Transcript of Week 16 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're ready for eight days of football out of 10. Oh, my gosh. I'm Greg Rosenthal in the Chris Westley podcast studio. I'm with my friend Cynthia Freeland. And yes, it's your favorite time of the week, Cynthia. We're going to make three pics against the spread.

Well, today we're matching. Yes. So we got our producer pointed to us, so I had to point it out to you. But I'm wearing the hat because I haven't been to makeup yet, and I have a big zit on my front.

Oh, you look beautiful. But I like the look with the hat.

It's a fun holiday hat. It's a little soft. It works, I think. I feel like it really adds to the ambiance.

Yes. Most of our listeners are as podcast listeners, but the YouTube numbers are growing. We appreciate you all. I saw the subscribers went over 50K. Let's get up Numbers game. We're at 10K at Numbers game. Let's Come on, numbers game. Get that going. Everyone follow Cynthia there. Let's throw the records up from last week. Another successful week of Man versus Machine. We both went two and one. I'm at 26 and 19 on the season. You're a couple of games back, but you're well in the green, and so we're doing well. Let's keep it rolling. Let's have you go with the first pick.

All right. Right now, what are you seeing as the line for the Cincinnati bangles against the Browns?

Seven and a half was the last time I saw it.

I think even Even though I hate that number, seven and a half, just because it feels like a little bit of disaster is annoying, I still really like it. I'm going to go with the Cincinnati bangles. I have a nine-point win, and my model is pretty conservative. If I'm going that high, we just saw reports, Miles Garrett, not a fully healthy. That's also good news, if you're on my side of this equation, so I'm going with that one first. How do you feel about that one?

I like that. It scares me. I don't I don't know what the line would be with Jamis, but the fact that it's Dorian Thompson-Robinson, DTR, makes you feel a lot better about it. I would imagine, is Jamis really worth two or three points over DTR? That's crazy because to me, actually, he would be. I'm good with the bangles. Now, if it was bangles minus 6, even, and Jameis was involved, I wouldn't want to get involved just because of the variance factor.

Well, I've also got possibly no David and Joku, so it does make it a lot easier to defend Jerry Judy if he's pretty much the only pass catching threat. That's the other thing, too. Potentially no David and Joku, some banged up defensive points. I think Joe Burrow wants to... He's out there trying to prove something. Again, I don't love that number as a number, seven and a half. The hook.I'm in.

That at times they've had some trouble with. And yet, I do think it matters when you get this late in the season and you have one team that is playing for something. The Bengals have a very realistic chance to be alive in the play-off hunt in week 18. Now, whether they could get everything to work out for them, we'll see. But if they can win this week, they get Denver next week, and they could basically stay alive by beating Denver, and then you get to week 18, and you neverI know. I like that. They have a pulse.

I just...

Yeah. Okay. One of my favorite pics of the year. Year? Right here. Okay. It's your lion's minus six and a half. Oh, dear God. There's so much concern about what they don't have. Oh, they don't have this. They don't have that.

Well, yeah, they have 16 players on IR.

A lot. You know when I'm concerned about that? Winning. When they play other good teams. Correct. The Detroit Lions are one of the best regular season teams I've ever seen. Now, they're not exactly that team anymore. The two losses they had last week weren't just regular players. Ali McNeil was the most valuable player on their defensive line that was still healthy, and Carlton Davis is really important for what they do. I worry about that a little more longer term, but let's not get carried away. Ali McNeil and Carlton Davis are not moving the line X amount of points. Great teams respond. They're a great team. They're playing a dead bears team. Thomas Brown, unfortunately, got put as a head coach where he would be better off probably just calling the plays. There's too much going on. I've watched the bears offense the last couple of weeks, and the progress that they were making under Thomas Brown seems to have backslid. Caleb Williams is a little lost. I actually think the lines have enough up front still to be very competitive, defensiveLions will be in this game, and they're plenty healthy on offense. I missed David Montgomery, but in this game, it's not going to matter that much.

I would say my over-under for lions offensive points in this game is about 37. They are going to want to shut everyone up. They're going to have the best pregame speech. They're going to be as focused as possible after that loss. I just think we get the very best of the lion. I honestly would... We can't do this on this show, but if you're out there and you're actually...In the world, doing things.Doing things. You can make alternate lines on your own. I would jack this thing up and see if we can go way over it, because that's how I feel about this lions team. I'm going about 37 to 17. That feels great to me.

