Transcript of NFL Divisional Round Spread Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to NFL Daily, where we like our games big and our points spread small. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm in the Chris Westling podcast studio back with Cynthia Freeland, the best numbers man or woman in the business. We call this Man versus Machine. Cynthia, we've been picking three games all season long. We've only got seven games left in this entire season.

But they're big games. They are. It's It's not like they're seven. It's like seven big ones.

No. That's why this is the best weekend because you get four of those seven. You've been living with those teams for so long. I alluded to it in the intro. There are a lot of big point spreads this week, which I don't love. Divisional round week, you want them to be closer on paper, but you never know what you're going to get. That is especially true with our pics lately. I went one and two last week, Cynthia, and you went two and one.

We went ahead head-to-head on one.

So I knew-Yes, you got the Texans very right, and I got the chargers very wrong. We were both in on the Eagles and got that right. The Bucks, I It messed us up. If they were playing that game again this week, I would make the same pick, but it ultimately didn't work out. So very close. We're both now over 500, so you can't argue with that for the season. But I'm annoyed because picking literally every single game, which they keep track of on game day view, I'm 20 over picking every game. I'm somehow better off there. We're going to change the setup this week. Every week, we pick exactly three games. We're still going to do that. But since there's only four, we're going to go through all four, and we're going to each have one stay away. We each pick one stay away. We're going to just go in chronological order. Let's start with the Saturday afternoon game. It's Texans Chiefs. As we're recording this, the Chiefs are favored by eight and a half. Which way are you leaning?

Chiefs to win, but Texans with the points. Okay. That's what I think happens in this one. I think it's a nice... Just like before when they played, I don't know, not that long ago, it was a seven-point win. I think that's about right where it should be. I think it was 26 to 19 last time that they played. I think I have 20, 27, something like that. I think it's a Chiefs win. They're so healthy. That's my number one thing with this team. No No one's on the injury report compared to other teams, the lions. I'm wearing the shirt. That drives a win for me.

I don't know what to think about the rest versus the rust. This is unprecedented, the 25, 24 days He's still playing. And yet, ultimately, I think that's an advantage for the Chiefs. But I do think it's an advantage that the Texans, who are heavy underdogs here, just played in Arrowhead, and I think it was one of the Chiefs' best offensive performances of the year. And yet, until that tank Well, injury. They were going toe to toe, and I think they have to have some confidence. I'm with you. I'm going Texans plus eight and a half for this game. I'm even, as the week is going on, starting to convince me.

You're talking yourself into the Texan.

I am really talking myself I like it. I know they haven't lost the Arrowhead since Christmas of 2023. And yet, I do think the Texans are the best defense in the AFC, and it's versus an offense that was playing its best late in the season and figured things out, but overall struggled. I think that's a lower scoring game. I'm hoping that the Texans offense can join the party. We've had problems with them all year, and I think C. J. Stroud is capable of doing that. I think the monkey will be a little off their back. They'll feel good. They got a playoff when they're coming into it. They're rested from resting week 18, but then they're coming in. I don't know. I'm convincing myself.

I like it. Whatever. Talk yourself into it. I like it. You didn't even bring up Kamari Bill Asseter and Derek Stingley Jr. Having the number one and number two in terms of when they've been targeted in tight coverage, best corners in the league.

There you go. Yes. The Chiefs have been great going over the middle of the field, and you could do that with Kelsey certainly and Noah Great. But the Texans have been very good defending those plays, even though they're short a few players, Jelen Petrie, Justin Reid. But they've played well despite those injuries. All right, let's go to the Lions and Commanders. I'll start off here because I know you're feeling a certain way about this game I'm just a little nervous. If there's ever a play, every playoff game, you should be nervous for it. It's a divisional round game. Of course, it's going to be hard. But there's a reason the Lions are favored by eight and a half. This is my favorite pick of the entire week. Is the Lions covering that big spread? Here's why. When they play the Commander's defense, it's the biggest mismatch on divisional round weekend. Last week, I saw Baker Mayfield with a lot of time. I trust Jared Goff even more with a lot of time. I think that offensive line give some time. But even more important, this Commander's team is the worst team, according to next Gen stats, against runs under center in terms of success rate, in terms of giving up explosive runs.

Their second worst, what are the Lions's major in? That's what they major in. It's a light defense, too. I often see Jeremy Chin or Mike Sanra still. They're in the box as a third linebacker. I just think the Lions are too strong, too good offensively, not to put up 35 points in this game, and I think that's enough to cover the spread. They score between 35 and 40. Jaden has a fine game, and it's somewhere like 38 to 24. Let's go, Lyons.

Let's just go with yours. I actually have a closer game. It is my most confident in the week in terms of who wins, which is not a great place to be for me mentally. I like a hedge. I'm a banker. I come from not wanting to lose. Listen, this is-You're not a banker.

It's just nerve-wracking. You're not a banker. You're here. I know.

I used to be a banker. You are a talented broadcaster who's been getting it done. Questionable. But ultimately, I mean, look, I agree with you on all of those points, the under-center runs. Also, the O-line for... To me, O-lines are really, really predictive in the postseason even more so than the regular season. I just think that the lines O-line, which is knock on wood, like one of the areas where they're not as banged up. Taylor Decker should play not as banged up. I'm worried about Kevin Zitler not playing. I'm concerned about that. However, in this matchup, this is not the heaviest pressure team in the commanders. They have been bringing some pressure, but not like some of these other teams in the playoff.

I mean, calm down about it. Feel good.

People act like you've been there I'm like, We were here last year, but other than that, never.Okay, Marsha.I've never been here before.

Marsha and Latimor is not really getting it done so far for the commanders, so I think you have some mismatches on the outside.

I just like that Ammon Rase and Brown was like, Diami Brown was drafted ahead of me, and II like that locker room motivation.

That's another fun one. I just think I talked about it a little in the previous show. There are two teams at different points in their builds. This is a really mature Lion's team, and I feel like the commanders won their Super Bowl last season. Now, if you told me there's four minutes left in the game and the lions are only up six and Jay and Daniels have the ball, at that point, it all goes out the window. And not only are they not going to cover- Why are you doing this to me? I'm not feeling great because that young man is magical, and he has something really special. But you mentioned pass rush. The lions, I think they can maybe get home a little bit. Some weaknesses on that Washington O'Line at left tackle, Brandon Coleman. I've seen in week 18, the Cowboys attacked nick Allegretti, their guard. Some spots where maybe the lions can blitz and get home like they did against the Vikings. Let's move on to the Eagles.Yes, let's move on. And the Rams game. I think the two Sunday games are better, ultimately, on paper. Surprising what a big line this was.

When I first saw it early in the week, it's actually come down slightly, but not much. It's Eagles minus 6 right now over the Rams Which way are you leaning? To review, neither of us did a stay away in the first two games. That's right. Both of us went Texans and went Lion.

This is my stay away. Okay. In terms of the... I know the next game is the better one. It's mostly a pick-up, but that means that whoever I pick to win then is in the right spot. Anyways, this is my stay away from the line, not from the winner. I think the Eagles win this one, but I would be equally unsurprised if it was by one point or if it was by 10. We saw them They had a pretty massive win when they were out here in Los Angeles, but I still think there's something special about getting all the pieces on this Ram's offense together. There's some stat since the beginning of last season, like a third of the snaps is a total amount Not that they played together, they being Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Cup, and of course, Pukeuna Kua. So I think there's something, but it's going to be cold. It's outside, obviously. It's going to be angry. We know Philadelphia is not the... You go in, it's not the warm and friendly confines. It's an angry situation. I think that the secondary of the Rams is way, way, way more vulnerable than we saw from Minnesota.

But in Minnesota, there's no time for Sam Donald to pass.

When you have one quarterback that you trust a lot more than the other, and I trust Matthew Stafford more in this game than Jalen Hertz, it's tough to give away six points. All the points you make are really strong in terms of you want to stay away and you don't know how it's going to turn out. And yet when I thought about, you got to pick three out of four games here, I actually do feel pretty good about the Eagles. Good.

I mean, my model has seven points.

Six is a lot, and I don't love doing that, but I am taking the Eagles to cover the six. Now, I got some grief from Ram's fans after our preview.

