards in round one. Bryce was minus 118 for a pick. And theirs, if you just think the Rams are going to roll, you could do Puka, 100 yards plus, Adams TD, Rams, 29 plus points, and Rams money is plus 427 house.

Sure. So you don't have to deal with the spread.

What do you like, Billy? What's your pick?

I feel like the Panthers might get a backdoor cover here, but I don't see them winning the game. There was a time where Bryce Young, 11 of his 14 wins or something like that, all came on game-winning drive. So it was like, he's a clutch guy, but his team has to have him be in a position to be clutch. And I just don't see it happening because I don't think that this is going to be the last time where everything breaks their way. He had those fourth down conversions that you said. He had the long touch downs when he needed to have them. It's a team that you've been able to throw on, I'd say, I think since week 13, they're towards the bottom of the league in defense on passes, where earlier in the season, weeks 1 through 12, they were towards the top of the league. So you can throw on them, but I don't think that they're going to win the turnover battle plus three again like they did last time. So it's a nice story, but the Rams, I think, are just too much for the Panthers.

I think this is the one I'm probably punting on for Ringer 107. But for posterity in the eternal quest to go undefeated against the spread in the playoffs, we have to make a pick house.

Well, here Where's the thing, and Billy just described it to us. The Rams are up- The back door is in play. 31, 14. The Rams are up. They beat the crap out of Carolina all day long. They let Carolina score one shutdown in the first half, and one countdown was six minutes left in the in the fourth quarter. It's 31, 14. Carolina gets the ball. And you and I both know exactly what happens when the line is ten and a half points.

The line, it feels like you're getting a flash sale on extra points for the Panthers. Ten and a half at home is insane. I mean, literally, we'd be making history with this as a whole. I'm probably slightly in for Panthers plus ten and a half, but I think it's at a Ringer 107. But just for posterity, if this was nine and a half, it's weird. If it was nine and a half, I'd probably like, Fine, I'll take the Rams. But ten and a half, you could be down 17 with two minutes left in cover. We know the Panthers can throw the ball when they're behind. We've watched them do it. I I don't mind the Panthers. I didn't think they were terrible. I felt worse about other playoff teams. All right, now let's get to the big boys. Packers, bears, Saturday night. Narratives include the Green Bay owns the bears just perennially. Bear's trying to shed that. There's some nobody believes in us with the bears. There's some Michael Parson's Ewing theory going on with the packers. There's some major luck shit going on with the bears being the luckiest team in the league. The packers had multiple games when they didn't punt but lost, which usually doesn't happen.

What's your biggest angle for this one, Billy?

I have two for this one also.

Okay.

All right. First storyline to watch, Matt Lafleur versus Ben Johnson.

Have that written That's what I'm talking about as well.

Maybe rivalry because at the moment- Yeah, got a little testy. At the moment, it's a very one-sided rivalry in favor of Ben Johnson, who seems to be trying to make this a rivalry, and Matt Lafleur, who is not paying attention to him whatsoever. In terms of this is a rivalry. So it starts with Ben Johnson, introductory press conference. They ask him, one of the reasons you came here, whatever, and he throws out there, I like beating Matt Lafleur twice a year. So then Matt Lafleur goes on a podcast. He goes on Busting with the Boys, and they ask him, hey, what did you make of those comments that Ben Johnson said? And he said, I don't really know Ben Johnson, so there's no beef whatsoever. So he in saying- It's a diffusing. It's diffusing, but also at the same time escalating. I don't know who this person is, but I'm going to take the higher ground here and pretend that I am not aware of Ben Johnson, which is crazy.

So he's basically like, I don't want to punch down. Yeah, exactly. In its own way, it's insulting.

He's killing the little brother.

Exactly. So it's like a very backhanted, I'm not getting into this. I'm Matt Lafleur. So that's the last we hear of it until they play each other, where they have two very quick frost exchanges after each game. It was very brief. There was nothing very welcoming there. There was nothing that you felt like, okay, these are guys that respect each other or have respect for each other, right? And then that's seemingly the end of it. Unless you want to read between the lines and you want to read into comments that weren't directed directly at Matt LaFleur, which was Ben Johnson. Ben Johnson, in the postgame press conference after week 18, he was asked, why did you have your starters out there? Because you look at teams like the Eagles who rested their starters. You look at the packers who rested their starters. Now, the packers had reason for resting their starters. They were pretty much locked in at And also the packers last year had injuries in week 18 against the bear. So they said, you know what? We're not going to mess around with this again. We're just going to rest everyone. They're banged up anyway.

Exactly. Micah is out. Jordan gets now an extra week of rest headed into the playoff. So it benefits them to rest their players. However, Ben Johnson is one of the young and up and coming rough football guys from the world of Dan Campbell. And when they ask him, why did you play your starters here? He said, we play football. Is that a Is that a backhanded message over towards Matt LaFleur saying, You know what? You're not taking every advantage here playing football. You're not respecting the game. You're not playing the full 18 weeks of the season. You're backing out. That's not us. We play football. Come hell or dry water.

Yeah, that feels like a fuck you house.

I mean, on the one hand, I love it. It also will be hilarious if LaFleur, if Green Bay wins and immediately... Well, he wouldn't do it because that would evidence of beefing down. But if he slipped in there, We played football today, that would really just be. That would take it next level.

By the way, really smart for him to play it the way he played it because he got the extra week to just prepare for the bears, right? Although the eagles almost screwed that up by that whole thing. He could have been preparing for the bears for a week, and then all of a sudden, they're playing the eagles anyway. I didn't mind it, though, especially when you have a QB coming off a concussion. They've had some offensive line injuries. Let's be ready for this one. What's the other angle you had, Billy?

Well, on that one, real quick, another thing that you can watch for in the postgame press conference, we talked about it with Shield this week on the Ringer NFL show. So this game, because they split and now they're facing off in the playoffs, it has set up a situation where either coach in the postgame press conference can say, I like beating the other team twice a year. So they can bring it back. And now there's three games, so it's not undefeated. But either Ben Johnson or Matt LaFleur can come out and send a message to the other one saying, I like beating Ben Johnson twice a year. I like beating Matt LaFleur twice a year. So that's still in play if you want to watch after the game.

Wait, hold on one thing on that. If Dobbs catches the onside kick, that means the packers beat the bears twice this season. Then we move into the land of, it's so hard to beat a team three times in one year. Did Dobbs intentionally miss the onside because they knew they'd be playing each other again? Who knows? Did they tell him? It's much easier to go this route. It's also one of those things- It is easier, though, for them now. It makes more sense that they would win the playoff.

You also then show them, you give them this false sense of confidence. Like, look, we beat them during the regular season. Maybe then you go to overtime, so you see them whip out some tricks that maybe they weren't planning on showing you. Now you may have an advantage and maybe giving them that game, if you look back, who knows?

They stumbled into an advantage. Was not their intention, but I think it's better that they lost that game. What's your next angle?

All right, here's another angle. There's a battle presently going on, I don't know if you know this, of foam heads. So obviously, everybody knows about the cheese heads that the packers wear. I don't know if you caught on to this, but after the game winning countdown, DJ Moore were a cheese grater head, and he was celebrating the game with a cheese grater head. And the bears have since been wearing cheese grater heads. Now, we've done some research into this situation. Here's the deal. Okay, those cheese grater heads were made by a company called Foam Party Hats. Foam Party Hats initially was making cheeseheads until the packers sent them a cease and desist and told them, You need to stop making cheeseheads in 2024-ish. So to respond to the cease and desist, they said, We are now going to make cheese grater heads. And now that is why they've made these heads. And they didn't really catch on at first. But now, since that game-winning shutdown, DJ Moore wearing it, now these hats are becoming a thing that you'll see out there. And it's all because of a cease and desist that the packers sent to a company that was at one time supporting them.

