Transcript of Week 15 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to NFL daily, where sometimes our computer model breaks our heart. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesseling podcast studio with my friend, Cynthia Freeland. Do you get what I'm getting at here?

Yes. I know exactly what you're getting at.

Right off the bat. I I've looked at your computer model for the week. Yeah. This is the the show every week where we make 3 picks against the spread. I hope it's not 1 of your 3 picks against the spread.

Not.

But you do pick every game. The model picks every game against the spread.

That's right.

And I saw that your model not only takes the Buffalo Bills to cover against your Detroit Lions, You have the Bills winning outright in the game of the year.

Yeah. I don't really have a lot to say about that other than I hate it. I hate myself. It makes me makes me crazy. I mean, I guess, on some level, then I don't lose in this game, but I also don't win.

You know what I'm saying?

No. You win if the Lions win. I think and I think you lose if the Lions lose, knowing you. You don't really care that your model gets something wrong.

To be fair, when I look at the like, I pick it and it and it's based on a whole bunch of stats. And sometimes I'm like, what on earth is

So this is What happens? This is kind of the nightmare with AI. The the computers have taken over. Like, they are they are sentient. The fact that they're picking the Bills over the lines actually, what are the kind of the the underlying reasons?

Because I am quite surprised by that that on the road, your model looking at all the numbers has the Bills as a better team. Because by a lot of numbers, the Lions are 1 of the best teams we've ever seen. So this is not gonna be either 1 of our 3 picks, but it is such a fascinating game. I am curious, like, are there any specific underlying reasons why you got the Bills winning?

Well, number 1, and first and foremost, the injury report for the Lions defense. I mean, when you have the 2019 Pro Bowl team playing, linebacker, things get a little dicey when you're facing Josh Allen. Yeah. That's the first reason. And even if they get some of their defensive linemen back, that's still a bad part of the defense to be banged up in.

And those are guys I mean, Alex Anzalone is not coming through that door. He's not

Linebackers will not be healthy this week. So that that's

a good point. That. And I don't know about as we sit here right now, we don't have a confirmation that other guys like Zac Paschal who else we're talking about? Alim McNeil. We don't know.

Maybe they're practicing.

Was Enrique.

He I think we don't think he's on Enrique is playing. Right? And then is Taylor Decker gonna be back?

Looks like it. Full practice. Yes.

Taylor fan. All the crossies.

Okay. So the linebacker position Yeah. Is a big But

the but but the reality is is the things that the Lions like to do, Josh Allen is really great at. The Lions play a lot of man. Guess what Josh Allen does to it? Mhmm. 18 touchdowns, 3 interceptions.

The Lions don't get a lot of pressure. Well, you could argue that the Bills could be tired based on the track meet they played with the Rams last week. They were in hurry up, basically, all of the second half. That's a lot of snaps. I mean, they did only play 54 total snaps.

That's about normal for them. But they were all hurry up snaps. That's wild. However, the lines aren't bringing a lot of pressure. They're still having their leading sack guy be Aidan Hutchinson, who hasn't played in, like, a bajillion weeks.

So the fact is is that's the areas where things kinda deplete if you're talking about fatigue. I don't know. That's that's where the model Okay. That's where the model stands.

Bill's sneaky not that good at pressuring the quarterback either, which would worry me for a Bills fan heading into this game. I like offense. I like a lot of points. I like Agreed. The over.

I don't have a hot, you know, strong feeling, but I am just not gonna pick against the Lions this year, certainly.

Wanna pick against you think I want to pick

against the But that is not 1 of my 3 picks. No. This week.

This week.

Let let's look at the standings from last week. We got back on the winning track. Both, you and I went 2 and 1.

Alright.

You're 2 games back on the season, but we're we're both clear over 500.

Yep.

And, we're feeling good. Let's go to our picks this week. I have to admit, and I don't know why this happened. For the first time all season, I struggled to get to 3 games. I just didn't.

Usually, I have 1 just screaming at me. Gotta take them. Love them. And then I have extras, and I, you know, I I just I have so many. This 1, I struggled to get past, like, 1 or 2, but I'm gonna have you start.

Okay. Well, I'm gonna go ahead and take Denver. And I think Denver what you looking at me, kinda No. No. That was that 1 of yours?

No. Oh, good. Well, that's kinda good. There are 4 point favorites at home. I like that number compared to some of the other numbers this week.

