Transcript of Week 5 Picks vs. The Spread

Welcome to NFL Daily, where we try to learn from our mistakes, like picking against the Chiefs in Arrowhead. Just a bit on that in just a minute. Yes, I am here in the Chris Westling podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland. This is our weekly Picks, Man versus Model, Your Computer Model. But the first time we've done it in the studio, and it feels right, Cynthia.

Yeah, it was a little awkward. We were sitting in a way that was very unnatural before, but now it feels very... I feel like I've got a good space around me. It's just good. The vibes are strong. Things are good.

The vibes are strong. Cynthia's got her glasses on, which she doesn't even need. She just wears them to look smarter, which is preposterous. People can check that out on YouTube, but we're going to go through the pics. First, the bad news. We both went one and two last week. Moving on. Let's get to this week's pick. I feel good. Last week, I went into it. I got to admit, I wasn't confident. I wasn't loving my pics. The one pick we had together was Seattle plus three and a half. We tape this. That was a Monday night football game, we have to be a little careful because we don't know the full injury reports, and they ended up missing five defensive starters. I was like, Are we drawing dead here? So that was one and two. We'll get to the extra picks later. I feel great about my pics this week. So I will let you go first because I'm I'm sticking with the three I have. There's no indecision. These are three winners. So if you happen to pick the same ones, I'll just jump on board with you.

Well, really quick before we start, how did the box do? That's what America needs to know.

The box went one and one, which are my extra pics. Okay.

Yeah. The box is crushing.

The box is 11 and three this year.

Okay, so for my very first pick, did you like that? We had to make it a little bit dramatic here. I'm going to take Seattle to win by at least a countdown. I think right now it's six and a half, but I like a nice strong win against the Giants. I think a bounceback situation. We saw that Kenneth Walker is crushing life. Funny thing here that the New York Giants are one of three teams that have only allowed one rushing breakdown. I don't care. Kenneth Walker, he's going to change that this week, But I think this is a good one. And by the way, DK Metcalf, almost quietly, has had three games in a row of over 100 receiving yards. That is a Seahawk record. That's really great. We aren't talking about that enough. So, Gino, let's go.

Yes, there's mismatches all over the place against this giant secondary. They don't have a number one cornerback. Who are they going to put? Deontay Banks against Dike Metcalf. And then it gets a lot worse from there. I don't know if Adore Jackson is going to play in this game. Initially, my instinct was, that's a lot of points. The Giants aren't that bad of a one-in-three team. Then as we tape this, it's uncertain, but it's not looking good for Malik Nabors, and that Giants offense without Malik Nabors. It does sound like some Seattle defenders will be Not all. We'll see. So some injury concerns here, but I like Seattle. They are not one of my considerations. I am going with Ravens minus two and a half as my first overall selection here. Sometimes you don't need to get too complicated. This is the number one offense in the league, efficiency, according to DVOA, according to EPA per play. Their running attack is awesome, and it's against a defense that can't tackle week after week, that can't set the edge. Chuba Hubbard is getting to the edge. Miles Sanders is getting to the edge. You don't think Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry is going to get to the edge against this defense?

And so that, to me, is such a mismatch. And then when I think about the other side of the ball, yes, the Bengals' offense is playing well. That's the case against this. It's at home. It's a division game. There's familiarity. There was some success for the Bengals in the past in this match, although the Ravens did win both games last year. But then I look at the schedule that the Bengals offense has played against this year. It's the 28th easiest schedule for opposing offenses, that their offense has paid for opposing defenses. Panthers last week. It's been a lot of easy matchups for them. It's a big step up against the Ravens. I just think this is a wagon. I think this is one of those matchups. If it was in week 12, it would be five points, because at that point, we know the Bengals are a decent but flawed team with no defense. We know that the Ravens are one of the best teams in the league, and that's what I believe them to be. So I think this is a good value, two and a half. I love me some Ravens.

How far would you go with that? Because I'm with you at two and a half. Some places I've seen it's like three or four. I hate the number four, but whatever.

I would just go. I feel this. I feel this. I feel like Lamar Jackson rushing totals. I feel it. This team, they're soft, they can't tackle bad defense. They're linebacker with Dermaine Pratt. Okay, that's enough on the raven. That was a lot. I just feel good. That was maybe my favorite one of the years so far.

I'm glad that you got that off your chest. Yes. The Reignmaker is out for Baltimore. The Reignmaker.

I love it.

Well, I told you, I hear the number 4. However, my next pick is a line that's at 4, which is Chicago. I think they win over Carolina by more than that at home. Chicago has a very nice home win street going, which I don't actually care about at all in terms of predicting the game, but it is fun to tell people. I also think that, look, if you're looking at this defense, the Carolina defense, and you're thinking, Where am I going to find a source of success? Every time it's like, Shaq Thompson. Oh, he's hurt, too. Derek Brown. They just keep getting so injured along that defense that this is an opportunity for Caleb Williams to turn around some of his statistics on deep passing, downfield passing. So 10 plus area, 20 plus area. He hasn't been particularly great on those yet. Maybe this is a situation where he won't be under so much pressure that he could actually complete some of those. Dj More loves revenge. I don't actually know if that's true, but we're going to say it is. But there's I think it's just a number of ways here that I think it's going to be very hard for Carolina to...

To me, that just means a countdown. It doesn't mean four points. It might as well be five and a half. Sure.

I didn't know what to think about this game, but I think you're right that this Panthers defense is going to be one of the worst in the league. When I watched that bangles Panthers game last week, for instance, I don't even know if the bangles did that much, that well in that game, but they were completing short easy passes. Caleb Williams did that well last week. It was almost like they were starting back over with him.

He did it well. Yeah, 15 of 15 on 10 plus area or under 10 area passes. There you go. That's pretty good. Then if you look at what Andy Dalton has always done well in his career is what? Quick passes? Yeah. The bears are actually like fifth or sixth best at limiting yards from quick passes. So it just is a bad mismatch for the Panthers. And it's at Soulja Field, which I don't know, I think those bears fans, they want... If they could have anything to be like, Make Caleb Williams good now.

Well, yeah, just be patient.

Right. No.

We're all rooting for you. Yes. I'm going to see the bears in London next week. And so I want to win here. Get to three and two. Give me a little Caleb Williams pop because we know the Jags, they're not really provide in the pop in that Jags-bears matchup. So let's go, Caleb Williams. I think they get a win. And I think Andy Dalton has played really well getting rid of the ball quickly. But you're right, this is by far the toughest matchup he's had against a very good secondary. So I like pick. No crossover here. Okay. I'm going Saints plus five and a half. I like that one a lot. Now on game day view, which look, you could DVR it. You can save it. It's on Friday morning. It's on Sunday mornings. It's all over the place. It's our show on NFL Network. I'm taking the Saints straight up. Now, do I feel incredibly confident about them winning an arrowhead? No, I do not, although I think the money line would be fun in this one, too. But for our purposes, we're picking against the spread, and I love me some five and a half here.

Now, I've made this mistake before. They are going against Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead. But five and a half points, it's essentially a countdown. Nine out of their last 10 wins are by one score, which is it's under seven. So five and a half, that's great. Then you look at the underlying numbers, at some point, you have to just trust who's playing better so far this year. Saints, third in DVOA, Kansas City, 12. Epa per play, Kansas City, right in the middle, 13th, 14th, offense, defense. Saints, fifth, fourth. Now, that's getting boosted by those first couple of weeks.

Carolina was a little bit of a booster. That was an ego booster. That was a slump Buster, but there was no slump. Absolutely.

But last week, even, they score three offensive touch downs. They don't give up any. Their defense is a legit defense. For sure. Now, the case against it, of course, is they find stupid ways to lose. Both these teams went to Atlanta, for instance. I thought New Orleans looked much more dominant in their game. They found a way to lose. The Chiefs found a way to win. And that's where the five and a half points come in. I I really do believe the Saints are a better team. They just happen to have Patrick Mahomes not playing well, and Andy Reid, and the other team has Derek Carr and Dennis Allen. I'm going to talk myself out of this before it's too long, but I really do think the Saints are a better team. They're going to get healthier, I think, on the defensive side of the ball. Hopefully, Tateam Hill is back for their offense.

That's the Lynch pin for me for the five and a half. That's it, the Tateam Hill thing. Really? Yes.

I mean, the numbers are crazy when he's been out there this year, but maybe he just was out there in the easier for matchups. So, yeah, keep an eye on the Tateam Hill injury report stuff.

I can absolutely guarantee you one thing in this game, though. Yes. That after the game, the coach of the team that's facing the Saints is not going to say, Stats are for losers. That's true.

All right. That was Jason and Kelsey, right?

Did that hurt you personally? No, no, no. That was Raheem Morris last week.

That's right. Jason and Kelsey repeated it and then went on another rant.

Which is hilarious. The one thing I do really like in this game, I think it's a really low total. It's 42.5. I know both of these defenses are what's driving that, but that's still a really low number. I understand the Chiefs, they haven't been scoring a ton of points. We've seen the Saints go back and forth. But I think if you look at where the part of the Saints defense has been generous in terms of air yards per target, air yards per reception, that's where tight ends run. They've been generous to the tight end position. So I do think that theSurprises me. The score could be a little bit higher than that.

So the Chiefs, this is their first game where they go into it knowing they don't have Rashi Rice who's on IR. Although his time to return is undefined right now. It might not be a season-ending injury, which is very interesting. They don't have Pacheco. This is a slow offense with Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelsey out there. I like Alante Taylor in the slot. I like all the different guys.

I like Alante Taylor everywhere.

They're not going to get great pass rush on Mahomes, but that really hasn't been the case all year for teams playing the Chiefs, and they're still not getting it I think this is a secondary that can stick with these guys on longer developing plays. I really like this one, too. I like all my picks this week. I'm feeling good. If I go one and two this week, like I did last, I will have a mea culpa. I will apologize. I think the rally starts now. Minimum two and one. I'm feeling maybe a three and a week. All right, what's your last?

I actually think as of right now, New England is favored by one point in that game, but there's no Kyle Ducker. There. There's still Tyreek Hill. There's just a lot of things. And this is a defense that Mike McDaniel is very, very familiar with, the structure of the defense, how it works, what goes on, and just rushing against them. And by the way, unfortunately for the Patriots, they lost their center, too. This is also a team who's already been getting gashed in the middle of that O-line. So I just think the wrong team is favored. So I'll go ahead and take the point because I think Miami wins this game.

I took Miami in this game, too. I think that's a good pick. David Andrews is a huge loss. For them. Already the worst offensive line in the league. A team I think that Miami can look at and think, Man, all of our problems. We're not getting much edge rush. This is a matchup maybe where we can, but we can certainly get some push up the middle with Klaes Campbell and Zack Seeler. I think you hit the nail on the head with the matchup that McDaniel feels comfortable with. They've almost been playing scared the last couple of weeks. The Patriots might not have Jibril Peppers in this game. Christian Barmore is long gone at this point.

Matt Judon plays in Atlanta. You mentioned Ducker.Juan.

Bentley was the guy calling the signals. It has not been a good defense. And so I do think Miami looks at this matchup and thinks, Man, we can actually just find a win here. It'll be close. They'll ugly it up, the the streets, but I'm with you. I think the Dolphins will win.Not one of my picks, though.Oh.

I like that we're different.Glad.Just we're covering the whole league.Glad.

That you're not taking this one for me. I love the Bills on the road in Houston. I usually don't go for these pick them pick them pick them pick them pick Two good teams, but I think the Bills are a step above. Look, I had the Bills winning the Super Bowl. I had them losing last week. I've been on the Bills.Yeah, you're on it. This is one team I got to feel for. I think they're a top five or six team in the NFL. I don't think Houston is there yet. I like good teams coming off bad losses. I don't care about the numbers. I don't know if there's any numbers to that, but a really good team coming off of a loss. I like them rebounding. And then what's the way to beat the Bills? I think the Ravens showed it last week. It's a bad matchup problem. To be more physical than them up front, to push them around a little bit. They're a little lighter in the pants, the Bills, on defense. But they get Terrell Bernard back this week, apparently, Theron Johnson. At least they're practicing, so it looks good. The Texans can't run the ball.

We thought the Texans were going to be able to run the ball. First week of the season, they could. Joe Mixon gets hurt. Last three weeks, they're right back to last year. Then I look at the other side of the ball in the trenches. Offensive line for the Bills has been awesome.

Is Deon back?We.

Don't know if Deion Dawkins is playing.

That's a huge deal. That left tackle is like... That is huge.

Absolutely huge. But you know what? Will Anderson and Dineo Hunter haven't been blowing up game plans this week. And I think you can survive without one good offensive lineman. You can help out their backup left tackle. The rest of the line is really good. So I think they're winning those games up front on both sides of the ball. I think they're winning those battles. I like the Bills a lot, minus one. I think the Texans have been more rickety their record suggests. They win these last second games against the Colts and the Jaguars, and that's great. That's a great young win, wins for young quarterbacks, but I think the Bills are ready for this.

To me, this game is... It feels foggy for a couple of reasons. Number one, they lost Von Miller on defense. He suspended. So that makes a big difference. Number two, I don't know. This injury report reads to me like, what's that game you play with your kids? We're like, does he wear glasses? Dictic, guess who? I'm just like, I don't even know who's playing at this point, so I don't have a great feel on this one. And then further, if the Texans were to clean up their penalties, they have the most in the league. They have 40 total, 26 on offense. Yo, that's bad. If you were to clean that up just a little bit, you're putting yourself in a much better situation. So it's just hard when the problem is penalties. I don't know how you fix that, but I also know that that- It's been sloppy.

Cj Stroud and Nico Collins have individually made for it, but the operation has been sloppy.

Yeah, but what if you get it together this week? And then maybe Terrell Bernard or whatever, they're not 100%, that's just the thing where I feel like... I'm just like, What am I looking at here? I'm very familiar with the Bills, and I'm very familiar with the text, but I'm extremely familiar with the bills. It's like, who's playing safety? Is Taylor Rapp okay? Is he going to play?

I think Taylor Rapp is probably missing this game.

There are issues. I just don't have a good feel.

I don't feel good either. I'm going on the whole operation. I'm going on Josh Allen. I love Josh Allen. Mvp season. We're on opposite sides there, but that's not one of your three picks. We're both coming off one in two weeks. We're tied so far.We got to figure it out. The man, if I am that, and the computer model, we're tied so far, but we're under 500. We need to rally. We need to pull it together. If you have any others that you just like, you could throw them out. But yes, you mentioned the box. Every week, I have the teams that didn't quite make make my top picks. For some reason, my extra picks are 11 and 3. Yes, we went one and two last week, but the extra picks are 11 and 3. Only one and one last week, though. I like the Vikings in London. The more I thought about it, the less I've liked it. That was going to be one of my picks early in the week. The more I thought about it, Aaron Rodgers is playing really well. But I do think a team that has protection problems, the Jets identifying the free rushers and all that against Brian Floors.

And then the Jets defense hasn't played anyone. I'm I'm not sure about this Jets defense. They've played the Titans, the Patriots, and the Broncos back to back to back. I think there could be issues there against the run. So I like the Vikings. I like the Commanders.

You like the Commanders? I like the Commanders a lot. That was going to be one of mine. I just don't like the number three because then you could push, and that seems like it's crappy for our result. I also like Pittsburgh, two and a half at home against the Cowboys who are with that.

That one is to be the biggest mystery box game.

I'm afraid of. Micah Parsons, Marcus Lawrence, gone, gone. They're already tied for allowing the most rushing first downs in I know, but now we're favoring Justin Fields and a pretty flood over. I'm not favoring Justin Fields.

I love Fields, but over Dak. To me, that's just a toss-up, and I just want to stay away from it.

No, I'm favoring Justin Fields against a very banged-up defense compared to Jack Prescott versus a really mean defense. That's how I view it.

If I had to pick one, I'd be on your side. I'd take the Stealers. But that one, I just want to watch and enjoy the uniform matchup in the history. And so, yeah, in the box this week, my three My pick would be Minnesota minus two and a half, Washington minus three and a half or three, depending on where you look. I love that number. It actually was on the opposite side. Now that you convinced me out of it, I'm crossing it out. I had Carolina written down, and you convinced me out of it. I have to admit, I'm swayed.

No, it's good. I'm sorry. If we're wrong, I'm really sorry.

No, it's okay because it's-The box actually makes me feel better because everything in that box feels luckier. It has been luckier, but so I'm only going with two there. It's Minnesota and Washington because you made a compelling case against I want to root for the bears to win this game easily and Caleb Williams.

Yeah, because then in London, it'll be way more fun.

Thank you all for listening all week long on the podcast. We really appreciate you. Leave some reviews. Yeah, we like your review. Give us some five stars. I just love this community we're building, and everyone that has been enjoying the shows. We will be back on Sunday night to recap all the games, including that funding game, and the bears winning big. When the games are in London, you know football is back. Heck, yeah. See you next time.