Transcript of Part 1: Bill’s NBA Six-Pack. Plus Peter Schrager on the Jets’ Downfall, Buffalo’s Leap, and DRAKE MAYE.

Coming up, a two-part pod. This is part one. We're going to talk some basketball, talk some football next. We're also brought to by the Ringer Podcast Network. If you missed it, we put up a new rewatchables on Monday. We did the replacements. You can watch that on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well. You can watch all the videos and clips from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. This is going to be a two-part podcast. We just had too much content for you today. So part one, I'm doing an NBA six-pack at the top. And then our old friend Peter Schrager is coming on to talk about all of the NFL, things we're super surprised by, things we're delighted by, where we stand after 11 weeks, even some coach stuff. So that's going to be part one. And then part two is going to be Chris Ryan and Joe House and I talking about the Sixers and what the hell is going on there. Then House and I are going to be some million dollar pics. We're going to try to get both these parts up as soon as we possibly can. That's the plan.

This is part one. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, we're going to start with an NBA six-pack. I haven't done this in a while. I haven't talked to in over a week, which is my fault. I'm not perfect. I have six things that I wanted to throw at you. None of them have to do with the Philadelphia 76ers because we're going to be talking about them later today with Chris Ryan and Joe House. First thing, the Clippers Without Paul George. I took the under as a lock before the season or Over Under podcast with the Clippers, 37 and a half. I didn't see how they were going to have enough scoring, which is James Hard and Norman Powell. I didn't understand why they didn't give Paul George four years max. You're already all in with this Kauai contract. Why not just go all the way in on your team? Well, what did they know? I remember mentioning this in one of the podcasts. It's like, Balmer, guy who just spends money like absolute fucking crazy. And this Paul George thing was too rich for his blood. What did they know? You have an athlete on your team, in this case for five full years, half a decade.

And your trainers see stuff, your coaching staff sees stuff. Something about it made them a little wary of committing to a guy in his mid-30s who had a major awful broken leg, some other knee stuff. Something made them go, this time, it's too rich for our blood, which is interesting because they did this with Blake Griffin. When they signed Blake Griffin to a big max deal and then traded him four months later, and it was like, Oh, my God, they traded Blake Griffin. What are they doing? And then what happened? Blake Griffin's body broke down within two years. You watch Paul George. Now, He hyper extended the same knee twice. So you could say, Oh, that's a little fluky. When he came back from the injury between those two injuries, he didn't look great. And if you're a Sixers fan staring at that max contract, I think you're in a complete panic. But here's why you can't celebrate too much with the Clippers. They did offer Paul George three years for 150. So it's not like they were like, We're out. We want no part of the Paul George business. They wanted it at their price.

What was smart was when they had a chance to sign and trade them, which is something that teams have done a lot in the past where they was like, Well, we have this asset. We got to turn it. And all of a sudden, they're taking these contracts back. They were smart enough not to do that. They didn't do it with Golden State, had some possible trades. Denver, they supposedly talked to. So they turned the Paul George money into Derek Jones and Chris Dunn, $45 million for three years. So that's about one-third of what Paul George would have cost. And then nick Patum, $1.4.9. It looks like he might be washed. But they have the ability now to slap contracts for or bigger deals, slap them together, whatever. The big bet was, can Norman Powell shoulder someone that's buried? He actually has. I've been watching them because I've been running against them because I love being right. They're nine and seven. They've had a tough schedule. It's been like the opposite of a Laker schedule. You know it's true, Lakers fans. You know this win streak, like you haven't played anybody. You know that's true, deep down.

Clippers, nine and seven. They played Houston twice. They played Golden State twice. They played Phoenix twice. They played OKC, Sacramento, Orlando, and Denver. There's not nothing going on here. I'll tell you one other thing. I think the arena is really good. They played the Warriors last Monday, and I really wanted to go, and we had a Spotify thing I couldn't go. Somebody who was there told me something, somebody that's worked for the team for a while, told me something that I thought was a great point. It was the first Warriors game the Clippers have had as a home game where the Warriors fans didn't drown out the Clipper fans. Where it actually felt like a Clippers Home game, and they ended up winning. It was a classic Clippers Warriors game where the warriors played that crap, the Clippers looked great. Then all of a sudden, the warriors were scrapping together, trying to win at the end. They didn't. But whatever Balmer did with that arena, which is really cool, and the wall and the fans close together and trying to monitor some of the ticket stuff. It actually worked in that Warriors game. I'm a little more bullish on the Clippers than I used to be.

That's the first one. Speaking of the Warriors, it's a tiny one, second in the six-pack. The DeAnthony Mountain injury was a really, really secretly huge injury. There's been so many injuries this year. It got lost in the shuffle, but he had really unlocked them. He was really good next to Curry. He was an excellent on-ball defender, a good shooter. They were fourth in defensive rating before he got hurt, and he was a great fit with Curry. He hurt his knee and was like, Then they said it was a sprained ACL. Then all of a sudden, he's getting ACL surgery. It just hurts them. They're not the same team. They've been trying to throw people in that spot, and we'll see how it goes with them. But he was the perfect fit, and it exposed the secret issue with Clay the last couple of years where he couldn't guard anybody. If you have Curry, that doesn't need to be totally protected because he's a really good off-ball defender. But you want somebody else taking that burden of going against the Ja Moran types night after night. Melton was doing it. I'm just watching it because I loved how the Warriors played the last time we did the power pole.

I was talking about how I had them as a sleeper, but I really thought maybe they could be a real contender, and they still might be. But the Melton thing definitely hurts, so I didn't want to not mention that. Third thing for the six-pack, Houston. They have the look I know the look. They have the look. Third defensive rating, 11th offense. The Terror Twins, Ahmed Thompson and Tarhees, have been my... They're not the League pack. They're not like best Oscar winner, best actor. I'm not even positive they're best supporting actor, but there's something, I don't know what Oscar they would win. They come in and they flip these games. They just have so much athleticism and so much defense between those two. They're terrifying. It's a little like what Orlando had last year. It's a little like what OKC has sometimes. But it's something to watch, and especially if you're gambling on games and you like player props and stuff. Watch when Houston goes against team, teams that have good swings. They played Indiana, Matheron had eight points. They played Chicago, Lovina had 15. They had back to backs against the Clippers. This is what really jumped out to me because I actually watched those games.

Harden was fucking useless against Houston between Brooks and then the Terror Twins. You could see him like, I'm tapping out. I don't like this. I'm not having a good time. Harden and Powell on back-to-back games were 21 for 58, 12 free throw attempts total, and they only scored 60 points. Houston swept those I just think defensively, there's really something here. I said this when we did the power pull. I don't even think they know what their team has yet. Like, Jabbari Smith will have some games where he plays 22 minutes, only scores four points. He's a guy that if you're going to say who is not going to be on this team in a year, maybe that's the guy because I think he's a real asset. They were playing small ball five with him last year. He's only 9.7 million this year. He could be the focal point of a trade if they wanted to make a trade. They've already said publicly they don't want to make a trade, that they're happy to have the what Orlando had last year with OKC had two years ago of we're young, we're hungry, let's see where this goes, which I think is the right mentality.

But they do have a lot of pics. They do have Jibari as the center piece of if you're actually getting a player back in the trade. So I'm just watching them, and I'm watching them in general because I really like them. Tuesday night, Houston at Minnesota with the Terra Twins and Brooks going against Edwards is, I think, the League Pass game of the year that is in Celtics, Cleveland, because I don't think that was a League Pass game. But I want to see them go toe to toe with that Minnesota team. Houston, to me, is a top five team in the West. I'm taking them very seriously, and I love the Terra Twins. So that's my third thing. Fourth thing, just a question. Did heat culture die when they didn't get deemed? Because here's what's happened since. Remember, they had already drafted Haukes, which This is the last really smart, heat moment we've had. Since then, the 2024 next, last year's Knicks team, stole their identity as the defense chemistry overachieving team. They had a terrible year. Reilly got mad at Butler. The Rozier trade turned out to be blah. I'll admit, I like the Rozier trade for them.

He's playing great for Charlotte. He's been blah for them. He's averaging 13 points a game. There's times out there, he might be the Tobias Harris Award, Rosillo's joke about, Oh, I didn't realize Terry was out there. He's had some moments like that. Bam's gone backwards. Now, I assume that's going to turn around, but I'm just pointing out he doesn't look like a top 15 player in the league. Nikola Jovich, who they were all excited about, They're getting 24 points a game in a 49, 45, 88 shooting season from Tyler Hero. As we're taping this on a Thursday, they're 6-7. And Boston and Cleveland It seems like they're miles ahead of them. But the big thing for me, and a lot of people have talked about this week, and this is like, the Heat fans get mad every time I talk about the Heat. They did the 15th pick in the draft. They drafted Ware, the center who barely plays, and they passed on back-to-back picks. Jared McCain goes to Philly and Connect goes to the Lakers. In the old days, the heat, if McCain was on the board at 15, forget about Connect. I like Connect, but I can see it.