Of course, I'd like a narrower gap. 3 would be more fun, but whatever. 4 will will be fine in this matchup. I think what I'm looking at from Indianapolis is a the things that this Denver defense is absolutely exceptional at, they're really, really strong against on the defensive side. And even if Riley Moss doesn't play and he's a really big fan, like, he's been a really excellent part of that secondary, it kind of doesn't matter because I'm not so worried about what Anthony Richardson's going to do on the types of passes that don't go to Patrick Sertan or they can't figure out, plus they've had a week of rest.

I think the middle of that defense is terrifying. That's where Anthony Richardson likes to run. It just don't think this is a great matchup for what we've seen from AR.

Okay. I like it. I gotta be better about a poker face. So Yeah. Colleen Wolf has has talked about this, that it was an adjustment period when she used to do the Around the NFL podcast, and then she realized that's just rest resting Greg face.

Got it.

You know, it's just, I I struggle to hide my emotion. I look like I'm mad at the person or something. In this particular case, the reason why I maybe made a face, it's not you know, you never know what it is. Right. It's not about you or your pick.

It actually is because I'm like, I agree with you. I have the Broncos covering. They're not 1 of my 3. It's more that I've made the Broncos fan base so angry this week by not having Bo Nix in my top 5 offensive rookie of the year.

Oh, I I did see that.

It's just it's just go it just keeps going. I don't have my mentions on on Twitter anyways. I'm not really checking in too often. They're more of a blue sky guy these days, but there is a human part of me that would like to see them lose this game.

Because they've been mean to you?

Yes.

Got it. Well, that that's that's as long as it's not as long as that look isn't directed at me or my math, we're good.

And, yeah, we do a show together that everyone can check out on YouTube as well where it'll say week 15 picks from the NFL, but it's on NFL Network NFL game debut. And I have the Broncos covering as well, because I just think they're a better team on both sides of the ball. Got it. If you tell me that your team is gonna protect your quarterback better and it's gonna get more pass rush than the other team on a, like, on a every week basis and almost certainly in this matchup, then, like, I'm just gonna take you to win probably. And they're they're better coached, I believe, overall.

Sean Payton versus Gus Bradley, not that even.

Yeah. But also, I thought it was very smart that they re signed Garrett Bowles right now. Just so everyone's clear, I've already started some draft prep. This is not a good offensive line draft class. There are, like, 2 that are day 1 starters.

After that, slim pickings.

Mhmm. And Good note.

That is a smart thing for them to lock down right now, so they have flexibility come draft time. They don't need to reach to try to because some of there's a ton of teams that need offensive line help. Patrick Mahomes.

New England Patriots.

A lot of teams. A lot of teams.

They signed Quinn Miner as their guard before of the season. That's what Sean Payton

led me to spend.

Spend spend spend big. Look at Cynthia. She's such a helpful pro. She's putting some news into the program. Hello.

But no 1 that would not have been there. Yes. Garrett Bowles getting a nice new deal from the Broncos. Okay. The the 1 pick that I did like right away was Vikings minus 6.5.

I'm on I'm on that with you. All over that with you.

When I look at division games, especially when they're playing twice in a short period

Yep.

Maybe this is stupid. There's probably no scientific backing to that this at all, but I really feel it in my bones. And and the 2 teams are not even, and we can say, just look at the records, they're not even. In 1 of those 2 games, in a division matchup, especially when they're playing close, usually, the bad team is gonna it's gonna cover. It might win the game outright, and it evens out.

And then in the other 1, what you expect is gonna happen is gonna happen. So I always pick games off of that. It was why, partly, I I had the Steelers covering last week. I felt great about that number against the Browns. I was like, they just lost to the Browns.

Good coaching staff. Now they're going back home, are not gonna lose 2 straight to the Browns. I actually think they'll they'll play a very solid game, win comfortably. That was 1 of my 22 wins last week. Very similar situation.

The Vikings and the Bears just played. It was a 3 point game. It was in Chicago. It was probably Caleb Williams' best games of the season. Then you look at the defense for the Bears, which has been getting worse and worse and worse all year, And then you take Matt Eberflus out of the picture.

I'm just saying, last week, they looked as bad as they have ever looked. Yeah. And, frankly, they weren't that good before. They're not getting a consistent pass rush, just personnel wise, up front, and I think the Vikings will be able to protect Sam Darnold. And, yes, I actually think they miss Matt Eberflus on the defensive side because now you got Thomas Brown's been promoted so many times.

You're running out of, you know, offensive guys to run everything. And now on the defensive side, he took out Eberflus. You've been picking up these guys for Eberflus' defense for years. I just think the Vikings are humming right now, and I would put their over under on their points at about 31. And I just don't think that Bears can keep up in a in a shootout like that.

I'm with you. You need to teach Thomas Brown about the poker face, because I watch his pressers and he's just mad.

