Transcript of NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The East | with Zach Lowe and Joe House

This is the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. Make every NFL week more rewarding with FanDuel Rewards Club. You heard me. Just bet like you normally would, earn points on eligible settled bets, win or lose. Keep collecting points, level up, and unlock bigger rewards. So keep an eye on your Rewards Club progress and see what you can unlock. This is your most rewarding season ever, and it's with FanDuel. 21+ select states or 18+ DC or Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER, call 888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. The Bill Simmons Podcast, brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where we put up part 1 of this episode, the annual NBA Over/Unders Podcast. We did the West. Joe House was involved. Zach Lowe, he was involved as well. We took a break. Zach Lowe made chicken for his daughter. Uh, I don't know what House did. House just disappeared for a while and came back. I don't even wanna speculate.

Caffeine.

Oh, is that what it was? Wardrobe change.

Stimulants.

So we started with the West with part 1, which I was way less excited about than the East. The East includes the Boston Celtics, my favorite team, the New York Knicks, the champions of the world, Joe House's Wizards. Yeah. Which perennially when we do this, they're always the last team.

Goddamn it.

In the over-unders because they always have the worst over-under and they're stupid, whatever the division is.

Southeast flags fly forever.

We're gonna start with the champs, the Knicks. Over-under is 51.5 on FanDuel. Division +180, conference +270, title 10-to-1, 1 seed +360.

Can— wait, can I, can I stop you for one second?

Yeah.

I just want to get comfortable. It's a little— still a little warm in here. I just want to make sure that, that I'm ready for the— I mean, I want to settle in for the East. We're going to be here for a while. Let me get comfortable. Just for once.

Oh boy. Oh boy. Let's keep it PG-13 here, please.

Oh, oh my God.

Okay.

Wow.

I

mean, I thought you were going to break out the eat a fat big dick, beat a big fat dick. They haven't said that to me yet.

They haven't said it to me. I'm waiting on that one.

I was so excited. I thought you had a sweatshirt ready. If

we're going to

do, if we're going to do these, a Trae Young t-shirt jersey. That's coming. I have that

Listen, I was on a JetBlue flight on Saturday watching Celts-Sixers preseason. Pretty sure I was the only one on the plane with that one dialed up.

Which one?

The Celtics-Sixers preseason game on Saturday night.

Yeah.

Multiple moments where I was like, man, Paul George just looks great. He's moving so well.

Hugo, man. 4 for 4 from 3, baby.

Yeah. Thank God we didn't trade Hugo. Then Tatum's out there with Paul George together, and I'm just like, man, look at those 2, how well they're moving together. All right, the Knicks.

Let's do it.

51.5. Last year they were 53-29 and went 16-3 in the playoffs. Last 3 years they were 53, 51, and 50. Before I get to the big question, uh, the year after the life-changing title for a fan base, which doesn't happen very often, 2005 Red Sox lost the ALDS. 2017 Cubs lost the NLCS. 2017 Cavs lost in 5 in the finals and should have lost in 4, but, uh, Game 4 is still one of the most suspiciously officiated games of this, of this century. And then the 1995 Rangers lost in round 2. There was a lockout. So that's recent history of life-changing titles. Usually the team doesn't win again. Uh, first team champ sack logo, one of 3 ways. They jump a level and become scarier. That was the '91 Bulls. They— the title took so much out of them, they're a little more banged up the next year. I think that might be like the 2009 Celtics. Or they have the disease of more. Everyone sacrificed for the title. Guys put their egos aside. A selflessness permeated the group. Everyone elevated each other, gave up stats, gave up numbers, gave up things. And then the next year happens and everybody goes, what about me?

What about my minutes? What about my shots? What about my extension? If you had to guess one of those 3 things for the Knicks, what would you guess, Zach Lowe?

I'm going D, none of the above. They're just gonna be just fine. Like close, I guess the closest would be one. where they go up a level, but I don't really see them going up a level and they can't go up a level from what they did in the playoffs. But I don't think despite all the extension stuff, I, I think all those guys are pros. I think they'll be fine and they'll play professionally. And I don't see any kind, I don't remember what scenario number 2 was. The hangover, they get worse.

A little more banged up. Like they, it took a lot outta them physically.

Oh, that one. I mean, they, they got outta the playoffs pretty unscathed. Yeah. They didn't have to play that many games. A lot of their games were blowouts. Like, so I'm gonna go closest to A, but really D, like this team's just gonna to be fine.

House?

I totally agree. I think that, I mean, they're a tiny bit worse and we'll talk about the rosters and so forth, but they're, they're, this is a built for the postseason basketball team. There may yet be a move for them to fortify the front court 'cause I'm not sure how much they're in love with Andre Drummond, but they're fine.

Is he on the fall outta love first team All-Stars? Andre Drummond. Teams have fallen outta love with him a few times.

Yeah, for sure.

Yeah.

I think that's, I think no one, no one loves him anymore. People just tolerate him.

I'm leaning a little toward disease of more, but I want to see how the first couple months play

out.

Just a little bit. I think Towns specifically with the extension, and I heard what you said yesterday to Mahoney, Zach, about the would you say 4 years, $200, basically $50 a year?

That, that's, that's reportedly— I can't confirm that, but that's reportedly the offer. That's fair.

By the way, the re— the reason they traded for Towns was because he made so much money, Minnesota was freaked out by the contract, and that was why they were able to, you know, give up what they gave up for him, because people thought he was too expensive. He was on our worst contracts list multiple times.

Yeah, but then he came into the Knicks situation and was worth the money.

The problem is if they don't finish this before the season, they're in, they're in real, a real issue here because it basically, they, it carries out and then he has the player option. And there's gonna be teams that have cap space that are pretty excited. Like I'm looking at a team like Charlotte, for example, which I think, I don't know what their cap space situation will be, but they have a lot of expiring stuff. We'll see what the Miller extension is. But there's teams like that that could make a couple moves and all of a sudden say, yeah, we'll take Karl-Anthony Towns for $55 million a year for 4 years. I think he's gonna age pretty well because of his, you know, his game. But I'm watching that one. And also, you know, everything went right in the playoffs last year. Brunson became more famous. There's just in general a bigger spotlight on this team. This team is famous now. Which leads to my question. The big question, is Jalen Brunson, as crazy as this sounds, now the NBA's signature star?

No, I don't think so. I mean, not in a world where Victor Wembanyama is this 7'6 curiosity who's the most dominant defensive force we've ever seen, and he's only 22 or 23 or whatever he is. I don't think so, but he's not far from it. Because

I was thinking the SNL thing, which we've talked about. How many guys realistically could have hosted SNL that are in the NBA right now other than LeBron and Wemby?

Curry.

Curry. There's 3. Does Luka get that? I don't think he does.

No. Anthony Edwards.

I don't think he's that famous. I don't think he will. He's not famous enough yet.

If the Lakers win the championship, Luka would get that.

I'm just saying right now, I don't think Jayson Tatum's famous enough. Donovan Mitchell, go on down the line. But Brunson, I just think is massively famous though. And it would struck me like, 'cause we were always talking about, oh my God, the international guys, who's gonna be the American, who's gonna be face of the league, all that crap. And then in, in a year it got solved. Jalen Brunson is the most famous American basketball star that we have. I would say he's in the running for most popular because of how big the Knicks fan base is. He's respected. Incredibly fun to watch. I think he has at least a couple good years left. We'll see, you know, small guards, how it age. But it struck me thinking big picture about this league. He's the best clutch guy in the league too. Just big picture, like, fuck, Jalen Brunson, beyond the title and all that other stuff, like he's got the big piece of chicken at the dinner table now.

Deserves it. Deserves

it. What were the odds of that in 2021? I'm gonna say like 300 to 1. $1,000 to win.

The whole thing is a long shot. Jalen Brunson becoming a top 7 player in the NBA, whatever you think his floor is. I mean, people wanna say top 5, it's hard to crack the top 5. You wanna put him in there after what he just did? I can't really argue that much against you. And then hosting Saturday Night Live, like season premiere of Saturday Night Live.

That's unbelievable.

That's crazy.

Truly, this is like Derek Jeter level famous all of a sudden. We'll see how many years he could stay at this level and we'll see how many years in general for the Knicks. 'Cause my whole half, half decade rule with contenders, I think this is a 3-year contender run for them now. Usually means they have 2 left. From changes from last year, they lose Mitchell Robinson, which is not insignificant. Replaced him with Drummond. We'll see how that goes. They got Bruce Brown. I'm a slight under on this 51.5 just because of the pattern that this team has had in regular seasons in the past. Of, ah, there's a malaise. Ah, they didn't show up. Oh, they're playing well again. Oh, now they're not. And just being up and down. And I don't think they're gonna really care about the regular season either. I don't think they met— I don't think they ultimately care if they're 1, 2, 3, or 4. I think they just want all their guys healthy. They're not gonna have the tanking teams this year to beef the record up against. And it, it, I think it's somewhere between like 48 and 50.

would be where I land on them. So I'm a, I'm a mild and apologetic under because I still think they're the favorites in the East. What do you have, Zach?

I'm right there with you. Very, very slight and unwilling under. You nailed a lot of the, a lot of the issues, possible championship hangover. Fine. They deserve a championship hangover. And I also, you know, the East is really, really strong. top to bottom. They had great health last season. And in general, just like I, I had a hard time with the East 'cause there are so many good teams in the East.

Yeah.

And you can't, as I was going over overs and unders and win totals, like I've gotta, I had to pick a couple of top-tier East teams to go under on 'cause I think there's just gonna be a huge scrunching of all these teams sort of close together. So, you know, just 53 wins last year. I could see 50, 49, on the low end this year. So slight under. Yeah.

You have 52 games in the East House.

Yeah. I,

I, and you're gonna have 44 of those games or 45 or whatever are, are gonna be against teams that actually give a shit. And then there's Brooklyn and Milwaukee.

I do wanna point out Knicks were incredible at home last season. Yeah. 37 and 12 straight up at home. The New York

Knicks, including playoffs.

Yes. Because they wanted to show everybody, you know, when the, when the fans come to their stadium, right? This is what, what we're, we're gonna give you the treat that you deserve. A lot of those were those comebacks, those giant Knicks comebacks that became the hallmark. And I don't know, just basic regression I think says that you're not gonna have that. I'm an under. I like this better when it was 52.5.

Interesting. I thought one of us would go over, but—

Well, they've won 53 last year. That's the right kind of number for them. And they got 53 like right at the end of the season. And so I like this when it was 52.5 and then I played a 52. That's good. But I'll go ahead and go under. I don't mind 51. It's not disrespectful. I think they're gonna win 50 or 51 games.

There's a bullseye thing with them too now where every time they play anyone, it's the most important game of the month for that team, right? You play like they play, pick anyone, the Cavs, the Sixers, the Celtics, like, oh shit, we're playing the Knicks. We gotta bring it tonight. So I, it's just a lot. And this team over the course of a regular season has just been a little too erratic, but that's fine because all that matters is the playoffs.

To, to be clear, 'cause we all went under, I will pick the Knicks to make the finals. So I don't want Knicks fans to be like furious about it. I think they're the best team in the conference, but I'm just going slight under on their regular season win total.

They need their guys to be healthy come April. And we've seen them, you know, different guys have taken different months off. Regular season-wise before, and they have to solve this backup center thing. It's not gonna be Andre Drummond as the solution.

I am between them and one other team for the Finals, and I'm not making the decision till Tuesday next week. Boston Celtics over-under 51.5, same as the Knicks. Division +210, conference 5-to-1, title 14-to-1. Last year they were 56-26. And I'll ask this question to Hal since he's wearing the t-shirt. What if the Jayce— the, uh, Jalen trade turns out to be a home run for the Celtics?

Well,

what if we're like, holy shit, what a smart trade in like March?

Leading, leading the witness just to where you want him to go. Just, just—

So what if it's the, the words start with what if?

So I don't think that the trade is gonna be a home run. What is going to work out for the Celtics is the arrival of Mitchell Robinson and what impact that has specifically on one player that becomes a version of himself that was disappointing on the offensive end, and that's Derrick White. I think the additional possessions that the, the Celtics are going to get without really understanding— I mean, I— they acquired Mitchell Robinson knowing what he's capable of, but like Taking those extra possessions and putting them into the Missoula combobulator and letting that sort of, you know, radiate out, it's just going to be— they're going to be an incredible regular season team. The question marks I have, the skepticism I have, the reason that I wouldn't endorse the trade is because come playoff time, let's see what this looks like. Let's see what this team looks like. I, I'm not, I'm not— 100% confident. convinced that they're better than either the Knicks or the Sixers come playoff time?

I have no notes. I thought you laid it out perfectly. I will say for the regular season and watching them in the preseason, they're deep. Tatum looks great. Paul George, who they really only need 50 games from, and they have these other young guys that they can just kind of move in and out depending on the game. They're very Kind of schedule flexible with their lineups. They could be like, oh, tonight's a Ron Harper game. Hey, Hugo's gonna play 30 tonight. Ah, we got some Sharman. And by the way, Sharman looks great. It looks like he added like £10 of muscle. So I think they're looking at Tatum's basically replacing Brown from last year, and then this George, Hugo, Sharman, a little Ron Harper, and then more Peyton Pritchard shots. And I just think they can replace all the Jalen offense. So then it comes down to style stuff. And again, it's preseason, but we've all been watching preseason because it seems like people, the players and the teams actually care because the preseason's so short. They were doing some really interesting stuff with Paul George as point forward that felt a little different than, and I'm not going to bash Jalen, I love Jalen, but it felt a little different than when Jalen was the point forward where it almost felt like Paul George was like a giant point guard running the offense and trying to find stuff, and they just had a lot of size.

And I thought it was good use of him. The team chemistry seems great. Everybody seems really happy, and I don't think they're gonna have minutes issues or anything. I think they're gonna be a really good regular season team, and I don't know what that means for the playoffs, but for regular season, I think they're gonna be in the mid-50s. Zach,

who says no? Um, Hugo Gonzalez for Kevin Durant and the Nets pick unprotected.

Bill, what else can I get?

Uh, I thought the over-under was 50.5, by the way.

It went up. I texted you yesterday.

Oh, I—

The 2 over-unders that went up or down was Minnesota went down to 46.5 and Boston went up another one. There's been some Boston action.

I'm still, I'm still taking the over. I took it at 50.5, I'll take it at 51.5. Regular season wins machine. A little health issues with Paul George and Mitchell Robinson that make me slightly nervous. I don't think it's a no-brainer, but I'll take the over.

It's interesting with Mitchell Robinson. Let's say he'll, you know, he's gonna go out for 6 weeks. They do have Garza who, you know, played big minutes for them last year and they won with, you know, I'm not, I'm not saying he's—

Regular season.

The greatest for regular season. You can plug him in and it's not, not a disaster. The Mike Conley thing has been interesting. They just love him. I mean, everywhere Mike— it's unclear why Mike Conley just doesn't run for president. Maybe he should run in 2032. Everywhere he goes, people just love him and follow him like the, uh, the Pied Piper. But him and Paul George, like, couple vets, which is good. They took care of the Pritchard thing with at least an extension for one year. And, you know, you mentioned the Derrick White thing before. I think part of the reason for that is Teams the whole season were basically like, Jalen, go nuts. We're gonna guard you one-on-one and we're gonna stay with the other shooters. And if you beat us, you beat us. And he, to his credit, was awesome and did it. But I don't think White had the same kind of shots that he's gonna get this year. And I, I think he's actually gonna go up.