He's 24. They already have shooters who don't really play defense. I get it. Mccain was the most Miami pick. I couldn't believe it in the moment. If you go back to my Twitter feed, I was going nuts about McCain. I thought like, I was like, I know this guy's good because he was an LA kid. I watched him play in high school a bunch of times. He was my favorite post-latter guy in the draft by far. I would bet anything McCain is going to be a good player. And they passed on them. And maybe it's nothing. Everybody misses on picks. They had a hero. They took Bam. They took Hauke. They're clearly They're really good at drafting. And they whift on this pick with two guys that really, really, really could have helped them. Big picture, I'm just not afraid of the heat anymore. I think I finally... It's like the horror movie where you're not looking under your bed. I'm just not looking under my bed anymore with the heat. Great run, 2000, 2023, and it's over. We'll see what they do with it. But that McCain Connect thing is like, symbolic of something that shifted with those guys.

Fifth thing on the six-pack. The NBA All-Star Game, Shams Sharania, now a VSPN, reported that they're going to do a four-team tournament this year, and they're going to have three All-Star teams, eight players each, and then they're going to have the winner of the rookie sophomore game. It's going to be four teams competing, semifinal games up to 40 points, first team to 40, I guess, wins, finals games up to 25 points. As usual, they didn't consult with me, even though I would put my track record of great, goofy NBA ideas against anyone in the 21st century. I just would just go look at the track record. It's there. I don't know why the rookie sophomore guys are in this, and I don't know why each team has eight players. If they had asked me, What do you think? I would have said four All-Star teams, six players each, so there's one sub. Has anybody who made this decision ever played pick-up basketball? Who has three subs in pick-up basketball? It sucks. I remember playing in a league one year in Boston when we had nine players, and it was short games, and you're just shuttling guys in and out like it was hockey, and it sucked.

I would have done four All-Star teams. I would have done six players each. Had the signature players of the league be the captain of those teams. So you have Steph, you have Yannis, you have LeBron, and maybe Jokuj, however you want to do it. Sorry, Embi, did you make the cut? And done six players, then each player is a sub. And by the way, if somebody gets hurt, you still have five players. Maybe there's a 25th All-Star who's the emergency QB who can come in at any point if two guys hurt. I just don't get the eight players thing. I don't understand why anybody wants to watch the rookie sophomore guys playing against these dudes. Not to mention, those guys are actually going to be really trying. And maybe that's why they did it. Maybe they wanted the All-stars to try against the rookie sophomores. But that's a pretty big spot to throw a rookie team in, especially when you have the draft that we had this year, that was pretty uninspired. The sophomores, whatever. But it was an easy tweak. I don't know how they fucked this up. As usual, they didn't ask me.

Sixth and last. I think Milwaukee is going to be fine. That's where I landed. I don't think they're going to win the title. I don't even think they're necessarily going to make the Eastern Finals, but I didn't think that before the season. What was in play for the first three weeks was this could be an all-time disaster. They're going to have to trade Giannis. It just felt like all the darkest pieces of the season were sitting there. Giannis is averaging a 32, 12, and 6. It's like his seven straight year where he's looked like one of the three best players in the league at worst. Dame has not shot the ball well, and they're still six and nine with three horrible losses. One that actually seemed like there should have been a criminal investigation with the officiating. But six and nine easily could be nine and six, three of the dumbest losses of the season. Green and Prince, two swing guys for them, both shooting 50% from three. So Doc has just figured out, I'm probably just going to give up defense with the swings. I just want to make sure guys can make shots.

That's why somebody like AJ Green is playing. And they're not a top 14. I don't think they're there with Boston, Cleveland, New York, or Orlando. But after that, I don't know who I'd like more than Giannis and the Bucks. I'd probably have them fifth. And all they need to do is get to the playoffs. And then you have Giannis, and you can try to stay healthy, and maybe you can find one shooter. They're minus 700 for the playoffs on FanDuel, which I think is notable. I should also mention FanDuel does not have odds for Philly to make the playoffs. You literally can't find them because that's how crazy this Philly season has been. But I'm leaning toward Milwaukee is probably okay. Maybe they're not one of the favorites, but they're okay. This isn't going to be a catastrophe of the season. Philly is not okay. We're going to be talking about that later. So that's a six-pack for the NBA. But I have to bring in Steve Cerruti, Orlando Magic fan, producer of the pod, because there's some Franz Wagner atoning we have to do. I handed my Ringer 100 list over a week ago.

I think I had Franz in the low '60s. The list itself didn't do very well. And all Franz has done over the last two weeks has said, not only are we not going to miss Paulo, but I'm actually an All-MBA player, and sign me up for this list. Is this a fluke or is this real?

I think it's real. I will say my biggest gripe with Franz is that in the past with Paulo, when he would go on these quarter stretches where he'd clearly be the guy on a streak, they just wouldn't give him the ball or he wouldn't be proactive and be like, No, I'm that dude right now. Paulo take a step back. I think this... You never want to say an injury is a blessing in disguise, but I feel like Franz has found his groove again because he's just the guy now. I'm hoping And in the long term, this is going to translate to a little bit taking some of the pressure off of Paulo and Franz realizing, Hey, there are stretches where I can be that dude. Because he's averaging 37 and 6. A six-game winning streak, obviously, we're recording this after the loss against the Clippers last night, and he didn't have a great game, but it's okay. He had six great games. This is everything that we wanted a max player. This is everything that we thought he was going to be. And I'm looking at the Ringer rankings right now. It's doing my guy a disservice.

It He really is.

Where did he end up in the Ringer rankings? In the '50s? He's 48.

Wow. He's behind Scottie Barnes. He's behind... I mean, there are just some guys. He's behind Dame, and he's behind Paul George. I know there's the name recognition, but you're telling me the Sixers right now, not for the next two, three, four, five years. This year, the Sixers would much rather have Franz than Paul George. The Bucks would much rather have Franz than Damian Lillard. I don't even think it's close. I know the name thing, we want to give those guys respect, but that's insane.

In our defense, when the first couple of weeks, Franz couldn't hit a three, and it's like, What's going on? Where's Team Germany, Franz? Is that guy coming back?

It's around 35% right now. It's not terrible. It could be better. I still think it could be improved, but he's fine.

Team Germany, Franz, seems like he's back.

It's pretty exciting. Yeah, well, listen, he's got his brother. He doesn't need Dennis Schroeder. He proved, who knows, the trade deadline still. Maybe the magic will be looking for a point guard. I hope it's not him. But he just looks so much more confident, man. And it's not even that the defense is really good. He's one of... I have a couple of stats here. Hold on. He's one of eight players averaging 25 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4.5 steals a game. That's Luca, Dierren Fox, SGA, Harden, Jokic, Tatum, and Jalen Williams. He's on very impressive lists. So I just love this. It's like the Franz Renaissance thing proving he's a max player. And who knows? Paulo, he's be out probably at least another month or so. So this is the thing. It's probably going to keep rolling.

Yeah. The thing you needed was with Palo going out, how can Orlando keep their spot as either the third or the fourth seed? How can you make sure you stay in the... You're going to win the division, although I don't even know if winning the division matters anymore. But nine and seven, losing your best guy for God knows how long is not a bad place to be. We're taping this before the Lakers game, but the pod is going up for the Lakers game. The thing with the Lakers, they don't have really anyone on their roster to guard good scoring wings like us or good point guards, by the way. They've had this stretch where they've won some games. But part of the reason they're winning the games is because they can play this lineup with Connect and Reeves and LeBron and Dilo altogether because they don't have to worry about guarding anyone. I want to see if Franz can light up the Lakers tonight because I think he can. It's the type of guy that I don't even know who they'd have to guard him. So we'll see. I'm glad Franz is back. I'm glad for your sanity.

You're back in on the max player bandwagon. You're back. We flip-flops a little this summer, but you're back now.

It's good to have you. Then the other thing is Anthony Black, the last time we talked about this, continues to be making strides. So they're laying the foundation. They're not in the Cleveland, Boston swimming pool, but they're at the pool right next to it doing laps.

No, but you know what? I was talking to a buddy about this. The East is weird because I think before the season, we were like, Hey, it's Boston. Then it's the next two through eight or nine. We're like, I don't know, it could be between 2-3 games. It could be the difference at the end of the season. Now, it feels totally different to me now. It feels like the Magic should get a home playoff series. The top four things should be a thing this year.

You have a home playoff series. That could be against Miami, that could be against Milwaukee. You want the home court, you want the game seven. And then when did they say Palos coming back?

Originally, I think it was 6-8 weeks, but that was a reevaluation period. So we still have another at month ago, which you know what? It's all right. Just, Franz is holding it down. I'm just hoping that there was a little bit of, hey, it's creeping into my mind of, can these two guys peak coexist together? They're both good together. And I'm just hoping because this team is so Frons dependent. Before he went out or before Paulo went down, I remember talking to Rahim about this. This team is going to be awful to watch. They might win some games, but awful. And they've been significantly better. So the hope is that Frons realizes that, Hey, I'm that dude, too. And I'm an all-star caliber player, which I've thought for a while now. So we'll see.

Yeah, I was wondering if they're going to be almost like the Steelers where they're winning 18 to 16 and getting six field goals, whatever the NBA version of that. But yeah, they've been a little more fun than that. All right, Saready, who's winning the college football Championship, by the way? Who do I bet on?

