Transcript of Jared Diamond Returns (on the science of leadership)

Welcome, welcome, welcome to Armchair Expert, experts on expert. I'm Dan Shepherd, and I'm joined by Lily Padman.

Hi.

Today we have, which is a great honor, for the second time, but this time in the flesh, Jared Diamond. Jared Diamond is a scientist, a historian, a professor, and a Pulitzer Prize-winning author. I mean, this guy started in the physiology department, then he became the head of the geography department. Talk about a polymath. He's an ornithologist.

I mean, he's one of the smartest people we've talked to.

Yeah, he really is. most famous book, of course, legendary Guns, Germs, and Steel. If you have not read that book, it is phenomenal. Everyone should read that book. Collapse, The Third Chimpanzee, The World Until Yesterday, Upheaval, and his new book out now called Prophets, Profits, Coaches, and Kings: When Do Leaders Matter?

This was so interesting.

It's so fascinating. Spoiler, there's not one thing that we can predict An effective leader.

An effective leader.

There's many, many things that contribute to whether or not they are. Please enjoy Jared Diamond. Oh my goodness, you're already here.

Yes, I am.

How are you, sir?

I'm good. How are you? Good.

Wonderful to see you in real life.

Hi.

How are you?

Last time we were Zoom.

Yeah, we were.

I think we were Zoom.

I think.

If you recall. Yes, I do. My sons reminded me.

Oh, good, good, good.

That's their role in your life? I have 2 daughters that I'm hoping will take over much of my cognition as I get older.

How old are your daughters?

11 and 13.

You are in the eye of the storm.

Thank you for saying that. I feel a little alone in the eye of the storm currently.

We got through it okay. We have twins. They're 39 years old.

Oh, wow.

Nothing terrible went wrong. In their teens, they wanted more to spend time with their friends and not just alone with their boring parents.

Yeah.

Eventually, when they were permitted to bring along their friends, they tolerated their boring parents. Yeah.

Right. Jared, I'm so happy to have you in person as— an anthro major at your school. Of course, Guns, Germs, and Steel. It's in the Selfish Gene Bible-like canon of things we worship. And so it was a great honor to interview you the first time, but we were over Zoom and now we get to sit together.

Yeah.

As if I got to take one of your classes in real life.

Uh-huh, yeah.

So your first huge book was, as I just said, Guns, Germs, and Steel. It really addressed this question of why were Europeans so successful at taking over the rest of the planet? Were they the product of great special men, or were they simply the recipients of great geography, which is what the conclusion of the book was, right?

Right. In effect, why are you and I now talking English on the land of Native Americans instead of in London, they're talking Nahuatl, the language of the Aztec Empire? Why'd it turn out that way?

Right. But this book now is interestingly kind of coming at a similar question, which is leaders. What makes a great leader? How relevant are leaders? Are they, as Tolstoy said, are they the passengers of history? Or are they like Carlyle said, history has been shaped by great men? Which is true? And if so, when and why is it true? And when and why is it not true? Is that a succinct premise of the book?

Exactly. The book is not about which is true. It's instead a typical Jared Diamond response. It depends. And so I look at factors. There are about 6 factors that enable one to explain why leaders, some do or don't make a difference.

We'll get to go through a lot of specific leaders in 4 different domains: politics, history, sports, religion, and business. These are the 4 silos we're gonna evaluate leadership, right? But I think first we should know what are the factors that we think contribute to First of all, timing, being at the right time and place.

Some leaders can control their time and place. Bill Gates, when he saw the COVID issue of Popular Electronics in— what was it— January 1976, he had been talking with Paul Allen about developing a personal computer, but kept telling Paul, the time isn't right. And when he saw that cover, he said, now is the right time. We've got to act fast. So some leaders choose their time and place. Some leaders are lucky. Can't choose their time and place, but they recognize they're at the right time and place. So I see the finest hour of Winston Churchill. Winston Churchill, in the concluding paragraph of Gathering Storm, the first of those 6 volumes, Churchill said when he had been appointed Prime Minister, I knew that this was the moment towards which my life had been pointing. He didn't make that. It was the week of Dunkirk. Churchill did not cause Germany to invade France, but Germany's invasion of France did result in Chamberlain's resigning and Churchill becoming Prime Minister. So he knew it was the right time, but he didn't make it. And then finally, Mark Zuckerberg was at the right time and place, but he didn't know it.

He was born in 1984 for reasons beyond his control.

Yeah.

The result was that he was a sophomore at Harvard in 2004, which, because of changes in the internet— there had been social media before— and that was the perfect time to have found big social media.

And he was at the perfect location. Harvard had this cachet. People wanted the Harvard edu. You know, there was a lot of layers on it.

You're exactly right. So time and place is one factor. Another factor is what in the book I call discretion, which does not mean behaving discreetly, but means having the power to make decisions. For example, mayors have much less power to make decisions than do governors. Governors have less power than do presidents. Democratic presidents have less power than do dictators. Democratic presidents in wartime have more power than in peacetime. Or in the business world, it's interesting. CEOs of public utilities don't have much power because public utilities are tightly regulated. The CEOs with the greatest power are CEOs of perfume companies and teenage t-shirt companies.

Hmm.

A friend of mine is the CEO of a teenage t-shirt company. He's a billionaire because when he recognizes what will be the trend 2 weeks from now, he has the complete power to churn out those t-shirts, so he's a billionaire.

You point out that if you're the CEO of some power or water system, the innovation's happened. You're pretty much overseeing a system that has probably made most of the changes it's ever gonna make. There's not gonna be a lot of crucial pivots that have to be made. So yeah, the more cutting-edge the technology, the more flexible the company has to be, then those CEOs are much more relevant.

Right. Even in sports, on the average, a coach of a college team has more discretion than the coach of a professional team because with a professional team, the players are there for longer, they have more power, and the professional team has an owner and a general manager. So on the average, college coaches have more discretion. That's a third factor.

So timing and place, discretion, how much power do you actually have?

A fourth consideration is whether or not you are the founder, the founder of a country like George Washington or Lee Kuan Yew. The founder of a country sets the institutions for good or bad that are likely to continue for quite a while. So founders, and similarly founders in the business world, have more discretion. That's a fourth factor. Fifth factor is that a leader who sees that the public should be doing something that the public doesn't want to do, but convinces, gets the public to do it. Franklin Roosevelt recognized that the United States had to prepare for war, but the American public did not want to prepare for war. But because he saw it and he gradually nudged the government in that direction, he had more influence than a leader who was doing what the public wanted.

The thing I find most impressive in the list is the leader who can convince people to do things they don't want to do. That to me seems Like a very esteemable triumph if you can convince people to do things they don't want.

Well, esteemable if it's a good thing that they're trying to get them to do.

True, true, true. In the FDR sense.

And you know, another example, Charles de Gaulle. De Gaulle, the last thing the French wanted to do in 1958 was to pull out of Algeria. But de Gaulle recognized that they had to pull out of Algeria, and he got to do it in a tricky way. He began by saying, we will not pull out of Algeria until After there had been no terrorist acts for 9 months. And then he said, we're not gonna get out of Algeria until there have been no terrorist acts for 5 months. So eventually he said, and now we're getting out of Algeria. So he got the French to do what they didn't want to do. Then finally, the last thing on my list of 6 is that a leader who does not have outstanding colleagues— Clement Attlee produced the biggest change in social policies in Britain. in the 20th century, but he's not nearly as famous as Winston Churchill because Clement Attlee had about 5 cabinet members, all of whom were skilled and talented, and they shared the glory. If Attlee hadn't done it, one of those 5 would have done it. So that's a 6th reason. If you have the misfortune, each of you, to have an outstanding colleague—

Yes, yes, yes, we're going to have to share that glory. which we do. But we left out the most important one that comes up most often in the book, I think, which is this thing you label the Hamlet test. So explain the Hamlet test.

The Hamlet test is a test that leaders rarely pass. People think, well, he or she, she or he is the only person who could do it. Well, in a country of 340 million people, the United States, it's hard to make an argument that Jeff Bezos was the only one of 340 million Americans who could found Amazon. But in the case of Botswana, a tiny colony of 1 million, where at the time of independence there were only 22 college graduates.

They had 7 miles of paved road in the entire country.

That's right. And on top of that, of those 22 college graduates, Seretse Khama was the chief of the most powerful tribe And so he was the only chief who could get away with abolishing the power of the chiefs. And on top of that, it was on his tribe's land that were found the diamonds that made the wealth of Botswana. So he was the only chief who could get away with giving away the tribe's diamonds and saying that they were national treasures.

He was both the president and the chief of this very important tribe. So yes, he had to have so many things.

That's similar to the competition one, I feel like, or sharing the glory. It's like, if it's only you—

And you're the only person. So then the reason you call it the Hamlet Test, and I don't know that people would necessarily know this history, but explain why Hamlet is relevant.

Sure. People will necessarily not know the history. Hamlet is often regarded as the greatest play in English literature. So Shakespeare wrote Hamlet. Was Shakespeare the only person who could write Hamlet? Well, in this case, I call it the Hamlet Test because this is one of those rare cases where there aren't another 340 million people to consider. To write Hamlet. First of all, you had to have a track record of writing other plays first. Hamlet was Shakespeare's 22nd play, and he'd already written good plays like Romeo and Juliet and Julius Caesar. But also, to write Hamlet, you had to have a London theater company, and Shakespeare had the best theater company and best theater in London. So there were only about 2 dozen outstanding Elizabethan dramatists. We know every one of them, and we've got their plays, so we can read their plays and decide whether their plays were as good as Hamlet. None of them wrote plays that are as good as Hamlet. So that's why I call it the Hamlet test. We know all of the other candidates, whereas in the case of Jeff Bezos, we can't name all 340 million Americans who might have done what he did.

Yeah.

Right. Okay. So let's start where the book kind of starts. And this is, again, probably not a very well-known story about Hitler, but in 1930, years before he becomes chancellor, he is being driven in a car. in the passenger seat by a chauffeur, and a large truck that is speeding towards them. The impact seems inevitable. The chauffeur floors it. They narrowly avoid what would've probably been the death of Adolf Hitler years before he was chancellor. So then this brings this tasty question, would Germany have had this trajectory without Adolf Hitler? How do we work through this counterfactual fantasy?

So, I was born in 1937, which means that I grew up in the world of Hitler. And on top of that, my family's from Europe on both sides. My wife is from Poland, the last of my family in Europe, and half of my wife's family in Poland disappeared in the Holocaust. In the case of my wife's family, we know that one of them died. My wife's father's father was killed on the train to Auschwitz. My wife's mother survived Auschwitz with legacies. So, in the case of Hitler, historians debate, would World War II and the Holocaust have happened if there had not been Hitler? They write biographies. The trouble with writing biographies is all biographers have to recount the same facts. And most biographers conclude he made a difference. But then A.J.P. Taylor, perhaps the best-known British historian of the postwar period, concluded, using the same facts, Hitler was a normal German politician who did what any German politician would have done. And so Hitler did not make a difference. Biographers would argue that Hitler did make a difference because he was way out of line in his antisemitism. There were plenty of German antisemites, but none proposed industrial-scale genocide.

extermination. He was the most charismatic speaker for good or for evil. He was infinitely above even Winston Churchill in his charisma. He also was amazingly skilled as a deceiver of people. He's famous for having deceived Neville Chamberlain at Munich, but on top of it, he deceived German industrialists, and he deceived German generals, and he deceived his fellow Nazis. He was a great Deceiver. So those are the reasons why most biographers believe that Hitler made a difference, but A.J.P. Taylor didn't. So how can one settle it? The method that can bring conclusions is the method that I call natural experiments. So I trained in medical physiology. I worked in the laboratory. Chemists, molecular biologists, phys— they work in the laboratory and they discover things by means of controlled, manipulative experiments, meaning you got 2 batches of test tubes and one you pour dye in and the other you don't pour. You've set up the experiment yourself. If we social scientists were permitted to do such experiments, I would run around since World War II killing 47 prime ministers and not killing 200 prime ministers. And then I would do the statistics and quickly I would know whether prime ministers made a difference.

