Transcript of War in Iran Triggers Chaos in Global Oil Market New

From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kytrelef. This is The Daily. As the war on Iran enters its second week, concerns about a global energy crisis are growing. In the last week, as Iran tightened its chokehold on one of the world's most vital shipping routes, and the Trump administration sent mixed signals about how long the war would last.

Oil was on another roller coaster again today.

Oil prices have swung wildly.

It shot up like a geyser to $119 a barrel.

They surged to their highest levels in years.

Today, oil prices closed down about 9% at $86 a barrel.

And then suddenly plunged.

The war with Iran is impacting 20%, a fifth of the world's oil supply, making this the worst oil disruption the world has ever experienced.

Today, with my colleague, Rebecca Elliott, on how the volatility has exposed just how much the world depends on the narrow waterway at the center of the growing crisis, the Strait of Hormu's, and how quickly shutting that straight down, can throw global energy markets into utter chaos. It's Wednesday, March 11th. Rebecca, welcome to The Daily Natalie. First time on the show. Thank you for being here.

Yeah. Thanks so much for having me, Natalie.

We are coming to you because you are, I think it's fair to say, an undisputed authority on oil here at the Times. Over the last week, the concerns over the war in the Middle East have grown to include not just a very real and dangerous conflict, but also building panic over a potential global energy crisis stemming from that conflict. All of that worry has focused on this one shipping route that butts up against Iran, which is the Strait of Hormous. Tell us about that Strait.

The Strait sits between Iran to the north, and then Oman United Arab Emirates to the south. It is essentially a choke point through which about a fifth of the world's oil and a lot of natural gas normally goes every day. It allows oil and gas from the Persian Gulf to reach world markets. The challenge with the Strait is that it's really narrow. It's only about 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, and the shipping lanes are even smaller.

Oman's maritime security Center says an oil tanker has been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, injuring four crew.

And so what has been happening since this war started is that some vessels passing through the Strait have been attacked. They're attacked. Attention, all ships. Attention, all ships. Attention, all ships. From now on, all navigating through the Strait of Hormuz is forbidden. No ships in every time. And what you're seeing is that traffic through the strait has just slowed to a trickle. While this is not an officially recognized closure, shipping has been completely stalled in the strait. For a combination of reasons. One, physical security. Iran has attacked a number of vessels in the region since the war started, and so people are worried for their safety, worried about, okay, what happens if there is an attack on a tanker that is filled with oil? Revolutionary Guards Commander did say that they will set fire to any ship trying to pass that- You also have a lot of insurance companies saying, You know what? This isn't for us. It's a lot harder and a lot more expensive to get the financial backing that you would want to make this journey.

Okay, and you said these tankers are backed up. What's the fallout of that?

What you have is vessels essentially waiting, stuck on either side of the strait. Stranded. Stranded. Tankers can't get in to pick up the oil and gas that they're meant to, and they can't get out. That means that a huge amount of energy is not reaching world markets. More than 80% of the oil and what is known as liquefied natural gas, this is gas that has been cooled so that it can be put on a ship. More than 80% of that from this region normally goes to Asia. Wow. Without being able to count on that energy arriving soon, you're starting to see prices rise really dramatically. Oil prices have been really volatile since the war started. One of the starkest examples of that happened this past Sunday evening into Monday, when you saw prices swing by as much as, I think, around $30 a barrel, which is a lot. Which is a lot, right? So prices on Sunday night reached above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, which, of course, was in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And they really swung a huge amount throughout the day as people tried to figure out how long is this war going to last?

How long is it going to remain difficult to get oil out of the Persian Gulf, and people trying to read the tea leaves of President Trump's remarks about the war.

Which seem to change every day. It seems like we get a new piece of information from Trump, sometimes contradictory information about how long this is going to go on.

Yeah, it's really unclear sitting here today what exactly the goalposts are The answer to that question means a lot for the energy market. Gasoline has gotten more expensive. Diesel has gotten more expensive in the US. It's more expensive to fill up your car than it before the war started. You're seeing governments in many parts of the world start to make policy changes, ration energy. Some really good examples that my colleagues have written about in the last few days is, South Korea said it would cap prices at the pump for the first time in almost 30 years. Wow. India temporarily suspended cremations using gas. You're seeing governments basically try to fast track energy efficiency measures and implement other tools meant to prevent them from running out.

