Transcript of Fareed: How regional leaders are attempting to upend the international order

Here's my take. As tensions spiral in the Middle East, keep in mind that this is only one of three arenas in the world where regional or global players are trying to upend the international order. In Europe, a war continues to rage, and in Asia, a dangerous new dynamic is at work. Taken together, they define the most dangerous period internationally since the end of the Cold War. In the Middle East, the current tensions are rooted in a tussle battle between Iran and America's allies, Israel and some of the Gulf States. Iran, being a relatively weak power, has used asymmetrical means through a series of militias allied with it: Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, and groups in Iraq and Syria. It has supported and supplied for years. Even before Hamas's attack last October seventh, these groups had kept up a steady stream of small boar attacks on Israel, and on occasion, the Gulf Monarchies. The effect of this pressure has been real, keeping Israel and the Gulf Arabs on guard and the region on edge. Since October seventh, tensions have made normal commerce much harder. About 70 % of vessel traffic has been diverted from the Red Sea region as of June.

Many airlines have stopped flying to Israel for the time being. Emirates, the Dubai-based airline, has recently canceled some flights to Iran and Iraq. Another Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities would send oil prices skyrocketing. If the current Middle Eastern order is under pressure, so is the one in Europe. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a traditional war of aggression, using the means Russia has aplenty, traditional military power. But it's also an effort to upend the Western-led European security system that is underridden and dominated by the United States. Were Russia to succeed in its aggression, that would significantly erode the the entire structure of stability in Europe, created after 1945 and expanded after 1989. Putin would press to have Russia's imperial ambitions accommodated in places like Georgia, Moldova, and perhaps the Baltic States, and even Poland. In Asia, we are also facing a rising threat that has gone somewhat unnoticed. Robert Manning, a veteran American diplomat, writes these words in foreign policy. I have worked on the Korean nuclear in and out of government over the past three decades, and the Korean Peninsula seems more dangerous and volatile than at any time since 1950. Ever since the failed summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, the latter has adopted a policy of greater bellicocity.

In 2021, Kim announced a major expansion and modernization of his nuclear arsenal. In January, Manning points out he announced the end of a 70-year-old goal for country, reunification with South Korea, which had always placed some restraints on North Korea's potential military actions. Now that Kim has designated South Korea as the principal enemy, ordered the destruction of a reunification monument built by his father and shuttered the agencies that planned for reunification, this could signal a greater willingness to risk war. In Asia, more broadly, China has been applying pressure, mostly economic but also military, to rival or even replace America as that region's dominant power. Those tensions are, of course, greatest around Taiwan, but exist in several hotspots from the Philippines to the South China Sea. If all this As we're not troubling enough, there are now increasing indications that this axis of revisionist powers is coordinating and helping one another. The Economist points out that this quartet of chaos is actively swapping weapons, supplies, and most importantly, know-how. Iran and North Korea supply Russia with drones, while Russia shares information with Tehran on how to jam drones and disable GPS systems. It sends seized Western military weaponry to Tehran, so that it can analyze the kits.

The US government estimates that 90% of Russia's microelectronics imports and 70% of its machine tools now come from China, much of this being dual use, meaning it can be used to make weapons. The US and its allies must try to thwart these efforts at coordination, but this will require that they themselves be unified in their policies. Above all, they should try to drive wedges between these countries, which have long histories of suspicion and tension among them. China, in particular, is somewhat unlike the other three nations. Those rogue regimes actively seek to foment instability, largely because they have to lose from disorder. China, on the other hand, benefits immensely from economic trade and interdependence. It has risen to power thanks to globalization and peace, guaranteed by the current international system. China's assistance to Russia shows that Beijing is willing to unsettle the world order, but not necessarily upend it. The last time the United States faced an alliance of hostile powers during the Cold War, it effectively sowed discord within the communist world, maintaining good relations with countries like Yugoslavia and Romania, and above all, dividing China from the Soviet Union. But in a Washington that today sees the world in black and white, I wonder if we have the diplomatic skill and acuity to pursue a sophisticated strategy like that one.

Go to cnen. Com/fareed for a link to my Washington Post column this week.