Transcript of The State of the Housing Market and Why Real Estate Is Not AI-Proof with Jason Oppenheim New

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
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00:00:00

Is it a buyer's market? Uh, that is the question on everyone's mind, and Jason Oppenheim has the answer. He is of course the real estate agent, broker, founder extraordinaire of the Oppenheim Group, the luxury real estate brokerage that's covered in Netflix's hit show Selling Sunset. You might think that Jason is a reality star first, but I can confirm after spending a couple of hours with him that he is definitely a real estate fanatic way before he's a reality TV star. He talks about how AI is changing real estate investments.

00:00:30

Humanoids will be replacing lower-end real estate agents.

00:00:32

Whether real estate is a good investment right now.

00:00:35

I'd say 90% of the, of my clients would have been better off renting for the last 10 years than buy.

00:00:42

And so many hot takes.

00:00:44

Listen, at some point there is no work. Work is a fetish. Work is going to be an elective.

00:00:52

I'm Nicole Lapin, the only financial expert you don't need a dictionary to understand. It's time for some money. Rehab. Jason Oppenheim, welcome to Money Rehab.

00:01:09

Nice to be here.

00:01:10

It's great to have you here. There's so much to get into. Obviously everybody probably asks you a question that I imagine you're gonna be annoyed with me asking, but is it a buyer's market?

00:01:22

Oh no, that's not the question that I normally get. It's usually, is it, can you give me some advice you know, on whatever, like some— like there's some interesting intelligent nugget that I have that's going to change their financial future. So no, this is an easier and much better question. Yes, it is. It's a buyer's market.

00:01:39

But you have to say that.

00:01:40

Why?

00:01:41

Because you're in the business of selling real estate.

00:01:44

Well, I prefer it to be a seller's market, honestly, if I could choose. And I prefer to have that as my answer too. Yeah, I think I probably have more listings than buyers, you know, although it's probably pretty close to 50/50. As a brokerage, I think we have more listings than buyers. So a seller's market would be beneficial for me. Um, I also own a bunch of real estate, so a seller's market would be, you know, significantly beneficial for me. But it just happens to be a buyer's market.

00:02:09

But you're talking about California specifically or in general?

00:02:12

Sure. I mean, I think overall, even nationally, it's a buyer's market. But specifically in LA, it's a— but we've had a rough time in LA. The market's had a really rough time. You know, the mansion tax kind of crushed development.

00:02:24

Explain what that is.

00:02:25

Everyone take a shot. I bet there's people that just take a shot when I say mansion tax. Yeah, it's a— uh, you know, you've got, uh, just build costs are exceptionally high, carrying costs are exceptionally high. Um, you've got not a lot of buyers out there. You've got more sellers and more supply than you do buyers, significantly more. And you got a lot of wealthy people leaving LA, you know, a lot. I mean, in droves. So that's probably the biggest thing, is just a lot of wealthy people leaving LA.

00:02:56

Explain if somebody doesn't realize what the mansion tax is.

00:03:00

Well, the larger issue, the larger issue is a lot of people, a lot of the wealthy people leaving LA. And people, you know, there's a lot of people that just, oh, we don't need the wealthy, or we don't like the— well, sure, you can hate on the wealthy all you want, but they pay the taxes. So a lot of the people that don't care for the wealthy do care for social services, and the wealthy pay for all the social services. They pay for education, you know, roads. They pay for the You want money to go to the homeless and you want money to go to babysitting kids. I forget.

00:03:30

I don't know if money goes out.

00:03:32

Yeah, it does. All those like—

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I have a 1-year-old.

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All those like— Yeah, but you drop them off at— There's like programs for daycare. Yeah. Aren't there programs for—

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Babysitting programs would be amazing.

00:03:42

Jason for president. They're out there. Yes. And so I just think the reason that most people have laughter, it's been a rough few years. I mean, I started with COVID And I'd say the biggest reason is, is that people don't have to be in LA to work. And this isn't, by the way, not just happening in LA. I mean, it's happening all over the world. All large cities are losing their wealth. London, obviously LA, New York, Chicago. I mean, you, you name the, the big city and it's just not doing really well. Big cities are having probably the toughest few years they've had in decades.

00:04:10

So where do you go?

00:04:11

Well, you go to where everyone else is going if you want. I'm, I'm not going anywhere, but a lot of people are going to— I mean, it depends where you live. If you live in London, You know, you don't like the taxes, you don't like the big government, you don't like the crime and other things, so you go to Dubai. You— interestingly enough, a lot of people from London are coming here, and taxes are really high in England. I'd say Dubai is the biggest draw for London. For LA, the biggest draw is probably Texas and Florida. There's a few others— Tennessee, Georgia, the Carolinas, Nevada— but mostly Texas and Florida. They're getting the benefit of all the droves of wealthy people leaving California, New York.

00:04:51

Then do you worry that there's so much room to expand in those places? Like, everybody's going—

00:04:54

oh, I wouldn't, I wouldn't buy real estate there.

00:04:57

Why not?

00:04:58

Because of what you just said. I, I don't buy— I wouldn't buy real estate anywhere where there's no supply constraint. Miami, there's no supply constraint. Not for condos, for houses.

00:05:08

Up in Miami.

00:05:09

Yeah, because you can go up and there's no, there's no supply. Yeah, exactly. So in both cases, Nashville, you can go out, Austin, you can go out. You're exactly right. And, and Miami, you can go up.

00:05:18

Vegas.

00:05:18

Now that's with Vegas, you can go up and out. So you're screwed. Um, yeah, I, I wouldn't buy a house in Miami. I mean, sorry, I wouldn't buy a condo in Miami because there's no supply concern. I think a house in, in Miami is a better investment cuz land is, is not plentiful in Miami.

00:05:34

Okay. So dig deep and give us a tip that will change people's financial lives.

00:05:38

Okay. I would say, I think I'm a big believer that AI is going to change everything, everything. I'd love to even get into it to some degree, but if I were to focus on an investment strategy, I'd say you need to focus on what is it that AI can't produce. You certainly don't want to be investing in goods and services because AI will, will be very deflationary with respect to the offering of services and the production of goods. I mean, robots will be building robots that will be building goods. And a new car is not going to be a good investment. Anything, any product's not going to be a good investment. I would probably invest in things that AI can't produce. Land is probably the most, you know, obvious. Houses will eventually be produced by AI and robotics, but that's a long way away. So I think housing is still probably going to maintain its value significantly, you know, better than most other assets.

00:06:30

Chip fab houses aren't there yet.

00:06:32

No. No, and not in major cities. I mean, you could potentially start doing prefabs in like outside of Vegas somewhere, but we've got way too much regulation and bureaucracy in LA. They're never going to allow prefab. You're gonna— the— all the other structural plumbing, all that stuff is never gonna work.

00:06:49

So don't do it.

00:06:50

I don't— I don't see prefab ever coming to big cities. I just think— I've never believed the 3D, all that shit. I don't ever think that's coming. I've been hearing about that since I was a kid. And I just don't think there's any real viable— now to solve like the homeless problem or something like that. Yes. If you get rid of, you know, if you change a lot of building codes. Yes. I think that's not a bad idea. But in terms of a real answer to housing, no.

00:07:14

But AI is also coming for you, right? Only—

00:07:16

Yes and no. Not really. I'm pretty insulated, luckily.

