Transcript of Week 11 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to NFL Daily, where we are on a roll, Fading the Cowboys.

I am Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesling podcast studio with my friend who joins us for our Friday Picks show every week. Cynthia Freeland. Hi. How are you doing? On a little bit of a roll here.

Hey, that's how we When we join forces, fading the Cowboys the last two weeks, we are 2-0 each.

A combined 4-0, if you wanted to count our records. But I don't know if you know this. I haven't told you this. I went 3-0 again last week, so I am on a 6-0 You're going to tear. You're also doing great as well. You've had four out of five winning weeks, so we both are well in the winning margin for the season. It is all happening, Cynthia. What is going to be your first pick? We picked three games against the spread each and every week.

Okay. I think this week, my starting point is going to be fading the Dallas Cribs.

Oh, okay. I wasn't sure if I was going to go there again or not? But tell me why.

I mean, to be fair, it's hard. Seven and a half is a weird number, but I don't care. I have it for more than that. I ultimately believe the fact that even Even though the Dallas defense has gotten some pressure, I just think with Nico Collins coming back, they're going to treat this as a, let's get Nico back. They have the best, so a second best in terms of quarterback to wide receiver and passer rating. So 133.3, that's what happens for C. J. Stroud when Nico Collins is there. And he hasn't been on the field. So I think they're going to treat us like they would treat maybe like not a preseason game because that's not what I mean, but like integrating him back into the lineup. Run all the routes. Let's get targets here. Let's get targets there. Like, this is a It's a great opportunity for that. Plus, you can run on the Cowboys and Joe Mixon turns out he's a running back.He's.

A great running back.A running running back. The fact that they haven't been able to get their early down run game consistent. There's a lot of lost stuffs and negative run.Yeah.

But that's likeThat's against good teams. But you have to also realize, lines are very good at that. I understand that it's weird saying that as a lines fan. I almost feel like I'm lying, but lines are really good at that. Yeah, they're great.

No, you're absolutely right. I I had the Cowboys baiting them as possibly my third pick, and I wasn't sure whether I would or not. I had it seven. Probably depends where you look. You're right. I think it's moved up to seven and a half. But you know what? I like being on the same team as you. Let's do it. If I'm putting a big question mark, and I'll get to the one I was considering later. If it was on the edge anyways as my third pick, I will also go Houston minus seven and a half on the road in Dallas. Look, it's all about the Cowboys offense for me. The reason why I'm a little anxious about it is just the Cowboys defense last week with Micah Parsons back. If you watch that game, it took the Eagles about seven drives to get to that second breakdown, and they got a lot of pressure. That's against a good Eagles of the line. I think about that matchup, and it's home, and they got to be embarrassed. I just think the Cowboys defense will be okay. Yes, the return of Nico Collins matters a lot, but this offensive line It's the third quarter, and so I was just worried, Man, is this going to be the third quarter?

It's 17 to 10, and I'm sweating this out. Yes, it's probably. But it's the other side. It doesn't matter. No, it's the other side of the ball. I don't want to sweat this out. The last couple of weeks, we've been hitting ones that are over mid-third quarter. It's the other side of the ball. Cooper Rush averaged less than 2 yards per pass last week. Every time he dropped back, he now has a neck injury.

His quarterback win stat is really good.

Right. He has won a lot of games.Not a stat. The Texas. That's not a thing. They did get Daneel Hunter back in practice on Thursday. We're not for sure whether Will Anderson is going to play in this game, so that's obviously a concern. But when they got Aziz Al-Shahir back last week, I think that really helped them against the Lions. They are one of the most consistent week to week defenses in the NFL. I think they're one of the few difference making defenses in the NFL. So if you're telling me one of the few difference making defenses in the NFL against this Cowboys team, the over-under I'm giving for Cowboys on points in this game is Like 10. Give me the seven and a half. We are both on the Texans again. We've been riding this fade train for the Cowboys. Let's keep it rolling. Keep my undefeated street going. If I get to nine and oh, if you think I'm insufferable, I don't think you're ever insufferable. If I go three straight weeks.

I don't really think you're insufferable. I'm actually rooting for it because I think it's funny. It doesn't mean that I am rooting against myself. No. We can both be.

We're competing, but we're both winning right now, and we're giving our audience Who would win if we both win all the way from here and out?

Everyone. The listeners. The listener. You would win.

