Support for today's show comes from Atteo, the AI CRM. If you've ever used a CRM and thought, why does this feel like a second job? Atteo is worth a look. Atteo is the AI CRM that builds itself. You connect your email and calendar and it pulls in every company, every contact, and every interaction already organized in one place. From there, it keeps itself up to date. It understands your customer calls, adapts to how your business works, and the AI agents take action in the background so you can focus on what matters. If you need an intelligent CRM that scales and grows with your business from day one, that's Atteo. You can go to atteo. Com/pivot, and you'll get 15% off your first year. That's attio. Com/pivot. Support for the show comes from CORE, Coreweave. Everywhere you look, AI is expanding what we thought was possible. At the center of it all is Coreweave. Medical research and diagnosis, education, complex visual effects for movies, science and technology breakthroughs. Coreweave powers AI pioneers around the world with purpose built tech, building what's never been built before. Coreweave is the essential cloud for AI. Ready for anything, ready for AI.
To learn more about how Coreweave powers the world's best AI, go to coreweave. Com/readyforanything.
Support for this show comes from Indeed. If you're looking to hire top-tier talent with expertise in your field, Indeed says they can help. Indeed Sponsored Jobs gives your job the best chance at standing out and grants you access to quality candidates who can drive the results you need. Spend more time interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Less stress, less time, more results, now with Indeed Sponsored Jobs. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves at indeed. Com/voxbusiness. Just go to indeed. Com/voxbusiness right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed. Com/indeed. Com/voxbusiness. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring, do it the right way with Indeed. I use it when I get an ear infec... Every time I get an ear infection or something like that or clean out my ears or a cold or a flu.
That's a little too much information. Tell us about the air cleaning.
Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York magazine in the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.
And I'm Scott Galloway.
Resistant unsubscribed. Why don't you give us an update? Because February is coming to an end. You've had over 20 million views across social media, over 1. 5 million site. This obviously has a lot of momentum. People mention it to me all the time. Your website touts $242 million loss in market cap. Talk a little bit about how it's gone because we have something to announce. But first, give me a little update, and then you can do the big announcement.
The honest truth is I'm struggling because it's taking a lot of time and a lot of effort, and it feels as if the momentum is actually cumulative and building. I've had a lot of different, I don't know, resistance programs reach out and say, What are we going to do in March? Should we meta-March where we focus on one company or focus on OpenAI? How do we keep it going? Because it does feel like it's building momentum, and to just shut it down at the end of the month feels like a loss of effort and momentum. Quite frankly, Cara, and I want your advice, I'm trying to figure out what to do with it going into March.
I think you should hire someone, not part of your team, but really hire someone to really keep it going.
Someone who wears Birkenstocks, lives in Brooklyn.
Yes, a lesbian.
Someone with rich parents, putting them through nonprofit.
Whatever it takes, Scott. Whatever it takes. But I think it's important to have someone- Do you drive a Subaru? No. I'm sorry. My son does.
Your son would be great at this. What's Louis doing?
He's in San Francisco working for- Oh, perfect. No. He is a lesbian. I know. Perfect.
I don't know if you've heard, but I pay really well. You have to put up a lot of dick jokes, but I compensate 50 to 100% above market. True story. The dick jokes and the compensation.
I'll ask him. He does have a job. I will ask him. I will ask him if he wants to help. You know who you want is Alex, but he wouldn't do it. Alex is so like, he would engineer the fuck out of this thing.
He's at Michigan. He's taking organic chemistry and computer science and working out and lifting buildings.
The title that he has for this summer where he's working his advanced manufacturing product integration engineering intern.
That rolls right off the tongue.
I know. I was like, wow.
Can't he just say Pole dancer?
Pole dancer. Advanced manufacturing product integration engineering intern. That is what my second son is doing.
Did I tell you when I was on the college tour with my son, Alex, the first thing, literally the first thing, the first impression we got of Michigan was Alex's fraternity, and we were both just scared.
Scared because he's leaving that for his last year.
The floors were sticky.
Sticky.
I lived in a fraternity, and it brought back. I'm like, Was it this bad?
Yes. It smells like beer, old beer. Oh, yeah.
Bier and semen.
Yeah, I know.
Yeah, it just- Yeah.
He's going to live in an apartment for his senior year. So he's leaving the frat, finally. My little boy is on his way.
Yeah. The house was clearly built 200 years ago. He looked like Gulliver roaming around.
Yeah, it's true. You want to go back. I feel like you want to go back for a party.
Oh, I'm in. Okay. All right. I'm definitely that pathetic guy that shows up at the fraternity party when he's invited.
Yes. No, that's so sad. There was a Seth Rogen movie like that. Anyway, listen, we are going back to the Midwest. We are. Let me just say this is not ending. I think you should hire someone. I think you should keep going. But we are going back to the Midwest. We're not going to Ann Arbor, but Scott and I are coming to Minneapolis. We talked about it on the show, and then we made it so along with our great team here. And you can see us live. We're going to celebrate Resistant Unsubscribed and keep the momentum going. We're going to do a live show at the Pontageous Theater on Sunday, March eighth. We will be there.
A week from Sunday. Minneapolis, here we come. I want to meet Roda from Mary Tyler Moore. That's why I'm going. You know what? I hope she's wearing a raspberry beret. That's right. Get it, Cara? A little local humor there.
Talk about the tickets. They're not available yet, right?
They go on sale. I think by the time that's there is they're on sale. We're going to be donating all proceeds to the Minneapolis Immigration Center, I believe it's called. But we want to do something. I said this, you've been very supportive, and we've decided. I've decided I want my efforts off the fucking keyboard and off my to be a fraction of the virtue signaling and action I claim to want to have. And so I pitched you on this We got this idea and we thought, let's go to Minneapolis. We want to bring some economic activity. We want to salute them. We want to basically say over and over that they fucked with the wrong cowboy when they came to Minneapolis. It's going to be a nice event. You, of course, are totally well connected. We're going to have a bunch of fun and famous surprise guests. We're going to do a live show and basically nod to the incredible Americans known as Minneapolisans.
We love the Minneapolisans. If you jump straight to the website, you can find a link to buy them when the tickets are available. We think they're going to be available on Friday at resistandunsubscribed. Com. We've got a thousand tickets. Again, the money goes straight to charity. We're going to run this show on pivot, too. We'll talk about some current events, but we're going to focus on what's happening here with resist and unsubscribed because we know we have a lot of fans there, and we love Minneapolis. We love what the city has done, and we want to get back in some way. This is one of the many ways because What happened to you was heinous, and at the same time, tech companies have a lot to do with this. Let's be clear. What Scott is doing here is giving... You guys have resisted, and we are going to do our little part in It's a little part compared to what Minneapolis has done. But tech is not the only reason, obviously, but it's played a part in where we are today. We're going to resist and unsubscribe. Everyone's going to unsubscribe. Speaking of unsubscribed, Scott, I unsubscribed from One Medical, which It was an Amazon product.
Did you have the 99 a year or 199 a year?
199 a year.
Were you using it?
A little bit, yeah, absolutely.
I love the service. I just hadn't used it in several years.
Yeah, I use it every time I get an ear infection or something like that or clean out my ears or a cold or a flu.
That's a little too much information. Tell us about the ear cleaning. Tell us about the ear cleaning.
I get a lot of wax in my ears. I've unsubscribed our entire family from it. It's a lot of money.
Just when you thought, Eric, it could be less attractive to a heterosexual.