00:07:20

Okay. Maybe you, but other—

00:07:22

Real estate agents are largely insulated. And I would say for a long time, as particularly luxury real estate agents, because AI will be very helpful to us. And I think it will replace the kind of tertiary jobs around real estate. You know, you're not gonna have a, it's gonna replace civil engineers and architects and designers and appraisers, videographers. You know, it's gonna replace a lot of that, but I don't think it's gonna replace the luxury real estate agent for a long time. We, interestingly, a lot, our job is, is very nuanced and also it's both physical and intellectual. The physical aspects of just, you know.

00:07:58

Yeah, you have to put your little sign up.

00:08:00

Yeah.

00:08:00

From the house and down the street.

00:08:01

Yeah, that's it. That's all we do. That's why I got these arms, just carrying just those signs, all those signs every day. I think we're safe for a good 10 to 20 years, but we're one of the, I think, lucky professions in that regard.

00:08:16

Let's take us out of fancy land and come down to earth and, you know, not in the real estate, luxury real estate market, these sites that allow you to list your house, sell your house.

00:08:25

Well, those have been around forever as well.

00:08:28

You're not scared?

00:08:31

No, I really believe that the, that the, that real estate agents are largely insulated from any near-term replacement from AI. And, and I think just lucky, you know, it's nothing particularly, you know, skillful that we did. It's just we are lucky that, that we're such a unique combination of multifaceted intellect and physical labor that it's just going to be very hard to replace. I mean, just like a plumber is going to be extremely hard to replace, and an electrician— they're on the last on the ladder, they're the highest rung of the ladder. That ladder is disappearing, you know, it's going to replace rung after rung. But luckily, real estate agents, particularly luxuries, but still just regular real estate agents, I think they'll get replaced first. If you're selling a $400,000 tract home in Nevada, more likely to get replaced than selling you know, $8 to $20 million homes in, you know, nuanced locations in Southern California.

00:09:24

So that $400,000 house, you could have a virtual tour, right? Or getting a virtual tour.

00:09:29

Well, you, you'll always have virtual tours, but you, but real estate is still a human experience. You still wanna walk the house, you still wanna look at the finishes, you still wanna touch it. You still wanna understand the scale and the flow and the floor plan and the yard and the views and the street. It's a, it's a very tactile experience. And I just think that is, it's going to be, hard to replace the real estate agent. First of all, you're gonna need robotics, right? 'Cause you're gonna have to still do open houses and walk people through a property and open the doors and turn the lights on. So there's, you know, clean up the dog poop. There's still fluff the pillows. You're still gonna—

00:10:02

Jason, you're not cleaning up dog poop.

00:10:04

I clean up dog poop quite more often than you know. Well, I also have a dog. I clean up. Yeah, absolutely. If I go to a house and there's dog poop, I clean the dog poop up.

00:10:10

You're not too big.

00:10:11

Oh, I don't have an ego, especially when it comes to a presentation. No, I'll get to work.

00:10:16

So you don't see a day where there's humanoids walking around?

00:10:20

Absolutely. Humanoids will be replacing lower-end real estate agents probably in 10 to 15 years. I think luxury real estate agents— and if I'm guessing at this point, but I'd say, you know, we got, we got a couple decades left before we're— listen, at some point there is no work. Work is a fetish. Work is going to be an elective, you know, it's going to be for everybody. For everybody. Yeah. I don't see humans working in 20-plus years. Absolutely not. I don't see anyone working in 20 years.

00:10:50

So what are we going to be doing?

00:10:52

We're going to have to re— re-describe what it means to be human, what it means to have purpose. We're going to get purpose from family, from friendship, for, you know, relationship, from eating, hanging out with friends, reading, There'll be intellectual pursuits. I mean, we're going to have to redefine where we get our purpose. It's not going to be coming from work anymore. And that's a, you know, we needed— it was a, it's a human construct that, that we get purpose from work. It's not like some innate thing, just largely. I mean, I think capitalism has kind of ingrained that in us to where we do derive a lot of purpose from work. I certainly do. It will be a very hard transition to start figuring out how to get purpose elsewhere, to be honest. But it's certainly possible. You know, back in tribal times, we weren't, we weren't really getting as much purpose from work as we do today. I mean, that's more of a social construct, a result of capitalism. So I think we'll be able to redefine that. At the end of the day, drinking some Elon Kool-Aid, you'll see, you'll see.

00:11:53

How are you going to afford to live then?

00:11:55

Well, be very inexpensive to live. I mean, because robots will be providing all the services and product. I mean, it's going to be very— it's just going to be— CapEx is going to be the cost of everything. I mean, the costs are going to go down astronomically. I think whatever costs $100 a day will cost $5 in, in 20 years. It'll be almost free. Food— everyone will have their own Michelin-star chef. Growing food will be done by robotics. The transportation of food will be done by robotics. I mean, give me an industry and it will be done by superhuman intelligence and robotics. There's no— there's nothing that humans are better at than a superhuman intelligent robot. I mean, it's going to be faster, stronger, smarter. I mean, humans are not going to be able to compete.

00:12:42

There's no work and there's no money.

00:12:44

Yeah, there probably won't be money in, in 50-plus years, but that's— now we're going way down the road. We'll still have some form of currency. It'll probably end up being more energy will be the currency that we'll be looking at in 50 years. Not so much money.

00:12:57

And where are we going to live?

00:12:58

Earth. But we'll probably be exploring other— we'll probably be exploring the moon. I'm sure that there'll be opportunities to live on other planets. Mars will be tough, but the moon is— I mean, I don't know why we'll need to leave Earth, but we will certainly be exploring other, you know, the solar system for sure. And there'll be opportunities for people to live off Earth if you want.

00:13:19

Sounds so fun. So how long do you think the real estate agent life is?

00:13:26

Again, no one's working in 20 years. So the top rung of the ladder, the last rung to disappear and be replaced by AI and robotics will probably be around 20 years, I'm guessing.

00:13:37

And that's going to be you.

00:13:38

You're going to be like, no, no, I won't be that long.

00:13:40

Survival of the fittest.

00:13:41

But I do believe that real estate agents are near the top rung, one of the top rungs of the ladder. For sure. I mean, lower rungs, lawyers, accountants, you know, they're gone in 5 years. I mean, I'm already replacing my lawyer with ChatGPT. Well, no, but Gemini DeepThink. I just redid all of my onboarding documents. I'm going through all of my insurance stack, everything with DeepThink Gemini, and it's creating 50 times— I mean, what I'm getting, I'm redoing my estate planning. With, with it as well. It's giving me hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of legal work in a day. I mean, there's— I get research reports. I literally type in like the most nuanced question, and then Gemini Deep Research will give me, within about 15 minutes it takes, a 10-page research report on my specific issue with about 80 citations. It would take a cadre of, of lawyers a month to create. I mean, I am a lawyer. I mean, I've done these.

00:14:42

I was about to say, in your previous life, people don't realize what a high tootin' falootin' powered lawyer you were, working on these big AMD, Enron cases. So are you able to feed it the right prompt?

00:14:57

Prompting is what is the most important thing. And so you have to be intelligent enough— so far, right now, you have to be intelligent enough to be able to prompt it. That's the difficult— can I? I told you it was going to happen.

00:15:10

Can you put your dirty Dior shoes on?

00:15:12

Let's be honest, maybe the bottom is— I can't see the bottom, but the sides are clean.

00:15:16

I'll put up my feet.

