Transcript of WHO WILL WIN 2024 MOST VALUABLE PLAYER? | NFL Research Investigates

What does a man need to win MVP?

This is a close race. Who should win the most valuable player? Make up your mind. Who is your MVP?

You could look at Joe Burrow and say he's playing better than anybody in the National Football League.

Just otherworldly from Burrow. Listen, Lamar Jackson is the only pick. Absolutely amazing. What a throw by Jackson. When you talk about the most valuable player, it should be Saquon Barkley. There he goes. Saquon Barkley showing the speed. He'll take it all the way.

If I'm picking one, I'm picking Josh Alex.

It is showtime in Buffalo. That didn't just happen.

You're still here? I've been here all night. I can't believe.

Yeah, this MVP case might be the toughest we've ever been assigned.

Somewhere in here is the MVP.

I'm with you, man, but why don't we just name one? How about Jared Goff? You love Jared Goff.

Jared Goff is great. The first player in NFL history with a completion percentage of 80 % or higher in five games in a single season.

You did it. We solved the case of the 2024 MVP.

No, you don't understand. It's not that simple. There are so many other factors to consider when determining a player's impact on their team.

But you have Ten guys here. How could we ever go through all of them in time?

Based on what we know, it has to be one of these four players. So I'll start with the reigning MVP. He threw him away like a ragdowel, and he throws in The end zone. Caught. Caught for a countdown. When it comes to assessing Lamar Jackson's 2024 season, the first category that jumps out are the numbers that he put up this year.

On paper, Lamar had 45 total touch downs, divided between 41 passing and four rushing with only four interceptions.

He consistently made plays when his team needed him to. His 74 carries, 447 rushing yards, and 25 first down on QB runs all led the lead. And his A 119. 6 pass rating led all quarterbacks and marked the fourth highest single-season pass rating in history.

The next closest was Jared Goff at 111. 8.

That's right. And his stats are only most impressive when put in the context of the next category. Lamar Jackson's season storyline is his evolution as a quarterback. We've come a long way from him being referred to as a running back, but this season really put that tale to rest. And you don't need to look very far to see Lamar's growth as a passer. Jackson threw for a career high 4,172 yards, beating his previous MVP season numbers by a wide margin. And these passing improvements are directly correlated to his efficiency and improvement on play recognition. He threw for a league leading 9. 6 yards per attempt when opposing defenses played the same safety shell coverage as they did pre-snap.

Oh, man, that mark was one yard higher than the next closest option.

Yeah, and he ranked first in pass rating against and without pressure, and second against the blitz. And Jackson's EPA per dropback was substantially high, outpacing Gop and Allen 162. 2 to 144 and 133. 3.

Keep in mind, six of the last eight QBs who led the league in dropback EPA, one MVP.

Now, let's take a look at his season from a milestone and record-breaking standpoint. Jackson achieved a lot of feats that have never been done before. Not only did Lamar become the first player in NFL history with 40 plus passing touchdowns in over 600 rushing yards, he became the first player to pass for 4,000 yards and have over 800 rushing yards in a season. He also became the first ever reigning MVP to throw 40 countdown passes the year after he won the award. And against the Giants, Lamar had his sixth career game of five shutdowns and no interceptions, which pushed him to third all time.

Dang, that's only behind Bradley and Brees.

It was also the seventh game in his career where he finished with as many or more passing touchdowns, five as in completions, four breaking his tie with Drew Brees and Peyton Manning for the most ever. And as the cherry on top to his career, he also broke Michael Vick's record for career rushing yards by a quarterback, which he will surely set to a nearly impossible pace for anyone else.

When I think about previous piece, I remember the iconic plays they had. So why don't you show some of the plays where he looked like the best player on the planet?