Well, that's not nice and it's illegal and it's immoral, but— History has done that experiment for me, namely since World War II, There have been 47 prime ministers who died natural deaths of cancer and heart disease, and Harold Holt drowned. And then there are about 200 prime ministers who didn't die natural deaths. But we can compare the outcomes, and the numbers are so high that we can do statistics on it. Or in the business world, if I wanted to see whether CEOs make a difference, I could experimentally kill CEOs, but is not nice, but let's be less drastic. Instead of killing CEOs, we will kill their first-degree relatives. If CEOs make a difference, they'll get upset.

Yes.

But if CEOs don't make a difference, who cares whether they get upset? And in fact, it happens. When the spouse or the only child of a CEO dies, the CEO really gets upset and the business income goes way down. The next worst is if A sibling of a CEO dies, the CEO gets upset but not quite upset, and yes, these earnings go down proportionally.

Interesting. Oh, here, the punchline of this is amazing.

If a parent dies, you get upset, but you expect parents to die, so the earnings go down but less. If your in-law dies—

Oh no! Your mother-in-law or your father-in-law.

If mother-in-law dies, that's the only death which produces that increase in earnings. But, but— The sample size is small, the effect is small, and it's not quite statistically significant.

That's very funny.

But what it means is that without being permitted to do the manipulative experiment, we can analyze the natural experiment that relatives of various degrees of closeness die. And those deaths— psychologists will tell us that some of those deaths are a bigger blow than other deaths. So that's the natural experiment.

So let's go through some of the columns. We touched on it for a second, but if we start with politics and history, I cannot pronounce his name, but—

Saretsi Kama.

Saretsi Kama, who we talked about, I think, sufficiently. If we added up the fact that he was the first president of a brand new nation that was incredibly poor, didn't have a lot of college-educated folks, didn't have paved roads, had no foreseeable access to money or resources. He's unique. He makes some unique decisions. Yeah, he keeps around some British administrators that have a lot of experience with administration and bureaucracy. That's kind of a rare choice that he makes. Once they discover the diamonds, as we talked about, he is in this position to grant all of those mineral rights to the people of the country. He proves that he's an extraordinary leader in that he has unusually high discretion. Anything he says pretty much goes. And crucial decisions, plus some favorable circumstances and perfect timing, makes him an enormously impactful individual. And then maybe to counter him, let's talk about Rachel Carson. Who is Rachel Carson?

The 2 science books in the last 170 years that made the biggest impact on the world were Darwin's Origin of Species, Rachel Carson's Silent Spring. Rachel Carson's book Silent Spring about the damage to lands and to animals and to people caused by toxic chemicals, jump-started the environmental revolution. Now, Rachel Carson was unique. She passed the Hamlet test as Saretsikamma. She was uniquely qualified to do it because she was a scientist, so other scientists answered her letters. From childhood on, she wrote prose, but she read the prose back to herself. She listened to it. So she was a writer, but she was also a poet whose writing style is still the most beautiful writing style of scientists today.

She could have just been a beautiful novelist, but also had this biology background.

Right. Compared to the best of the science writers, Richard Dawkins, who is terrific, Paul Ehrlich, who was terrific, Rachel Carson's writing style is still much better because she read it back and she listened to it with the ear of a poet. 2 other advantages of Rachel Carson: she was not a university professor. In those days, If you were a university professor writing for the public, that was really bad because it meant you're writing for the public because your career is washed up and you're prostituting yourself, so you turn to writing for the public. It's still the case today.

Really?

The only time UCLA denied me a promotion was when I won the Pulitzer Prize.

Oh my God.

Which proved that I was prostituted.

What? That's crazy.

It is crazy, but that's academia.

Can you answer the psychology behind that? I mean, I understand publishing in peer-reviewed journals and that that's the high watermark for anyone under their employ. They're trying to get their university to have massive cachet, so the more peer-reviewed journals published, the higher that rises. But why does a book for the public diminish that?

Partly it's envy.

Sure.

So someone who writes a successful book for the public is doing what other academics would like to do, although they won't admit it. And it's also the case that there's a belief that if you're writing a book for the public, it's because you can no longer write good papers that get 32 citations in the Journal of Planetary Earth Science. And nobody reads it. And nobody reads it except 31 other planetary scientists. So there's a feeling that if you're writing a book for the public, you're doing it because you're all washed up. And since you're all washed up, you prostitute yourself. But Rachel Carson, with her beautiful writing style, A man who wrote with a beautiful writing style, who wrote like a poet, everybody would be suspicious about that man.

Oh, yeah.

Whereas Rachel Carson is a woman. It's okay for a woman to write with a beautiful writing style. And so, for all those reasons, Rachel Carson, I think, passes the Hamlet test, was uniquely qualified to write Silent Spring.

Also, what was relevant is she really exposed DDT as being the big chemical that we later found out was what was killing, right, the bald eagles. And so, that gets to Kennedy, this book, and then all of a sudden, All of a sudden we have the EPA and we do outlaw DDT, which is great.

In the case of— in the business world, do you drink pomegranate juice?

I don't personally, but I'm very, very aware of it.

Pomegranates were domesticated something like 4,000 BC. They've been around for a long time. Yes, you can get juice out of them in Middle Eastern markets. Until the year 2002, there was no pomegranate juice industry in the US. In the Middle East, you could go to a Saturday market, and the salesman would cut open a pomegranate and squeeze a glass of pomegranate. But there was no pomegranate juice industry. The reason is that they're hard. Much of the medical benefit and much of the flavor is in the rind.

Ah.

But you can't do it like an orange, cutting it in half and squeeze it. Instead, to make pomegranate juice, you need literally a 3-story press that can grind this really hard stuff and pomegranates being Mediterranean climate plant, pomegranates were grown in the United States only in California, and there were about 22 pomegranate farmers in California. Of those 22 pomegranate farmers, 21 were ordinary poor farmers, so they did not launch a pomegranate juice industry. But Linda Resnick ran a company, successful company. She had lots of money. Her husband invested some of the money in the pomegranate juice industry.

And she was a very successful woman.

buying acreage in the Central Valley so that they're now the largest agricultural landowners in California. And he discovered that on his land were 125 pomegranate trees about which he knew nothing. But Linda Resnick read about them and learned that they might have medical value. So she invests $150 million in learning what the medical value is.

Oh.

And then they build this 3-story press because they've got other products. So in 2002, they launched the pomegranate juice industry, whereupon Coca-Cola and Nestlé jump in and start producing fake pomegranate juice. So they spend another $120 million suing Coca-Cola and so on in the Supreme Court.

Yeah.

These other 22 farmers, first of all, they don't have the $150 million. But on top of that, they have tiny fractions of the market. Even if they had $150 million, it wouldn't be worth spending $150 million if you only have a tiny fraction of the market. But the resonance had produced half the pomegranate juice in the United States. Plus, they had the money. Plus, their company was not a public stock company whose stockholders would've said, for heaven's sakes, don't waste our money on pomegranate juice.

Yeah, on some unproven beverage in the already oversaturated beverage market.

That's right. They controlled their money. And so, it took them 18 years to make a profit on it. It was not a way to get rich. They got rich in other ways. But they passed the Hamlet test because out of those 22 pomegranate farmers, They were the only ones who controlled enough of the market and who had enough money and who had the money themselves, not as a stock company, that they could lose money on pomegranates for 18 years.

Yeah, there's likely never a pomegranate beverage without her. She has this kink about finding medicinal outcomes for existing, right, plants and fruits. Like, you gotta have her weird interest in that to then bring this thing to market. Stay tuned for more Armchair Expert, if you dare. We get support from YouTube Premium. Okay, I gotta tell you something. I just got YouTube Premium this year, and it's completely enhanced how I use YouTube. I already liked YouTube for obvious reasons. I'm watching all my car stuff on there.

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Checking Allstate first could save you hundreds on car insurance. Not checking your teeth before walking into a meeting You smiled at 6 people in the hallway confidently, full teeth. You felt great about it until you caught your reflection and realized you'd been carrying a piece of spinach like an accessory since lunch. Yeah, checking first is a good idea. So check Allstate first for an auto quote. It could save you hundreds. You're in good hands with Allstate. Potential savings vary subject to terms, conditions, and availability. Allstate North American Insurance Company and Affiliates, Northbrook, Illinois. Before we move into businesses, I just wanna say or ask you, you do survey 22 modern political leaders, Churchill, Mandela, Mao, Idi Amin, a bunch. What patterns emerge when you look at these 22 modern political leaders?

Certainly all of them had discretion. Some of them were wartime leaders, Winston Churchill. Some of them were founders, Nelson Mandela and Lee Kuan Yew. Those are things shared among them. But there was one thing shared among them that I hadn't expected. I noticed when I went over the table. Of those 22 founders, there were only 2 who retired voluntarily, Nelson Mandela and Lee Kuan Yew. And what was that? The other 20 founders didn't retire voluntarily. They committed suicide like Hitler, or they got assassinated like Anwar Sadat, or they got voted out of office like Winston Churchill. So, what it means is that once you become an outstanding political leader, and you've developed a high opinion of yourself, you're not likely to lose that high opinion of yourself and step down voluntarily. That was a surprise for me.

Yeah, that's interesting.

Yeah, it's a good bit of knowledge that we should keep in mind if and when we ever get a charismatic leader that we don't like. that we all love, we need to go, and this person will never show themselves the way out. I mean, that's part of the reason we have term limits, right, on presidents. But it's why they're so crucial, because we know none of them will leave voluntarily.

Well, 2 out of 20— 2 out of 22. But Nelson Mandela, he was 90 years old, and Lee Kuan Yew, he'd been in office for 40 years. 40 years is enough.

Yeah, I mean, they left, but come on. I mean, they also didn't leave. Okay, so when we look at business, you have Bezos, Zuckerberg, Gates, and Musk not passing the Hamlet test.

None of them passed the Hamlet test.

Let me be clear, I don't enjoy this man's personality, but I have to say, after reading the book on Elon Musk—

Walter Isaacson.

By Walter Isaacson, I find him largely repugnant, but also any industry he has entered He has had impossible success. When you're reading that book, you're thinking Tesla, but you're forgetting that he started OpenAI. He also has SpaceX, which is the most successful. And then he had prior to that the money exchange thing he had. You don't think he's unique in his Shakespearean skill set?

If he is, it's impossible to prove it because whereas Shakespeare was one of, what, 20 Elizabethan dramatists, Elon Musk, he was He was one of 320 million Americans. How can you go through all of those 320 million Americans the way you can go through the 21 other Shakespearean dramatists? And one by one you say, no, he couldn't, she couldn't, he—

But we have 10,000 known engineers, mechanical engineers.

By all means, in your spare time, please go through those 10,000 mechanical engineers. It'll be more difficult than going through Shakespeare's 21 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

It doesn't please me to announce this, but I do think he is an Edison-like figure.

That's possible.

Yeah, but there's also other competitors in the market, so it's not like Tesla's the only one. If it was still the only one, maybe you could say that, but I feel like it still was a revolution apart from him.

Yeah, I mean, SpaceX is still one of one. You've got Bezos trying to do it, but SpaceX is very one of one. And then the satellite network he's somehow launching, I mean, it's astronomical what this one human being has accomplished. But maybe in history, through the lens of history, we will be better able to gauge whether or not he was an Edison or just at the right place at the right time.

Right. And of the other Big Four, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, et cetera, they were all undoubtedly very talented people. Were they less outstanding, less unique than Elon Musk? Maybe, but it's not possible to make the argument the way you can for Shakespeare, unless in your remaining years you wish to go through those 10,000 of them again.