And this is all leading to the packers winning and somebody in the packers taking the cheese grater head and doing this. I think that's what you just laid out is great for the packers house.

I couldn't agree more.

I love- That's like just chalkboard shit. Exactly. You're actually making cheese grater hats? Fuck you.

Right. You're the bears. What are you doing?

There's another thing here, Billy, that you didn't mention.

Okay.

Bears felt It felt a little cheap shot in that love hit, that knocked love in, that concussed them. And the multiple packers had mentioned it. Yeah. That they didn't like the hit. So you got that one, too. There's some chalkboard material all over the place here.

So you think Maybe there's a little late, Oh, we didn't hear the whistle on Caleb Williams, possibly here.

Very possible. From the nerd stats, the most appalling thing, packers finished 19th defensively in DBOA and EPA, 21 past 19 runs. Their defense hasn't been great, but they've also been bagged up. The bears have been just bad on defense, as we discussed. Chicago's three wins. They beat Green Bay and OT on the onside kick game. They beat Pittsburgh by three, and they beat Philly by nine. Those were their best three wins. As many people have mentioned, they easily could have been seven and 10 this year if you just switched the luck a little bit. There's only three manifesto games rules here. The discount first 5 to 6 weeks of the season, which is when the packers look pretty unstable. Don't dismiss the nerd evidence. So the bears thing, it's an issue. The head coach's rule, number 15. We talked about, is there a coach that you're worried about? Why don't we have a klapper this year? There's some Matt Lafleur stuff that's out there. There's some Matt Lafleur detractors. There's There's some packer fans who are not sure about this guy. There's been some up and down stuff with him. There's some people are like, look at his record.

He's been successful every year. He's made it work with every QB. And there's been some other people who are like, what does he want? What about this game? What about that game? So it's just warrants mentioning. There's a blueprint here of packers dominate the game. Bairs get their two fucking lucky plays, however those happen. Lafleur screws up something. That's what worries me because, fellows, I love the Green Bay packers in this game. And this is the first lock for me. Packers minus one and a half in Chicago. I just think they're better, and I think they're going to be able to throw all over the bears. And I think you can. We saw San Francisco move the ball. Would they score five straight touch downs in that bears game? I just think they're going to be able to move the ball up and down the field on them. And I watched both of the games they played. I thought the packers, I just think they're better. And if the bears win this game, it will be a fucking voodoo game. So that's where I stand. Where do stand house?

I don't like the strategy that they used last week of playing everybody and trying to win that Lyons game.

And putting them miles on themselves and losing anyway.

They lost. That's the worst part about it.

The worst part When did they last?

That defense was on the field for 70 plays, over 70 plays. Their buy week was week five. It's time to rest, this time of the season. So there is already a strategy advantage that I think that Green Bay has. I think this factors into the floor Johnson assessment. One guy has been here before. Now, he did have to learn the hard way. He played his guys in week 18 last season, and they came in. They still gave Philadelphia everything Philly wanted in Philadelphia in round one, even with the injuries that they suffered. But I think very quietly, they're coming in here, very prepared, not intimidated one bit, ready to establish their version, their game script here at the very outset of this. The counter will be the bear's ability to establish the run. The run has been their bread and butter.

Can they run the ball down the packer's throat? That's exactly right. But on the flip side, Jacobs, you always talk about Jacobs when he's healthy. And it seems like they got Jacobs pretty healthy for January, and I think they can run the ball on the bear. So I just think they're going to be able to move the ball on the bears, and I'm always going to take that. I actually like the packers in a tease just as much to plus four and a half, but for the purpose of this, we'll go minus one and a half. Billy, what do you have in this game?

I think I have the packers winning this one also. I feel like You mentioned the fact that the bears had their buy in week five. The packers also had their buy in week 5. I think that you were talking about the coaching in Lafleur. Lafleur may have shown us the advantage in coaching a longer period of time by saying, You know what? We haven't had rest. It was not even in this game. It was last week. We haven't had rest since week 5. We're already locked in. Let's get our guys healthy because there's nothing we can really do here but hurt ourselves. So let's go into this as healthy as possible, as rested as possible, where the bears are going into it and they're just Ben Johnson wanted to prove himself in the league. He plays everyone when he already had the two-seed, didn't realize, I guess, that the Eagles had four feet, essentially, the two-seed. He could have looked up at any point in time and realized what was going on and that they were safe with the two-seed and rested his guys. But that's not what happened. So they're lucky that they didn't get anybody hurt and they're going in at full strength.

But I feel like the fact that the packers got that extra week of rest, they gave themselves a buy headed into the playoffs is going to be beneficial Because both games that they played, they've played this what? The third time in six weeks that they've played each other. They know each other. Both games were very close. So I think that health might be what the advantage is in this situation. And that's where the packers have the advantage, the upper hand.

There's one of my favorite theories in play, too, here house. The bears. When was the last really important bears playoff game? The crowd's going. It's a Saturday night. It's the most important bear for a lot of people. People bring in their kids who are 13 who have never been to a huge bears game, people flying in to Chicago. Sometimes if you can punch those teams in the mouth early, that crowd gets super shell-shocked. On the flip side, if it goes well for the bears right away, it becomes the most festive, fucking crazy atmosphere. I almost feel like the first quarter, you're going to know whoever you picked. You're going to be like, Oh, man, I can't. It's going to be one of those. You'll know in the first half hour with this game, I think.

The weird thing about those two games is that they ended up being great games, but both first halfs sucked. Yeah, there were stinkers. Week 14 is 7-3 at halftime. Week 16, it was 6-0 at halftime. They were both not good games at the beginning and then turned into great ones in the second half.

The bears did that a few times this year where they just limp along offensively for two plus hours. The burden piece is, I think, a fun wrinkle for this because he really was good in that week 17 game against the Niners. And Collinsworth is making it seem like he knew this was coming for weeks, but it was really like his breakout game. But if they can get a Dunes day back and have actually some weapons, but I like the packers. Well, this next This one is my favorite of the six on the board, Bill's Jags. I've tipped this off a couple of times this week. I love the Jaguars in this game. I can't believe they're not favorite. I literally can't believe it. Way to DVOA, their third. They have some really nice wins, including beat Houston by seven, beat the Chargers by 29, one in Denver by 14, killed Carolina, beat San Francisco by five. Buffalo's big wins are the Pats, where they came back from 21 down on one by four, and then they killed Pittsburgh. And that was it. They had as easy of a schedule as the Patriots did. Mildly warm weather, which I think we have to mention.

We don't know if Josh Allen is completely healthy. We don't know if we trust the Bills kicker at all. Bill's defense last two months gave up 30 to Billy's Miami Dolphins, 32 to Tampa, 34 to Cincinnati, 31 to the Pats. And most important, the Jags have went eight straight. And they beat Denver, and they really whipped Denver and the Chargers. They did 30 first downs in that Chargers game. I don't get it. What am I missing, Billy?

All right, so here is my storyline for this game. Does Trevor Lawrence pull the classic Royal Rumble move where he's just been forgotten, essentially, sneak back into the conversation and win a playoff game. Because everybody's painting this game as, look, there's now a clear path. There's no roadblocks for Josh Allen. Mahomes is out. Lamar Jackson is out. There's no Joe Burrow. There's only one stadium that Josh Allen hasn't played in his career. It's Levi's Stadium. Is this his path? Is Super Bowl a destiny for Josh Allen this season? And we've completely forgotten about Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence comes into the league and he's viewed as, this is a generational quarterback. This is the best quarterback we've seen since Andrew Luck, who was the best quarterback we'd seen since Peyton Manning. And then he goes and he has the first season where he has a bad season, but that's Urban Meyer. So there's an asterisk for Trevor Lawrence on his first season.

Big fat asterisk.

Second season, 9: 08, wins five straight games, goes to the playoff. They're losing that game the entire time.

The Chargers game.

An absolute collapse by the Chargers. So he wins that game. Next season, Trevor Lawrence. Okay, this is the year that Trevor Lawrence, he arrived last season. He took his team to the playoff, gets that playoff win. This is the season that he takes that next step. 8: 08 season, five straight losses to end the year. They missed the Then he gets injured last year. This season starts out five and four. So you're like, you know what? This may not actually happen for Trevor Lawrence.

We were on this podcast. I was out. Done. Okay. Because when you blow two in a row, this is the year's, I'm out.

It seemed like he... Okay. So him and Josh Allen were opposite, right? Where Josh Allen came in, he's a number seven pick. His team is booing him. The fans are booing the draft pick. He has a complete disaster first season in terms of turnovers. Then Brian Dable fixes him. Then all of a sudden, he makes his way up to top tier one or tier two of quarterbacks, and then he's in the discussion. Then it becomes a question of, When is he going to finally win the big one? When is he going to get over that hump? When can he beat the Chiefs? And then he wins the MVP, so we give him a pass. So it's like, Okay, well, Josh Allen's there. Now he has a clear field, so now the pressure's on Josh Allen. Trevor Lawrence is that boxer that goes in. He leaves five minutes into the Royal Rumble. He's laying outside by the announcement's booth. He's forgotten. He's hiding under the ring. No one remembers that Trevor Lawrence is even there. He's hiding under the ring? I like this. Yeah, he's pulling a horn twongle.

Did he get knocked out? I don't even remember. No, he's still there.

It's a Jericho. You forget that he's even still in the match until there's three people left. All of a sudden, he slides right back into the conversation. That's where Trevor Lawrence is. Because you were saying, you were out on him earlier this year. On the NFL show with Sheil, we were talking about, do these quarterbacks have it? Are these quarterbacks These are just not good quarterbacks. And the number one conversation that we had is, are these good quarterbacks? Was Trevor Lawrence. And since we had that conversation- I remember, I listened to that in New York City in November, and I felt like that was the same Trevor Lawrence conversation for two years.

Does he have it? What's going on here?

Then he went on an eight-game win streak, and he shut us up very quickly.

You put a fire under him. Yeah.

But everyone, again, has forgotten Trevor Lawrence in the conversation of next round of quarterbacks. And now there's a new batch of young quarterbacks who are there. And Trevor However, Lawrence is existing in this nice world where there doesn't seem to be any pressure on him whatsoever. I wonder if now this is when he thrives.

You know who hasn't forgotten about him? His teammates. Did you see the Diamond Grill video?

I did see the girl that they gave him.

His teammates love him. It's weird because I always was like, he seems like a a strange teammate, but his teammates are all in. I've watched him. I've studied him in the postgame win videos when the coach turns it over to the QB. It It does seem like he's emerged. House, he's 10 touch downs, zero interceptions. His last three home games. They've won eight straight. He killed Denver in Denver. That was when I gave up. I was like, This guy's good. Denver's a good team. He went in there and he rammed it up their butt hole. House, what are your Trevor Lawrence's thoughts?

Well, you hit on one of the key aspects to this. Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars have been very good at home this year. This is a good home team.

They have a good crowd.

Good crowd. They have three wins over playoff teams, as well as good wins over the Chiefs early in the season. And I would say a good win over the Colts, who they own in Jacksonville.

So I'm glad you mentioned that. Yeah, they beat KC in Indiana, Indianapolis, when those teams were actually good. And those that don't get counted in the playoff wins, but they were playoff wins at the time. So they've had seven really good wins.

And by contra-distinction, this is the splits between Buffalo at home and Buffalo on the road are stark. I just feel like I can see that Jacksonville crowd. I can see the symbiosis between Leon Cohen and Trevor Lawrence. They finally are at a spot where they're speaking the same love language. They understand how to tickle each other. It's been very successful. The thing we'll see is their ability to establish the run and especially establish the run outside. That's been Buffalo's Bugaboo all season long. But I just love the idea of the chase.

Do you think the bills are that good? I don't get it. It's basically Josh and some duct tape and some thumb tacks and some glue.

James Cooke. I mean, James Cooke. The run game.

The run game.

But I'm saying we've seen over and over again, they've fallen behind and then Josh brings them back, which was what happened in the second Pats game. Yeah, James Cook's really good. I think Jacksville can take James Cook out. So it'll come down to what Josh saying again.

Well, I think that they have what? They have one of the league's best rushing defenses. So it's the best rushing against the best rushing defense. It's a classic something's got to give game here. Do you think that Trevor Lawrence can lose a week where he's gifted grills by his teammates and then randomly shows up at a fan bar and is squatted by fans who put him over their shoulder?

I would say no. I think House and I are old. I've just seen this too many times now. This is why I think round two is going to be Jacksonville, New England to make the Super Bowl. I just think they have the look. They've hit every checkpoint. They're home. They're somehow underdog. Dogs. There's no world where this should be Bills by one and a half. I think this line should be Jacksonville by two and a half. From Manifesto, Nobody believes in us. They got that. They got the cold weather team playing in human weather. They have the nerd evidence, and they have the home field advantage. Buffalo, the only thing you would point to them is like, Trevor Lawrence is going to turn to a pumpkin. He's been waiting to do this to you for nine weeks. Don't trust him. But I trust him after the Denver game. I thought he answered all the questions. I have a prop for you. Etn, 60 plus rushing yards, Tootin, 20 plus rushing yards, Lawrence, 20 plus rushing yards, Jags, plus one and a half, plus 458 house. Just back in the old Jags running the ball a little a bit because I think they're going to run the ball on the bills.

I want to get it on that. So send it to me.

And also, if you think Buffalo is going to win this game, the South Special is in play. Jags went in the first half, Buffalo went in the game. Big Josh Allen come back. That's plus 6: 50, Billy. I love the Jags plus one and a half. I love the Jags and any tease. House and I, I promise you, will be teasing the Jaguars and the packers this weekend. I already know it. I know we're going to text Billy, who do you have?

I have the Jaguars winning also. I feel like they have the momentum. Trevor Lawrence has no one paying attention to him. I feel like they're going to establish the run with Etienne. I mean, his over 15 and a half rushing attempt is plus 110 if you want to take him. The Bills have a good pass defense, so they're probably going to want to establish a run against the Bills. I feel like maybe weather comes into play, maybe it gets a little wet here, but I think that the Jaguars pull this one out.

We did mention the other coach that is a little gamey for these play-ups, Sean McDermott.

He seems to sneak by every year.

