Transcript of Players We're Afraid to Be Wrong About - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/2

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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in.

The Fantasy Footballers Podcast, Wednesday, September 2nd. Jason Moore is here. Mike, the Fantasy Hitman. I'm Andy Holloway. And as always, full deucers. Well, not as always, but today we've got them all. Papa Josh back there in the middle. Al Borland doing most of the work. And then Falcons over there as well.

So smirking.

The smirking Falcon. Welcome into the show.

Great one.

Smirking, wearing a merkin.

We've got players we're afraid to be wrong about today. Players we're afraid to be wrong about. There's a handful. I mean, you draw a line in the sand and you're trying to figure out what you're supposed to be doing.

Mine.

I'm—

well, we will get into it, but guys, I'm getting the heebie-jeebies on this guy.

As in you're afraid you're going to be wrong?

I'm afraid we're all going to be wrong.

Okay.

On the guy that you are bringing up today?

Yeah.

I don't even know who it is.

So it's somebody that we all—

That's how I feel about my dude.

But if we are wrong about this, it's going to be a disaster.

Oh no.

Yeah. All right.

I'm excited to find out who yours is.

We've got the UDK. I did a little poll this morning. 50-50 is about people with drafts in the past.

That's wild.

Drafts in the future.

That's wild.

So if you, if you're not in there and you need help and draft day is coming up and I know we've done this for 12 years. I know I get to see what happens every single year and 95% of you wait until the last 10 seconds before your draft to figure out your plan. I know the way it works.

It is human nature.

It is. So take advantage of the opportunity right now. Go to ultimatedraftkit.com and pick it up. You'll have the app with you on draft day. You can go in and make all— I've made all my player marks and I did some more this morning for our upcoming draft. Yeah. League of Record players I want to make sure I don't forget.

Did you highlight Sailors?

Sailor Jerry?

I didn't.

Oh, really?

No, you're saying that because I have—

I'm a Sailor.

Jahmyr Gibbs.

No, not just that. Just because I was saying it because this is a guy that I think I would say the vast majority of our listeners right now literally don't know who I'm talking about.

And that's why you highlight. So do you highlight players that you don't know?

You highlight players that are so easy to forget, especially the ones that are really down in ADP that you might think about grabbing with your last round.

He's not one of those.

Yeah. He might not be. He might be.

But Emmitt Johnson is.

Oh, absolutely.

That, you know, some of these players that ADPs are not going to move. I mean, you were making the point this morning.

Claiborne? Is Claiborne on that list?

He should be. Yeah. For Minnesota. The biggest problem is, is that there's kind of like a different, a couple of different ways to think about this. All of these like maybe high value backup running backs are not necessarily going to get projected for stats that are going to make you notice them in terms of our rankings and where they show up. Right.

Right.

If you highlight them, these are great players like we talked about in the depth episode on the top tip, the tips and tricks episode. There are, it's very easy to know who's going to get the work on a number of these teams if players go down.

Yeah. And just for full disclosure, Jacob Sailors is Sailor Jerry.

Who you called Jerry this morning.

Yeah. Sailor Jerry.

Oh, is that why you said Jerry Sailors?

For sure. No, but Jacob Sailors, a player you've never heard of. Player I had never heard of. And I, you know, we were pretty serious about football analysis. He is like the backup now to Jahmyr Gibbs with Pacheco gone.

And they're like, they're saying Kareem Hunt signs.

They're saying, sure. And he should.

They hope Pacheco comes back this year. Did you see that?

Yes.

Yes.

Oh my goodness.

So yeah.

All it really means is Jahmyr Gibbs is going to get Oh gosh. 1,000 touches this year.

He could have 105% of the running back share.

He's going to die.

That's what I—

I don't know how he makes it through this season.

Don't say such things. Jahmyr Gibbs will not get hurt this year.

Oh, is that— oh, is that a—

it worked for you last year. But yeah, did I say it with huge nerves?

Yeah.

Okay.

What else is going on?

I will say this.

Yes. Talk about the listener league.

The listener league. Genuine, genuine, genuine. Genuine thank you to the Foot Clan. It takes us so much time to go through all these submissions. And, you know, it's a— we make the league 14 teams so that we can have as many people as possible in there. There's still so few spots that are actually available. I'm going to be getting back to everybody today, whether you made it in, whether you didn't, whether you were close. It was like, I just— it's always like emotionally devastating to watch these Awesome videos. I just edited a bunch of videos from like my kids' college applications. And I know the work that goes in and I'm watching it. I'm like, you did so much work. You're so cool. You know the show and you didn't make it because there's just so few spots. So I'm going to be getting back to the people.

We are like Harvard.

Thank you.

You know, it's strict.

Absolutely.

This is a Harvard.

This is an Ivy League league.

Ivy League.

Yes. So thank you. We'll be getting back to those who are going to be playing in the listener league with us this week. Or this year, I will be getting back to you today. And if you're like, I don't know how I could possibly get in one of the spots, that's the winner of the Megalobowl. They're in this year because they won last year. So that's always your chance if you're playing in the Megalobowl. Win and you're in our listener league next year.

Quick question of the day from Garrett in Texas. Having a debate with the boys. In your opinion, what percentage of fantasy is skill and knowing what you're doing and what percentage is just dumb luck? And I guess Kyle put a new episode, a new article on the site that is literally titled, Is Fantasy Football Hard?

I haven't read it yet, but he was talking about he's been sitting on it forever and like worked hard on it. I have like a Slack reminder to go read that. Very curious.

Coming off of my super duper champ year, the answer to that question is no.

Oh my gosh.

It's not.

Mute his microphone.

Not luck, huh? It's just—

no, he's fantasy football hard.

Oh, I see.

Luck versus skill. Obviously there is some luck involved. You cannot possibly predict injuries.

