Transcript of Democrats Lead In Midterm Polls, Yemen War Front, Paramount-Warner Bros. Merger

It's beautiful here.

Is it really?

We saw moose. Oh, really?

Like, how close did you get?

Really close by accident because we were on, like, these rural roads with no reception. And then we're like, why are these guys in the middle of the street when there's no people here? And there was 2 moose.

Not mooses?

No.

Oh, that's what I put on the few strands of hair I have left.

Mooses.

Polls suggest Democrats are ahead with just 4 weeks left before the midterm elections.

Republicans are spending money on races they did not expect to be competitive. So what's behind the Democratic momentum, and can they keep it?

I'm Leila Faldon, that's A. Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. Houthis took over new areas of Yemen last month and consolidated control of an oil shipping route. Now Saudi Arabia is pushing back. Nearly 200,000 people have been displaced by weeks of fighting.

And Paramount closes its mega merger with Warner Bros. this morning. That puts HBO, CNN, and CBS under one company called Skydance. What changes for viewers and workers? Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

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4 weeks from today will be Election Day.

And a series of new polls are showing Democrats with a decided advantage in the midterms. But how much stock should we put into them? And is there something else we should be paying attention to?

To help with that, who better than NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro? Good morning, Domenico.

Good morning, Leila.

Okay, so lots of polls flying around, and all of them seem to show Democrats doing well with voters. Just how confident should Democrats Right.

Well, polls are only one factor in midterms. You have to consider history, the national environment, the political structure, money, and polling. And sometimes they're all related. And most of those right now are favoring Democrats. And remember, though, polls aren't predictive. They tell us what's happening now, or rather during the dates when they were conducted with that particular sample and that polling outfit's way of weighting. You know, people still have to vote. These aren't prediction markets. And the prediction markets are really just trying to read the polls, where the money is heading and what the news narratives are. But what is clear, though, is that the needle has moved in Democrats' direction over the last several months, especially in the Senate. And that's about all that really should be taken away right now, big picture.

So you say the needle has moved in Democrats' direction. What does that mean for the campaign and what might happen?

Yeah, I mean, no crystal ball here, but we can come up with some informed reasons for what might happen. First, we've seen the most movement in the Senate with lots of races moving in Democrats' direction. And that's because of what looked to be tight races in red states. So the Senate is It is within reach now for Democrats, which I can hardly believe I'm even saying that because it was highly unlikely at the beginning of this cycle. But it's not so far afield to say that Democrats are the clear favorites to win the House.

Okay, why is that?

Well, I mean, you start with history and the national mood. In 18 of the 20 midterm elections since World War II, the president's party has lost House seats, on average about 26 seats. And it's even worse when the president is unpopular, as President Trump is now. I mean, just a 37% approval rating, tied for the worst pre-midterm approval rating in the last half century with George W. Bush back in 2006. Back then, Democrats won the House and the Senate. Think about how people feel right now about the economy and the war in Iran. Those are both intertwined, as we know. And then think about how narrow House Republicans' majority is. It's only a few seats in the House. Democrats only need things to tip slightly in their direction for them to win. And the national mood certainly stacked against President Trump and the Republican Party. So Democrats have a clear advantage in the House, but there are some question marks about really how big those gains could be.

Why the question marks?

Well, I mean, there are a few things. The Democratic Party is unpopular. Now, that might matter less in a midterm, given that those are low-turnout affairs. Usually the most fired up are the ones who turn out to vote, and anger is a real motivator. The intensity of opposition against Trump is just super high right now. The percentage of people in our last NPR/PBS News/Marist poll who said they strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing is 53%. That's the highest it's ever been. But the unpopularity of the party could still dampen enthusiasm for some of those voters who should lean in Democrats' direction. More importantly, for why these gains might be limited is the structure. I mean, 25 of the 31 seats that Democrats are targeting are in places that Trump won in 2024. And as we know, in this hyper-partisan era, it's just hard to go into places like that and win in big numbers. You know, plus Republicans were already somewhat insulated because of a landscape that favored them because not just recent redistricting, but decades of it. That said, things do tend to tip in one direction in the end in midterms.

And what about the Senate? Lots of polling has come out showing Democrats competitive or leading in some pretty surprising places like Texas, Alaska, even Kansas.

Yeah, I mean, no doubt about it. I mean, Republicans are moving money out of a purple state like North Carolina and into red states like Kansas when they've already been spending a ton in Texas. And that's not what Republicans thought they'd be having to spend money on at the beginning of this election cycle. So Democrats have a shot now at winning the Senate, but they have to win in lots of places that they haven't had a long history of success in. You know, does that mean that that's what's going to happen? No, but if you talk to operatives in both parties, Democrats certainly have the wind at their backs right now, it seems.

NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro, thank you, Domenico.

You got it.

Saudi Arabia and its allied forces in Yemen say they've recaptured a port city from the Houthis that lies on a key oil shipping It's part of a new Saudi offensive against the Iran-backed Houthis, who gained ground in Yemen just weeks ago and captured territory along the Red Sea.

NPR's Aya Batrawy is in Dubai. So tell us, so what exactly did Saudi Arabia do?

Yeah, so the Saudi Air Force says 100 fighter jets carried out this new offensive called Operation Dawn of Yemen yesterday, striking hundreds of targets. And then by nightfall, Saudi-backed forces in Yemen said that they had entered the Red Sea the port city of Mokka and pushed the Houthis out. The Houthis, however, deny any loss of territory. Now, this offensive comes around 3 weeks after the Houthis had swept into southwestern Yemen, capturing Mokka and islands in Bab el-Mandeb. That is the key Red Sea shipping route that Saudi Arabia had been using to export its oil since the Strait of Hormuz to the east is blocked by Iran. Now, the Houthis have been targeting Saudi tankers in Bab el-Mandeb. They say that is in response to Saudi Arabia's blockade of Houthi areas and Houthi ports. But the Saudis say their blockade is to prevent Iran from transferring weapons to the Houthis. Now, this new Saudi offensive is basically an attempt to reverse the loss of territory in Yemen and regain that territory along the strait.

That port city, Mokka, that you mentioned, what kind of shape is it in?

So most residents had fled Mokka when the Houthis swept into the city last month, and many of its hospitals had immediately shut down. And the UN says at least 180,000 people have been displaced overall in Yemen by this recent fighting. Now, we have spoken to aid workers who say women are giving birth in the open and people are sleeping under trees. And NPR reached several Yemenis in the governorate of Taiz, which Mokka is a part of. One man confirmed to us yesterday that he fled an area that had been taken by the Houthis just yesterday that lies along a main road linking 2 Yemeni government strongholds. That's the city of Taiz and Aden to the south. They are now cut off from one another. I want you to have a listen to what a resident in Taiz city, Osama al-Sarahi, told NPR last night. So he says the Houthis have encircled the city of Taiz and that people can't flee because the road is now cut off. And he says a number of civilians were killed on the outskirts of the city by Houthi forces as they tried to advance. And he says Taiz is now facing a crisis of aid and fuel because it all came from Aden.

So while you're seeing the Saudi-led forces make gains in Mokka, you're seeing the Houthis make gains around Taiz.

Yeah, we're also hearing about the Houthis who have been attacking Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones.

Yeah, so the Houthis say that they have hit several Saudi Aramco oil sites in the past few days. We don't have confirmation of that, and Saudi Arabia is not commenting on specific attacks. The Houthis are, however, also targeting air bases in Saudi Arabia and airports, and the kingdom did say that Riyadh Airport was among 2 airports that were hit last night in Saudi Arabia. Now, to defend against these attacks, Saudi Arabia is getting some support from Britain and France. Yesterday, top ministers from Pakistan and Turkey also met in Saudi Arabia, and they confirmed that they're providing rapid military support now to the kingdom them as part of the Mecca Agreement. That's the new defense pact that was signed by the 3 countries over the summer. And this pact really stems from President Trump's reluctance to get directly involved in another war in the Gulf. The U.S. has not agreed to Saudi Arabia's request for refueling support, but it is sharing intel on the Houthis.

That's NPR's Aya Batrawy in Dubai. Thank you very much.

Thanks, Aya.

A new era in Hollywood has now begun. Paramount Skydance closed its long-anticipated and, for some, long-feared takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery this morning.

The $111 billion merger faced public protests but ultimately passed legal and regulatory challenges in the U.S. and in Europe.

NPR's Manalita El Barco joins us now from Los Angeles. Manalita, it is going to be one big, massive company. Who's in charge? What's in this company?

Yeah. So David Ellison will control this new media empire with help from his billionaire father, Larry Ellison, and investors from the Middle East. Their company, Skydance, combines 2 legendary film studios, both more than 100 years old, Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros. Pictures. Ellison also gets their streaming services like Paramount+ and HBO Max. He gets MTV, Comedy Central, the Food Network, and 2 huge news outlets, CNN and CBS News. Ellison has defended the merger from critics worried about him having too much power over the media. This is Ellison on CNBC in March after outbidding Netflix.

This deal is basically, you know, it's pro-competitive, it's pro-consumer, it's good for the overall creative economy. We now have a library of 15,000 films, everything from Harry Potter to the DC Universe, Mission: Impossible, Top Gun, The Godfather under one roof.

And that's not to mention popular TV shows the companies distribute, like Ted Lasso, The Daily Show, the Star Trek franchise, and all those Looney Tunes cartoons.

Now, when companies merge like this, sometimes changes occur. Mandalit, what are some of those changes expected with this new company?

Yeah, well, Ellison already announced his co-CEO will be Ynon Kreiz, the former head of Mattel. But Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy, the duo that headed Warner Bros. Pictures, are now out of the picture. Just last year at the Oscars, they celebrated their films Sinners and One Battle After Another. You know, the Writers Guild of America and 12 state attorneys general tried unsuccessfully to block this merger. And as part of the settlement, Ellison agreed that the combined studios will make 30 films a year for the next few years. But critics remain skeptical of that.

What have you heard, though, about changes in the TV news networks? You mentioned CNN and CBS. So what do you hear about changes that maybe Skydance might make?

Well, there's been a lot of worry about what might happen to CNN with the Ellisons being allies to President Trump. I spoke to Jessica Gonzalez. She's the co-CEO of the nonprofit media advocacy organization Free Press. That's not to be confused with the media company Free Press founded by Barry Weiss, the head of CBS News. Well, Gonzalez's group helped organize the Block the Merger Coalition.

We're concerned about the Ellisons corrupting CNN. We're concerned about what the Ellisons have already done since taking over Paramount and CBS. They are willing to use their money and power to censor the news, to tear down stories that they or the president don't like. We deserve better than billionaire oligarchs controlling our media system.

Now, to get the deal passed, Ellison promised to set up an independent oversight board to protect CNN from political interference. Skydance says the current head of CNN, Mark Thompson, will remain. Barry Weiss will continue to head CBS News.

Okay, so what about people that watch these films and TV shows that are going to be under this big umbrella and the people who work on all these projects?

Well, people against the deal predict that viewers could soon have to pay more for streaming services, and they could have fewer choices, and they say layoffs are inevitable. Ellison comes into this with a huge amount of debt, and for now, workers at both companies will be starting the day a bit unsure about their futures at Skydance.

That's NPR's Mandalit del Barco, who covers the media industry for us from Los Angeles. Mandalit, thanks.

Thank you.

And that's Up First for Tuesday, October 6th. I'm Amy Martinez.

And I'm Leila Fawad. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Megan Pratt, Tina Craya, Russell Lewis, Mohammad Dadbardisi, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziad Baj and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hynes and Stacy Abbott. Our technical director is Carly Strange, and our supervising senior producer This week on Short Wave, the internet is obsessed with inflammation.

And yeah, it is true. Inflammation Inflammation is at the heart of nearly every disease in the body. But it's also— The body's natural response to danger.

So who really needs to be worried about it? Find out on Short Wave, the science podcast from NPR.

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