00:15:17

Yeah, make me—

00:15:18

we're going to get comfortable. Okay, so into the future where there's no work, there's no money, there's no real estate agents, there's no—

00:15:26

work will be an elective. There'll still be work. People will still want to there'll still be a desire to have a baseball bat made by a human. There'll still be old people that want their accountant to be human. I mean, it'll still be kind of fetishy work, but it won't be necessary work. But isn't that, isn't that the definition of a utopia anyway? I mean, doesn't any utopian definition really not have required work?

00:15:54

That's so interesting that you said utopia, because I was gonna say dystopian future.

00:15:59

Let me push back on that. I mean, most definitions of a dystopian future would largely involve like labor camps and forced labor, whereas most definitions of a utopian society would be elective work and not required work. So I would argue that we're headed more towards a utopian future than a dystopian.

00:16:17

Okay. And what do we do until then? You're investing, it sounds like, in AI.

00:16:22

I mean, what are we doing? We're watching probably the most exciting 15 years in the history of human civilization. Maybe even Earth. I mean, we've been around— it's been around for billions of years. I mean, we are literally— I think as we get into AGI and superhuman intelligence, we're going to see the most interesting, exciting, and anxiety-producing, you know, I mean, it's not all positive, but it will— I think we're about to just be a fly on the wall and watch this, and it's going to be the most interesting movie you've ever seen.

00:16:55

Yeah, it's so anxiety-producing. Like, this—

00:16:57

it doesn't have to be.

00:16:58

I, I don't know, that was like, oh, Alexa is going to kill Oh, it's so funny. I'm like, this is not hilarious.

00:17:03

Oh, well, I also think there's a good 20% chance that AI wipes us out. But I'm—

00:17:08

And that's not dystopian?

00:17:09

That is. But I'm— I am choosing to be an optimist about AI. At the end of the day, it's whatever. You're not going to stop it anyway. We're not going to stop AI and we can't because we need to be the leaders. We are not going to let China dominate AI and be the world, you know, dominant force. I'd rather the US do it. If there's any country on planet Earth, you know, there's people that have their problems with the United States, but you name another country that you'd rather be in control besides the United States, I'll take the United States. And so we need to keep going.

00:17:43

So how does this change your investment strategy over the next couple of years? I heard you really talk about and get into treasuries, 30-year treasuries.

00:17:53

That's true, because I think that AI is unbelievably deflationary. I will give you an example. Deflation occurs when people, you know, obviously when people expect prices to go down, and so they won't spend money. You won't get— you're not going to buy a car for $50,000 today if you think it'll be $40,000 next year and $30,000 the year after that. Well, you might, fine, but most people won't, right? Because they'll wait, and so they won't spend. And so the Fed will need to lower rates to encourage people to spend. It may get to a point— I wouldn't be surprised if we get to a point where you're getting— instead of a bank paying you interest for your money to be at their bank, you're getting charged a fee for the money to be— we could have negative inflation and negative interest rates. I really think that AI is going to be particularly deflationary in goods and services, and the Fed's going to have to chase that by lowering rates. It's not gonna happen necessarily this year, but I think it will— I think we're gonna start seeing enormous job losses, and that's probably the biggest problem.

00:18:59

And by the way, that is counter-deflationary, because I think we will then need to pay UBI. We'll need to be offering a universal— no, I wouldn't even say basic. I mean, it could be high income, it could be a service income, but also that'll be a lot less expensive too. I mean, we'll give robots I mean, homeless people, instead of spending $100,000 a year like we're doing now, though, you can get a robot for $30,000 that will cook, clean, you know, and do many other things for, for people to provide services for them. So I'm generally optimistic. I think the quality of life is from— for a lot of people is going to go way up. Almost everyone. I really think that a person who's a poor person today, in 10 or 15 years, will be living like a wealthy person. Or at least a wealthy person today. They'll be— I actually think the quality of life will come together. I think we're gonna— the bottom is gonna benefit the most because look at— I can get most of the things I want anyway right now. If I want a Michelin-star chef and I have it—

00:19:59

but you're Jason Albinet.

00:20:00

I'm saying a person with money can get most of the things they want right now, but in 10 or 15 years, a person without that much money is going to have a maid, someone washing their car, someone doing their dishes, someone cooking for them, that someone that's going to be able to handle their healthcare largely, babysit their kids. I mean, that quality of life, it's going to raise people's quality of life. I can afford that stuff right now, but it'll be— that will be— instead of costing me for all that stuff, it could cost me maybe $400,000 or $500,000 to get all that stuff all day long. That could cost— in 10 years, I could cost $30,000.

00:20:35

Are you first in line for a robot?

00:20:37

Not first, because I don't want to dick around with an early generation robot. But when they're able to clean and do dishes and, and wash my car and, and, and cook for me, like, as, as, as the best— I mean, the quality of what they're gonna be able to do is gonna be a 10. I mean, they're gonna be the— that my robot in 5 years will be the best chef on planet Earth. There's no human that will be able to cook as well as my robot. So I will have the best chef in the world. You'll have the best chef in the world. It'll be amazing. I'll have a— it'll be a therapist, it'll be a chef, it'll clean my house better than any maid could ever clean my house. It'll answer every question I have. It'll, it'll do everything.

00:21:13

So how are you putting your money where your mouth is around—

00:21:17

well, I'm heavily invested in Tesla and long-term bonds. But listen, nobody knows, but I mean, I'm definitely betting on deflation and I'm betting on some of these AI companies doing quite well. Tesla's building robotics and it has artificial intelligence and there's a relationship to space, and space is going to be the new frontier for energy. I mean, energy is going to be money and we're going to be launching data centers off of the moon in 20 years. I mean, we're not going to be getting— we're going to be getting energy from the sun and it's probably going to be coming from you know, swarms of satellites collecting that and then microwaving it back to Earth. No, I sound crazy, but, but it's gonna— but you'll see, but it's gonna happen.

00:22:00

I'm into it.

00:22:00

But it's gonna happen.

00:22:01

Is there— are you still big on the leveraged treasuries too? Are you still—

00:22:07

yeah, I'm still— it's not doing well right now because of the war and oil prices, but yeah, in the long term, I mean, there's TLT, which is a non-leveraged, there's TMF. Actually, I think it's a great time to get in it now because I think the war has caused some inflation with oil. So it's at like $35 a share. I mean, I honestly, I think it'll be double in within a couple of years. I really do.

00:22:28

What are you buying now?

00:22:30

I'm— well, I'm buying a condo for myself, but not as an investment. I'm kind of tapped out on real estate. I own a lot of real estate. I'm not buying any more. L.A. and Newport Beach.

00:22:40

That's where your condo is going to be?

00:22:41

Well, I'll be living between Newport Beach and L.A. I have a house in Newport Beach and I have a condo in LA. I'll be going back and forth. I don't think that I would be investing in real estate right now. You can't make any money in LA because anything I'd be investing in would be eventually over $5 million, and the mansion tax would just wipe out too much profit. Also, I don't see the market going up considerably over the next few years, so I'm not really buying real estate.

00:23:05

Well, there's a bunch of headlines, and I know you love all these headlines.

00:23:09

Well, they're always— they're always right.

00:23:10

It's just that there's a new crisis housing bubble going on? No, no, because sales have been down like 8.5%.

00:23:20

Wait, so they're saying that there's a bubble and if it's going to burst? I mean, prices suck. Prices have been in the gutter for like 5 years.

