Transcript of Week 9 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to NFL Daily, where we never leave the pocket because we got no mobility. We're like Kerko Chains. I'm here in the Chris Westling podcast studio for our Week 9 Picks, it's Cynthia Freeland, time of the Week. Let's go.

Why would we ever leave the pocket?

No, we're having so much success inside the pocket. That's a little tease to maybe one of my Picks a littleIt's a little later. But this is the part of the show where we talk about our Picks from last week. We both went one and two, so we're just going to move past that for the season. If you check us out on YouTube, you can see the fancy graphics. Cynthia is one game up on me. She's 500. I'm one back. You know what stinks? I actually looked at our record against the spread for the whole season on game day view, and it's much better. We're both well over 500 picking every single game. That just means that our time is coming and that we're going to have some great picks because the picks for this show I feel good about this week. You're going to start us off three picks against the spread.

We'll go back and forth. Listen, you are one heck of a segue artist with that intro because I'm going to go with Atlanta. I think Atlanta wins by at least two and a half, so three points at least. I have five points. I'm a conservative modeler, so ultimately that's a pretty big win, in part because this Dallas defense cannot stop any Yaka or Yako. Remember, yards after the catch or yards after contact. You go. You go. Both are a huge problem. So, Bajon Robinson, welcome to my lineup. Obviously, he was there to begin with, but massive day for him, for me.

I love that. Let's just join forces. We haven't done that a lot on this show, but Atlanta minus two and a half minus three, whatever you find for it, I'm feeling it. This is one of those lines that I looked at, and I don't have a model, but it's almost like, Oh, you're just begging us to take the Falcons here. I get a little worried about that, but I've been fading Atlanta all year, including last week. I did a bad job at that picking the Bucaneers on our show, Game Deview. I don't think I did it here.

No, you didn't do it here.

I don't know. I don't know, whatever. But here's the thing. They have a good running game. At the beginning of the season, It was like, Can you marry up the shotgun, the pistol concepts of Kirk Cousins with the running game? When I look at it, it doesn't look married up, and yet it's very effective lately. So going up against Dallas, whether they have Michael Parsons back or not, fourth in overall offensive efficiency. And then this is a bad defense for the Falcons. That's why I haven't been in on them, but I think this is a week that they can survive. I looked at the DVOA, so that's total efficiency. I know there's different metrics, and I'm like, Am I crazy here? In total efficiency, Falcons are about 13th on the season. The Cowboys are 26th. This is not a good team. They're just been a team that Vegas hasn't given up on. Then finally, they broke out those Outkast sweatshirts this week. I don't know if you saw that, the Falcons Outkast collab. You're not going to lose. We're going to have a lot of Outkast sweatshirts this weekend.

You cannot lose wearing that sweatshirt. It is like an undefeated sweatshirt, and we haven't even seen them play a game in it yet, but we know they're already undefeated after having that collab.

Yeah, and you looked like you wanted to tell me more about the bad defense.

Oh, no, I just wanted to talk about this. That's some good swag right there. Whoever's doing that partnership, A plus. Good job.

Yeah, maybe they'll be at the stadium. I'm feeling Atlanta minus three. We've got four units in this game, two pretty bad defenses, one pretty bad offense, and then one Falcon's offense. I'm believing in the Falcon's offense, at least. I like it. All right, so we're on that together. We got through that quickly. What is your second pick?

Well, all right. For my second pick, I'm going to go the Buffalo Bills and 6 Points. So they have to cover at least a 6-point spread. They win by at least a countdown. The number 6 I enjoy because seven and a half is a crappy number. Six is a much more palatable number. This means the difference between one possession or two possessions. So I'm looking at the opportunity to beat Miami at home. They get Von Miller back. They already have Greg Ruso, who's been bringing the heat. Obviously, we know that they're going to try to run the football. Devon Hei Chan in three games have had three great games against the Bills. However, getting that quick passing game going and the rhythm back, I don't know if Buffalo is the place that Two was going to be able to make that happen. And also last week, we saw some confusing data from their defense, which had been playing pretty well, them being the Dolphins defense, clearly not the Bills defense because they did really well in Seattle. But ultimately, I don't know what to trust about this defense, and I trust a lot more about what I've seen from Josh Allen on the offense.