Right. They're trying to basically limit their usage for now as much as possible.

Exactly. Many countries that depend on energy from outside of their borders are saying, We might not be able to count on getting more, so let's do the best we can with what we have now.

Right. As the conflict has dragged on and on, the conversation seems to have turned much more to the possibility that what we may be looking at is a genuine oil shock, a genuine supply shock. I think one of the main questions that people are asking is, how bad is this going to get?

Honestly, anyone's guess, it is so hard to predict oil prices. In trying to answer this question, I've been thinking a lot about the oil shocks that the world experienced in the 1970s. So 1973, Israel was in a war against Egypt and Syria. The United States backed Israel.

World Wars among big powers are quite possible to control dwindling oil suppliers.

And in response, the Arab members of an oil cartel known as OPAAC, cut the US off from oil produced in that region. The Middle East War produced developments all over the world today.

The oil-producing countries of the Arab world decided to use their oil as a political weapon.

So overnight, the United States lost access to a tremendous amount of oil. If the Arab countries keep that pledge, it would reduce their production by almost 50% in one year. Members of OPEC at the time were also raising prices. And so what you saw between between October 1973 and early that following year was oil prices quadrupled.

Just extraordinary.

Which is just extraordinary. And so the shocks to economies around the world were huge. To increase the supply of heating oil that will be available this winter, we must adjust production schedules and divert petroleum, which might normally go for the production of gasoline, to the production of more heating oil.

In the Dalles area today, dealers raised prices to more than 40 cents a gallon.

Not only was energy a lot more expensive almost overnight, there also wasn't enough of it. Well, my son is trying to see how much gas we have left in the tank and whether we can make it out on the Sawn Mill River Parkway. So he stuck his walkie-talkie at 10 in the tank, which I do not see we're going to get out. And so you had fuel rationing. Are you willing to slow down to 50 miles an hour? No. Why not? Because it's stupid. The government implemented a nationwide 55-mile-per-hour speed limit on US highways. I've been in two gas lines already. This morning? This morning. How long did you wait for the first?

I've been in both lines over an hour, and I'm out of gas.

Dead out. Really long lines to get gasoline. This is unreal. Isn't this disgusting?

Why doesn't anybody contact the President? Why is he letting this happen to us?

People People were panicking.

Yeah, it's wild to imagine oil rationing in the United States. Do we really think that's a possibility today? How apt is the comparison between that shock and what we're experiencing now?

The world looks really different today than it did 50-some years ago, and that's It's partly to do with changes that many countries made in response to that energy crisis. You had major efforts to reduce dependency on oil, whether by figuring out how to use it more efficiently or by transitioning to alternative forms of energy. One example that I just learned about was in Japan, in an effort to try to use air conditioning less. The Prime Minister pushed for people to start wearing short sleeve suits. Apparently, it never caught on.

What an image. I wish it had.

It would be an interesting look.

Definitely.

Those are some examples of ways that countries tried to use less oil. Fuel economy standards are a legacy of that moment. You also saw many places shift toward alternatives such as nuclear energy. This is really motivated by concerns about energy security.

You're saying the shift toward prioritizing things like fuel efficiency in cars, who are drawing on other fuel sources. That's primarily about countries trying to secure their own energy independence, trying to protect themselves, essentially from a repetition of what happened in 1973.

Right. In the US, one of the biggest differences is that the country went from being a net importer of oil to a net exporter today.

How did that happen?

Fracking, drilling down horizontally under the Earth and fracturing the rock to let oil and gas come up. This really revolutionized the US oil and gas industry and helped the country become the world's top producer of oil and gas, passing Saudi Arabia, passing Russia. This, in combination with the buildout of renewables in recent years, has made the country much less dependent on oil and gas from the Gulf than it used to be.

Basically, since 1973, the whole world, in response to that crisis, has become a lot less dependent on oil, relatively speaking. The US, in particular, has become much less dependent on foreign countries for the oil that it does consume.

