Transcript of Previewing Wild Card Weekend: Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen on Collision Course?

Welcome to NFL Daily, where we could use a little distraction on this wild card weekend. I'm Greg Rosenthal in the garage talking to Patrick Claibon, my friend, in his backyard with a great little view there of his kid's house. And yes, you might have noticed we did not have our preview show at the regularly scheduled We ended up not going in on Wednesday to the studios because of the wildfires going on here in Southern California. As I was getting ready for this show late last night, Patrick, I thought about the word distraction. It's always a negative thing when you're talking about football teams and players and coaches. Are they distracted? I was thinking as I was writing these notes on Cooper Dijon versus Jaden Reid, Oh, this is a good distraction because Because like a lot of people here, we've just been focused on everything going on. It's been a difficult week here in Southern California.

Yeah, just because the word makes you think of outside things that are taking you away from what you should be focused on. But in this instance, with the literal danger, especially with you guys in your proximity to the Palisades fire, everything else felt like a distraction from it. It was impossible to to look away from and get away from. We're fortunate to be down here now miles away on the other side of town. The most we got was some ash falling on our cars and just the continued constant rage that's always boiling in my head about how we distribute resources on our planet and seeing what everybody's dealing with. It's been a lot and it's been the focus, and everything else has been the distraction.

Yeah. I appreciate everyone who has reached out and some listeners were asking about it, too. We evacuated on Tuesday night, late night, made the call. We are back in the house now. We're in what's called the evacuation Warning zone zone now. I wouldn't say it's funny, but when they announced an expanded one, we are a couple of blocks north of the zone that we would have to be out of here, and a couple of blocks east of the zone that we would have to be out of here. So we're ready to go again if we need to, but it was good to just get back home. And it's all small, whatever we're going through with so many people including a really close friend of mine who lost his home and just so many people who are going through things. And obviously, the schools are closed and our hearts just go out to everyone. And hopefully we'll all get through this together. I don't want this to be an overly heavy show because this is a distracted. I do want to talk about football, but I did want to say before we do get going with the show, we are heartbroken by the devastation and destruction from the wildfires and families affected by these fires.

Do need support. You can help the American Red Cross respond to and help people recover from the disasters. You can donate today to support to relief efforts by going to redcross. Org/ NFL. And I think there's a lot of worthwhile places that you could be looking at, too. World Central Kitchen does amazing work. I've done work with Meals on Wheel West. And Meals on Wheel in general is a great organization, but Meals on Wheel West, which is in Santa Monica, I worked with them back in the day, and it really made me feel more of a connection to this even than I would have anyways, because people think of the Palisades and they think, well, that's just all rich people. That should change your empathy for them at all. And I don't think people are aware of how many people are living around the poverty line in Santa Monica and even Palisades, and a lot of those are elderly. And one of the neighborhoods that I know is basically gone is one that I had what we call the client that I would go to every week. Those are mostly elderly or people living around the poverty line that had property, that have rent control and that have been there for a long time or for however reason they're there.

And so your hearts go out, and that's a great organization as well.

Yeah, because so many people are thinking about home prices and stuff, but you have to realize You go back to 1974 or 1975, you could conceivably buy these houses working at minimum wage. The way the value goes up and people with money come in, people can't afford to sell their houses because you sell it, you have to go somewhere. People have literally lost everything throughout this process. Regardless of... Because there's any number of ways that people politicize things, but it's impossible to look away from. We could collectively invest to help people, and a lot of people don't want to do that. So here we are.

It's just memories and stuff. You have certain memories at different from places we spend a lot of time at Will Rogers Park. And some of these places, our great friend, LaKisha Westling, I thought about that. Rosenthal Wines was a place that her and Chris spent so much time. If you live in this area and you drive on PCH, you know exactly where I'm talking about. And so many of those places and the business is gone. So we are hoping for the best as we're taping this. We are hoping that we're seeing some improvement with the winds dying down, and they might be coming back. So I don't want to spike football early. But we're in a good place other than this garage. And even the inside of my house is smoky as hell right now. But it is better than the hotel night that we spend driving away. So we're going to get into these games. We are going to do it. I am excited, again, for distraction. We got the college football playoffs. We've been building up all season to these games. Today, structure-wise, we got six games to talk about. I actually taped an interview earlier in the week as this was all just picking up with Seth Payne, one of my favorite guests that we have had, who is a Houston Texans expert who does radio there.

We're going to end the show with my conversation with him talking about Texans Chargers. We're going to start with the NFC, and let's get going with the Sunday afternoon game, Patrick, which is the game the NFL decides essentially is the number one game of the weekend. And I'm not surprised that they chose Packers, Eagles. Eagles are favored by four and a half. It is the Tom braided, Kevin Burkhart crew. And I'm not surprised because I do think this is the one game of the entire weekend where it includes two teams that could make the Super Bowl. And Rams fans might listen to this and say, What about our game? But I said what I said. This is the one game where I think I could realistically see either Neither of these teams making the Super Bowl, even though your packers, and I say your packers because you had them there at the start of the season, haven't been playing their best. I do think, Patrick, that they still have the ingredients to surprise us and go on a run and play better than they have in recent weeks.

Yeah, well, what they have is a solid, right? Not great. Not like it's not going to shock you with their defensive ability to stop somebody, but a solid defense that plays consistent, that knows what they're doing, and has a good veteran leader in Xavier McKinney. In an offense that we've seen that can be streaky and can score points, especially in the postseason, as Jordan Love and this crew did last season. Now, Christian Watson's injury. I think because a lot of people view this unit at this packers unit, especially those who play fantasy football as well. They're the sum of their parts, and losing one person doesn't necessarily... Well, when the sum is what gets you to what they can do when you're able to have Christian Watson, Romeo Dobbs, who will be back for this game against the Eagles, Jaden Reid. Then you can mix in Dontavian Wicks as well as Malik Keith. In these reserve spot roles, the whole thing gets worse when you lose one part of that. I think you need that part. And so, yeah, they're banged up, but it's still a good team that can provide a threat. Are they Eagles?

I don't feel like they're a significant challenger for the Eagles at this point. But you go back to week one, they're right there. And these are two teams that the Eagles have been significantly better since then, Greg.

Yeah. That week one game, since you bring it up, let's talk about it a little bit because I think it was an interesting one to think about. Jaden Reid dominated that game in part because he was covered by Avante Maddox. I went back and checked. Now that's Cooper D'Egine probably out there. You think about how the packers have won offensively. Gordon Reid has some of the most dramatic splits between facing man coverage, facing zone coverage. And you mentioned Christian Watson and some packers people I really trust and listen to sometimes. They really think Watson is such a big loss because no one else can do what he does. And he is the man coverage beater. His speed does scare you. And yes, they are three guys in terms of their wideouts, and their tight ends are great, too, that have different skill sets. But he's that hard one to find. He is a big reason why they've been why Jordan Love has been so much better against man coverage. I do think that's a big loss. And you think about how these teams changed since then. Another way that they've changed is, I think they've taken some stuff off Jalen Hertz's plate since then.

That was one of the reasons why I think they went so run heavy after the buy was this game was a typical Jalen Hertz game in September. He had a lot of amazing plays. He handled the blitz well. He had big-time throws, and he had some terrible throws. He had three or four turnover-worthy plays, a couple of bad interceptions, and a lot of those mistakes he made were all before the buy. Then they came back, and they were the most run-heavy team in the league, and he's barely thrown an interceptable ball since then, and they are just a little different. So I do think the way the Eagles have changed on both sides certainly favors them since this game.

They have the run game, right? I feel like it's hard to... Because I know you're not saying that Siriani, as well as their office coordinator, who's getting some Kelen Morse back in a head coach interview game, by the way, the name is starting to pop up more. But it's not like they're trying to hide Jalen Hertz. You have a guy that could have broken the rushing record this season. You have the offensive line clearly that's capable of doing it. They pulled back on the passing game. But then what do you need to improve on the past game? All the controversy comes up. Jalen comes out, has a great game through the air. Him and AJ are dancing and celebrating touch downs, and all things are well. It's not like that they don't have put in the bag, they just pulled back a little bit. I think if need be, they can turn it on again.