Your daughter.

She does not listen to our preview show. She is a, I'm going to watch the three hours of the game and be intense and be clapping really loud, and then she's going to unplug from all coverage until the next game. That's smart.

That's a great way to-She's so healthy.

A great way to fan.

What a healthy dad. Good job.

But some Rams fans weren't happy because we had on Bo Wolf who covers the Eagles, and it was an Eagles leaning pod. And look, we cover the Rams as much as any team around here. Maybe more. Especially in this studio. And I felt like we covered them a lot after the Monday night game. And ultimately, I do think the Eagles are the more fascinating team here because they've spent years building a roster this good, and they could get upset. The Rams have that magic. They They have the coach, they have the quarterback. It could happen. But when I look at this matchup, I do think the first meeting is really instructive. My number one question is, can these players hold up on a cold day against this Eagles's O-line, just run after run after run, including Jalen Hertz.

They're a great O-line. I mean, that's why I think Eagles win. But like I said, I think the score could be all over the place.

I tend to agree. I think it's a high-variance game, and Ram's fans will be in my mention. And getting after me if they do win. But these are the players I'm thinking about. You mentioned the cornerbacks, where we'll see if Jalen Hertz can actually deliver the ball, but that's a mismatch on the outside for Devante Smith, AJ Brown, who's back at practice on Thursday. Dallas got her mispracticed, but it was with an illness, which generally, you would think he'll be okay by Sunday.

I actually think if you're even a little ill, you should get the heck out of there. Stop infecting people.

People in our place should do that, too. Locker room, not the situation. You do not want to entirely sick. No. But the Rams are going all the way East. They haven't been as great in general in the Stafford era outside.

Arizona is more east of Los Angeles.

That's an indoor situation. It's the defense. It's these players, Christian Roseboom, Braden Fisk, much better stopping the pass. Sometimes you can run on him a little bit. Byron Young, not the biggest guy on the edge. Now, Neville Gallamore is a guy who's playing a lot for them. I think about that matchup and the Eagles just leaning on them, and I can't get that game. I believe it was week 12 out of my head. So I think offensively, that's the big mismatch, Eagles's run game. On the other side, we'll see. We'll see. Can Stafford still beat a great defense in the playoffs? I think it's possible, but this is a great defense. All right, let's go to the last game here. This is your stay away. This is my stay away.

It should be my stay away, but I thought it'd be more fun to not to pick it.

Okay, I'm just going to explain why I'm staying away. I picked the bills to win the Super Bowl before the season. At this point, it just feels ridiculous to go off that. That's cowardly. You just stay with it. And yet I do feel like the Ravens very best game is the best game in the NFL. Now, can they play their best game for straight weeks? No, that's not how football works normally. I think the Bills, their baseline is a little higher. Maybe there's more variants with the Ravens. Some of Lamar's playoff showings do affect me a little bit. And so my My head leans slightly Ravens, but I think the bills having the home game is enough for me that I feel good about sticking with my preseason pick, and I do pick the bills. But ultimately, I just am saying to fans out there who are thinking whether to bet this game or not. I don't know. This is as good as football gets. If you're like me-If you need something to make this more exciting-Right. If you're like me and you just do on the stress and you enjoy it way more when there's nothing on the line, just enjoy this game.

That's what I'm going to do. I'm staying away.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, for this game, for me, the fact that the bills are home underdogs, what? I don't understand that.

I agree. I think the bill should be about minus one and a half. Probably just flip it, right? I didn't even mention the Ravens are favored by one and a half on the road.

That's why I'm more comfortable. That's why I fated the other game because I don't know. I figured you were going to fade this last one since we both didn't take any game on Saturday. So whatever. I just wanted to be a little different and more fun. But anyways, the thing that's interesting for me in this one is a flowers availability. So far, as of recording this episode, he has not been seen in the open portion of practice. I love that, like very specific, open whatever. But he hasn't been seen. The thing about Zay flowers, and I'm going to say this, let's see if I can say this as nice as possible. He's a BC alum, just like me. So he It doesn't run the most precise routes, and sometimes chaos is good. Like in poker, you never want to be predictable. You don't want people to know your rules. You don't want people to know your... Well, good news. I don't even think Zay flowers knows his predictability Both, right? So that actually against this past defense, I think is an advantage. If he's not playing, Rashaad Bateman is a much more precise route runner.