00:23:26

Price—

00:23:27

LA real estate, luxury real estate market's down over the last—

00:23:29

$400K for median.

00:23:31

Well, I can't speak so much for, for the national average. I don't do real estate across the country, but the LA luxury real estate market We're selling houses now that for the same price they sold for 8, 10 years ago. Then that's common right now. I mean, the luxury real estate market is basically at where it was 8 to 10 years ago. No growth. That's terrible. I mean, it's not a bubble, it's the opposite.

00:23:54

It's a new type of bubble where you're not making money.

00:23:57

Well, no, I don't, I don't understand that definition of bubble crisis. I thought a bubble was when something's gonna pop.

00:24:03

Scary headlines. Big.

00:24:05

No, no, no. Then I think you're not using the term bubble in the way that we hear about it in real estate. Bubble is, is something that's gonna pop. And then prices are going to go down.

00:24:12

And that's not going to happen.

00:24:13

No, because prices suck right now. Prices have been going down.

00:24:16

What about an affordability crisis? What kind of crisis are we in? Give me a crisis.

00:24:21

I mean, this is not going to be popular, but we're not in an affordability crisis in the way that you would normally define affordability. Everyone loves complaining about being in an affordability crisis. And yes, we've had— we're in a high interest rate crisis. In an inflation crisis, so to speak. Not anymore. I mean, now inflation's in the 2s. The idea that prices are still going up is nonsense. And CPI, every acronym that measures inflation, is in the 2s. That's historically pretty average. So yeah, 3% is— yeah, so 2 to 3. So we're closer to 2 than we are 3, but who cares? We're in the 2 to 3s. So inflation is no longer a concern. And like I said, I'm a big believer in deflation coming up. But we've had a lot of inflation in the last few years. When people talk about affordability, they should be talking about rent, not purchase, because purchase price has everything to do with interest rates. So it's nonsense to say we have an affordability crisis if you're talking about interest rates. You could say we have an interest rate— interest rates are up. Sure. So nothing to say that an affordability crisis is directly related to interest rates.

00:25:27

Then what? When interest rates go down in a few years and we fix the affordability crisis? That's nonsense. That definition is stupid.

00:25:33

I don't think it has to do with interest rates. I think it has to do with income.

00:25:37

Oh, incomes have been going up considerably on average over the last few years. No, no.

00:25:42

The income gap has increased dramatically.

00:25:44

Well, income gap is not an affordability—

00:25:47

it used to be 3x your income to get a house, and now it's 6x.

00:25:51

That's because of interest rates. That's an interest rate problem, not an affordability—

00:25:54

it's also a wage problem when you're thinking about rentals.

00:25:57

No, it's not. Let me get into rentals.

00:25:59

You would have single-digit increases in wages, but double-digit for rent.

00:26:03

Rents are not higher. I will, I'll square it right now. I will do the unpopular and I will teach people, uh, why they're wrong. And I'll get all the comments come in. You can hate me as much as you want, but let's put aside purchasing, okay? Because obviously when interest rates are high, it's going to take more of your income to purchase a house. That's an interest rate problem. It's not an affordability problem. Affordability, I'm going to do it, I'm gonna, is gonna, should be about rent. Okay, because that's not related to— so much related to interest rates. If you do an analysis of what it costs to rent a 1,000— and I've done this deep dive, so just— you can—

00:26:46

I heard you and your brother spent 30 minutes with ChatGPT.

00:26:49

You're right. So encourage people to do it on their own. If you look at what it costs in the similar location over the last 75 years. Pick, pick a, I don't know, a location. I mean, I'll just say Merced or Pasadena. I don't give a shit what location, it doesn't really matter. But it's important that you apply apples to apples. If you pick a location and you track the cost of renting a 1,000-square-foot 2-bedroom with similar amenities over the last 75 years, it has unbelievably similarly tracked the percentage of median income over the last 75 years within 1%. I mean, it's astronomically close over a 75-year term. So there's no affordability crisis in that sense. It costs the same. Now, why does it feel like there's an affordability crisis? For a multitude of different reasons. One, yes, purchasing has become astronomically more expensive because of interest rates. It's not affordability, it's interest rates.

00:27:53

But interest rates used to be 15 or 20%.

00:27:56

My only point is it doesn't do the discussion a service if you call a high interest rate environment an affordability crisis. It's not. I mean, you're not moving the ball forward because what are you— do you fix an affordability crisis when interest rates go down? No. Affordability should be about rents. It should be about the cost of goods that you need to buy and then rent. If you want to talk about the cost to purchase a house. I agree it's more expensive because of interest rates.

00:28:21

Everyone knows that 26% of first-time homebuyers in the market versus historically like 40%.

00:28:27

I just want to divorce the definition of affordability to purchasing a house because I consider that solely related to interest rates. So let's just— let's put that aside. Yes, interest rates are 2 to 3 times higher as they were 5 years ago, so the cost is going to be significantly higher. I agree with that. And when interest rates go down it's going to cost a lot less of your income. I don't think we should attach the word affordability to that. I really want to focus on rent. So here's why people think that rents have gone up, because they're not applying apples to apples. They go, oh, my parents, you know, lived on— were making this, and they lived in this apartment and they could afford it, and they could have— yes, I bet you that your parents lived in an apartment that you wouldn't be willing to live in. I bet you that your parents' apartment was 700 square feet. I bet you that it didn't have a pool. I bet you they didn't have appliances. I bet you didn't have a washer and dryer. I bet you that it didn't wasn't in a, in a, in the middle of town.

00:29:18

It wasn't in West Hollywood. It was probably out in like— my parents lived in a place in Sebastopol. Nobody knows where that is. Exactly right. It was 2 hours away. So people don't compare apples to apples. What people say is, oh, well, I want to live in a 2-bedroom that's new and has all these appliances and has a gym and has a pool, and it's located in the middle of West Hollywood. By the way, it's, it's 1,800 square feet and, and it's, you know, it's $2,800, and that's a lot of money. Yes, if you, if you compare that to what your parents lived in, that's way more. It's going to cost you a lot more of your income. But the, the size of apartments has gone up astronomically over the last 30 years, so we're not comparing apples to apples anymore. What you get when you get an apartment has You're getting a lot more services and amenities than you ever did before because they're just offering more saunas and pools and appliances. Yeah, sure. I mean, sometimes, but you're saying we're all security, whatever. We become fancier, our demands have become higher. And more importantly, people want to— up until the last few years have been wanting to live in the city where things are more expensive.

00:30:30

Go to 20 years ago. What is it, 20 years ago? 50 years ago, people weren't— the, the percentage of people living in the cities was much less. So cost of, of rentals was less. My only point here is that if you do compare apples to apples and you do a fair analysis of what it would cost of what your parents were living in, and, and you take that 1,000 square foot apartment with the same amenities in the same location, it costs the same amount of a percentage of your income.

00:30:57

I'm super surprised that you say this because people come for me so hard when I say that renting is not throwing away money.

00:31:03

It's not at all. I never understood that argument that buying and— first of all, renting is, I would argue, is throwing away less money than buying.

00:31:15

Well, because you throw away money somewhere. You give the bank. Yeah.

00:31:18

You're either giving it to interest or you're giving it to your landlord. I don't think it— why don't you just, why don't you just call the bank president your landlord? And then, and then it's the same thing. It's just, it's just doesn't make sense. I've never understood that. Throwing away money. I really don't. In fact, when you buy, you are, you're tied down. So you actually have less social, you have less mobility, physical mobility, because you're, you now have to, if you, if you want to move when you're renting, you don't have commissions, you don't have transfer taxes, you don't have to move all the furniture and goods. I mean, you'd be renting a furnished place. You're much more mobile. That is inherently valuable.