Oh, really? Like, he's big

mad in them. And I'm like, I don't know what to tell you. What did you think you were getting into? Plus, Deandre Swift has been on the injury report. It's not like they're getting good push from their run game anyways.

So yikes. This is a team that has allowed them, like, tons of sacks, all of the unblocked pressures, and the Vikings bring the heat.

So And and they did a pretty good job against them a couple weeks ago, but that

is 4 50 fours. I know it's the most sacks, but I think it's 54. I

That's that's a bigger reason why I like the Vikings better, because this coaching staff who has all the stability in the world. Yeah. Okay. What did they do to us last time? Let's fix it.

They will fix it. Alright. What's your second pick?

I know you're on the other side of this 1. Let's be spicy. Tampa, baby.

Okay. Let's do it. Tampa. Now Not only am I on the other side in terms of I just disagree. We're gonna go head to head for Whoo.

For van versus model. This is gonna be 1 of my picks.

Wow. Okay. So it's 3 points.

Yes.

That's what I'm seeing. Is that what you're seeing? Anyways, it's 2a half. Okay. 2a half.

3. Whatever. That's that's okay. I like it both. When I'm looking at the opportunity here, I'm very worried about the injury report for the Chargers.

I'm not sure if Ladd McConkie is good to go. JK Dobbins. Is Justin Herbert okay? I mean, he maybe didn't go off in an air cast like other people, but he does not look like he was completely healthy. That scares me.

That scares me in large part, because when I'm looking at Baker Mayfield's ability to withstand pressure, his o line has really been helping him out. Past couple of weeks, he's been, like, not even hit at a high rate at all, and that's been very helpful. Plus, they are trying to get Mike Evans that 1,000 yard mark for the 11th straight season. He's 410 yards away. Just needs a measly 102.5 per game.

Okay. But, ultimately, I think that is where 1 of the mismatches lies. And I'm worried about the running backs, but they still have Rashad White even if Bucky Irving isn't good to go. And they've been getting a lot of good push on the inside where recently has been a vulnerable spot of the the Chargers defense.

Yeah. Those are all good arguments. The Chargers offensive line, a little weak on the inside too. And you could see Vitavaeh and Kalijah Kansy having a good performance.

Names like Vitavea, Khaleja Canty. That's that's fun.

You do make me a little worried about the Herbert factor. Now, obviously, if Herbert's status is at all in question, I'm I'm flying away from this pick up.

I thought you were gonna say something very non PG there for a second. I'm flying away.

I'm getting out of here, and I'll have to come up with a backup pick. But I assume he finished that game out. He's Justin Herbert. I assume he's gonna play.

I assume he's gonna play, but does that mean he's okay?

That is a worry. He has an ankle injury. He played through it well in Kansas City. Won't be as cold in this situation. He will be in the But maybe the coldness.

Confines of SoFi.

But maybe the coldness was like ice. You know? Kept it kept it the swelling under control.

I just think the chargers are a better team overall. I think they're better coached. Sorry, Todd Bowles. I think their quarterback is such a difference maker compared to Baker. I feel like Baker's been getting away with it.

Of course he has.

The last month of the season, he can't keep getting away with it. It bad decisions, interceptions, fumbles, everyone has this idea because you look in at the total yards and touchdowns for the season that he's having this great season. He's having now about the season that you would expect. But if you look at just the last month, which has been against bad defenses for the most part, he's not seeing the field well. He's not making good decisions.

And so that alone against this chargers defense, coming off a loss, and there is something just emotionally when I saw Jim Harbaugh on the podium after that game, and he was so mad and so miserable, and he was just talking about how he can't wait for them to respond. I was like, oh, they're gonna win next week, so that's also part of it. I'm stupid. And Oh, no. That's not stupid.

The reports are that there's a good chance Ladd McConkie comes back. It sounds like he's gonna be practicing. He is integral to what they are trying to do. But I do like how they were able to run the ball late against Kansas City. So, ultimately, I'm just doing it on recent form.

Even though I've been on the Bucks all year, I picked them to win the NFC South. Still think they still will.

Of course.

I actually think they're playing worrisome football on the offensive side lately. So I like the chargers in this game just on recent form.

Okay.

We're we're up against each other. I don't know if we've done that all year, because we've been trying to give our

Yeah. But I our listeners I feel like next week, you're gonna be like, yeah. But he was hurt. Like, I mean, I I don't know. That's like, I'm No.

I just just want Making

making this decision, minus 2a half is what I see.

K.

I I'm making it no matter what happens. Now if he misses the game entirely, I'm I'm giving the backup pick. But yeah. Perfect. Right now, I like it.

