Transcript of Bracing For Hurricane Isaias, Ukraine Pushes Russia Back, Iran War Impact On Midterms New

Mandatory evacuations are underway in parts of the Florida Panhandle. Much of the Gulf Coast is preparing for Hurricane Isaías to make landfall.

The storm has been gaining strength, so how dangerous could it be?

I'm Michelle Martin, that's Steve Inskeep, and this is Up First from NPR News. Ukraine is taking back land from Russia. Its latest offensive is named Operation Vivaldi. It's become almost impossible to survive on the front line, so the movement is built around drones and ground Also, President Trump said in writing that he will not attack Iran at all before the midterms.

He explicitly linked his decisions about the unpopular war to an election where his party is on the defensive. How, if at all, can Republicans use that promise? Stay with us, we've got the news you need to start your day. As soon as tonight, people along the Gulf Coast find out how their hurricane preparations hold up.

That's because Hurricane Isaías Grace is forecast to make landfall on that coast. The first hurricane of the season is south of Mobile, Alabama, with several states in its possible path.

NPR's Debbie Elliott is waiting in Crestview, which is in the Florida Panhandle. Debbie, good morning.

Morning.

What's the storm doing now?

You know, it's been rapidly getting stronger because of those very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico over the last couple of days, and forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are saying this could be a very dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall, potentially with winds topping 100 an hour, life-threatening storm surge somewhere between 5 and 7 feet. It's also going to dump a lot of rain, up to 15 inches in some places. The cone of possibility right now for landfall seems to be narrowing in right along the Alabama-Florida state line. But, you know, impacts are going to be possible all the way from Louisiana over to the Big Bend area of Florida.

How are people preparing in that cone?

Well, local officials have ordered some evacuations in coastal communities here in the Florida Panhandle, and shelters have been opened. Alabama Alabama ordered tourists to leave the beaches ahead of the storm. Highways in and out of the region were very busy yesterday with both people leaving and emergency crews, you know, getting ready to come to the coast. I passed several National Guard convoys, some search and rescue boats that were coming up from South Florida, lots of those big bucket trucks that they use to repair power lines. You know, states typically prestage all kinds of emergency equipment— the helicopters, generators, high-water vehicles that they'll use for rescues if needed. Also, supplies like food and water that can be distributed, you know, expecting prolonged power outages. Governor Ron DeSantis in Florida urged people to stay vigilant.

Please be on the lookout. Even if you're outside the cone, you could still have tornado risks. And so I would just say over these next couple days, just be very attuned to the surroundings and the weather. Debbie, I just want to note the timing. Hurricanes are traditionally a late summer thing. This is pretty late for the first hurricane of the season.

This is very late to get the very first hurricane of a season. We thought we had escaped the worst this year because of the prominent El Niño weather pattern that's going on that typically hinders development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. But here we are now, schools and government offices closing. A lot of fall festivals had to be canceled, like the National Shrimp Festival in Gulf Shores, Alabama. That's a big economic blow. Also, a good bit of the offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf has been curtailed. As for residents, folks along People along the coast do know the drill— sandbagging, boarding up the windows or putting down the hurricane shutters, getting boats to safe harbor or high land. We're seeing a lot of that. Hannah Atkins made a last-minute run to Lowe's just north of Pensacola yesterday with her 3 young children.

We've definitely got gas for the generator. We've put all our patio furniture up, weighted it down. I just came into Lowe's to get stuff to tie down everything with our chicken coop. So it doesn't blow away. But yeah, we've gotten food in the car already, just picked it up from Publix, and gonna go home and not waste any more gas on the road.

Definitely don't want the chickens blowing around. So people will be hunkering down in earnest today.

Okay, NPR's Debbie Elliott, be safe.

Thanks so much, Steve.

Ukraine has launched a new military offensive against Russian invaders, deploying the latest technology and an ironic name.

The offensive is named after a classical composer, and it's designed to endure on a battlefield where human beings can hardly survive. It uses both drones and robots.

NPR's Joanna Kakissis is following this from Kyiv. Hi, Joanna.

Hey, Steve.

How does this offensive work?

So, uh, this is part of a complex counteroffensive near the eastern city of Lyman. Ukraine's 3rd Army planned it for months. The military says its soldiers used electronic warfare and aerial drones to blind Russian reconnaissance, and then they destroyed Russian firepower and supply routes. And then after that, they sent in land robots, which are these unmanned ground vehicles that look like small trucks, very little— like little trucks— to weaken Russian positions. And then assault groups went in to clear those positions. Now, the Ukrainians say they took back roughly 68 square miles, and that's about 3 times the size of Manhattan.

Okay, sounds impressive, although we should note there have been offensives in counteroffensives before, and the lines maybe don't move ultimately that much. Is this operation still underway?

Well, yes, it is. The commander of the 3rd Army Corps, Andriy Biletsky, said last month that the counteroffensive is called Operation Vivaldi. It's a reference to the Italian composer's famous violin concertos of the 4 seasons, and you've probably heard it. Bum bum bum bum ba da dum. You know it. Yeah, many people know it. And Biletsky says this counteroffensive is just in its first season. And now in this video by the 3rd Army Corps, a soldier who uses the call sign Jackson, as is customary in the Ukrainian military. He says they continue to destroy Russian troops there. He's saying as soon as they appear on our land, we catch up to them very quickly and we neutralize them.

What makes this movement important?

Well, it's happening in the Donbas region, which Russia has been fighting since 2014 to take from Ukraine. Russia occupies much of the region but is pressing for Ukraine to give up the rest of it as part of any peace deal. Ukraine has refused. Operation Vuhledar shows that a Russian sweep of Donbas is not inevitable and that the Ukrainians can make breakthroughs on a battlefield that is just saturated with drones.

Joanna, I just want to remember that Russian missiles and drones continue flying over that front line and, and continue hitting Ukrainian cities.

Yeah, that's right. Just yesterday, there was just this horrific strike on a public bus in Kramatorsk. This is one of 2 fortress cities in the Donbas that the Ukrainians still control. The Russians dropped guided aerial bombs on the city, hitting the And at least 30 people were killed and dozens more were injured, according to local authorities.

How are people managing those continued attacks on civilians?

Well, you know, some are leaving cities that are under attack, and that includes Kyiv, where I live. And Ukrainian authorities say Russian strikes are also destroying energy and water facilities, causing outages and shortages. The Ukrainians say it's part of a wider campaign by Russia to make Ukrainian cities unlivable.

Okay. NPR's Joanna Kakissis in Kyiv, thanks for the update.

You're welcome.

President Trump made an announcement about the war in Iran on social media.

He explicitly linked the unpopular war to the midterm elections. And this is a quote: We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd, unquote. Okay, why do that? Apparently, to refute reports that the White House is considering airstrikes against Iran before Election Day.

Okay, so the president is making this explicit connection between his decisions on a war involving the United States and his political fortunes at home. So let's bring in an expert on politics, NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Good morning.

Hey there, Steve.

Okay, what is notable about this post?

I mean, it's a little surprising that any president at war would want to tip their hand in either direction and make any kind of declarative promise pledging not to strike You know, if we asked at the Pentagon or White House, are you going to strike before the election? We'd be chided for asking such a silly question.

Yes.

Because they're not going to tell us in the media, right? But Trump doing this is a very clear sign that he knows this war has been bad for his party politically ahead of these midterms. The reality is more strikes and further engagement, it's a tough sell for an American audience, including for many in Trump's base. I mean, Trump explicitly promised to not get into foreign entanglements. He even said in his inaugural that his presidency might be measured by the wars he didn't get into. You know, prolonged unpopular wars we know can be and have been dangerous for any president and his party. Think about Iraq, Vietnam, Korea. And all of that's heightened even more in October of an election year when the president's already unpopular. The cost of living and gas prices are putting Republicans on their back foot across the country.

Yeah. So I'm thinking this through. The president says, don't worry about the war. I'm not going to remind you about the war until you vote for my party. And then maybe I'll resume the war after I get your vote. I mean, that seems to be the message here. But I was just out in I've been interviewing voters in the last few days, Domenico. They seem to be aware that there is a war on.

You know, this war is very unpopular if you look at public opinion. A recent AP-NORC poll, for example, found that 7 in 10 disapprove of how Trump is handling the war, and they say the war has not been worth fighting. Trump argues that it is worth it because he doesn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon, though his rationale for this war certainly shifted quite a bit from the beginning of it. And it's hard to believe that this has been going on since February, much longer than promised. And historically in this country, history, wars that have dragged on have become major political problems for presidents.

I guess we should note also the president has said he is thinking the Iranians will be willing to settle with him after the midterms. So maybe he's hoping not to have to strike at all. But doesn't he face a historic problem here in terms of the popularity of this thing?

Yeah, he is. I mean, you know, I wrote about this back in March, a few weeks after the war in Iran started, right after Trump had declared, quote, we won. Back then, there had been no real rally around the flag effect, as it's known in polling, when the country unifies and a president benefits, like when a country's attacked and the country feels compelled to respond. But this was a war of choice, and Americans have been war-weary from decades in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. When all this started, Trump's approval rating was sitting at 48% in an average of the polls. Now it's down to 37%. You know, it's a similar drop to what we saw, frankly, for President Biden after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and he never really recovered, especially as he was also dealing with a difficult economy.

So what does this mean for the elections that are, that are underway in some places?

Yeah, it's not great. for Trump and the Republican Party. That's why you've seen several Republicans distancing themselves from the war and the president's policies in recent weeks. Most Republicans I talked to concede that they're probably going to lose the House majority, and they're trying to hang on to a majority in the Senate, having to be on defense in a lot of red states, which they never thought would be the case when this cycle started.

It's just amazing to think about an election that could be decided in Kansas or Iowa or Texas.

Exactly.

Domenico, thanks so much.

You're welcome.

That's NPR's Domenico Montanaro. As we finish today, we'll remind you the NPR network needs you to help fund the journalism that is freely available to all and protect your right to know. If you've already given, thank you. And there is still time to join us today at donate.npr.org. And that's Up First for this Friday, October 9th. I'm Steve Inskeep. And I'm Michelle Martin.

Today's episode of Up First was edited by Suzannah Capilouto, Tina Craya, Meghan Pratt, Mohammed Elbardisi, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziad Butch and Mia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott. Our technical director is Carly Strange. And our executive producer is Jay Shaler. We hope you'll join us again on Monday.