This episode covers the Democratic win in Mississippi's Senate race, which many did not expect given how close the contest was, and what it may signal for the South. Host Aaron Parnas speaks with Errin Haines and Jennifer Palmieri, who spent time campaigning across the region for the Long Play series.
They discuss why national Democrats have historically underinvested in Southern states, the role of grassroots organizing and candidate quality, and whether the old red and blue state labels still hold. The guests also argue that Southern primaries could shape the 2028 Democratic nomination.
Listeners will hear their reasoning on what it takes to make a state competitive.
In this episode Aaron Parnas, Errin Haines, Jennifer Palmieri
This episode's transcript on Mississippi's Senate race and the South was made with HappyScribe technology built to transcribe audio to text.
Ads in this audio differ from the text. Tap the sentence you're hearing to follow along.
Synced: the text now follows the audio.
We have breaking news at this hour. It's official: Mississippi has turned blue. Scott Caloum will be the next United States Senator from Mississippi. This is a monumental victory for so many people. For Scott Caloum, the first Black man to be representing Mississippi in the United States Senate in more than a century. More than a century. Scott Caloum has defeated Cindy Heitzschmidt. This is a result that many people had expected, given the fact that over the past several days, ever since Election Day, his vote tally steadily increased.
But given how close it was, no one was—no one was even ready or prepared to call it until now. And I spoke with Jennifer Palmieri and Aaron Haynes about this victory and what it really means for the South, because we have a new South right now in the United States of America. This is a huge victory for Scott Caloum and for Democrats. I'm going to tell you about that momentarily, so if you can, make sure to subscribe, support this work, like, comment, share.
The more you do, the more people see. Scott Caloum's victory was one that many pundits did not expect. Mississippi is a state that Donald Trump won by double digits. Cindy Heitzschmidt didn't even really run a campaign, the Republican, thinking that she could just walk in and take the seat. And she nearly did. And that right there tells you how deep red sometimes this state is, right? Cindy Heitzschmidt is not a good candidate, historically hasn't really done much for the people of Mississippi, just had an R next to her name, and she nearly won this race.
Scott Caloum is going to end up winning by under 1 percentage point. A very, very close race. But what we are seeing right now is that this is really a sign of things to come, specifically around the future of the Democratic Party and the future of the country writ large. There is going to be serious conversations about what this means for the South and whether Democrats should invest in the South more. States like Texas, James Tallarica—Tallarica won by 12 points.
12 points in the state of Texas. Gina Inahosa won by nearly double digits. Democrats came within 2 points of flipping Louisiana Senate seats, when no one thought was even possible. Georgia, John Ossoff won by nearly 20 points and just elected their first Black governor, the first Black female governor in United States history, in Keishaland's bottoms. Doug Jones in Alabama was a senator before and nearly beat Tommy Tuberville. That race ended up just within about, I believe, 5 or 6 points. The future of the country runs through the South.
And that's what I spoke to with Aaron Haynes and Jennifer Palmieri about this. I want you to listen to this conversation and let me know what you think. But today is a new day in Mississippi. Scott Caloum is the United States Senator, and here is my conversation with Jennifer and Aaron. Super excited today to be joined by Aaron Haynes and Jennifer Palmieri. I am so excited to have this conversation because you guys have been all across the South this election cycle, just in Mississippi. Aaron, I want to start with you. When you spoke to folks on the ground in Mississippi, what have they been saying about a possible Scott Caloum senatorship?
What does that mean to them?
Listen, I think it means a new Mississippi, right, that a lot of people have been thinking about. They've been trying to manifest for years, and they've, frankly, have been putting in a lot of hard work to get to this point. So for them, it would—it would—it would be that hard work paying off. It would mean not just a chance to make history, but a chance to chart a different future for this state. I mean, it has such a complicated and, frankly, racist history that has been hanging over it for so long. So much of that, I think, is associated with the voter suppression that we saw in the Jim Crow era and that loomed large over the state after that.
But what does it mean for voters to be empowered, for voters to be engaged, and for voters to be standing up and to produce a different outcome and to really chart a new direction for this state? And in the 250th anniversary of this country's birthday, right, for the South to again push us forward in terms of Democratic progress that brings more people into this experiment that we call America.
And Jennifer, I got to ask you because you served on Secretary Clinton's campaign. You were her—you were with her on the road. Back in 2016, everyone said, "We have to look at the Blue Wall," right? States like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania. The conversation was never around the South: Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana. But that is changing, right?
Yeah. Oh, yeah. I mean, I—so I was born in Mississippi. I was born on the Gulf Coast. And so I have—and also I was sort of raised in the Bill Clinton White House, right, which meant that you talk to Southerners because, you know, that's where he came from. And it's—what had always disturbed me is that, you know, further along in politics, it's all about analytics. And I understand this because you got to make hard decisions about money, and there's a limited amount, and it's hard-earned, and it's people's cash, and you want to be—you know, you want to use it in the best possible way.
So I would always hear things like, "Well, they're never going to vote for us anyway, so we shouldn't talk to them." So that, you know, they're not going to vote for us anyway, so we don't need to go to those states. And it's like, well, they're the poorest states in the country. 60 percent of Black voters live—60 percent of Black Americans live in the South, sort of the SEC region. And just there's a—you know, there's also a sort of policy matter for why you want to be here. Because imagine if the South had—if each—if Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia all had multiple Democratic Congresspeople, imagine what the coalition would be like for some pretty bold programs, right, to get—to pretty big problems to get solved if that's the kind of delegations you had here.
And I think that, you know, part of it is regionalism.
Yeah.
Most Democratic people who work in politics are not from the South. There's definitely racism involved as well. You know, Charles Taylor, who's the NAACP head of the Mississippi Conference, who comes from national politics, you know, he certainly has sent that—sent that. And it's sort of like Mississippi, there was support at the end, but they sort of had to prove, "We can do this, see?" And I think now it will be a lot easier to raise money for races in the South.
Louisiana and Mississippi both have legislative and governor's races next year. And I think that—and it just is so—you know, Aaron talked about how people in Mississippi feel about this. I think Scott Caloum is going to be—he's not just going to be a senator, you know, he's just going to be a leader for this state and, you know, and bringing a lot of attention to it. And it already feels different. People have a sense of possibility that just as someone who lived some growing-up years here has always really—there's a lot of obstacles in Mississippi, and the lack of a sense of possibility has really held people down.
And, you know, this is just one man, just one race, but it feels like that's kind of lifting, not just here but across the Deep South.
Well, both of you guys are launching a big show called The Long Play Multi-Part Series, talking about this. Aaron, I got to ask you, you guys were first in Texas, then in Mississippi. Why did you choose those states in that order? And where are you going next?
Yeah, I mean, so this is actually the second season of the show. In the first season, we went to six states in the South. We went to Georgia. We went to South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas. We went to all of these different places to hear and talk to voters, to talk to candidates, to see what was possible and also to see what was on their minds that might, you know, cause them to create the kind of coalition that could produce a winning outcome in the South. And so in state after state after state after state, we were in Texas on election night where we've been asking everybody every cycle asked the question, "Is this going to be the year that Texas turns blue?"
It happened. And it happened because of a lot of the issues that we heard about from people on the ground in Texas in the first season. And then when we went back, they were so upset about the affordability crisis, the corruption, right, that was looming large over that race with candidates like, you know, Attorney General Ken Paxton and outgoing governor now, Greg Abbott. There were those allegations of corruption and also how that corruption—how the focus on that corruption instead of the issues that were affecting everyday Texans, the price of gas, the price of groceries.
"Can I buy a house?" or "Can I sell my house?" "Can I keep my house?" Like, these were very real issues for people that were animating them, galvanizing them to make the different choices that they made. And James Tallarica for Senate and Gina Inahosa, you know, making, you know, this historic win as the first Latina governor in the state. Immigration was another issue in Texas. I mean, there were two shootings, one fatal, in Texas in this midterm cycle. So many people, especially Latino and Latina voters, were saying, "Hey, this is not what I voted for. I may have supported Trump just two years ago, but, like, this actually isn't what I want.
And I'm voting for my safety. I'm voting for my community." In so many cases, we saw that. And so, you know, with Mississippi, again, it was about, you know, is this going to be—can Mississippi finally make a different choice? Is one-party rule going to continue to be just this outcome that felt so fixed in this state for so long, knowing how people were suffering in Mississippi? I mean, affordability has been a top issue for Mississippi for a long time.
Sure.
And so what does it mean, you know, for folks to imagine how things can be different here? And to Jen's point, if this can happen in Mississippi, places across the South are like, "This can happen anywhere." We, too, can build power to create the kind of outcomes that can change people's lives in a very real way.
So let's look ahead. Jennifer, if you were advising a 2028 candidate, because the South is in play, South Carolina is the first state on the Democratic primary calendar, what would you be telling them right now?