No, I'm far too into boating. Okay, so you took a very quantitative look at whether CEOs matter. We scratched it a little bit, but let's talk about when CEOs die, what happens. We have some good data on that.

When CEOs die, the best data set is for Denmark. It's a small country. There are only 76,000 businesses in Denmark, 76,000 CEOs. A professor at Copenhagen Business School, since he went through 76,000, you go there with your 10,000. So when CEOs die, the business earnings drop. That's on the average.

Like 13% within 2 years is the number in the book.

Something like that. Yeah, showing that CEOs have some effect. But is the CEO the only person who affects the earnings of a company? And there it's clear, no. Again, these professors at business schools have looked at the factors that affect company earnings, and there are 4. Perhaps the first thing you would think of is the year. 1930 was a bad year to run a stock company in the United States, the year of the Depression.

Yeah.

a good year in the United States. So the year makes a difference. Second thing that makes the difference, of course, is the company. Procter& Gamble has been a very well-run company for 150 years, and CEO after CEO— there are some industries that are profitable. When you do the statistics, it turns out that the CEO and the individual company and the industry are roughly equal in accounting for roughly 1/3 of profits. And the individual year, despite 1930, on the average accounts for only between 1% and 6% of profits. So that's a case where statisticians can break down the relative importance of those 4 factors. And conclusion, if a CEO comes along And says, my business has made $100 billion this year, so the least you can do is pay me a lousy few billion dollars. I'm the only person who could have done it. The response to that is, on the average, you account for 1/3 of company earnings, but that's on the average. Maybe you're the CEO who accounts for 80% of company earnings, but stockholders shouldn't routinely swallow the line that CEOs account for most of company owner. They don't. Some do, but most don't.

In most cases, we can say, certainly one can debate Elon Musk, but in the other Big 4, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg—

Or even Steve Jobs, who— Even Steve Jobs. Kind of a— what would we describe people's feeling about him? He's a mythical— he has kind of a mythical aura.

Despite their undoubted talents. The fact is that other people founded successful companies in their spheres. Their companies ran in different ways. So what one can say about these Big Five, even Elon Musk, is that at minimum, they put their stamp on the way an industry operated. Other people also were successful in the industry, but they ran in a different way. And for example, so there were companies that tried to sell everything before Jeff Bezos.

Yeah, Sears and Roebuck, Kmart, Walmart. eBay.

But they operated in a different way. They didn't operate online. And then after Bezos, Walmart then got into the everything store. So what one can say about him and about all 5 of them is that they may not have passed the Hamlet test, but what they did do is put their stamp on on an industry caused an industry to develop in a distinctive way. How can leaders make a difference? Some leaders can uniquely do something that nobody else could have done at all. Shakespeare with Hamlet, Linda Resnick. But most leaders achieve something that other leaders could have achieved, but the leaders achieved it in a distinctive way and put their stamp on a country or on a business.

Right.

I mean, that's good. It means more people have that option. If everyone has to pass the Hamlet test, that's not possible.

Yeah.

Let's talk about sports. And this is fun for both of us. So, let's talk about John Wooden. Will you talk a little bit about him and what he accomplished at UCLA?

Sure. John Wooden is generally regarded as the greatest coach in American sports in the last century, and maybe the greatest coach in any country. Before John Wooden, I was born in 1937, so the major sports when I was growing up were Baseball— I was in the ear— Boston, the great Ted Williams, and football. Basketball was a comparatively minor sport. John Wooden gets a large share of the credit for making basketball a major sport up there with football. He was a master of detail. The detail that he went to— not only did he teach his players how to dribble, he taught them how to roll up their socks. It makes a difference how you roll up your socks. His practices, they went for 2 and a half or 3 hours, and he would tell his players, run that play. And then at the end, he would say, run it again faster. Run it again faster, faster, faster.

The practices were faster than the game by design.

That's right.

Yeah, interesting.

Which is crazy. You practice a little lighter than you play the game in general.

He emphasized being in peak physical condition. So when UCLA played against Duke for the NCAA. Duke's players averaged 6'8. UCLA players averaged 6'4. But UCLA players could jump higher than Duke players, so UCLA won. He was a great psychologist. He understood individual players. On top of that, he was great at getting people to work together. But then perhaps the most important thing about him, that in fact his own players emphasized, they said, yes, he was a great basketball coach, but he was the most important person in my life other than my mother and father. Because for him, basketball wasn't a game. Basketball was a metaphor for life. And so what his players learned out of playing basketball was, yes, to achieve success in basketball, but also to achieve success in life. And that's something that you can't fake. Yes, there were other great basketball coaches, Bobby Knight, who was not a nice person, as was John Wooden. But nobody would say that Bobby Knight was a metaphor for how to operate public. Yeah.

How to handle oneself in public. Yeah, a couple unique things he did. Well, first of all, he won 10 national championships, which is bonkers. But he, unlike these other dictators who— and this will be towards the end, we learn they fail because there's no feedback for them. He was in a position to be in quite strong-headed. But when they had a losing season, he went back to the drawing board, made this realization that these subs weren't playing enough minutes to be good. And when he had a player like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, he changed the game to suit him. He was flexible and was endlessly on a path of kind of discovery and curiosity. And I think that's quite unique about him. He could have gotten set in his ways and said, no, no, I know how to win. Kareem, you'll play the way I play. You know?

He was a thinking coach. And as you say, in that, I think it was 14th year at UCLA, when his team did not well, instead of blaming his players, he spent a lot of time figuring out what had gone wrong.

Okay, and now you take down these universities in a very fun way, which is, now statistically, how much do coaches change outcomes? Let's talk about the actual power of the coach.

The number is similar to that 30% for CEOs. Coaches make a difference, but they don't make the entire difference as they think. What other things make a difference? Having a great player with your team, but that's not enough. The amount of money that the school puts in. Alabama puts huge amounts of money into their football team. UCLA doesn't. Alabama pays its coach 3 times what UCLA pays its coach.

The facilities.

UCLA has a much better basketball court, Pauley Pavilion, than does USC, so— but USC has better football practice facilities, with the result that USC is better in football and UCLA is better in basketball. All of which means that the coaches make a difference, but they don't make an overwhelming difference. And the proof of this is that if UCLA's chancellor and if UCLA's athletic director had seen fit to ask me or to read my book, our athletic department would not now be $155 million in debt from having fired basketball coach after coach after coach after coach.

And you gotta buy out their contract.

That's bad.

And then you get into this incredible statistic in the book, which is, when researchers compare poorly performing teams that fire their coach with equally poor teams that retain theirs, both groups tend to improve by roughly the same amount.

That's right. It's like throwing dice. There's no skill involved in getting 6s. It's pure chance. Coaches make some difference, but they're closer to the throwing dice end.

Because they're already great. The coach UCLA brings in presumably is already top-tier coach.

Presumably. And in fact, our basketball coaches, I think all of our basketball coaches since John Wooden have had winning records of, like, 65 or 70%. Any other school would be thrilled out of their minds to have every one of our basketball coaches, every one of whom we fired.

100% of the coaches since Wooden have been fired.

That's crazy.

They didn't live up to Wooden.

Part of it is the culture too, right? Like, in the South, football is the culture. So schools are gonna put a lot of money in there because they make a lot of money there.

But I have to add to that that UCLA, football and basketball coaches were the highest paid or the second highest paid employees of the state of California.

Oh my God.

Of the whole state?

Of the whole state. Of all employees of the state of California. And our chancellor, the salary of our chancellor is 1/10 of the salary of our basketball and football coaches. That tells you something.

Well, it tells you that Adam Smith Smith was right, and market forces are strong. Okay, let's talk about religion, because religion, to me, seems like the greatest place to evaluate charisma. Yeah, because obviously, most religions, if not all, were started by a charismatic prophet who was claiming some kind of revelation. So let's start with Joseph Smith. Let's talk about him a little bit.

Joseph Smith, founder of Mormon religion. But let's place him in context. So within the last 200 years, there have 4 new religions that have spread around the world.

Which are they?

Mormon religion, Seventh-day Adventists, Jehovah's Witnesses, and Christian Science. All 4 of those are American religions. But there have been new religions founded in other places. The Mahdi of the Sudan in the late 1800s founded a new religion which expanded over Northeast Africa, but didn't expand around the world. Why is it that all 4 of the new religions of the last 150 years that have spread worldwide or American religion. I think that it's a no-brainer. The United States had the economic power, and we eventually had the military power. The Mormon religion— every Mormon man and Mormon women have the option, but every Mormon man is required to spend 2 years of his life at age 18 proselytizing.

On mission.

And if he doesn't have much money, then you go on mission 70 miles away. But if you do have enough money, you go overseas to Europe and to the Pacific. And that's enabled the Mormon religion, because it's derived from the wealthy United States, to become a worldwide religion. Now, it's true that the founders of all 4 of those religions were charismatic. In other spheres of leadership, charisma's not the only way to become an effective leader. Augusto Pinochet, the vile dictator of Chile, he was not charismatic in the least. Or Stalin, not charismatic. They terrified people. So they were charismatic. There are other ways besides charisma to become a leader in politics, but in religion, the only way to start becoming a leader is to be charismatic. But charisma isn't enough. There are all these charismatic New Guineans and others who found religions in New Guinea, but their religions don't go anywhere. For religion to go somewhere, the religion has to have what I'd call an economic and demographic engine. The leader of a religion, or leaders, need at least 2 qualities and maybe 3. You have to have charisma or you go nowhere. You also have to be or have a great organizer.

So the Christian religion, Christ wasn't a great organizer. I mean, he was killed too early. We don't know how he would have been as an organizer.

I heard his room was messy.

St. Paul was the organizer of Christianity. In the case of Islam, their Muhammad was not only a charismatic, but he was a great organizer. And in the case of the Mahdi of the Sudan, he was a fantastic organizer as well as charismatic. The third thing that a religion may need is it may need a general and an army, because religions often face resistance. The Christians did not attempt to fight back because the Roman army was too strong, but the Mormon religion did fight back. The Mormon religion had its own army. The Mormons were not the only religion to have its own army.

Brigham Young. Stay tuned for more Armchair Expert, if you dare.

After the death of Joseph Smith, Brigham Young became the organizer.

Yeah, you say in the book, Joseph Smith gets a lot of the credit and the acknowledgement, but without Brigham Young, he's the one who really takes it to a place where we can have the infrastructure, and have the mission and have the capital and resources. Like, Joseph needs him, or we don't really have Mormonism, probably.

That's right. This just illustrates then that religion needs charismatic founder, absolutely, needs an organizer, absolutely. And sometimes it also needs an army and a general. And in a few cases, the Mahdi of the Sudan and then Muhammad, those two fulfilled all 3 roles. Muhammad, he was an outstanding organizer, an outstanding general, as well as charismatic founder. And similarly, the Mahdi. But in the case of Christianity, the only one of the 3 roles that Christ fulfilled was the charismatic founder. St. Paul was the organizer, and eventually—

The Roman state was the military.

That's right.

What about Jim Jones? Let's talk about him. He's always fun to talk about.

You say cults have that similar trajectory. Yeah.

Jim Jones was a charismatic— I never met him, but he was described as a charismatic religious leader.

I didn't know till reading your book, I didn't realize he was quite legitimate before he was a cult leader.

He played a large role in integrating Indianapolis. He was admired because he was anti-racist. He led the movement to desegregate Indianapolis. And so he attracted idealistic people. When he moved to California again, he attracted idealistic people. So he had his positive side. His negative sides were that he eventually went crazy. He was a sexual predator. He was economically dishonest.

He was a drug abuser.

He drove his entire group to suicide. But he was a charismatic person who was also an outstanding organizer. Was he a general? Close to it. He didn't fight in the United States, but he certainly ensured that Jonestown was well protected militarily.