That's right. Things look very different today than they did in the 1970s. Oil meets a much smaller share of the world's energy needs. That said, it still matters in big ways for the economy. Oil and gas are used for a whole lot of things that we need every day. Producing electricity, producing gasoline and diesel and jet fuel. So when you don't have access to those fuels, it ripples through the global economy in ways that will get much worse the longer the straight remains effectively closed.

We'll be right back. Rebecca, you've made it clear that the effects of this building crisis are going to compound, are going to get worse and worse each day that this shutdown continues. You told us earlier that there were currently many ships just stranded waiting to pass through the Strait of Hormu's, with very few actually making it. What is the outlook for those stranded tankers? Barring the war ending, is there any way this situation changes in the Strait in the near term?

The Strait is one of Iran's very big points of leverage, and Iran has said that it will attack vessels that go through. It's hard to imagine the situation shifting considerably in the near term. The United States, President Trump, have floated some ideas. During this brief disruption, the United States is offering political risk insurance to any tankers operating in the Gulf. One being providing additional insurance options. Will perhaps go alongside of them for protection. We don't think it'll be necessary. The other being a naval escort for tankers through the strait.

If they do anything, the price will be incalculable.

So far, the US has not escorted a vessel through the strait. So we'll see. But remember, if you're a mariner, Iran has committed to disrupting the strait. Several tankers have been attacked. A shipyard worker died in Bahrain. There are huge physical risks here at the moment associated with making this journey. I think until that changes, whatever that looks like, it's still going to be very difficult to get energy out of the Persian Gulf.

What about the oil companies? Obviously, this is a huge problem for them, too. They have all this oil just sitting around and they can't get it to where it's supposed to go.

That's right. They're running out of places to put it. Storage tanks are filling up. You've started to see countries throughout the region cut back production, turn off wells, and reduce refinery processing. That means they're turning less oil into gasoline and diesel and other products.

Just explain, Rebecca, why it's such a big deal that they are turning off the spigot. What does that actually mean?

It's not the same thing as turning off your faucet, where when you turn it back on, water just comes right back out again. It's called shutting in a well. When you do that, you can risk damaging the well, essentially. When you try to turn it back on, maybe there's not enough pressure, not as much oil is going to come out. The risk is that these disruptions last longer than the war.

What countries are going to be most affected by what's happening? Who's going to feel it first and most deeply?

I'm going to oversimplify and divide the world between producers and consumers. If we're talking about the consuming countries, many of those that are going to be affected fastest are those in Asia, for example, that depend really heavily on imported oil and natural gas. Then on the producer side, it's the countries that can't get anything out. One of the countries that acted really quickly was Qatar, which is a huge natural gas producer and exporter. Within days of the start of the war, they decided to stop cooling natural gas for export. That caused prices basically immediately to rise considerably in Europe and in Asia.

Right. These are pretty major decisions, right? I mean, it's not just major for the countries that produce it, it's the countries that are depending on it. It has an immediate impact.

Absolutely. Remember, Oil markets, in particular, are global. So even though in the United States, we produce tremendous amounts of oil, we're still affected by higher prices elsewhere.

Right. Just because we're not dependent on the straight in the same way, we are still affected by the disruption to it and the chaos that it unleashes on the market. To that end, Rebecca, is there anything the administration could do to limit the potential impact of all this on consumers in the US, especially as the war keeps going on?

The Trump administration has a few options. One of the first is what's known as the strategic petroleum reserve. So going Coming back to the oil crisis in 1973, after that, the US created a strategic stockpile of oil. In moments like these, the US has the option of releasing some of that oil into the market. That has been an active conversation in recent days, not just in the US, but among other countries series known as the G7. Another option that would have a potentially limited effect would be to temporarily lift the gasoline tax, which would save people 18 cents on a gallon. So that would take some of the pressure off. And in a very extreme scenario, you could see Congress stepping in to ban ban oil exports. That type of a ban was actually in place until 2015. Oh, wow. You couldn't export oil from the US, and then Congress lifted that during the Obama administration as the US became the biggest oil producer in the world, largely because of fracking. I haven't heard that as being a realistic scenario are quite on the table yet, but that is the extreme option that the US might have.