The South is going to decide who the Democratic presidential nominee is because it's not just there's South Carolina is the first, as you note. There are six states that happen before Super Tuesday. There are two Southern states, Mississippi and Virginia, which still counts as a Southern state, particularly the southern part of that state.
Yes. Yeah.
And then you're going to go into Super Tuesday. And, you know, Super Tuesday is always dominated by a large number of Southern states. So the, you know, when this is—so it's going to start in the South, and it's likely the process, and it's likely to end in the South. And so the other thing that I think is great for Democratic presidential candidates and why you want to spend time in the South is that it really—Southern voters, Southern Democratic voters are mostly Black voters.
You know, Aaron reminds me all the time how pragmatic they are, which means they need to know that you have a way to win. And so that they're going to really test that. But I think some of the reason I think some of our best Democratic candidates come from red states, that doesn't mean they need to be conservative. It means that they have a—that they do a good job at making their argument across ideological spectrums because they have good solutions that are going to solve people's problems and people's lives.
So I think as much time—and also there's just a lot of excitement here in the South now that you can tap into. That means, I think, in the general election, first of all, going forward, once we get to 2032, with all the population changes and census changes, you're going to have to win multiple states in the Southeast in order to win to get to 270. But I think that there are states here that are—that can be battlegrounds for to get to 270, not just to win the nomination. So it is—it's also—it's just I don't know who the Democratic nominee is, but I know that person is going to be really strong and have proven their metal.
And the South is a very good place to sharpen your skills.
Aaron, I got to ask you because I find it, like, when Jennifer says "red state," "blue state," and people throw those adjectives out to describe various states, I personally, after this election cycle, don't think there is such a thing as a red state or a blue state anymore. I would argue that it's actually just candidate-specific rather than party-specific, right? Texas right now has one statewide Republican elected. It has a Democratic House. Pretty crazy stuff. But Texas technically, by definition, isn't a red state anymore.
Right.
I guess moving forward, how should candidates operate in the South if they have, say, a D next to their name but they're running in a traditionally R-plus 30 district, for example?
Yeah. I mean, listen, we—Jen and I had a chance to see Secretary Pete Buttigieg when he was in Mississippi campaigning for Scott Caloum. And what he said to us and what he said to that audience is, you know, there's no state that is just permanently red. And I think that that is how, you know, if you're going to have the imagination for something to be different, right? And let's be honest, we're talking since, you know, the past 50 or 60 years, these states haven't been red forever, right? And places haven't been blue forever. It doesn't happen until it does. My home state of Georgia, you know, shocked the nation in 2020.
I'm old enough to remember when Georgia was, you know, a foregone conclusion until it wasn't because of the efforts of so many organizers, right? Frankly, when the establishment, the Democratic Party, said, "Oh, the South's not worth investing in. We already know how it's going to go down there." But no, these grassroots groups, even in places like Florida, right, where you had David Jolly and Angie Nixon come up short for governor and Senate, they came close, right? And so that means that they might have lost the battle, but they still got to fight the war. And they're going to keep fighting. They've proven what is possible with a little bit more effort, with a little bit more investment, with a little bit more support of infrastructure, what is possible.
And so I do think, you know, for candidates, you put up candidate quality absolutely matters, right? But, like, for the candidate to believe, for the state party to believe, that has to happen in addition to, you know, the voters believing. You know, electability is about who we elect. It's not about the package that somebody, you know, that we're used to somebody coming in. It's not the outcome that we're used to. It is about convincing people of what is possible. And so candidates that are able to do that are candidates that can win.
I think that's a good point. Jennifer Palmieri, Aaron Haines, thanks so much for the time. And I—and if you guys haven't, make sure to go watch their new—their second season of their show about the South. Long play. It's super good. Highly recommend. Thank you guys so much.
Thanks.
Thanks, Aaron.
They're surging right now. And thanks to you. Thank you for watching this video. Thank you for sharing our content. Make sure to hit that subscribe button. We're on the road to a million subscribers. Like, comment, share, get the word out. Thank you so much again.
Aaron Parnas reports on breaking news of Democrats flipping Mississippi, including an exclusive interview with Errin Haines and Jennifer Palmieri from the podcast Long Play, to discuss what they are seeing in the South post-midterms, what they think could come next in 2028, and much more!
------------------------------
Substack: https://aaronparnas.substack.com/
X: https://twitter.com/AaronParnas
Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@aaronparnas6?lang=en
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/aaronparnas/?hl=en
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aaron.parnas/
Threads: https://www.threads.net/@aaronparnas?hl=en