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Transcript of 2024 Week 16 Preview

Around the NFL Podcast
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Transcription of 2024 Week 16 Preview from Around the NFL Podcast Podcast
00:00:04

Welcome to NFL daily, where it's feeling like week 18 week 16. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm here in the Chris Wesseling podcast studio with my friends, Patrick Claiborne and Steve Weiss, back from the road. Good to have you back, buddy.

00:00:19

Good to be back, man. You know, we got we had some interesting games. And you're looking at some of these spreads like, Wait. What?

00:00:24

Yeah. When I say that, it just it's got a December vibe this slate. It's a lot of 1 good team playing 1 bad team, and the 1 bad team just made a quarterback change that just makes it feel like where they're just kinda running out the string a little bit, but we have 3 weeks left. We don't have 1 week left.

00:00:41

It's It's it's it's the back end preseason right now.

00:00:44

Okay.

00:00:44

Yeah. We got some guys coming back. Glad to have Steve back because without you, we suffered a loss. Steve? Oh, no.

00:00:51

Our survivor has no loss for 5.

00:00:54

What'd you guys take?

00:00:55

Put put the music on. Yeah. We, we got a little over our skis. We got a little confident, overconfident. We took a team that not only have we not taken in survivor all year, that Patrick and I actually haven't picked to win a single game all year, thinking we were just hot.

00:01:09

For good reason.

00:01:10

The Carolina Panthers, and they did did not go for us. I apologize to Patrick who wanted to go Falcons, and I said I am not taking this Kirk Cousins team right now. Now Kirk did not look great No. But that would have kept us going, so I apologize.

00:01:26

No. Alright. We we lost we lost as a team, and and we didn't have Exactly. Dan Campbell says, you know, that he's not buying the whole injury thing. When you don't have 1 of your pieces and you only have 3 of them.

00:01:37

We needed you, Steve. That's alright.

00:01:39

You know, we made it as we made it this far without mushrooms growing underneath the pile.

00:01:42

You know what? And I should've I shouldn't have said, like, it's all 1 bad team, 1 good team. Because the early part of the slate Oh. The Saturday, like, teams that are playing on Christmas, but now they're just playing on Saturday before Christmas. Like, those those are pretty spicy.

00:01:56

That's very spicy. Real spicy.

00:01:58

We're we're doing the games chronologically this week. So we will be starting with the Saturday game that a lot of eyeballs are on the Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs who are favored by 3. We've seen their quarterback hop up and down and win Super Bowls, hop off the field on 1 leg, backup quarterbacks, get 4th downs. They can they keep it going over under 41a half? It's it's Noah Eagle, the baby bird, Todd Blackledge, and Catherine Tappan on the call, Greg, where we've seen this Texas defense be great.

00:02:28

Can the Texas offense do enough to knock off the Chiefs?

00:02:31

Okay. So that's an NBC production on a Saturday afternoon. That that is is interesting to me. This is all new new territory for us here, and it could be new territory for the Chiefs winning a game they need to win with Carson Wentz potentially at quarterback. When we came into the week, I was assuming it was Carson Wentz.

00:02:50

As we get closer to Saturday, and they're listing Patrick Mahomes full on the injury report, and he's moving around back there, and he's talking a pretty confident game. It's feeling more Steve like we will get Mahomes on on Saturday. We don't need to just guess the whole time, but what what

00:03:05

do you think? Yeah. I mean, my feeling is just, first off, if you watch the quarterback series on Netflix, you know, he does a lot of his training outside of the chief facility, and he's got a mister Miyagi who is taking care of his ankles. Remember, Patrick Mahomes sprains his ankles, like, every other week. And this

00:03:19

is a high ankle. Especially this time of year.

00:03:21

This is his non injured ankle, by the way. This is clever. He hurt his right ankle, but the camera showed them taping of the left ankle. So this is clever deception by Patrick right here. But I do think he plays.

00:03:33

But my thing is whether he's healthy or not, I still like Houston in this game. Wow.

00:03:37

I I

00:03:37

was at the I was at the Chiefs Browns game, last week, and their offense Chiefs offense, they can't protect. They had to move left guard Joe Tooney out to left tackle. That could change his week if DJ Humphries comes back. But just the fact that his overall protection, Patrick is not trusting what's going on in front of him. You're and the Cleveland Browns' defensive front is really good.

00:03:57

Right? So they were getting pressure on him. He was stepping up. The Browns were let him step up, and we know the tech has got guys who can do that. Patrick, when he had receivers open deep downfield, was overshooting him.

00:04:07

Something just did not look right, and this is why I I I like Houston in this game. I think they feel good about getting back in the win column last week and playing a pretty good overall ball game. I think this is a chance for Houston to kinda get his legs under it and and get us kind of excited again about them going into the playoffs. Yeah.

00:04:23

It's it's gonna be a defense that that bothers people, and Juwon Taylor, has been over there the whole time they've made the changes over on the other side. But now it's Danil Hunter, who's gonna be matched up against J'Juan Taylor for the majority of this game. And whether with with with Mahomes and and the ankle, whether it's, like, Mike Mancias, LeBron's trainer, or the guy that was saddled to Tom Brady for for such a long time. Oh, yeah. The secret to longevity isn't the the trainers.

00:04:51

It's Patrick Mahomes. It's Tom Brady. It's LeBron.

00:04:54

What about that dude that once spoke to us at the talent summit that he was Michael Jordan's guy? Or Kobe's guy?

00:05:00

Yeah. Both of them. Yeah. I know Tim. Turns out, the real key to those scenarios were Kobe being Bryant and Michael Jeffrey Jordan.

00:05:07

Okay.

00:05:08

Like, the the trainer stuff drives me nuts because we have Patrick doing all his workouts. And so it's, like, oh, he's on a bosu ball now. If you go out there, your ankle will be pliable like his. No. That's him.

00:05:19

Okay. He's I don't

00:05:20

know, man. Some of that stuff's a little different.

00:05:23

See, he's a believer. Patrick's a skeptic. Yeah.

00:05:26

If that was the case your whole roles. Everybody would just be hopping off the field at 1 play and then coming back and winning Super Bowls. Dude is different.

00:05:33

He he is different, but he's looking as mortal as I've ever seen him Yeah. Consistently as a pro. I I didn't get to watch that game until this morning, so it's really fresh in my mind. That's on the shortlist of the worst Patrick Mahomes games of all time.

00:05:51

I play

00:05:51

well. That's on the shortlist of just the worst Chiefs offensive performances, because I'm obviously not putting it all, on Patrick Mahomes. But they had 4.2 yards per play. They had 15 drives in that game, which is an a crazy amount of drive.

00:06:05

They had 6 takeaways.

00:06:06

You know how many drives included more than 2 first downs? 1.

00:06:10

Yeah.

00:06:10

Out of 15th many. And that was the game to me that was the most concerning of all the ones that we've seen. Not that they can't have better weeks and battery, but for them to sink that low, the the alarm bell should be off, and now you're going to put against the defense as you mentioned with the great edge rushers, but it's really sound on the back end too.

00:06:31

And and the second level.

00:06:32

And I know yeah. They they probably they're not gonna have Al Shayer back, but but Carson Harris is out there in Toto. Toto's They had a good game last week.

00:06:40

Defensive players no 1 talks about.

00:06:42

They are now actually up to number 1 on the season in defensive efficiency. That's according to DVOA. So I was thinking while watching the Chiefs Browns this morning. Man, now you put the Texans in this mix instead of the Browns who have given up a lot of big plays. Maybe that's why they were big play hunting.

00:06:59

Like, Mahomes went 3 for 13 on plus 10 throws, o for 6 deep. And I thought, oh, you're gonna, now you gotta go against the Texans. I I don't think the Texans are gonna be able to score either. It's crazy that we got Texans Chiefs on NBC, and you've these 2 great quarterbacks potentially. And I'm I'm taking the under, whatever that is.

00:07:17

This thing is gonna be 13 to 9. Neither of these teams are gonna score. I have no faith in the Texans offense either, so I definitely think that the Chiefs can win this game and probably will be picking them to win this game if Mahomes starts because I just I'm not gonna they're just gonna win another freaking ugly game. Yeah.

00:07:33

Like, excuse me.

00:07:33

Excuse me.

00:07:34

I mean, cumulatively, they do have a better offense than the Texans, but it's by 1 tenth of a point. They score 23.5 points a game. The Texans score 23.4 Yep. Points per game. And it's just in the way that the Texans have done it, especially late this season, like in that win against the Miami Dolphins, like these grind out drives where 3rd and sometimes 4th down CJ Stroup competing passes, where the Chiefs have had to grind things out too, but it feels more reliable.

00:08:01

Like, they scored that 21st point on that worthy run, and it's there's plenty of time to go in the Q3. Right. They don't sniff the end zone or close all again. Mm-mm. And so I just I'd I'd take the Texans in this game, not just because of the avalanche of everything and Patrick's ankle.

00:08:16

It's just 1 team, I believe, can consistently execute something on offense. I don't. And and the other deep

00:08:23

I don't. I actually think the Texans are in a worse in a worse situation offensively even than the Chiefs. Like, they they came out for the first drive last week against Miami. They started doing some of their old concepts. Like, last year, it was less shotguns and play action.

00:08:38

CJ's getting rid of the ball on time, then they got stuffed on like a or they threw a shot deep on 3rd and 1. They decided to kick a field goal there. I was like, okay. Texas offense, maybe they're back. Rest of the game, they stunk.

00:08:48

They they were worse than the the Chiefs' offense last week. They had a 180 yards. Like, people weren't watching that game as much, but they look lost. CJ Stroud is is under fire and and not looking comfortable.

00:09:00

He's under pressure.

00:09:01

He made a couple really nice second reaction plays to score touchdowns, and they took advantage of the red zone trips. And he had a couple magical plays under heat, but they they've been bad all season too on offense. So that's why I'm saying 41 is way too high.

00:09:17

Way too high.

00:09:18

I don't know who's gonna win this game, but I feel amazing that it's going under 41.

00:09:23

I like Houston, and part of it is also is, you know, watching the Chiefs. They look due. They like they like due for what happened to the Lions last week.

00:09:30

Okay. So That's true. That is true. They feel very ready On the press to get picked up. And the the argument for them would be the Texans defense is the best unit in this entire game.

00:09:40

So you have you have 2 struggles. Saying a lot. Yep.

00:09:43

Because Kansas City's defense is legit.

00:09:44

Stingley was just crazy last week.