Now, Christian Benford is very good in that secondary, but I have some questions about the rest of the secondary for the Bills. Because of those questions, you can get gut. However, if you're going to start following rules like running a precise route and being right with it, heck, they can figure it out. They can jump your route. They can learn a little bit more. You have a better chance of it. But if you're zigzagging all over, Hey, That is interesting, in my opinion. The other thing that I like, your girl loves jumbo, and I love how the bills use jumbo more than anyone else, meaning they bring in the extra offensive lineman. Number 70, Alec Anderson is his name. If you want to become friends with him on Facebook, I'm sure, or whatever. I'm sure he's not on X Blue Sky or whatever, because sometimes those guys don't have a ton of followers. He probably could be your friend on those things. But anyways, I think it's fun to watch them play in those heavy personnel formations. This is where Josh Allen has to be the MVP, because Lamar Jackson could rely on Derek Henry.

I remember that game, 35 to 10. We all remember Derek Henry ran rough shot over them. We got it. They're not going to give him light boxes or even neutral boxes as often in this one. They gave it to him three times in that game. Why? I don't know. They're going to go heavier to stop Derek Henry and force Lamar Jackson to pass on them.

Yeah, I think that's the biggest advantage for the Ravens. Got into it with Brian Baldinger, your friend. Love Baldy. On our preview show. I do think the size and the consistency with which they can run the ball is the biggest problem for Buffalo, who's a little bit smaller of a defense. Yeah, I will look into becoming friends with Alec Andrews. You should.

If anyone, could it be you?

He seems nasty, though. He's one when you flip. He's playing past the whistle. You know how they say play to the whistle? He's playing a little past the whistle.

That's what you want in your 6th- You know what I love that? Baldy.

Yes, that's what you want in your sixth offensive lineman.

That's how I act, too. Yes, you do. I got to see one One of my friends, Matthias, Kewnuka, he was in town last week. Colleen and I were hung out with him, which was very funny because the size discrepancy was hysterical. Anyways, I got Matthias to agree that I'm giving big mean defensive back energy I'm undersized. We got it. Okay.mean defensive back.Yeah. That's me. Playing through the whistle, man. I'm Kirby Joseph. I'm Brian Branch. Let's go.

I'm more Chauncey Gardner Johnson.Oh, you are definitely.That's who I want to be. That's who I want to be. A little crap talking. Mouthy and annoying.Not annoying. Maybe inconsistent, too, but we'll pop up with some big points.

No, no, no. His teammates love him. The other team doesn't like him so much, but his teammates love him.

It is tricky. We're taping this Thursday afternoon, and Zee flowers hasn't practiced. You're right, that's a huge... Just think about last year's AFC Championship game, if he had just held on to the ball there, his big plays were the reason that they were coming back in that game, and he does something that the rest of the team just can't do. I love that chaos theory that you're bringing. He's a little bit of the-I'm going to go learn how to play really good poker. Yeah, he's the basic guy at the poker table that actually messes with the experts because they-And everyone gets really mad because he doesn't follow the rules. You can't do that. Look, you are taking the bills. I'm on your side with that one, too. Oh, great. I have the bills winning, but I am staying away.

Are we aligned on everything this week unless you take the Texans?

We'll see. The Rams, Eagles. I have the Eagles covering the six points. You're staying away. You basically agree with me there. I agree with you. I just want to be different somewhere. We're both taking the lions and Texas Chief. We're probably just stepping into it, both taking the Texans on the regional round weekend against the Chief. What could go wrong? Let's get out of here. We only have two more of these the rest of the season, but we will be back.

What are you going to do with all your extra time?

I don't know, but we don't have it yet because we're actually going to be back on Saturday night, recapping those two divisional round games. Jordan Rodriegue of the Athletic will be joining me for that show. And yes, when we're playing games that are going to be remembered for the rest of the time when Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are creating six unfortunate months of legacy talk, you know football is back, back Saturday.