Oh, man. You could pick anything. Who would you bet on? Don't dip your toe into the Indiana waters because we were talking about that in Racilis pod the other day, and we set the internet on fire because everyone's mad because he I don't think Indiana is worthy of making the playoff even with a loss against Ohio State. I would say I think Oregon is still vulnerable. I still like Georgia, even though some of their weapons are bad. If I had to make a bet right now, and this is just not money aside, I still think Oregon is probably the pick, but it's wide open, man. That's what's cool about this whole year is that there's three, four, five, six teams that are all in that same area. But I'd go Oregon now. I love Dylan Gabriel. The quarterback is just a dude that wins games.

Oregon's plus 145. Georgia is 24 to one on Fandil.

Yeah.

The problem is Georgia is really good, but their quarterback has just been awful all season long. If they just get average quarterback play, they're probably better than everybody else.

All right. Well, that's it. I just did college football talk on the Bill Simmons podcast. There you go. We have Rosillo, we have McShea now. We have way better places to do it. But Saree, thank you. We're going to take a break and come back with some football. Sometimes in basketball, 30 points could be worth more than 30 30 points. Right now, you get a 30% profit boost from The Ringer with FanDuel's 30 on 30 during Friday's NBA Cup action. We're teaming up with America's number one sportsbook to give you a 30% profit boost when you either pick a player to score more than 30 points or bet on our new exclusive 30 on 30. Special markets like any game to have both teams to score 30 plus points in the first quarter. I messed around with this last week. I had a great time. I think I hit on Anthony Edwards. I missed on two others. But it was really fun to actually root. 30 points is perfect. You can check during the games. Like, oh, my God, my guy's got 27 points already. So there's a couple that jumped out to me. It's tough because you're thinking about the match up, who's playing who.

But Kam Thomas against Philadelphia, that was one. I like that idea. I like the idea of Curry against New Orleans. The odds won't be great, but I still like it. And then the only other one I have is Sacramento versus the Clippers. Seems like a great Dieran Fox spot. So let's go with those three. Whether you want to ride with my picks or make it your own, look for 30 on 30 in the FanDuel Sportsbook app or head to fanDuel. Com/bs for your chance to score a bigger path this Friday. Don't miss your chance to find out how much more 30 can be worth. The FanDuel is 30 on 30. Mulespeed 21 plus. And President Select states are 18 plus and President DC. Opt In Required bonus issue that non-requirable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including token expiration and max wage or amount. See terms at sportsbook. Fando. Com. Game problem call, 1-800. Gamble or visit rg-help. Com. All right, our old friend Peter Schrager is here. You can watch him on Good Morning Football. You can see him on Fox. The last time I saw him, We were in person doing a pod as the Jets were falling apart, and somehow that's still going.

We're not going to start with them, though. We are heading into week 12. There's a bunch of bye weeks. Thanksgiving's coming up. We're hitting that second stage of the NFL season. We know who's good, we know who's not good. We know there's going to be one surprise team coming. We have a sense of who the seven contenders are. Biggest surprise for you after 11 weeks, you can say anything. Then you're most shocked by.

The Jets.

You go the Jets. See, I feel like I picked the Jets to win the AFC East, but I also was fully aware of this alternate universe where everything went wrong, and that's what's happening. All right.

Just the fact that I haven't bought into the hype over here. I live in New York. I grew up with all Jets fans, and I've I've never been one to say, Well, this is the year. They drafted Denzel Mims. This is the year. They got Elijah Moore. This is going to be the year. Then I fell for it. I've said earlier- You fell for it hard.

There's MVP Rodgers videos of you on the internet's-Shameful.

And that whoever runs that freezing takes or that old takes exposed, he has no problem posting that every single time the Jets lose a game of me saying that Rodgers is going to be MVP. We all have those. We've got them out there. It's fine. I will say this. I felt so hard this year for the Jets because I looked at the AFC and I'm like, there's an opening here. I didn't think Buffalo was going to be what they were. I had a feeling Miami would take it down. And I thought, obviously, New England. I was like, this is the year there's a window, the Sees are parting and the talent. And the clip of us talking week one has gone viral. Again, has been reposted. And I still don't regret what I said. You go top to bottom on that roster. The names are outstanding. And I guess I got caught up in it. And it's not fantasy football. And there is something called chemistry. And when you fire your coach five weeks into the season, that's not always going to be the greatest decision. At the end of the day, I fell for it hard.

And I hand up. I fucked up. I was wrong. Jets suck. And it's a shame because they're going to start. They're going to try to rebuild this thing.

But that's what they said. By the way, everything you just said, we We could probably just insert Sixers, like as a voiceover for every piece of that. I fell for it. I didn't... Chemistry, I didn't realize it was going to go sideways, but we knew this was the risk with the Jets. Rogers is old. Rogers is coming off major surgery. The Son Reddick thing was weird. Salah had never had a winning season. They were trying to shoehorn this Rogers thing into the Jets. They're the Jets. Bad things happen with the Jets. I fell for it, too. I picked them over Buffalo. And what both of us missed is what Sal nailed before this season. What if this is the Josh Allen year and now it looks like it's the Josh Allen year?

He's your MVP. Through 12 weeks. Josh Allen is your MVP. And fantasy is so funny on these Sundays. I know it's shot and fraud almost, but his tweet is so prescient now that he did on the Monday of week one, where he's basically like, just having it on record right now, I think this Aaron Rodgers thing is going to be a massive failure and everyone's going to get fired at the end of the year. The only wrong thing about it was, it wasn't the end of the year, it was before even Thanksgiving, and he was right. So I was wrong on the Jets, and I'll take my beating. The thing that's been a pleasant surprise, and I didn't see it coming, was what we got in Pittsburgh. And I think it's a really cool story. And of course, they're playing as we record this, they're playing tonight. There's always weird things that happen on short weeks on Thursday nights and maybe they lose to the grounds.

Division matchup, Yeah, who knows? Goofy weather, the whole thing.

Overall, though, if you told me that Russell Wilson was going to take a visit with the Giants, was going to fly commercial to Pittsburgh, was going to sell his wearers as a potential future Hall of Famer to these teams and say, Who wants me? And that the Denver Broncos were going to pay 95% of his contract this season, no matter who he went to, because of what was already owed. And he would be the one leading the Pittsburgh Steelers into Thanksgiving as the one or two seating the AFC. I would have told you you're crazy.

Well, you could have told me I was crazy because I predicted all of those things before the season. It was one of my best ones. Where's freezing cold takes on that? Come on, guys. Maybe they should have smoking hot takes. Should be an alternate account of people just crushing preseason pics. Where's that account? I met the guy who does it. Lebron's right. He's social media too negative. Where's the positive? Where's the positive stuff about the media? Come on, LeBron. Lebron's out.

Lebron's out on social media.

He does this every year. It's like when my wife gets mad at one of her friends. I'm not talking to her again. And then six weeks later, they're hanging out.

28 years on social media. Now LeBron is out. Yeah, he's done. It's just too toxic. The guy's name was Fred Siegel. That's who does the cold takes. He reached out to me, came on Good Morning Football. He did a book. I'm like, I love this guy. Now, he's trying to murder my career. It's everything that comes out.

I think he's an equal opportunity murderer. It's where he's fashioned himself. I got to say, the most shocking thing for me is Buffalo. I'm not shocked that they're going to get to 10 wins because if you were picking the Jets over them, I thought there was only going to be one AFC East playoff team. I just thought the Jets had more stacked their way than Buffalo in this goofy year they're having. Buffalo winning the AFC East and the Jets thinking, not that surprising to me. But Buffalo being good is surprising. I don't really fully understand it. I don't know enough about the mechanics of how you get a defense going that seems pretty flimsy. And yet when you watch them, hats on the ball, sideline locked in, really well coached, really seems like they're across the board locked in, don't really have any weaknesses, which is crazy because they've had a lot of attrition, they've had injuries. I just don't fully understand it. Like, weird rookie receivers and young receivers or never did it before receiver, a hodgepodge running game with a bunch of runningbacks. I just don't fully get it.

They're so good. And what they've done is they've found ways to win games that they used to lose. So that Chiefs game, of course, they beaten the Chiefs three different times in the regular season. But there was that window where it's like, okay, here comes Kansas City. And after the third and one, they go, and I think they handed it to Ty Johnson for a one-yard loss. Terrible. Bad play. You're like, All right, fourth and two. Then remember last year in the playoffs, they trotted out the punt team and they ran a fake punt with DeMar Hamlin on fourth down. And that one was just confiable in that they couldn't stop Kansas City. Kansas City was going up and down the field. I think Mahomes scored in five of six possessions. All right, we did. Fine. Mcdermott took a beating. He became a punching bag. Everyone made their jokes. They had the courage to say, You know what? Screw it. We're going for it again. And if we fail and come up short and we lose, we'll deal with it Monday morning. Wait a second.

Do you think that was courage, though? Because sometimes I'm like, Why are they doing this? But usually I'm saying, Why are they doing this when your quarterback is like Jameis Winston? Or you have a rookie quarterback. You're like, why are they doing this? They're not good. They're up to. I like it. I thought Romo sniffed it out. He's like, Give the ball to Josh. Let him decide the game. I was like, I actually agree. Let him decide the game.

And of course, it works out. And Josh is Superman, and that's an amazing... It's one of the all-time of that rivalry. That's a play that goes on the list. If they'd kick the field goal and they'd gone up five, it reminds me a little bit of LaFleur against the Bucaneers in that AFC Championship game a few years back. It's like, We just got to stop them once and we get the ball back. They didn't want to do that. That's with scar tissue from the year before of not want to do that and getting burned on it with that fake punt.