Yeah. Anyway, I'm doing just fine, by the way. Anyway, we've got a lot to get to today, but March eighth, Minneapolis. Tickets will be on sale soon. Please come. We want a full house, and we're super excited to see you. We got a lot to get to today, so we're going to dig in. First, President Trump delivered the longest State of the Union ever on Tuesday, 1 hour and 48 minutes, where he, of course, said Americans were telling him we're winning too much. Did you watch, Scott?
Thoughts? I was not too late. I watched. I did what I did with almost all media the broadcast on traditional cable. Now, as I watched it in bits and pieces on TikTok and reels the next day, I felt like for Republicans, I felt as if they were attending their ex-wife's wedding when you're still on her health insurance, but she controls the Military. It felt like dear leader in the Duma where they thought, I better stand in a plot or I risk execution. Yeah, totally. I found it, I don't know. Quite frankly, I I thought it was a bit of a nothing burger. I agree. He didn't say a hell of a lot. I thought he came across as quite robust, to be fair.
He came across as robust, but he moved very quickly by the end into very deflated. If you watch the whole thing, he started off real energetic, and then he got mean. He was normal-ish for him, and that's a very low bar. But as the night progressed, he got super mean, calling the Democrats crazy. Then that fucking idiot in the back, JD Vans, was like, he looked like such a dope. He has no right to be President. Sorry, I'm going to... He's just such a dope. The Supreme Court went and Stoneys faced. Every time Trump did something like the Democrats are crazy, the Republicans, as you said, jumped up like a bunch of dancing monkeys, essentially. The Supreme Court sat down. The military looked straight ahead, which was really interesting. Of course, the Democrats sat down and they wanted the Democrats to have photos of the Democrats not agreeing with immigrants shouldn't kill American citizens. They wanted photos like that. I thought it was mendacious. If you look at any of the lie stuff, there's a lot of it. I thought it veered into cruel, as usual. Then the worst part was it was dull. It was actually dull.
That's, to me, the worst part. Of course, the numbers show much less people watch a 28 million versus 36. It doesn't have any staying power. He denied Americans were suffering. That's one of the things which I thought was a mistake.
I thought from From a political standpoint, is it Abby Spanberger? Is that her name?
Yeah, Abigail Spanberger.
Abigail Spanberger.
Governor of Virginia.
I thought her rebuttal was outstanding. I came up with an idea. I want to pitch you, and I'm serious now. I actually called one of our favorite senators, and I said, I have an idea. I think they should hire... If you think about, essentially, the democratic response should turn into what the halftime show is to the Super Bowl, and that is a halftime show had almost no relevance 40 years ago. Now it's bigger than the Super Bowl. I said, Hire Jay Zee's Rock Nation. Fill a stadium with 10,000 rabid Democrats.
Yeah, and then you get all excited.
Music, cool, Cool intro, amazing artists, graphics, visuals, great lighting. Because the problem is the follow-up, whether it's Marco Rubio responding, the response always comes across as flat because it lacks the sex and the Majesty of the rotunda.
Yeah, it needed to be jazzed up. I agree. The lighting wasn't good.
Let's sex it the fuck up. Because if you listen to what she said, if you read her response, it was outstanding.
The lighting was bad. The setting was bad. I agree.
It's just they can't compare. It's like going from the Greek theater to you're watching something on laser disk.
I hated it myself for thinking that, but I'm like, The lighting's bad and the setting is bad. It's not good. It was too far away and it was too close.
When I was renovating a house in the Hamptons, let's bring this back to me, I used to go to the 711, and a bunch of guys would roll up, and I'd say, Okay, I need some guys to do stone statting or something like this. In my general contract, I would just sit in the passenger seat with a bunch of cash. I had no less than 12 or 15 workers at any time in my house doing shit. At night, I'd roll in, and they'd all be in the kitchen with a VCR and a big four pizzas and 24, it was either Modellas or something else, and they'd have this bad black and white TV, and all these guys would just be sitting around watching porn. I remember thinking, this is odd.
This is odd. This story is odd, but go ahead.
This is odd. No, that's it. That's the whole story. Okay.
That's the whole story. Don't Do that, Democrats. Do not have Modela pizzas and porn.
This is what a douchebag I was. I had a Sand Beach volleyball court.
Okay. You're losing the resistant on subscribed people.
I was so optimized for the ladies.
All right. Okay. Hello. You have progressed to a better person, and now you're a lesbian going to Minneapolis. I'd like you to wear Birkenstocks, by the way. I think that would be great. Anyway, it was a nothing burger, and he looked mean. I thought he really got and started doing the blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, at the end.
He didn't say anything. He teased tax cuts, which I was interesting to see, Okay, how are you going to pay for those?
He didn't talk about AI much. He didn't do anything forward.
He didn't really talk about Iran much.
The show is winding down. That's what I thought. It reminded me of the end of The Apprentice. It wound down. It suddenly wasn't interesting. And that's what I thought. It was mendacious and cruel, but that table stakes with him. Doll is what I thought. Hi, everyone. Scott and I just recorded earlier today, but I'm jumping on because a major story just broke. After a long battle, Paramount has won the Warner Brothers Discovery bidding war. At least for now, Netflix has released a statement saying the deal is No longer financially attractive. It never was. It was always nice to have at the right price, not a must have at any price. Paramount had upped its offer to buy all of the company for $31 a share and added all kinds of bells and whistles. Warner determined that offer was superior to Netflix because it was, actually. I'm joined now by Pucks Bill Cohen to break this all down. Bill, you and I have been texting about this for a long time. You thought it would be quick and Paramount would get away. I said this was going to go on, on and on, and it has.
It's really been since December, I think we've been whenever it broke. But talk a little bit about your overarching things, and we'll talk about a few other things.
Oh, look, I think this, Cara, is the outcome that had to happen. Whereas Netflix was saying it was nice to have at the right price. It was getting to be nosebleed territory. Paramount, this is existential. I mean, without this, they're just like an $11 billion company, which once upon a time would be nothing to sneeze at, but now It was a pipsqueak in this landscape. And so they needed Warner Brothers' discovery, all of it, to make what the Ellison's hope... If they hadn't done this, then their original premise for the Paramount deal wouldn't have made much sense, and their equity wouldn't do anything. So this was existential for them. They had to pay up, they had to win. And kudos to David Zaslow for running one of the best M&A processes I've seen in a long time.
For For people who forget, yesterday, I had read that Netflix had to walk away from this because it was just ridiculous. It was an insane price. And Warner was at $10 a share recently, and it popped to 31. Was there $21 of excellence that had been created, not at all, from nothing, right? It's like whip cream or something.
Well, it actually got as low as $7 a share. Yeah, remember? Right. I do remember.
And it was expensive at that.
I was recommending people to buy at that price because I thought they would pay down the debt and make something of it. But ever since September 11th, when Paramount first began to hint that it was interested in buying this and it offered $19 a share, we've gone from 7: 00 to 31: 00. And what? Not because the companies have performed particularly that much better. I mean, they've performed fine, and Warner Brothers had some hit movies. But it's just because of the scarcity value, the fact that he ran an incredible auction process, kept them on both sides on their toes the whole way. And especially this last bit of jiu-jitsu was just beautiful to watch. Yeah.
I said he won the Jeff Bukas Award for turning chicken shit into chicken salad and feeding it to a nepo-billionaire.
Jeff Bukas was the last guy at Warner Brothers to make a fortune selling the company to AT&T, and now Zaz has done it again.
