Transcript of Week 7 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to another NFL Daily, where we missed the hell out of Cynthia Freeland last week. I missed you. We needed her. You pushed me. We got her in the studio. Yes, I'm back in the Chris Wesley podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland. We missed you. Yeah, I was in London last week. Neil Arnold stepped in and picked games for you. He didn't He didn't win a single game. He went 0-3. But because we're professional, we did get your picks. The listeners are going to just have to trust us on this one that you went two and one on your picks.

I mean, listen, we can show them the email proof. It's not like it's not there.

Yes, it is absolutely true. You had Washington wrong last week, but you got the- Half a freaking point. Yes, but you got the Texans covering easily and the bears covering easily. When I saw your bears pick, I was like, Why didn't I take the bears? I felt so strong about that game there in London, and then it happened. I went two and one as well. I got the lions and the Steelers both covering comfortably and the Giants not even coming very close. So 2-1 for me gets me to eight and 10 on the season. You're nine and nine. My extra pics did poorly last week, so I'm down to 11 and 6 on my extra pics.We.

Do have a couple11 and 6 is great.

Still very good, but I went 0 and 3 last week. Okay, let's start. I'll let you start. Every week, by the way, if you're new to the show, both Cynthia and I, two of the foremost prognosticators in the business pick three games against the spread.

Okay, for my first pick this week, I would like to go with... Listen, I'm I… This one's going to be spicy, but I'm going with the Jets plus one and a half. Okay. I think the Jets went outright. If you're going to also give me another point and a half, I will take it.

I have the Jets winning this game as well on our show, Game Day View, which, by the way, people can… They can DVR. It's on early Friday morning. It's on Sunday morning. Super early if you're- It's on late night. Pacific. Saturday. Yeah, it's very early. Does your model put a Devante trade into the mix, and how much does that change anything? Does it put Russell Wilson into the mix? Does that change anything? Everything's in there at all.

The Russell Wilson thing just added more passes, which actually added more volatility because the Jets defense is very good. Then if you look on the other side, Devante Adams has been the reliable option for Aaron Rodgers on quick passes, basically for ever since they were together. I don't know, it bolstered the Jets' odds no matter what. I think the line moved a half a point with Devante, and I'm like, Fine, I don't care.

But You moved at another point or something.

Yeah, I went over and above whatever the movement was.

Yes, you have them. I like that. I agree with you, but that's not going to be one of my three picks. I'm going to continue to make the mistake of picking the Patriots to cover the spread.

I have it, too.

Five and a half is-Okay, yeah. You got to have a code as someone that's picking games. One of my codes, one of my ways I do this would be Some teams just aren't worthy of being heavy favorites, and the Jaguars are one of those teams. You can put any NFL team out there against the Jaguars. I do not think they should be a five and a half point favorite in any scenario whatsoever. And this is that It's a neutral field game. You could say Jag's home game, but it's not going to really matter. I'm sure the Patriots fans will actually travel pretty well, and it'll be even, but it'll be mostly just people enjoying the game. It'll be fun atmosphere there at Wimbly. So giving the Jaguars five and a half points. After a week where I think Ollie Connolly on our recap show said it well, watching the sidelines, he's never seen a more disconnected team emotionally in his life. And now they got to go spend a whole week together in London. Everyone's miserable. People think the head coach is going to get fired. Just sight unseen, I almost like the Patriots straight up.

I'm not ready to go there because the last thing I did before I came in to the studio today was watch Patriots, Texans, and it was a reminder, this is a bottom five defense. Trevor Lawrence has actually played pretty well the last couple of weeks. They're just more talented than the Patriots when their offense is on the field against a pretty poor Patriots defense. They're not getting coached very well. So that maybe the Jaguars win this game, but five and a half points with Drake May making some plays last week. That was very volatile, so it could go really well, and he probably could have some negative plays. But this Jag secondary hasn't made any plays all year.

I mean, Andre Cisco had the one good play, and then there was allegations that he said the team quit. I don't know what's true or not. I just know that it looks like a mess. That weird hockey line subbing in thing that the Jags are doing up front. Watch their defensive front. They do hockey line substitutions. First line, second line. It's wild. I've never seen. Usually, you see one or two players on certain downs coming out, but not like they're subbing out five players.