00:31:55

Yeah.

00:31:56

And it costs less to rent right now than it does to buy. Because interest rates are higher. So yeah, I never understood that. I'm a big believer in renting. There's a psychological pride of ownership. But if you just look at it financially, no, renting makes more sense than buying and always has. Unless you think that the market is going to appreciate and then buying makes more sense. That's the only reason that you would buy from a purely financial perspective is if you want to leverage your loan because you think that there's going to be market appreciation.

00:32:34

And historically there has been market appreciation, but not as much as the stock market.

00:32:39

You would be better off buying a house if you think that real estate is going to appreciate even 5% a year. Even if you thought the stock market was going to appreciate 7% a year and the real estate was only going to appreciate 5% a year, you're— then you're better off buying. There are a lot of people, I would say just about everyone, I'd say 90% of of my clients would have been better off renting for the last 10 years than buying.

00:33:03

Why?

00:33:04

Because they're making no money, because the market's back to where it was 8, 10 years ago, and they didn't have the mobility. They had all the problems with fixing up the house and the stress of fixing up the house, and they didn't— and they have to pay commissions to me, they have to pay property taxes, they have to pay the mansion tax. So they would have been better off renting for the last 8 years. I mean, that's just a fact. It's just a financial fact.

00:33:29

It's crazy that you're saying that as a real estate guy.

00:33:32

Well, because it's just honest.

00:33:33

Sitting there not with their feet on the table but arguing with me. No, about how wrong I was.

00:33:38

No, you're not wrong at all. I think a lot of real estate agents just push the narrative that they think benefits them. I think just honesty benefits everyone in the long run.

00:33:47

But you don't say this stuff on Selling Sunset.

00:33:49

Well, we don't get into this stuff on Selling Sunset.

00:33:52

Glamorizing buying houses.

00:33:54

Well, there's something very glamorous and sexy and rewarding and fun about buying a house. I'm— but I'm just talking to you financially. And by the way, I've made a lot of money buying homes and renting them out long term. I'm not suggesting that, that you can't make a lot of money in real estate, but if you don't think the market's going to appreciate, then you're better off renting. And I don't think the market's going to appreciate anytime soon, and it certainly hasn't been appreciating the last few years. So for the last few years, especially when in a high interest rate environment, it usually makes sense to rent. I mean, I, I've been renting for the last 3 years.

00:34:28

Can we have a spin-off?

00:34:30

Uh, of the Selling Sunset spin-off?

00:34:32

Renting Sunset?

00:34:34

Yes, fine. It might not get as many viewers, but okay.

00:34:38

I mean, why does it get so many viewers? We've had Emma here, We've had Mary here. Like, these women are smoking hot. Obviously not all the agents that you hire are Emma, but like, oh my God, is she real?

00:34:53

Yeah, she's— there's a lot of beautiful— Emma's stunning. And there are a lot of stunningly beautiful women at the brokerage on and off the show. The brokerage, I think largely because of the show, has attracted tons of women. We're like 85% women. We started a commercial division that is so far largely men, although I really did tell the guy I really would like to bring in a lot of female commercial agents. But yeah, we're just a very female-driven brokerage, which is fun. I think it's great.

00:35:24

Oh, Polly was here too, like next level, like unreal.

00:35:29

Just— no, I know.

00:35:30

Do you think though, honestly, in sales, being attractive—

00:35:33

of course, that's— of course, being a— I think being attractive probably helps in 99% of professions.

00:35:40

Do you think it will continue for how many more seasons? You guys are on 9?

00:35:43

10 will be the next one. We've had 9— 9 came out. My hope and expectation is a lot more seasons. Honestly, I enjoy it. And I don't take it for granted either. You know, I really— it's done so much for me. It's done so much for the business. I love it. I really do love it. I've really just come to love it and appreciate it. More and more.

00:36:05

It looks like you guys are having fun most of the time.

00:36:09

Most of the time. I mean, the drama is taxing, truly.

00:36:14

Is it real drama though, or is it like reality?

00:36:16

No, unfortunately it's all real, and that's what's taxing and stressful. But I have kind of allowed myself to not get as caught up and not feel that I need to solve problems. And I've come to realize that what I think is stressful today will end up being okay in 6 months. It usually is. So I kind of resigned to just a more like laissez-faire approach to it. And it's really worked. Trying to use financial terms for you.

00:36:45

Oh, thank you so much. Is Christine coming back? Christine Quinn?

00:36:48

I can't, you know, I can't confirm anything.

00:36:51

Just between us.

00:36:53

Oh, is it just between us? I respect my contractual obligations.

00:36:58

I appreciate that. Where are you on your scale of happiness? I've heard you talk about checking in on a scale of 1 to 10.

00:37:06

Yeah, it varies. I say I float between a 7 and a 9, you know, which is great. I mean, I'm in a pretty great place. I mean, honestly, everything in my life is amazing. I have like an appreciation list in my phone that I try to, you know, go through and remind myself, because a lot of happiness is, is just your perception and your appreciation. I mean, I was really happy. I've been really happy most of my life, but take, let's say, when I was 20. I was a really happy guy when I was 20. I didn't have that much money. I was driving like an old 1969 Camaro that I kind of built myself. I was eating at the Roach Coach, like the little burritos, and splitting Subway sandwiches with my brother, and wearing a wife beater, and, you know, and working on my car, and a waiter with my buddies at Macaroni Grill. And I was really happy, really happy. I don't know if I'm any happier today than I was then. So I think happiness is— is— no, it doesn't mean that like, so money, money and buy happiness. Well, it does help a lot.

00:38:07

It does help a lot because it removes the financial stress. I didn't have financial stress back then because I didn't have any needs. Not needing things, not wanting things, and not needing things is really powerful. And yeah, of course money— you're more likely to be happy if you have money, but it certainly is not— it doesn't— you can't just directly buy it. It certainly helps, can put you in the right environment to be happy, but there are a lot of unhappy wealthy people, and there are a lot of really happy people that aren't wealthy. Yeah, it's— I think it's more a question of appreciating your circumstances. I mean, honestly, I've got great friends and I've got a great dog and I go into the office with great people and I've got a healthy family and I'm healthy.

00:38:55

Is that what's on your list?

00:38:56

Yeah, I mean, health is the biggest one. I mean, really, if you are having a good day, if you wake up healthy and the people that you love are healthy, I mean, that's just a— you're starting your day off really, really, really well and you're not in like some labor camp or, you know, in some suppressed society. You're— if you're— if you wake up in California under the sun and you're healthy, I mean, that's a 9. You're at least a 9 right there. And if you don't see that, then that's— that's on you.

00:39:22

I mean, you just had your car stolen from your—

00:39:24

I did have my car stolen. Yeah.

00:39:25

Did that bring you down?

00:39:27

No, no, I don't get— I don't get unhappy over material things. I get— material things can make me happy. They don't make me unhappy. So if I buy something and it makes— my Rolls-Royce made me happy. When it got stolen, I wasn't unhappy. Yeah, it's just, it's either up or even, I think, on material things. It's not— I don't get super attached. I mean, it's a car.

00:39:49

But you spend, like, you're a spender.