They show Blitz, they bring Four. Jackson Jackson throws on the run to feed Danny Brummin in. Inbound clock runs at the 11-yard line. Final half minute. From Jackson to Andrews. Play action for Jackson. Pump. Jackson steps on the breaks, extending the play, throws end zone. Touchdown. Isiah likely. Lamar Jackson making magic in each town. What was able to do. I mean, he's rattled off some big runs seemingly every week. Here's a home run shot for Beatman. Touchdown, Ravens. Justice Hill in the backfield. Send him out to the right. Jackson backing He gets up, backing away under pressure. Down the sideline, he goes. Lamar Jackson, can he stay in bounds all the way? He stopped inside the one. Name somebody else right now who can do that. Nobody. Ball at the 40. Good protection, air it out. Bateman downfield, and he has got it for the You saw the flag. That call is against the chargers, and this countdown will stand.

It's as good a running back as we've seen.

Jackson will keep this time. And look at the speed. Lamar Jackson is gone. Touchdown, LeMar Christmas, 48 yards. So again, a rookie is back there for him, Cole Bishop, number 24. Here's a first down throw down the field and open down to the one-yard line. It's Bateman. Yeah.

So he's had an undeniably incredible season. But when evaluating this case, I think it's important to look at every single angle. So tell me a reason why he may not be the MVP.

The biggest knock on Jackson's MVP case is the talent around him. It's hard to diminish the value of Derek Henry. And while they both definitely help each other, you can't overlook how important Henry is to the Ravens offense.

Yeah, that makes sense. Tell me about our next candidate. He got it. And there he goes inside to 10 to 5. Oh, the play of the year in the NFL.

2024 stands out to me as Josh Allen's most impressive year, statistically, because of his ability to limit the turnovers. When looking at the numbers, Allen blew past his previous season lows in terms of interceptions.

Oh, interesting. It doesn't look like his safer playing style limited his explosiveness at all, though.

Yeah, that's right. He accrued 41 total shutdowns between 28 passing, 12 rushing and one receiving. When looking historically at Alan's 2024 season, he set MVP-level marks in numerous areas.

Josh Allen's six games with two plus passing touchdowns and more than one rushing are the most in a single season in League history.

He is the first quarterback in NFL history to have 40 or more touch downs, less than eight turnovers, and less than 20 sacs. He also became the first QB ever to pass, rush, and receive a countdown in the same game.

It says here that he set the Bills franchise record for total touchdowns and rushing touchdowns.

Yeah, and excluding Week 18, where he just played one snap, perhaps most impressively, the Bills averaged three points per drive, which marks top five in NFL history a feat that only three other NFL offenses since 2000 have done, which includes the 2007 Patriots, 2018 Chiefs, and 2020 Packers, all of whom's quarterbacks went on to win the MVP that season.

The Bills' season's storyline has been about overcoming change and exceeding expectations, which fully fell on the shoulders of Allen.

Allen accounted for 72. 2% of the Bills' offense compared to Lamar's 68. 9%. He elevated squad to 13 wins without a 1,000-yard receiver and running back before reaching Week 18. And the Bills became the first team in history with more than 30 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns in a season. And they tied an NFL record with eight consecutive games of 30 plus points. And in the two most important games of the season, Josh Allen played his best football. He took down the number one seed in both conferences, producing 747 total yards, six touchdowns, and he wasn't sacked once.

Okay, so what stood out to as his iconic moments from this season?

Allen protected for the moment. Now has to escape. Everything's covered. Josh waits to the last day. He's in downfield Shaq here is open. What a throw by Allen. Shaq here to the three. What a play by Josh Allen to keep it alive. Just when you think you have this place figured out, since tonight's wind is opposite of the way it normally Flags fly. Allen able to get out of the end zone and fire. He's got his man and a juggling catch by Ray Davis. Second and 11. Pressure. Got it away deep. Cawks. Oh, he adjusted for a second long catch of the first half of Amari Cooper. And two. Closing This is the kick. Corderback's legs. Bakes left, now taken off. Going to run for it. He got it. And there he goes. Inside the 10, the 5. Oh, the play of the year in the NFL. 85% of the targets to Shaq here completed. This is behind Cooper, who brought it in. He pitched it back to Allen, who's going to go on the goal line and get in. No. Spectacular TD. Oh, my goodness. Big play here. Trying to go up top for it.

