Transcript of Week 14 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to NFL daily where fraud watch never ends. It's a way of life. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesseling podcast video with my friend, Cynthia Freeland. Yes. We will get to, 1 of the main characters of fraud watch all season long a little later with my picks.

How are you?

I'm good. How are you?

It is great to see you as always. You know, the studio feels a little emptier this week because I know. We don't have my son, but he is part of the standings where if you're watching on the YouTube show, we can look at our records last week. Cynthia and I, you know, struggled a little bit, 1 and 2. Walker's in first place now with a undefeated record on the season.

Does he is he also, like, a crypto investor?

Yeah. Come on. This is what happens if you if you have a child and they take your phone and they just start messing around with your phone and they take selfies. Doesn't matter. We're gonna bounce back this week, Cynthia.

What a lovely photo of you, by the way.

Thank you. 22.

Like a smug 1 of you on game day view, where where you're, like, looking like like but but this is a this is actually a very nice photo.

This is much better. And Yeah. Yeah. We we went 1 and 2 last week. Love it.

But we're up on the season's bill. I'm a couple games ahead of you. So you you better be trying extra hard to make correct picks this week. Alright. I will start the picks off this week a little different than what I normally do.

Let's hear it. It's a big spread. Oh, I do. A team I like, you don't know where I'm going. Yeah.

I do.

I'm going Steelers minus 6a half. You did you know?

I thought so. Yeah.

Well Really? Okay.

Only because

I love I love me some Jameis. Yep. And it's tough to go against them. Obviously, the Browns just won this game a couple weeks ago. But when 2 teams play in the span of a a few weeks, I definitely like 1 of those teams to to even it up.

Division game. Alex Highsmith is back. This pass rush is like the Avengers. I don't think people understand how good Nick Herbig is. Like, he is 1 of the best pass rushers in the league right now, and he's on the same team as TJ Watt.

And now you add in Alex Highsmith, and Hayward is playing like an all pro. And that matchup on a short week for Cleveland. I always pay attention to the extra rest and then the back to back road games for Cleveland. So you're coming from Denver. You go back to Cleveland.

You're back on the road Mhmm. Again. Mhmm. The Steelers obviously need this game, and it's a big number. The number to me, Cynthia, it's almost begging everyone to take the Browns.

I have a feeling I could be wrong, but that the public is gonna be on the Browns in this game with that big a number at 6a half, and I'm not taking the bait here. I think the Browns defense is meh. The the numbers don't lie. It's an average defense. Everyone thinks it's a great defense.

It's an average defense, and you're gonna be dropping Jameis back to pass probably 40 to 50 times in this game against the best pass rush, I believe, in the NFL because the Browns have no running game at all. I could even see the Browns winning this like, leading this game in the second quarter, and I'm sweating it out. But the turnovers will pile up, and I like, like, a nice 34 to 19 type of win for the Steelers minus 6a half.

Okay. Okay. I'm gonna do something that feels a little mean, but I don't care about mean. I wanna be right.

Yes.

I'm gonna take Chicago and the points.

Oh, I like that. That's that's 1 of my picks. I'm I'm gonna we're gonna join forces.

Okay. Good. I feel like it's a little mean, because, like, so many bad things have happened to the Niners this season. So I kinda feel like I'm, like, piling it on them. But

Just slap it on its head. You're being nice to the Bears Exactly. Fans. I mean, so many things have happened to them for a decade straight.

Fair. Fair. But, I mean, NFC North, blah blah blah blah. But, yeah. No.

I think I think that, number 1, we've seen Caleb Williams be a lot better against the blitz since week 11, which is when Thomas Brown took over. We've seen the run game improve. We've seen a lot of great things there. And on the other side of things, things just, like, aren't getting better for the Niners. I mean, Christian McCaffrey, now on IR, same with Jordan Mason.

Sure. Of course, Kyle Shanahan can pull, like, a rabbit out of his hat in terms of the run game, but, like, what about all the other parts?

Right. Isaac Arundo comes in there and maybe he'll be fine, but I think

Isaac Who's

he running behind? Trent Williams isn't practicing.

To be fair, Isaac Arundel could be, like, in bymageddon for Fantasy. You could probably consider playing him. But other than that, I think it's fade fade fade away.

Yeah. They are at a point in the season where the numbers are still part of the 40 niners team that used to be, and that team doesn't exist anymore. And you didn't mention the reason I'm going for them, and this is first time in a couple weeks that we are joining forces because this was my number 2 pick Oh. On the day the Bears. It's the fired coach principle.

I mean, I know we already had it happen once this season.

Yeah. But, like, that was a last week was, like, that was bad.

What?

When the coach said that he kinda doubled down on everybody makes mistakes in life. Yes. So, like, doubling down being, like, it was the right decision. Like, that's a wild thing to say. Right.

Like, it was clear. I thought CBS made a mistake in the broadcast. Mhmm. Because I'm, like, there's no way. Or, like, you know, the graphics thing didn't hit and, you know, there's a lot of technology involved.

No. No. No. CBS was on top of it. I I retract my statement about the broadcasters.

It was the coach. But to double down on that, the press are after, that that just shows you. I mean, if that's what he's willing to say publicly, what was it like in the actual

building? We have reporting that Jalen Johnson there, the quarterback for the Bears after Eberfluss in the locker room was trying to say, hey. We appreciate how hard you guys are going. Like, he started yelling at Eberfluss. So we've already seen a tangible difference since Thomas Brown took over, and so that's 1 fire code.

They have played their best 3 games of the season on offense in a row. They outgained the Green Bay Packers. That's a 9 win team. They got to overtime against the Vikings. That's a 10 win team.

They were in that game against the lions.

And the lions. I will take

the win seconds left.

That me to take the win, but oh my goodness. Not great.

Right. So I I'm all about the fired coach principle. It's worked already twice this season. We we saw it work for for the Saints last time around with Rizzi. I'm waiting.

And, do you think you wanna check some injury situations for the Bears? But it does sound like all their players that are keyed, DJ Moore, have have a chance to play.

DJ Moore and Deandre Swift are if they are both out, then maybe that

might matter. Keep an eye on that, but just the vibes are that probably And why

are they getting

4 points? Playing.

Why are the Niners getting so many points?

That's the thing that's crazy. At this point in the season, you just cannot give this 40 niners team

Is there a

Christmas gift? Here's the thing. I wouldn't be shocked if the 40 niners find a way to win this game at the end somehow because that's just who the Bears are at this point. But it'll be by 1 point. It'll be by 2 points.

I'm not

saying that. That number, and we'll come out on top.

I like it. I like it.

I I feel really good about that. And, yeah, Fred Warner's playing through a broken foot. We don't know Why

is he playing with a broken foot?

It is getting to that point in the season too that the the 40 niners, I think, are gonna start, like, shutting some of these guys down Yes. That are healthy. They're not

Please shut them down.

They're not quite there yet. But, man, the Koshy and Nang just looks angry and he looks miserable. So that's my second pick. We're already back to you for your 2nd pick since that's my 2nd pick.

Minnesota. I want Minnesota Oh,

interesting. Points. Okay.

I don't really like 5 point there's a lot of weird, like, 4, 5 point spreads this week, which blah. But I think Minnesota, it's a good 1 against Atlanta. They're hosting Atlanta. It's at home. Atlanta?

Yeah. Sure. They had a third of their season long sack total last week with 5.

Mhmm.

I don't think that that's a a real true indication of what's going on. But even so, we saw Sam Darnold have, like, a 130.3 passer rating against pressure last week against the Cardinals. Am I saying Minnesota's perfect? No. Am I saying Atlanta's bad?

Kinda. I'm saying that they're turnover prone. This has been a weird skid for them. I mean, Kirk Cousins hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in, like, 3 weeks.

10 turnovers. I

That's not a good that's a bad ratio.

I without even realizing this is the Kirk Cousins return to Minnesota game without thinking about that, I just started wondering, is this potentially the last start for Kirk Cousins this year? If he threw, like, 3 interceptions in this game against a great Brian Flores defense that mixes you up, you would think they would think about going to Pennicks. And it would I am not rooting for that. I want your pick to be right. I want them to cover, but I think it would be heartbreaking for Kirk Cousins' career as a starting quarterback to end in Minnesota getting better.

So what I am hoping for in this situation is that the Falcons defense re reverts back to who they've been all year, and that it's 37 to 26. And you you cover your spread, and Kirk is fine enough, and, and it's not that depressing of a loss, at least for Kirk. You know what I mean?

I don't know. He can cry all the way to the bank. The man has, like, the most guaranteed money ever. So I'm not, like, crying for him. Okay.

Okay. He's had a great career.

People say that all the time though about, like, hey. He's got a lot of money. I don't feel bad for them as a there's still people. They bleed. They have emotions.

Wow. Are we are we going there? Listen. Everyone needs a moment of empathy, Greg. But I will say, another quarterback would not have been given this leash of 3 games with this many turnovers before something would have been I mean, even Aaron Rodgers, they were like, are you gonna go with him for the rest of season?

No one's even asked that question about her cousin.

They they're asking. They're asking.

Not really.

Raheem's pushing pushing back. He he's staying strong. We'll see if he stays strong after Cynthia delivers another winner and they cover this thing. I'm finishing up with another spread in that point range, and I'm going with another favorite. I love this 1.

Miami minus 5a half. For a

second, I thought you were gonna say the Saints. I'm like, what?

No. I don't wanna the Saints. Yeah.

No. Stay away from that 1 for me.

I don't like that 1 at all. In fact, I kinda like the Giants, but

I agree.

Why bother?

I'm not I'm not bothered with either 1. I just hate

Love me some Dolphins minus 5a half. Yeah. We've been telling you about fraud watch all season long when it comes to the Jets. They are 3 and 9 on the season, Cynthia. I I saw a stat that they have been favored in 9 of those games, and they've only won 3 of them.

They are the first team ever to accomplish that feat. To be

fair Congratulations.

That was actually courtesy of, my friend Danny Heifetz at the the Ringer Fantasy Football. I love it. I wanna give him credit for that stat. That's a crazy stat. Finally, the numbers have adjusted.

5a half seems like a normal number to me. They're going up on the road against a road team. But I do think there's a lot of reasons to believe this is a blowout. The last Jets offensive game over 300 yards was October 27th. They are a bad offense.

That was against the Patriots, by the way, and they lost that game in the division on the road like they're gonna lose this 1. Last week, the only reason they were in the game against Seattle was special teams. They got about 14 points worth of, value from their special teams. That's the only reason they were even in it. The the Dolphins have extra rest.

Love that. They're coming off a Thursday night game. They're on they're at home, and then the injury situation is very problematic for the Jets. No sauce Gardner at practice early in the week, no Breeze Hall at practice early in the week, and no Elijah Vera Tucker early in the week. And Morgan Moses, an another tackle on their team, is very questionable.

The Dolphins have been hearing all this talk about, oh, you're soft. You're soft. I think this is a good team. I think they're gonna respond to a bad loss, and they've had 2 very similar matchups in my mind at home in very recent memory. Their last 2 home games were against the Raiders and against the Patriots, 2 of the other worst teams in league along with the Jets.

And what did they do in those games? They won comfortably. 68 points they put on the board on offense in those 2 games, only gave up 34. Think their defense is good enough that the the Jets just aren't gonna go crazy on anyone. The the Dolphins' defense is okay, but the Dolphins' offense is gonna go up and down the field.

I'm putting their over under of their points. For me, it's about 35. They're gonna put about 35 on the board. Do you think Aaron Rodgers can keep up? No way.

I like a little 34 or 35 to, like, 14. This thing's a blowout. Fraud watch is is on. It's been on all year for the Jets.

Let's go. Aaron Rodgers turned 41. So, I mean There we go.

If he

was a pumpkin at 40, he's a rotten pumpkin at 41. Right? I mean, obviously, in a whole week, it's made anyways. No. I'm I'm with you on that.

I think that I have a really comfortable win for them. Are are you ready for my last 1?

This is

this is the, break Greg Hart's special.

Oh, it's the the Cardinals?

Yeah. No one's taking the Seahawks.

Oh, you're taking the Seahawks.

Yeah. Well, that's a great man. Too.

I like that.

You think the Cardinals are gonna win, though. You told me that. I did.

But I'm rooting for that to be wrong. Sometimes the head and the heart are pretty off. And when you look at the spread, the Cardinals are favored in this game right by 3 right now.

Oh, it went up to 3?

I've seen it was

2a half. Fine by me. I'll get even better with that. Depends on what Yeah. Sports really you're looking at.

I I'm looking at DraftKings and, minus 3. That's what we've been going off all season long on this show. So that's where they're at. And I love it. The it just happened a couple weeks ago.

They beat them 16 to 6. It's gonna be a defensive game, I think. What do you think?

I have 20 oh, sorry. Excuse me. I have 23 to 21. Okay. So 45 total points, which is slightly over, I think it's 44a half, where the line is right now.

In this game, I'm I'm very interested to see if they can figure out how to stop Jackson Smith and Jigba. That is he runs exactly where they have huge vulnerabilities. I don't think in 2 weeks that they've shored those up. And now, you even have Kyler Murray throwing turnovers. Why are you turning the ball over?

Mhmm. You

had in 2 games, he had the same number of turnovers as the 10 before thereby.

Little regression.

I mean, just not just not an easy that's a really hard way to win. I know their defense looked a little bit better last week. I understand. I'm not saying they're not capable of doing it. This is I'm picking an underdog here for a reason, but, you know, it's it's, I I just think there are too many ways for Seattle, especially post buy.

They've really on defense, they're getting healthier. They're getting Uchenna Uwosu back. Like, it's pretty good. It's pretty good stuff for you.

I love it. Look. You have them winning straight up. So

I do.

If people like a little value, you could also look at the Yeah.

It's even more valuable there. I'm just saying, like, I'll just take the points because we why not? Right? Absolutely. In our little standings, I don't get extra points for picking them straight up.

No. You So

why would I why wouldn't I give myself a little insurance?

You you should. We're come you're gonna come back, Cynthia. You're over 500.

Not worried.

We're doing well.

Not worried.

We got 5. A little bit of a speed bump. Hey. We might be doing this in the playoffs. You know, this is this been a hit.

The the

you Obviously.

YouTube numbers are cranking up. The podcast numbers are cranking up. A couple other games I I kinda like just I'll I'll put some extra picks out there.

I forgot

to last week. I do I kinda do like the Giants, plus 4a half.

I'm with you.

I kinda like the Cowboys, actually. When I saw the injury report and Orlando Brown is not gonna play for the Bengals

Chase is now on that injury report.

Well, that would change my mind. But 5 and a half points

That would also probably change the line, to be fair.

That maybe I maybe I I I take that back. Cowboys, it doesn't give me a good feeling. But my gut says that's too many points to give the Bengals. But what I do feel good about as an extra 1 is just the chargers plus 4. I just think that's a field goal game 1

way or another.

Their their defense is actually better than Chiefs defense right now. So I like How do

you feel about back to

the How

do you feel about that 12 point spread in

Stay away? Eagles. Yeah. Stay away. I think that I think Bryce Young, it sounds crazy, but he's playing too well.

And the Eagles have been playing these big time games. Maybe just a little bit of a letdown spot. Maybe Bryce just hits a touchdown at the end to cut it from 17 to 10. You know what I mean? It's not really close, but that that's a stay away from

Also, the Eagles, how, like, crazy is this? I was, like, 4 of their next last 5 games are home.

I love this Eagles team.

They get to sleep in their own bed.

It yeah.

They're comfortable in in Philadelphia.

It's crazy how how good this Eagles team is right now. I'm

feeling good about my Super Bowl pick.

It's a I

think them to a It's

a little scary. Well, don't feel good about that.

Why?

Because I I know in your heart, you want something

very different. Want. I'm just saying I'm happy Okay. That I like, I'm I'm good with being right too.

So Cynthia's picks, to recap, she finished up with a golden Seattle Seahawks plus 3 on the road in Arizona. She's got the Minnesota Vikings favored by 5a half at home against the Falcons, and then we are joining forces on the Bears plus 4 in Santa Clara. My other 2 picks on top of the Bears plus 4 are Steelers minus 6a half. I feel like I'm I'm zagging a little bit where people will be zigging. I like this pick, and I also like the Dolphins covering the 5a half at home against the Jets.

That's it, Cynthia.

We did it.

You're moving on to 1 of your million other jobs. Check us out on NFL game debut. That show also goes up on YouTube as just week 14 picks. I've been noticing a lot of people are watching it on YouTube too.

Game day views on YouTube?

It is. Be and they don't call it game debut, but people were complaining in my comments that it wasn't up on Thanksgiving week. And and then I went and looked, and, yeah, we're getting a lot of lot of views.

Shut up.

But also check out Cynthia's, YouTube channel, numbers game, and, of course, check out NFL daily and subscribe to the the YouTube and like us, you know, on your Apple phone or Spotify, whatever it's gonna be. 1 of my favorite people in the world. I'm looking forward to spending

Tell Walker I said hi.

Of the season with her. I will I will tell him, and I will let him watch this show where, yes, he is in 1st place at at least for 1 week. I don't know if I can can let that void the state earlier. Yes. When you're getting outshined by your own progeny, you know football is back.

We'll see you on Sunday.