00:39:52

Well, they're gonna— I have insurance for it, otherwise I would be much more unhappy.

00:39:56

Generally, outside of even the car.

00:39:59

Oh yeah, money for me is meant to be spent. Yeah.

00:40:02

Like, how much of what you're bringing in do you spend, or do you just like—

00:40:08

no, I say I can't— I, I, I would have a hard time spending everything I made. So I spend a lot, and I still, you know, my, my net worth goes up. Um, maybe not this year because my stocks are getting shellacked, but yeah, generally I don't stress about money, and I certainly don't stress about spending things. Also, spending You know, I don't— you don't lose all the money when you spend it. You buy a nice watch or you buy a nice car, you don't lose all of it. I don't look at buying a Rolls-Royce, for example, spending $400,000 or $500,000. I look at it as spending $100,000 because I'll sell it and I'll lose $100,000. I don't look, you know, if I buy a watch for $100 grand, I don't look at spending $100 grand. I look at spending $20 grand. I'll probably lose $20 grand on it.

00:40:54

If you had kids, would you think about it differently?

00:40:57

Yeah, to some degree. I don't know if I would change that much. I'm still— I still want to take care of myself, enough money to take care of my kids and do the things I want to make me happy.

00:41:06

Do you have a number, like an FU number?

00:41:08

Oh, my, my FU number was passed a long time ago. I mean, when I just— not— it wasn't that long ago that I was living in an apartment with my buddy. Maybe this was actually, at this point, probably 10 or 15 years ago. 15 years ago. And we were thinking if we could each make $10,000 a month, then we made it. I mean, that's just, that was, that's a high quality of life. That was my FU was $10,000 a month, $120,000 a year, $10,000 a month. We decided that that was FU. I'm good. That my, I'm living a very good quality of life at $10,000 a month. So I mean, I passed my FU money. Quite a while ago.

00:41:48

And you never changed it? You never—

00:41:50

No, no, I never— I'm not a goal— I'm not a financially goal-oriented person. I want to just live a high-quality life, take care of my friends, take care of my family, and do what I want to do. I don't really have particular financial goals. Never had, really, except for that one. That's honestly the only financial goal I think that I can remember having is the $10,000 a month. And so everything else has been icing ever since.

00:42:12

Can we play our game called Secure the Bag?

00:42:14

Sure. So you have to teach me how to play it.

00:42:17

You have to.

00:42:18

It's a light bag.

00:42:20

Get in there. Pick a paper.

00:42:22

Have you ever been ghosted by someone who owes you money?

00:42:27

Have you ever lent somebody?

00:42:28

Oh, yeah. I've lent dozens of people money. There are people when you lend them money that you think you may or may not get it back. I would never lend money to anyone if I didn't, if I wasn't okay not getting it back. And I, in many, and in, in 90% of cases I get it back because it's, you know, like, it's, it's, there's a reason why I'm lending it. I'm more than happy to do it and it's, and, and it's fine. There are instances where I lent money to people that I was pretty sure I wasn't going to get it back, and that's happened and that's never bothered me at all. So I wouldn't say ghosted, I wouldn't say ghosted because I, I wouldn't, I'm not going to chase someone down You know, if they can't pay me back, then I'm just going to take the L, and I should have known that going in. Yeah, so I wouldn't say they ghost me. I don't even—

00:43:13

you know, maybe this is actually a good opportunity to educate about how bonds work, because the riskier the person or the country or the company, yeah, the more interest rate you get back because there's more.

00:43:27

Oh, that's very— yeah, it's a good point. The more risk, the more reward.

00:43:30

So you wouldn't get it back, but you're not charging interest obviously to 90% of the time, no.

00:43:35

But if it's like a structured business, you know, thing, then yes. But no, my friends and family, shit like that, obviously no. I have in a couple cases recently, I won't be specific, but lent somebody to help them with a down payment. And so I'm charging a 5% interest on that. But yeah, 90%, which is less than the bank. Well, yeah, I mean, I'm just, I'm not really doing it for the 5%, but it's just that person, you know, I'm not giving away free money because people should be understanding the cost of capital. But yeah, I'm not trying to like, you know, squeeze an extra 1 or 2% out of it.

00:44:13

Makes sense.

00:44:13

Yeah.

00:44:14

I mean, the adage is like, when you lend a friend—

00:44:16

I've lent clients money all the time, but I protect it with a, you know, with a note, and it's never not worked out. In fact, I loan money to— I mean, I've loaned my clients probably dozens of times. We have a concierge service where we just front the money. Me interest-free. I don't want to even deal with the interest. They have a house, a $4 million house, they need— it needs $20,000 worth of work. I just pay the— for them everything, and then I get it back when it sells.

00:44:40

I'm not gonna bank Jason. That's it.

00:44:43

It's, it's— I think that's a part of just being a luxury real estate agent, is just you, you can front the money and get the work done, and then you get it back. Never been burnt, not once.

00:44:53

I've never met a real estate agent.

00:44:56

Well, I think we're the only ones that do that.

00:44:58

Who wants to give me money? Okay.

00:45:00

Yeah, well, it's just— what am I gonna charge you? No, it doesn't make sense. I just offer it to every single client. Now, if a client has a $2 million house and wants to do a $150,000 remodel, no, I'm not— and I'm not interested in that. But if it's $20,000— I mean, we just finished a house up, up in the Hollywood Hills here where it was even a wealthy guy, but I'm like, let me just— I'll do it all, and then we had to, you know, redo the just probably $20,000, $30,000 staging, cleaning it up, fixing the pool, landscaping, painting, you know, whatever. And yeah, so we just, it's like an investment for, yeah. Yeah. I don't know why I'm gonna get it back. I'm gonna sell the house. If anything, you know, it's more likely I sell the house. So it's kind of an investment in my, in my own success. Yeah.

00:45:46

All right. So I'll hit you up if you wanna sell your house.

00:45:48

You can gladly hit me up. I will fix your house up for you.

00:45:51

Thank you so much. Yeah, then you'll clean the poop. We have a dog, so, uh, if I—

00:45:56

I prefer not to clean the poop, but if I'm about to show it and there's poop, I will clean the poop. Have you ever felt guilty for making more money than someone you love?

00:46:05

No, no.

00:46:06

Plus, I'm extremely generous with, with the people I love, so they love that I am well— that I do well. And by the way, there's nothing more enjoyable with money than spending it on the people that you love. I find I get no more happiness. I don't think I have— well, I don't want to sound like I'm bragging, but I enjoy it very much. What's a cheap habit you'll never give up no matter how wealthy you are? Oh, my— well, ex-girlfriend now, but she still does this for me— cooks me slops, which is my favorite meal. It's just a plate of rice with marinara sauce and then ground up, you know, meat, like ground up beef. And it's— I go over there like once a week, we watch a, a show together, and she cooks me slops. I— if I got poor again, I'm not that mad at it because I would just eat slops like 5 nights a week.

00:47:01

That's like your ramen.

00:47:02

Slops is so much better. Try it. And you put some crushed red pepper on it. I love— oh my God, it's good. I've She is almost annoyed at how often I ask for it because that's all I want. That's all I want when I go over there. And she's a good cook, but I just want her to cook slops every time I go over there.

00:47:17

My cheap habit? I have so many. I'll order Postmates or DoorDash a lot, but like, I love a BOGO.

00:47:27

What's a BOGO?

00:47:29

A buy one, get one. I love a BOGO deal.