And sold again. So let's break it apart a little bit, because one of the things that had begun to dawn on me, and you and I, I always thought Netflix was the better owner in terms of taking these assets and doing something significant with them. I felt like the purchase, the paramount, is not going to be as good as owner. It's still too small. Instead of a leaking, lumbering media ship, it's a bigger lumbering ship. I don't see how they're going to just because they're slightly larger, be that much better unless they are run by someone who's more experienced. I think David Ellison should get out of the way. I know they have Jeff Schell, very talented, George Cheeks, many others, but they don't have the executive fortitude, I think, to do much with this. Netflix later can come swooping in and take off parts. How do you look at it?
Look, I know they're very excited over at Paramount about winning. I know they're very excited about their business plan and what they think they're going to do with this. They're going to have to combine CBS and CNN. I can only imagine what the feelings are over there. Bad. Probably not great. There's a lot of bloat, probably on the CNN side, that's going to once again, come under the ax. As we've discussed many times, Cara, I think David Ellison has blundered a few times already out of the gate.
Taylor Sheridan, losing that.
That was a big loss.
Bigger than the CVS disasters.
Which are not nothing either. Overpaying for UFC or whatever it is. I think there's They've got a lot to prove, but nevertheless, they've got a lot to prove, but this was existential for them. They had to win. And for Larry Ellison... I mean, if it weren't for Larry Ellison, We wouldn't be here. We wouldn't be talking about this. We wouldn't have this discussion. They would never have been taken seriously. They never could have done the deal. So it's Larry's unbelievable amount of equity that he's willing to step up. It's something like $45 billion of equity, $25 billion from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, and the rest from Larry and Jerry Cardinal at Red Bird Capital, with most of it coming from Larry. I mean, this is an unbelievable amount of equity, an unbelievable amount of debt. It's probably going to be like the largest LBO in history, except they're not taking the company private. It's remaining a publicly traded company.
Let me ask you in that regard, would you compare it to what Elon did at Twitter? I don't know. Someone was like, Well, can't they do what Elon did? Meaning the bankers gave up and he managed to get his money back because he squeezed it into a different company. I don't think they have that choice here. They just have the media company, correct?
Hey, well, if they want to create PAI and create a AI company and everybody go crazy for it and then have the AI company buy the media company and then merge it with SpaceX, okay. You want to go do all those crazy things? Maybe they can pass it off onto somebody else. Maybe Elon will buy it. Elon could buy it out of petty cash.
He could. Why did Larry Ellison do this? Because it seems to me he's a smart customer about a lot of things. This seems like buying a yacht or something. Well, he has a yacht. What am I talking about? But you know what I mean? It seems so unlike him. Perhaps he's old. Perhaps he wants to leave a legacy for his son who likes to make movies. Because from a financial point of view, this is not a Larry Ellison move to me in in my mind.
No, they're going to have 70 plus billion of debt here, Cara. It's a lot of debt. Maybe they have 11 or 12 billion of cash flow. Maybe. It's a lot of debt. They're going to have to make a lot of cuts. They believe they're going to delever quickly. Every buyer who puts together a leverage company thinks they're going to delever quickly. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Maybe Netflix will get another chance at this when the thing flounders. But why did Larry do this? I think it's edible. I think he wanted to do this for his son, and he started down the path to do it. It went from 19 was their first bid to 31. I think he felt like his ego was involved. If he didn't do it, he'd have egg on his face thing. He's got now Trump expecting him to change the dynamic of the two companies in terms of the politics. I think he felt like he had to do it. And once he started it, he basically caved and gave Zaz everything he wanted, every little detail.
Correct, which is so unlike L'Ariel. I was like, What a chump. I never called L'Ariel a center chump before, but I feel that Zaslow read circles around them.
Yeah, he got into deal heat and gave Zaslow everything he wanted. I mean, they're happy over there.
Yeah, I know because they're pumping fist. But honestly, I was like, Oh, dear. Oh, dear. That's what I kept thinking.
There's going to be a hangover for this. There's definitely going to be a hangover.
Two more questions. You mentioned Trump. One of the things that everyone's worried about, of course, is Larry Ellison owning TikTok. He does an Oracle on 15% of TikTok, which isn't a huge amount. It's a significant amount, but it's not the most amount. And owning CBS, which I think was a falling knife. I'm not really clear where everyone's... They're obsessed with it because it's a good story. But it's not a... I would say, we just did an analysis of Pivot, and we have more people in the demo advertising. All of these companies do all these cable companies. It's the news organization, and CNN has been declining. Let's be clear, the numbers have been declining. All of cable has, not just CNN. Do you think it's a political thing or what? Also, lastly, Trump's running out of time. Trump is absolutely running out of time. So address the political issue. Then secondly, the regulatory issue could still get very ugly with Democrats attacking this if they get back in control of the legislature, correct? Presumably.
Well, let's take the regulatory first. They made a big deal of them getting through Hartz Scott-Rodino, which meant- Which is a little deal. That there wasn't going to be deep dive into this by the DOJ, although they could still come back and take another look at this now that it's a a different deal, a new deal. They could. They probably won't, but they could. They got the EU. They were definitely working the EU. David and Jerry Cardinal were over there working the EU. They think they're in good shape with the EU. So they think between the DOJ, the EU, and Trump being on their side because he's going to give them the political his format that he wants and be supportive of him, which whatever. It's ridiculous if you ask me, but they think they've got the regulatory situation in hand. Politicians make a lot of noise about these mergers, but they have no say in the approval of them. So even if the Democrats take the House in November, I'm not sure what... This could very well be over by then. They put in this so-called ticking fee. If it's not over by the end of September, which is obviously before the elections, they're going to owe Warner Brothers shareholders another 50 cents a share of $650 million.
So the impetus is to do something quick, to get it quickly done. Some things they can't control, but they obviously are highly confident, Cara, they're going to get this the regulators, and they'll give Trump what he wants. I'm not sure the Democrats, even if they take the House, can do anything about what CBS and CNN broadcast.
At all.
It's up to the SEC, and that's still in Trump's pocket. It, and Trump blithering away, asking for them to give him favors and bend the knee.
Or get rid of Jake Tapper, whoever they want, whoever he's mad at at the moment.
That might be part of it, yes.
When you think about where Netflix goes from here, I think it was the smartest move. The smartest move, the stock is going to soar. They have plenty of money to do things. They're so innovative. They're such great operators, right? It's not a bad thing. They could do a distribution deal for some of this content and then later just wait until the knife falls, right? Presumably Really? What would you do if you were Ted... I thought this is exactly what he was going to do. Right.
And this is what I wrote that exactly he should do yesterday. And then I don't know whether he reads it or listens to me or whatever, but he did exactly the right thing. He looked smart. The stock is going to move up after moving down like 30 %. He takes his $2. 8 billion breakup fee and builds out his new movie studio in New Jersey and gets content deals and looks smart and disciplined, and that's what investors like.
Looks like the good guy. He does.
To Hollywood. He looks like the good guy, and he can move on from this. It was going to be a headache for him if he got this. Sometimes the smartest thing you can do in a deal, Cara, is to walk away, and he did the smartest thing. So he's going to get plottets all around. He could read the tea leaves. It was going to be a regulatory nightmare for him to get this through. Trump was not going to make it easy for him. He already bloviated about firing Susan Rice, and Ted didn't do it. And so who knows what was going to be in store for Ted. But he did the smart thing here.