Every year. Every single year. Every year, it's stuff that I never feel great about. I thought I was out on this Bills team as a play-off threat when they had the Brandon Cooke's variable in that. What was that? The Eagles game when Brandon Cooke's made the big play. I was like, Brandon Cooke's is on the bills? I had no idea. We've reached that point of the receiver season for these guys. It's like, Kean Coleman is a healthy scratch. I think the Jags can get explosive plays. I think they can run the ball. I think their defense is good. They're going to be fired and nobody believes in them. We're going to take one more break. We'll do the other three games. Eagles minus four and a half, 49ers is our next game. This is a Saturday afternooner. It's probably going to be cold. The nerd stats do not like San Francisco's defense. I don't like San Francisco's defense. They lost their two best players. They patched stuff together. Now they've lost all their linebackers. They got run up and down the field by the bears. Then that Seahawks game in week 17 felt like that could have been more of a blowout than it was.

Sam Darnal had other ideas. San Francisco's last 10 games, they've averaged 27. 5 points a game, even with the Staker against Seattle. Philly's last nine games is 19 points a game. Philly's laying four and a half in this. The only case I can think of for Philly here is that it's hard for them to score points, and it's easier for San just go to score points. And if you just do the points, this will be in the 20s and it'll be close and take the points. Billy, I don't want to take the points, but what's your angle?

I have three story lines to watch in this one. First story line to watch is the fix in. So if you start looking at this game, do you want the Eagles to go on a deep run here? Do you want a potential situation where you have an established team in the Super Bowl? We talked about there aren't really name brands. If you're buying into the fact that the fix may be in any games in this playoff, it might be this one where the head official assigned to this game is Allan Eck. Allan Eck has been an official in the NFL since 2016. He wears number 76. That's not important. But he grew up in William Sport, PA, allegedly grew up an Eagles fan. In games that he's officiated, the Eagles have an 8-1 record where the 49ers have a 3-6 record. Oh, wow. Will there be home cooking with this officiating crew?

I like it. This is good. Good start. Strongens our Eagles case. What do you got next?

All right. What's the expiration date on a revenge game? Because a lot that's being talked about in this game is going back to the NFC Championship game a couple of years ago, which ended up being a disastrous game where Brock Purdy goes out, Josh Johnson goes out.

Yeah, that was... And also, was it the Eagles's fault that their guys got hurt?

I mean, the 49ers fan seems to be holding this against the Eagles for all of these years. But can you have a revenge game if the first First game is an NFC Championship game, and the second one is a wild card weekend round. I feel like this is not fitting of the title of Revenge Game, but both fan bases are trying to make this a thing, it seems.

That's dumb. I don't agree with it. The But the Eagles defense, look at the personnel. It's basically 100% different.

Well, and it's also 100%. Has anybody heard on Philly's defense anymore? Aren't they healthy and coming and ready to roll?

Yes.

What's the third angle, Billy?

All right, here's a storyline that you should watch that has come out, a report that came out this week that you might want to look into. It doesn't affect this game because it's in Philadelphia. However, there has been a study into this electrical substation outside of Levi's Stadium.

We read this.

That's incredible. Keep an eye on that situation because that is something that could play out in the Super Bowl because it's in Levi's Stadium, and it It could be an explanation for why it is that the 49ers have been getting so hurt. You have a guy who's the founder of something called Sunlight is Life, which is described as a platform for transforming your relationship with light for maximum impact on health. He went out there with something called a Gauss meter, and he started taking readings at the practice field where he said the reading is 8. 5 milligrams when the average is somewhere in, I think, the 0. 3 to 5 range. Then he went to the weight room and the milligrams were somewhere in the 10 to 25 range.

Then they were telling them to leave. They started to get testy with them.

Well, I start wondering why they figured out the situation. There's a lot of Millegausses going on, apparently, near Levi's Stadium. Apparently, because of the fact that there's this substation right next to the stadium, there's an increased exposure to chronic ELF, and that ends up affecting cartilages and could lead to ruptures. So the explanation for why it is that the 49ers have been so hurt over the years and why people get hurt at Levi's Stadium. Some people have said it's probably the turf, it's probably the playing surface. But no, it might be this substation that's right across the street from Levi's Stadium.

Well, you undersold. They have... What was it? They had like Way more tendon injuries than everybody else the last 10 years. Like a much... Like an aberration type of number.

It's tendons, ligaments, and Achilles, all of those injuries. It's way higher than the average, not just with them, but with visiting teams coming and getting hurt. It's something that should be considered. Maybe not for this game because it's a road game, but someone needs to look into this situation.

Don't worry. I had it down as one of the manifesto rules that apply to this game. Rule number 5, beware of any team that could use a notable offfield distraction or tragedy as a galvanizing force. Could it be the Niners, like a Normal Ray or Silkwood situation, the work proletariat rising up to protest the ELM, bands them together? I don't know. We We found it.

We thought that it didn't exist, but we found the rally.

Could it be like they be like, They refuse to play in round two if they don't fix the electromagnetic force? That's in danger in their attendance. I thought that was the weirdest story of the year. The year is only eight days old. The other one was the Ashley Tisdale Mom Group, Toxic Mom Group story. I don't know if you followed that one. Then the people in the Mom Group came flying back at her. I don't know this one. You didn't follow this one?

I don't know this one.

Ashley Tisdale wrote an essay about her Toxic Mom Group that shut her out and excluded her and how mean everybody was. Then the Mom Group started lobbing shots back. This was my wife's Super Bowl. I had the NFL play-off. My wife had this.

Hilary Duff's husband was then subtweeting her, basically taking pictures the picture that she put in her essay. And then they started bringing in seemingly non-celebrity moms in this mom group and putting out pictures of their whole family. Like, look at this person. This is who this is. You should hate them. It's very weird. It's very weird. And here's the thing about Ashley Tisdale that I think she's going to learn. And my wife is not part of any celebrity mom groups. But something that she'll learn, normal mom groups, normal dad groups, exactly the same and exactly as toxic as celebrity mom and dad groups is what you're going to find.

Yeah, don't exclude us.

Nothing has anything. Celeverity has nothing to do with it. They are toxic people in all of these parent groups. You're not going to escape it.

Yeah, it's the mom spend more time talking about the other moms in the group than their own kids. I can't believe that she had that party and didn't invite blank. Then that's just three days of text and arguments. It's never really been captured in the TV show. I've never seen it captured correctly in an HBO, the whole mom group concept.

You think that's the angle?

I don't think it's enough. That's probably why it hasn't been captured. But I guess the closest was Big Little Lies, got into it a little bit with the Nicole Kidman show. Got into It's some of it, but not in the way. Maybe this will be a TV show, the Ashley Tisdale.

I mean, it's the premise of Every Housewives, though. No scripted show, I guess.

Yeah, the reality.

Yeah, Every Housewives, The Norman Wives on Hulu. All of those really capture the essence of this story.

Well, the problem with the mom groups, the dad groups, we're just meaner. We'll cut people out. The mom groups, once people in, they're in for life. Yeah. And once you get added to the text chain, you can't get out of that.

Well, it's because there's always an ally.

There's always Yeah, they always have the one. Yeah, because that's what... We saw this in college. These groups of giant 16-person girl groups. And then there are all these little rivalries and things going on in the middle of it.

You also have the private allies that won't speak out publicly. And then you're like, what are you doing? You're on my side. What's happening here? Why don't you stand up for me here?

The Switzerland. That's house. Yeah, house never stands up for anybody.

How dare you.

House, any angles for you before I go into the manifesto for this? No, we covered- For eagles That's nice. All right.