00:47:32

Oh wow. If I saw a BOGO, it would be a red flag for me that it's not good. Interesting. Yeah, you don't get quality in a BOGO. I'm a quality guy. I'll pay.

00:47:43

Okay, Mr. Slaps Guy.

00:47:45

Oh, fair. That's fair, actually. But I do like— if I'm gonna get a steak, I'll— then, you know, I'm not gonna get— buy one steak, get one free. Sure. I don't know.

00:47:51

I had delicious BOGO banana bread.

00:47:53

So can I just digress here? And I was just gonna say the Great White Banana Bread. It's the best banana bread I've ever had in my life.

00:48:01

It was the BOGO.

00:48:02

Oh, come on.

00:48:03

Where was the BOGO?

00:48:04

Well, now I'm eating my words. How did you get a free banana bread?

00:48:08

Oh, wow, there's a special, a BOGO.

00:48:11

Can we just tell the audience that, that there's no better banana bread on planet Earth, probably even in the solar system or galaxy?

00:48:18

Whipped honey butter with it.

00:48:20

Yes, I know. I go like probably twice a week to get it. Well, if you go, and then I get it, ask for it to be extra. Well I'm gonna push back on getting it to go.

00:48:29

Okay, because then you're—

00:48:30

because the best part about it is when it comes up warm and crispy.

00:48:32

It's warm because we live near Great White.

00:48:35

You can't— no, you need to go to Great White and you need to get it fresh with the butter, literally the whipped melting onto it, and the crispy edges that are still— my brother and I literally fight to rip off the edges and eat the crispy edges.

00:48:45

Edges are delicious. Then all we see is that's how it comes to my house with an extra one.

00:48:50

I don't believe that it's like Din Tai Fung. You got to go to Din Tai Fung. You can't get that dumpling. That's not perfectly hot at your, although I did have dim tai fung last night, but from Postmates, but no, don't, don't, don't ruin the banana bread experience. Go to go get it in person when it comes out hot and crispy. I'm adamant about this. You're not, you can't, you can't do that. You lost this argument, but yeah, I did lose the argument. Have you ever Googled your net worth? Yeah.

00:49:15

Yeah, of course.

00:49:18

There's not a, I don't think there's a wealthy—

00:49:19

what does it say?

00:49:20

$50 million.

00:49:21

Is that accurate-ish?

00:49:23

I guess so. I guess it's reasonably accurate. Although the interesting thing is it's been at $50 million for like 10 years. I'm like, do these people not think that I've ever made a dollar in the last 10 years? It's really weird.

00:49:32

Inflation.

00:49:33

Just put it—

00:49:33

look at his treasury.

00:49:34

At least bake in inflation into my network. Honestly, it's weird. You?

00:49:38

I've— no, never. Should we do it right now? Can you do your net worth? Yeah, never. I don't think anyone cares.

00:49:45

Oh, I've Googled myself. A lot. I Google myself to see what articles are out there, or if I get caught, you know, by TMZ or something, I'll go out and the next day, oh, I Google myself quite often just to kind of see what, what articles are out. Yeah.

00:49:55

It's kind of fun. Does it upset you?

00:49:56

I don't get upset by like, do you read comments? No, I don't read comments. That would probably upset me. I just don't read comments. You never have, or you've had to, uh, pretty much, I mean, in the last 10 years, there have been millions of comments probably, I imagine. About me or the show or whatever. No, maybe a couple dozen. I mean, maybe one time I got bored and I just looked real quick, but generally no.

00:50:19

Do you have Google Alerts set up? No, I have them, and then I—

00:50:23

oh yes, I do.

00:50:23

Folder.

00:50:24

Yes, I do have a Google Alert. I got an email. Yes, I do. I'm sorry, I do.

00:50:27

That's efficient. I'm gonna guess— so Morgan's Googling my net worth right now, but I'm gonna guess that it's not out there because nobody—

00:50:33

well, no, they'll all make it up probably. I guess it'll say— it's going to say like 2 million.

00:50:39

And yours is 50. Okay.

00:50:40

No, I'm just saying, because it just—

00:50:43

right. Did you Google my net worth before?

00:50:46

I've Googled people's net worth, and I was just like, the— if you're successful, they're gonna just throw 2 million at you. Yeah, it's not that accurate, but I do all the time. Like, I want to know, especially clients, you know, I'm like, oh, this football player, you know, what's— I want— let's see, what's it, you know, what's his net worth? I mean, listen, it's usually off.

00:51:02

Slightly suspicious that you guessed exactly what mine was.

00:51:06

Oh no, it's just because I've Googled a lot of people's net worth. Yeah.

00:51:08

And it's always $2 million. Okay, you're done with the game.

00:51:12

No, I like this game. Do you negotiate or do you get awkward and just pay? That's interesting.

00:51:18

Like with contractors?

00:51:19

Yeah, 90% of time I'm happy to pay full price because I think that that person's going to appreciate the difference more than me. And that's kind of like a, you know, utilitarian approach. But if it's something meaningful, like if it's— if I'm buying the Rolls-Royce, you know, and I want to try to negotiate $15,000, yes, I'm going to negotiate the larger items. I don't negotiate you know, smaller things.

00:51:40

You can negotiate a Rolls-Royce if you're buying it at a dealer.

00:51:43

Yeah, you're buying it. Yeah, you can negotiate everything, really. Yeah, when you buy a new car, you can negotiate it.

00:51:48

Yeah, but I thought that the sort of quota cars, like the Ferraris of the world, are non-negotiable because Rolls-Royce was one year old and I bought it at the Beverly Hills dealership.

00:52:00

And I looked online for a while and compared pricing. And, and also my insurance is going to try to pay me out and I'm going to negotiate that. I'm going to ask for more. I mean, on macro items, yeah, it's worth my time. But if somebody is asking me for— I'm going to, you know, whatever, I'm at, at some store and they want like $100, $150 from me, I'm not going to negotiate that. I want them to have— they're a small business. I never negotiate small stuff. But, and it's also depending on the business. If it's a small business, I'm never going to negotiate. If it's a valet, but you don't negotiate valet. But well, yeah, you do. Sometimes I pull up in front and they're like, oh, $50 to park up here. I'm like, Okay, you know, I'm not going to say, oh, $40, but, you know, he'll use that money better than I will. But larger things with larger corporations, 100%. Wealthy people.

00:52:44

Yeah.

00:52:45

And corporations, I'm going to negotiate against them for sure. They don't need the money any more than I do.

00:52:48

Do you feel like it's sport, like to win?

00:52:51

No, I just want to feel like I'm getting a fair price. I'm not— it's not a sport for me. I just want to—

00:52:56

sport for me, it's my only cardio.

00:52:58

I don't get off on it. I just want to be treated fairly. What's the most expensive mistake I haven't made? I haven't made that many.

00:53:05

You don't miss— made mistake? You don't make mistakes?

00:53:07

I don't really make mistakes that often. No.

00:53:10

What?

00:53:10

Because I think I don't really make mistakes that often. I can't think of a big mistake that I've made socially or professionally or financially, really. I mean, maybe I've made a couple small, but whatever. Nothing that— nothing like that pops up.

00:53:23

Like an investment, a relationship?