So very last question. When you think about what happens next for consolidation, it's obviously Comcast is going to be like, What do we do? Disney's got to go, What do we do? Netflix looks like it's willing to play, at least, because it wasn't in a choir, very much like Apple. But it is. They're very opportunistic now. Now they've never done this before. Now they know, right? They've worked on a big deal. What do you What would be next if you could make a prediction?
Well, I mean, it's quite... A lot of people have been thinking that Comcast would spin off NBCU and maybe Netflix and NBCU get together. But I don't really think Netflix needs to do any of that. I don't either. Now they got a little taste of it. Maybe they thought, Well, they walked around the Warner Brothers lot. That was fun. Now, I guess maybe they could walk around the Universal lot. They're building their own lot. I'm not sure they need to do it, but if they want to do it, I think there would be opportunities. There's Amazon Prime. I'm not going to do anything with Disney, I don't think. But NBC, there are some smaller studios they could get get their hands on, AMC and things like that. I don't really see that they have to. I think Ted had fun here. He showed his metal. He showed he can be a dealmaker. He got a merger agreement, and he showed himself to be disciplined. He comes out, he's the big winner in all this. Him and Zaz, of course. Zaz is the $600 million winner.
I swear this guy. This guy, Mr. Discovery. Mr. Diner's Drive-ins.
He ran the M&A deal of the century.
I got to give it to him. I got to give it to him. He's a thing of beauty. I always run him down when I see him. I joke with him. I say he looks like a lesbian. But I have to say he did a great job here for his shareholders, right? I mean, literally seven dollars. Absolutely. 7 to 31. Amazing. Amazing deal. Good luck, Ellison. Good luck on catching the car. Good luck. We'll wait for the sequel. All right. The other winner here is you. You've done an amazing job in covering this, and I like debating with you. It's really helpful because it's smart and it's clear, and you're non-romantic about any of this. Anyway, I appreciate it. Go to Puck to check out Bill Cohen's reporting, and we'll take a quick break, and Scott and I will be back with NVIDIA's earnings. Support for the show comes from Indeed. Hiring isn't just about finding someone willing to take the job. It's about connecting with someone who can move your business forward. For that, check out Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Indeed Sponsored Jobs boosts your job post for quality candidates so you can reach people that can help your business thrive.
People are finding quality hires on Indeed right now as we speak. In the minute I've been talking to you, 27 hires were made on Indeed, according to Indeed data worldwide. Join the 3. 3 million employers worldwide that use Indeed to connect with quality talent that fits their needs. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Less stress, less time, more results now with Indeed Sponsored And listeners to this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves at indeed. Com/pivot. Just go to indeed. Com/pivot right now and support our show by saying you heard about it indeed on this podcast, indeed. Com/pivot. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring, do the right way with Indeed. Support for this show comes from Rubric. A lot of companies are deploying AI agents now. They're automating tasks, handling workflows, and making decisions. But here's the thing, sometimes they mess up. What a surprise. They might delete the wrong files, make changes you didn't authorize, or just go off script. When that happens, you're stuck trying to figure out what went wrong and how to fix it unless you're using Rubric Agent Cloud.
Rubric Agent Cloud is a platform that allows you to monitor, govern, and rewind AI agent actions, one platform to help you unleash more agents faster without the risk. It's running in the background the whole time watching what's happening marketing, making sure things stay on track. So you get full visibility, set garreels so agents don't go rogue, and if something breaks, you just roll it back. If your business relies on AI agents, you need the ability to monitor, govern, and rewind their actions. Right now, our listeners get exclusive early access to Rubrik Agent Cloud, head to rubrik. Com. That's rubrik. Com. Rubrik. Com. This is advertiser content brought to by Stonyfield Organic. Our cows, them going out to pasture, they love it. They're so excited to go out. Every day, they wait right at the door. In fact, we milk them and we just open up the laneway and let them just go right out to pasture. I'm Rhonda Miller Goodrich, and I'm a dairy farmer in Cabot, Vermont. Our farm is Mollebrooke Farm. We're an organic dairy farm, and we are a supplier to Stonyfield. Mollebrooke Farm has been in my husband's family since 1935.
We started our organic transition in 2015. We had 53 acres of corn ground, and of course, we had to use herbicides and pesticides, and the soil was dead, really, for all intents purposes. We stopped growing corn and stopped using herbicides and pesticides, and we seeded that down to perennial grasses. After that, we began to see biodiversity in that soil again. To be organic certified, our cows need to be in pasture at least 120 days. I think the organic practices really benefit our animals. Having good feed, good water, a nice light area, that's what's important to us, and that's what's important to Stonyfield. Visit stonyfield. Com to find Stonyfield Organic Yogurt near you. Scott, we're back with more news. Nvidia reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings, with a profit hitting 120 billion. Only a handful of other companies, including Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple, have made over $100 billion in profit in a year. Net income for the company doubled to $43 billion. Revenue in the data center business rose 75%. Talk about that, because Wall Street was also rattled this a week by a viral memo from market analysis firm, Cittrini Research, very good research group.
The memo laid out a scenario where the AI systems trigger mass white-collar layoffs, push unemployment above 10%, and ultimately lead to a stock market crash. Cittrini said the post was designed to prepare investors for potential left tail risks as AI makes the economy increasingly weird, stressing that it's a scenario, not a prediction. Even so, the S&P dropped 1% on Monday, though some of it was concerns about tariffs. But companies specifically named in the memo included Uber, DoorDash, American Express, IBM all saw steep declines. It was an interesting memo, and I thought it was a thought experience. The markets were already rattled by Blue Owl Capital. A major private credit lender announced its halting of quarterly redemption for one of its funds in selling $1. 4 billion in loan ads as the company's stock fell. We'll get to that in a second. I'll talk a little bit more, but stick with the first with the Cittrini and the NVIDIA earnings.
Well, I'll talk about NVIDIA before I talk about Cittrini. Revenue, 68 billion versus 66 expected, up 73% year-on-year, up 20% quarter-on-quarter. Non-gap earnings, buck 62 versus a dollar 53, up 82% year-on-year. Data center revenue, 62 billion, up 75% year-on-year. Their gross margins, 75%. Their fiscal 2026 revenues. Their fiscal 2026 revenues.
Margins were crazy.
16 billion, up 65%. I think that may be more revenue than every streaming media company and movie studio combined. Since the launch of ChatGPT, NVIDIA has grown its data center business roughly 13-fold. This quarter marked the best revenue growth rate of the entire fiscal year. It's revenue growth on the law of big numbers. It seems to be more like network effects. It keeps getting better. It's scaling. Q4, 73% year-on-year growth, beat Q3 at 62, Q2 at 56, 6 and Q1. As they get bigger, they're growing faster. They're literally defying gravity. Notably, they're leaving out China from its future guidance, according to the CFO, while small amounts of H 200 products for China-based customers who are approved by the US government, we have yet to generate any revenue, and we do not know whether any imports will be allowed into China. China was previously 20, almost a quarter of NVIDIA's data center revenue, but that's now gone. It doesn't seem to have hurt them. The thing The thing is, it's still not expensive. It trades at roughly 24 times forward earnings, which is only slightly higher than the S&P. You have a company that's, I'm arguing, the most dominant company in history at that moment is trading what the S&P is trading at.
Because of the fears around AI, and maybe because of the stock acceleration, it's only up. It's basically flat. It's up 4% this year. Yeah, it was. I noticed that flat. Then you have all these companies announcing they're spending two-thirds or three quarters of a trillion dollars CapEx this year. Most of it, or a lot of it is going to NVIDIA. Alphabet is flat. Amazon is down 7% year to date. Meta is flat. Microsoft is down 15% year to date. But big tech is getting punished for spending money, and NVIDIA is getting punished for collecting it. Nvidia is on the right side of that CapEx. So one of those must be wrong. Either these companies are making good investments or I guess maybe the thesis is they're overspending and it'll slow down. Should we talk about Satrini?
Yeah, Satrini was interesting. There was the other one a couple of weeks ago that was another thing like, Everything's going to change, that one, Schumer, Matt Schumer, whatever his name is. There's been a couple of these that have actually had real impact as they've been written. Because they're thought experiments in many ways, but they are interesting. But go ahead, Satrini.
Well, essentially, I would describe it as an A+ creative a riding project from a super bright high school student. It's written in the past tense. It says, Okay, this is how we hit this massive recession and the market lost a third of its value. I think it's a really interesting thought experiment. What they're essentially saying is that AI is going to create this negative feedback loop where it makes white collar workers so much more productive so quickly that companies can do layoffs and hire fewer workers, which results in an employment spike, less consumer spending. Because companies fall under revenue pressure, they're forced to cut costs. How do they cut costs? More AI, and it creates this downward doom loop. Now, you can make the same argument for any technology. At one point, 90% of us working in agriculture, now it's less than 2%, but that happened over 200 years. These guys are saying this is going to happen over 24 months. What's happened is it's really cut. Obviously, we talked about last week, it's gone after the SaaS companies, the software companies who they believe you will be able to replace Adobe, Figma, or Salesforce just with thoughtful internal prompts.
It's really well written, and it's got great branding. They coined the term Ghost GDP, and that is economic output can grow while the benefits of that growth never actually reach most people. The other surprising victims here, and this will come back to my prediction, is a lot of publicly traded PE or private credit companies, whether it's Apollo or TPG or Blackstone, their stocks are down 20, 30% because they own a lot of software companies. There's a fear that as private credit lenders, basically, they act like banks to companies who are nontraditional borrowers. That a lot of those companies might not be able to make good on the money they've borrowed.
Let me just throw in some stats for this. You're talking about Blue Owl, which is a major private credit lender. The company's stock fell 10% on the news last week because of these sell-offs. Shares are 52-week low. The sell-off did then rippled across the whole private credit sector, which probably wasn't fair. Apollo, Aries, Blackstone, and others sliding. Blue Owl said it is not halting investor liquidity. It's accelerating the return of capital. I love how they do that. Mohamed El Erian, former CEO of PIMCO, suggested this could be a canary in a coal mine moment, comparing it to the early warning signs for the 2008 financial crisis. This is all linked together, this idea of worries worry for all of these things, especially private credit lenders. Some are not as concerned, some are more concerned. We've got a lot of letters from people saying, What should they be concerned and what's going on here? But as you're noting, they're linked, correct? All this is linked to this spending, this massive spending by the tech companies.
The way I would try and describe the dynamic here and to understand if you're at risk and where you want to think about investing your own human capital, your own financial capital is the following. My mom Mom used to run the secretarial poll at Southwestern University School of Law in downtown Los Angeles, where I actually worked in the mail room in high school. She oversaw 20 secretaries who would write up the exams and the legal research of all the professors. That's gone. Word processing has taken that away. At the same time, my mom then became an executive assistant because she has good EQ and she's smart and reliable and can write well. If you look at truckers, AI will be a substitute for truckers. Truck drivers via autonomous are in real trouble. At the same time, accountants, you're going to see a lot of their rote accounting work go away, but there are now more accountants than ever because they move upstream into things like tax, wealth planning, and estate planning. The question is- Which presumably AI eventually be able to help you with that.
I call my accountant, Mamie, who's amazing all the time for little and big big things. Presumably, at some day, I won't be talking to anybody, but it seems very artisanal on my part. It seems like a lot of work by Kairos. It's like pumping gas. I like having- That's the right example.
I used a lot of lawyers. I used to send every agreement I did, advertising contract, whatever it was, a employment contract I sent to our lawyers. They charged me $1,000, $2,000, $3,000 to have an associate review it. Now I say to our chief growth officer, No, use AI, review it, and you do it. I trust you more than with AI, you are smart as a low-level lawyer. At the same time, I'm spending dramatically more on a very talented lawyer at a firm that's actually called Citrin on this incredibly smart woman named Lucy Lee, who figures out everything from immigration to tax strategies to my estate plan, because that shit is complicated.
Because you want her to be using AI for on your behalf, right? Because presumably she's also using it as a- Yeah, but she can call me and say, Scott, have you thought about turning this company into an S-Course so you can, in five years, qualify for 1202?
She's incredibly strategic and smart and charges 1,500 bucks an hour. The bottom line is wherever you are in the world, do you have an opportunity to use AI to go upstream, or is AI basically going to take everything you're doing and you have nowhere to go upstream? But the story of technology disruption is the same, and I don't think it's any different here. That is, it will take out the boring rote work, and you either take that additional margin and go upstream and invent new jobs, new higher paying jobs, or you get outsourced. The V here or the correction might be more severe. America is bad at taking care of those people. Again, we spend 0. 2% on retraining. Denmark spends 2% of GDP on retraining.
We also don't do it well when we try to do it. It doesn't quite work right.
But look at what we're in the business. I would have thought, for example, I've been writing books, and I thought in my latest book, I'm starting my newest book. I thought, Oh, AI is going to play a huge role. It plays a role in research, in improving, and in fact-checking, but the writing is still- Yeah, I agree.
I've been trying to make it. Fetch is not happening for me in AI and writing.
It's not. It just isn't. But even look at our business, I would have thought, okay, AI can produce the scripts. Ai could edit. It really can't. It doesn't. We're hiring, I know you are, at Property Media, we're hiring more people. We use AI, what we might do, we might launch two podcasts instead of one because AI will help us produce more data sets that we can talk about.
We've got to figure out. One of the things I was talking about this morning, we got to figure out how to make Fetch happen with it. That's a slower process, as you know. One of the things someone was like, Oh, is it all going to be over? I'm like, Imagine at 2000, I went to see a Hollywood executive, big name, and when the thing crashed happened, he goes, I'm glad that's over. I'm like, What? You have no idea what's coming, right? I think it doesn't mean that all of them are going to survive, but several will, and it is a significant change. The question is, was it fair for Apollo to get dragged down in this Blue Owl thing? Probably not, but that's how Wall Street react. That's the opportunity. You may see an enormous decline in NVIDIA or any of these tech companies, but are they really going away? Is this really going to decimate them? What it's going to do is have every company refigure where this cost structure is. That's what it's doing. You're going, do I need all these lower-level lawyers? That is a significant problem. One of the things that it creates is if we throw all these people out of work, they're going to be mad.
There's all kinds of social issues there and political issues. The question is, what do we do about it? That's hard because we've tried retraining, and it hasn't always worked. We spent a lot of money on retraining. It can get sucked up into political bullshit, which is, let's give everybody jobs. Then other times it works, like during the Depression. We have wonderful things that they did during- High-speed rail up the West and Eastern Seaboard.
There's a lot of infrastructure. But look, both Andrew Rostork and Josh Brown, who I've had on property markets a lot, said something that really impacted the way I process and how I approach markets, and it's the following, and they're right. The optimists have beaten the shit out of the pessimists. The key question you got to ask yourself in something like this with respect to the markets is ask yourself, what could go right? Because there's a temptation by academics and thought leaders to catastrophize because you sound- That's what you should do. Well, you It sounds smarter when you catastrophize. It sounds scarier and more interesting, and you put some bar charts around you talking about the zombie Apocalypse and a downward spiral doom loop. Well, okay, the doom loop around moving from agricultural to manufacturing to service, it wasn't a doom loop, it was a job creator. Let's talk about what could go right here. This is from a guy named, I think his name is Zvi Moshevitz in open quote. Actually, this scenario does involve massive job creation. Start Starting a new business, creating a new product, or providing a service is now a turnkey thing you can launch with an agent.
All sorts of barriers and costs involved are gone. Marketing costs drop almost to zero because their agent fines you. Logistic costs are almost zero. Transaction costs are almost zero. Wages for anyone you hire are down and their productivity is way up. The cost of living is way down, which creates more margin, more opportunities for new businesses. I've been struck. When I got a business school in 1992, there were two people that started a business, and the other was my business partner. There was only two of us. Now, I would bet a third of the grads from Stern are going to try and start some AI company.
Same thing with the media people. I started off having to work for a big firm. I don't need to. Anyway, we have to move on. But we should keep this discussion going. It's very important because I think you're right. It's easy to catastrophize, and you should be thinking about those things. It's just a question of what's the other side of that? What's Where are the opportunities? Just like we were talking about with Netflix. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about Pete Hegset, Threatening Anthropic.
Support for this show comes from Odoo. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?
Introducing Odoo.
It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.
Crm, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part, Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo. Com. That's odoo. Com. Support for this show comes from Coreweave. Everywhere you look, AI is expanding what we thought was possible. Possible. And at the center of it all is Coreweave. Medical research and diagnosis, education, complex visual effects for movies, science and technology breakthroughs. Coreweave powers AI pioneers around the world with purpose-built tech, building what's never been built before. Coreweave is the essential cloud for AI.
Ready for anything, ready for AI. To learn more about how Coreweave powers the world's best AI, go to coreweave.
Com/readyforanything. Scott, we're back. Anthropic has rejected the Pentagon's demands for unfettered access to clot as we thought they might. Defense Secretary, Pete Hegset, had given the company a deadline to roll back certain safeguards or risk losing a $200 million Pentagon contract. Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodi, said in a blog post that the, threats do not change our position and that the company cannot, in good conscience, accede to the request. Good for you, Dario. Not to accede to a moron. On the other hand, the AI company that's been all about safety is dropping It's core safety pledge, too. It announced this week that it won't stop training potentially dangerous AI models if a competitor releases something pairable or more advanced. They're doing other things, but they say the move reflects the speed of AI progress and the lack of federal regulation, not a political pressure.
Thoughts? The best performing organization in history is the US military. At close second, is the US Corporation. It's created more wealth. In the last 17 years, US corporations have created more shareholder value than of Europe since probably the '60s. One company, NVIDIA, is worth more than every publicly traded company in Germany and Spain. Now, why is that? One, we have incredible research universities, we have a very risk progressive culture, and we have the deepest pools of capital in the world. We have $5 million per startup versus $1 million per startup in Europe. Why do we have such deep pools of capital? Because when people invest here, they know the rules that that company will have to play by. When governments start interfering and picking winners and losers and saying, Oh, the rules have changed, you're going to have an absence or a flight of capital, which, by the way, has happened. This bullshit sclerotic blood sugar level Socialism, where the government is deciding who should get to acquire Warner Brothers, or that we should own a share, a golden share in a steel company, or which microchip companies the governments can invest in because a failed casino owner and talk show or reality show host seems to believe he understands business better than the private sector.
This isn't a theoretical lesson in why I hate Trump, reflecting my biases. This has already happened. They point to, over the last year, the S&P is up 14%, but it's not. On a dollar-adjusted basis, the dollar has weakened so much. It's more up mid-single digits. And by the way- Europe is up more, as you know. Every A single major market, from South Korea to Germany, to the Futsi, to the Kospi in South Korea, has massively outperformed the S&P. And one of the reasons is, when you now invest in a US company, there's unnecessary risk from the government if you, for whatever reason, the Pentagon decides that we don't like you. And guess what? Andural and Palantir are working very closely with the government to help them track down spies, to maybe even track down immigrants using social media. A lot of people would say that's a violation of privacy rights. A lot of people don't want to work for a weapons company. Well, guess what? I love your saying. You don't like Chick-fil A, you don't have to eat a Chick-fil A. Maybe you don't work there, maybe you don't invest there. But guess what?
They get to do what they want. Regulated competition, and you get to decide what business you're or not in, just as Anthropic might decide that we are not comfortable working and providing data and computing power to help surveil US citizens. They get to make that decision.
That's right. They To make... By the way, I think they'll do better. Everyone's like, Oh, they're going to get like, blacklist. I'm like, I think this is good for them.
It might be good branding.
It might be good branding. By the way, that they can do what they want and decide what they want to do on everything. Then you, the consumer, as we know, decide what you want to do. One of the things that, Hicke says this always, he's either doing pull-ups or this nonsense. Another person never run a successful business, just so you know. A lot of these people in the Trump administration never run a successful business. Including the President himself, really has driven so many businesses into the ground. Let Dario Modi do what he wants, but to threaten him- It's called the private regulated competition, and everyone gets to and has to play by the same Elon will take it for you. Just go to Elon. By the way, the reason why it's a problem is because most of the people in the Defense Department think Claude is better, right? That's the issue. They don't want to give their better product to do what they want. This, to me, is ridiculous. And by the way, on the safety thing, you know all these people are going to do whatever it takes, and they may be more safe, Anthropic, but they will do whatever it takes to compete, right?
Correct? Look, I think the reality is, and this is the danger, and this has been one of my core thesis all along, is that we have fallen under the assumption that every breakthrough in technology results in a small number of companies that are able to ring-fence distribution capital or IP and create trillions of dollars for their shareholders. I wonder if AI is more like jet manufacturers or vaccines, and that is it will be an enormous innovation that will change society for the better, I'd like to think. But there aren't going to be a small number of companies that capture a ton of value, that the real winners will be stakeholders, but those stakeholders will be citizens medicines. I think we have massively benefited from vaccines. Moderna is now down 90%. There's no one company that's made hundreds of billions of dollars from vaccines. If you added up all of the profits and losses of all airlines and Boeing and Amber and Air bus, it's barely even a break even. And yet skirting along the atmosphere at seven-tenths of the speed of sound is, in my view, for my life, the greatest breakthrough in history. Now, my general impression is people ask me all the time, Which LLM do you like?
I have favorites But it only lasts for two weeks. I think AI is putting AI out of business. And that is, if you look at the data, they're all getting to technical parity. It is so hard to maintain.
Jan LeCun said this exactly. He says they're all the same. They're commodities.
I use both ChatGPT and Claude. Then for 72 hours, I'll be like, Oh, ChatGPT is better. It's less politically correct. Then I go, Wait, Claude is better at editing. Then I go back and forth. Here's the thing, AI is reverse engineering every other LLM. It's going to be about things like UI. It's going to be margin compression. I wonder if we're going to be the big winners. And services. These companies are going to spend a massive amount of capital. I know.
I agree. We're getting a lot of free. We're getting a lot of free. 100%. All right, we do have to move on. We'll see what happens here, but Keith Hggs says you're a moron. Okay, this is a story I just want to say again. I knew this had legs. Dozens of FBI witness interview summaries appear to be missing from the DOJ's latest Epstein files released. Some of those are missing interviews that are tied to a woman who accused Donald Trump of sexually assaulting her decades ago. The DOJ said in a statement that the only materials we have been withheld were either privileged or duplicates. This is nonsense. Democrats in the House Oversight Committee are now investigating whether the DOJ purposely withheld materials. The New York Times followed this. So did NPR broke it, and an independent journalist broke it. The New York Times has followed. This is really a bad cover up. What they've done here is kept... They should just put it out there or or investigate Donald Trump, one of the others. He's certainly not exonerated. By the way, other people are taking a lot of fallout from Epstein this week. This is not stopping folks.
It's not over until it's over. Bill Gates apologized the Gates Foundation for his ties to Epstein and also two affairs he had. He talked about them publicly, finally. He kept stressing they were older, just old enough, at least. Larry Somers is resigning from Harvard over his Epstein connection. The World Economic Forum President is also resigning. Peter Mendelsohn, former UK ambassador of the US, was arrested over allegations that he shared confidential government information. The former Norwegian, I think, Prime Minister was hospitalized with suspicion of suicide over it. There's a Columbia professor who's a very prominent neurologist Just I think all these people are paying the price, let's just say, either related or nearby. Trump obviously didn't say anything in the Epstein files, as likesy state of the Union. I don't think he can ignore this. I think this is not going away. It is chasing him, and it will not happen until they do, as you say, they have to deal with the perpetrators. If he is one of them, he has the right to be investigated, and he should be investigated. So should all of these people. There's still going to be repercussions for everybody in this world.
There just is, whether your judgment was bad or whatever.
You know how I feel about this, and it's an unpopular take. I don't think the file should have been released. I think the agency that aggregated the information should have reviewed it with the help of outside litigation counsel, and they should have communicated in one way to the general public, and that is with grand jury indictments and announcement that- This administration wasn't going to do that because their own president was- And so what have they done? They've created weapons of mass distraction.
I don't know. I think there's repercussions here. I'm going to go the different way.
Because you're focused on it. The reality is the following. There appears to be enough evidence that warrant an investigation by... And again, to To your point, unfortunately, we don't have the institutions to do this correctly, but the way this should play out is the following. The attorney general should be announcing or the Department of Justice that they are forming a special counsel because there are credible accusations of rape against several people, including the President of the United States, and all this other bullshit. Larry Sumner sending stupid fucking emails because he's pathetic to Jeffrey Epstein. I think that's a distraction, Cara.
Again, I know. I know you do. I don't. I think it shows about judgment, and we can decide who we want to affiliate with. I think it's fine to do both.
Okay. If I had AI go through every one of your text and emails, I couldn't reflect you as having poor judgment.
Not to the extent of what... Look, Jeffrey Epstein is a unique figure here. You know that, and he represents something bigger, which is- Did they commit crimes? I get it, but our whole world- I'm going after everyone that hasn't committed a crime because America loves to shame people.
We are losing focus on the people who raped children.
Yeah, but All kinds of people got in trouble because of shaming things, and some people got in trouble because of whatever. We have a history of this. Actors, back in the '50s, lost their jobs.
But that's fine. But that wasn't the FBI. I investigated going on a fishing expedition for real crimes and then shaming. Neither is this. This is what's going to happen. This is TMZ's wet dream. Unfortunately, we're not creating the incentive such that if you're a single mother and your daughter ends up on an island, that there's less chance she'll be raped.
We're not protecting We're not protecting children and women here. We're not protecting women and children. You're absolutely right. I think it's hard of a hole.
Instead, every celebrity is just going to start using Signal now.
No, I don't know. I don't know about that. I think it is linked to the feeling that the rich have no impunity, which you talk about. That's part of a trend. It's okay to have these other things, but they should do... I've said special counsel over and over again, but they were forced into it by Thomas Massey and Roe-Kana because they wouldn't do their job. They didn't do their job because they're under the thumb of Donald Trump. If they're not going to do their job, this is the only way.
I get it, but this is what's happened, unfortunately, because our institutions no longer have any independence or credibility. They have released nude photos of underage girls. They have doxed them, listed their names and their addresses without their permission, and redacted and confused information around the actual people who have evidence that they're pedophiles. Yes.
I mean, this just couldn't be- But they're not getting away with it. As you can see, they got caught here doing it.
See, I disagree. I think they're mostly getting away with it. I think the wrong people are being prosecuted and shamed and voted off the island, and the criminals are loving it because there's a ton of confusion. I think they're Fusion and distraction.
I think they're going to get the criminals.
The one thing, and you'll agree with this, I was thinking about it the other day, is if we ask the general public to name five billionaires, I think three of them would be... The first one would probably be Elon Musk. The second would probably be Jeff Beza. See, I think it would be Bill Gates. Bill Gates, yeah. He was the original billionaire. Then the third would be the President, who calls himself the Billionaire President. I bet those three would be three of the first five that people said, who are billionaires? They're all in the fucking Epstein files. Anyways, my point is, you can understand that the public has decided that once you get to a certain point of wealth, you engage in a level of depravity and feel that, again, I love this saying, you're protected by the law, but not bound by it, versus the rest of us are bound by the law, but not protected by it. You can see that there is a real populist uprising here. But I Again, I think the Department of Justice is there to serve justice.
It's not this Department of Justice. If there was any other Department of Justice, you might expect a little bit of decency. This is the only way.
You know we should have, and I was going to do this, but maybe we do it on pivot. I wanted to get Prieber on to talk about the process of document collection, investigation collection, and then how that information is properly disseminated to the public and in what format, because that's what we're talking about here.
You're right. It gets prurient, but at the same time, it's the only way given Pam Bondi's the most another moron.
Yeah, but, Cara, the DAO is at $50,000.
$50,000. She'll never live that one down. Anyway, let's take a quick break, and we'll be for predictions. Hey, Kara Swischer here. I want to let you know that Vox Media is returning to South by Southwest in Austin for live tapings of your favorite podcast. Join us from March 13th through the 15th for live tapings of Today Explained, Teffy Talks, Profit G-Markets, and of course, your two favorite podcasts, Pivot and On with Kara Swischer. The stage will also feature sessions from Brené Brown and Adam Grant, Marques Brownly, Keith Lee, Vivian Two, and Robin Arzon. It's all part of the VoxMedia podcast stage at South by Southwest, presented by Odoo. Visit voxmedia. Com/sxsw to preregister and get your special discount on your innovation badge. That's voxmedia. Com/sxsw to register. Really, you should register. We sell out and we hope to see you there.
In the wake of the release of millions of documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein case, the rich and famous are finally feeling some pain. But even with corporate resignations here and with former Prince Andrew being arrested in the UK, the question remains, how did Jeffrey Epstein remain a thriving member of the elite for decades when everyone seemed to know what he was up to?
I don't think you could be friends with Jeffrey Epstein, whose MO was obviously having sex with young girls, even as Trump said, on the younger side and not know his MO.
Untangling the Epstein Conspiracy. That's this week on Today Explained, every weekday and now on Saturdays. What are the main takeaways of the foreign policy section from Donald Trump's State of the Union address?
I do think they've made a decision to elevate domestic issues as we head towards the midterms.
We'll see if that sticks because he keeps getting drawn back to the foreign I'll see issues. I'm John Feiner.
And I'm Jake Sullivan. And we're the hosts of The Long Game, a weekly national security podcast.
This week, we'll react to President Trump's State of the Union Address, the situation with Iran, and the eruption of violence involving cartels in Mexico The episode is out now. Search for and follow The Long Game wherever you get your podcasts.
Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction.
I just like to I wrap my predictions on what I'm doing personally in terms of my own finances. This is not financial advice. I'm just telling what I'm doing. I think that just as SaaS companies have been oversold, some of these PE, or what they call business development or private credit companies have been oversold. Just some of the ones, again, I'm going to create a basket because I'm about diversification at this point. But for example, Apollo, which has taken a huge hit, is trading at 14 to 17 times earnings. A company with double-digit earnings growth and double-digit assets under management growth, which is the capital they deploy and how they make money. The S&P is trading at a P of 20, and Apollo is trading at 14 to 17 times. Tpg is trading at about a one-third discount to fair value estimates. It's got unbelievable fundraising, and it's expanding their fee earnings. Again, the price reflects pessimism more than growth trajectory. By the way, there's absolutely no evidence other than creative writing that any of these companies are experiencing. I work or co-invest with some of these companies. They're fucking juggernots. They're raising more money than ever.
But it's public feeling about it, investor nervous. Sentiment.
Yes. There's narrative in their numbers, and I believe over the medium and long term, the numbers went out. It's an opportunity.
It's an opportunity is what it is.
These companies have shed between 20 and 40% of their value in the last 12 months while continuing to grow their AUM and their fees. Blue Owl, it's got a 7% to 8% 10% dividend yield because of market discounting private credit fears. There's a growth versus valuation, in my view, mismatch in that all of these companies are growing their assets under management and their fees, which is what essentially is their revenues. The sector has had multiple contraction or compression due to private credit liquidity fears because of some of these creative writing projects. In my view, the market is pricing risk more aggressively current earnings trends justify. That's my thesis. I'll just wrap it up. My one-line thesis is the following: Compress multiples in durable fee growth plus strong fundraising I know these companies, they're really well run. In my view, all adds up to potential relative undervaluation versus the broader market.
All right. I like it. It's the same thing you were talking about last week. Okay, look for opportunities, including you, Netflix. Just I'm sure you know, next week, we'll be talking about Hillary Clinton's testifying about Epstein. Anyway, we'll be talking about that. But I want to actually get our listeners to write us in, give their own prediction. Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez have been named honorary chairs of the Year's Met Gala. They essentially are paying for it, and that's how that happened. The dress code is fashion is art. I want to know what you think Lauren and Jeff will dress up as. What art thing will they dress up as?
There's only two things I'm certain about their war Europe.
Boobs?
100%. Whatever she's wearing, she's not wearing an outfit her breasts are, and I'm here for it. I think she's a beautiful woman, and how about it? But let me be clear- Let's be fair.
He's been improving his boobs, too.
But go ahead. Let's be clear. Vogue and Condenaste, they're smart people. They invest in cable companies. Those assets, the magazines, have literally been just a slow burn to irrelevance. Hearst has invested in all these incredible data companies like Fitch and this airline data company. They've actually grown their revenues. Condenaste has not. But the reporting I want to see, the only thing I know is that Lauren's going to have her girls in the window, and I'm here for it. Two, somehow, indirectly, there is an exchange of money here.
There is.
They're paying for it. Oh, is it already out? Oh, yeah.
No, they're back in. They're paying Are they waiting for it? Yeah. Anna Wynter shut them down. They turned them upside down, got their wallet, put them on the cover. They're paying for the whole thing.
Put them upside down and certain things moved, and certain things didn't. That's correct.
The money moved out of their pockets, and now they get to be the king and queen. There you go. Good for them. I feel good about this.
I'm here for his midlife crisis. I can't help it. I like Jeff Bezos.
What are they dressing? I want listeners to write it and we'll read them. What art will they dress up as? We need specifics. Sexy Mona Lisa.
I hope we get invited. I'd like to go to that. Do you think Will invite us?
No, I don't think they will. All right, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind and whatever you think Lauren and Jeff are going to wear. Go to nymag. Com/pivot to submit a question for this show. Call 8555. 1. Pivot before we go. As we said, Scott and I, also, besides Minneapolis, we're both returning to South by Southwest in Austin for three shows on the Vox Media podcast stage. It's a total South by Southwest takeover because we are the king and queen, speaking of which. That's right. We, Scott, will have his boobs out, just so you know, on the platter.
First, I'll be doing a live taping at Prop G Markets with Ed Elson on March 14th, where every person over the age of 40 will come up and go, I love your podcast. Is Ed single? I have a daughter. I'm so sick of people trying to set Ed up.
Well, he's more handsome than you are.
He's very handsome. He's a nice kid, too. He's a nice kid, too.
I mean, it's a low bar. Then on March 15th at 10: 00 AM, I'll be doing a live taping of On with two special guests I'm really excited about. Finally, we'll take the stage together on March 15th at 11: 30 for a live taping of Pivot. You can touch Scott's body parts. You stopped there. Yeah, anyway. Last year's Pivot taping at Southwest featured whiskey shots, partial nudity, IPO predictions, and some smart questions from our audience. Love it. We're going to double the fuck down on it, on that, and you don't want to miss it.
I love my Southwest. Aren't you excited?
Yeah, I'm excited. I'm excited to hang out with you. I'm excited. We're doing a lot of traveling together this year.
Oh, it's part of the Vox Vox Media podcast stage presented by Odoo.
The stage also features sessions from Brené Brown and Adam Grant, Marques Brownly, Instead Herndon.
As long as Esther Pirel is there to tell me that I'm okay.
I don't know if she's going to be there, but nonetheless, learn more and get a special discount on your innovation badge at voxmedia. Com/sxsw. That's voxmedia. Com/sxsw. We will see you there. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot, and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week.
Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Irtad engineered this episode. Manola Moreno edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Broze, Mia Severa, and Dan Chalan. Nishad Kharwa is Fox Media's executive producer podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine, nymag. Com/pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. One of my role models, Sam Harris, said that if you You have economic security and people who love you, and I'm blessed with both those things. You have an obligation to speak your mind. Support for this show comes from Tasty Trade. There's two types of traders out there, the ones who settle for the status quo and the ones who push the envelope. Tasty Trade is the platform of choice for the latter. With Tasty Trade, you can trade stocks, options, futures, and more all in one platform.
It offers low commissions, so you can keep more of what you earn.
Become the trader you always wanted to be. Go to TastyTrade. Com/vox today. Tasty Trade Incorporated is a registered broker dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC.
Kara and Scott discuss Anthropic pushing back on the Pentagon's demands, and Trump's longest State of the Union ever. Then, Paramount wins the battle for Warner Bros. after Netflix drops out — Puck’s Bill Cohan joins with insights. Plus, Nvidia posts blockbuster earnings, and a viral memo warning of AI-triggered mass layoffs rattles Wall Street.
Visit resistandunsubscribe.com for tickets to our Minneapolis show on March 8th! Proceeds to benefit the Immigrant Law Center of Minnesota.
Pivot is returning to the Vox Media Podcast Stage at SXSW for a live taping on March 15th, presented by Odoo. Visit voxmedia.com/sxsw to learn more and get a 15% discount on your Innovation badge. Or use code VOXMEDIA15 at checkout on SXSW.com.
Watch this episode on the Pivot YouTube channel.Follow us on Instagram and Threads at @pivotpodcastofficial.Follow us on Bluesky at @pivotpod.bsky.socialFollow us on TikTok at @pivotpodcast.Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email pivot@voxmedia.com
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices