Transcript of Hurricane Evacuation Saves Lives, Mass Gathering in D.C., Mortgage Rate Mystery

Hundreds of thousands of people evacuated ahead of Hurricane Milton's landfall this week in Florida.

Officials say that's one reason the death toll is lower than expected.

I'm Scott Simon.

And I'm Ayesha Rosco. This is Up First from NPR News. We talk to some of the people who fled.

You got to be a realist, and I'll always run if it's looking like it could kill us. Also a mass gathering in Washington, DC, today organized by people connected to the January sixth rally, the one that preceded the attack on the Capitol.

And why did mortgage rates climb even though the Fed lowered its target interest rate?

So please stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your weekend.

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More than 10 people have died as a result of Hurricane Milton.

Authorities say that number would be much higher if more people had stayed in their homes.

Npr's Adrian Florido has been talking to residents about their decision to stay or go, and he joins us now from Sarasoda, where Milton made landfall. Adrian, thanks for being with us. You're welcome, Scott. Residents who left are now returning home, and what do they find?

Well, some are finding damage and destruction, others that their homes were spared. I visited Deborah and Steven Lourts at their house yesterday. As soon as the storm passed on Thursday morning, they rushed out of the shelter that they had evacuated to. They were eager to see if their house had survived. They drove around down to the trees and power lines. We came around the waterway and mixed our way through and got here, and she was here. Their house was fine. The roof flushed just one shingle.

One little piece of shingle, which is just a miracle.

The Lourts are both Floridians in their 60s, Scott. They have lived through a lot of hurricanes, but they had never evacuated for one, they told me, until now.

Because this looked different than any of the others.

It had a beautiful eye, and the eye wall was thick. We saw that and we said, We're not staying. Adrian, how do they feel about their decision to leave?

Well, they said they would not have changed it.

Because you got to be a realist.

I'll always run if it's looking like it could kill us.

Scott, officials are saying that the fact that so many other people evacuated just like them is one reason that there weren't more deaths because a lot of homes were flattered in this storm. They were damaged or destroyed.

Of course, you also spoke with people who chose not to leave their homes despite the warnings.

Yeah, in fact, I spoke with the Lourdes' neighbors who lived just a few doors down. Osa Atoy and her partner, Joey, decided to ride it out.

Everybody's situation is different, and everyone needs to make the best decision for themselves.

Osa said that she and her partner did a detailed assessment of their house. It's made of concrete. It's got a brand new metal roof. They weren't worried about flooding because they're 16 feet above sea level.

Which sounds like nothing to other people, but that's one of the highest points in the city of Sarasoda.

People they know gave them flack for deciding to stay.

But we also, as a family, made decisions and felt safe staying in our home in our particular situation Osa says that she knows that for some people, even for some of her neighbors with different types of houses or at slightly lower elevations, this would not have been the right choice.

Of course, the worst did not come to pass with this hurricane. Are experts worried, Adrian, that this might affect how people respond in the future when storms come ashore?

I asked Yianis Zisis that. He's an engineer at Florida International University. He researches how to build more hurricane-resistant homes.

I'm concerned. I'm a bit afraid that the average homeowner, the next time they ask them to evacuate, they might think of, Oh, last time, nothing happened. No, it doesn't work like that. We should keep taking seriously this extreme events.

Especially, he says, because these storms are getting stronger, and people's houses might have structural weaknesses that they're not even aware of.

And Pierre Zadrion Florido in Sarasota. Thanks so much.

Thank you, Scott.

Yom Kippur is the traditional Jewish Day of Atonement.

Christian leaders called for people to gather today at the National Mall for Day of Atonement as well, women in particular.

Though the event is not expected to get violent, its leaders played a big role in the Stop the Steel movement four years ago.

Npr's domestic extremism correspondent, Odette Youssef, is here to tell us more about it. Odette, thanks for being with us. Sure thing. The organizers of this event call for a million women to gather at the Mall. How do they use the term Esther's? What's that about?

Yeah. To understand this, we have to look to the Hebrew Bible. This is a reference to the Book of Esther, which the story set in the fifth century BCE of Esther, the Jewish wife of the Persian king. According to this story, Esther became aware that one of the king's quarters was organizing a pagram against the Jews. She's is urgent by her relative, a man named Mordechai, to use her position of influence to thwart that plot, and she does. So today's rally is happening on the Jewish Day of Atonement, Yom Kippur, and it's calling on Christian women, the Esthers, and the men in their lives, the Mordechais, to fast and pray and gather on them all for the deliverance of the nation. And really, Scott, this is the national culmination of dozens of state-based rallies that were held back in the spring at state capitals under the tagline, Don't Mess with Our Kids. Those had attendance that ranged from the hundreds to the thousands.

What do they want to communicate with that slogan, Don't Mess with Our Kids?

Yeah, it's not very specific. I think maybe that's by design, to roll in people who've been activated around several disparate issues in the last few years. We're expecting the Moms for Liberty types who've built influence through anti-LGBTQ campaigns. We'll also likely see people who want to see a national abortion ban. Then there are people who believe in the QAnon Conspiracy Theory. I spoke with Matthew Taylor. He's a senior scholar at the Institute for Islamic, Christian, and Jewish Studies. He says that these narratives that inspire fear over children being abused can be dangerous.

The way that they are ratcheting up the rhetoric about the threat to children in and of itself, I think, is dangerous in the way that it creates a permission structure that says, We have to do whatever we can to stop this group because otherwise our children will suffer or die because of them.

