Transcript of Iran War Escalates, Kurds Stay Out, Global Shipping Crisis

Israel bombed Iran's oil facilities over the weekend, causing black rain to fall over the capital, Tehran.

A senior Israeli official tells NPR's Daniel Eshtrin, Israel expects to defeat Iran in about three weeks.

I'm Michelle Martin. That's Steve Inske, and this is Up First from NPR News. One of the groups that could rise up against Iran's government is ethnic Kurds. Many live in Western Iran. Others live across the border in Iraq. But an Iraqi leader tells NPR they are, not guns for hire. So what is their role in the Middle East war?

Also, the war is blocking traffic through one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. Tankers and container ships are not passing through the Strait of Hormuze, and a global energy crisis is growing. Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

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Here's a big question hanging over the US and Israeli war in Iran. How long will this war last?

That question is becoming urgent as the war begins to affect the global economy. Israel escalated the war over the weekend, bombing oil facilities. The disruption of shipments from multiple nations has sent the price of oil soaring. Iran shows no sign of giving in after choosing a new supreme leader over the weekend.

A senior Israeli military official spoke with NPR's Daniel Eshtrin about how Israel views the prospects for ending the war. Hey there, Daniel. Hi, Steve. Okay, so what is the Israeli timeline.

Well, just as we're speaking here, you might hear the alarms. We are getting advanced notice on our phones that an Iranian missile is on its way to Israel. We have a few minutes now to speak before the air rate sirens will go off. Got it. But I'll tell you that Israel is expecting that it needs about three weeks to achieve its goals in Iran. That's what a senior Israeli defense official told me this weekend. This person is in the military's operations directorate. Spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss Israel's military plans, but he says the goal is to decimate Iran's army, navy, military industries. Israel also realizes that President Trump could just end the war at any point. The US is not giving a timeline on how it sees the war and how long it would take. But we do know that the US has not been happy with Israel's targeting of the Iranian oil depots this weekend.

Daniel, of course, you're going to move when you need to to be safe. Don't worry about us at all, but glad you're with us for another moment. It sounds like there's a little bit of daylight between the US and Israel here. Sure. But why did Israel target Iran's oil facilities? Pretty dramatic.

Yeah, well, Israel said that Iran was using that oil to fuel Iranian missiles launched at Israel. But this is also civilian infrastructure we're talking about. Us officials have been displeased with the extent of the damage that Israel caused, those skies that were blackened and the oily raindrops that dropped onto Tehran. So I heard from a person briefed on the matter, not authorized to speak publicly, that the US was not pleased with the extent of that damage. Even Senator Lindsay Graham, who's close to Prime Minister Netanyahu, tweeted publicly, Israel, be cautious about your targets because Iran's oil economy will be needed when Iran's regime collapses.

Or Graham hopes it will collapse, although the Iranians seem to be showing what they would consider to be resolved by choosing a supreme leader with the same name as the old supreme leader.

That's right. Iran has appointed Mujdaba Hamina'i to be the new Supreme Leader. He's the son of Ayatollah Ali Hamina'i, who was killed by Israel on day one of the war. The son is seen as even more hard-lined than the father was. But Iran has sent a message as well this weekend that it can exact a painful price around the region, not just Israel. We saw Iran launch a missile with a dangerous cluster bomb warhead that hit an apartment building here in Tel Aviv, just a few minutes drive from me in Tel Aviv, and attacks on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia took place this weekend as well. We're seeing the Gulf get dragged into this conflict as well. They've been very hesitant to take part in the war, so we're going to have to see where that goes.

Okay. Npr's Daniel Lestran is in Tel Aviv. Daniel, be sure to We're ready to move if you need to in the next few minutes. Appreciate your insights.

You're welcome.

Our next report on the war takes us to the Western border of Iran, and it helps to get the geography down.

Okay, so try to picture this. Ethnic Kurds live on both sides of the border. On On the one side, the Kurds are part of Iran. On the other side, Kurds control their own region of Iraq. Some Iranian armed opposition groups have been based on the Iraqi side for decades. The US has talked of encouraging those Kurds to attack Iran. In recent days, President Trump has suggested that he was for it, but then said he is against it.

Npr's Jane Raaf is on the Iraqi side of the border in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. She spoke with the Deputy Prime Minister there, Kubad Talebani, on Sunday. She's in the city of Sulamania. Hi there, Jane. Hi. Okay, so what does the Iraqi Kurdish leader say about these Iranian Kurdish groups who seem to live on his territory?

Well, as you know, the Kurds have long been strong US allies, including the fight against ISIS. Now, this was Talibani's first interview with Western media since the start of the war, and he wanted to make clear that neither Iraqi nor Iranian Kurd here would be part of the fight. Let's listen.

We have explained maybe some of the flaws behind the thought of using Iranian Kurds as the tip of the spear to launch any potential uprisings within Iran.

Talibani is Deputy Prime Minister for the entire Kurdistan region, but he says his brother, Vafal Talibani, who's head of the party that controls this part of Iraqi Kurdistan, spoke with Trump last week and relayed this message.

Our forces would not get involved under any circumstances. This is not our war. We've made that very clear.

Talibani points out that in a country the size of Western Europe with 90 million people, Iran and multiple ethnic groups, chaos would be disastrous.

I appreciate that statement that Iran's the size of Western Europe. You realize what it would take to invade and take over such a place. I want to explain further where you are. The Kurdistan region of Iraq broke away from the Iraqi government many years ago, but it's still part of Iraq. How vulnerable is it to getting involved in the war, whether it wants to or not?