Yeah, and probably the most significant thing that happened in the week 18 game that no one watched, including me, I will admit it. This week has been a lot. Seeing some crazy stuff. And one of them is not that Drew Locke game. But I did listen to some coverage about it. And Dallas Goder, and you could see this in the box score, he played the whole game, and they made sure to get him really involved early. And that is one of the things you can do in a week 18 game where you're not playing most of your starters. And they're a totally different offense when he is on the field and they have those three weapons. And he played well in that game, caught a bunch of passes from Tana McKee. Curious who's going to be the backup quarterback in this game. I would I guess it's probably Tana McKee because of how well he played and they can hide behind, can he pick it? Jalen Hertz, we should mention, is practicing. He, as we're taping, is still in the concussion protocol, but he is practicing, which is normally the process that gets you cleared by the end of the week.

But we can't totally eliminate the fact that he would be even out for this game. It's possible. In that case, it would be interesting to watch who they would start because I would give them a I would certainly change that line from four and a half to the Eagles to maybe one for the packers. I think Jalen Hertz is worth that much, but I would give them a chance to win because of that running game. When I looked at the numbers and I was really surprised how well the packers grayed out, statistically, not just DVOA and everything, because that includes all the turn-offs, but they're hitting guys in the backfield. They're a really good run defense. They've been really sound. So it's It's a great running game. You would think it favors the Eagles, but it's not some crazy mismatch. If the packers are going to win this game, maybe it's their somewhat disappointing pass rush showing up just a little. I don't have much faith in that. But more importantly, I think it would be a run defense who's gotten in the backfield and mostly prevented big plays and actually has been really strong up front all year, holding their own and at least making Hertz in that passing game be the engine that drives this offense.

There's a chance. There's a chance of that based on how they've played this season.

When you go into the NFL Pro numbers, Greg, it's not... In terms of the matchups in the individual statistical categories, the The Packers aren't there. It's pretty much a wash, the Eagles's advantage. But this, again, is a balanced team that doesn't have that huge glaring weakness that can make plays. We've seen Jordan Love take some risky throws. He hits those against a very good secondary. They could be right there in this game. We've seen Eagles make the mistakes. You turn the ball over a couple of times. Packers right there in this game.

Yeah. And then you have Love and Matt Lafleur, who Like Jalen Hertz coming into this season, suddenly people were wondering, how come this team has no answers against the blitz? They really struggled the first half of the season, and they buttoned that up completely, and the numbers are now great against the blitz in the second half. The Eagles aren't much of a big blitz team. Their defense is really why I favor them in this game. But I will note, Evan Williams, the really good rookie safety, and Quay Walker, who's an important player for the packers defense, will be back for this game. So it's really two pretty healthy teams, I should say, for the most part. And that packer's rushing attack has been awesome. They love to have two running backs in the backfield. Again, their route, I think, is they're staying run heavy, too. These are two similar teams. Have some effectiveness with the run. The Eagles's defense is great across the board, but I think if you're going to beat them, that's probably the way to do it. And nothing would surprise me. And yet I'll hold my spread pick for our Cynthia show.

We are going to tape that. But I do like the eagles in this game.

A hypothetical spread with Kenny Picket or with Taylor McKee starting?

That's what I was saying before. I would go packers minus two with Tana McKee. And my personal line would be packers minus five. I think Tana McKee is worth three points over Kenny Picket.

Greg has done enough Kenny Picket. It's over.

Although, to be fair, I am talking out of both sides of my mouth because I thought, and it shows how good the Seagull's offense is and well set up there. I thought he played pretty well when he played in there. So maybe it's minus two for McKee, minus three for Picket, for the packers. I I would favor the packers if it was a backup. Wouldn't you?

Yeah, no, the same difference. I'm just wondering the Taylor McKee experience coming out there and beating that Waffle Giants team has shown you.

It's the eyes. It's the people I trust, like Bo Wolf over at PHIY, who really loves what he saw at a McKee. Every time I see him play in the preseason, I think he's going to have a career. I think he's exactly what you want out of a guy like him, which is, I think next year, for instance, they can have a very... You just have backup position, lockdown for cheap, and he'll be totally competent. All right, let's move on. Let's go to the Vikings and the Rams. That's the Monday night game. The Vikings are favored by one and a half, and so that is Joe Buck and Troy AkemanCeci's Assaulters. They announced, the NFL that is, that if they had to move the game, they would play it in Glendale. There's no point speculating. Inglewood is pretty far from where the fires are. The air quality right now as we tape this is terrible. We don't know enough to even talk about that, but that's just where that is at as we tape on Thursday morning. So, yeah, this is the game, Patrick. I don't know who I'm going to pick. I'm struggling with the most.

I'm going back and forth. I could see it both ways. I could see either of these teams actually almost blowing the other out, I actually think anything is on the table for this game, and I'm fascinated by it.

Well, I think the difficulty comes right after week 18, where we saw Sam Darnold play categorically his worst game. Maybe not just In 2024, maybe we got to go back to some starts here in the past few years, where I think a better version, previous versions of what we expected of Sam Brown might have made that a closer game.

It's my Week 18 Panthers Saint start. Actually, it's so similar. I brought this up, if people remember. They probably don't, so many times. It's so similar, Patrick, actually, because he played really well for the Panthers for six weeks. It was the best stretch of his career. Then in week 18, he had one of the worst games any quarterback had all season, and it just ruined the whole thing for me. The good thing is that this time he gets another game to make up for it against a much more, well, I wouldn't say much more favorable opponent, But stylistically, I think the Rams present maybe fewer problems than the Lions Kamikaze approach did last week.

Well, a secondary that's not going to turn you over the way that the Lions will. And perhaps, Kirby and Brian Branch were I don't want to bring up the G-word with Sam Darnold because I don't think that's what happened. I think the Alliance just had a great defensive game plan in a huge game, the biggest week 18 game in NFL history, if you want to quantify it by wins and losses. They just had a great plan, and it messed things up for the Vikings who had great opportunities on all those four downs. I feel like they're still the team that got those opportunities, and they're still the team that won those 14 games. Whereas I love for the Rams that they're able to get the rest for those vets who needed the rest. I agree with Sean McVeigh, being able to have that week of rest superseded whoever you're going to play here in this game. Yeah, you could try to pick and choose matchups, but ultimately, you're going to have to beat somebody if you want to try that Lombardi trophy again. And so the Rams are going to get... They had this game at home, and they give Stafford the time off against the team that they had already beat.

Josh Cardee is really hot right now, Greg. So I understand. After watching him hit back to back, 58 and 57 Yard field goals where you feel like, hey, the Rams get around midfield and it's going to be three points. But this Vikings unit has been so good for so long in the season. I remember back where this was one of those Brian Flores matchups where they didn't really come after Stafford a lot in that first game and perhaps paid for it. The chess match is going to be great between Flores and Sean McVay. But the Vikings have just been very, very good, and they were very, very close to winning that game. That was one of the best of the Ramsey.

You're talking about it represents my struggles. As you're talking about the Ramsey, I'm like, oh, yeah, I am going to pick the Ramsey. And then you get back to the Viking segment. I was like, Oh, yeah. Because it's really hard. They They had one of the worst pass rushes of the season, according to next Gen stats, in that game, the Vikings, of any team all season long, in that game. It was actually the game that the Ramsey got almost... I think they got everyone back, and they were so good protecting the passer. People thought, Oh, the Rams are going to fly. Their offensive line hasn't been that consistent since necessarily. They've been good enough, but they haven't been dominant like that. But you're right, they didn't blitz a ton. And when they did, it didn't get home. And when they rushed for it, it didn't get home. And you say the G-word for Darnold. How about the G-words on the Vikings defense? Grannard and Ginkle, Van Ginkle. Because they're playing so well, especially Van Winkle that I do think they're playing even at a higher level. I do have a theory, though, on the whole, they could play anyone.