He wants to run for it, Jim. He wants to just go get in his legs. He's trying to find-It wasn't there, so now he's got to throw it deep to the end zone. Was that caught? Yes. Ty Johnson He breaks it off the ground, above the ground for the countdown. On second and 10, down the field for the big ball to the end zone. It is caught. Holland's able to hold on 34 yards in a strike from Josh Allen.

When looking at the counter in terms of Allen's MVP case, it all comes down to his competitions in terms of MVP candidacy and opponents. Josh Allen does not lead in any of the major categories when it comes to passing. He's behind Lamar and Burrow in passing touch downs in yards, and is behind Lamar and Goff in completion percentage, pass rating, and EPA. And in terms of their literal opponents, the Bills only played six teams with winning records throughout the regular season, the least when compared to the Eagles seven, Bangles and lions nine, and Ravens 10.

Okay, I see. I see. Well, let's move on to our next MVP candidate.

He lost the block. Burrow going deep. He's got him. Touchdown. Jamar Chase.

Context is crucial when defining Joe Burrow's MVP consideration as it helps build his best pace to win the award. With Burrow, we have to look at the bad before the good. The Bangles 2024 season centered around coming up just short. They started off one and four to begin the year, and despite finishing nine and eight, were unable to reach the playoffs. However, the weekly The weaknesses within their team only helped to reveal Burro's strengths as an individual and provide him his best case to be the MVP. Burro's storyline was about playing the hero. The Bangles defense ranked 25th in the league, 27th when the team was leading. They allowed the seventh-most points per game and allowed the third most touch downs. As an offense, the Bangles ranked 30th in rushing yards per game and 27th in the rush success rate, and their offensive line was ranked 29th, according to Pro Football Network. Burrow sustained 48 sacks compared to Goff's 31, Lamar's 23, and Allen's 14. Yet despite these conditions, seven of their eight losses were one-score games, and they finished the year on a five-game win streak. And this is mainly because Burro was on an absolute heater, consistently rising in the biggest moments.

When trailing by one score, Burrow was at his most efficient with a pass rating of 126. 4, throwing 12 shutdowns to zero interceptions. And in the fourth quarter of games within seven points, he flexed a 110. 8 pass rating with seven shutdowns to one interception. Joe Burrow accounted for 78. 9% of the Bangles' offense, the highest in the NFL. He had over 5,000 total yards and 45 total touch downs, leading the league in passing yards and touch downs. He ranked third in pass rating.

One slot behind Goff.

Yeah, that's right. Fourth in completion percentage. Two slots behind Goff. Okay. And he was second in completion percentage, over expected.

Only one slot ahead of headache off.

Yeah, that's also true. He also led the number one ranked passing offense with 272. 9 passing yards per game. All right, all right.

Just tell me about his season and how it held up in terms of NFL history.

Burrow became the fourth QB in NFL history to have 10 games with 250 plus passing yards and three passing touchdowns in a single season. The three other won 12 plus games and the NFL MVP. And Burrow became tied for the second longest streak of three plus passing touchdowns with eight straight games. Despite not always getting the same recognition for his athleticism as Alan or Jackson, Burrow displayed plenty of MVP caliber moments.

Lavelle Edwards, the late LaVelle Edwards, who won a national championship B-Y-U. Here's right back going long, and they find the rookie, Burton. Jermaine Burton. Well, they told us last night, We're going to need him this week. Burro airs it out. Chase. Hello. Touchdown, Cincinnati. First and 10. Lossed the bat, Karras the snap, lost the block. Burrow going deep. He's got him. Touchdown. Jamar Chase. Flag has been thrown. A flag back at the 47. 41-yard, touch down reception. Chase, Higgins, and Kisicki all at the bottom of the screen. Joe take it off. Oh, he's got a ton of room. Might take it all the way. Inside the 10, Burrow to the pylon. He He's in for the countdown. Everybody to the left. Burrow takes off to the right. So many fourth-quarter leads in recent years. And tonight, turning it set on a dime. Burrow going deep, getting free. Chase, look at this. Just like that. And Chase is going to get him struck to the one-yard line. Crowd doesn't like that. I think that's a response to what Lamar Jackson did. Charges actually past the Ravens who they'll play in the Harba Bowl on Monday night here in Sofa.

Fourth and two, Burrow. Deep shot. Higgins is open. Got it. Down. Cincinnati right back in it. We have barely played eight minutes. Burrow pocket collapses Burrow, stumbling and just masterfully gets it to Higgins. Just otherworldly from Burrow. Joe Burrow, second down in 10. They bring the linebackers going deep. He's looking for Higgins who makes the catch He's rising in bounds. Yes, he was. Oh, what a beauty.

While Burrow's regular season came to an early end, his MVP case lives on.

Yeah, well, let's break down the last candidate we haven't talked And he's going to go on the way. What a night. What a season.

What a player.

Saquon's first year in Philly will go down as one of the greatest runningback seasons in history. Before fully diving into his season, there's one number that stands out when making his case. 2005 rushing yards places Barkley at eighth all time for rushing yards in a season.

That makes him one of nine players ever to break the 2K rushing mark.

Yeah, it's extremely difficult.

So I assume he led the league in rushing yards?

Yeah, and he ranked first in rushing yards per game and rushing yards over expected. He also finished second in terms of yards per carry and yards after contact per game amongst all runningbacks. Historically, he was on pace to beat the all-time rushing record set by Eric Dickerson prior to sitting at Week 18.

Yeah, but he would have had to play an extra game over Dickerson.

That's true, but he was He's actually on pace despite having 34 fewer carries than Dickerson. He also set the Eagles franchise records for rushing yards in a game and broke the franchise single-season rushing record as well. But when talking to Saquon about his 2024 season, he probably wouldn't tell you that it's his numbers that are his favorite part. Not many people were able to fully embody the term get back as much as Barkley did this year. After not being paid by his former team, the New York Giants, Barkley refuted that decision by signing with their division rival of the Philadelphia Eagles and helped lead them to a 14 and three record.

Yeah, that was second in the NFC, though, right? Behind golf in the lines, 15 and two?

Yeah, that's correct. But Barkley's addition and impact can't be understated. He accounted for 34. 8 % of the Eagles's offense, the highest in the league by any non-quarterback. And when games mattered most, Barkley became the ultimate closer. In the second half of games this season, Barkley averaged 77. 8 rushing yards per game, the most in the past 30 years. His 6. 7 yards per carry marked second in that same time frame.

His first miss sets up the Eagles now at the end of the third. Hand off Barkley. Barkley Look out. Home run. Saquon Barkley has that big playability. He got his head in the box. Let's not lose. It's been the guy today, seven catches, his best game. Here's Barkley, Saquon Barkley. Saquon Barkley. Saquon Barkley is the guy. He's going to take it. Touchdown from 65. Saquon saves the day for Philly on the board early in the fourth. Burden 6 for Philadelphia. Hertz has time. Now locates Barkley out of the backfield. Barkley slips two tackles and picks up the first down, chipping up in the air to the 30. A gain of 14 for Barkley. Their adjustments will wait. It's the Eagles beginning at their own 30 with Saquon Barkley as the running back. You said it, Chris. Big opening Berkley lets loose. Saquon will take in the distance. Touchdown. Terrific blocking up front, and Barkley goes 70 to extend the lead.

Only if it's wide open, you keep running.

118 yards and adding to it. Here goes Berkley into the clear through the snow all the way home. He's hit another home run against the Rans. And this one might send them to the Championship game. Here's Barkley, a little shovel, looking for an edge, gets it. Saquon Barkley, first down. Barkley, Oh. Saquon, breakdown.

When it comes to discussing the case against Barkley, the elephant in the room is his position. It's hard to argue a case against players who touch the ball every snap, but that should not take away from the season Barkley's had and the impact he's made on team, and it definitely doesn't hurt his MVP case from an impactful standpoint.

All right. Thanks for all this. You've really laid out all of their individual cases well. You've given me a lot to think about, and I do think we have the necessary information here to decide who wins 2024 MVP.

Well, thanks for taking the time to listen. Truth be told, it comes down to which category you think matters most when determining this award. That being said, I will not rest until I have cracked this case..