I'm going Washington, as my dad says Okay. By a touchdown.

Yeah. I like that.

Wash. Over New Orleans.

Yeah. That's pretty

good. New Orleans. I have a 10 point win for them. Why? The the I like my models don't love double digits.

It's just very hard to do in terms of how models work. And so when you get I have 2 double digit wins this week by 2 different teams, which is that's wild. Minnesota's the other 1, just so you know. But, I'm looking at the opportunity for Washington against New Orleans with who's playing? Let's make a list.

I mean, that's probably easier. The the there's just a lot of a lot of missing pieces on this New Orleans offense and defense. So Marshawn Lattimore, revenge. Just kidding. Yeah.

No. That's a good 1.

Like, he's probably gonna play, which increases the opportunity to stop the pass. Guy leads the league and passes defense since he became an NFL pro since 2017. So that's great. But, you know, I I also think that, you know, Jaden Daniels now has a moment to regroup after the start of the season. You know, they had their buy there.

Kliff Kingsbury, people are like, oh, does this numbers all go down. Well, this is a defense where it doesn't matter if Klicks Kliff Kingsbury's tendencies are that he kind of shows everyone everything too early. I don't think this defense has enough juice to kind of stop the multiple threats that are Terry McLaren, Brian Robinson, who presumably fully healthy now. So Yeah. You know, those are the 2 reasons.

I like that. I I agree with you on that 1. I do think that's a lot of more revenge game. It's kinda funny though. Like, who does he even cover on on the Saints?

Like, Kevin Austin. Like, it's crazy how deep into their depth chart there are. Marcus Valdes, Scantlin, certainly, although that might not be the best, you know, just pure a pure burner against a guy coming off a hamstring injury. But they're coming off the buy. They're rested.

They're more talented. And the most important thing is, yeah, it's either Jake Haynor or Spencer Rattler at quarterback. They're competing supposedly at practice, which is never a great sign before a regular season game. So that 1 makes all the sense in the world to me. In fact, that'll be my backup pick.

So if if you actually care about these things

I do.

And since we do keep track of the records, if Justin Herbert does not play, I'll go just go with you on Great. Washington minus 7. My final pick, which I'm guessing is your 3rd double digit score of the week is I went through all the games. I just didn't have a lot of hot, like, picks against the spread. Like, Bengals is okay in Tennessee.

I like the Ravens minus 16 and a half where wherever they're at. Like, I kinda love it. It's against Tommy DeVito, who was the quarterback the last time there was a spread this high in the NFL. On game day view, I with a straight face, I was like, how is this game gonna go? I put Ravens 44, Giants 6.

So that's the type of game I think it is. I think the Ravens needed that buy worse than any team in the entire NFL. They were just tired. They had been in big game after big game after big game after big game. Why are you laughing?

4 to 4 to 6?

Yes. I mean,

it is silly to take a minus 16a half, but that's that's why they made the numbers so high. Right. The the reason I really wanna take it, though, is I really think their defense was coming around before the before the bye. So you got an improved pass rush and an improved secondary against Tommy DeVito, and there's no 1 healthy on this offensive line. Their backups is backups is backups are hurt.

Let's go Ravens 44 to 6. They cover 60a half easy.

I have to see the total here is 43.

Right. Sure. I love I love the over for that.

Love the over. Love it.

The Ravens are 1 of the best offenses I've ever seen, and it's against this isn't 1 of the worst defenses I've ever seen. It's not even a bottom 5 defense this year. It's probably, like, 23rd. So it's 1 of the best offenses against a bad defense. And what I would say is the worst offense in the league right now against an improving defense, And it's a team that's rested and needs the win, wants the win.

The atmosphere is gonna be terrible in the Meadowlands. Like, it that it's gonna be Ravens fans and booing Giants fans. So I take it back. Forget about not liking picks this week, but I just talked myself into this. This was the 1 I had to search for, but now I like it a lot.

It's actually Perfect. It's actually the chargers you made me worried about, but I feel great about Ravens and Vikings.

I I mean, I I'm with you. I mean, I have a 13 point win for the Ravens.

I get it though. Your model, it's

Model the problem the problem when you model things is that it's very rare for a projection pregame to be that high. It just doesn't happen very often because, you know, teams will rest. Teams will like, maybe Derek Henry doesn't play in the second half. Like, there's just some things that happen when when teams get up big this late in the season that are at they they throw a little monkey wrench in there.

It they're gonna wanna get the MVP for Lamar Jackson.

I'm I'm not like

Rashad Bateman. And yet it happens all the time. For instance, like, I'm just looking at last week.

No. No. I'm not looking at the results. I'm looking at the like, you remember ahead of the games. Right?

Like, it's it's rare to have it's rare for me to have a 13 point win projected for anyone.

Right. My point is, like, there are a couple big time blowouts every week. Of course. 40 niners, Bears was won last week. In the end, Vikings would have covered a a 16 point spread against the Falcons.

You know, a couple weeks ago, it was harder to find. But, like, Commanders, Titans, that's a big time blowout. Like Sure. Bills, 40 niners. Sure.

These things happen, and I think this is where it's gonna happen There

you go.

This week. I like that. Cynthia, you've done it again.

You know, it's it's all you.

You are my friend. You are my friend.

Wait. Before we before we leave here

Yeah. How

do you feel about your old coach going down to UNC? Are you now Tar Heel Blue? Did you go buy some, like, Argyle Tar Heel Blue stuff? Are you, like, a Michael Jordan lover now?

I am excited about it just as a football fan. I wanted him out of the media and back on the sideline as almost as badly as he did. Because I got the sense he wasn't really putting his all into the media game, and I was a little disappointed by that. But he's born to be a coach. I actually had on my friend Ollie Connolly on the Thursday night football recap show.

We he talked about it because he had broken this Bella's story. And so it talked a lot about it there. And, I think it'll be cool. I think it'll be weird. And I just hope he is,

like Could you imagine?

Has enough good players that, as and has enough good offensive coaches that he can out scheme the hell out of, like, Dabo Sweeney and whoever the hell else is in the ACC. It'll be great. I I think he'll be good.

Can you imagine Bill going to, like, someone's house being, like, hello. Come play for my team.

I don't think he's gonna do a lot of that. You know, Dion Dion has set up this new model.

I get it, but like

Dion doesn't go to anyone's house either. They come to him.

That's what that's what they're gonna do. I would come to Bill too. But, like, can you even imagine if that were, like, a thing? You would, like, come to your house, like, thank you for having me. Do you wanna come?

Like, I can't imagine having an energy of, like, a double double squeeze. Like, we'll get you this, we'll get you that, and blah blah blah. Nope. I think Bill will be, like, do your job. Next man out.

Okay. So I I heard, a comparison of, like, there's multiple bills though. Right? Of course. There's the the bill that you see in front of the podium.

There's the bill as the coach. But then there's Nantucket bill, you know?

I've seen him.

And maybe you have? Uh-huh. Wow.

Kyle, my fiancee, his family lives in Nantucket in the summer.

That's a that's a podcast for another time. I wanna hear what Nantucket Bill is like.

Super nice. Nicest person.

Maybe you get a little bit of both. Because it's like it's college. It's not quite as hard. It's not quite as stressful as, the NFL. Maybe you get a little chiller, kinda

It's a great color.

Wearing his polos and

None of good job by UNC. None of us would would have been talking about North Carolina football, but for and now it's all I can read. Arthur Smith, this person Ben Johnson, boo boo. Like, does it how does this Tar Heel feel? How does that Tar Heel feel?

Like, a mate, good for them.

Lawrence Taylor, 1 of the greatest Bill Belichick players ever. Probably the greatest. Yes. Well, I guess there was 1 other guy. He went to Michigan.

Quarterback, but

That 1 went to Michigan.

You know, and he he was on offense. And Bill doesn't really care about offense. That's the 1 thing I'm a little worried about is that he finds the right He will.

Matt and Patricia.

Smart guys that are younger.

Matt and Patricia will come in there and do the offense just like he did for the Patriots for you last year.

I really will be a UNC fan. I wanna I wanna it to go well if I'm trying to get

a little bit of a feel.

I think this will be a happier, kinder bill. And anyone Can you imagine your doubles and

you're like, are you freaking kidding me? Like, are I've been wait waiting my whole life for this enough. Like, are you freaking kidding me?

How about how about if you're the coach of Duke? Who is the coach of Duke? It's no longer, David Cutliffe anymore.

No. I don't know who it is. I should

know this. This is great. It's Manny Diaz.

Oh. 0, okay.

Oh, Mario Cristobal. He's gonna be, like, facing sometime. This will be this will be a lot of fun. It's always fun with Cynthia. We will be back next week, and we will be back on Sunday.

Baby. There's no east. No buys. It's a big 50 No buys. Game recap show with Patrick.

Kevin Patrick coming at you, coming onto Oh. This show as well, and, of course, Nick Shook. Look. When when Bill Belichick

Is back in the saddle.

I I already said that on Thursday. Look. When we're going up against each other because we we want that title Yeah.

At the

end of the season, that's when you know football is best to be a Sunday.