There's luck in the sport of football.

Absolutely.

Injuries.

Yeah. Injuries or a tipped ball.

The ball, like just the shape of the football causes like when it bounces, you're not 100% sure where that ball is going to go.

I will say this here. There's a phrase that we used to say all the time around the office that we never really said on the show. I don't know why it was like a, it almost felt negative, but it's really not. And I say this in my life all the time, and I believe this. I believe it takes pure skill to make the playoffs. In fantasy football, if you're skilled, you're going to make the playoffs. If you look at who makes the playoffs year after year after year in your league, it's going to be the better managers, period. And then it takes some luck to win the championship.

Absolutely.

When you're in the playoffs and you're going up against good teams and you've got, you know, one win and out. I feel like takes skill to make the playoffs, takes luck to win the championship.

Now you have a note to read the article, Is Fantasy Football Hard by Kyle Borgagnoni. But did you know the estimated reading time on that article is 17 minutes?

I'm out. I'm out. Give me a TLDR.

The TLDR is that the good habits of fantasy football are easy, but the sport is chaotic.

Okay.

Well, I don't need to read that. 17 minutes. That's like an average—

Number 2?

An average bathroom visit for you.

Oh, that's a below average for him. Okay. 2 things. 2 things, sir.

One, time-wise, you're correct.

Yeah.

I'm a slow reader. Okay. If it's 17 minutes on average, that's a 30-minute burger for me.

So just to be clear, you're a slow reader, but you're not a slow number 2.

Oh, I am. Oh, okay. I'm just—

you could— what you should call Kyle while you're in the bathroom and have him read it to you.

That's a great idea.

Goodness gracious.

That's a great idea. It's really good. Kyle, get ready.

Kyle's FaceTime. All right. Let's talk news.

News and notes from around the league.

Well, the Lions did place Isaiah Pacheco on injured reserve. So he's out at least the first 4 games of the season. Congratulations to Isaiah Pacheco or to Jahmyr Gibbs. Kareem Hunt visited last week, didn't sign. I don't know how much Kareem Hunt has left. I don't know if he fits. I would have been shocked that they didn't sign him then, to be honest with you, because this isn't a surprise. Pacheco's— this news has been percolating through press conferences for weeks of like kind of inferring that he's not even a part of the equation. So the money probably doesn't add up.

Yeah. And you had Dan Campbell after the visit talk about Jacob Sailors and saying like, we're confident in him. He knows the system. It's great that we have a good backup.

You think that's bringing the price down on Hunt? Is that what the—

Maybe. It has to be because this dude is not—

I won't care.

I just believe Dan Campbell.

Right.

Like, I, I don't know.

He doesn't have the will to lie.

He may. I'm sure he does. And I was just saying, like, if he, if he in fact is a liar, liar pants, as a lot of these coaches are, I mean, he's, he's very good at it.

I think there's a correlation to how much you cry to how much you lie. And he cries a lot. So if you cry, you don't lie.

Okay.

You can always trust the tears, Mike.

Not crocodile tears.

No Sean Moreno shout out. George Kittle traveling.

Oh baby.

With the 49ers to Australia.

Let's go, George.

So it seems like George has had a couple of great practices and may literally start the season with a confusing level of production. That would be my guess. If he, if he's starting the season. We're not expecting full snap counts, right?

No, no, no, no. It's going to take some time.

But, and Australia is super far from the substation.

Yeah. It's about as far as you can get.

Yeah. That's like going as far away as you can.

It's great to see him there. I can't fathom. I cannot fathom. Like if you, I mean, this is the real push comes to shove right now for everybody listening. If you draft George Kittle and he is active week 1, Are you playing him?

Oh, that's, that's a whole different discussion.

We are, we're working on our, our week 1 rankings right now. So those will be, those will be up early this next week, obviously, as next week is week 1. But I, I think there are many other better options than Kittle week 1.

This was kind of why I thought the Tonjes-McBasketball could not work out for people. It was the idea that Kittle starts or starts soon and then both guys play. And like, you know, the problem is, is if you take Kittle, there's a draft price and you really can't spend another one in that range.

It's like an 8th rounder.

For Kittle?

Yeah.

Oh, not in— I think in some leagues maybe.

Yeah. Kittle's usually an 8th rounder, but it's going to be earlier. That's still— you're still giving up. You're still giving up.

I've just said where his ADP has been and I've been Jason, you're— Jason's out on Kittle. I am willing to accept the cost and the risk and the slower start because of what George Kittle can become. Like, if you want to, if you want to take George in the 8th and then stream the position for a few weeks, I'm okay with that because the players you're drafting later, like, while you can get, you can piece together your production. and be okay with your floor. No one represents what George Kittle can do should he make a— like, it's a miraculous comeback.

Yeah.

But I would— the fact that he's already traveling says a lot.

Week 1, would you start George Kittle or like Dalton Schultz?

Yeah, that's where I'll probably just roll Kittle and just see if I can get a touchdown. That was going to be my point.

Let's say Hunter Henry, Juwan Johnson, Britton Strange.

I'd start Juwan Johnson. I would be willing to start the other 2 over Kittle.

I would as well.

Yeah. Yeah. My point being, you can't— let's say Kittle goes in as a 6th this weekend. I don't think that's unreasonable.

He's—

this kind of news of him starting the season, I've seen him go in 6s in leagues that we're in. My point being, you can't spend another 7th on Goedert or Likely or an 8th or something like— like you're going to have to take a lower guy like Schultz. And then in that case, I might just start Kittle.

Yeah.

We won't, we don't have any reports yet. We don't even know if he's going to be active. But like, what would not surprise me?

Inactive in Australia would be wild.

Yeah.

He did travel though. I mean, if he's traveling, I assume he's going to be active.