It'll be interesting, Scott, to see how this energy that was really developed in the last four years at the local level with these school board fights and library fights, translates when it comes together nationally in these weeks before the election.

Who organized this event?

The organizers are Jenny Donnelly and Lou Angle. Both of them are connected to a network known as the New Apostolic Reformation, or NAR. The NAR is a collection of nondenominational, charismatic churches and leaders. Some of them call themselves prophets and Apostles. This network has been very closely tied in with former President Trump. Taylor, the religious scholar we heard from earlier, says that when Trump became President, he played a key role in shifting the seat of power within the religious right to emphasize this NAR network.

The last four years has in many ways completely changed the landscape of the religious right in America in the Trump era, to the point where many of the most active religious leaders in our politics right now are people that 90% of the country have never heard of.

So again, this event isn't explicitly political, but Taylor says that in 2020, there were similar gatherings that they held in DC ahead of that election, and that helped build energy for Trump. After Election Day, that energy was directed towards Stop the Steel efforts, and of course, ultimately January sixth. This time, political violence researchers don't expect another January sixth at the Capitol. But there's closer attention now to the narratives that are unifying Trump supporters and the question of where that energy will go if he loses. Is.

And Pierre Zadet Youssef. Thanks so much for being with us, Zadet.

Thank you.

You know how we always say the Federal Reserve's actions affect home mortgage rates?

Well, they do. But not always precisely.

This week when mortgage rates rose, even though the Fed cut its target last month. Npr personal finance correspondent, Laurel Walmsley, is here to explain. Hi, Laurel.

Hey, are Alicia.

So mortgage rates went up this week, even though interest rates are lower. What in the world is going on here?

That's right. The latest data from Freddie Mac showed that the average 30-year mortgage rate had increased to 6.3% this week. That's about a quarter point higher than it was two weeks ago. That's probably an unwelcome surprise to the folks who are finally coming off the sidelines to start shopping for a home. So why is this happening? It's because mortgage rates aren't tied to the Fed's interest rate, but instead they follow a different number, the yield on a 10-year treasury bond. And that went higher this week for a number of reasons.

Got it. So it's not set by the Fed? I mean, that's what I thought.

No, there's different numbers floating around. And this is not... It's influenced by the Fed, but it's not set by the Fed. And also keep in mind that the local lenders who actually give you your mortgage need to cover their costs and make a profit, so they add their own percentage on top. And the specific mortgage rate that you would get would depend on your own factors, like your credit score and the size and type of loan that you're getting.

But overall, aren't mortgage rates lower than they were recently?

Yes, and that is the big picture to take away from this still. Even with this uptick, mortgage rates are more than a full point lower than they were this time last year. And lots of people are taking advantage of that. They're refinancing their mortgages if they bought a house in the last couple of years when rates were higher. The lower rates mean they can potentially save hundreds of dollars a month.

So it sounds like mortgage rates are a moving target right now. Is there any sense of where they'll settle? That's what I really need to know. Where are they going?

You and me both. I posed that question to Lawrence Yune, the Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors. Here's what he said.

I think the new normal, maybe 6% mortgage rate, which we are very close to. If we are lucky, maybe we get to 5.5%.

Mortgage rate.

Or we could be unlucky, he said, and the rate goes back up towards 7%. This predicting is hard, even for economists. But looking around at several forecasts, many of them have rates staying above 6% through the end of this year and falling to about 5.8 next year. If you do want to buy a home, you might not want to wait to see if rates will drop, because if they do, you could always refinance to a lower rate. But if they rise, it just gets harder to afford a home.

So has this had any effect on the housing market? Like, are more people shopping for homes?

Well, it's still a little early to tell since buying a home can take months from shopping to actually closing. But there are some indications that the lower rates are shaking things a bit looser.

So like what?

Well, for instance, more people are listing their homes for sale. There are 23% more existing homes on the market than there were a year ago. And there's a lot of new homes for sale, too. That's really good news for buyers who have not had much to choose from. And home sellers tend to be home buyers as well. Those folks might be entering the market soon. And some sellers have probably been waiting for mortgage rates to drop because it's hard to give up the super low rates that many locked in during the pandemic, even if they're outgrowing their current home. And then another indicator is applications for mortgages have ticked up a bit, 8 % higher than a year ago, which also suggests that more people are preparing to buy a home.

It's fall now. School has started. Is this a hot time for home sales?

Well, definitely not as much as spring and early summer are. So it could be March before we really see a rebound get going here. Fannie Mae is predicting that home sales could be 10% higher next year, coming off of the very low levels that we've been seeing. And as I said, this all goes to show how the Fed can influence mortgage rates, but it does not set them.

That's NPR's Laura Wamsley. Thank you so very much. You're welcome.

And that's up first for Saturday, October 12th, 2024. I'm Scott Simon.

I'm Ayesha Rosco. Michael Radcliffe produced today's podcast with help from Fernando Naro, Martin Patience, and Kira Waukeen. Danny Hensel directed.

Our editors were Katherine Laidlaw, Gigi Duban, Andrew Sussman, Raphael Naam, and Matthew Sherman.

Hannah Glovna is our Technical Director with engineering support from Misha Hynes, Andy Huther, and Ted Mebe.

Evie Stone is our Senior Supervising Editor. Sarah Lucy Oliver is our Executive Producer with help this week from Julia Redpath. Jim Cain is our Deputy Managing Editor. We've been wondering.

Tomorrow on the Sunday Story, I'll talk with author Tana Hasi Coates about his new book, The Message: A Collection of Essays, Including One on the conflict in the Middle East.

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