Go ahead. You're going to make the pick.

Well, nobody believes in us is in play for the Niners. We mentioned the galvanizing force. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win. This is a big one. Rule number 14, the law of Lombardi, bad offensive lines, don't travel. It doesn't look like Trent Williams in this game for the Niners. If I knew he was playing, I would be more excited about Rams plus four and a half. I also don't love how McCafree looked the last couple of weeks with the back stuff. Ricky Pearsall might We talked about all the defensive. I just feel like sometimes in football, you can pass the point of no return with injuries. I feel like we're there with the Niners. I wish they were healthier because I would love to go against this Eagles team. Coaching stuff, we talked about. Home field advantage, we talked about. There's a parlay possibility for Ringer 107 house with Eagles's money in either under 51. 5 or over 37. 5. Do you have a strong feel on over under in this? Because we I know Egl's methodical, nick Seriani does the thing. He tries to limit the amount of minutes in the game because he feels like he has a better team.

But does the under 51. 5 intrigue you at all?

Well, I already bet the under. It opened at 46 It's down to 44 and a half. I bet it again. I think this is a classic Philadelphia EGLE's strangle a team. And we just watched this football game. It was the Seattle Seahawks in San Francisco winning 13 to three. As soon as this eagles team gets to 10 points or 13 points or 16 points, the game is over.

They're going to the four corners. Do you like that, Billy? Eagles money line with under 51 and a half, and then we don't have to worry about the hook or are you just like, equals minus four and a half?

I think I'd take a minus four and a half. Looking at the second part of rule number 15, would you trust either of these coaches with your passport went abroad? Shana has... Siriani, I feel like, would very easily I'll really lose my passport and all my possessions.

That's what Big Dom is for. You have to give it to Big Dom.

Yeah, that's true. Well, he would have Big Dom, so he might not lose it.

He knows he can't manage the passport. That's why he has Big Dom.

That Super Bowl saved him because he was on the hot seat forever. And that almost seemed like if there's a coach that gets fired after winning a Super Bowl, it's probably nick Siriani, just because he seems like that type of guy. But Shana Hans also sneaky in a situation when you're like, Are we going to get over this hump? There's been the injuries. There's been that substation across the street that's been sabotaging you, obviously, in your players health. But when are you going to take this to the next level? What's going on here?

Well, the comeback stat with him is the weirdest one. The no comebacks from more than seven in the fourth quarter since 2017. That's got to be the weirdest stat in the week. All right, so we'll either for a Ringer 107, we'll either do eagles minus four and a half. We'll make a game time decision on that. Next game. This is where House and I, our friendship is going to be tested. Patriots minus three and a half chargers. The nerd stats favor the Pats. Chargers nerd stats, surprisingly disappointing, including their offense, which is 26 past EPA. The Pats were first. Chargers defense, nine versus the pass against EPA and third against the run. So that's a big strength with them. Both teams have three wins against decent teams. Chargers lost to Jacksonville by 19, Houston by 4, and Indianapolis when they were good by 14. The Pats last 14 Billy, what do you think they're averaging points per game? Last 14 games.

Twenty-two.

Thirty-point-seven.

Wow.

Easy schedule. It's a lot more. They haven't scored less than 24 since week three. They've Twenty-eight games, or 10 games over 28 points. And before Billy gets to his big angle on this game, I just want to say two things about the quarterbacks. Do you have quarterbacks in your angle?

I have a quarterback of Tracin angles.

Do your angle, and then I'll do my thing.

All right. Well, the first angle, we can do this angle very quick. This is the third angle, but we'll get to it quickly to get it out of the way. What happened to Justin Herbert? This is along the same lines of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert was promised to be this guy. He's this great quarterback. It's just a situation that's not working. 0-2 in the playoff, he has that collapse against Trevor Lawrence.

One of the worst losses.

He has a good record, obviously, this season, 11-6.

By the way, really bad Last year in the playoff game. Don't sweep that one under the rug either.

He's not been good in the playoffs. He hasn't lived up to the hype, but he also is living in the world of Trevor Lawrence. It's like, oh, we just forgot about him because he didn't pan out to be exactly what we thought he'd be. Maybe he'll still get there. He's still in the playoff.

The nerds didn't forget about him. The nerds still love him.

Well, the nerds have loved the chargers for the longest time because the nerds love Brandon Staley also. That was their poster child was Brandon Staley. And the nerds took a big hit, and I think it hurt their heart when Brandon Staley got fired so quickly. So they're almost forced to love Herbert because they don't want to give up. It's like the process, right? They don't want to admit the process was wrong, so they're just going to keep moving the goalpost. No, we still believe in Justin Herbert. It's just circumstances. It's not Justin Herbert's fault. So that's one thing to look at. Here's another storyline. Is there any chance in the world that Patriots Hall of Fame Tom braided, wants the Patriots to win this game.

Zero. Oh, no. He does like Josh McDaniels. That would be the only thing.

He likes Josh McDaniels, but he has really been put in a bad spot with this Drake May because Drake May very well may win the MVP this season. If he wins the MVP this season, that little feud in Tom braided has lost. They found their franchise quarterback, they win an MVP. Now, if he doesn't win the MVP, but they win a playoff game, we know Drake May is the future for the Patriots. Patriots. I don't think that Tom braided even wants them to win this game. A guy that's in their Hall of Fame has a statue, I believe, is actively rooting for the Chargers to beat the Patriots just out of jealousy in spite for Drake May, which is insane because he has nothing to be jealous of with Drake May.

The good news is he's not announcing this game. I forgot to mention this as part of the Rams Panthers thing. Greg Olson is announcing the game.

Oh, boy. I might put 40 bucks on the Panthers money I mean, it's just shitty to do to the Rams fans.

You're watching your team play a playoff game. Somebody has a nest in the game who loves the other team and can't hide it, basically. I think he might even live there.

Olson with the Panthers, the ref in the East.

Yeah, that's what I'm doing in the Panthers game. I just wanted to mark that down. All right, what was your third thing, Billy?

My third one, and this is very inside that relates just to this show in this company. I'm wondering how the outcome of this game is going to affect your debut on Netflix because you're coming straight out of this game.

You're not the only one wondering about this.

If this is a situation, it's like the weather is going to be a little bit sloppy, 26 degrees, partly cloudy, 25% chance of precipitation. You're coming right out of this game.

Like, literally right out. We're here.

Or a low. You're going to have no time to decompress whatsoever. No. Your actual full emotions will be on display. How are you going to handle if the Patriots have a late game situation where they blow this game?

I did mention to somebody two days ago that if it was a Tyler book ending, And we were going live four minutes later. I don't... That might be the first time I try Cocaine House.

Oh, I encourage that, please. Write a code on Netflix.

Let's do that. No, I It's definitely a psychology experiment. I'm hoping the Patriots make it a little bit easier for us with that.

Do you think you're going to be able to enjoy the game knowing that you're going to go live right after? What point do you... I need to get into podcast mode, sit down, turn the equipment on and get ready to go.

I don't think I've ever enjoyed a game where my team was favored to win the game and it was a playoff game. I don't know how you enjoy that. The enjoyable ones are when you're like the 2001 Pats when we were 10-point underdogs in Pittsburgh. I love the house money playoff games. This one where they're favored. I feel like the AFC is open. I feel like they're better than most people think they are, including house. There's a lot at stake. The big angle for me, on top of your angles, I genuinely think Drake May is special as a quarterback. I really feel like he's great. He's like Mahomes in 2018, where after a while, you're like, This guy's fucking great. Then he want to play Jaden Daniels last year who won two road playoff games. Jaden Daniels, who got hurt this year, but last year- Could say him. At some point, we watched Jaden Daniels. It was like, This guy's great. We've had this happen with quarterbacks every once in a while in the playoffs. I just think he has it. I think his teammates think he has it. So for me, it's like, I think they're going to be able to move the ball.

They got their left tackle back. I think they're going to be able to run the ball a little more than people realize because of Ramondre and Henderson coming on. I think the chargers have a lot of trouble, especially if Hampton is not 100% healthy. They don't score a lot of points. The chargers, what do they have? It's basically like 19 points a game. Their last 10 or something. They play 17, 14, 20 to 16 type of games. Herbert in the playoffs, I like.

He's also fumbled a lot lately. He only had two fumbles, I think, in the first 12 games. He fumbled the ball five times since he heard his non-throwing hand. So if it's not ideal conditions, he could be turning this ball over.

We have play-off manifesto rule, the law of Lombardi, bad offensive lines, don't travel. Who has a worse offensive line than the Chargers? We have the warm weather team coming to play in the cold weather at night. We have the never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe they can win, which house thinks they can win, and then the home field advantage. But I just think the pats are better than people think. I don't think people realize that they didn't have Milton and Will Campbell for four or five weeks there. People got too fixated on the schedule. They can move the ball. They have number one offense by EPA, and they have a quarterback who's excellent. House, make the case against them.

Yeah, I'm not going to be a prick about it. I just think that three and a half is too many points. I wouldn't mess with this if it was two and a half or two or whatever. Like the Patriots as a home field, having a home field advantage as a 14 and three two seed, I'd leave it alone. But three and a half is too many. And there's a handful of reasons why. First of all, this Shargers team is tough. They've won tough games. They have three wins over playoff teams. They swept the Chiefs. And we watched that Monday night game against the Philadelphia Eagles, still stuck in my kra. Now, Hertz aided and abetted the demise of the Eagles in that game. But Herbert was pressured 70% of the time and took seven sacks, and they won that effing football game because their defense shut down the Eagles. Now, I'm not suggesting that the Eagles offense and New England's offense are equivalents. They certainly are not. I don't really have much quibble with Drake May winning MVP this year. I think there's a good case for Safford. But if Drake May wins, I'm certainly not going to be upset.

The problem I have is what you've hit on a couple of times, which is, what do we about this Patriots team against tough competition. They placed one good quarterback, who's Josh Allen. They split with him. Justin Herbert is going to be the second best quarterback that they face all season long. Fourteen wins for the Patriots. Eleven of those wins have come against teams with rookie quarterbacks, backup quarterbacks, or back quarterbacks that got benched. Eleven of 14. So that goes to a lot of what we were talking about with the Can I zag on that point? You can.

I think that's why people are off the Patriots a little bit because I think people are too fixated on the schedule.

Well, not fixated. It's just what happened.

But I think they're actually a good team is my point. We're going to find out. They're 13 and one in their last 14. We're going to find out. In the Buffalo game, they're up 21. They really could have won their last 14. That's the part I'm confused by. The quarterback's great. They can run the ball and throw the ball, and they're home. And three and a half is a fair line. I I honestly think they should be favorite by four, but what do I know?

It's a playoff debut, though, for him. Do you think that's going to impact him at all, or you think he's just got it?

I went back and I looked to Mahomes. Mahomes had the zero touch down, zero picks in his first playoff game, which they won, and then had the 37, 31 long game against the Pats. I haven't seen no defense. If you blitz him, he knows what to do. If you play back in zone, he knows what to do. The only issue with this team is sometimes they start out slow, and there's a scenario where they start They got slow. Chargers get the McConkey 35-yard breakdown or whatever. They're playing behind. Can I debunk the Chargers defense for a second? Because the stats are really good for them, and I think people think they're really good. I'm just going to lay I got some stuff here. They played Vegas twice, and they played KC twice. And I don't think... Does anyone think KC had a good offense even with Mahomes? They were fine. Mediocre, not explosive. They couldn't run the ball. They were a 500 team. They had two games where the best wide out on the other team, Blue Out as ACL in the first half of the game, Neighbors and Tyreek Hill. So there's another two.

They played broken Carson-Wence in Minnesota. They played Tennessee. They played Week 18, Denver when nobody cared. Dallas, Pickens had 130 on them. Aj, that Philly game when Philly was in a coma, AJ still ended up with 100. Sutton had 6 for 118 in the first game. Jacksonville smoked them. Indianapolis smoked them with deep balls and running everything earlier in the season. Washington beat them 27-10. You remember that one house?

I did. Multiple big players.

Houston beat them a couple of weeks ago, got two bombs in the first quarter, and that made the difference. And the only one that you could really make the case their defense was awesome was when they shut down Pittsburgh. But I don't know if their defense is as good as people seem to think it is. We'll find out on Sunday night.

That's right. The thing they're good at is limiting explosives. There's a bunch of indicators that say that they don't allow deep passes.

I looked at that, but they've allowed a bunch of them, though. Houston had two weeks ago.

That's fine. But across the entire body of the season, they're one of the very best at limiting 20-yard or deeper passes.

And that's the thing- You're a white guy on Washington got a 50-yard on them.

They're gettable. Don't get it twisted.

I feel like they can get them.

Do you think the weather is going to allow explosive plays?

It hasn't seem to affect the Pats.

He's going to try and throw deep no matter what. He doesn't care about the weather.

I'll give you... Can I walk you through the worst case scenario for this game for the Pats? Ramondre fumble, some dumb special teams thing. Drake has the first half interception that makes everyone go, Oh, God, he's so young. Then some big charges explosive play.

The hot head coaching candidate is Jesse Minter, the defensive coordinator for for the chargers, right? I heard his name come out in connection with Baltimore. This is a referendum, right? When they've had Derwin James and Khalil Mack this season, it's been a pretty good defense.

Pats are pretty healthy. I'll throw this in, too, guys. Everyone's taking the chargers. This has been one of the popular... I think the most popular of the six for underdog picks has been the chargers. And I just think people are looking at the Pats schedule. So I like the spot the Pats are in minus three and a There's a prop I like to, Hunter Henry, 30 plus receiving yards on Fandil with the Pats just to win. That's minus 102. I think Hunter Henry will be heard from in this game. Hampton's hurt. Eduardo, who's a chargers fan who I'll probably not be talking to after Sunday night, who works on our podcast with us. Love it. Reminded me that Hampton got hurt near the end of that last game. Might not be 100%.

Gadsen's fine. Last thing I'll give you. How's New England against tight ends?

Got a guy by the name Mike Vrabel. Five times, five playoff games for him. Played Lamar twice, Tom braided, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes in those five games. 19. 8 points a game in those five games for the opponents.

There's some losses in there.

I'm just saying Mike Vrabel is a good coach, and I don't think he gets mentioned in this.

Harbaugh? Harbaugh, good coach?

How many Super Bowl's did Harbaugh win? The same as Mike Vrabel.

How many Super Bowl's has Vrabel been to other than as a player?

I'm taking Pats minus three and a half. House can fuck off.

We'll go to that next week. By the way, you're wrong. The percentage of bets is 64% for New England. The money is 65% New England. The public is not on New England.

That's not what the people in Boston, they think everybody's picking the chargers. I talked to my dad two hours ago. My dad said everyone's picking the chargers. That might have been an erroneous report for my 78-year-old retired father.

The assholes. Everybody's against us.

Jesus, everyone's against us. Texan Stealers. This dropped to... What was it? Minus two and a half went to three and a half. Now it's at three. Didn't it start at two and a half, though, house?

It definitely started at two and a half. Yes.

This is another one I love Billy.

You love the game?

Yeah, I do. Because initially, I had the same instincts everyone else had of, Oh, Houston. And then you start staring into it. You take a chug of the voodoo juice that Pittsburgh has. It's just improbable. This is great. It'll be the chase game for everybody who lost money on Saturday, Sunday, put money on Houston minus three. I've just seen this too many times.

Take 10 seconds. What's in voodoo juice? I mean, Iron City is the beer up there. Iron City beer. Put a tiny bit of that. But what's the liquor they drink up there? Ask Harleback, ask Craig. Well, let's make a voodoo juice. I'll drink it.

I'll drink it Monday night. There's some Permanee juice. Yeah, well, that's- There's some Mike Tomlin sweat.

The runover of the grease from the Pirmante sandwich.

I don't want that. Yeah, there's some Pirmante grease. Billy, what do you have for the angle?

So I have two story lines for this one. The First one, Texans are not a Monday team. If you look at the Texans in the playoffs, the Texans are a Saturday team. They should be playing on Saturday.

That's the Shaker's game.

This is the first game that they have played in the Wild Card round that is not on a Saturday. They're 6: 02 on Saturdays. When they advance and then they go and they play on Sundays, they've lost both Sunday games that they played. They're also 0: 02 on Monday night football this season, so they're not a Monday team. Craig mentioned it earlier this week. The Steelers haven't lost a home game on Monday Night Football since 1991. Texans are coming in hot, but it feels like... We talked about the fix being in another game with the officials. It feels like this game was put on Monday Night simply to give the Steelers a fighting chance. Give them the day. They played Sunday Night Football last week. Get Rodgers in there. Get Rodgers healthy. We can't have him play on short rest six days only after Sunday Night Football. We'll give him the Monday Night game, and then things will hopefully take care of themselves. We'll get the Tomlin narrative. We'll get the Rodgers narrative. Maybe this is the year he does one last run. It feels like maybe the fix was in with the scheduling on this one.

Plus, the Steelers now get Dike Metcalf back, where it's DK Metcalf. You saw how important he was. That game in Cleveland, they They should have wrapped up the division. They ended up not winning because of the fact there was no receivers out there. They ended up hanging on because of the missfield the last week where Dike would have been important to them. So Dike coming back is huge. But Texans, not a Monday night football team.

On top of that, there's some pretty disturbing CJ Stroud outdoor stats that I didn't love. There is some really, really alarming Houston rushing stats. And I had Woody Marks on my fantasy team. The problem with Woody Marks is he looks good for an hour, and then all of a sudden, he's not in the game anymore, and then he's got the red flag next to him.

He had a record, like 12 straight games or something that he left early, I think, during the season, right? Yeah, I don't trust him. In Pittsburgh, On a Monday night, then I'm down to nick Chubb.

Houston's offense, 30th EPA run. Defense, first against the pass, 11th against the run. That's the best reason to take them. Pittsburgh's ridiculous. You look at the Houston wins. Their best wins were Jacksonville, Buffalo, Chargers, Niners. They came back from 19 in that Jacksonville game with Davis Mills. That was weird. They beat Mac Jones in San Francisco. No Bosa and Warner was right after they got hurt. They beat Buffalo in that Thursday night game that I still don't know what happened. And Josh was driving at the end and they ended up losing. The Chargers game was just ridiculous where they got the two early passes, gazzed and fumbled at the goal line. That That was a dopey game. They lost to Jacksonville, the Ram, Seattle, and Denver. The big thing for me is a possible house that Pittsburgh is just a good, bad team. And they've roped us into this moment. Every win they've had was explicable. They wouldn't even be in the playoffs if Tyler Loop can just kick a field goal straight. Then they go into this and Houston's defense just runs over them. We're like, God, how stupid were we? We thought Pittsburgh was going to win that I'm willing to live with that outcome.

This is all the stuff. This is the worst football field, not just in professional football, but definitely in college, maybe in America. We have to go to some high school fields to find a football field as bad as this. Watch the guys when they run. It's sand getting kicked up every single time that anybody takes a meaningful step. And on top of that, part of the voodoo, we just watched it. It's impossible to kick the football in this field. Kyme Fairborn, he wants to miss extra points anyway. He wants to miss extra points when he's in his own dome stadium. Let him get out here. They're supposed to be the potential for precipitation. I knew I could get it out 10 times. I'll try it.

That was impressive, Hess.

Yeah, potential for precipitation. And just the usual weird wins and stuff. I mean, even the Steeler's own guy missed an extra point last week. That's how crazy it is.

I was trying to think the score of this game will definitely sound like a war that happened. It'll be like 1918, 17 13, 18, 16. You just know it's going to be weird and it won't be in the '20s.

Can I ask a weird question? Because this is something else that I was wanting to watch, a story to watch. Do we know that Mike Tomlin wants to win this game? Because there's been conversation about maybe he's on his way out. He's the longest tenure coach, 19 seasons.

There was some TV stuff with him that they thought maybe he was going into the wacky world of TV.

Listen, he's great for short sound bites, but there's no way long for Mike Tomlin on TV is going to work out in pregame shows. But it seems like it's a loveless marriage at this point where both sides are like, This isn't going to last forever. I don't want to be the one calls it quits. They're not going to fire him. They want him to just move on. But how does he do it? There's a talk out there, well, maybe he sees an opening like Atlanta. He goes down there. It's an easy division that he can win. But now that Harba is gone in what was a loser leaves town match, maybe that's a game where both people leave town after that game last week, right? Where Harba is out. And now Tomlin says, you know what? I don't have a franchise quarterback here. We have Aaron Rodgers. He hinted that this was his last season, but you never know with Aaron, now he makes a playoff. He says, You know what? I got one more ride in me. Do I really want to have a 20th season here? And my quarterback is 49-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who's not going to get it done.

I'm not going to win again. Or do I look over there where John Harbaugh John Harbaugh left. There's an opening over there. You have a franchise quarterback. You have a running back. What are you doing right now? You have a situation where you have Mike McDaniel, who can you bring in as an offensive coordinator to play with the toys.

This is amazing.

This is like a fucking W-W-E move.

He heads over to Baltimore after ending their season. And he has this roster that's so much better than what he's dealing with now. But you can't do that if you win a playoff game. So does he actually want to win this game and just prolong long as season that's going to end in disappointment anyways.

That's amazing. Mike Tomlin blowing this playoff game and then immediately joining the Ravens. I don't even... That's like Hogan joining the NWO. I can't even... It's on par with that.

I mean, counter. Why couldn't they win this playoff game, go get blown out in the next one, and then go right to Baltimore?

But here's the thing. What's keeping them? If they win this playoff game, they go to Denver.

They can definitely win in Denver.

Anyone can go and win in Denver. We've seen it over and over again.

It's hard to leave if you go on a run. You win one, maybe you get hot.

You end up in Denver.

Look, he's a man of integrity. He's not a man that I believe will toss the game. He's a man who, on countless occasions, has told us he does not blink. But should they lose, I don't think that he will think it's the worst thing in the world deep on the inside of him. He won't say it publicly, but on the inside, not the worst thing for Mike Tomlin.

So wow.

Manifesto rules. Nobody believes in us. Stewards, they qualify. Never pick an underdog unless you think they can win. Yes. Dome or warm weather teams playing outdoors in cold weather. Caching. Aging quarterbacks in cold weather, we've already decided Rodgers is immune. When in doubt, gravitate toward the one pick that would screw over the most gamblers and experts and definitely go against the single worst gamble you know. I feel like a lot of people are going to be on Houston as the chase bet minus three on Monday night. Then last but least, the law of Lombardi, bad offensive lines don't travel. Houston, you qualify for this one. On top of this, the C. J. Stroud stuff. I love this Stewards pick. I wish it was three and a half. I don't mind getting the three. I feel like they could lose and still cover because We're going to have the War of 1816 or the War of 1715 or whatever we get. House, what do you think about Metcalf, 15 to one, most receiving yards, round one? Why not? 15 to one. Why not throw a dart? Most receiving yards. Why not? Nobody has more than them.

Yeah, I I understand. Throw a dart. Go ahead. What's to keep it?

What do you think of the under in this game, by the way? The old Anthony de Bundo, Houston under.

It's 38 and a half. I mean, it's literally right there, isn't it?

It feels like a teaser for me on Monday, bringing the Steelers up to plus seven and a half, bringing that under up even more. I don't think this game gets to 40 points. I don't see it.

I can't get past how emotional the Steelers were after they beat Baltimore. Like, those guys, this is the absolute peak of recency bias out of me. But Cam Hayward, Rodgers, they were pouring it out for each other out there.

That's a manifesto rule, though. The team that was too excited after in the previous week.

No, I don't think they weren't too excited. They clenched their playoff spot. After on the precipice of missing, they clenched it. Those are all a bunch of vets, too.

Are we going to see the Hayward Brothers nonsense again this week? Yes.

I hated that last week so much. We are definitely going to see it.

The worst.

I actually think that these guys are related is probably my least favorite media storyline that they feel obligated to hammer home. We get it. T. J. Watton, J. J. Watter brothers.

Anyone else on the team could have been pushing the brother. Anyone else on that team could have been pushing him. Them bringing in Cam to do that was just to make a storyline.

Yeah. I tried to avoid it, but now you've brought it up, and now we've fallen prey.

We did it.

To their tricks. All right. Today's Ringer 107 brought to you by FanDuel. It is round one of the playoffs. We have Five Ringer 107 picks. We just spent over seven hours talking about them. First one, packers minus 1. 5 points. In Chicago, we laid out all the reasons. We think the packers can move the ball. We think the bears, their luck, is about to run out. Next one, favorite bet on the board, jaguars plus one and a half at home against Buffalo. We were all aligned. We can't believe that the Jags aren't favorite in this game, that nobody believes in us. We laid that all the case out. Next one, Monday night, our third and final favorite game, Steelers plus three. The Voodoo Steelers going against a Houston team that has a lot of tiny playoff manifesto things going against it. Steelers plus three. We're also open the door for the Sears to lose by two or one, which is very possible. Anything's in play in this game. Eagles minus four and a half is our next one. We talked long and hard about this. It feels like the Niners have just passed the point of no return with injuries.

Then last but not least, House beg me not to do this. Billy urge me to get weird. Pat's money line parlayed with the over of 36. 5 points. That's our fifth pick. Then for posterity, just for the quest to go undefeated, Panthers plus 10. 5 and Pats minus 3. 5, just to have those on the record. House, your favorite of those picks?

Jackson though.

Billy, your favorite of those picks?

I think the Panthers, which is an unofficial pick, is my favorite of the picks. But of the official picks, I'd say Stealers. I think the Stealers- Should we throw the Panthers in there and dump the Pats?

No, don't No.

That's how I get too crazy.

Greg Olson wearing a jersey in the booth?

Oh, yeah. I forgot about Greg Olson back there.

Panthers, unofficial. And those are the Ringer 107 picks for round one. What do you call the playhouse, Billy? Are you a round one guy? Are you a wild card round guy? Where have you landed?

Are we still in the air of Super Wild Card Weekend? Because there was Wild Card Weekend and then there was- That's next weekend. No, next weekend is already the divisional Oh, next week since, yeah. Yeah. So there was like, at one point, we were referring to it as Super Wild Card Weekend, but I think now it's back to just Wild Card Weekend.

How about round one and round two? That sounds pretty good. That's two on the follow. And then the NFC title game, NFC title game?

No, you need a name.

Catch your name. Wild Card helps me remember, oh, yes, there are shitty teams playing this weekend. Now I remember why.

This is like the weekend I could still go run errands, and it's not really going to impact things because those Saturday games aren't going to matter all that much. I don't have to give up my entire weekend for wild card. I'll catch up with what happened.

How else did Billy do enough to come back next week?

It's between him and Schrager. I mean, let him- That's Schrager, man.

You know what? I didn't see him today. He wasn't available.

I love the dude. That was an amazing performance. All those story lines were magnificent.

Today's Ringer 107 brought to you by FanDuel odd subject to change. Before we go, Billy, are you worried about Bam out of bio at all? What's going on with him? I Why doesn't he look like a franchise guy anymore?

He's always had that situation, right? Where they wouldn't want to trade him to get anyone because they're like, this is our guy, this is our franchise guy. But he can't carry the team far enough. And then the heat started out and they were looking great. I can't figure out the heat or Bam or their love obsession with keeping Bam and not improving the team. Because to make the heat better, you can't win with Hero and Bam, just them, right?

No.

And Norman Powell is fine.

You should train Hero. You should try to be moving Hero, trying to upgrade. Keep Norman Powell. I don't know. What would you do, house?

I'm just going to tip my cap to the podfather. We've been on here for 2 hours in 20 minutes, and we're about to go, and you say, Hey, Billy, what about family?

What about family? I just was there.

I'm just curious.

I'm not Ben.

I'm just curious.

We're fucking 40 games.

You know what? Bare 40 games. Go ahead. What's going on in his house is hungry.

Give us a shit about the... I am hungry. House is hungry.

When we would drive from Vegas that way- Let's talk about the Miami heat.

We have a Miami heat expert right here. We have a Miami heat expert right here. Nfl playoff. Let's talk about the Miami heat.

When we would drive to Vegas, and House would just be calling out fast food. It's like, Jack in the box. Armies.

How about Bam out of bio? What the fuck?

Now we have NFL pics and we have some thoughts on Bam out of bio.

That no one wanted.

We're ready to go. Are you doing College Football Tailgate?

Yeah, College Football. We're having a Friday edition of College Football Tailgate to recap the semifinals game. So join us. Can we in?

Yes. Friday night.

And then House Fairway rolling starts on Netflix as part of our batch of sports pods going to Netflix.

Yeah, we have our debut show next week. Netflix will be on Netflix in two weeks, I think.

Okay, great. All right. House, thank you.

Appreciate you as always.

Thank you.

Good to see you guys. Thank you, Billy.

All right. Thanks to House and Billy. Thanks to Gehow and Eduardo as well. Rewatchables, it's up. Mailbag last week. What Lies Beneath coming Tuesday this week. And tickets available starting on Friday for the LiveBS podcast show at the Wiltern in Los Angeles on February 11th. Have a great weekend. Enjoy all the sports. Go Pats, go Celtics. Two big Celtic game this week, too. I hope this is a great Austin for my Saturday. I will see you on Sunday.

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