I'm expecting him to be active. And it wouldn't surprise me if we get, you know, limited snaps, but George is going to be there in the red zone. And it's like, okay, give me just the red zone trips of George Kittle versus a full game of Dalton Schultz.

But of Alvin Johnson, who's also on draft night. This is why I'm just out.

This is why I'm out on George.

Like all of this debate, all this like, oh, what do we do? How do we— I don't, I don't have to do any of this. I just have an extra player on my roster and I'm starting.

Kittle has been historically injury prone. That is going to be a component.

And historically awesome though.

Yeah, I get it. I know this is not, it's not surprising to me that Mike Wright would pick a 49er with a long injury history to be a league winner. It's just that we'll find out if fantasy football is luck or not.

Did he look so good when he wasn't injured last year?

Carnell Tate working out stiffness, did not practice on Tuesday, Robert Saleh said.

Boo.

It's not the thing you want to hear.

Oh, come on, man.

Tee Higgins tending to a heel contusion.

Uh-oh.

Isn't considered to be a major concern of week 1.

Both him and Jamar were like, they're limited. But everything is just saying they're going to be fine.

It's funny if Jamar's not practicing and Tee Higgins is not practicing. It's like one of them is like, cool. All right, Jamar, just rest up. T is like, oh no, red alert.

Well, let's just continue the great news for Jason. Travion Henderson continues to rehab right ankle injury, has not been cleared for full participation yet. All the more reasons that—

Disgusting.

Top of season, Rhamondre is a steal.

Oh, I hate it.

Jonathan Brooks missed practice due to general soreness. Uh-oh.

Yeah, but Chuba's back.

And Chuba, there was one report that he'll lead. Lead the backfield.

What? I was going to ask who that was with a really bad joke about General Soreness.

If you had— no, no, no. If you had gotten it in, I would have liked that.

I was too late. I was saying I knew I was too late. So that's why I laughed to myself when Andy called me out.

General Soreness, like as a character?

Yes. Yeah.

I'm not going to lie. That went through my head. The way it was said.

Oh, he's not going to do this because of General Soreness. He said, I'm not allowed.

Like an order from General Soreness.

Exactly.

Get in there, Colonel. I will say this.

This really stinks for a guy.

It's so stupid. It's so, so dumb.

I tweeted this out.

Colonel Tightness would have been furious about it.

I tweeted this out, but it's really true. Like Jonathan Brooks missing practice for a guy who has like had one healthy season since high school and Kendre Miller was off the field at practice. Just makes me go, oh, oh, Marshawn Lloyd. It's coming.

Kendre's back.

No.

For how long? No.

What?

He got hurt yesterday.

Yeah.

He's, he's, he's back again.

It's supposed to be minor. No big deal. I think he's going to be back today. Kyle Minungai week to week due to right knee injury. That's, you know what? There's a week until the season. Yeah.

I mean, that means he's not playing week 1.

Yeah.

I mean, Jen, pretty much like that's how I take Kyle Minungai. Or that's how Josh takes Kyle Minungai in a chopped league as his running back 2 because—

Oh, he did.

Yeah. Yeah. But it was like he likes not having the players that play week 1 according to his draft.

Was he following the Jeremy draft plan?

Yes.

At least I didn't know when I drafted.

There's something extra special about the Packer fan taking Jacobs too. Because let's be honest. That's why you took him.

Oh, he got Jonathan Brooks as his running back 1. So that's good.

Oh, does he really?

No way. Yeah. But it's okay because he's got neighbors.

Well, it's only a chop league. If you're last week 1, then—

Oh, he's got neighbors. So he might play week 1 too.

So Roschon Johnson.

Wait, he has neighbors? Yeah. And Puka.

And Puka.

Who, who, look, the—

and Kittle.

Are you kidding me?

What could possibly go wrong?

All 5 of those guys could literally not play week 1.

Name your team week 2. Because you're—

oh, I'll name the team week 2. It's all those players aren't waivers.

For the Chicago Bears, Roschon Johnson will be next man up.

Okay.

I forgot about him.

Yeah.

Also, DeAndre Swift.

Yeah. Swift is a great pick right now.

Khalil Shakir remained sidelined at Tuesday's practice. Okay. Bijan Robinson. Oh boy. The Athletic reporting fantasy managers may not like how many goal line carries Brian Robinson gets. I get it.

Yeah.

Is it more than, is it more than one?

Right.

Then I'm unhappy.

Honestly, if it's more than zero.

The fact that the backup there is prototypical bruiser.

It was like Allgeier. Allgeier's 225-pound back that was used around the goal line. With success.

So it's a differentiator between the Jahmyr Gibbs who doesn't have that on a good team.

Yes, for sure. I mean, that's why he's the RB2 versus RB1. I mean, it used to be a debate. It's not anymore. Gibbs is in a tier of his own.

I bet we come on this show this year and we are upset a couple of times.

But like Tyler Allgeier had 19 carries inside the 10 last year. I doubt that's going up for Brian Robinson.

19?

Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, if that's the role that they're going to use, it's just sad for the like 20 touchdown upside potential because Bijan could lead. Like he's, he's been, I think, number 3 at running back.

Yeah. Do you think the Falcons scored 20 touchdowns this year as a team? Probably.

But yeah, right now it's not feeling great. But that's why Tua posted affirmations to himself.

Oh no. Someone, I have to believe it's someone else who has access, like a family member or a PR person who was like, you got this, Tua, we love you, has access to his account and didn't log into their account and was like giving Tua that affirmation. But it was Tua commenting on his own IG post of like, you got this, Tua, you're so good. We're with you.

Brooks is like, oh my gosh, that was real. Yeah, that was real, Brooks. The nice thing is, is it was a message of like, like a family member. If it had been like, Tua is underrated and he's never performed. He'll perform this year from Tua.

That would be worse.

He didn't, what, Kevin Durant?

Kevin Durant.

Yeah.

By the way, Mike, how'd your boy do last night in his first high school football game ever?

Thank you.

Girl.

Thank you. I found out last night that high school teams in Arizona are allowed to play preschools. I did not know. I did not know that.

I appreciate you bringing that up. My boy had a scoop and score off of a punt block.

Delightful.

He had his own blocked punt.

Spectacular.

And then he had an interception.

Oh, God.

How did he do in the second half?

That was— well, that was all in the first quarter. And then the team they were playing, which we've never seen, I don't like still to this day. That they couldn't score. gave up at halftime.

What was the final score?

It was 56 to 0 at halftime.

Oh, brother.

All right. Wrecked. Want to know?

But hey, thank you for—

It'll probably get harder.

Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. But it's like, that's awesome. A week 1 is like, okay, we'll take it. We'll take a freebie, get some confidence.

Pretty strong start.

Hey, in Arizona, if you only have to go for 2 quarters of outdoor football and you get to go home, that's pretty good.

It was a win.

Tell them to shut that thing down early. All right. Yeah. Congrats to your boy. Let's take a break and then we'll talk about players we're afraid to be wrong about. This should be fun.

Players I'm afraid to be wrong about.

Spectacular. Spectacular. That tone, that kind of scary motif is how I feel about these guys. They're— we're all talking about one name as kind of a main pick of players that we have ranked a certain way and then we're kind of afraid to be wrong about. But we'll throw in another name or two. Who wants to start?

I'll start. I can start. I've been changing my opinion a little bit lately, but just so I still haven't drafted him. This is a guy I've pretty much been out on from the moment that news broke that he should or could be very relevant this year. I was like, I don't believe it. It's DJ Moore. DJ Moore, new wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills, is a player that is like, it is it Stefon Diggs part 2. Years ago, Stefon Diggs, he had a down year in Minnesota. He went from being a wide receiver 1 to a wide receiver 2 in fantasy football. Then gets traded after that down year to the Buffalo Bills. And at that point in time, Josh Allen was not a—

it's not really a down year.

Just, well, I mean, he went from the wide receiver 11 to the wide receiver 21. He wasn't bad at all. He was like 17 yards.

No, those are the most yards of his career to that point.

Just out of curiosity, DJ Moore is like what, 29?

29. And at that point, Diggs was 27. Correct. So I am, I am pretty out because You know, I went back and I looked at Diggs and I was like, how did the world was very down on Diggs? Diggs was very similar to DJ Moore. I want to say he was a 7th round pick in fantasy football, maybe a 6th round pick about where DJ Moore is going after that trade. The Bills weren't seen as a juggernaut offense.

And at that, Josh Allen wasn't Josh Allen yet.

Right. And so that was part of like the downplaying. I was very bullish on Stefon Diggs that year. That was, that was one of my, probably one of my biggest wins ever because he was a league winner. Finished as the wide receiver 3. And I worry that like, okay, we've got a guy in DJ Moore who has always been a very good wide receiver who lacked a great quarterback. And while Caleb Williams last year looked pretty good, that's still not what Josh Allen is. He is going to play with his best quarterback of his entire career on a, you know, we just drafted yesterday like the top 10. Offenses. Buffalo is, if they're not 1, they're no lower than 5. They are absolutely one of the elite of the elites, the S-class tier. And so it's like, okay, now he's the wide receiver 1. Camp highlights have been great. All of the buzz after when he first arrived, it was like, oh, he's having trouble getting on the same page with Josh Allen. He's got to learn the playbook. It seems like he did because Practice after practice after practice, he's leading the team in targets.

He's dominating the defenders. He's looking great. And part of me is still like thinking Allen Robinson vibes, later career goes to the Rams and in practice and in these camp highlights and the one-hand, you know, end zone touchdown. It's like he looks good. He was paid money. DJ Moore was traded for with good capital.

Yeah.

They paid a lot more than the going rate was assumed. Then they paid the man money. He is their one. It should work for fantasy. But what I saw last year from DJ Moore was like, he don't— he didn't break tackles the way that was his trademark forever. He is older, you know, 29 years old is like, that's the time where you start to worry. So I have not been bullish on him. I haven't been in on him. I haven't drafted him. And I'm worried I'm going to be wrong because if it hits, if he's just If he is a good wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills with no target competition, like at the end of this year, you can be like, how did we not all know that he was going to be wide receiver 1 for fantasy? Because his upside is like top 10 wide receiver.

Yeah, we have, we do have the back of our minds, the Amari Cooper trade that didn't do anything. We also would not have changed that opinion about the Bills offense if he didn't exist there.

Correct.

You would have thought the same thing. So there's a lot of reasons to be like, We've watched him succeed, Josh Allen, with no wide receiver 1, with just a bunch of options. You like Dalton Kincaid. Now Shakir being out to start the year, potentially also interesting. Yeah. There's, there's a lot kind of swirling around there. And it's really like, if you, if you want to make the bull case for DJ Moore being fine and being good for Buffalo, I think you also can look to Chicago didn't want him.

No.

Chicago inherited him. Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze. It didn't seem like they ever schemed him to his strengths.

They used him poorly last year. 30% of his routes were slants. I'm sorry, 21% of his routes. So few of his routes were slants, crosser screens. Like that's his, what he does well. They just didn't use him the way that he has always thrived. They wanted to move on. They wanted to have this new trifecta of Loveland, Odunze, and Burden. But gosh, it just, it didn't feel like, like Joe Brady is a big part of this, right? The new head coach, former OC for the Bills, who used to be the OC back in Carolina when DJ Moore was in his prime. He's like, he was talking about how in 2025, I saw the same player. I didn't see anything different. So he thinks he's getting 2021 DJ Moore. I just don't.

Was he watching 2021 tape? He's like, I could, He has, dude, he's looking great.

Also, this scheme is awesome.

Like, I— It's a good name to bring up.

It is a good name because I think as a show, we're lower than consensus. The situation freaks me out. What I would, to calm you, Jason, or just to be like, this is why I'm thinking what I'm thinking. Stefon Diggs in terms of yardage was coming off of the highest yardage of his career before he got traded. to the Buffalo Bills. His receptions were, were way down, but he was up at 18 yards a reception. Like it was a very solid year for Stefon Diggs. That last year for DJ Moore was literally his worst year ever.

Yeah.

And I'm, I'm on team Ben Johnson. And it's like, if Ben Johnson isn't figuring out how to maximize you, That's really strange. You know what? I can't imagine it's a Ben Johnson.

You wouldn't expect Joe Brady.

I don't like you, DJ Moore. It's like, no, he's a guy who they—

didn't he sign an extension like before the season?

So yeah, something, something had just come up where he got more money. I can't recall the timing of it. But so that's—

are you guys in or out on DJ Moore?

Like personally, I'm in the same boat you are where I can see it going both ways. I mean, where is his ADP?

I'm looking.

Wide receiver 22. And I've got him at 25.

He's like a 5th rounder.

Jason at 26. We're all below ADP.

He's a 5th rounder on Sleeper and Yahoo at a 6th on ESPN.

I'll tell you what, it's transitioned from being completely out on him to me actively trying to stack him with Josh Allen when I can.

That is where I end up. If I ever am in a mock or in some kind of draft where I do end up with him, which is rare, it's always, I've never drafted him without having Josh Allen on the roster.

All right. The next player we are afraid to be wrong about, Mike and I picked the same position.

You guys picked pretty much the same type of like the same archetype player.

I have been the, I've been on this, the downside of the Jaxson Dart argument all offseason. So that is the name that I'm most afraid to be wrong about a 23-year-old running quarterback. And part of the argument against Jaxon Dart is an inexact predictive situation where like you can't predict injuries. Like that's a part of the factors of the Jaxon Dart equation for me. He's already been in—

You can predict that Jaxon Dart will get hurt.

You can predict foolishness in the back and he's already been in the blue tint this preseason. So, you know, you can blame everything else, but it's him too. Like he, he holds the ball a long time. He likes to make plays happen and he runs with some reckless abandon that caught it, caused him to be in the blue tint in half of his starts last year. I don't want to over or underthink the situation. I have been more nervous about it. Now the irony is I'm looking at ADP. I'm basically pretty much at ADP. I'm even a little, I'm a spot higher. Like You know, you guys are much higher, or Jason is, but I just am very worried about anything on this offense working out to start the year. Neighbors, it seems more and more likely he won't start the season, certainly not with a full snap cannon at 100%. And I am worried about starting the year well. You've got an interesting Dallas matchup in week 1 that should be really fun. But then you go and play the Rams. Stay healthy against Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald in week 2. Is Cam Scadaboo going to be the main guy?

Are they going to have to rotate this thing? But I'm afraid to be wrong about him.

I mean, you, there are certain players that it's like kind of funny because a lot of these players like Jackson Dart is another player I'm afraid to be wrong on. We're on, you know what I mean? Like on the opposite side because I'm kind of bullish. I like the shot in the 9th round of a young mobile quarterback who was basically scoring 20 points a game without neighbors last year in a rookie season over and over and over. But like, I'm not— once upon a time he was on the list on the board for a my guy. And I went back and I watched all the tape and I looked at the schedule and I dug as deep as I could and I go, nah, nah, dude. I'm going to draft him. I'm going to—

Well, he's getting cheaper and more affordable. The last 2 weeks he's dropped a lot in ADP. For all these, I don't know why, just, you know.

People afraid.

People afraid.

People are smart.

People have been compelled by my arguments. They're so compelling.

Yeah, it's—

I like to use the same word twice in arguments, which kind of reemphasizes it.

Like Shakespeare over here. Yeah. Yeah, I think he could turn into a league-winning type, but my goodness, he's like, he's just not a good enough quarterback.

It's kind of, he fits the category of could bust, could be fine, and could be great. And there's those guys, they're all players we're afraid to be.

Kind of like a Justin Fields. You know, it's like, man, he can score a lot in fantasy. He can run like crazy, but is he a good enough quarterback?

Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. And I don't know if—

I know he's a better quarterback than Justin Fields already.

The Nagy, Harbaugh, tough division.

Keeps nagging at you.

It does.

Thank you. Very compelling.

All right. The, the player I'm more concerned about of just what has been coming out of Washington camp, Jayden Daniels, quarterback of the Washington Commanders, because the question is, what if the rookie year was just right place, right time, and it was pure magic? And that is the best that we are ever going to get. from Jayden Daniels. You know, the, we've, I was saying in fantasy football, I guess he's going as the QB6. So it's not like we're just elevating him right back to being a top tier fantasy quarterback. Because I think he was like QB2 or QB3 last year. But the vibes out of Washington have, they've been very bad. You know, we brought up this report from Nicky Zavola of that quote, this is the worst I've ever seen the Commanders offense in years. Inoperable offensive line.

Yeah.

Okay. That's a, that's a gigantic red flag. I know he's mobile, but when your offensive line is trash, it's just not helpful. It's very, very difficult to, to come through for fantasy football. Last year, even when healthy. Yeah. Jayden Daniels was running a ton. The floor, you know, it was there, but the passing numbers, they're, they were not spectacular. He was, you know, we had a couple 20-point outings. We love to see that. But in terms of him versus the field, he was a top 12 quarterback in one of his healthy games. He was QB6 in that week against Chicago, a defense that, that people had some real fantasy success against. Just a little bit concerned. You have— it's a whole new offense, right? You had like his first couple years, you had Cliff Kingsbury and they're bringing a very college-friendly type of a system. And now the reports are, well, Dan Quinn wants more pro. We want to be under center more, which I understand. Like when you, when you take your quarterback and you're just playing in shotgun, it really nerfs a lot of what you're able to do with play action. with actually just running the ball.

And then you have— and David Blough, it's his first time. David blah, blah, blah. It's just, what if he's just not a good play caller?

Even if he's decent, even if he's decent, is he as good as Cliff Kingsbury for fantasy? Probably not.

So check out Philadelphia. Philadelphia had marvelous fantasy football pieces for us to draft and enjoy. 1-0, Kellen Moore comes in, everything is great. Kellen Moore leaves, we get a new OC. It's bad. Like first-time OCs can, it can turn upside down. And I'm just starting to get a little bit more concerned about maybe we need to hedge here. And then on top, his top 2 weapons are Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs.

What's wrong with that, Mike?

Years gone by. Yeah, that's fine. We have not had 2 wide receivers who are both 30 or older finished 1 and 2 on a team in receptions since 2010 when Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson did it.

But the run game will, will kind of open up things for him. You know, don't you think?

What are you talking about?

Behind the offensive line with Bill and Rashad White.

So just, I'm starting to get a little bit more concerned that we're like, I'm still drafting Jayden Daniels.

Are you?

As I was, as I have been.

But where are you at? Because I'm a little scary. I find myself, we haven't really talked about him much. I'm glad you're bringing this name up.

He's just been ranked really high.

He's been ranked really high. He's been ranked really high in my rankings. Like I, you know, you stat people out and you go, this is the type of ball he plays. This is what he's going to end up having to run for in this offense, which is helpful for fantasy. And the stats say what the stats say and he's been decently high. But every time I'm on the clock where you're drafting him and it's been lower than, I mean, there's been the argument of this year, these really elite type of quarterbacks, get them in the 6th round.

Yes.

So in one hand, that's like, that's really great. Jalen Hurts, Daniels in the 6th round, fantastic value. On the other hand, it's like, I, I keep passing on them because there's players, you know, Jameson Williams and Ja'Darian Price and You know, Rome Odunze, it's like, I like those guys and I'm not sure that the Commanders offense is going to be like, I can see them collapsing.

Right.

These are not questions for quarterbacks that we have anointed great. All the problems and objections to, to Jayden are not things that you necessarily are bringing up about the great producers at the position. We just don't have a long enough track record With Jayden. And so some people are saying, yes, he is that and he'll be fine. And adding Diggs is a huge improvement as old as Diggs is. On the other hand, some people are saying, well, maybe it's not proven yet. A great easy schedule, right? This was the— this is the Drake May thing where like Drake May has his breakout, but the schedule was juicy. And that's what it was for Washington 2 years ago. Last year, part of the problem is when he actually played, he wasn't that good.

Yes.

And so it's like, but he didn't have weapons. He didn't have Terry McLaurin for most of those games. He obviously didn't have Diggs.

I will say he had an old Deebo and I can make the argument for Jayden Daniels to be good.

We're just, no, I know we're bringing up the like, uh-oh. It's, is he an elite quarterback? If he is, he will be fine.

I find myself not drafting him for a lot of the reasons you're outlaying and kind of just passing on him for other options. However, when you look at like what wins a championship, it's those game-breaking guys with extreme upside. And there's an obvious path for Daniels. Like if you told me at the end of the year, he's number one, it's like, of course he could rush for— there's only 3 guys in the league this year that have a legitimate capability of rushing for 800 yards. And he's one of them. And if you If you end up rushing for 750-plus yards and then you're a good passer, if those 2 things come together, like what happened for Lamar Jackson twice in his career, you just win. And so, you know, his risk is going to be higher. Yeah.

Because he is just like Dart. He could get hurt. He's, he got banged up multiple times last year and they were like, if you, if you run recklessly, you're at risk.

He's tinier than Dart. Dart's got at least some meat on the bones.

And you know me.

When he was, when he was healthy is what we're saying. If he was still running, he was on a 17-game pace in his healthy games of 742 rushing yards.

Yes.

That's still an absurd number. But it was weeks 3 and 4, he was out with a knee injury. Then week 8 was a hamstring injury. And then the rest of the year it was an elbow injury.

Oh yeah. He came out and popped his elbow out running.

It's, you know, Of course, we're not trying to freak people out of like people have drafted, people got drafts coming up. We're just, I'm moving that risk rating up.

No, it makes sense.

The league-winning upside is still there with Jayden Daniels. You know, I always say it's about how much risk are you willing to accept?

And could he be a quarterback you draft and you have to find another quarterback?

It certainly could happen.

All right. We'll take a break and we got a couple other names, maybe get into some mailbag. All right. We won't spend as much time on these names, but another player I'm afraid to be wrong about is Saquon Barkley. I think Saquon is one of those guys that you're like, yeah, you know, I remember the very end of the season. He finally had a long breakaway run. Remember the Super Bowl year? He had a bunch of them. But it was not the beginning. It was the end of the season where you got that breakaway run from Saquon and you said, that's that same guy. You know, last year he had 13 carries inside the 5 and only 1 rushing touchdown. That seems like some positive regression on the way. New offensive coordinator who Jason likes.

There's part of me that's like, I don't know if he's any good, but he was a good bit.

The Saquon Barkley equation is interesting to me. I just feel like he could be one of those guys where you're like, like if he competed in the top 5, it's not a shock, but we're all kind of not in that same top tier category this year.

Yeah, it is tough. They're moving Hurts under center, which should really help Saquon Barkley. Then they are, they're much healthier on the offensive line. which should really help Saquon Barkley. And he's Saquon Barkley. He was the number 1 running back 2 years ago. But I haven't drafted him anywhere. I mean, have you drafted him?

I have not.

Yeah.

I mean, because when you write in his range is the, like, I either have to take, if I want Chase Brown or Ken Walker, I take them over Barkley. And I have done that every time.

His name carries a lot of weight. We were on, what show was it?

We were doing a spot with Greg Rosenthal.

Yeah. Greg Rosenthal, where he made the argument to take him 3rd. 3rd overall in fantasy and I'm just not there.

I mean, it's possible though.

Yeah. No, I get it. That's why you're afraid to be wrong. Here's the bonus mention for me of the player I'm super afraid to be wrong because I am O-U-T on a player that's so good and it's Tucker Kraft. Like Tucker Kraft going in usually.

You should be afraid.

Yeah.

I would be very afraid. I'm terrified. You know, he's a—

because you in fact are wrong.

I don't think so. I mean, obviously I don't think so, which is why I'm not drafting him anywhere. He was that dude. He was the tight end 2 in fantasy in points per game before his injury. In those first 8 games, he led the team in fantasy points per route run, targets per route run, yards per route run, first downs per route run, yards after catch per reception, red zone targets. Like he was awesome. But then he got it towards ACL and was like, hopefully he's ready for week 1. We've seen him run in straight lines and whatever. And then there was the comments of like, Well, he'll, for the first half of the year, he'll kind of be on a snap count and then they'll let him loose the last half of the year. He costs a lot in drafts. He is not cheap. He's not like, oh, because of the ACL, I'm getting a 10th round pick. I would, I would do that. You're giving up a prime running back or wide receiver to take a player who is coming off an ACL who has never done it. Like it's still a projection and I'm just not willing.

Dog.

Agreed. Agreed. That's why I'm terrified. I'm afraid to be wrong.

If he can—

I hope I'm wrong because Tucker Kraft being awesome and healthy is good for the NFL, good for fantasy football, good for Jordan Love. But I'm out.

If he can only run a straight line, that's in fact good enough for Tucker Kraft.

Mike, what's one more name from you?

I'm going with Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars. It's just we would all have it completely upside down and there's just going to be so many sad people. of we're all placing our bets on the Jags and Brian Thomas feels kind of like the last, the last one.

Yeah.

We're not even allowing wide receiver 33 of success going in the 7th round and everything is Parker Washington. The part we did a—

I saw Parker Washington. So let me say this real quick. He in a, in a $100,000 buy league, Parker Washington went in the 3rd round.

Yes. We did our—

That's how in.

The, this week's Dynasty pod, we did some, some bold predictions for Dynasty and Kyle, who hosts that show, he put out a call and he was like, let's see what the Foot Clan's feeling. People are sweaty for Parker Washington. He's like, it's just, it's so many people are calling their shot for Parker that it no longer publicly feels bold because everyone's just saying it's going to happen.

Could you imagine? at the end of the season 2 years ago, the end of the season where Brian Thomas Jr., the first round drafted wide receiver who finishes, I think he was the wide receiver 7 his rookie year and was unbelievable, like 1,400 receiving yards. If you told me that Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington both are healthy from here on out, this is not an injury issue. And in the near future, oh my gosh. Oh my gosh. One is going to be the darling and one is going to be just this, you know, undraftable loser. Wild that that flip has happened.

Is this a— is this the they both peed in the fountain at the same time situation?

Oh, you little— getting freaky on a Friday?

Yeah. Do we got a body swap happening?

Yeah, I think so.

There's no other good explanation.

Like, do you guys remember the beginning of last year and like Parker Washington was doing stuff and everyone was like, Parker, get out of the way. Stop ruining things for Brian Thomas.

Nobody drafted you.

And now everyone's going to be like, Brian Thomas, get out of the way.

You're right. All right, let's do some mailbag.

Mailbag presented by Paramount Plus.

All right. First question coming in. By the way, you can go to the website, thefantasyfootballers.com, click that submit a question button or dial our voicemail hotline 302-464-TFFB. First question coming in from Matthew Brooks says, my guy overreaction question mark? Jason, how high is too high to draft Garrett Wilson? 2-3 turn question mark?

So the reason he's a my guy is because of where he's going in drafts, right? Like the fact that you can, you can actually get Garrett Wilson right now on Sleeper at the 4.10, on Yahoo at the 5.01. It's just outrageous value to me. I'm not taking him over players like DeVonta Smith, who's on a much better offense. Or George Pickens, you know, who's, you know, a top 12 wide receiver last year on a better offense with a good quarterback. And so that's who you'd be having to take him over at that 2-3 turn area. So yeah, I think, I think that's probably too high. It's, it's not that he couldn't end up being a good pick, but everything in fantasy is, is odds and probabilities. And I would say that there's a higher probability that George Pickens or DeVonta Smith is better. better than Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson, I am very in on and very bullish that he is well better than where he's being drafted right now this year. So yeah, I would say that's just a smidge too high, even though he's a good player.

All right.

Will writing in on Instagram, who would be your 4th my guy?

Honestly, it will be our fantasy MVP, I would assume, which is coming up on Friday. I know mine.

I'll throw a name that I know won't be my fantasy MVP.

Oh, I got another one too.

I'll throw Breece Hall out there. I'm pretty bullish on Breece Hall.

Love that.

Love that pick.

Because the Jets always work out.

I would be Tyler Warren. So much love to Loveland and Warren's around later.

Not enough war for Warren.

No, I really, really like— he was in consideration. I thought the entire offseason that Tyler Warren was an obvious my guy.

And, and you haven't come around on, on Alec Pierce yet.

I think Alec Pierce is going to be very good at the Alec Pierce role.

You said that so unconvincingly. It was not going to be the Alec Pierce role.

Mine was supposed to be too much money for that.

Well, here's the thing. No matter what, I'm right.

It was supposed to be Tyler Shook and then Jordan Tyson.

It's the Alec Pierce role going. What's that?

Nothing. I'm trying to have a show and you're like, I'm just going to have a side conversation into the microphone.

We were in the middle of talking about Alec Pierce.

We were done.

I guess I was done.

I can't say I did not hear what Mike said.

Yeah, that's why I asked him what he said because he was talking in the middle of our conversation. Oh man. Flipping it. Anyways, what were you saying? I wanted it to be— No. All right. Now I really am curious and I know you're never going to say it.

You already know what the answer is. It's been— it was on the whiteboard forever. It was supposed to be Tyler's show. And then Jordan Tyson went, owie, owie, owie.

That's a good question from YouTube. Ryan wants to know, are you still picking Puka with a top 4 pick? This is— no, let's be clear. Just because Puka wasn't placed on the commissioner's list yet does not mean that Puka is 100% safe. There were some rumblings this morning. I don't know. Look, I am not going to pretend I know everything that has happened with Puka Nacua. But this morning there was a video that came out from his ex-girlfriend. She didn't make any specific allegations, but she mentioned the last year. I mean, I don't even know how much I want to talk about this, but it basically, they were together for 4 or 5 years. It was great. But in the last year and a half, she was in what she described as an abusive relationship and that he changed overnight.

Yeah.

Which seems to match all other actions external of that relationship in the public and everything he's been doing. He does not have an extension with the Rams.

The fact that he doesn't have an extension with the Rams is—

There are, behind the scenes, there have to be questions.

How in the world does a player that good, so important to your Super Bowl, you know, odds-on favorite champion roster, not have an extension for a player like that?

I mean, this is one of the best wide receivers performance-wise in the NFL. And the NFL has come out and said, you know, players like Puka Nacua, Rashad Bateman matters. Still under review by the National Football League. Am I nervous to take him at— I mean, we have a draft on Monday that I'm pretty sure he's going to go number 2, but it's nerve-wracking to do that. This is not— this is not, oh man, it's not Rashad Bateman where he's the last pick of your draft and you're like, whatever happens happens. This is very good chance if you take Puka and something happens, your season ends because losing your first— I mean, not necessarily, but you lose your first. It's like CMC's injuries. You know, it's going to be massive.

You have a gigantic hole that you have to dig out of.

So then this is why the question is, would you still take Puka at 4? Because that's where the questions really start. I would personally, as of this moment, knowing whatever we don't know, I would rather draft Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra, JSN. And then I get really questionable on the Jonathan Taylor, James Cook like that. So I'm pushing him back down the first round for me.

Okay.

But it's not, not too far. Would you, would you guys rather draft the Jonathan Taylor, James Cook tier of running back or the Puka?

I would take Puka because I want to win the league. And I think Puka's, I think Puka's worthy of being the number 2 pick in the draft.

Sure.

Mike?

I think at this point, that moving him behind JSN and Amon-Ra is probably just the— like, those guys are awesome.

Yeah. You know, if all people play 17 games.

Yeah. You're— it is— it's probably in terms of like fantasy tiers, it would be a step down. But with a pick that high to still get the production from that you would expect from JSN or Amon-Ra. I think it might be worth it.

The Rams are not deep at wide receiver and they haven't added anybody. And that is one of the only saving graces I have right now. They haven't even added a Caleb Johnson equivalent at wide receiver unless you count the trade for Tutu, which maybe you can.

I count Terrence Ferguson.

Yeah, I know you do. You're a little too— I mean, you maybe not too, but you're just very—

I don't know.

You're very Fergie-licious.

This reminds me of when Jason loved Mark Andrews and we were like, what are you talking about? And then Mark Andrews was like the tight end 2 that year.

TBD. He hasn't done anything yet, but the opportunity for a great offense, and I think he's a really good player, but he's in a— I mean, it's dumb. It's a last round dart throw hopeful projection.

One more. Okay. Sorry.

No, I'm just saying it's not something you can like easily say, well, obviously this is coming. There's just a pathway that you could see how it comes in. If it comes, it's a really high upside pick.

I like this one just real quick, but from off of YouTube from Nick, am I crazy to take AJ Brown over JJ or CeeDee?

Not crazy. No.

No, I don't think so.

Jack wants to know best tips for the Megalobowl as we close things out.

Well, I mean, this is a tournament style play. So genuinely, I don't look at You know, matchups and, and things like that.

I mean, you got to, you got to win more individual.

But let's be honest, like the top 6 out of every 12 teams get in the playoffs.

Okay.

You just have to not win, but you have to make the playoffs. So I am looking at the schedule in the, you know, in the fantasy playoff weeks. Look at that week 17, you know, I guess week 8, 18, right?

Well, they're very competitive. I mean, when are you saying to look at those?

I'm saying even in your draft.

Oh man.

Being like, if you want to win the actual league, you've got to go for extreme high upside. You've got to have a few players that really break out. And obviously you can't only fill a roster with high volatility. You're not going to, you're not going to get to the championship for that. But you do need a handful of those like nuclear options.

Running backs seem to go higher in Megalobowl drafts. So do my guys. So you're competing with a ton of Foot Clan people. Something to keep in mind with those drafts starting up on September 4th. You can get in there, megalobowl.com. That was the mailbag presented by Paramount Plus. Paramount Plus is the streaming home to the NFL on CBS all season long. We'll see you Sunday. All right. That is going to do it for today's episode of the Fantasy Footballers. Make sure you follow us on X at the FF Ballers and good luck on all the drafts coming up. Our final mock draft Draft episode is tomorrow for the other 50% still drafting and an MVP episode on Friday. Goodbye.

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @theFFballers.