Yeah, I think their toughness will be tested. We'll see if Zack Seeler plays in this game, who's a really important part of that. He's a huge deal.Defense..

But Jalen Ramsey has not been Jalen Ramsey. He hasn't.

Giving up some in coverage, and Buffalo can beat you two different ways. They can just grind you to dust like they did to the Seahawks. They can obviously make big plays in the passing game. We saw Kyler Murray outside the pocket doing that last week, inside the pocket as well. Josh Allen, even better at that. I'm with you. I'm now writing that down in my little extra pics.

The box is-The box is back.I feel like it's a really honored thing to be.

Yeah, because I do feel that in my soul. This match has been so bad in the Mike McDaniel, Sean McDermott era. I don't really like going back to past years too much, but when it's a specific coaching matchup and you've lost five straight in week two with Tua out there. They were up 3110 before Tua got that injury. I'm with you there. That's not going to be one of my top three picks, though. And you were right. I did not take the bucks on this show last week. You have a good memory.

I was pretty sure you did. We do those shows together, so they It's all mixed together.

My top pick.

Let's hear it.

Washington minus 4. On the road. Now, I get it. I could see why models might agree or disagree. I don't even know. Does yours agree with me?

It agrees strongly. That was in contention.

Feel free to take it as your third. There's no rules.

We could just-I want to add a different one for my third. Fun.

I get it why it's only four. It's a road team. It's a young team that you're still learning about. It's a division matchup. When they first played, believe that was week 2, Very close. The Giants actually felt like they should have maybe won that game. But sometimes I don't want to get too complicated. It's two teams heading in opposite direction. Washington has passed every test throughout the course of this I know they could have lost last week. It doesn't matter. To me, they outplayed the bears. They looked like a quality team. Two quality teams, it comes down to the end. Washington, one. These are not two quality teams. Going back to overall efficiency, Washington, ninth. Giants, 25th. Not close. Special teams. Giants have been terrible week after week after week in special teams, giving up big returns, not making their kicks. 31st, Washington, seventh. Here's some more numbers. Since week four, this Washington defense, which was supposed It has to be the weak side, that's a pretty long sample now. Since week 4, I'm including week 4. That was the Arizona game. Second in EPA per play, allowed. Fourth in total points, allowed per game.

They're getting it done. Steve Weiss was in this studio saying how they've really simplified things. They're playing fast. Now, when they play better opponents, do I think their defense is going to be world beaters? No. We saw what happened against Baltimore. But this is not a world beater. There's no home field advantage. Everyone's sick of Daniel Jones in New York. They could be booing by the middle of the second quarter. There's nothing really to feel good about. I could see it being close in the middle of the third quarter where it's still at the four, it's at seven. But I really like Washington. I think they're a real deal team, and I don't believe in the Giants at all.

Completely agree. I'm going to give... Just because New York's had a hard week and we're LA people, even though maybe not LA fans, the Dodger, whatever.

I've jumped on board with the Dodgers.

Dexie is good. They're really good. They have the most sacks in the league. Dexter, who I want to I meet him and become friends with him just so I could be like, My friend Dix. I just feel like that would be good. They've been good with that. Also on the other side, Bobby Wagner in this defense, I understand he's not the youngest cat on the block, but his ability on that Washington defense to be that guy, the voice, the quarterback of the defense or whatever you want to call it, but basically not miss tackles. Their tackle efficiency rate, meaning how they've stopped teams from getting your car, your co, to... He just loves when he does But anyways. But yeah, that's been a really big difference maker for this Washington defense. I'm totally on the same side as that. Good. That was one of mine for sure.

I like it. And yeah, Tyrone Tracy, who had been breaking a lot of tackles, playing well for the Giants. They have a good rookie class. But he might not be playing. He's probably not playing in this game coming off of a concussion. So that's my second pick. We're both in on Atlanta. I take Washington. You had the bills. What is your final pick?

In the Battle of Appalices, the one in Minneapolis on Sunday night, I think there's a number five. If I like the number six, I certainly like the number five. So Minneapolis with five points to win in Minneapolis against Indianapolis to see who wins the Battle of the Appalices.

Okay. I wonder if Colts fans will travel. That's not too far to Minneapolis, relatively.

It's not close. You drive to them? No, I guess not. You have to take a Delta flight.

Okay. Explain why, because I want to know why the model you think likes the Vikings better, because I got to admit, Indy+5 is on my little box list. But it's not my third pick, but we were going to go against each other on that.

Yeah, that's fine. We got to go against each other on one of them. A couple of reasons. I know Joe Flacko is starting, but when it comes to the types of blitz that Brian Flores likes to execute. Last week against the Rams, things were wonky at the end. When we were doing anything we were doing for our shows, we did not know that Cooper Cup was for sure playing, and we certainly didn't know that Pukunaku was playing until the 90 minutes prior. We didn't know. There was a A lot of things that were different, and they could have won that game. It's not like it was such a huge butt kicking that it was super convincing either way. The types of blitzes that Brian Flores likes to throw out there, they're not as easy to execute as Michael Pitman's maybe not playing. That's not great. Is Josh Jones fully healthy? I know Jonathan Taylor is supposed to play in this game, and their O-line is good. However, the way that that defense executes, it's just going to be very hard, even though Joe Flacker is a much better thrower. Joe Flacko is a great thrower.

Yeah. You're maybe convincing me almost to cross out. So I get why you look at the numbers because they're over the course of the season or maybe more meaningful than just the last two weeks. But there is an eye-test thing that, okay, quarterbacks who can understand a little bit what Minnesota is doing, attack the middle of the field, copy a little bit what the last two offenses have done. Could Joe Flacko do that? Throw into his tight ends. With who? Just down to his plane. Just down to-He should. I love Josh Johnson. I know he's on the injury report, but he finished last week's game. We'll see about Pitman.

When you have two, three guys that are potential pass catchers, way different than when you have one guy be like, Hey, it's me.

Yeah, that's fair. And Bernard Ryman is on the injury report with a concussion. The NFL has done a bad job with these spotters. Bernard Ryman gave up huge sacs at the end of last week's game. That was awful. Then he showed up the next day, and it turns out he was concussed, playing through a concussion. That would be a big loss for them against a good pass rush. Five just felt a little rich for a game that, I don't know, I just expect these Vikings games to come down to the final possession, these Colts games to come down to the final possession. You're maybe pushing me off putting that in the box. I don't know. My third pick.

Wait, one thing. With Kirstian Dersaw being gone, I was worried, but they got Cam Robinson. That helps a lot. That helps a big time.

Okay. A big time. I feel like we need to be on the same page here. Although I wanted the Colts as my backup to my Baltimore minus nine pick. Now, I don't like picking anything that could have an injury repercussions. Maybe by the time you guys hear this, the Lamar Jackson thing will be taken care of. I'm just going to assume Lamar Jackson is playing. When you finish on Sunday, you're a starting quarterback in the NFL. Almost certainly, this is a guy who's played through a lot of things. You're playing the next week. That said, he's mispracticed Wednesday and Thursday. That's never a good sign. It's never a good sign when John Harbaugh says it's a rest day, but then he shows up on the injury port as a knee back. I don't care. He looked good last week. I actually thought he played well against Cleveland. His offensive line didn't, and that's a concern this week. And yet this is one of those lines where I look at, wow, nine points. That's crazy against the Broncos, and they're almost begging you to take the Broncos, and I'm not going to do it. This is maybe a spiteful pick.