You don't agree with that? It's already happening. Like it starts, phase 1 is colonoscopy despair. Phase 2 is, I think I'm talking myself into the trade. Phase 3 is I've now talked myself into—

Yeah, that was August.

Phase 4, which officially began today, is prefacing a sentence with, I'm not bashing Jaylen Brown, I won't do that. But we're, we're get— we're get— we're getting to the final phase, which is the turn to the dark side. And I, I think I'm made Thanksgiving, maybe.

I'll never do it. I love Jaylen Brown.

Okay, good. Like, wait, wait till the end of March. Wait till this team has 59 wins, is the clear 1 seed in the East. And the Celtics Nation— we just went through this. Celtics Nation had an—

It always starts bad and the Celtics are good.

And this set of expectations around this Celtics team when Tatum came back, all of a sudden— and the hoops commentariat was guilty of this as well. All of the talking, chattering class. Like, well, the Celtics would take them back. Let's go ahead and maybe put them in Pennsylvania.

They had the second best odds in the finals.

I understand that it was not well-founded. So we'll see.

The Mitchell Robinson thing is important. He's won over my dad. My dad for his entire life has loved people who just get rebounds. He was just raving about how giant he is and he just, you know, he knew it because we used to go against him with the Knicks. But he was just like, this guy's— so basically they turned Jaylen Brown into Paul George and Mitchell Robinson, but they also have Fultz and Tatum back. And they won 56 games last year in a conference where, you know, you had 9 tanking teams outta the 30. So I, I feel like it's in 54 to 56. For me, this is— I hate to do it, but I think it's a lock.

I don't think you hate to do it, just for the record.

No, I love to do it.

I think you love to do it.

I do love to do it. I think this is a lock. I, Mazzulla has proven that day to day, week to week, he MacGyvers the regular season. And it's like, oh, I guess it's a Ron Harper game tonight. And they're winning in Cleveland by 8 in the 4th quarter. This is what they do. So 3 overs. All right.

Oh, I made it a lock as well. Oh,

okay.

For the avoidance of doubt.

I'm just, I'm not gonna lock just outta spite. I'm not getting the uni lock. No way.

No lock.

The, the questions would be Paul George, how many games? How many games for Mitch Robinson? And then obviously Tatum. And what kind of minutes can they put on Tatum? He looked absolutely spectacular in the preseason game I watched, but can he go back to being a 32 minutes, 72 to 75 games guy? Okay, buckle— where's my camera? Is that— I'm gonna go to my solo camera. Buckle the fuck up because we're about to talk about the Philadelphia 76ers. Woo! 49.5 is the over-under. Division +250, conference +410, title 10-to-1, playoffs -550, play-in house +280.

No thank you.

You didn't stare at that one for a second?

No.

Seemed to be the 7 seed.

I do want to be on record, I bet the Celtics to win the division at +210.

Okay,

like that price better than 2-to-1.

Their 2027 first goes to Brooklyn, but it is top 8 protected. They were 45-37 last year. They have added Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Anfernee Simons, LaVar Allen, Dean Wade, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. They lost Paul George, Kelly Oubre, Quentin Grimes, Kelly, and Kelly Oubre. I put it second time because apparently that was a huge loss. The big question, Zach Lowe.

Yeah.

How will the 76ers handle scrutiny, adversity, and anything else ending in -ity as the season goes along?

That includes unity. Uh, U-N-I-T-Y.

Pick another -ity.

U-N-I-T-Y.

Uh,

nudity. Anything with an -ity. How would they handle all the -ities this year?

Look, LeBron has seen it all. Joel has seen it all and been the butt of it all. I, I, Jaylen Brown has been a Finals MVP. He's just gotten traded in the most high-profile sort of like what trade in a while. I don't think much is gonna faze them now. I, you know, if they're 8-10 after 18 games, it's gonna be a little crazy. But I also think reflected in this line, there's a certain expectation that like we're just not gonna see the starting 5 together all that many games. It's gonna be a little clunky at first. I think For whatever reason, well, for all the reasons, people are giving this team a little bit of grace compared to a lot of past superteams. LeBron is almost 42 years old, so I, I don't worry about that. I really don't. It's gonna be a circus, but it's not gonna be like the Heat in 2010, like LeBron bumping Spo on the way to the bench. Is it all the sky falling? This is a failure, blah, blah, blah.

That one thing with the Embiid was late to a practice. Mike Breen, the nicest guy alive, somehow has to apologize Stephen A. style. for having the wrong information, which I'm not sure he had the wrong information.

Uh-oh.

House, we haven't talked about this on a pod, I don't think. What is your biggest concern with the Sixers other than Joel Embiid playing 35 games?

They don't have a backup center. It's Bona right now. It's Bona. So I think of this Sixers team as basically a team that's gonna play in— you divide the season up into thirds because it doesn't make any sense for LeBron or Embiid to be, you know, playing many more than 50 games each. I mean, and, and Embiid, 40 seems fine to me. But I do believe that the majority of nights we will see Maxey and Edgecomb and Jaylen Brown. And that solves, you know, a lot of what you hear people saying. Is there the How do we share the ball? How do we, you know, all those kinds of things. And I think they'll experiment over the course of the season.

So you feel like those 3 guys for 68 to 72 games each.

Yes.

You know, you have that.

Yep. And then at different points in time, they'll bring in LeBron and Embiid for stretches. And I'm, I think they're gonna be very targeted about it. I haven't sat down with their schedule to say, oh, this is the point where they should try, here's the 10-game stretch where, where they're gonna experiment. But I think that they will, break the season basically up into thirds and say, you know, we have this runway, we have all this depth, we have high-level talent, we won 45 games last year, we can be in the top 4 if we can get to 50. The number's perfect at 49.5. I think 50 is a reasonable goal for this team. And, you know, I— we have proof of concept that, uh, Maxey as the facilitator and, and Edgecomb, that works. So let's layer in Jaylen Brown. Will those 3 guys like playing together? I kind of think they will. So, and I think Dean Wade's super underrated, what he's gonna bring to the table for this team.

So basically their bench of Simons, Dean Wade, KCP, Bona by default, little Barlow. I still like Filan. I still feel like he's gonna be heard from. You know, obviously I've been following this league my whole life, and we've seen situations like this before where you have teams with a lot of famous players and accomplished players. And, you know, I think the '08 Celtics was probably the best version of how this all plays out, where you have guys who are at specific points of their career who were all good on their own, but had reached a point where they wanted to sacrifice for the greater good. I get really nervous when you have teams where I'm not sure guys are at the right points of their career for a team like this. And that's what I've been thinking about all summer as I try to figure out how scared I am of the Sixers. You have Embiid who breaks down every year, who has never really proven that he can be a guy who can play 4 rounds in the playoffs, who has all of his own stuff to prove. He is not Kevin Garnett in 2008 saying, I've done everything I can, I'll give up my 5 to 6 shots.

This is the last thing, my last hurdle. I think Embiid's trying to still prove I'm one of the best players in the league. I can play all the time. He's not at that sacrifice point yet. LeBron, every time he's been asked to really sacrifice, it always feels like it's begrudgingly, and we always have to hear about it from a bunch of different reporters. Like, How? No, it's true. It's like, oh, man, it's just unbelievable what LeBron's doing. He's all about winning. We always have to hear the dialogue in real time about it. Jalen is the one that really worries me with this because Jalen went from being the guy to now being the supporting actor in a giant movie that he gets a couple scenes with Matt Damon and he gets a couple scenes with DiCaprio, but he's basically the Alec Baldwin part. Just set some picks. We might need you some night. We're not gonna go to you at the end of the game. Stand over there. I don't know how he's gonna handle that. Maxey, who still hasn't proven he's a top 7, 8 guy who can carry a team and is right at the point of his career where he would love to do that, now has to worry about all this other stuff.

And then you have Edgecomb in year 2 who's trying to prove that he's a real guy in the league. And I think he will be, and I like him. But it just, all that stuff worries me when kind of nobody's at the right point of their career for a team like this. And I can't get past

it. Was that a long prelude to an emphatic under?

I'm going, I'm going under. Okay. I am. I have them in the mid-40s.

I thought you were gonna zag. I was saying, I thought it was gonna, I thought I was waiting for all that said.

No, I'm going under. I think they're in the 43 to 45 range and I don't think they're really gonna care that much. Woo. Lock it up then.

43 wins.

That's crazy.

I think they're— I think the East is really good. I think they're gonna have stretches where they go like 3-7 in 10 games and everybody's writing about what's wrong with the Sixers. And I would not want to see them in a playoff series, period. So please don't. We're talking regular season only. I think it's going to be up and down with swings and a lot of coverage. And I think once there's blood in the water We've seen how the media and the blogosphere and the podcasts all react to it. The moment something's unhappy, we're going to blow it up. The moment somebody has a quote somewhere, the moment somebody's official media spokesman on whatever podcast or show talks about how something's unhappy, and everyone's going to blow that out. And it's just going to be— we saw this with the Heat in 2011. I think it's going to be like that. So, and then it'll get to the playoffs and it might be fine, but I think it's gonna be up and down. So I am under. Where are you, Zach?

The fully actualized version of this team is the biggest threat to the Knicks in the playoffs.

No question.

I don't know that we'll ever see the fully actualized version of this team because of all the health issues, but even like the version where Embiid is semi-healthy and able to be load managed through part of the playoffs, I think is still Among, if not the most dangerous threat to the Knicks. I just, regular season, I think if I'm Philly, my goal is I don't care where I am as long as I'm in the top 6. I, if I'm in the top 6, I'm in. I don't have to exert myself in a play-in game or 2 to get in. I get a week off or whatever it is. I think that's hugely important to them. I am going a little bit under, 47-ish wins is fine for me. I just think 50. I think there are just too many moving parts, but I, I don't worry about the one ball problem. I'm not worried as much, nearly as much as you are about the drama and the anonymous, you know, this guy was late, this guy said this in a film session. Maybe that comes out, maybe it won't.

It's going to happen.

I mean, remember it happened when Embiid was called out in a film session for being late and he lashed out like, I'm going to— we can't have this coming out of our locker room. Maybe they got it out of their system, but I'm going a slight under. only 'cause also similar to the Western Conference, I have a lot of like overs in the meat of the Eastern Conference and I need to have an under at the top. So that's the Knicks and now it's the Sixers.

So where I looked at my notes, I wrote them down for 45 wins. So you had 'em at 47. So we're 2 apart. Where are you, House?

I have them winning 50 games. So I have them as, as an over. Love it.

Ooh, House.

And I don't think that they're—

I like it.

The end of game stuff, like what you're describing in terms of your concerns around Jaylen Brown, they are going to feed him. I think Maxey, Maxey is bumping up against that top 8 or 10. Remember the conversation we were having about Maxey through the first like 40 games, 50 games of the season last season where everybody was skeptical of, of the Sixers and Maxey's like, fuck that. I'm, don't be skeptical of anything. Now he did lead the league in minutes. Nick Nurse does ride his horses.

He does.

But here's the thing, Jaylen Brown will help that. Maxey doesn't have to.

Jaylen Brown wants to play. He'll play 2,700 minutes. Yes. If you put him out there.

And the good thing is, you know, some of the sort concern I've seen in the run-up to the season around how will this work is will it impair Edgecombe's development? Well, I don't think him playing with Brown and Maxey's gonna impair his development. And I think under the tutelage of, of LeBron, you know, when he's on the floor with LeBron, well, at this stage of his career, he's, he's brand new to the league and he gets to play in a circus. So there, there's something—

Hey LeBron, can I talk to you after the game? I can't, I'm flying on my helicopter. 10:01. I'll talk to you tomorrow.

I think Edgecomb is gonna develop just fine. I think the Sixers team, top 4 in the East, so they get home court in the first round. Not that it matters, but like, that's where I have them.

So I think the end of the game stuff is gonna be an actual thing. If Embiid's out there, you have to give him the ball.

I mean, maybe there's been times in the preseason, the one game he played where he was in the corner here and there, they'll just have to mix it up. That's basketball. Yeah. That's what happens when you get a lot of good players on your team. I think honestly, like a team that's trying to win the championship this year, and that's what the Sixers are doing, whether you believe in it or not, should not have Vijay Edgecombe in the role that he would have on a bad team in his second year. That's just not, that's not a realistic thing. And the Edgecombe, the, the pause I had going under was despite LeBron being 42, we know Embiid's gonna miss games. Edgecombe, Maxey Brown is a really nice 4 to have on a night-to-night basis. Like it's, this was a hard line for me. I really just had to have a couple unders toward the top of the East, and this felt like one just, just to have.

I wish I felt better about their backup center situation and the 20 to 50 games somebody else is gonna have to play all the center minutes for them.

It feels like there's guys out there though. The, the Claxton, the Bagley. I'm just saying at some point they, they can address it.

We'll see. I think in the playoffs it's a completely different conversation.

Yeah.

Regular season only.

Yeah.

There's one other thing I wanted to mention. I was thinking about, uh, there's this incredible LeBron subplot. Of all the times he plays a team where it's gonna feel like a huge game, even though he's gonna be 42 this season— Cleveland, Toronto against Kawhi, the Celtics, his biggest rival, the Knicks, the champs, Miami, dick-teased them, obviously not A lot of good blood there. Lakers, kind of a weird exit. Houston, KD. Golden State, Curry, Dray, and Kerr. And then OKC and San Antonio. I just listed 10 teams that it's gonna be like, whoa, LeBron against blank. And it's just because he's been in the league so long, he just has a lot of these now. You know,

the idea of LeBron in a playoff series against either Cleveland or Miami is very, very delicious.

Or Toronto. How about Toronto?

I mean, he's— it's LeBronto already.

Yeah.

He's been there, done that. I would put— I, you think Boston's his biggest rival over Golden State? Who he faced in 4 straight finals?

Boston was his biggest East rival for the first, I don't know, 10 years of his career. That was the mountain for him.

Yeah.

Then it became Golden State. Yep. It's Golden State. I compared Steph Curry to Carmelo Soprano in part 1 of our podcast. I don't know if Golden State's anyone's rival.

Yeah.

House Jack in NYC had this email for you.

Uh-oh.

He knew you'd like it. With LeBron ending the process and Joel Embiid looking skinny coming into the season, I was thinking of some fitting new nicknames for Joel. GOP 21 or Joe Zempic.

Joel Zempic.

Joe Zempic.

Yeah,

Joel is that now.

Yeah,

I just think maybe it's

pretty

good. He's in shape. Okay, 3 unders for us.

Nope, it isn't.

Oh, sorry, 2 unders and an over.

What a brave man.

Toronto Raptors over 46.5 is the over-under. Division 5-to-1, conference 9-to-1, title 22-to-1, playoffs -270. Their draft pick goes to the Clippers this year. They were 46-36 last year, 16-14 in their last 30, but that was before they turned Brandon Ingram and Mamu into Kawhi Leonard And Alan Graves. And before we even talk about the Raptors, I want to predict right now that Alan Graves is going to be Zach Lowe's favorite bench player in the entire league.

