Transcript of Iran War Expanding, Khamenei Successor, China Mediates Middle East War

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Some Iranians are fleeing the war on their country. Our correspondent is meeting them as they reach Turkey.

We'll hear what people are seeing and where they're going to escape the war that's spreading across the region.

I'm Steve Inskeep with Michelle Martin, and this is Up First from NPR News. Iran postponed the morning ceremony for its Supreme Leader as attacks continue on the capital, Tehran. Clerics are choosing who will lead Iran in the middle of a war, and many eyes are on the former leader's son.

China says it's sending a special envoy to the Middle East as Beijing opens its two sessions meeting where leaders set priorities for the year. Is China trying to position itself as a mediator or protecting its oil interests? Stay with us. We'll give you news you need to start your day. Israel and the US are continuing to hit Iran on the sixth day of the war. Iran says the United United States will, bitterly regret torpedoing one of its warships yesterday in the Indian Ocean in an attack that killed at least 87 people.

Here's a few updates overnight. Israel has tracked multiple incoming missile attacks. Air sirens blared overnight, and into this morning in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. All this as the war continues to spread across the region. Israeli attacks continue in Lebanon, and Iranian strikes are causing turmoil in numerous Gulf countries.

Npr's Ruth Sherlock in Turkey, close to the border with Iran, where she's been speaking with Iranians coming across the border. She's with us now. Ruth, hello. Thanks so much for joining us. Hi. Good morning. As we said, you've been on the border with Iran. Tell us what you're seeing.

Well, Michelle, people are coming out traumatized. Iran isn't letting Western journalists into the country, but speaking with Iranians here on the border, it really drives home the horror of this war for civilians. Everyone was too scared to give their name as speaking with Western media has gotten people arrested in Iran. This man talked about his journey out.

Very dangerous night, farming.

Very dangerous. It's a little hard to hear, but he's saying there was bombing through the night as he traveled, children killed in Iran. He says he and his family have come to Turkey for shelter. I also spoke with a doctor from Tehran who described the terror of being engulfed in smoke and feeling the backblast of a strike that hit close to her car on the journey out. She says she's also witnessing many, many civilian casualties from these strikes. You know, these are densely packed neighborhoods, and she says residential buildings are also getting hit. She's been treating civilians with horrific injuries, she says. The Iranian Ministry of Health records 926 people killed in just these few days. And despite all this, I saw a large number of people heading back into Iran. Communications are largely down in the country, and many people just said that they couldn't cope with not knowing if their families were okay and would rather be with them despite the danger.

Wow, that's interesting. Tell us more about what these people who are heading back are heading back into.

Well, there's continued heavy bombardment by Israeli and US forces on Tehran and other cities. Another thing we're watching closely is Iran's Western border with Iraq. Turkey and Iran are responding to reports that Iranian Kurdish militias have consulted with the United States in recent days about possible attacks against against the Iranian regime. Turkey is saying it's watching closely. Iran is saying it's targeting what it called separatist militias in that region that it said intended to act against security forces there.

Okay, what it called separatist militias, I see. So beyond Iran, there are also still major concerns about the Gulf region being drawn into the conflict?

That's right. Iran is saying to the Gulf countries that it strikes against them. They're actually aimed at hitting US military bases and assets there. But the attacks are having this crippling effect on Gulf economies, and they've paralyzed the energy sector. Qatar's Prime Minister, Sheik Mohamed Al Thani, told Iran's Foreign Minister yesterday, Qatar that it préfers diplomacy, but this aggression, he said, cannot go unanswered. Meanwhile, there's also reports of a new attack off the Coast of Kuwait. This would mean an expansion of the area where commercial shipping is also in danger.

That is Ruth Schollek, near Turkey's border with Iran. Ruth, thank you so much.

Thank you so Thank you very much.

We have some information about two more US Army reservists killed in Sunday's Iranian drone strike, 54-year-old Chief Warrant Officer, Robert Marzhan of Sacramento, California, and 45-year-old Major Jeffrey O'Brien of Waki, O'I Iowa. They are among six US service members killed in the attack in Kuwait. In Iran, a panel of clerks is who will replace Ayatoll Ali Khamenehi, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike at the start of the war.

Whoever is chosen will sit atop a complicated governing system. There's an elected President, there's a legislature, there's a lot of security agencies, a regular army, and a whole separate army called the Revolutionary Guard. But if you put that government on a chart, all the lines of power ultimately would run back to that Supreme Leader.

Npr International Affairs Correspondent Jackie Northam is with us now to tell us more about this. Jackie, good morning to you.

Morning, Michelle.

Who are some of the front runners for Supreme Leader of Iran?

Well, there are four main front runners that the 88-member Panel of Clerks will consider. The Panel is having to meet virtually because the Israelis bombed the building where they were supposed to meet. Anyway, there's quite a mix There are basically two main routes they can take. First, the non-dynastic route, we can call it, with Ali Reza Arafi. He's a cleric, very prominent in Iran's religious establishment and considered a hardliner. There's also Hassan Rouhani, Khomeini, a moderate and former President of Iran. Then we have the family route where there is Hassan Khomeini, who's the grandson of the founding father of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini, and he's seen as a relative moderate. Finally, Michelle, there's Mosha Ba Hamenei, and he is the 56-year-old son of Ayatollah Hamenei. He's considered the leading contender to become Iran's next Supreme Leader.

Tell us more about him, if you would.

Mosha Ba Hamenei has been described to me as an unknown quantity, someone in the background. He is considered a hardliner who's closely associated with a violent crackdown on protesters in Iran in 2009. Now, Mosha Ba has important connections. Of all the candidates, he's the one who is closest to the Powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. He's also well connected in his late father's office, and these are the two most important parts of the regime. If they support him, there's a good chance he'll be Iran's next leader.

So ifMushdabat Kamenayi is chosen, will that be seen as a signal that the regime wants continuity, even as this war is ongoing?

It would. Moshtaba would be seen as a status quo candidate. But analysts I spoke with say the current system can't be sustained. Iran is weakened from war and widespread protests. Its economy is battered, and it needs to transform if it wants to have legitimacy. The other thing is the next Supreme Leader will not wield as much power as Kamenayi during his nearly 40 years in power, the Revolutionary Guards have gained enormous power over Iran's economy and its military. Jonathan Panekoff, Director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, says a new Supreme Leader will be deferential to the Revolutionary Guards. Here he is.

Where we end up in a situation in which it's senior officials from the guards fundamentally running the country, and we end up in what's closer to a military dictatorship with a fig leaf to a religious leader than we do with a supreme leader like Ayatollah Hamini, who's actually calling the shots and has the final word.

And yet, when the late Ayatollah Hamini was chosen as supreme leader, he was considered weak and pliable. But you He proved to be cunning and ruthless and went on to become one of the most powerful leaders in the Middle East.

That is NPR International Affairs Correspondent, Jackie North. Jackie, thank you.

Thank you.

As the US Israeli war with Iran expands, China is stepping into the crisis with a high-profile diplomatic move.

Beijing is sending a special envoy to the Middle East to help mediate.

We're joined by NPR's China My Correspondent Jennifer Paak in Beijing for the latest Jennifer, Good morning.

Good morning.

Could you just start by telling us who this envoy is and what we know about his assignment?

Well, China today named the envoy it's sending to the Middle East. His name is Zhaijun, and he's He's been serving as an envoy to the region since 2019. But the foreign ministry didn't provide more details or say specifically which countries he would be visiting. Now, there are two reasons why China is stepping in. The first is strategic. China has economic interests in the Middle East. It gets part of its oil supply from the region. Here's a Chinese politics expert at the National University of Singapore, Zha'in Cheung.

They have this long-standing relationship with the Iranian government.

They've invested a lot in Iran.

Part of that arrangement has to do with getting oil and gas out of Iran.

And that's not just from Iran. China also buys oil and gas from the rest of the region, he says, and now the conflict is affecting that supply. The second reason is a diplomatic one. This is a real opportunity for China to portray itself as a, quote, force for peace. It has been urging all sides to stop military operations and return to the negotiating table.

Do we have any sense of whether that cooperation with Iran extends to military assistance So far, no.

It does raise the question of whether other countries would think it's worthwhile to enter into a strategic partnership with China, given that it doesn't extend to security protection. Analyst, Cheung offers a different interpretation.

China is trying to feel its way around being a great power, again, a great power in the contemporary period.

The big question, he says, is what this envoy can realistically achieve. Given that China is not impartial in this, China is way more closely aligned with Iran than with either the US or Israel.

Jennifer, how is Beijing making sense of the events of the last few days?

Well, Beijing is clearly uncomfortable with what's happening in the Middle East and elsewhere, for example, Venezuela earlier this year, especially since from From a Beijing standpoint, the Trump administration has been freely talking about regime change and taking out political leaders unilaterally. It's a sign for the Chinese that the world is getting more volatile. So at an important political meeting just this morning, Premier Li Qiang talked about external challenges. He says multilateralism and free trade are under severe threat. For China, this uncertainty is coming at a bad time. Its economic growth is at its lowest in decades, This morning, Li Qiang also set a goal for China's annual growth of 4. 5 to 5%. So China is clearly preparing its population for slower growth and more uncertainty ahead.

So how is China preparing for this uncertainty?

Well, China says it will to invest and modernize its military for deterrence. It has increased its defense budget by 7% compared to last year. Also, China is doubling down on industrial manufacturing and tech innovation. All of this is about self-reliance so that when the US, say, imposes export controls on American high tech products, China might hurt less.

That is NPR's Jennifer Peck in Beijing. Jennifer, thank you.

Thank you.

And that's up for On Thursday, March fifth. I'm Michelle Martin.

And I'm Steve Inskeep. Today's Up First was edited by Hannah Block, Miguel Macias, James Hyder, Tina Cria, Mohamed El Bar-Disi, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Zied Batch and Ben Abrams. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering We've got some great support from Nisha Hyness, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Hi there, Carly. Our Deputy Executive Producer is Kelly Dicken. Join us tomorrow.

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