I'm not believing in the Broncos. I believe they're fine. I believe they're 8-9, but I don't think Bo Nicks can get it done against a good defense. Is this a good defense? Statistically, no. But I do think it's a great team overall, and great teams respond. That was a division game last week, a matchup they've had some struggles with against Cleveland. You're coming off a loss. You're one of the very best teams in the entire NFL. In my mind, the Baltimore Ravens returning home. I think this offense can make the Broncos blitz look very average. Run straight through them, be able to handle the blitzes. You got Deontay Johnson. That's another outside receiver. We'll see how big of a factor where he is. But ultimately, I'm looking at as an eight or nine-win team on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL who's absolutely ready to bounce back from last week. So I say nine points is not enough. Bo Nicks makes some mistakes, has a couple of turnovers in this game, and they end up walking away with it. Maybe it's not a 20-point win, but it's 30 to 16.

They cover the nine. Let's go, Ravens.

You know what's wild is the rookie quarterback who scored the most offensive touchdowns this year is Bonyx, not Jaden. I just thought that stat was wild. I just want to know how you feel about my two preseason win total pics because I feel like I'm pretty happy about these. My NFC pick for who was going to exceed their expectations was the Seattle Seahawks who were at six and a half. How are we feeling about that?

That's looking great.

How about them Broncos? That's even better. Five and a half, baby. Five and a half wins. Are you kidding me? Am I happy about that? Yeah, you're right. Am I tooting my own horn? You should.

If you can cash an over-under win total.

Before Thanksgiving?

Well before Thanksgiving. Maybe you can cash it on Sunday.

Mama's going to eat good.

If I'm very wrong. Okay, so I'm going Baltimore minus nine as my third pick. On the off chance that Lamar Jackson doesn't play just to have a backup for housekeeping purposes, I'll just go with your Bills pick as my third. Okay. All right.That is it. Yes, every week, I have a little box of extra pics. They've done pretty well over the course of the season.

The box came out of the gates on fire.

On fire, and they've taken on some water lately. But I'm going to stick with my Flacko plus five. I like the bills, as I mentioned, as my backup there. I get totally out of the Ravens business if Lamar is not playing.If.

Lamar is not playing, thenYeah, forget.

That game, just stay away. Then the other one I like this week was Cincinnati minus nine. As long as Tee Higgins. Tee Higgins actually, I think, makes a big difference to me, and we're not sure about his status, but I think they are a good team that absolutely needs to win. I'm not giving up on them. The Raiders have a defense that I won't be able to stop them through the air or on the ground. I actually think I don't know if Keith Brown could get it going this week.

I think this is a wild one where the Raiders have two different identities. There's the good Raiders that can somehow upset the Ravens, and then there's the not good Raiders, and those are the ones that are like, What am I even watching here? I'm just curious which one is going to show up because my only... What are my little clues here? Well, Robert Spillane has played this bangles team quite a bit. He was a stealer for a long time. Max Crosby, his pressure rate is low for his season total, usually. He wouldn't really make a lot of noise last week. I'm just saying for the number. I'm not saying for the win. Just out of curiosity. I don't know. It's just which identity is coming. Is the one that Antonio pierce feels like is the one that takes on the identity of their coach coming, or is that other one?

It's like when they can get up for games and Garner Minchou plays well, that's two different things. They got up for that Chief's game, they played well, they covered. They didn't end up winning that game. Garner Minchou played well. I don't know if you can expect that two straight weeks. I like Cincinnati minus seven, but I like them a lot better if Tee Higgins is playing. To review, we are both in on the Balkans. I have the Banders and the Ravens. You have the Bills, and your final pick was...

I forgot.

Minnesota. Minnesota. That's right. We're going against each other. Thank you. Cynthia Freeland. Check out Numbers game on YouTube each and every week. Check out this show on YouTube each and every week. We can watch both. Yes. Or if you want to listen in yours, but subscribe. That's right. It. Check out NFL Daily. It's been an awesome week of NFL Daily shows. Really looking forward to Sunday.

What's your favorite one? It's with you. Okay.

The one I'm doing, and that's the one that we're doing right now. And yes, we'll wrap it up. We'll be there on Sunday night with Patrick Claybon and nick Shook from Cleveland. Yes. When we're talking about November football, I mean, football is really back. It's never been more back.