In this episode of The Parnas Perspective, Aaron Parnas reports on the final days before the midterm elections. He argues that Donald Trump is becoming a lame duck president, and says Republicans privately acknowledge they have lost the House.
He plays a clip of Senator Tim Scott arguing that the Trump agenda is on the ballot, then reviews early voting figures in North Carolina, where Democrats lead. Parnas also discusses Trump's remarks at a Mar-a-Lago party and his reaction to reporters' questions about Iran.
He closes with his own predictions for Election Night.
In this episode Aaron Parnas
This episode on the midterms and Trump's Mar-a-Lago party was made with HappyScribe technology, the same kind behind Teams AI note taker.
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The lamest of the lame ducks. That's what they're saying Donald Trump is about to be in just 48 hours. 48 hours away from the end of the Trump presidency as we know it. What do I mean by that? Well, Trump is still going to be in the White House doing arts and crafts in the Oval Office, building his White House ballroom without permission. But in the Congress, his agenda will be effectively stalled. In the courts, him and his children will be lining up one by one to fight subpoenas.
And his advisors? Well, privately they say, "This is essentially the beginning of the end." We're 48 hours away from effectively making Donald Trump not just a lame duck president, but the lamest of the lame ducks. Because no one is going to want to be associated with him after Tuesday. Assuming, of course, Democrats win the House and/or the Senate, and they only need to win one to make it happen. Now, privately, Republicans acknowledge that the House is gone. It's lost.
The Senate remains a toss-up in many respects. And we're going to have election night coverage every single step of the way, so tune in here, 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Tuesday night. And if you can, subscribe, as we're on the road to a million subscribers. We don't do that AIBS or clickbait. We're just going to tell you the facts. Tell you the news. Because right now, there's a lot of concern inside Republican circles. And like, comment, share. The president is fearful. He's fearful of what's to come. He's preparing significant strikes on Iran, suggesting that he will only strike Iran, or he'll do larger strikes if Republicans lose.
Trying to dissuade voters from going to the polls to vote against his agenda, but it is, in fact, his agenda. You don't have to take it from me, by the way. You can take it from Tim Scott, a Republican senator who's appeared on stage with Donald Trump numerous times and is making clear that who you're voting for is not necessarily the candidate on the ballot, but what you're voting for is the Trump agenda. Take a listen.
To it, though. Let me ask you, broadly speaking, you have been on the campaign trail, as you just laid out, in the Senate battleground.
Yes, ma'am.
With President Trump. So let me ask you, is a vote for a Republican candidate a vote for the Trump agenda?
There's no doubt that President Trump has said himself that the midterm election is about him. He's asked for all Republican voters, frankly, independent common-sense Americans, to vote for the Republican ticket. Here's why. He said when he's not on the ballot, there's about a 49.2% drop in enthusiasm and support. That's why he's saying he's on the ballot. Number two, I would tell you that his agenda, without any question, is on the ballot. And number three, holding the Senate as a Republican majority is in the best interest of this country.
That's why I call the Senate the firewall. America is on the ballot. Abdul El-Sayed.
Trump is on the ballot. America is on the ballot. His policies are in the ballot. And if you want to know how Republicans are reacting, they're not voting. Take a look at this. I mean, and this is stunning. This really is stunning. This doesn't—we don't know who they voted for, right versus left, Democrat versus Republican. We just know their party registration. North Carolina is a state that Donald Trump won in 2024. A state that Kamala Harris wanted to win, couldn't. Okay? It's a traditionally kind of toss-up, swingy state, but has a Republican senator, two Republican senators, by the way.
But look at this. Republicans did not win a single day of early voting. Even when high-propensity voters were red, those gains were overwhelmed by exceptionally blue turnout among less frequent voters. In 2024, a presidential year, Republicans led by 41,000 votes at the end of early voting. In 2026, Democrats are leading by 343,000 votes. 343,000 votes.
That right there, in my opinion, is, if all 343,000 voted Democrat, voted for Roy Cooper in the Senate race, for example, or even, let's say, 300,000 of them, 280,000 of them, that is likely more than enough of a firewall to keep Roy Cooper in higher office and send him to the United States Senate. Now, obviously, this is not the end. Nowhere close. And you still have Election Day. And if you haven't voted, you've got to go out and vote and make your voice heard in North Carolina and across the country.
There is no race. No race. That is a foregone conclusion. But these numbers are as good as you can have for Democrats right now. And if you want to know why, it's because the Trump agenda is deeply unpopular. Last night, Donald Trump held this event at Mar-a-Lago, a costume party for Halloween where caviar was being served. Many people are saying this is a let-them-eat-cake moment right before the midterm elections.
Because at this party, he snapped. He snapped at none other than reporters for asking questions, simple questions, by the way, of, well, what's happening with Iran. Take a listen.
I have pressed my rich members. They spent all day getting ready. And look at these guys. These are the big—quiet for a second. These are the biggest guys on Wall Street. And they spent all day long getting ready. I only had 10 minutes, so I just put on a red tie.
Do you expect to go back to war against Iran as soon as this week?
Not quite.
You said go back to war with Iran. You said not until after.
Why would you ask such a stupid question? New York Times. Okay, let's say I did. Would I tell you? I mean, you answered. Do you expect to go—he didn't ask me. Do I expect to go back to war next week? Let's say I did. Would I tell you? Let's say I didn't. Would I tell you? I can't tell you anything.
Ukraine has to be—
It's not a question for the New York Times. Now, there's a good photographer in the New York Times.
Such a stupid question. Such a stupid question. But if you didn't hear what he said at the beginning of his answer, he said, "All of Wall Street's here. All of my, quote, rich members are here." At a party with caviar. At a party with dancers. At a party with costumes. In an opulent gold ballroom. What we're seeing in real time is I don't—I don't think this is a let-them-eat-cake moment as much as it is a Hunger Games moment. In Pan Am, the capital, Mar-a-Lago, the capital of the Trump presidency, you have people dressed up.
You have people dancing. You have people eating caviar. Rich, wealthy people. Across the country, in districts across the country, you have the opposite. Food banks are running out of food. SNAP recipients are being kicked off of their SNAP. Affordable Care Act recipients are seeing their premiums rise 13% next year. It's more than just let-them-eat-cake. It's much more than that. And that's why you see numbers like what I showed you earlier in North Carolina.
That's why you see people excited to get the current Republicans out of office. Now, what will happen Tuesday night? Everyone asks me, "What are my predictions?" I don't know. Truthfully, I don't know. If I was a betting man, and sometimes I am, I think the House will be won by Democrats. But crazier things have happened. As far as the United States Senate, that's a toss-up. It can go either way. And that right there is why people still need to vote.
You need to vote like your future depends on it, because it does, in so many respects. So we're going to have some more updates for you throughout the day into the evening hours. And we're going live, Election Night, which I hope to see you all there. If you can, subscribe to support this work. Like, comment, share. Get the word out. And let's go kick ass at the polls. Let's make our voices heard.
Aaron Parnas reports on the news of the day.
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