Oh,

wow.

Yeah.

Something.

I think there's going to be—

not bench rookie, bench player.

Bench player. I think you're going to, you're going to have a whole— now that your fingers work again, I think there could even be an Alan Graves post in your future. I think you're going to be completely fascinated by him every time he's in the game.

I mean, on his own team, I'm assuming Collin Murray-Boyles at least starts the season coming off the bench.

I, I'm— Another Zach Lowe favorite.

Couldn't be more excited for that.

The big question, House, is Kawhi a villain? Is he disgraced? Is he totally the same? Is he better off? What is he?

I hate to answer a question with a question, but Does it matter?

I wrote down next, does he care?

I'm sure he does not.

He for sure does not care.

He does not care.

No. Will this be fun? Will it be weird? Will it be elephant in the roomy, or are we just all going to move on?

Well, it's going to be fun for him because we— there's proof of concept. Toronto loves him. He is a beloved, you know, welcome. He's not a prodigal son. Or is he? I don't know.

Does Toronto love Kawhi, or do they appreciate Kawhi? They love Kawhi? Is there actual love for him? He was there for 9 months.

It's appreciate, but— He won them a goddamn title. The city is so starved for— the Maple Leafs haven't won in a million years. The Raptors were an afterthought for so long. And then the Lowry, DeRozan teams just got punched down by LeBron year after year. I think appreciate more. They love Kyle Lowry. They love DeMar DeRozan.

Okay. Good point. Good point. They love Kyle Lowry.

Great, great. Okay, I get the difference.

So we all think Kawhi could care less.

I'm positive of it.

The next question is—

I think he already forgot. I think he's already like, what happened over the summer stuff?

Do we think Kawhi can still be an All-NBA player for the Toronto Raptors?

1 million percent. What would the argument against that be?

All right.

Injury.

Just availability.

Just injury. That's all. The usual.

We all agree on that. Do we like the Raptors roster? That includes Murray-Boyles, Scottie Barnes, who made a leap last year, RJ Barrett in the contract year. Quickley's back. Graves, Walter, I like Jamal Shed.

Yeah.

Zeke loved his contract extension.

Defensive beast.

Jackson Davis, and, uh, and hopefully Jakob Poeltl with, uh, hopefully a new back. I feel like we all like this roster, so why isn't this an automatic over?

I think questions about the level of shooting, Kawhi's availability, spacing, depth, and just again,

I feel like

they have

depth.

I mean, they have Shed, who's very— Shed and Murray-Boyles is 6 and 7, and Walter is 8. That's a very good top 8. You're right. Beyond that, I get a little more—

I think Graves is gonna be 9 and you're gonna fall in love with him in 10 games. I think Battle comes

in and swings a quarter, so maybe they have enough depth. I think it's just, it was a little mucky on offense last year. Kawhi should be a salve for all of that. I just think it's more the East is really good. I, I'm sure the line is factoring in that Kawhi plays 50 games or 55 games, and what do they do when they don't have him? And you know, 22-30 against .500 and above teams last year, 24-6 against the rest. You know, it's just, I, I wouldn't get too ahead of my skis on them as like a regular season juggernaut, but I will take the over on this line.

Kawhi's gonna play because he's not gonna have to hold his availability hostage to get more payments while not knowing about what, how he is getting paid.

I mean, here's the concern with Kawhi. He did it last year. That was an incredible—

Played a full season.

Incredible season that he had last year.

Yeah.

When's the last time he did it 2 consecutive years? That, that's my issue.

2011 draft, year 16.

Yeah, this is my issue.

I—

he used up all of the, the, the juvenation juice last season and it was a waste.

I really wanted to zag and go Raptors under, but man, the Murray-Boyles and Barnes and Kawhi out there together at the end of games just sounds like a fucking nightmare.

Look out.

It really does. I also think Barrett is a pretty interesting trade piece for them. If that's somebody that isn't going to, um, maybe be there long-term and maybe they've moved their money in a specific direction, they still have the ability to flip him for something, whether they want more shooting, whether they wanna roll the dice with like a more expensive center, who knows?

So there's 2 things to say as I look at this number. First of all, it's Kawhi Leonard replacing Brandon Ingram.

That sounds great.

They won 46 games last year.

And Murray Boyle's year 2.

Why is this number 46.5?

Because of Kawhi's availability and the East is really good.

And it just stayed right there.

'Cause people don't know how to price it.

People don't know how to price it.

Like, I'm taking the over. I'm not making it a lock.

Well, here's the other thing.

I flirted, I flirted with lock. I flirted with lock and I had to talk 'cause I think this is gonna be a really good regular season team.

Yeah.

My Kawhi sustainability concerns are more about playoff, like survival and sustainability every other

day. Yeah.

But I had to, I had, I'm not locking it. I had to sort of walk myself back from like lock status.

They were 2-22 against the top 6 teams in the West and the top 3 teams in the East.

House and I were going crazy last year 'cause we had the under for the Raptors and they were driving us crazy.

They, somehow

they hit the over anyway

because they beat the hell out of, out of bad teams. Every shit team they ended up with an above .500 record against the above .500 teams, but against the top upper echelon, this top 6 teams in the West and the top 3 in the East, 2-22.

They didn't have Kawhi Leonard and they had Brandon Ingram apparently playing on a partially torn Achilles tendon for a lot of that.

That's the answer. That's what you have to come up with. It's an under for me. I think they're gonna win exactly 46 games again.

Zach, is there any way they could turn Barrett and something else into Kyrie? If Dallas is kind of punting on this year and doing one more 4-year tenure.

Sure. Sure. I, you know, you gotta sweeten it with probably a, a pick at 2 picks. I don't know how many picks. Other, other stuff swaps. Barrett's a really interesting player because I, I, I simultaneously think he's become underrated and I, I agree that I wouldn't be shocked if they trade him. I wouldn't be shocked if they decide they're better with him as a 6th man and Jacoby Walter starting, although I don't think that they would really have the institutional fortitude to make that move. But he was their leading scorer in the playoffs, I think. And he's

become kind of their most reliable basket.

He was.

He's become a pretty good 3-point shooter. His defense hasn't come along as much as they had hoped, but he's like a really good all— he does a little bit of everything. And somehow that the jack of all trades, master of nothing leaves you Sometimes wanting more, but sometimes I think you have to look at him and be like, I'm pretty satisfied. This guy's like 25 and 5. It's a pretty good player. I'm not just willy-nilly throwing him into trades.

Yeah. I wonder for an extension, he's probably in the $23 to $25 a year range with a lot of the other guys we mentioned in part 1. But if he thinks he's getting more than that, he's not staying.

For the record, I had Toronto over last year and I never sweated it for one second.

I thought No, I had the under with somebody.

I had a wonderful over with—

what do you have for this?

Mid-30s, under 46.5, because I think they're gonna win 46 games again this year.

Slight under for House.

I didn't say it.

I think this team's gonna be kind of a nightmare when they have all their dudes together. This is one of those on the schedule where if you're whoever, you're like, ah, fuck, I got Kawhi, Murray, Boyles, Barnes and that fucking Graves guy. And they— I gotta deal with all of this.

Jersey yet?

Love Graves. You're gonna love him, I'm telling you. I didn't like him in the draft, but I, I watched him for a half in Summer League and I was like, this guy's amazing.

The Phil Simmons experience.

He is. He does your favorite thing, Zach Lowe, the, um, rope-a-dope, the across half-court pass where it seems like he's running back but he's not, and then he just jumps and takes Quickest U-turn

on— quickest U-turn on a rookie ever, uh, from I hated him in Summer League to I'm now so high on him that he's gonna be your favorite player coming off the bench.

Yeah, I think, I think he's gonna be good. It's gonna be hilarious when he's in the G League all year. All right, last but not least— oh no, last but least,

last and least,

the Brooklyn Nets. I'm not even reading the odds. They were 20-62 last year. Last 30, they 5 and 25. And good news, they don't have their first round pick. Houston gets to swap with them. Their over-under is 24.5. And my big question, House, could Brooklyn execute the first ever zombie tank? What's a zombie tank? It's how I think at least one bad team will handle not having a 2027 first rounder where you want to be in the bottom 3. Because you don't want your owner being like, what the fuck? Why did we end up in the 4 to 10 and we just gave them the first pick in the draft? Why'd we do that? We're gonna be in that bottom 3, right? Um, the question for me— they did this with the— when the Celtics had their picks and they just treated the pick like a sunk cost and they didn't really care what happened. And it was to the— and then there was another year where they did care. And they were posting up Brook Lopez for a month straight as my dad was going nuts. Will it be more the sunk cost version, or will they do what the Pelicans did last year?

We're like, we don't have our pick, let's just go for it. What would you do if you ran the Nets?

You mean the Pelicans went for it last year and still only won 26 games?

They were 10-20 in their last 30. They were like trying to win. But what would you do if you're the Knicks? Is that— or the Nets? Is that you don't care?

This is my favorite team, the 2-ball Nets. They can't wait to give out 2 balls. They are— they have 2 balls. In fact, I might put 2 balls, like the Nets logo with, with, with some danglers.

The Sam Cassell balls.

That's what they're gonna be. It's exactly right. It's the 2 Balls Nets.

They get— you think this is a whoever's dribbling over half court gets to shoot?

Oh, 1,000%.

Can we bring Tyreke Evans outta retirement to play for this team?

I read a summary that said that they're rebuilding. They're, they're done with the tank phase and now they're in the, like the rebuilding. They've turned the corner. I'm like, look at this roster. What the fuck corner did they turn?

Rebuilding, building, building. I don't— what, what's the right word, Zach?

Rebuilding. They're still rebuilding.

Still rebuilding.

I think you guys are being mean. You're being mean. Okay. Jaeger Jolman is going to be really good. I think. I mean, I like him.

Like,

I like him too.

Settle down then. I like Mikhail Brown Jr. I think those guys will be an interesting—

I like him for the 22 games he plays this year.

Good.

Julius Randle and Michael Porter Jr. are legit NBA good, like low-end borderline All-Star kind of players. The line is 24.5. It actually— listen, now look, this was a tough— the East was really tough for me because all the logic would say that because of the lottery odds being the way they are, you should look askance at like really low lines and take the over on them. And yet I looked at Brooklyn and a couple other teams. And I was like, well, A, you're outlining the incentive correctly. They actually don't care if they're relegated. It might actually be better for their pick to be relegated. And so I don't think they care. And I think the opposite also applies is that with everyone else trying harder, there are just no easy games for a team that's not very good.

Yeah.

And so that, that could apply the other way. I also think that, look, Jordi Fernández will have them playing super hard. He's a really good coach. All of that on paper, this should be an over. But given everything I just said and the fact that part of rebuilding is, I think Michael Porter Jr. is sitting there eligible for an extension.

This is the other piece.

Yes.

Is it, did they feel like a potential sell team? So I'm actually going under on 24.5 despite the logic being all the win totals would be scrunched toward the—

I'm going hard under. And that's one of the big reasons is I don't think Porter Jr.'s on this team in February.

Zach, is that an ethical under because you were nice about it and Simmons and I were unethical unders?

Yeah.

'Cause we were so mean.

I gave mine to them.

I guess, I guess it's ethical in the sense that I think if this team played balls out all year long and didn't, and played their young players and their veterans and all that, they would win more than 24.5. They would win 25 or more games.

Okay.

They still might, but I'm going under.

Fine.

Zach runs into people who work for the Nets, like when he goes to a Nets game or a Knicks game. And tries to, you know, he's

like, he does not—

Pleasant, happy guy.

Don't send me a text, Sean Marks. That's what—

No. And they, and they go, why does Simmons hate us so much? What's— why— what does he have against us? I don't have anything against the Nets. I just think they're stupid. I think they run the team terribly. That's what I have against the Nets— incompetence. They do dumb shit. And by the way, if Ishbia hadn't thrown them the all-time lifeline of an unhappy superstar on a big contract who wanted to get the fuck out of there and was picking his team, AKA Giannis, last summer. And all Phoenix had to do was wait it out. Instead, Phoenix is like, here's everything, take it all. If that hadn't happened, this team would be a fucking catastrophe. By the way, they should have taken Darius Akuff in the draft. I'll say it.

They should've. But it did happen. And then they even flipped the bonanza for even more with the Mikal Bridges trade, which has worked out fine for both teams. And so now it's, now it's time to turn those things into things. And that's why the, the Brown pick is, is gonna be—

It's great. They got a bunch of first-rounders from a team that's gonna win 50 to 55 games every year.

The 5 first-rounders.

You just said the Knicks had a 3-year window and that's it. We're already in year 2 of it and you're in your telling and those picks like further out than that.

The Nets fans are gone. This is like when they— when you're watching those movies where they have the makeshift business in an office that everybody can clear out in 40 minutes, and then the feds show up and nothing's gone, and there's just— you see the computer wires and you're like, there was definitely an office here. That's the Nets fans. They're gone. The Knicks ended the Nets. And guess who else ended them? The Liberty. The— you go to Barclays for a Liberty game and it's 100 times more energetic than the Nets. The Nets are done. It's over. They need to move.

The office you're describing was already firmly in work-from-home, 4-days-a-week mode. There wasn't that much to take out of the office. But you're correct about— they really did lose an entire generation of fans.

They have no fans.

Whatever chance they had at the young generation, 12-and-under fans, is gone. They're all Knicks fans forever.

It's gone. They have lost the city. It's a wrap. They're not getting it back. It will never get it back. And people will go to Barclays to see the other teams, and that's their destiny. They're basically the Clippers in the 2000s. You have nothing else to say, House?

I agree with all of that.

Okay.

Now you under, under. It's a, it's a triple under.

I took under. Yeah.

Okay. I will say I like a couple of the Nets.

Jetman's good.

I enjoy Clowney. I think he can have a moment on a real team. I have, I have a small whiff of Traore stock. There's something there. I don't know what. He's like 15 years old. And, and I like Josh Minott when he was on the Celtics. I still feel like I haven't given up on him either. On a bad team, there might be something.

I'm going to go to sleep tonight and at like 2 in the morning, think about— I'm going to wake

up and

I'm going to just start screaming, I enjoy clowny! I enjoy clowny! I enjoy Clowney.

Wait a second, what's wrong with Clowney?

No, he's fine. It's just the most random player to enjoy that I could possibly imagine. I just never thought I would hear you say the words, I enjoy Clowney.

They lost Nick Claxton, who I think hasn't been good in at least 2 years. He had a cup of coffee, but that's about it. I think this is one of the worst rebuilds in recent history. I'm just in awe of how bad it is. They tanked the last 2 seasons and ended up with 2 rookies that I'm not even sure will ever make an All-Star team.

The 5 first-round picks in 2025 will be an all-timer.

I think Joe Mann's gonna be good. I mean,

okay,

maybe I'll plant my flag and scoop up— and they fell to what, what is he, the 8th pick or something? I mean, they fell like Jordan Friedens won too many games, and so they didn't get where they wanted to go. And you know, it's not like they picked Anthony Bennett or something with the number 1 pick. They had a mid-first-round, mid-lottery pick, and I think he's gonna be pretty good.

Could they go back to New Jersey? That ship has sailed.

Swamp Dragons, baby.

New Jersey's red hot right now. Netflix is moving there. Real estate's on fire. People like Jersey. Maybe they need a stadium.

Would you rather have—

Could they move Barclays? Like when people move their houses to a different location? Is Barclays too big to do that? Can they just move it?

They have the hockey stadium. They can't play in Prudential where they play hockey?

I would think about it. Just make the Barclays the Liberty Stadium. What were we going to say, Zach?

Just the, like, the 3 picks right after Joe Man, Murray Boyles, Malawach, Coward. I think you'd still, as much as my optimism exists for Joe Man, I think you'd still say I want Murray Boyles and Coward over him long-term for sure.

Oh, really?

Malawach? No. Yeah,

I would much rather have Coward and Murray Boyles. Okay. Well, that was a rollicking First Division for us. It's all downhill from here. We're gonna take a break and then we have the, uh, the Central coming up next. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. We're spending this entire 2-part podcast trying to figure out what we actually believe about this NBA season. Who's winning the title? Who's going over? Who's going under? What predictions are we, we gonna regret by February? I'm sure there's gonna be a few. FanDuel has a reward stack built Exactly for all this stuff. You get a stack of rewards to use on NBA Futures. So while we're sitting here talking ourselves into teams for the rest of the shows, you can make your future picks alongside us on FanDuel, or you can go against us. Put your reward stack to work on NBA Futures with FanDuel. Check it out on the FanDuel app. Make this your most rewarding season ever. 21+ select states or 18+ DC or Wyoming. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER, call 888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org/fanduel. Chat in Connecticut. It's football season and Uber Eats is delivering deals every single day.

This week, buy a 4-piece signature chicken from Popeyes and get another one free on Uber Eats. When your watch party gets hungry, order in and keep everyone's attention where it matters— on the game. Order a 4-piece signature chicken from Popeyes, get another one free. No matter who scores big tonight, you'll score great deals on Uber Eats all season long because it's not football Without food, it really isn't. Popeyes offer valid through November 1st. Add eligible menu item to order prior to checkout. Taxes, fees, and terms apply. Product availability varies by region. Exclusions may apply. See app for details. The Central Division is here. We're going to start with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Their over-under is 48.5, +125 for the division, 9-to-1 for the conference, 25-to-1 for the title. They do not have their draft pick. They're +750 for the 1 seed. They were 52-30 last year. The big question, Zach, if you can't win a title with James Harden, which I think we've proven, why would you then double down on 2 more years of James Harden?

Back end of that contract is gonna hurt. I would just say—

How about the front end and the middle end? He was good in a preseason game this week and people were like, James Harden's still cooking. Of course he was. It was the preseason. What's gonna happen when he has to play defense in a conference finals game? We saw this podcast 4 months ago.

This podcast is about 48.5 regular season wins.

It is. It's a great point.

What were my alternatives? Like, I, they, I, they, the Garland trade, I was surprised that they just sort of gave up on Garland and it was obviously a huge win-now move. I, I thought, you know, it made some sense to them. I don't know what else they could have done this summer. They tried to get LeBron. He didn't income. And so what, with no cap flexibility, I mean, they had to like shed a gazillion salaries to get Payton Watson, which is a worthy gamble.

You know what else happened? Kenny Atkinson, I don't know if you saw this analytically, he thought they won the summer.

All right. Okay.

What else were you gonna say about the Cavs?

No, I, look, I, I'm not, I don't trust the Cavs in the playoffs. Yeah. To be clear, like I am Fox Mulder on all these Eastern Conference teams. I don't trust 'em. I don't trust James Harden and big game. Not exactly a scorcher of a take in the year of our basketball gods, 2026, but I do trust them to win regular season games. I just think they're too talented in the starting 5 and the first 3 or 4 guys they have coming off the bench. I have a lot of faith in, and I'm, I'm going over and I will make it a lock.

Wow.

That is so strong. Okay.

Love that strong take.

Really like it. Okay. I have 2 questions for House. You were a big Peyton Watson fan. 'Cause my question was, what if they were wrong about Peyton Watson? 'Cause this was the all-in special. They have no capital, no assets, no cap space. If this doesn't work out with what they just built, the next move is to trade Evan Mobley.

Yep.

Because—

Now you need to settle down, Juice. Whatever is in that white cup, like, fill it up.

I'm just saying we're outta moves. If it's like, shit, we need to make a move, we are now in Evan Mobley is the move because that's— there's no moves left.

No, I

mean, you just got a huge—

Jared Allen is gonna be—

I don't think people are lining— I don't think people are lining up for that Jared Allen.

You're trading Karl Towns to the Hornets and Evan Mobley around the league. Set a pour, glass of juice.

I'm just saying, if it doesn't work out this year and the trade game, blame game starts getting played, not a lot of options.

All right.

But you like Peyton Watson?

I do. I think that he is exactly what this team needed. I, I was glad to see, you know, they, they really battled. I think that the seasoning of their very tough road through the playoffs,

yeah,

was like extremely valuable. That, that's the floor-raising effect for, for Mobley, I hope, because their entire, you know, fortunes really reside in what is Mobley ceiling. We kind of keep saying it every season and he kind of does get a little bit better and then he goes quiet a little bit. That was my next question for you. Give us some questions. Go ahead.

My next question for you was, is there any kind of leap left for Mobley or is this where we are?

I think there's still a leap.

Has he topped out as an 18-9 guy? He was 30% from 3 last year. So the 3-point—

That's one place.

Shooting barrage has not taken off.

Yeah.

4 years, $223 million left. And they, as far as we could tell, would not talk about him for Giannis, right?

I certainly heard that, that they would not.

They would not. And they would not talk about him for Jaylen Brown either. Seems like they wouldn't. Did you hear others? You heard otherwise?

No, no, I don't remember off the top of my head.

NBA RumorNet.com.

I don't think they did, but I don't remember.

I don't— his name, I didn't feel like it was floating around. Peyton Watson thing. I talked about this on my podcast. It's— you're really betting on that 19 games he played when Jokic wasn't there for most of them and they had to run the entire offense through him. And I have real questions about how much ball time he's gonna get on a team with Mitchell.

But are you really betting on that at $22 million a year? Are you betting on that he's the lockdown defender that you need and makes enough corner 3s, and he's gonna

have to be. But we have a 3-year sample size with Denver where he wasn't that, right? And then year 4,

I

don't know, showed flashes of it. He played in year 3, he played like 14 minutes a game in the playoffs for Denver. Yeah, he was basically like their 10th man.

It was a mistake.

Maybe his defense has always been legit. I don't worry about his defense at all. I just need him to see, make sure the shot from the corner in particular is real.

I just want to raise— I'm pro-Peyton Watson. I just wonder, was that— that's it, you're all in at this point and that's your move, and you're not 100% positive he can be your 5th guy glue guy guy? So Zach seems more, more convinced on this.

Well, I mean, the guy you're really all in on that we've barely talked about is Donovan Mitchell's $76.4 million player option in 2031. I mean, that was the real all-in move. And there's almost— I love Donovan Mitchell more than almost anyone in the media. I'm always higher on him than you guys when we do all NBA stuff.

You, you, you guys.

Yeah, you guys do. Um, there's almost no chance that that's a, that's a good contract, and there's like almost 100% chance that it ends up being a, a bad contract at the end.

I'll never say anything bad about a Greenwich Country Day. Graduate. Um, they lost Max Strus and Dean Wade and added Peyton Watson. Feels like a sideways— they added Hezonja.

Yeah, baby.

People like Thomas that they got in the draft. There's some Tomlin stock that's better out in the market.

They like Thomas. They like Thomas.

They like Thomas. He had a big Summer League too. Uh, I, I was a hard over for the Cavs. I think they're in the low 50s.

Look at that.

Great.

Lock it up with me. Come on though. Come on though. Cleveland Lock Island over here.

You know what else? They should be in the, in the low 50s cuz they're spending about $300 million for this team. Like they end every draft pick asset they've had.

They're doing exactly what they're supposed to do. They made it there. You know, you got Donovan Mitchell to a conference.

So fucking lock it down.

No, I'm just over. I'm just over. I'm just over. Yeah. It's a regular over for me.

3 overs, all that rigmarole and everyone's over about 48.5, which is not a small number.

The funny thing is the market's moving in that, you know, it was 47.5 for a while and people are like, oh, wait a minute, that's low.

I thought the division odd for them, that was gonna be a bet I made when I was in Boston last week. And it's just plus 125 is like not enough value.

Kind of think it is.

I wanted that to be in the plus 150 range. All right. The weirdest over-under of the entire 2-part podcast, the Detroit Pistons, 40 7.5. They're +145 for the division, 27-1 for the title, +850 to be the 1 seed again. They were 60-22 last year. The big question, Zach. Mm-hmm. A 60-win team kept their top 3. All of them are healthy and their over-under dropped 12.5 wins. What in the fuck just happened?

That's what happens when Tobias Harris leaves in free agency.

Is that it? It's a 12-win Tobias Harris departure.

I, I think the conference got really, really good. The playoffs left oddsmakers, I guess, unconvinced that this was actually a 60-win team and convinced that it was a little bit of a paper tiger in a tank-tastic year where they just racked up wins.

Yeah.

Against crap teams. And, and you know, probably, probably, maybe, probably would've lost in the first round of the playoffs if Franz Wagner didn't get hurt in the middle of that series against Orlando. And then you throw in the Jalen Duren thing.

That thing, which part, the contentious holdout or them telling him he was their 4th best player?

I don't believe— where did that come from? 'Cause I don't, I mean, I, even if you were doing that as a negotiating play, I couldn't figure out

who the 3

better than him were. I don't think you would just I don't picture anyone being like, hey, Jalen, just FYI, you're our 4th best player. And B, who's the 3rd best player?

Yeah.

I, it doesn't make any sense.

But it made the rounds for 2 days.

It doesn't make any sense. And so I don't believe that that really happened. Or I, or some like Pistons mid-level front office guy was like, you know what? I'm sick of this. I'm gonna tell you what I really think, Jalen Duren. And then, you know, deeper conference, all that. The line falls to where it falls.

I am worried they lost too much toughness, House. I love Beef Stew on this team. I'm not sure what happened. Clearly they felt like it was time to go, but I loved having him and I thought the combo of him and Durham was great. Tobias, I, I really enjoyed the Pistons the last couple years. Tobias, they went to him all the time. He was Cade backup playing for 2 straight years and got I thought pretty good shots in the playoffs, got good shots. It's something that San Antonio will probably tap into with him. So losing him and, and Beef Stew, I didn't like that at all. I didn't mind. I've never liked LeVert, so that's fine. John Collins, I watched on the Clippers last year and I just don't understand it, but the analytics like him, but, but eye test didn't really match it for me. Isaiah Joe, I've always kind of liked. Yeah. But I can't tell if You know, coming at like, is he just where he should be? Is he like a heat check guy every once in a while? And then Okorie, people like as a guard. But I guess the big thing for them with the over-under to beat this is if Thompson goes up a half level offensively, right?

That would be—

They have to have it.

That would be the X factor.

My question, my big question, who is going to help Cade Cunningham? It's the end of the game. They run every single thing through him. Who's gonna catch the ball and make a shot when these double teams—

They're worse off. I watched John Collins. It's not John Collins. I watched it last year.

I agree.

It's not Durham because it feels like teams unlocked how to stop him. It's not Thompson. Duncan Robinson going around screens. He, he wore down as the year went on last year. I have the same concern. I, I, I'm under. I can't believe I'm under, but I'm under. I think this is like a 45-win team.

John Collins from 3, the last 3 seasons, 37, 40, 41. That's all I want. I'm not handing the ball to John Collins to be like, go do stuff with the ball. All of these concerns are very legitimate concerns. This is a team that really tried to get Austin Reaves and thought they had a real shot at him down to the wire. Didn't get him. That was their cap space bullet. They know what they need. They still have all their picks and a bunch of tradable contracts to go out and get that player if they want to buy it. I think that's something you have to consider. with this number. All of these concerns were preexisting and they won 60 games last year and 7 playoff games. You can quibble with how they got there and what happens in the first round if Franz doesn't get hurt. So like none of that is new. I'm going over. Yeah. Because I think the floor of really good defense, tough rebounding, Cade, and some more shooting around him is just good enough in the regular season to get that many wins. And And I think we're over-indexing on Durant's failure in the playoffs.

Like, I think he'll be closer to the guy he was in the regular season in the regular season, which is what this is about.

So I have them at 45 because I think the East is so good. I was just basically subtracting 4 to 5 wins for a bunch of different teams.

Yeah.

And to me, this is a 50-win team last year that now I have to put at 45. But I really worry about, uh, the scoring beyond Cade. I thought Tobias was really important for them last year. And then the year before, our guy Malik Beasley—

I know—

was also important for them. They just had these wildcard scorers. And unless it's Isaiah Joe and I'm missing something, I don't know who the wildcard scorer is for this team.

Best record in the league above versus above .500 teams last year, Oklahoma City, 36-16. Spurs 35-15, Pistons 34-16.

Wow. Impressive.

They, they kicked ass in a regular season way. You know that they, I think they had the best record in the NBA on back-to-backs. I think they were something like 12-2 on back-to-backs

and played well without Cade.

And this is the regular season we're talking about. The conference being deeper, no question. I, I'm not saying they're gonna win 55 games. I'm just going over on 47.5. I think it's too low.

Yeah. And the number, it dropped too far because the number was 49.5. So I'm not sure what happened. I don't have an answer to the—

we know what happened.

Fair question that Zach asked. What, between 49.5, however, 3 weeks ago and 47.5?

The Thurman thing, I think freaked people out.

No, I'm not.

And he's coming back.

That's reading too much into it. I think Zach's absolutely right. We don't need to overdo that or whatever reaction we're gonna have.

What other reason would there be for the over-under to go down?

I don't know.

People, nothing. Nobody got hurt.

48 is a very reasonable number for them. I'm taking the, the over, even though I don't have an answer to the fair question. Zach posed, he posed it in the context of, of John Collins. They're not asking John Collins, here's the ball, go do something with it. Who is that guy? I don't have an answer. Here's the ball, guy that's not Cade Cunningham, go do something with it. No answer. But they are good enough to win 48.

I think they're hoping it's, I mean, you guys, you asked with Mobley different phases of his career, but is there another leap there? And you just saw Jaylen Brown take a, a very unusual, like late mid-career leap. I don't necessarily think there's a leap leap for Evan Mobley. I do expect continued, just he gets a little better at this. Yeah. A little better at that. And I think part of that process for Ausar Thompson—

That's the answer.

Is a little more on-ball stuff. Not like a mega leap where he's suddenly averaging 18 a game like his brother or whatever.

Yeah.

But enough of that when Cade is on the bench that that's part of the solution, not the whole solution.

Counter. Playoff teams were playing 5 feet off him in the playoffs.

It's the— that's the playoffs. I'm not like—

this is a— I'm not expecting any sort of offensive surge from him yet.

Okay.

I'm not a lot.

You're tempting me to lock this up because I'm—

Zach went over, I went over, you went under.

You know what?

F it. Lock it. Detroit over. I love it. I love it so much.

Detroit.

It's always good to make— it

always is good to make decisions when you're irrationally upset about something.

Zach, Detroit basketball.