There is a part of me that thought that this was the game the Rams thought they were going to get and that they were okay with it. There's There's no way for them to use that as locker room chatter. This is just my theory. But they beat them already. They're familiar. Maybe they wouldn't be that interested in Sam Darnal does their future starting quarterback. No, that I don't know about. But I have this just little hunch that who knows, maybe they did want this game because it was the most likely possible matchup. I was there for that game, and they played their best. That's the X factor that I can't quantify is that this is a championship group. And the Vikings are coming off of a bad game, and they won a lot of tough games this year. But there is a championship core here that remains that you can't look past, that you can imagine them playing their best in this game. And if they play their best in this game, the Vikings will have to as well. The Viking's best, I think, is a little better than the Ram's best. And these two teams have been pretty steady, actually, over the course of the season.

But does Ultimately in a big game, do I trust Stafford or Darnal more? Of course, I trust Stafford a little more. It's an unfair comparison.

Yeah, it's exceedingly unfair. The age quotient and the injury quotient of Stafford up and down during some spots. But I remember before it was right there because we did the game center kickoff for that Rams-Vikings game. It was a simple conversation because the Rams were not at this point in their season and how we viewed them. It was feeling like it was going to be a lost cause for the remainder of the season. But the question was, if they can protect Matthew Stafford, and the immediate thing out of Cynthia's mouth was, Oh, they won't just play well. They'll win the game if they can protect Matthew Stafford, and he was only pressured on less than 12% of his dropbacks in that game. If they can have that duplicate performance, and this great defensive line can get after him. Now, I know in the secondary, they're not going to be able to do what the lines did. It'll be tough for the lines to duplicate what did in week 18. But they have that Ram's puncher's chance that I like to talk about so much with Stafford and Puka, and Cooper Cout back there.

Yeah, and the four-man rush matchup is the first thing I always look at, and they were one of the teams, the team in the league that had the most pass rushers with a lot of pressures because Byron Young had a really nice season. Verse ended up with the second-most amount of rookie pressures in a long, long time. Then you obviously have Fisk there as well. It's a good group. Kobe Turner has been playing better, and can they get some pressure for main rush? And then we just see excellence in terms of wide receiver play, two of the very best. Puca coming off a season that's been a little slept on because he missed so many games. In terms of yards per route run, Patrick, this season by Pukua Nakuwa, trails only Steve Smith. Shout out to Steve Smith winning that Triple Crown year on a team.

It was on the Triple Crown?

That they didn't throw the ball that much, relatively, for a guy that just won the Triple Crown. And behind, Tyreek Hill's biggest season with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. And that's it. That's all Pukua's nine. And all time in terms of yards per route run, these two guys, Puka and Justin Jefferson, I believe, are the top of the all time list. Or maybe Jefferson is one slot lower, but whatever it is, they're there. They are as good as it gets, so that'll be a lot of fun.

I don't know what it is now, but I remember a few weeks ago, the Puka on off stats were three points better in yards per carry for the team. When Puka Naku was on and off the field, I Again, I don't know what it is at the end of the regular season, but they're just a better team with 17.

Part of it is because he's a good blocker, but it's more about the attention. And yes, this Ram's team is built to run. I think that's a big thing to watch in this game. Both teams do want to run the ball. The Ram stick with it more. They're a little more consistent with it. Very efficient. A lot of four and five-yard gains from Kyren Williams over the course of the season, and two teams that are pretty bad in special teams. So that's just something to watch. Not so He got to catch the kickers right now, though. Good call because Rieker early in the season was on fire. Now he's slumping and flipped it. But if you look at the special team in terms of the coverage units, both teams are bad.

Also, important to remember, the Kam Akers' Revenge Game, Greg.

Oh, that is a good one.

This is the Cam Aker's Revenge Game.

He legitimately wasn't thrilled with how Sean McBee treated him. Let's wrap up our NFC talk with Bucks, Commanders. The Bucks are favored by three in this game. This is the Sunday night game. Nice spot for Jaden Daniels. I think it makes sense. Washington is a sneaky national team now. I just based on how electric he has been this season based on a dormant fan base that is large. People want to watch Jaden, and I'm glad the Bucks get the shine, too, because they're one of the most fun offenses in the league. A very even matchup. If you look at any number, These are similarly really good offenses, similarly not as good defenses. Overall, DVOA, they're 10th and 11th on the season. They have some vulnerabilities, which you would I think it's going to be a bit of an offensive game. And ultimately, I think it's a game where there might not be a ton of pass-rush pressure, and that usually leads to a lot of Chris Collinsworth really enjoying the quarterback play. So I'm with it. I'm looking forward to this one.

Yeah, two top five offenses piloted by guys that went high in the draft, guys that had a lot of postseason awards in college football. And Baker Mayfield, actually, and the Bucks have the number four offense. It's Jaden with the number five offense. If you change some things about that, it was Jaden Daniels' very first career NFL game that actually came against the Bucaneers. Jamel Dean was matched up against Terry McLaren, and he had two receptions for 17 yards. If we're thinking about the evolution of the commander's offense, I don't think Jamal Dean is going to run off a whole lot of attempts for Terry McLaren in this stage of Jaden Daniels' rookie season. So, yeah, it's tough to forecast anything other than shootout between two teams that average north of 28 points per game.

Yeah, that was Daniel's worst game. The only other contender would be his last game, which was against the Cowboys, that I tend to not I don't know what too much stock into, but they also had 17 dropbacks that gained 20 yards in that game. So it's not nothing. And it was typical of the only thing Daniels didn't do well this year, which was take a ton of sacs. He was fourth worst in the NFL in pressure to sac ratio. Baker actually is one of the three people ahead of him. So these are two guys that were protected well, Baker, much better even. But when they were pressured, they took a lot of sacs. Now, Jaden Daniels' numbers, though, against pressure, ultimately were still really good because he's so good scrambling. And a lot of the times, he doesn't take those sacs. He has such a unique profile because he takes those sack and you think negative plays, but He was second in the entire NFL in the fewest turnover-worthy play percentage in terms of PFF. I know it's an easy comparison to make, but there really are a lot of similarities to Robert Griffin's rookie year, which gets stepped on as such an incredible rookie year was my choice for Rookey of the Year over Andrew Luc.

He did win the award. They're similar in that, Griffin wasn't making any mistakes. Griffin was an extremely efficient scrambler. There was more design runs for Griffin, But more than anything, the accuracy is what really reminds me of each other. They're just so pinpoint-accurate. The difference, I would say, is Jane Daniels does, I think, show already more of the traits of getting to the opposite side of the field and his reads and just being totally composed in difficult situations that maybe Griffin never even was even in those positions as a rookie. But that's neither here nor there. He's just a very uniquely excellent player. And that's true of Baker, too, who takes some negative plays, but he's coming off like Daniels, I think Baker might be coming off his best game of the season. So a little different in terms of vibes coming in if we put anything into week 18.

Yeah, it was Baker. Again, Tom Bowles had a great laugh earlier in the season when somebody tried to compare Baker's running style, especially after the big third-quarter runs, I believe in week seven. Like, hey, Josh Allen and Jaden Daniels and Lamar Jackson and Todd Bowles, who's had some fun at the podium this year, got the the nickels. He couldn't stop laughing in the comparison. Baker said he was a serviceable runner, but it was 60 plus yards that they needed on the ground against the Saints in that comeback win, which was his first ever comeback from down in in the fourth quarter for Baker Mayfield. Both guys good with their feet in different capacities because you mentioned it was Jaden's worst game. He still had two rushing touchdowns in 88 yards in that opener. The problem was the commander's defense in Dan Quinn's unit, they just weren't there. They hadn't figured out the way that they wanted to approach things, and they've gone through multiple iterations since then. And they've gotten Marshawn Latamor, who has been at practice this week. It's been a talking point But if Marshawn was on the field for the Saints, Mike Evans would not have gotten those 1,000 yards because there's no way Marshawn was not jamming him at the lot of scrimmage on that last play of the game.