Okay, so not a lot on the table, and what is available that could make a real difference may be quite radical. What about longer term solutions here? I'm thinking about the 1973 oil embargo and how that compelled many countries, including the US, to reduce their dependents on oil. Do Do you see this crisis as having a similar potential effect, forcing policymakers, lawmakers to rethink their energy needs, to redesign them? In other words, what do you think the long-term lessons of this crisis could be.

That's going to depend a lot on how long this situation lasts, how high energy prices get, and how long they stay there. In a scenario where they remain expensive for a long time, I think that thinking about 1973 and the aftermath is instructive. Big events like this do tend to change behavior, change how people think about energy. The reaction may be different in the United States, which is very rich in oil and gas.

Right. Where Trump has been very adverse to these alternative fuel sources. I mean, it's hard to imagine him jumping back into renewables in a way that we'd been seeing in the past.

Right. This is all happening as the Trump administration is making it more difficult to install solar panels and wind turbines and other equipment that would enable us to harness the sun and harness the wind. I think the reaction will differ regionally, but in countries that are really dependent on foreign sources of oil and natural gas, they may think more seriously about, Okay, how do we move to alternatives, perhaps even more quickly than we were before?

But you have to wonder, or at least I do, whether in this case, people policymakers, lawmakers, just end up looking at this episode and blaming Trump and Israel for it, for all the disruption that has followed from the initial attack. This appears, I think to many, as a war of choice, and those strikes are what prompted all of this. It seems possible that there would be some reticence to see this as revealing some structural problem and more a willingness to see it as potentially a one-off attributable to these two leaders in this moment and their decisions.

It's certainly possible. But what I think has been very clear over the last several days and weeks, is that this huge risk that energy experts have been talking and thinking about for years, the risk that the Strait of Hormuze would close, is now playing out in real time. I think it's hard to imagine that people just go back and say, Okay, this is fine. People remember gas prices. It's one of those things that is in your face all the time, every day. It's hard to imagine that especially if prices rise further and stay there for a long time, that it won't shape and change how people think about energy. It's exposing a big vulnerability in the global energy system. We know from price shocks in the past, Just that when events like this happen, people change. The whole world changes.

Well, Rebecca, thank you so much.

Thank you for having me.

At least three ships in and around the Strait of Hormuze were attacked on Wednesday, according to a British maritime monitoring group. Iran's naval commander appeared to take responsibility for the strike on one of the ships, which he said, quote, Ignored the warnings. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. The US military said on Tuesday evening that it had attacked 16 Iranian mine laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in the day, Trump had threatened Iran over reports that mines were being deployed in the Strait. The news kept off a day of confusion about the viability and security of the passageway. After the US Energy Secretary posted on social media that a Navy warship had successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait, oil prices plunged in a sign of new optimism about the route opening up. But then shortly afterward, a military official said that hadn't happened. The social media post was deleted, and prices went back up. And on Capitol Hill-I emerge from this briefing as dissatisfied satisfied and angry, frankly, as I have from any past briefing in my 15 years in the Senate. After receiving a classified briefing from Trump officials on the war, Senate Democrats warned that the administration was not close to achieving its goals.

We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran.

And demanded public hearings on the objectives and end for the war. This is a disaster of epic proportions.

It's already getting Americans killed. It's driving up prices here at home. This has just been a debacle, a 10-day debacle.

And airstrikes continued in Lebanon on Tuesday, where Israel's mass evacuation orders and bombing campaign have made the country a new front in the expanding war. A humanitarian crisis is looming there, and the United Nations has said that 700,000 people in Lebanon have been displaced from their homes. The Pentagon said on Tuesday that Iranian airstrikes had wounded 140 US service members, in addition to the seven US service members who have been killed. Today's episode was produced by Kaitlyn O'Keefe, Diana Wyn, and Nina Feldman. It was edited by Devon Taylor and Lisa Chow, and contains music by Dan Powell and Marion Lozano. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Alyssa Mosley. That's it for The Daily. I'm Natalie Kitrowath. See you tomorrow.