00:09:46

That Texans defense going on the road. Also, a good defense on the road on Saturday as well. The Pittsburgh Steelers at the Baltimore Ravens who are favored by 6 with a over under of 45. It is Fox a 1, Kevin Burkhart, Tom Brady, Aaron Hughes, and Tom Rinaldi on the call. Steve to see Lamar and Derrick Henry try to get revenge against the Steelers team, that gave them that loss back in week 11.

00:10:10

Yeah. A 2 point loss, which is how these games go. That's why I was seeing this number like, this is crazy. 7 of the last 8 games, neither team has scored more than 20 points, which is why I look at the over underline.

00:10:21

Yep.

00:10:22

Right? And then we know Pittsburgh's won, but, 8 of the last 9. But it's funny, man, that that Eagles game we're talking about. The Eagles put it on the Steelers, and everyone now is like, are the Steelers fraudulent? Man, that narrative is freaking blasting over the speakers right now, and I think they're a good team.

00:10:41

I like Baltimore in this, not by 6. I do not like the over under, but here's why. It's this is gonna sound absolutely crazy coming from me. The fact that Justin Tucker is 5 of 5 on the PAT. I think he might get his mojo back.

00:10:53

Woah.

00:10:54

He's at home. Might get his mojo back. I think that's gonna be important for Baltimore.

00:10:58

I need more than just extra points. But that's that's a

00:11:01

But I

00:11:01

mean, I mean, I'm saying 35. Yeah. Those extra points are for field goal retention. So that that's what I'm saying. Those PAT kicks now, he might he might have got his win back.

00:11:08

Let's give me another close shot.

00:11:09

Okay. That that would make me feel better. I wanna see them just be more disciplined about preventing the deep ball. And if George Pickens is not playing, that really helps their case. I mean, it

00:11:22

is better though with Hamilton playing that deep that deep third safety. He's they've been better, man.

00:11:27

They have. They made a lot of changes coming out of the buy. So that game against the Giants, everyone will just say, okay. It was against the Giants. But they did do a number of things that I I think are interesting to watch moving forward.

00:11:39

Number 1 on my list, I made a list of what's changed.

00:11:42

Okay.

00:11:43

Roquan Smith, I think the extra week of rest that he had in the buy really helped him. He looked like the old Roquan. Like, he was flying around, and he he left that game against the Steelers the first time, and that was when the Steelers scored some points was was when Roquan left. They benched Trent Simpson. That was interesting.

00:11:59

That wasn't He he he's gone. It's Chris Board now. They're playing some more safeties. Marcus Williams, they came out of the by with him as a healthy scratch. And and so that's they've kinda made what their decisions on who's gonna be playing in their back end.

00:12:13

At at quarterback, it it's the young kid Wiggins He's fantastic. Brandon Stevens back out there. I I trust them. They made it they gave me a change at punt returner too. Desmond King, they've had some troubles with the punt returns.

00:12:25

He had a couple nice places to put these little things that gives me hope as a as a guy who wants to see the Ravens close strong like you, Patrick, that maybe this is the old Ravens' magic. Because I I gotta check the numbers on this, but I swear they're the best team at improving in December, like, in the entire NFL. Now that the old, like, Brady Patriots are gone.

00:12:45

The Rams are right.

00:12:46

Rams are there too. Yeah. But they always just do these little moves, and maybe these are the moves that that get it done. I think the defense was improving even before the.

00:12:53

Well and that's the thing. Right? With with the franchises and the historic like, historically looking back, it's front offices and coaching staffs that have been together for a long time. They they know how to go through this personnel process, and they're on the same page, with it. And we had Zach Orr coming in as the new defensive coordinator, and and and things took time, right, to to work out how they go about, defending these teams.

00:13:17

And, ultimately, without George Pickens, it's a fundamentally different Steelers offense. Yeah. Not just against ball Right. Really against anybody because you're asking now Mike Williams, and Calvin Austin to do George Pickens things that that really right? He he's unique in more ways than 1, George Pickens.

00:13:34

And and I I think he's going. And the AFC North hard knocks, you know, you get a different look at all the many ways, that George Pickens is different. But it's it comes down to, how healthy is TJ Watt after leaving Mhmm. In this game? Because La Lamar's consistent struggles against this team are directly related to number 90.

00:13:54

When things get dicey and Lamar is out on the edge, others so many players that he can make miss, make look like fools. TJ is not 1 of them. No. He he No.

00:14:03

They do a great job kind of limiting him going outside.

00:14:06

It's a great strategy. You know, TJ Watt, look. Let's not forget they got Preston Smith there. They made a great trade. This is there's some subtle trades and things like this that we aren't really recognizing as as much.

00:14:15

Preston Smith has helped out Nick Herbig can go on either side. Mhmm. Alex Highsmith is back. Now you can you're never gonna replace TJ Watt, but, strategically, what they've done, It has worked. And so but to get back to your changes about Baltimore, Greg, you know what they did?

00:14:29

They got faster on defense. Even though Trenton Simpson could run, he was confused some of the calls. I think with Roquan, they were asking him to do too much, man. Some of the coverage stuff they're asking to do was, like, come on, man. That's tough for anybody.

00:14:40

Brian Urlacher type of thing to do. You get faster on the back end. Something's been going off Marcus Williams all year because he's been in and out of the lineup, but they're faster. They needed to improve that speed because teams were taking advantage of it early on.

00:14:52

That that's a great point. And on offense, did their number 1 concern is their offensive line still. I I actually believe their guards in pass pro, like, against the best teams are are gonna be a problem. They actually struggled, I thought, against the Giants. It you wouldn't have known it, but those big guys, like, they're not good pass protectors.

00:15:10

But what they did was they got a little heavier. They went really heavy on the 2 tight ends. Not that they don't do that normally, but they cranked it up to about their their highest that they've done it all year last week. And I think that's having their best players on the field likely in Andrews at the same time. Well, so we'll see if they stay as heavy and our friend hide them behind the glass supporting us, as as our teammates gives me the stat that Lamar Jackson is undefeated as a starter after week 15 in his career.

00:15:38

Oh. 12 and o. So they really do That's a strong stat. They really do improve late in the season, and I I think they keep it going. I think they cover the 6 too.

00:15:47

Wow. Let's go.

00:15:48

I'll I'll take that.

00:15:49

I don't. I mean, we're

00:15:51

we're not allowed to do

00:15:52

You just said the guards are playing well in Cam Hayward's playing better than any d tackle.

00:15:56

I just believe there's 1 team that has by far the highest explosive play rate in the NFL. It's not even close. Like, the the Ravens are they're just explosive explosive. And another team that if they don't have pickings, they don't actually run the ball well. People just say that for some reason

00:16:12

They don't.

00:16:12

That they don't.

00:16:13

They don't.

00:16:13

So you're gonna have to move the ball down the field slow. I just I don't see it. I think it's, like, a 10 point game. It's nothing crazy with it.

00:16:20

If the Ravens win, though, I

00:16:21

mean, that shakes up the AFC nicely.

00:16:23

That

00:16:23

puts him in striking range. You get the division.

00:16:25

You we wanna talk about those AFC contenders that are playing on Saturday. They're they're all 4 of them, the Steelers, the Ravens, the Chiefs, and Texans will be back because they're flip flopping. The 1 team that played the other team on Saturday is playing a different team. It's like a little in season tournament. Shout out to the cup champions.

00:16:41

That was gonna be yeah. Chiefs, Steelers, and Ravens, Texans Christmas Day on Netflix. Let's go to our next game.

00:16:50

Actually, if you're watching on YouTube here, Patrick, I just wanted to point out, the promotion out there for Netflix. It's got all the biggest names in the industry. Ian Eagle, Greg Olsen, JJ Watt. April Olsen. You know, Stacy Dales is in the now.

00:17:08

And then who who is on that that big promotion? NFL DAILIES' own Steve Weiss. Now he might not, you know, list himself that way, but that's how I list him. NFL daily zone. Steve Weiss is on that promo with all the big hitters, like Gene Steritor is on that.

00:17:24

Is that a connect 4 promo?

00:17:26

It could be. I mean,

00:17:27

it really does look like it, doesn't it?

00:17:29

Drew Brees is on there. I think he's doing the international, broadcast with with Hanson on Netflix.

00:17:35

So I got very cool.

00:17:36

Tayo. Very cool that you're gonna be on

00:17:38

Very fortunate.

00:17:38

The Netflix coverage on Christmas. How does the how does the wife feel about that, the family? Is she going down there? You're gonna celebrate

00:17:46

My wife will not be going down there. All of our kids will be home. So Sorry

00:17:50

about that.

00:17:51

There'll be some FaceTime. It's all good. You know? I've covered the NBA. I've had to work Christmas days for years.

00:17:55

My kids are grown, so it's it's more important for some other So

00:17:59

you're not gonna do, like, a fake Christmas like I do every year before my family leaves me? No. Because that's what we do.

00:18:04

There's nothing fake fake. There's nothing fake about this too, Craig. I'm all 100. Okay. If

00:18:09

if if if you're doing it, it's not fake. It's legitimate. Like, who said the day doesn't have to be the day? People celebrate on not their birthdays all the time. It was not Kirk Cousins' birthday at all Oh.

00:18:19

Nor was it the birthday of any Giants quarterback at all in 2024. So we're gonna get Drew lock against Michael Pinnocks junior in Atlanta, Greg, the over under 42. It's the Falcons with their quarterback making this first ever start as an 8 and a half point favorite, Kevin Coogler. Moose Johnston and Laura Oakman on the call. We had said it was gonna be the last game for several weeks.

00:18:44

You called it after the last game for Kirk Cousins. Now it's the rookie with a chance to get some experience against the Giants.

00:18:50

Yeah. The bar is so low, and I don't think we need to talk about this game too much. Although No. With Drew Lock, I give the Giants a better chance to be competitive than they would have been with Tommy DeVito, and 8a half is crazy. I mean It

00:19:03

went down. It went down after the quarterback change. It was 10.

00:19:06

I know. I know. Yeah. Why? PENEX I don't know.

00:19:09

Improves him. So let's just talk PENEX this whole time because it it it's a fascinating that they did make the decision. I thought the way Cousins played kinda left them almost no choice. They owed it to the rest of the team. They still have an uphill battle to make the playoffs, but you can do 2 things here.

00:19:23

You can get a little peek at PENEX and help his development, and I think he gives you a better chance to win games because Cousins was playing that poorly.

00:19:33

Yep.

00:19:34

What do you what do you think it means for Cousins' future? Let's just start there. It's hard to imagine him playing for the Falcons ever again unless Bennix gets hurt in the next 3 weeks.

00:19:44

Well, I mean, he's got no trade clause. Right? So we're looking at the Russell Wilson situation all over again. Will they move him and pay pay pay for his salary for someone else? That could happen.

