Transcript of Russia-Ukraine 1000 Days, Hong Kong Activists Sentenced, Trump And Your Money

It's been a thousand days since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The war has devastated Ukraine and transformed life in Russia. How much further could it escalate as Moscow warns that US missiles could trigger a nuclear response?

I'm Leila Fadel. That's Michelle Martin, and this is Up First from NPR News. In Hong Kong, dozens of pro-democracy activists are sentenced to prison under a national security law that critics say has crushed dissent. Why was a political poll consider a threat and what message is China sending with these verdicts?

President-elect Trump is laying out big promises for tax cuts.

We will have no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security benefits.

Sounds appealing, but could his plan blow a hole in the federal budget? Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

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Today marks a thousand days since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbor, Ukraine.

The war forced the displacement of millions of Ukrainians from their homes and led to the death and maiming of hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers. But the war has, of course, also brought immense changes life in Russia.

In Paris, Moscow, correspondent Charles Minks is going to talk about this. He's reported out of Russia since the beginning of the conflict. Hello, Charles.

Good morning.

Charles, I take it the question isn't whether Russia has changed as a result of the war, but how much?

The truth is this war has transformed Russia completely. Everything from its geopolitics, where once Russia sought acceptance, albeit often angrily, from the West, now it has military alliances with rogue states like Iran and North Korea. Also, look at its domestic political culture. Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, was never a liberal democracy, but the repressions and your total crushing of dissent since the war started make the earlier Putin era seem comparatively free. Then there's the economy. Today, Russia is the world's most sanctioned state, but those are largely Western-imposed sanctions. Big name Western companies like McDonald's, Apple, Starbucks have all left Russia. But the country has pivoted to new markets and new trade partners, often in China. The result is that what you eat, what you buy, What you say, read and watch, it's all changed.

That sounds disorienting. Do we have a sense of what Russians think about this? Is there any way to know if they really support the war and how they feel about all the changes it's brought?

Well, the government claims the Russian society is united behind the war effort. Some state polls will show the same, although keep in mind the repressions that we mentioned. Through reporting, I've certainly met people who clearly buy into Kremlin propaganda that this is a war against fascism, that Ukraine is run by neo-nazis, and they see it as a continuation of the Soviet Union's fight against Nazi Germany in World War II. For example, here's tape from a conversation I had with a man named Andrei Nikolaevitch, who I met on Red Square last year. We have already had once this victory in 1945. We expect peace, but peace should be with victory over the Nazis, new Nazis who occupied all the country of Ukraine. Do you worry about Russian forces killing other people, though, like innocent civilians, too? No, it's all fake because we don't kill human beings that are peaceful. We kill only the soldiers. You know, Michel, that said, let's remember, tens of thousands of Russians fled the country in opposition After the war, thousands more have gone to jail for civil disobedience. In conversations I've had just day to day, people who aren't government critiques or politically active tell me they just wish the whole thing would end.

Of course, now President-elect Trump will be returning to the White House. He's promised to negotiate with Putin. He says he will quickly end the war. How is this seen from Russia? Are there prospects of peace seen from Russia?

Well, I think it's fair to say there's a surging confidence in Moscow with Trump's suggestions he could end military support to Ukraine. President Putin this morning, formally approved changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, expanding the list of threats that might warrant a nuclear response from Moscow. It was a clear message to President Biden's decision this week to allow Ukraine to use American long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia, and I think one that raises the question of whether Putin has any intention of compromise going forward.

That is NPR's Charles Mains in Moscow. Charles, thank you.

Thank you.

Hong Kong's government, which is controlled by China, sentenced 45 pro-democracy activists to prison sentences of up to 10 years each.

Yeah, they were found guilty of subversion of state power this year in a landmark court that governments, including the US, have condemned for criminalizing free speech and political activity. The activists were sentenced for their roles in an unofficial primary poll held in 2020.

And parents, Emily Fang, covered that primary in the months of anti-government protests from Hong Kong leading up to the arrests of these activists. She's with us now to tell us more about it. Good morning, Emily. Good morning. Would you first tell us about this primary poll? Why is it considered subversion?

Well, they're essentially being sentenced today for a subversion, for trying to win an election. They wanted to pick the most popular candidates, and so they held this poll that you just mentioned, and 600,000 plus people took part. That poll was supposed to pick the most competitive candidates, and it was a watershed moment. It was a moment when this pro-democracy coalition really felt like they had a chance of actually winning a legislative seating Hong Kong, and they were well-organized and they enjoyed popular backing. But that's what is being called subversion now under Beijing's national security law, because this coalition could actually have a legislative seat. Ultimately, we know what happened. Half a year later, nearly everyone who helped organize that poll or was a candidate in that poll has been arrested.

What does this tell us about the political direction of Hong Kong?

It tells us that what was once this lively, often rambunctuous civil society in Hong Kong is now entirely leaderless because almost all of the most influential activists there are now facing years more behind bars. Among those sentenced today was Joshua Wang. You may recognize him When he was just a teenager, he was leading big protests demanding direct democratic elections back in 2014 and what's now called the umbrella movement. Well, he's facing multiple charges, but today he just got another four-year, eight-month sentence. Another person who got sentenced today is Benny Thai. He's a former professor who really conceptualized the umbrella movement, a veteran protest organizer, and he got the longest sentence today for organizing that 2020 primary. He is facing now a decade behind bars. So today's sentencing really shows how worn down these activists are as well, because among the 45 sentenced, about three-fourths of them pled guilty because they wanted to reduce their sentence times. They've been waiting almost four years behind bars already. Wow.

Has the Chinese government responded in some way to this?

They stayed quiet today, but their line has been unequivocal from the start. In Beijing's view, the people arrested under this national security law are troublemakers. They are criminals who incited violent protests that diminished Hong Kong as a global financial center. They've applauded the security law that's nabbed these 45 people and said it is a much needed measure to return Hong Kong to order.

Given all you've told us about just the level of repression there, is there any way to know about how people in Hong Kong are feeling about this? Might there be any more protests?

There will likely not be protests. We've seen what happened to people who have continued to protest. They are mostly now in prison. So likely no public defiance, but perhaps some private defiance. Gwyneth Ho, who rose to prominence as a journalist and then became an activist, she was one of the people sentenced today with a seven-year prison sentence. Supporters of hers released a statement on Facebook in which she actually expressed pride at what she had achieved. She said, For these values, it was worth to dare to act, and that's why she, quote, Dared to suffer.

That is NPR's Emily Fange. Emily, thank you.

Thank you.

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised to put more money in Americans' pockets by cutting their taxes.

Here he is at an event in Raleigh, North Carolina, the day before the election.

My plan will massively cut taxes for workers and small businesses, and we will have no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on social security benefits.

What will a second Trump presidency mean for your taxes? It might mean a lower tax bill, but it could have drastic consequences for the national budget.

Here to explain all this This is Laurel Wamsley, who covers personal finance for NPR. Good morning, Laurel.

Hey, Michelle.

Okay, so Trump is making a lot of promises about taxes. What's the most important thing for people to know?

Well, the biggest thing is that Trump is very likely to extend the big tax changes that he pushed through in 2017. That was a pretty sweeping law, and it did lower most people's tax bills. For households that, say, make $60,000 to $100,000 a year, extending these tax cuts means that those folks get to keep about $1,000 extra a year. But wealthy people saw the most benefit for those who make more than a million dollars, it means reducing their taxes on average by about $70,000. And there are also big corporate tax cuts as part of that package, too. But all these cuts are expensive. Extending the 2017 law could increase the national debt by more than $4 trillion over the next 10 years. And that really matters. Less tax revenue coming in means cutting government programs, for example.

Let's talk about some of Trump's other proposals. For instance, no taxes on tips. What impact would that have?

Yeah, this is a tax cut that made big headlines, but it only impacts a small part of the labor market, only about two and a half % of all jobs. And many tipped workers, over a third of them, earn so little that they already don't pay federal income tax. So now there aren't too many details on how exactly all of this would work, but eliminating tax on tips would probably lead to some squirrely effects. For example, say I hire a guy to trim the tree at my house, and that's something I usually pay him $500 to do. Now he might tell me that it costs $300 to trim my tree, but that he expects a $200 tip, knowing that he won't be taxed on that portion of the income. We could see tipping proliferate into places we haven't seen it before. And employers could also attempt to reclassify employees as tipped workers and drop their pay to the tipped minimum wage. For that, the federal minimum wage right now is $2.13 an hour. Like the 2017 tax cuts, this would blow another hole in the federal budget. This one would cost us about $100 billion over 10 years.

Trump also says he would stop taxing Social Security benefits. What effects would we see from that?

Well, for most current retirees, it wouldn't have any effect. Only about 40% of people who get Social Security pay federal income tax on it. But again, the effects of this change would be huge, and it would make things worse for those of us who are still years away from drawing Social Security. That's because a big chunk of those taxes on Social Security go straight into funding the Social Security Trust Fund. So eliminating these taxes means reducing the money that's available for Social Security. And that's a program that's already at risk. If no one pays taxes on their Social Security benefits, that fund is going to run out sooner, perhaps two years earlier than it's already on track to do.

That is NPR's Laura Wamsley. Laura, thank you.

You're welcome.

That's up first for Tuesday, November 19th. I'm Michelle Martin.

I'm Leila Faudil. For your next listen, you should consider Consider This from NPR. President-elect Trump suggested that in his second term, he'll take on the news media with more than just words. How might he do it and how will the press respond? Listen to Consider This from NPR.

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