Transcript of Week 12 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to NFL Daily, where if we're 15 and three over the last few weeks, we're going to hunk about it. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Westley podcast studio with my friend who is on fire right now, Cynthia Breelen. Let's go. How are you? Good. I think you need to do this more just a little bit of a tip for your brand. When your pics are hot, just talk about it a lot. When they're not, just don't say anything because we're hot right now. When I said 15 and 3, I went back, I did the numbers. I did the addition over the last three weeks combined. Heck, yeah. We are 15 and 3. You went 3 and 0-Let's go. In week 11 after I had a couple of undefeated weeks, but I stayed on the winning side, so I'm happy enough. We're both 19 and 14 on the season, so that's pretty good as well. Let's keep this Hot Streak going. Let's do it. We pick three games against the spread each and every week. The last couple of weeks, we've been on the same side, and those have done well. We'll see if that happens today.

You give me your first pick.

I mean, if something is working, I don't think that you stray from it. I actually believe, and my math actually supports, picking against the Cowboys again.

She's doing it again. I struggled with this one. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Explain to me why you're going to.

Okay, so there's a couple of things here. The line is large. It is 10.

Ten and a half for Washington at Home.

Right. Okay. Washington's at Home. However, there's a couple of things here that are a really big problem for the Cowboys, namely the run game. They have Brian Robinson Jr. Back. They have Austin Echler, who, by the way, the Cowboys also give up the most receiving yards to the running back position. It's 12.7 is the average in terms of Yack per catch to running backs.

They're great at that. Echler is special.

That is what Echler does. When I'm looking at this opportunity here, then Cliff Kingsbury, I know he knows the narrative about him. The narrative is, After nine weeks, the blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Things go downhill. Yeah, okay. Five and a half points less per game. I see that. The giveaways, they double. Also see that. You know how you stop Anyways, run the football. You know what Shane Daniels does really well? You know what Brian Robinson Jr. Does really well? Runs between the tackles. You know what all of these guys do? They keep it on the ground. I think also with Zerts there, and we know that Zackert is someone that Cliff Kingsbury really loves to target. Okay. I'm in.

Maybe you've convinced me. I don't know. I left them off my list. We've been rolling over the Cowboys. We're saying they're the worst team in the NFL. Watch that Monday night game, and it wasn't close in the end.

I want to know another clue. Yeah. If they're not even playing Trey Lance, one way you could interpret this is that they think that if they play him, things could get even worse from losing the locker room standpoint. That's one way of interpreting it.

That's because he's bad. I don't think they trust him for whatever reason.

Do you think it's worse than what? Anyways, my point is, if that's what's going on, if we're at a place where we don't even want to try, what is that telling you?

Everything about this team is a absolute and total mess. And yet there is something about when I saw that ten and a half line, I was like, it just felt too easy this week. If I had to choose a side, I definitely have Washington. I have them written down. They're potentially in the box. Maybe they're my third pick. I'll think about it. Whatever.

I don't care.

I like playing this game live. I'm here for it. There was something about it that I thought, this Cowboys defense is playing a little bit better lately, and everyone's going to think they just roll. Could it just be eight or nine points of division?

I actually think most people think they won't. I think that this is a tasty snack because I think Cowboys fans want it back in on the party.

I might just do it just to show my faith in you and the system that we've been on. When I'm doing well and picked been on a good streak lately. You have. If you go check out Game Day View, they keep track against the spread as well. We're both well over 500. I'm like over 200 over 500 now for the season. That's good. The one game that I really was sure about this week that I was like, Oh, I got to take that. It was actually Titans plus eight and a half. I like the Titans this week. It is giving me Broncos against the Chiefs a couple of weeks ago vibes. Now, it's two lesser teams, but I just don't think the Texans are You're worthy of being favored by that much against anyone, especially not a division opponent. I know it's a new coaching staff, so we can't take too much away from the division thing, but I don't have many rules in terms of my picks, but I do think you have to earn being that big of a favorite. You have to earn it. At some point, you got to accept Texans fans and people that are hoping for something different, like myself, like my son Walker, who has CJ Stroud in fantasy.

It's like, at some point, you got to look at the numbers.

Do it for Walker, CJ. Come on.

You got to just recognize he's only had two top 12 fantasy weeks all season. At some point, you got to accept the team that we see every week. That is their team, and that's just offensively. It's not the team that we imagine the Texans to be. It's not the team I want. They were actually making a sweat out that Cowboys game just a little bit. I never thought the Cowboys offense would get there, so I always felt okay, but the Texans offense was bad. They're funky. They're 24th in the league on offense right now, third on defense. I really trust their defense, and that's why they'll probably win this game. But to me, they're similar to the Titans. Titans, 28th in the league on offense. This is DVOA. 11th on defense. Titans stop the run. You make the Texans one dimensional. If they're able to stop the run against Joe Mixon, the pass rush then gets to C. J. Stroud. They're in the same division. I'm not saying the Titans are going to win, but I do think they'll cover eight and a half. It wouldn't shock me if the Titans won this game in the end.

I don't believe in the Texans right now.

It's just a weird thing about the Titans that they have these good metrics, but then they allow every single time an opponent gets into the red area to score.

And they never cover either. That's a problem.

I'm just like, okay.

I know. I still like it, whatever. No, you don't have to like it. It's fine. This is the one I felt good about, and that's fine. It was like last week, the one I felt best about, I was wrong. That was my one L. You got to go with how you feel. I know I know it hasn't totally shown up in the final score, but I promise you, Will Levis has been a better version of Will Levis the last two weeks. Maybe the best version of Will Levis we've seen. Taking a lot of sacs, so he'll probably do that on Sunday, but not making big mistakes and making good throws when he is throwing it. I just think this is going to be a game like all the other Texans games in the division against the Jaguars, against the Colts that they just sweat out until the end, and it's a final position game. I like getting the eight and a half. Give me your second pick.

My second pick? I'm sticking with a theme of being bold this week. You know which team hasn't covered all season long? The Chiefs. You know who's going to cover this week? The Chiefs with 11 points. That's a lot. I don't care. I think this is what happens when you lose a game. People are like, Oh, no, a trap game. Is it over? Are they not? What's going to happen? Oh, no. Patrick Mahomes. Oh, my God. What's going to happen? No, this is where the Kareem Hunt and maybe even Isiah Pacheco situation, being able to run against the Panthers defense. Yeah, DJ Wunim was good against the Giants, and they've had a week off. Okay. It's still the same team. Bad defense.

Yeah.

The defense is not great. It's decidedly ungrate. Even though Chuba Hubbard is coming off a great game, even though 11 is a lot of points to surrender, I don't care. I think this is where Patrick Mahomes says, You don't think I can play on the East Coast? You think it's blah, blah, blah, blah, blah Give me one 35-point game.

This is the spot to do it. Great matchup. Also a tough matchup for Bryce Young on the other side. Maybe the pass rush for the Chiefs isn't great, but the secondary will mix it up quite a bit. They'll send some pressure at him. I don't have a strong take, but I'm definitely on your side on this one, so I like that. I'm going with your line, speaking of a heavy favorite as my second pick. Like I said, this week, even though I've been feeling it lately, the numbers This didn't speak to me as much this week. This was a solid number two, and I'm still scrambling about number three. The reason why I went with minus seven and a half for the Lion is not just because they're one of the best teams we've ever seen through 10 weeks. At this point, we can just say that, right?

I can't.

You're making that Jim from the office look at the camera there.

I know. I just did.

I know Aaron Shatz's numbers. I don't know if those are competitors to yours, but they have historical data of their DVOA through 10 weeks. They're the number three so far all time behind the '07 Patriots and one of those Washington teams in the '90s. Okay, so that's number one. But the reason why I really like the seven and a half was I think the matchup is really bad for the Colts. How did the Colts win last week? Really difficult throws.

Anthony Richardson played lights out. This was the best game he's played in his career, 272 passing yards in his first time having a completion percentage over expected ever.

Okay, that's That's how they won. And it's because that's how they had to win against the Jets because their run game wasn't making it happen against the Jets. Jonathan Taylor had one of his worst games of the whole season. Anthony Richardson quietly had one of his least successful games on the ground in his career. Now, they hit the design runs on the goal line, and that's massive. They are going to be a really good red zone team, which is why I think the number is as low even as it is. But you think about the matchup, I think the one way you could beat the Lions is a running game that can help support. But their fourth in success rate against in the last month, they're a really good run stopping team. This is a team that likes to play a lot of man coverage. I think you're going to have to beat them through the air, again through low percentage passes. You're probably going to have to be playing from behind because the Colts defense is nothing great. They just gave up 27 to the Jets. They couldn't run on the Jets. I think the Colts are okay.

This isn't going to be Jaguars versus lions or anything. I'm thinking it's more like a 34 to 18 game.

You think pretty darn close to... I mean...

No, that was 35 points last week. I just mean in the end, maybe it's a 10-point game in the fourth quarter. You're not sitting back and just riding this thing out. But I think the lions have too much, and you get Richardson having to pass so much. I think that's a bad recipe.

The one thing I will say about the lions and what happened with the Jags is I'm looking at this team, and I think one of their strategies is to work out some of the kinks. So I think part of that last week's game against the Jags was to... I mean, sorry, against the Texans prior to that was to get Jared Goff back in rhythm or whatever you want to say. And so that's why I think they kept being aggressive. In this game, there is something that they could look to knock the rust off a little bit, and that's Jared Goff. All nine of his interceptions have come against zone defense, and nobody plays more zone than the Colts. So I agree with you. I actually think the lines could keep scoring in that case, just because to me, that's an opportunity.

That's what they do.

There are no words because it is not something I'm used to in my lifetime, but yeah, the lines are good.

I mean, they're not just good. Cynthia, for those who don't know, is a diehard lines fan, and I've seen her struggle.It's.

Really hard.So many years.It's.

Really hard.It's really cool. It's a tricky spot they're in now because now they're like...

I just wish this were week 18.

Right. They're not quite like where Serena Williams is, where she said, I'm only a story when I lose, which is a tough place to be. The chiefs are in that place. The lines aren't quite there, but at this point, anything short of a Super Bowl is a little bit disappointing, which is a tough spot to be. But you just got to get to the One Seed. Bom. Com. Bom. They're really handling success well. I think they cover 7-F. What is your final pick?

Okay, so my final pick is Minnesota minus three and a half. I just think this number isn't right. I know in Chicago. I'm aware that the bears almost knocked off the packers last week. I understand that they have a new offensive corner. Hey, anyone heard that before? But I also know that the Minnesota Vikings and Aaron Jones are sitting here being like, ain't no way we're going to get knocked out of this playoff wild card situation. Ain't no way we're going to get knocked out of this playoff wild card situation. No way we're going to let the packers back into this situation. Three and a half is one of the numbers, one of the lower numbers on the entire week. This is a weird week with a lot of big numbers. So I felt a little bit more comfortable at just a little bit over a goal as opposed to the Denver minus five and a half, which I also really like, and it was between those two for me. But I think Minnesota, they win by at least four. I think that it's their defense and the fact that their defense is very, very good against the run, whereas Chicago's defense especially without Andrew Billings, you can run all over these schools.

So this is a situation where I just think Minnesota, they outcoach on both sides of the football, the bears.

That's a great call, the coaching matchup, because Thomas Brown, I think, did a great He did a great job. The first week as his offensive coordinator. But it's a whole different matchup having to go up against this Brian Flores defense. I think they're going to be ready for the scrambles that Caleb Williams of. They'll actually have a week on tape of what Thomas Brown did, which will help them out. I think I'm going to go with you. Let's go. Okay. Let's go. I love that. Let's be together because you made up my mind. I was debating between two games at the end. What was your other game? Which was either Minnesota or just a gut I feel that the packers are a better team than the 49ers, and that would have been my fourth pick. I know for a fact you're not on that side. No, I'm not.

But it doesn't matter.

But you helped make up my decision that my third pick will also be Minnesota minus three and a half. I've been fading the bears all year. It's mostly worked. Last week, it very much did not work. They were outstanding on offense. Their defense was problematic. I do think the Vikings will be able to run the ball a little bit on Chicago and potentially get a lead because you're not going to have to score a ton so they can be patient with the running game. I do worry a little bit about Sam Darnold against some of the coverage mixes that they can show you. The bears have a pretty good pass defense, but their pass rush has not been nearly as good since the first month of the season when they were getting it done. Not really sure how they were getting it done, but they were getting it done, and they haven't been as good. I was debating. I was leaning Green Bay. I was thinking about just doing Washington just to be your friend here. I like that, but I didn't love it. But now we can be aligned because we're here together minus three and a half.

One other point on that.

I think Green Bay could have also been... That Chicago game could have been a little bit of a trap game because they could have been looking at the 49ers this week. Obviously-we're coming off a buy, though. But yeah, you're right. I don't care. You know that Lefleur is not going to let… The Lefleur-Shanehán thing is, They're all in the same tree, blah, blah, blah. But I do think it's possible that they could have been looking just a little bit ahead as opposed to focusing on the bears quite as much because what you'd seen from the bears in weeks prior weren't as scary.

Right. And we tape this before we really know the injury report and the injury situation. And part of the reason I was in on the packers are some of the injuries for the 49ers. But that's uncomfortable to bet on before. We really know it. Bosa, purdy is not 100%.

If Bosa doesn't play, if George Kittle somehow doesn't play, then everything will be different for how I feel about this game.

Kittle is supposed to play. Right.

But like, supposed to. Everyone, just so you know, and I've said this to Kyle Shane in his face. It's fine. He's a lying liar who lies. He doesn't need to tell us. There's no legally bound contract saying that he needs to tell us by this amount of time. He does exactly. Friday, the injury report, he says what he has to say. 90 minutes before the game, he submits his little sheet. Christian McCaffrey is a great example of it. Week one, we're like, Oh, he's playing. He's playing. Then all of a sudden, it's like, Ha, ha, ha, IR. Yeah. Okay, but he didn't do anything that was illegal or not within the bounds of the rules. But again, the lying liar who lies strikes again, or he could.

Wow. It's okay. He knows. I know you hit on something when I saw you got a reaction there in the studio back there when you called Kyle. We will not-Okay, fine.

He's a fibbing fibber who fibbed.

We will not clip that as the social.

No, don't clip that as the social. Although it's not like Again, he knows. He thinks it's funny. He's not doing anything wrong.

Okay, so to-I would lie, too. You took Washington, the commanders.

Washington.

For at least the third straight week, you were going against the cowboys.

Fated on those cowboys.

We did it together a couple of straight weeks, and I agree with you. It's just not one of my top three. You're also going to go Chiefs. They're favored by 11 in Carolina. Then we're together. We're taking those road favorites, the Vikings in Chicago. My three picks, I like the Titans as an underdog, plus eight and a half. I like the lions as a favorite on the road. Minus seven and a half road favorites. What a world we're in. What a world we're in. I'm with you on Minnesota. My little extra picks for what it's worth. I do like the packers this week. Sometimes you just got to pick the... I just think- You got to take a side, man. I just think they're a better team. Their offense, to me, is the one group in this game that I really think is close to or is at.

Okay, but do you trust their defense?

No, but here's what I would say.

I just wanted it to be clear.

No, they don't have a good pass rush. But the 49ers, they're not the offense that I expected. They need too much of Juan Jennings. Like, Juan Jennings is their whole offense. It's not the Christian McAfree. Their defense, whether they have Bosa or not, not what I expected, not special. Packer's defense, not in love with them. Too reliant on the turnover. But that Packer's offense, man. That Packer's offense, man. I want to see you stop them, San Francisco. That's the part of the game that I really trust. Agreed. I think they get to 25 I got 28 points, and I just think it's going to be too hard.

Do you think... Wait, hold on. If Purdy is playing, if Bosa is playing-I'm still in on the packer. If Kittle is playing, you're still in on the packer. Just making sure.

Just want to understand. But Minnesota is my third pick to be official.

Can you say it right, please? What?

Minnesota. Minnesota?

Yeah, Minnesota.

Yeah. Minnesota. I'm with you. I like the Commanders a little bit, and that's about it. I do like the Seahawks, but I wouldn't even put them in the box. I just think they'll win.

I think the Seahawks are going to win, too. My only hesitation is I have done really poorly picking against the Cardinals.

I've been on the Cardinal side all season, and that's why I'll just stay away from that one. Let's cross that one out. This was a pleasure, as always. We're not competing. Even though we're tied, well, we are competing.

Of course, we're competing.

But we're also-We're trying to win for the listeners. We elevate each other. I've noticed the listens are going up on this thing. People are completing. I think it's because they know we're giving them winners, Cynthia. Love it. Check Cynthia out, her YouTube channel, Num game.

You'll know the why behind all of these.

That's growing each and every week, too. Check us out on NFL game debut. That is it for our week of shows at NFL Daily. We will be back on Sunday night. Sunday. Patrick Claibon, and of course, nick Shuck.

I am really tons of momentum on that game.

Looking forward to that one. Yes. When the lion liar who lies is lying, you know football is back.