Well, your lips to whoever's inMarge's ears, and I hope that plays out like that. I am not putting them as one of my favorites.Okay.I do have that happening.It.

Has nothing to do with you being an Alliance fan. This was really the one when I was like, Okay, who are the ones? I was like, Oh, bears? That's going to be minus 10, right? It's like, No, it's minus six and a half. I love that. I think that's a great number.

That's an incredible one. Okay, I'm sticking to my theme. I have a theme this week, and that's teams that are hungry for a playoff against teams that maybe aren't. Got it? I love it. Well, this team is already in the playoff. They've already won their division, but they're looking at the one seat. That's the Bills. They are 14.

Wow.

Was it 14 or 14? They're 14. Okay. I don't care. They're playing at home. They're playing the Patriots. I'm not saying that I don't think the Patriots are good. I'm saying I think the Bills They need to figure some things out with their passing game. And I think this will be the game that they're not going to experiment, but I think they're going to experiment. I don't think this is going to be a Josh Allen rushes for 60 yards type of game. I think this is going to be a game where they hand the ball off to James Cook, but they get in the end zone. They pass the ball to the intermediate level, but they get in the end zone. I know that Christian Gonzales is really good. Don't get me wrong. I love him. But there's other places where you can pass the ball that aren't Christian Gonzales. And this is a situation where if these bills want to potentially make up the... If there's any way that the Texans knock off the Chiefs, which I don't have happening, but we already know that result by the time the bills play, then I would expect big time by the bills.

Wow. 14. That's a lot.

Sometimes I'm only going by the math, man.

Yeah, I love it. The Bills offense. If I said 37 was about my over and under for lions' points, that's about the same for Bills against the Patriots. The risk would be Jake May is playing at a high level. He's great. Not getting a lot of help, but could they get some late garbage time.

But they need to put some stuff on defense, too, and this is at home.

I like it. I mean, I don't love it, but I like it. I like it because you did it, and I like whatever you do, Cynthia. Even if you're going against my Patriots, I see what you did.

Not going against your Patriots.

That's good for them. I have three other games written down, and I'm struggling with which to pick. But over the course of this season, Fading the Cowboys has been a winning proposition for us. That's been the move. Now, lately, I haven't been for the most part, and their defense is really playing better since Michael Parsons is back. But I think the Bucks indoors, I know it's in Dallas, but I'm not giving them much credit for home field advantage. Twelve and a half points. I'd rather have a climate-controlled environment for an elite offense, and that's what the Bucaneers are with Liam Cohen and Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans going for a thousand yards and the way their offensive line is playing. I think this is the rare team that the Tampa Bay Bucaneers, who are favored by four in Dallas, that they can really slow down what the Cowboys do well. The numbers would say the Cowboys are actually one of, if not the best pass rush team in the league since Parsons got back. They are that good, and that's It's helped them in games. It's helped them win last week against Carolina. But Tampa's offensive line is a story that hasn't been talked about that much.

Getta Key and Worfs are as good as a tackle duo as there is. They might have some Pro bowlers on the inside with Cody Mach. They're really good. I think they can mitigate the one thing Dallas is special about. Cowboys have figured some things out offensively. It's why I was saying I'm struggling between these three. I don't love, love any of my other picks, but I do think Tampa Bay minus for When I go to bed Saturday night, I'm feeling easy that that's one of my three man versus model picks. You might have to stay up late on the East Coast to watch this because I don't think it's going to be some blowout, but I think they win by seven or eight, and they get it done for me and get me another win. All right, give me your third.

I like that one a ton, but-Oh, you could do that as well if you want. No, it's okay. I think we should. I don't love Love It, but I like it a lot.

You're trying to catch up, I see.

Yeah. In an interesting turn of events, I know that it's always divisional games, got to throw out the record, but this could potentially be the Eagles's last away game until the freaking Super Bowl. Think about it. If they go into whateverFedex Field? Where is it? Landover? Where is it?It's.

In Landover, Maryland.Thank you.

Landover, Maryland, because I know there was a big fight over. They wanted to move it back to DC. Elon Musk said no. It's not going to say it. But I was reading about that earlier. But ultimately, they go into Andover, they take the win by at least three and a half points, by more than three and a half points, and then they don't play on the road again until a potential Super Bowl. That is bananas.

That is scary for the rest of the NFC. They are a team that knows how to win games like they won against the commanders the first time around. Now, if you remember, Jalen Hertz was quite sloppy in that game.

