Transcript of Super El Niño, Measles, Iran War Stalemate

An unusually powerful El Niño this year has shattered records for air and sea surface temperatures.

The climate phenomenon has already caused crop failures and droughts. It hasn't peaked yet.

I'm Ayesha Rascoe.

And I'm Scott Simon, and this is Up First from NPR News. El Niño has long been a cause of climate chaos, forming in warm waters over the Pacific Ocean. So far this year, It's changed the weather from Germany to India.

And 2 deaths associated with the measles outbreak in Pennsylvania have called into question the anti-vaccination crusade of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Finally, it's been 6 months since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran with very little to show for it. What could eventually end the war?

Stay with us. We have the news you need to start your weekend.

It's hot, it's dry, and normal weather patterns are haywire. El Niño is back in all its disruptive power.

This year, it's being called a Super El Niño. NPR's Lauren Sommer covers climate and joins us now. Hi, Lauren.

Hey, Ayesha.

So how exactly does an El Niño work and how does it affect the planet?

So it's actually a natural cycle that the Earth goes through, and it happens when there's just this huge amount of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator. That releases a lot of heat to the atmosphere, and it has these really far-reaching ripple effects. It can change weather patterns dramatically, and that could mean, you know, lack of rain and drought in some places, and then extreme rain and flooding in other places.

And what makes this particular El Niño a super El Niño?

Yeah, it's like super, super duper El Niño. Some people are calling it like a Godzilla El Niño. But really officially, federal forecasters say It's a very strong El Niño. And I talked to Julia Cole about why that is. She's a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.

Right now, we're looking at an El Niño developing across the tropical Pacific that is stronger than any other El Niño has been at this time of year. These temperatures are still rising. And so we expect that this El Niño that's developing now is going to be a historic, probably a record-breaking El Niño.

And El Niños tend to peak at the end of the year, so this one is still strengthening, and the impacts could last for months after that.

What could those impacts look like here in the US?

First thing is heat. It'll raise temperatures globally. I mean, the hottest years on record are usually El Niño years. And remember, this El Niño is on top of climate change. The planet is already about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit hotter from burning fossil fuels. So this year or next year, most likely, could become the hottest year on record. And then the other major risk is related to rainfall. In the US, El Niño years usually bring more intense rain to the southern half of the US, and that could mean destructive flooding. The northern half of the US gets drier too. So that's a big deal in the Intermountain West, which had low snowfall last year and is in a drought right now.

We know that climate change is already raising the risk of natural disasters generally. Is climate change also increasing the chances of, of creating super El Niños?

Yeah, that's actually been a tough question to figure out scientifically because this is a very complex climate pattern. But a new study just came out about that. Cole and her colleagues put together a record of past El Niños by looking at coral skeletons in the Galápagos. You know, corals, they grow a tiny bit each year, and their skeletons kind of tell this story about what conditions were like when they were growing. Cole looked at those records of El Niños from the past 1,000 years and compared them to today.

What we found is that the Modern El Niños are significantly stronger than the ones that we saw in the pre-industrial era. So that leads us to believe that strong El Niño events that we're seeing now are a consequence of, of being in a warmer world.

She says today's El Niños are about 36% stronger, and that can lead to some much higher risks.

We obviously saw that horrible, deadly flooding in the Himalayas this past week. Is that related to El Niño?

That flood was likely caused by a glacier collapsing, and, you know, warming temperatures from climate change could have influenced that. But this El Niño is still developing, so we haven't really seen the major effects of it yet.

Knowing the risks that the US will face this winter, is there anything that communities should be doing to prepare?

Yeah, there are already communities that are starting to think about this— emergency planning, evacuations— that'll be important. And emergency managers say this developing El Niño should be a huge warning sign to get ready before this winter hits.

That's NPR's Lauren Sommer. Thank you so much.

Thank you.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. traveled to Florida this week to talk about farming, childhood fitness, and school nutrition. But measles kept coming up instead.

This week, the governor of Pennsylvania announced 2 deaths have been linked to measles. Speaking with reporters in Tampa, Secretary Kennedy questioned whether those deaths were real. We're trying to figure out whether, you know, who those deaths were and whether they actually happened, and we can't figure that out yet.

Kennedy went on to say that vaccination should be a personal choice for parents and that vaccine requirements are motivated by profits for Big Pharma.

We're doing a better job than any country in the world at controlling the measles outbreak. This is a worldwide epidemic. NPR's Selena Simmons-Duffin joins us now. Thanks for being with us.

Hi, Scott.

Please tell us more about what we know about these 2 deaths in Pennsylvania.

Yeah, the deaths were announced by Governor Josh Shapiro, and they were billed as the first measles deaths in 2026 and the first in Pennsylvania in 35 years. And that announcement turned into a very public conflict. Secretary Kennedy used his personal X account to accused the governor of gaslighting. He also suggested the measles vaccine has fetal tissue in it. It does not. He did not offer condolences to the families for the lives lost that I've seen. And he did not urge people who are not vaccinated for measles and live in an area with an outbreak to get the vaccine. I called up Kathleen Sebelius to talk about this. She had the same job as Kennedy, health secretary during the Obama administration. And she said the fact that Kennedy is even going to these events about school lunches as measles cases are rising nationwide is a choice.

Talking about anything else, doing anything else, seems to me a very intentional refusal to confront both the spread of measles throughout the country, but also the effectiveness of vaccines and a call to action for parents to get their kids vaccinated.

I reached out to HHS to ask whether Kennedy recommends that people who are unvaccinated get the MMR vaccine, which protects against measles, and I did not receive a response by my deadline.

Did Kathleen Sebelius say what she thought Secretary Kennedy could or should be doing?

Yeah, she said he could be highlighting the case numbers, engaging with community groups to talk about the outbreaks and encourage more people to get vaccinated. She says Kennedy's response to the current situation is baffling to her.

We have an emergency in measles outbreaks all over this country, and we have a vaccination rate that is diminishing. among children going to kindergarten.

She says that promoting the MMR vaccine would protect vulnerable people from potentially serious complications like blindness or death, especially since measles is extremely contagious. Sebelius told me she's especially distressed that Kennedy is pointedly not sharing that message because it's back-to-school time and there's a real danger that these outbreaks will get worse as kids are back in the classroom.

Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, has also faced criticism this week for how he handled the 2 deaths, hasn't he?

Yeah, he held a press conference in Lancaster County to announce the deaths, but then released extremely limited information about the people who died, citing privacy concerns. And that has fueled theories online that they never happened or weren't caused by the measles after all. Some public health experts said this week that state officials should have had more information at the ready to tamp down those kinds of theories. Cynthia Bauer is an expert of health literacy and communication at the University of Maryland, and she told me this is kind of the new normal since the COVID pandemic, and it's not good.

For public servants, for people who are supposed to be serving the public interest, it does not help anybody to have those kinds of disagreements over basic facts in the public space.

She said Pennsylvania officials should be rock solid in what they're saying, and HHS should be backing them up. Otherwise, the public doesn't know who to believe, and that breeds distrust and cynicism.

Secretary Kennedy also made other news this week related to measles. It goes back to his work with an anti-vaccine group before he was health secretary.

Yeah, that's right. Some Democratic members of Congress have called on Kennedy to resign or be fired, charging that he lied to Congress during his confirmation hearing. And that's related to a report the AP and The Guardian published this week about a trip Kennedy took to Samoa in 2019 when it had a deadly measles outbreak. During his confirmation hearing, he said that trip had nothing to do with vaccines, but new documents published this week suggest that it very much did. I should say there are no signs at this point that Kennedy is going to resign or be fired by President Trump.

NPR's Selena Simmons-Duffin, thanks so much.

You're welcome. President Trump launched what he called major combat operations in Iran 6 months ago. He said the goal was to eliminate immediate threats posed by the regime and to support the Iranian people.

To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand.

Later, pressed for a timeline, he said the operation would take 4 or 5 weeks.

Reza Sayah is a freelance journalist and a special correspondent for PBS News who joins us from Tehran. Mr. Sayah, thanks so much for being with us.

Thank you for having me.

6 months of war. More than 4 months of a naval blockade that was aimed to choke off the Iranian economy. What is life like there now?

Life is difficult. It's challenging. Certainly it's challenging for the people. It's challenging for the governments. They see themselves in a war, whether the missiles are being launched or not. They view this as a hybrid war where you have an economic pressure on one hand from Washington, and then you have the military strikes that have been off and on. But, you know, What I've seen here for months is a leadership that's on a war footing, a leadership that believes they are facing a critical moment in history where their survival is at stake. The security and geopolitical makeup of the region, in their view, is at stake. And obviously the Trump administration sold this as a war that was going to end quickly, within days, weeks. It offered numerous objectives, and 6 months later, it's clear to many observers that none of those objectives have been met and that Iran survived an unprecedented attack. But it has come at a cost. Life has been very difficult on many fronts here for the people.

Tell us a bit about that. I gather inflation is projected to be almost 70%. How do people get by every day?

The economic situation is bad here. The pain comes in waves. Sometimes all you need is a headline to cause another wave of pain. This week, the headline came when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans for an economic doomsday for Iran, the toughest economic measures in history, as he put it. And even announcements like that impact people. There were long lines at the gas station. The prices of basic goods went up. The price of basic food items went up. This week, the value of the Iranian currency dropped to its lowest level, trading at more than 2 million rials to the dollar. And there's little evidence that the economic pressure has been effective in changing Iranian policy or to get the leadership to surrender.

What's public opinion like? I know that's difficult to estimate, but early on we did hear some Iranian voices in support of the US and Israeli attacks, hoping they might bring about regime change.

Those voices have been muted in the past few months, and it's Tehran's view and the view of many here that those voices were amplified by anti-Iran news media that exists outside of Iran. But, you know, I remind everyone that Iran has 90 million people living here. They have 90 million views and opinions. It's hard to get inside the heads of every individual. There is no question that many people here are having a hard time economically and they want this pressure to ease. They want reform. There's a sector of the population who's called for regime change. But what we've seen publicly over the past several months is almost a daily presence of many people who see this as a war for survival that they're supporting. the government. They don't buy the narrative from Washington.

Without putting you on the spot, can you report freely from Iran? Reporters Without Borders obviously says it's one of the most repressive countries in the world when it comes to press freedom.

I have reported here with press credentials from the Ministry of Culture for close to 20 years, and nowhere are you completely And I'm pleased and sometimes surprised with the freedom that I have. And I think as long as they view your reports, even if they're critical, as fair, they're going to allow you to work here. And I think, you know, that's been the case with me.

Reza Sayah in Tehran, thanks so much for being with us.

You're welcome.

That's Up First for Saturday, August 29th, 2026. I'm Ayesha Rascoe.

And I'm Scott Simon. Michael Radcliffe produced this podcast along with Danny Hensel and Dave Mistich.

Our editor is Diana Douglas. She had help from Rachel Waldholz, Diane Weber, Dee Parvaz, and Jacob Finston.

In the control room today, our director Andy Craig, joined by our technical director David Greenberg.

Our engineering team also includes Zoe Vangenhoven, J-Siz, and Simon Laszlo Janssen.

Our senior supervising editor is Shannon Rhodes. Our executive producer is Evie Stone, and our deputy managing editor is Katherine Laidlaw. 3 Ps in a podcast.

Tomorrow on The Sunday Story, the country music sensation Shaboozy shares a little about the inspiration for his new album, The Outlaw Sherry Lee and Other Western Tales.

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