Transcript of Can Europe’s missile defence system defend against Russia’s latest hypersonic missile? | BBC News

It is unlikely that viewers of this series will know much, if anything, about the small village of Regiekovo in northern Poland and the anti-missile base, which is now firmly in the crosshairs of the Russian forces. According to the Kremlin this week, it is now a priority target for potential neutralization. That warning came just a few days after President Biden authorized the use of long-range American missiles against targets inside Russia and the first reported use of the British Storm Shadow. So tonight we're going to focus on what we know about Reggie Covall. We have more on the intermediate-range Ballistic missile that Russia has been trialing, code-named Oresnik. And we'll get some news on the unidentified drones that have been buzzing UK bases where American forces are stationed. And as ever, Mikey Kay is here, 20 years in assault helicopter pilot. He's a strategic military planner, or was, and a reminder that he runs these sessions as he would. Where are you still wearing the uniform? Good evening. Good evening. We'll talk about Poland in a second, but let's start with Storm Shadow, because we reported on the use of it last week, but there's been very little follow-up on how many of them were used, what was hit.

So what have you been able to find out?

Yeah, well, it was a big week last week for policy decision-making by the US. We first had the decision to use DeepStrike Takums, and then Two days later, it was UK made Storm Shadow. Important to note that the Storm Shadow was launched off the Russian made Ukraine operated SU-24. And it's the only jet that Ukraine has that has been modified for the Storm Shadow. We reported last week that strikes had gone in. We didn't know where. We suggested and we spoke about commander control sites, high-value asset airfields. What it transpires, having spoken to some sources this week and done a lot of research, that the The objective of the strike was a Commander Control Center that wasn't just being used by the Russians, it was being used by the North Koreans as well. And indications tell us that there was a very high-ranking North Korean general that was injured in the strike. There were three senior North Korean officers that were killed in the strike. And effectively, the strike was in a town called Mariano. If you can go slide. So you can see Marino in the red up on the map there, it's actually closer to the Ukrainian border than Kersk.

And when you draw a line directly from Mariano to the Ukraine border, it's actually only 35 kilometers. So you might ask the question, why was Stormshadow used? Why wasn't Himars has used, the high mass version that the US have given Ukraine has a range out to 80 kilometers. It's well within that range. But the key bit that we spoke about last week was Stormshadow is a bunker Buster. It has that ability to not only strike a target, but strike a target that is deep underground. That's That's exactly what that command center was.

Just briefly on that, one of the reasons they said that they'd given authorisation for the use of these long-range missiles is because in their view, Russia had escalated by calling in the North Korean troops. Was this in one respect a signal? Perhaps they knew the North Koreans were in this bunker.

Yeah, and all the intelligence indicated that at the time there was 50,000 combined North Korean-Russian troops, and the significance of the Kershk region is projecting forward to January the 20th after President-elect Donald Trump is in power. It's basically to give Zelensky enough of an edge to be able to protect his troops that have secured 1,000 kilometers, circa 1,000 kilometers in the Kursk region, to use in those negotiations that are likely to occur after Trump comes.

Well, that is going to be a key part of the negotiation, isn't it? As a result, we get more saber rattling from the Kremlin. What is Russia's potential course of action in response?

Well, naturally, you would expect Russia to respond, and they have. Slide. What we're going to see here is a map showing Poland, and as you've already alluded to, Regikovo. The Foreign Ministry spokesman, Maria Zarecova, talking about the US Anti-Ballistic Missile System that is based in Regikovo, has said, The missile defense base in Poland has long been included among the priority targets for potential neutralization. That's the intent. The air base itself, the system itself, the AGIAS Offshore, is what it's called, has been in development since 2016. The Russians will have been tracking that. At the end of last year in December, it became operational, and then July this year, it became fully operational, and there was a big ceremony. Sorry, take a step back.

What is it that's very special about this base then? This missile system that's on it, what is special about that?

Think of it, Christian, as Israel's Iron Dome. It's a multi-layered system. We're going to slide actually. We've got a really nice graphic here that shows what it comprises. On the left-hand side of the screen, you effectively have a satellite that can detect a launch of a ballistic missile. The whole EGIS offshore system in Poland was designed to ameliorate targeting by ballistic missiles. You've then got an early warning radar. So a satellite detects it. An early warning radar based in Turkey then tracks the missile. And then you've got interceptor sites. You've got an interceptor site in Poland, you've got an interceptor site in Romania, and that's augmented by US destroyers coming out of Spain. So effectively a layered approach.

But hang on, that's a defensive system. It's not an offensive system. So why would that be a priority for the Kremlin?

It's a priority for the Kremlin because that system protects the The priority of Europe. It protects its population, it protects its urban centers, it protects its forces, it protects its economic infrastructure.

The suggestion from the Kremlin would be we take that out and then...Vulnerable. Everything is vulnerable.

Everything is vulnerable. That's why it's pretty high on their target set. That's obviously where the saber rattlings come from, but it does beg the question.

You say saber rattling, but if you're on that base right now, you're not standing down, are you? You're not taking any risks.

No, they'll be on a pretty high DEFcon. The highest? Yeah, I don't know. But I mean, when the foreign minister from Russia basically indicates that that's a high-priority target, you're probably going to be on the highest alert. Then that is going to be in tuned with what's called IADs, integrated air defense systems all around Europe. Yeah, everyone's going to be looking at the radars and there isn't going to be much room for tea breaks.

I'm presuming that if they were going to hit… Well, What is the capability that they have to hit that base? Is it this new missile?

The new missile has been tested recently. So bearing in mind this has been in construct since 2016, the whole provenance of this base has been against Russian ballistic missiles. What's come to light recently in an attack on Duprono in Ukraine, it's about halfway between Kharkiv.Dinepro.

You mean?Dinepro.Dinepro.Dinepro.Okay..

Yeah.between Kharkiv and Crimea, and it's located roughly to the west of Donetsk. If we can go slide, the Oresnik, which is what we're talking about here, is a new hypersonic missile. It's got a range of about 5,000 kilometers. The kicker is it can actually have a mean peak speed of about Mach 11, between Mach 10 and Mach 11. That's around 8,500 miles an hour. So it's incredibly fast. What we're seeing on here is effectively the warheads. It has six warheads, which has the capability then to split into a further six warheads.

It's like a Roman candle.

It is like a Roman candle.

Does it stand off and it fires the missiles in?

It comes in from height, and then obviously before it impacts, the warheads will separate, and then it can deliver onto any strategic targets. Now, Putin claims that this particular missile is hard to target. But I think the only people that will know whether it's really impossible to target is the operators of a aegis shore. That's yet to be known. But I think what's really important is that the launch of this, Ereshnik, was from the Russia-Kazakhstan border. That's about 650 kilometers inside Ukraine, so from the Ukrainian border, which means that if it's It's got a range of about 5,000 kilometers. This is all speculative at the moment as they try and figure out this newly developed missile and what it's capable of. But that effectively would give it the ability for Russia to target high strategic assets anywhere in Europe, but unlikely the East Coast of the States. I think that's important.

Just a final thought. I've seen everybody's piled in on what this Ereshnik missile is and whether it's just a repackage missile capability that they already had. I saw one comment saying, same wine, different bottle. Whatever it is, it is true, is it not, that the US government have had a look at it? From a strategic point of view, you're able, when you look at that, to take a peek inside the Russian Armory.

Yeah, it's showing the cards, if you like. The cards are close to the chest. They've shown the cards now. Analysts and experts and scientists are going to be all over it. Obviously, that's going to beg the question of the first question they're going to ask is, does aegis offshore, based Poland, have the ability to be able to neutralize that should it be used. But I think the big question as well is that we shouldn't make the assumption that Putin is going to have a large arsenal of Ereshnik missiles. It's newly developed, and He will have a huge inventory of ballistic missiles as well. There's certainly a question to be asked of what inventory does he have, what is the likelihood of him using it, and what are the consequences now of potentially targeting bases, NATO forces, outside of the Ukraine territory which could open, obviously, courses of action for the NATO.

Well, that's a pretty sobering development. That's the conventional threat we've discussed, but there's been a lot of talk this week about the cyber threat. We've had the cabinet office minister, Pat McFaddon, at the NATO Cyber Defense Conference. Let me read you what he said. He said, In the last year, Russia has widened its targets to a number of NATO members and partners. What threat are we talking about?

I mean, cyber is a well-established part of Putin's playbook. The UK have already acknowledged approach that Russia has targeted its media, it's targeted its telecoms, the political democratic institutions, and also more importantly, or very importantly, is the power infrastructure. So that's already going on. Russia is already doing that. The question now is, how does the UK, knowing that there's this unconventional component which could start really entering into the equation, how does the UK build resilience across those components, especially coming into winter, the power grid is going to be vulnerable? How does the UK develop resilience from Russia cyber attacks on its power grid?

In fact, I think you need to talk specifically about the power grid being a potential target. So obviously, That's priority one. The other more visible threat that we've seen this week were these unidentified drones that were flying over RAF Lake and Heath, Mildon Hall, Feltwell, bases where there are US assets. What have your people been telling you about I've been speaking to sources.

I think it's important to note that no one has yet knows that what has been occurring across these US bases, based in the UK, based in East Anglia, has been attributed directly to Russian sabotage. And also, we've spoken about drones a lot. We had a whole program dedicated to drones, and we very much focused on what are called Kamikaze drones, which a user actually directly attacked. These aren't. These are using basically to disrupt, to sabotage airspace. We can go slide. What we should see here are the locations where these swarms of drones, these numbers of drones have been identified. You've got REF Mildon Hall. That's a key US base. That's the home of the US 48th Operations Group. It operates the F-15 Eagle, two squadrons, two squadrons of the F-35. So that's all the attack component. Ref Lake & Heath, you've got the RC135 tankers, you've got C-130 transport aircraft, you've got the Sea stallion helicopter. So again, you disrupt that airspace by putting drones into it, then you're going to have to start giving the pilots, the crews that are operating these, additional standard operating procedures. And what that effectively means is more reserve fuel capability.

So if they're coming back to REF Mildon Hall, Really?

So it has a knock-on operational impact.

Yeah. So if they've got drones operating in the airspace, they'll close that down and you'll have diversions.

Hang on. They have all sorts of kits on these bases for incoming threats. Are you telling us that they don't have kit to stop smaller size drones, which, as we know, are the new threat.

They do. Historically, radars, which are the key component, are tuned in for bigger aircraft, aircraft with larger RCS, Radar Cross-sections. What we're seeing now is that those radars that have been used historically are struggling, if not finding it impossible, to find effectively what are drones that can be less than 250 grams. The REF, the REF Regiment, predominantly, there are other aspects of the UK military that are operating the system.

Are they talking about smaller than a drinks bottle, maybe?

Exactly, about this size. Even smaller than that, yeah. What's really important for the UK defense is to get ahead of that and starting designing and using and developing an evolving technology that can detect it, and they have. The system is called AUCUS. What that system basically allows the REF Regiment to do predominantly is through the radar is detect. The radar is geared a low flying object, a very small object, and an object that has a very low RCS, Radar Cross-section. Then what they're also doing is they're building up a capability to enable to take that out. Now, the US Marine Corps, we spoke about this, they've got CLWS, which is Compact Laser Weapon System. That hat as an ability to use a laser to actually target, identify, and take out the drone. The electromagnetic attack is what the UK are going with. They've got it, they're revolving it, they're trying to understand how to work it better. But there is definitely, when we talk about the evolution of drones, the Ukraine has the most evolutionary and sophisticated set up for making drones right now. You've got this huge steep curve of the way that drones are evolving, and the curve is much less for the counterdrone capability.