Yeah, they were well armed, as I recall from the documentary. Let's talk about really quick in our natural experiment that we flirted with at the beginning, comparing 83 heads of state assassinated since the Second World War with the far larger number of 140 who died of cancer and heart disease. What do we find when these great leaders die? Or consequential leaders, I don't know if I'll say great. What happens when they die?

What we find when they die depends upon what the social scientist who did the study is interested in looking at. Namely, the natural experiment gives you a database, and then you can mine that database for anything. So for example, if you compare prime ministers who die of natural death, die of cancer, With prime ministers who don't die of cancer, you can compare and you can ask multiple questions. Jones and Olson, the first question they asked was, do leaders make a difference economically? And when a leader dies, does the economy of the country suffer or does it improve? So Jones and Olson asked about the effect of leader death on the economy. What they found was that if you compared The economy 2 years later after the death of a leader with the economy 2 years later after the non-death of a leader, the leader stays in place. On the average, the economy stays the same because half of economies get better and half of economies get worse because some leaders are good for the economy and some leaders are bad for the economy. When Mao and when the founding leader of Mozambique, when they died, The economy got better.

Those were leaders whose deaths improved the economy. So you can use that database to look at the effects on the economy. Another thing, if a leader dies and this is wartime, does the death of a leader make it more likely that the war will come to an end? And it turns out that if the leader is a dictator and a dictator dies during wartime, then it is more likely that the war will come to an end because a wartime dictator knows that if the war carries on and he loses the war, he's gonna be killed like Mussolini, get killed in an awful way.

It's not hard to imagine that if Putin had a heart attack tomorrow morning, that the course of Kyiv would be much different. The Ukraine war would probably come to a resolution in the absence of Putin.

I agree with you, and I'm not permitted to do that experiment.

Yes.

Killing Putin But on top of that, the experiment hasn't happened yet as a natural experiment. But we shall see.

Yeah.

Okay, 2 last things. One is, when do leaders matter? And this is an example of discretion plus timing. There are fun examples where it's like, it doesn't really matter how profound your point of view is or your discovery. If you're not timing it correctly, it doesn't really matter. We have some crazy examples from science, do we not?

So, continental drift and plate tectonics. If you look at a map of the world, you look at the east coast of South America and the west coast of Africa, they fit very well. Suspiciously well.

Yeah, yeah.

Which led Alfred Wegener, a German climatologist, to postulate that the continents had drifted. And it's not just the fit of South America to Africa suggests— the evidence was somewhat limited. He could not think of a mechanism that would enable continents to drift. He suggested the continents drifted because of the rotation of the Earth.

Mm-hmm.

But it became easy to do the numbers and it doesn't work. So Wegener died on an expedition to Greenland in 1930, and he was widely disbelieved. This is something I remember because I was a postdoc at Harvard from 1962 to 1966, just at the time that continental drift was Oh, wow. There were many things that proved it. The 2 most important things that proved it were lines of seafloor spreading, magnetic reversals, and the other thing was the discovery of magma upwelling, this amazing discovery.

Is this where 2 plates are joining, there's a gap, and the magma spurts out? That's right.

It was one of my colleagues at Harvard in 1962 who was the first to see with deep underwater vehicles, the first to see on these lines the bubbling up of—

Welds, really.

Magma. So, Wegener had the right idea, but at the wrong time. The evidence for it came out in the 1960s. And again, the foundation of genetics— genetics was founded by Austrian monk Mendel, published his paper in 1868. He had it absolutely right, but it was ignored. Not until 1900 3 scientists independently were doing similar experiments, and they all rediscovered Mendel's. But Mendel in 1868, it was the wrong time. The world was not ready for Mendel. But the world was ready for these other 3 people in 1900.

Okay, so it's hard not to imagine that you wrote Prophets, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings: When Do Leaders Matter? You wrote it in a certain time and place, and that time and place obviously is at a moment where we have great polarization. We have a very polarizing president. When you, or do you, are you willing to run Trump through these 6 criteria? And what things do you think he's doing well at? And which ones do we think prevent him from being an incredibly impactful leader?

I did not run Trump, nor did I run Angela Merkel through my criteria. In fact, I said, I will look only at leaders whose careers have come to an end, because we can pass judgment. In the last couple of years, our view of Angela Merkel has changed greatly.

For the better or worse? I'm unaware of this.

For the worse. It's not that she was an evil person, but it's now regarded that her decision to bring 1 or 2 million refugees into Germany— she was praised for it. She said, wir schaffen es, we can do it. Just admirable. But now—

Well, they have a far-right rising currently.

We have a far-right rising party, and it's now recognized that yes, it was a noble thing to do, but pragmatically it was not a good idea for Germany economically. So that's the reason why I don't discuss any political leader whose career hasn't come to a close.

That makes sense.

That's totally fair.

So business schools, including UCLA Business School, justify their charging tuition of $60,000 to $100,000. Business schools say, we will teach you how to be a successful CEO, and the way to be a successful CEO is by being charismatic. Well, the trouble is that there are many different ways to be a successful CEO, just as there are many different ways to be a successful politician. Charisma is one way, but there are political leaders, and there are business leaders who've not been charismatic. Other ways to be successful are to be a master of detail, to terrify people, being a good discussion leader, being able to pick good followers.

Feedback's gotta be important, right? 'Cause as you say, this is the downfall of all dictators, is they are no longer subject to feedback. Yeah.

This is something that I know from my own experience running a laboratory, because for 40 years I ran a laboratory doing manipulative experiments on the gallbladder and intestine in the UCLA Physiology Department. I had about 5 students. The students were all naturally younger than I, and that meant that they had been trained more recently than I. And my students didn't hesitate to tell me, Jared, you are out of date. We've learned more recently, and we've got the better method, so step aside. And I learned to shut up.

Wow.

Yeah.

That's hard to do.

Well, Jared, I gotta say, it is, again, an enormous honor to get to talk to you. Do you turn 90 next year?

I'll be 89 tomorrow.

Oh my gosh, happy birthday! Tomorrow? Okay, so a year and a day away from 90.

Oh, that's exciting.

Yeah, what a life. I mean, I still love from your first one, he won the MacArthur Foundation prize, and they were quickly really bummed out that they gave it to him because they found out all he was going to do is continue to look at gallbladders. It's such a joy to get to have some of your time, and I really, really loved your book. You're a very fun writer. There's nothing too dense or academic about it. It's just a very pleasurable book full of lots of funny and fun historical anecdotes. It's a great example I do think we, just philosophically speaking, I don't know if this is an American thing or a West thing where we prize individuality. I do think we overinflate in general. And if you could say, is there any conclusion at the end of this, studying this? We overinflate how much one person can change the country, the economy, all these incredibly dynamic forces on the planet. Do we not overestimate what one person can do, or do we have it right?

On the whole, I would say in politics, certainly in the United States, and probably in most, most democracies, yes, Yes, we exaggerate what even a prime minister is capable of doing. It's really hard to change the economy. And if the economy is going well, we give the president credit. And if it's going poorly, we vote against the president. But it is hard for the president to change the economy. It's even harder for a governor. And it's hardest of all for a mayor to change the economy.

Yeah. And you might take office on the day they announce a global pandemic. What now? How effective can that one person be in that situation? Well, again, what a pleasure. Jared Diamond, please read Prophets, Prophets, Coaches and Kings: When Do Leaders Matter? It's wonderful. I hope we get to talk to you again on your next book.

Thank you. Yeah, I do lots of interviews, so I know there are different interviewers, and it's a great pleasure to be interviewed by you two. You've done your homework. You express yourself vividly. You understand these matters. You ask good questions. So for me, it's a pleasure to do this interview. Go Bruins!

Oh, no.

He is an armchair expert, but he makes mistakes all the time. Thank God Monica's here. She's gonna let him have the facts.

Whoo!

I gotta tell you.

Tell me.

Last night, I did about 90 minutes of booking things. We're going to see Metallica.

Oh, yeah.

At the Sphere. I'm so excited. And then I was like, what else are we gonna do? We're gonna be there for 2 nights.

Ooh.

So I got a reservation at my favorite steakhouse for night of the Metallica show. And then Wabi Wab helped me get a reservation for Best Friend.

Oh, nice. Oh, Roy Charles.

And then how about this left curveball? You coming? You listening?

I'm here.

I'm like, Cirque du Soleil, let's do that Friday night. Go on to get tickets for Mystère. That's my favorite. I've seen it 8 times.

Uh-huh. Great show.

I don't think the boys The boys have seen it.

Okay.

And I'm on the page for Cirque du Soleil and I'm kind of cruising through. Well, there's so many shows. There's so many different Cirque du Soleil shows.

I know. Well, you know what my favorite one is?

Oh.

Yeah.

It's lovely. Water. I love it. Yeah, you're a water sign.

No, I'm not. No, I'm not at all. I'm an earth sign. Double earth and a little bit of fire for my rising. Go on, you started that.

Well, lo and behold, I see not only is there a Mike Jackson Cirque du Soleil.

Oh.

Michael Jackson.

Sure.

It's at my hotel.

Oh, cool.

I go, fuck that. I'd rather walk downstairs than cross town.

Wow.

So now we're going to Cirque du Soleil Michael Jackson.

That's fun.

What a fucking weekend we're about to have.

Wow.

This is one of those crazy hard choices. You know, a Sophie's Choice, if you will.

Between Mystère and—

Yes. It's like, do you go with something you know you love that you don't get to see that often?

And I love passing it on, right? I've taken so many people who've never been to Mystère, and I know it—

Yeah. Or something new that's close by.

That's in your backyard.

Yeah.

It's an elevator ride away.

I hope it's good.

The tickets were more expensive than Mystère, so that makes me think minimally people want to see it more.

Maybe you could go on YouTube and just watch like 2 minutes to make sure people are flying around and it's not just like—

I know. I don't want to see an impersonation of Michael Jackson for 90 minutes. Exactly.

And I'm not going to say which one, but I once went to a Cirque show that I was underwhelmed by. Only once.

And you're not going to say which one?

No, because that's mean.

Does it still work? Is it still up and running?

Probably.

Okay. I have seen 4 of them. I've seen Mystère. I've seen Love, the Beatles one. I saw that one twice.

Okay.

One of my funniest experiences of my life was me and Panay went and we had drank each of us over 100 Diet Cokes that day. And the show starts 10 minutes in. We peed right before the show. 10 minutes in, I go to him, I go, dude, so embarrassing, I got to go. And he goes, oh, fucking thank God you said that. I'm going to pee my pants. We go, we sit back down. 12 minutes later, I'm like, I cannot believe I'm about to tell him this. I'm like, I got to fucking go again. He's like, oh my God, Monica, we peed 6 times in 90 minutes.

Do you think it was psychosomatic?

No. Every time I peed, volumes of pee.

What? Yeah.

Tons of girthy urine.

Tons of Diet Coke piss.

Yeah. Clear as water.

No, probably pretty brown.

No.

Really?

No, I just think when you drink that volume of liquid, it flushes out anything that makes your yawn yellow.

Interesting.

Yeah.

I used to kind of be obsessed with that.

The color of your yawn?

Yeah.

I could imagine you and I have different experiences, though.

Because you're staring right at it.

Oh, no, because I drink so much more fluid than you and so much more water than you, and I pee so much more. much more than you.

Yeah.

That I almost never have seen, like, orange.

Orange.

Other than that time I had the catheter and they put a dye in there.

Yeah.

And I hated seeing that orange yawn in the back.

Of course.

No one likes that.

No, it's gross. But unless you have— anyone listening's got orange yawns.

Yeah. Let's be nice. You're beautiful. It's a pretty color.

Beautiful baby.

Amber. But you're also like, you're peeing where you can look straight into the toilet.

I got a great view of my yawn. You've got to bend over.

