Transcript of Week 10 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to NFL Daily, where we definitely believe in the fired coach principle. I'm Greg Rosenthal in the Chris Wesley podcast alongside my friend, Cynthia Brio.

The fired coach principle?

Oh, yeah. We'll get to that in just a minute.

I know where you're going with that.

You know where I'm going.

Obviously.

The dead coach bounce. It's coming up in this show. But very happy to be next to my friend Cynthia, and happy for once to be recapping our records on this Man versus Model segment that we do each and every week. Look at us. I finally had an undefeated week. Let's go. It was coming. It was slowly coming. I had a 3-0 week last week, 14 and 13, just over 500 on the season. Cynthia keeps stacking up those 2-1 weeks. A lot of winning weeks lately. Between the two of us, 5-1 last week.We're feeling good.It's pretty good. Pretty good. We're going to try to build on that.

Yeah, we are.

Three games against the spread. That's what we do each week. We joined Forces last week, Fading the Cowboys. That was smart of us. We both hit that, so that was a good job. So we could agree on one of these pics, but I'm going to let you take the first one.

Let's do it again. Okay. I'm Fading the Cowboys again.

Oh, yeah. So am I?

I have the Eagles covering the seven and a half point spread. I think that is a ridiculously low number. Are you thinking you need higher one now?

No, that's one of mine, too. I saw it was at seven when I looked this morning, but yes, go ahead.

Yeah. So whatever. Seven, seven and a half. I'm fading them either way because that is actually the same thing, right? Seven, whatever. So long story short, I'm just saying The Eagles here are in much better position to take advantage of a reeling Cowboys team. I think a lot of changes are coming their way, even though at the trade deadline, they were buyers and not sellers. I love your face with that. I was hoping to see what you would say about it. But long story short, I can't. Eight points? No.

We're joining forces again because this was the one I felt best about. So once again, we're going against the Cowboys. I think it's going to come in handy. Just give it to me. Inject this one into my veins, this game. So it's one thing just like looking at the football of it all. I think just the football of it all, taking Dak Presga out of the mix. But even if he was in the mix, if this was four or five with Dak Presga, I would love to do Just how these two teams are playing, Eagles as a top 10 type of team in total efficiency, Cowboys as a bottom six or seven type of team in total efficiency. The two line plays, like the offensive line of the Eagles versus this Cowboys D-line, even if Mike is back, total domination. And then vice versa. The Eagles defense has been playing a lot better lately.

Can I ask you an unanswerable question? Why isn't it Trey Lance?

Okay. I think it will be in a couple of weeks because Cooper rushes better at playing quarterback at the NFL. He's an okay backup.

Okay, let's just... Hold on. We're getting off track here, but I want to understand this a little bit. I'm Mike McCarthy. I have... Dak is out. He's hurt. So I have a chance here to get a free look at who's on my roster. I already know what Cooper Rush is. Yeah?

Yeah. He's just worried about saving his job. The little chance that he has, Cynthia staring at the camera like she's Jim from the office. Yeah, he just thinks the best chance would be...

Yes, I am John Krasinski. That is my new That's her ego.

The best chance, I think, would be winning games that you're not expected to win. And he thinks Cooper Rush gives him a better chance to do that. Although you could also argue the only chance you would ever have is do something creative with Trey Lance and make Trey Lance look good. But what are the odds Mike McCarthy could do any of this.

But wouldn't you say, Okay, I'm Mike McCarthy. Let's make Trey Lance look awesome. So then I have this great trade bait for later and see, Ha ha, look what I've done. I've created value for you. I don't know. Just maybe somebody somewhere can explain this.

No, you're absolutely right.

Maybe somebody somewhere can explain this.

The process with the Cowboys is all wrong. It's why getting Jonathan Mingo is all wrong. It's not about, Oh, wow, this is a cost-controlled contract. That's why it costs the same as Deirdre Hopkins.

It's the same as Deirdre Hopkins.

It's like, Okay, but you got to take into account he's cheap for three more years. Yeah, but you got to take into account he can't play, that he can't get open, that the tape is brutal. And teams always overvalue their college evaluation of a player when the NFL tape is so much more important.

But why would I want to admit I'm about anything? Why would I ever want to say, Hey, maybe I got this one wrong?

Well, come back to us. If both Cynthia and I get this wrong-Then we deserve to be. We deserve to be. We're feeling good. We're now one and oh when joining forces, at least in the last one week. It's a grinthia. I think we did join forces earlier in the season. This is where you need a coach to get creative. Offensively, Mike McCarthy is not that guy. This isn't a game I don't think the Eagles will play with their food at all because it's the Cowboys. It's their rivals. That's right. Hertz has been very composed lately. A lot of big plays. They've had dominant stretches. I know they messed up at the end of that Jaguars game, but from the second half of that bangles game through the first half of that Jaguars game, they were a steam rolling team. All right, we're both on the eagles. Give me your second pick.

Well, do you want to...

That was my pick, though, too.Okay.We each have one each.Okay..

Well, if we did golf rules, you should have actually started this off. It's fine. Whatever. Minnesota and the points, please.

Okay, so now that we're I'm taking food from a baby.

I want to keep our good record going. At the moment we're taping this, we do not think that Trevor Lawrence is playing.

No, there's no reason to. It's a shutdown now. It's up to a shutdown. Fine.

Yeah, you're good with that. Fine. Give me a countdown. Sure. I mean, is Aaron Jones playing? Yeah. Okay. Is Justin Jefferson? Okay. Yeah. I mean, I'm not scared by anything that could be happening. Or is it C. J.

Beather? Who is it? It's got to be Mac Jones. Right. But then-You would think, although they haven't announced it, and then C. J. Beather behind.

And he said, the tree definitely is like, We wanted to get him back on this roster to be the backup? I don't know. All I'm saying is, I'm not scared of Mac Jones.

I wouldn't be either. I like that one. I should have written that in my box. Maybe I will. I'll join you.

You have to do it in a fake midwestern accent, though. Minnesota.

Minnesota. There you go.

Getting seven points. It's even better than I thought it was going to be.

It's funny because they had such bad vibes. I hate talking about vibes when we're talking-Vibe check. Analysis and everything, but it's one of the reasons why I feel so good about the that the vibes of their starting quarterback saying, We effing stuck, and Mike McCarthy slamming down, and them just making mind boggling decisions in terms of their play calling with the fake punts and everything. The vibes are down horrendous. I give Doug Peterson a little credit.Vibes.

Are low. Vibes are low.

Steve Weishe and I were there as they were getting steam rolled in London, and that team seemed so disconnected. And they've actually played pretty hard since then. Even in last week's game, they could have laid down when they were down big against the Eagles, and they battled back a little. So they've got some players. I think they'll try, but that's not going to be enough when you have Mac Jones behind a bad offensive line against Brian Flores' defense.

Yeah. I mean, I just don't think that there's anything... I'm not scared of this often. I was on Minnesota side. It was only four points when it was Trevor Lawrence, but I was on Minnesota side for more than four points when it was Trevor Lawrence. Why would I not think that with a change of quarterback, that seven would be very achievable?

Okay, I like that. That was not one of the ones I wrote down. I'm still debating I'm being on my third pick. I'll see if you take it, but my second pick is something more powerful than Xs and O's. It's believing in something more than just what's on the field and the players. It's believing in a higher power.

You got to ask. Patrick loves momentum.

No, it is the fired coach principle. It's the fired coach bounce. If ever there was a fired coach bounce, it is Dennis Allen. Because based on the reporting that's out there and piecing a few things together, I believe that the players essentially fired Dennis Allen. That literally there was a connection. The reports have come out that it was essentially ownership. The GM, the front office, didn't disagree, but there was conversations between ownership and a lot of the players. I mean, these players helped to get rid of this coach, whether indirectly or directly. I think it was directly, they're going to be playing their hearts out. Now, normally, I would say this is such a great spot for the Saints because of that, no matter what. Then you throw in the Falcons factor. This is a rivalry game. You throw out the records in the rivalry game. Every Saints, Falcons game comes down to an insane play that you can't believe happened at the very end, unless it's Jameis Winston calling a countdown on the goal line for Jamal Williams. That was actually a blowout, but that was an insane play at the end. The number here is four.

Saints are plus four. They don't have to win the game. I'm going to pick them straight up on our show, game day view, just to be spicy. I don't feel as good about that as I do about getting plus four, but they did have some good players come back, too, Cynthia. Ceezia Ruiz returned last week. I hope Lucas Patrick is back for this game. He was in and out last week. Tateam Hill was back, and I do think it'll be their defense playing. I But I do think the division, familiarity, the rivalry game, and the higher power that is the fired coach principle that they cover this for.

My only problem with that is the Marshawn Latamor not being their piece along with-He's hardly ever there anyways. I get it, but it does take a difference, make a difference. It takes a lot away from them. Also, they just haven't been tackling on defense. I still have not seen them be really stout with their tackling. I don't think that was a, Hey, guys, let's band together to get Dennis Allen fired by not tackling these guys. I don't know. I'm with you in the fired coach principle. The math is different, however. I get it. It's not one of mine that I feel really strong But tackling might be an effort thing, a little bit of a-It's absolutely an effort thing.

Let's be totally focused on the details. We got some really prideful veterans, Tyron Matthew, Cam Jordan, Carl Granderson sending out Instagrams saying, This is me walking into work this morning, and he's singing and dancing.

How bad was Dennis Allen if they're doing this stuff? I don't know, but I- These are grown ass men. Sorry. These are grown butt men. It's fine. They're not like young ones. I mean, they're young, but they're not like the new guys on the team.

This is their Super Bowl. If I was going to pick the Saints to win one game the rest of the season, this is that game.

I'm with you, but I'm just very confused about... I don't know. It just seems like a lot of effort. You know what's funny? Maybe I'm not influenced enough, but I have not used social media at all this week, not even a little bit. So I haven't seen-Smart mental health move. Listen, I got to protect the mentals. So I haven't seen any of the player stuff. So I'm only hearing it second-hand, which is actually, maybe I need to come get all of my new-No, you can't put that into the model.

The model needs to be unemotional. No, the model is always unemotional.No, don't go again.

Sometimes I like to see... I've literally only been reading press conference recaps that we get in our email. That is where I have been this week. I have namasteed it.

Smart. I think that was a healthy and-Sometimes.

Sometimes I make good decision.productive move.

You make great decision. Just look at your fiancé. All right, look at your dogs. The dogs. All right, your third and final pick.

My third and final pick.

I think I was going to do one that was a little less spicy, but you know what?

I'm feeling quite spiceful right now. Okay. So I'm going to take Denver in eight points.

Okay. That's one of the two I'm debating as my next pick. Really? I think now I'm going to go off of it.

You should go off of it so then we can get more great content.

That was where I was leaning for most of the week. I love it. You explain why you love it.

I think Denver last week, they got routed. We get it. But they were doing some weird stuff. They were doing run blitzes, not their usual pass blitz. I don't think they win, but I think eight is too much of a difference. I think it's more like five or four even something like that. We haven't seen anything from this Chief's team who's undefeated and maybe looking ahead to next week for Buffalo. This is the classic trap, trap game situation. So I just don't think, while I believe that the Chiefs probably win, I And they have not been winning the easy way at all this season. They do not like to take the easy way out. They do not like to make their fans not have a heart attack. They're winning close games. Their defense is really good, but so too are the Broncos on defense. Their defense is way better than it looks against the Ravens. That was a weird outlier of a game. Remember last year we saw a 60 pointer against 60 burger with a freaking Dolphins, and that was not indicative of who they were. And if you extracted all the Derrick Henry data from what they've done this season overall, even without Barron Browning, I'm not worried about their ability to get some pressure.

I'm so with you on this one. Last year, these two teams faced off against each other twice in three weeks. The Vance Joseph led Broncos, held Patrick Mahomes to 14 points a game. Now, that was early when the Chiefs were struggling. They never totally got over. But I do think that matters when it's the same coaching staff. The Broncos beat them actually in one of those games, 24 to nine. So they split last year. They weren't giving up points. This is a better Broncos defense They're on a short week, Kansas City is. They played 83 plays on offense last week. That's always on my radar when there's a huge play total, and everyone always focuses on the defense. For instance, you can look at the Bucs defense is going to be tired. They're all the defense is going to be tired. They played 83 plays. Well, offenses can't get tired. I mean, 83 plays.

No, offenses don't get tired. Don't you know that? They get tired. Only defensive players get tired.

So short week. We had 83 plays. It's a division matchup, which I think I'll always- Throw the record No, don't throw it out. No, don't throw it out. But I think it shrinks the margins a little bit. Some history. I'm with you. I think the Broncos are a good enough team that they bounce back. That was going to be my third pick.

But I think you should go off of it because then we can-I will.

We're not going to-I want to talk to you on it. That'll be in my box.Put it in the box.in my box, the Broncos plus 8, because I did agree that was probably going to be my third pick. But now I don't feel as comfortable here because it's not a homer pick. But the bears are so bad offensively that I'm taking the Patriots and the points.

Can I say something that's a little off-topic here?

Please.

Can bears fans keep their grubby bear paws off of my offensive coordinator until at least the end of the season, please? I want Ben Johnson to get a look at a head coach if that's what he wants, but not till the end of the He's in Bear's fan. Get out of my mentions about that. Keep your grubby bear paws off of him.

I would want him totally out of the division in general. If I'm Ben Johnson-Get out of my grubby bear. I don't want to be in the NFC North going up against Lafleur and O'Knowl and Dan Campbell.

But I know Bear's fans want it, and I'm taking it as a big compliment, but not yet.

Everyone wants Ben Johnson. Hold. Saints fans will want him.

He's not going to the Saints. He's not stupid. That cap situation is-Yeah, it's going to be tough. Atrocious. They have 39 million for Marshawn Latimore, man.

So this one's tough because it's going to pain me even more if the Patriots don't cover this six because I root for them. But the bears are so bad offensively right now. They're lost. And you can look at what they did with those couple of games against bad defenses. The Patriots are a bad defense. That tape they put out there last week against the Cardinals was embarrassing. The effort from some of the receivers hasn't been great. They're not on their details. The offensive line is bad. Caleb looks a little shooketh, I would say, because things aren't happening in front of him, how they're supposed to happen. Drake Bay, to me, looks more comfortable if we're looking between the two rookie quarterbacks. And so they just are a team that has so many problems that I love to just take points against a team with that many problems. I know defensively, they're better. I would still pick them to win, but six points is too much for me. I'm taking the Patriots.

Well, the things that I feel strongly about in this game are Ramondre Stevenson still being worth a fantasy play, same with him potentially getting in the end zone because Andrew Billings is not playing. That's their big defensive tackle. That's a big, huge, massive deal. And also, if Monte sweat doesn't play, it will change how I feel about how close this game is. I still think the bears win because of their defense. They do maybe get some of that secondary back that they've been missing. That's a big deal. Plus, I do believe that they're going to get some of these heavier personnel formations down, like maybe use 12 once in a while, maybe throw an extra lineman out there to help your guy know what's going on. It hasn't looked pretty on deep passes. A lot of that is because Caleb Williams has been running for his life. Help him out. Help a rookie out.

Right. Their EPA per play numbers, it's everything. I think he's part of it. I think he's holding onto the ball too long sometimes, and no one's comfortable. So it's the coaching, and it's not working on what's happening with Caleb. Yeah, maybe I'll be wrong. It is not always the best thing to go off of vibes, But the vibes there are so horrendous. Sometimes, vibes like the Saints last week with the Panthers. I don't know how they lost that game, but somehow the power of the vibes were so strong that they found a way to lose that. What's happening? Matt Iberfluss is holding that play sheet so tight right now. The players seem so unhappy. They're asking DJ more if he's lost the locker room. He's like, I'd like to say no. I mean, that is all concerning. I just think this game It would be tight. It wouldn't shock me if the bears lose this game outright just because of all the negativity. So I will take the six points. That'll be my third two recap.

But wait, don't you want the Patris maybe not to win this? Because right now, they're sitting pretty at pick number one.

That's true. It's a long way to go. They'll probably win one game at some point the rest of the season, maybe. Yeah. It would be nice.

Don't give it to the Panthers.

It would be nice. Steal it for yourself. You got a long way to go here. You already have a quarterback.

That'd be fun.

Yeah. And you have the first pick, and maybe you can trade down, pick up a ton of pics. I'm just saying. I don't know what you're trying to consider. Absolutely. You took the Eagles. I took the Eagles. We're aligned there. We're both-It's a grinthia. We're at minus seven, according to what it dropped.

Great. Taking it minus seven.

The Vikings, you're taking at minus seven. Then we both like the Broncos. Officially, you will be the only one with the Broncos. Plus eight. My three picks were the Eagles. We're together. Then the Pats plus six, and the Saints plus four. Now, this is a week where I had a lot in the box because I'm coming off a three in a week, you end up feeling more confident. That's right. And suddenly everything looks big. It's like when you're hitting threes.

Yeah, this is fine.

The hook just looks a little bigger. I like the Rams minus one on Monday night. I just think they're a better team than the Dolphins. I know you're on the other side of that.

I am on the exact other side of that.

Don't care. Ram's probably getting two offensive linemen back for this game, which is a really big deal. We'll see, but they're practicing. It sounds pretty optimistic that they could get Steve Avula and Jonath Jackson back. I think they're better. I just think the Dolphins are a team defensively that are finding ways to lose. It'll probably be a close game, but I like the Rams to win. Then going over to Berlin. I like the Panthers, plus six and a half. You're going to give me six and a half points as a Giants team, and Bryce Young has been playing better lately. I think he's played better the last couple of weeks. I think that ends up being a close game, and the Panthers cover the six and a half. And then you threw the Vikings in, so that's going to be in my box, too.

You know what's hilarious? I actually think Daniel Jones throws for over one and a half touch downs in that game.

Sure.

I could see that being a-It's at four games where he's done it.

More of an entertaining game than people would expect because Theo Johnson, Malik Nabors, the Giants defense, finds a way to mess things up. Bryce Young is playing a little better, and it's something like 26 to 22, and they cover that. 26, 23.

I just think Daniel Jones, two touch downs. Okay.

Cynthia is going strong on the two touch downs. I know.

It's random.

That is it for our Picks, Man versus Model, week number 10. We're on a roll. We're both over 500. Let's keep this winning streak going. It has been a great week here on NFL Daily. We said goodbye to our good friend Randy Chávez, so we wish him all the best in his future endeavors. We will be back on Sunday with a recap show. Nick Shook, Patrick Claibon.

Momentum.

Yes, and all the momentum you can handle. Look, when I'm picking team to start imploding, you know football is back. See you then.