I like it. I could see it. Listen, these— there's 5 teams who are all in this over-under range of 45 to 48, and we're gonna be wrong about one of 'em.

Yep.

My biggest fear going under for them is what you laid out before, Zach, about the trade possibilities. And, you know, Mahoney threw this out last week on my pod, and I've, I've heard it other places too, but Could this be a Kyrie team and what would that look like? Because they have a Corey to put in the trade, they have contracts to put in a trade. Like, there— it actually is a nice match. And could Cade and Kyrie together—

that's kind of interesting—

would be kind of nice.

Stay with your under. Don't, don't— I'm staying with your under. Own it, eat it. And I'm locking in my over.

Locked it.

All right, I want you to buckle up, but then also put the strap over the shoulder buckle up. The double buckle up.

This is— you're telling people to buckle up.

The roller coaster buckle up.

Double, double. Yeah.

It's a roller coaster buckle.

Indiana Pacers, 44.5. They're +290 for the division, 15-1 for the conference, 40-1 for the title, -185 for the playoffs to be the 1 seed. I have this in bold, Joe House.

Yeah.

18-1. They were 19-63 last year and were 6-24 in the last 30 games. And yet in their last 63 games, including the playoffs in 2025 with a healthy Tyrese Haliburton, they're 42-21. They're 11 deep. They have proven identity. They have a franchise star who's back. They have added Zubac. Zubac. They added Kelly Oubre. They didn't lose anybody. The big question, Joe House, why isn't this the sleeper in either conference?

Well, I think it is. And it, oh, it was the very first bet that I made as soon as the win totals came out. It opened at 43.5. Oh, I took an uncomfortable amount of money and put it down on that. I'm, I'm somewhat surprised to see it only climb by the one game to 44.5. I think everybody is, you know, trying to figure all of these teams in this class that you're describing here. What, how, if you give Indiana a giant bump, what are you going to do with the Toronto Raptors? And what are you going to do with Atlanta? And what are you going to do with Detroit? If you give Indiana this enormous leap back up into the upper 40s, maybe low 50s, how do you— Mm-hmm. You know, navigate that. And especially if the East is as tough as we think, I don't give a fuck. This team is absolutely loaded. I think that they were very intentional with the way that they played out last year in every respect, except for the forever befuddling decision to not protect all the way through 5 in terms of, of the, the pick they got for Zu.

Other than that, they're, they're, they're right for it. The only— I

mean, goddamn, if they had gotten— if they had kept that pick too on top of everything.

Goddamn. They couldn't protect it. They couldn't protect it.

Well, what happened happened. And the bottom line is they have Zu on this team who I thought was better 2 years ago than he was last year before he got traded. But I also think he was hurt.

Fair enough.

I think you desperately need somebody like that in the East. And look, They, you know, Hal Burton comes back, the league's trying to build these stars. They have his first game is against New Orleans. It's not on national TV, anything like that. It's just on League Pass. And I think it's, I think they're just adding it to the fuck you file. I think the Pacers have a giant fuck you file. I think they're mad that they didn't win the title. I think they all feel like they would've if Hal Burton hadn't gotten hurt. And I think they're being discounted this year in every conceivable way. They're not being mentioned at all. I'll tell you this before we get to Zach's take. I have the Knicks or the Pacers, whoever wins that series makes the finals.

There you go.

And I'm gonna—

bang.

I'm gonna decide on Tuesday, but I think the Pacers are really scary. And, and I don't care that Haliburton missed all last year. I think they're gonna be really good. This is an absolute unequivocal lock over 44.5 for me. What do you have, Zach?

Well, I can tell you 3 guys who are not gonna be in the fuck you files of the Indiana Pacers, and it's us because I'm also going over. And House explained very articulately why I went slightly unhappy unders on the Knicks and the Celtics. I'm not the Celtics. I went over on the Celtics, the Knicks, and the Sixers because I'm this whole batch of teams I'm going over now. I'm going, I'm gonna zag a little bit because I'm not that optimistic as you guys are about Indiana's regular season win total, mostly because I've seen Tyrese Halliburton play a preseason game and he looked pretty good. I, I do expect some ups and downs as he comes back from an Achilles injury.

By the way, he had ups and downs when he was good. He did. Even regular season, he would kind of go up and down a tiny bit.

And the year they made— 2 years ago when they made the Finals, I believe they won 50 games. Nembhard and Neesmith were both injured for a large part of— they, they were like .500 after Yeah. 30 games or something, and they then they hit a— so I do think they're going to be over. I do wonder if like you guys are being a little too enthusiastic about their regular season fortunes. But yeah, if they get to the playoffs and they've found that vibe that they had, that rhythm that they had, they are extremely dangerous. And nothing about what they did in the playoffs was fluky, even though it involved the greatest run of crunch-time shot-making probably in the history of basketball by Tyrese Halliburton. I will go over though.

I have them at, I'm looking it up, 52 wins.

Yeah. I'm not surprised to hear it. I, I am going to bet them at +290 to win the division. So that's why, you know, Cleveland to win the division at +125 doesn't move, move you. You have to have something on the Pacers to win the division.

I'm thinking more like 47.

Yeah.

48.

Yeah.

That's fine.

It is.

+290 for the division. I like that one.

You have to have a small ticket on it if your, if your ceiling is 52.

I'll say this too, other than the Knicks starting 5, I think this is easily my favorite starting 5 in the East. Zubac, Siakam, Neesmith, Nembhard, and Haliburton. That checks all the boxes for me.

I love that starting 5. It's a basketball team.

That is like a Bill Simmons basketball team right there.

It's literally why I have the Raptors at 46. Knicks. I trust this team so much more than I trust the Raptors. I mean, the Raptors are— I— we was a nice story last season, 2-22 against the really good solid team in the league. I'll take Rick Carlisle and this group that made it to the NBA Finals 2 years ago.

I asked them—

6 are starting 5 with like a little bit of a word though, Bill.

Well, but I don't— how many times are we gonna see it over the course of a season? I know with the 5 guys I mentioned, I'm gonna see them for 6 months. I like the bench too. I still like— I like the Huff Toppin combo. I feel like I do. I, I think that's, that's the name. Like, Zubats isn't playing tonight. Oh, we're gonna play Jay Huff. It's like, okay, Jay Huff's fine.

It sounded like you— it's— you pop— you sound like you pop in the oven for, for dinner. Like, anyone want a little Huff Toppin tonight?

You know what it's like? He's

like, Huff Toppin is phenomenal.

That's a Stouffer's French bread pizza in the, in the freezer. I have a backup.

I demand— can I make a, a, a, um a small entreaty to this group. Can we please get Jay Huff into the dunk contest this upcoming year? Yes. Jay Huff wants to be in the goddamn dunk contest. Wait till you see him pregame, what he, what he's capable of. This is an acrobatic as all get out 7-footer. He has them all. He has every dunk. He does them in pregame. He goes around, he's just, you know, getting them off. He's a great 3-point shooter. The Huff element on the bench, I don't want to overdo his role in terms of this team, But get Jay Huff into the dunk contest, please.

Can either of you name the winner of last year's dunk contest?

No chance. No,

I can't.

No chance.

I believe it was Kashad Johnson from the Miami Heat.

I would be able to name the winner of the white guy slam dunk contest if they did that.

Well, Jay Huff is— Jay Huff would be Jay Huff. The odds-on favorite.

And I'll say with Oubre, who I think is a little bit of a punching bag sometimes, and he's bounced around and like Golden State, it didn't work there. And, you know, he's had a lot of cups of coffee in a lot of places. I thought he was really good in the Celtics series. I think he was, he really defended Jalen well. And, and I thought he was impactful. Like that guy,

the toughness,

he's a playoff rotation guy. You maybe don't wanna play him 30 minutes a game. Obviously TJ is, is still there. As you know, Zach, I've always loved Jaris Walker. Still waiting for him to have his moment. And I really like Shepard. I think Shepard's good. Well,

I'll forever have a soft spot in my heart for Shepard because I had great seats for a Wizards-Pacers game last season, and we were there early enough for shootaround, and Ben Shepard rolled the ball to my kid and let him take a shot from the sideline.

Oh, look at that. Ben Shepard.

Bad mother. I love that too.

So are you locking this down?

Locked. It's a lock. It's a lock.

No lock for me. No lock for me.

No lock for you?

No lock for me. Sorry.

You know what else is great about rooting for the Pacers? It's— this is a team that was in Game 7 of the NBA Finals and their best player blew out his Achilles on the court. And if you can't root for that team to find redemption in some way, I don't— you don't have a soul and a heart.

Interesting. You're giving me, you're giving me a much different version of like 2014 Spurs who were on another level as a regular season team, but like Like the, they use the ultimate heartbreak from the previous year's finals as, as fuel. I like this.

Yeah, I, I'm all in on Indiana. I think they're gonna be really good. And I think anecdotally, I think within the league, I think that's, this is the team the other players are kind of, kind of wanna see what happens with this team.

Sure.

From an upside standpoint.

Because, 'cause Tyrese has that respect.

Yeah. Chicago Bulls over-under 29.5, probably the best placed over-under of this entire podcast. Just perfect. You could just debate whether they're gonna win 29 or 30 for 5 hours straight. 10-1 to make the playoffs. Last 30 games last year, they were 7-23. They finished 31-51 overall. New coach, Tiago Splitter. They lost Anfernee Simons. They added Caleb Wilson, Nick Claxton, and Norm Powell, and have one of those starting fives that on paper is kind of delightful. Um, big question, Zach. What is the highest possible ceiling of a Caleb Wilson rookie season for you? And have you watched him? Have you done any work on him yet?

Oh yeah.

What,

um,

in your head, what is he?

I mean, the highest possible ceiling is Rookie of the Year for sure. Um, yeah.

What do the stats look like?

21, 8, and 5. I think the shooting efficiency will be a little iffy. But defensively, I mean, he and Boeselis have a chance to combine for 4 blocks a game as forwards, which is pretty rare.

There's like a little chemistry thing going on with them already too. Yeah. I think those guys are like, let's, let's fucking roll for the next couple years here.

Let's run. We just get to run. We're gonna run. Everyone's— Giddey's gonna push the ball up the court. Norm's gonna sprint to the 3-point line. We're gonna run the wings that they're built to. This team is built to absolutely fly, which is how they played last year and how Splitters team played in Portland too.

It's shocking that a team that's been as completely incompetent as the Bulls— now they have a new front office, but the GM they had I think was in the running for one of the worst of the last 10 years. But really smart moves across the board, right? Nick Claxton, who I don't love, but if he's going to be on a team, you'd want him on a team like this that's going to fly up and down. Powell, who maybe could take or leave on certain teams— on this team, they're probably going to be running offense for him at the end of games, which he loves. And then, uh, Caleb going to this particular city that has been dying for really anything. And, uh, I said this to House, and House made a groaning noise like he does when a Porterhouse comes out. Caleb Wilson genuinely reminds me of T-Mac.

Yeah,

I, I feel like he's taller T-Mac. At UNC, and it was just like, is he KG? What is he? And he's all pieces of different things and And there's gonna be pieces of different players, but he reminds me of T-Mac that last Raptors year when we started to wonder if there was a little more there. It's like, oh, maybe he's not Scottie Pippen. What is this? But he's taller than T-Mac. And I, I just think his stroke on the 3 is, is so pure that I think he's gonna shoot way more 3s than I expected. So anyway, I'm all in on him.

Why, why wouldn't he shoot? Why wouldn't he do whatever the hell he wants? Yeah. He's the future of the franchise. They're not going anywhere this year. But it's interesting because I remember during the draft you would hear scouts be like, well, he's a 4. He's going to do big man stuff in the league. And then people around him kind of pushed back and said, no, he's going to be like a big wing who handles the ball. Yeah. And it looks like he's trending already much more toward that kind of player with the size and athleticism and shot blocking and rim protection of a big man. All the, all the intrigue is, is well deserved and merited.

So I went under because of how good the conference is and because I think this team will be incentivized to be a 4 to 10 team. I don't think they have— there's 11 teams in the East that all think they can win 45 games and up, and we have 10 playoff spots, and the, the Bulls are not gonna be a playoff team. So at some point they're gonna have to look at each other and be like, all right, let's, let's make sure we don't drop into the bottom 3, but we're right around this 4, 5, 6, 7 range. And then add one more piece to what they have. I don't love their bench either. Yeah. It's just a poo-poo platter of guys that other teams didn't want. Buddy Hield, who's now been on every team in the league. Zach Collins, Okoro, Jalen Smith, I'm just not a huge fan.

Patrick Williams is still on the team.

So this is like—

I like Jalen Smith as a backup 5. I think he and Trey Jones are a really good 6 and 7 off the bench. Um, after that, it's, it's a—

I can't get excited.

Leonard Miller, if Leonard Miller, if this preseason thing is real, that's kind of interesting, uh, to say the least. So, you know, I like their bench. After that, it's a, it's a giant question mark for sure.

Under for me. What do you have?

Under also. And again, surprised that I'm going under on the bottom feeders in the East because, you know, again, the tanking rules are supposed to go the other way, but they also have high sell trade potential with like a Norm Powell, Nick Claxton kind of deal.

Yes.

I just think young and exciting is also often like young and bad. Like defensively, I think they're gonna be pretty bad shooting-wise. They're gonna be iffy. So I think we're all excited to watch them, but that doesn't mean they're going to win 30 games.

They're gonna have 4 games this year where we're like, San Antonio lost in Chicago. They'll have 4 of those and that'll be, and then their fans will love the 2 guys. And Splitter, I thought Splitter did a nice job with Portland last year. So

yeah,

it's just the East is too good.

It makes more sense for them to do exactly what, what Zach just observed, which is Powell and Claxton. Those are valuable players for some of these teams that are missing stuff. like the Sixers.

I'm not a sold-on Claxton.

Well, I'm just saying there are teams that are gonna need a backup, you know, they're gonna need, need good bodies at some point. And Powell, I, I just, I'm surprised there wasn't a bigger market for him, but he makes sense on a different team. They finished the last season 25th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating. Those numbers aren't gonna really improve. They're not gonna be in expect— especially on the defensive side. But super fun to watch. It's an under for me.

I like Norm Powell. So I said that pointing out that I like Norm Powell and I enjoyed having him on the Clippers. I do think he's a 2-name guy where if you ask teams he's been on, like, what'd you think of Norm Powell? It was like, well, you know, Norm's Norm. I think he's a, I think he's a 2-namer.

I couldn't remember in your lexicon what a 2-name guy was.

Yeah. You know, Norm, Norm's Norm. He's

just, I didn't know if that Yeah, I didn't know if that meant you had to say his full name when referencing him, or now I know what it is. So now I'm going to start thinking of 2-name guys in my life. Okay.

How is Zach's writing thing going again? Well, you know Zach Zach. He seems happy.

You compared me to Porzingis yesterday in terms of my availability, my finger's availability.

That was a joke. That was a joke on text.

Hurt me.

Oh boy, put your seatbelt on again. We've got the Milwaukee Bucks at 25.5.

No, I'm gonna cruise. I'm gonna cruise. I'm gonna park, take the seatbelt off, and lay back in the— take a little nap in the seat.

They are 20-to-1 to make the playoffs. They went 32-50 last year. None of their other odds matter. They don't have their first-round pick. It's going to either New Orleans or Atlanta. Taylor Jenkins is their new coach. They lost Bobby Portis and the entire Antetokounmpo family. They added Tyler Herro, Brandon Burridge, Jaime Jaquez, Khalil Ware, Caris LeVert for some reason. They willingly acquired Caris LeVert. I still don't understand that. And Nate Ayman. Congrats on all those. Um, My big question, Zach, was not trading Giannis in the summer of 2025 the single biggest mistake anyone has made this decade, with the exception of the Luka trade?

I'd have to go back and think, what would the offers have been then? Who else would've been— I mean, obviously tons of people would've been engaged. Maybe even earlier than that. I mean, obviously they waited too long and it became this just endless soap opera where we all knew how it was going to end, and then it ended and they got an

Well,

just don't forget

about the other part. Instead of trading him, what did they do? They stretched Dame.

Oh, well,

and added the Myles Turner contract. So it was like a— it was a double murder house.

A triple. That was a triple homicide.

It was a triple homicide. We gotta get Briscoe Hargitay here. She's like, ah, I'm at Jimmy Haslam's house. There's 3 bodies.

Dame is the 3rd highest paid Buck this year.

There you go. Dead body.

So he could have been an expiring for them this year and maybe some flexibility.

He's a, he's a body in the vacance.

Do things. The only other big mistakes I had in the vicinity, and I don't think it's as bad as the 2 I mentioned, the Lakers Westbrook trade where they also had to get rid of Caruso and a couple of the other guys.

Yeah.

Philadelphia not getting Haliburton for Simmons. I'll never forgive them for that. Phoenix's KD trade, just throwing in literally everything. And then it seems to be true that Golden State could have had Caruso for Kuminga in like '23, and I still can't believe they didn't do that. So that—

I remember, I remember a lot of Caruso buzz.

Next question's for House. Okay. Is this the bleakest situation in the league? You have no pick this year. You have a swap next year with Portland. In 2029, you don't have a first-round pick. Everyone on your team is a trade machine candidate except Burris and maybe Amen. Milwaukee is all about the Brewers and the Packers right now, especially the Brewers. The Trent Turner-Lillard decisions, a full-cap catastrophe.

The fact that they have to go put on a case and defend the Gary Trent. That's kind of the just reward. That, that is a type of justice for the mismanagement of this franchise over the last half decade.

And on top of all this, if Giannis is really good in Miami, there's gonna be that too.

Well, he is gonna be good in Miami. I mean, if he plays. I don't think— yeah, I think he's gonna play.

So is there a bleaker situation?

No.

Would you rather be a fan of every other team in the league than the Milwaukee Bucks?

You could. The Clippers are the only rival for this.

I was going to say, I can think of one that's perhaps in contention for sheer— I have to go to parties, be like, yeah, I don't know. My dad's a Clippers fan, so I became one. I know it's—

Yeah. And it's with the Bucks you won the title in '21. Yeah. Clippers are worse. All right. So they're maybe number 2.

Kings?

I think Kings, there's so much comedy and tragedy that it just keeps you on your toes.

I feel like the Kings are closer to a turnaround. Like, we're at the very, very beginning with this Bucks team. We're so far away from understanding.

Kings Reddit. I go to Kings Reddit. I don't go to a lot of Reddits. Kings Reddit, for comedy's sake, when something bad happens, is one of the funniest places on the internet. All of them are stand-up comedians at this point. It's like, what? Alan Alda said in Crimes and Misdemeanors, tragedy is comedy plus time. That's the entire Kings Reddit.

What are the Kings turning around toward?

I don't know. I don't have a good answer for that.

At least you get to watch Acuff run pick and roll with Sabonis. That's fun.

That's it. That's

it. With the Bucks, like, at least you get Burris and at least maybe— I love Burris, man.

We all do. I absolutely love—

I just can't believe what a— what a— what a— I can't say what I was gonna say.

There's guys, there's guys I can't sell you on. Here's a little Usman Jeng most improved player stock. I can't sell you on Jaime Hockenson Jr., who I would've voted Sixth Man of the Year last year. Khalil Ware. I'm pretty, I'm pretty high on Khalil Ware.

I can't be so good.

Those are all bodies.

No, that is a, that is a return to sender.

Return to sender? Khalil Ware?

Yeah.

Ryan Rollins is legit good.

He's

good. Yeah.

You're returning Khalil Ware to sender.

I'm not a fan.

He's a, he's the great disappearing act.

I saw him in person. I might've even been with House.

We, we, we definitely went to a Heat-Celtics game. Went to a Heat

game where I I forgot he played, and then he came in with 5 minutes left and I was like, did he play? And he played like 20 minutes. We didn't even notice him. Um, Zach, will you rank the trade machine guys for me on this team? I'll give you Turner, Herro, Jaquez, and Ware. Rank them 1 to 4.

In terms of most value?

No, for how likely they are to be traded by February.

Turner, Herro, Jaquez, Ware. 1. All right, I'll go 4 Ware, 3 Turner— no, 3 Hockens, 2 Turner, 1 Herro is most likely to be traded.

And Herro, this is— see, I might have to change my Pistons pick. That's the Piston.

Oh, okay.

No, you can't. No,

no, I'm not. I'm gonna keep it. I'm gonna keep it. I'm gonna honor it. But Herro is the Pistons move.

It's a great move.

That's a classic ad that would be perfect for them. Now I don't have to worry about Cade just having to run every single fucking play for 2 hours. You know,

you really have to have a sit-down with Herro though. Like, please just show a tiny bit of discipline. 4 minutes left in the game. You do not have to take 2 dribbles and shoot. Please don't do that.

There's not a lot of guys who've averaged 20 a game for like 5 straight years.

Tyler Herro's good.

Yeah, he's

good. And I, I just, I, the reason I would rank him number 1 is obviously the expiring, but also like the Bucks just being in this position of it doesn't really make any sense for us to splurge on the kind of extension that you, Tyler Herro, want.

Right. And they're a 4 to 10 team. Well, I'm an under, guys. What do you got?

Under.

Definitely under.

Now I will say, can we pause for a second? Are you at all concerned that so far we are under on all the bad East teams, 'cause I, that made me pause as I did this and I was able to justify it team by team and by going under on some of the ones at the top. But I, I, this will be interesting to see if these teams are really this bad.

So I sketched out all the wins to make sure all my wins added up both ways. This is a Cousin Sal trick 'cause he's a psychopath. And I had Chicago at 26 wins, Brooklyn at 21, and Milwaukee at 21.

Okay.

So that is basically a -55 for those 3 teams. So now you have to just make up— allocate

the wins,

the +55 going the other way, and you can figure out how to add it up. But there's some— the South is where there's some— in the old documentary parlance, you have to kill some babies. The documentaries, you make a 3-hour documentary and you have to cut it down to 2. There's just scenes you got to cut.

Yep.

And I feel that way about a couple of those South teams. I'm just like, oh man, I hate doing this, but I gotta. All right, so we're all under on all those. We're gonna come back with, I think, the hardest to figure out division in the entire NBA. The whatever the hell, the South— is it Southeast? It is the Southeast.

Yes, it's the Southeast.

And then we also get House's, um, Washington Wizards scouting report, a tradition of the Over/Unders. That is, uh, next. All right, last division. We made it. The Orlando Magic at 43.5, an insulting over-under for them. They were 45-37 last year and they got a new coach, Sean Sweeney. They're +250 for the division, +41 for the title, -165 for the playoffs. The big question, Zach Lowe.

Yeah.

When will we officially figure out if Paolo and Franz make sense together? And is it this season?

Oh, it's by February. We're going to know. It's like, unless one of them, as seems to happen every year, game 10 of the season, there's some sort of fluke injury in there. We now have 30 more games of no data. But yeah, I think this is the year the rubber meets the road. You're seeing it with Anthony Black not having an extension yet. The team is just too expensive. has too many pieces making too much money, is gonna have to make some painful decisions if this doesn't all click into place. And the over-under is really hard, very firmly suggesting it is not going to click all into place.

And yet they do have a smarter coach, defensive specialist, but I think really, really respected. And I feel like that's gonna be worth a couple wins, House.

I agree.

Neither of us were Mosley guys. So my big questions are, what if this isn't right with the new coach? And then is Franz gonna make it through a season? Would be my, my 2 big things. I don't mind their bench. I thought Bain was actually pretty good last year. Do you feel like they regret the Bain trade, Zach? If you could do the go back in time 2 years?

Yes. I think you have to based on not, he's played Fine. He's been Desmond Bane. It just kind of over—

Underestimating the second apron and how dangerous a trade like that was for them, I think would be the regret, right?

Yeah. You only have so many of those kind of bullets to throw. I, I'm a little more worried about their bench than you are. I mean, I like Anthony Black a lot after that. Da Silva's all right, but Taze's all right. Jace Richardson's been showing himself in the preseason, so that's all right. It's fine.

Yeah, it's fine. It's a C+ bench. House, where are you looking?

Over.

Okay.

Yeah, I think that this team, especially Bain— I, I watched Bain take nights off last year. I mean, there was— and then it was some combination of something going on with that coaching staff and something going on with Paulo and something going on with Bain. Like, they were not all on the same page, and it happened like quickly. It happened early in the season. And it is always with this Orlando team. Can those guys— can Suggs— can they all be healthy for 50 games? Can they— all of those guys be healthy so we can see for sure what this looks like? The playoff run was kind of, you know, okay, good. They give a shit. That's great to see. It's great to see Paolo actually out there. You know, they, they gave everything they had. to Detroit. And I do adhere to what you advanced earlier, which is they would've beat Detroit if, if Franz hadn't gone out. I mean, Franz was, is a secret sauce. They've paid him to be a secret sauce. I just think that the entire framework of how they approach basketball is gonna be changed. Now, I'm over-indexing on Sean Sweeney, left hand up.

I'm saying it right now. I think it's going to be a revelation, and I think they're gonna be really good. There's no reason for them to drop out of the top 10 defensively. And they are not, they haven't been in I don't know how long, a top half of the league offense with the talent they have. That doesn't make any sense. So I think Sweeney and who he brings along with him, what they install, it's gonna be effective. I like this Orlando team. It's an over for me.

15-1 on FanDuel for Coach of the Year, Sean Sweeney. I'd like to echo House's thoughts. This seemed like an unhappy, disjointed team last year that wasn't well coached and kind of survived based on how much talent they had. The Suggs season was weird. I don't know what happened to his 3-point shooting. I thought his playoff performance and just the heat checks over and over again when he couldn't make a shot was just bizarre, but also a sign that maybe you don't have a great coaching staff and a good, whatever, in place. And, uh, I'm bullish on the talent. I really do like their starting 5. I, I'm actually going over. I think, I think they're in the mid-40s somewhere, and I don't think, even though the conference is tougher, I think they had the year from hell last year. So I'm a little more bullish on them, I think, than, than the majority or the minority.

I mean, we, we barely saw the starting 5 because of all the injuries. On paper, I agree with you, like, it's an easy over. There's just too much talent here, even in the beefed-up East, for this to be basically a .500 team. Given what they've done when they've been healthy-ish, they tend to win more games than this. And so I'm, I'm going, I'm going over. I, I'm not emphatic about it, but I'm going over. I will say that this would be a team that if it's not going well, you could see an in-season pivot in some crazy direction that messes all, all this up. But I, I, I think there's just too much talent. New coach. Over.

I didn't— somehow this isn't in my notes. They have their pick this year or they don't?

I will check now, but they're, they're pretty picked and swapped out.

I think— I don't think they have it. Hold on, I'm looking too.

Uh, they do have their pick this year.

Yeah, they do have it. Okay.

The one thing to observe—

So they could go in the 4 to 10 range if it goes badly.

You remember we were doing Orlando this time last year, the 3 of us here in Los Angeles, California?

We love them.

And it was supposed to be like 50 wins for this team.

Yeah.

Well, absolutely nothing's changed except for the head coach and it's 43.5 now.

I lock, I think I had a, I had them as an over lock last year, which didn't go great.

Wasn't really your fault. They kept, kept getting hurt.

I'm an over too. I can't lock it because I'm not positive Franz and Palo like are both gonna be on the team in February. We'll see what happens. But I do like the coaching hire and, uh, and I think this team should be good. Miami, I accidentally skipped them. Their over-under is now 44.5. Division +155, conference 11-1, title 30-1, playoffs -250, play-in +160. 1 seed 11-1 if you want to get excited about that. Last year they were 43-39. They added Giannis and the rest of the Antetokounmpo family. Antetokounmpo family. They added Bobby Portis. They added Tim Hardaway Jr. They added the artist formerly known as Klay Thompson, who might be painting again. We'll see.

He's got a boat, a place to park his boat.

They lost Herro, Powell, Jaquez, and Ware. who were like 4 of their best 6 guys.

You just said Ware, return to sender. Now he's 4, one of their 6 best guys.

On paper, he's one of their 6 best guys. The big question, if I could find it, can he get one great year outta Giannis, Zach Lowe? Just one. Just give us one great year.

If you can't, you're really up a creek because you, you made the trade suggesting you should get 3 or 4 really good years to great years outta Giannis. Yeah, of course you can.

I mean, great year. Like, he's an MVP candidate the entire year. He's 30-11.

Yes.

He plays, I mean, 68 to 70 games.

Look, I don't think anyone is an MVP candidate. I think Luka is the only one that can still crack the top 3. Other than that, we're talking about like, are you in the conversation? Which is code for like, could you get 4th or 5th? I think that's where Giannis could get. I don't see him leaping over Shai. Jokic.

So they won like 52 games and he was 30 and 11 and played 72 games and got, you know, rejuvenated the franchise basically. You don't even think he's in that convo? 'Cause I think he would be.

I think he could get in the conversation, but I, those 3 guys are so good that you can make up whatever stats you want to make up for them and they're going to rival whatever line you just gave out for Giannis and their team might win more games, will win more games in most cases.

I gotta ask, if Giannis crashed the '27 Finals, what would that do for his legacy?

Oh, it's been a while since the L word came up.

I only allowed one legacy segment in each part. How would his legacy shift, Zach?

Uh, it would be a legacy changer for him. Um, and we've seen in the Finals, if you get there, you don't know what's gonna happen. It's not so predictable. So I, I mean, look, Look, he hasn't had a real playoff run since the title win, and that hasn't been— that's been injuries. That's been injuries to him. It's been injuries to Khris Middleton. It's been other stuff. So yeah, I mean, he is in need of a late career resurgence in the postseason. And I think, you know, there was no perfect spot for him in that regard, given how much you have to give up to get him. But I, I'm an over on the Heat. I am gonna lock the over. On the Heat. I think this line is too low. If Giannis plays 65 to 70 games, I just think they're, they're just better than this. If he doesn't, obviously I will go bust on this, but I'm going over lock.

I have Giannis 20th in the pyramid right now.

Wow. Kind of makes sense.

It's right behind Dirk Nowitzki.

He needs to get to another Finals.

He's right behind Bob Pettit as well, who just passed away. Sadly forgot to do a Bob Pettit thing on my podcast. House, where are you on the Miami Heat?