Turn around. No, I pee.

Oh, then you evaluate in the bowl?

Yeah.

Well, then it's already been—

You can still tell the difference.

Yeah, but it has been diluted quite a bit by the half gallon of water in there. So think how fucking orange it was before you saw it diluted.

Do you see the pee streak?

I see raw yellow.

Oh, of the penis? Oh, wow. Yeah, no.

I pee out of my penis. That's what's unique about me.

Tell me more.

Yeah, so I'm using that and I can see the yuck. Okay.

Yeah.

So I know right away before— I don't even gotta look.

Remember when I thought this whole time that you were saying W— I mean, Y-A-W-N?

Y-A-W-N.

Yeah, that's what I thought. I thought it was like a Southern word.

Well, it is a Southern pronunciation of urine.

Urine. Yes. Yeah. Okay. Anyway, no, yeah, I pee sitting down. That's how I pee. And then I wipe, and then I stand up, and then I look, and I'm like, okay, And is the anticipation building?

Like, oh, like if you're suspicious it's gonna be bad.

Yeah.

Are you like, oh no, let's find out.

Sometimes I'm like, yikes, I didn't drink water. I wonder.

This week.

And then sometimes I'm happily surprised. I'm like, oh, I didn't need it.

Right. I drank too much maybe.

No, the other day I drank so much water one day that I got a migraine.

No, that's not why you got a migraine. But those 2 things happen, definitely correlated.

It made no sense. I was drinking so much water all day, and then I was like, oh, I'm getting a headache. Weird. And then it was just growing and growing. It was so bad.

I don't even like hearing about— if I'm being honest with you, I don't even like hearing about someone having a headache.

Really?

Because I feel like I'm going to get it the way that when I used to have ticks and someone was a blinker, it would set it off. I'm like, I don't even want to know about headaches.

Okay, well, this is, you know, you call me a hypochondriac, but I just want to, like, point the finger.

So you had a real throbber?

It was so bad. I, I, and I had to— I was driving home and I was like, I, like, don't— probably shouldn't be driving. Like, I am disoriented.

Wow.

And then I took 4 Advil as soon as I got home, and then I put this, like, ice pack thing on my head and nothing— it was not working.

None of that helped?

No. And then I had I tried this thing called a— it's like this peppermint oil thing, and you make a halo around your hairline with it, and it just really tingles. And that started to help a little bit. And then I think the Advil kicked in. But it was rough.

What was the duration of this agony?

Good question.

Thanks.

You ask good questions.

Thank you.

I don't know.

An hour?

Longer than that.

2 hours?

Maybe 2. I didn't want to look at my phone. It was— that would hurt, you know?

All I can— it makes me remember having hangovers and that I would be laying on my pillow in bed and I'd like keep micro-adjusting my head and then I'd find this little sliver of space where it's like, oh, there's a little relief.

Yeah.

And you just try to hold in that exact same spot and then that goes away and then you gotta re—

Isn't it crazy? Aren't hangovers crazy? that we have them and then we do that again.

Sure.

Yeah.

Like—

Price of admission.

That's a powerful drug.

Then it makes your head split.

And I mean, all kinds of things it does.

Yeah, yeah.

All kinds of things.

The most curious one is that it would make me crave a Filet-O-Fish sandwich at McDonald's.

Very common.

And you—

That doesn't make any sense. I don't like fish.

Wait, that's crazy you said that because I was gonna bring that up in the last Fact Check when we were talking about fish and how you hate fish. and now Aaron hates fish because— but I was about to say, I can't believe you guys don't even like Filet-O-Fish sandwich.

I can tell you when I was hungover, I loved them. I have never eaten one not hungover.

Okay, well, I have a recommendation for you. There's a restaurant, Little Fish. It's in Melrose Hill. It's so good. They have a fish sandwich there that went like— they created it during COVID and it was out of their house at first, and then it was this pop-up and now it's a restaurant. The fish sandwich, fried fish sandwich, is a Filet-O-Fish basically, but just much better ingredients.

Presumably.

It's so good.

It is.

Oh my God.

So crispy.

It's crispy. The cheese is so good on it. It has some sort of sauce. Oh my God.

Tartar type sauce.

Tartar type. And you should get it. I want you to get it.

Maybe just the next time I feel terrible, I'll— It won't be hangover-induced, but—

You know, the Filet-O-Fish is a few people who I know who are really, really big into food. It's their favorite food.

Oh, really?

And it's like a very interesting thing.

Where's this place located? I don't know what Melrose Hill is. What's that?

Melrose Hill? Well, wait till you watch my video.

Fishtown?

My resi video, because it's all about Melrose Hill.

Oh, it is?

Yeah.

Presumably Melrose Melrose Boulevard between what and what?

It's like Western and Melrose-ish. Oh, where there's like art galleries. I mean, I'm just wasting the video. You guys just gotta watch the vid.

Okay. Um, when's the vid drop?

I don't know.

Okay.

But anyway, highly recommend that.

What if I was driving down Western tonight with the kids and we were approaching Melrose and I was like, oh, I swerved down the side street. I'm like, I can't, I can't even find out about what's happening there. We gotta wait for the video, everyone.

I'm not supposed to be here!

I don't want to know.

I gotta wait. Okay, well, that sounds so fun. Vegas.

I'm very, very excited about this trip.

Oh, you guys are gonna have—

With the errands.

You're gonna have a great time. I had a less— I don't even— I probably shouldn't tell it.

Oh, yeah. Let's hear it.

No, no. 'Cause it's like not—

It's not becoming of a young woman? It's—

no. I was shameless about something.

Oh, wow.

I was shameless about something. But, and people will like this, it didn't work out.

Oh, okay.

Okay.

Okay. I'm going to New York.

Yeah.

And I, as if anyone listened to the Eric Goode episode, which is an incredible episode, please listen to that episode. He's such an amazing person.

Mind-blowing.

Yes. I stay at the Bowery, my favorite hotel.

Yep.

And I went to book my room and 2 days were sold out in the middle. Oof.

You had to go to another hotel.

Yes. But I was like, wait, what am I going to do now? Do I go there, then go to a different one, then come back? Do I just forget?

Sleep in the lobby for a couple nights? Or do I just forget this and go to a different hotel this time?

So this, you know, and then I was like, do I dare?

Reach out to Eric?

Yes.

Okay.

I did.

Okay.

His publicist. I reached out to his publicist and I said, I am so embarrassed to do this.

Yeah, yeah.

Especially so soon. But, you know, I'm gonna be in New York. I'm trying to book the Bowery. And it's saying there are some days that are sold out. I don't know if there's any wiggle room here. I don't know how true that is. Are there special rooms that they keep? My guess is yes. And I was like, I'm really sorry. I know this is upsetting. And she was like, of course, let me ask. And no problem. You don't apologize. And I was like, oh my God. And then—

He did offer a meal. You have that as a defense.

He did. And he offered, which was so sweet, a friends and family rate, which I was not trying to do.

You weren't trying to get a bargain. You just didn't wanna sleep in the lobby for a couple nights.

Yeah, I just wanna go to another hotel. I love hotels. So then this morning I wake up to like, there's like an email chain that has started and it's like, so, it's so nice. The person, I don't know if I should shout him out. His name is Jeremy. He works with Eric. Yeah. And he sent—

He's a good guy.

Really good guy.

Yeah, we love him.

He sent an email to the people there and was basically like, it was so nice. Like, our good friend needs a room, make it happen, basically. Our good friend.

Yeah.

Nice.

It was so nice. And they were like, make it happen and give her the friends and family rate. Make sure it's a nice room. just so kind.

Yeah.

And then the guy responded back and was like, no, I can't, can't do it. He was like, we're booked.

Yeah, don't know what to tell you.

And he was like, what, the first couple days? And I was like, sure, yes. Like, thank you all for trying. This is so, so, so sweet.

I'm so embarrassed.

And I clearly don't deserve love. Um, and yes, I'll— yes, I'll take what those first 2 nights then I'll figure out the rest, which is very upsetting.

So a lot of times when you reach out and you ask for a little help, you end up in a worse position. I found this to be the case, 'cause then they offer something as a consolation prize and then you feel obligated to take that, but you don't really want the consolation prize. I'm not saying that's the case you're in, but sometimes I am in that situation.

Of course.

Yeah, yeah.

And then you're just like, forget it.

I shouldn't have done this. This now I'm, yeah.

Well, that did happen recently. That's not the case here, but that did happen to me. I was ordering an umbrella for my patio.

Okay.

And I ordered it, and, um, then they sent me an email very kindly and was like, just confirming for you that this is the stand you want for the umbrella, because that stand doesn't actually go with this umbrella, but maybe you're buying it for another. And I was like, no, thank you, thank you.

Yeah.

That was so nice for you to catch. And yeah, yes, can I do the one that's the right one, or whatever? They're like, Yes. And then they were like, oh, it's sold out, but we have this other one and it's more expensive, but we'll give you a discount. I was like, that's so nice. Yes. And then they're like, oh, that's sold out too.

You know?

And then I was like, and I, and then I just had to be like, thank you so much. I'm gonna press pause on this whole thing. I'm not gonna get it. And I felt bad cuz they had done so much back and forth. They were really trying to be like a good business.

Yeah.

And they were, but like, Yeah. I was done with it.

I had to cancel something recently. I ordered another Hi-Factor 2000 for this house.

Oh, yeah.

And all of a sudden, 5 weeks has gone by. I'm like, where is my Hi-Factor? And then I emailed them, hey, what's this? Did this get lost in the mail?

For people who don't remember, it's the thing that zaps.

It's best that they don't, that I don't actually articulate.

It's the thing that zaps.

Dax's hyperinflation.

And I am dying right now because there's like 2 things I want to zap. And it's driving me insane. I'm like, I almost wanna fly to Nashville.

Which ones?

Just a little bump here I don't like, and then a little bump over here I'm not enjoying. And at any rate, so they're like, no, it's backordered. But mind you, when I ordered it, it said in stock, right? So then I'm like, okay, well now I wanna find, is there another place I can get it?

Sure.

So I find another place.

Okay.

But I don't wanna order a second one if the other one is gonna come. So then I sent an email and said, say it.

And I—

this is the term, this is the language I use. I said, if it's okay, I would like to initiate a refund.

Wow.

Yeah, yeah.

Um, I have found the product from another vendor, I said. I think I'm maybe trying to sound like a doctor because I think you have to be a doctor to have this. Oh, you know what I'm saying? So I'm trying—

You shouldn't have said if it's okay. That feels, that feels layman's.

That's true. Or just, they would be more mad. Yeah, yeah, they would be entitled to be mad. mad. And I wasn't.

They say, I have an MD.

It's okay, I would like to initiate a refund. I found another vendor that can get it here quicker. And so I have, I have received a refund from that, and I've ordered another one. But now I'm prepared for that one to probably take 5 weeks as well. And then I'll be like, I should have just stayed the course. Shortcuts are always the fastest way to the back of the line, I've been told.

Uh-huh. And I've been told, um, there's no Oh boy.

You can't even get that out. That's how little you believe in it.

I believe in it so much. Yeah. I've been told there's no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

Uh-huh. That's also good.

Yeah.

Yeah.

It's really good. It was on, it was on a necklace. On Instagram.

Oh, it was on a necklace. That's a lot of words for a necklace.

It was on a compass necklace from Kohl's that Callie had in high school. And I loved it so much. She got me one.

I recall this story.

Yeah.

Yeah.

It's a pretty important story.

It's a heartwarming one.

That's a really important story to our friendship.

It is.

You know, Kali used to be so— oh, she still is.

Oh my God. She used to be so nice and gentle.

I was going to say that.

Yeah.

She really did though. At the beginning of our friendship, she was making up for a tough beginning.

Okay.

If you remember, she didn't save me a seat and it was horrible.