00:19:56

Remember, they ate what was the number for Matt Ryan? Remember, they ate that type of cap space to move Matt Ryan. So the Falcon's front office is not afraid to make a move like this.

00:20:05

Man, but they just did that.

00:20:07

They just did it, but they're but they've they've signed their younger players to long term deals. I mean, they're they're pretty well situated cap wise, and that number's gonna be there anyway. And they've got his backup on a rookie deal. But I but I think for Cousins, they'll probably be some teams. I think he'll waive it.

00:20:22

What's interesting to note about this scenario, he could've done this with Minnesota. They're gonna draft a quarterback. He wasn't really happy about that thing. Well, he wasn't really happy about this, so I I think you realize that Kirk might not be too cool being a backup to Michael Penic. So I think he will be somewhere next year.

00:20:40

It'll be interesting to see if he's a starter. I think he could be kinda the pickup guy after all the other, pieces have been have been draft.

00:20:48

Why? I mean, I guess there you could convince yourself that maybe he'd be healthier a year, you know, more removed from his surgery, but he's also older and 37.

00:20:58

Yeah. Yeah. It's almost like, would you take him over Daniel Jones? I mean, that that's kind of where No. Right.

00:21:02

I mean, that's kind of where I think some of that conversation could go. I mean, a lot of people would, a lot of people wouldn't.

00:21:08

You're you're sitting next to 1. I I would gladly take her. People are doing a comparison. Right? Because Aaron is 41 Correct.

00:21:15

And Kirk Cousins is 36. Yeah. And it feels like simple math. Aaron Rodgers' Achilles injury happened 3 months before Kirk Cousins did.

00:21:23

Right.

00:21:23

Kirk Cousins, it's very difficult. Like, we could talk, like, the the the state of of health. It's very difficult to become healthier playing in the National Football League. Sure. And so I I really think with with more time removed, Kirk Cousins' like, long term viability, I mean, in the next 3 or 4 years, I I think at a certain point, he will get closer to being the Kirk Cousins that we know.

00:21:44

This version is still clearly dealing with something.

00:21:47

What's interesting, though, Patrick move. What's what's interesting, though, when people say that is 6 weeks ago, we were talking about that. Kirk he was Kirk o change.

00:21:55

We were a little bit on this show. We were saying we're we're so impressed that he was doing it despite the limitations that something got worse.

00:22:01

And I think Patrick brought up a stat. Like, he was only move had the least amount of movement, like, a 1 and a half yards in the pocket. So that part was there, but you saw there was some stuff. He was stepping into his throws. I don't know if there was a lack of confidence, but he's throwing wiffle balls out there.

00:22:14

I mean, those balls pop out of his hand, and they die after 5 yards. They were having to throw the ball between the numbers because he couldn't get it outside. Teams knew that that's what's leading to all the interceptions. That's why they had to make a move. But, you know, I I think I think Patrick, you know, is an interesting point because I do think he will get healthier.

00:22:33

Does he want to? I mean, does he wanna does he wanna

00:22:36

Oh, I bet he will. So So

00:22:37

Well, the money's gonna be there. I mean, he's got a significant paycheck coming. I think he will too.

00:22:40

So Michael Silver, our old coworker, I I saw him talking about that. All all his old coaches are fascinated by him still and that there will be a market for him. And I had my doubts, but not now you're you're making the case, Patrick, that there's all there's always a market for a quarterback, but I sent a couple texts yesterday about this when when it happened. And I thought, oh, maybe Kirk actually like, would Kirk ever actually be okay being the backup to Penex? It's not that crazy.

00:23:10

Like, if you've already got him under contract, you have a good number too. And they were like, are you high? They're like they thought there's no way. He is not gonna be happy. He is, you know, they they were surmising, but they just did not think he would be okay with that scenario.

00:23:26

And and that is essentially what you're saying too.

00:23:28

We're we're on the verge of watching Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield after playing on that woeful Carolina Panthers team, start playoff games Yeah. In which their their teams and fan bases believe that they give them, the the best chance to win. We saw Peyton Manning come back from that neck injury where there's, like, Zapruder film of of him throwing and training, and all of a sudden, the whole league's like, alright. We're back in. We're back in.

00:23:50

I I just don't think I don't think it's that difficult to believe other Kurt Cousins can be significantly better than the 1 that

00:23:56

I'm glad you're presenting that side of the argument even though I I am just even though I don't see it. I think it's just closer to Matt Ryan in Indianapolis that when you see something like that, and it was why we felt confident why I felt confident on the show. Like, they are gonna bench him. I don't care about the money. Like, when you see that, they're not coming back from that.

00:24:16

They're just I think it was more of a like, he whatever he needed because he was always a confident player, he'll always be willing to rip the ball. He had totally lost it this year. Maybe maybe you get that confidence back, but that was as important to me as as what he lost in terms of his movement. Let's give it a little love to, though. Yeah.

00:24:34

What do we do? What do we think he's gonna look like the next couple weeks? He's a fascinating prospect, and, I'm really glad they drafted him, for family's sake. Smart for drafting. I think they were smart at the time because you always gotta keep I think invest as much as you possibly can in quarterback until you're sure you got 1, and they couldn't have been sure they got 1 with Kirk Cousins.

00:24:52

Well, they paid Kirk Cousins a $100100,000,000.

00:24:54

I know.

00:24:54

That that was the issue. It's not there's not them drafting appendix. It was sign drafting him after signing Kirk.

00:25:00

I get it, which was bad process. I have heard speculation. I'm wondering what you think Steve is a is an insider. That there's a chance once the Falcons got Kirk in the building that they were a little more skeptical of where he was at physically, and that it impacted that you really couldn't have had as much knowledge of where he was at physically beef before the trade.

00:25:26

I mean, that might be I to me, I think that might be hindsight. Because remember when they did this, Kirk's our guy. Kirk's our guy. They draft Pinnick. He's our guy.

00:25:33

Yeah. So if they had any questions about it physically, they sure weren't tipping their hand. Plus, Michael Pinnick has not been getting first team reps. True. He has not been getting 1st team reps.

00:25:42

When you watch an NFL practice, your starter gets 98% of the reps. So they're gonna have to on a 4 like, I think he's gonna know the playbook. It's just the operation of things. And this is where a guy's playing 5 years in college is going to help him. He's gonna understand coverage.

00:25:56

He's gonna understand how the game flow is supposed to go. So I think that's gonna help, and they're gonna be able to throw the ball outside of the numbers. He can rip it. You talk to people down there. They're like, we didn't show him.

00:26:06

Remember? He only played 1 preseason game. We didn't show him in preseason because that arm is a beautiful thing to see. And we didn't want 1. He you know, I spoke to Raheem about this.

00:26:15

We didn't want to see other team other show other teams that arm, but I don't think they wanted to show their fans that arm. Oh. 0. Because they would've been calling for this change a lot earlier

00:26:24

than it happened. That would be that would be even worse process. Oh.

00:26:30

We are talking about the 1 winged bird. There are 2 wings on that falcon on the helmet, Patty.

00:26:34

They they are suddenly circles

00:26:36

for a long time.

00:26:37

Yeah. That's it.

00:26:38

It's true.

00:26:39

That they that is amazing. We, we suddenly have 1 of the most interesting parts of the last 3 weeks, though, is Michael Penech starting this game. So just as an an unbiased observer, like, I'm kinda happy to have this. We needed some injection of interesting story lines into the end. And And that division too.

00:26:58

And this is a very winnable game. And then next week, they have a game, against another contender. I'm forgetting who it is now off the top of my head. I'll check. But, they're in the mix.

00:27:09

Yeah. They just need some help from the Dallas Cowboys, and they're right back in it, with an opportunity. And, yeah, watching the Giants, my favorite player ever was playing. The Giants had 5 touchdowns last week. I could barely stand to watch it.

00:27:21

So

00:27:21

They're by the way, they're on Sunday Night Football next week. That was what I was thinking against the Commanders.

00:27:26

Yes.

00:27:27

And they actually could even in a scenario where the if they can win this week, they could actually get into the wild card race even if the Bucks keep winning to win the NFC South. If the commanders lose this week to the Eagles Yep. And then they can beat them heads up next week, then it just makes for an interesting stretch run. And, frankly, he's my type of quarterback that I've been wrong about and right about before. He he's handed?

00:27:50

No. Like, big arm anticipation throws from the pocket. Like, to me, he's like he's like Herbert on the high end, Jamis maybe in the mid middle lower end, like, Mike Glennon in the middle. Cutler would be a better example.

00:28:08

Cutty.

00:28:08

Cutter. Cutler. Let's get let's give him give me Cutler, but he cares. That that would be a great player.

00:28:13

And it's no longer Jay Cutler.

00:28:15

Real real quick. And this is and this is from the Patrick Claybond hole of of destiny. Right? I tweeted it yesterday. Michael Peniskey is named starter, and what else happens on that day?

00:28:25

Michael Vick gets named the head coach at Norfolk State. So 2 left handed falcons quarterbacks leading their programs in new directions. You like that? I love it. Predestined.

00:28:36

Yeah. It's symmetry. And we interrupt our Atlanta Falcons podcast to get to the Arizona Cardinals, 4 and a half point favorites on the road against the team that sunk our survivor picks, last week, the Carolina Panthers, the over under 47, Chris Myers, Mark, and Jen Hale on the call. All the positive vibes, Steve, from the previous, you know, vibe boosting, but still losses, went out the window Yes. It did.

00:29:03

Or Carolina. How do they perform against the cardinals team that still has a little bit of hope as well?

00:29:07

Yeah. I I think, you know, with Arizona getting back in the win column against, you know, bad patriots team last week, This could be a competitive game. That's 6 and a half or I'm sorry. That 4 was it 4, 4 and a half, number? I like it for Arizona.

00:29:20

I think this is 1 where James Conner, he goes over a 1000 for the season. They pound the ball. They kinda get back to where they were a little bit, not relying so much on Kyler. And I think Carolina with that I mean, they did more than stub their toe last week. I think that just kinda they plateaued, and, you know, if if Arizona gets up on them quickly.

00:29:39

Maybe they'll respond. I think it's a could. I think it's an important month for for Bryce to continue his progress in the in the program to continue it. They were due, I guess, to have a bad week, and and they certainly had 1. I went week.

00:29:52

Well, I just mean, they've been competitive in all these games. I think looked like a real NFL team. And then last week, they they went back to their worst habits. I went through a lot of the playoff scenarios, okay, to make the case for these teams that feel like they're a little on the outside looking in. Arizona wins a 3 way tie in the NFC West if they all go 107.