Well, that's the one part of the game that does worry me a little bit. Trayvon Walker has had some good games. Josh Heinzalan is still there. Eric Armstead is there. That matchup against the Patriots offensive line. But that's one of the reasons why, just as a little bonus on our show, Game Day View, for my write this down this week, I was like, Drake May over rushing yard in total. That was 29. That's not one of my picks here. I guess it's an extra pick. I'm throwing that in the extra pick. No, I put that in the box. Because he's going I think they're telling Drake me, essentially, if you don't see anything and the rush comes quickly, like run, dude, and he did it well last week.

Run, dude.

He is athletic enough to do it. So is that going to be one of your three? No.

Okay. My next one is Washington by seven and a half points against Carolina.

Okay. That makes a lot of sense to me. Explain why.

Well, what? I mean, number one, listen, there's so many good things to like about Jaden Daniels, but the one thing I want to talk about on the other side of the game is the fact that no Jonathan Allen now. Now that's going to be difficult to overcome. But I actually have seen their defense defending passes a little bit better in recent weeks. I'm not going to call them a good pass defense. I'm not going to say that they're not going to give up a deep play. I'm not going to say that if Deontay Johnson plays, he's not going to get the answer. None of that. What I am going to say is that their ability to contain these chunk plays on every single down is limited more than Jaden Daniel's ability to create such things on the other side. So I think seven and a half I have them on 11-point win, and you know my model is pretty conservative. If my model is seeing 11 points, seven and a half is like... It's a big gap for you. Yeah. I'm way more conservative than most models.

I like that. I agree with that one, too. If I had to pick that one. Andy Dalton is playing just well enough that you could see him scoring some late touch downs and make you sweat it. But that defense is just terrible. Jadavian Clowny is still out of practice. Deontay Johnson out of practice the first couple of days of the week, but one of his teammates said that he will play. Xavier Laguette said Deontay Johnson will play.

If Xavier Laguette says it, it must be true, right?

Xavier Laguette also says if he scores two touch downs in this game, he has a second part of his horse galloping celebration. I don't know if you've been tracking.

I have been tracking, but there's a second part.

He has a second part that he's ready to unveil, but he has to score two touch downs in this game. I'm so glad to hear that. Yeah, what you are saying is unlikely. Washington, that's your second pick, minus seven and a half. Yep.

Don't forget that hook.

I'm on the fence of what my next couple of picks are going to be. Let's go with the one I feel better about. Seattle plus three. This is more of a hunch. Byron Murphy returns this week. I think he's really important for that defense. They've He's not getting pushed around in the middle. If he's there, he can make everyone around him better. I like the extra rest factor. The Seahawks play on Thursday night, Falcons off of a normal week, like that. The Falcons are also They can't keep getting away with this team. You know what I mean? Every week, it's just like, Okay, Falcons. They've won three in a row. The Seahawks have lost three in a row. When sometimes that happens, and I see two teams that I believe are pretty close overall in talent and overall ability, I think those streaks are going to end. That's how it works out. Now, that's not a statistical way to really look at it, but I do think McDonald, their defensive coach, which a few extra days to work on it, looks at this Falcon's offense, which is limited in the passing game. Kirk Cousins, every week, he can't move.

The play action is not working. You're probably getting Tarek Wullen back for this game, too, for Seattle. I'm Rieke, okay. Okay, Rieke. He switched it. I know the Falcon's rushing attack has been getting a little better, so that worries me somewhat, but I think Seattle can throw on them. I'm going Seattle plus three.

Okay. I like all of it. One thing I really like in this game is a DK Metcalf breakdown, in large part because the go route has been where he's been so great. The opportunity here, I did see, by the way, it is worth noting that Justin Simmons was on the injury report for the Falcons. Should that be something that happens, then we're going to want to say maybe look at the numbers for Tyler Locket or Jack, the Jigba, and make them a little higher. But ultimately, I think the go route, DK Metcalf, back on track with those games that are 100 plus. He had three of those and whatever. I like it touched out.