Oh, Jesus.

And I was really vulnerable. I asked her to save me a seat and then I get to class and then she didn't save me a seat.

Okay.

It was really bad.

Yeah.

But once we got through that, Um, she used to bring me treats all the time. She used to bring me Entenmann's donuts.

Yeah.

The chocolate ones with the crumbles.

And there's like wax over the chocolate too?

Yeah, they would— they had different kinds. They had a waxy chocolate one, they had a, um, regular— ew. And then they had a chocolate one that had little— it was a cake donut.

Oh, right, right.

I know this Yeah, it had crumblies on top.

That was your favorite. I liked the wax chocolate-covered one.

Regular wax? Or did you like that it was chocolate inside?

No, no, it was a vanilla with chocolate wrapping, like the Hostess ones that I loved.

Yeah, those are—

The Hostess ones didn't have as much wax on them as the Entenmann's. I love Entenmann's. It makes me think of my Papa Bob and Grandma immediately. They constantly were chowing down on an Entenmann's coffee cake.

They just—

grandparents fucking love coffee cake. love coffee cake.

I know.

It still has never—

Got you.

Got me.

Yeah.

It feels very dry.

I agree. I was in New York with friends who have good taste that are going to come up later, and, um, they recommended I get a coffee— we went to Zabar's after, and they were like, have you had the coffee cake? Like, you need to get it. And I was like, oh, I was lying. Like, I wasn't excited about the coffee cake.

It tastes a little bit like sand.

I didn't get it though.

You didn't? Okay. Yeah, it feels like sand consistency a little bit.

It looks like sand.

It is sand. That's the thing. It's just made of sand and cinnamon flavor.

Listen, feel free to send us some coffee cakes.

Weekly's prepared a stew.

Oh, wow.

He started on a stew yesterday, on a pot roast.

Okay.

Yeah. And that's what we're eating for dinner tonight.

What do you mean he started yesterday?

He started it yesterday and then he said it'd be ready at 5:00 And then he put a fork in it and it didn't crumble. And he said, it's not ready. And then it should be ready at 6:30. Then 6:30 rolled around, he put a fork in it. He's like, it's not there. So then we ordered Indian food, not to trigger you, but we did. And it was so delicious. And then he put his fork in it right after we finished the Indian food and the whole thing crumbled. He goes, well, now it's perfect. So then he just, that's fine.

Okay.

No more heat.

Okay.

Goes in the fridge and then it'll get warmed up tonight. We'll have a nice pot roast.

Okay.

Well, I'm excited to hear how that goes. The end of that story.

Remember that the— and by the way, that just for anyone that listened to the last Fact Check, he told on himself and he admitted that his wife said, Aaron loves cooking. He said, no, I don't.

I know.

And then he left that Fact Check and he called Ruthie and he said, I admitted on the Fact Check that I had done this. He said, well, if you recall, it was harsher than that. It was, you said, I hate cooking. And he goes, it was even worse than I remember.

Oh no. I hate cooking. What a strange, strange— you too.

I know.

You too.

There's something wrong with us.

But he acknowledged it publicly.

That's all you can ask for.

Well, it's something to ask for. Yeah.

It's an improvement.

Yeah. It's better than nothing.

Just sticking with it. I think a lot of guys just, they stick with whatever dumb thing they do.

And then they can't cook ever again, even though it's their favorite activity.

Yeah. And they want to, and they remember they enjoy cooking for others.

Yeah. And then the wife's out of town and then they get something stuck up their butt, obviously. And then the wife comes back into town and they're like, it smells like pot roast in here. Did you order it?

Where do you order a pot roast from, hon? That's what they would ask.

Oh, I got it from—

Tool department. That's why you've never seen it. It's made by Craftsman.

Okay, well, I see there's a pot on the table.

Comes with a pot. That's a Craftsman brand pot.

Okay.

Yeah, came with a pair of pliers.

I'm just going to listen to you talk about a divorce.

Well, okay.

Okay.

I went to an ears, nose, and throat doctor.

Yes. What happened?

Well, I guess the headline is I don't have a deviated septum or anything. Yeah. Which of course I wanted.

I know. I'm sorry.

And then I'm going to now do the sleep test where you wear a thing on your finger.

Oh.

I think I'll start that tonight. It's supposed to have arrived.

What does it do?

It tells you if you have sleep apnea or whatever. It measures how many times you wake up.

Oh, like an Oura Ring or something?

But I think it's a little more— I haven't seen it yet, but apparently it's like a full sleeve that goes over your finger.

Oh, it's medical grade.

And it's Bluetooth and it communicates with your phone.

Okay.

So I'm excited about that. I'm excited to get a terrible score, which is a weird feeling.

Relax.

Well, no, I want it confirmed.

You want validation.

Yes. I want data to support this experience I'm having.

Okay.

But the experience itself was I went and the doctor didn't come in the room for an hour.

Yeah, this happens.

I know.

It's upsetting. Was this person recommended?

Yes, by my primary care physician.

Okay, great.

He did, though, say— he said, oh, yeah, I know 2 great ones. One's older, but he's really— he's done a million.

Okay.

I was like, oh, I'm not afraid of older.

Oh.

Let's go older. And then I'm sitting in the room by myself for an hour, and then I have to pee.

Oh, yeah.

So then I gotta pee. I don't know what to do. I just— I walk out of the room.

Sure.

I walk down the hallway. I walk through the lobby. I go use the bathroom. I come back in. The door's locked to get back in the hallway.

Oh.

And the receptionist is— she's not having it. Like, there's just too many people there, I think, right? She's purposely ignoring anyone that's in the thing. So now I'm like, this is hysterical. I can't get the receptionist's attention. It was an hour waiting there. And now all of a sudden I hear the doctor go, where's my patient? I've lost my patient.

Oh.

I can hear him. He's yelling. And I go, I'm here. I had to go to the bathroom and now I'm locked out of the hallway. This is how it starts. And he's like, oh, whoa, whoa, let him in. Then the receptionist pays attention for a minute. And then I go in there and it was the most bizarre interaction I've ever had with a doctor. Like, I don't even think he saw, like, could see me or something.

'Cause of his age?

I just don't know. I think he's, I don't know. I don't know. But it was a very bizarre experience. And he's poking around in my nose and he's talking about another patient the whole time. He's like, can you believe that thing we saw? that patient at 10? He's just talking about that.

He's talking to somebody else?

Yeah, his helper. And so he's not talking to me at all. And then when I start to engage, he just doesn't want anything to do with it. Then he fills my nose with all this numbing cream. And then I sit for another 20 minutes and I'm like, Jesus Christ, man, I didn't know I was going to be gone for 3 hours. I had other stuff. And then they take me to another room and he crams a camera way down.

Wow.

Could you feel it?

Yes. He's like, all right, this should have gotten rid of your gag reflex. All right, now let me put this in. I was like, ah, all right. I wish every patient could handle this. So I got a compliment.

That's good.

That was really nice. All to say, it was a very unsatisfactory experience, but I got the referral for the sleep study, which I guess is all I needed because I didn't have a deviated septum. And now the next only thing left is to get the sleep study. But then I got a message on my voicemail 2 days later. It was like, hi, we're calling from such and such doctor, and we'd like to schedule you for an ear test, hearing test.

Oh.

And I'm like, I would never come back there. I would never— you guys know— oh, I got to add too, the fucking— the office was dirty.

Oh, God.

I'm looking at— I'm in the room with the camera, and they've got some computer equipment. Clearly, they've upgraded to the system, but instead of getting rid of the old equipment, there's all these keyboards just crammed jammed in the bottom of this cart. It looked like when you're in high school and they bring the AV cart, it's just all the old shit they did that's not fixed that they're not gonna throw away.

Yeah.

And I'm just kind of looking around, everything is shit stacked up everywhere. There's fucking keyboards hanging on the thing, cords everywhere. I'm just like, I don't want to go back there for anything.

Yeah.

Ever.

Cut this, but was that in Beverly Hills?

Yeah. I'm sure the guy was a legend.

Hit or miss.

Yeah, it was crazy how dirty and fucking— how much pack rat shit was all over these different offices. And the notion that I'm gonna come back for a hearing test was so I can sit in that room for an hour and then I can—

yeah.

Okay, this is funny. This reminds— so when I first moved here, and this is definitely privilege, right? Like, I understand.

Yeah, yeah, I'm lucky I can go see someone, let me say that.

Oh, right.

Yeah, I'm totally lucky. That's not what I'm about to say.

When, when I grew up, I obviously had doctors and stuff, and I grew up in the suburbs, So I don't know. I just went to the doctor. They all kind of seemed the same to me. Nice, I guess. Yeah.

You're right.

In retrospect now, I'm like, oh, those are nice? I thought that was— that was standard, right?

Right. Yeah.

And then—

Same with my small town. Like, when you went to the doctor, they were nice to you.

Oh, I mean, like, it's not dirty. Oh, right.

Yeah, yeah.

Same.

Like, it was a pretty new facility in my small town. Yeah.

Yeah.

Just like the chairs look nice or whatever. Anyway, when I remember when I first moved to LA, I was like, oh my God, everything, all the doctor's offices look like grungy.

Sure. Like there's diseases all over everything.

Yes. And then I was like, oh, it's probably 'cause I'm not going to nice ones. And then I started going to nice ones and it's the same. What's going on?

It is weird that my small hometown had a much nicer nicer setup than this really nice quote unquote nice.

Okay, so are you going to go to a different person to do a hearing test? Were they—

No, I don't even need a fucking hearing test. My hearing is fine.

But they think— yeah.

Also on the thing, Nate, you're filling out a questionnaire, which I did, by the way. I got there like 20 minutes early to fill out. I knew there would be a lot of— that's another— I mean, if I can be airing grievances, it's like I'm in the same fucking network, right? I go to the same— it's the same group.

Yeah.

How could they not have— I don't understand how that hasn't been digitized in a way that, like, you know my birthday, you have my insurance information, I've gone to all these doctors in this network, and I got to start from beginning. Tell me if anyone in your family's died of cancer. All of it is just waste.

Because it was a new experience.

It's waste for them. It's waste for me. It's just so inefficient. It's crazy. There's no way this couldn't be coordinated. So, yeah, in that paperwork, It's like, he was asking you questions about your hearing. Well, none of them would've alerted them to that I needed a hearing test.

Right.

I have no complaints about my hearing.

Yeah. Do you think you're a little defensive because you were deaf when you were born?

No, I don't think that's what's going on. Anyways, back to the person.

Yeah.

And then I just thought like, oh yeah, they're like a machine that's just like, yeah, now they can get another fee for checking my hearing when I had no complaints about my hearing. And then the— yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

You gotta watch out.

So I was unsatisfied with that experience. But what's lucky is, what would I have done if he was like, oh, yeah, you have a DBA symptom, let's schedule a surgery? I think I would have to go like, nah, after meeting you and interacting with you and then the fucking filth of your office and your lack of punctuality. And here's the other thing. I understand that people get behind.

Yeah.

Actually, I wouldn't have I wouldn't have even brought this up if the guy had said, hey, sorry, I'm an hour late.

Right.

I'd have nothing to say to you right now.

Yeah.

I wouldn't even have thought about it.

Yeah.

But the notion that you're coming in an hour late, you don't even address that.

I agree.

And then you don't even really look me in the eyes and even talk to me at some point.

Yeah, I agree.

I'm like, oh, I'm a part of—

Not a good experience.

I'm in a factory.

Yeah.

And they're just cha-ching, cha-ching, cha-ching, cha-ching.

Okay, but this is why we're different, right? And we did just talk about this on an episode that will come up. You're like, I guess I'd have to tell him this place is a dump and I hate him. I'm like, no, you could just say, just say, okay, I'm going to go home and think about it and I'll be in touch. And then you just aren't in touch.

