Transcript of Winnipeg Jets 2024-25 NHL Season Preview | The Steve Dangle Podcast

Normally, when I'm talking about a team, I try to save the over-under for later because I want to know what Jesse and Steve, and I'll give you mine, too. I want to know what your predictions are going to be for their points this year and where they're going to finish in the division. But I think it's worth mentioning off the top that the Winnipeg Jets over under is a pretty gigantic insult to the Winnipeg Jets.

According to you.

They were really, really good.

Yeah. They were second in their division and second in the conference. A hundred and ten points. Playoffs didn't go the way they wanted them to, but that happens sometimes. We can relate. The over under on the 110 point season last year, this year is 95 and a half.

Wow. That's about right.

You think that's about right. That's about right. Jesse. All right.

I have them taking a step back, but not that significant.

I mean, everything did go right for the Winnipeg Jets last year from the moment that the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade was announced. There's no question. The Winnipeg Jets have fantastic goal tending. They were well-coached. We don't know how our new head coach, Scott Arneill, is going to get this team going, but everything seemed to go really, really well. And assuming the Cole Perfetti deal gets signed or is signed at the point of you watching this, this looks like a really, really good team. Jesse, I want to start with you because you're pretty on this. Why do you think they're taking a step back?

No, I look at the numbers and I say they are earmarked for a regression. More than any other team in this division right now. If you look at their goal scoring last year, their 22nd in power play, 15th in goals. If you go on Money Puck and you look at their expected goals, they're 21st. They did this all through goal tending. I want to challenge the Winnipeg Jets fans this season. I'm going to challenge you all and I'm going to say, your starting goal tender, Connor Halebuck, will not have a safe percentage above 920 again. He's done it for two consecutive seasons. Goalies who have never had three consecutive 920 seasons, Patrick Waal, Andre Vasilesky, UC Sarros, Marc-Andre Fleury, Ed Belfour, the greatest goalies of this game don't have three consecutive 9-20 seasons. Somebody who does, though, and it's unbelievable, he has six consecutive 9-20 seasons, Dominic Aschik. There are levels to things, and he's on this other level. But the guys I listed are amongst the best goalies we got. I put UC Soros in there for a modern-day goal tender. But I'm just willing to bet that, okay, you also lose Monahan, Toffoli.

You don't have them in your roster anymore. The goal scoring is still not going to really be there. Plus, you're not going to get as good goal tending. Natural regression, 95 points sounds about right. That's my argument.

You're betting against Connor Halbuck, which is profoundly psychotic.

It's stupid. But you guys, hold me At the end of the year, if his say percentage is above 920, more kudos to you. But I'm willing to bet it's not.

Up front, here's what makes the Winnipeg Jets so difficult to evaluate.

Sorry, that's the Winnipeg Hockey Jets? The Winnipeg Hockey Jets makes them so difficult to evaluate.

Connor Halebuck, I mean, should be the free space. But you made an argument. It's very difficult to do year in and year out. Their defense was very good last year. That hasn't changed all that much. Here's what makes things difficult. So Monahan and Toffoli, that's 52 combined games that they got out of them. So that's not just a rental, right? You had Monahan for nearly half the season last year. That's significant. Here's where the room to improve could potentially come from. Your top goal scorer had 34 goals. That was from Kyle Connor, who missed 17 games. Shifley was second in assists on the team with 47. He missed eight games. Top seven scores on the Jets combined for 76 games missed last year. So nearly a full season missed from all of your top offensive players. I think only Nikolai Eelers, out of that group, played every single game.

And Bones That was against Rick Bones' better judgment. He did not like Nikolai Eelers for some reason.

I think it was 62 points.

I know. But then for whatever reason, Nikolai Eelers is like, No, don't like him.

Not pressing him. Sixty-one.

Even so, I think that this is going be a fascinating... You talk about Jesse Monahan, and you talk about Toffoli being gone. Yes, that's bad. But they were not there most of the year. When I look back at this, the big thing that stands out to me for Winnipeg is goal differential. Their goal differential was a plus 60. They allowed less than 200 goals last year.

No way.

199.

That's awesome. They were first in the league in goals against, right?

They did lose Laurent Poitouat because he had a 9-27 save for a second, which was... He was insane. That to me...

Do you expect Cackinen and Eric Comrie to have a repeat performance of a 9-27?

I want to bring something to your thing. Because the previous year, the Winnipeg backup was Big Save of David. Yes.

And he was great.

Well, okay. He was? Because here's what I want to throw out there. You had Halibuck, who played like, 61, 62 games, allowed 157 goals. Big Save Dave played 20 games, allowed 50 goals. So they only allowed 207 the year before. I think this is maybe what the Winnipeg Jets are, assuming they have a goalie who can just be a good goalie. Because Big Save Dave, he's not great.

Cackinen has had a very difficult start to his career. Yeah.