I also like that he has been the main character this week in Seattle, just in the media of everyone talking about him coming off of a bad game and why it didn't work out. It's like he's not being the squeaky Wheel necessarily, but it's that same idea of they want to just get him back on track after being the main character. All right, give me your last pick. Cynthia Freeland. I know this-On fire. Got back to 500 here. Let's go.

This one is going to be when I know you disagree with. Because I think we need some dissension. Okay. I agreed too much. Now I'm going to pick Houston, and I'm going to take a field goal. Thank you very much at Lambo Field. I think that this is an opportunity. Number one, a lot of Green Bay's wide receiving corps has ended up on the injury report. That is number one, including Jaden Reid. Number two, Jordan love splits when under pressure versus not when under pressure are massive. The biggest erosion in passer rating this year, like the most touch downs passes, but also like most interceptions. It is high, risk it, biscuit, whatever that.

Remember That was very fun. No risk it, no biscuit. Bruce Arians, believe it was... No, it was not the name of his book. The name of his book was The quarterback Whisper, and I read it. But a lot of it, a lot of No Risket, No Biscuit.

Do you want to know a book I've read? Total Access by Rich Isaac.

Is that the only one? Or you just wanted to brag?

No. Somebody told me that in order to work with Rich, they were messing with me, and they were like, In order to work with Rich, you need to read this book. And I was like...

That's really funny. I've read that book as well, and I I was not even told that. I'm a completest. That was even before I worked at NFL Network. I believe it was called a journey into the NFL's-something like that.

Yeah. And you had hair in the book. Anyways, it was crazy. But back to Houston. I think this number one defense in terms of bringing the heat, they're the best rush defense in the league, and they back it up with a passer rating allowed being the lowest when they get pressure on quarterbacks. In my estimation here, especially with Joe Mixon in the fold when they have that extra fold in the run game, even without Nico Collins, I would like it better if Nico were playing, but we don't have that option. This is an opportunity for Houston to take that step forward.

You're the third smart person I've heard make this pick in the last hour or two.

Well, I feel like it might have been... We were in the meeting together.

Yeah, not even counting that meeting. I was listening to a podcast. I'm listening to you. Green Bay minus three was going to be one of my picks. We were going to go head to head here. But I already was leaning towards jumping off of it, partly because I just enjoy watching C. J. Stroud so much. I think he's the best quarterback in the league in the pocket right now, and it's so hard to pick against him. Even though I do believe Green Bay will win and cover the three, to make it one of my top three picks feels a little rich. Now, they are missing a lot of defensive starters, Houston, potentially. Jimmy Ward, not expected to play. Kamari I think, is not expected to play. A couple of the linebackers are maybes.

I don't know. This maybe factor makes me nervous.

It is tricky. We don't know for sure. You're going to move me off of that pick. I am going to put it in my extra pick. Yeah, put it in the box. It's there.

Great. Don't put it in the box.

The box is good. Okay, so going back to what I was saying about the Jaguars don't deserve to be five and a half point favorites over anyone. I don't think the Rams deserve to be touch down favorites over anyone. I know the Raiders are bad, but the Raiders, every other week, have this performance where it's like, Oh, we really- Like when they beat the Ravens. We really stunk last week, and Antonio pierce laid into it. We're going to play hard, and we're going to be better on defense than you think. I don't necessarily think they're going to win this game. I would certainly pick the Rams, who are maybe getting Cooper Cup back. It's looking positive for that. They're coming off a buy, but they're a one-win team getting a countdown at home, and there's no home field advantage in particular when you're playing the Raiders in Los Angeles. Not that that's informing my decision too much.

Well, not for the Raiders. For the Raiders, it's like a game.

That's what I mean. But I don't think their defense is going to be this bad all season long. Sean McVay and the Rams are just dealing with so many different issues. They've changed their secondary up. Their linebackers are still very vulnerable. The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league, but I just feel like a one-win-Rams team does not deserve to be favored by a shutdown over anyone.

I have them at a countdown, so I'm like, Whatever. All right.

That is my third pick. I'm going to take the rate. I'm going to be bold because I feel like when I've not been bold in this segment, what's happened is I've taken all my bold pics and I've put them over in the box, which are my extra pics, and those extra pics have been better. Be boring in the box.