Well, funny enough, to be more specific about what we just talked about, I was saying in the past I would confront people about if they asked for something kind of that I thought was inappropriate, I would tell them like, hey, you shouldn't really be asking me this. Right? So in the past, and I want to, I want to call back and go like, no, I'm not going to have a hearing test there because you're an hour late. Still no one said sorry. And it was a terrible You guys need to fucking clean the office. And why are you keeping all those keyboards? What do you think you're gonna do with those keyboards? Instead, I just didn't return the call, and I'm never gonna return the call.

Right.

'Cause I was saying my new method is I just ignore stuff I don't like.

Yes, that, of course. But I'm saying if you're in there and they're like, oh my God, you need surgery, let's get— no, no.

I'd bleed to death. I wouldn't go in there.

The thing that you brought up, the scenario, and that he's like up there and he's like, oh wow, you have a deviated septum, we need to do surgery. Then you say, okay, I would like to go and think about this and I'll be in touch. Not like, well, I'm not doing it here with you, sir.

Yeah. I'm gonna go see the other guy. Should have that. And I'm gonna tell my GP to stop recommend— I was gonna say, it did cross my mind to tell him to stop recommending.

I was gonna say that of all things to do, you could just be like, hey, it's not an issue, but I am, I do just wanna let you know that that was not a good experience. And like maybe recommend the other guy. Yeah.

Yeah.

Just keep it to you. But now you need to see the other item. make sure he's worth the recommendation.

Hope he's worse. I'm like, oh, wow, I actually got the right guy.

He could be.

But, well, great. Luckily I don't need an operation. The other terrible truth is he might be the best at the operation.

I know.

This is, you get into bedside manner, right? And then who gets sued and who doesn't?

Yes.

So maybe he's still the best.

Okay, so the sleep thing. Okay, so you're going to monitor that. And then is there, do you have to go to a facility and sleep there one night?

That's the old way. And that would've been preventative for me because I can barely sleep in my own ideal situation. I can't imagine. I've had friends and they hook you up to so many cables and shit, and I roll around a lot. And I'm on the move when I go to sleep, man.

How many pillows do you sleep on?

I bet I burn 600, 700 calories a night, fucking flopping around all night. Well, what I'm hoping and thinking will happen is if they conclude I have sleep apnea and I need a device, I'm praying that this company I'm dealing with for the device, we'll just supply it and I have them dial it in. I, I hope, like, I don't— I don't even suggest I got to go back to that guy.

Yeah, yeah, don't even whisper that.

I'll just fucking— I'll be like, I'm buying one my own. I'll read the manual. I'll have chat tell me how to—

No, I'm gonna go to my hyperplasia guy. My high— what's it called?

Hi-Fector.

My Hi-Fector guy.

I got that.

2000.

Oh, the The one great thing I should have said this.

Okay.

Had a great nurse before the man eventually came back.

We love nurses here, obviously.

And I told her I had a HyFactor, and she said, oh, I know why. She said that she missed working for a dermatologist, that she had worked for a dermatologist for a lot of years. I said, oh, wow. So you worked at a dermatologist forever? And she goes, yeah. And I go, did you ever use the HyFactor 2000? Did you ever just use it? And she goes, the entire time I worked there, I wanted to. And I go, why didn't you? She goes, I didn't want to get in trouble. She goes, and there's one here in one of the offices, and I think about using it all the time. And I'm like, go for it. No, I have one and it's awesome. And I'm having so much fun zapping everything off my body.

Listen, no.

And she was like, she got it. She got it. She's been coveting it just like I did for years.

She's not going to do it. And this is a major ding, ding, ding too.

Do you think I could get sued by Hi-Factor?

I don't know.

I'm scared. They might call and say, you got to stop talking about us. talking about this device. Hope the LAPD shows up at my house.

Seizing your—

Sir, we understand you have a medical device in here, and we also understand you're not a doctor.

We have it in writing. You initiated a refund.

Such a good device. They should actually have me as an ambassador or a spokesperson for it. It's made by ConMed.

Okay, stop.

Stop telling the story. That's the manufacturer. It's such a good instrument.

Okay. This isn't a really, really, really big ding, ding, ding for facts for next episode.

Oh.

But it is— I'm a little just— I don't care.

Okay.

Okay. It's for Adam Grant.

Yeah.

And we get in a conversation about cheating and employees and if those are connected, if people cheat in the office.

Right. Affairs.

Exactly.

Yeah.

Are they more likely to cheat to cheat or be dishonest in the office if they've cheated on their partners.

Yes.

And we both are— we're both like, we don't think that's the case.

Yeah. The group you're using was on a very specific— whatever. You'll hear that.

You'll hear it.

This is a healthy debate.

But this is funny because this nurse has such high integrity. She's like, I want to so bad and I'm not gonna.

She probably has never cheated.

And she's probably never cheated. And now we know.

Maybe she's right. Maybe what we found out is she's right.

Maybe.

What if I followed it up? I go, you've never used it? She goes, no. I go, have you ever cheated? She was like, what? What the hell does that have to do with me wanting to burn off this skin tag I have?

All right.

You wanna do some facts?

Let's do some facts.

Stay tuned for more Armchair Expert, if you dare.

Okay. Jared Diamond. My goodness gracious.

Yeah.

I can't believe he was about to turn 89 the next day.

Yes. He's definitely now 89.

He's 89.

Since we recorded it.

And he's so— he's still so smart.

Like— Yep.

Part of that is, it is a—

Use it or you lose it?

Yeah.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

It is.

Yeah, I mean, I'm inclined to think that as well. Although I do know a couple of people that were brilliant and they used it.

Yeah.

So that happens too.

Sure.

But it is so impressive that at 89, he's as articulate as he is and can roll out his whole book in the manner that he can.

I know.

Yeah, it definitely made me think of David Attenborough.

Right. And I have thought a lot about this, like leadership and what makes a good leader and all the factors a lot since we interviewed him.

What is cute is he has so much he could be proud of or impressed with. And what did he talk all— when we weren't recording?

Gallbladder.

Well, that was his expertise early on.

Oh, ornithology.

Well, ornithology, but his children.

Oh, yeah.

It's so cute that no matter what someone does, Yep. Right? He's just like, he's so into his kids' lives and what they're up to.

Yeah.

And it's very sweet. Of course.

Of course.

And yes. And when we walked out, because I walked him out and waited for his Uber, a little bird shot up into our oak tree and he immediately was like, oh, that's such and such, such and such.

Yeah.

And normally they're this and they're blah, blah, blah, blah. And I'm like, that's wild. I can't comprehend doing that. I can do it with cars. Yeah.

So you can comprehend.

I can in that way.

Yes.

But birds don't look that distinct to me.

Well, and people would say that about cars.

They would.

Yeah.

They absolutely would.

Yeah. I think I told you that was— ding, ding, ding. That was one of the examples that in this archaeology class I had, they were talking about Moche art in Peru and how they can tell what year the pot is made based on how the pattern changed in art. Like it evolved. And of course, when you're— to the layperson, these things all look identical. And I'm almost suspicious of like, well, you're telling me you guys have figured out that this one came 1,000 years after this one? And then the professor said, now, there are people in this room that could look at taillights of an Impala and tell you what year it is. And I was like, oh yeah, I can do that.

The F1 drivers can hear the sound and know what part. That's real. That's why I know not to be controversial, but I know you and other people don't believe in somms. And to me, that's unfair.

What are somms?

Sommeliers.

Oh, sommeliers.

Yeah. And it's like, that's unfair to them because they can do that. They can taste it and they can know the region. And just because maybe you, general you who doesn't think this is real, can't do that or don't taste a difference and say, who cares? It's the— what they know.

I don't dispute that they know it.

Okay. Some people do think it's all made up.

Well, there have been some pretty bad blind tests that they've failed.

Some people, yeah.

Yeah, some, some well-knowns have failed some cheap wine tests. So that's, that's one issue.

Sure. Like, probably—

My bigger issue is, like, this one's better and more valuable than that one? So I'm already— the whole endeavor, I kind of bristle at because I think it's the same reason someone decided one of these baseball cards is worth $10 million and it's printed on paper and it's identical to the other one. The other one's signed as well, but that one is worth $10 million. It's— you decided it's worth $10 million.

Well, depending on who's in it, how rare they are. I mean, people would say that about classic cars. Like, okay, this one happens to be worth so much money. Okay. I don't see that much of a difference between this and this. Like, yeah, it's all interesting. Everyone has their own niche. And I guess I'm just saying it's cool to have a niche.

Yeah.

And we're not, and I don't wanna disrespect any of the niches. Yeah. But yeah, anyway, orangeology.

It triggers my class warfare.

I know.

So I wish you could just understand that.

Million dollar bottle of wine. We're like, you guys are joking. jerking each other off. Like, you're gonna get drunk the same. Does it taste better?

The car's gonna get you from A to B the same.

But can it get you to A to a quarter mile in 9 seconds? That's an objective, quantifiable thing.

Can the wine taste a lot better? Yes.

Also, the way you drink it— Taste is very subjective. Like, I think a Big Mac's better than $100 piece of fish.

Okay. But if you drink wine as I do, and I do not claim to be, I don't, I'm not a somm.

Okay.

And I would not be able to tell the difference between a million-dollar bottle of wine and a $1,000 bottle of wine. Right. Is there a million-dollar bottle of wine?

Let's ask what the most expensive bottle of wine that's ever been auctioned. I'm going to ask it right now. Now, what's the most expensive bottle of wine ever to be purchased? This record appears to have changed in 2026. A 750 milliliter bottle of 1945 Domaine de la Romanée-Conti, DRC Romanée-Conti, sold for $812,500.

One bottle. Wow. Yeah.

I mean, what do you think about What do I think about it?

Does that seem—

I think anything when you're getting to this level and it's an item is like, it's crazy. And I can wrap my head around if that's your world.

I mean, it's interesting though. I'll say this. One thing that's really unique about it is that the million-dollar painting can be enjoyed.

I know it. Yes, I agree with you.

The million-dollar car can be enjoyed.

Yes.

This, you just, you have to be getting that much pleasure outta knowing you own something rare.

I agree with you.

You can't experience it or it's gone.

I know. I agree with you on that.

Okay. Thank God. That's great.

But that's different to me than like being in the wine world and knowing what things are from and stuff like that. But like, yes, owning million-dollar bottles of wine is—

Seems a little crazy.

To me.

Assuming you've run outta things to buy.

Yeah.

And you're like, oh.

It wouldn't be for, I'm probably never getting, no.

Even these crazy watches, you can wear them.

Of course. Yeah.

Here's one. There are some weird exceptions. For example, a magnum of Champagne Avenue Foch, Foch, 2017 reportedly sold for $2.5 million. But that transaction included an NFT digital artwork. Okay. Another fake thing. Another fake thing. Right. It's fake.

Now, do you— so they're not drinking it, right?

No, the NFT? I don't think you can.

No, not the NFT. That's easy.

That's easy.

No, the million, the 812.

Right. There's no way someone's— I hope they drink it before they die.

Yeah. Or maybe they pat— they're probably gonna pass it down.

It'll probably get sold at another auction at some point for $2 million.

Yeah.

I—

It's just to tell people I have this thing. You gotta admit that's a little bit—

I know.

Okay.

I agree with you on that.

Okay.

Now what do you, but But I was saying, as someone who does drink wine, I can taste the difference between a $12 bottle and a $50 bottle. And I really can because sometimes I'll be at parties and all pour and I'm like, I can't drink it.

Sure. But I definitely think there's got to be some stratas we'd agree upon. So yes, I bet you can tell the difference between an $8 box of wine wine and a $150 bottle of wine.

Yeah, I can.

But I would bet a considerable amount of money that you can't tell the difference between a $150 bottle of wine and a $2,500 bottle of wine. That I would put a good chunk of money on.