So, McDurley- But you know what? It was a risky non-risk because they had a five-game lead in the AFC East. It's like, you lose that game. It's like, all right, so maybe we're going to be a three seed instead of a two seed. But it really wasn't a massive risk. If the Ravens did something like that this week when they're seven and four, and it's a must-win game against the Chargers. A little higher stakes on that one than I think Buffalo.

Yeah. I also think it was a gift for us in our world as a media because Kansas City wins that, then they have a three-game lead over Buffalo plus the tiebreaker. And it's like, all right, we've already got our playoff picture is wide open now. Buffalo now- Christmas Day is not going to suck. Christmas Day games is like an AFC semifinals. You've got the Texans and the Ravens, and you've got the Steelers and the Chiefs. I think It was a huge game. It was a huge win. As much as Josh Allen downplayed it, and I know a lot of people on Monday morning, our guy Kyle Bryant was like, as a Bills guy, he's like, That was nothing. Stop. Don't make a big deal of this. It was a week 11 game. In a hundred years, we'll forget about I felt the opposite. And traditionally, I'm the Chief's guy. I pick the Chiefs to win every year. And I've made a lot of bones in the playoffs. They're going on the road to Baltimore. They're going to win. They're going on the road to Buffalo last year. They're going to win. I thought that one.

I felt like Buffalo was the better team. They were more dynamic. They felt like they had more deep threats. And gosh, I thought they were a better coach, too. So I thought that was a big win for Buffalo.

Do you agree with my theory that they kept Kelsey in the garage for that game?

The Ferrari Sorry. I heard you talking about that with Sal.

It felt like, let's not show all our cards in this game by then. The thing I was most concerned about with the Chiefs, and especially listening to some pods and reading stuff over the next couple of days after the game, their tackles might not be good. And they figured out a way to scotch tape shit together. We've seen them do this a million times, but it seems like both tackles aren't really any good now. And I don't know if they can get something going from there, but from an offensive line standpoint, this feels like the shakiest they've been, right?

Yeah. Look, the last time their tackles gave us those questions was going to the Super Bowl against the Bucaneers, and they didn't have Fisher, they didn't have Schwartz, and we're like, All right. But they'll figure it out. And then the Bucaneers, obviously, manhandled them at the line of scrimage, and then they went home and lost their Super Bowl.

Where's freezing cold takes for that guy? We have multiple videos of us guaranteeing a Buc Super Bowl win. I don't see him digging those up. We were great on that.

Jesus. Freddie Siegel. Anyway, The other part of it is they tried to get worthy involved early. And I was like, a little bit of this being chipping. Like, the bills traded us this guy. We're going to get worthy involved. Then worthy steps out of bounds when He has the whole field, one foot, and you're like, That's not Chiefs football. That doesn't go that way.

By the way, that was Patriots football is what it was. I've watched that all year. The wide open guy stepping out of bounds, terrible blocking, stupid strategies. He's like, That's Pat's football right now.

I get worried about the Chiefs with that because their defense has led the way for them. Their special teams has been awesome. Now, Butker's down, and now the Spencer Schrader is going to have to make a couple of big kicks. We'll see. But who's scaring you besides Mahomes? You could say it's because, hey, when you need him, Kelsey's going to go 10 for 120 with two touch downs.

Maybe.

He hasn't been that guy. I know he had a couple of big statistical games the last few weeks, but I don't think Kelsey is doing like he was doing it a couple of years ago. Then You're throwing a ball to Noah gray and Justin Watson and Juju and Xavier worthy is a nice deep threat. But I just don't know if this Chief's team has enough firepower. It sounds crazy to say that with an Andy Reid offense that has Patrick Mahomes as a quarterback.

We said it last year in December, it was one of the... I think their bottom three explosive plays this year, which seems crazy for our Mahomes team. If you have Mahomes in fantasy, hasn't gone great. But we watched them reinvent themselves after that Christmas game, Christmas Eve game, when everyone else was against the Raiders. They immediately reinvent themselves. They're built, when the weather gets colder, that's going to be good for them, too. I don't think it's going to be as good for some of the other teams. I'm not panicking. And by the way, they almost won the game. And I do think if worthy hadn't stepped out of bounds, they'd probably win the game. But on the other hand, you're relying on worthy in these big spots. It's going to be the same situation in January.

Who'd you have Super Bowl? You had Lions winning it all?

I ended up with Lions over Texans.

Okay, still alive.

Then right before the season, I felt like the Chiefs had become undervalued, and I did a Lions Chief Super Bowl bet. That was like 30. All the Lion stuff was going to hit. 1c, NFC North. I think that's been the least surprising thing is the Lions, they were who they thought they were. It was the opposite of Danny Green. The lions were who we thought they were.

They were who we thought they were. I did Chiefs over Packers, and my packer's caveat was- You're not done with that. And I'm not done with that. And my packer's caveat was they're going to do it as a wild card because the lions are going to be the one seed and going to run away with this thing. So that's all still in play.

Detroit- But one thing on the packers, we're going to know this weekend, I think we're going to have a real feeling because they have a nice game against the Niners that They should win. We're going to be talking about a million dollar pitch later. If something good is going to happen in them in January, I need them to win the Niners game. And if they don't, I'm going to be probably tapping out.

Yeah. The lions have been An interesting one because it's been this locomotive, and they really will be one of the only teams in the league in 2024, where everyone's buddy in exchanging jerseys. They'll snap your neck. They don't care. I saw a stat. They scored more than 50 points three times from the year 1920 to the year 2023. They've already scored more than 50 points twice this year, and they have embarrassed teams. And they've also won close games, which is obviously the Vikings game with Jake Bates hitting those fields, and then the comeback game against the Texans. So they've won in a variety of different ways.

The five pick game.

Yeah, where they overcame golf's five interceptions and still had a found a way. So I like it that it's not just been '07 Patriots or 2013 Broncos where they just ripped every team apart. They've been in games, too, and they've won those as well.

And some adversity. It's not like everything went great this year. They lost Hutchinson. They're going down. It's huge. The best defensive front Four guy in the league. They lost their defensive captain two weeks ago, though. I like the David Log signing. I thought that was... I was surprised he got waived. I liked him a couple of years ago. James Williams got suspended. Goff had the five-pick game. It hasn't been perfect, but they're almost like a college football team, some games. They're not just beating teams. They're absolutely select. When you score seven straight touch downs to start a game, you're on a different level at that point.

Seven straight possessions. It's wild.

Have you seen the Super Bowl ads?

It's the first time ever in their history. Now, I don't know how far back these gambling sites go, but I saw it was the first time ever that they are the Super Bowl favorite, ever.

It has to be. I mean, with Eric Kramer and Barry Sanders, I don't think they're the favorites. Yeah, they're plus 350 right now. The Chiefs are 5 to 1. The Bills are plus 650. And then the Eagles are sitting there at 8 to 1. Houston's at 17 to 1. It does feel a little hodgepodgey. You If you look at some of the Super Bowl matchups because they have all the different matchups, and it's like... Let's say I still feel like the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl until they have actually lost the Super Bowl. It's still in my head. I'm always going to be afraid of that one for a lions thing, but the Chiefs to beat the Lions is 14 to 1. But you look at some of these other dopey ones. Chiefs to beat Arizona is 85 to 1. It's not insane that Arizona could make the I'm not really not ruling at anyone, is my point. As good as Detroit's looked, I'm not ruling at anyone. I'm just not.

Well, it's just that with Detroit, it's like, all right, let's say they have home field advantage. They went to playoff games there last year. They beat the Rams and they beat the Bucks. They did fine, and then they went on the road and lost. It's like how it usually works is you don't, with your rare exception of maybe the Eagles a couple of years ago with foals or the 99 Rams, where you just come out of literally nowhere and you're like, we're just going to win a Super Bowl. Usually, you have to go through the progression of You go and you go and you go to the playoffs and you lose a tough one, and then you win another round. Which is what they did last year.

They did it.

It's all there for them. I just have thoughts of Dan Campbell, high management, game management, close game, late, going up against a McVay, going up against maybe a Kyle Shanahan, who everyone has their own issues with at the end of games, but has been there also time and time again. It's that stuff. It's an intangible, and you can't do it until you do it. But Just as so many teams have gotten to the precipice and had to lose a couple of times before they got to that over the hump, maybe this is Detroit needing one more year. We'll see.

That was my case when I picked them, that there's actual history. I think there were four different instances of the team that got really close the year before, learned something, and then was able to apply it and either win the Super Bowl or come really close. I think it happened five times in the last three years.

I remember the Ravens lost to you guys. Lee Evans dropped the pass, and then Billy Billy Kundiff. We never Billy Kundiff. Yeah. Then the very next year, they're like, screw it. They go into Foxborough, they beat you guys, and then they go in and win the Super Bowl. That's a recent memory of a team that had to lose and then found a way to win.

Let's take a break, and there's a lot more to discuss. Well, now we fit the portion of the podcast where I make my guests talk about Drake May for 60 seconds. This is unbelievable. This whole week, Watching football Twitter, people like Orlowski waded in a couple of times. All the football experts, who's the guy Colin has? Kosele. He came in. Kosele, film guy. All the film guys are coming in. You guys don't realize what Drake Mays doing right now. You don't understand what's happening here. I've been going nuts. This is the most I've texted about the path since the Flake 8. This is the most excited I've been. F minus coaching staff, no receivers, can't really block, running backs that can't do anything. So this is where I make my guests talk about Drake May. So talk about Drake May.

He's been unbelievable. And I talked to McVay Monday morning.

Mcveigh was another one. Gosh.

Mcveigh called him a stud in that press conference. And I hit up Sean just to talk about their game, whatever. And then I also said, let's talk May. He was just like, that guy. I mean, they got their guy. That guy's unbelievable. What a performance. And the stat I got from my researcher at Good Morning Football, a great guy named Dante, says this was the second time in May's career that he threw the ball 40 times or more, completed at 70% of his passes. Only two other rookies in the history of the sport have done that. It's Justin Herbert and it's Joe Burrow. And like, Drake May has already done it twice. We're talking. He does 95% of the offense, which you've noted. It's just like, throw it on my shoulders. I'll figure it out.

They're not even running the right place for him. Half the time, you're like, What was that? Why did we do that?

What are we He's doing it with talent that might not be starting on other NFL rosters, which is, I think, a kind thing to say. The offensive line leaves a lot to be desired. The coaching isn't exactly the same.

The offensive line, like Cole Strange is coming back When Cole Strange is coming back. Where did you check new? He's back, baby. We have another guard.

It's coming. It's been really cool to see. In fact, this whole rookie class, and not to get off the Drake May conversation.

No, we're good. You gave me a We can move on now.

They've all had their moments. As great as Drake May was in the early window on Sunday, I know everyone was watching Bill's Chief. It's like, Bo Nicks was fucking amazing. I know.

He's gotten better every week for six weeks.

And Mustache Nicks Johnston was doing the game and he dropped his little bucket. I'm like, Oh, I didn't know that. Moose is like, We spoke to Sean Payton in the production meeting, which we always talk about the value of the production meeting, whether you're there or you're not, believe it or not. He said he like Nicks more than all these rookie quarterbacks in the I'm like, That's crazy. He was the sixth one taken.

Wow.

Yet, I believe it. It's the perfect match. There was no crazy ramp up period for him. He's 26 years old. He's played in '61 College games. He's seen it all. He's played at big programs, Auburn and Oregon. He's had failure. He's had success. He's in the Senior Bowl. Sean Payton does not want to work with a raw product, an unpolished guy that he's got to frustrate himself with. He wants him to run his offense as an avatar of himself. Here's what you're going to do and do it. There was a pass he had to Courtland Sutton where it was a play-action pass, rolled right, bumped it twice, and then dropped it in the bucket to Sutton over AJ Tarrell. I'm like, That's a 10-year vet play that he just did, and he's doing it. I say all this because May is having moments. Nix is having moments. Of course, we did Jaden. Caleb has been good, and we don't know what we're going to get from Pennington.

Caleb's been okay.

He's been sacked 44 times. He's been sacked 44 times. It's the most since they David Kahr in his rookie year. Caleb, I can give Caleb a lot of mulligans on this season. I feel like he's been given a tough draw this whole way, whether it be the offensive- Wasn't tougher than Drake May. Fair. You saw what Gruden said. Gruden said I'd rather have Drake May than Caleb. I'm like, It's all over the map.

I loved it. Gruden. We invited him to Superstar Drake May Island. We're handing out condos right now. Or Lowski has one.

But I do have to ask you, did we not... Okay, and I'm not trying to go and be viral for everyone else here. But did we not go down this road with Mac Jones, you and I, before? But this one feels a little different.

It feels... It's completely different. Okay. Mac Jones, it was like, really good game manager. This guy can keep us going. He can make some throws. And this McMay thing, he's doing it despite literally everybody else in every fashion. I also think it seems like he's won the locker room over, too. How about he gets to the press conference two weeks ago.

He's like, Everyone, put your phones down. I would just like to say, how about that defense? Let's call it up. I'm like, This is a 22-year-old kid. Yeah.

Now, he's figured out all those pieces. You could tell from the other coaches and the players that are going against them, some of the quotes. Whereas with Mac, it was like, Yeah, it's pretty good. It was never like this. But Mac, I don't know what happened to Mac. I still feel like there's a sliding doors universe. It really started when Belichick benched him for a lot of that win Buffalo game. Remember that? His rookie year when it was like 40 down-hour wins. It was never the same, but there was a... He played a Colts, I think on a Sunday night, and the Colts just defended him a certain way, and it was like it immediately broke him. They were like, throw over us.

I think I remember. I think it was a Saturday game. Saturday game, maybe it was. It was a Saturday night game on NFL Network. The defense and the special teams won the game for the Colts. It was like, Oh, there's that. I would add with Drake May, and you and I have talked about I'm not sure on this podcast or just you and I talking. The Patriots, they love this guy in the building, and it goes from top to bottom, front office. I know the impression he made because I know a lot of the folks in that building. When he signed his rookie contract, he showed up and it All his brothers showed up and his high school girlfriend showed up. It was this big deal. I got a text from someone in the building like, That's such a Schrager, stupid intangible thing that if he stinks, what was the point of him talking about it? They loved it. They were like, This is what we want. We want someone who wants to put his roots down here and we can just build around this guy. He is as loyal as it comes to family, to his friends, to his faith.

It's all the right stuff on paper. Then now you see it on the field and it's like, Oh, these guys are going to rally behind this guy for 10 years.

When Nate Tice was comparing me to Elway, that was the comp part because I couldn't quite get there with the Josh Alex because it was being up. All right, we talked too much about him. I can't wait 10 years from now when he's bitter because 93-year-old Kraft is spending the least amount of money on the team out of the 32 owners. I don't know. Right now, he's in that young, loyal, puppy stage that is just so great to watch.

I do like how this team has responded. We go back and forth. I know you're the Patriot's voice, but Belichick and Lombardi and Patricia were filling themselves a little bit after that soft comment, and they were joking, and they were making their snide comments, and I felt it. I understand. They've a couple of games, and the players seem to be playing for Mayo. Whether or not he's a nexus or he's a genius, or they have ping-pong in the locker room or what. This has been vacillating back and forth. There's obviously Kraft and Belichick lines here, and it's like, I don't know where I am on it.

Well, this was a better argument a week ago. The coaching last week was an F minus, minus, minus. I know. It's not been good. It was probably the worst coaching they've had all year. I said it straight up, it's not been good. They're alive dog this week, though. They're plus seven in Miami. I don't know. I just think week to week, they're going to be really hard to predict because they easily could have beaten the Rams last week. They were up on the Rams. Yeah. By the way, let's talk about the Rams for a second because you're pretty wired in with them. Pretty lucky to beat the paths. A team that made a ton of mistakes, that the coaching was abysmal. Then they're playing the Eagles this week. All my instincts should be like, I'm taking the Eagles. The Rams are fraudulent. And yet I like McVay against the Eagles. I don't know why. I don't know what it is, but him against FanDio I love the way Stafford played last week. I thought he was awesome. Their receivers are back. They can run the ball. Williams is really crafty. There were times when it felt like the pats had him behind the line, and he would just figure out how to get five yards anyway.

And then their defensive line can really collapse the pocket and do some stuff. So I look at that. I think that's one of the hardest games to figure out. I don't know if I'm going to be putting a million dollar pick, but are the Rams a playoff team to you?

That loss to Miami on Monday Night Football is really a slap in the face to everyone who got on that bandwagon. That's maybe the worst loss any team's had this season. It's just surprising. You had a couple of wins in a row, you're back in this thing, and then here comes this Dolphins team who just kicked their ass on national television in their building Patriots, they should have won. They did win. It wasn't easy. You get back to this one. Now, the testament to the Rams is that Aaron Donald retires, and the thought is their defense is going to go down. They drafted Verse. He's probably your defensive player the year from the hooky side. All over the place. It's either him or Mitchell.

Every week, all over the place. He's awesome. Can't miss him.

Braden Fiske is the other one, also from Florida State, second rounder. Their third round pick was Kam Kinchin, who's had two huge picks this season, the pick six against Seattle and Another interception that game. And then the game winning the interception against you guys last week. Then they got this guy, Omar Spates, who's undrafted and where's number 48 and is all over the field and had the big fourth down stop against Seattle in overtime. Now, what I'm saying is with all this, it's like, you could do the F them picks and you can be super aggressive, and you can go and make... You better nail the draft. And they have nailed the draft, and they found a way to recover from Aaron Donald retiring and no first round pick for the last seven years. They've been really good with these guys.

On that point, McFace said something interesting about how they didn't really scout May because they knew they had no chance of them. And I was wondering, is that an advantage when you either don't have first-round picks at all? So there's people like, you might as well just cross 40 guys you're not going to get, or you're just concentrating on a certain portion of the draft versus having to think about every round. I do wonder if that's a weird advantage that you wouldn't want, but you stumble into.

Sean had a really fun time this draft period. Now, quarterback was not going to happen. They were fine with the quarterback with Stafford, but this was his first first-round pick ever. So he was super excited. And I said, I'm good morning, Phil. I'm like, there is no chance that in his first time making a first-round pick, Sean McVay isn't taking an offensive player. Sure enough, they took Jared They took a defensive guy, second round, egg on my face. The guy that he loved, though, and I could say it now, and it's been reported, they loved Brock Bowers, the tight end out of Georgia. They loved him. And when he started slipping, McVay was getting the snappy fingers and like, What can we do? What can we do? I believe they've made some phone calls to move up to get Bauers. It's a great what if because Brock Bowers is now having the best rookie tight end season ever on an irrelevant players team.

Ten to 13 targets a week on a That's an awful team.

The fact is, though, is what you're saying. They weren't going quarterback, but McVeigh finally had a chance to look at blue-chip talent, first-round talent in a real way. Not in a, Well, there's a chance someone might slip or we might trade up. And he really enjoyed the process. So as much as an advantage as it might be to have a second round pick and not have to worry about the first round so you can look at deeper cut, lower. It was cool for him to get that. And then the scouts, they were all in on verse. Credit to Les Sneed and his guys. If verse falls that far, we've got to find a way to get a new cornerstone defensive player. And I think they found him.

Well, there was that one year when they didn't have Cole. They were looking at Cole Strange because they were picking in the third round and the pats took him. Mcfay is like, Wait, Cole Strange just went in the first round? We were looking at him and- Regrettable moment. Oh, my God. We might have fucked that pickup. Mcfay is done that this guy went in the top 30.

He came out the next day and was like, No, no, no, no, no, I think they had.

Nobody's believed you on that one. But the flip side was he came all the way around on Jake Bay. So the Rams are plus 360 to make the playoffs. That seems tough. Seattle is plus 290 to make the playoffs. Arizona is minus 140 to make the playoffs. And then the most shocking one to me, which isn't that shocking, is the Niners plus money right now, plus 176. I want to talk about them really quick.

Yeah.

Mccaffry doesn't look like Mccaffry. The Niners are the classic, Oh, if I saw the sheet of paper, I'm like, Whoa, they have a lot of good guys. But if you actually watch the games. Iuk's gone. Kittle missed last week, so he's hit the George Kittle red flag stage of his season, which happens every year. Debo has been hurt a bunch of times already. Jowan Jennings had to make big plays last week, but McCafee Jeffrey just didn't seem special to me last week. I don't know if it's going to take some time to come back, or is this who he is? I don't think their offensive lines is good. I don't think their defenses is good. I feel like they're still getting basically last year's value being treated that way versus what I'm watching.

I don't think it's just last year. I think it's the institutional knowledge that over the last five years, they've started off being like three and four, two and three, four and four, and then they turn it on and they get to the playoffs, and they're a hard team to beat in the playoffs. I, too, am watching them, though, last week against Seattle, and nick Bosa clearly hurt. It's a hip. Another one. It's an oblique. Clearly not himself. You don't have Eric Armstead out there anymore. You're now a couple of years removed from not having Buckner out there anymore. All of a sudden, you look around, you're like, I don't even recognize this defense. It's Fred Warner doing everything he can as he always does. It's an injured Bosa, and it's a bunch of younger guys on the back end. And it's I'm not scared of this defense like I used to be when it was Demeco Ryans and Robert Salah marching up and down the sidelines, puffing out their chest. To give up an 80-year drive to Geno Smith after you held them most of the game, and then especially that final play is head scratching, not their way.

What's killing them is they lost a terrible, terrible loss in Los Angeles where the receiver Bell drops a pass that would put the game away at 21 to seven. That's in a division. They lost to the Cardinals. That's in a division. They've now lost to the Seahawks in the division. You got to really dig yourself out of the hole because I think their best way to the playoffs is going to be winning that division. Huge, massive, massive game this weekend against the packers. And to your point, they usually He really owned the packers. And Shanehan's had good numbers against LaFleur. I think he's four and two all time. But I go to the big games. I go to playoff games. I think Rahimo just scored another countdown from the NFC Championship game back in 2020. I remember a couple of years ago on a Saturday night, everyone, Rodgers was public enemy number one with the COVID stuff, and everyone was taking shots at him, and he comes in as the one seed, and the Niners come in with Trent Williams in a boom box out of the locker room, and they beat them in Lambo and shocked the one seed on a Saturday night.

It's like the Niners just have their number. I don't know if it's that same Niners team. The faces might be the same. The coach might still be the same. But do I have any confidence that that 49ers squad that I've seen the last few weeks limp to victories and just get by in their wins and then lose strange games they never lose is going to come in and just push around the packers? I don't.

One more piece. Packers almost beat them in that playoff game when it was a healthier Niners team. Last year? Probably should have won.

Yeah. Bad kicking, huh?

Little revenge game for them in this one. I'm with you. I think the packers, I think the ceiling of the team versus what we've seen, I still believe in this ceiling. I don't think they've played that well. I think they've had some weird stuff happen, really starting with that crazy Brazil game. It's a weird way to start the season. They got super lucky last week against the bears. They're also playing... One thing that worries me about that game for them is they're playing on Thursday night, too. They're playing the Dolphins, right? See this huge game at home against the Niners. But you also know that other game is lingering.

It's a Thanksgiving evening.

Thanksgiving night. I always wonder, the game before the game, the good news is they're playing the Dolphins that game. Pretty mediocre, Thanksgiving.

Dolphins have a couple of games in a row now.

No, I know. Yeah, but now they got Drake May coming to Miami. There's also some weird weather stuff this week, too.

Oh, there's snow. Snow in Green Bay. Jordan love leaves the league in Interceptions. You're not wrong. They don't look crisp.

Then Before the season- They met some like Dobbs got suspended for a game. They looked a little gaming at times, right?

I don't know if it's a positive or negative. Now, in the early 2000s, the Patriots had this where it was like, you didn't really have a true number one wide receiver. And the said that before the season. I look at all those guys number ones, but every week it's like Jaden Reid's week, then it's Dobbs' week, and last week, Watson went nuts. So I like that. There was a Tucker Kraft week. Oh, Tucker Kraft. He killed the Rams. The next week had two touch downs.

It does nothing anymore.

It's okay. It's all right. He'll find us saying, Josh Jacobs, obviously, is a weapon. We could just list names, but to me, they haven't even come close to gelling on offense yet, and they're still seven three, and they're perfectly where you want to be. Let the lions get all the headlines. Let the Vikings be sitting there with a tiebreaker over that. Let that be there. And then stretch run. Here comes the come running team, and the come running team might very well be the packers who got their shit together at the right time.

Right. Maybe as a five seed, maybe as a six seed. We're aligned on this one. There's a scenario in my head this weekend where I'm trying to think of the narrative on Monday morning as you're staring at Kyle. Yeah, Where it's like, packers, whoa. Do we believe this? Niners, oh, no. They're not going to make the playoffs. Holy shit. Then there's this sneaky Lions game. I'm going to, full disclosure, I'm putting the lines in a tease. But it does have like... Does it scare you? It's a little sneaky. It's a little sneaky because Richardson, I thought, played pretty well last week. I thought, in general, the Colts played pretty well. Everyone's so high in the lines right now, coming off this giant win. I think they can run the ball over them. I'm not worried about it, but I was just wondering, could this be five days from now? One of these weeks- One of these weeks-We're like, Hey, Packer is only a game back.

Totally. One of these weeks, the lines are going to have that game. But gosh, I thought the Titans might have gotten because Titans came in with the number one defense. They let them up. That's awesome. I thought the Jaguars may be playing for Doug Peterson's job with all that stuff beforehand.

No. I'm glad you brought him up because that That's the thing I was the most wrong about this season was... I was too. The Jets, I walked in with eyes wide open, fully knowing it was 50-50. I really believe in the Jags as an AFC playoff team. So did I. For me, it came down to them versus Denver for that last spot, and I couldn't get there with Denver because of the defense. Ironically, their defense, statistically, has been awesome. If you looked at it before the season, it's like, I don't see it. What's in here? I thought Jackson, but, and meanwhile, it's the opposite. They're one of the five worst teams in the league. Doug's doing the dead man walking. They didn't even fire him after a 52 to 6 loss.

They still might. We're doing this on Thursday. They've got buy week. I don't know how that's going to go down.

Well, this is going up fast. So maybe if this happens Thursday night, the pot of the RvF. So you think it's still in play?

I think it's still in play. I think after that loss on Sunday and all the reports that aren't coming from nobody that he was on the death watch anyway. They have a bye week. Who knows what the have going on this week. They might be wrestling or something else going on that they wanted to deal with in the first part of the week. But I certainly don't think I would be sleeping great if I'm Doug Peterson. No, he knows. Thursday, Friday, Saturday. He knows what's going on.

Yeah, he's got a statue. Are there any other coaching situations we should just be monitoring? Maybe guys not about to get fired, but situations that seem a little rockier than maybe it seems to the outside. Are we cool with Cleveland these days? What's going on there?

He's fine in Cleveland. Two-time Coach of the Year. I know the relationship he has with ownership, and there's full trust in him. So I think he's fine. There was an erroneous report that Dable was on the hot seat. I don't think That's true. I think Dable is set in New York.

Do we watch the bears the next couple of weeks? Or is that already a rap?

We watch the bears. We see how they respond. Anytime you fire a coordinator and things don't get better, the next person is not the coordinator. That's the stuff that we look at there.