Be spicy on the show. Be boring in the box.

Okay. So to review our pics, your pics are Washington minus seven and a half. You have the Jets winning over the Steelers.

Yeah, but I get one and a half points, just in case.

Yeah, it's been moving around there. You get one and a half. Houston is a three-point underdog in Green Bay. Those are Cynthia's pics. I'm taking the Pats getting five and a half in London. Taking the Seahawks getting three in Atlanta and taking the Vegas Raiders getting a countdown in Los Angeles. I'm taking three underdogs this week. Then just because I like to have a little fun. I like it. I give people some extra pics.

Love it.

Ravens minus four. This is just like, I feel like taking the Ravens every week at this point, unless they just prove me wrong. This Bucaneers defense has a lot of issues. I know you disagree with this one, though. You had the Ravens only by one in this.

It depends on what happens. If Mike Evans isn't playing, things shift. So I don't know. Good call. This one I don't feel great about. I don't know, when you get on the injury report after Wednesday, and he went on the injury report on Thursday, that doesn't feel good.

That's so good. It's a tricky one. This offense is just so good that I have a hard time seeing Tampa Bay keeping up. I have the packers minus three. I gave all the reasons already there. And then I'm going Browns plus five and a half. I had them written down last week, and then I crossed them out because I even said it on the podcast, so it didn't count. I was like, I just can't, in good conscience, pick a team run by Deshaun Watson. But even though I really like them getting nine points in Philadelphia, you know what? They did cover. They get nick Chubb back. So I look at it like, I'm not picking a Deshaun Watson team. I'm picking a nick Chubb team. And this is a division matchup, which the Browns have done very well in the Zack Taylor era. They've traditionally beaten Zack Taylor's teams, especially in Cleveland. Not that that's a huge deal, but I do think division matchups maybe make mismatches closer. And I'm just not really all in on this Bangle's defense has solved everything. So give me five and a half points. I'll take the Browns.

I don't know if the Bangle's defense has I haven't evolved anything. But in good conscience, I cannot take until the Browns get over a 20% third down conversion rate, which they haven't done all season long. It is 19%. It's up from 18% last week. Great. But until they consistently can convert 20? I'm asking for nothing. 20% of your third downs? I will give you a breakdown to the other team. I just think that is not good. That is a decidedly ungood.

No, that's terrible. That's why nick Chubb is going to come save the day. I've been rooting-Nick Chubb. Against this Browns team because of the Sean Watson for years. I feel bad for their fans. And so this is, I think, a week where we can celebrate something good happening for the Browns, and that's going to be covering five and a half points.

To be clear, the way that you navigate this for fantasy is, yes, you're starting nick Chubb, number one, and yes, you're starting David Njoku, that's number two. And if you're in playing a daily format and you're looking for a guy who could potentially have upside but has not done anything so far this year, it'd be Jerry Judy. Again, I'm not saying for your season long, it's only nick Chubb. That is it. Or maybe David and Joke, if you're really bad with a tight-end. But if you're playing DFS and you want some good contrarian value, Jerry Judy.

I love this. Come for the pics.

Come for the pics. Get a little navigation.

For the DFS fantasy. Who doesn't love DFS and fantasy, man? Well, we are not allowed to play DFS as employees, but we can give advice. Cynthia gives the best advice out there.

I'm not playing. I'm saying what I would do if I were allowed to play.

I love it. Duh. If you want more of Cynthia's numbers, she has so many numbers.

Like a billion.

She has a model that does everything possible She has a YouTube... You don't call it a YouTube page. Just a YouTube. Your YouTube page is called Numbers Game with Cynthia Freeland. Numbers Game Show. Long preview every week, picking the primetime game separately to the Thursday Sunday night. It is good stuff.

It is chockful. Even this week's game, which was very... I had to do a little extra digging to make it exciting.

Yes, she's working really hard on that. So people should check out Numbers Game with Cynthia Freeland. Check us out on Game Dayview. We will be back on NFL Daily on Sunday night with nick Shuck and Patrick Claibon. I went 14-0 in my straight-up pics last week. 14-0. So when the pics are starting to be right, Cynthia and I, I can feel a hot streak coming. You know football is back. We'll see you you Sunday.