Transcript of NFL Wild Card Playoff Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to NFL Daily, where neither snow, nor rain, nor heat, nor ash falling from the sky is going to stop us from getting our pics in. Yes, we are back. I'm in my somewhat smoky garage, I admit. Got to get back inside. And Cynthia Freeland is down the Coast a little bit. How are you doing this week, Cynthia?

I am in better shape than you. We're a little further. It's It seemed like further south was better. We're good here. The puppies and I are hanging out, making sure that they stay. I'm really psycho about making sure that we've got so many air purifiers going, that the husband seemed to be okay.

We're fine. That's the thing. We're close and we're right there. But it's also so crazy to be driving home. The couple of times I've driven home this week, especially on Wednesday on the 405, to be on the 405 as you're coming to the 10, and you look straight, and it's blue skies, if you just don't look. If you look two degrees to the left, you see the Palisades fire, and it's raging. You look two degrees to the right, and it's like, 2:00 PM, and you can see the Eaton fire. And to see both of that and then to drive into it. Obviously, we can see it essentially. It looks like it's at the end of our streets, but really, it's a couple of miles away or a mile away and there's a canyon between it. We just start feeling for everyone out there. Of course, we mentioned on the preview show with Patrick Claybon that the NFL is encouraging people to donate to redcross. Org/nfl. Com. So just mentioning that. Again, and I mentioned personally, Meals on Wheel West does a lot of great work with the elderly and people near the poverty line that can use food.

I know for a fact that they were delivering literally yesterday to their clients, and everyone in the Palisades was accounted for, which is really great on their end. And I know you just came back from a Costco run where you're picking up because you are that person, supplies for people that- Listen, I have not been to Costco in Southern California, and in a long, long time, and it was a wild experience.

But I'm also a big pet fan, so I wanted to make sure to be able to donate. There's a lot of pets that are displaced as well. So in addition to human stuff, which everyone needs more around here, there's also a lot of pets that you can help out as well. And that was very... Before we got started here, obviously pulled Clyde on because you hadn't met Clyde yet, so obviously, you need to meet him.

Yes, you're a beautiful dog. And we've got Nori in the backyard. We made a little tent over her so that the smoke, air, and the ash that's falling doesn't fall in her. You might be saying, Why are you doing a podcast? Look, we've got the whole rest of the day. I've got the next... Right. The next 48 hours, all I've been doing is doomscrolling and watching the news and getting our family ready for what we need to. But it's fine. It's okay to work. It's a good distraction a little bit for a few hours, as are our pics, except for last week. Not a good distraction. By the way, before I get further in the show, we are going to try to do a Saturday Night Recap Show live with Bill Barnwell on YouTube. I want people to go to the YouTube channel while I'm here. Yeah, like and subscribe it there, and you support us there and Cynthia's YouTube channel as well, Numbers game, and just check her out as well. All that out of the way. Getting into our pics. We did not have a good week 18. Let's just ignore it. We literally didn't win a game.

Week 18 got us with all the sitting starters, and we thought we were cute, and you pushed one of your games, which at least was a normal game. That's funny. Technically, you didn't go 0-3. That's just funny. You went 0 and 2. That's just funny.

That's just pure comedy right there.

But we're still over 500 for the year. We're going to bounce well over, and we're going to bounce back. If you check out the game, Dave, you picked, which we keep track of, I'm 20 over against the spread all year. So I'm annoyed I'm not higher in this format, but we're still above 500. We're going to bounce back. You give me your first pick. This is the show where we make three pics a week.

Okay. So I'm going to start down in, I guess it's Sunday night, and down in Tampa. I think that the Bucks, it's a three-point line is what I'm seeing right now, and I think that the Bucks cover that. These lines are really interesting this week. I don't look at anything and I'm like, I feel so confident. But I think that one is the one where I feel like the experience of Todd Bulls in this situation, We added pieces to the defense, Antoine Winfield Jr. That's a huge upgrade in their secondary. That's a huge, massive deal. I think that one, Tampa, by at least three points. I wish it was two and a half, But whatever. It is what it is.