Should I start doing that? Should I start firing inner circle people when I don't like what's going on to deflect blame? Is this work in the outside world? Not your fault. I don't know what's going on over there.

That's it. This podcast is a weird strategy.

I know. I've had to change my offensive coordinator. You're the head coach.

The sick part about that was Thomas Brown called a really nice game for the bears last week. Caleb looked good and energy was high, and it's all for not. They still lost.

But think about one of the things in the stories and the dialog after. It's like Thomas Brown simplified it for Caleb. He wanted to get rid of the ball fast. He got rid of the ball within three seconds. It's like, why didn't you do this three weeks ago? You could have asked me. Just cold-called me. I would have told you he was holding on the ball too long. You needed a new offensive coordinator to figure that out?

I'm a McVay guy, obviously. Thomas worked for McVay for many years over there in LA. Before that was a University of Georgia running back. Before that, played high school football against McVay. Mcvay has been singing about this guy for a decade. So he goes and gets his job at Carolina, a big promotion, flames out horribly, everyone gets fired. He goes to Chicago, and it's like he finally gets a chance to be an offensive coordinator. And he was high energy. He was, Let's go. And I'm wondering, I'm like, Shane Waldron, also respected guy, and Matt Iberflus, those are not high energy There's a not big vocal guys. Meanwhile, you look at the booth and Thomas Brown is super into it. He's pumping his fist. I'm like, As stupid as that sounds, sometimes the young quarterback needs that. Just a little bit of juice. Let's go. I'm curious to see how the rest of the season plays out for him.

That's what you did for me with Million Dollar Picks that year when I was in a slump and you came in. You had just had a ton of energy.

Midseason edition, baby.

Let's go. Well, Joe It seems like he's emerged as a possible head coaching dude. You have the Chargers defensive coordinator. Minter. He's in the mix for stuff. You have Belichick, you have Vrabel, you have Ben Johnson, who I think just wants to sit at the bar in a cocktail dress and have people buy him drinks. I'm not sure he actually ever wants to be a head coach in job.

Not even. Two years ago, he was a Carolina guy, and Teper was in on Ben Johnson. He didn't even take the interview. He's like, I'm good. Last year, I have it on pretty good source he was Washington's guy. They get on a private jet to Detroit to go meet with him again. And they find out while they're on a private jet that he's withdrawn his name from the interview process and he's going to stay in Detroit. I don't even know if he wants to be a head coach. And I don't think he loves the idea that he's looked at as this guy who flirts. He doesn't even flirt. He's like, I'm good. So I would imagine this is the year, but he could be picky here. I don't think he needs to take any job.

This is the year, and I double down on it with my future pics before the year, but I was just like, I'm defaulting to good coaching. Like Sean Payton, over. Jim Harbaugh. I know it doesn't make sense, but I just feel like he's getting to nine wins and maybe making the play.

I had them both in the playoff this year. I'm with you.

Next year already, I can just tell you, like Belichick and Brable taking over whoever. I'm just going to be like, I'm in on those guys.

Why are you so convinced Belichick's getting a job?

Well, that's a good question. I'm not. I'm convinced he wants a job.

If he didn't get one this time around, and Atlanta obviously went down the road with him, why after a year will he suddenly be in demand?

Great question. Because Especially coming off a not a great path here. I think Kraft was definitely poisoning the well a little bit. I think he had a reputation as a curmudgeon and as a control freak. I think the two jobs that made the most sense were Atlanta and Washington. Atlanta hired Rahim, who was a really good defensive coordinator who was going to get another job. It wasn't like the hired a schmuck in Washington. Dan Quinn, it seems like that was the right hire. Right guy for them. Great energy, defense. It's worked out. I don't really know if there's another job. Like, Tepra wasn't going to hire him in Carolina. No. This year, Jacksonville and Vegas seem like the two spots that. Okay, so let's go down to Vegas. You're bringing him, Belchick. You're bringing his whole infrastructure. He's going to be in charge of everything, and you're just handing the thing over to him. Those to be the two franchises that just need someone like that?

Let's go down the Vegas line. Brady's first big opportunity. Brady's hiring Belichick, his old head coach, and they're going to bring in Josh McDaniels and Mick Lombardi and the whole gang. They did that a couple of years ago. That was their coaching staff. They went the New England route.

The only thing I would push back on is, are we sure braided is going to be that involved?

Good point.

I don't know. You could tell me either. You could tell me he's going to be super involved. I would imagine- Or you could tell me he just got a deal on a 10% NFL team and he's just got to be- Who does this benefit more?

braided or the Raiders to have braided as a Raiders' minority owner? I would think the Raiders would say we would love his insights and have him weigh in on decision making when it comes to football stuff.

I would say braided because he got an unbelievable deal, apparently, in the team. He got some legitimate owner. Half price, like the NFL owners were pissed about it. Jacksonville needs... I think Vrabel, because he's younger than Bell Belchek should be a better candidate than Belchek. As much as I love Belchek, he's hitting his mid-70s. But I do think that's been a lot of this media stuff has been a rehab tour. See, I do have a personality. So interesting you say that. See, I can play the game.

Surounds himself with Chris Long, who's a super likable guy on television, a Chad Johnson on television, and he's playing along with those guys. Then he's on with the Mannings, and he's great.

He's doing McAfee. Mcafee is checking all the boxes. Mcafee is checking all the boxes.

Totally. Look, if you're talking about who do you want to sit down with and talk ball with or who's going to be the best Xs and O's guy in the history of the sport, it might be him. I know these owners. I'm trying to think. I think Shad Khan is your best bet of who's going to hand things over to Belichick.

It's somebody who has a whole bunch of other stuff going and doesn't want to manage it day to day. You deal. It's like, you take it, you go. Which is, I think, what he thought he was going to have with Trent Balke, right? And that hasn't worked out.

Yeah. And he thought he had that with Urban Meyer, and that didn't work out.

I think Belichick is going to go to Jacksonville, and I think Vrabel will get a really good job. I can't imagine he's not going to be a head coach next year. That's crazy to me.

So he's been talked about, obviously, a lot. A lot of people thought he got a raw deal in Tennessee, which is fair. He's won a lot without a real true number one quarterback. Tannehill was solid for a couple of years. Think about Vrabel. He's in Cleveland right now consulting, but that's almost like, Let me just let me stay with the team. Let me help out where I can. But you can't pin any of Cleveland's bad season to like, Well, look, Vrayla had a bad year. Again, though, Vrabel, former Patriot, is Vrabel the Jets guy? I don't know if that's a great fit in New York. I don't know if he wants to go there. I'm just trying to do mixing-matching about what's going to be available. I look at some of the places that are going to have openings. I think bears might be available. I think cowboys is going to be available. I think jets is going to be available.

Would you want the cowboy's job?

It's tough. It's tough because he's going to be involved.

You have these three giant contracts. It's basically like you're taking over the 76ers.

The owner, historically, has been very involved. They haven't had a real voice of pushback or resistance since ourselves, I don't think Wade Phillips was that guy. It wasn't Garrett and it wasn't McCarthy. Those guys have been great football coaches in their own right and when they had to be. But they're not guys who are going to scream at the owner.

Well, last year, the Chargers was the best job.

A hundred %.

You get Herbert. You have a team that underachieved because of the coaching situation. You have actual talent in place. It was all lined up for somebody to come in. Jacksonville, to me, is a pretty good job.

You still believe in Trevor Lawrence.

Yeah. If you're walking into it going, I think Lawrence can be a guy. I think he could be on the somewhere in the Herbert May vicinity. He's just, they did this wrong, this wrong, and this wrong. We can build him back up. And you're probably watching every pass and play that he's done over the last four years, trying to decide if this was his fault or if this was the infrastructure. But at least you go to the Giants, who am I getting? Tommy DeVito? You go to Vegas You got a draft pick. I have no chance of anyone.

Both of those guys, draft pick, that's what you're getting.

Or Chicago would be the other one where you're walking in with Caleb, you have draft capital, you have a city that gives a shit.

That's what Canales stepped into If you get a Caleb that just had a scarring rookie season, how do I build him back up? Like, Bryce Young was destroyed last year. How do I build him back up? That's a challenge in itself.

Work in progress.

Work in progress. I would quickly give you a name. Obviously, I say this, and a lot of people roll their eyes because he's been a head coach before. But depending on how the second half of the season goes in Washington, I think Kingsbury is going to be a name to watch because of what he did with Jaden out of the gates. And he's got head coaching experience. It's not for everybody. It's And he has fated in the second half of every place he's ever coached, whether it was Texas Tech or Arizona or even USA last year. But I would keep an eye on Kingsbury as a sneaky candidate for a few of these places just because of his ability with these young quarterbacks. And that's what you're drafting.

And I do think- He was bad in Arizona. I don't know how much of it was his fault, but it didn't go well. With that said, he's been amazing for Daniels. If you feel like it's a quarterback match, maybe. The thing is, you have a 25% chance of hitting it with the coach. We're just watching it. There's eight or nine guys, and then there's everybody else. Totally. That's what happens. Would you want the New Orleans job? The shocking thing to me is how many jobs I wouldn't want that are available. It's like, Oh, cool. I get to take over the Panthers. If that became available, no, thank you. Oh, the Saints. I get the Saints job.

You're underestimating the the careers, and what it means to be one of the 32. A lot of these guys know going in sometimes.

I get it, but not if you're Ben Johnson, though. Every year, you have your pick. It was like, Oh, cool. I get to coach Derrick Carr. I get Aiden O'Connell for a whole year?

Yeah. Sean Payton tells the story about he got interviewed by the Raiders in '03, maybe, and he was the offensive coordinator of the Cowboys. And out, Davis made the pitch, and then the Cowboys came came back and said, We'll pay you as much as they're paying you to stay as offensive coordinator. And he does. And then the next year, he visited New Orleans and he was like, There were still tarps on the homes from Katrina. And we were embarrassed to invite free agents in Because if they even saw this place, they would never choose to sign. He's like, We had to offer twice as much money to assistant coaches just to even consider this place. It's not like that, but when you go into these teams that are so much behind the... It is a real hard sell to a top, top coach, which is one of the reasons why you don't get some of the Premier coordinators or the hot names going to these franchises. Everyone's like, all the fans are like, Well, let's just hire that guy. No, no, no. A lot of times it's the coordinator has the choice or the hot name has the choice.

And it's like, I'm not going to go step into that. I want to go to the place that's the most desirable.

Well, it's funny the way we laid that out. Maybe Vegas is a more desirable job because you come in like, Hey, Vegas, no state tax. It's hopping city right now. Doing great. We have the- NBA is coming. We got a baseball team coming. Nba is coming. Like, shit's going down.

We got the NBA Cup when they do the cool court.

Home of the UFC, NBA Cup. Shit's happening.

Are you going to go to the... Are Are you going to go to the NBA Cup again this year or no?

I'm on the fence. The semifinal game, there's the two in a row games on a Saturday. It seems fun. It does.

I'm doing a double dip this weekend. I'll be in LA. I'm going to go to Nuggets Lakers on Saturday.

Hope you have this place.

I know. I'd like to see him. Then I'm going to go to Eagles's Rams the next night. Then I was thinking about extending the trip one more day because you have Ravens Chargers. So pretty good LA sports weekend here.

That really is. Well, let's leave on that because we're hitting at a million dollar pick. Ravens chargers. Chargers sneak one out last week. It was a sneaker.

Slayed some ghosts.

Ravens could be seven and five if they lose this game. The Ravens are favored by three. I've liked the chargers all year. But something about the Ravens on turf coming off a loss is scary to me. What's your take on this game?

I don't know, man. Chargers are really good. And last week, it was obviously all written to just charger it up, and they found a way to somehow put their foot down and not let that happen again. Now, of course, the kicker from the bangles misses that kick, and it's okay. But it was all going the way it always goes for the chargers after being up 27 to 6, and they found a way to hold on. And Herbert had to leave a drive at the end, and he did. That was good. And at the end, it's like, Lads McConkey has no demons and no ghosts from previous years. And J. K. Dobbins doesn't know any of that stuff. And they've got guys on defense who weren't a part of those teams. New coach, new feel. I could see them beating up on the Ravens this weekend. The Ravens last week, if They finally get a good effort from their defense. They finally get this performance where they keep a team under 20. And on the flip side, they only run the ball with Derrick Henry 13 times. They missed two Justin Tucker field goals. They looked discombobulated after the timeout on the two-point conversion.

There's penalty He's all over the place. I don't feel great about this Ravens team. I didn't feel great when they won against the bangles on a Thursday night, and they gave up 35 points and 500 yards passing. I don't know. I know the Ravens are favored, and this game's on the road for some reason. I could see the chargers winning in this game, 100 %.

It's a must watcher. That one's great. Packers, Niners is going to be great. Some good ones. Ram's eagles will be fun. We have a couple of good ones. I think Dolphins, Pats could be really fun, too.

I heard you and Sal joking about, did you know that the Buffalo fans jump through tables? Where do you stand on the Harbaugh brothers going up against each other in a game? Are you good on that storyline or is it not enough?

Is that what's happening?

Yeah. They actually... So one of the teams had coaches.

They're going against each other. I didn't see that. Nobody's talked about that all It's actually interesting because one of them is last name Harbaugh, and the other one's last name is Harba, and their dad actually coached, too, for Western Kentucky for many, many years. So they're the same dad.

Same guy.

How many times did they coach against each other when Harba was on the Niners? Twice.

They did a Thanksgiving game, and then they did the Super Bowl.

Oh, yeah, the Super Bowl.

And John won both times.

I still don't understand how the Niners lost that Super Bowl. I went to that game, one of the weirder sporting events. I'm sure you were there, too. Roaring back after the- Long blackout. The whole thing was just the weirdest vibe. Where did you sit?

Because maybe I'm just the neurotic New Yorker here, but the lights go out and everyone thinks this is hilarious. I was freaking out. I'm like, What's going on? Where were you when it went down? I was in the press box, which is not easy to get down from the top of the Superdome.

I was in a suite with the one and only Nathan Hubbard, and the lights went out. The first thought is, is something horrible happening? Then the second thought is, what if the lights don't come back on? What happens to the Super Bowl? Then it was super disjointed, but the whole game was disjointed. Then all of a sudden, they're on the five-yard line, first down, and the pace was off. It was really weird to watch in person. It was. I haven't been to a million NFL games because I love watching them on TV. But that was, I think, the weirdest one I've been to in person.

Frank Gore runs the ball down to the five-yard line. Kaepernick throws, I think, three passes to Michael Crabbtree, one of them, maybe to Randy Moss, of all people who was on that team, out of the end zone. And that's how it ends. It's a crazy, crazy Super Bowl that's forgotten in the lore because of the blackout. But it came down to the final minutes. And that's another one that Niners fans add to... There's a whole version of the Belieger, Jets, Browns fan, and no one's crying for Niners fans. They've got all those Super Bowl rings, but they have had some devastating playoff losses over the last two decades.

Yeah, you're right. You don't think of them as the tortured fan base because they've been in it every year. But what was the last one? '95? Yeah, well, Steve Young?

Yeah, it Steve Young and the Monkey Off His Back with Gary Plumber. Yeah. That was the last time they won a Super Bowl, right? Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah.

Montana won four and Steve Young won one.

Drought on par of the New York playoff football drought.

Thirteen years for of the Jets.

And then when was the last Giants' playoff one? Was it Super Bowl?

No. A couple of years ago, they beat the Vikings. They beat.

That's right. It's a Daniel Jones game. I bet on that game.

We didn't talk about the Giants' decision all year.

There's nothing to talk about. All year, Drew Locks number 2.

Devito gets the call as the number one.

They're just trying to save money, right? It's just per game.

No. No. Devito brings a spark, baby.

Let's go. Spark for what? They should want to lose every game. If I were them, I would play Daniel Jones every game. The weird thing is the draft's goofy because the top two guys, it seems like, are cornerbacks, right? If you say Travis Hunter is a cornerback, you can play a receiver sometimes. Then there's not a quarterback in the top eight. The two left tackles have fallen out.

Just get ready for I'm on the Shador Sanders hype train, my friend. It's coming. It'll be real.

It'll be real. That's where I'll be getting off that train.

You're not a fan?

No, I like them. It's just we do this every year with the draft where we're settling with like, these are definitely the five, six, seven best guys. And then as we get closer to April, everybody starts talking them into these quarterbacks. Yeah, it starts rising up. All right. Say hi, everybody in New York.

You're the man. Great to see you. I wanted to talk about Jay Leno being thrown down a head in jail, but we didn't get to that point. That's just not funny, I guess.

Listen, I will say if I was the host of a conspiracy podcast, I would have done a lot of legwork on it because it just... A lot of stuff doesn't add up. I'll just say that. I bet on some text threads today wondering what's going on here.

It's a crazy online story, and it's disheartening because I like Leno. I mean, I think he's a sweet guy and he loves the craft. But what are we doing? Hamptons in on a Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. What are we doing here?

Right. Well, and also if If you take your own parents and just put them in the situation of some of these, and it's like, Do you hear what happened to Bill's dad? He fell 60 feet down a hill, and his whole side of his face is black. I'm like, What? That's the weirdest thing I've ever heard. And there's something so old school. But with celebrities, they somehow seem less weird.

And it's something so old school that Inside Edition is doing interview with them. It's like, What am I watching?

Yeah, there's people doing tweets like, Someone is trying to kill Jay Leno. How much evidence do we It's like, I'll at least investigate this. I'll kick the tires on it. Peter Schrager, great to see you.

You're the man, dude. Thank you.

All right, that's it for part one of the podcast. Thanks to Peter Schrager. Thanks to Souruti for hopping on. And Thanks to Kyle Creighton. Remember, you can watch all the clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. And remember, part two of this podcast is coming as soon as we can get it up. We're going to talk about the Philadelphia 76ers. We're going to talk about Million Dollar Picks and a whole bunch of other stuff. So stay tuned for that. See you in part two. Must be 21 plus in President Select States for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President DC. Gambling problem, call 100 Gambler, or visit rg-help. Com. Call 1-88-789-7777 or visit ccpg. Org/chat in Connecticut, or visit mdgamblinghelp. Org in Maryland. Hope is here, visit gambling helpline ma. Org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support, Massachusetts, or call 1-877-8 Hope, NY or text Hope, N-Y. Ny in New.