00:30:15

Now they gotta win out to do that, but they but they have 2 division games, the Rams and the 40 niners, that'll help them. So they they would if it's Seahawks, Cardinals, and Rams at 10 and 7, Cardinals win the division. They also win the 2 way the if it's a 2 way tie with the Rams, assuming that they Right. Beat the Rams on Saturday night on NFL Network next week, which is a it that's that's their do or die game. Every game is basically a do or die game, but but it's not that crazy of a route.

00:30:41

They basically win these next 2 games in Carolina and against the Rams, and they might be in the driver's seat 2 weeks from now. So even though they I don't I was not convinced by them last week. They didn't make me feel any better or worse about them the way they played against the Patriots, and Kyler had a okay game, nothing great. But they have an opportunity here. It's still all right in front of them.

00:31:03

By the way, Buddha Baker, How about that? Got a nice little contract extension. Yeah. Sure. His 3rd contract.

00:31:08

3rd by him. 3rd contract.

00:31:09

Oh my god.

00:31:10

That is tough to do.

00:31:11

David Mulligan represents a man. David David gets all those guys taken care of.

00:31:15

And, the search bar, it's gotten some reinforcements.

00:31:18

Yeah. Good. Good. Good. Good.

00:31:19

We got Baron Browning. I mean, that's a guy people actually do know.

00:31:22

Mhmm.

00:31:22

And then their 1st round pick, Darius Robinson, played a a lot last week. So and they just gave a guy a big contract, Buddha Baker. The search bar might they might graduate from the search bar at some point.

00:31:32

The links are are are gonna be purple because everybody's gonna have have seen.

00:31:37

Alright. We are just getting going here on NFL daily. We got we got a lot of games to get to. We're gonna hit some fun ones after the break, including, the Lions. See if they can bounce back this week.

00:31:59

Back on NFL daily, Patrick, before you set up this next game

00:32:02

Okay.

00:32:04

Can you just remind me what the quote you read to me from Kirk Cousins during the the break was? Because it it was it was beautiful.

00:32:11

So he did call Michael Pinnocks junior. They asked him at his availability why he called him. And he said, quote, I like to shoot elephants in the room, so I just wanted to shoot 1. And they said he couldn't execute the big game, but there he is.

00:32:25

Well done. Oh. Nicely played. Good job. Nicely played.

00:32:29

Shoot the elephant in the room. Oh my god. And then he circled back

00:32:34

to it.

00:32:34

I like to shoot elephant sweat. Hey, man. That's poaching. We can't do it too much, Kirk.

00:32:39

Oh, cousins.

00:32:40

Oh, Kirk.

00:32:41

How we love the yes. That's a look back, but let's look forward to the Detroit lions, the very, very injured Detroit lions, but still very, very good. 6 and a half point favorites in Chicago against the bears with the over under of 48 Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma, and Megan O'Livi. On the call, Coach Campbell said, Greg, he's not buying the injury stuff. It's gonna be tough.

00:33:04

No more David Montgomery for the rest of the season. Ali McNeil, hoping to get good news on Carlton Davis. It's not gonna matter against the Bears, but what can they show you, that they can get it done without those guys?

00:33:16

Defensively, I just think they wanna stabilize and have a positive performance. As banged up as they are and losing McNeil is huge for that defensive line. Huge. They they still do have Zedaria Smith, and they got it for everyone, you know, talking about the injuries last week. They did get Owen Waziriki and DJ Reader back on the field.

00:33:35

So that's 3 starters there on your defensive line. Jack Campbell and that linebacker group behind him, that's really where opposing teams are gonna make them pay. I don't know if the Bears are the team to do that, but just to just to play devil's advocate a little bit, you you still have a a credible defensive line and some really good players in the secondary. Like, I don't think hope is lost. And, oh, by the way, maybe the number 1 offense in the league, which they'll be okay without Montgomery.

00:34:05

Like, he's a big loss, but they'll be okay. They'll be great.

00:34:07

I'm with you. I still think I think Detroit overcomes it at least to to win the NFC North. I think they're gonna go ahead and win the division just because they can score, which is why I think that over underline is what it is at 48 because I don't think the bears are hanging 25 on them. But, you know, at some point, playing the type of football they like to play where they've got it where they can go down and grind out 10 and 12 play drives. When teams start doing that to them because of some of the injuries that they have and the lack of depth they have, that's where it's gonna catch up to them.

00:34:36

But in the short term, I think they're still too explosive and just too creative offensively, to really fall off right now.

00:34:42

Yeah. It's gonna be more volume, for Jamere Gibbs, obviously. I guess Craig Reynolds slides in. He has the most non, Jared Goff actually has the 3rd most carries on the team. Oh.

00:34:52

But then you go down to Craig Reynolds as far as at the running back position. So he comes in. He fills up nicely the role that I think, it hurts, the offense. But over on the defensive side of the ball, even when they did have everybody, it's not like the lions were shutting people down, on defense. They I I think back to the the shootout against Geno, 1 of many, shootouts against Geno that the lions have had in the past few years where they've had to score, in the past, and and they can still do that.

00:35:19

It's not a problem against Chicago, but I I I think we're gonna learn a little bit about this team in this game in terms of how they approach, a a game against the team that they're significantly better than. The the loss against Buffalo, Buffalo's still a very good team with a generational quarterback. Right. Gives a lot of defenses problems.

00:35:38

Might just be the Super Bowl favorites Yeah. On a neutral field Sorry. Buffalo Bills.

00:35:42

It's not the I I feel like there's this tendency because we want so much from the lions, and there's it's been such a great story to feel like this is it. This is over. This is

00:35:51

still 1 of the best. Yeah. Their their fans haven't been in this position, and I I saw some of the reaction online to their great beat writer, Colton Pouncey, and he's answering questions from the fans. And they're, like, well, what even hope do we have left? Is it over now?

00:36:05

And it's like, no. You guys lost the game, and you've had an incredible amount of injuries that is gonna make this path tougher. But let's not get it twisted. You're still 1 of the favorites. You're still 1 of the 5 teams, 5 or 6, that if you're hosting you're you're winning Lombardi in a couple months, then I won't be surprised because Jared Goff has never played better.

00:36:25

I am convinced he is

00:36:26

He's balling.

00:36:27

Absolutely peaking. So your quarterback is peaking. You have playmakers, on defense, but you have even more of them on offense and every the continuity, everything is there for them. I this is 1 of my favorite picks of the week is them minus 6a half. I will be putting it out there with Cynthia on our our man versus machine picks because I think great teams respond.

00:36:50

I think Caleb Williams is a little lost at sea right now. Yeah. And even though the Bears defense competed really well, it's a division game. This game was close on Thanksgiving in the end. I I just think great teams respond, and and they'll respond in this game.

00:37:01

Yeah. I agree. I can't wait that week 18 game to them and the Vikings. I mean, that could be for the division, could be for top seed.

00:37:07

Mhmm.

00:37:08

So, I mean, they're gonna have to play all the way through. They've gotta stay healthy all the

00:37:11

way through here. Go to our next home team, a 7 and a half point favorite at home, the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Cleveland Browns. Greg mentioned, Steve, the the very reasonable path, for a team like the Arizona Cardinals. The the Bengals need an incalculable amount of help. It's it's absolutely insane.

00:37:31

We saw Joe Burrow's frustrations even in the win against the Tennessee titans. The Browns are gonna be starting DTR, Spiro Ditas Love it. Adam Archuleta, and Didi Kikubala on the call. The over under is 47. What what do we what do

00:37:44

we crazy a path, though? Okay. He let's let's put it out there. Oh, okay. Alright.

00:37:49

Here, Patrick. You win this game against the Browns. Now the Thursday night game, which some of you maybe have even watched by the time you listen to this, it's so important for Cincinnati, the Broncos chargers game. You could look at it 2 different ways. You could want the chargers to lose because they'll be easier to catch, but they lose the head to head against the chargers.

00:38:08

So you actually would need the chargers, to lose another game after that and and win out. And the chargers have 2 quite winnable road games. You could look at it the other way and look at where the Broncos are at right now. They be they they would have the head to head over the Broncos. If the Bengals could win out, the Broncos lose on Thursday night.

00:38:28

The next week, they play against the Broncos. The Bengals play the Broncos in week 17. That's a really big game, and you could take out the team that's right in front of you. And the Broncos finished with the Chiefs. We don't know if the Chiefs are gonna be playing for the 1 seed or not, but there are a couple past that aren't that crazy.

00:38:45

To me, that's not crazy to see that the Broncos lose out or the the chargers lose a couple games here. It's it's not over. It's not over. No.

00:38:52

I mean, the only challenge is Cincinnati winning out. Yes. I mean, they they've

00:38:56

they've They're sloppy as hell. Good point. Thank you.

00:38:58

That's an issue.

00:38:59

I've been making that point all year. Thank you. Good point.

00:39:01

Sorry. Penalties, negative plays. Yes.

00:39:04

You're right.

00:39:04

I mean, look. This week first off, I don't like that number. What what is the number?

00:39:09

7 and a half. I don't like that. DTR.

00:39:11

They're playing DTR, but Cleveland's defense is good, man. I mean, you talked about how the hell can't see the 21 points with 6 takeaways. That defense, guys in the secondary are playing well. They're competing. I mean, they've got some pros on that side of the ball.

00:39:26

They should be DTR, but who knows if he pulls it down and starts running on him, doesn't give it away. I I I mean, Cleveland, they'd have their their speed on the offense is is isn't there in in the run game. Well, Jerome Ford had a big hit last week, but it's just with Cincinnati. They still I mean, it is the Burrow and those 2 stud wide receivers. Everywhere else, you just keep making so many mistakes just when you wanna buy into them.

00:39:51

Like, gosh. These guys are self destructive. I I love that scenario you rolled out. I don't see the chargers or the Broncos making the mistakes that the Bengals do when it comes to winning ball games and not being

00:40:03

Well, at least win this game and you give yourself Yeah. Another week to go to that Broncos game. And, yeah, Joe Burrow do something

00:40:12

That would be awesome.

00:40:12

Extraordinary. And you're right. Watching them have I think it was, like, 12 penalties and 4 turnovers against the Titans. It's not gonna inspire a ton of confidence. That's fair.

00:40:21

I I think the the problem with the the 1 path, right, other than the most significant issue being the Bengals being the Bengals, is you get in a situation where you're relying on a Carson Wentz led Chiefs team that's sitting everybody like Chris Reynolds is gonna be playing in that game. No no Mahomes. Are left. Probably, we get a Hollywood They

00:40:40

may be, though. Like, not if you guys are right and the chiefs are gonna lose this week against the Texans.