Yeah, that was a coaching breakdown that apparently, Dieran Rizzie was very upset It's the reason why I favor the Bucks is that Washington defense, which got better during the year, they got good enough to be okay. And there's not a huge difference statistically between the Bucks and Washington, although in The DOA bucks are right around average in the Washington is closer to 21st, 22nd, which feels about right to me. But I just can't imagine. I think the biggest mismatch of this game is those guys who have big salaries in some production this year, Dante Chouhler, Jonathan Allen, Payne, Jerry Newton, the rookie. Can they get any pressure on Baker in this great offensive line? Can they stop the run with Bucky Irving? It's the group I think could be most vulnerable. Maybe, Yankee Louver pops some big plays. Demario Davis was all over the screen game the Bucks had last week. Maybe Louvou can do that. But ultimately, I don't really trust their defense. I don't trust the Bucks defense a ton, but they do have Antoine Winfield back for this game. They are relatively healthy. They're a little bit better stopping the run. You got Vita Vea playing well.

These are two unpredictable teams, though, Patrick. I looked in variance, according to FTN fantasy and Aaron Shatz. And this matches my eye test. Variants being like one week to the next, not consistent. They are two of the seven least consistent teams of the year. And the Bucks really strike me as that because to me, the Bucks are a legit Super Bowl contender when they're at their best. But they're just But they also have those games where they're very lucky to beat bad teams or they have stinkers. And Washington is a little bit like that, too. They're a little up and down. So I don't know, anything could happen, but I definitely favor the Bucks a little bit here.

Yeah, it's hard not to see what this Chargers team has done late this season, and then think back to the Bucks absolutely evaporating them. And so far, Stadium a few weeks ago is a sign of the type of variants that they offer. But I know that Jaden Daniels is under pressure a lot against the Dallas Cowboys. Michael Parsons doesn't play for the Bucaneers or really anybody else. I think that provided a unique difficulty where the Bucs got to rely on Kalajia Cansy. Vita Vea did get a sack in week 18, but it's a little bit of a different offense and a different monster when it's Spencer Rattler versus Jaden Daniels right now.

Well, yeah, to your point, they were very lucky. They beat the Saints. They were losing by 10 to Spencer Rattler in the Saints. If Rattler hadn't missed, there was two third down throws in the second half that it wasn't so much good defense. It was just they didn't hit it. We could be talking about the Falcons in this game, which is crazy. It's Cliff Kingsbury's last chance, potentially, before he maybe has a head coaching job. If he wants it, there's some talk. He might not even want to. He's just loving life with Jordan. I don't blame him. But I think this is a matchup. He could look good. I liked what I saw out of him late in the season. I also like what I saw out of Marcus Mariota. I mentioned some insane stats that he has over the course of the season in our QB Island show. When you think Mariota, you also think Titans. A little bit awkward transition here, Patrick, but before we go to break, I don't know if you saw the huge breaking news today about the Titans radio booth.

No.

Mike Keith has accepted a job with the University of Tennessee to be the next voice of the Tennessee volunteers. I presume he's done with the Titans, that he is moving on to Tennessee. Wait, do I even know that for sure? Could he do both? Could he possibly do both?

I mean, there's a Saturday-Sunday situation. I would hope, especially on the heels, they just fired their GM. Folks are looking back to the John Robinson trade of A. J. Brown. Mike Keith is the Tennessee Titans. To me, there's very little... Because we have the Titans for some reason playing in those oilers' uniforms. I think it flies in the face of the actual Titans tradition, which includes Steve McNair, which includes Frank Wychek and Kevin Dyson and all the plays and all the memories, Derek Henry, everything that's happened in Nashville comes with that signature Touchdown Titans that I don't want to believe this, and I I hope that all parties involved come to the right conclusion.

Yeah. I mean, we talked about how badly they mismanaged the general manager and coaching situation, and there's more to that we'll get to on a future show. But how do you lose Mike Keith? It is confirmed, Keith said in a statement that it's very hard to say goodbye to the Titans, but it's hard not to say a yes to a return to the University of Tennessee. He was once an announcement for them before they fumbled the bag. So bad job, but at least let's go to a break remembering a great moment in Tennessee Titans and Mike Keith history. Let's go back to Wild Card Weekend, stay on topic. After the 2017 season, the Titans are trailing 21 to 3 against the Chiefs. There's no way they're going to come back on Andy Reid and this crew. Back in a minute. Mariota takes the snap, looks to his right, looking, looking, pumping, throwing into the end zone. No, he kept it. Dope for the end zone himself and got in. Oh, my goodness. I thought for sure Mariota had thrown it.

What a play. It was batted back to him. He did throw it. He caught it for a countdown. Touchdown, Titans.

What a play, Marcus Mariota, who just threw and caught a countdown pass.

Back on NFL Daily, talk to NFC, Wild Card. Let's go to the AFC, where it feels like there's more mismatches. Let's just be real, and let's start with the biggest point spread of the week. Ravens The Steelers. I can't believe it. A Ravens Stealers game is down to nine and a half, actually. So some people who are betting on this game might agree with you, Patrick, because earlier in the week, it was ten and a half, but I see now it's nine and a half. This is the prime video game. We have never had a prime video playoff game. It is on Saturday night. Al Michael's, Kirk Herb Street, Kaylee Hartung, the potential MVP winner in Lamar Jackson. I think he's going to win. I actually do. I think it's going to be extremely close, but I think he's going to win. He is playing against a Stealers team that they just faced on a Saturday. What was it? Three weeks ago now before before they had that double dip on Christmas in a game that I think was closer than the score indicated. Nose flowers. I know more than anything, those Stealers uniforms and the number and how everyone is talking about this game has got Patrick Claibon nervous.

Well, yeah, it's not just the Stealers uniforms. It's the team that historically has provided problems for Baltimore's offense. And a lot of those pieces still there, most notably T. J. Watt in a game where they started out great with the run game in the matchup against the Steelers on that Saturday before both teams would go on to play the very next week. But there's The injury concern for the Steelers was a big problem then. They lose one of their top corners, and Joey Porter Jr. Takes a Henry knee to the shoulder and neck area, leaves for the rest of the game. They're playing a man down in the secondary. Really, a whole lot of reads and RPOs by Lamar and Derrick Henry were called perfectly and executed perfectly. It still wound up being relatively close to the Ravens were able to pull away late. Now, on the other side, Zee flowers is a big part of the passing game because of the things that he does that nobody else on the team does. It's just different. It provides a different look for the defense, and you're able to get the ball out to him quickly on screens where Nelson Aguilar and Rasha Bateman aren't duplicating that.

It puts more pressure on Mark Andrew, who had another great game against the Steelers. But the cascading effect does take points away where 10 points to me would have been absurd if the teams were at full strength. It feels even more absurd now at this point. Yeah, it's amazing. They have to encourage action. Lines are to spur action, and they want action on the game. So it started off the 10.

I get that, too, but it's also on the statistical profile, which for the Ravens offense is outrageous. It's historic. And because they have so many Ls in their standing, and look, 12 and 5 is a great record. They had a tough schedule. It's not anything to be embarrassed about. But because there's a decent amount of them, people don't think of them in historic terms. But yeah, I've been mentioning DVOA a lot. They're top three all time. Their combination of explosive passing plays being extremely regular, and both explosive running gains and sustaining running games is just a lot to deal with. And they're not afraid to go down the field. Neither are the stealers, but they're so efficient at doing it. You're right, losing Zee hurts because he opens up, I think, a lot for other people. He's the guy that other defenses worry about the most. I do I think Rashaad Bateman looked fantastic in week 18 and overall had a really strong season. I mean, his final numbers really show what a big step forward. He's got a suddenness to him. He's a nice downfield threat. They still have the tight ends. They still have the running game.

So they still have Lamar Jackson, not just how great he is throwing the ball this year, but really made a point to run. This is the one defense, though, that has consistently stopped him running. That was even true three weeks ago. And that game, to me, was very reliant on those two turnovers, the Ravens force. It's funny because I think it's the only time Russell Wilson actually played well over the last month was against the Ravens. He just had those two turnovers, which were massive play. So I guess he didn't play that well. But other than those two plays, I thought he played one of his best games of the season. If you're a Stealers fan, there's a little bit of encouragement to take from that because the Ravens defense has really played well, and it's one of the few times a A quarterback has looked good against them in the last six or seven weeks.

Yeah. Lamar's got these four interceptions this season, a couple of them coming against the Pittsburgh Stealers. One incredible play by the rookie, Payton Wilson on Justice Hill down the sideline. Another was the play before that Russ pass that was picked off by Marlon Humphrey, where Rasha Bateman stops running and Lamar throws one out in the flat. The Stealers pick it off. There's the give and the take. And again, all the Mo believers, the Steelers should have scored after that interception. It turns out the Ravens get the turnover because cause and effect, the things that you do actually are what matters. But that's how close even that game was. So again, 10 points, nine and a half points. It's all silly to me.

Yeah, now that said, they've lost four in a row. I think the two worst teams in the playoffs are the Stealers and the Texans. That's my opinion, how they're playing right now. I think they're two average teams. And for the most part, the playoffs are above average teams. Russ is in their offense is playing their worst overall at the worst time. I think there's fair questions about how Mike Tomlin prepares this team. He goes so He goes so hard in training camp. He goes so hard in terms of their practice schedule. You look at how they faded down the stretch a number of times. I'm always cautious to make cause and effect on these things, but they haven't finished well, and especially their pass rush seems tired. Tj Watts seems tired. That's the number one thing, I think, to watch in this game. Their pass rush just needs to be better. It wasn't any better than the Ravens' pass rush was when they played in that game. It wasn't any better than the Bengals was last week. That's where their dudes are at. The guards for the Ravens, especially, or maybe even Rosengarden, I think they're vulnerable if they get into some passing situations.

Ravens, they got to show up. They blitzed a ton against the Ravens last time, and it didn't work at all. That's it to me. If we see a real Watt, Herbig, Hayward, Highsmith game, they got a chance. But if they keep playing the way they've played over the last month, it's not just Russell Wilson in terms of big names that have fallen off. They haven't fallen off as much, but they haven't been special. And that's, to me, the number one thing I'm watching in this game. If they show up, then you might be sweating this out.

No. Well, Greg, I'm going to be sweating out regardless. But I do, because you mentioned T. J. Watt, just awaiting whenever the season ends. I feel like we're going to find out and get some context for whatever Watt was dealing with down the stretch this season because the number drop off matches what the eye test shows. Something's not right.

Fair. Before we move to the next game, do you think Justin Fields has a chance to play here? How long do you think Russia Wilson's leash is?

Well, in terms of a leash, I- I mean, being flat out replaced for at least an entire series or two and see how it goes. No, it's going to have to be I think he would play himself all the way out of the game. It would have to be TJ Yates against the Bengals. Or maybe it was Andy Dalton that had the bad game in that one. But it's just going to have to be a categorical two picks and a fumble on a weird pitch. I think Tomlin is sticking with Russ for the remainder of the season.

I disagree. I don't feel strongly about it. I just think there's a better chance than people think that Russ could get pulled sooner than later, and it might not even need to be catastrophic because this is it. This is the last game. He's seen a lot. Yeah, he started better than Russ, and everyone was apologizing for questioning the Over the last five weeks, he's now playing at a lower level than their offense was with fields. It'd be quite a change-up. It'd be quite a ballsy move. I'd like to see it, so maybe I'm just wish-casting. It'd be interesting. But I don't give the Steelers a ton of a chance. Ultimately, this is what the Ravens do. They improve late in the season while the Steelers are falling apart. They figure out their defensive problem They either add guys on defense or they actually just get rid of them like they did with Eddie Jackson. They figure out their problems and apparently just kick him off the team, or he got himself kicked off the team. They're playing their best right now, and the Seelers are facing their worst. Even if you I'm going to end up sweating it out a little bit, I actually think the Ravens cover the number here.

Yeah, let's go Ravens.

I'll take that.

Okay, let's go to the Bills game. I mentioned I thought the two worst teams in the playoffs were probably the Texans and the Steelers. I think the Bill's got a tough draw relatively in that the first thing I look for in these games are who's winning the battle of the line of scrimage and coaching, and obviously, quarterbacks. Quarterbacks, It's as, obviously, as big a mismatch as you could have. Now, coaching, I would never doubt Sean Payton in a one-game situation. Not saying he has some huge advantage over McDurant, but he's awesome. And the line play, that's where I'm really getting to that it's a difficult matchup. You got to I favor the Broncos. The biggest mismatch in this game, other than the quarterbacks, is the pass protection that the Broncos should have for Bo Nicks against a pretty mediocre pass rush to bad for the Broncos. And then on the other side, it's strength on strength. It's one of, if not the best pass rushes in the entire NFL against one of the best offensive line. You'd have to give the Broncos a slight edge there. That's closer. It's strength on strength, but even a slight edge there.

If you tell me you got a great coach and you got two great lines, you got a chance. And I like the Broncos to make them sweat it out.

I do as well, Greg, because another part of that is thinking about how Zack Allen is double-teamed on almost 35% of his pass rushes. I believe it's above, it's north of 35%. We've seen what the Broncos can do on offense, particularly in the screen game, late, where I think you can challenge this Bill's team in the secondary, as well as with Courtland Sutton, that best, that one option where the reason I was able to successfully pick that Rams game over the Buffalo Bills was the mismatch that Puka Nakuwa provides. Now, I'm not saying that Courtland Sutton is in that Puka range as a problem giver for the Buffalo Bills. But I think in terms of the matchup, he's got an advantageous look where if the Bills are going to win this game, it's going to have to be Josh and the offense going up and down the field because it's going to be very difficult, I think, where if you try to corral Bo Nicks, we saw him make several plays to Marvin Mims Jr. Over the course, Tony Franklin has gotten worked in to the deep game as well. They have those options where the Sean Payton screen, one of the more effective plays, now I can't do them.

It did almost cost them the game against the bangles. They were able to get in the overtime in that game, but they can hit them at any time, and they're very successful at running.

Yeah, he's very good at picking out mismatches, and the Bills are a good defense, but there are spots where you can find a linebacker coverage, whether it's Matt Milano, who has come back from the injury, but has generally been sitting out on third down. So I think they're telling us something about his usage. Maybe they'll change that for the playouts, but whether it's him or Dorian Williams in pass coverage or some of the safeties, if you try to get McGloughlin matched up on DeMar Hamlin or however it's going to be in terms of just... Payton is so good at that, that he has problems to every team. And Bo Nicks is decisive and he executes it. And he is a high-variance player, really good plays. He'll have some misses and negative plays, but they're going to have a chance to possess the ball, I think, in this game and shorten the game. The number one X factor is, though, who are we talking I hear. We're talking about Josh Allen, the potential MVP at his absolute apex, and a great running game to support him, of which he's a part of. That's great. The Broncos could play their A game, and he could just play...

Great offense beats great defense, and he could just beat everything you want to do. It's hard to blitz him. He's great against the blitz. They're great running the ball, and that's probably the way you want to beat Vance Joseph, just to get out of those long yard situation. So they have every answer, and he could just, just like Lamar, I should have said with him, if they play their eight plus game, they're so good, they're going to win, unless they're playing each other like they very well could be next week. So that's part of it, is like their ceiling is obviously higher. That's why the number is so big. But I think if you just take out Josh Allen, then these two teams look a lot more even.

Yeah, which is an exceedingly difficult thing to do. That's a stupid thing to do, too. It's stupid. But between nick Benito has had a great year, a great year, showing that explosiveness that you have to have on the edge to deal with Lamar and Josh Allen, to where it's not necessarily corralling them, but just having the ability to bother them when they're back there doing that thing, where either one of them, Josh Allen, in this instance, floats towards the right sideline, where the play is never over. He's completed multiple passes this season where he's actually been in the air, out of bounds. It's that borderline where you're having to deal with this quarterback out on the edge, having to not hit him late, but also try to keep him from firing the ball 50 yards downfield, where I think the Bronco's secondary in terms of the matchups does have the advantage against the Bills' receiver's. Not necessarily like, Kincaid and Knox, but the Bills' receiver's still waiting on Amari Cooper's personal issue. He was able to go home from the team, and Sean McDermott says it's full leeway. We just hope Amari's back and hope he's okay.

But the matchup, whether he plays or not, I think favors the Bronco's secondary, purely discussing the pass catchers.

Cooper is an interesting point. I should have mentioned that he has really played as their fourth receiver Snap-wise, but he, like I was talking about with Christian Watson, he provides something just the rest of the team doesn't in terms of his savvy. And yeah, Kean Coleman could make a big play, but I'm trusting Amari on the boundary and his versatility So that is something to watch. Reilly Moss came back from his injury and hasn't played as well. So he's someone to keep an eye on. And yeah, it's like that Stealers game in terms of the underdog. It's about that pass rush for me. It's not just Benito, who's a defensive player of the year candidate. Should be on ballots, I think. He really has been that good. Sertan, who will be on ballots, might win the award. And it's Cooper, it's Franklin Myers. They have a lot of guys. If they can just harass Josh repeatedly over and over and win that battle against a good Bills offensive line, they got a chance. All right, let's go to the Chargers game. It's actually in the West of this window, but it's a It's a fun one.

I love the quarterback matchup seeing Stroud in his second time in the playoff, seeing Herbert in full flow. We're going to talk about this at length, like I mentioned in this Seth Payne interview that we're going to throw to after the break and wrap the show up. But I always want to hear what Patrick has to say. How good of a chance do you see it? It's a road favorite here, chargers by 3, and we get Charles Davis and Iron Eagle. What a great playoff lineup of announcers. I love me some Charles and Iron in the playoffs.

Yeah, just a great crew. A game will be a little to see on CBS or stream on Paramount Plus, where you've got two teams that have beaten one playoff team. Now, advantage for the chargers, they were able to beat the Broncos twice, so they get two wins against playoff teams. And the Texans have that win over the bills. In terms of how the season goes, it feels like it was a very long time ago, but they've still got that talent where they're able to complete. I think Nico Collins is in that discussion of range, top five receivers in the NFL, where when C. J. Stroud is targeting Nico Collins, it's like all those problems of the season just aren't really there.

Who's third in yards per out run over the last couple of seasons? Who's that? It's Pukha, Justin Jefferson, and Niko. That's the company he's keeping.

When he's looking at 12, all things are great. It's when he's not targeting Nico Collins, the issue is rouse up. We got two really good rookie defenders in Tarheep still and Bullock over on the other side for the Texans, where it's a great match. I give Houston, I think, a better chance than most in this game, especially with it being at NRG.

Yeah. The big home field advantage. We talk about that with Seth. My main thing is that the running game behind Herbert has gotten better, and that more than anything, we are back to throw, Herber. The air yards have gone way up, the yards per attempt have gone way up, and just the eye test the last couple of weeks, he hit an opposite hash throw last week against the Raiders, where he was standing on his own three-yard line. And he completed it to the other sideline at the 50. And it was like nothing. And he is just going for those types of throws in a way that I didn't see the confidence from him, or maybe it was in his receiver's or the system early. So he is playing his best, whereas EJ is, to me, up and down, and they can control the ball. Interestingly, the charges are really good playing ball control offense by passing the ball. And ultimately, I think their offense is just too good. But yes, I'm going to talk about that with Seth at length. Everyone, stay for that. It's a great conversation. We're actually going to wrap the show with Seth.

While we're talking chargers, breaking news, literally, as we're speaking, the Raiders have fired Tom Tilesco, who lasted one year there in Las Vegas after being with the chargers. Earlier this week, we spoke at length. It was a good conversation about the Antonio pierce, and we said, Yeah, Telesco is there for now. We'll see what this means in terms in terms of who is coming into the building, the feedback they're getting. Maybe they're zeroing in on someone that didn't want Telesco. Maybe they just decided once Mark Davis talked to the other owners, Tom braided, that there was no scenario where it made sense to keep Cazalesco. So he is out as well as Antonio pierce. Ultimately, I think that's the best way to run franchises is hire your GMs and your coaches at the same time. But like Antonio Piers, it's like, what chance did Tom Tilesko really get this year. Not that he was amazing in with the chargers. He was fine, but it's like he took over an impossible situation.

Yeah, it rigs to me. If you're going to make this decision for both of them after a season, then why'd you put them in this position in the first place, especially Tom Tilesko coming from across the division. But hey, if somebody gets a shot, I guess, at hiring a coach or being brought in with a coach and the number six overall pick. Hey, good luck to you.

I am really intrigued by the Riders Coaching Search. They have the most interesting list of candidates, but where our focus is on the playoffs. Yes, we're going to throw it a break and we'll listen to Seth Payne. Appreciate you, Patrick. Stay safe. Yes, we will be back on Friday with our usual Picks show with Cynthia from home. It'll be me and Seth on the other side. Back on NFL Daily with one of my favorite guests. And just speaking out of self-interest, it occurred to me this week, this could be the last time the Houston Texans play a game. And that means it's probably the last time I got a chance to get on. Like I said, one of my favorite guests, Seth Payne. Your mouth is a gape, Seth.

Stop, no, stop. You You had me on because this might be the last opportunity because you think so lowly of the Texans. I can't deny that that makes sense, unfortunately. Yeah. Thanks, though.

I appreciate it. Well, you just never know. Either we're going to be talking at the very beginning of what's going to be a surprising and magical run deep into the playoffs, or it'll be a chance to close the book. Look ahead to this game, but also this is a team that fascinates me. It's a franchise that fascinates me. We talked all the way back in August, I believe, and then we talked when they were on Thursday night football around Halloween and just checking in with them. They lost to the Jets. Yeah, that was tough. Coming into this season, we think, maybe are they going to be the team that challenges the Chiefs, we feel differently. They're in such a strange place. Just big picture, before we get into the game, where do you think they are in year two here of D'Mico-Rian's tenure, back to back,FC South Championship back-to-back playoff spot after a three-year period where they won 10 games combined. I do like to present that context. It's easy to forget. Bill O'Brien was the coach just a few years ago. It was Bill O'Brien, and then David Culley, and then Lovie Smith, and now Dimeco Ryan.

So he's done a great job, but yet this feels like a disappointing season heading into the playoff.

It is because of the way the second half of the season has gone for sure. But then the entire season, the offense has been a disappointment, especially... When we talked to you in August, it was, Hey, you got Stefan Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell. Man, it's going to be an aerial assault. And even though those three guys were never on the field together that much, when they were, it wasn't overly impressive from the passing side of things. And then even when they would have it various times, Okay, you've got Nico and Tank out there. You've got Stefan and Tank. They could just never get the pass game going. And C. J. Stroud, obviously, has not had the same performance this year that he did last year. He didn't build on the promise of his rookie year. So that's been the really frustrating thing. And I'll The defense played very well. There have been a few things that have kept them from being a genuinely elite defense, but you got a defensive-minded head coach. The defense is doing great. Frankly, in a lot of ways, it feels like Luffy Smith back with the bears when the defense was awesome.

And man, they managed to make it to a Super Bowl, feasting on turnovers and whatnot. But they didn't have a guy that had the promise of CJ Stroud. That's been the really frustrating part of it.

Yeah, the numbers tell the story. In terms of DVOA, they're 16th, which feels about right in terms of... They just feel like about an average team overall. But the third in defense, not a dominating defense, it's not a year with great defense, but third in defense, 26th in offense. Very surprising. I actually want to start. Let's start with the positive because there is a route to winning this game, and it's on the defensive side of the ball. You have the edge rushers, which are as good as any team in the league. You're going up against a chargers team who have good tackles. But Rashaun Slater is coming off of an injury. They might be rotating their guards because they haven't quite chosen one. That's not a great sign, and not a team that has a ton of playmakers, I guess. Tell me how you feel this defense looks right now. How and how they match up.

The biggest issue with the defense right now is that their slot corner started off being Jalen Petrie, and Jimmy Ward was playing safety. Jalen Petrie got injured, so now Jimmy Ward goes down to play the slot corner, which in this defense, they use really effectively, at least with the previous two guys. But now they're stuck with a beleagered secondary, and Miles Bryant will play the slot corner at times. Kamari Lasseter will, but it's The strength of that defense, it's a frustrating thing. The money positions, the defensive ends and the cornerbacks, they are in great shape. They got Daneel Hunter and Will Anderson up front. You've got Kamari Lasseter and Derek Stingley at cornerback. But because of the disheveled secondary, Kamari Lasseter has to move around a little bit. You don't feel like you maybe necessarily can shadow with Derek Stingley as well as you could in the past. But look, the biggest thing the defense can do, aside from playing really good coverage, is they take the ball away, and they're still top five in the league in takeaways. But as you know, it's really hard to make a playoff run feast on turnovers. And you go back to, if you're not an all-time defense, but you can take the ball away a lot, the bears twice with Dixcheron and Lovie Smith, a long time ago, had really nice runs in the play house doing that.

It's just you can't bank on it. And then they allow too many explosive plays. They've allowed in the top three in passing touch downs all year. So they've just got little glitches that keep them from being really good. And when I watch Justin Herbert, I feel like, man, I've spent the last two days almost becoming a Chargers fan that feels like Justin Herbert is not getting enough respect because you look at his numbers. You're like, okay, yeah, they're not actually all that much different from some of his previous years in his career. But I think he's doing exactly what Jim Harbaugh is asking him to do, which is Jim Harbaugh style, run the hell out of the ball, take your opportunities where they're there. But he's not turning the ball over at all. He's turned the ball over three times. It's a second fewest turnovers of somebody that's passed more than 500 pass attempts in a season. And I think he's playing like... He isn't a game manager, but he's managing the games really well, and he's still making some pretty spectacular throws. So I'm nervous about the fact that the Texans have had these lapses where they allow these explosive plays, and Justin Herbert is just the guy to do that.

Right. And he's always been a game manager. That's what's bothered me about him, if anything. I love Herbert. Since the day he came in the league, I thought this is going to be the next great quarterback. And I think he is a great quarterback. He's been a top 10 quarterback in my mind since he entered the league. That's hard to find, but he hasn't quite reached the top level. But if he has anything It's his fault. He's too safe. I think over the last month, especially, he's playing his best football, like ripping the ball, very aggressive. I don't think he's playing safe lately. They're starting to hit those explosive plays. Their offense is peaking now. I do wonder, especially Quitten Johnson coming off of a great game, who covers Lad McConkey on this team? If they struggle over the middle of the field covering, and some of the numbers agree with what you're saying there, the chargers are fourth in EPA, passing over the middle of the field, and that's where McConkey does his work.

Yeah, exactly. He worked in the beginning of the season, mostly in the slot, and they've started to move him outside more. But that's where the Texans get in a bind, is that D Eric Stingley doesn't play in the slot. If you move Kamari Lasseter down into the slot, then you've got either guys you don't feel awesome about on the outside. And Quentin Johnson, yeah, he had that... Quentin Johnson My best hope for Quentin Johnson at times in this game might be that Quentin Johnson does a good job defending himself by dropping the football. Which is the thing. And that's another part where I go back to Herbert. He's been doing this with a developing Lad McConkey, and he's very polished as a rookie, but he's a rookie still. Without the full compliment of receiver he had when he put up some of those more prolific numbers earlier in his career. But again, when I look at the Texans defense, the one big thing is that at home in an NRG stadium, they made Josh Allen throw complete 30% of his passes. Jared Goff- There you go. Thrive. Five interceptions for Jared Goff, Tua threw three interceptions, and Tua's Chippie.

Two or three interceptions in a day where he barely threw past the line of scrimmage. So there's that. Don't ask me about Lamar Jackson.

Different scenario. Okay. That was late in the year. I want some Texans' optimism. Give me a little bit of the vibe of D'Amico, because there is something to to the fact that they made the playoffs a year ago. They're in year two of their run. Harbaugh is in year one. They have an experience winning. They have a home field advantage, and no one's going to be picking them for this game. I don't know if that's really going to fire everyone up, but Rex Ryan was on TV saying this was basically a buy for the charges.

He did, yeah. Basically, he said it. He said they got a buy. That was perfect, though. I think that's... D'amico, all year long, like every coach in the NFL has talked about, you got to avoid the outside noise. Don't listen to the outside noise. The great thing about Rex Ryan is that that was such a perfect chip to put on a shoulder that I think you can play the disrespect card there and get people fired up. I think the defensive guys, I love the defense. They play like psychos, like the right psychos. They all look like they want to do harm to the opponent. Offense, not so much.

They're a bunch of nice fellows. We'll get to the offense. Give me a little bit on how you I think Stingley has played this year.

Oh, he's been great, man. Because his biggest thing, really, in his first couple of years, was just staying healthy. And last year, I think he played at a Pro Bowl caliber. He just only played however many games. I think nine games by the time they voted on the Pro Bowl. So this has been his first completely healthy season. And the fun thing about him is that he's just in complete command and control all the time. I've always been most jealous of defensive backs in terms of athleticism, because the guys that are really good, like Stingley, they can move in all directions. They can turn their hips. They can do all those things. They're like gymnasts on a football field. And that's what Stingley is like. And he's gotten to that point now where he can bait people a little bit. There's a lot of times he tracks the ball really well. So there's times where it feels like Stingley, even when his back is still turned to the quarterback, has a better feel for when the is going to arrive than the receiver himself. So that's his ability to create turnovers. Kamari Lasseter and Kaylen Bullick, the rookie, they've both had a bunch of interceptions.

So their ability to either intercept the ball or horse fumbles and strip sacks and everything. That's real. There's a lot about this Texan's team that disappointed, offensively, certainly, but even defensively, they haven't quite reached where I think they're capable of being, but they take the ball away a lot.

Right. And you mentioned having two rookie players in the secondary, and it's very similar to the chargers with Tarheib Still and who is it? Kam Hart. But I think Lasseter and Bullock have been even better. Bullock made an incredible interception last week that was overturned. There is something to, I don't know, he's a defensive coach, and his defense is doing the job. If you just look at the players, who are great players, I think the Texans You have more of them overall. They certainly do on the defensive side. Bosa and Mac are not who they used to be as the Edge players. For the chargers, it seems a little more like scheme and effort, which goes a long way, but that maybe their defense is a little more vulnerable. Whereas if one side of the ball for either team is going to just step up and star players are going to show out, it could be Hunter and Anderson and Stingley. And Aziz Alshair, I feel like, is mostly known nationally for the suspension, but he was really good this year. He really matters for them, and he's back in.

No, I'm glad you brought him up because especially when you go back to that Ravens game, the linebackers and the defensive ends. The defensive ends, they weren't playing the zone read and all of that element that goes with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson very well at all. But the linebackers, especially without Aziz Alshire back there, directing traffic, alerting guys. There have been times this year, the Jacksonville game, actually, there was a goal line stand that was really critical, and the Texans ended up winning the game. But Aziz basically told the defensive line exactly what play was coming. That veteran leadership and then being able to keep guys on their keys and know the tendencies and get everything altogether, that's a big difference. I agree with you 100 % in terms of the names and the impact playability of the guys on the defense is really good. It's just they're going up against the quarterback who's only thrown three interceptions on the year. He hasn't had a multi-interception game. It's going to be on them, and they're capable of doing it. It's a really big if because the other side of it is that the Texans' offense, I don't even know where they rank in the rushing stats right now because it doesn't matter.

Dead last and success rate.

Dead last and success rates are the ones that matter. Their second running back getting hit in the backfield. And I can't tell you how many times there were this year, Greg, where Joe Mixon would have 140 yards rushing. And immediately after the game, they couldn't run the ball for crap because it was like one or two huge Joe Mixon runs where he broke a tackle in the backfield, bounced it outside. But the success rate, the ability to run on first and second down consistently, it just gets him in third long all the time. And then the pass protection, they've improved some of the egregious stuff from earlier in the year. But CJ is just... He's getting harassed all the time, and it's a really hard watch. That part of it is a really hard watch.

It is, yeah. So I mentioned 26th overall in offense, but in terms of allowing pressure, in terms of the running game, the offensive line still is banged up. You have Shaq Mason not practicing. I assume he's out for this game, so they're trying to figure things out. Where do you think Stroud is at? I wanted to be optimistic and watched last last week's game and see a really good first drive where they scored a shutdown. And to your point about running the ball, they tried to run it on the goal line, and they couldn't. I was like, this is perfect. They ran right down the field and they got stuffed on the goal line. They were bad in short yards, but they did throw for the countdown to Nico, I think from the one or two yard line, and you got out of there with a perfect countdown. He just seems like, to me, from the outside, an emotional player that when it's going well, it's going well, and he's in rhythm, and it's incredible. And when it's not, maybe it's just the negativity. It's just getting worse and worse. He gets stuck in it.

I don't know if that.

Yeah. Well, the one big moment was when Tankdel got injured in the Chiefs game. It was as Tankdell... I mean, Tankdell's knee got blown apart, and he held onto the ball on a deep shot into the end zone. It was a great play. That was in a game where they were clicking with Tankdell. They were playing well. Yeah. Tank had six in the first half and plus that one. He was playing as well and was getting as many touches as he had all season long. Then it just went kaput. Immediately after that play, CJ came in and they drove down into the red zone, but then CJ made a couple of really bad errors. The next week, he didn't really show up. That's the only time all year where we were wondering, I think, if CJ just almost had been broken mentally or something or emotionally. I think week to week and within a game, I don't worry about... I think he's pretty stable. He's pretty calm, cool, and collected. The thing about it, though, is that you could almost see it as the season progressed, is he started to get hit more and more and more.

The process got sped up. I think you started to see more inaccurate throws, like errant throws, even when there wasn't pressure, or there's times where you could just see him trying to figure out, All right, when do I need to get rid of the ball quickly? When do I need to check down? When When can I string the play out a little bit longer? And then there's been speculation that maybe he's way more banged up than he's let on or than we know, and that might provide... You don't want to make excuses. He's flat out said that he doesn't want to make excuses for that. But there's so many things wrong with the offense right now that it's really hard to talk about one underperforming group without also thinking about the three other underperforming groups that are contributing to that. And it's It's a big soggy house of cards, like a house of cards in a rainstorm or something. There's no solid foundation anywhere.

Yeah, that Bobby Sloak has constructed, and he's out here getting an interview with the Jets for a head coaching job, and I can't be the only one thinking at this point, and I don't want you don't want to be rooting for guys to lose their jobs. But if I had to guess, if they have a bad offensive performance, I wouldn't necessarily expect Bobby Sloak to be back as as the coordinator without knowing anything, just how it's operated, because I think for half a season, CJ was heroic. He was making it work despite terrible surroundings, and eventually it caved in on him, but they haven't had solutions. Do you have any optimism that they could find some here at the last second?

Whether it's the coordinator or the offensive line doesn't seem to be executing fundamental things all that well. Whatever it is, there needs to be a systemic change, whether that's changing coaching personnel or their methodology or approach to life. I don't know. Maybe they need to go from... Maybe they need to be Presbyterians instead of Methodists. I don't have a clue. It's really, really bad. And you know where it all came to head was in the Ravens game, really, because you look at the Ravens this year, and in Lamar Jackson's second year with Todd Monken, he looks He looks like a polished NFL passing quarterback, but he can still run the hell out of the ball. It's just everything that you wondered about for years with, Okay, is it Greg Roman's fault? Is it Lamar Jackson's fault? I don't know. But Harbaugh, and it's hard to criticize Harbaugh, but Harbaugh probably waited too long to make a decision on just changing. Whether you wanted to blame Greg Roman or not or whatever, change for changes sake sometimes is a good thing. And if you drag it out and drag it out and drag it out, I think you can stymia a guy's growth a little bit.

And I don't mean to act like Lamar Jackson wasn't a really good passer before. It's just this year, it's all come together. He's doing all the finer aspects of the game, balancing when to take shots, when not to, when to run the ball, just pushing the ball outside the numbers with ease. It's the complete and total package. And I don't think that you can extend this experiment any longer down the road. You've got to make some... Even if the Texans make a nice playoff run here somehow, you got to make some change.

It's tough to do. It's tough to change the coordinator after even winning one playoff game, much less two. I'd be stunned if they won two. I would be moderately surprised if they won this weekend. But it's not one where I look at the three-point spread for the and think, That's a home run. It wouldn't shock me because I do believe in CJ wholeheartedly. The Bryce versus CJ arguments have popped up again, and I've loved what Bryce Young has done, but I have no I really have no questions about C. J. Stroud's future. We do got to go, but do you? I think he's going to be locked in near the top. How close to the top? We'll find out. But to me, he has obviously shown enough enough at this level at such a young age. I really have no doubts about him in a similar way that I had for Herbert. Different because he's not just crazy talented, but that he's going to be a very good starter at worst for a long time.

Yeah, no, I have zero concerns about it. If it comes, I'll be very surprised if he's not better next year. Again, I think they got to make some changes offensively. But the long term, my My long-term confidence in him is unshaken. The biggest thing really with him is, ultimately, I think it's going to be really good for him to have gone through this year because, man, there was so much love and praise heaped on all those guys offensively in the offseason. It becomes a cliché when you talk about nick Saban's rat poison or anything, just reading your press clipping. I think there are a lot of guys in that offense that didn't genuinely understand how really hard it is to win in the NFL. And that's something that happens sometimes when you play in the AFC South. So this was a good lesson for a lot of guys. You're a vet.

Multiple teams.

I was an AFC... Look, I played for two teams that were both in the old AFC Central. Now, That was a hard division to win, my friend, especially when it was six teams. So, yeah, this AFC South, I've never felt comfortable being an alumnus of it.

Oh, man. Yeah, I'm sorry for misdivisioning you. I don't even know what was What's going on.

You didn't misdivision me. It doesn't exist anymore. That's all right.

That's fair. Yeah, I do think perspective-No, I played...

I was in the AFC South when I was with the Texans, but the first five years was in the AFC Central.

Okay. Yeah, that makes sense. Back with the Jags. I don't want to forget what a journey this team has been on. It was just a few years ago that they were stuck. Deshaun Watson was hurt. They didn't know everything. They had him. They got that trade pulled off despite everything that we knew about them. They had won 10 games over three years with three different coaches. The ghost of Jack Easterby was lingering. If their come-down season is 10: 00 and 7: 00, with an easy schedule, but 10: 00 and 7: 00 with a home division game and the offense bottoms out, that relatively is a very good place to be, as is anytime you're watching the Seth Payne show on YouTube. You got to check out Seth's YouTube channel. It's wild now. You're doing this thing where you're watching the highlights, and then you talk next to it. I didn't even know that's allowed, but that's amazing. I'm not trying to get you in trouble. That's great.

They let you all do. They let you do way more than... Don't tell anybody. It's a little secret thing. The NFL got really cool with the social media stuff where they'll take all the ad revenue from it, but they let you play highlights and everything as long as you give them their cut. Okay. It's very cool. You can't monetize the video, but for now, at least, it's a golden age of YouTube with the NFL content.

Yeah, check out @sethpainshow. You can check out. What is it? 610? Do I know this by heart?

Sportsradio 610 in Houston. That's it. Yeah. Go to the Odyssey app or just watch it. Watch us on YouTube is the easiest way if you're outside of Houston. Or go to the Odyssey app if you don't want to burn up all your data.

Maybe this won't be the last time we talk, Seth. Maybe I'll see you in New Orleans. Derek Barnet's got two touch downs this year.

A defensive line and a cast away from Philadelphia. It's two touch downs for the Texans.

Anything's possible. All right, that's it for our preview show. Thank you to Seth Payne, of course. Thanks to Steve Weish and Patrick Claybon. Yes, when we're bringing on Seth Payne, potentially for the last time in the season, you know football is back.

Not the calendar year, 2025, man. Very good.