Well, it is definitely squeezed in the middle. On one side, there's Iran, and on the other side, the pro-Iranian-Iraqi government. Us military bases in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan region, have been the most heavily hit by Iran, and Iran-backed Iraqi militias. But Suleymanya province, where we are, has also been attacked by drones and missiles. Here's what Taliban said about those Iraqi attacks.

These are groups that are paid by the state firing at us. What's going on here?

Has Iran been in contact with the Kurds during this war?

Yes. He says the last time was just a few days ago when a high-level delegation alarmed by news reports that the US was pressing for armed opposition groups here to cross the border came from Tehran.

They were trying to understand the realities of this reporting, about whether or not we're about to invade Iran. We made it very clear, no, we have no interest and there's no means to, and that is not our policy.

Talibani says there's a misconception in the US about the Kurds.

We always get labeled with good fighters. Every US President, maybe since Bill Clinton, in some form or fashion, talked about how good a fighter we are. But we're not guns for hire.

He says they just want to govern their region, build the economy, and live in peace.

Okay. Npr's Jane Araf reporting from the Kurdish City of Sulamania. Thanks so much.

Thank you.

Let's get another voice from near Iran's Western border. Our co-host, Leila Fadel, is there.

Hey, it's Leila Fadel. I'm speaking to you as I cross the border into Iraqi Kurdistan. I want to let you know that all week, you'll hear dispatches from our team on the ground in the midst of the US Israeli War on Iran. I chose to come here not just because it neighbors Iran and is heavily influenced by both the Iranian and US governments, But because of the eerie echoes of the past, echoes that started the moment the US dropped its first bombs on Iran, President Trump addressed Americans.

A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating eminent threats from the Iranian regime.

23 years ago, the American people heard a similar address.

My fellow citizens, at this hour, American and coalition forces are in the early stages of military operations to disarm Iraq, to free its people, and to defend the world from grave danger.

President George W. Bush's war against Iraq was supposed to be decisive and short. It lasted over a decade, cost upwards of a trillion dollars, sparked a civil war, and left deep scars on Iraqis who lived through the war and the US soldiers who fought here. So we will explore what the future may hold, but also try to understand the lessons of the past that continue to haunt Americans, Iraqis, and the region. Look out for our reports right here on Up First and on our radio show, Morning Edition, that you can listen to on your local station or your NPR app.

The war has created an enormous bottleneck in the Strait of Hormous.

Hundreds of oil tankers are stuck on both sides of this critical Middle East waterway out of fear of attack by Iran. There are now escalating concerns of a global energy crisis, but it's not just oil tankers. Cargo ships are also stranded, creating a shortage of essential goods getting to the Persian Gulf region.

Npr international affairs correspondent, Jackie Northam, joins us next. Jackie, good morning. Good morning, Steve. Okay, wow. One-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes through this one strait, the Strait of Hormuz. Is it just as important for the container ships? Right.

Well, container ships represent a much smaller global percentage, about 3% than the oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuze, but they're carrying valuable cargo, aluminum, fertilizer, and food to the Middle East. I spoke with Matthew Wright He's the lead freight analyst at Kepler, which is a global trade intelligence provider. He says the Middle East relies on the container ships.

90% of its food is imports, particularly on the fresh side. The fact that those cargoes are not able to go in, this could be a fairly critical issue for the region.

Wright says at the moment, container ships are not passing through the Strait of Hormuze because of the security risk. Last week, a container ship did come under attack. The crew abandoned ship. It's been in drift. When a tugboat from the United Arab Emirates went out to assist it, it was struck by a missile, killing all eight on board.

Amazing then. What happens to the cargo of all these ships when they can't move?

Well, it sits. It sits in port. There are roughly a 120 cargo ships in limbo at ports in the Gulf region. And not surprisingly, shipping companies are not accepting new bookings because we've got all this fresh food and the other things sitting there, and they have no idea the companies how long the conflict is going to last. And as I spoke with, say the shipping industry is designed to keep things moving. And the situation in the Strait of Hormuze is scrambling. That cargo is piling up, stress on the ports, things are slowing down, and all this is not good from a market standpoint.

Okay. As I understand it, President Trump has talked of the US Navy escorting tankers and ships through the Strait of Hormuze, which would be a replay of the 1980s when something like this happened. The US put flags on oil tankers and so forth to get them through safely. But when he raises that idea in the 21st century, what reception does it get?

Luke warm, I would say. The US Navy also tried this in the Red Sea using escorts to protect ships from attacks by Yemen's Houthis. And let's say it didn't have much impact. And let's face it, Iran is more sophisticated than the Houthis from a military point of view and its ability to target moving vessels. And traveling alongside a US naval vessel might make a tanker or a container ship more of a tempting target for Iran. But you know, Steve, Iran knows that launching the odd missile or drone at a vessel or even the threat of one can strangle marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuza, like we're seeing now. It's using that as a weapon. This bottleneck is creating serious threat for the global energy shipping and frankly, the global economy.

And for us, Jackie Northam, thanks so much.

Thank you.

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I'm Michelle Martin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Hannah Block, Tina Kraja, James Hyder, Mohamed El Bardisi, and H. J. Mai. It was produced by Zied Batch and Ben Abrams. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get Engineering support from Nisha Hynes, and our technical director is Carly Strange. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

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