I probably could not. I do think, though, it's all relative. Like, some people can't really care. They don't care or taste the difference between $12 and $100.

I liked orange Jell-O when I was drinking wine. Sometimes I would get that big fucking jug at Safeway. on for like $6. Pound that thing and drink it right out of the bottle.

Yeah, great. Um, I'm not against— I'm not like— but I've got— snobbiness is like, you don't think you're going to become a snob at something, and then once you get in the world, it happens.

Snobbery follows.

Yeah. The most expensive bottle of wine I think I've ever paid for, uh-huh, was to be consumed in the moment. It was at a restaurant. It wasn't like to own and present, but I wanted to—

To show people.

Yeah. Was recently, and I think it was like $250.

Oh, wow. Okay.

It was a lot.

Yeah.

Shared. Okay.

How many bottles? 3.5 glasses in a bottle of wine?

No, I would say like 5.

There's 5?

Yeah. Okay.

So $50 a glass. Yeah.

Yeah.

Okay. It's a lot. I'm not saying it's not a lot. I have thought about that wine multiple times since I had it and my friend had it. And she too was like, this wine is so good. And—

So I believe you 1,000%. And I also believe in paying for experiences because that's what you're going to take with you.

Right.

Right? I agree. But would you also acknowledge that your brain does some stuff when you know, like, I'm going to spoil myself. This is obnoxious, but I've decided in this moment it's worth it. This moment's special. I'm going to go for it.

Yes.

There's a lot built around it.

Of course.

Yeah. Okay.

There is. I totally agree with you. But also, I'll buy wine from— shout out Silver Lake Wines. Great wine shop.

Let me just put it this way. It's the exact same bottle of wine, but it was $25. I'm pretty certain you wouldn't reflect back on it a lot.

I know.

Even though it'd be good, it'd be the same.

The part is, this is what I'm trying to tell you.

Okay.

It couldn't be $25.

Okay.

'Cause it is, it is too good unless it's all relative, unless the cheapest bottle of wine is 5 cents.

Well, we agree the price of grapes are the price of grapes.

Well, it depends on where it's coming from, region. This is an Italian wine and the year is rare.

I know, but they don't, They don't put grapes in some wine and then gold in other wine.

No, no, no. Yeah, but the quality of the grapes and when they harvest and how they harvest, it's all—

I'm sure they go up some percentage if you grow them perfectly and you take all the time and all that. But just the base ingredients are the base ingredients of wine.

Again, like a car.

Well, not true.

Well, the base ingredient—

Carbon fiber disc brakes. Are they metal? Are they carbon fiber? Is the body aluminum? Is it—

That has to do with this too. Is it in steel? Is it in wood? I mean, there's— there are factors.

There are factors. Yeah.

Yeah.

But they, they go up, um, by orders of magnitude in certain spaces. Uh, luxury brands tend to— they get an order of magnitude of markup.

Yes.

Yeah.

Um, but—

And by the way, I'm delighted. I sign— I co-sign on your decision to do that.

Yeah.

And it's great that you reflect on it.

Yeah. But I've also— what I was going to say is I buy wine from Silver Lake Wines. Shout out, great wine store in LA. Great to buy from them.

Okay.

And there's this— I'll enjoy it. I really like Barolo wines.

Okay.

That's my preferred wine. It's not that easy to find, so I will buy it if it's at Silver Lake Wines. I've bought many, and I don't know this cost from this cost. It's all in my cabinet. And I'm not—

You don't remember what's cost what.

I don't remember what's what. And some are significantly more than others. But there are times where I will have it and I'm like, this is not good.

Garbage.

Yeah.

And wine also turns sometimes, right?

Yeah.

Something's wrong with the cork. It can get—

Yeah. And nothing. And I'll look and I'll be like, oh, that was one of the expensive ones.

Ah, that happens.

That happens. And I'm like, ew, I'm not buying that again. So it's not— there are—

You won't completely fool yourself.

Exactly.

You're like, this is like shit. Then you look at the back, no, this is actually delicious because it was—

Exactly. I'm like, oh, yuck. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Anywho, okay, talking about— okay, back to the rare things. This is, this is, uh, Sim, and it's a ding ding ding. Um, Shakespeare's most read, most popular plays?

I think number 1 has got to be Romeo and Juliet.

Yes, it doesn't— it just has top 3.

Okay.

So that is in there.

Yep.

I would say Romeo and Juliet. I'd say Hamlet.

Mhm.

And then for my third, I would say King Lear.

No.

Damn it.

You want to try again?

Midsummer Night's Dream.

Midsummer Night's Dream.

Yes. Midsummer Night's Dream.

Um, I was in—

I was almost out though.

Oh, you were?

Yeah.

How many other ones are there?

Oh, he has so many.

Oh, too many. Well, he said he wrote 22 before he even wrote Hamlet, I guess.

He's a very prolific man.

Okay.

Now, I was in A Midsummer Night's Dream in college.

Yes, you were.

And I recently was watching, or I was on Instagram, and I was served Amy Poehler talking to D'Arcy Carden, both friends of our pod. And Amy, Was saying that she was a fairy in A Midsummer Night's Dream.

Oh my goodness.

And I was a fairy in A Midsummer Night's Dream.

Oh my God. And you love her.

And I love her.

Yeah.

And so we have some shared DNA.

You have something to talk about the next time you see her.

We have so much to talk about. But that is—

I wonder if you were the same fairy.

No, she said she was, um, like Peablossom.

Okay.

And I was Mustard Seed. Okay, so the fairies are Peaseblossom, not Peabla— Peaseblossom. That's who she was. Cobweb.

Okay.

Moth and Mustard Seed.

So there's only 4 fairies? Mm-hmm.

They're very small parts.

Yeah, very exclusive roles.

And small actors. Anyway, so I just love that, that we're both of the fairies. Yeah.

I was never in a play.

In your life? I don't think—

I'm trying to think. I don't think I've ever been in a play.

Well, I also—

Is that true? I think so.

Oh, there's still time.

Broadway debut.

I was also interested—

I was offered a Broadway play.

Wow.

Not too long ago. And I thought, that's crazy they offered this to me.

No, why would it be crazy?

I don't know.

Offered is a little crazy.

Yeah, but I've never done theater. Well, I've done comedy theater.

Yes, you have. But it is different. But yes, you've done sketches where you had to memorize stuff, so it's not like you've only done improv.

Yeah, I've done a lot of stage work. I just have never been in a play.

I was also in Trojan Women. It was Trojan Women.

That sounds pornographic.

Trojan Women and Iphigenia at Aulis.

Oh my God. That also sounds pornographic.

Iphigenia. Yeah.

Oh my God.

I was her.

Iphigenia?

Uh-huh.

Oh, wow.

She's— if you remember—

Is she a temptress?

Uh-uh. She's a kid. If you remember in The Odyssey, she's the kid that is sacrificed, and that's why Helen's sister kills the husband.

Oh.

Because they sacrifice her.

Sacrifice.

I was sacrificed.

Oh.

Yeah.

Okay.

So that was a pretty big part.

Okay.

All right.

That was cool. Uh, okay, so Hitler was almost in a life-killing car accident.

1930.

And then also, you know that rumor— but it is a rumor because I looked— that his mom wanted to get an abortion?

Oh, I don't even know that one.

Oh, that's like a common thing people say.

Okay.

It says there's no historical evidence of that.

Yeah.

But it is a common thing people say. say. So then I was like, wow, he really—

I don't know how common abortions were in 1900 Austria.

She wanted to abort.

Okay.

Also, how would anyone know that? Was she reading a journal?

Maybe. I don't know. It's a rumor. Okay.

I'm not mad at you for telling me the rumor. I'm only saying it's often useful to think about how the knowledge has been acquired. Right? You hear someone say some study they heard about, and then you go, well, explain to me how that study was done. And you realize there's no way to do that study.

I mean, there's a Reddit, but I just, I don't trust Reddit, so I'm not going to even do that. How much money does Alabama put into their football team?

If UCLA is $150 grand in the hole, I got to imagine this is going to be a big number.

University of Alabama spent $82.9 million directly on its football program. While the university relies heavily on the football program to generate the vast majority of its overall athletic department revenue, the massive annual expenditure is funneled into various components to keep the program operating at an elite level.

Will you ask how much money the football team generates?

Yes, I will.

I don't know if this is a cash-positive—

Also, $25.2 million dedicated to paying head coach.

$25 million a year to be head coach.

Support staff, $7 million. Game day expenses, $7.5 million. Recruiting, $4 million.

Oh my God.

Okay. How much does the University of Alabama football team football team generate? A lot, I bet. $147.7 million.

Wow.

That's through their merch, I guess.

In total operating revenue.

Wow.

That's crazy. Net profit, $64.8 million.

Wow.

The South, baby.

And look, it's worth it. They should spend $100 million.

I know. No, because they still want to make money.

Well, maybe they'd make one— they make $70 million.

Georgia generates an estimate of $147 million to $153 million in average annual revenue.

Whoa. Ask U of M. I know that's generally the biggest merchandised team, or I've heard that in the past.

The overall UGA athletic department pulls in roughly $233.5 million to $241.8 million.

Quarter B.

Quarter B. Wow. Okay. What do you want? U of M?

Yeah. How much does it generate?

Football team or football team? Okay. $175.3 million.

I have heard many times that they are, for whatever reason, they tend to sell more merch than any other team.

What?

For whatever reason. Yeah.

That's crazy. What was the money exchange thing? I think you're talking about that Elon had. I think you're talking about PayPal.

Oh yeah.

Or x.com/paypal.

It definitely was PayPal because weirdly I'm reading another book that just talked about PayPal.

Great.

Although PayPal is who bought his, so his was called something else.

Peter Thiel bought it.

Yeah.

X Money was what it was called.

Oh, that was what it was called.

Was Jesus's room messy? I don't know. I couldn't find any information on that, but I looked.

He probably didn't even have a room.

I mean, we're talking— Exactly. He lived in a town.

People didn't have multi-room dwellings, I don't think.

I think he lived in a town. In a shed.

In a manger.

When he was a baby.

Well, I'm sure they would've continued living in that manger, no?

I thought a manger was a basket.

No, a manger is like a little tiny farm.

Oh.

There's a sheep and a— let's see.

I mean, I knew Jesus was born.

I wanna double-check that that's true.

But I thought— oh, I thought that basket he lit—

What's the definition of a manger? It says manger. How do you spell manger?

M-A-N-G-E-R, I think.

Oh, okay, then that is. Correct. It looks like manager to me. A manger is a long wooden or stone trough used to hold food and hay for farm animals like horses, cattle, and donkeys.

So, well, yeah, like a barn, like you said. Oh, see, that's what I thought it was, a basket that he was in.

But no, the basket is in a manger. The basket itself is not the manger because that basket could be anywhere and it would still be a basket, but it's in a manger.

Okay.

Yeah.

Which is a big stone or wooden square that's containing horses, cattle, hay, and donkeys.

Yeah.

I don't think a donkey could fit in that. So—

That photo.

Yeah.

Yeah.

All right. Well, I learned something today. I thought it was a name for a bassinet.

You didn't grow up Christian. What can you do?

Exactly. What can you do?

I would not— we would not know the word manger if Jesus hadn't been brought to a manger.

No.

I've never heard of that. heard it apart from in the biblical sense.

Yeah. And the nativity scene is the manger.

I should still know though, because I did take religion with my hot professor.

Yeah.

And you went to a few— you went to a few youth church groups with your friends too.

I went to youth group with my friend a couple times. I also went to synagogue. That was more fun.

It was.

Yeah.

Okay.

With my friend Julia. Anyway.

Anywho.

That's where I got Liberty, at a Jewish bazaar.

At synagogue? Oh, wow.

Yeah.

Wow, wow, wow. Yeah.

All right. Okay. Love you.

Love you.