Transcript of Project Freedom Paused, Ohio & Indiana Primary Results, Poll Shows Dems Advantage New

President Trump paused the U.S. operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz just 2 days after it started.

He cited, quote, "great progress" towards a deal with Iran, and his secretary of state says combat operations are over. Are they?

I'm Emilio Martinez. That's Leila Fadel, and this is Up First from NPR News. In Indiana, several Republican state senators who defied President Trump on redistricting lost their primary. So what do the results say about Trump's hold on the Republican Party?

And a new poll shows Democrats Democrats with a significant edge to gain control of Congress 6 months ahead of the midterm elections. The economy has been the key issue, and with gas prices up, how much trouble are Republicans in? Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day. On NPR's Wildcard podcast, Julio Torres says he doesn't need to prove himself to anyone.

When someone makes me feel like I have to prove something to them, I just walk away.

Really?

I'm like, seek help.

Watch or listen to that Wildcard conversation on the NPR app or on YouTube at NPR Wildcard. Two days after the Trump administration touted a new plan to get ships out of the Strait of Hormuz and protect them from Iranian attacks, that effort is over for now.

President Trump posted Tuesday night that the operation was paused because of, quote, great progress toward a final agreement with Iran. The reversal came the same day that Secretary of State Marco Rubio said combat operations in Iran were over.

NPR's White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez joins us now to talk about this. Good morning.

Good morning, Leila.

You know, Franco, we've heard the president say the war is over, nearly over, will be over in 2 weeks several times now. Is it actually over this time?

Yeah, I mean, we really don't know. I mean, Rubio says the focus now is on negotiations and that the U.S. is only going to be involved in defensive operations.

And what that means is very simple. There's no shooting unless we're shot at first. Okay, we're not attacking them, we're not. But if they're attacking us or they're attacking a ship, you need to respond to that.

But to your point, I mean, we also heard earlier in the day Trump expressing frustration that Iran's leaders had yet to capitulate after 2 months of US military and economic pressure.

They should wave the white flag, the white flag of surrender. In hockey they say Uncle, right?

You know, it just shows how things just are changing all the time.

Yeah. Last night, Trump also touted what he called progress towards an agreement with Iran. Has there actually been progress?

Yeah, it's interesting because Trump's words were very different than some of the messaging being delivered by Rubio, who told us yesterday that the two sides were still trying to figure out what the specific issues each side were willing to negotiate about.

That's the object of this diplomacy, is to come up with some level of understanding about what are the topics that they've agreed to negotiate on. We don't have to have the actual agreement written out in one day. This is highly complex and highly technical, but we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear about the topics that they are willing to negotiate on and the extent and the concessions they're willing to make at the front end in order to make those talks worthwhile.

I mean, Laila, that makes it sound like they're very early in the process, which again is very different than the, you know, great progress that Trump is portraying.

Yeah, I mean, and the big issue, right, is still the Strait of Hormuz. More than 100 ships a day used to travel through that waterway before the war. And it's only since the US and Israel started this war that Iran took control of the strait. So if combat operations are over, as we heard from Rubio, what happens with the strait?

Yeah, I mean, that was Rubio's big push. And he said under no circumstances can the US allow Iran to normalize the idea that they can control the waterway. But he also stopped short of saying what action would take place.

Now, the Secretary of State, brief the press on this latest development. Is that unusual?

Well, I mean, the administration really came across the board yesterday with a stepped-up message about the war. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine briefed reporters. Trump also took questions. And it just comes at such a big moment in the conflict as Americans continue to feel kind of the economic pinch of all this. And Rubio said that Iran needed to make a sensible choice that leads them to reconstruction and prosperity.

The alternative is growing isolation, economic collapse, and ultimately total defeat. I know what the right choice is for Iran. I hope that the people over there making decisions will make the right one.

Yeah, I mean, the message boils down to a mix of de-escalation combined with this kind of tough talk, and it can be confusing at times.

That's White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez. Thank you, Franco.

Thank you, Leila.

President Trump largely succeeded in his effort to punish Indiana lawmakers who did not go along with a redistricting plan last year.

Trump targeted 7 incumbent state senators, backing challengers against them. Most of the incumbents lost.

NPR's Stephen Fowler is here to share what these results can tell us about the upcoming midterms. So, Stephen, let's start off with Indiana.

Well, 5 of these challengers decisively won. There was 1 incumbent who prevailed, and another race is still too close to call, currently separated by 3 votes. More than $7 million were spent on just TV ads to convince a few thousand people to pick a handful of different lawmakers who basically have the same views as the existing officeholders, except the one time they differed from Trump. It's just another example of how for Trump's base, he's the alpha and omega, and nothing changes their view of him. However, at a time where polling shows the base is shrinking and there's little support for Trump and his policies outside of that group, and when other Republicans on the ballot could use his help, it is notable, eh, that this is how Trump is spending his time and energy and resources in an otherwise unfavorable midterm environment.

All right. Ohio also held primaries Tuesday. You've been reporting for a year and a half on Democrats doing better than expected. Did that happen? In Ohio.