That's absolutely right. All right, give me your second pick. We are both on the Cowboys losing by more than seven and a half points at home to the Texans. What is your second pick?

Indianapolis and the points. Okay. I have the Jets winning outright, but I have Indianapolis with the points, and it's very volatile on the Jets side, and I don't like that. So I'm punishing them because I have proven to my... I have stayed committed to taking the pics in my model. I don't go against my model, you know this, but I hate that pick. If I had to tell you what I believe, it's Colts. If I had to, Colts.

Wait, but you're taking the Jets.

Well, straight up.

Let's do that. Yeah. Okay. Sorry.

You can say whatever you want. I don't know.

I have a lot of being down fear. We do a show on NFL Network. I understand, but I don't want to get you in trouble. We don't mention a lot. The listeners for this show would be particularly interesting. Game Day View on NFL Network each and every week. The first airing is very early in the morning on the West Coast on Friday, but it has multiple airings throughout the weekend, including on Sunday morning before game day morning. You can set your DVR to our picks there. So your pick is Jets plus four or minus four?

No, my pick is Colts plus.

Plus four.

I'm saying I have the Jets. That's what I thought. But I have the Colts because I hate this.

All that matters is the Colts coverage. Right. That's all that matters.

That's right. I'm just telling you, But I'm just explaining that part of the reason why I, specifically or pacifically, how you speak English, wanted this one is because sometimes I get mad at my own model.

Right. You're not happy that your model has the Jets winning this game. I want the cult. Your model has been heavy on the Jets all season. My model, the Jets are screwing me over. Vegas has two. Frankly, when I looked at this one, and this was the fourth game I was debating. So this one's going to be in my little box. It's not going to be on my three official picks, but I'm with you. I agree with you. The fourth pick that I was debating was either Colts plus 4 or Texans minus seven and a half. I'm going to put it as my extra pick this week, but I'm prepared to agree with you because I am picking the Colts straight up in this game. The vibes could not be worse. I mean, it's not that the Jets are just losing these games. When they're losing these games, they are not competitive. I think it could actually be worse at home. I think their offense will be okay in this game against the Colts, but the Colts have been getting better pass-rush lately since they got the Forest Buckner back. I think Anthony Richardson is a plus.

I look at him as giving the Colts a better chance to win with a ground-based attack against this Jets run defense, which just had no fight last It's like, and some people, you just look up front and you think, Oh, they can't stop their run. That's part of it. You know what a big part of it is? Is Sauce Gardner and that defensive backfield. It's a bunch of skinny corners and safeties who can't tackle. In the NFL today, they will test your edges. I think they use Jonathan Taylor, Anthony Richardson on the edge, and Sauce Gardner and those guys are just missing tackle after tackle, week after week. I love your indie plus four. I think you're two and oh.

Can I tell you something? I spent far too much time looking at what happened with my model where Jonathan Taylor with Anthony Richardson starting, especially because Jeff Ulbrich sitting there on his podium being like, We couldn't make any tackles last week in Arizona, blah, blah, blah, blah, Why? Because Anthony Richardson can't be doing wild things. Right now, he has the highest area per attempt, average of any... It's like 13 yards per attempt. It's a wild number.

It's insane.

In order to keep him from turning the ball over, shorter passes, but also the threat of the run. Who are they going to defend? Are they going to defend Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor? The answer is both, but how? Jonathan Taylor, don't be afraid of his rushing yard total over. Gosh, I'm using all these G-words. I'm scaring I'm not doing myself here. You can absolutely-I know, but the fear of God has been beaten into me about this.

For years, we had to walk this tightrope.

For years, we had to say the worst... People would be like, Your grammar is terrible. I'm like, You try speaking in code.

Yeah, we had to speak in a weird code. It was essentially a pick show. It was essentially a gambling show, but you couldn't advertise it that way.

And we'd say more or less.

Yeah, not higher or lower. Here we go. I feel so good about packers minus five and a half. I can't believe this number has gone back to the packers During the week. It was actually higher when I looked. Initially, it was six earlier. Now it's five and a half. Sometimes it's just over in life. The numbers that your model spits out, and you're probably on the same side as me, are you? But even Vegas, they can't totally measure when it's just over. These are human beings, and you don't get the dead coach bounce with the offensive coordinator chain. There's two reasons I'm picking this one. Okay, you want to step in?

No, I'm doing... This is the reason one. Okay, thank you.

Reason number Everyone thinks that, okay, the bear's offense is a mess, but it's a good defense, right? It's a good bear's defense. It's like, okay, their defense is fine. A, they do not rush the passer very well. They're Getting Monte's sweat back, but they're not really a great pass-rush team. Very mediocre in terms of getting to the quarterback, in terms of a pass-rush win rate, all that stuff. Number two, they don't stop the run at all. They're actually quite poor stopping the run. You're going to tell me they're a difference-making defense when A, you don't really rush the passer at an exceptional rate, your average, and then B, you're legitimately bad stopping the run. They are 30th in DVOA, that's total efficiency, against the run. That measures their schedule. That's been a big part of the reason why their defense is overrated. They're 13th overall in defense by that metric because of the schedule. They haven't played anyone. Now, when they've started playing some teams like the Cardinals, for instance, they got run over. Then look, I got a third point. Andrew Billings was by far their best run stopper. They count on a nose tackle to take up two blockers on the interior.

He's a huge man. Very underrated player was playing at a high level for them. He just went out for the season two weeks ago, so I think they're significantly worse than they were then. The offense is obviously a mess, and we don't even need to talk about how bad the offense is, but I truly believe it's over, over. These last two games were two of the The worst games I've ever seen from an offensive staff and offensive team, and you're playing a good packer's team. I think they win by 25. I love it. Give me this packer's one.

I'm with you on that. I will say, here's my We're going down a nerd rabbit hole, but it's okay because I have my glasses on. So when I'm wearing my glasses, I can be nerdier. I did this thing where I tracked where the volume of money was going on bets and which fans are disproportionately irrational about their team. And Chicago fans are pretty irrational, meaning they get a little change and they're like, We're winning now. They swing all the way back to, they're very like, We hate you. We love you. We hate you. We love you. So I think part of that is to entice those bears fans. In Vegas, I also read all these 10Ks and these earnings report. I do nerdy stuff, and I have a lame free I read these earnings report. The casinos are beginning hammered a little bit. Look out for these lines to be a little wild because they need to entice some fans. Just saying little business 101 here with the last one.

They're enticing me right now to go packers minus five and a half. And it's funny you say that because every year on the over-under draft that we've been doing on the podcast, which I'm on a wild winning streak on the last couple of years. Man, I'm just patting myself on the back too. Why not? The bears over-under before the start of the season is always too high. I've gone under every year, and I did it again this year. It was nine and a half in some places, but I feel good that either whether you got an eight and a half or nine and a half, it's going to be under. All right, let's go to your final pick.

My final pick. Speaking of a team that hit their win totals or will be hitting their win totals, should they win this game? Denver. Five and a half wins was the win total ahead of the season. They're at five right now. I'm feeling good about that one. I hammered that one pretty hard, so I would have been really eating Crow or eating Bronco, I guess.I think you're getting it this week.If I had been wrong. Yeah, I think that this week, I think not only do they get the win at home against Atlanta, but I do have a win by more than two points. Two.

It's crazy. It's a wild one. See all these notes. It's a wild one.

Are we becoming Are you being the same person?

Denver is my second person. That would be great for me. No. I would get way more Instagram followers. It'd be very exciting.

Let's be fair. I'd rather have your wit and quick bit. No. Anthony Jez Jeselnick is my favorite. To be best friends with him would be great.

I'm actually scared of him.

But why do you brought that up.

The Jeselnick and Rosenthal Vanity Project is back this week. I know. I don't think I've mentioned that on NFL Daily.

I'm really excited about this. I'm really excited about this.

I appreciate. So I'm with you. Denver was my number two pick. It was locked and loaded minus two and a half, I saw. So whether it's two, two and a half, whatever. Either way, I'm going full believer.

I went believer.

Now, the Broncos has been Part of this show for my picks three straight weeks now. I went against them with Baltimore. We got it. We both were with them last week. Mine was in the extra picks, the box, but you nailed it with the plus eight. I agreed with you on that. There's a couple of reasons. I just like the physical matchup up front. The Falcons with the worst pressure rate, the worst sack rate in the entire NFL against a Bronco's offensive line that's really underrated. Number one in pass block win rate right now. Pff has them as the number two pass protection team in the league. That's a huge mismatch. And Bo Nicks' numbers when he's protected, they're fantastic. So that's the numbers reason. The more reason why I do it Sometimes is I just look at the records, and Patrick brought this up on the previous show. The Falcons, to me, they're not a seven and four team. They need to come back to their water. Their water is six and five. I look at the Falcons, they don't deserve to be seven and four. Whether the The Broncos deserve to be six and 5.

Yeah, that sounds about right. A little above average. They've lost two straight, the Broncos, on the road to really good teams, Ravens and chiefs. They're coming back home. They need it more. I like them in this spot to win the game, and I just don't believe in the Falcons defense at all, and I think they get cooked in this game. Sean Payton has really been doing a good job building up this offense bit by bit.

I've been trying to figure it out right now, but Mike Mclinchee, if he's able to go, that's very helpful, too. Even better. But I think they win the battle in the trenches on both sides, either way.

I agree with you. And yeah, Kirk Cousins is always a little dangerous because I think he's been playing at a pretty high level despite not being able to move around. And yet I think his offensive line, they're a very It's a average pass rush. I mean, pass protecting group. You would think they had this reputation at the Falcons as a good pass protecting group. Well, it's just that they're all drafted so high.

Right. They're all like first rounders.

They're okay. They're not bad. They're not good. But this is against a very good pass rush. This is the first week of the season that we've agreed on two games, and we really agreed on three because you picked off what would have been my fourth pick. We are both on the Texans covering seven and a half. We are both on the Broncos covering two and a half. You have the Colts plus Plus 4, which I wholeheartedly agree with. That is my extra pick in the box. I have the packers covering five and a half. That is my very favorite pick of the week. Then you took really the only extra pick I felt really strong about, but I'll throw one just little one out there. I like the Raiders actually getting seven in Miami. I just don't.

You like the North, Scott, Turner, the Turner family bump?

I just feel like the Dolphins aren't a good enough team to be favored by seven against basically anyone. Maybe if it was the bears, I would be okay with it because I'm so down on the bears or the cowboys. But I think the Raiders coming off a buy, pretty good pass rush. I think the Dolphins defense, it'll just be low and ugly. So you're giving me three-seventh point. That's why it's an extra pick.

Their right tackle is also missing, too. And you're where Max Crosby lines up? Yes. There you go. Good job. A guy with the last name of Lamb going against Max Crosby just doesn't work.

But that's just a little extra pick. And to be honest, my extra picks have been just like 500 lately. We're riding high on the top three. Sure.

Wait, I want to give an extra pick, too, though, because I have another one here. Please do. What is the number you see for Cleveland? Because I've seen it bouncing around, but I have Cleveland winning.

Okay. Yeah. Now they're favored by one, but before they were an underdog by one.

Right. But I have Cleveland winning this game, and I love nick Chubb. I'm a huge nick Chubb stand, and he's going to get his over 50 rushing TD, which puts him in a club with some Hall of Famers, like Jim Brown, really good players. Hey, you know?

Less talked about than the fired coach principle. It fades after that first week. I think long term, they'll be better with Darren Rizzie than they were with Dennis Allen. But this is a toss-up to me. But I also picked the Browns, and so I agree with you on that.

Look, I think that it's much harder to defend erratic. James Winston can be erratic. We know that. He's going to throw it deep, but he could throw a pick, he could throw a deep… Explosive plays makes things harder, and their defense still has been missing tackles. Their defense still has not been really stout at limiting Yack, eliminating Yako, Yaka, either one. That's going to be hard because I just think as good as the Browns defense…

I'm with you. I think the Browns defense is the most trustworthy group in this game, but it did not make it onto my card just because nothing about these two teams is too trustworthy. No, but that's my extra. Yeah, that's your little extra pick. Thank you, Cynthia. Once again, check out her YouTube channel, Numbers Game. That's where it is all happening. Check out NFL Game Day view. Subscribe to NFL Daily on YouTube. We really want to get the subscriber numbers up. And Blue Sky. Is that what you're talking about? We both signed up for Blue Sky. Why not?

We both signed up for Blue Sky. I'm still not really... Is it just the same thing as Twitter? I don't really know.

I don't know, but it seems nice.We'll figure it out at some point.

But also your pod with...

With Anthony, the Justin Lincoln Rosenthal Vanity Project.J.R.J.B.Yes.It's really good. We are back, and we're back in the mix. That is it for this week's show. We will be back on Sunday night, of course, with nick Shook and Patrick Claibon. Looking forward to that. And yes, when we're hit the middle of November, and we believe you know football is back. Boli. Back. Boleys.