This Election Day episode of Morning Wire previews the races that could decide control of the Senate, the House and 36 governorships. Tim Rice examines close Senate contests in Michigan, Texas, Alaska, Maine and New Hampshire, where recent controversies have reshaped the campaigns.
Cabot Phillips outlines House and governor races, including an early Kentucky bellwether and Republican defenses in Georgia, Nevada, Kansas and Ohio. Mary Margaret Olohan then looks at President Trump's final campaign swing and how his veto power could shape policy if Democrats win Congress.
Listeners get a clear guide to what to watch as results arrive.
In this episode Georgia Howe, John Bickley, Cabot Phillips, Mary Margaret Olohan, Tim Rice
The transcript of this Election Day Morning Wire episode on Senate, House and governor races was made with HappyScribe technology that converts audio to text.
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The midterms have finally arrived, and the battle for control of the Senate has been the costliest and most contentious ever. I'm Georgia Howe with "Daily Wire" executive editor John Bickley. It's Tuesday, November 3, Election Day, and this is "Morning Wire."
36 governorships are up for grabs along with all 435 House seats. We run through the key races to watch.
And will President Trump have to become Mr. Veto after the midterm dust settles?
If that happens, I guess I'll become Mr. Veto, and then at some point we'll probably make deals. That's what's happened. I mean, this is—this wouldn't be the first time.
Thanks for waking up with "Morning Wire." Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.
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Joining us now in studio is our D.C. bureau chief, Tim Rice. Great to have you here.
So happy to be here, guys.
Nothing to talk about today.
Oh, no. I figured we'd just catch up.
The day is finally here. You know, we wanted to start with the Senate. The Senate has had the most focus nationally, for good reason. There's been lots going on there, and there's been a lot of developments in the last days before this election, more so than I can ever remember happening. So let's start with Michigan. That's one we've been tracking very closely. What's the latest there?
Yeah, so this whole blowup between Abdullah Al-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, and Congresswoman Haley Stevens, who he narrowly defeated in a primary earlier this year, the Democratic primary. On Sunday, she shocked pretty much everybody by going to church with and then appearing at a rally and endorsing Republican Mike Rogers, who she had obviously been running against as the presumptive Democrat. She said that she's really, really gotten nervous about his stance on Israel and his refusal to do things like denounce the Muslim Brotherhood, explain his ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
And most recently, the straw that broke her back, it seems, was this super PAC ran that ad that I'm sure many of our viewers have seen, essentially saying that American taxpayer dollars are going to killing Palestinians, right? And she asked him, she said, "I will endorse you, and I will campaign for you in the final days of this campaign if you denounce this ad." And instead, Al-Sayed uninvited her from the rally that she was supposed to join him at. So instead, she came out and endorsed Mike Rogers and was very clear about the reason for that. So a really stunning act from this woman whose career in Democratic politics is almost certainly over.
Yeah.
Regardless of the outcome of that race, and really just kind of putting a final point on this explosive race that was really driven by Al-Sayed's criticism of Israel and radical Muslim points that he's been making. But nevertheless, to your point, John, just maybe one of the most shocking things we've ever seen happen just a couple of days before an election.
Well, and then his comments about transgenderism.
Right, that's right.
Really went viral.
Yeah, he went on "60 Minutes."
What happened? Do you think that's going to have an impact?
You know, that's another one where and so just for context, the one on "60 Minutes" and Ross Dalthat asked him about his statements and, you know, about, well, you know, let's get down, let's drill down to the most serious example, right, not talking about women's sports or things. Let's talk about locker rooms in middle schools. Should biological boys be in locker rooms with biological girls, vice versa? And his kind of flippant answer was, well, you know, if they don't learn about this sort of thing in the locker room, they'll learn about it on the Internet. They all have smartphones. So again, a very shocking statement that in any other race and with any other candidate, I think, would have a really big impact even this late in the game.
The problem is that Abdullah Al-Sayed has been saying stuff like this from the beginning. It did not stop him from winning the primary. It did not stop Democratic elites and leaders and the media from flocking behind him. It hasn't stopped him so far.
Now, moving to Texas, that's the other really hot Senate race that we've been tracking the past few months. Where do things stand now with Ken Paxton versus James Talarico?
It's incredibly close. This is another one that, much like Michigan, has been very divisive. Sort of a couple of shocking candidates, right? If you think back, of course, Ken Paxton, the Attorney General of Texas, defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the Republican primary, and James Talarico sort of had every Republican strategist in the country scared out of their minds when he dropped that first ad. It seemed like there was finally a Democrat who knew how to run on being a devout Christian. James Talarico then spent the entire campaign disabusing anyone of the notion that he was anything close to a devout Christian.
Just yesterday, our colleague Leif Lemayhew had a pretty incredible story that James Talarico follows a lot of pornographic accounts on Twitter, including one who is a male porn actor who it seems was his friend in college and whom he still follows on Twitter and had some curious interactions with back in their college days. So I'd encourage everybody to read that story. I will say, unlike Michigan.
Don't follow all the links.
Don't follow any of the links. No, we obviously didn't put anything bad in there. Unlike in Michigan, we have seen how the public reaction to Talarico's extreme leftist beliefs has shifted the race, right? He went on Fox News and tried to walk back previous comments about trans children. He used to say that he was a vegan. Now he swears that he isn't. And there's all these clips of him kind of pretending to enjoy cheeseburgers and barbecues and things like that. So we have seen Talarico try to move to placate Texas moderates and potentially undecided voters. The biggest probably obstacle there is Paxton himself.
He has a little bit of a checkered past. He hasn't gotten much help from Donald Trump, who has spent a lot of time on the campaign trail talking about how he doesn't really think that Ken Paxton is a good candidate. But the other thing that I would encourage people to look at is, obviously, that Senate race has dominated a lot of the media attention, certainly a lot of the attention about Texas. There are a lot of really fascinating and close House races in Texas that we don't have time to get into now, but you can pop over to our midterm hub and look at them, get your picks in if you haven't yet. But there's that's a lot, too, right?
Obviously, for Democrats, the prize is getting a Democratic senator.
A final question. So we've also looked at Alaska more than we had planned to. It's gotten very fascinating. There's a legal battle. Where does that stand? And what are some other races to watch?
The Dan Sullivan scandal. No one really knows. The latest development is that people can't find Decoy Dan, as they're calling him, the independent candidate drafted by Democrats in order to throw people, to confuse people as they approach Alaska's ranked choice voting system, but still an incredibly tight race between the real Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola. Maine, of course. Will Susan Collins be able to pull off what's probably her fifth surprise election in a very blue-leaning state against Troy Jackson? I would also keep an eye on, and we'll be keeping an eye on Kansas where Roger Marshall put out a somewhat interesting closing message.
And then New Hampshire. I'm still a lot of people think New Hampshire is in the bag with Congressman Chris Pappis, but Johnson-Unu, who comes from a New Hampshire political family, a very beloved New Hampshire political family. His father and brother were both governors. One was a senator. If you're going to be a Republican and win in New Hampshire, it helps to be a guy named Johnson-Unu. He's also just a very likable and popular candidate. Has a lot of cross appeal. He famously got President Trump's endorsement but has never actually met President Trump, so that allows him to kind of skirt this line.
But yeah, there's, what, 35 Senate races, every House race, 36 governors' battles. It is going to be a fun day.
All right. Well, Tim, we're looking forward to it. Thanks for coming on.
Anytime, guys.
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All 435 House seats and 36 governors' races are also on the ballot today.
Here to preview it all is Wired In host Cabot Phillips. So, Cabot, what's the landscape as it relates to the House and the governors' races?
Well, let's go through all 435. We'll start with House District number one. No. Georgia, it is a mixed bag, but it's been trending the wrong way for the GOP in recent months, similar to the Senate. There's little question about that. Republicans right now hold just a 219 to 214 seat majority in the lower chamber, meaning Democrats only need a net gain of just three seats. And, guys, it goes without saying that since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 26 seats each midterm. Most experts are forecasting a 12 to 25 seat pickup for Democrats, and the outlook for the governors' races is not much better for Republicans.
But again, it's worth pointing out the experts have been wrong plenty of times. We don't want to get out ahead of our skis too much here. Republicans on the governor's side are trying to hold the mansions in four purple states: Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and Nevada, all states where Trump is right now unpopular despite having past electoral success. The forecasts and polls are not pretty in any of those races right now, so Republicans are counting on the polls being wrong yet again, combined with their moves to redistrict several maps in their favor earlier this year and also a massive wave of late spending to push their candidates over the top, especially, again, in those states that Trump won in 2024.
The GOP is banking on those being environments that are a lot more favorable to them than some of these purple and blue states.
Now, on the House side, what are the main races to watch tonight that might be bellwethers? And then how did the redistricting potentially affect the races?
Well, we're going to get our first answer to that question very soon. The first polls close at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time from Kentucky, which normally is not a very interesting state. It's just all red all the way. But this cycle, it actually has what most analysts are looking at as an early bellwether race for the House. Trump previously won Kentucky's sixth congressional district, which is centered around the city of Lexington and its suburbs, by 15 points. But the Cook Political Report now calls it a key bellwether for a blue wave as an open seat in a white suburban district, the exact kind that Trump performed very well in in 2024.
So in that first hour, if results start coming in in that Kentucky district and they look good for Democrats, could tell us the way that the night is going to go on the House side. And then at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, Miami Republican Rep. Maria Elviar Salazar is defending a seat that Trump also won by 15 points. This one will tell us a lot, potentially, about Hispanic voters and how they're faring, another key demographic the GOP did very well with in 2024, but they'll need to do very well again this race, especially to hold on to House seats in Florida and Texas. Now, with regard to the redistricting efforts more broadly, initially, when those maps were redrawn, the experts were saying it would guarantee Republicans an additional 12 to 14 House seats.
But the way things currently stand, it does look like a number of those seats may actually go blue and that those efforts could be thwarted and ultimately only net a few extra seats being added.
Now, wrapping up with the governors' races, 36 seats are in play. What are the key ones to watch?
Yeah, Republicans currently hold 26 governorships to Democrats' 24. And as I mentioned before, there are four key states right now the GOP are trying to hold. Georgia Republican Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited. A Republican billionaire healthcare exec Rick Jackson has been trailing Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, by about two points in that open race. Bottoms is running pretty far behind incumbent Democrat Senator Jon Ossoff in his reelection bid in most polls, but most forecasters are leaning towards Bottoms in their final projections. And a big reason is because Ossoff is expected to run up the score in Georgia.
The down-ballot impact of that on the governors' race could be immense.
Yeah.
Then you've got Nevada, which is pretty much a dead heat. Earlier this year, the race did not even look competitive. Republican Governor Joe Lombardo was extremely popular. He was leading by double digits in some polls, but now multiple surveys have the Democratic nominee within the margin of error. One has them tied at 47. In Kansas, Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is term-limited. A Republican state Senate President Ty Masterson has led in recent polls. Then Ohio, probably the most closely watched governors' race in the country. Trump-endorsed nominee Vivek Ramaswamy faces former state health director Amy Acton.
Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006, but Vivek has not run a smooth campaign. He's running behind Republican Senator John Husted, who has also won the ballot in every single poll, and he's slightly behind Acton despite heavy Republican investment in the state. Trump won by 11 points just a few years ago.
Well, all of these races very important. Cabot, remind us, how can people follow our election coverage?
Yes. I'll be going live at 6:00 p.m. Eastern tonight. We'll have Ben Shapiro, Matt Walsh, Andrew Klabe, and Michael Knowles, all the guys, on my set from 6:00 to 8:00. And then at 8:00, we're going to the big boy desk. We've got the huge board tracking every single race, every result as it comes in. That will be on from 8:00 p.m. until we have an idea of where things are going. We're ready to go all night.
After months of campaigning, elections will finally be decided by tonight. And one key question hanging over the results is how they will affect President Trump's strategy going forward.
Joining us to discuss the president's options, especially if the GOP comes up short, is White House correspondent Mary Margaret Olahan. So before we get to the doomsday, you know, blue wave scenario, where did President Trump spend his final days of campaigning, and what should we make of that?
Hey, guys. So President Donald Trump has spent the last couple of weeks campaigning all over the United States. He's gone to 29 rallies in person, and last night he held a bunch of telerallies from the White House. In the last two states he was in, that was Iowa and Kansas, those are states that he won comfortably in 2024. So interesting places to end the campaigning. But across the country, and I went to a couple of these, the message was the same from the president, and that message was, do you want more successes from this administration, two more years of Republicans working for you, working with us, or do you want to vote into office a bunch of extreme and radical Democrats?
And that's the message that they've really been pushing across the board, whether it's President Donald Trump or whether it's Vice President J.D. Vance or even Mike Johnson campaigning all over the country, talking about the difference between Republicans and Democrats. And I think it tells you something really important about the Republican strategy because Trump has spent a considerable amount of time on the road. This is not an easy lift for the president. Obviously, he takes Air Force One. He flies private. If I am on the road with him, I get to do the same. But some of these rallies, he's getting back home at 1:30 in the morning, and then he's up again at, whatever, 8:00 a.m.
in the Oval Office back at work. So it's got to be taking a toll on him. And while legacy media has repeatedly told us that the president doesn't care about the midterms and that it's no skin off his nose whether Republicans do well or not, he's been all over the country telling people, "Pretend I'm on the ballot." And so that's really the message we've been hearing very consistently for the past couple of weeks.
Now, President Trump, of course, is very famous for giving nicknames, and it sounds like he already has one queued up for if the GOP takes a big hit. He's calling himself Mr. Vito. Tell us about that. What's he indicating with that nickname?
Well, I think that's the president signaling that he is prepared to fight a Democratic Congress. He is prepared to aggressively battle with these Democrats who have honestly gotten into office by campaigning about how horrible they believe he is. And if Democrats take control of the House, they're going to gain subpoena power and control over congressional investigations. And so we're probably going to see some impeachment efforts against the president. There are some Democrats who have kind of wavered and said they're not sure if they want to do that. But we do know that the core of the Democrat Party does want to impeach the president.
But the big thing here to remember is that Trump still has the veto power, so they're not going to simply be able to reverse his policies without his signature or the votes to override him. And Trump has spent a lot of his presidency governing through executive actions. So he can continue, you know, pursuing immigration enforcement or other administrative priorities just through the limits of his executive authority. So I think on this point, he's been very straightforward. He will be Mr. Vito if he needs to, if Democrats are in power and they're fighting him on this.
He's not going to go down without a fight. And I think that's the Trump that we all know so well and would imagine that he would continue to be.
Indeed. Well, we know you have a busy election day today, but we'll be hearing from you in our election coverage this evening as the results start streaming in. Thanks so much for coming on.
Thanks for having me.
Thanks for waking up with us. Plus, remember to check out Daily Wire's Election Hub tonight. You can watch our coverage and watch as the results come in.
To enjoy the show ad-free and join our mission, become a member at dailywire.com. We'll be back this evening with more news you need to know.
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The Midterms have finally arrived — and the battle for control of the Senate has been the costliest and most contentious ever, 36 governorships are up for grabs, along with all 435 House seats. We run through the key races to watch, and will President Trump have to become “Mr Veto” after the midterm dust settles? Reporting from Tim Rice, Cabot Phillips & Mary Margaret Olohan. Get the facts first with Morning Wire.- - -Ep. 3176- - -Wake up with new Morning Wire merch: https://bit.ly/4lIubt3- - -Today's Sponsors:Balance of Nature - 35% off your first subscription at https://BalanceofNature.com with promo code WIRE.Jack Archer - Jack Archer is offering our listeners 15% off your first order. Go to https://JackArcher.com/WIRE Lean - LEAN is a doctor-developed, non-prescription weight-loss supplement designed to support weight loss in three ways: helping convert stored fat into energy, helping maintain healthy blood sugar, and helping manage appetite and that constant food noise that can make staying on track so difficult. Go to HTTPS://TAKELEAN.COM and use code WIRE for 20% off. - - -Privacy Policy: https://www.dailywire.com/privacymorning wire,morning wire podcast,the morning wire podcast,Georgia Howe,John Bickley,daily wire podcast,podcast,news podcast
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