00:53:27

No, I've never regretted a relationship. I mean, of course you can say you've regretted some investments and some not, but I mean, you know, what's— overall I've been a huge winner in investment, so I'm not like— I've been very happy with my investment strategy, but I'm risky, so some, some don't do well. I think I shorted gold. Oh, most of— you know what it is? Sometimes I wish I'd held investments. So when Netflix and Facebook dropped to like nothing like a few years ago, I bought like a million dollars of each, and they would be like $4 million each right now, but I, I I was a little bitch and I sold. I got like nervous and I sold.

00:54:00

You didn't lose money though.

00:54:01

No, I didn't lose money, but I could have made— I lost potential.

00:54:04

You're mourning your paper.

00:54:05

I'm mourning my paper gains. Those are, those are just as real as a loss.

00:54:08

Illegal at Money Rehab. We're not allowed to do that.

00:54:11

That's just as silly. Why is that any sillier than losing money? It's the lost opportunity is just as valuable as lost money. So I mean, it's all the same. So you made money intellectually. No, I didn't. I did. I left millions of dollars on the table. That's no different than losing millions of dollars.

00:54:27

Yeah, but like, how do you predict when the high is going to be?

00:54:29

I know. So I'm not mad at my— I mean, just is what it is. Yeah. I mean, I don't stress out over investments. I'm not ever going to invest in anything that's going to stress me out. I'm not going to take those kind of risks. Has money ever ruined one of your relationships? No, it's only helped. I don't think any girl's ever been like, oh my God, you're doing too many nice things for me. Come on, I'm going to rewrite these.

00:54:49

Okay. What would you say a question should be?

00:54:52

No.

00:54:53

What's the most important financial question? What's the question I should have asked you but didn't?

00:54:58

I think that people think that a certain amount of money is gonna make them happy. I think what is more enjoyable is the slow struggle towards success. That is way more enjoyable. Even arguably more enjoyable than being successful. I think the most fun aspect of, of success is the slow climb. The, you know, every year, the grinding and get— and moving towards a goal and seeing yourself become more successful. And you're bringing up your friends with you and your employees. And that kind of joint struggle towards success is so enjoyable, it's so rewarding. I think that is way more fun than just being successful. That's why probably a lot of trust fund kids probably are a lot less happy than the people that are a lot less wealthy but are grinding towards success. I mean, the process is— you have to enjoy the process. And I, and I think that that was— that's the most fun.

00:55:54

Yeah, because there's a goal fallacy once you hit one goal.

00:55:58

Absolutely. That's why I don't do goals. I don't— that's why I don't do goals. It's such a—

00:56:02

you just opt out of—

00:56:04

well, because I— it's the process that's the fun part. It's the— it's definitely the process and the, and, and I— and the enjoyment of of the success. I don't know why people just throw a bunch of money. I guess if you have kids, you want to leave a legacy, but come on, your kids don't need, you know, $50 million. I mean, if you have some money, you should just be spending the shit out of it and, and, and not— and, and do it on your kids too. I mean, and your friends. I mean, why not? You should be— I don't know. I really, really think that, that especially now with, with AI creating, you know, where things are going to be so cheap in the future spend your money now.

00:56:38

Why wouldn't you spend it when it was cheaper?

00:56:40

Well, I mean, just start enjoying it because you're not going to be needing— you know, you're not going to be needing it much in the future. I really don't think you're going to be needing— you're still going to need first-class flights and things like that are going to be— you know, still going to have to spend money. Travel will still be expensive, although it'll all be— I mean, we won't have human, uh, uh, air— you know, pilots and stewardesses probably in 15 years, so that'll be a lot cheaper.

00:57:01

Or stewards. Or whatever. Come on, Jason, fire up your chopper to Orange County. No, no, after choppers.

00:57:13

I don't like choppers. That makes me— I just sweat the whole, the whole time. Not a chopper guy.

00:57:18

Are you scared of flying?

00:57:20

I don't love being in a chopper or a private jet. Yeah, I don't love being in a private jet either. I prefer a larger— it has to be a really large private jet, or I'll, I'll prefer commercial. I don't like the rocky, the rocky, you know, although I do fly JSX, which is pretty small, although I've had some pretty rough experiences in JSX. So yeah, I don't like small and I don't like choppers. I'll do a chopper if it saves me a ton of time, but I just, I swear, I just, I'm stressed out the whole time.

00:57:46

Well, I'm sure you're into like the tunnels that Elon's building that will get us the Boring Company.

00:57:52

I don't know. I, I think I'll just wait. I just, I'm really looking forward to autonomous vehicles. I want my, Autonomous Sprinter van.

00:57:59

What do you mean? I have an autonomous Tesla.

00:58:02

Yeah, but you have to be there. I want— no, I want to be able to relax, watch TV, chill out, and have no risk of an accident. And just have my, you know, my, my little cold soda right here, and my big-ass TV, and my massaging chair. And there's one other chair next to me, and it just drives me perfectly smoothly. I, you know, no slamming on the brakes, no risk of an accident. That— I'm looking forward to that. We're just a few years away from that utopia.

00:58:28

Here we come.

00:58:29

By the way, we're also going to all have our own drivers. We're all going to have our own chauffeurs.

00:58:33

We're going to need drivers.

00:58:35

That's my point.

00:58:35

My daughter's 1 years old. She's never going to learn how to drive.

00:58:38

That's my point, though. We're all— I mean, I'm just talking about the quality of life for people is going to go up so much. We're not just going to have Michelin-star chefs, we're going to have all have our own autonomous chauffeurs. It's good life coming up.

Episode description

Jason Oppenheim (real estate broker, founder of the Oppenheim Group— the brokerage covered on Selling Sunset) starts this conversation with a take Nicole was not expecting: it's a buyer's market, and he'd know, because he's been renting for the last three years himself.

In this conversation, Jason covers every hot-button topic in real estate. He unpacks how he thinks AI will disrupt real estate and why he believes humanoid robots will be showing houses within the next two decades. He gets brutally honest about the LA market, why wealthy people are fleeing major cities in droves, and shares the cities he thinks real estate investors should avoid.

He makes the case that renting is not "throwing money away" — in fact, he argues that in many cases renting is a smarter financial move. He and Nicole also debate whether there's actually a housing affordability crisis (Jason says we're misdefining it), how he thinks about money and happiness, and why he hasn’t changed his financial goals since he was broke.

Check out Nicole’s financial literacy course The Money School 

Find a Financial Advisor or Financial Coach from Nicole’s company Private Wealth Collective

Watch video clips from the pod on Money Rehab’s Instagram and Nicole Lapin’s Instagram 

Follow the Oppenheim Group and keep up with Selling Sunset on Netflix

Here's what Nicole covers with Jason: 

00:00 Are You Ready for Some Money Rehab? 

01:11 Is It a Buyer's Market? 

02:09 Why Wealthy People Are Leaving Major Cities 

04:10 Where Are They Going? (And Where NOT to Buy) 

05:38 Why Real Estate Is Not AI-Proof 

10:35 “At Some Point, There Is No Work.” 

17:43 Why Jason Loves 30-Year Treasuries 

19:00 The AI Deflation Thesis 

23:54 Is There Really a Housing Affordability Crisis? 

30:40 Rent vs Buy Debate 

36:21 Behind the Scenes of Selling Sunset 

37:06 Does Money Buy Happiness? 

39:24 Getting His Rolls Royce Stolen 

40:00 How Jason Thinks About Spending vs. Saving 

41:43 What Was Jason's FU Number? 

42:12 Secure the Bag: Jealousy, Googling Your Own Net Worth, Bad Investments 

All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments.