Transcript of Trump's Iran Progress Claims, Oil Industry Profit From Iran War, Rubio Meets Pope Leo New

President Trump keeps saying that a deal with Iran is close.

"We're doing very well in Iran.

It's going very smoothly, and we'll see what happens." But Iran has shown little sign it's ready to agree to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

I'm Leila Fawden. That's Michele Martin, and this is Up First from NPR News. Big oil companies are benefiting from the higher prices because of the war with Iran. Chevron's CEO says it could produce more oil, but the future is too risky to make that bet. How long could oil prices stay elevated?

And Secretary of State Marco Rubio has the difficult task of smoothing relations with the Vatican as he's set to meet with Pope Leo today. Trump has been attacking the first American pope. Trump accused him of endangering Catholics by opposing the war with Iran. How will that affect the meeting with Rubio? Stay with us. We've got news you need to start your day. Rare earths have become a powerful political tool for China. But before that, one U.S. company monopolized the industry. We have the dramatic story of how America dominated the market for rare earths and then lost it all.

I think about that almost every day of my life, Kenny. What could I have done differently?

Listen to Planet Money on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Once again, President Trump claims the U.S. is on the cusp of a deal with Iran, assuring the public the Iranians are desperate for a deal.

We're doing very well in Iran. It's going very smoothly, and we'll see what happens. They want to make a deal. They want to negotiate.

But once again, Iran has yet to sign on to what Trump is selling. There have been days of public declarations about who controls the Strait of Hormuz and who can sail through and what the U.S. is and isn't doing about it. All the while, gas prices in the U.S. remain high at a national average of more than $4.50 a gallon for regular gas, according to AAA. A year ago, It was 3:15.

Here to walk us through this is NPR's national political correspondent Mara Liasson. Mara, good morning.

Good morning.

You know, I feel like we've been stuck in this moment for quite some time. Like, what's the latest?

You're right. It's like Groundhog Day. Trump keeps on saying we've won the war, but the war never seems to end. He's been consistent. He says over and over again that Iran wants to make a deal and that the operation has been a big success. Here's what he said yesterday.

Now we're doing well. Now we have to get what we have to get. If we don't do that, we'll have to go a big step further. But with that being said, they want to make a deal. We've had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it's very possible that we'll make a deal. Yeah, please.

He doesn't sound completely convinced. He also said, quote, "We'll see whether or not they can make a deal that's satisfactory to us." So that's where things stand. That's where they've stood for quite a while.

But have we seen anything from the other side, from the Iranians, that backs up what President Trump is saying?

Not yet. We haven't seen the details of an Iranian proposal. Iran did issue a statement yesterday saying they were reviewing the latest proposal from the United States. And yesterday, when asked by a reporter about why Iran has refused to submit, even though the U.S. has done so much damage to its military, Trump got angry, and here's what he said.

You don't know that. You don't know what's going on behind the scenes. Yeah, I know, a few days ago is a long time ago. You know, in the world of war, a few days ago— no, they want to make a deal badly, and we'll see if we get there. If we get there, they can't have nuclear weapons.

He also said, quote, it would take them 20 years to rebuild if the U.S. left now.

Okay, so why not leave now?

One reason could be that not all of the U.S. objectives have been met. Iran has not agreed yet to open the Strait of Hormuz. They have not agreed to stop enriching uranium or give up their stockpile of enriched uranium. And they haven't agreed with Trump's demand to never have a nuclear weapon.

So given what we've heard, these threats, these declarations that seem to come and go, that don't seem to come to fruition, is the president in danger of getting tuned out?

Well, that's another good question, and that could be the conclusion that many of our allies and enemies may be drawing, that Trump is making it up as he goes along. We've heard public comments to that effect from leaders in Europe. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz infuriated Trump when he said last week that the U.S. has no strategy in Iran. And of course, at home, the Iran war is a big political problem for the president and his party. Gas prices, as you said, are still over $4 a gallon. The latest NPR/PBS NewsMarist poll found that President Trump is less popular than he's ever been. He's at 37% approval. But Trump said yesterday that paying more for gas at the pump was worth it to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. But of course, Trump himself is not up for election in November. Remember, Republicans are, and many of them would like this war to end quickly.

That is NPR national political correspondent Mara Liasson. Mara, thank you.

You're welcome.

Big oil companies are starting to report earnings, which have been heavily affected by the war in Iran and its effect on oil prices.

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela has had a major impact, too. So far, we've heard from ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, and Chevron, with more to come.

NPR's Kamila Dominoski has been listening to what executives are saying to investors, and she's here to tell us about that. Good morning.

Good morning.

So what do these high prices mean for oil producers?

Well, it's a boost to the bottom line, right? This quarter did actually— because of a sort of accounting quirk, Exxon and Chevron looked like they made less money this quarter. But that's because a lot of the profits that they're going to make from selling oil at the higher prices that we've seen, they just haven't been able to put on their books yet until they physically deliver those shipments. Exxon said if you factor that in, their profits were actually twice what they appeared to be in paper. And executives do expect oil prices to remain high. Here's Darren Woods, the CEO of Exxon.

I think it's obvious to most that if you look at the unprecedented disruption in the world supply of oil and natural gas, the market hasn't seen the full impact of that yet.

He's basically saying that prices could still get higher. And, you know, even if the strait does reopen soon, it's going to take time to bring production back online, put oil on ships. The world is going to want to buy a lot of oil to rebuild the stockpiles that it's been burning through. So oil will stay high for a while.

Okay, so let's just say higher oil prices are good news for oil companies and their investors, but for you and me, not so much.

Yeah, it increases prices at the pump like we just heard from Mara, and that pushes up inflation across the entire economy. I will add as a caveat, there's a risk for oil companies themselves too, because If prices are high enough for long enough that they cut into demand or even cause a global recession, that's bad for everyone, including the Exxons of the world.

Could US companies bring prices down by increasing supply, by producing more oil?

Yeah, they could. That doesn't mean that they will, especially the big companies. Here is the CEO of Chevron, Mike Wirth.

We could hit the gas and begin to grow it again, But I don't know what the future looks like. For right now, I think it's really steady as she goes.

All of the cash that's coming in at higher oil prices, companies could invest that in new drilling projects, which is then a risk if the price of oil crashes at some point in the future. They would lose out that investment, or they could spit that money out as cash to investors. And Wall Street has a strong preference for option B, the cash. Uh, we could see some different calculations from smaller companies. We got a survey from the Dallas Fed a few weeks ago asking a bunch of oil executives what they expect for U.S. production, most did anticipate some increase in U.S. output, but honestly, not a huge sort of world market shaping amount.

And what about a boost in crude oil from Venezuela? Could that help to make up what— let's just call it the world's missing oil?

Yeah, partly. We've seen production go up about 14% from Venezuela. That is significant, but it's not the huge multiple times larger increase that President Trump has pushed for. We saw companies really walk when he pushed for this early in the year with questions about the political stability of the country, what contracts would actually look like. The oil that Venezuela has is especially tricky to extract and process. The higher-priced environment we're in now does create more of an incentive to put money into those projects, but it would take a lot of time. We are not talking about a quick solution to the oil crisis here.

That is NPR's Camila Domonoske. Camila, thank you.

Thanks.

U.S.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting Pope Leo at the Vatican today after weeks of attacks by President Trump on the first American pope.

Among other complaints, Trump accused Leo of endangering Catholics and repeated his false claim that the pope supports Iran having nuclear weapons. The pope, of course, rejected that and said the church opposes all nuclear arms.

Reporter Megan Williams is with us now from Rome. Megan, good morning.

Good morning.

So how did relations between the White House and Pope Leo get to this point?

Yeah, it's been an unusually public rupture. Pope Leo has been a firm critic of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. He's called for diplomacy and warned against the use of force. Really nothing out of the ordinary for a Catholic leader. But Trump hasn't liked it. And in April, he called the pope weak and terrible on foreign policy. Then on Monday, Sunday, Trump went further. He said the pope was endangering a lot of Catholics by opposing the war. Now Leo pushed back when speaking to reporters near Rome on Tuesday. He said the mission of the church is to preach peace and that the Catholic Church has spoken out for years against nuclear arms.

And I always believe that it's much better to enter into dialog than to look for arms and to support the arms industry which gains billions and billions of dollars each year, instead of sitting down at the table solving our problems.

So with this back and forth, Rubio's meeting with the pope is really not a routine diplomatic visit. He has the awkward assignment of trying to smooth relations with the Vatican as Trump keeps picking fights with the pope.

What are Leo and Rubio each trying to accomplish with this visit?

The Pope is worried about Iran, but also about other issues in the Middle East. Here's Vatican expert Massimo Fagioli.

We are very concerned about what's happening, not just in Iran, but also in Israel, in Lebanon.

So the Pope is worried about the Middle East, Israel and Lebanon, especially, says Fagioli, about the risks to the shrinking Christian communities in those countries. Now, Rubio has said he will discuss Cuba and religious freedom around the world, the issues where the Vatican has really long played a key diplomatic role. But Rubio has a hard job. He has to show respect for the pope while representing an administration whose leader has repeatedly attacked the pope. And he has to avoid irritating the Vatican in ways Vice President J.D. Vance has by claiming Catholic teachings support the harsh crackdown on immigration and other things. Fagioli says the decision to send Rubio to Rome was telling.

Gentiloni's standing in the eyes of the Vatican has not improved, and certainly it didn't help in April when he said the Pope should be careful when he talks about theology.

Now there's another political dimension to this visit. With midterm elections about 6 months away, the White House does not want conservative Catholic voters thinking Trump is anti-Pope.

Rubio is also meeting with the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, and apparently she also got pulled into this.

Yes, she did. Meloni was until recently one of Trump's closest allies in Europe, Europe, but attacking the Pope does not play well in Italy. And she called his comments unacceptable. After she defended the Pope, Trump turned on her too. So when Rubio meets Meloni, they'll likely talk about Iran, but there's also this awkward subtext. Trump's attacks on the Pope have now really also become a problem for one of his staunchest European allies.

That's reporter Megan Williams in Rome. Megan, thank you.

Thank you.

And that's Up First for Thursday, May 7th. I'm Michelle Martin.

And I'm Leila Fadel. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Rebecca Metzler, Tina Krya, Cara Platoni, Mohammad Zabardisi, and Adriana Gallardo. It was produced by Ziad Butch and Nia Dumas. Our director is Katie Klein. We get engineering support from Misha Haines, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Our deputy executive producer is Kelly Dickens. Join us again tomorrow.