In the beginning of the game was not great.

Then by the end, just the physical dominance that they had on both lines just overwhelmed it, and they didn't even need great quarterback play. They have such a huge margin for error that I don't... Am I allowed to join you as my third pick? You will see I had two more picked written down.

I like it. I just wanted to get another game in.

I just feel comfortable with that. Not amazing because I think that line three and a half, everyone loves the way that the Eagles have looked. It looks too easy. Yet, show me the good game that the commanders have played against quality competition. Actually, show me the great Commander's game that they've played, period, over the last couple of months. Okay, it was the Titans. They did what they needed to But I don't know if I think that was a great team. The fact that they stopped moving the ball against the Saints in the Superdome and let them back in that game coming off of their buy, I just don't think they're ready for this moment. Quietly, they've had some injuries on the offensive side that I think hurt them, Noah Brown and Austin Echler being-And Zack Ertz may not play. It sounds like Zack Ertz is probably out for this game. So I'm going to go with you. Philly minus three and a half. I only have one Gregstra, as our producer, Hytham, would say this week. The Greg Strez did well the last couple of times they did him. I do like the Giants plus eight and a half in Atlanta.

It was actually my number two pick until I looked at the injury report. They're not going to have Burns or O'Kareke in this game, it appears. They haven't been at practice this week. If those guys get healthy, I actually like that one better than Philadelphia. But as of this taping, they're not at practice, and that's just too much. They're already so on the defensive side of the ball, and now you're taking away two of their best three remaining players. I hate taking a Falcons team with a rookie quarterback. Eight and a half is just so much. It seems ridiculous to me. If I I have to choose a side. I'm still on the Giants, but it's just not one of my three favorite picks of the week. I jumped just over to your side. I'm sorry for doing that and taking your eagles fine, but that is how I feel.

You're the one who has the box with the extra, so that means it's fine.

When I was talking about sleeping at night, When I go to sleep at night on Saturday, if I know Burns and O'Kareake aren't there on top of all the other problems that the Giants have, I just like, I don't want to bother with it. Although I do think they'll probably cover eight and a half with Drew Lock. I like Lock being in there better than DeVito.

Yeah, but I also think if Pennex surprises them with some stuff, it could be nine points. You know what I'm saying? I'm not saying it'll be some crazy last minute. They're trying some things at the end instead of a game He's trying to do a two-minute drill in the middle of the second half to try to learn some stuff. I don't understand this move necessarily. You were still a playoff contender. Oh, I love the move. I don't hate the move, but I guess I just don't quite... Why not put him in there a couple of times for a few change of pace drives, like the stealers do with Justin Fields, as opposed to full tilt being like, You down, you up. And he's a lefty versus a righty. That stuff all matters.

Just because Kirk gave him no choice in my mind. Last week was the week that he just played like a guy with zero confidence that he was almost begging to be taken out. I'm not locked into this game because I think Pennex brings some real variants that you could tell me that they win by 25. That's what I'm saying, variants. That they win by 25. That wouldn't totally shock me because they are a better team. Their defense has been playing better. They could blow him out. But because of the variance, he's a rookie quarterback, and they're not that great a team either. They could lose the game outright. I just ultimately didn't want to go there on this one.

Giants, please listen to me. Don't win this game.

Okay. Yeah, you're right. Don't win. Get that one pick because you know what the-Don't win this game. Oh, hell. Let's go for another Greg's draft. I'm going to take the Raiders 2 minus 1 just in your support because the Raiders, they're going to help you out, Giants. They're going to mess up this draft pick, and they're going to beat the Jaguars. That is so Raiders to win. Because they're playing so hard for Antonio Piers. Every week, it's a very competitive, spirited team. I don't know if the Jags are there.

I love AP, but an AP former giant. There we go. Yeah. He can help out his own team. Don't win the game.

Numbers game is the...

Youtube show.

The channel, the show, game day view. It's the other show. On NFL Network, where we'll be picking all the games. You can catch that, too, on YouTube. The NFL feed sends it out as Week 16 Picks, I believe. Whatever that is, look for it. Enjoy your family. Like I said, we got eight days of NFL action out of 10. That is a wild stretch.

Let's go.

Start stretching. We got a lot of work to do.

A lot of work to do. Start from the old pencil.

When Cynthia is burying my Patriot, two TD underdogs on the road in Week 16, that's when you know football is back because they're done.