It's an over. I mean, they, this is out of respect for Spoelstra, out of respect for the franchise. The starting 5, I absolutely trust is gonna be 43 wins out of the, the poo-poo platter that was the roster that we just went through last year for this. That's just Spo. That's just this Miami team showing up with institutional smarts and continuity and planning. For sure, they had— they reaped the benefit of beating up on the bottom dwellers in the East. But I think Giannis, you want this refreshed, ready-to-go dominate version of Giannis with this, this group of players I think are very complementary. It was an easy over for me.

Here it comes. Here it comes. You want to do it?

I, I did all my Giannis content over and over again during the interminably long Giannis trade saga, including some of the season 14 or later stuff with big guys and how Moses was the only guy ever to average 20-10 in 50+ games. How only LeBron and Mailman averaged 20-10 in 7+ playoff games. Age 32 guys, we haven't had a 24-10 from an age 32 guy in 28 years. Playoffs 2010 for 12+ games. Mailman, Hakeem, Hayes, Kareem, and LeBron. That's it. And I was under for most of the summer. But I, I've been, been really impressed by everything I'm reading and seeing. Defensively, they should be a top 5 team. Offensively, they have to replace the 3s that they lost with Harrow and Powell, but Detroit made 11 3s a game last year and won 60 games. So I'm not that worried about that. I do like the Portis part. I didn't love the Klay signing, but I get why they did it. I like Fontecchio, as you know. Wiggins should be able to handle the swings. Bam Giannis is gonna be clumsy, but I think the defense will overcorrect for that. But I like everything I'm reading with the chemistry and stuff, and I do feel like this is gonna be— the more I stare at it and look at it from afar and kind of dread the Heat being good again.

It just feels like they're gonna get one really good Giannis year here. And I don't know if it's gonna be more than one, but they're gonna get a rejuvenated guy who's ready to like reclaim something. And along with the coaching staff and everything else, I just, I don't see how this team's not in the high 40s if, unless Giannis gets hurt again. So I'm not locking it down, but the safe bet if we're doing this, which is how we should be approaching every team, is that this team should win 48 to 52 games. Yeah. games. So I'm over.

You didn't enjoy that, did you?

I didn't.

He said all summer he was down on him, down on him, down on him. We didn't even mention Pelle Larsson. Does he think that that guy— I

thought that contract was aggressive. Um, not as aggressive as the Jović contract, which was just inexplicable as it happened, but at least Pelle Larsson, watching him last year, He's, he was pretty good. But listen,

no locks. We're all overs. No, I'm the only lock. And by the way,

I'm only doing it with the health stuff with Giannis.

I'm only locking it 'cause I'm, I'm, we need a requisite amount of locks per person. I'm a little short on locks, so I need to load up my Eastern Conference locks.

I might, by the end of the pod, I might change my mind on whether that's a lock or not for me. But you know, it goes back to what you said earlier when we were talking about with Dallas, with Flag and, and Klay together. And it's like, you know, it's really nice having 2 of the best 30 guys in the league every night, night after night. I have no idea if they're gonna fit together. I think the offense is gonna be really clumsy, but I also, if a coach is gonna figure it out, they have one of the 4 or 5 guys who could unlock it. But I think he's gonna, I think he's gonna have a real energy to him and I like everything I've heard from him. So 3 overs. This was in the running for hardest one. The Atlanta Hawks, 43.5. Play-in +135, playoffs -170, 40 to 1 to win the title there. 46-36 last year, 21-9 last 30. Big question, House. They feel like they're one move away. What's the move? Does it need to be this season? Can they wait?

Hmm. Well, I, I loved the Dort and the Wiggins moves, so that's— those were the moves, I think. I mean, this team, you have to make a decision about the last 30 games of last year. How real was that? Do you believe that that's really what this team is capable of? Is that a good reflection of the ceiling for this Hawks team? They're still young. They still can put, you know, defensively, is there another level to them? They finished inside the top 10 in defensive rating. That includes a big chunk of the season that Trae Young was on the team and then, and not playing.

And it was awkward.

Yes. And they were even inside the top half of the league in offensive rating. So where is there a ceiling coming from exactly? I, I, I—

Yeah, they won 46 in a league where 30% of the league tanked the last 11 weeks of the season.

43.5 is just too low. I, I, Don't want to get too aggressive with it, but I really like what they did in the offseason and they still have a ton of assets. They have moves to make. And I think that there's another level to Jalen Johnson. Like we're going to start having some All-NBA conversations, you know, more, more not start, but additional All-NBA conversations around Jalen Johnson. So I'm over with this Hawks team.

They lost Reserche and Buddy Hield. They added Lou Dort, Kingston Flemings, and Aaron Wiggins.

It's very good additions.

So on roster, better.

I love their, um, GM too.

He's good. The Hawks are smart. I like everything they've done. I even thought Flemings was the right pick, even though I don't love taking a guard that high, but they had to take a swing at one of those guys. I like their bench. They're basically gonna have Dort, Wiggins, Flemings, Jacque Landale, Wilson, Ijeofor, Finney-Smith. Like, they, they have some depth. I just wonder if this is the team. Like, is this a team that could be in the cat sweepstakes if that ever happens? Is this a Trey Murphy team? Could this be a team that talked itself into Jamal Murray and said, you know, oh, we'll, we'll flip you McCollum and Daniels and we'll take Jamal backside. Like those kind of trades.

Mm-hmm.

Zach, are you under or— are you under or over? If I think you're under.

Yeah, I'm under.

I'm under as well, but I'm like, I could— I'm like a, I'm a hair under.

Under 43.5.

Yeah, I'm under. I have them at 42 or 43, somewhere in there.

I, I gotta have some unders in the East.

Me too.

And, um, and this, I think this is a fair line given that they beat a bunch of bad teams toward the end of last season. Yes, I know that they won twice against the Knicks and nobody else did. I just feel like the whole conference is gonna be so much better. And Dort's introduction, I, they have a lot of like equations to solve about their team and their style of play and what lineups don't have enough shooting and what lineups don't have enough defense and do they have enough rim protection and all that. I just feel like it's gonna take them a little while to find the right mix. I trust their bench a little bit less than you do, Bill. It's, it's young, it's, it's a little unproven. You

like Dorten Wiggins though.

I— Wiggins is good. Uh, you know, Edjaford, Newell, Moge is injured. Kispert always seems to fall in and out of the rotations. Landale's whatever. Finney-Smith couldn't— has been moved all around the league after a bad season in Houston. I am going a slight under on the Hawks.

I thought I was going over the entire offseason and even until last week, and something Doesn't feel right with this team. Like, and I agreed with all the moves they make and I liked all the assets they collected. So I'm not, it's not a criticism of the front office. I just, I don't understand how they're going to kind of figure out this stew of players and who's going to play, not play. Putting Dort on there, like Dort's going to kind of have to play in crunch time. So now who am I sitting? Am I sitting Dyson Daniels, who I gave $100 million to? Am I sitting Alexander Walker? I don't want to do that. I'm not sitting Jalen Johnson. So it's probably Daniels. And now does he go sideways? And then if I'm not sitting Daniels and I'm starting Daniels over Dort, do I lose Dort? Dort's like, I'm a fucking champion, 27 years old, I'm playing for a new contract. So you have that, you have Flemings who wants to play, and I don't know, there's some minute stuff that worry me with this team. All right, so 2 unders and an over for House.

Wow, 2 left. Charlotte Hornets. There's been some action on the under. It was, I think it was 39.5, House, down to 37.5 Charlotte.

Yep, yep, for sure.

Well, the third of their team is injured right now. That's why.

And that's why they were 29-11 in their last 40 games last year. Plus 170 for the playoffs, plus 150 for the play-in. They also have 3 firsts next, uh, next year. Their own pick, Miami top 14 protected, Dallas top 2 protected. And they could easily, if, if they don't like the way the season is going, ease into that 4-10 range. The big question, is it a bad sign or a good sign for the Hornets, Zach? That if I ran an NBA team, I would have played it exactly like the Hornets did the last 2 years. Every single move.

So this is about you. I'm judging you. Is

that a bad sign or a good sign for the Hornets and their fans that I completely agree with every single thing they did?

So you're all in on Christian Anderson and Hannes Steinbach?

I didn't love the Christian Anderson one, but Okorie, I would have liked more from them. I would've taken Phelan. So I guess I didn't completely agree because I would've taken Phelan.

I think it's, I think it's a good sign. I objectively, even as someone who likes LaMelo Ball, they clearly decided last year was semi not that real. And what we're being offered up for him, for Miles Bridges, is just too much to turn down. We'll take a slight step back to take a bigger step forward down the line, see what Brandon Miller can do. See what Conkanipal can do. In the meantime, we have like 13 decent rotation players. That's gonna be helpful in the regular season. So no, I don't think it's a bad sign.

The over-under says this is a team that's 6 wins worse than last year. If any of the top 10 fall, so there, that would make them team 11 in the East. If any of those top 10 teams fall out for some reason, they're ready to spring in. I would've, if they had been healthy going into this season, I would've gone over and I would've talked myself into bumping Orlando or one of these other ones. But they're not gonna be, doesn't sound like they're gonna have their team for like probably until early November, which puts us 3 weeks in. You could be like 2 and 8 at that point. Now I'm, now I'm already trying to climb back and I just have hard games every day. I, I just, I worry about it. But so they had lost LaMelo Bridges. Josh Green, Trey Mann. They added Naz, Grayson Allen, who I thought was a really sneaky one. O'Neal. I think Steinbach's gonna play right away for them 'cause he rebounds. Christian Anderson, we'll see. And then they got Schroeder 'cause of the rule that he has to be on every team in the league.

And, and, and Coby White, not in the offseason, but as the—

Right.

That's the replacement for LaMelo Ball, basically.

Yep.

And I think this could be a spoiler team in the second half, but I think that now they're one— like, let's say Khan goes down for a month, or Miller, on top of this first 3 weeks. They have no room for injur— for error with injury at all. And I think it's okay if they don't make the playoffs this year.

They didn't make the playoffs last year. They did make the play-in,

right?

That, that was the high watermark for LaMelo Ball. And

if they're in the 4 to 10 with a chance at one more awesome draft pick on top of all the other draft picks they have, That's where you want to be.

Yeah. And the nucleus is young. It's young enough. I mean, it's the observation Zach just made, which is a slight step back this season because you might really have something next season. And I think that's an easy enough thing to sell to the fan base. You don't want to rush anybody back. We're too early in this experiment. The only thing that gives me hesitation, any pause whatsoever, is it disrespectful to Charles Lee? Is it disrespectful to Charles Lee to say that this is not— this team won't win 38 games? Because Brandon, if Brandon Miller's healthy, he's another guy, another leap guy that has a whole nother sort of chapter. Like, to me, um, I'm taking the under on the notion that it does make more sense for them. They— the asset building has been very impressive. No reason to, to sort of stop that. bite down hard on anybody right now unless something crazy revealed itself in terms of the trade market during the season. I, I, 37 doesn't feel that disrespectful, so I'm taking the under.

The, the queasiness of taking the under is, is Charles Lee. It's like, hey, Coby White was pretty goddamn good for the last couple of years and now we're giving him spacing with Naz Reid as like a true spacing 4. that's a powerful potential offense. Maybe they're gonna miss LaMelo's playmaking and pull-up 3-point shooting defensively. We'll see if they can sustain what they did last year. And like, was the Moussa Diabaté thing 100% real? Or now people know like, all right, this guy's a menace on the glass. Like we really have to be ready for this guy. And is, is that center position between him and Kalkbrenner and whatever they do beyond that, is that quite enough?

Stand back.

I am going under. On Charlotte in a, in a stronger East this year.

Yeah.

Well, you knew I would do everything I possibly could to talk myself into the over despite the injuries to start the year. I kept coming back to this and it was something, it was a stat I gave in my podcast last week about how they made 16.2 threes a game last year, which led the league. The, their top 6 guys that they have this year, if you include Grayson Allen, Their top 6 guys would all average 16.2. And the thing I keep coming back to is if they're at 18 made threes a game just for the entire season, how is that team gonna go 37 and 45?

Well, someone's gotta create those threes, right? I mean, that was, that was a lot of LaMelo's passing last year that they don't quite have.

True.

They also have to have the making. The making is important. They, they shot the lights out last season.

They were incredible. On the other hand, Naz changes the team's entire spacing configuration and is a maker for sure. So yeah, I, I see the math.

I'm going just a whiff over.

You're allowed.

38-44, 39-43. I think they're the 11th team in the East. And what's interesting is down the stretch, if you know, it's like, oh shit, we're probably not even gonna make the play-in, we're 5 games behind the 10 seed or whatever, they're still gonna be incentivized to try to win games 'cause they're gonna be in that 4 to 10 range anyway. Who cares? So slight over. And then I wonder if there's a little bit of an overreaction to all the injuries where it's like, oh, you can't take them, they're injured. The price is better now. It's at a discount. This was 39.5 all summer.

Right.

And now I'm getting, and I, I might've gone under at the 39.5, but I'm gonna go over know. So plus we need to disagree. Okay, here we go.

It's like a, it's like a half under in, in spirit,

right? Yeah. It's just the injury stuff. If they have to wait 15 games or, or 20 games and they come out of the chute, you know, 5-13 because of that.

Buckle up again, 'cause we have arrived at the Washington Wizards, Joe Hass's favorite team. Their over-under is 34.5. 14-1 for the division, +310 for the playoffs, +220 for the play-in. Last year they were 3-27 in their last 30. It was a complete disgrace to basketball. 17-65 for the year. And the big question, House, how many games will Trae Young and Anthony Davis play together?

I have no goddamn idea.

What's your— what's your bet your life number? Zach hates when people bet their life.

I don't want to bet my life.

Bet your life.

Bet your life right now. Bet

your life.

Anthony Davis sat games out because of a banged up finger. Like, a guy who sits out because of finger injury, I don't want to bet my life on that.

We should mention, when Anthony Davis got voted into the NBA top 75 all time—

This is true. This is true.

House was so upset, he sent me a picture of all these candy bars that were all eaten. It was the wrappers of, like, Kit Kat bars.

It was a giant collection of the Halloween— yeah, it was maybe $100,000. $100 grand bars.

Yeah. And he was like, I'm so upset about this Anthony Davis thing. I ate all 5 of these candy bars and it was just the wrappers.

Did do it.

And now he's on your team.

I was grief eating. I was grief eating candy bars. Did upset me.

Playing for a contract, kind of Anthony Davis.

Not just kind of, he really is. He's really playing for a contract.

And honestly, he's playing for the player option he's gonna opt into next year, isn't he?

I expect him to, but it depends on, you know, who's giving Anthony Davis

$50 million a year next year. That would be insane.

I don't think it would be insane.

I have nothing to add.

Let's see.

Let's, he's 33 years old.

Let's see what happens over the next—

he's played 277 games since the 2020 Finals.

Doesn't seem like a lot.

45 a year.

Not optimal.

He's at 30K combined minutes, which is almost 20K less than KD. Trae Young's career stats are kind of fascinating to go through his Basketball Reference. It's like just averaging 25 and 10 for an entire career.

There aren't a lot of guys who've done that.

Yeah, it's impressive. So you added DiBanza, you added another one of your favorites, DeAndre

Ayton. At $8 million or $9 million, that's a valuable asset. Go around the league and look up backup centers across the league.

You had a Trey man as well. You had Carrington admit that the team didn't try last year.

That was great. I enjoy, I enjoy, I really enjoyed that.

He told the truth.

So you have Davis and Sar together, the Twin Towers, the Banta, George, who I like, Trae Young, Koulibaly, who is in the running for worst offensive player who actually takes shots in the league.

He's dying to, for an extension, dying for one.

Trae Johnson, did we like him last year at all or no?

It's impossible to have— No idea. Make any judgment about Trey Johnson.

Carrington. You loved Riley.

Yeah. Did love Riley.

I was gonna say, we're, we're, we're running into Will Riley.

Yes.

You have the other Champ Penny and,

and, and

they're— He's pretty good.

He's getting run.

Yes. You have the artist formerly known as Chris Middleton.

Another veteran presence in the locker room.

Yeah. So there's some—

He chose Washington. He didn't have to come back to Washington and he chose it.

What is the buzz on the city right now? Do you want to give us a little monologue?

It's an amazing moment in Washington. First of all, the hockey season started already. I guess they play 117 games in hockey now, and it started in September.

They upped it to 84.

No, really. I have no idea why the hell, but there are home hockey games. And so the Capitals have over the last 20-plus years been the dominant team of interest They sell out every single game. They've been the most consistent good team. And so you take that version of it, the stadium is going through a renovation, they're 2/3 of the way through. They decided to keep both the Wizards and the Caps in the city. Thank you to the Leonsis family. They threatened to go off to Virginia. And the city and the Monumental ownership group Seeing eye to eye. Every bit. It's a kumbaya moment, and it's great to go downtown and have the lively atmosphere. The buzz for this Washington Wizards team is through the roof. Do you understand that everybody anticipated that AJ DeBonsa was going to be the number 1 overall pick, and they still got 5,000 people to go to a theater downtown for the announcement, for the— for a draft party? I wish we were playing the Titanic music

right now.

What? And celebrate, because this is what happens when your team is fucking terrible for 10 years. It's a basketball city, Washington, DC, with a great history, a great lineage, tons of talent through the high school and collegiate ranks. And to have competitive basketball is It's, it's going to be a revelation. We want to see a team that comes out and tries, and they have a bunch of kids whose heads all seem to be in the same place. This team was together for the— the entire team came out to Las Vegas. They played together, practiced together in Las Vegas, and then the whole team, Trae Young and Anthony Davis, they didn't have to do this, went to Los Angeles and the whole team practiced together. in Los Angeles. It's the same page, one vision, one mission, 38-win team.

I, I have, I have goosebumps here. I mean, how's this running emotional moments for this team?

Who doesn't like to see their team try to win basketball games?

I was a hard under, but now I'm wavering.

Now they might be a 55-win team.

No, holy mackerel. We were— we have to temper our expectations, but it's just so refreshing. And, and people in Washington really do deserve winning basketball. The total at 30, we've seen some 33.5s. What we're doing from the FanDuel Sportsbook is 34.5. Obviously I'm over.

He talked himself into the Trae Young extension in about 5 minutes.

They were going to pay him. They paid him a grotesque amount. They overpaid him in, in term and in dollars. But they needed a point guard for this thing this year to work. So it was a grotesque overpay for a point guard. They believe Travis Schlenk is in Washington. He went from Atlanta where he had—

He did great.

He, he didn't do— he did fine.

Killed it.

Did fine.

Did fine.

Did fine.

Did fine. He was in the office every day.

They, they made it to—

Didn't have any scandals.

Ask a New York fan how they feel about Trae Young. That's because of that Atlanta team that, that was built that way. Fuck Trae Young. Where'd that come from? They succeeded. They were not—

I love this.

They did succeed.

I realize this is so hard to—

That was 6 years ago. That was

5 years ago.

Yeah. While COVID, we're all wearing fucking masks.

Yeah. All you're, you're trying to make fun of Travis Schlenk. They built a team where New York was motivated to say, fuck Trae Young. Okay, fine, great.

You know, to be fair, the reason I made fun of Travis Schlenk was because he was terrible and got fired.

Jesus. I mean, to be

fair,

Travis is— Travis is good. I will say that.

You think you like Travis?

I think he's good. I think he's smart. And I think some of the decisions that were made there that undid that team were not entirely his.

Also, new ownership group in Atlanta, not the same ownership.

I'll revise my statement. A lot of the moves made under the tutelage of Travis Schlenk were about—

Tutelage?

Supervision? Purview?

Zach, are you under or over?

I, I'm still recovering from—

You didn't realize it was gonna be this emotional. I thought he was gonna start talking about the Baltimore Bullets and Gus Johnson and Wes Unseld and Jack Barron.

You have to go that far back to find a winning basketball tradition.

Hoya paranoia. I mean, I didn't know where— what else was going to come up.

RIP Mike Sweeney.

Stevie Blake at Maryland.

Some of the greats. Steve Francis at Maryland.

I do. Look, Trae Young is, is, is Trae Young the most underrated passer in the history of the league? Like, people don't think of him as a passing genius because he holds the ball a lot and he monopolizes it and he is passing mostly to get assists. Other players play like that too. For a little guy, he's one of the best passers ever for a little guy. All that said, I simply could not look at this whole picture, all of it, the history, the youth, the injuries and availability, the— it doesn't seem like Anthony Davis has been super psyched to be a Washington Wizard and not get a contract extension. I can't look at all of that in a very strong top-to-bottom Eastern Conference and say 35 wins. I'm going under. I'd see the talent if they got 70 games outta Trey and AD or 60 combined games or 55. I could see an over for sure 'cause they just had so much stability on both ends. Although I do think the Davis-Sarr thing is gonna need some ironing out on both ends of the floor. I just, I just can't trust these guys to win 35 games.

I'm sorry.

Very fair. Very fair.

We did 13 Going on 30 on the rewatchables a couple weeks ago. Yes. And Julian and I were making jokes about Mark Ruffalo. Who clearly is on autopilot for most of the movie and has a look on his face like, my agent told me this movie would be a good idea, but I wish I wasn't here. Peeking in the Thriller scene when they have to do a Thriller dance, and you could just see him be like, I thought I was going to win an Oscar by now doing Thriller in a Jennifer Garner rom-com. That's how Anthony Davis has felt for about 6 months.

No, I don't agree with that.

They're like, Anthony, do the Thriller dance. He's like looking over at Rich Paul to see if he can. Can I I got it. All right, I got it. All right, I'm gonna do the Thriller dance. Great. I don't think this will be their team in February, despite your objections to this, because if it was, they would've picked up the Anthony Davis extension and given him an extra year, and they did not. So that makes me think they're trying to keep optionality each way. And as we've discussed now 20 times in the pod, the conference is too good, and there's gonna have to be a couple teams that aren't good. I only have 4 teams under 38 wins in the East. And that includes Charlotte that I had at 38. So I have Washington, Chicago, Brooklyn, Milwaukee all under, and I, I have Washington somewhere between 32 and 34 wins. I'll give you 34 just to be fun. It is worth mentioning that Trae Young has not been a successful regular season player the last few years, and he's somebody that teams relentlessly and delightedly attack on defense like it's their job.

If you're going glass half empty, I think it's fair to ask out loud, Atlanta had a pretty nice young core, and how come Trae Young couldn't figure it out? How come Quinn Snyder and Trae Young couldn't get on the same page with a nice young core? Why wasn't he a facilitator?

That he clearly would've been perfect for. Yeah.

He should have, he could have been should have been perfect for. Why is that going to work in Washington?

There's, there's, I mean, it's been so long since there was any glass at all. The glass got poured into the blue reflecting pool years and years ago. And I just can't, I can't get to, I can't get to 35.

I have some extra news for you.

I'm listening.

This is a lock for me under 35.

That's hard. That's hurtful. Under 34.5.

Honestly, this is starting— this is— this number is a miracle.

I'm gonna send you something.

Why is this team gonna win 35 games? Anthony Davis plays 40 games a year.

They have the number 1 overall—

Trae Young, who Atlanta is like, please take him.

Number 1 overall draft pick in the entire league.

Yeah, I watched them at BYU last year. They lost in round— what'd they lose, round 1 or round 2? I can't even remember.

This is beginning to feel like one of those things where You, you, you almost bet, like emotionally, you almost bet against the team you're cheering for so that you win either way. You win if they win in your heart.

Yeah.

You win money if I, not that I bet, but—

House didn't do that. He did the opposite.

But no, but now I, I, having taken the under, my heart wants House to win this because this has been such, this is a borderline roast of Joe House and the Wizards now. And my heart is, is now set on I'd like him to be happy. I'd like him to claim victory here. I don't think he will though. I'm, I'm pretty confident Miami—

You're gonna play 52 games against the East and be underdogs in like 42 of them, 44 of them.

The most sober assessment of this, all hyperbole and joking aside, let's get these rotations figured out. I mean, 'cause the, the, who's the, who's gonna create shots from the second unit?

There's a whole bunch of things to do. You have a bunch of young guys who are like, I'd love to take a lot of shots tonight, please.

Trey Johnson's one of 'em. Yeah.

Will Bradley's one of 'em. Keyshawn George is one of 'em. Yeah. Sar, Hauer Sar. And, and I mean, Zach asked it, but it's a lot of pressure on the coaching staff. It's a lot of pressure.

Well, and that was one of the reasons I have a lock for this. I thought the Wizards coach was pretty terrible.

It's impossible to know whether or not he's terrible. This is the first time that we're going to see him with a mandate to go try and win basketball games. Who knows how Brian—

You've been my friend since 1988, so I'm not going to dig through my texts where you told me that you maybe weren't a fan of the coaching the last couple years with this guy.

Well, I—

he has a name. His name's Brian Keefe.

It is Brian Keefe.

Is Brian Keefe the coach of the year?

Coach of what year?

One year from now.

Oh, is he the coach in one year? I don't want to say.

Okay.

Maybe that, maybe that if they, if Joe House wins this, he is. If you and I win, Bill, he's not. Maybe, maybe the over-under is the answer to that question.

Fair.

I hope I'm wrong. I feel bad about locking it. I'm sorry. I just can't believe this was one of the over-unders I couldn't believe. It's like 35 wins. This is 35 wins, basically projecting that every positive thing possible could happen. You could talk me into like 36 wins, and that's Davis playing like 70 games, Trae Young suddenly being like, you know, a leader offensively, which he just wasn't in Atlanta forever.

The hard thing is it's, it's 10 more wins than Brooklyn. It's 10 more wins than Brooklyn. This roster is 10 wins better than the Brooklyn roster.

And I have real defensive questions too.

I know, I get it. Sarr and Davis should be pretty— AJ DeBonta, that is where you're going to start seeing the steals and blocks of that guy. In fact, you know, just get ready to start betting steals and blocks DeBonta. Those— that's my player prop recommendation.

Well, the funny thing is The reason I, I vacillated on this before I set it on the lock, and they're gonna be that 4 to 10 range, and I think there's gonna be a lot of distance between them and the 11th playoff team, or the, you know, 10, 11. So they might actually care about the last couple weeks, 'cause why not? You know, it's like, wait, we might, we're in the range you need to be anyway. All right. The recap. Last chance to lock something down. Knicks under 51.5. All 3 of us agreed on that. No sign of disrespect to the Knicks because we think they are one of the, the handful of teams that can win the Finals. Celtics over 51.5. House and I locked it down. Zach did not, but he has the over. Philadelphia 49.5, under, under for me and Zach, over for House. Toronto 46.5, over, over for me and Zach, under for House. Brooklyn 24.5, 3 unders and yet no locks. Nobody wants to lock this?

It's too low.

Okay. Cleveland Cavaliers 48.5, 3 overs. Zach locked it. Detroit 47.5, confusing. I went slightly under. Zach went over with a lock. House went over. Indiana 44.5. Sure you don't want to lock this, Zach?

Nope.

Try lock. Triple lock?

No, try lock.

All right. House and I are locking that one down. 3 overs though. Chicago 29.5, 3 unders.

Let me— I want to intervene.

Yep.

I want to lock in that Chicago under.

Tasty.

Yeah, I'm gonna get on that. I want to make sure I have 7 locks. I need an odd number of locks.

Now you're making me jealous that I should have locked it.

It's not too late.

Yeah. Why are they gonna win 30 games?

If I have Washington winning 35 or 36 games and Chicago can't win 30, how about that? Can't have it.

I'm gonna stay away. Milwaukee 25.5, 3 unders for us. Miami 44.5. Zach and I have locked this down and House has not. Orlando 43.5, 3 overs. Atlanta 43.5, under, under for me and Zach, over for House. That seems to be the most disagreement.

I'm gonna, uh, double down on the disagreement, only I, I want to have an under lock. I'm gonna lock Atlanta under 43.5.

Wow.

Charlotte over for me, 37.5. You guys went under. Washington 34.5. I locked it down as an under. Zach went under, House went over, and that's what we had. Quick question, what is the highest win total in the East, do you think?

I'll go 54.

Wow.

I had 54. I had the Celtics at 54. I think they're going to be the 1 seed.

I agree that it's the Celtics, and I thought they were just going to win 56 again. I, uh, re-racking and allocating wins and all the rest of it.

And what do you think the lowest win total will be in either conference? Do you think we'll get in the teens with anybody with these new rules?

I don't. I mean, I, I, I picked Sacramento over 20.5, so I have nobody in the teens. I think 22, 23, something like that would be the lowest one.

I think somebody gets 20 in the East. Somebody goes 20 and 62.

I could see the Clippers ending up around 20.

Yeah. Ty Lue leaves in like December. It's like Ty Lue has had enough. He's resigned.

There's no place he'd rather be

than the Clippers.

He said that. He did say it's a press conference. There's no place he'd rather be.

I could be Hawaii at a beachside bar sipping a margarita. No, no, no. I want to Coach Brandon Ingram's partially torn Achilles.

Niederhauser. He loves Niederhauser.

Who doesn't?

He loves coaching Brook Lopez in year 38. Well, there was no place I would rather be than with you guys doing over-unders for, uh, I don't know, this was 5 hours. Zach Lowe, pleasure as always. Great to see you. Joe House. Yeah, we did it.

Amazing.

Thanks to, uh, Chris this time, plus Cahill and Eduardo and Jack Wilson back at Spotify. Zach, when's your next podcast?

Uh, Thursday we have, uh, Stan Van Gundy, and then we're gonna have a little mini Lakers preview with Dan Woike.

Oh nice, that's great.

And then your fingers are working this week too.

They are. We got League Pass rankings coming out in dribs and drabs. I think we're gonna do 5 parts, 6 teams a day, spread out till tip-off. I can't remember the exact schedule.

Great.

Um, congrats on getting the fingers going. Uh, don't forget new—

Any inspiration? You feeling any, uh

A little bit. I thought I loved your first post. I thought it was inspiring talking about writing forces you to interrogate things a little bit harder. I think about that constantly. I feel like I'm not interrogating things enough, like the Wizards 34.5 over-under. I feel like if I— if my fingers are really working, I would have interrogated that a lot more violently. Um, House, pleasure.

Thank you. We'll be together.

Thanks everybody. I'll be back Thursday on this podcast as well. See you, Zach. Opt-in required bonus issued as non-withdrawable Profit Boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration, max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.