Is this not more a function of how the Jets play defense? Team defense?

Yes. They can make goalies good.

Right. Again. And they have a great goalie, right? Yes. So I look at this and I think, Man, I think people are underestimating the Winnipeg Jets. Maybe they don't do 110 points. But you have to think that they're over that. And listen, there are plenty of opportunities for guys like... First off, I look at Cole Perfetti, who, as of this recording, has not signed yet. That guy is due for a real breakout. What about Rutger McGro...

Oh.

No. Hey. But Jaeger might get a shot. You never know. I don't think so. Probably not. You probably need another. But you still have El Nino. You don't need a writer. El Nino. I like that player. Nikolai Eelers, Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifly, Gabe Velarde. Mason Appleton can score for you. Iafal is there. There are guys that can put it in the net. It's going to have to be a little bit more by committee, but I just feel like they're not that different.

Here's what's going to be a challenge for them is I don't like their defensive depth, but they were such a good defensive team last year. Oh, new head coach. That style of play is not guaranteed to be there anymore. The backup goalie thing is a question mark. The other thing that just gives me pause with the Jets has nothing to do with the Jets and everything to do with the division that they play in. The Central division has one bad team, in my mind. The Blackhawks are not trying, and in a couple of years, they will be. Minnesota.

According to you. Yeah.

Maybe they're still going to suck.

Minnesota is not good, but they're not awful. They're not right off awful. And if they were to... They had 87 points. If they were to screw around and miss the playoff, it wouldn't be that big of a shock. Utah should hopefully be a little bit better than Arizona because they have a building. The Blues are not guaranteed to be a playoff team. They had over 90 points. And then you get into the frigging avalanche, and the predators are going to take a huge step. And who am I missing up top?Avalanche.

Predator, Stars.Oh.

The stars, for God's sake.Oh.

You were genuinely searching for it.I.

Forgot.i.

Forgot. I forgot.

I thought you were doing a thing.

No, I was literally, I forgot. No, they finished, what was it, second in that division? Yeah. Finishing top two in that division.

Might be a top four. Two years in a row. Might be a So much of it, and people don't want to talk about this because it's a cop-out, but a lot of that comes down to luck.

There's not much between the top four in that division, and a lot of it's going to come down to injuries Good luck.

Sure. But this is a prediction episode, and we can't predict those. We have to talk about where they are. If they're all perfectly healthy and everybody plays 82 games.

I'm trying to be complementary. They were really, really, really good, and I'm about to take them down. I need to I have a good justification for why I think they won't be quite as good, but still pretty firmly a playoff team.

They are the only division in the league last year with 350 game winners. And by the way, the preds had 47. Oh, my God. So it's a good division. Okay, so guys, I want to ask you this. All right, now we have... I'm going to save Jesse for last year. Sure. Because Jesse's got the spiciest take on the Winnipeg Jets, so I want to go... So Steve, I don't like being painted as that. You have the spice. You are the Wolf, Jesse.

He hates them a lot.

Yeah. Jesse actually has a thing against the city of Winnipeg, too. He also had spotty Wi-Fi when he was there.

Jesse McGroady.

I've never been to Winnipeg. I hear it's a little bit...

Jesse McGroady Dubois is what we call them, actually. So let me ask you this. No blue bombers.

Jesse, every free agent. Sorry.

95 and a half points. Steve, are you hammering the over or the under?

I'd hammer the over, but in the division? Fourth.

I actually have the exact same as you. I think they're trading places with the Nashville Predators. This is absolutely a playoff team. Connor Halebuck continues to be my favorite goalie of this era. I love this guy. He's incredible. Listen, even if you lose a little bit off a plus 60 goal differential, and it's plus 50, you're still right in line with a lot of teams that won 48, 49, 50 games. So I'm looking at the Winnipeg Jets, and I'm saying, Hammer the over. I do see a slight regression. 110 points is going to be hard to do. But if they hit 102, who cares? Just do better in the playoffs. Now, Jesse, 95 and a half points. Are you over? Are you under, Jesse Blake?

79. I'm going to say under. Where do you have the finishing in the division? I want to submit the Jesse Blake, Connor Hellebuck, 920 safe percentage challenge.Let's go.I want to call it all year. Let's submit that for the season. Let's follow that. Let's follow a safe percentage. Okay.

If you get it wrong, you got to bring in a bag of apples.

Which is something Got him still. Maybe I'll get a Winnipeg... What's it? The shirtie? I'll get a Hellebuck shirtie or something.Oh, I like that.If he does it. But I have them fifth in the division.

Interesting. I wonder who has their... I think I know who's going to take it in place.

No, you'll never get.

I think I do.

The Leaps.

Chicago.

The Leaps, for sure. The Lefs, you're going to take it. Anyway, that's your Winnipeg Jet 10 Minute Season Preview..