I'm joining you. I had a feeling both of us were on the Bucks last week. Obviously, we lost that. And that was a division matchup. Didn't expect that. They were lucky to get out of there with a win, much less winning by eight in the end, the way the Saints defense played them. But I think these playoff numbers, they're hard in terms of nothing sticks out because you have less to choose from. The numbers at the end of the season, they're tighter. I was glad to see this one because to me, this was the only obvious one for me as well. This was my number one pick. I'm with you that I think they're a little undervalued because to me, these two teams, if you look at all the numbers, are quite even, and that's why it's three over the course of the season. But ultimately, their best, to me, is so much better, I think, than the Commander's best. They're a high variance team, I'll admit it, but even their average game in the Commander's average game, that's close, but their best, I think, could win by a couple of scores here. Even if you just look at the players, their defense is a little better.

They do have better players overall in their secondary and up front. Jalen McKmillon, I'll take him over any wide receiver, too, from Washington. I really like their offensive line. If you compare them to the offensive line of Washington, their tight end, Kedott, and I take them over Zekert. It's all these little advantages. It's not a huge thing. Jaden Daniels is tough to deal with, and the Bucks defense is nothing special. But like I said, this is the one I really like. I think they get back to the divisional round. It'd be the fourth time in the fifth year for your boy, Baker Mayfield and Jason Light. I don't know if Jason Light is your boy, but they're pretty good there in Tampa.

I think Todd Bowles is my favorite of all the people in Tampa. I just think he is salt of the Earth. Plus, they have a guy from Okeumus on their staff. Duh. Tied-in coach is from Okeumus. So we love that.

He's got a good hometown here. You are a Todd Bowles guy. And it's good they won that game last week. I literally was thinking at halftime, Man, if they lose this game, who knows what could happen there. But now, if you get back to the divisional round, like I said, fourth time in fifth year, that would be outrageous. It's crazy. They actually have more wins than any team, Cynthia, in the NFC over the last five years. Pretty good. Are you going NFC or AFC with your next pick?

I'm going to go. This one, the points make me I like it a lot more. I was a little surprised. I was shocked by my model. I should say I should sell it harder. But I actually have Houston winning in that first game this weekend. I have Houston at home, upsetting the Chargers. The Chargers are three-point road favorites. And while we've seen some disturbing things from this Texans offense, defense at particular times, I think there's a few things that really bolster this for me. Number one, the injury report for the Chargers includes both of their starting runningbacks. I think that JK Dobbins plays, but they did sign Ezekiel Elliott to the Practice Squad, which at least adds a little bit of fanfare to the idea that they're not completely healthy. I also saw Rashaun Slater. He practiced in full as of the last time the practice report came out, but practicing in full does not make you 100 % healthy. And Rashaun Slater has been excellent this season, but without him, that could be a much more difficult value proposition. We know that this Texans front brings pressure at the second highest rate. We know that their back end of their defense, they have backs it up with Derek Stingley Jr.

And Kamari Lasseter. I just think in this matchup in a one game sample size. If they can get that run game going like we saw from the Texans in week 18, which I know wasn't really for anything, I still think that that is an advantage over the chargers, at least if you're giving me three points, too. I have them winning on their own, but I think that But especially if you're giving me three points, it's just silly not to take that number.

Well, we're going against each other here. I'm going to be boring and be Johnny Public. I have a feeling this is going to be one of the heaviest bet games, and we're not allowed to bet, so we're just making-Not us. But I have a feeling this will be one of the heaviest action games. It's the first of the weekend. And I just think the public is going to be on the chargers because it seems too obvious. And generally, the public loses in those cases. Now, I have noticed with this particular weekend, I am on a lot of favorites this weekend, and it actually has been a favorites type of season and a public type of season. I don't know if that continues at all. That doesn't mean anything, obviously, on a pick-to-pick basis, but that's what this season has been like. I just look at the way the chargers are playing now. I look at the Texans are 26th in total offensive efficiency for the season, 26th. They're playing a defense that's not as good as the Texans defense. Mac and Bosa have been a little quiet lately, but what they've done well all season is beat bad offenses and make you beat them, go the long way down the field and just hold points down.

I think they're ninth in overall efficiency on defense. Part of that is their schedule, but this is an easy matchup for them, I think, ultimately. Then you just look at the way my guy Herbo is playing with so much much confidence. I've talked a lot about this game already on the show because we had Seth Payne on who does radio in Houston. We talked about this game for 25 minutes. I don't want to keep repeating myself. Ultimately, I lean chargers in a week where I don't have a lot of favorite picks This was my third favorite pick, but since you made it and I'm going against you, I'll go second with it. Give me your third pick. Unless you have anything else you want to jump in on there. No.

Look, gut-wise, I was surprised that the model went with Houston. Then I looked into a little bit more and some specifics, and I was like, I guess one point.

They have great players, great team. They're an average team, and you're an underdog at home. I can see why. You don't even have to win the game. You just got to have to keep it within three.

All right. I want to say that I want to take Philadelphia with the points to cover. But my problem is that as of right now, if Jordan Love doesn't play or is not okay, then that number is going to go in the wrong direction?

I think we could make our picks, assuming both starting quarterbacks are playing if you want. It's up to you. We could both put backup picks, not to give away my third pick is, too. We could have a backup as our fourth anyways, because I don't love it that much more, but this is also the game I'm going to pick. Oh, great.

Well, let's see. I'll just go purely on numbers. I guess I technically... Look, I'm going to tell you the numbers say right now, I technically like the RAMs plus one and a half by tiny percentage points- Well, that's not much.

Do you want to just go with the eagles as your pick? If that's the one you feel good about, let's go for it.

Yeah. My problem with the Rams pick is if any displacement happens, I don't want to get into that with Arizona and all that stuff. So I'm going to go with the Eagles to cover four and a half points, not eight and a half or whatever. If something When something weird happens, I wouldn't like that. But I think four and a half points is a manageable number for a team that has this defense, because for me, Josh Jacobs is the key that makes this offense work for the packers. And where does Josh Jacobs do his damage? He has the most yards, the most yards after contact, and the most touch downs between the tackles. Where does Jalen Carter live? Where does Jordan Davis live? In the middle. So getting the outside run going, and that's Zach Bond territory, no, thank you. I just think it's going to be very hard for the packers to sustain, English, sustain that level of efficiency and keep Jordan love. He's now been great against the blitz. Why? Because he's been in manageable downs and distances. He's not heaving it for no reason. This is a team that's so pot committed to rushing in the first half of games.

They've done it the most in the NFL. It's something like 49 %. There's been eight games or so where they've run for more than 50 % in the first half. It doesn't matter if it's situationally the right thing to do, they're doing it anyways because their rush rate over expected is something like plus 15 %. It's like massive numbers. You mess with Josh Jacob's ability to be efficient. It forecasts for a hard game for the pack.

Yeah, we didn't talk about that much on the previous show, so I'm really glad you did because I think Zack Bond- Bond, Bond, Bond. The reason he's been so good in part and been their skeleton key for is just unlocking everything is he can basically be a defensive lineman when they need him to be in the running game. And yet he's great if he's not on the line of scrimage and he's playing linebacker. He's truly a hybrid in a league that is looking for him. A guy that can basically play multiple positions. And yes, in this game, the Eagles defense and that Vic Fangio defense has gotten a lot of credit this year. And you think about the young secondary, and you think about Jalen Carter, and you make a good point there. But it's really a team defense defense that... Usually, Fangio's defense, that's their vulnerabilities against the run, and it is just not the case at all this year. So this is my pick as well. I'm going to go in the eagles, four and a half. We are together on two, and we're opposite on one, and we're only going to end up talking about three games, really, on this show because, yeah, that was the one I felt the best in.

And again, it's about whether you value the last month or do you value the course of the season. I think the The Packers are a really good team, but I agree with what Daniel, Jeremiah, and Brian Baldinger, our friends, said on NFL Network the other day when I was watching. They thought the Eagles are the favorites in the NFC. They should be.

I agree. If I have a Bobby Lane jersey behind me. They absolutely should be.

They just have so many different ways to beat you. I think they're well-coached.

I'm not saying that if the Lions are fully staffed. I'm saying that in the situation that we find ourselves in today, 100%. If I'm Yes. But that's the thing is that's why we play the full season, right? Because the lions, maybe that advantage will be enough. But my preseason pick for the Super Bowl, Chiefs, Eagles. Feeling pretty good about it right now.

Yeah, I had Bill's Lions, and I had Lion's Eagles in the NFC Championship game. So I feel good about all that. Don't ask me who else I had in the Championship game because I had them losing to the Chargers this weekend. So I don't think my Texans to the Championship game is going to happen. But I don't know if I'm going to pick the Eagles over the lines if that game happens, the home field advantage. I'm talking about them favorite in a vacuum. And so as good as this packer's team is, ultimately, I think the number one mismatch, and I didn't talk about this in interview in this game is the Eagles pass protecting when they need to. They're always in great situations for Hertz, third and three, third and four, whatever it is, first down. And I do think when they're going to need to pass, I just don't trust the packers to get on him at all. And maybe they'll have to blitz more, but they've shown they can pick that up and handle that well. And so I think there could be a lot of points in this game, even though they're two pretty good defenses.

But I just trust the Eagles to get over that number. In the end, you said the Rams would have been next for you. For me, it probably would have been... The Rams would have been the points. It probably would have been the Broncos.

I love the Broncos with the points, too.

Yeah, getting... They have a weird number. It feels like a lot. And you could see Josh Allen going crazy at the end of the game in what ultimately is a close game. But I just think the Broncos are a good team, and that's a lot of points to give a good team in the playoffs.

Okay, so we didn't have game Game Day View this week. Do you remember what you would have said for your write this down? I can go first because I know why I write this down offhand.

For our daily listeners, yes, who don't know Game Day View, write this down at the very end. We give our Maybe our favorite pick, but usually it's our favorite prop type of pick for the week. I got three in a row, but I've been riding Jamir Gibbs, and that's not available this week. I did not have one planned out.

You got to pick something else. You can onboard this one with me if you like. It is Kam Akers to have more than 23 and a half rushing yards against his former team. He's coming off a 65-yard outing on the ground against the Lions. If you're looking at Sam Darnold, what's the outlet? It's It's going to be the run. Is Aaron Jones 100%? Your girl doesn't know, but I do know that if I'm looking at 23 yards against your former team, are you kidding me? I love a good narrative thing that matches my math. So anger, revenge alongside math is like, that is the best combination.

He's been running really well lately. He passes the eye test, had a good... One of the few players who had a good week 18 against the Lions. I did not have one picked out. As I had mentioned, we had evacuated. We've been on the run We're back at home now. I did not do any game day view prep, and the show ended up getting canceled. But now that we're talking, and I'm thinking about these games specifically, and we're talking about the bills, I like just James Cook's rushing number, whatever it is. It's not a good way to pick props. It's just, Oh, whatever that number is. But ultimately, I do think that's the mismatch in this game. I think they've shown us they can win multiple types of ways, and I think they'll be patient with him. I think it's a James Cook game against the Broncos, that's where I would go.

Yeah. So I think a James Cook shutdown is where I'd go with that. I love... Same thing because the most rushing shutdowns was 16 on the season, 18 touch downs, tied for the second most among any players. And if you look at the difference between losses and wins for the Broncos, they allow rushing touch downs in losses, and they don't in wins. That's the rule of thumb for them this season. So if you think the bills are going to win, then you think, Hey, a rushing shutdown could happen. So that's how I'm playing that one, too. I think that James... I don't know the number offhand for him for rushing yards, but I'm liking the countdown odds.

I love that. And yes, apologies to the other two games this weekend that we just didn't even mention at all, but I don't know. A Raven stealers game with that big a number. I'd rather just watch the football and not stress out about it.

Let's see what happens. I want to see is George Pickens going to keep the lid on it or not? Because I just think this is the one where he's like,. It's going to be wild.

That is a fun side note. And yeah, Vikings, Rams, to me, is the most unpredictable game of the weekend. You could tell me anything would happen in the game, no matter where it is. I know, I guess you were leaning Rams if it's in Los Angeles.

I actually have the Vikings by one, so it was going to be Rams of the Points.

Got you. So the old threading the needle. But that's when I have no feel on. I just want to watch it and enjoy it, as we will do the rest of the weekend. Like I said, we're going to be back on Saturday night. We haven't done this. We did some TNFs early in the season, but it got difficult with the game debut schedule to do it live. I really appreciate everyone who has supported the show all season long. Let's get the community going. Show up Saturday night. We'll go live on YouTube, probably about 10 minutes after the game with one of the best in the business, Bill Barnwell, talking about two big AFC games. I'm really looking forward to that. I'm going to check out Numbers game on your YouTube channel in the meantime. Thank you, Cynthia. Yes, when we take the super out of Super Wild Card Weekend, you can't say super anymore. It is just Wild Card Weekend. That is when you know football is back. We will see you guys after.