Absolutely. Even though there wasn't really a competitive primary for either party for the statewide governor and Senate races, according to election data, there were more Democrats than Republicans that voted early. And in a number of key House districts, you had more Democrats show up too. And primary elections can act as a sort of temperature check for how voters are feeling. Mike McCarty of Maumee, Ohio, told NPR he was looking for change.

I would like to see a Democratic majority in Congress, especially because I think what Trump is doing and what his administration is doing is not good for America.

Democrats feel like they have a good shot at flipping the Ohio governor's race and the Senate race in what will be some of the most competitive and expensive races in the country in November. And as they try to hold on to two House seats that were redrawn to be more conservative leaning.

I mean, Stephen, you know this, we're 6 months out from the general election. I mean, what else should we take away as we look to the primaries in the weeks and months ahead?

Well, the Indiana State Senate aside, it is very hard to unseat an incumbent. And for US House members on the ballot, that remained true. However, in Indiana, you saw nearly every incumbent who did have primary challengers get under 70% of the vote. There was one incumbent who raised 100 times more than his opponent and narrowly survived. There was another who had a close race against someone who never filed any campaign fundraising reports. So you could say that voters are signaling a desire for something and someone else. I also want to reiterate that in pretty much every state that's had a primary so far, you know, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Illinois, you've seen a surge of Democratic turnout and Republicans have been more, eh, which if those feelings continue through November, it's going to make the country's politics look very, very very different next year and for the final 2 years of Trump's term.

That's NPR political reporter Stephen Fowler. Stephen, thanks.

Thank you.

The latest NPR/PBS News Marist poll helps us understand why we've seen consistent overperformance for Democrats this primary season, even in red states. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro has been sifting through the results and joins me now. Hi, Domenico.

Hey, Leila.

So what are we learning about the midterms specifically?

Well, right now, 6 months from Election Day, Democrats do have a pretty significant advantage according to the poll. When people were asked if congressional elections were held today, who would they vote for? They chose Democrats by 10 points. That's a pretty big edge if you look at past election performances. And Democrats also have the edge on a really key factor here: enthusiasm. They're 8 points more likely than Republicans to say they're, quote, very enthusiastic to vote this November. And when it comes to how people voted in 2024, 61% of people who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris say that they're, quote, very enthusiastic, but just 47% of those who voted for Trump say they are.

OK, so it sounds like Democrats have a pretty sizable advantage here. Could that mean a wave election?

In previous years, the party with these kinds of numbers would have been thinking about a pretty big wave, you know, but waves nowadays are a lot lower than in the past because there are just way fewer competitive districts. And while Democrats do have the advantage and some key groups who vote with them are fired up, especially white voters with college degrees. Other Democratic pillar groups, though, are not as much. Young voters, Black voters, Latinos, for example, they're all among the lowest groups in saying that they are very enthusiastic to vote. And we know midterms are much lower turnout affairs than presidential elections. On average, we see about a 30% drop-off. So right now, Democrats certainly the favorites to take back the House, but they have a lot of work to do to shore all that up.

Now, we often talk about the fact that Trump's base is particularly loyal through many ups ups and downs. Do we expect that to hold once again?

We saw an example of Trump's control over the MAGA base last night in his targeting of Republican state senators in Indiana who defied him on redistricting. Most of them lost. It's one reason why so many Republican elected officials don't cross him. But general elections aren't primaries, and Trump has been really toxic with swing voters. His overall approval rating is the worst it's ever been in our poll, just 37% approve while 59% disapprove. That can be a real albatross for Republican candidates across the especially when key groups appear to be softening or turning away from Trump. Take, for example, people who make less than $50,000 a year, white men and women without college degrees, rural voters. Shortly after Trump was sworn into office, they all had a positive job approval rating of him. Now that's flipped, and more in each group disapproves of the job that he's doing. Key crossover groups like Latinos and young voters have all moved heavily away from him, and Republicans have the added problem of struggling to turn out Trump's base when he's not on the ballot.

Now, that sounds like a lot stacking up against Republicans right now. The economy has been the key issue for many Americans. Gas prices are up because of the war in Iran. Is that what's prompting this low point for the president?

Well, the thing about it, gas prices seem to be the catalyst for Trump's economic numbers nosediving even farther than where they've been. 8 in 10 say gas prices are straining their household budgets. 63% blame Trump for that increase. 63% also say the economy is not working well for them. Trump's approval on the economy as a result is just 35%. You know, it's really remarkable. He's been lower on the economy in this term than he ever was the first time around, even at his most unpopular.

That's NPR's senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, thank you.

You got it.

And that's Up First for Wednesday, May 6th. I'm Leila Faldin.

Ana May Martinez. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Rebecca Metzler, Megan Pratz, Dana Farrington, Mohamed El Bardisi, and Arzu Razvani. It was produced by Ziad Butch and Nia Dumas. Our director is Katie Klein. We get engineering support from Nisha Hynes. Our technical director is Carly Strange, and our supervising producer is Michael Lipkin. Join us again tomorrow.