00:40:45

Okay.

00:40:45

Then then they will be playing for week 18 most likely. So just just saying There's a chance. 1 of these is gonna hit. 1 of these create, like, 1 of the teams Always won. Right now that that is around 13% and lower.

00:40:57

There's about 5 or 6 teams between the 2 cover. 1 of them is at least gonna get to week 18 with a real chance and maybe gonna be the Bengals.

00:41:04

There was a team last week that had a chance to be in this discussion Boy. But absolutely melted down. It's the Indianapolis Colts. They are at home in the division. 3 and a half point favorites against the Tennessee titans.

00:41:18

We'll start Mason Rudolph, Tom McCarthy, Jay Fridley, Ross Tucker, and our dear friend, Tiffany Blackman. Tiff. On the call, Greg, where we've finally seen the results of the season long, we'll let us experiment, and the results are back to Mason Rudolph. Meanwhile, the Colts, would like to have that 1 back. They lost their season.

00:41:37

They they they would, but they actually have a higher, you know, percentage chance of making a play. See, everyone just wants to, like, cross these teams out because it just feels like it's better. Yeah.

00:41:45

But you're you're so analytical, man. Watch just some of the dumb stuff some of these teams do where you have no faith, and that's where we're coming from, Greg.

00:41:53

I don't think they're good. I just think they have the easiest schedule in the NFL the last 3 weeks. If you could construct this schedule that did not include the patriots, and maybe the patriots wouldn't be in this mix, could you come up with an easier 3 pack of games than home for Tennessee at the Giants, home for Jacksonville? I actually think even if they don't make the playoffs at 9 and 8, and they're in 1 of the scenarios I laid out for Cincinnati, and I was playing with the playoff machine last night, actually, they didn't get in because Indianapolis gets in at 9 and 8 over Cincinnati. I'm just saying they have a chance.

00:42:25

Even if they don't get in, I actually do think 9 and 8 and Anthony Richardson plays competent football the last 3 weeks against these 3 bad defenses will make the off season feel different, feel better than it does right now. So I do think these late season games matter whether whether you make the playoffs or not.

00:42:43

I I get that point. But if they lose this game I mean, Tennessee

00:42:46

Well, that's a big Yeah.

00:42:47

I mean, Tennessee is just such a wild card. I mean, some days, they can get you inspired. Some I I have no faith in them right now. But, like, the Colts don't win this game. It's like, you're gonna look back on Jonathan Taylor.

00:42:59

That fumble, like, wow. That that's what broke our backs. And to me, that goes where you maybe aren't as mentally tough as you need to be. I do like Indianapolis in this game. I just I mean, Tennessee's pack the bags.

00:43:13

We talked about it at the start of the show, man.

00:43:15

There's a team Yeah. We're we're in the That's what I mean.

00:43:17

Final 3 preseason game.

00:43:18

Richardson's so hard because that first drive he had last week where he had a couple just beautiful throws, and then they call the the read option. And he he just looks like a faster Cam Newton out there, and you think and he throws really difficult middle of the field throws. He's so hard to take down and but but it's just not consistent.

00:43:38

No. It it's not. And even even on the drive, right, where, he steps through a defender, defender is gear rolling on his ankle, and, like, Richardson just pulls away.

00:43:48

The 1 I'm thinking of.

00:43:49

Yeah. He's playing with his cousins. Like, his baby cousins are in the backyard trying to he's like, no. I I will not be sacked. And then couple plays later has a inexplicable turnover.

00:43:58

You know, it's just it's up and down. That's that's the nature of the Colts, but perhaps not out of it. As Greg Rosenthal says, there's always Gosh. There's always a chance.

00:44:07

It's a real chance. It's a real chance.

00:44:09

NFL optimism daily. A chance to see 2

00:44:12

2 really good quarterbacks, a couple of the best of their generations, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, not favored at home against Matthew Stafford and the Rams who are favored by 3 and a half points. Kevin Harlan, Trent Green, Melanie Collins on the call. The Jets got a win that they desperately Oh, man. Still came down to the wire. Can they be the spoiler against the Rams, Steve?

00:44:35

Well, they absolutely can

00:44:36

be the spoiler. I mean, if they play to some degree like they did last week on offense, I mean, Davante Adams is fantastic. Better if he Garrett Wilson, otherwise, more problems are coming because that's very talented, but, you know, they they look like a legit football team against a football team that has also packed their bags in Jacksonville Jaguars. That's 2 from the FC South who've already gone fishing. But I just think the Rams, man, the way they're playing, the way they're running the ball is physical as they're playing on the offensive line up front.

00:45:07

Those young dudes up front on the defensive front, we can't stop talking about them enough. They have not hit a rookie wall. They have built a rookie wall. Mhmm. I love the way they're playing.

00:45:17

Some of the stuff they're getting out of the kicking game as well as special teams. I just think the Rams are playing too well. I mean, the Jets can go out and play a really good game. I think Stafford, this Rams, all 3 phases are 1 of the most dangerous teams. And if they get in, that's the team you don't wanna face.

00:45:32

Absolutely. And although the the NFC's filled with them. It's it's a really deep compelling playoff field where, like, I wouldn't wanna play the Packers. No. I wouldn't wanna play the Bucks.

00:45:41

Like, there are you'd like and that these are the teams that are a little I wouldn't wanna play the Vikings. Like, they're all it it's a really it's gonna be a great NFC tournament, especially if the Rams are in it. Just they haven't played their best for what it's worth on these longer road trips. I I don't know if this is a a trend or just random, but the saint that Saints game, they they didn't have any points at halftime. They lost to the Bears early.

00:46:03

That was way early in the season, but they lost to the Bears. The Patriots game came right down to the wire. So they they haven't done great with these longer road trips out outdoor you know, outdoors. We'll see. And Aaron Rodgers is unquestionably playing better, looking better, looking healthier than he has all season.

00:46:15

He rushed for 45 yards. Let healthier than he has all season. He rushed for 45 yards

00:46:20

Led the team?

00:46:21

Last week. So Next. They're a little more dangerous. I think and even Sauce Gardner, Jeff Ullbricks said, has played his best 2 games of the season last 2 weeks, and it's, like, kind of the sauce we knew. He's playing with better spirit.

00:46:35

They're they're just a little more dangerous, I think, than they were about a month ago, so they gotta be careful.

00:46:39

Yeah. It was, sauce Gardner ending the game on an inexplicable Mac Jones throw, last week, which is a big part of why the jets were able to be celebratory and happy as we can celebrate the fact that it's time for a hot matchup. Yeah. Presented by Wingstop. Yes.

00:46:56

It's back in the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles, 3 and a half point favorites on the road against Jaden Daniels and the Washington Commanders 45a half c over under. Joe Davis, G Reg, and Pam Oliver on the call. Greg, the commander's surviving. A late push by the Rizzie Saints

00:47:15

Yeah.

00:47:16

Where a 2 point conversion was the difference. They are in the thick of a playoff race against the Philadelphia team that dispatched their in state rival a week ago.

00:47:25

Yeah. And dispatched the commanders, remember, on that Thursday night football game. That was kind of a 2 teams heading in a little separate directions at that point where Philadelphia had 1 of their wins, and they've had a lot like this where it's close for a while even though it doesn't feel close, and then they just they just wear you down. And if you think about what's happened since, Philly's actually had a tougher schedule, and yet they've won all their games. I thought when the 2 teams played against each other again, like, the Washington might still be in it, but they're they really aren't.

00:47:58

And quietly, they're not quite the same team that they were before. Noah Brown is out for the season. Austin Eckler, you really feel for him because of that concussion that he suffered might be out for the season. I I'm guessing that he is. And Zach Ertz is in the concussion protocol this week.

00:48:14

So they were already a little thin on offense. Their center, Tyler Biyatas, was hurt last week as well. He's back. He is supposed to play. Yeah.

00:48:21

So and Jonathan Allen, their talented defensive lineman might be back for this game. So that's good. But I look at 1 team to me that other than Jalen Hurts being up and down is, you know, gathering strength almost at every position group, the the Philadelphia Eagles, and another that is not improving necessarily the commanders as the season goes on.

00:48:41

I think

00:48:41

they're gonna give Philadelphia hell of a game here. Okay. Because you remember when you talk about that last game, Saquon rushed for they that's a team they rushed for, like, 230 yards. Saquon was most of that hit some big runs late. I think Washington's gonna deny some of those explosive plays, and that's gonna balance things out a little bit.

00:48:57

They do they were doing some things with Frankie Louver, a linebacker that came. I remember they were putting him out on the edge a lot to create some pressure, and that opened up the middle of the field for Saquon. I don't think that's gonna happen again. I I just think this is gonna be a hell of a game. Philly at 3a half.

00:49:10

Maybe Philly gets to win 3a half might be much. Isaac Washington and and Marshawn Lattimore coming out in his debut and shutting things down, I think he's gonna he's gonna help his defense.

00:49:21

No. I mean,

00:49:21

I'm just saying I just think No.

00:49:22

No. No. You're right. I'm laughing about something that happened on this show last week.

00:49:25

Yeah. I'm saying schematic. He's gonna allow them to do some things that are gonna deny some of those run yards that Philly got last time.

00:49:31

I'm glad you brought that up, Steve, because we had a we had a mole inside the Saints building last week, and we actually heard that Mickey Loomis, he said, I don't care what you guys do in this game, Rizzie. No matter what, you are not throwing it to Marshawn Lattimore. Oh. We will not be embarrassed. Okay.

00:49:49

That was we revealed that on the show last week. Right? Right, Patrick?

00:49:52

Did. Why did

00:49:52

you Okay. That that, that no matter what, we're not letting Marshall and Latimore have a highlight. He he did not have a target. No. I'm not.

00:50:00

Not 1 single target. So our moles, they knew what they were talking about.

00:50:04

Yeah. It's the right way to play a game, probably best to not have JK and her target anybody. Spencer Rattler. Yeah.

00:50:09

Rice. We got it

00:50:10

comes in Good point.

00:50:11

And salvages the game. It makes it somewhat watchable where I I'm just I was I was skeptical about late season cliff. Very, very skeptical. We see more Terry from the right. He scored another.

00:50:22

Yeah.

00:50:22

A touchdown from the right side of the field, last week Great play.

00:50:26

Where,

00:50:27

just just being able to utilize 1 of the best players in the game, that we've had for a long time that that hasn't, seen this level of play from the quarterback position. I always say it, but it's still worth celebrating, that that Terry gets this opportunity to play with Jaden, and and they need him. They need him now. The the run game, you mentioned Ekeler, Brian Robinson junior left the game, against the Saints. And and so it's it's all 5 and 17, And those and those 2 can do it, but to to do it against Philly, at this point, the the way that Quinion is playing, Cooper Dujane coming on, the the Time.

00:51:03

The the the season that, Bond has had as well. It's just

00:51:07

No. Nolan Smith is getting better every week. How is that? Becoming a difference maker for this team. I looked at the numbers since week 7 when when there was a little bit of a downturn for Washington in terms of explosive play rate.

00:51:20

Eagles 3rd in the league, they've cranked it up more big plays. A lot of those are runs too with Saquon. Washington 25th. So Philly is gonna make you work down the field. That's gonna be a really big test for Jaden Daniels.

00:51:31

Can can he be patient and and avoid mistakes? He looked good last week, Jaden Daniels.

00:51:35

Yeah. They and they've got the speed to track him down when he tries to break the pocket. I mean, that's 1 thing he's gotta be cognizant of.

00:51:41

That's our that that's our headliner, by the way, for the early games. I like that that we have 1 big 1 early. Philly and Washington with G Reg on the call. We are gonna be back and we're gonna start talking some late games. My guy, Gino needs a bounce back.

00:51:56

Who knows?

00:51:57

That's 1 of the bigger 4 0 5 games of the year. Seattle, always in big 4 0 5 games, no respect. Oh, yeah. You big Christmas music guy, Colby?

00:52:19

It depends on on the day. I don't like to be saturated with it. But nothing like some good Donny Hathaway, you know, every now and then.

00:52:27

It's anything that's not, that waitress's Christmas rapping song and Paul McCartney's wonderful Christmas song. That's not

00:52:34

a that's a you know. That doesn't that doesn't get through that 1.

00:52:36

Not not just bad Christmas song too. In in my opinion, a person who knows nothing about music. 2 of the worst songs I've ever heard.

00:52:42

Wow. Hot take, but not really wrong.

00:52:46

What about you, Greg? You're you

00:52:47

you I do. As I've gotten older, I've gotten more in the holiday spirit. I grew up not really celebrating Christmas exactly like we would give gifts on the 25th, but my parents are Jewish, and they didn't really wanna get behind that. But now, I think I'm I'm trying to live out the childhood I didn't have. But my family is not that into it.

00:53:06

They almost make fun of me of being like the guy who's trying to get into it. Come on. I mean, you like it present.

00:53:12

Just roasted him. Like, you're all about consumerism, dad.

00:53:15

Not not about that, but, like, going out to the holiday lights and doing all that sort of stuff. Like, the kids, they

00:53:20

They'll change.

00:53:20

They begged off the holiday lights this year. Alright.

00:53:22

Just have him watch a Netflix game on.

00:53:25

There you go. That'll be cool. Walker will be watching from from Japan. You can you can watch it all over the world. Cool.

00:53:32

Look. When I mentioned no respect for the Seahawks at 405, just in case, like, there's sometimes some new fans

00:53:38

Mhmm.

00:53:39

To the mix. Like, 405 means you're not in the 425 window, which is where they show most of the country.

00:53:46

Stand alone.

00:53:46

405, they're just kinda trying to bury it in your local markets and have it end, and they're not giving it full respect. So that's why I say Vikings, Seahawks, I think it's just bad luck that that's a Fox game. That's should be the game of the afternoon, and yet it's buried there.

00:54:00

Yeah. A team that's that's contending for not just the best record in the NFC. I mean, at this point, it could be finished with the best record in the entire NFL, the Minnesota Vikings, 3 and a half point favorites on the road, Steve, against the Seattle team that saw Sam Howell, and they Woah. Needed Geno Smith back, in that game against the Packers on Sunday Night Football. Adam, I mean, Mark Sanchez, Christina Pink on the call, the over under 42a half, where you you start to wonder where can the Vikings stutter late in the season.

00:54:30

Well, here's an opportunity on the road with Gino feeling feeling better than we thought.

00:54:34

Yeah. It's a real tough to play the practice sports team. Good on Gino. I was gonna go off a little bit, not on Gino, but you know, last year when a backup quarterback had to come in for like a half and play and that he was terrible. And after the game, I spoke to a high ranking exec who said, I never wanna see that player in our uniform again.

00:54:54

I don't think the Seahawks ever wanna see Sam Howell. Oh. Snap again. That dude was taken 20 yards, you know, a runway to get it, and he was popping it out 5 yards with problems. They don't wanna ever see him take another snap.

00:55:07

I wanna know who the other quarterback was last year.

00:55:10

Can't see it right now.

00:55:11

Can't do that. That would be You're you're right, though.

00:55:14

Pretty confident.

00:55:15

I follow I follow a lot of Seahawks fans on social media, and there was a lot of curse words being sent towards John Schneider for making the trade to acquire Sam Howell and and kinda sell him as a intriguing prospect. They they missed your luck. Luckily, Geno Smith, you know, gonna be back.

00:55:33

This is this is gonna be a good game, and and and, you know, Minnesota's a 3 and a half point favorite. I like it. Seattle's gonna play tough this game. This is this is kind of a good matchup. We know that McDonald was brought in to be kind of the McVeigh stopper.

00:55:47

We know, you know, Kevin O'Connell runs at McVeigh offense. Sam Darnell was not great Monday night. He was good. He was good enough. But Aaron Jones showed out, you know, the superstar showed out, and I think that's where, you know, the Vikings have the matchup.

00:56:01

They're skilled players, and their superstar players are legit. The guys on the back end are legit. They take the ball away. Seattle's gotta be very careful. And if they don't, Seattle is not able to get the run game going, And it is look, Gino, as much as I kind of mock up to you on quarterback, he's a hell of a player.

00:56:17

Like if they've got a rate, you know, lean on Gino, he can win ball games. But against this defense and the different looks they give you, man, they Brian Flores in second half of game is is insane with the looks he gives you. It is gonna be tough. So I'll I like Minnesota in this game, but I think this this is going to be the late game, of the day.

00:56:35

Really important for both teams. Yep. Minnesota to keep that pole position to win the NFC North. If they win out, they will win the division. Seattle to to try to stay right there in the NFC West or or suddenly they have a skid.

00:56:51

And Seahawks fans probably feel like, man, we we finally felt like we had something, and then the floor just falls out last week. And I felt that way too, but it's like, yeah. That's what 10 and 7 seasons look like.

00:57:03

Yeah.

00:57:03

You're not gonna win every game. This is the 1st year under this program. They've they have been streaky a little up and down, but I don't think just because they looked awful last week against a team that is more talented than that or at least just better than them. I I don't think that means they're done. Their their defensive improvement up front, they got it settled down in the second half of that game.

00:57:24

I think they can give Minnesota

00:57:26

I do too.

00:57:27

Real problems because I think Minnesota's offensive line is a little overrated. O'Neil hasn't really been playing well. They're not great on the interior, and so I know Darnold's been great under pressure all year. As you mentioned, he wasn't on Monday night, and you would love to just keep pressuring him, stop the run, see if this is an ugly weather type of game. You get Ken Walker back.

00:57:49

You get Oluwatimi back, who I I wouldn't have thought was such an important player for the Seahawks, but he's our center, and he got hurt right away in that. That's destabilizing It is. For that to happen, and he's supposed to return for this game. So I I think they will respond. I I like them as an underdog at least to cover.

00:58:06

I'm not sure if I'll pick them to win, but it wouldn't it wouldn't surprise me if the Seahawks won this game.

00:58:10

No. Not at all. And I I think as the as as Mike Mac being the the tree stopper and the Shanahan tree, I I feel like there's there's so many times where I've I don't know if I wanna count Matt LaFleur as

00:58:24

Part of the tree.

00:58:25

I know he's in the tree, but it's just so different. Right? It it it feels like a departure. Kevin O'Connell feels more in line with the with the original tree. And maybe maybe we we

00:58:35

I mean, what is it that he really does that's like a magic sprinkling of this tree? I don't know. Do you think there is something to it?

00:58:41

Yeah. I mean, look. It it does come down to x's and o's. I mean, even though they were What is it?

00:58:45

Is there anything specific?

00:58:46

There is a communication factor. Okay. When you talk to people about Sean Uvay and why he's so good, especially later in the seasons, 1, they develop guys. And just think about all the coaches they've lost, and they still develop young players. We talked about that.

00:58:58

But it's communication. They're like, Sean doesn't just sit in the quarterbacks room. Or he he goes in here, and he makes every player at every position understand why they're doing individually, what they're doing as a kid, what they're doing on that side of the ball, what the team is trying to accomplish. So everybody is invested, and you and Kevin O'Connell does that as well as anybody, man. They they've got a great staff in Minnesota.

00:59:19

Kevin O'Connell could do it. Matt LaFleur is the same

00:59:21

What does Mike McDonald do that seems to gum me up?

00:59:24

He well, he's the he's the stopper. He's he does the stuff kinda like what Fangio did, what Belichick did. Mhmm. You know, he kinda understands. Let's 5 man and 6 man defense in front of him, and let's just beat the hell out of their offensive linemen.

00:59:36

Let's let our linebackers run free and make plays. So they they got some they got some smoke on them.

00:59:44

Okay.

00:59:44

I've I've officially confirmed my priors on this, Greg. So the Rams lineup under center, 44% of the time. Yeah. The Vikings, 50% of the time. The Green Bay Packers lineup under center 23% of the time.

00:59:58

They they have been they have been different. And, The

01:00:01

floor is not on the tree anymore.

01:00:04

I I love that the Vikings essentially start their playoffs now. They they do not play any bad teams the rest of the way. Like, they have Mhmm. Seahawks, Packers, Lions, and then playoffs. Yeah.

01:00:20

And so it it's on. And we'll we're gonna learn about them, and we're gonna learn about this Seattle team. Like, there is a a tendency, I think, after a game that poor on Sunday night football. And it was poor. I mean, they got it handed to them by the Packers.

01:00:36

That just like, okay. I guess they're a pretender. It's like, no. That's what 8 and 6 teams look like. The the Rams have had those games too.

01:00:42

They just haven't had them in the last handful of weeks, and so they just they just need to respond. Let's go. Real

01:00:47

quick. Salute to Patrick Claybaugh for calling Mike McDonald, the the McVay stopper. So he's the Ruben Patterson?

01:00:52

Yeah. He's yeah. The Kobe stop. The Ruby Pat if you wanna go, I I guess, to Michael Petrus. Right?

01:00:57

Like, any number of stoppers who Who is

01:00:59

Michael Petrus stopping?

01:01:01

Well, Michael Petrus was allegedly, stopping LeBron Okay. At a certain point. That that that never came, to be. Much like Andrei Gudala who had LeBron, he have the 1 of the greatest seasons ever, series ever. And somehow got an MVP

01:01:15

over the last couple of months. Celtics Tony Allen was kind of an early LeBron Stafford.

01:01:19

Tony Allen was leading a

01:01:21

team though,

01:01:21

man. Yeah. Tony Allen was a hell of a defensive play.

01:01:24

Oh, I could talk association with you guys all the time, but let's get to the 1, the only thing that matters as, Greg Rosenthal has called him several times this season. Drake May and the New England Patriots on the road where the Bills are 14 point favorite. Vibes immaculate. Josh Allen got engaged to Hailee Steinfeld. And since then, everything's been coming up.

01:01:42

Buffalo 46 is the over under. Iron Eagle, Charles Davis, and Evan Washburn on the call, but 14 points in the division. I know you're skeptical, Greg, of your New England Patriots. That feels like a lot of points.

01:01:56

Yeah. I think they could I think they could cover that. I think there could be a little bit of a letdown factor. It's a weird stretch now that the Bills after getting through these big games have the patriots a couple times and the jets. It seems that they're they're certainly better than, and offensively, they're gonna put up 30 plus.

01:02:15

Yeah.

01:02:15

Oh, yeah. But the reason why 14 is a lot is that you could see Drake May exposing some of the weaknesses that we've seen out of out of Buffalo if he can just get a a little bit of time. And, yes, he is the the 1 thing that matters in New England.

01:02:29

He is the 1 thing that matters.

01:02:31

But what Actually, there's 2, him and Christian Gonzales. Okay. They it Yeah. It is kind of in you know, they do have maybe the best young quarterback and the best young quarterback in the league. There we go.

01:02:41

That's something to build off of.

01:02:42

That's something to build. And those are 2, 2 key positions where at some point you're gonna have to pay him. Well, yes, Jerrod mayo could come under some smoke this week. My God, he's getting cooked up in that market, by the way. 14, not enough.

01:02:55

I I think even if Buffalo is off just because on both sides of the ball, man, both sides of the ball, Buffalo is they're too talented. They're playing too well right now. You know, Sean McDermott's, you know, he's not mentioned enough in the coach of the year conversation. He needs to start we know you start dialing that temperature up a little bit. Josh Allen, whatever.

01:03:12

James Cook is the guy who's been oppressing me in their offense. I mean, it seems like he's hitting 2 or 3 explosive plays off tackle like this every game.

01:03:20

Yeah. And the pagers cannot defend the run, which is No. 1 of the many ways that you can tell they're they're, you know, not as well coached as they were a year ago when they were still good defense, on defense.

01:03:30

There there's a chance, though, for Drake to air it out here, because of all the success the Bills have had, they've still given up 84 points in the last 2 weeks. Yeah. And, you know, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff are very, very good quarterbacks that were traded for each other. But still, this is this is a chance, for New England to to work on this pass of games, showcase, how gifted their quarterback is, who gets some comps to the guy on the other side. And I think that those those comps aren't silly.

01:03:57

They're legit.

01:03:58

I like those comps.

01:03:59

Yeah. He's not quite there physically. I mean, who is No. No. Other than Cam Newton.

01:04:04

Quarterback. Maybe Richardson. I just mean, he's just not as big

01:04:07

as Right.

01:04:08

As as Josh Allen is, and I don't think he's as risk taking. That's been the thing that that has been surprised. I actually thought he was based on you his tape at UNC and early this season, but go go back in the tape. Find me the negative plays Drake May has made the last couple weeks. There have not been many bad decisions, bad plays, and I have some numbers that it's gonna back back.

01:04:28

Oh, here we go. Let's

01:04:29

get them. I did some next Greg stats research this morning. Did my own little stuff. Since, week 10, it's a pretty good long sample size. Yeah.

01:04:40

5 games. 4th in the NFL in completion percentage, all quarterbacks. 7th in completion percentage over expected, and then here here's the 1 that really gets me going. 4th in success rate in the entire NFL despite what's around him, that's a minor miracle. The only guys in front of him are Goff I would and Jared Allen and Josh Allen and Tua actually was in front of him.

01:05:05

I would never have guessed that. Even if a lot of those come in garbage time, he's still throwing the majority of the game.

01:05:11

He's not taking negative plays. Has some 14th. That feels more appropriate too overall, but that's ahead of guys like Baker and Purdy and and Mahomes. And just on there, the individual grade, he says, he's just not making many mistakes, and he's making a lot of, you know, really heavy plays.

01:05:25

Under a lot of pressure too.

01:05:26

Good for him. He's real, Patrick. He's he's real. It's fun. It's fun to see.

01:05:31

Speaking of fun. The Jacksonville Jaguars on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders who were favored by 1. The over under is 16 points. Just getting 30 9 and a half points. Andrew Catalan, Tiki Barber, Jason McCourty, and AJ Ross on the call.

01:05:47

It is Nacorkel Jones going up against Desmond Ridder, we think. Steve? Yeah. Your thoughts on this football game. Yeah.

01:05:58

I don't know how the the Raiders are favored, but gosh, man.

01:06:03

Big game for the the picks. Here's the dirty secret. I actually wish there was a couple games like this every week. This is the only 1 because I wanna save time on my tape watching, and I do not wanna watch this tape.

01:06:14

I know.

01:06:15

I feel comfortable about it. Sorry, Brian Thomas junior. I love you.

01:06:20

No. I I I

01:06:20

like the Jags on this. You know, I everything with the Raiders is is is not great. Even getting kicks blocked, punch blocked, things like that. I didn't get to action.

01:06:27

It's always Vegas and get it done. Actually the only game like this this week between 2 teams that are totally out of it, which you wouldn't expect because there's a lot of teams that are out of it, but each 1 is playing like, this is the only dead game.

01:06:38

Emphasize the totally out of it part. They've not just gone fishing. They are on

01:06:44

the boat in their gear. It's And yet if the Raiders win this game and their favorites

01:06:51

They're swimming.

01:06:51

Yeah. If they're favorites and they win this game, they could hurt their draft pick. I was about to say Giants are watching this game, and they're saying, let's go Jags. I'm sure.

01:07:01

I

01:07:01

mean, let's go Raiders. Jags lose it for us.

01:07:05

Not a lot of quit. Not a lot of quit in the Raiders team. We'll see, how things go. There, we'll move on in that game, which is a joy. To the game that at the start of the season, we had so much promise.

01:07:15

So much, in fact, that it's Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, and Tracy Wolfson

01:07:18

Woah.

01:07:18

On the call to see the San Francisco 40 niners go into Miami against the Dolphins who are a 1 point home favorite, Greg. The over under 44a half, they got stung by Derek Stingley's interceptions last week. They remained in that game. They've had some heartbreakers. They've been trying to get back in the picture.

01:07:36

How do you view the game?

01:07:37

We couldn't get a better game for CBS in the afternoon window. That's wild. I think people would rather see Josh Allen and Drake May just because Josh Allen is the story in the in the league right now. So I think they They

01:07:48

could assume the MetLife.

01:07:49

I think

01:07:49

they made Stafford against against Rodgers.

01:07:52

That that's true. That's early, though. Like, they I I would give Josh Allen that spot, but, you know, when they make these decisions a couple weeks ago, I guess they were hoping, for some more wins out of these 2 teams. The 40 niners actually of all the teams that are left, them and the saints have the lowest, chance to make the playoffs. They're they're right there at 1%.

01:08:11

So they they have a very good chance to get eliminated this week. I I am curious to see how Tua in this offense bounces back because last week's performance was so bad.

01:08:24

So bad.

01:08:24

And so out of nowhere after they were what I called on this offense, the most I mean, on this show, the most consistent unit in the league. They were they were the exact same every week. You watch the Dolphins. You knew what you were gonna get, and it was extremely efficient. That's why Tua was up there ahead.

01:08:39

Drake made success rate. And yet last week, they got it put to him. That was a defensive master class there by, D'Amico Ryans and and kinda humbled the this Dolphins team.

01:08:50

Well, and he humbled the coach who used to coach with up in San Francisco. So maybe, there were some things going on right there. Miami's bouncing back this week. I, I think, I mean, look, San Francisco's proud. They're going to go out there.

01:09:00

It's going to be a good game, but just too many injuries in the run game. Talking about Trent Williams is probably done for the season, at left tackle for the 49ers. I think Miami's offense gets going. Its defense. We'll do some things against the 40 niners.

01:09:13

I like Miami plus the 1 point that they're getting.

01:09:16

It it's gonna be tough. It the the passing game has to be short. They are they don't seem to be able to protect Tua long enough, to have the deep passing game. And if you wanna rush yards over expected stat, the Dolphins have negative 257 rush yards over expected on designed run this this season. No explosives.

01:09:38

It's they they they cannot run the ball. Even get Raheem Mostert, back in these, past couple weeks, and they haven't been able to do anything on the ground. And it's just all has to be to a operating quick passes right around the line of scrimmage. It's just tough. The

01:09:51

these teams are kinda mirror images of each other when you think about the high expectations on offense injuries, the offensive coaches. And Kyle Shanahan at least still has that running game. The the Dolphins not having a running game is 1 of the more surprising elements of the year, and I think Tua deserves some blame for last week too. I I think people wanna put it on just the offensive line and everything, but Trent Green in that game, he never criticizes anything, and he was pointing out some passes that he thought Tula was passing up, not not going down the field, and and I've seen some other analysts kinda look at the tape a little bit. And even on some place that he was protected, he he wasn't pulling the trigger, and whether whether it's a coaching point or who knows why, but that is just totally gone from their offense.

01:10:36

And so that that gives them a a small margin for error.

01:10:39

To my early season MVP can I'm just joking. I'm not gonna talk Baker m v Baker anymore, Greg. It's Sunday Night Football. It's Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4 point favorites against the scrappy late season push by the Dallas Cowboys. 48 and a half is the over under.

01:10:58

It's Sunday night. So Mike Tirico, Chris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark on the call. The cowboys broke our survivor hearts last week. Could they break the hearts of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are playing really good football right now, especially across the street last week at so far stadium?

01:11:13

Tampa's playing well. I I like him in this game, Dallas. I mean, they compete. I mean, ever since Micah Parsons come back, their defense has, has been good. It sucks about, overshone, getting that injury.

01:11:24

And I think, you know, Trey digs is out. So, I think baker could have another game. Mike Evans is, is doing the run game, getting both those guys going. I like Tampa bay. I like the points.

01:11:38

I don't know if Dallas is gonna put up a ton of points. He given the Cooper rush is shown by they're playing him over tree lands. I like I like the Buccaneers in this game. Go ahead and take another step to win that NFC South.

01:11:51

It's funny watching that cowboys game last week. I started thinking like, man, if Dak was on this team Yeah. It's funny how that works. You'll you'll lose a franchise quarterback, and and you don't have as much hope, but they've actually won a bunch of games now since he's got hurt. Because I I went back and I looked.

01:12:08

I was like, what games would they have won with him? Yeah. They lost. They got waxed by the Eagles. They got waxed by the Texans.

01:12:14

Maybe they would have been more competitive there. Maybe they would have beat the Bengals. That would have been the difference, because, yeah, Micah Parsons makes this pass rush alone 1 of the best pass rush in the league. That is how amazing a player he is. He was he has been my pick in back to back seasons before the seasons to be defensive player of the year.

01:12:33

It hasn't happened yet, and yet I feel like he is the best defensive player in the league. Like, he's my he if I could pick 1

01:12:41

impact is so significant.

01:12:42

I I still think he like, he's playing better right now if I could take someone for this week and for the last month than anyone in the league. It is Micah Parsons. Now he wasn't healthy enough that he's gonna get considered for that award, but that's how good he is. So who knows? May maybe he could scare up the Bucks.

01:12:57

I kinda doubt it.

01:12:58

Well, the the issue for for Dallas, and I think the the 1 big Dak on and off thing, I don't think the run game ever gets to where it is right now with Rico Dowdle if Dak's playing, because they wouldn't rely on it. That's a great point. Week 13, 122 yards. Week 14, a 131 yards. And then it gets Carolina.

01:13:16

Again, it's Carolina. It's a historically bad run defense, but a 149 yards from a Cowboys offense that didn't seem to be remotely interested in being able to run the ball at the start of the year. Great. Now that it's something that they can do, and what a time for it against the Bucks team where it's not a give up play anymore. Like, they're actually having success running the football.

01:13:36

Yeah. They they've been impressive really how that line has come together running the ball. Alright.

01:13:41

Was Zach Martin out too.

01:13:43

That'll be hard this week because the Bucks have played better run defense over the last 5 or 6 weeks, and then their blitz rate has gone from, like, normal bulls level, which is right at the top leg to just insane. They they blitz Justin Herbert 62% of the time last week. That's just crazy, man. And it's it's working. I don't know.

01:14:05

Like, they they've gotten it going a little bit defensively where they were a below average defense, and now they've gotten to average or better. And it's a lot of it is LaVonte David, actually. How about that? They just blitz him like crazy, and then they are the explosive play machine on offense. They they are the NFC's Ravens, which is crazy, because Baker's their quarterback.

01:14:27

But in terms of just, like, hitting 40, 50, 30 yard plays sorry. What? That was No.

01:14:33

They they gave, they gave Todd Bowles a giggle fit this week, because they they they asked about Baker and and his rushing and compared him to Josh Allen and Lamar and Jaden Daniels. And, coach Bowles was, like, well, maybe not maybe not those 3. And then he went into a a chuckle fit. He had a good time with that. Then they asked Baker about it, and, you know, he just wrapped himself with a scrappy runner.

01:14:55

He you know what? No. He's he's hit enough big running plays at really important moments. Last week, that that big run that he had against the chargers was an important run in that game, and he's making full field reads. I give him a lot of credit where he'll start on the left.

01:15:09

He so that's coaching, and that's maturation from from Baker. He he really is a great quarterback except, like, he'll make a handful of decisions that you're like, why did he do that? But other than that, like, he he's been awesome.

01:15:21

And and here's how how great he's really gonna show himself because he's gonna have another offensive coordinator next year too because Liam Cohen's probably gonna be on the shortlist of a lot of teams to get hired as a head coach next year as well.

01:15:32

I I really just want that quote graphic made. He really is a great quarterback. He really is. Greg Rosenthal on Baker Mayfield. We've got there.

01:15:40

We got there, and we've got to our final game of the season. It is Spencer Rattler and the New Orleans Saints on the road against the buzz saw that is these late season Toyotathon edition Green Bay Packers, who are favored by 14 and a half points. 42 is the over under. Joe, Troy, and Lisa on the call as it is Monday night football. No doubleheader and probably Steve, no shot for the saints.

01:16:06

They're they're right now. They are filming so many Christmas packages to run by the time they get to the Q4, Monday night football. Look, the Packers, you mentioned earlier, Greg, they are a team you don't wanna mess with. Defensively, they look I mean, they are so physical up front. Let's see what Rashawn Gary, linebackers are are doing.

01:16:26

And then offensively, Jordan Love. I mean, just everything that go I mean, the run game, this is gonna be so tough for New Orleans, a dome team going up here. Spencer Rattler faced some of the looks. But, you know, let's let's talk a little bit about Josh Jacobs. I mean, and what he's been able to do leading all of these veteran running backs who changed teams who are eating.

01:16:48

I'm happy for a guy like lot like Josh Jacobs because he's finally getting to taste some type of success. I mean, he was, like, nom de asemoir

01:16:57

Mhmm.

01:16:57

With

01:16:58

the Raiders, like, never playing on a team with a winning record, and now he's like, oh, this is what this feels like?

01:17:03

And they and they, I think, have recognized that he needs to be the foundation of their offense. Mhmm. Like, they came into that game last week, and they realized the week before that he wasn't central enough to their opening script, and they made sure it's all about Jacobs. And it's really interesting to see LaFleur and Jordan Love become

01:17:25

what

01:17:25

I would call a run first offense. It that Malik Willis stretch. I don't know if they would have Really good point. Been like that otherwise, but I think they're a run based offense in part because of that Malik Willis stretch.

01:17:36

It it it it kind of allowed him to get in the groove as a play caller with with this line, which has been together all season. They haven't had a lot of pieces to move around, and and Josh Jacobs being a part of that as well, central to the game, during that stretch. And then Love comes back, and I I don't think he was a 100% as he slowly got worked in. And so they had to lean on it a little bit more, and it's gotten to to the point where not in the same way of the Dallas Cowboys, but they they realized that this is this is where they can be successful in in running the ball. And they don't they do it in the shotgun.

01:18:11

They'll bring Jacobs in around in motion and have him stop for the do the same thing with Love and Pistol. It's so many different ways, which is why he's not in the Shanahan tree. Matt LaFleur is is his own

01:18:21

his own brain.

01:18:22

So glad Patrick was talking about this. With 22% 22% is all they get to understand. Yeah. So you're doing pistol. You're doing shotgun.

01:18:28

You do some offset stuff. That is not easy to do, to coordinate that between an offensive line, quarterback, and run back. Because you tip a lot more of your plays when you're in shotgun. Right? That's what teams will tell you.

01:18:39

Okay. We know in this situation, this is what they like to do. To be able to run out of shotgun is is really gonna open some things up for what LaFleur can do and this offense can do. So, I mean, that's such a great point when you said that 22%. I thought they were under center a lot more having that watch every moment of every game.

01:18:57

And love his numbers. He's only throwing the ball 25 times a week, but he's over 9 adjusted yards per attempt over the last month, which is sky high, which is, you know, higher than Lamar is who's leading the league in it for the season. So when he throws it, it's become efficient. And 1 thing I thought watching that last game is it took a minute, but I think they've sort of figured out everyone's roles at receiver. Like, Dobbs does what Dobbs does, and he's really good at it.

01:19:26

And and Christian Watson is adding a lot of value and making big plays, and he'll have 1 head scratching play a week for you, but, otherwise, he's really playing well. And then Jaden Reid is in the backfield with Jacobs. At least lately, they're playing 2 backs back there, and it's Emmanuel Wilson and Jacobs or it's Reed and Jacobs, and Reed is is doing all sorts of crazy stuff. He's not usually carrying the ball, but they'll let him carry the ball a handful of times too. And so you're right.

01:19:52

They just they throw so many things at you, and it's kinda like these young players. They are growing up. They just happen to be in the best division I've ever seen, or else we talk about them even more. Right?

01:20:02

Well, 2 2 backs. Now he's back in the Shanahan tree, Patrick.

01:20:05

Yeah. Yeah.

01:20:06

So It's 2 right. But it's 2 backs out of shotgun, and 1 of them is a wide like, a 170 pound wide receiver. It's crazy. On the Saints just for a second, Rattler and this is only, like, a local controversy, but there's, like, been conflicting reports. Ari and Rapaport says Derek Carr is very unlikely to return this season.

01:20:24

Right. There were, like, a local report from Nick Underhill that said Carr was kinda pushing and checking with all these different specialists and thinks maybe he could return. And even the coaching staff said he could play this week. And I I think it's unlikely, and maybe the the coaching staff is just throwing that out there. It's like, but why would you go back to Derek Carr right now anyways?

01:20:46

Like, can't don't we wanna take a look at this kid, Rattler? He did some fun things

01:20:50

last week. Yeah. I mean, I was talking to some folks past week, and they're like, Spencer Rattler's so talented. He just he's gotta get his head wrapped around a lot of things, but talent wise, that's somebody wanna get reps and see if they can handle it.

01:21:02

And Rizzi Ball, man. They're fun. We've got a 5 game sample. So if you're thinking about that 14 point line there, we got a 5.5 game sample, and we have 3 wins out of Rizzie Ball, and we have 2 other very competitive games against teams in the NFC that are right now in the playoffs, the Rams and the Commanders. So maybe that's a little high.

01:21:25

Maybe Rizzie Ball keeps him close. We got Cam Jordan out there making a lot of plays. Our our podcast NFL,

01:21:32

Davis looking great.

01:21:33

Yeah. Let's go.

01:21:34

With significant injuries

01:21:36

Right.

01:21:37

On both sides

01:21:37

of the ball. Right. So they're finding a way. I would stay away from

01:21:40

that.

01:21:40

I wouldn't I wouldn't wanna deal with the Unfortunately, and a half. Stress of a December 23rd Spencer Rattler, situation, but I would just stay away. Stay away. Just chill with your family.

01:21:50

Leave it alone.

01:21:51

Enjoy it. That's it. That's it for our show today. Weish, Patrick, you've done it again. Steve?

01:21:59

No survivor pick, though. No survivor pick. We didn't survive. That's why. Look, I don't think I don't think Steve's with us next week.

01:22:08

So when

01:22:09

No. I'll but watch me on Netflix.

01:22:10

Right. When it's when it's the last Steve Weiss game, before Christmas or or podcast. You know football is back. Yeah. We'll see you next time.

01:22:18

Enjoy Christmas, Steve.

AI Transcription provided by HappyScribe
Episode description

Gregg Rosenthal is joined by Patrick Claybon and Steve Wyche to preview all of the Week 16 action from around the NFL. 00:00 ...